Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Severe Weather => Topic started by: Thundersnow on November 02, 2018, 12:49:25 PM

Title: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on November 02, 2018, 12:49:25 PM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2018/day4prob_20181102_1200.gif)
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2018/day5prob_20181102_1200.gif)

Quote
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1113 AM CDT Fri Nov 02 2018

   Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

   CORRECTED FOR LABEL ON DAY-8 GRAPHIC

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Potential exists for a significant severe event to transpire day 4
   (Monday) into day 5 (Tuesday) mainly from the lower MS Valley into
   the Southeast States. Model solutions have converged and
   demonstrated run to run consistency, depicting significant
   cyclogenesis to commence by Monday evening over the lower MS Valley
   in response to an approaching intense upper jet within base of an
   amplifying shortwave trough. The low is forecast to deepen as it
   lifts northeast into IL overnight with trailing cold front advancing
   through the TN and lower MS valley regions. Richer low-level
   moisture residing over the northern Gulf will advect rapidly
   northward through the warm sector in response to the strengthening
   low-level jet, contributing to destabilization with moderate
   instability possible from east TX into a portion of the Gulf Coast
   states. Severe storms are likely to develop along advancing cold
   front Monday afternoon initially from southeast OK into east TX,
   then spreading into the lower MS Valley and TN Valley regions Monday
   night. Impressive wind profiles with large hodographs and an intense
   upper jet will promote a threat for damaging wind, tornadoes and
   large hail. Severe threat will continue east through portions of the
   Southeast states and Middle Atlantic Tuesday.

   ..Dial.. 11/02/2018

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2018/day4-8_20181102.html
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: wfrogge on November 02, 2018, 02:28:02 PM
Models are moving timing up a little bit with the Ark/Tn/Ms  area being a target afternoon on Monday with the rest our state being a nocturnal event. Remember that clocks roll back this weekend so we "loose" an hour of daylight.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: MSR041933 on November 02, 2018, 04:07:53 PM
Saw on Facebook a guy posted that image of the D4-D5 outlooks, and was telling everyone that his “friends at NOAA are very scared this could be a historic outbreak”.i advised him not to fear monger and he  Then tries to tell me I don’t know anything and that he “is trained in this sort of thing..
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 02, 2018, 04:35:40 PM
Saw on Facebook a guy posted that image of the D4-D5 outlooks, and was telling everyone that his “friends at NOAA are very scared this could be a historic outbreak”.i advised him not to fear monger and he  Then tries to tell me I don’t know anything and that he “is trained in this sort of thing..
they need be... things look very ominous for a big one... look for a decent coservative approach day or so... then the up tick wiil sart to surface... look for SPC expand the 30 percent zone in morning update per model runs today

Post Merge: November 02, 2018, 04:37:56 PM
i be ready... im not working monday as now...things hold    i start out toward delta region... work our way towards home... classic situation
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 02, 2018, 06:17:35 PM
Saw on Facebook a guy posted that image of the D4-D5 outlooks, and was telling everyone that his “friends at NOAA are very scared this could be a historic outbreak”.i advised him not to fear monger and he  Then tries to tell me I don’t know anything and that he “is trained in this sort of thing..

Who? This guy needs to be called out. Screenshot?
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: StormNine on November 02, 2018, 06:59:33 PM
and we gain an hour of morning light. :) Its risky for people to hype this up on social media because it might not even rain its to far out to know if there will be severe weather yet alone an outbreak. Its cold outside right now not really the severe weather feel out there but who knows. Anything can happen we have had tornados in January before. But wait closer to monday before posting social media threats lol. chance for storms is all they need to know now.

There were low in the Teen's a few days before 11/17/2013 in the Ohio Valley.  This system is dynamic enough that it will provide its own moisture return.

The large-scale pattern supports a cool season severe weather event and possible outbreak (broad trough, large warm sector, strong low and mid-level jet).  The severe weather threat will likely extend into Illinois and Indiana and all of Kentucky and Tennessee will at least have some severe threat.  We need to take this one seriously. 
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 02, 2018, 07:21:39 PM
and we gain an hour of morning light. :) Its risky for people to hype this up on social media because it might not even rain its to far out to know if there will be severe weather yet alone an outbreak. Its cold outside right now not really the severe weather feel out there but who knows. Anything can happen we have had tornados in January before. But wait closer to monday before posting social media threats lol. chance for storms is all they need to know now.
do you ever look at weather models?....
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on November 02, 2018, 08:16:06 PM
and we gain an hour of morning light. :) Its risky for people to hype this up on social media because it might not even rain its to far out to know if there will be severe weather yet alone an outbreak. Its cold outside right now not really the severe weather feel out there but who knows. Anything can happen we have had tornados in January before. But wait closer to monday before posting social media threats lol. chance for storms is all they need to know now.

Dude, please try to use better grammar. I'm not trying to be a jerk, but reading run-on sentences like this gives me a headache.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Eric on November 02, 2018, 09:31:16 PM
do you ever look at weather models?....

OMG.

Laughable.

On a more sensible note, I wouldn't put much stock in temps right now.  With a strengthening low pressure system, it's going to draw warmer temps from the Gulf states.  Fall systems are much less dependent upon temps and tend to be dynamically driven.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: wfrogge on November 02, 2018, 09:50:27 PM
****
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 02, 2018, 09:54:01 PM
****

 ::popcorn::  ::yum::
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 02, 2018, 09:58:29 PM
****
i could feel those blanks in for u... but I would get banned...  yikes ....
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: wfrogge on November 02, 2018, 10:00:48 PM
Ducking ****
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Eric on November 02, 2018, 10:10:30 PM
Ducking ****

So, the wind barbs are going every which a way.  What does that even mean!!?????

Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: wfrogge on November 02, 2018, 10:15:59 PM
So, the wind barbs are going every which a way.  What does that even mean!!?????

Is this a test sir?   ;)  Crossover winds southeast at surface, southwest at 500mb
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Eric on November 02, 2018, 10:29:55 PM
Is this a test sir?   ;)  Crossover winds southeast at surface, southwest at 500mb

A test?  Negative Ghostrider.
(we need a "sarcasm" button)

But for those that may NOT know, that's a good explanation.  Exhibits plenty of wind shear with height.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: wfrogge on November 02, 2018, 10:33:41 PM
Sorry... even I am getting a little nervous about this event.  Would not surprise me if we see a day 3 moderate risk (and it would not surprise me if we don't see it, its 3 days out after all)
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 02, 2018, 10:54:09 PM
Is this a test sir?   ;)  Crossover winds southeast at surface, southwest at 500mb
shows turning of the winds at different heights... other words  . Rotating storms ... shear looks directional Also...
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Curt on November 02, 2018, 10:59:51 PM
OMG.

Laughable.



Well someone had to.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Eric on November 02, 2018, 11:12:42 PM
shows turning of the winds at different heights... other words  . Rotating storms ... shear looks directional Also...

Wait...how can directional wind shear cause rotating storms?  Surely I misinterpreted that.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 02, 2018, 11:18:22 PM
Wait...how can directional wind shear cause rotating storms?  Surely I misinterpreted that.
dont... just saying from the overall shear seems  be directional bubba lol

Post Merge: November 03, 2018, 02:42:45 AM
New day 3 outlook... one large enhanced area covers all mid south ...

Post Merge: November 03, 2018, 02:54:54 AM
That area is also 30 percent hatched... don’t think I never seen that on a 3 day outlook....

Post Merge: November 03, 2018, 06:04:02 AM
Meg starting get aggressive with their afd... and a lengthy one also....
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 03, 2018, 06:30:22 AM
Oh boy. We've already got a large enhanced area 3 days out. Still plenty of time for things to go Mod or dare I say High.

[attachimg=1]

Quote
Day 3 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0233 AM CDT Sat Nov 03 2018

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION
   OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Numerous severe storms with potential for damaging wind and
   tornadoes are expected Monday evening into the overnight from a
   portion of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio
   Valleys.

   Primary change to previous outlook for Monday has been to expand the
   severe risk areas farther north and east based on latest trends in
   model guidance.

   Potential still exists for significant severe weather to transpire
   Monday evening and overnight, mainly from the lower MS Valley into
   the Tennessee Valley regions. Though the NAM and GFS are slightly
   less amplified with approaching upper trough compared to the ECMWF,
   models have demonstrated reasonably good consistency. Cyclogenesis
   should commence by Monday evening over the lower MS Valley in
   response to ascent within exit region of an approaching, intense jet
   streak within base of an amplifying shortwave trough. The low is
   forecast to deepen as it lifts northeast into the OH Valley
   overnight with trailing cold front advancing through the TN and
   lower MS valley regions. Richer low-level moisture residing over the
   northern Gulf will advect rapidly northward through the warm sector
   in response to the strengthening low-level jet, contributing to
   destabilization with modest instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE).
   Mixed storm modes including a squall line and supercells are likely
   to develop along and ahead of advancing cold front Monday afternoon
   initially over the lower MS Valley, and continuing east into the TN
   Valley and Southeast States Monday night. Impressive wind profiles
   with large hodographs and an intense upper jet will promote a threat
   for mainly damaging wind and tornadoes, though some hail will also
   be possible.

   ..Dial.. 11/03/2018/quote]
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 03, 2018, 06:52:15 AM
Oh boy. We've already got a large enhanced area 3 days out. Still plenty of time for things to go Mod or dare I say High.
I
(Attachment)

Quote
Day 3 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0233 AM CDT Sat Nov 03 2018

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION
   OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Numerous severe storms with potential for damaging wind and
   tornadoes are expected Monday evening into the overnight from a
   portion of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio
   Valleys.

   Primary change to previous outlook for Monday has been to expand the
   severe risk areas farther north and east based on latest trends in
   model guidance.

   Potential still exists for significant severe weather to transpire
   Monday evening and overnight, mainly from the lower MS Valley into
   the Tennessee Valley regions. Though the NAM and GFS are slightly
   less amplified with approaching upper trough compared to the ECMWF,
   models have demonstrated reasonably good consistency. Cyclogenesis
   should commence by Monday evening over the lower MS Valley in
   response to ascent within exit region of an approaching, intense jet
   streak within base of an amplifying shortwave trough. The low is
   forecast to deepen as it lifts northeast into the OH Valley
   overnight with trailing cold front advancing through the TN and
   lower MS valley regions. Richer low-level moisture residing over the
   northern Gulf will advect rapidly northward through the warm sector
   in response to the strengthening low-level jet, contributing to
   destabilization with modest instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE).
   Mixed storm modes including a squall line and supercells are likely
   to develop along and ahead of advancing cold front Monday afternoon
   initially over the lower MS Valley, and continuing east into the TN
   Valley and Southeast States Monday night. Impressive wind profiles
   with large hodographs and an intense upper jet will promote a threat
   for mainly damaging wind and tornadoes, though some hail will also
   be possible.

   ..Dial.. 11/03/2018/quote]
yeah.  And it’s 30 percent hatched... close to moderate as it can get ...
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: wfrogge on November 03, 2018, 11:12:22 AM
And the NAM run takes a crap on the system.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 03, 2018, 11:39:18 AM
And the NAM run takes a crap on the system.
yea... but honest. The nam still in its wacky hour...now shows this 0z. Then it may be on to something

Post Merge: November 03, 2018, 01:04:42 PM
considering we have a 30 percent hatch area for significant severe weasther for our area,,, this has to be the least talked about system i can remember ever on THIS forum... things seem to be on track model wise, exception the blimp the nam threw at us 12z... nothing new there... now if we had a chance of 1 to 2 inches of snow... this board would be going ape $hit... ;)
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: wfrogge on November 03, 2018, 01:46:06 PM
Weather forums as a whole have less viewers than ever and that is part of the problem. Message boards are kind of a dinosaur in this age of social media and Discord servers.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: cliftown04 on November 03, 2018, 02:08:11 PM
Yes I’ll be curious if the board continues to be slow going into winter. I’ve been here since this board began and have seen many great posters come and go. I have hopes that we will continue to have knowledgeable people give insights. I would have to agree with Bruce that it is frustrating when everyone comes on board for half inch snow but non existent for severe. I worry people are becoming desensitized to severe weather here in mid and west Tennessee.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: cgauxknox on November 03, 2018, 02:13:31 PM
Yes I’ll be curious if the board continues to be slow going into winter. I’ve been here since this board began and have seen many great posters come and go. I have hopes that we will continue to have knowledgeable people give insights. I would have to agree with Bruce that it is frustrating when everyone comes on board for half inch snow but non existent for severe. I worry people are becoming desensitized to severe weather here in mid and west Tennessee.
I wonder if part of the problem is the frequency over the past couple of years of the media going crazy over severe potential, to the point of schools closing early to avoid the predicted storms, and then what hits is some drizzle.  This isn't a criticism of the forecasters or of erring on the side of safety, just that there seems to be so much bust potential for severe outbreaks recently that I think people are overlooking them.  That's dangerous, but also human nature.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: wfrogge on November 03, 2018, 02:52:56 PM
Euro actually increased the threat IMHO.  Lets see what MEG and other regional weather offices do with their AFD this afternoon.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Curt on November 03, 2018, 02:56:53 PM
Euro actually increased the threat IMHO.  Lets see what MEG and other regional weather offices do with their AFD this afternoon.

Cape def increased Memphis and down into the MS delta.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 03, 2018, 03:57:53 PM
Now. Nam joins the party.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 03, 2018, 05:45:21 PM
I wonder if part of the problem is the frequency over the past couple of years of the media going crazy over severe potential, to the point of schools closing early to avoid the predicted storms, and then what hits is some drizzle.  This isn't a criticism of the forecasters or of erring on the side of safety, just that there seems to be so much bust potential for severe outbreaks recently that I think people are overlooking them.  That's dangerous, but also human nature.

This is the exact thing I was worrying about and I think it’s happened. The public has largely become complacent for any severe threat. IMO, the last several systems have busted badly, especially any MOD risk...it hasn’t come close to verifying. Now the public considers it crying wolf. There is only so many times that can happen before the public as a whole stops believing. Now we have a system coming in that really looks like a serious threat and now it’s not getting any serious attention except for us weather nerds. Now it’s fall meaning people are even less likely to take a severe threat seriously for a number of reasons.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: EastTNWX on November 03, 2018, 05:52:37 PM
True severe weather is just so rare in Tennessee and isolated when it happens.  It's not something that will affect many people in TN any given year.  Winter weather is much more impactful in this state.  I know severe weather CAN happen, no one needs to chime in saying it happens, the reality is that its just not common.  That all being said, there's wording in the 7 day forecast for snow for the Knoxville area!
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 03, 2018, 06:04:09 PM
Feel free to move or delete if too far off topic, but there used to be an FB page called "East TN Storm Trackers" that had thousands of followers. Realized I hadn't seen a post by them in quite some time so I went to check to see if they had said anything about this event...page deleted. Anyone know when that happened or why? Not a big deal to me at all since it was more/less an NWS info relay, just curious.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 03, 2018, 06:07:02 PM
True severe weather is just so rare in Tennessee and isolated when it happens.  It's not something that will affect many people in TN any given year.  Winter weather is much more impactful in this state.  I know severe weather CAN happen, no one needs to chime in saying it happens, the reality is that its just not common.  That all being said, there's wording in the 7 day forecast for snow for the Knoxville area!
severe weather rare in tennessee... laughable... you couldnt be more wrong... look at stats... snow is whats coming more rare in tennessee...  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on November 03, 2018, 06:36:29 PM
severe weather rare in tennessee... laughable... you couldnt be more wrong... look at stats... snow is whats coming more rare in tennessee...  ::rofl::

East TN: Snow > Severe
West TN: Severe > Snow
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: StormNine on November 03, 2018, 07:06:58 PM
A big part of why this system is not receiving a lot of coverage is because Tuesday is one of the most heated Mid-Term election Days in US History.  This severe weather event happens to fall right in that timeframe where the focus will be on elections. 

Other reasons include some fairly higher-end severe threats going bust.  We have had only 2 MDT Risks that verified since 2014 (12/23/2015 and 3/1/2018).  The cry-wolf effect from media and especially social media has an impact. 
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on November 03, 2018, 08:16:43 PM
The cry-wolf effect from media and especially social media has an impact.

Thanks, Mike Seidel.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Crockett on November 03, 2018, 08:28:09 PM
severe weather rare in tennessee... laughable... you couldnt be more wrong... look at stats... snow is whats coming more rare in tennessee...  ::rofl::

Grammatical skills seem to be becoming less common as well.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 03, 2018, 08:35:02 PM
Grammatical skills seem to be becoming less common as well.

I figured out Bruce is Tennessee Storm Chaser on TW purely based on this.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 03, 2018, 09:20:47 PM
Big severe event modeled little over 48 hours out ... and this thread is turning into talking bout Bruce ... come on... let’s stay on topic pease
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 03, 2018, 10:15:38 PM
If I was going to chase this far out my target zone would be southern Middle TN/North Al. But I wouldn’t do that without daylight.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 03, 2018, 10:24:59 PM
If I was going to chase this far out my target zone would be southern Middle TN/North Al. But I wouldn’t do that without daylight.
we are going to start off sw towards the delta regions.  Work our way back east
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: EastTNWX on November 03, 2018, 11:13:15 PM
severe weather rare in tennessee... laughable... you couldnt be more wrong... look at stats... snow is whats coming more rare in tennessee...  ::rofl::

According to the NCDC Tennessee has the lowest rate of tornadoes of anywhere in the south, except Virginia.  It actually has fewer tornadoes than everywhere in the US except the Northeastern and Western States, except for Colorado.  This would make sense to those knowledgeable about the nature of tornadoes.

Also as a btw, the same source states that tornado 'trends' in Tennessee are decreasing compared to the previous 30 year climatology window.  Also, winter related costs far outweigh those from severe weather on an annual basis.  It's not even close.

As far as the early week threat goes, there will be some spin ups but the primary threat will likely be straight line winds as the front will quickly become occluded and the source low pressure too far to the north.  It should be a decent rainmaker though!

Sorry to burst your bubble.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: wfrogge on November 03, 2018, 11:40:30 PM
Bruce said severe weather not necessarily tornadoes. And though we are no MS or AL we still get our fair share of tornadoes.  https://www.ustornadoes.com/2016/04/06/annual-and-monthly-tornado-averages-across-the-united-states/
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 04, 2018, 01:19:28 AM
Possible upgrade to moderate risk may be coming per latest outlook....
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 04, 2018, 06:38:47 AM
Wise decision on waiting to go Mod I think.

Post Merge: November 04, 2018, 06:55:15 AM
I have no idea about the resolution for the Euro from weathermodels.us, or if the 1hr precip is the right parameter to be using, but the 9:00pm-2:00am time frame looks very concerning for Western/Middle TN and especially North Miss/AL. It's almost as if it doesn't go fully QLCS until just after it passes Nashville, meaning everything before/after that is mostly super-cellular?? I have to be very wrong on this and not even close to being right lol. Damnit I wish I had that $25 a month for WxBell.

Edit: I have no idea why I didn't use dBz. Didn't even see it.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Charles L. on November 04, 2018, 06:56:55 AM
New graphic from OHX...[attachimg=1]

According to their AFD, they seem to be more focused on the squall line threat than the supercell potential.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: StormNine on November 04, 2018, 08:13:16 AM
The storm mode will likely be a broken up line/cluster type.  This would potentially deliver a higher tornado threat than most typical squall lines especially within the gaps of the line because those storms would have the chance to get more inflow.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: wfrogge on November 04, 2018, 08:25:05 AM
The storm mode will likely be a broken up line/cluster type.  This would potentially deliver a higher tornado threat than most typical squall lines especially within the gaps of the line because those storms would have the chance to get more inflow.

Yep
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Eric on November 04, 2018, 11:35:09 AM
Fresh SPC update enlarges hatched ENH up into KY.  Going to be a busy day tomorrow for some folks.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 04, 2018, 11:41:09 AM
Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like 12z GFS moves the threat more north and east and puts Nashville more or less in the bullseye.  ::popcorn::
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 04, 2018, 11:42:17 AM
Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like 12z GFS moves the threat more north and east and puts Nashville more or less in the bullseye.  ::popcorn::
correct    middle tennessee nowhas the better tornado chance...
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 04, 2018, 11:45:00 AM
correct    middle tennessee nowhas the better tornado chance...

**** it. Why can't this happen during the day when I can chase.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: wfrogge on November 04, 2018, 11:45:46 AM
correct    middle tennessee nowhas the better tornado chance...

No....

Its still a small part of SW Tennessee, N Mississippi, and NW Alabama with the best tornado chances.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 04, 2018, 11:47:05 AM
**** it. Why can't this happen during the day when I can chase.
100 percent agree with u... seem s  like night time our best chance... boosted by lower level jet influence ...

Post Merge: November 04, 2018, 11:49:03 AM
No....

Its still a small part of SW Tennessee, N Mississippi, and NW Alabama with the best tornado chances.
seems to me frogge, best cape with shear proflies come together better slightly more east now... were by no means out the woods here west tn or even se arkansas for that matter... ::coffee::
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: wfrogge on November 04, 2018, 11:52:22 AM
The SPC expanded the area for wind not tornadoes IMHO. Will there be tornado warnings in middle TN? Yes. Are the dynamics that we saw a few days ago for MS and AL now creeping into middle TN? No....  Even areas that yesterday looked like they might go moderate today look like solid enhanced areas. Still a big event just not what it looked like a few days ago.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 04, 2018, 11:59:38 AM
The SPC expanded the area for wind not tornadoes IMHO. Will there be tornado warnings in middle TN? Yes. Are the dynamics that we saw a few days ago for MS and AL now creeping into middle TN? No....  Even areas that yesterday looked like they might go moderate today look like solid enhanced areas. Still a big event just not what it looked like a few days ago.
actually yeah  dynamics are creeping up north, especially for mid state area... further out ahead of the cold front... along alabama southern tn line looks to be hot spot for a tornado... perhaps a significant at that... back west looks like nice qlcs type with embedded super cells within...
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: StormNine on November 04, 2018, 01:02:37 PM
There may be a small window for an isolated strong tornado in SW and SW Middle TN/N MS/NW AL, but that will depend on mesoscale processes.  Overall this will be a messy cluster/ multi-cell to possibly supercell mixed bag storm mode.  There is enough shear to have a tornado/wind threat with the strongest storms but if there is a lot of pre-severe storm junk out in the warm sector then that will really lower the severe threat.   
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Charles L. on November 04, 2018, 01:31:44 PM
There may be a small window for an isolated strong tornado in SW and SW Middle TN/N MS/NW AL, but that will depend on mesoscale processes.  Overall this will be a messy cluster/ multi-cell to possibly supercell mixed bag storm mode.  There is enough shear to have a tornado/wind threat with the strongest storms but if there is a lot of pre-severe storm junk out in the warm sector then that will really lower the severe threat.

In before the “bust” posts start at noon tomorrow!
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: NismoWx on November 04, 2018, 01:43:59 PM
Fresh SPC update enlarges hatched ENH up into KY.  Going to be a busy day tomorrow for some folks.
And I have to drive to Evansville and back tomorrow for work. Lucky me.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 04, 2018, 02:43:00 PM
I mean there always is the chance. Thats why I feel they are holding off on Mod. By noon tomorrow we should have a better idea of what if any potential this actually has. At least we all will probably get some rain out of this.
no rain for you... models showing skipping your house... :D
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Curt on November 04, 2018, 04:40:19 PM
18z nam sure looks like a lot of crapvection starting around the MS river around 1-2pm tomorrow. It just trains over the 40 corridor for hours from Memphis to Nashville- up to 4 inches of rain in places. The better places for severe sure look like northern MS and NW AL- but the system starts pulling away as instability finally increases in those areas. If I were betting- Northern MS looks about best for the most significant impacts. I wouldn’t rule it out further north but that training of rain will erase any instability. Gonna be a wet afternoon either way.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on November 04, 2018, 05:00:50 PM
18Z 3km NAM showing the storms hitting every major TN city:

[attachimg=1]
[attachimg=2]
[attachimg=3]

Remember: If you are in EST, subtract 5 hours from Zulu. If you are in CST, subtract 6 hours from Zulu.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on November 04, 2018, 05:03:09 PM
18z nam sure looks like a lot of crapvection starting around the MS river around 1-2pm tomorrow. It just trains over the 40 corridor for hours from Memphis to Nashville- up to 4 inches of rain in places. The better places for severe sure look like northern MS and NW AL- but the system starts pulling away as instability finally increases in those areas. If I were betting- Northern MS looks about best for the most significant impacts. I wouldn’t rule it out further north but that training of rain will erase any instability. Gonna be a wet afternoon either way.

What part of northern MS? All the way west to east?


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Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 04, 2018, 05:34:36 PM
18z nam sure looks like a lot of crapvection starting around the MS river around 1-2pm tomorrow. It just trains over the 40 corridor for hours from Memphis to Nashville- up to 4 inches of rain in places. The better places for severe sure look like northern MS and NW AL- but the system starts pulling away as instability finally increases in those areas. If I were betting- Northern MS looks about best for the most significant impacts. I wouldn’t rule it out further north but that training of rain will erase any instability. Gonna be a wet afternoon either way.
think I’m going wait on the 0z suits.  Never trusted 18 z suits no matter what it shows to be honest ...
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 04, 2018, 05:36:25 PM
18z nam sure looks like a lot of crapvection starting around the MS river around 1-2pm tomorrow. It just trains over the 40 corridor for hours from Memphis to Nashville- up to 4 inches of rain in places. The better places for severe sure look like northern MS and NW AL- but the system starts pulling away as instability finally increases in those areas. If I were betting- Northern MS looks about best for the most significant impacts. I wouldn’t rule it out further north but that training of rain will erase any instability. Gonna be a wet afternoon either way.

I'm guess the crapvection potential is exactly why they haven't gone Mod.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 04, 2018, 05:46:29 PM
I'm guess the crapvection potential is exactly why they haven't gone Mod.
main reason was over night model runs back off cape values... interesting see if tonight it holds.  But it’s about short range time anyways ...
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 04, 2018, 06:11:19 PM
Thats the same thing. If theres no cape then that allows for the crapvection lol. I could see the enhanced being trimmed tomorrow further south honestly but we will see.
thats not reason showing cape was lowered ... one less amped trough.  Which have hard time pulling good dps north... if anything think enhanced maybe gonlittke further east northeast.  We see
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Eric on November 04, 2018, 07:08:41 PM
Thats the same thing. If theres no cape then that allows for the crapvection lol. I could see the enhanced being trimmed tomorrow further south honestly but we will see.

Not sure atmospheric processes work that way.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: wfrogge on November 04, 2018, 08:51:32 PM
I just don't even.....
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 04, 2018, 09:23:21 PM
I just saw WKRN's RPM house model and it showed the system moving in much quicker than anything I've seen so far. Lots of discrete activity or crapvection(can't tell which) breaking out as early as the 6-7pm time frame along the West/Middle TN line. Broken QLCS somewhat supercellular-looking pushes through Nashville in the 9-10pm time frame.

*I know nothing about the accuracy of the RPM, in-house or otherwise and really don't watch WKRN much.*
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Curt on November 04, 2018, 09:34:25 PM
0z nam looks to have general thunderstorms starting in the Memphis area around 1pm. Maybe if I’m not corrected by someone more knowledgeable- looks to be a window for severe locally from 5-8 in the metro as the cold front moves through. Higher cape values are further south of the TN-MS line but trying to sneak up from the delta. I would think Memphis area has a narrow window for some spin ups. Heavy rain is almost a given at this point.

Keep in mind- I’m more of an amateur at severe than winter. Someone like Frogge can maybe comment better than me for this area anyway.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: StormNine on November 05, 2018, 06:06:27 AM
The HRRR/latest NAM is trending to a more unstable airmass particularly for the Memphis area and Northern MS.  The crapvectionzone is shown more along the KY/Tn border versus I-40 area.  If that is realized then it is game on for a decent severe weather with damaging winds and tornadoes with a broken line of supercells and bow echos.  CAPE values range from around 300j/kg on the KY/TN border to 1000j/kg in Memphis and that will be enough with the low-level shear to have a decent fall severe event.  We will see how this goes and how far the greater moisture return/instability can advect northward.   
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on November 05, 2018, 06:30:34 AM
thats not reason showing cape was lowered ... one less amped trough.  Which have hard time pulling good dps north... if anything think enhanced maybe gonlittke further east northeast.  We see

gonlittke goes good with a cup of covfefe.


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Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Charles L. on November 05, 2018, 07:13:51 AM
They expanded the Enhanced zone a bit NE to include Nashville and Lebanon once again.

They also introduced a hatched tornado risk for SW TN,Northern MS, and NW AL.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 05, 2018, 07:16:02 AM
They expanded the Enhanced zone a bit NE to include Nashville and Lebanon once again.

They also introduced a hatched tornado risk for SW TN,Northern MS, and NW AL.
must. Admit... I did not see that coming ... fairly large area  west tn 10 percent hatched tornado
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Charles L. on November 05, 2018, 07:20:47 AM
must. Admit... I did not see that coming ... fairly large area  west tn 10 percent hatched tornado

Same, but I guess they aren’t thinking we are going to see much in the way of pre-event convection to rob the available instability from taking hold.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: wfrogge on November 05, 2018, 08:05:46 AM
No crapvection and I am seeing hints of cloud breaks on imagery... If we get cloud breaks things will change
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 05, 2018, 08:07:11 AM
Getting nice breaks in clouds here now ...!see on satellite  imagery warm air is surging north oretty fast .. that push dews up toward mid 60s later ....
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Curt on November 05, 2018, 08:09:00 AM
HRR and Nam have definitely ramped up severe weather parameters near Memphis between 4-8 tonight. Cape nearing 1200 sneaks right up the MS river into SW Tn
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 05, 2018, 08:12:10 AM
HRR and Nam have definitely ramped up severe weather parameters near Memphis between 4-8 tonight. Cape nearing 1200 sneaks right up the MS river into SW Tn
yeah that caught my attention for sure
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: spanarkle08 on November 05, 2018, 09:56:30 AM
Whats the timing on this  in the Jackson area?
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 05, 2018, 10:05:29 AM
Whats the timing on this  in the Jackson area?
6. To. 9 clock pm. Give take there ... could see some renegade cells little earlier ...
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Farris_TN on November 05, 2018, 10:25:13 AM
The NAM 3km seems to keep the worst of the weather in Southern Middle TN. It has more individual cells popping up before the line but they don't have much to work with. It has the main line moving through Middle TN around 12:00 AM.

The 15z HRRR brings the severe ingredients a little farther north into Middle TN but it's still on the low end. It has the main line coming through around 10:00 PM.

The 15z RAP is pretty much in line with the HRRR except brings the line in around 11:00 PM.

We absolutely still need to watch this system but I believe the tornado potential is not as high in Middle TN. This should be more of a damaging wind threat.

Above was posted before SPC updated the Day 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Post Merge: November 05, 2018, 10:34:38 AM
[attachimg=1]

SPC moved the Tornado Potential more North and East and included Nashville in the hatched.

What are they seeing that is causing them to raise the threat?
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 05, 2018, 10:37:09 AM
The sun is out in Franklin. Temp at 61, dewpoint at 40.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: vanster67 on November 05, 2018, 11:38:47 AM
everyone stay safe today.  currently 58 degrees in monterey with a dewpoint of 51.  saw in weather history that back on nov 5th 1994 giles county TN had an F-2 tornado touchdown on the ground for 7 miles.  thankfully no injuries.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Cyrgeetar on November 05, 2018, 11:42:51 AM
The sun is out in Franklin. Temp at 61, dewpoint at 40.


It appears the dewpoint in Franklin has shot up to the mid-50's in the last hour.  ::coffee::
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: spanarkle08 on November 05, 2018, 11:54:50 AM
South Carroll Co....temp 64,  dewpoint 54,  humidity  81%
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 05, 2018, 12:01:28 PM
Starting to think SPC brought the 10% hatched area back over more of Middle TN because they’re thinking there may be more destabilization than modeled. Dewpoints seem to be rapidly rising and certainly temps. I think afternoon highs may be more than forecasted. Rapidly decreasing cloud cover here in Williamson County.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 05, 2018, 12:17:09 PM
The rich unstable air mass is just south of Memphis  moving northward ... see how far it can get into sw Tennessee....
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 05, 2018, 12:26:32 PM
We have come a long way from the 46 degrees this morning. Currently 64/57.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Charles L. on November 05, 2018, 12:35:38 PM
We are mostly sunny up here in Hendersonville.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 05, 2018, 12:59:03 PM
Now getting word from sources. Gravity waves being detected around west and middle Tennessee...
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: spanarkle08 on November 05, 2018, 01:41:12 PM
This line coming through the river...is this the main line??
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 05, 2018, 01:42:27 PM
This line coming through the river...is this the main line??
no....
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: RobD on November 05, 2018, 01:45:26 PM
Now getting word from sources. Gravity waves being detected around west and middle Tennessee...

I looked it up on Wikipedia but can someone explain what a gravity wave being detected means in the context of today’s weather? Thanks!
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 05, 2018, 01:55:55 PM
I looked it up on Wikipedia but can someone explain what a gravity wave being detected means in the context of today’s weather? Thanks!
sign Of a air mass becoming increasingly unstable...
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: wfrogge on November 05, 2018, 02:02:51 PM
sign Of a air mass becoming increasingly unstable...
no
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 05, 2018, 02:04:00 PM
no
studied on this. ....
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: wfrogge on November 05, 2018, 02:05:39 PM
studied on this. ....
no

https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-news/2017/march/flight-training-magazine/weather-gravity-wave
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 05, 2018, 02:08:42 PM
Spc pretty much carbon copy last update no changes for our area .... same tornado hatched zone ....
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: ryandourius on November 05, 2018, 02:26:22 PM
Yes, gravity waves can be a clear indication that the atmosphere is beginning to juice up and destabilize. We just studied these last week in class. This could also be an indication of a warm front pushing through or approaching. These clouds do not mean you are guaranteed severe weather, but they do mean weather changes are coming in your immediate future.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Curt on November 05, 2018, 02:41:57 PM
Totally getting crapvected at the moment. HRR clears it out in an hour. QLCS looks to form well back into Arkansas now and into the Memphis area around 7.  Cape should increase after this moves out. Cape down into the MS delta looks more stout than here.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: JayCee on November 05, 2018, 03:01:56 PM
Unfortunately for those in eastern areas, the rough weather looks to move in overnight.

Quote
As the night wears on, this severe convective line will move out of
the Plateau into east TN, generally around the 3-6AM timeframe.  At
that point the atmosphere across east TN and southwest NC/VA will
still be supportive of severe convection, therefore little if any
weakening is expected,
with any weakening being furthest north.  A
strong 60-65kt swly llj will move across the region with (and ahead
of) the convective line, which will enhance shear/srh to levels
favoring damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado or two.  The
highest chances for tornadoes will coincide with the region of best
shear/instability overlap, which looks to remain along/west of I75
and along/south of I40
.  Further east/northeast surface based
instability will be at a premium, thus tornadoes are less likely.
Overall the greatest threats will this storm system will be damaging
winds, isolated tornadoes, and brief heavy rainfall.
  Further timing
details would suggest the strongest portions of the line moving into
CHA by around 3-4AM, TYS at around 4-5AM, and TRI by around 6-7AM
(albeit weaker that far north).
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Matthew on November 05, 2018, 03:03:08 PM
Not sure if matters but...
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 05, 2018, 03:16:37 PM
There is no “soupy” feeling outside right now in Franklin. If anything it’s the exact opposite.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Eric on November 05, 2018, 03:24:06 PM
There is no “soupy” feeling outside right now in Franklin. If anything it’s the exact opposite.

Airmass modification slowly taking place.  Dew points at Huntsville jumped two degrees in an hour.  Up to 65/62.  BNA is at 70/55 so a ton of mixing has taken place.  Dew points still progged to increase with time. 
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Charles L. on November 05, 2018, 03:30:04 PM
Airmass modification slowly taking place.  Dew points at Huntsville jumped two degrees in an hour.  Up to 65/62.  BNA is at 70/55 so a ton of mixing has taken place.  Dew points still progged to increase with time.

Yay early day sunshine. Maybe for a nice day before clouds moved back in!
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 05, 2018, 04:10:02 PM
That is a LOT of prefrontal convection over the West/Middle TN line right now. Surely that has to have a major impact on severity later.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Eric on November 05, 2018, 04:14:10 PM
That is a LOT of prefrontal convection over the West/Middle TN line right now. Surely that has to have a major impact on severity later.

May be why the ENHANCED was oriented the way it was.  Current motion carries the bulk of the crapvection north of BNA.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 05, 2018, 04:28:06 PM
May be why the ENHANCED was oriented the way it was.  Current motion carries the bulk of the crapvection north of BNA.

Very true did not think about that.

Might not be applicable and I may not know what I'm talking about, but could any of those storms gust out and leave outflow boundaries in place for later or is that more of a spring/summer time thing?
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Eric on November 05, 2018, 04:29:45 PM
Very true did not think about that.

Might not be applicable and I may not know what I'm talking about, but could any of those storms gust out and leave outflow boundaries in place for later or is that more of a spring/summer time thing?

No, it's definitely possible.  Now, what impact they'll have is the $64,000 question.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Charles L. on November 05, 2018, 04:41:45 PM
Multiple confirmed tornadoes already down in LA...
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Farris_TN on November 05, 2018, 04:55:05 PM
Rain now moving in to Middle TN. For those of us that aren’t a fan of severe weather, the rain now may help take whatever CAPE could have been present and lessen the chance of tornadoes. The speed of the winds aloft will blow the tops of the storms reducing severe potential. Without CAPE severe ain’t happening.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Matthew on November 05, 2018, 04:57:29 PM
Rain now moving in to Middle TN. For those of us that aren’t a fan of severe weather, the rain now may help take whatever CAPE could have been present and lessen the chance of tornadoes. The speed of the winds aloft will blow the tops of the storms reducing severe potential. Without CAPE severe ain’t happening.

??? Do you really think this?
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on November 05, 2018, 05:04:04 PM
Radar looks a lot more promising then I thought it was going to be looking. We might actually get rain from this.  ::rain::
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Farris_TN on November 05, 2018, 05:12:54 PM
??? Do you really think this?

Yes...Do you not? Do you believe you’ll get storms with no CAPE?
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: StormNine on November 05, 2018, 05:16:26 PM
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1622.html

That is a new function of a mesoscale discussion. 
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Eric on November 05, 2018, 05:17:29 PM
Rain now moving in to Middle TN. For those of us that aren’t a fan of severe weather, the rain now may help take whatever CAPE could have been present and lessen the chance of tornadoes. The speed of the winds aloft will blow the tops of the storms reducing severe potential. Without CAPE severe ain’t happening.

For those east of 65 and south of 40 might go unaffected by the modeled crapvection.  Atmosphere is still undergoing modification.  The ENHANCED risk was laid out taking this into account.  Don't discount an event for those that haven't yet or won't be affected by ongoing events.  We know you dislike severe wx, and that's cool, but don't get fooled into complacency.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Farris_TN on November 05, 2018, 05:20:30 PM
For those east of 65 and south of 40 might go unaffected by the modeled crapvection.  Atmosphere is still undergoing modification.  The ENHANCED risk was laid out taking this into account.  Don't discount an event for those that haven't yet or won't be affected by ongoing events.  We know you dislike severe wx, and that's cool, but don't get fooled into complacency.

Oh I apologize if it seemed I was discounting it, I was simply stating that there is hope for those of us that don’t want severe weather. The situation absolutely needs to be watched.

Sorry for any confusion.
Title: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Curt on November 05, 2018, 05:21:12 PM
Yes...Do you not? Do you believe you’ll get storms with no CAPE?

The atmosphere can destabilize rapidly in the fall. December 14, 1987, temps went from 30’s to 70’s in a few hours with crapvection and the West Memphis tornado formed along the triple point. Never would have guessed that morning it was possible.

Here’s current cape in west TN with crapvection

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181105/c21718e750468eb9367588f1a1ce0699.jpg)

Here’s the forecast in 4 hours
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181105/afe00b95d53c03d894b1ebf0526bfaf9.jpg)
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Charles L. on November 05, 2018, 05:34:15 PM
Yep. Just because the sun is down doesn’t mean instability can’t form.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Matthew on November 05, 2018, 05:35:45 PM
Yes...Do you not? Do you believe you’ll get storms with no CAPE?

Yes that is correct but most of the rain is going north of southern middle TN.  I don’t see the chances for severe Lessing yet.  Will severe happen who knows but to me it’s very early still yet.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: StormNine on November 05, 2018, 05:38:32 PM
We don't need a lot of CAPE to have severe weather and tornadoes.  Just a few hundred is good enough in fall/winter severe weather.  We have had widespread damaging wind events and notable tornadoes in as little as 250 CAPE.   

The CAPE is about on schedule in relation to the HRRR output.  In around 2 hours we should about 500 CAPE from the Memphis area eastward into SW Middle TN with 300 CAPE eventually making it to at least Nashville.   That is enough for a severe event in this environment.   
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: WXRocker on November 05, 2018, 05:40:20 PM
Meanwhile, in Hoptown.... ::rain::   ::sleeping::
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 05, 2018, 06:15:54 PM
All of this waiting is maddening.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: WXHD on November 05, 2018, 06:16:38 PM
I cut down my Bradford Pears a month ago. I have never been as relaxed about a storm as I am now. It, of course, still warrants concern and attention. Butt! I ain’t worried about those stupid trees and the damage they could do to my home.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 05, 2018, 06:26:32 PM
Looks like things are starting to fire up in northern Mississippi.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 05, 2018, 06:44:56 PM
The atmosphere can destabilize rapidly in the fall. December 14, 1987, temps went from 30’s to 70’s in a few hours with crapvection and the West Memphis tornado formed along the triple point. Never would have guessed that morning it was possible.

Here’s current cape in west TN with crapvection

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181105/c21718e750468eb9367588f1a1ce0699.jpg)

Here’s the forecast in 4 hours
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181105/afe00b95d53c03d894b1ebf0526bfaf9.jpg)
i remember that nite real well
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Clay on November 05, 2018, 06:46:25 PM
Lower level moisture advection really picking along the I-65 corridor the past hour. 61F Td at BNA as of 6:35PM, up 5F in less than 2 hours. A whopping 66F at Columbia.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on November 05, 2018, 06:48:27 PM
Lower level moisture advection really picking along the I-65 corridor the past hour. 61F Td at BNA as of 6:35PM, up 5F in less than 2 hours. A whopping 66F at Columbia.
We had no wind earlier and the wind over the past hour or so has really picked up here out of the south.
Its gusting over 30mph at times. I was outside listening and it got really intense i thought (from the sound of the leaves) and boom a big dust tornado hit my house (just leaves not no dust) but it was cool to bad i couldnt see it really like you can during the day.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 05, 2018, 07:00:08 PM
What’s the earliest we can expect a watch to go out, and is it more likely to be TOR or SVR? Have not see a Meso yet for Middle TN.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Beth on November 05, 2018, 07:05:25 PM
Just went out!
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: WXRocker on November 05, 2018, 07:05:56 PM
Tornado Watch #423 issued

TN
.    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEDFORD              BENTON              CANNON
CARROLL              CHEATHAM            CHESTER
COFFEE               CROCKETT            DAVIDSON
DECATUR              DICKSON             FAYETTE
GIBSON               GILES               HARDEMAN
HARDIN               HAYWOOD             HENDERSON
HENRY                HICKMAN             HOUSTON
HUMPHREYS            LAWRENCE            LEWIS
MACON                MADISON             MARSHALL
MAURY                MCNAIRY             MONTGOMERY
PERRY                ROBERTSON           RUTHERFORD
SHELBY               SMITH               STEWART
SUMNER               TIPTON              TROUSDALE
WAYNE                WEAKLEY             WILLIAMSON
WILSON
$$


ATTN...WFO...LZK...OHX...MEG...
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Curt on November 05, 2018, 07:26:22 PM
DP at Memphis just about to 70. That was a quick increase.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: BRUCE on November 05, 2018, 07:29:38 PM
DP at Memphis just about to 70. That was a quick increase.
yeah, now were finally getting somewhere ... ::coffee::
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: StormNine on November 05, 2018, 07:42:00 PM
We are going to see what the worst of this event is in the next 1-3 hours as the lower level jet starts to crank and the instability is now beginning to spread into the area.   
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 05, 2018, 07:42:30 PM
DP up to 63 at BNA and 88% humidity. Starting to see why there was such strong wording used in the Watch.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: EastTNWX on November 05, 2018, 07:52:53 PM
This looks like the classic storm fronts that would blow through during my time in KS in the early fall/late summer.  It will be fun to watch this evolve into a bow echo.  There'll be some Tornado warnings but it won't be the big story.   Once that second line by Memphis catches up to the first it will occlude and bow out to the ENE more quickly.  It looks like that'll probably happen between Tupelo and Florence AL.  Once that happens the Tornado threat dies down except for the southern areas closer to the line segments that will remain due to proximity to the gulf.  Just my $0.02.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 05, 2018, 08:04:12 PM
Just stepped outside for the first time in a few hours and it feels like a mid-late April evening. Wind is really whipping here in Hermitage.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: EastTNWX on November 05, 2018, 08:15:43 PM
Looks like the first Warning just issued in MS, must be radar indicated as there's no social media chatter about reports.  Looks like Memphis is just about done, maybe one more storm?
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: StormNine on November 05, 2018, 08:24:19 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Memphis TN
820 PM CST MON NOV 5 2018

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northern Benton County in western Tennessee...
  Northeastern Carroll County in western Tennessee...
  Southern Henry County in western Tennessee...

* Until 900 PM CST.

* At 820 PM CST, doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm
  producing a tornado was located near Vale, or 8 miles south of
  Paris, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Here is our first contestant.   
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: EastTNWX on November 05, 2018, 08:32:47 PM
The one in MS might be legit, still no reports yet though.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on November 05, 2018, 09:02:33 PM
Those of you in Middle Tenn, any updates?
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: EastTNWX on November 05, 2018, 09:18:32 PM
It looks like Big Sandy TN reported a high wind event.  The reports have been paltry so far, but its a start.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on November 05, 2018, 09:33:31 PM
Storms are just having a hard time getting their act together besides a few isolated ones. At first the way things was taking off I figured we would have a line of severe thunderstorm warnings but i guess not.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: MSR041933 on November 05, 2018, 09:37:07 PM
Settled in for the night in NW ALin the Hodges/Hackleburb area...eerily calm at the moment.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: VandyMachine on November 05, 2018, 09:38:26 PM
Windy and warm. Tree limbs are falling off and smacking the roof. Some have made me jump...lol.

Those of you in Middle Tenn, any updates?
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on November 05, 2018, 09:40:26 PM
It looks like Big Sandy TN reported a high wind event.  The reports have been paltry so far, but its a start.

The name of that town makes me snicker.

Here are some other TN town names that make me laugh:
- Soddy-Daisy
- Bucksnort
- McBurg
- Coble
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on November 05, 2018, 09:48:23 PM
To me it seems the storms in Mid tn are finally starting to strengthen a little.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 05, 2018, 09:49:02 PM
The name of that town makes me snicker.

Here are some other TN town names that make me laugh:
- Soddy-Daisy
- Bucksnort
- McBurg
- Coble
You have not lived until you visit Frog Jump.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Volduff64 on November 05, 2018, 09:56:41 PM
Or Dull
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: jbmac25 on November 05, 2018, 10:04:14 PM
Sirens going off here in Goodlettsville.


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Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: WXRocker on November 05, 2018, 10:09:25 PM
The name of that town makes me snicker.

Here are some other TN town names that make me laugh:
- Soddy-Daisy
- Bucksnort
- McBurg
- Coble
I grew up in Difficult.  It's just outside of Defeated.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Clay on November 05, 2018, 10:09:47 PM
Sirens going off near Lenox Village. They really need to coordinate sirens with Polygon warnings there's no need for them when the warned storm is 15 miles across town.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Beth on November 05, 2018, 10:12:12 PM
Good news is the Titan’s beat the Cowboys!
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Shanti on November 05, 2018, 10:20:52 PM
Sirens going off near Lenox Village. They really need to coordinate sirens with Polygon warnings there's no need for them when the warned storm is 15 miles across town.

same here in Bellevue 5th time i hear the sirens when the warning is way north of here.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Charles L. on November 05, 2018, 10:30:19 PM
Definitely an area of concern approaching Gallatin...
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 05, 2018, 10:30:34 PM
Siren policy is the entire county.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: MSR041933 on November 05, 2018, 10:30:44 PM
The name of that town makes me snicker.

Here are some other TN town names that make me laugh:
- Soddy-Daisy
- Bucksnort
- McBurg
- Coble
Can we add “Bonertown” to that list? Very small community on the AL\TN boarder.* It’s pronounced BON-NER TOWN” but due to the spelling it constantly gets butchered by out of towners
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 05, 2018, 10:31:35 PM
I’m definitely watching the Kingston Springs area right now.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: MSR041933 on November 05, 2018, 10:33:30 PM
I don’t think I ever recall seeing tornado polygons over such a large area covering separate counties
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Volduff64 on November 05, 2018, 10:37:34 PM
Things are really picking up now the whole line from Alabama border to Hickman county starting to have rotating storms
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 05, 2018, 10:40:50 PM
Correct me if I’m wrong but this line actually looks like it’s strengthening.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: EastTNWX on November 05, 2018, 10:43:04 PM
Correct me if I’m wrong but this line actually looks like it’s strengthening.

This is what the evolution to a bow echo looks like.  It's a thing of beauty.  Obviously it isn't good for chasing tornadoes but that threat wasn't really there anyway. 
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Volduff64 on November 05, 2018, 10:43:35 PM
It looks like the line from Memphis has caught the front line and it is producing a lot of instability
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Clay on November 05, 2018, 10:47:23 PM
Charles, any reports over you direction? Cell near Gallatin is really bowing out.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Charles L. on November 05, 2018, 10:48:39 PM
Charles, any reports over you direction? Cell near Gallatin is really bowing out.

So far no, but it is looking nasty. Wouldn’t be shocked if we hear of some trees and/or power lines down soon.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 05, 2018, 10:58:17 PM
Gotta be honest, I was not expecting a look like this.
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: VandyMachine on November 05, 2018, 11:04:46 PM
That's a lot of lightning southwest of Nashville...
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on November 05, 2018, 11:05:58 PM
This really fired up.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Lcwthrnut on November 05, 2018, 11:16:54 PM
Had some pretty good wind gusts here and a ton of rain. Few rumbles of thunder. Have some people in town reporting power outage.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Beth on November 05, 2018, 11:21:19 PM
We had heavy rain and a little thunder and lightening. But I think the heavier stuff is past us in South Dickson.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Clay on November 05, 2018, 11:24:20 PM
Confirmed tornado near Santa Fe.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on November 05, 2018, 11:26:35 PM
“At 1118 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located 14 miles northwest of
Columbia, or near Williamsport, moving northeast at 50 mph.”


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Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on November 05, 2018, 11:33:49 PM
Very nervous for my family in Franklin right now.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on November 05, 2018, 11:44:36 PM
Coming my way.

“At 1140 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located near Thompson's
Station, moving northeast at 50 mph.”


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Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on November 05, 2018, 11:45:21 PM
I work in and around the Ladd Park subdivision area every day and it is currently taking a direct hit. Debris signature on radar.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mmryan on November 05, 2018, 11:46:12 PM
Is the Thompson station tornado going towards Smyrna? My sattelite keeps going out.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on November 05, 2018, 11:59:36 PM
Is the Thompson station tornado going towards Smyrna? My sattelite keeps going out.

It's heading ENE to NE so I would go ahead and seek shelter.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on November 06, 2018, 12:00:28 AM
We sheltered in the closet. I believe we’re in the clear north side of Nolensville


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Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mudaddict on November 06, 2018, 12:09:42 AM
Eww confirmed tornado on ground right down the road headed towards my house..yikes
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: NismoWx on November 06, 2018, 12:11:34 AM
I'm up.. Good grief, that escalated quickly. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181106/90a732aaa65f9d61f7a88d2f6f077d63.jpg)

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Title: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on November 06, 2018, 12:11:41 AM
Call me old fashioned, but something doesn’t set right with me when the NWS says “confirmed” on radar signature alone. I’m sure debris signatures are reliable.

Not wishing any harm or damage on anyone, but there better be a damage path tomorrow, with the wording we’ve been getting on warnings tonight.

Hoping/praying for the best in terms of effects from this tonight as it went through populated areas, and we should be hearing something soon if there’s been significant damage.


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Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Coach B on November 06, 2018, 12:15:51 AM
They tweeted out that at this time of year leaves could be the cause of debris signatures.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Jilly on November 06, 2018, 12:19:13 AM
Just now getting thunder near DeKalb/White Co. line HWY 70-ish.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: VandyMachine on November 06, 2018, 12:21:42 AM
Very strong rotation about to cross 231 south of Murfreesboro.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on November 06, 2018, 12:27:18 AM
I wonder how well this line will hold once it arrives here at 5am
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: VandyMachine on November 06, 2018, 12:29:12 AM
That rotation south of Murfreesboro is getting a little too close for comfort.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mudaddict on November 06, 2018, 12:32:38 AM
16k debris signature..eek
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: vanster67 on November 06, 2018, 12:33:40 AM
hope all is wellwest of me everyone stay safe .  any chance this stuff might weaken before it comes into Monterey.  we still have a dewpoint of 63..
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: mudaddict on November 06, 2018, 12:39:12 AM
Confirmed house destroyed in Christiana area, according to news.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: VandyMachine on November 06, 2018, 12:42:00 AM
Looks like the circulation is going to go to my north....I hope..
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on November 06, 2018, 12:49:27 AM
“RUTHERFORD         TN   EMERGENCY MNGR 

            HOUSE COMPLETELY COLLAPSED AT 8085 MIDLAND ROAD IN
            CHRISTIANA...POSSIBLE TORNADO “


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Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: VandyMachine on November 06, 2018, 01:02:02 AM
The last few radar loops looked really bad for Auburntown/ N Cannon and S Dekalb Counties.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Jilly on November 06, 2018, 01:03:38 AM
am E of Smithville near Johnson's Chapel. Definitely keeping an eye....
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: cgauxknox on November 06, 2018, 04:31:17 AM
We lost power in West Knoxville around 4:45 AM and it's still out now with rain continuing, although the wind seems to have moved east of us.  Between the storm and the time change it feels like time to be up and working, so I'm into my work day for as long as the laptop battery and hotspot hold up, or until we get power back on.  Looking over the posts from overnight I hope everybody is safe!
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: JayCee on November 06, 2018, 05:08:50 AM
Storms roared through here a little after 5 a.m. (which shows how fast they were moving). Power blinked, but remained on.  Heard several crashes in the woods nearby, but too dark to see what might have fallen.  Gusts near 50 mph were reported, but it sounds more like 100 mph when you're surrounded by trees.

Breezy conditions continue with some light rain falling. Hope everyone was safe and sustained no damage overnight. 
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: cgauxknox on November 06, 2018, 06:32:53 AM
Damage around here was odd.  I ventured out to find hot coffee for my wife and while our neighborhood is virtually untouched aside from lots of wet leaves covering everything, around the corner a big section of privacy fence was blown down and out into the road.  There was other damage in that immediate area with big signs torn down, but only one big limb in the roadway.  It looks like what you normally see with a micro-burst type of event because of the small footprint of damage.  Did we have that kind of behavior with this system?
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: NismoWx on November 06, 2018, 06:43:50 AM
I grew up in Christiana near Midland. Still trying to contact old neighbors. Our road was right under the circulation but it's unclear if it touched down on that road.


An interesting observation I made last night..

My girlfriend's iPhone sounded the TOR Warning when Rutherford County was issued. My S7 didn't sound until the polygon was redrawn to include my phone's precise location, which was 5ft away from her iPhone.

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Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: cgauxknox on November 06, 2018, 08:06:10 AM
Aaaaand the power is back on!  This was about a 5 hour outage for us, longer than what we normally experience as a result of storms.  I hope everybody else is recovering and cleaning up well this morning.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on November 06, 2018, 08:20:46 AM
I also lost power for about an hour last night. I somehow managed to sleep through the whole thing. We got over an inch of rain in about 10 minutes. Honestly the flash flooding was worse than the wind here. I had higher winds with the warm front Sunday afternoon.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on November 06, 2018, 08:43:06 AM
I assume surveys will determine where any tornado damage took place last night and any path(s).

I still take issue with the NWS stating in the warning text that a tornado was "confirmed" and then the wording clarifies that it was "confirmed by radar." Shortly after that, it was conjectured that the "debris signature" might have just been autumn leaves blowing around...

I did see maybe what they were seeing on the CC scan last night, but it didn't look like the tight TDS "dot" I've seen in the past. It seemed more diffused than that. So, probably, a lot of it was falling leaves pulled up into the circulation (there was certainly that)... though not necessarily a tornado making it to the ground, except for perhaps some brief touchdowns, which should still be assessed. Perhaps, it might yet be determined that a weak tornado did have a long track last night and the TDS was accurate all that time.

But, to me, "confirmed" is a strong word. That means you can say it's been... well... "confirmed." If it turns out that this was based on what turned out to be a debatable radar signature, then that weakens the force of that word.

When breaking news occurs, it's typically described initially as "unconfirmed reports." When an agency "confirms" it, that should give credibility that it really happened.

Ok- I'll get off my soap box. Hope for the best for anyone dealing with storm damage.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on November 06, 2018, 10:18:07 AM
Sad news to report... there was a fatality in Christiana last night. Apparent tornado that destroyed the house.

https://www.wkrn.com/weather/woman-killed-in-christiana-as-storms-roll-across-middle-tennessee/1575695745 (https://www.wkrn.com/weather/woman-killed-in-christiana-as-storms-roll-across-middle-tennessee/1575695745)


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Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 06, 2018, 10:54:36 AM
I talked to my son last night who lives in Nashville just as the storms were about to move in. He said the NWS was concerned about areas north of 40. I told him they know what they are doing but I would watch the broken up cells forming to the SW and moving south of 40.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: EastTNWX on November 06, 2018, 11:04:55 AM
Our power went out for a few minutes last night due to the winds.  No thunder or lightning to speak of.  Looks like 1 possible tornado in TN and 5 total.  Glad it ended up not being bad, wish I didn't stay up so late monitoring things though.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Clay on November 06, 2018, 11:19:30 AM
Preliminary EF-2 rating assigned to Christiana Tornado.

NWS Nashville Twitter:
Quote
One of our survey teams is down in Christiana. Unfortunately there is one confirmed fatality. Preliminary EF-2 rating with 135 mph winds. There were injuries too, waiting on additional information.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Eric on November 06, 2018, 11:46:44 AM
I believe the concept of airmass modification was proven yesterday.  It took a long time, but Mid TN jumped from a 52F dew point to mid 60s before the line of storms rolled through.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: WXHD on November 06, 2018, 11:56:02 AM
OHX needs to do something about the sirens. They are all linked and sound at the same time. We’re starting to tune them out and sleep through them since they don’t sound with any relevancy to our safety.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Charles L. on November 06, 2018, 12:36:22 PM
OHX needs to do something about the sirens. They are all linked and sound at the same time. We’re starting to tune them out and sleep through them since they don’t sound with any relevancy to our safety.

Not OHX’s responsibility. That is up to each county/council elected officials.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Curt on November 06, 2018, 12:47:34 PM
Not OHX’s responsibility. That is up to each county/council elected officials.
Exactly. Each county has a disaster official that controls how sirens react.bit can be done too. Shelby Co- the largest county by land size in the state- does an amazing job to sound the alarm only in the polygon warned area.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Eric on November 06, 2018, 01:47:53 PM
To add to the siren debate, most of the sirens were installed during the period of OLD warning standards, i.e. whole county warnings.  To reconfigure the system would take time and money, both of which most municipalities don't have.  I had several people complain about sirens wailing when they weren't anywhere close to a warning.  The system(s) need to be overhauled, for sure.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: cbrentv318 on November 07, 2018, 05:27:26 PM
I live about two miles from the touchdown area in Christiana Tn.  (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181107/8b00f8478f96d534a761cbb0aee94a74.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181107/a21c86740fa051c2c6ed48bb0318f1cd.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181107/836582074f69d769d134f1780b0a05dc.jpg)


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Title: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on November 08, 2018, 05:54:29 AM
Storm surveys...  https://www.weather.gov/media/ohx/txt/110518pns.txt (https://www.weather.gov/media/ohx/txt/110518pns.txt)

 https://www.weather.gov/ohx/20181105 (https://www.weather.gov/ohx/20181105)

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Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: JayCee on November 08, 2018, 07:44:42 AM
I live about two miles from the touchdown area in Christiana Tn.  (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181107/8b00f8478f96d534a761cbb0aee94a74.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181107/a21c86740fa051c2c6ed48bb0318f1cd.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181107/836582074f69d769d134f1780b0a05dc.jpg)


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Strange to see so much damage to man-made structures, but no damage to surrounding trees.  I suppose the leaves being mostly gone helped since there was less weight and/or less leaves to catch the wind.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on November 08, 2018, 08:47:35 AM
Strange to see so much damage to man-made structures, but no damage to surrounding trees.  I suppose the leaves being mostly gone helped since there was less weight and/or less leaves to catch the wind.

I noticed that too. The impact of wind hitting a larger surface area broadside can make a difference. Also- how well were these homes anchored/constructed? With rating "only" up to EF2, I take it not very.

Of course, the trees we're seeing in the pictures might not have been in the path of most intense vortex winds, where the unfortunate houses were.
Title: Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
Post by: JayCee on November 08, 2018, 08:53:42 AM
I noticed that too. The impact of wind hitting a larger surface area broadside can make a difference. Also- how well were these homes anchored/constructed? With rating "only" up to EF2, I take it not very.

Of course, the trees we're seeing in the pictures might not have been in the path of most intense vortex winds, where the unfortunate houses were.

Good points.  Also, upon closer inspection, I did see some rather large limbs on the ground in one photo. 

Speaking of limbs, the storms yesterday morning pruned all the dead branches out of my trees for me.  Plenty of fuel for the fire pit over the coming weeks.  Thanks, Ma Nature.