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1
Severe Weather / Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Last post by schneitzeit on Yesterday at 09:33:11 PM »
I agree 100%. Not to mention the high cost of electricity, gas, and housing. Then you have San Francisco where people dump out in the street, pee anywhere, and needles make clean up not only a pain, but also dangerous. Nope... couldn't pay me to live there.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

Me neither. Miserable place to live unless you're very rich.
2
Severe Weather / Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Last post by mamMATTus on Yesterday at 08:30:11 PM »
Not even a rumble of thunder or flash of lightning
3
Severe Weather / Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Last post by schneitzeit on Yesterday at 05:40:26 PM »


All this in east TN in the next 24-48 hours.  Boring??  I think not.

I'm thinking we need to contain ol' Bruce to another thread  ;D
4
Severe Weather / Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Last post by JayCee on Yesterday at 05:13:16 PM »
Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
403 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Friday)...

A lot to discuss in the short term period with elevated fire
weather potential, high winds across the mountains, strong to
severe thunderstorms, and locally heavy rainfall.


Quote
The downslope
conditions will also keep dewpoints and RH values lower. RH
values in the mid to upper 30`s will be possible in NE Tennessee
and SW Virginia. This combined with gusty southerly winds could
create some elevated fire danger into the late afternoon. An SPS
has been issued for mainly northeast Tennessee and southwest
Virginia through 00Z.


Quote
Model guidance is in good agreement that 850mb winds
increase to 45 to 60 knots late tonight and into Friday morning.
This combined with a south to south-southeast wind direction gives
higher confidence of a mountain wave induced wind event across
the mountain zones tonight and Friday morning. The current high
wind warning seems to be in good shape and will keep that as is.

Quote
The next weather hazard to discuss is the potential for strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms late tonight.

Quote
The main
threats continue to be damaging winds but a tornado cannot be
ruled out. Timing of said convection is medium to high confidence.
High-res guidance indicates the line of thunderstorms moving into
far southwest counties of the MRX CWA as early as 03z to 04z and
will continue to move east overnight. Localized heavy rainfall is
possible as well given the high PW values and efficient warm rain
processes.

Quote
Rain showers will be widespread with
the upper low. With the cold air aloft freezing levels will drop
with some accumulating snow in the higher elevations above 4000 feet
late Friday night and Saturday tapering off Saturday night as the
system gradually shifts north. Snowfall amounts may reach up to
about 2 inches at highest elevations. Temperatures will be much
colder Friday night and Saturday. Lows Saturday in the 40s with 30s
highest elevations. Saturday highs will be in the upper 40s to lower
50s.

All this in east TN in the next 24-48 hours.  Boring??  I think not.  Unless you expect real life to be like a video game.


5
Severe Weather / Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Last post by gcbama on Yesterday at 03:31:35 PM »
imagine that.... lol .

LOL! truth
6
Severe Weather / Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Last post by Charles L. on Yesterday at 03:16:30 PM »
Very ominous couplet north of Puckett, MS.
7
Severe Weather / Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Last post by BRUCE on Yesterday at 03:00:31 PM »
Guess the rain and it being cloudy all day has zapped the strength of this system??
imagine that.... lol . 
8
Severe Weather / Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Last post by Beth on Yesterday at 02:55:05 PM »
We got take our field trip to the zoo today. It was great weather for it too! Nice breeze and mostly cloudy. It sprinkled on us on the way back. It was a loud trip in on the bus but the ride back was great as most of the first graders napped.  Glad the rain held off.   8)
9
Severe Weather / Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Last post by gcbama on Yesterday at 02:36:54 PM »
My thing if an overall pattern isn't conducive for routine severe weather...which is a reality again this year with El Niņo still present...you can't vent or reminisce your way to a desirable outcome. The best in the game realize the trends yet are constantly looking ahead. Applied to our regional cul-de-sac, I'm mildly optimistic things could get interesting as we head into May with above average temps/prec likely.

this is something I have said also.....and a lot of people that I really like on this site make me laugh with their constant " 6 days from now looks dangerous etc" almost like it is gospel. They do the same thing with winter weather.

True you can see a possible"trend/threat" 5-7 days out but you cannot truly pin down the potential magnitude of the event until about 60 hours out.

You cannot know a lot of the variables "cloud shields/rain shields" and how that will play into an event until closer to the event.....BUT That is what makes it all so fascinating, the more we think we know it seems mother nature can just twist it all around on us lol
10
Severe Weather / Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Last post by spanarkle08 on Yesterday at 02:25:54 PM »
Guess the rain and it being cloudy all day has zapped the strength of this system??
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