Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Winter Weather => Topic started by: Curt on August 01, 2018, 10:09:56 AM

Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on August 01, 2018, 10:09:56 AM
Fire away since its August 1st. What we know very prelim?

1. ENSO: Most forecasts are for a central based weak El Nino. Subject to change to even neutral. Either would favor below normal temps

2. QBO: still highly negative east based. Will prob be trending upwards over the winter but still be negative. What you don't want is a highly positive QBO which isn't likely. This would at least help with normal or below normal temps.

3. Solar- we are nearing a minimum which usually can affect ENSO from warming into a highly positive territory. It could even throw a curve ball into Fall and send us back into Nina territory although modeling does now show this at this time. What you don't want is a strong La Nina OR strong El Nino- which neither are likely for now.

4. PDO- for now looks like a positive PDO which could favor ridging out west and consistent toughing east. we've seen this before (see analogs below).

Early analogs mostly based on ENSO? 2014-15, 76-77, 77-78, 78-79, 79-80. Will narrow these down later this Fall.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Skillsweather on August 01, 2018, 11:34:44 AM
Around here it seems to be more of a luck thing either it happens or it dont because something randomly happens. But it also makes it more special when we get them imo.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on August 01, 2018, 11:41:05 AM
Fire away since its August 1st. What we know very prelim?

1. ENSO: Most forecasts are for a central based weak El Nino. Subject to change to even neutral. Either would favor below normal temps

2. QBO: still highly negative east based. Will prob be trending upwards over the winter but still be negative. What you don't want is a highly positive QBO which isn't likely. This would at least help with normal or below normal temps.

3. Solar- we are nearing a minimum which usually can affect ENSO from warming into a highly positive territory. It could even throw a curve ball into Fall and send us back into Nina territory although modeling does now show this at this time. What you don't want is a highly negative ENSO or strong La Nina OR strong El Nino- which neither are likely for now.

4. PDO- for now looks like a positive PDO which could favor ridging out west and consistent toughing east. we've seen this before (see analogs below).

Early analogs mostly based on ENSO? 2014-15, 76-77, 77-78, 78-79, 79-80. Will narrow these down later this Fall.
doubt we see ever another 76 77.... 77 78 type winter ... those two winters pretty historic overall....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on August 01, 2018, 03:40:02 PM
I was born in 1997, so someone as young as me living in this state couldn't imagine how snowy those late 70s winters were.

Fingers crossed for a good winter. We deserve one, statewide. Been too long since the whole state was actively WSW or WWA under a single system. Last WSW for Knox Co. was Jan '17.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on August 01, 2018, 04:39:17 PM
I was born in 1997, so someone as young as me living in this state couldn't imagine how snowy those late 70s winters were.

Fingers crossed for a good winter. We deserve one, statewide. Been too long since the whole state was actively WSW or WWA under a single system. Last WSW for Knox Co. was Jan '17.
The winters of the 70's were great, 85 was right up there too. Hopefully we get some good snows this winter. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 01, 2018, 05:17:40 PM
I was born in 1997, so someone as young as me living in this state couldn't imagine how snowy those late 70s winters were.

Fingers crossed for a good winter. We deserve one, statewide. Been too long since the whole state was actively WSW or WWA under a single system. Last WSW for Knox Co. was Jan '17.


Born in 97?  You a youngin' alright.  You even missed the good winters of '94 & '96.  At least, they were pretty epic up in southeast KY where I lived at the time.  I'm not sure how TN fared those two years.  I always considered 1996 the last of the "great ones" in my personal list of epic winters.  After '96, most winters were torched to the nines with the exception of '03.  Snow was sparse and bitter Arctic air seemed non-existent.  There was only one memorable snow between 96 and 03 (for me), and it was February 98--a heavy, wet snow that mainly hit the Plateau and southeast KY. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on August 01, 2018, 07:47:35 PM
Winter is what you make of it. You cant please everyone. Statewide events are rare, I like my lamb medium. This year I will start a contest , who ever gets the first snowfall pictures in TN wins a date with Bruce.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on August 01, 2018, 09:13:37 PM
Winter is what you make of it. You cant please everyone. Statewide events are rare, I like my lamb medium. This year I will start a contest , who ever gets the first snowfall pictures in TN wins a date with Bruce.
lol... better be a woman than....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on August 01, 2018, 10:00:09 PM

Born in 97?  You a youngin' alright.  You even missed the good winters of '94 & '96.  At least, they were pretty epic up in southeast KY where I lived at the time.  I'm not sure how TN fared those two years.  I always considered 1996 the last of the "great ones" in my personal list of epic winters.  After '96, most winters were torched to the nines with the exception of '03.  Snow was sparse and bitter Arctic air seemed non-existent.  There was only one memorable snow between 96 and 03 (for me), and it was February 98--a heavy, wet snow that mainly hit the Plateau and southeast KY.

I'm the youngest person on the board, possibly by a long shot. I'll be around a while to observe significant climate change. Or maybe I will not notice anything too different. Time will tell.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on August 02, 2018, 09:54:09 PM
For most of TN the greats from 1950 and after are: 1950-51, 1959-60, 1962-63, 1963-64, 1967-68, the late 70's, 1984-85, 1995-96, 2002-03, and 2014-15.

2009-10 and 2010-11 can be considered greats in some areas.   

2010-11 was actually solidly cold and snowy from Thanksgiving to Valentine's Day before all severe weather heck was unleashed from late Feb through the Spring/Early Summer.     


Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 03, 2018, 07:56:04 AM
I consider the winter of 2009-10 the first "decent" winter after 02-03, and from that year on we had some decent to good ones in the area.  At the very least, there was a trend to colder after the long warm spell from 1996 to 2009.  While not every winter was cold from 09 to present day, we've fared far better than the previous 12 years when we couldn't buy an Arctic outbreak, save for 02-03.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on August 03, 2018, 09:47:21 AM
Congrats on becoming a mod, JayCee! I'll be sure to swear and make hostile political comments as much as possible to keep you hard at work

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on August 03, 2018, 11:19:25 AM
Congrats on becoming a mod, JayCee! I'll be sure to swear and make hostile political comments as much as possible to keep you hard at work
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 03, 2018, 05:28:44 PM
Congrats on becoming a mod, JayCee! I'll be sure to swear and make hostile political comments as much as possible to keep you hard at work
;D

If we have a winter like last one, I might be swearing with you.  Can a moderator moderate himself?    ::pondering::

Actually, I'm getting a bit pumped about this winter.  Curt mentioned many of the puzzle pieces in his post, and if they can come together at the right time (and that's the rub), we might have ourselves some fun times ahead.  Last winter, everything fell into place too late for this far south (cold April). But northern areas, like Michigan, got buried in spring snow.  January was cold, but as is sometimes the case, moisture was limited (except for west TN).

When it comes to winter weather in the mid-south and southern Apps, timing is everything. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 05, 2018, 08:04:26 AM
Chris Bailey from KY had some winter talk in today's post.

http://kyweathercenter.com/ (http://kyweathercenter.com/)

While he can be over the top and "sensational" in his forecasts, the one thing he can do pretty well is sniff out long term patterns.  Here's a quote from the current post. . .

Quote
I promised you guys a little winter talk, so lets do this. Iíve already shared some early thoughts over the past month or twoÖ I like the way the El NiŮo is forecast to setup. The placement in the central Nino region and the weak look to it, both argue for a winter trough across our region. That would be good news to cold and snow lovers.


He's obviously excited about the mean trough some models depict setting up shop in the eastern U.S., and lingering most of the winter.  At the very least, it would argue against any long stretch of well-above normal temperatures like we saw last February that killed our winter. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on August 05, 2018, 09:29:55 AM
Chris Bailey from KY had some winter talk in today's post.

http://kyweathercenter.com/ (http://kyweathercenter.com/)

While he can be over the top and "sensational" in his forecasts, the one thing he can do pretty well is sniff out long term patterns.  Here's a quote from the current post. . .


He's obviously excited about the mean trough some models depict setting up shop in the eastern U.S., and lingering most of the winter.  At the very least, it would argue against any long stretch of well-above normal temperatures like we saw last February that killed our winter.
yeah... and if s  and but s  were candy and nuts... everyday would be christmas too,,, ::)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JHart on August 05, 2018, 01:38:26 PM
yeah... and if s  and but s  were candy and nuts... everyday would be christmas too,,, ::)
Christmas in July just ended on QVC.  We got plenty of candy, nuts, and Christmas out here. ::guitar::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on August 09, 2018, 09:48:08 AM
Snowdog asking about where things might be headed into fall- Here is the latest Euro seasonals at 500mb:


October
(http://i68.tinypic.com/2nu0eox.png)
November
(http://i67.tinypic.com/28tf585.png)
December
(http://i68.tinypic.com/1hqu6h.png)
January
(http://i66.tinypic.com/2qb7mnk.png)
Feb
(http://i66.tinypic.com/o8rr04.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on August 09, 2018, 10:27:44 AM
Snowdog asking about where things might be headed into fall- Here is the latest Euro seasonals at 500mb:

Yeah, that looks nice. When did they start letting Bastardi input into the Euro seasonal model? Lol.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 09, 2018, 01:07:32 PM
Yeah, that looks nice. When did they start letting Bastardi input into the Euro seasonal model? Lol.

He'll have a field day with those, for sure. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on August 09, 2018, 01:51:07 PM
Here is what Weatherbell's Pioneer Model says:
(http://i64.tinypic.com/160a0ld.png)

Here is Bastardi's personal maps:
(http://i66.tinypic.com/2elcxg0.png)
(http://i64.tinypic.com/10xzu2s.png)

His Analogs:
(http://i64.tinypic.com/160d5rp.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 09, 2018, 02:17:06 PM
5F below normal for the winter months?  Wow.  That's pretty extreme.  And above normal snowfall centered right over the southeast U.S.  It's nice to dream about such things, anyway . . .
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on August 09, 2018, 02:22:47 PM
Regarding Bastardi's map...

a) How does a place that gets zero annual snow get 167% of their annual?  ::pondering::
b) Mundie moves to Huntsville and gets in the bullseye...this is bs.  ::rant::
c) It's August, and Clarksville and Dyer are already rooting for the NW trend.  ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 09, 2018, 04:25:53 PM
Ole Joe has had some pretty big busts over the last several years.  While he is good at deciphering the pattern based on teleconnection forecasts, sometimes they don't always behave as predicted--like last year when the MJO got stuck in the warm phases right in the heart of winter.  Joe's prediction of the cold coming back fast and furious last February was a major missed forecast, and it was based on the MJO moving into a colder phase.  It did eventually happen, but it was late March and April--too late to help recover our winter in Tennessee.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on August 09, 2018, 04:40:09 PM
Regarding Bastardi's map...

a) How does a place that gets zero annual snow get 167% of their annual?  ::pondering::

Answer: Tallahassee get 1.67 flakes instead of 1

b) Mundie moves to Huntsville and gets in the bullseye...this is bs.  ::rant::

Even though the Nashville snow dome has collapsed, Mundie will bring ďnewĒ luck to Bíham which had a record 8 year snow drought not that long ago.


c) It's August, and Clarksville and Dyer are already rooting for the NW trend.  ::bagoverhead::

I-44 FTW

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on August 10, 2018, 10:26:07 AM
Ole Joe has had some pretty big busts over the last several years.  While he is good at deciphering the pattern based on teleconnection forecasts, sometimes they don't always behave as predicted--like last year when the MJO got stuck in the warm phases right in the heart of winter.  Joe's prediction of the cold coming back fast and furious last February was a major missed forecast, and it was based on the MJO moving into a colder phase.  It did eventually happen, but it was late March and April--too late to help recover our winter in Tennessee.

I wonder if that was why a lot of 2006-07 (that is one of his analogs) didn't go as planned with the exception of that 3 week period at the end of January into February.  His other analogs worked like a charm for most if not all of us.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Crockett on August 10, 2018, 10:54:52 AM
All I know is the signs are pointing towards a SSW event that will unleash the polar vortex into the Lower 48...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on August 10, 2018, 12:18:58 PM
Do we ring a bell or something to signal an hour of free drinks for everybody the first time polar vortex makes it into the Winter thread?  ::applause::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Crockett on August 10, 2018, 01:42:42 PM
Do we ring a bell or something to signal an hour of free drinks for everybody the first time polar vortex makes it into the Winter thread?  ::applause::

Let's just not start a drinking game for every time it makes it into the thread or we'll all be soused.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on August 11, 2018, 08:32:42 PM
(http://i65.tinypic.com/2n0u91l.jpg)

Bingo is a safe alternative for those that want to play a game and keep their liver healthy. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on August 12, 2018, 11:51:54 AM
i know one thing... if i were located in the boston ... nyc... to dc area even perhaps to atlanta... i be getting very excited this winter... for what i gathering  and seeing... trough should set up pretty far to the east of us during winter months for the most... we will be mostly dealing with a nw flow pattern for the most of us mid southerners... which we may have to be pulling for a decent clipper type system to score for most us... ::doh::... time will tell... what i see thus far ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JHart on August 12, 2018, 03:00:46 PM
i know one thing... if i were located in the boston ... nyc... to dc area even perhaps to atlanta... i be getting very excited this winter... for what i gathering  and seeing... trough should set up pretty far to the east of us during winter months for the most... we will be mostly dealing with a nw flow pattern for the most of us mid southerners... which we may have to be pulling for a decent clipper type system to score for most us... ::doh::... time will tell... what i see thus far ....
What are your sources? 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Crockett on August 12, 2018, 03:08:07 PM
i know one thing... if i were located in the boston ... nyc... to dc area even perhaps to atlanta... i be getting very excited this winter... for what i gathering  and seeing... trough should set up pretty far to the east of us during winter months for the most... we will be mostly dealing with a nw flow pattern for the most of us mid southerners... which we may have to be pulling for a decent clipper type system to score for most us... ::doh::... time will tell... what i see thus far ....

It is waaaaaaaaaaaaay too early to be getting that specific.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on August 13, 2018, 07:40:35 AM
i know one thing... if i were located in the boston ... nyc... to dc area even perhaps to atlanta... i be getting very excited this winter... for what i gathering  and seeing... trough should set up pretty far to the east of us during winter months for the most... we will be mostly dealing with a nw flow pattern for the most of us mid southerners... which we may have to be pulling for a decent clipper type system to score for most us... ::doh::... time will tell... what i see thus far ....

Can I get next week's powerball numbers? 

WTF....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on August 13, 2018, 08:50:59 AM
Can I get next week's powerball numbers? 

WTF....
its getting into end August now.... winter signs are starting to fall in place ... slowly but surely .... if have had power ball winning numbers I sure as heck wouldnít be spending time here ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Skillsweather on August 13, 2018, 08:56:04 AM
Idk about this winter but winter 2025 wow.. Just wait.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on August 13, 2018, 09:55:31 AM
Idk about this winter but winter 2025 wow.. Just wait.
by 2025....  global warming will completely have its grip on us ... winter be season in the past .... :D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Matthew on August 13, 2018, 03:02:41 PM
Dang
Winter canceled already?
Thank goodness spring severe season is going to be a blockbuster!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on August 13, 2018, 03:39:38 PM
I look at winter in Tennessee as being a bit like hurricane season; a calm season with one big storm is remembered as a busy season while a season with lots of small stuff but no big hitters is easily forgotten.  From what others have been posting it looks like we'll at least have some cold, which has been missing in most recent winters, so half the equation is set up.  Beyond that it's the usual roll of the dice for whether or not the cold, the wet, and the track all come together to put good snow on the ground, especially here in the valley.  Besides, before then I'm hoping for a great fall with good color on the trees, crisp air, and SEC football.
...and just to keep our new moderators on their toes @*%#$#!! politics %%*@%*!( Washington D.C @#%%*)) taxes @%#*&!## your party @#*%(@@! my party   ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on August 13, 2018, 03:43:54 PM
The only predictable thing is that the Vols will suck, and the Titans will suck.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on August 13, 2018, 04:40:12 PM
The only predictable thing is that the Vols will suck, and the Titans will suck.
True and true.  It's a shame Knox County's new mayor doesn't have any eligibility left; we could use him playing line on Saturdays.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 13, 2018, 05:11:54 PM
The only predictable thing is that the Vols will suck, and the Titans will suck.


No worries.  It means you'll have all the time you need to geek out over each and every model run.     ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on August 19, 2018, 01:45:46 AM
Regarding Bastardi's map...

a) How does a place that gets zero annual snow get 167% of their annual?  ::pondering::
b) Mundie moves to Huntsville and gets in the bullseye...this is bs.  ::rant::
c) It's August, and Clarksville and Dyer are already rooting for the NW trend.  ::bagoverhead::
Imma rooting for it to lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 19, 2018, 08:24:02 AM
Imma rooting for it to lol


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We donít have to root for it. We just wait for it.  >:D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on August 19, 2018, 03:02:29 PM
I had a dream of a 6 inch sleet fest


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on August 19, 2018, 08:00:19 PM
**** if they are going to predict so am I... After all I nailed it last year  ::evillaugh::

Jan 4th will be the first majority of the state event. Sleet Fest 2019!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on August 21, 2018, 07:52:11 PM
I predict four "cliff diving" emojis will be typed on January 15th, 2019 after a major league bust. You heard it here first.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on August 22, 2018, 10:41:36 PM
I predict four "cliff diving" emojis will be typed on January 15th, 2019 after a major league bust. You heard it here first.

Seems legit to me.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on August 24, 2018, 01:05:57 PM
The big one will eventually happen.  Let hope this winter is it!  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on August 24, 2018, 01:28:37 PM
Snow in Tennessee is nothing like sex.

Anyone is impressed by four inches. >:D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on August 24, 2018, 01:29:54 PM
Snow in Tennessee is nothing like sex.

Anyone is impressed by four inches. >:D

No comment. I will save that for chat lol


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on August 25, 2018, 06:20:22 PM
The SNOWMAN says get ready for  ::cold:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::!!!! ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: Fear the NW Trend!!!! LOL!!!!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on August 25, 2018, 06:23:41 PM
The SNOWMAN says get ready for  ::cold:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::!!!! ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: Fear the NW Trend!!!! LOL!!!!

Iím ready, but things wonít be complete until Mr Wonderful is on board


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on September 21, 2018, 11:06:09 AM
A few more pieces of the puzzle for winter...

- ENSO: Weak El Nino or neutral positive with warmest water in the central pacific vs eastern which is called Modoki

- PDO: most likely going to be positive

-QBO: negative and from the east but weakening in late winter. Leads to a more blocky pattern

-Solar: reaching min over the next year if not now

All of these argue for some if not more than not below normal temps and increased winter precip chances at some point.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on September 22, 2018, 06:36:05 AM
and I've not been accidently walking through webs every morning, which is usually the case each fall.  ::pondering::

Come to Gallatin. I almost run into one on the daily. I think the spiders do it on purpose for the kicks and giggles.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on September 22, 2018, 06:38:59 AM
Growing up, I heard my grandmother mention several times that the higher the spiders build their webs, the worse the winter will be.  Like most folklore, I don't know if there's anything to that, but I'm seeing spiders build their webs higher than I've ever seen them before.  They are hanging 20-30 feet off the ground between huge trees.  It's pretty creepy looking up to see a huge spider suspended against the blue sky above.  Makes the woods around the house feel like a movie set for a Halloween horror flick.  Anyway, I've never observed that since moving here, and I've not been accidently walking through webs every morning, which is usually the case each fall.   

(Whoops...accidently deleted while trying to add a post).   ::coffee::


Post Merge: September 22, 2018, 06:41:44 AM
Pulled this from Chris Bailey's site. . .Early October looks cool.

http://kyweathercenter.com/?attachment_id=31364 (http://kyweathercenter.com/?attachment_id=31364)

Post Merge: September 22, 2018, 06:44:11 AM
Come to Gallatin. I almost run into one on the daily. I think the spiders do it on purpose for the kicks and giggles.


It's the worse--because you don't know if the spider is crawling on your body somewhere. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on September 22, 2018, 09:10:01 AM
Growing up, I heard my grandmother mention several times that the higher the spiders build their webs, the worse the winter will be.  Like most folklore, I don't know if there's anything to that, but I'm seeing spiders build their webs higher than I've ever seen them before.  They are hanging 20-30 feet off the ground between huge trees.  It's pretty creepy looking up to see a huge spider suspended against the blue sky above.  Makes the woods around the house feel like a movie set for a Halloween horror flick.  Anyway, I've never observed that since moving here, and I've not been accidently walking through webs every morning, which is usually the case each fall.   

(Whoops...accidently deleted while trying to add a post).   ::coffee::


Post Merge: September 22, 2018, 06:41:44 AM
Pulled this from Chris Bailey's site. . .Early October looks cool.

http://kyweathercenter.com/?attachment_id=31364 (http://kyweathercenter.com/?attachment_id=31364)

Post Merge: September 22, 2018, 06:44:11 AM

It's the worse--because you don't know if the spider is crawling on your body somewhere.
proably building them higher to prepare for the floods thatís coming later ... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on September 22, 2018, 02:31:05 PM
proably building them higher to prepare for the floods thatís coming later ... lol

Could be....or the snowdrifts.   ::evillaugh::

(https://asd.gsfc.nasa.gov/archive/tiger/images/eric_drift.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on September 22, 2018, 03:37:44 PM
Models agree on first U.S. winter storm of the season to hit MT, ND, & MN on Oct. 1.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on September 22, 2018, 03:44:18 PM
Models agree on first U.S. winter storm of the season to hit MT, ND, & MN on Oct. 1.

Winter Storm A-Aron
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on September 22, 2018, 04:56:43 PM
It is probably too early but I won't have a lot of free time in Oct-early December so I will go ahead and post my thoughts and way too early prediction for the winter now.

The major factors will be:

- Weak to Moderate West-Based aka Modoki El-Nino.  I am thinking similar in the strength to 2006-07 but unlike 2006-07 this will likely be a Central Pacific type of El-Nino.  These tend to be better for us in the Eastern USA.

+ PDO which tends to lead to riding in the Western USA

The QBO trend that Curt described

- An active subtropical jet which we have seen already.  San Antonio now has their wettest September on record.   

The pattern we will start to head into in the coming weeks is likely a sign of what is to come for much of the winter.  There will be relaxation periods just like we had in 2009-10 and 2014-15 but I have reason to believe we are in for a very solid winter for the Southern and Northeastern USA. 

Color Map:
Orange: Above Normal +1 to +3 temperature departure
Red: Much Above Normal Greater than +3

Blue: Below Normal -1 to -3 temperature departure
Dark Blue: Much Below Greater than -3


(http://i63.tinypic.com/igkvi1.png)

I will go with climatology and say that late-November and December will be a relaxation between a colder than normal October-early November and what follows.  As long as we avoid a strongly +NAO or +AO then I will think that our area will finish close to average temperature wise and may find a way to at least sneak in a winter event.

Chattanogga: +1.0
Memphis: +0.8
Nashville: +1.0
Tri-Cities: +1.5 

 (http://i67.tinypic.com/345ip8k.png)

I think here is where the +PDO and favorable Pacific conditions will overall lead to paydirt. With potential blocking in the Northwest and SE Canada and into Greenland that will allow for winter air to pour into our area and linger starting in January. The teardrop shape is due to the potential for the ridges to intrude at times in the Northern Plains.  An active subtropical jet should also help temperatures down quite a bit in the southern USA by way of precipitation and cloudcover.

Chattanogga: -3.1
Memphis: -3.0
Nashville: -2.5
Tri-Cities: -2.5

(http://i67.tinypic.com/16k9w5l.png)

Another day and another cold February prediction.  I thankfully didn't predict a cold one on 2017, but the 2018 and 2016 calls were major busts.  Our last two Modoki El-Nino's (2010 and 2015) were solidly below average in the temperature category.  As long as the Pacific cooperates we may not even need a -NAO/AO as a strong +PNA may help in assuming a Warm to Hot West and Cold East pattern.  Will this one bust or will this one verify as 2010 and 2015 did?  We will have to wait and see.  I do think there is a strong potential for at least a Top 10 Warmest February on record in the Pacific Northwest. 

Chattanogga: -5.0
Memphis: -3.5
Nashville: -4.0
Tri-Cities: -4.5

Precipitation:

(http://i68.tinypic.com/2pr7o86.png)

Typically in weaker El-Nino events the subtropcial jet is suppressed a bit further south.  With the potential of some potent cold air masses I will agree with that decision and go with a drier than normal winter for our area.  Remember that if much of our precip is snow we will likely up drier than normal as 1 inch of snow comes to only 0.10 of an inch of rain and it could be as low as 15:1 or even 20:1 in really cold airmasses. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on September 22, 2018, 05:43:33 PM
StormNine, thanks for posting your thoughts for this upcoming Winter... but I'm curious, you have Memphis at +3.0 for January temps. Would that be a typo?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on September 22, 2018, 07:40:57 PM
StormNine, thanks for posting your thoughts for this upcoming Winter... but I'm curious, you have Memphis at +3.0 for January temps. Would that be a typo?

It should be a -3.0 and not a +. Those little typos get me all the time. 

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on September 25, 2018, 08:42:44 PM
The Sun set at the North Pole yesterday, and won't rise again until spring.  Twilight will continue to deepen into the long, dark night of winter. 

http://www.athropolis.com/sun-fr.htm (http://www.athropolis.com/sun-fr.htm)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on October 14, 2018, 01:08:30 PM
Getting nearer to more accurate forecasting tools for winter

Euro seasonal mean of 51 members for December to February

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181014/dab2b3fad0ced903cf6dc48dae1ee0d2.jpg)

JMA for same period
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181014/09cd4df83179dc02ebb72763835714a1.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 14, 2018, 01:48:09 PM
Getting nearer to more accurate forecasting tools for winter

Euro seasonal mean of 51 members for December to February

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181014/dab2b3fad0ced903cf6dc48dae1ee0d2.jpg)

JMA for same period
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181014/09cd4df83179dc02ebb72763835714a1.jpg)

Lookin' good in our neighborhood. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 14, 2018, 01:49:29 PM
Getting nearer to more accurate forecasting tools for winter

Euro seasonal mean of 51 members for December to February

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181014/dab2b3fad0ced903cf6dc48dae1ee0d2.jpg)

JMA for same period
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181014/09cd4df83179dc02ebb72763835714a1.jpg)
and with much of canada showing above normal temps...perhaps that will keep out pattern from being supressed  ... which is a good thing...could be lot ice this winter for our area ::doh::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on October 14, 2018, 02:43:55 PM
and with much of canada showing above normal temps...perhaps that will keep out pattern from being supressed  ... which is a good thing...could be lot ice this winter for our area ::doh::

Actually thatís the pattern at 500mb not temps.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on October 14, 2018, 08:00:42 PM
One thing to stress about forecasts that may be seen is that if we have a solidly colder than normal winter than we will have a greater than normal chance for below average precipitation.  Remember that snow on average has only 1/10th the water content as rain, so if a good deal of our winter precipitation falls as snow than we will likely be below average precipitation-wise (see 1963-64 and 2009-10). 

I want to say that because a lot of people see below average precipitation and temperatures and assume suppression city. 

Post Merge: October 14, 2018, 08:14:20 PM
One thing I have noticed from the long-range models is that they aren't showing much of a warm-up in November-December and typically that timeframe leans warmer than average for the Southeastern USA in El-Nino years.  That will be an interesting thing to watch over the coming weeks.  It is quite rare to go below average in all three winter months especially post 2000.  With that in mind and this current cool-cold wave for this time of year it would make sense to have a period of warmth during that time.  The good thing is if we have our warm period in November-Early December then we potentially time our next cold shot for the Holidays and into the heart of the winter.   

We shall see.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 14, 2018, 08:40:47 PM
One thing to stress about forecasts that may be seen is that if we have a solidly colder than normal winter than we will have a greater than normal chance for below average precipitation.  Remember that snow on average has only 1/10th the water content as rain, so if a good deal of our winter precipitation falls as snow than we will likely be below average precipitation-wise (see 1963-64 and 2009-10). 

I want to say that because a lot of people see below average precipitation and temperatures and assume suppression city. 

Post Merge: October 14, 2018, 08:14:20 PM
One thing I have noticed from the long-range models is that they aren't showing much of a warm-up in November-December and typically that timeframe leans warmer than average for the Southeastern USA in El-Nino years.  That will be an interesting thing to watch over the coming weeks.  It is quite rare to go below average in all three winter months especially post 2000.  With that in mind and this current cool-cold wave for this time of year it would make sense to have a period of warmth during that time.  The good thing is if we have our warm period in November-Early December then we potentially time our next cold shot for the Holidays and into the heart of the winter.   

We shall see.
yeah but also ... El NiŮoís favor a active southern storm track... we shall see
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on October 14, 2018, 09:00:31 PM
At least in Chattanooga, presence of gulf moisture has a much stronger positive correlation with above average snowfall than cold temperatures. We've had a lot of good winters with marginally cold (or even above normal) temps when systems are able to tap the gulf. If we get cut off from the gulf (suppression) we get nada (see last winter). It is basically impossible for clippers or NW flow snow to fall here due to topography. Feels like we are overdue. I haven't seen more than a half inch on the ground here since 2015.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on October 14, 2018, 10:46:26 PM
Knoxville can get lucky with those clippers during colder than normal winters. Chattanooga doesn't have the advantage that NE TN and the Plateau has with those weak clippers. I think that's another reason why Chattanooga didn't cash in on anything last year. The main culprit for the paltry amount of snowfall in Chattanooga was a very strong trough which sent everything south early on, followed by an abrupt pattern change in which it would either be rainy and 50-60 or sunny and 35, with any sort of activity during cold weeks going north.

We can still strike those blockbuster storms during warm years. 2015-2016 was warm as crap (though most of that was due to the epically warm El NiŮo-induced December torchfest) but Middle TN cashed in on Jonas.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 15, 2018, 07:51:44 AM
This is the current 8-14 day outlook.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/167a80l.gif)

I only post this pic because the upcoming winter may look a lot like this.  Tennessee could be in the transition zone between wet and dry.  Timing is everything in this pattern, and many times before a dry northwest flow sets up, a strong storm system will ride up from the Gulf into the northeast.  That's when we tend to get our significant snows--in a pattern transition to a deep Eastern trough.  Once the deep trough is in place, we're dependent on clippers tapping enough of the Gulf to drop a few inches here and there.  The plateau and mountains do well in a northwest flow, but the lower elevations need a decent disturbance to generate enough lift to get more than a dusting--especially areas like Chattanooga.

Anyway, let's hope Tennessee is in a sweet spot this year--the battle zone between a cold, dry north and a milder, but wet, Deep South.  Everything points to a better winter than the last two, but we know how that goes sometimes. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 15, 2018, 08:17:39 AM
We use to have some decent clippers years ago west tn... but they seem to be less and less each passing winter .... not to big on clippers ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on October 15, 2018, 08:51:07 AM
Getting nearer to more accurate forecasting tools for winter

Euro seasonal mean of 51 members for December to February

That's it, I'm going on Amazon right now and buying a new sled.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 15, 2018, 09:02:22 AM
That's it, I'm going on Amazon right now and buying a new sled.  ::snowman::
just jinxed it ... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on October 15, 2018, 09:18:00 AM
just jinxed it ... lol

There are no jinx's for this winter, it's in the bag. It will be in the Top 15 for total snowfall.

Disclaimer: I know nothing and this is mostly sarcasm.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 15, 2018, 09:22:13 AM
There are no jinx's for this winter, it's in the bag. It will be in the Top 15 for total snowfall.

Disclaimer: I know nothing and this is mostly sarcasm.
i take just half of what 84 85 gave me ... I be happy
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on October 15, 2018, 09:30:24 AM
There are no jinx's for this winter, it's in the bag. It will be in the Top 15 for total snowfall.

Disclaimer: I know nothing and this is mostly sarcasm.

It's so bad, we mock winter with our deliberate and obvious jinx attempts. By telling winter it will produce, obviously knowing we're jinxing it, winter will call our bluff and we'll get slammed, purely out of spite. We'll get dumped on this winter.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on October 15, 2018, 10:46:09 AM
Personally Iím preparing for a lot of 33* cold rains. Also, letís keep this in mind...we are long overdue for a major ice event. Iím thinking this is the year for that.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Crockett on October 15, 2018, 11:10:08 AM
and with much of canada showing above normal temps...perhaps that will keep out pattern from being supressed  ... which is a good thing...could be lot ice this winter for our area ::doh::

Bruce, with all due respect, when was the last winter you didn't predict a lot of ice for our area?  ;D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on October 15, 2018, 11:23:15 AM
I'm prepared for some of you to reminisce in the Great Winter of 1984-85 and make comparisons to it by saying "x" weather event in October is how January 1985's pattern all got started... 

::lookaround::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 15, 2018, 11:27:29 AM
Bruce, with all due respect, when was the last winter you didn't predict a lot of ice for our area?  ;D
been while think actually Crockett .... just thinking weíre going see more times than not.  The deeper article air struggle to come further down... we are certainly over due for a humdinger of a ice storm

Post Merge: October 15, 2018, 12:07:45 PM
I'm prepared for some of you to reminisce in the Great Winter of 1984-85 and make comparisons to it by saying "x" weather event in October is how January 1985's pattern all got started... 

::lookaround::
the very start of it was a complete torch. With temps breaking records that still hold for December ...than a big system came newyears eve nite  brought severe weather ... 4 days later 10 inches snow ... pattern locked in
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on October 15, 2018, 12:51:42 PM
Bruce, with all due respect, when was the last winter you didn't predict a lot of ice for our area?  ;D

Like I always say- shoot in the dark and youíre bound to hit something eventually
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on October 15, 2018, 12:56:00 PM
I'm prepared for some of you to reminisce in the Great Winter of 1984-85 and make comparisons to it by saying "x" weather event in October is how January 1985's pattern all got started... 

::lookaround::

84-85 was an awesome winter even for the Mississippi Delta when I lived there.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on October 15, 2018, 12:57:25 PM
Like I always say- shoot in the dark and youíre bound to hit something eventually

A broken clock has better odds lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 15, 2018, 01:08:46 PM
84-85 is the benchmark for winter weather for our area for those old enough to have experienced that winter.  If it wasn't for 84-85, we might think last year was a good winter.  So, it's a blessing and a curse.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on October 15, 2018, 01:15:04 PM
84-85 was a weak to mod LaNina so itís not an analog.

Ukmet looks cold and stormy for this winter from its release today. American models CFS is a blowtorch.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 15, 2018, 01:16:38 PM
84-85 was a weak to mod LaNina so itís not an analog.

Ukmet looks cold and stormy for this winter from its release today. American models CFS is a blowtorch.
yeah. Nina. Knew. But itís one my favorite winters ....  so it sets the bar for me on a great winter here...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 15, 2018, 01:23:32 PM
84-85 was a weak to mod LaNina so itís not an analog.

Ukmet looks cold and stormy for this winter from its release today. American models CFS is a blowtorch.

At least it's only the American models calling for a torch.  I may be a red-blooded American, but I'll pull for the UK on this one.  Or the Euro, or the Japanese.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on October 15, 2018, 03:09:00 PM
Personally Iím preparing for a lot of 33* cold rains. Also, letís keep this in mind...we are long overdue for a major ice event. Iím thinking this is the year for that.

33 and rain? Heck, try 27 and rain. I'll never get over that storm. 27 degrees and pouring rain for what felt like hours.  ::sick::

Post Merge: October 15, 2018, 03:11:05 PM
It's so bad, we mock winter with our deliberate and obvious jinx attempts. By telling winter it will produce, obviously knowing we're jinxing it, winter will call our bluff and we'll get slammed, purely out of spite. We'll get dumped on this winter.

The Old Man Winter will do what he wants, we have no say in it, so we might as well have a little fun with it.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 15, 2018, 11:56:14 PM
76-77,77-78 and 84-85 were awesome here. I don't know which was worse. We missed the entire month of school in Jan 77 and snow covered the ground from the 4th of Jan until the first of Feb. The roads were also covered as big time cold and another snow every 4-5 days the entire month was like clockwork. We had anywhere from 5-10 inches of snow on the ground virtually the entire month. 77-78 was more spread out but we had several big snows and missed a bunch of days. Including 2 different snows that put us out a week at a time plus at least 2 more snows where we missed a couple of days each time. 84-85 I was out of school, I was about 20 years old and the end of jan and feb were brutal. We recorded snow and brutal cold the month of feb. One 8 inch snowfall followed by extreme cold and more snow. I think Jan 77 and Feb 85 was the most epic I have seen, hard to say which was worse. I would take anything similar and do cartwheels. That 1 week last year reminded me of that time it just didn't last near as long nor have the number of snows. But at least we had 2 decent snows in a weeks time that stayed on the ground for about 7 days. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 16, 2018, 12:39:20 PM
Siberia may not be getting a lot of snow, but North America is. . .

http://www.msn.com/en-us/video/tunedin/snow-is-covering-more-of-north-america-than-usual-for-october/vi-BBOqcRM?ocid=ientp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/video/tunedin/snow-is-covering-more-of-north-america-than-usual-for-october/vi-BBOqcRM?ocid=ientp)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on October 16, 2018, 06:24:45 PM
In Southern KY the most epic winters were the late 70s, 84-85, 2010-11, and 2014-15. 

2014-15 was very close to being epic in much of TN and it was in the Tiptonville/Union City area into Kentucky.  It isn't that common to see two major winter storms producing 1 foot or more of snow in one winter, plus that February and Early March was quite cold.  Some areas along US 62 in Kentucky recorded over 40 inches of snow during the winter of 2014-15. 

That 6-week span of 1984-85 would of be awesome to live in.  I was born just a few years late.  That was some of the most intense cold/snow looking back at the records that a winter can offer. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on October 16, 2018, 08:01:25 PM
I can imagine myself sitting in a reclining chair in 2074 and telling my grandkids how much it used to snow during the magnificent winters of the 2000s and 2010s.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 16, 2018, 08:42:41 PM
I can imagine myself sitting in a reclining chair in 2074 and telling my grandkids how much it used to snow during the magnificent winters of the 2000s and 2010s.  ::rofl::
by the year 2074... i will be a old man.... lets  not rush time  ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 17, 2018, 06:51:39 AM
In Southern KY the most epic winters were the late 70s, 84-85, 2010-11, and 2014-15. 

2014-15 was very close to being epic in much of TN and it was in the Tiptonville/Union City area into Kentucky.  It isn't that common to see two major winter storms producing 1 foot or more of snow in one winter, plus that February and Early March was quite cold.  Some areas along US 62 in Kentucky recorded over 40 inches of snow during the winter of 2014-15. 

That 6-week span of 1984-85 would of be awesome to live in.  I was born just a few years late.  That was some of the most intense cold/snow looking back at the records that a winter can offer.

In southeast KY the winters of 1993-94 & 95-96 were somewhat similar to 84-85.  Perhaps Mt. Pinatubo had an influence on the bitter cold winter of 93-94.  London Ky. recorded their all-time record low up to that point (I believe it was -26).  A snow of epic proportions in January buried the central and eastern parts with 12-24" of snow, and Interstate 75 was closed from Covington to the Tennessee border.  The Arctic outbreak that followed kept the snow on the ground for weeks.  1995-96 was also a winter with plenty of snow, sometimes on the ground for nearly a week at a time when another snowfall would add even more accumulation.  I remember piles of snow in parking lots lasting weeks because warm spells were infrequent, and snow kept falling.  After 95-96, winters were blowtorch city until 02-03, when we had a marginally cold winter, but snowfall wasn't excessive.  From that point on, we had to wait until '09-'10 to see a winter that even had a decent stretch of below normal temperatures.

At least that's how I remember it, as I sit in my rocking chair reminiscing with my Red Bull.  (That's how we Gen X'ers chill out).
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 17, 2018, 07:17:46 AM
In Southern KY the most epic winters were the late 70s, 84-85, 2010-11, and 2014-15. 

2014-15 was very close to being epic in much of TN and it was in the Tiptonville/Union City area into Kentucky.  It isn't that common to see two major winter storms producing 1 foot or more of snow in one winter, plus that February and Early March was quite cold.  Some areas along US 62 in Kentucky recorded over 40 inches of snow during the winter of 2014-15. 

That 6-week span of 1984-85 would of be awesome to live in.  I was born just a few years late.  That was some of the most intense cold/snow looking back at the records that a winter can offer.
dont forget bout the big December 2004 Snow storm... people were stranded in cars along major hwys.... that was the system that brought me. Close to 5 inches of pure sleet... hardest I ever seen sleet fall with brisk winds to boot ... sting your face....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on October 17, 2018, 02:37:12 PM
by the year 2074... i will be a old man.... lets  not rush time  ;)

I'll be 94, so the weather will probably be happening about 6 feet above me.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 17, 2018, 03:34:56 PM
I'll be 94, so the weather will probably be happening about 6 feet above me.
try 112 for me lol....
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on October 17, 2018, 03:56:13 PM
by the year 2074... i will be a old man.... lets  not rush time 

Iím sure we will be kinda dead lol. I would be 108. If I was lucky enough to make it that long, I would be drooling in my soup.
Wait sometimes I do that now


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on October 17, 2018, 04:12:07 PM
Iím sure we will be kinda dead lol. I would be 108. If I was lucky enough to make it that long, I would be drooling in my soup.
Wait sometimes I do that now


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You young'uns beat all... I'll be 111.  LOL
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 18, 2018, 08:42:46 AM
Snow cover continues to run above normal in Canada, and LR models show it deepening further, especially central/eastern areas.  Can't be a bad thing for winter weather weenies.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on October 18, 2018, 09:23:44 PM
Snow here is nothing but luck. I thought we were past this..... Cold Winter, Warm Winter, Dry Winter, Wet Winter, it all averages out about the same. Forecast 3-4 days out not 3-4 months :) Climatology wins
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 19, 2018, 07:25:57 AM
Snow here is nothing but luck. I thought we were past this..... Cold Winter, Warm Winter, Dry Winter, Wet Winter, it all averages out about the same. Forecast 3-4 days out not 3-4 months :) Climatology wins

At least we have a better chance of seeing snow than winning either jackpot from Mega Millions or Powerball.   ::snow:: 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 19, 2018, 07:51:11 AM
At least we have a better chance of seeing snow than winning either jackpot from Mega Millions or Powerball.   ::snow::
yeah, and the climate change dont stop or slow down...odds of winning the owerball will become better... :D