Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => General Weather => Topic started by: JayCee on August 21, 2018, 05:16:45 AM

Title: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on August 21, 2018, 05:16:45 AM
Bridging the gap between summer and winter. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on August 21, 2018, 05:43:03 AM
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on August 21, 2018, 06:11:04 AM
September & October are two of my favorite months for outdoor fun.  The heat of summer begins to wane with cooler, crisp days becoming more frequent.  Yet, there's still plenty of daylight to get out and enjoy nature, the grill, and the hammock.  Yeah, I do a little work on the house and yard, too; mainly in the form of gathering broken limbs and twigs to burn in the firepit while lying in the hammock.   ;)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on August 21, 2018, 06:51:34 AM
My favorite thing about fall is... its football time in Tennessee....
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Skillsweather on August 21, 2018, 05:01:08 PM
I have already noticed the mornings are darker. I always leave at same time and the past week its been dark dark out and before its usually pretty daylightish.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: justinmundie on August 21, 2018, 05:57:37 PM
Finally in my new house and finally getting a front through in Birmingham. I miss Nashville summer all ready.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Coach B on August 22, 2018, 07:37:30 AM
Early fall preview the next couple of days with lows down in the 50s in rural areas. Enjoy it because next week looks hot/normal. :)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on August 22, 2018, 08:23:59 AM
Walking from the car into the office this morning, it already has a much more pleasant feel.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on August 22, 2018, 10:21:36 AM
I'll take this weather for the whole month of September please. . . (with some rain thrown in from time to time). 

Quote
Thursday
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 78. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 58. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Coach B on August 23, 2018, 07:40:22 AM
I got down to 58 this morning. The hourly obs indicate fairly widespread 50s across the state outside of the UHIs.  ::applause::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on August 23, 2018, 05:21:50 PM
Mt. LeConte dropped to 37 this morning after only reaching the mid-50's yesterday. 


http://www.highonleconte.com/daily-posts (http://www.highonleconte.com/daily-posts)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: EastTNWX on August 24, 2018, 09:14:40 AM
55 this morning in Farragut, feels great! LeConte was 36 this morning, I believe.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on August 24, 2018, 09:49:06 AM
Another day and night of awesome weather for most before summer resurges.  Even so, it's nothing out of the ordinary.  Typical summer time heat/humidity with storms increasing as the week progresses.  Could be a lot worse in August. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on August 25, 2018, 11:01:33 AM
I don't mind the summer weather (even after enjoying the pleasant temps this week). Next weekend is Labor Day weekend, and summer's days are numbered.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on August 25, 2018, 01:11:21 PM
I don't mind the summer weather (even after enjoying the pleasant temps this week). Next weekend is Labor Day weekend, and summer's days are numbered.

The clock's a tickin'Ö.

https://days.to/autumn-or-fall/2018 (https://days.to/autumn-or-fall/2018)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: WXHD on August 25, 2018, 07:11:18 PM
The clock's a tickin'Ö.

https://days.to/autumn-or-fall/2018 (https://days.to/autumn-or-fall/2018)

Can the Mods do something about this guy?!? Trying to enjoy summer.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on August 25, 2018, 07:38:30 PM
Can the Mods do something about this guy?!? Trying to enjoy summer.

LOL...that's the point.  Better hurry... ;D


Besides...were just...

https://youtu.be/lMGaiSqOp58


And further it's....

https://youtu.be/9jK-NcRmVcw (https://youtu.be/9jK-NcRmVcw)






Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on August 26, 2018, 07:59:14 AM
Can the Mods do something about this guy?!? Trying to enjoy summer.
geat news for u... the latest euro looks hot. N dry moving forward ...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: StormNine on August 26, 2018, 12:51:20 PM
We have now reached the "some random place in Montana has a Winter Weather Advisory" portion of the winter preparation stage. 

Quote
MTZ067-271015-
/O.NEW.KBYZ.WW.Y.0033.180827T1200Z-180828T1800Z/
Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains-
412 AM MDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON MDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total wet snow accumulations of 2 to 7
  inches likely over the highest parts of the Beartooth Highway.

* WHERE...The Beartooth Highway in the Beartooth Mountains.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Monday to noon MDT Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slick and snowpacked road
  conditions over the Beartooth Highway, with reduced visibilities
  in snowfall.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on August 26, 2018, 04:01:09 PM
I having second thoughts now bout closing up the pool Labor Day... long range Says maybe another week least after Labor Day ...  ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on August 26, 2018, 07:40:43 PM
I having second thoughts now bout closing up the pool Labor Day... long range Says maybe another week least after Labor Day ...  ::blowtorch::

Amazing how a few cooler nights plus lower sun angle starts to cool the water. Itís no longer bath water but really tolerable which I like better.


Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on August 26, 2018, 07:41:09 PM
https://youtu.be/p6fT7Ge7mWE

Really good early look at upcoming winter
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on August 27, 2018, 04:55:42 PM
While I love the cool, crisp days of autumn, I don't look forward to losing over an hour of daylight in both September and October.  It's the one thing about winter that makes me want to head south.  And its the one thing that keeps me from moving further north.  The only saving grace is living on the western edge of the Eastern Time Zone. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 28, 2018, 07:20:16 AM
The GFS is showing fall arriving around day 10. Iím ready.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on August 28, 2018, 09:06:11 AM
The GFS is showing fall arriving around day 10. Iím ready.
sounded cool. Till said the word gfs...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on August 28, 2018, 09:18:46 AM
The GFS is showing fall arriving around day 10. Iím ready.

"The GFS is showing ______ around day 10."

Uh oh- it must be getting to be that time of year.  ;) ;D
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on August 28, 2018, 10:11:54 AM
The 6z GFS said, "Get yoself outta here with that fall talk!"
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on August 28, 2018, 01:37:51 PM
The 6z GFS said, "Get yoself outta here with that fall talk!"
same for the 12zgfs also....
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: wfrogge on August 28, 2018, 09:55:17 PM
Bring on severe weather season #2.... Or #1 since we really didn't have one this spring
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on August 28, 2018, 11:28:37 PM
Yeah all that big storm hype for summer was just that, not complaining at all. I called for a normal type summer with little to any severe, just went the opposite of Bruce for the win. LOL!!!!!!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on August 29, 2018, 06:45:13 AM
The annual katydid chorus in the woods around the house has grown silent.  Their time to sing has passed, and now it's mainly just the crickets doing their thing. Love sitting on the porch at night listening to them and the occasional owl. Plan on spending some time outdoors around the fire pit this weekend to enjoy summer's last hurrah--unofficially.  The Sun's direct rays don't leave our hemisphere for another few weeks yet. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Icestorm on August 29, 2018, 09:55:32 AM
Those things are still singing loud this morning at my house, I live just outside of Murfreesboro in middle Tn.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on August 29, 2018, 12:24:05 PM
Those things are still singing loud this morning at my house, I live just outside of Murfreesboro in middle Tn.

July and August they're loud over here.  Over the last week, the singing has all but disappeared.  I heard a single lonely one outside the window during the night. A late bloomer. 

Here's some folklore concerning the katydid's singing. . .

Quote
The nights are filled now with the sound of katydids, the first harbingers of fall. Their night-time serenade that reprises their name, katy-DID, katy-DID, tells us Ė just a month into it Ė summer is winding down as we are currently losing about four minutes of daylight each day!

Katydid legend has it that the first frost will be 90 days from the first night the katydid sings. Unfortunately, I wasnít paying close attention, but I think I heard the fanfare of their burgeoning sympathy a week or two ago. Either would put the first frost in the first 15 days of October Ė about average.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on August 29, 2018, 04:56:51 PM
I believe I heard the first katydids in late June. They usually come in earnest in July.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on August 30, 2018, 06:06:08 PM
EPS showing a warm Eastern half of the US for September. Ready to kick the humidity in the balls, but it looks like we will have to wait a while. No early fall on the horizon.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: WXHD on August 30, 2018, 06:32:28 PM
The katydids are still going crazy in my yard. Their all trying to do the sex, loudly.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 01, 2018, 05:52:38 PM
Welcome to September and the beginning of meteorological autumn (whether or not it feels like it). 

Post Merge: September 02, 2018, 08:09:53 AM
GFS shows the high latitudes growing colder by mid-month.  Right on schedule, as the sun sinks southward.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 03, 2018, 10:20:22 AM
Tropical Storm Gordon has a Katrina-like projection to it.

And I figured I may as well stick this in the Fall thread, because it's technically meteorological fall...

(Mid-90s in Boston)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: harlequin on September 03, 2018, 01:05:51 PM
Might not be the right thread, but...

Those of you more familiar with the Appalachians, is there color yet usually in mid-October (October 11-14 specifically)? I'm driving from Boston to Memphis w/ my best friend and we were curious. It'll be scenic either way. We're planning to do the Blue Ridge Parkway.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: NashRugger on September 03, 2018, 04:20:58 PM
Tropical Storm Gordon has a Katrina-like projection to it.

And I figured I may as well stick this in the Fall thread, because it's technically meteorological fall...

(Mid-90s in Boston)
In path only, thank god.
I'm stationed at Keesler AFB (KBIX) here in Biloxi, so I'll have a front row seat.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 03, 2018, 04:28:48 PM
Might not be the right thread, but...

Those of you more familiar with the Appalachians, is there color yet usually in mid-October (October 11-14 specifically)? I'm driving from Boston to Memphis w/ my best friend and we were curious. It'll be scenic either way. We're planning to do the Blue Ridge Parkway.


Late October for elevations below 1000ft.
Mid-October is for 2000ft+, typically. If you're high up in West Va. then it can come as early as early Oct.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 03, 2018, 07:10:17 PM
Might not be the right thread, but...

Those of you more familiar with the Appalachians, is there color yet usually in mid-October (October 11-14 specifically)? I'm driving from Boston to Memphis w/ my best friend and we were curious. It'll be scenic either way. We're planning to do the Blue Ridge Parkway.


Schneitzeit gave a good answer.   Late October/early November is about peak for lower elevations, unless we have an early cold snap.  But those are rare these days.  Dryness can also accelerate color change. 


I personally love the Blue Ridge Pkwy.  Asheville to Boone is beautiful anytime of the year.  By mid-October you are sure to see some color along the higher terrain.  Also, make time to stop at Mt. Mitchell in North Carolina. 


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Mitchell (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Mitchell)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on September 03, 2018, 07:12:31 PM
Since we're talking about Gordon here...
We spent a long weekend on the Georgia coast and on our way home this morning some very impressive cloud formations were rolling through (I took this from the passenger seat).

[attach=1]
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Vols1 on September 03, 2018, 09:46:00 PM
Will we get much rain from Gordon?
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: harlequin on September 04, 2018, 12:14:49 AM

Schneitzeit gave a good answer.   Late October/early November is about peak for lower elevations, unless we have an early cold snap.  But those are rare these days.  Dryness can also accelerate color change. 


I personally love the Blue Ridge Pkwy.  Asheville to Boone is beautiful anytime of the year.  By mid-October you are sure to see some color along the higher terrain.  Also, make time to stop at Mt. Mitchell in North Carolina. 


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Mitchell (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Mitchell)

Gotcha. It sounds like we should see a bit regardless. I appreciate the advice! It will be nice to be in the East for a bit. When I complete the drive, I'll have driven from Memphis to San Francisco, San Francisco to Memphis, and Boston to Memphis in 2018. Kinda wild.

Is the drive most scenic in VA or NC?
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 04, 2018, 07:42:43 AM
Gotcha. It sounds like we should see a bit regardless. I appreciate the advice! It will be nice to be in the East for a bit. When I complete the drive, I'll have driven from Memphis to San Francisco, San Francisco to Memphis, and Boston to Memphis in 2018. Kinda wild.

Is the drive most scenic in VA or NC?

Wow, you are getting to see a big chunk of the country this year.  So cool.

As far as the most scenic parts of the BRP, both states have their unique beauty.  Virginia has a more rolling topography (generally) with the Parkway cutting through the foothills where you'll see scenic farmland and beautiful rural areas.  North Carolina is more rugged and mountainous for the most part.   NC is where you'll find the highest elevations on the Parkway, and some spectacular vistas, especially if you travel through on a clear autumn day.

Here is an elevation map along the length of the Parkway.

(http://www.blueridgeparkwaydaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/ElevationMapFlat.jpg) 

Happy and safe travels!

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: harlequin on September 04, 2018, 06:21:27 PM
Wow, you are getting to see a big chunk of the country this year.  So cool.

As far as the most scenic parts of the BRP, both states have their unique beauty.  Virginia has a more rolling topography (generally) with the Parkway cutting through the foothills where you'll see scenic farmland and beautiful rural areas.  North Carolina is more rugged and mountainous for the most part.   NC is where you'll find the highest elevations on the Parkway, and some spectacular vistas, especially if you travel through on a clear autumn day.

Here is an elevation map along the length of the Parkway.

(http://www.blueridgeparkwaydaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/ElevationMapFlat.jpg) 

Happy and safe travels!

Too big of a chunk! Oh, that's a great graphic. That's pretty helpful with planning. Again, thank you!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: EastTNWX on September 05, 2018, 07:29:27 PM
I know it's been touched on already, but for reference, the Sugar Mountain Oktoberfest is Oct 13-14 this year.  Every year we go (roughly the same date year to year) the ridge tops in the area are just past peak, but the valleys are at peak.  The biggest issue with the southern apps in mid October is the fog/mist/drizzle/whatever, it can hang on all day until the cold fronts sweep through. 

I'm not sure what kind of driving you're in to while in the mountains, but if you are taking the Parkway then headed to Memphis I expect you'll be taking the Tail of the Dragon, which is a very fun road! It's not for sightseeing, but two hands on the wheel and dramamine for the kids kind of driving. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 08, 2018, 05:55:08 PM
I have never understood the Flash Flood Warnings from the NWS. It has rained over 5 inches in most of Dyer County today and still pouring down. There is water everywhere. No warning. ::shrug::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: WXHD on September 09, 2018, 06:13:58 PM
Received 1.72Ē of rain today. Needed it.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 09, 2018, 07:14:48 PM
Enjoying some occasional downpours and lightning now approaching from the west this evening.  Looks like a good night for sleeping.  I love the sound of thunder rumbling with rain on the roof.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 09, 2018, 07:42:49 PM
High of 69 today. I hope Bruceís pool freezes over.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 09, 2018, 09:20:09 PM
High of 69 today. I hope Bruceís pool freezes over.  ::rofl::

Felt fall like today. 50ís tonight= fall isnít far
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 09, 2018, 09:30:45 PM
High of 69 today. I hope Bruceís pool freezes over.  ::rofl::
my pool freezes at 69... we got some serious problems.... :)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on September 09, 2018, 10:32:48 PM
High of 69 today. I hope Bruceís pool freezes over.  ::rofl::

I probably laughed at this harder than I shouldíve.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 10, 2018, 07:42:10 AM
Had a solid 1.05" of needed rain overnight.  Good timing to keep the trees from dropping leaves too early before the autumn show. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Skillsweather on September 10, 2018, 12:01:50 PM
Today is perfect. Cool and cloudy. Boring but way better then summer weather. At least i can go out without sweating now.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Beth on September 10, 2018, 03:08:23 PM
Loving this weather! We got about 1.5 inches of rain.  Enjoy it now as itís going to be toasty by the weekend!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 10, 2018, 04:35:06 PM
Today is perfect. Cool and cloudy. Boring but way better then summer weather. At least i can go out without sweating now.

The day I go without sweating in the South during the summer is the day a meteor strikes Earth
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: tnwthrwtchr on September 10, 2018, 05:07:09 PM
We had a nice amount of rain here and the cooler temps are definitely welcomed.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 10, 2018, 06:08:28 PM
Had occasional downpours today adding up to over a half inch, so we've had about 1.6" for this event.  I think I heard the trees drinking deep this evening. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 13, 2018, 05:19:05 PM
And a glimmer of good news--Isaac looks to actually weaken into a depression, and remain that way as it heads into the Caribbean Sea.  Considering the time of year, and the location of the depression, that's awesome news.  If it degrades further, there may not be anything left to redevelop once the shear weakens.      ::applause::

Quote
Strong shear and mid-level dry air is forecast to persist for the
next day or so, which should cause Isaac to drop back to tropical
depression status on Friday.  However, the shear is forecast to
weaken by the weekend, and moisture values are expected to rise as
the system gets deeper into the Caribbean Sea.  These conditions
would normally allow for some restregthening, but the initial
character of the system is pretty weak, and it is uncertain whether
there will be much left of Isaac to take advantage of the more
conducive conditions.  Model guidance has been inconsistent on the
future of Isaac, which speaks to the lack of predictability of this
situation.  The bulk of the guidance show Isaac staying weak or
degenerating into a tropical wave over the next few days, so the
official forecast follows that consensus.  At this point it is
just best to keep an eye on the long-range forecast on each
advisory to see if there are any changes.

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Skillsweather on September 13, 2018, 08:21:40 PM
Idk where to put this but its something I just kind of learned.
Have you ever watched the radar and seen yellow rain coming over you and you think its moderate because thats the color for moderate? But it ends up being the hardest rain ever. Why? Well the radars are adjusted at times VCP (volume coverage patterns) and basically its different sensitivities of the radar. Just something kind of interesting to me. I kind of figured it was something like that before when we had heavy rain events and only seemed to have green and yellow on radar vs dark reds and stuff. You can see the vcp above the radars color scale thing although not to sure what numbers mean what really but yeah.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 13, 2018, 08:35:40 PM
And a glimmer of good news--Isaac looks to actually weaken into a depression, and remain that way as it heads into the Caribbean Sea.  Considering the time of year, and the location of the depression, that's awesome news.  If it degrades further, there may not be anything left to redevelop once the shear weakens.      ::applause::

Not having looked into the pattern over the Caribbean, there must evidently be shear or unfavorable conditions in that area. That area is ordinarily a gas tank for tropical systems this time of year where storms intensify quickly once they pass west of the Leewards/Windwards. Not with this one, it appears.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on September 13, 2018, 09:32:02 PM
Looks like fall isn't coming in until the end of the month...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 14, 2018, 05:20:25 AM
Not having looked into the pattern over the Caribbean, there must evidently be shear or unfavorable conditions in that area. That area is ordinarily a gas tank for tropical systems this time of year where storms intensify quickly once they pass west of the Leewards/Windwards. Not with this one, it appears.

Isaac now downgraded to a depression this morning. Pretty amazing considering where it's at.

Isaac could've easily become a destructive monster.  Perfect track over tepid waters.  Shear and dry air are the culprit for it's lack of luster.  Or perhaps it's just Someone upstairs cutting us a break.  Either way, I'm grateful.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mempho on September 14, 2018, 05:55:56 AM
Looks like fall isn't coming in until the end of the month...
I was gonna ask-- when does "fall" actually start this year?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 14, 2018, 09:58:49 AM
Looks like fall isn't coming in until the end of the month...
yeah.  Fall going be delayed...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on September 14, 2018, 10:21:19 AM
You all act like fall is supposed to start in September. Please. This is 21st century Tennessee. Summer will hang on until early November, and then winter will start.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 14, 2018, 10:58:52 AM
You all act like fall is supposed to start in September. Please. This is 21st century Tennessee. Summer will hang on until early November, and then winter will start.

Just two years ago, we were hitting consistent 90s in late October. After that nonexistent autumn, I am pleasantly surprised to see 70s in September. We had really nice temperatures last fall- even some record lows in October. That was eclipsed by a final shot of 70 degree temperatures during the first week of November. Ironically, that wacky week of 70 degree temperatures is a harbinger of winter down here.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on September 14, 2018, 12:38:53 PM
Just two years ago, we were hitting consistent 90s in late October. After that nonexistent autumn, I am pleasantly surprised to see 70s in September. We had really nice temperatures last fall- even some record lows in October. That was eclipsed by a final shot of 70 degree temperatures during the first week of November. Ironically, that wacky week of 70 degree temperatures is a harbinger of winter down here.
Iíd have to go back and check, but Iím pretty sure we recorded a 90 degree day in November in 2016. That would have to be the latest such occurrence.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 14, 2018, 12:49:12 PM
You all act like fall is supposed to start in September. Please. This is 21st century Tennessee. Summer will hang on until early November, and then winter will start.
almost agreed 100 percent but think be December when any true winter stuff comes rolling in...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 14, 2018, 12:52:00 PM
almost agreed 100 percent but think be December when any true winter stuff comes rolling in...
Wait we are taking about ďwinter stuffĒ?  I thought this was about the amazing period beforehand where we have comfortable temps and a chill in the air for a month or 2 beforehand.

Just looking at the GEFS temps over the next 16 days- after this weekend temps are seasonable and drop to the low 80ís with lows beginning to fall into the 50ís. Thatís about normal to me.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 14, 2018, 01:10:46 PM
Iíd have to go back and check, but Iím pretty sure we recorded a 90 degree day in November in 2016. That would have to be the latest such occurrence.

I'm thinking your right.  At the least, that was a record warm November, and I know we had 80+ up to Thanksgiving.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on September 14, 2018, 01:14:11 PM
The older I get, the less I care about epic winter storms and sustained cold during the traditional months. But it just doesn't seem right to have shirt-sleeve weather at Thanksgiving and Christmas, which has been increasingly common in the past decade or so.
Title: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 14, 2018, 01:36:51 PM
You all act like fall is supposed to start in September. Please. This is 21st century Tennessee. Summer will hang on until early November, and then winter will start.

You mean the interim transition period between fall and spring will start?

What is this ďwinterĒ you speak of? :)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 14, 2018, 01:45:14 PM
Wait we are taking about ďwinter stuffĒ?  I thought this was about the amazing period beforehand where we have comfortable temps and a chill in the air for a month or 2 beforehand.

Just looking at the GEFS temps over the next 16 days- after this weekend temps are seasonable and drop to the low 80ís with lows beginning to fall into the 50ís. Thatís about normal to me.
long range. In saying think we going bebabive norm up to December .... before we see some below normal temps for averages... gulf Alaska low seems trying park itself ... which will cause trough set in West for a while.  Just saying
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 14, 2018, 01:51:47 PM
long range. In saying think we going bebabive norm up to December .... before we see some below normal temps for averages... gulf Alaska low seems trying park itself ... which will cause trough set in West for a while.  Just saying

Translation into English please
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on September 14, 2018, 02:29:35 PM
Translation into English please

Iím dying   ;D
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JHart on September 14, 2018, 03:19:22 PM
long range. In saying think we going bebabive norm up to December .... before we see some below normal temps for averages... gulf Alaska low seems trying park itself ... which will cause trough set in West for a while.  Just saying
Cophefe!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 14, 2018, 04:25:52 PM
Cophefe!

Bruce for president.   ::unclesam:: ::unclesam:: ::unclesam:: ::unclesam:: ::unclesam:: ::unclesam::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 14, 2018, 04:30:20 PM
Bebabive Bruce Forever!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 14, 2018, 05:08:27 PM
somethin tell me... right leg been actin up yonder... sense a real twist in the pattern... trough comin in... where fall at?.  >:D

Post Merge: September 14, 2018, 05:09:52 PM
Bruce for president.   ::unclesam:: ::unclesam:: ::unclesam:: ::unclesam:: ::unclesam:: ::unclesam::

Make Tennessee Winters the 1970s Again!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on September 14, 2018, 05:12:41 PM
somethin tell me... right leg been actin up yonder... sense a real twist in the pattern... trough comin in... where fall at?.  >:D

This ain't even right.   ::rofl::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 14, 2018, 05:20:30 PM
somethin tell me... right leg been actin up yonder... sense a real twist in the pattern... trough comin in... where fall at?.  >:D

Post Merge: September 14, 2018, 05:09:52 PM

OMG---Bruce is really...

(http://orig00.deviantart.net/3ba9/f/2008/184/2/d/boomhauer_by_the_chosen_pessimist.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: justinmundie on September 14, 2018, 06:00:33 PM
If for no other reason, Bruce is why I still check in here. This is gold.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 14, 2018, 06:51:10 PM
See yíall having little fun.... sorry. I posted on my stupid I phone.... hate posting off this thing.lol... trying say. I see above normal temps up to December.. less changes happen faster in the pacific ...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 15, 2018, 08:28:29 AM
"Fall," as in leaves falling, has arrived here.  Hickory trees are already dropping them in abundance, and if we have 30+mph winds, there may be some nearly bare trees come Monday. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mempho on September 15, 2018, 08:55:06 AM
"Fall," as in leaves falling, has arrived here.  Hickory trees are already dropping them in abundance, and if we have 30+mph winds, there may be some nearly bare trees come Monday.
Highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s all week.  Humid.  Doesn't seem like fall to me.  I checked the normals and we are seemingly in a prolonged +5 to +10 stretch on the highs and even moreso on the lows and dewpoints. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 15, 2018, 09:14:51 AM
Highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s all week.  Humid.  Doesn't seem like fall to me.  I checked the normals and we are seemingly in a prolonged +5 to +10 stretch on the highs and even moreso on the lows and dewpoints. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Looks like fall.  But, no, doesn't feel like it at all. 

Growing up, September was normally the transition month to cooler.  After all, the sun is at the same position and strength as late March.  I used to keep weather records as a kid in the 80's, and there were some years we had highs in the 50's by late September on a rainy day(in eastern KY).  Doesn't happen anymore. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Skillsweather on September 15, 2018, 02:29:03 PM
Looks like fall.  But, no, doesn't feel like it at all. 

Growing up, September was normally the transition month to cooler.  After all, the sun is at the same position and strength as late March.  I used to keep weather records as a kid in the 80's, and there were some years we had highs in the 50's by late September on a rainy day(in eastern KY).  Doesn't happen anymore.
Id have to disagree a bit. I Mean here further south we had highs in the 60's like a week ago or so. But i do agree usually september goes from super hot to nice weather and october goes from nice to cold by halloween time. And its like lately its a month behind or at least feels that way. But maybe could be we just notice things differently as we get older. The things and events from childhood and stuff stick with us and shape our views on things as we turn to adults. Thats just the way I see it anyways. Like with snow 1inch of snow was amazing best thing ever as a child but as we get older we see it as nothing if we still want a wonderland we need much much more or we grow to hate snow because of work ect.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 15, 2018, 03:32:24 PM
Id have to disagree a bit. I Mean here further south we had highs in the 60's like a week ago or so. But i do agree usually september goes from super hot to nice weather and october goes from nice to cold by halloween time. And its like lately its a month behind or at least feels that way. But maybe could be we just notice things differently as we get older. The things and events from childhood and stuff stick with us and shape our views on things as we turn to adults. Thats just the way I see it anyways. Like with snow 1inch of snow was amazing best thing ever as a child but as we get older we see it as nothing if we still want a wonderland we need much much more or we grow to hate snow because of work ect.

I understand your point.  But overall the months of September and October are far warmer than just 20 years ago.  One cool day then back to 85F-90F+ temps is not normal for even this far south in the autumn months.  But then again, I guess this is the new normal. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 15, 2018, 06:54:05 PM
While we torch in 90 degree weather next week, Albertans in Edmonton have been getting snow.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 15, 2018, 08:03:17 PM
While we torch in 90 degree weather next week, Albertans in Edmonton have been getting snow.

At least the ďsource regionsĒ are getting colder.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 16, 2018, 05:08:49 PM
Florence blessed us with the first fall like day this month.  High of 71 with rain falling most of the day.  So far we've had .70."

Won't last long.  Once Florence departs, back to the 80's.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mempho on September 16, 2018, 07:15:38 PM
It is September 16th and it still feels volcanic outside.  That is all.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Nashville_Wx on September 16, 2018, 09:09:25 PM
Yeah just got back from Tahoe and it was in the 30's during the early morning hours. Came back to this hot mess...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on September 16, 2018, 09:24:23 PM
It is September 16th and it still feels volcanic outside.  That is all.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

It sure felt nice on this side of the state today.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on September 16, 2018, 09:36:29 PM
It is September 16th and it still feels volcanic outside.  That is all.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

It's almost over. The finish line is in sight.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 16, 2018, 09:52:32 PM
70 degrees all day. Suck it Memphis
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 16, 2018, 10:47:35 PM
It's almost over. The finish line is in sight.
yeah ... but the finish line keeps getting pushed back ... not fair

Post Merge: September 17, 2018, 05:40:05 AM
Yeah just got back from Tahoe and it was in the 30's during the early morning hours. Came back to this hot mess...
welcome back to Tennessee...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 17, 2018, 09:14:52 AM
Should be another relatively mild to cool day from Nashville east thanks to Florence's remnants circulating overhead.  Light mist falling again this morning.

Sorry, west end.  Another day cookin'   :-\
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 17, 2018, 09:26:52 AM
Should be another relatively mild to cool day from Nashville east thanks to Florence's remnants circulating overhead.  Light mist falling again this morning.

Sorry, west end.  Another day cookin'   :-\
We will get even this winter.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 17, 2018, 09:47:10 AM
Should be another relatively mild to cool day from Nashville east thanks to Florence's remnants circulating overhead.  Light mist falling again this morning.

Sorry, west end.  Another day cookin'   :-\
ok... cause when flo gets the **** out of dodge ... yíall will get some this heat .... hang on

Post Merge: September 17, 2018, 09:53:39 AM
Least the euro long range now is advertising a big lakes cutter...thatís a start to perhaps more active weather and cooler air... think it will be a stair step down pattern from there ... to more fall like weather
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on September 17, 2018, 10:39:38 AM
Least the euro long range now is advertising a big lakes cutter...thatís a start to perhaps more active weather and cooler air... think it will be a stair step down pattern from there ... to more fall like weather
Bring it!  Summer has been nice but I like getting all 4 seasons when we can; a nice, colorful fall will be a great break before winter.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mempho on September 17, 2018, 01:41:47 PM
yeah ... but the finish line keeps getting pushed back ... not fair

Post Merge: September 17, 2018, 05:40:05 AM
welcome back to Tennessee...
That's the thing.  I'm just not prepared to endure warmth like this in September.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 17, 2018, 01:47:41 PM
Last night Euro had a fairly massive blizzard in 10 days in North Dakota and Montana followed by a Canadian air mass coming south

If you want to see a really warm September you only have to look back 18 years ago. We were still having upper 90s and 100s to the entire month. The following December was one of the coldest on record
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on September 17, 2018, 01:58:57 PM
Last night Euro had a fairly massive blizzard in 10 days in North Dakota and Montana followed by a Canadian air mass coming south

If you want to see a really warm September you only have to look back 18 years ago. We were still having upper 90s and 100s to the entire month. The following December was one of the coldest on record
If I remember correctly East TN had massive wildfires that fall as well.  I was a first semester grad student at UT and there were days that my apartment in West Knoxville and campus were both covered with smoke.  Oddly the ridiculous heat doesn't stand out in my mind, but the smoke was something I've never forgotten.  Since the terrible fires a couple of years ago my wife and I both have good quality dust masks as part of our vehicle emergency kits as there were times the air quality got so bad even in the valley that it was difficult to breathe.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 17, 2018, 02:02:51 PM
Last night Euro had a fairly massive blizzard in 10 days in North Dakota and Montana followed by a Canadian air mass coming south

If you want to see a really warm September you only have to look back 18 years ago. We were still having upper 90s and 100s to the entire month. The following December was one of the coldest on record
yeah. The 12z euro going show big blizzard also... Montana North Dakota into Canada ... seasons first blizzard showing up.. hopefully we start see pattern change ....
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: joemomma on September 17, 2018, 02:28:14 PM
What's the long range showing for the first weekend in October for middle/east TN?
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 17, 2018, 02:33:10 PM
What's the long range showing for the first weekend in October for middle/east TN?
wouldnt want speculate that far out just yet....
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 17, 2018, 02:54:52 PM
Bring it!  Summer has been nice but I like getting all 4 seasons when we can; a nice, colorful fall will be a great break before winter.

With recent rains, we should have decent fall color I would imagine, if it will ever cool down.  At least it's wetter this fall than the last 2 years.  Color fades quickly in dry autumns. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 17, 2018, 07:36:41 PM
GFS shows the cold air mass in place to our north. By the end of the month, most places along the U.S.-Canadian border will have witnessed the first freeze.

At least the cold air is present. We just aren't getting any of it right now. I have hope we will return to near-normal temperatures in a couple of weeks.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 17, 2018, 07:46:30 PM
https://youtu.be/O48qA2f8qJs

 ;D

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Charles L. on September 17, 2018, 07:55:10 PM
wouldnt want speculate that far out just yet....

Huh? You always speculate that far out...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 17, 2018, 08:37:41 PM
https://youtu.be/O48qA2f8qJs

 ;D

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Not a lot to report that week, I guess
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 18, 2018, 03:02:26 PM
GEFS and euro have the 90s going away Friday but the real deal looks like it starts late next week= low 70ís for highs
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 18, 2018, 03:49:09 PM
GEFS and euro have the 90s going away Friday but the real deal looks like it starts late next week= low 70ís for highs

Bring. It.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 18, 2018, 03:51:30 PM
GEFS and euro have the 90s going away Friday but the real deal looks like it starts late next week= low 70ís for highs

 ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 18, 2018, 03:55:45 PM
We just had our yard aerated and seeded. This hot dry weather is not ideal. Hoping for some cooler, wetter days in the next couple of weeks.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on September 18, 2018, 04:41:20 PM
That's the thing.  I'm just not prepared to endure warmth like this in September.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

It's not unusual.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 18, 2018, 06:46:18 PM
We may flirt with warmest September on record ... though should cool down some next week
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on September 18, 2018, 06:59:19 PM
We may flirt with warmest September on record ... though should cool down some next week

Obviously things are different between the middle of the state and the plateau. We're actually running below normal here.

However, we are making a run at the wettest September on record up here. We're at 7.25" and the wettest on record is 8.89" (but records only date back to 1960 here, so...)
Title: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 18, 2018, 07:00:09 PM
We may flirt with warmest September on record ... though should cool down some next week

Whatís the average temps at Memphis and Jackson so far? The days Gordon came through stayed in the 70ís for 4 days straight with 2 never getting out of  the low 70ís (and one with 3-4 inches of rain). That put a huge dent in any possible records over here anyways for this month.

Edit looks more record like but only in the mid Atlantic and interior Northeast. If next week goes below normal it will end up warm here but I doubt itís warmest on record.

Low temp anomaly
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180919/00777ebcc1e7a3d9425c84239d88de2a.png)

High temp anomaly
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180919/b7d486867f27e4111653dc2d50ef7148.png)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 19, 2018, 07:12:03 AM
OHX:

Quote
Next week`s cold front will signal a
significant air mass change with more autumn like readings once we
get beyond the current 7-day forecast.

Weíve been talking about it already. But, it begins to seem more real when the NWS makes first mention.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 19, 2018, 07:22:37 AM
It's a good morning. . .

(http://i67.tinypic.com/33b3k8l.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 19, 2018, 09:00:18 AM
There have been some spectacular sunrises and sunsets lately. I think some of the outer scattered clouds from the remnants of Florence were creating a nice visual effect over this way in recent days.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 19, 2018, 04:38:24 PM
Change is a comin'

(http://i68.tinypic.com/1zb9g6g.gif)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: StormNine on September 19, 2018, 05:48:35 PM
September 1925 is going to be a hard September to beat as far as record warm wise goes. 

In Nashville:
- The minimum low for the month was 61F
- The average high was 91.6 and the average low was 71.1
- 9/28 was the only day to feature a high below 80F
- It was at least 94F on 10 out of the first 11 days of the month 
- On 9/3/1925 to 9/9/1925 was a streak of 100-104F High Temperatures. 

September 1925 is pretty much the September version of December 2015 or February 2017. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: EastTNWX on September 19, 2018, 08:01:58 PM
It's starting to look much cooler in about one week's time.  Looks like it will be a pretty big step down and likely the end of summer weather for a while. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on September 19, 2018, 08:28:11 PM
It's starting to look much cooler in about one week's time.  Looks like it will be a pretty big step down and likely the end of summer weather for a while.

18z GFS shows highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s here next Saturday-Monday. That's way too extreme, but even if it's 10 degrees warmer than that, it'll be a major cool-down.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 19, 2018, 10:15:11 PM
It's coming folks!

(https://scontent.fbna1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/42168922_2259488940792708_1374757707906547712_o.jpg?_nc_cat=1&oh=af1f0d902d710e54ff5db8fc55c9e527&oe=5C27EC6B)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mempho on September 20, 2018, 04:23:21 AM
It's not unusual.
Main thing is probably the morning lows.   I like to see at least some mid-60s.   These sticky, 70+ low temps are difficult to endure. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 20, 2018, 05:26:52 AM
Somebody's gonna get a lot of rain as summer and fall fight for more territory in the lower 48.  At first, summer will not relinquish the east and south, and the battle front stalls for a time in the middle of the country before fall's forces finally overwhelm summer's dwindling strength.  Go Fall!!



(http://i64.tinypic.com/53s576.gif)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 20, 2018, 09:41:56 AM
Latest GFS run shows snow showers extending as far south as western Nebraska by the month's end.

Memphis and Nashville may end up cooler than Knoxville once this airmass moves in. It will be quite the temperature swing.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on September 20, 2018, 11:03:12 AM
Main thing is probably the morning lows.   I like to see at least some mid-60s.   These sticky, 70+ low temps are difficult to endure. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

We just got stuck under a ridge at the very end of summer. Hopefully, it was a last gasp. Long range showing some troughs slowly hammering away at it leaving some fall like weather at the end of the run.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 20, 2018, 11:51:58 AM
Even though it's "hot as blue blazes" (as my mom always said), there's something subtly different about the "look" of things outside. I think it's a lower sun angle, and something about the blueness of the sky and general clarity in the air... it's more of a fall look than summer now.

Just have to wait a bit longer for temperatures to follow suit.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Clay on September 20, 2018, 11:57:27 AM
I bet after tomorrow we don't see 90F until May of next year. Hold me to it!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 20, 2018, 12:05:02 PM
I bet after tomorrow we don't see 90F until May of next year. Hold me to it!

Hope you're right, although I've seen 90 degrees sneak in during the first week or so of October... hope that doesn't happen, but this year, it wouldn't surprise me.  Models might be showing a cooler regime in force for a while, so I don't know.

The hot days of summer are numbered for sure at any rate.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 20, 2018, 01:13:12 PM
Even though it's "hot as blue blazes" (as my mom always said), there's something subtly different about the "look" of things outside. I think it's a lower sun angle, and something about the blueness of the sky and general clarity in the air... it's more of a fall look than summer now.

Just have to wait a bit longer for temperatures to follow suit.

About this time every year I notice it.  I think it is the lower sun angle more than anything.  Shadows are longer, so the sun is significantly weaker in brightness than May-July.  Doesn't feel like March, but the sun angle is the same.   
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on September 20, 2018, 01:15:57 PM
About this time every year I notice it.  I think it is the lower sun angle more than anything.  Shadows are longer, so the sun is significantly weaker in brightness than May-July.  Doesn't feel like March, but the sun angle is the same.

I notice it at just about sunset. It just has a different feeling to it.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 20, 2018, 01:48:33 PM
I notice the sun angle in my office at home. It has an east-facing window. Part of the year, I have to keep the blinds closed until the sun gets high enough where it's not shining right in my face. During the core weeks either side of the summer solstice, I can open the blinds because the sun is just left of my window (further north), so it doesn't come right in on me. But, as the sun in the sky is moving further and further right (further south of due east) with time each morning, it starts to come in to that part of the room through the window. I hadn't really noticed or thought about the pattern of that happening until this year.

Post Merge: September 20, 2018, 01:59:52 PM
Another interesting thing about the physics of the tilt of the earth- coming up on the autumn equinox, we are losing daylight at a faster rate right now than at any other time of the year. We'll continue to lose daylight, of course, until the first day of winter. But, the rate of daily loss begins to slow and get slower and slower. But the time of the solstice, there's very little change from one day to the next. The reverse is true on the flip side... on the first day of spring, we'll be gaining daylight the fastest of any time of the year.

Envision the earth hitting the pivot point and then start slooowly tilting the other direction. Halfway through, it's tilting the fastest from one day to the next, and then the tilt starts slowing down to the other point.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 20, 2018, 02:09:14 PM
This is also about the time the hummingbirds begin their long journey to parts of Mexico and Central America.  They have a feeding frenzy at the feeders, then suddenly they all disappear almost in one day--all based on the sun and length of day.  I just learned that last year at a conference about migration in the Smokies.  I guess they sense the same "change" in the sun we do.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JHart on September 20, 2018, 02:28:14 PM
Another interesting thing about the physics of the tilt of the earth- coming up on the autumn equinox, we are losing daylight at a faster rate right now than at any other time of the year. We'll continue to lose daylight, of course, until the first day of winter. But, the rate of daily loss begins to slow and get slower and slower. But the time of the solstice, there's very little change from one day to the next. The reverse is true on the flip side... on the first day of spring, we'll be gaining daylight the fastest of any time of the year

Inflection points Ö gotta love'em.  I use this example in calculus every semester when we are discussing derivatives.


Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 20, 2018, 02:39:43 PM
It would be so cool to have one of these. 

https://youtu.be/rcMkTapPedU (https://youtu.be/rcMkTapPedU)

And here is an interesting video about the sun's movement in our sky during one year.  Sorry, I really geek out over this stuff. 

https://youtu.be/82p-DYgGFjI (https://youtu.be/82p-DYgGFjI)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 20, 2018, 04:54:59 PM
BNA is coming in at a current temperature of 97. I don't recall us hitting the century mark at any point this summer. Not sure what the highest temperature has been so far this year. But, this is certainly close to the hottest day of the year. Wow.

Post Merge: September 20, 2018, 05:11:46 PM
And here is an interesting video about the sun's movement in our sky during one year.  Sorry, I really geek out over this stuff. 

https://youtu.be/82p-DYgGFjI (https://youtu.be/82p-DYgGFjI)

Interesting indeed. Lot to ponder there.

On a side note, I'm always somewhere between amused and bewildered when I stumble upon debates with flat-earthers (the comments section of that video).  ::doh::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 20, 2018, 06:20:18 PM

Post Merge: September 20, 2018, 05:11:46 PM
Interesting indeed. Lot to ponder there.

On a side note, I'm always somewhere between amused and bewildered when I stumble upon debates with flat-earthers (the comments section of that video).  ::doh::

When I first stumbled on flat earthers about a year ago on Youtube, I thought it was a joke--really.  Oh my surprise when I found out these people were serious. 
The fact that the human psyche can "flat" out deny the evidence of science and completely believe something that has been, beyond a doubt, proven wrong is downright scary.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Skillsweather on September 20, 2018, 07:01:43 PM
Our low tonight is going to be our high later next week lol. Today and yesterday was the last hot days most likely. We could still see mid 80s after nexts weeks cool down but i doubt we see 90 again until march at earliest. 70s are going to feel so so good next weekend.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on September 20, 2018, 07:12:16 PM
NOAA says dry and warmer than average for Oct-Dec. I will absolutely take the dryness.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: EastTNWX on September 20, 2018, 07:42:22 PM
BNA is coming in at a current temperature of 97. I don't recall us hitting the century mark at any point this summer. Not sure what the highest temperature has been so far this year. But, this is certainly close to the hottest day of the year. Wow.

It got up to 91 in Knox today.  It's been about as hot the September as any point during the summer. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Heath22 on September 20, 2018, 08:10:34 PM
When I first stumbled on flat earthers about a year ago on Youtube, I thought it was a joke--really.  Oh my surprise when I found out these people were serious. 
The fact that the human psyche can "flat" out deny the evidence of science and completely believe something that has been, beyond a doubt, proven wrong is downright scary.

Actually there is more science for a flat earth than against. Most science for the spinning ball is psuedo science.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Matt on September 20, 2018, 08:14:49 PM
Actually there is more science for a flat earth than against. Most science for the spinning ball is psuedo science.

Oh my.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 20, 2018, 09:23:26 PM
Our low tonight is going to be our high later next week lol. Today and yesterday was the last hot days most likely. We could still see mid 80s after nexts weeks cool down but i doubt we see 90 again until march at earliest. 70s are going to feel so so good next weekend.

90 in March might break a record. I think the earliest 90 degree day for Nashville was April 9, 2011.

Post Merge: September 20, 2018, 09:24:18 PM
Actually there is more science for a flat earth than against. Most science for the spinning ball is psuedo science.

This is a joke, right?
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 20, 2018, 09:33:25 PM
Actually there is more science for a flat earth than against. Most science for the spinning ball is psuedo science.

Wow...

I halfway suspect that a good portion of "flat-earthers" don't really believe it... they're just having fun/trolling, but whatever.

I'm going to assume you're just pulling our leg.  ;)

(https://memeexplorer.com/cache/550.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 20, 2018, 09:44:50 PM
Atypical of those smarter-than-thou Vandy fans   ;)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 21, 2018, 05:29:44 AM
NOAA says dry and warmer than average for Oct-Dec. I will absolutely take the dryness.

(Attachment Link)

Not that I put much faith in NOAA's long range, but that doesn't look dry.  Above normal wetness is just to our south and east, and we're in equal chances of going either way.  The storm track looks to be from the Gulf to New England. But with the coming wet period, a drier and pleasant October would be welcome before the winter months.


 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 21, 2018, 05:38:46 AM
Not that I put much faith in NOAA's long range, but that doesn't look dry.  Above normal wetness is just to our south and east, and we're in equal chances of going either way.  The storm track looks to be from the Gulf to New England. But with the coming wet period, a drier and pleasant October would be welcome before the winter months.
noaa does pretty good job actually... used think same ... storm track going be bit further north for what Iím been reading... but who really knows
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 21, 2018, 06:18:47 AM
noaa does pretty good job actually... used think same ... storm track going be bit further north for what Iím been reading... but who really knows

In a dynamic and chaotic system like the Earth's weather, I don't put much faith in anything past 30 days, and past 10 is pushing it.  Last year is a good example.  We had our cold spell in January, then it warmed.  Everything pointed to cold returning in February--models even showed it.  But the MJO, among other things, threw us a monkey wrench and we ended up with warm temps until Spring--then it finally got cold.  Models have vastly improved over the years, but still have major problems in LR.  I don't mind that, though.  Keeps us humble. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on September 21, 2018, 08:16:27 AM
Looks like previous long range Euro was a little quick with the pattern change. Pushes the "cooler" air mass back into the long range. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 21, 2018, 08:56:02 AM
 :( :(
Looks like previous long range Euro was a little quick with the pattern change. Pushes the "cooler" air mass back into the long range.
:(
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 21, 2018, 09:17:46 AM
BNA is coming in at a current temperature of 97. I don't recall us hitting the century mark at any point this summer. Not sure what the highest temperature has been so far this year. But, this is certainly close to the hottest day of the year. Wow.

Post Merge: September 20, 2018, 05:11:46 PM
Interesting indeed. Lot to ponder there.


Stumbled on this yesterday--first time I've seen this solar system model.  Amazing that we don't fly off into space, or that we have such a stable orbit and tilt to keep our climate and seasons reasonably established.  Earth is certainly a rare gem--so far as we know.  Someone has to be looking out for us. . .

https://youtu.be/0jHsq36_NTU (https://youtu.be/0jHsq36_NTU) 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 21, 2018, 10:57:34 AM
(http://i63.tinypic.com/wlico.png)
September avg temps through the 19th.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Skillsweather on September 21, 2018, 12:03:59 PM
Stumbled on this yesterday--first time I've seen this solar system model.  Amazing that we don't fly off into space, or that we have such a stable orbit and tilt to keep our climate and seasons reasonably established.  Earth is certainly a rare gem--so far as we know.  Someone has to be looking out for us. . .

https://youtu.be/0jHsq36_NTU (https://youtu.be/0jHsq36_NTU)
Also with all the other stars ect out there with far greater mass. What if we got to close and it started to draw us in? Maybe takes a few of our outer planets but we stay with our sun but the pull on it pulls us further from our normal orbit with the sun causing an ice age. theres like so much stuff that could go wrong and yet hasnt (that we know of) its kind of crazy to even think about.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: tnwthrwtchr on September 21, 2018, 02:14:12 PM
Hopefully today is the last day in the 90s.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 21, 2018, 02:14:49 PM
Saturday looks to be the last of the "hot" days for some time (hopefully till next summer).  High of 78 on Sunday.  Gonna love that. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on September 21, 2018, 08:23:34 PM
Get your boats ready along I-40 in west and middle TN(image subject to change):
(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1537579180)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Skillsweather on September 21, 2018, 08:51:09 PM
Yep. They kept pushing the heavier stuff closer and closer as we got closer. This morning i got a nice little shower and I got one again an hour ago. And so it begins the washing away of summer into fall (which usually is dryer then summer overall lol)

Edit. Spots slightly south of me in Wilson county (according to radar) has got 2-2.5 today. And theres some spots near Lawrenceburg thats got like 5+ today.. Crazy since we havn't even started with the real rains thats coming
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on September 22, 2018, 08:44:17 AM
While it is a little cooler out, it was awfully humid late yesterday afternoon. I soaked my shirt while mowing the grass. It was awful. Need a good front to wring out the air.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 22, 2018, 10:09:09 AM
Euro weeklies go below normal after day 10 and never look back through day 46
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: justinmundie on September 22, 2018, 12:53:51 PM
Can someone tell me what daytime temps in the 60s feel like? Asking for a friend
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 22, 2018, 01:10:28 PM
Can someone tell me what daytime temps in the 60s feel like? Asking for a friend

68 here with rain and drizzle. Feels miles apart from your 91 at the moment although thatís where we were yesterday at this time
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on September 22, 2018, 02:40:18 PM
Can someone tell me what daytime temps in the 60s feel like? Asking for a friend

Winter in Alabama?
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 22, 2018, 03:56:21 PM
Flash Flood Warnings have already begun in parts of southeast KY where heavy, training thunderstorms are dropping too much rain too quickly.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/2nk8aw7.gif)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 22, 2018, 08:01:48 PM
A little over 2 inches here so far. Looks to be a very wet week.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 22, 2018, 08:48:43 PM
Welcome to Fall y'all.  The Sun's direct rays are crossing the equator at 9:54 EDT tonight, and won't return until March of next year. 


Quote
Equinoxes & Solstices 2018
September Equinox
Sep 22  9:54 pm
December Solstice
Dec 21  5:23 pm
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Skillsweather on September 22, 2018, 11:21:57 PM
Has something changed? My forecast has highs staying in the low 80s all week and next weekend. What happen to the 70s. 80 is average for right now.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 22, 2018, 11:29:07 PM
I noticed that too, Skillsweather.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: MSR041933 on September 23, 2018, 04:21:27 AM
Yep. They kept pushing the heavier stuff closer and closer as we got closer. This morning i got a nice little shower and I got one again an hour ago. And so it begins the washing away of summer into fall (which usually is dryer then summer overall lol)

Edit. Spots slightly south of me in Wilson county (according to radar) has got 2-2.5 today. And theres some spots near Lawrenceburg thats got like 5+ today.. Crazy since we havn't even started with the real rains thats coming

This is correct. Picked up 6.25 inches Friday into Saturday..and already received another 2.5 overnight tonight!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 23, 2018, 06:51:59 AM
Has something changed? My forecast has highs staying in the low 80s all week and next weekend. What happen to the 70s. 80 is average for right now.

The first trough (and the cool air) doesn't really make a deep push into our area.  The second trough by late week will deliver a better brand of air, but still not fall-like.  In any event, I'll enjoy 58 for a low by next Friday (if it doesn't change by then).

Quote
The frontal passage will occur late Wednesday but expect the front will slow down as the trough races quickly off to the northeast late Wednesday.

Quick return flow will push this boundary back to the north on
Thursday. A weak trough is forecast to move along this boundary with
elevated chances of showers and storms continuing into Thursday. A
more robust rough will pass to the north late Thursday into early
Friday with the front finally passing to the south. With this, drier
and slightly cooler conditions are forecast Friday night into
Saturday.

Temperatures through the long-term forecast period will remain near
to slightly above average for late September.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: WXRocker on September 23, 2018, 07:58:29 AM
Has something changed? My forecast has highs staying in the low 80s all week and next weekend. What happen to the 70s. 80 is average for right now.
Meanwhile, in Hopkinsville....Today: 70/65, Monday:76/68, Tuesday:80/66, Wednesday: 74/56, Thursday:75/55   ::drowning::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 23, 2018, 12:57:47 PM
Yesterday the forecast high for today was 78.  Already up to 84 with summertime humidity to boot.  Not a day to open the windows, as I had hoped. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: spanarkle08 on September 24, 2018, 08:59:59 AM
Can not believe Carroll Co is not under a flash flood warning...have pick up 1.7 inches as of 6 this morning to go with the 1.8 from Sat. and its been poring for the past hour and a half
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on September 24, 2018, 11:18:17 AM
Long range models: Fall fought the Southeast Ridge...and the, Southeast Ridge won.

The wait for fall temps continues....
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Skillsweather on September 24, 2018, 12:09:01 PM
Long range models: Fall fought the Southeast Ridge...and the, Southeast Ridge won.

The wait for fall temps continues....
(unlike x's 10 for me) well crap.. April fools? please? Next week is October.. Please lets lose the 80s.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 24, 2018, 01:44:23 PM
If summer is anything like last winter, it will be hot until mid November, then turn cold.  Fall gets skipped over like spring. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on September 24, 2018, 01:47:06 PM
I have confidence in predicting that fall weather will arrive before UT wins an SEC football game.  We'll most likely also see winter, spring, summer, and at least part of another fall....

Today certainly feels like a dreary fall day in Knoxville.  Even though it isn't that cool with the cloud cover and rain, and the forecast for the next several days, we may go all week without seeing the sun.  I'm glad for the break from the heat, but would rather have those beautiful fall days where it's cool and also sunny.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 24, 2018, 02:39:19 PM
Long range models: Fall fought the Southeast Ridge...and the, Southeast Ridge won.

The wait for fall temps continues....
yeah 12z euro builds the ridge right back in long range .... looks be steady dose mid 80s for some highs
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on September 24, 2018, 04:04:39 PM
Wettest day of the year so far for me. 4.15Ē in the gauge and itís still coming down.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Jilly on September 24, 2018, 05:00:17 PM
Did not expect a tornado warning today!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Skillsweather on September 24, 2018, 06:11:55 PM
Well the models show nothing for tonight and mainly clear tomorrow so we get a little break before the front comes through. Although the news says mores coming tonight and tomorrow lol but even their model showed nothing.
Also, they was saying this has tropical rains and that theres lots of spin in the air and thats why we had that tornado form and to keep and eye out for more later since theres so much spin in the air. Like im so lost i thought this was just a stalled front. And the tornado was just a random one not because we had lots of spin in the air or nothing.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on September 24, 2018, 06:56:07 PM
Please tell me it isnít going to rain Saturday evening. Iíll be at Ascend Ampitheater for Nine Inch Nails and Iíd prefer a dry evening since Iím sitting on the lawn.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on September 24, 2018, 07:26:37 PM
Looks like it could easily rain another 2-3Ē overnight unless all that convection collapses. This could wind up being one of the wettest days weíve had in years. No flood watches out either. Iím a little surprised.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on September 24, 2018, 10:24:21 PM
We'll see what the NWS recorded in the ol' rain gauge today, but I'm guessing that today officially made this the wettest September on record up here. I'm completely over this weather pattern.  ;D
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 25, 2018, 05:41:49 AM
Areas in the foothills east of Knoxville have yet to see a half inch of rain from this system.  Our heaviest rain looks to come Wednesday and Thursday as middle and west TN catch a break.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on September 25, 2018, 06:50:48 AM
Total from 630 yesterday morning to 630 this morning was 5.90Ē. Wettest 24 hour period Iíve recorded since moving into my house in October 2013. It was still raining when I left for work as well. I tried to go for a run this morning between showers. That did not work. I poured about a half cup of water out of my running shoes when I finished.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: WXHD on September 25, 2018, 07:50:47 AM
Please tell me it isnít going to rain Saturday evening. Iíll be at Ascend Ampitheater for Nine Inch Nails and Iíd prefer a dry evening since Iím sitting on the lawn.

Downward Spiral at Vandys Memorial Gym was the best show I ever saw. An then unknown Marilyn Manson opened followed by Jim Rose Freak Show. Then NIN. Epic. Enjoy and wish I was joining you!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Coach B on September 25, 2018, 09:09:37 AM
yeah 12z euro builds the ridge right back in long range .... looks be steady dose mid 80s for some highs

The average high for Nashville on this date is still around 80. However, the average lows this time of year outside of the heat island should be down in the low to mid 50s. I'm ready for some of that.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 25, 2018, 09:13:48 AM
OHX is forecasting upper 50s or near 60 for lows on a couple of mornings after the front clears tomorrow. 70s for highs on Thursday, but we're back in the 80s over the weekend.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on September 25, 2018, 01:52:11 PM
The Euro says 5-6Ē more rain in the southern valley by Friday evening. Iím very surprised to not see any flood products out. I can guarantee flooding if half that much rain falls. My area is totally saturated.
Edit: seems somebody was listening. There is a hydrologic outlook out for SE TN now.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on September 25, 2018, 02:50:13 PM
Let the Southeast Ridge have it's fun right now, then beat that sucker into submission come December.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 25, 2018, 02:57:55 PM
Let the Southeast Ridge have it's fun right now, then beat that sucker into submission come December.
going be interesting ... ridge seems be little strong for this time year ... day 10 in eurontoday does offer some hope ... but itís day10
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 25, 2018, 04:19:44 PM
Long range says no rest for the water logged...



(http://i67.tinypic.com/axm98y.gif)


A pretty amazing wet pattern occuring over much of the country in what is normally a drier time of the year. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on September 25, 2018, 09:32:18 PM
Long range says no rest for the water logged...



(http://i67.tinypic.com/axm98y.gif)


A pretty amazing wet pattern occuring over much of the country in what is normally a drier time of the year.

Iíve come to the conclusion that I am simply not going to catch a break. Itís time for a career change.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 26, 2018, 04:57:18 AM
Hopefully we will get good fall colors out of this.

Anything beats autumn 2016, anything.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on September 26, 2018, 06:27:00 AM
Surprise, surprise HTX radar has had a hardware failure. I swear it has to be the least reliable radar in existence. It's possible to get coverage from FFC but rainfall estimates are usually off.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 26, 2018, 06:38:39 AM
Iíve come to the conclusion that I am simply not going to catch a break. Itís time for a career change.

What do you do?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on September 26, 2018, 08:28:58 AM
What do you do?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Erosion Prevention and Sediment Control Inspector. I work in Franklin where the rules and regulations are super strict.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on September 26, 2018, 11:41:04 AM
I have a meeting this afternoon.  Right now I'm wondering if I should take the truck or the kayak or put the kayak in the back of the truck just in case I have to paddle back.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on September 26, 2018, 11:50:46 AM
Schools are being called at noon here today. I doubt they will go tomorrow either. Central and northern parts of the county got 4-6Ē of rain (and some wind damage) just last night. Looks like we are under the fire hose for the next 36 hours or so.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on September 26, 2018, 11:58:39 AM
Knox County is now under a Flash Flood Warning until 7PM.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on September 26, 2018, 01:18:43 PM
Someone in Soddy Daisy was killed by floodwaters this morning. The school cancellation was announced right after this happened:

http://www.chattanoogan.com/2018/9/26/376928/Woman-Dies-In-Flood-Waters-At-Soddy.aspx (http://www.chattanoogan.com/2018/9/26/376928/Woman-Dies-In-Flood-Waters-At-Soddy.aspx)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 26, 2018, 01:59:10 PM
Strong front on 12z euro long range ... but it never makes it to us ... that se ridge means business ... strong ridge for this time year ...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on September 26, 2018, 02:09:43 PM
Someone in Soddy Daisy was killed by floodwaters this morning. The school cancellation was announced right after this happened:

http://www.chattanoogan.com/2018/9/26/376928/Woman-Dies-In-Flood-Waters-At-Soddy.aspx (http://www.chattanoogan.com/2018/9/26/376928/Woman-Dies-In-Flood-Waters-At-Soddy.aspx)

And here's why...

[url]https://www.facebook.com/jessica.keith1/posts/10212666492886509?__xts__[0]=68.ARDeDa05P2yUawho413s5JH5ocXxFghKTI_wgprar6fljf0Qh17bCu0rhqCqtB3tGqNZZ3buqyiu6yZGZRFX4p73CyKH02345NBzRNVQy-z7KNaP3igZjHZSDNW7moJ1ObHwQ2RW1cXFPBhBg5JlewOdMCUheqL6k6gJngxfftpZWu9n2ZtrXbuC-U_sPMZIQ6y4mrvPMpHYU2JcBiXLJ7v3oenr8Z5rGKq7lfveRg&__tn__=C-R[url]

I can certainly see now why she would have left her house. Very sad. I'm definitely familiar with Little Soddy Creek but this might be the most out of control I've ever seen it.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 26, 2018, 02:14:11 PM
Nice much more fall like day here in west state- cloudy breezy and 70.

Cold air wonít really push further south until the MJO moves out of 8-1, which is about 10-14 days. Euro weeklies totally support below normal from 2nd week of October onward- starting from West and pushing East.  Phases 8Ė2 are favorably for cold air in winter but not in early Fall. That will change as we move into November.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Skillsweather on September 26, 2018, 02:25:13 PM
Strong front on 12z euro long range ... but it never makes it to us ... that se ridge means business ... strong ridge for this time year ...
How much rain do we get in long range via euro?
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 26, 2018, 04:11:29 PM
Possible tornado in Fentress Co. this morning.

https://www.wkrn.com/news/possible-tornado-causes-damage-in-fentress-county/1476461551 (https://www.wkrn.com/news/possible-tornado-causes-damage-in-fentress-county/1476461551)

Post Merge: September 26, 2018, 04:57:39 PM
Average low in Knoxville for today is 56.  This morning's low was 70--the warmest low temperature recorded for the date. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 27, 2018, 07:10:34 AM
Upper 50ís and rain. Itís been awhile.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 27, 2018, 07:51:59 AM
Upper 50ís and rain. Itís been awhile.
yeah I actually broke out long sleeve shirt first time season this morning ... getting tired this rainy pattern... last night gfs long still showing a stubborn ridge  over east heading through first week October...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 27, 2018, 07:58:27 AM
I had 1.5" of rain yesterday, and it's pouring this morning.  I'm going out on a limb here by saying that I think this year's wildfire season will be one of the weakest in the last decade.  I can't even get a fire started in the fire pit at this point.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 27, 2018, 08:03:08 AM
This stretch has come at a perfect time for me. We had our yard aerated and seeded and are supposed to keep the yard watered daily for three weeks ($$). I haven't had to water at all for the last week. That will save on the water bill.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Skillsweather on September 27, 2018, 08:47:12 AM
The rain looks way more widespread today then what i figured it would be..
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on September 27, 2018, 09:41:12 AM
When I left the house this morning my storm total rain was 7.56Ē since Tuesday morning. Looks like another 1-2Ē today. Wettest September since 2009.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 27, 2018, 11:09:56 AM
Just. Over 10 inches rain my area now less week ... enough please
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Skillsweather on September 27, 2018, 11:51:22 AM
Ohx has me at borderline 6 inchs at 1am and its rained very lightly off and on all day. Probably got another half to 1 inch. Flooding would be so bad if we had a heavy rain system this weekend. But it looks like we will have at least 7 days of drying out according to hpc outlook. No droughts this fall.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: tnwthrwtchr on September 27, 2018, 12:29:23 PM
Feels great out there today.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 27, 2018, 04:12:23 PM
Freeze/Frost warnings cover all of North Dakota and parts of adjoining states.  Fall is creeping in, even if slowly. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on September 28, 2018, 07:05:00 AM
Storm total for this event was 8.33Ē for me. Many areas to my west got closer to 12Ē. If it hasnít been so dry in the week leading up to this event it would have been worse. As it is the swimming portion of this weekends Ironman has been cancelled due to strong currents.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 28, 2018, 07:57:42 AM
I had another 1.85" of rain overnight, which brings the storm total up to 3.79" since this started.  Up to 7.84" for the month.  Definitely one of the wettest Septembers I can remember. 

Post Merge: September 28, 2018, 07:59:26 AM
Storm total for this event was 8.33Ē for me. Many areas to my west got closer to 12Ē. If it hasnít been so dry in the week leading up to this event it would have been worse. As it is the swimming portion of this weekends Ironman has been cancelled due to strong currents.

I bet the Ocoee is a sight to behold after that much rain. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on September 28, 2018, 02:50:11 PM
I had another 1.85" of rain overnight, which brings the storm total up to 3.79" since this started.  Up to 7.84" for the month.  Definitely one of the wettest Septembers I can remember. 

Post Merge: September 28, 2018, 07:59:26 AM
I bet the Ocoee is a sight to behold after that much rain.
Believe it or not, the heavy rain mostly stayed west of the Ocoee basin. They have had the spillway open this week, but flows look comparable to standard rafting season releases. My project site in Polk Co. only recorded 4.3Ē all week.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 28, 2018, 03:31:54 PM
Believe it or not, the heavy rain mostly stayed west of the Ocoee basin. They have had the spillway open this week, but flows look comparable to standard rafting season releases. My project site in Polk Co. only recorded 4.3Ē all week.

Looks like most areas along the NC border and in the mountains were spared the worst.  Some sharp gradients in precipitation amounts are seen near the NC border compared to just 20 miles west. 

(http://i67.tinypic.com/2zqzfxd.jpg)

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 29, 2018, 04:28:32 AM
0z euro now says... se ridge.. is not going to give up... just quite yet in the extended... ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: StormNine on September 29, 2018, 11:10:09 AM
I think that Leslie east of Bermuda is going to help strengthen the ridge and push it further west towards our area.  Like Curt said, the MJO, although is favorable for the winter time, is not that favorable for us in September/October.  MJO 8-1 climatology favors ridging in the East and a Cold Northern Plains. 

Remember that some Weak to Moderate El-Nino's don't get that cold till January anyway.   
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 29, 2018, 11:42:00 AM
I think that Leslie east of Bermuda is going to help strengthen the ridge and push it further west towards our area.  Like Curt said, the MJO, although is favorable for the winter time, is not that favorable for us in September/October.  MJO 8-1 climatology favors ridging in the East and a Cold Northern Plains. 

Remember that some Weak to Moderate El-Nino's don't get that cold till January anyway.

I wouldn't mind a long mild stretch into late fall.  We didn't have a spring, so a long autumn with perfect temps in the 60's would be welcome before winter comes roaring in.  What I don't want is tempertures lingering in the 80's forever.   


Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 29, 2018, 12:44:34 PM
I wouldn't mind a long mild stretch into late fall.  We didn't have a spring, so a long autumn with perfect temps in the 60's would be welcome before winter comes roaring in.  What I don't want is tempertures lingering in the 80's forever.
fixing get ... enjoy... no pattern change soon
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 29, 2018, 02:28:13 PM
EPS 46 day average temps
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180929/72508b26c6e76d8083b9dc14f0bd3507.png)

EPS Control Snowfall through day 46
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180929/dcf42568ac3e2dfada55ea9fc617dbf3.png)

Pattern change is in the 11-16 day time frame as cold air takes over West to East- greatest anomalies West. Wouldnít be surprised to see frost and freeze by 3rd and 4th week of October - pretty close to on time outside UHI.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 29, 2018, 02:55:46 PM
Oh goodness- fantasy posts have been initiated. We'll be looking at these long-range runs all through October while it's 84 degrees out. The SE Ridge isn't going anywhere until late October.

The cold airmass is in place to our north around 50 degrees latitude. Snowpack is building in Canada. So at least it isn't an utter torch for all of North America. Pacific NW looks chilly next month. Same with the Northern Plains. Possibly above average snowfall in those states early on.
Title: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 29, 2018, 03:47:07 PM
Oh goodness- fantasy posts have been initiated. We'll be looking at these long-range runs all through October while it's 84 degrees out. The SE Ridge isn't going anywhere until late October.

The cold airmass is in place to our north around 50 degrees latitude. Snowpack is building in Canada. So at least it isn't an utter torch for all of North America. Pacific NW looks chilly next month. Same with the Northern Plains. Possibly above average snowfall in those states early on.


Well since thereís no accumulating snow for anyone on this board on the long range EPS, I wouldnít hardly call that a fantasy map.

I think both maps show where the cold air is most likely to be over the next 6 weeks regardless of snow. Clearly, it dives into the central part of the country starting next week and slowly spreads east as October and November ensue and as the MJO starts to rotate into phases that promote cold air into the east.

In the meantime, enjoy some some low humidity 80ís for the next couple of weeks along with Bruceís cryptic daily posts about no pattern change.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 29, 2018, 03:58:47 PM

Well since thereís no accumulating snow for anyone on this board on the long range EPS, I wouldnít hardly call that a fantasy map.

I think both maps show where the cold air is most likely to be over the next 6 weeks regardless of snow. Clearly, it dives into the central part of the country starting next week and slowly spreads east as October and November ensue and as the MJO starts to rotate into phases that promote cold air into the east.

In the meantime, enjoy some some low humidity 80ís for the next couple of weeks along with Bruceís cryptic daily posts about no pattern change.
yeah. But pretty close to home ... showing some ... letís see if this verifies.  Or the Epps is drunk ...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 29, 2018, 04:03:59 PM

Well since thereís no accumulating snow for anyone on this board on the long range EPS, I wouldnít hardly call that a fantasy map.

I think both maps show where the cold air is most likely to be over the next 6 weeks regardless of snow. Clearly, it dives into the central part of the country starting next week and slowly spreads east as October and November ensue and as the MJO starts to rotate into phases that promote cold air into the east.

In the meantime, enjoy some some low humidity 80ís for the next couple of weeks along with Bruceís cryptic daily posts about no pattern change.

I mostly kid, Curt, and I know that was not your intention. But let's be honest, it takes a single image of a long-range forecast model with 0.25 inches of snow over Tennessee to yank some people's chains.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 29, 2018, 04:34:24 PM
I mostly kid, Curt, and I know that was not your intention. But let's be honest, it takes a single image of a long-range forecast model with 0.25 inches of snow over Tennessee to yank some people's chains.

Oh yes. When the first sleet pellet hits the boundaries of this good state- someone will have it covered.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 29, 2018, 06:45:38 PM
Winter will get here all in good time.  In the meantime, I'm loving the upper 60's at sunset while listening to the crickets, owls, and other nightly nature sounds.  So relaxing.  All the windows are open, and I'm enjoying the now
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on September 30, 2018, 08:38:37 AM
Well those 2 days of fall were awesome...now back to summer. Long range Euro shows no break through the 10 day run.  ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: StormNine on September 30, 2018, 09:00:09 AM
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

Do you all believe in the Great Blowtorch?  If you wait for him on Halloween night he will bear great gifts of mosquitos, 80s and lower 90s, and humidity. 

 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

He might eventually bring a good deal of rain as well.   

Post Merge: September 30, 2018, 09:04:26 AM
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

It should be noted that 2002 pops up as an analog on multiple occasions.  That will be something to watch as it could strengthen the case of using 2002-03 as an analog for this upcoming winter.     
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 30, 2018, 09:34:14 AM
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

Do you all believe in the Great Blowtorch?  If you wait for him on Halloween night he will bear great gifts of mosquitos, 80s and lower 90s, and humidity. 

 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

He might eventually bring a good deal of rain as well.   

Post Merge: September 30, 2018, 09:04:26 AM
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

It should be noted that 2002 pops up as an analog on multiple occasions.  That will be something to watch as it could strengthen the case of using 2002-03 as an analog for this upcoming winter.   
agree with NOAA ... we see change to much cooler ... be later December ...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on September 30, 2018, 09:56:14 AM
agree with NOAA ... we see change to much cooler ... be later December ...

No.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on September 30, 2018, 11:17:53 AM
Beautiful day out.  Blue skies & a light breeze stirring the leaves to fall from the hickories.  Wish the 70's would just keep going for awhile.  Not looking forward to the mid 80's coming back mid-week.   
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 30, 2018, 12:47:03 PM
No.
pacific better do a complete overhaul... we going get any much cooler soon... we see
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 30, 2018, 01:29:45 PM
pacific better do a complete overhaul... we going get any much cooler soon... we see

Bruce, are you alright? Asking for a friend
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on September 30, 2018, 01:49:01 PM
Bruce, are you alright? Asking for a friend
too much heat.... lmao... least my patriots kicking a$$
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on September 30, 2018, 02:09:39 PM
too much heat.... lmao... least my patriots kicking a$$

They need to be after a terrible start to the season
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on September 30, 2018, 04:15:23 PM
Model watching is easy right now. Go to Euro 500mb at 240 hours, anything changed, nope, curse at current pattern, close and come back in 12 hours. Wash, rinse, repeat in less than a minute.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 30, 2018, 09:41:32 PM
Model watching is easy right now. Go to Euro 500mb at 240 hours, anything changed, nope, curse at current pattern, close and come back in 12 hours. Wash, rinse, repeat in less than a minute.
Only going to have to wait 6 hours. Euro going to run at 18z and 6z. It will add to the madness for winter threats.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: harlequin on September 30, 2018, 10:53:26 PM
We are expecting our first rain in the 4 months I've lived out here! Rain rams up in the Bay Area from November to April. The average precip is the same as the state of Tennessee during the winter months whereas the average rain for June, July, August, and September combined is under a half inch.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DoV8bfjXUAAiORs.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on October 01, 2018, 06:43:05 AM
Only going to have to wait 6 hours. Euro going to run at 18z and 6z. It will add to the madness for winter threats.

Interesting. The more the merrier. The less I have to look at the GFS the better.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 01, 2018, 08:02:20 AM
Welcome to October.  The average high this time of year for the Knoxville area is usually around the middle to upper 70's.  Unfortunately, that won't be the case for the next 7 days with temperatures climbing into the middle 80's every afternoon.  Summer is just hanging around like the mosquitos after all that rain.  Both need to move on. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 01, 2018, 08:22:53 AM
Welcome to October.  The average high this time of year for the Knoxville area is usually around the middle to upper 70's.  Unfortunately, that won't be the case for the next 7 days with temperatures climbing into the middle 80's every afternoon.  Summer is just hanging around like the mosquitos after all that rain.  Both need to move on.
i thought you might enjoy the sound of mosquitoes buzzing around your ear , while sitting on porch at night....lol
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on October 01, 2018, 09:39:03 AM
Euro has impressive snow cover across the northern plains for October for the next 10 days. In fact, I donít know if Iíve ever seen that much expansive snow cover this early up north.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 01, 2018, 10:33:23 AM
Euro has impressive snow cover across the northern plains for October for the next 10 days. In fact, I donít know if Iíve ever seen that much expansive snow cover this early up north.
within a week... global s. Should start to really show  massive pattern change ... perhaps? Fingers crossed
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 01, 2018, 12:09:22 PM
within a week... global s. Should start to really show  massive pattern change ... perhaps? Fingers crossed

Where did you see this? Based on what I've been looking at, a major pattern change is at least a couple weeks away.

The setup will absolutely be setting record highs in the Midwest next week.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 01, 2018, 01:08:41 PM
This about sums it up...

https://youtu.be/-MtJoQ8Jc9M (https://youtu.be/-MtJoQ8Jc9M)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 01, 2018, 01:18:27 PM
Where did you see this? Based on what I've been looking at, a major pattern change is at least a couple weeks away.

The setup will absolutely be setting record highs in the Midwest next week.
was basing it off epps... which been showing some big snow cover In upper Midwest as curt alluded to earlier... going into 2nd week October ...

Post Merge: October 01, 2018, 01:20:13 PM
This about sums it up...

https://youtu.be/-MtJoQ8Jc9M (https://youtu.be/-MtJoQ8Jc9M)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
thats. To funny there... lol
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on October 01, 2018, 02:37:21 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181001/c1d5dfb15badabcdbb227801a2c0942c.png)

Hereís why itís warm. We are in MJO phases 8 and moving into 1. The change from 1 to 2 is the pattern flipper.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181001/0c01de4f6a410e2fedf004128e8c801a.png)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on October 01, 2018, 03:29:17 PM
This about sums it up...

https://youtu.be/-MtJoQ8Jc9M (https://youtu.be/-MtJoQ8Jc9M)

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If that aint the truth. I had a good lather going, helping my kids put out Halloween decor in the front yard yesterday.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Skillsweather on October 02, 2018, 11:20:36 AM
Rained yesterday and a lot today. Still more to come too
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: snowdog on October 02, 2018, 02:21:37 PM
Well, not much looks to be changing in the long term. So, while we "enjoy" the lack of fall, at least we can have a laugh...

(https://heavyeditorial.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/cover16.jpg?quality=65&strip=all)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 02, 2018, 02:42:43 PM
Well, not much looks to be changing in the long term. So, while we "enjoy" the lack of fall, at least we can have a laugh...

(https://heavyeditorial.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/cover16.jpg?quality=65&strip=all)

Thanks a lot.  You've ruined pumpkin pie for me.    ::sick::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 02, 2018, 02:50:36 PM
Well, not much looks to be changing in the long term. So, while we "enjoy" the lack of fall, at least we can have a laugh...

(https://heavyeditorial.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/cover16.jpg?quality=65&strip=all)
lmao
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 02, 2018, 04:30:05 PM
I told someone the other day that September was the "new August."

I guess it follows that October is the new September. Hopefully, maybe, we'll have a cool snap toward the middle or latter part of the month.  ::shrug::

Maybe the leaves will start changing by Christmas. lol
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Skillsweather on October 02, 2018, 05:44:23 PM
I told someone the other day that September was the "new August."

I guess it follows that October is the new September. Hopefully, maybe, we'll have a cool snap toward the middle or latter part of the month.  ::shrug::

Maybe the leaves will start changing by Christmas. lol
Actually leaves are already falling off around here. I guess the sun angle/ shorter daylight times cause that. And maybe only on some trees. Whos ready for 80s on Halloween. have fun wearing costume kiddos lol. Coming home with their candy bag melted
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 03, 2018, 06:18:00 AM
At least the season has changed in some areas of the lower 48...

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=48.2361&lon=-101.2961#.W7Sk6BZOnYU


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 03, 2018, 08:22:48 AM
Starting to hear and read 73. 74 one top analogs for this up coming winter ...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: StormNine on October 03, 2018, 10:36:09 AM
The averages have definitely risen over the last few years as they are calculated using a new data set.  The 1970-2000 average in the Hopkinsville/Clarksville area for September was around 83F and now 1981-2010 (I assume that is what is being used) is now around 85F.  October's average high used to be around 71-72 and now it is about 75F.  I wonder if we get another 2-3 degree rise in our averages in the Fall Months with the next set of averages.   

Post Merge: October 03, 2018, 10:38:49 AM
Another issue we have had is that the PNA has gone sharply negative sending the cold air out West and strengthening the SE Ridge. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

It should be heading closer to neutral by mid-month which will be one thing that should allow for this pattern to break along with us moving out of the MJO 7,8, and 1 stages which we want in the winter but not in the fall.   
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on October 03, 2018, 10:49:49 AM
Starting to hear and read 73. 74 one top analogs for this up coming winter ...

73-74 Not even close. ENSO was strong La Nina so that eliminates it right out of the gate.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 03, 2018, 10:53:44 AM
73-74 Not even close. ENSO was strong La Nina so that eliminates it right out of the gate.
what I thought ... was like no way ...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 03, 2018, 12:58:06 PM
Hope this pattern changes to cooler soon if for no other reason but the sake of our winter.  One thing I've noted over the years is that a very warm late fall usually turns into a lack luster winter.  2016 is the most recent example of a very warm Oct-Nov, and a non-existent winter for most of us. 
Title: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on October 03, 2018, 01:27:37 PM
But remember- we were headed into the unusual super El NiŮo which is usually a warm pattern almost everywhere. That January winter storm was a total thread the needle event- and does show that even super El NiŮo can have some winter storm potential. We are now headed to a weak based central pacific El NiŮo- nothing like the SST in 2016.

Like Steven said, this pattern is about to break starting next week after the MJO leaves phase one. The latest euro weeklies go below normal after day 10 starting West then moving east through the entirety of the run. That jives with MJO phases 2-5 in the fall which is a cool pattern. I will say the leaves may peak later this year though.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 03, 2018, 01:40:48 PM
But remember- we were headed into the unusual super El NiŮo which is usually a warm pattern almost everywhere. That January winter storm was a total thread the needle event- and does show that even super El NiŮo can have some winter storm potential. We are now headed to a weak based central pacific El NiŮo- nothing like the SST in 2016.

Like Steven said, this pattern is about to break starting next week after the MJO leaves phase one. The latest euro weeklies go below normal after day 10 starting West then moving east through the entirety of the run. That jives with MJO phases 2-5 in the fall which is a cool pattern. I will say the leaves may peak later this year though.

Good point.  That was an unusual pattern.  Most of the good winters I can remember lately seem to have a theme of cold late in fall.  Not sure which year it was, but in 2013 or 2014 we even had about an inch of snow on Thanksgiving--a rarity here.  A colder late autumn seems to foretell a cold winter coming. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 03, 2018, 02:02:31 PM
Good point.  That was an usual pattern.  Most of the good winters I can remember lately seem to have a theme of cold late in fall.  Not sure which year it was, but in 2013 or 2014 we even had about an inch of snow on Thanksgiving--a rarity here.  A colder late autumn seems to foretell a cold winter coming.
2014....

Post Merge: October 03, 2018, 02:26:01 PM
12z euro. Still has u above normal temp wise whole run...ridge does cave in finally though...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: StormNine on October 03, 2018, 03:10:15 PM
2002 has shown up on some of the analogs for this current pattern.  2002 had 80s leading up all the way to the Veteran's Day Weekend Outbreak.  2002-03 is starting to shape up as a solid analog it has even had a similar type of Atlantic Hurricane Season.

2002-03 was a Modoki/West-Based El-Nino as well.  1957-58, 2009-10, and 2014-15 were also Modoki.  I wonder if anyone has a list of the Modoki years?
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: StormNine on October 03, 2018, 08:48:45 PM
This may need to go into the Winter Thread

Modoki El-Nino's (those that were strong Modoki)

1957-58
1963-64
1965-66
1968-69
1977-78
1986-87 (this was the first one that scientists started to recognize as being different)
1991-92
1994-95
2002-03
2004-05
2009-10
2014-15

2006-07 was right on the traditional/modoki edge.  It was a bit further east than a normal Modoki but not as far west or quite-as basin wide as a traditional. 

Traditional El-Nino's
1951-52
1976-77
1982-83
1987-88
1997-98

One thing to note is that the PDO is very important.  The lousy winters that were Modoki (1991-92, 1994-95, and 2004-05) had a neutral or negative PDO.  The rocking winters of 2002-03, 2009-10, and 2014-15 had a +PDO. If the PDO stays negative (it is currently slightly negative) the cold and snowy east outlook could bust. 

 

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 03, 2018, 08:59:07 PM


One thing to note is that the PDO is very important.  The lousy winters that were Modoki (1991-92, 1994-95, and 2004-05) had a neutral or negative PDO.  The rocking winters of 2002-03, 2009-10, and 2014-15 had a +PDO. If the PDO stays negative (it is currently slightly negative) the cold and snowy east outlook could bust.
That sounds worrisome.  Is the PDO known to flip to a different phase quickly?  As in, is there hope for a change to a +PDO over the next few months before winter arrives?
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 03, 2018, 09:03:44 PM
That sounds worrisome.  Is the PDO known to flip to a different phase quickly?  As in, is there hope for a change to a +PDO over the next few months before winter arrives?
no one on this board can really answer that... cause every year is different... only the man up stairs really knows what is going take place... gut feeling were headed towards a milder winter... ::bangingheadintowall::.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Skillsweather on October 03, 2018, 09:05:51 PM
no one on this board can really answer that... cause every year is different... only the man up stairs really knows what is going take place... gut feeling were headed towards a milder winter... ::bangingheadintowall::.
Bruce says warm winter. You know what that means fellas. Time to load up on wood about to be brutally cold. Ha
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on October 03, 2018, 09:24:42 PM
This may need to go into the Winter Thread

Modoki El-Nino's (those that were strong Modoki)

1957-58
1963-64
1965-66
1968-69
1977-78
1986-87 (this was the first one that scientists started to recognize as being different)
1991-92
1994-95
2002-03
2004-05
2009-10
2014-15

2006-07 was right on the traditional/modoki edge.  It was a bit further east than a normal Modoki but not as far west or quite-as basin wide as a traditional. 

Traditional El-Nino's
1951-52
1976-77
1982-83
1987-88
1997-98

One thing to note is that the PDO is very important.  The lousy winters that were Modoki (1991-92, 1994-95, and 2004-05) had a neutral or negative PDO.  The rocking winters of 2002-03, 2009-10, and 2014-15 had a +PDO. If the PDO stays negative (it is currently slightly negative) the cold and snowy east outlook could bust.

Keep in mind the modoki ninos of 63-64 and 65-66 both of which were negative PDO- had brutal periods of snow and cold temps. In fact both winters had record snowfall and temps below zero for much of the state- including Memphis 14 inch pre Christmas snowfall and record low temp of -13 (December 63). QBO  and low solar come into play as well. We will probably stay low negative to neutral QBO - very similar to the winter of 63-64.

What you donít (if you like cold and snow)want is extreme enso (positive or negative), strong negative PDO (although December 63 was strong negative), and strong positive QBO.  (PDO is a bit more variable than QBO.) Any one of those above mentioned can override another. None of those are likely this winter.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on October 03, 2018, 09:31:06 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181004/d0ad61892682016d54e16bcb82c4d2f0.png)

This is an important difference between the winters of the 60-80ís and the 90ís-now. The positive AMO is probably about to go negative in the next few years.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 03, 2018, 11:07:35 PM
Could we not post about gut feelings? Don't make predictions about something you can't back up with evidence.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 04, 2018, 03:18:23 AM
Could we not post about gut feelings? Don't make predictions about something you can't back up with evidence.
lol...back up?... not backing up nothing... just saying a gut feeling... sorry, if i struck a nerve... just sit and enjoy the  ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: wfrogge on October 04, 2018, 08:44:56 AM
Could we not post about gut feelings? Don't make predictions about something you can't back up with evidence.

Well to be fair folks here post all the time with things like ďwe are due for weather pattern XĒ when that is nothing more than a gut feeling. Itís almost akin to saying a casino slot machine should pay off eventually cause ďitís dueĒ
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 04, 2018, 09:05:01 AM
Well, I finally invested in some propane gas logs for the fireplace, so I'm ready for any icy power outages if they occur.  Retiring the ole kerosene heater for supplemental heat.  I'll keep it around for emergencies. 

And considering how winters have been for a long time, if we get one good snow (4+ inches), I consider the winter a success.  Same goes for 3 or more 1-2" inch snowfalls.  If you don't expect epic, you won't be disappointed with "ok". 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Drifter49 on October 04, 2018, 10:12:58 AM
Well, I finally invested in some propane gas logs for the fireplace, so I'm ready for any icy power outages if they occur.  Retiring the ole kerosene heater for supplemental heat.  I'll keep it around for emergencies. 

And considering how winters have been for a long time, if we get one good snow (4+ inches), I consider the winter a success.  Same goes for 3 or more 1-2" inch snowfalls.  If you don't expect epic, you won't be disappointed with "ok".

Iím perfectly fine with ok.  Gas logs are awesome without the smell of kerosene.


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Drifter49 on October 04, 2018, 10:14:52 AM
lol...back up?... not backing up nothing... just saying a gut feeling... sorry, if i struck a nerve... just sit and enjoy the  ::blowtorch::

I have a gut feeling that Bruce is gonna blow a vessel if thereís no severe weather anytime soon


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Jilly on October 04, 2018, 12:31:41 PM
Could we not post about gut feelings? Don't make predictions about something you can't back up with evidence.
Yesterday I saw an entirely red wooly-worm, with no black on it at all.
 ::whistling::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on October 04, 2018, 01:16:52 PM
Yesterday I saw an entirely red wooly-worm, with no black on it at all.
 ::whistling::
It's lucky to have survived the huge crop of walnuts I've seen on the ground  ::pondering::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: WXHD on October 04, 2018, 02:21:37 PM
Well, I finally invested in some propane gas logs for the fireplace, so I'm ready for any icy power outages if they occur.  Retiring the ole kerosene heater for supplemental heat.  I'll keep it around for emergencies. 

And considering how winters have been for a long time, if we get one good snow (4+ inches), I consider the winter a success.  Same goes for 3 or more 1-2" inch snowfalls.  If you don't expect epic, you won't be disappointed with "ok".

I dream of installing a natural gas whole house generator. Happy to have our gas fireplace in the mean time!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 04, 2018, 03:21:00 PM
Yesterday I saw an entirely red wooly-worm, with no black on it at all.
 ::whistling::

Beware of high spider webs and low hornets nests...

...unless the spiders and hornets are trying to avoid each other, maybe.  :P

(https://media.giphy.com/media/rwsFEH0CzPfCU/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 04, 2018, 04:46:58 PM
I have a gut feeling this won't stop
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on October 04, 2018, 05:07:06 PM
While weíre on the subject, I happened to catch this guy scurrying across the road today down in Franklin. I did not see any color bands/segments, just a solid rust/orange-ish color with maybe a hint of black down the middle. Have no idea what that means, if anything.[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 04, 2018, 05:42:22 PM
Iím perfectly fine with ok.  Gas logs are awesome without the smell of kerosene.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I live in an older log cabin built back in the mid 80's.  It's solid as a rock (built from huge hickory/oak logs) but could be better insulated, and needs some work (like me).  The additional gas logs will make it much cozier watching the snowfall this winter and help the heat pump during Arctic outbreaks.  Now my 3 dog nights will only be in reference to music, not using them to stay warm in bed.  But still keeping the dogs, of course.   :D
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mempho on October 05, 2018, 04:28:45 AM
It's just gross outside in the mornings.  I read somewhere that this heat ridge is in the upper 10th of the 99th percentile for October-- that's literally 1 in 1,000. 

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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 05, 2018, 06:58:13 AM
Go Big Blue!

(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 05, 2018, 08:29:09 AM
Go Big Blue!

(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif)
::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 05, 2018, 11:10:51 AM
Taking this in stride and soaking up the last bit of summer before it gets cooler out. I will welcome autumn weather with open arms, but if this is what we are going to get for now, I may as well enjoy it. I plan to get a nice, sticky Southern sweat going today.  ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Drifter49 on October 05, 2018, 11:16:08 AM
Pretty much sums it up!


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 05, 2018, 12:46:07 PM
I took the top back off the jeep and going for a long drive in the mountains this weekend.  Might as well enjoy topless weather while I can.   ;)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: collinsk on October 05, 2018, 08:30:51 PM
I looked back at Oct 1974 in Nashville and many many days in early October with highs in 60's and lows in 40's. I recall those kinds of Octobers around here when I was in grade school.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 06, 2018, 06:51:22 AM
Judah Cohen says Siberian snow cover is severely lacking so far this autumn (compared to previous years), and long range CFS shows little falling.  However, his theory of heavy snow cover in Siberia leading to a cold, snowy winters in the eastern U.S. has taken a hit the last few years.  There's been plenty of snow over there, but the influence here has been minimal.  Judah has this to say about that...

Quote
Yes the correlation with the AO has dropped but the correlation of the AO with winter temperatures has also dropped.  I do think that something strange is going on with the AO.


From the discussion, I take it that even when the AO goes severely negative in winter, the usual result of colder weather in the U.S. (or the mid-latitudes in general) doesn't occur.  Maybe we're just running out of cold air. 
 ::hot::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 06, 2018, 07:10:22 AM
Looking at the FV3 GFS , it looks like fall arrives Thursday and sticks around. Even has lows in the 30s by mid month.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 06, 2018, 07:42:27 AM
I'll welcome 30's with open arms.  Waking up to summer soup this morning.  Dense fog with temperatures and dewpoints locked together in the upper 60's. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 06, 2018, 08:26:42 AM
Yeah... itís bye bye ridge for now ...
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 06, 2018, 10:10:33 AM
In the mean time, the extended summer continues. Weíre with family at a pumpkin patch and farm for fall activities- it does not feel it. Just another typical July or August day.

It was funny to hear forecasts on the radio talk about the very warm near record weather when itís just seemed like a continuation of same ole.

Climatology has driven the daily averages way down, while the actual weather hasnít budged much.


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 06, 2018, 10:16:50 AM
Oddly I think Iím taking to this better than I would if it had become cool and then we had a hot spell. Other than a brief day or two cool off, itís just been a continuation of what itís been and I havenít reaclimatized to anything different.


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 06, 2018, 12:57:45 PM
Temp = 86F.  Dewpoint = 70F. 

O Fall, Where Art Thou?
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on October 06, 2018, 01:20:25 PM
Not only am I sick of cutting the grass, I'm sick of being drenched in sweat and drained after I'm finished. IT WAS HOT & HUMID AF AT 7:30 LAST NIGHT. HURRY UP FALL.

Also, we now have a system in the Gulf that will likely become a TS before landfall. We'll get some of that plus the cold front coming through Weds-Thurs.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Clint on October 06, 2018, 02:02:06 PM
Looks like we have 80's through the state today with KCHA reporting 90 degrees.

(https://i.imgur.com/eRxNtqP.png)

But not fret...we will start getting some Fall temps by the middle of next week.

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 06, 2018, 02:35:55 PM
Despite this ridiculous heat in October, I'm still feeling good about the upcoming winter.  The warm water off of Alaska (northeast Pacific) argues for a trough in the eastern U.S..  Every decent winter we've had since 2009 has had that warm pool of water in the northeast Pacific.  It's back.  So...BEWARE.   >:D ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Charles L. on October 06, 2018, 04:49:21 PM
I was at the McMinnville Autumn Street Fair today and there was nothing autumn about today.  ::hot::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 07, 2018, 07:07:13 AM
Unless it changes, next weekend the long awaited change to fall-like weather will begin.  Some will probably have lows in the upper 40's by Saturday morning, with highs in the mid to upper 60's.  Gonna feel so good!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 07, 2018, 09:05:39 AM
Tropical depression forming in the Gulf.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 07, 2018, 09:36:56 AM
Tropical depression forming in the Gulf.

Looks to become a hurricane before making landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast.  Some models bring it right over TN, while others turn in it eastward into the Carolinas.  Official forecast takes it more eastward.  That could change as models decide how fast or slow our fall cold front moves through later in the week.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?cone#contents (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?cone#contents)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on October 07, 2018, 11:03:57 AM
The Carolinas really don't need another day or more of tropical rains just as they start to dry out from Florence.  Let's hope it swings west.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 07, 2018, 11:44:55 AM
GFS thinks the cooler weather will arrive on Thursday in sync with this tropical system.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 07, 2018, 12:23:49 PM
Speed of the front pushing the tropical system along should keep rain amounts from getting anywhere close to Florence.  Still, the Carolinas don't need any additional water from the sky right now.

(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1538932767)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: lyngo on October 07, 2018, 02:34:27 PM
Looks to become a hurricane before making landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast.  Some models bring it right over TN, while others turn in it eastward into the Carolinas.  Official forecast takes it more eastward.  That could change as models decide how fast or slow our fall cold front moves through later in the week.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/35a1yc1.png)

Great...Iím in Port St. Joe this week which is in between Panama City and Apalachicola.  Depending on how strong this thing gets, it may be a short trip.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: WXHD on October 07, 2018, 02:38:38 PM
Great...Iím in Port St. Joe this week which is in between Panama City and Apalachicola.  Depending on how strong this thing gets, it may be a short trip.

We were in PSJ this July. Enjoyed our vacation. Hope you get to enjoy it and the fishing should get good!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 07, 2018, 03:02:22 PM
Meanwhile in Wyoming:

Quote
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
458 AM MDT Sun Oct 7 2018

...EARLY SEASON STORM TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY...

WYZ114-072200-
/O.CON.KCYS.WS.W.0016.000000T0000Z-181009T0600Z/
Snowy Range-
Including the cities of Centennial and Albany
458 AM MDT Sun Oct 7 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 14
  inches, with localized amounts up to 18 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Snowy Mountain Range. Highest amounts above 9000 feet.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to midnight MDT Monday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect extremely dangerous or impossible
  travel conditions with slick, snow covered roads and very low
  visibilities.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Clint on October 07, 2018, 06:08:43 PM
I love the color of blue ;D

(https://i.imgur.com/XUEqtGq.gif)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: NashRugger on October 07, 2018, 07:28:20 PM
Michael could pull an Opal from 1995, but actually be strengthening up to landfall.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: dwagner88 on October 07, 2018, 08:00:30 PM
Michael could pull an Opal from 1995, but actually be strengthening up to landfall.

Hopefully not. That was the only time in my childhood that I missed school due to weather other than snow.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on October 07, 2018, 09:16:24 PM
Michael is forecasted to strengthen rapidly and could very well end up being a weak Cat 3 at landfall. That is insane.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mempho on October 08, 2018, 04:01:58 AM
The Carolinas really don't need another day or more of tropical rains just as they start to dry out from Florence.  Let's hope it swings west.
Yes, I know it's exciting but I'm more excited about having some lower fall dewpoints instead of tropical humid conditions!

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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mempho on October 08, 2018, 04:13:19 AM
That's crazy.  Very Opal-esque.  Same general track, too!.

Crazy thing was that Opal almost went Cat 5 very suddenly.  For one advisory just hours from landfall, she hit 150mph sustained, as I recall.

That's a dream storm kind of scenario if you want to get high wind penetration far inland.

Seems like a good time to post this extreme scenario....

Michael is forecasted to strengthen rapidly and could very well end up being a weak Cat 3 at landfall. That is insane.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181008/99dae97f8bcad2a32bb49849802b5eea.jpg)

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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 08, 2018, 06:13:54 AM
Michael is looking far more organized this morning--and is growing in size, as well.  One has to wonder how strong it can get over the tepid waters of the Gulf.  It won't have a lot of time over water, being pulled rapidly north by the deepening trough that will bring fall to the eastern U.S.  But it may not need much time since it seems to be stronger now than earlier forecast. 

And, unfortunately, the Carolinas look to get hammered again by tropical rains. 





Post Merge: October 08, 2018, 06:20:28 AM
And don't look now, but this morning's GFS has a strong mid latitude storm bringing even colder air by mid month.  If it's to be believed, much of TN may see it's first frost/freeze of the autumn season.  Talk about a pattern flip. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Beth on October 08, 2018, 09:55:58 AM
We finally got pool winterized Saturday after roasting at the zoo on Friday.  This week will be spent cutting back plants that have to go in green house before frost. Not excited by winter coming but I will enjoy some cooler days thatís for sure.  :)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 08, 2018, 07:40:31 PM
We finally got pool winterized Saturday after roasting at the zoo on Friday.  This week will be spent cutting back plants that have to go in green house before frost. Not excited by winter coming but I will enjoy some cooler days thatís for sure.  :)


Here's hoping we see about 2 months worth of 60's, then the bottom can drop out and the snow can fly just in time for Christmas.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 08, 2018, 09:20:39 PM

Here's hoping we see about 2 months worth of 60's, then the bottom can drop out and the snow can fly just in time for Christmas.
odds of snow flying around here in west tn xmas time... are slim... least in my lifetime i can remember
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 08, 2018, 10:46:50 PM
Only one white Christmas in Middle TN since I've been alive. That was in 2010.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: harlequin on October 09, 2018, 12:47:16 AM
Only one white Christmas in Middle TN since I've been alive. That was in 2010.

2004 was a White Christmas in at least parts of Middle TN.

https://www.weather.gov/media/lzk/Randolph_Lawrence_Transfer.pdf (https://www.weather.gov/media/lzk/Randolph_Lawrence_Transfer.pdf)

Randolph and Lawrence counties in AR were transferred to NWS Little Rock. It makes sense geographically as well.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 09, 2018, 10:17:30 AM
I've noticed it's breezy today with some gusts- I wonder if we're seeing some distant gradient interaction between the approaching trough/autumn cold front, ridge to the east, and Michael in the Gulf.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 09, 2018, 01:04:23 PM
I've noticed it's breezy today with some gusts- I wonder if we're seeing some distant gradient interaction between the approaching trough/autumn cold front, ridge to the east, and Michael in the Gulf.

First real breezy day here in a long time.  As Chuck Mangione put it--it feels so good.

EDIT--Just like this will!

Quote
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 66.

Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 46.

Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 69.

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Skillsweather on October 10, 2018, 11:53:27 AM
Most look to miss out on the rain but there will be a line from southwest to north east that forms and stalls for hours. Looks to be just south and east of me unfortunately. I think it has to do with Michael and the front interacting at that one point.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 10, 2018, 06:39:22 PM
Went out for a short jog and was drenched with sweat by the time I was done.  A deep tropical airmass is definitely being pushed in here ahead of Michael.  Dewpoint is currently 72 with the temperature at 76. 

But this may be the last night the air has a tropical feel to it until next spring.  Either way, I won't know what to do come Thursday evening when temps crash into the 50's after sunset, and drop to 45 by morning.  And dewpoints in the 40s??  We haven't had an airmass that dry since last May. 

Considering we've not had any transition time, this cool snap will be a shock to the system.  Highs in the mid 60's gonna feel a bit chilly.  I'll still take it. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mempho on October 11, 2018, 04:14:34 AM
Went out for a short jog and was drenched with sweat by the time I was done.  A deep tropical airmass is definitely being pushed in here ahead of Michael.  Dewpoint is currently 72 with the temperature at 76. 

But this may be the last night the air has a tropical feel to it until next spring.  Either way, I won't know what to do come Thursday evening when temps crash into the 50's after sunset, and drop to 45 by morning.  And dewpoints in the 40s??  We haven't had an airmass that dry since last May. 

Considering we've not had any transition time, this cool snap will be a shock to the system.  Highs in the mid 60's gonna feel a bit chilly.  I'll still take it.
It's 55F here in west TN this morning! Fall has arrived! I'm about to go run!

It arrived too late for the Florida panhandle, unfortunately.

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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 11, 2018, 04:56:19 AM
Forecast for the next 7 days continues to cool as models catch on to the strength of the trough developing over the eastern U.S.  Temperatures are now forecast to remain below 70 for the entire period for this area!  Lows the next two nights are expected to be in the LOWER 40's.  What a massive change from what we've been seeing so far this autumn. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on October 11, 2018, 09:42:35 AM
Sergio looks to interact with arctic air in the southern plains for a really decent snow storm. Amarillo TX weather has always fascinated me but not to the point to live there. Sergio should get stalled along a front in western TN early next week and put down 2 to 3 inches of rain with some cool air to boot.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 11, 2018, 10:52:11 AM
Sergio looks to interact with arctic air in the southern plains for a really decent snow storm. Amarillo TX weather has always fascinated me but not to the point to live there. Sergio should get stalled along a front in western TN early next week and put down 2 to 3 inches of rain with some cool air to boot.

That's really interesting (how a tropical system can come into place in a winter weather scenario). That was the case with Sandy.

The high plains can get some good snow storms/blizzards in October anyway. I agree- fascinating area of the country.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Clay on October 11, 2018, 12:56:51 PM
Sergio looks to interact with arctic air in the southern plains for a really decent snow storm. Amarillo TX weather has always fascinated me but not to the point to live there. Sergio should get stalled along a front in western TN early next week and put down 2 to 3 inches of rain with some cool air to boot.
Similarly so, I've always felt the same about Denver. 80F one day, snow the next. 3000+ mean sunshine hours per month, 50" of annual snowfall. Some severe wx, but no humidity. Must be nice not being down wind from a massive tub of bath water.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 11, 2018, 04:36:05 PM
What is this strange figure that is in the forecast tonight... low of ď42Ē- what is that? What will that feel like?

Might we die if we are out in that?

;)


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 11, 2018, 05:58:16 PM
The sun is still above the horizon and it's already down to 63 with a good breeze blowing.  Finally feels like October!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: ChrisPC on October 11, 2018, 06:06:17 PM
42? Itís the answer to life, the universe, and everything.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 12, 2018, 06:52:17 AM
A wonderful 45 degrees this morning.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 12, 2018, 07:08:52 AM
Didn't make it to 42, but I'm happy with a marvelous 49 this morning. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on October 12, 2018, 07:25:49 AM
At the desk to start my work day with a big mug of hot English Breakfast tea and my dog curled up on her bed beside me to sleep until we get out in the glorious weather to take a long walk.  This is what October mornings should be.  ;D
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 12, 2018, 08:14:22 AM
I have a feeling we may see a fairly abrupt change of foliage in the next week or two with this cool weather + the shorter hours of daylight at this point. With the rainfall seen over the last month, the trees seem fairly lush and green, so I'm hoping we'll see some nice color this year.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Clay on October 12, 2018, 09:50:00 AM
41F IMBY. Fall is here to stay. Or at least I hope, my <90F prediction went down a week later.  >:D
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 12, 2018, 11:39:43 AM
I have a feeling we may see a fairly abrupt change of foliage in the next week or two with this cool weather + the shorter hours of daylight at this point. With the rainfall seen over the last month, the trees seem fairly lush and green, so I'm hoping we'll see some nice color this year.

Agree. I expect a vibrant turnout in East Tenn. For those looking for a weekend getaway, the Smokies will be gorgeous around Halloween.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 12, 2018, 12:31:09 PM
Sugar maples near my house are already showing a slight orange tint.  With the cool nights deep into the 40's, they'll be putting on a good show in a few weeks. This will be the first autumn in several years without dryness, so I would think the color would be better this year compared to previous, especially 2016.   
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Crockett on October 13, 2018, 12:33:43 AM
Sugar maples near my house are already showing a slight orange tint.  With the cool nights deep into the 40's, they'll be putting on a good show in a few weeks. This will be the first autumn in several years without dryness, so I would think the color would be better this year compared to previous, especially 2016.

I dunno. My maples have lost approximately 30%-50% of their leaves already...way ahead of schedule. No color; they just turned brown and dropped. I've already had to mulch leaves...something I have NEVER done this early. I've seen several huge, mature white oaks that are almost devoid of leaves entirely. Same thing; they just turned brown and dropped. I'm not sure if it's the heat or what that did it, but it'll be interesting to see how this transitions into the colors (or lack thereof) in the next couple 1-2 weeks.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Skillsweather on October 13, 2018, 01:20:31 AM
I dunno. My maples have lost approximately 30%-50% of their leaves already...way ahead of schedule. No color; they just turned brown and dropped. I've already had to mulch leaves...something I have NEVER done this early. I've seen several huge, mature white oaks that are almost devoid of leaves entirely. Same thing; they just turned brown and dropped. I'm not sure if it's the heat or what that did it, but it'll be interesting to see how this transitions into the colors (or lack thereof) in the next couple 1-2 weeks.
I think some trees react to the suns angle more then others possibly. Ive noticed lots of the same for the past few weeks way before any kind of cool down occurred.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JHart on October 13, 2018, 07:40:41 AM
Late season heat and humidity have a negative effect on fall color, at least in my experience.  I planted a grove of aspen trees about fifteen years ago in order to enjoy their brilliant yellow fall color.  However, while the trees have thrived, never once have they produced any color.  In late September their leaves simply mildew, wither, and blow away.  This environment is not necessarily that much hotter than their native climate, but it is much more humid.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on October 13, 2018, 08:40:23 AM
It's a strange scene in Knoxville this morning.  Beautiful cool temperatures, nice chilly breeze, some bright blue sky, but also some low, very dark clouds that just seem out of place.  Later in the year it would look like snow.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 13, 2018, 09:17:05 AM
[attachimg=1]

I got a picture of it

Post Merge: October 13, 2018, 10:22:48 AM
Similarly so, I've always felt the same about Denver. 80F one day, snow the next. 3000+ mean sunshine hours per month, 50" of annual snowfall. Some severe wx, but no humidity. Must be nice not being down wind from a massive tub of bath water.

Denver is a microcosm of the sheer power of American weather. If the Plains' unpredictable weather astonishes Tennesseans, I'll leave it to you to fathom how Germans perceive it. Typically, the climate on the Northern European Plain embodies a steady slope of temperatures; cool rains in the winter, with maybe some snow, which transcends into mild, overcast spring weather, and finally to a generally warm yet cloudy summer. Severe weather in the wintertime is almost impossible in Germany, but it's a realistic threat in Tennessee.

Northern Europe is subject to one, maybe two powerful Arctic blasts per winter from Eastern Europe, which is controlled by snowpack in Russia and the Slavic countries. Despite its position 15 degrees latitude north of Nashville, Hamburg's minimum annual temperature is normally not as cold as Nashville's minimum. Climate instability is a function of continentality. North America is a powder keg for crazy weather. In Europe, this is not the case anywhere. Certain regions are known for hosting a higher concentration of a specific type of severe event (e.g. drought in Italy, extreme heat in Southern France, flooding in the Rhine, tornadoes in Germany and Poland, blizzards in Russia). Nowhere in Europe will you find an equivalent to Oklahoma or Kansas. Again- continentality and latitude. You have no better place to witness every type of severe weather than the American Plains.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 13, 2018, 12:23:36 PM
It's a strange scene in Knoxville this morning.  Beautiful cool temperatures, nice chilly breeze, some bright blue sky, but also some low, very dark clouds that just seem out of place.  Later in the year it would look like snow.

Forecast for today is mostly sunny.  I saw a little sun this morning, but it has been a dark, cloudy day otherwise.  Don't mind it, though.  Good weather for building a fire in the firepit. 

Post Merge: October 13, 2018, 12:41:45 PM
I dunno. My maples have lost approximately 30%-50% of their leaves already...way ahead of schedule. No color; they just turned brown and dropped. I've already had to mulch leaves...something I have NEVER done this early. I've seen several huge, mature white oaks that are almost devoid of leaves entirely. Same thing; they just turned brown and dropped. I'm not sure if it's the heat or what that did it, but it'll be interesting to see how this transitions into the colors (or lack thereof) in the next couple 1-2 weeks.

Wow, that is strange.  My hickory trees are nearly leafless, but that's not abnormal for that species.  They leaf out very early, and are first to lose their leaves in fall.  But the white oaks here are still green, along with the sugar maples for the most part.  Red oaks are mostly green, too, with some brown patches appearing.  There are some sugar maples with numerous leaf spots--usually caused by fungal problems in wet summers. 

You've probably had a lot more rain than my area this summer, which is usually the case.  I wonder if you've just had too much, causing problems with fungal diseases? 

Quote
Leaf Spots
Leaf spots are the most common disease on tree foliage. Fungi or bacteria that cause leaf spots are spread by air or water and need moisture to grow. Leaf spots normally occur in late summer to early fall and do not cause much damage. Leaf spots that begin in early spring may cause premature dropping of foliage. Severely infected leaves may turn entirely yellow or brown and drop off prematurely.

Post Merge: October 13, 2018, 12:46:16 PM
Looks like clouds are clearing out from a strange direction...from east to west.  And almost like magic, I've gone from dark, cloudy weather to lots of blue sky showing. 

(http://i67.tinypic.com/xgfyg3.png)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on October 13, 2018, 04:16:18 PM
Been in Maine for a week hiking Acadia. You want fall color? Been accustomed to it now(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181013/93ebc5d779ce1dac594073067c3a76ec.jpg)
Title: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Drifter49 on October 13, 2018, 10:43:06 PM
Meanwhile in Wyoming tonight, I80 is closed between Cheyenne and Rawlins.


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Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 14, 2018, 10:14:20 AM
Meanwhile in Wyoming tonight, I80 is closed between Cheyenne and Rawlins.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Hopefully, that will be Tennessee come January when we have our epic snowstorm to end all snowstorms that closes I-40 from Memphis to Harford.   ;D


I'll have propane heat by then, so bring it!
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: mamMATTus on October 14, 2018, 10:55:42 AM
Definitely had to do a double-take just now...

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 14, 2018, 02:10:52 PM
Current pattern flip to cooler certainly has legs.  6-10 & 8-14 day outlooks are below normal for our area.   Monday looks to be the warmest of the next 7 days.  Much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley could experience their first frost Wednesday night, and a freeze looks very possible early next week. If it occurs, that would actually be early for our area, and within just 2 weeks of record heat earlier this month. 

Post Merge: October 14, 2018, 05:08:18 PM
Fall's golden colors appearing up north in Michigan.

http://www.snowmancam.com/ (http://www.snowmancam.com/)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 15, 2018, 12:25:44 PM
This is one of those if it was only January deals today. Has been pouring rain and temps falling quick.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 15, 2018, 12:30:05 PM
This is one of those if it was only January deals today. Has been pouring rain and temps falling quick.
yeah. Al we need now is a nice trowel tonset up just west of the ms river... lol
Title: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 15, 2018, 01:24:22 PM

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 15, 2018, 04:53:59 PM
MRX AFD:

Quote
Friday a surface low deepens
over Quebec with increasing moisture. Rain chances will gradually
increase during the day. Cold front moves into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. The rain will taper off during the afternoon
with colder air moving in overnight. Temperatures dont look to be
cold enough for snow in the higher elevations until after moisture
moves out. Early Monday widespread frost looks likely across
higher elevations and northeast lower elevations. Sunday and
Monday behind cold front highs only in the 50s to near 60 but much
colder higher elevations.

Many areas will see their first sub-freezing temperatures early next week.  High elevations will be downright cold.   
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 15, 2018, 05:08:35 PM
48 and rain is down right cold when it was 90 just a few days ago.  ::cold::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 15, 2018, 05:30:19 PM
48 and rain is down right cold when it was 90 just a few days ago.  ::cold::

Didn't realize the big contrast in temps across the state today.  It was near 80 over here with a good dose of humidity to go along with it. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Clay on October 15, 2018, 06:26:08 PM
(Attachment Link)
Highs in the 40s for San Antonio/Austin tomorrow. They're pushing 40F below normal in some areas of Central TX.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 15, 2018, 07:20:57 PM
Cooler air pushing its way back into eastern TN with heavy rain and some thunder this evening.  Already up to .64" of rain and it's still pouring. 

Post Merge: October 16, 2018, 06:54:18 AM
Parts of Michigan will probably see their first lake effect snow showers Wednesday and again late weekend.  Nothing heavy--a few inches of snow, but it's a sign that our pattern has changed and autumn is definitely taking over. 

On a different note, I had .80" of rain in just about an hour last night, along with several booms of thunder.  A stormy ending to a summer-like day.   
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: tnwthrwtchr on October 16, 2018, 02:14:51 PM
It felt a lot colder than it was today.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 16, 2018, 03:28:13 PM
Looks like todayís high will be 50 after a low of 41. Gloomy and sprinkling.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 16, 2018, 04:40:22 PM
Looks like todayís high will be 50 after a low of 41. Gloomy and sprinkling.

Is that about 20 degrees below average high temperature for Dyersburg?
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Curt on October 16, 2018, 04:43:44 PM
Is that about 20 degrees below average high temperature for Dyersburg?

Hereís the euro 2 temp anomalies this afternoon (sorry upper east TN- couldnít fit you on it). We havenít made it out the upper 40ís today with light rain.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181016/c523750528214278ee5a07dd20027c9a.png)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 17, 2018, 06:45:05 AM
Last nites 0z gfs. Has the seasons first snow flake for most of the state  by end month ... followed by a good hard freeze   ::cold::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 17, 2018, 07:19:19 AM
Crisp 39 degrees this morning. Going to be a beautiful day.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Thundersnow on October 17, 2018, 10:45:04 AM
Frost advisory across much of KY for tonight.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Skillsweather on October 17, 2018, 05:06:24 PM
Last nites 0z gfs. Has the seasons first snow flake for most of the state  by end month ... followed by a good hard freeze   ::cold::
did someone say snow? Count me in! :)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 18, 2018, 08:28:02 AM
Last nites 0z gfs. Has the seasons first snow flake for most of the state  by end month ... followed by a good hard freeze   ::cold::

Euro also shows a pretty deep trough digging into the eastern U.S.   Could be something scary brewing for Halloween.   ::wow::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 18, 2018, 08:36:46 AM
Euro also shows a pretty deep trough digging into the eastern U.S.   Could be something scary brewing for Halloween.   ::wow::
wow  first time i looked at it... agree
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: cgauxknox on October 18, 2018, 08:46:10 AM
Euro also shows a pretty deep trough digging into the eastern U.S.   Could be something scary brewing for Halloween.   ::wow::
Let the model watching commence!  ::coffee::
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 18, 2018, 09:08:00 AM
Let the model watching commence!  ::coffee::

 :D  I think after the previous two lackluster winters, most here are pumped for some winter mischief.   >:D
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 18, 2018, 02:10:01 PM
2017-18 was a pretty good winter for West Tennessee, but lackluster for everybody else. Middle and East TN are overdue.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: NashRugger on October 18, 2018, 03:28:32 PM
Yeah, as of now, all the models that are public, and some private ones I use for the Navy, are showing a big system, but trouble with timing anywhere from on the eastern seaboard on the 1st to the Plains on the 3rd of November.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 18, 2018, 06:57:27 PM
2017-18 was a pretty good winter for West Tennessee, but lackluster for everybody else. Middle and East TN are overdue.
Actually northwest middle cashed in good with 1 blockbuster week. Here in Montgomery County we got 2 snowfalls in that week that left about 11 inches. Our first snowfall did melt slightly before the 2nd snowfall hit but we had solid snowpack all week which reminded me of winter days gone by. First snowfall we got around 4.5 and the second we got about 6.5. The only problem is that was our only week of winter. But I will take 2 good to very good snows in a week over 3 or 4 smaller snows spread out that would have reached the same amount. Heres hoping the rest of middle and east tn fare better this year along with the rest of the state. Sure has been along time since we have had a good old fashioned southern slider. The one in 85 laid down a lot of snow for the entire state, we got 8 from that one here.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 18, 2018, 08:05:51 PM
New weather catch phrase being thrown around by the media these days.  Remember polar vortex?  Then it was "bomb cyclone."  Now it's "the blob."  ::rofl::

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/persistent-alaska-warmth-this-fall-has-brought-back-Ďthe-blobí-if-it-lasts-it-could-mean-a-wild-winter-in-the-lower-48/ar-BBOzm4C?ocid=spartanntp (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/persistent-alaska-warmth-this-fall-has-brought-back-Ďthe-blobí-if-it-lasts-it-could-mean-a-wild-winter-in-the-lower-48/ar-BBOzm4C?ocid=spartanntp)

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Skillsweather on October 18, 2018, 08:26:54 PM
the blob makes me think of ghost busters kind of lol
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 18, 2018, 09:17:53 PM
It's less provocative, so that's an improvement.

"Blob" is much less intimidating than "bomb cyclone" or "polar vortex."
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: Drifter49 on October 18, 2018, 10:25:06 PM
Iím ready for this!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 19, 2018, 02:34:09 AM
Models are converging upon accumulating snowfall in the higher elevations of West Virginia this weekend. Temperatures will be +/- 2 degrees Fahrenheit around freezing, so I would guess a 7:1 ratio of snow depth to rainfall is reasonable.

I think this is on schedule for the first West Virginia snowfall; it may be a little early. Snowshoe Mtn. recorded its first snowfall of the season last Saturday.

Also, you can see a bubble of below freezing temperatures in the 12km resolution NAM run for Knox County. I don't think we'll reach freezing this weekend, but we may get very close.

[attachimg=1]

[attachimg=2]

Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 19, 2018, 07:18:09 AM
Models are converging upon accumulating snowfall in the higher elevations of West Virginia this weekend. Temperatures will be +/- 2 degrees Fahrenheit around freezing, so I would guess a 7:1 ratio of snow depth to rainfall is reasonable.

I think this is on schedule for the first West Virginia snowfall; it may be a little early. Snowshoe Mtn. recorded its first snowfall of the season last Saturday.

West Virginia--almost heaven. . .

Country roads, take me home
To the place I belong. . .


Hope to live in a place that sees that much snow someday, but yet not in the frozen north. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: joemomma on October 19, 2018, 11:58:49 AM
Hoping for a good winter, this will be my first in a 4x4.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: StormNine on October 19, 2018, 06:22:49 PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowshoe%2C_West_Virginia

Snowshoe is probably one of the most interesting climates in the Upland South region.  Its topography and how it maximizes lift makes it the snowiest place in the Upland South and more snowier than a vast majority of the Eastern USA.

With the El-Nino this year I wouldn't be surprised to see Snowshoe beat out many of the Western USA ski resorts this winter. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 20, 2018, 06:14:13 AM
Growing season coming to an end this weekend for the Smoky Mts and all of western NC. Freeze warnings in place.  A good frost likely even in valley areas with lows barely above freezing.
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: BRUCE on October 20, 2018, 06:58:54 AM
Growing season coming to an end this weekend for the Smoky Mts and all of western NC. Freeze warnings in place.  A good frost likely even in valley areas with lows barely above freezing.
yeah, guess i better bring my special plant inside this weekend... o well, bout time for harvest anyways... ;)
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: WXHD on October 20, 2018, 07:38:10 AM
yeah, guess i better bring my special plant inside this weekend... o well, bout time for harvest anyways... ;)

Need help!? 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: JayCee on October 20, 2018, 10:58:15 AM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowshoe%2C_West_Virginia

Snowshoe is probably one of the most interesting climates in the Upland South region.  Its topography and how it maximizes lift makes it the snowiest place in the Upland South and more snowier than a vast majority of the Eastern USA.

With the El-Nino this year I wouldn't be surprised to see Snowshoe beat out many of the Western USA ski resorts this winter.


It's a good place for snow lovers who don't necessarily enjoy bitter cold for long periods like the Great Lakes, New England or upper mid-west experience. 
Title: Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
Post by: schneitzeit on October 20, 2018, 11:03:41 AM
Bruce

[attachimg=1]