Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Tropical Spin Zone => Topic started by: cgauxknox on October 08, 2018, 06:32:19 AM

Title: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: cgauxknox on October 08, 2018, 06:32:19 AM
We'll probably end up changing the subject name soon once the storm is officially a hurricane, but since we're at TS strength right now we'll start there.  This is a quickly developing storm with potential landfall as either a strong Cat 2 or even weak Cat 3 in around 48 hours.  This isn't a long-track storm coming off the coast of Africa that allows people time to prepare, which may lead to more challenges for evacuations and other preparations.  As of this morning Florida has already declared a state of emergency. 

Not to be forgotten, the current track takes this storm across the Carolinas after landfall on the Gulf coast.  It shouldn't be anything near the rainfall they saw from Florence, but with so many areas still working to dry out from that storm the last thing they need is another round of tropical rainfall.  This may be one where the real story is on the opposite coast from the landfall location.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: NashRugger on October 08, 2018, 09:55:45 AM
Officially a hurricane as of the 11am EDT advisory. Centerline of the path is still Tyndall AFB/Mexico Beach in Bay County.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Thundersnow on October 08, 2018, 11:34:14 AM
Forecast to be a major hurricane (cat 3) by tomorrow evening, with another day out in the Gulf before making landfall some time Wednesday...
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Charles L. on October 08, 2018, 12:37:13 PM
Latest pass recon found a pressure of 978 mb. So this thing may still be rapidly strengthening.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: JayCee on October 08, 2018, 12:40:27 PM
Wow, we really may be looking at another Opal. 
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: cgauxknox on October 08, 2018, 02:27:02 PM
Mandatory evacuations have already been ordered.  This is one that may be very scary when we wake up tomorrow morning.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: joemomma on October 08, 2018, 03:05:05 PM
Fantastic.  I have to travel to Georgia for work tomorrow morning, not returning until Thursday.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 08, 2018, 03:40:42 PM
Panama City looks to be bullseye at the moment.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: StormNine on October 08, 2018, 06:15:38 PM
The primary threat from Michael is probably going to be Wind due to its rapid strength and fast motion.  Significant surge will be a threat near and to the right of landfall as well.  The Carolinas don't need the extra rain that Michael will bring.

The  Euro shows 50-60+ across its entire path from landfall all the way to the Coastal Carolinas. Even 50MPH winds will take down a lot of trees, loss debris, and powerlines in the Carolinas.  There will be a lot of power outages with this one and a swath of Florida and Southern Georgia may have Icestorm 1994 style power outages.     
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Susan on October 08, 2018, 07:13:54 PM
Models appear to still be moving the landfall west.  Looks like 30A is in the bullseye now.

Read that wrong, moved east!
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 09, 2018, 04:34:21 AM
The primary threat from Michael is probably going to be Wind due to its rapid strength and fast motion.  Significant surge will be a threat near and to the right of landfall as well.  The Carolinas don't need the extra rain that Michael will bring.

The  Euro shows 50-60+ across its entire path from landfall all the way to the Coastal Carolinas. Even 50MPH winds will take down a lot of trees, loss debris, and powerlines in the Carolinas.  There will be a lot of power outages with this one and a swath of Florida and Southern Georgia may have Icestorm 1994 style power outages.   
Something to watch for is what the peak intensity is-  that will tell the story regarding surge.  Opal got to 150mph just hours before landfall.  While the storm "only" was 115mph at landfall, the surge was unable to subside.

Let's contrast that with Charley, which hit the Florida west coast (also a surge prone area) at peak intensity.  The surge was not as much of a component since the deep water didn't get piled onto the continental shelf because Charley wasn't at peak intensity yet.  Harvey might also go into thris category.

Surge is a function of fetch (large eyes produce higher values), intensity in the hours leading up to and at the time the storm arrives on the continental shelf, topography of the shoreline, and landfall intensity.

If a given storm arrives on the continental shelf at peak intensity with a significant fetch, it will pile huge amounts of water onto the continental shelf.  If it makes landfall within a reasonable time and maintains a reasonably high intensity (even if it appears to collapse relative to peak intensity - Katrina, Opal, Ivan could all fit this bill), then there will be a large surge given a large enough shelf.

The large shelf is a larger "staging area" for the storm to pile up water and that's why the northern GOMEX and the Florida west coast are very surge prone (as opposed to the Florida Gold Coast and Keys).

Here's the good thing with Michael thusfar-- peak intensity is "only" forecast to be 120 (not 150 or higher) and that peak may well occur when the storm has already come upon the continental shelf.

The bad news is that could be off the table if we see a period of rapid intensification today and that's not something I'd pull off the table as the core is now well organized and is forecast to go into an area of reduced shear.  There is at least some modeling and climo that would argue in that direction.

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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Charles L. on October 09, 2018, 06:52:56 AM
Michael now up to 100 mph Cat 2. Latest pass is showing even lower pressure drops, so this thing isnít slowing down.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: cgauxknox on October 09, 2018, 07:08:35 AM
I had concerns yesterday about the potential strength of this storm when the interaction with the west end of Cuba didn't seem to slow it down, which usually happens when you see even part of a storm cross land.  All the reports I'm seeing this morning expect it to be a landfalling Cat 3 sometime on Wednesday.  In a way we're very lucky that it's moving so quickly so it doesn't have more time over the Gulf to strengthen.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Thundersnow on October 09, 2018, 10:00:00 AM
110 mph as of latest advisory... on the verge of reaching Cat 3 strength.


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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Susan on October 09, 2018, 10:39:24 AM
I am concerned he is not going to make that eastward turn.  Areas west of Destin have not evacuated, last minute evacs will be difficult as most will have to cross bridges and it may to late.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: wfrogge on October 09, 2018, 11:53:11 AM
Just barely below Cat 3 status now... by 1mph
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Charles L. on October 09, 2018, 12:52:14 PM
Michael is looking like an absolute monster at the moment.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: JayCee on October 09, 2018, 12:54:38 PM
I am concerned he is not going to make that eastward turn.  Areas west of Destin have not evacuated, last minute evacs will be difficult as most will have to cross bridges and it may to late.

Considering it's increasing forward speed, any slight turn in another direction could be a big problem, similar to Charley in 2004 that literally flew across the Florida peninsula in less than 10 hours.   
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Curt on October 09, 2018, 02:00:08 PM
Euro has gusts to 150 along the coast between Panama City and Appalachicola.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181009/1a2b10f3d14166d86226375617c43c27.jpg)
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Charles L. on October 09, 2018, 03:42:55 PM
Latest exapolated pass has Michael down to 957 mb. We will see what the vortex says, but he is definitely showing signs of further strengthening. How low will he go?
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: NashRugger on October 09, 2018, 03:49:06 PM
I'm really hoping for a scenario where he curves just enough and comes in east of Panama City My folks have a beach house adjacent to St. Andrews State Park and I've gone there for all 31 years I've been alive. There's a solid chance now, even with protections, it'll be all gone before sunset tomorrow.

Meteorologically though, the likelihood of a daytime landfall is a good thing because we could get amazing footage and real-time damage info.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: cgauxknox on October 09, 2018, 04:00:32 PM
We're now officially at a 120mph Cat 3  ::wow::
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Charles L. on October 09, 2018, 05:26:23 PM
951.8 last pass (extrapolated) I know this term gets thrown around a lot, but I think we are seriously seeing rapid intensification take place. The pressure has dropped like a rock these past 4 hours.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Susan on October 09, 2018, 06:51:55 PM
Still no eastward turn.
Track stays the same.
Wind speed the same.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 09, 2018, 07:58:06 PM
I am concerned he is not going to make that eastward turn.  Areas west of Destin have not evacuated, last minute evacs will be difficult as most will have to cross bridges and it may to late.
I just found out-  it's fall break here - that we know several people who even stayed at 30A!  I can't believe they even allowed people to stay.  They were apparently told in Blue Mountain that they would be fine due to their elevation off the water. 

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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: dwagner88 on October 09, 2018, 08:07:39 PM
Michael is rolling up his sleeves right now. Looks like rapid intensification now. Honestly that might not be the worst thing. Better for it to happen now than right before landfall. It may have time to peak early then weaken some.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Curt on October 09, 2018, 08:10:29 PM
Canít remember when Panama City was the epicenter for a major hurricane. 30A may not be the same for awhile. Away from the coast itís moving so fast with the major trough that flooding like a few weeks ago isnít likely.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 09, 2018, 08:11:49 PM
Just as a PSA for anyone who might be staying and feeling comfortable in their "big" condo-- this is from Ivan and there are many more of these. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181010/c7cda9afb35254197121effdf1e0fbf5.jpg)

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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: snowdog on October 09, 2018, 08:25:38 PM
Following Ryan Maue on Twitter and he is following the rapid intensification. Pretty impressive.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 09, 2018, 08:36:04 PM
Canít remember when Panama City was the epicenter for a major hurricane. 30A may not be the same for awhile. Away from the coast itís moving so fast with the major trough that flooding like a few weeks ago isnít likely.
Well, the right front quadrant will still pack a surge punch in the immediate vicinity of the eyewall and the wind could be horrific.

Just found out an hour or so ago that several people from Germantown and Collierville were told (by the condo staff) that they'd be safe in Blue Mountain along 30A due to their unique location with respect to elevation above the Gulf.... but noone said anything about the winds. 

I see people (on FB) have stayed in Sandestin as well and it looks like some in PCB. 

Lots of people stayed in Gulf Shores/Orange Beach but not a big deal there.  Perfect vantage point unless you're in a vulnerable spot for back flow from Perdido Bay.

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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 09, 2018, 08:37:33 PM
Canít remember when Panama City was the epicenter for a major hurricane. 30A may not be the same for awhile. Away from the coast itís moving so fast with the major trough that flooding like a few weeks ago isnít likely.
Last direct hit on PCB by a major was in the 1800s.  I guess that's why there was very little evacuation today-  that and the media didn't even know this storm existed until this afternoon. 

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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 09, 2018, 08:39:54 PM
Michael is rolling up his sleeves right now. Looks like rapid intensification now. Honestly that might not be the worst thing. Better for it to happen now than right before landfall. It may have time to peak early then weaken some.
I don't see much window for weakening if it's going through RI right now.  We're talking just a few hours now and hit towers are going up while the diurnal max is about to go down.  It doesn't look good. I think it may already be at Cat 4.

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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 09, 2018, 08:43:46 PM
We're due for a thread title update

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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mamMATTus on October 09, 2018, 09:03:28 PM
Surely this thing is NOT gonna go Cat 4. Iíve got a bad feeling a lot of people didnít evacuate.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Charles L. on October 09, 2018, 09:06:55 PM
Surely this thing is NOT gonna go Cat 4. Iíve got a bad feeling a lot of people didnít evacuate.

My dad has a cousin who lives in Mexico Beach, FL. She evacuated north to family in Chattanooga...but her husband stayed behind for some reason.  ::shrug::
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: jbmac25 on October 09, 2018, 09:08:14 PM
My dad has a cousin who lives in Mexico Beach, FL. She evacuated north to family in Chattanooga...but her husband stayed behind for some reason.  ::shrug::
Praying for him. Donít think that was a good idea.


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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: schneitzeit on October 09, 2018, 09:13:00 PM
Just as a PSA for anyone who might be staying and feeling comfortable in their "big" condo-- this is from Ivan and there are many more of these. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181010/c7cda9afb35254197121effdf1e0fbf5.jpg)

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Everyone on the panhandle needs to see this photo. Might make people get the heck out of there last minute.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Charles L. on October 09, 2018, 09:16:53 PM
943.7! extrapolated...I wouldnít be shocked if we have a Cat 4 on our hands.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mamMATTus on October 09, 2018, 09:30:28 PM
Is Auburn, AL in the clear? I would think so for the most part besides some wind and rain.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: StormNine on October 09, 2018, 09:43:53 PM
Is Auburn, AL in the clear? I would think so for the most part besides some wind and rain.

For the most part perhaps some gusty winds and locally heavy rain but they will be on the weaker side of Michael.  The hardest hit area for Alabama will be the Dothan area. 

The worst area looks to be Panama City/Apalachicola Florida and up into the far SW Corner of Georgia based on the current NHC track.  Anyone who decides to stick around in that zone needs to treat tomorrow as an all-day tornado warning.  Michael's fast motion and compact style are signs that Michael will be a very efficient wind machine. 
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 09, 2018, 09:45:08 PM
Surely this thing is NOT gonna go Cat 4. Iíve got a bad feeling a lot of people didnít evacuate.
I can confirm that a LOT of people did not evacuate--including tourists-- and I'm wondering how in the **** this happened?

The media largely ignored this yesterday - but still.

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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 09, 2018, 09:52:13 PM
Everyone on the panhandle needs to see this photo. Might make people get the heck out of there last minute.
That's just one -  there are several from Perdido Key/ Orange Beach that had to be imploded.  I believe even one of the first few Phoenix buildings had its foundation washed out and had to go.

That's the thing -  if the sand goes from under the structure and the pilings aren't enough-- the building is structurally in major trouble.

I've heard stories from that storm of waves breaking over a 5th floor condo balcony.  That may be myth but there was a data buoy not far offshore that recorded a legit 55 foot wave.

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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 09, 2018, 10:04:15 PM
NHC has upped its landfall intensity forecast to Cat 4-  looks like no real track changes coming.

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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: harlequin on October 10, 2018, 01:09:38 AM
Honestly shocked to see rain bands already spreading into coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle. Probably will be a couple devastated beach towns.

I'm not basing this on any modeling, but many landfalling NGOM hurricanes do weaken a decent bit right before landfall at least wind wise. Surge is another story. Even some of the weakening wind ones like Katrina and Ivan still produced severe wind damage in MS and parts of FL though. Hurricane Frederic is a notable example of one that strengthened through landfall and obviously Camille. 
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 10, 2018, 02:13:30 AM
Category 4 at 1am-  getting into crazy territory now. 

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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: vanster67 on October 10, 2018, 04:09:11 AM
Doggone,  140 mph, and a strong cat 4.  Hearing maybe that alot of people stayed.  Bad choice.  this is the worst ever, unprecedented  they say.  prayers for all.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: NismoWx on October 10, 2018, 04:42:49 AM
Finally got through the stubbornness and convinced my sister to evacuate Niceville... Only took a CAT 4. Ugh.

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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Charles L. on October 10, 2018, 04:49:36 AM
And he is STILL strengthening. Last pass was 940 mb. They are about to hit the core again, so letís see what he says now...

936.9 extrapolated this pass, and a surface wind reading right at 140 mph too. Unreal.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: JayCee on October 10, 2018, 04:52:39 AM
Our mid-long models still struggle with hurricane intensity forecasts.  Several days ago, they were showing a Cat 1 coming into the coast.  Now we've got a monster on our hands.  At least they did catch on, but still never showed a Cat 4 at any point that I recall.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 10, 2018, 05:37:20 AM
Our mid-long models still struggle with hurricane intensity forecasts.  Several days ago, they were showing a Cat 1 coming into the coast.  Now we've got a monster on our hands.  At least they did catch on, but still never showed a Cat 4 at any point that I recall.
HWRF and Euro were showing upper 930s yesterday.   We've now got a 937mb Cat 4 on our hands.   The info was out there, people just didn't listen.  It didn't help yet the news was obsessed with "another matter" on Monday but that's the way it goes. 

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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 10, 2018, 05:39:19 AM
And he is STILL strengthening. Last pass was 940 mb. They are about to hit the core again, so letís see what he says now...

936.9 extrapolated this pass, and a surface wind reading right at 140 mph too. Unreal.
Still looking like PCB area for landfall.  Could be scary times.

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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: StormNine on October 10, 2018, 05:52:29 AM
The latest National Hurricane Center still shows Michael as a CAT 1 hurricane about halfway between Albany and Warner Robbins in SW GA. 
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Charles L. on October 10, 2018, 05:53:01 AM
933.5 now! What a monster. This is going to be catastrophic.

Make that 931.7 sheesh. And, not surprising, winds are increasing too. Wouldnít be shocked if they go up to 145 mph by the 7 AM update.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Thundersnow on October 10, 2018, 05:54:54 AM
Even at 140 mph, latest advisory says, ďSome additional strengthening is possible before landfall.Ē

Cat 5 would be >= 157 mph. Hopefully it stays below that, but this is already a devastating potential.


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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: StormNine on October 10, 2018, 06:25:34 AM
Even at 140 mph, latest advisory says, ďSome additional strengthening is possible before landfall.Ē

Cat 5 would be >= 157 mph. Hopefully it stays below that, but this is already a devastating potential.


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Based on its current track and trends it looks like Panama City Beach, Panama City and areas just east of there will be in the dreaded NE quadrant.  Anyone who stayed is going to see one heck of a wind show (think of something like the Gallatin 2006 or perhaps even the Murfreesboro TN 2009 tornado but for several hours instead of one instant event).  There will be a corridor of tornado-like damage from Panama City up to about Bainbridge, GA.  This doesn't even factor in the surge threat on the coast which will be nothing to mess up. 

One thing to factor is that there are a lot of mobile homes in the FL Panhandle and far SW Georgia.  Those are absolutely going to be one of the worst places to be during this event.  No one from Albany, GA to the Florida coast needs to be a mobile home during this event. 
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: WXHD on October 10, 2018, 06:31:52 AM
Itís going through Georgia as a Cat 1. Amazing.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Charles L. on October 10, 2018, 06:38:23 AM
Down to 933 mb based off this dropsonde due to the 21 knot wind it encountered on the way down.[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: NismoWx on October 10, 2018, 06:42:26 AM
Where did this info come from? I can't find the source on the NHC website. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181010/6568f3841b73db684bbbdb9fad1b0a0f.jpg)

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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Thundersnow on October 10, 2018, 06:45:29 AM
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Charles L. on October 10, 2018, 06:46:23 AM
Pretty sure flight level winds are right at 155 mph, not surface. That photo is very misleading by WKRN.

New NHC update has Michael down to 933 mb and winds up to 145 mph.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Thundersnow on October 10, 2018, 06:48:34 AM
The new advisory says sustained at 145 mph.


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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: cgauxknox on October 10, 2018, 06:51:15 AM
Tropical Storm Warnings are in place all the way into central Georgia, with TS force winds predicted as far as NC.  It's also down to 933mb, which is a record low pressure for an October storm.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 10, 2018, 06:53:02 AM
(http://i67.tinypic.com/2qwczg0.jpg)
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: NismoWx on October 10, 2018, 06:57:20 AM
Pretty sure flight level winds are right at 155 mph, not surface. That photo is very misleading by WKRN.

New NHC update has Michael down to 933 mb and winds up to 145 mph.
Agreed, very misleading.

My sister and her husband/kids, and my mother are in the process of loading the cars to head here from Niceville. They have not made any effort to protect the house from wind or storm surge. I sure hope they have a good homeowners policy...

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Edit: they live half a mile from the bay.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: JayCee on October 10, 2018, 07:19:09 AM
Eye now within radar range.  Man--this is one for the history books.  And so sad it's going to slam through the Carolinas.  They are hurricane weary after Florence.  The one saving grace concerning Michael is his speed.  We won't see 20+ inches of rain, but 4-6" is bad enough. 

Post Merge: October 10, 2018, 07:22:04 AM
EarthCam's in the region of Michael's landfall.

https://www.earthcam.com/events/extremeweather/ (https://www.earthcam.com/events/extremeweather/)

Post Merge: October 10, 2018, 07:24:30 AM
(http://www.weather.gov/images/tae/graphicast/image2.png?fdbf3e7b26f7714dfb0e96f5d3b5f912)

WOW...first Cat 4 in the Florida panhandle in recorded history.  Didn't realize that.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 10, 2018, 07:27:09 AM
Where did this info come from? I can't find the source on the NHC website. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181010/6568f3841b73db684bbbdb9fad1b0a0f.jpg)

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OMG-  I enjoy a good storm but this just caused my stomach to turn.  It's almost onshore and I have so many memories in that area and the people down there.  Good thing that it's misleading but it's still just 11mph away and it will be pure devastation unless it falls apart quickly now. 

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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Thundersnow on October 10, 2018, 07:33:47 AM
Pretty sure flight level winds are right at 155 mph...

Is it just me, or does anyone else wonder how you maintain control of an aircraft in those conditions?


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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: BRUCE on October 10, 2018, 07:37:07 AM
Is it just me, or does anyone else wonder how you maintain control of an aircraft in those conditions?


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by staying in the eye of the storm ... were they collect the data ...
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: NismoWx on October 10, 2018, 07:37:58 AM
Is it just me, or does anyone else wonder how you maintain control of an aircraft in those conditions?


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Cajones grandes.

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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: ryandourius on October 10, 2018, 07:41:24 AM
Niceville should avoid a direct impact from the eye, but as these things make landfall their wind gradient expands rapidly. This essentially begins when a landfall has occurred. I would say it was a good call to ask your family to evacuate. 
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Charles L. on October 10, 2018, 07:45:05 AM
Is it just me, or does anyone else wonder how you maintain control of an aircraft in those conditions?


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Number 7 on this list!

https://www.hurricanehunters.com/faq.htm
Title: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Thundersnow on October 10, 2018, 07:45:27 AM
by staying in the eye of the storm ... were they collect the data ...

Pretty sure they have to fly THROUGH the eyewall to get to the eye.

EDIT- Looks like Charles has the answer in his link


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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 10, 2018, 07:45:52 AM
A group of people from Memphis we know that stayed at 30A just threw everything in the car and bolted at 4am.  I'd say that was a good call at this point.  They did get out of the path of the worst of it.  The upgrade to Cat 4 got them to pack up with haste in the middle of the night.

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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: wfrogge on October 10, 2018, 08:03:01 AM
We always hear the news interview folks that are riding out the storm and typically they seem prepared and have lived through a similar storm in the past.  Majority I see being interviewed today are not prepared and have no clue how bad itís about to get.   The one guy east of Destin that said his trailer will make it because ďitís tethered to the groundĒ all I can say is good luck
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Susan on October 10, 2018, 08:03:53 AM
I'm shocked the property manager/owner didn't make them leave.  Huge liability risk.

A group of people from Memphis we know that stayed at 30A just threw everything in the car and bolted at 4am.  I'd say that was a good call at this point.  They did get out of the path of the worst of it.  The upgrade to Cat 4 got them to pack up with haste in the middle of the night.

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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: BRUCE on October 10, 2018, 08:06:57 AM
Pretty sure they have to fly THROUGH the eyewall to get to the eye.

Maybe they fly at a high altitude above it to get there.

EDIT- Looks like Charles has the answer in his link


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spot on....
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 10, 2018, 08:08:14 AM
I'm shocked the property manager/owner didn't make them leave.  Huge liability risk.
Yes, the property management told them it was safe because where they stay sits on a big hill overlooking the beach.  Yes, but the wind--that wind.

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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 10, 2018, 08:09:26 AM
I can honestly say that this one is just sickening - I'm sure I'm not the only one here who feels a special attachment to the area. 

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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Thundersnow on October 10, 2018, 08:29:50 AM
I worry there might be some complacency in that particular stretch of coast. The bad ones have tended to hit closer to Pensacola and west from there. Destin, PCB, and points down coast from there have tended to have lower magnitude storms, Cat 1-2. So, those areas have tended to be able to lick their minor wounds and move on without too many serious effects. This one should be taken very seriously.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Charles L. on October 10, 2018, 08:30:18 AM
Woah, extrapolated 926.8 pressure just now!
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: BRUCE on October 10, 2018, 08:32:56 AM
Woah, extrapolated 926.8 pressure just now!
just fixing post that.  This thing is really getting its act together .... unreal
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: cgauxknox on October 10, 2018, 08:43:54 AM
Woah, extrapolated 926.8 pressure just now!
::wow::  ::faint:: ::wow:: ::faint:: ::wow:: ::faint::
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: dwagner88 on October 10, 2018, 08:44:48 AM
Monday evening when this was looking like a category 2 landfall I halfway considered going to SW GA or SE Alabama to chase. Iíve always wanted to experience true hurricane force winds. Iím now very glad I didnít go.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Skillsweather on October 10, 2018, 08:46:23 AM
The only good news is its moving fast so it will be in and out fast. Thats usually whats damaging about hurricanes is the substained winds.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: BRUCE on October 10, 2018, 08:49:26 AM
The only good news is its moving fast so it will be in and out fast. Thats usually whats damaging about hurricanes is the substained winds.
nit necessarily... in fact moving way it is is going increase the wind.. wouldnít surprise see landfall  150 155 mph wind
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 10, 2018, 08:56:53 AM
nit necessarily... in fact moving way it is is going increase the wind.. wouldnít surprise see landfall  150 155 mph wind
I concur with you -  forward speed only adds to the winds and its keeping the rain and upwelling from the storm itself from diluting the high octane rocket fuel that is the Gulf (anomolously warm Gulf). This will be the ultimate legacy of this very hot fall.

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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: lyngo on October 10, 2018, 09:57:06 AM
We left Saturday and got to Port St. Joe Saturday night which is pretty much in between Panama City and Apalachicola.  We were planning on staying the week but ended up leaving yesterday morning due to the forecast for him to reach "Cat 2" status.  It was clear to me from monitoring the situation that there was a decent chance Michael would reach Cat 3. 

I talked to several people on the beach before we left.  A few of them said they were going to "ride it out".  I only hope they changed their mind when they learned he had indeed reached Cat 3 status.  I've heard reports that many have still stayed behind and now it's too late to leave.

Luckily, I had the foresight to fill up the tank on Sunday before the word really got out or we could have been one of those families that ran out of gas trying to get back home.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Beth on October 10, 2018, 10:04:00 AM
Some of the live webcams I am watching are showing people standing on the beach watching it come in.  😳
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: dwagner88 on October 10, 2018, 10:06:20 AM
This is obviously of limited concern compared to the gulf coast, but models have upped rainfall amounts and winds slightly for this area tonight. Looks like 2Ē+ could be in order.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Coach B on October 10, 2018, 10:09:36 AM
We left Saturday and got to Port St. Joe Saturday night which is pretty much in between Panama City and Apalachicola.  We were planning on staying the week but ended up leaving yesterday morning due to the forecast for him to reach "Cat 2" status.  It was clear to me from monitoring the situation that there was a decent chance Michael would reach Cat 3. 

There will obviously be widespread damage. However the absolute worst of it looks like it might be from Tyndall AFB on the east side of PCB to Cape San Blas and Port St. Joe.  The Cape San Blas and Mexico Beach vacations areas may get wiped out.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 10, 2018, 10:09:46 AM
We left Saturday and got to Port St. Joe Saturday night which is pretty much in between Panama City and Apalachicola.  We were planning on staying the week but ended up leaving yesterday morning due to the forecast for him to reach "Cat 2" status.  It was clear to me from monitoring the situation that there was a decent chance Michael would reach Cat 3. 

I talked to several people on the beach before we left.  A few of them said they were going to "ride it out".  I only hope they changed their mind when they learned he had indeed reached Cat 3 status.  I've heard reports that many have still stayed behind and now it's too late to leave.

Luckily, I had the foresight to fill up the tank on Sunday before the word really got out or we could have been one of those families that ran out of gas trying to get back home.

Also hearing a lot of tourists stayed.  I wonder how many actually may have bolted in the middle of the night last night. 
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: lyngo on October 10, 2018, 10:12:59 AM
There will obviously be widespread damage. However the absolute worst of it looksn might be from Tyndall AFB on the east side of PCB to Cape San Blas and Port St. Joe.  The Cape San Blas and Mexico Beach vacations areas may get wiped out.

We were staying with the in-laws and they had rented a house right on the beach for the entire month.  They were heading toward Montgomery and planned to stay there a couple of days until they could get back to the beach house.  At this rate, there may not be anything for them to go back to if Michael keep making that right turn at the coast.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 10, 2018, 10:13:25 AM
There will obviously be widespread damage. However the absolute worst of it looksn might be from Tyndall AFB on the east side of PCB to Cape San Blas and Port St. Joe.  The Cape San Blas and Mexico Beach vacations areas may get wiped out.

This will be way overkill to wipe out Cape San Blas.  It's barely a strip of sand.  We stayed near the tip of the Cape once and all I could think is that this would be a terrible place to be in any hurricane- a tropical storm even.  There's literally no way out and you are very limited in terms of getting up in elevation (either naturally or via buildings).  There's a communications tower you could climb and hold onto for dear life but that would be a terrible ride even if you could get there before the water overwashed the base. 

This may even turn the Cape into an archipelago. 
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Beth on October 10, 2018, 10:15:17 AM
Our neighbors left at midnight to head home. They have 2 condoís there.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Charles L. on October 10, 2018, 10:31:41 AM
Latest dropsonde says Michael is down to 923 mb. Just incredible how rapidly he is strengthening this morning...and right before landfall.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: BRUCE on October 10, 2018, 10:45:25 AM
He is got to be pushing cat 5 now.  Winds should be catching up soon with the pressure drop... incredible...
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Susan on October 10, 2018, 10:46:44 AM
150 mph now.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: bluegrasspr on October 10, 2018, 10:51:58 AM
We were vacationing on Okaloosa Island, beachfront, until late Sunday night. On Tuesday morning, we got a text from the resort, saying everyone had to be out by 5 p.m. on Tuesday. The resort is 6 stories tall. However, everything is so flat on Okaloosa that I can't imagine much of the island surviving a storm of this magnitude. I just think of all of the people who live there year-round and how devastating this will be for them, as many will lose their homes and quite possibly their jobs/income during the long rebuilding process.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: BRUCE on October 10, 2018, 10:55:54 AM
Next pass ... projected pressure there saying could be close 922 mb. Pushing Andrew strength pressure wise ....
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: cgauxknox on October 10, 2018, 11:09:01 AM
150 mph sustained and reported gusts of 175; this thing was a marginal tropical storm what, 4 days ago?  Unbelievable.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: dwagner88 on October 10, 2018, 11:15:36 AM
One positive thing, this is a pretty small storm. Remember that Andrew caused relatively little damage outside the eyewall itself, but almost total destruction underneath it. I am hoping that the area of catastrophic damage will be similarly small with this storm.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Thundersnow on October 10, 2018, 11:17:15 AM
Starting to feel sick...

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: harlequin on October 10, 2018, 11:27:29 AM
918.3mb extrapolated. Incredible.

Labor Day - 892 at US landfall
Camille - 900 at US landfall
Katrina - 920 at USA landfall

This could be #3 or #4 lowest pressure on the US mainland if my Googling is correct.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Charles L. on October 10, 2018, 11:32:56 AM
Dropsonde says Michael is down to 919 mb. (922 mb with a 34 knot wind)
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mamMATTus on October 10, 2018, 11:52:09 AM
Iím not sure if Iíve ever seen a TWS signature inside the eyewall BEFORE landfall. Iím going to count that as some major foreshadowing...[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Thundersnow on October 10, 2018, 11:54:41 AM
Dropsonde says Michael is down to 919 mb. (922 mb with a 34 knot wind)

Strengthening at the worst possible time. Outer eye-wall is coming ashore it appears. It won't take much more bump in wind speed to reach Cat 5.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Thundersnow on October 10, 2018, 12:09:22 PM
Tyndall AFB to Mexico Beach getting the eye wall now... it must be horrendous there now.


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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: dwagner88 on October 10, 2018, 12:09:49 PM
Strengthening at the worst possible time. Outer eye-wall is coming ashore it appears. It won't take much more bump in wind speed to reach Cat 5.
If it does happen, it will be in a post-landfall study. Not enough time left now.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Thundersnow on October 10, 2018, 12:16:56 PM
Mexico Beach is ground zero- right eyewall- maximum winds and surge.

That community has more beach houses than high rises.


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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: JayCee on October 10, 2018, 12:17:38 PM
Eye of Michael is now onshore. 

The Gulf is a washing machine. . .

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/watersound/?cam=watersoundbeach (https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/watersound/?cam=watersoundbeach)
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Thundersnow on October 10, 2018, 12:18:21 PM
If it does happen, it will be in a post-landfall study. Not enough time left now.

That was the case with Andrew.

Eye is making landfall. The details of what has happened there will start coming in.


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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Charles L. on October 10, 2018, 12:24:55 PM
Even with the northern eyeball coming onshore, the pressure is STILL dropping. Extrapolated 917.6.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: JayCee on October 10, 2018, 12:25:11 PM
There area where Michael is making landfall is covered with pine forests.  140-150 mph winds will probably lay waste to much of it, and any homes around there will be bombarded by flying debris from the shredded trees. 
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Thundersnow on October 10, 2018, 12:32:19 PM
Footage coming in of storm surge inundation in Apalachicola. Not sure how far inland. Mexico Beach to Port St. Joe taking the brunt of this.


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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Charles L. on October 10, 2018, 12:36:55 PM
Many hear have heard of storm chaser Brett Adair. He had to abandon his truck due to storm surge and is said to be safety waiting out the hurricane in a home now, but no confirmation from Brett himself on this..so very nervous times right now.

He is in Port St. Joe btw.
Title: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Thundersnow on October 10, 2018, 12:37:50 PM
Tyndall in the eye. Mexico Beach has spent a extended amount of time in the eastern eye wall... with no reprieve... onshore winds (piling in the surge).

It appears PCB stays in the outer western eye wall where the winds remain offshore. Theyíre getting battered no doubt, but maybe not the worst of it.


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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Charles L. on October 10, 2018, 12:40:54 PM
The last HH plane decided to spend some extra time in the eye. Lowest, extrapolated, pressure they found was 917.1...also found FL winds of 150-152 knots.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: cgauxknox on October 10, 2018, 12:41:46 PM
Reporting 155mph sustained winds at official landfall just a few minutes ago. 
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Thundersnow on October 10, 2018, 12:42:18 PM
Measured wind speed has come in from Tyndall Air Force Base... 128 mph...


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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: dwagner88 on October 10, 2018, 12:45:28 PM
Wow. It really did strengthen all the way to landfall. 1 MPH short of Cat 5 now.
Edit: actually 2 mph. I thought it was 156+, itís actually 157+
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Thundersnow on October 10, 2018, 12:57:35 PM
Tyndall about to get back into the southern eye wall as Michael is getting fully onshore.


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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: dwagner88 on October 10, 2018, 01:02:37 PM
If there was ever an opportunity to photograph stadium effect from the ground in the US, it was this storm. I wonder if it happened.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: harlequin on October 10, 2018, 01:04:17 PM
Either the 3rd or 4th most intense landfalling US hurricane. Wow.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: ryandourius on October 10, 2018, 01:18:23 PM
Great live stream from Larry Posey. Intense!

https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/larry.posey.html
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: dwagner88 on October 10, 2018, 01:23:22 PM
The last estimated surface winds from the hurricane hunters have it at 158.8 in the south eyewall. That is cat 5. Post landfall as well. I donít know if those estimates can be used for official classification though.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: ryandourius on October 10, 2018, 01:26:27 PM
The last estimated surface winds from the hurricane hunters have it at 158.8 in the south eyewall. That is cat 5. Post landfall as well. I donít know if those estimates can be used for official classification though.

The would mean if they went with that, this is a 160 mph storm. Wow!
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: cgauxknox on October 10, 2018, 01:30:07 PM
The last estimated surface winds from the hurricane hunters have it at 158.8 in the south eyewall. That is cat 5. Post landfall as well. I donít know if those estimates can be used for official classification though.
I don't know what the official rating system requires but I don't think there will be any doubt that this was a Cat 5 storm in terms of impact.  Watching the live coverage it seems that the eye came on shore at the least populated part of the panhandle so while there will still be catastrophic damage across a wide area it really could have been much worse had it been a bit east or west.  The emerging story in the next several hours may be damage to the power grid that is expected to take weeks to restore along the coast and possibly to points inland.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mamMATTus on October 10, 2018, 01:42:24 PM
This thing is booking it! Canít believe how far inland it already is and itís barely weakened any.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Charles L. on October 10, 2018, 01:46:35 PM
This thing is booking it! Canít believe how far inland it already is and itís barely weakened any.

I wouldnít be shocked if it is still a strong Cat 1 or weak Cat 2 when it hits SW GA later on this afternoon.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 10, 2018, 01:50:16 PM
If there was ever an opportunity to photograph stadium effect from the ground in the US, it was this storm. I wonder if it happened.

I've seen one pic so far[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Thundersnow on October 10, 2018, 01:54:29 PM
The eye still has a well-defined presentation on radar considering the time it's been inland so far.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 10, 2018, 01:56:20 PM
The eye still has a well-defined presentation on radar considering the time it's been inland so far.

Yes, it does- I can't believe how well it still looks.  It's amazing to see the satellite presentation of a clear eye fully on land- it almost looks like a photoshop.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: ChrisPC on October 10, 2018, 02:01:50 PM
This is one of the rare times an intensity forecast busts upward. Plenty of times a Cat 4/5 weakens just before landfall. Rarely does a Cat 2 explode like this, even on land! Genuinely scary to think about.

Post Merge: October 10, 2018, 02:04:36 PM
If there was ever an opportunity to photograph stadium effect from the ground in the US, it was this storm. I wonder if it happened.

It has!

https://www.facebook.com/DerekBeasleyFox4/posts/1918026478291525
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 10, 2018, 02:05:57 PM
LOL at the 2pm update- eye is entirely on land- MSW- 150mph.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Thundersnow on October 10, 2018, 02:11:56 PM
This is one of the rare times an intensity forecast busts upward. Plenty of times a Cat 4/5 weakens just before landfall. Rarely does a Cat 2 explode like this, even on land! Genuinely scary to think about.

Post Merge: October 10, 2018, 02:04:36 PM
It has!

https://www.facebook.com/DerekBeasleyFox4/posts/1918026478291525

Noticed the comment on that post... "Buildings leveled and forest flattened."
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 10, 2018, 02:32:04 PM
Eye well inland. Good grief.


(http://i63.tinypic.com/50sirq.jpg)
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Curt on October 10, 2018, 02:32:15 PM
https://youtu.be/M35yVIuIqPU

Footage from Mexico Beach. Looks like it took the worst of it. PC was just fortunate enough to be on the west part sparing the most populated areas.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Thundersnow on October 10, 2018, 02:41:25 PM
Still well-defined eye about to cross I-10. Hopefully no one is trying to drive that stretch of interstate at this point.


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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: dwagner88 on October 10, 2018, 02:52:05 PM
That video is incredible. I never thought Iíd see footage like that from a GOM system in October. This thing has looked more like a W. Pacific typhoon. Itís been dealing with much worse conditions than Florence ever did and somehow has come out much stronger.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: NashRugger on October 10, 2018, 02:53:16 PM
There is a lot of damage on the far east end of the beach, namely Grand Lagoon and St. Andrews State Park.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: ryandourius on October 10, 2018, 03:12:04 PM
Amazing satellite loop as it was making landfall. Look how it grew right up until it hit land. Wow!

https://youtu.be/l3ume08BdG4
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: cgauxknox on October 10, 2018, 04:12:07 PM
30 miles west of Bainsbridge, GA and reports say Michael is STILL a 125mph Cat 3.  Unbelievable how much strength this storm is maintaining over land.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: schneitzeit on October 10, 2018, 04:18:53 PM
What is the potential for tornadic activity with this one?
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Thundersnow on October 10, 2018, 04:51:32 PM
Amazing satellite loop as it was making landfall. Look how it grew right up until it hit land. Wow!

https://youtu.be/l3ume08BdG4

You can see the eye was starting to clear even more just as it hit land. Makes me wonder what this would had done if it was still over open water at that point.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 10, 2018, 05:32:49 PM
Bret Adair is a certified idiot. If you have not seen his video look it up.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: StormNine on October 10, 2018, 05:33:41 PM
30 miles west of Bainsbridge, GA and reports say Michael is STILL a 125mph Cat 3.  Unbelievable how much strength this storm is maintaining over land.

This is the strongest storm to hit Georgia since the 1800s.  It is also the 3rd strongest in USA history beating out Hurricane Katrina for the 3rd place spot. 

Post Merge: October 10, 2018, 05:47:41 PM
Michael will likely still right on the CAT 1/2 border when it reaches the Albany area in the next few hours.  Still, have the potential for 95-100MPH gusts all the way up into the area for the next several areas.  I hope everyone in Southwestern GA got out of their mobile homes. 
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: wfrogge on October 10, 2018, 05:55:29 PM
Bret Adair is a certified idiot. If you have not seen his video look it up.

He isnít the only storm chasing idiot today.  A few guys have almost drowned and or nearly killed by debris. 
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: BRUCE on October 10, 2018, 05:57:06 PM
What is the potential for tornadic activity with this one?
yes  right of the center... spc has a 10 percent nader chance  enhanced risk
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Skillsweather on October 10, 2018, 06:01:23 PM
Bret Adair is a certified idiot. If you have not seen his video look it up.
I want to storm chase with someone like him lol. I like watching extreme weather. We all die someday anyways might as well live life on the edge sometimes at least when it comes to things you enjoy. Like i hate when watching storm chasers get near a tornado but could get a lot closer im like go forward! obviously their smarter and know to stay back lol. Id the person to get us all killed by saying forward.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: BRUCE on October 10, 2018, 06:14:34 PM
I want to storm chase with someone like him lol. I like watching extreme weather. We all die someday anyways might as well live life on the edge sometimes at least when it comes to things you enjoy. Like i hate when watching storm chasers get near a tornado but could get a lot closer im like go forward! obviously their smarter and know to stay back lol. Id the person to get us all killed by saying forward.
if. I wasnít married with family.  I be right there with him promise
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: dwagner88 on October 10, 2018, 07:05:20 PM
God the storm thread on American is a dumpster fire. What happened to that place? Reminds me of the dark days of the accuweather forums.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: wfrogge on October 10, 2018, 07:07:33 PM
I want to storm chase with someone like him lol. I like watching extreme weather. We all die someday anyways might as well live life on the edge sometimes at least when it comes to things you enjoy. Like i hate when watching storm chasers get near a tornado but could get a lot closer im like go forward! obviously their smarter and know to stay back lol. Id the person to get us all killed by saying forward.

You have no clue what you are wishing for. Put it to you this way, there is a guy still missing and you could be with him right now either dead, dying, or ok but unable to get to safety.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: schneitzeit on October 10, 2018, 07:10:22 PM
The El Reno disaster permanently changed the course of storm chasing as a hobby. Unfortunately, the lesson learned from that event was that not even the most professional chasers are invincible.

Better safe than sorry
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: wfrogge on October 10, 2018, 07:25:48 PM
Way off topic but folks think they could take a hit from a tornado or hurricane and wonder why other chasers don't just drive right in. I have been in the aftermath of an EF4 and helped search a field for missing persons at night. The screams, the smell, and the horror as you walk up to a dead body clinging onto a mattress.....  This is not a game
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Charles L. on October 10, 2018, 07:29:08 PM
Way off topic but folks think they could take a hit from a tornado or hurricane and wonder why other chasers don't just drive right in. I have been in the aftermath of an EF4 and helped search a field for missing persons at night. The screams, the smell, and the horror as you walk up to a dead body clinging onto a mattress.....  This is not a game

After seeing the Tupelo damage up close and personal in 2014 and having to play first responder is something I will never forget. Thankfully I didnít come across anyone dead, but there was someone injured...which was bad enough.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: JayCee on October 10, 2018, 07:35:10 PM
The screams, the smell, and the horror as you walk up to a dead body clinging onto a mattress.....  This is not a game

Perfect descriptive word for what it is like. 
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: StormNine on October 10, 2018, 07:47:02 PM
Nowadays there is a lot of competition between storm chasers from both other chasers and from Joe B. Public who wants to Facebook Live a Major Hurricane because he can and he wants to show his 300 Facebook Friends that he is a Mack Daddy Hurricane Warrior.  The result is that even people who know better are trying to get the most extreme coverage possible. Unfortunately, that leads to sometimes foolish decisions and will unfortunately eventually start leading to more people (public, chasers, and those who have to rescue them) being put in situations that are hazardous to their life. 
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Charles L. on October 10, 2018, 07:52:14 PM
Nowadays there is a lot of competition between storm chasers from both other chasers and from Joe B. Public who wants to Facebook Live a Major Hurricane because he can and he wants to show his 300 Facebook Friends that he is a Mack Daddy Hurricane Warrior.  The result is that even people who know better are trying to get the most extreme coverage possible. Unfortunately, that leads to sometimes foolish decisions and will unfortunately eventually start leading to more people (public, chasers, and those who have to rescue them) being put in situations that are hazardous to their life.

And, sadly, there is not a way to control this either.

Much like the chaser convergence we see every year in the Plains for the big High risk days...
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: JayCee on October 10, 2018, 08:14:35 PM
A landfalling hurricane of this magnitude is bad no matter where it hits, but the U.S. is very fortunate that Michael struck a very rural coastline, instead of a major metropolitan area.  Furthermore, Michael didn't give us nearly as much time as Florence to prepare and evacuate--developing and moving in much faster.  If there's a silver lining to this, I guess that could be it.  It could've been even worse. 

Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Thundersnow on October 10, 2018, 09:11:47 PM
From inside the eye of Michael...

https://youtu.be/zhGA0p_H02A




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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 10, 2018, 10:36:52 PM
God the storm thread on American is a dumpster fire. What happened to that place? Reminds me of the dark days of the accuweather forums.
The main moderator is apparently working long hours on political campaigns. 

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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 10, 2018, 10:40:03 PM
Nowadays there is a lot of competition between storm chasers from both other chasers and from Joe B. Public who wants to Facebook Live a Major Hurricane because he can and he wants to show his 300 Facebook Friends that he is a Mack Daddy Hurricane Warrior.  The result is that even people who know better are trying to get the most extreme coverage possible. Unfortunately, that leads to sometimes foolish decisions and will unfortunately eventually start leading to more people (public, chasers, and those who have to rescue them) being put in situations that are hazardous to their life.
The flipside being that we get some fantastic footage.  This new reality hit home when I saw that guy in the mall parking lot during the Tuscaloosa tornado.

For the record, I don't mind if people do it.  It's a stupid way to die but we also used to stand up in straight lines and walk towards each other while shooting (and I still can't figure out how people were that stupid).

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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: JayCee on October 11, 2018, 04:36:18 AM
Heavy rain falling this morning, as the outer northwest edge of Michael did manage to make it over the mountains into far eastern TN, and the front squeezes in from the west.  Interesting radar this morning with returns moving from west to east over the Plateau, and from southeast to northwest over the foothills.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/j7vp6w.gif)

As of 7 a.m. recorded .93" of rain, and it's still coming down at a good rate.  Nice soaking before fall arrives. 
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: dwagner88 on October 11, 2018, 06:55:08 AM
The cutoff for precip was between my house and work. Iíve got 2.50Ē in my gauge in Polk county and less than 0.30Ē IMBY. No sign of the cold front yet. Hopefully this is the last morning of the year where I had to run at temps over 70 at 5 AM.
Title: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Thundersnow on October 11, 2018, 06:56:30 AM
For the record, I don't mind if people do it.  It's a stupid way to die but we also used to stand up in straight lines and walk towards each other while shooting (and I still can't figure out how people were that stupid).

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Napoleonic tactics. (off topic, but since you brought it up). Close range engagement on the battlefield was a holdover from the days of hand to hand combat with swords and bayonets. Introduce firearms into the conflict, and it becomes a much bloodier affair. That was one of the reasons why the Civil War was as bad as it was. Battlefield tactic had to change with technology, but it took a while.

At any rate, your point is taken.


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Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: JayCee on October 12, 2018, 07:13:39 AM
The images coming from Mexico Beach and surrounding areas are heartbreaking.  Whole neighborhoods are just wiped out.  Massive tracks of pine forests are laid flat.  For those who live there, this has to be devastating.  Such beautiful and undeveloped coastal areas completely destroyed.   
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: cgauxknox on October 12, 2018, 07:23:16 AM
I caught some of TWC's coverage early this morning and like JayCee said, things are just completely devastated.  The reporters were making the point that the destruction they had on camera was not from surge, but from wind.  The eye wall at landfall was basically a giant EF3 tornado and everything it crossed got destroyed.  That was on the coast of Florida, and friends in Virginia have been posting updates of flooded roads and power outages for the last 24 hours, not to mention the flooding and other problems through the Carolinas, especially western NC from what I've read today.  I don't think anybody could have expected such a massive impact over such a big area, especially in October.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Greyhound on October 12, 2018, 07:36:07 AM
Found this weblink of aerial satellite from yesterday.  I've been using it all morning zooming in and checking on structures in Panama City I haven't heard any news about.  As expected, Panama City itself was damaged the most.  While the beach areas did sustain some damage, those areas mostly escaped with minimal damage....or at least what I have been able to tell from the pics.  https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/michael/index.html#11/30.1534/-85.6027

Also, on 30a.com, they did a live video drive from Watercolor (next to Seaside) all the way to Rosemary Beach yesterday, and it was pretty much damage free.

Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Thundersnow on October 12, 2018, 08:20:32 AM
When I was watching the radar of the eye come onshore, it appeared Mexico Beach stayed in the right eye wall as it passed. That area didn't even get the reprieve of the eye itself as the eye tracked in just up the beach toward the base at Tyndall. Maximum winds, maximum surge on that side of the eye. I was afraid for what was happening there, and the images coming out of that area bear this out.

That area isn't as developed with high rises like you see in Destin or PCB. There are a lot of beach house type structures. I've been through that area (many years ago), and it is beautiful, sort of a throwback old style beach town.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Charles L. on October 12, 2018, 09:08:38 AM
Thankfully my dadís relative did decide to evacuate to GA Wednesday morning, just hours before landfall.

Good thing too, cause from what they are hearing from others that lived close to them in Mexico Beach say that all the homes in their subdivision (which was 3 blocks from the coast) are completely gone.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Greyhound on October 12, 2018, 10:38:23 AM
Saw this on American earlier this morning showing the path of landfall.  It was from a Twitter post and I just did a screen shot of the pic.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Thundersnow on October 12, 2018, 11:04:32 AM
Saw this on American earlier this morning showing the path of landfall.  It was from a Twitter post and I just did a screen shot of the pic.

The crazy thing about that pic (assuming it hasn't been doctored, and I don't assume it has), you can actually make out the path a little out from the shore- presumably debris and stirred up muddy water from the rotation around the eye interacting land and sea.
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: mempho on October 12, 2018, 12:34:31 PM
Napoleonic tactics. (off topic, but since you brought it up). Close range engagement on the battlefield was a holdover from the days of hand to hand combat with swords and bayonets. Introduce firearms into the conflict, and it becomes a much bloodier affair. That was one of the reasons why the Civil War was as bad as it was. Battlefield tactic had to change with technology, but it took a while.

At any rate, your point is taken.


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Interesting.  It's just odd that guns were used in the Revolutionary War and noone had figured this out by the Civil War.  Clearly, between the Civil War and WWI, someone figured out the ingenious idea of digging trenches. 
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: Greyhound on October 12, 2018, 12:34:39 PM
The crazy thing about that pic (assuming it hasn't been doctored, and I don't assume it has), you can actually make out the path a little out from the shore- presumably debris and stirred up muddy water from the rotation around the eye interacting land and sea.

Wasn't doctored at all...that's what's amazing!!!  They made the same comment you did about the water around the shoreline.  Here's the link to the original post:

https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1050518980925030400
Title: Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
Post by: cgauxknox on October 12, 2018, 12:51:00 PM
Interesting.  It's just odd that guns were used in the Revolutionary War and noone had figured this out by the Civil War.  Clearly, between the Civil War and WWI, someone figured out the ingenious idea of digging trenches.
While this is admittedly getting way off topic I'll comment here that this was a case of tactics not keeping pace with technology.  In the Revolutionary War infantry were firing smooth-bore muskets with patch and ball ammunition and your odds of being struck with an aimed shot at 100 yards were relatively small.  In the American Civil War troops were firing minie-balls (named after the developer, and shaped more like a modern bullet than a ball) from rifled barrels with high levels of accuracy.  More accurate fire and more destructive ammunition meant that the same tactics led to massive casualties.

We see this happen throughout history.  Tanks were developed in WW1 because the machine gun made almost every infantry tactic to date obsolete and something had to break the stalemate of trench warfare that was no longer effective because of technology.  In WW2 the biggest change was air power.  Over the past 20 years we've seen an odd mix of technology versus tactics because the nation on nation large scale conflict that everybody had always trained for has, for now, been replaced by what are essentially broad guerrilla wars with small arms and improvised explosives aligned against incredible technical capacity.  Virtually every military in history has been perfectly trained and equipped to fight the previous war.