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Author Topic: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5, 2008  (Read 116748 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5, 2008
« on: January 31, 2008, 06:37:41 AM »
This is for the next Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe.

It's still a ways away, but there is growing interest regarding possible severe weather between the Ohio Valley and the Gulf Coast.

SPC 4-8 day forecast issued this morning:

Quote

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0330 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008
   
   VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE
   DEVELOPING LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES AND ITS EVENTUAL
   MOVEMENT INTO THE CNTRL/ERN STATES.  AS THIS TROUGH EVOLVES...THE
   SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL BUILD NWWD WITH SEVERAL
   DAYS OF SLY RETURN FLOW LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST THE SERN 1/4 OF THE
   COUNTRY.  ECMWF/GFS/GEFS HAVE COME MORE IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE
   ORIENTATION AND TIMING OF THE LONGER WAVE FEATURE...WITH THE ECMWF
   MORE AMPLIFIED.  TIMING OF EACH INDIVIDUAL SHORTER WAVELENGTH
   FEATURES IS MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT WITH A BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND
   PROSPECTS FOR A QUALITY WARM SECTOR...THE SVR WEATHER THREAT WILL
   LIKELY INCREASE ON DAY 6...05 FEB ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
   OZARKS...LWR MS VLY...MID-SOUTH...AND TN VLY.
   
   ..RACY.. 01/31/2008
« Last Edit: February 06, 2008, 10:14:09 AM by Thundersnow »

Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #1 on: January 31, 2008, 09:36:13 AM »
I've been watching that possibility for a few days now. Models have been going back and forth with the stronger solution phasing the lows. They have been moving back toward a stronger solution most recently. I think most activity would occur in LA/AR/MS attm.

I'm keeping an eye on it... hope to get a chase day out of this one if it doesnt degenerate into a squall line.
Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

KJ4CPT

Online Eric

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #2 on: January 31, 2008, 09:54:16 AM »
Yeah, I just found out about this little episode.  According to other forums, there is increasing concern about it.  I don't know all about the nuts and bolts that go into systems like this, but if the CAPE values reach 500 into KY and OH, dewpoints 60-70 reaching north of us, daytime temps 60-65 around us, things could get interesting to say the least.
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Offline WXRocker

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #3 on: January 31, 2008, 10:41:44 AM »
I'm going to be very interested in how all of this pans out.
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servocrow

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #4 on: January 31, 2008, 12:03:34 PM »
The latest HWO from OHX mentions severe weather possibility for Feb 5.

Quote
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER ON FEBRUARY 5TH.

Offline Reneezelle

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #5 on: January 31, 2008, 12:42:22 PM »
I will Drive!!!!!  ;D ;D ;D
Arise, eat food, and let your heart be cheerful... -1 Kings 21:7

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Online Eric

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #6 on: January 31, 2008, 01:12:04 PM »
Quote
I'm keeping an eye on it... hope to get a chase day out of this one if it doesnt degenerate into a squall line.

I'm mannin' the camcorder!!!
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline WXRocker

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #7 on: January 31, 2008, 02:24:18 PM »
I've got the digital camera!!
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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #8 on: January 31, 2008, 02:58:45 PM »
I've got WeatherWorx mobile threat net  ;D

Offline WXRocker

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #9 on: January 31, 2008, 03:09:33 PM »
I've got WeatherWorx mobile threat net  ;D
Sounds like a disease. ;D

Anyone got a portable ham radio?
Quote from: ERIC
We specialize in @$$hattery.

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Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #10 on: January 31, 2008, 04:05:52 PM »
I'll pump the gas.  ;D

Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

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Online Eric

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #11 on: January 31, 2008, 04:12:33 PM »
So I guess all we need now is a vehicle...any volunteers??
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Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #12 on: January 31, 2008, 04:18:47 PM »
Methinks we're gonna need a bus with this many people. LOL

Definitely will need more than one vehicle if everyone is serious. I always take my truck because I can go offroad if I have to. ;D

I can see everyone wimping out on chase day though. That's why I usually end up going alone.
Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

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servocrow

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #13 on: January 31, 2008, 04:27:16 PM »
..... That's why I usually end up going alone.




"I'm a loner....a rebel."

Online Eric

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #14 on: January 31, 2008, 04:30:55 PM »
Methinks we're gonna need a bus with this many people. LOL

Definitely will need more than one vehicle if everyone is serious. I always take my truck because I can go offroad if I have to. ;D

I can see everyone wimping out on chase day though. That's why I usually end up going alone.

Dude, if your serious, I'll ride shotgun with the camcorder.
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

 

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