Winter 2017-18

[wfrogge]

Just remember that there is no such science behind "we are due". 

[JayCee]

No, there isn't, but weather patterns do repeat in some form or fashion over time.  That's why so many forecasters use "analogs" to come up with forecasts.  Whatever happened before, will happen again. It may not be a carbon copy of a past weather event, but the overall weather pattern can be similar. 

[schneitzeit]

Alright y'all. I drafted my predictions for the contiguous U.S. in an MS Paint doc. All comments, questions and criticism are welcomed.

In terms of snowfall, here are my predictions. They're a little pessimistic, as I think much of this winter will be too warm for us to cash in on major events. I think we will too often be caught on the warm side of major systems. Mother Nature is like... "Oh, there's some moisture in Tennessee? Here, why don't I just make it real warm. No snow for you!  "

Tennessee

Clarksville: 10.0"
Tri-Cities: 9.0"
Nashville: 6.5"
Knoxville: 5.0"
Jackson: 4.0"
Chattanooga: 3.0"
Memphis: 2.5"

North Carolina

Asheville: 12.0"
Winston-Salem: 6.0"
Charlotte: 4.5"
Raleigh: 4.0"
Wilmington: Trace

Kentucky

Louisville: 21.0"
Lexington: 19.5"
Paducah: 13.0"
Bowling Green: 11.5"

Deep South

Little Rock: 3.5"
Atlanta: 1.0"
Birmingham: 1.0"
Columbia, SC: 0.5"
Jackson, MS: Trace

Midwest

Cleveland: 67.0"
Minneapolis: 55.0"
Milwaukee: 44.5"
Chicago: 42.0"
Detroit: 36.0"
Des Moines: 34.0"
Columbus, OH: 31.5"
Kansas City: 31.0"
Indianapolis: 27.5"
Cincinnati: 24.0"
St. Louis: 22.0"

Northeast

Buffalo: 85.0"
Boston: 46.0"
Hartford: 37.0"
New York City: 34.5"
Pittsburgh: 30.0"
Philadelphia: 25.5"
Washington: 16.0"

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Post Merge: November 05, 2017, 01:39:47 AM [ Guests cannot view attachments ]

[BRUCE]

Alright y'all. I drafted my predictions for the contiguous U.S. in an MS Paint doc. All comments, questions and criticism are welcomed.

In terms of snowfall, here are my predictions. They're a little pessimistic, as I think much of this winter will be too warm for us to cash in on major events. I think we will too often be caught on the warm side of major systems. Mother Nature is like... "Oh, there's some moisture in Tennessee? Here, why don't I just make it real warm. No snow for you!  "

Tennessee

Clarksville: 10.0"
Tri-Cities: 9.0"
Nashville: 6.5"
Knoxville: 5.0"
Jackson: 4.0"
Chattanooga: 3.0"
Memphis: 2.5"

North Carolina

Asheville: 12.0"
Winston-Salem: 6.0"
Charlotte: 4.5"
Raleigh: 4.0"
Wilmington: Trace

Kentucky

Louisville: 21.0"
Lexington: 19.5"
Paducah: 13.0"
Bowling Green: 11.5"

Deep South

Little Rock: 3.5"
Atlanta: 1.0"
Birmingham: 1.0"
Columbia, SC: 0.5"
Jackson, MS: Trace

Midwest

Cleveland: 67.0"
Minneapolis: 55.0"
Milwaukee: 44.5"
Chicago: 42.0"
Detroit: 36.0"
Des Moines: 34.0"
Columbus, OH: 31.5"
Kansas City: 31.0"
Indianapolis: 27.5"
Cincinnati: 24.0"
St. Louis: 22.0"

Northeast

Buffalo: 85.0"
Boston: 46.0"
Hartford: 37.0"
New York City: 34.5"
Pittsburgh: 30.0"
Philadelphia: 25.5"
Washington: 16.0"

(Attachment Link) :Post Merge: November 05, 2017, 01:39:47 AM (Attachment Link)

nice job there... may be still tad high on the snowfall... but well done
Post Merge: November 05, 2017, 05:38:28 AMi killed  3 big red wasp yesterday after work... flying around my work shop... in november?   maybe they know something...

[StormNine]

https://www.wxrisk.com/more-hints-reasons-why-i-am-skeptical-of-mild-la-nina-winter-narrative/

More updates and this could put my December forecast at risk if it verifies.  The Greenland Block if it verifies will help lock the cold air on our side of the world, which we did not have at all for the last several winters.   

The -PNA may focus the intense cold over the Northern Plains/Rockies, which is one of the reasons I had the worst of the cold over to the northwest of us.  If the PNA was to go + or even neutral, and the -QBO could force a Greenland Block and the -NAO/-AO then we are going to have a rockin time. 

[schneitzeit]

I like this uncertainty. I miss the thrill of following a winter storm. If we're lucky, maybe one month from now we'll have something to watch for 

[JayCee]

https://www.wxrisk.com/more-hints-reasons-why-i-am-skeptical-of-mild-la-nina-winter-narrative/

More updates and this could put my December forecast at risk if it verifies.  The Greenland Block if it verifies will help lock the cold air on our side of the world, which we did not have at all for the last several winters.   

The -PNA may focus the intense cold over the Northern Plains/Rockies, which is one of the reasons I had the worst of the cold over to the northwest of us.  If the PNA was to go + or even neutral, and the -QBO could force a Greenland Block and the -NAO/-AO then we are going to have a rockin time.

Interesting that both the NAO and AO could be heading deep into negative territory soon.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[Clarksville Snowman]

Bring on a blockbuster winter. 

[schneitzeit]

So, so excited. In my opinion, nothing beats a December snowfall. We haven't had one in Tennessee since 2010.

[EastTNWX]

So, so excited. In my opinion, nothing beats a December snowfall. We haven't had one in Tennessee since 2010.

Dec 21 2016 the Knoxville area received between a trace and 0.5" of snow, NWFS showers in cold air produced some accumulations for most in the area.  That said I would also love a REAL snow this December.  It looks like something is trying to brew around Thanksgiving...something to watch!

[JayCee]

Dec 21 2016 the Knoxville area received between a trace and 0.5" of snow, NWFS showers in cold air produced some accumulations for most in the area.  That said I would also love a REAL snow this December.  It looks like something is trying to brew around Thanksgiving...something to watch!

Forecasts continue to show the NAO/AO going toward some of the lowest readings in a long time around the Thanksgiving timeframe.  PNA is forecast to go from negative to neutral.  All this *could* add up to something interesting around Turkey Time.  Even if it doesn't stick, snow falling on Thanksgiving is welcome and festive.  It will give me a reason to avoid a nap after the feast. 

[snowdog]

Euro showing a huge ridge right up west central us, serious cold looks to stay over Alaska.

[cleTNwx]

Too soon to start crossing fingers concerning the GFS look around the 27th of this month? 

[snowdog]

Too soon to start crossing fingers concerning the GFS look around the 27th of this month?

Too soon when the Euro doesn't agree with the pattern look of the GFS.

[Hank W]

12z GFS has the first big fantasy storm of the season around hour 252. Don't think it's anything to get excited over with zero consistency, but at least it is that time of year!