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Author Topic: Winter 2013-2014  (Read 193433 times)

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Offline Adam

Re: Winter 2013-2014
« Reply #30 on: September 28, 2013, 09:43:02 AM »
I honestly do not know how one can accurately predict a winter 3 months in advance. I know there are long range models, but we can hardly trust model data a week out let alone a month. Our winters are directly based off the amount of snow we get. We could get one big snow of lets say 6 or 7 inches and that would be a pretty big winter to me. No matter what the pacific jet or any of the factors that play into the long range forecast are, there are always anomolies. You could have the worst winter pattern out there and still get a big snow with an ULL. Let's just all calm down and enjoy the fall weather and football season!
AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2013-2014
« Reply #31 on: September 28, 2013, 09:43:30 PM »
I'm enjoying the fall, the football season not so much.  Looks like Butch and the best staff in America are who I thought they were (to steal a line from Dennis Green). 

And I agree with you on the long range stuff.  It's fun to look at and speculate on but it really holds very little actual value. 

Offline Woodvegas

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Re: Winter 2013-2014
« Reply #32 on: September 29, 2013, 10:48:29 AM »
I ran a precipitation composite anomaly analysis a couple of years ago for Nashville's top 10 snowiest winters and interestingly precipitation for the winter season (Dec. to Feb.) was below normal. If someone gets bored and wants to confirm that precipitation is on average below normal during TN's snowiest winters feel free to do so and post it here. I suppose it could be explained by the fact that when we have a lot of artic air around it tends to be on the dry side with an occasional good snow when moisture does become available.
"Luck enters into every contingency. You are a fool if you forget it -- and a greater fool if you count upon it." -- Phyllis Bottome

Offline Matthew

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Re: Winter 2013-2014
« Reply #33 on: September 29, 2013, 01:55:10 PM »
I get tired of hearing predictions every year.  The weather will do what it wants to.  No matter what the past records say or those goofy teleconnections!   Just,look at the tropics.  Every year going to be so many storms!   Whatever.  All I know this has been one of the best summers/year I can remember.  Plenty of rain, cooler temps (lower electric bills!!!).  This years fall colors should be awesome!  Only down is all the dang burn spiders everywhere!   Hate spiders and snakes!  Yeah it has been quite in the severe wx also but hard to complain when so many clear blue days and cool temps have BLESSED us this year!  I love snow and hope it is a great year for it but let us all just take what is given and not complain.  Could be much worse we all know.

Offline DocB

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Re: Winter 2013-2014
« Reply #34 on: September 29, 2013, 03:28:04 PM »
Got my early taste of winter already. Flew into Zurich this morning and enjoying the snow in the Swiss Alps. Now I'm back in the city and while its cool (12C) it feels oh so good.

Offline Eric

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Re: Winter 2013-2014
« Reply #35 on: September 29, 2013, 10:02:22 PM »
I'm enjoying the fall, the football season not so much.  Looks like Butch and the best staff in America are who I thought they were (to steal a line from Dennis Green). 

And I agree with you on the long range stuff.  It's fun to look at and speculate on but it really holds very little actual value.

 ::)
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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2013-2014
« Reply #36 on: September 29, 2013, 10:08:48 PM »
got to admitt i am growing little concerned bout the persistent gulf of alaska low that keeps on hanging on... though its still time for change, but that is a pesky pattern thats hard to disolve. that would put us under ridge while the west would be troughy thus creating a positive nao... thus far the pacific looks like trash

Offline Cody

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Re: Winter 2013-2014
« Reply #37 on: September 30, 2013, 09:48:20 AM »
I am going to say the 33-32 degree line will be further north this year and we will be stuck around (35) when most precip arrives.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Winter 2013-2014
« Reply #38 on: September 30, 2013, 10:05:51 AM »
I ran a precipitation composite anomaly analysis a couple of years ago for Nashville's top 10 snowiest winters and interestingly precipitation for the winter season (Dec. to Feb.) was below normal. If someone gets bored and wants to confirm that precipitation is on average below normal during TN's snowiest winters feel free to do so and post it here. I suppose it could be explained by the fact that when we have a lot of artic air around it tends to be on the dry side with an occasional good snow when moisture does become available.
I've noticed this in the past as well. The cold air is more important than the moisture in most cases. That being said, if you really want a blockbuster double digit snowfall, you HAVE to have good gulf moisture. Only the mountains can get deep snow from NW flow.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)

Offline Crockett

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Re: Winter 2013-2014
« Reply #39 on: September 30, 2013, 10:20:52 AM »
I am going to say the 33-32 degree line will be further north this year and we will be stuck around (35) when most precip arrives.

I'm gonna say we'll be in the deep freeze and the moisture will be shunted to the GOMEX. Then we'll torch and have thunderstorms and tropical rains. Then back to deep freeze with bone-dry conditions.  ::bangingheadintowall:: ::rant::

Offline cd2play

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Re: Winter 2013-2014
« Reply #40 on: September 30, 2013, 06:35:47 PM »
I'm gonna say we'll be in the deep freeze and the moisture will be shunted to the GOMEX. Then we'll torch and have thunderstorms and tropical rains. Then back to deep freeze with bone-dry conditions.  ::bangingheadintowall:: ::rant::
I thought the way it usually works is we're in the deep freeze and dry, then moisture returns as temps warm to the mid 30s and a cold, miserable rain.  What changed?   ::bangingheadintowall:: ::shrug::

Offline cd2play

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Re: Winter 2013-2014
« Reply #41 on: September 30, 2013, 06:38:17 PM »
I am going to say the 33-32 degree line will be further north this year and we will be stuck around (35) when most precip arrives.
Workin' our way up.  How many more years before we get up to 40 when the precip arrives?  BTW up to level 67    ::guitar::

Offline cd2play

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Re: Winter 2013-2014
« Reply #42 on: September 30, 2013, 07:27:00 PM »
Some of the Pro-Mets (Joe Bastardi incl) are insisting that colder and snowier winters are in our future, even near future, and better days are ahead for the snow patrol.  I'm wanting to believe it, but I don't know. 

Offline Flash

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Re: Winter 2013-2014
« Reply #43 on: September 30, 2013, 08:24:40 PM »
Some of the Pro-Mets (Joe Bastardi incl) are insisting that colder and snowier winters are in our future, even near future, and better days are ahead for the snow patrol.  I'm wanting to believe it, but I don't know.


Joe Bastardi may be right with respect to other areas, but I typically assume the exact opposite will happen for middle Tennessee. I would have been happier if he said a torch was in store this winter. Who knows. I'm thinking we set the bar low this year, thus putting ourselves in a position to not be disappointed.

For my person winter forecast I'm putting together currently, I am anticipating one heck of a battle zone this season b/c I'm seeing signals suggesting a strong Pacific jet and favorable conditions for a -AO/-NAO. I'm not an expert by any means but it seems there are positive temperature anomalies north of 20 degrees on both sides of Canada right now. Makes me wonder...
« Last Edit: September 30, 2013, 08:26:22 PM by Flash »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2013-2014
« Reply #44 on: September 30, 2013, 08:30:18 PM »
I thought the way it usually works is we're in the deep freeze and dry, then moisture returns as temps warm to the mid 30s and a cold, miserable rain.  What changed?   ::bangingheadintowall:: ::shrug::
GLOBAL WARMING ::bangingheadintowall::

 

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