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I'm enjoying the fall, the football season not so much. Looks like Butch and the best staff in America are who I thought they were (to steal a line from Dennis Green). And I agree with you on the long range stuff. It's fun to look at and speculate on but it really holds very little actual value.
I ran a precipitation composite anomaly analysis a couple of years ago for Nashville's top 10 snowiest winters and interestingly precipitation for the winter season (Dec. to Feb.) was below normal. If someone gets bored and wants to confirm that precipitation is on average below normal during TN's snowiest winters feel free to do so and post it here. I suppose it could be explained by the fact that when we have a lot of artic air around it tends to be on the dry side with an occasional good snow when moisture does become available.
I am going to say the 33-32 degree line will be further north this year and we will be stuck around (35) when most precip arrives.
I'm gonna say we'll be in the deep freeze and the moisture will be shunted to the GOMEX. Then we'll torch and have thunderstorms and tropical rains. Then back to deep freeze with bone-dry conditions.
Some of the Pro-Mets (Joe Bastardi incl) are insisting that colder and snowier winters are in our future, even near future, and better days are ahead for the snow patrol. I'm wanting to believe it, but I don't know.
I thought the way it usually works is we're in the deep freeze and dry, then moisture returns as temps warm to the mid 30s and a cold, miserable rain. What changed?