Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Winter Weather => Topic started by: Curt on August 01, 2018, 10:09:56 AM

Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on August 01, 2018, 10:09:56 AM
Fire away since its August 1st. What we know very prelim?

1. ENSO: Most forecasts are for a central based weak El Nino. Subject to change to even neutral. Either would favor below normal temps

2. QBO: still highly negative east based. Will prob be trending upwards over the winter but still be negative. What you don't want is a highly positive QBO which isn't likely. This would at least help with normal or below normal temps.

3. Solar- we are nearing a minimum which usually can affect ENSO from warming into a highly positive territory. It could even throw a curve ball into Fall and send us back into Nina territory although modeling does now show this at this time. What you don't want is a strong La Nina OR strong El Nino- which neither are likely for now.

4. PDO- for now looks like a positive PDO which could favor ridging out west and consistent toughing east. we've seen this before (see analogs below).

Early analogs mostly based on ENSO? 2014-15, 76-77, 77-78, 78-79, 79-80. Will narrow these down later this Fall.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Skillsweather on August 01, 2018, 11:34:44 AM
Around here it seems to be more of a luck thing either it happens or it dont because something randomly happens. But it also makes it more special when we get them imo.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on August 01, 2018, 11:41:05 AM
Fire away since its August 1st. What we know very prelim?

1. ENSO: Most forecasts are for a central based weak El Nino. Subject to change to even neutral. Either would favor below normal temps

2. QBO: still highly negative east based. Will prob be trending upwards over the winter but still be negative. What you don't want is a highly positive QBO which isn't likely. This would at least help with normal or below normal temps.

3. Solar- we are nearing a minimum which usually can affect ENSO from warming into a highly positive territory. It could even throw a curve ball into Fall and send us back into Nina territory although modeling does now show this at this time. What you don't want is a highly negative ENSO or strong La Nina OR strong El Nino- which neither are likely for now.

4. PDO- for now looks like a positive PDO which could favor ridging out west and consistent toughing east. we've seen this before (see analogs below).

Early analogs mostly based on ENSO? 2014-15, 76-77, 77-78, 78-79, 79-80. Will narrow these down later this Fall.
doubt we see ever another 76 77.... 77 78 type winter ... those two winters pretty historic overall....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on August 01, 2018, 03:40:02 PM
I was born in 1997, so someone as young as me living in this state couldn't imagine how snowy those late 70s winters were.

Fingers crossed for a good winter. We deserve one, statewide. Been too long since the whole state was actively WSW or WWA under a single system. Last WSW for Knox Co. was Jan '17.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on August 01, 2018, 04:39:17 PM
I was born in 1997, so someone as young as me living in this state couldn't imagine how snowy those late 70s winters were.

Fingers crossed for a good winter. We deserve one, statewide. Been too long since the whole state was actively WSW or WWA under a single system. Last WSW for Knox Co. was Jan '17.
The winters of the 70's were great, 85 was right up there too. Hopefully we get some good snows this winter. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 01, 2018, 05:17:40 PM
I was born in 1997, so someone as young as me living in this state couldn't imagine how snowy those late 70s winters were.

Fingers crossed for a good winter. We deserve one, statewide. Been too long since the whole state was actively WSW or WWA under a single system. Last WSW for Knox Co. was Jan '17.


Born in 97?  You a youngin' alright.  You even missed the good winters of '94 & '96.  At least, they were pretty epic up in southeast KY where I lived at the time.  I'm not sure how TN fared those two years.  I always considered 1996 the last of the "great ones" in my personal list of epic winters.  After '96, most winters were torched to the nines with the exception of '03.  Snow was sparse and bitter Arctic air seemed non-existent.  There was only one memorable snow between 96 and 03 (for me), and it was February 98--a heavy, wet snow that mainly hit the Plateau and southeast KY. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on August 01, 2018, 07:47:35 PM
Winter is what you make of it. You cant please everyone. Statewide events are rare, I like my lamb medium. This year I will start a contest , who ever gets the first snowfall pictures in TN wins a date with Bruce.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on August 01, 2018, 09:13:37 PM
Winter is what you make of it. You cant please everyone. Statewide events are rare, I like my lamb medium. This year I will start a contest , who ever gets the first snowfall pictures in TN wins a date with Bruce.
lol... better be a woman than....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on August 01, 2018, 10:00:09 PM

Born in 97?  You a youngin' alright.  You even missed the good winters of '94 & '96.  At least, they were pretty epic up in southeast KY where I lived at the time.  I'm not sure how TN fared those two years.  I always considered 1996 the last of the "great ones" in my personal list of epic winters.  After '96, most winters were torched to the nines with the exception of '03.  Snow was sparse and bitter Arctic air seemed non-existent.  There was only one memorable snow between 96 and 03 (for me), and it was February 98--a heavy, wet snow that mainly hit the Plateau and southeast KY.

I'm the youngest person on the board, possibly by a long shot. I'll be around a while to observe significant climate change. Or maybe I will not notice anything too different. Time will tell.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on August 02, 2018, 09:54:09 PM
For most of TN the greats from 1950 and after are: 1950-51, 1959-60, 1962-63, 1963-64, 1967-68, the late 70's, 1984-85, 1995-96, 2002-03, and 2014-15.

2009-10 and 2010-11 can be considered greats in some areas.   

2010-11 was actually solidly cold and snowy from Thanksgiving to Valentine's Day before all severe weather heck was unleashed from late Feb through the Spring/Early Summer.     


Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 03, 2018, 07:56:04 AM
I consider the winter of 2009-10 the first "decent" winter after 02-03, and from that year on we had some decent to good ones in the area.  At the very least, there was a trend to colder after the long warm spell from 1996 to 2009.  While not every winter was cold from 09 to present day, we've fared far better than the previous 12 years when we couldn't buy an Arctic outbreak, save for 02-03.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on August 03, 2018, 09:47:21 AM
Congrats on becoming a mod, JayCee! I'll be sure to swear and make hostile political comments as much as possible to keep you hard at work

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on August 03, 2018, 11:19:25 AM
Congrats on becoming a mod, JayCee! I'll be sure to swear and make hostile political comments as much as possible to keep you hard at work
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 03, 2018, 05:28:44 PM
Congrats on becoming a mod, JayCee! I'll be sure to swear and make hostile political comments as much as possible to keep you hard at work
;D

If we have a winter like last one, I might be swearing with you.  Can a moderator moderate himself?    ::pondering::

Actually, I'm getting a bit pumped about this winter.  Curt mentioned many of the puzzle pieces in his post, and if they can come together at the right time (and that's the rub), we might have ourselves some fun times ahead.  Last winter, everything fell into place too late for this far south (cold April). But northern areas, like Michigan, got buried in spring snow.  January was cold, but as is sometimes the case, moisture was limited (except for west TN).

When it comes to winter weather in the mid-south and southern Apps, timing is everything. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 05, 2018, 08:04:26 AM
Chris Bailey from KY had some winter talk in today's post.

http://kyweathercenter.com/ (http://kyweathercenter.com/)

While he can be over the top and "sensational" in his forecasts, the one thing he can do pretty well is sniff out long term patterns.  Here's a quote from the current post. . .

Quote
I promised you guys a little winter talk, so lets do this. I’ve already shared some early thoughts over the past month or two… I like the way the El Nińo is forecast to setup. The placement in the central Nino region and the weak look to it, both argue for a winter trough across our region. That would be good news to cold and snow lovers.


He's obviously excited about the mean trough some models depict setting up shop in the eastern U.S., and lingering most of the winter.  At the very least, it would argue against any long stretch of well-above normal temperatures like we saw last February that killed our winter. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on August 05, 2018, 09:29:55 AM
Chris Bailey from KY had some winter talk in today's post.

http://kyweathercenter.com/ (http://kyweathercenter.com/)

While he can be over the top and "sensational" in his forecasts, the one thing he can do pretty well is sniff out long term patterns.  Here's a quote from the current post. . .


He's obviously excited about the mean trough some models depict setting up shop in the eastern U.S., and lingering most of the winter.  At the very least, it would argue against any long stretch of well-above normal temperatures like we saw last February that killed our winter.
yeah... and if s  and but s  were candy and nuts... everyday would be christmas too,,, ::)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JHart on August 05, 2018, 01:38:26 PM
yeah... and if s  and but s  were candy and nuts... everyday would be christmas too,,, ::)
Christmas in July just ended on QVC.  We got plenty of candy, nuts, and Christmas out here. ::guitar::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on August 09, 2018, 09:48:08 AM
Snowdog asking about where things might be headed into fall- Here is the latest Euro seasonals at 500mb:


October
(http://i68.tinypic.com/2nu0eox.png)
November
(http://i67.tinypic.com/28tf585.png)
December
(http://i68.tinypic.com/1hqu6h.png)
January
(http://i66.tinypic.com/2qb7mnk.png)
Feb
(http://i66.tinypic.com/o8rr04.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on August 09, 2018, 10:27:44 AM
Snowdog asking about where things might be headed into fall- Here is the latest Euro seasonals at 500mb:

Yeah, that looks nice. When did they start letting Bastardi input into the Euro seasonal model? Lol.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 09, 2018, 01:07:32 PM
Yeah, that looks nice. When did they start letting Bastardi input into the Euro seasonal model? Lol.

He'll have a field day with those, for sure. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on August 09, 2018, 01:51:07 PM
Here is what Weatherbell's Pioneer Model says:
(http://i64.tinypic.com/160a0ld.png)

Here is Bastardi's personal maps:
(http://i66.tinypic.com/2elcxg0.png)
(http://i64.tinypic.com/10xzu2s.png)

His Analogs:
(http://i64.tinypic.com/160d5rp.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 09, 2018, 02:17:06 PM
5F below normal for the winter months?  Wow.  That's pretty extreme.  And above normal snowfall centered right over the southeast U.S.  It's nice to dream about such things, anyway . . .
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on August 09, 2018, 02:22:47 PM
Regarding Bastardi's map...

a) How does a place that gets zero annual snow get 167% of their annual?  ::pondering::
b) Mundie moves to Huntsville and gets in the bullseye...this is bs.  ::rant::
c) It's August, and Clarksville and Dyer are already rooting for the NW trend.  ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 09, 2018, 04:25:53 PM
Ole Joe has had some pretty big busts over the last several years.  While he is good at deciphering the pattern based on teleconnection forecasts, sometimes they don't always behave as predicted--like last year when the MJO got stuck in the warm phases right in the heart of winter.  Joe's prediction of the cold coming back fast and furious last February was a major missed forecast, and it was based on the MJO moving into a colder phase.  It did eventually happen, but it was late March and April--too late to help recover our winter in Tennessee.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on August 09, 2018, 04:40:09 PM
Regarding Bastardi's map...

a) How does a place that gets zero annual snow get 167% of their annual?  ::pondering::

Answer: Tallahassee get 1.67 flakes instead of 1

b) Mundie moves to Huntsville and gets in the bullseye...this is bs.  ::rant::

Even though the Nashville snow dome has collapsed, Mundie will bring “new” luck to B’ham which had a record 8 year snow drought not that long ago.


c) It's August, and Clarksville and Dyer are already rooting for the NW trend.  ::bagoverhead::

I-44 FTW

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on August 10, 2018, 10:26:07 AM
Ole Joe has had some pretty big busts over the last several years.  While he is good at deciphering the pattern based on teleconnection forecasts, sometimes they don't always behave as predicted--like last year when the MJO got stuck in the warm phases right in the heart of winter.  Joe's prediction of the cold coming back fast and furious last February was a major missed forecast, and it was based on the MJO moving into a colder phase.  It did eventually happen, but it was late March and April--too late to help recover our winter in Tennessee.

I wonder if that was why a lot of 2006-07 (that is one of his analogs) didn't go as planned with the exception of that 3 week period at the end of January into February.  His other analogs worked like a charm for most if not all of us.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Crockett on August 10, 2018, 10:54:52 AM
All I know is the signs are pointing towards a SSW event that will unleash the polar vortex into the Lower 48...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on August 10, 2018, 12:18:58 PM
Do we ring a bell or something to signal an hour of free drinks for everybody the first time polar vortex makes it into the Winter thread?  ::applause::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Crockett on August 10, 2018, 01:42:42 PM
Do we ring a bell or something to signal an hour of free drinks for everybody the first time polar vortex makes it into the Winter thread?  ::applause::

Let's just not start a drinking game for every time it makes it into the thread or we'll all be soused.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on August 11, 2018, 08:32:42 PM
(http://i65.tinypic.com/2n0u91l.jpg)

Bingo is a safe alternative for those that want to play a game and keep their liver healthy. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on August 12, 2018, 11:51:54 AM
i know one thing... if i were located in the boston ... nyc... to dc area even perhaps to atlanta... i be getting very excited this winter... for what i gathering  and seeing... trough should set up pretty far to the east of us during winter months for the most... we will be mostly dealing with a nw flow pattern for the most of us mid southerners... which we may have to be pulling for a decent clipper type system to score for most us... ::doh::... time will tell... what i see thus far ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JHart on August 12, 2018, 03:00:46 PM
i know one thing... if i were located in the boston ... nyc... to dc area even perhaps to atlanta... i be getting very excited this winter... for what i gathering  and seeing... trough should set up pretty far to the east of us during winter months for the most... we will be mostly dealing with a nw flow pattern for the most of us mid southerners... which we may have to be pulling for a decent clipper type system to score for most us... ::doh::... time will tell... what i see thus far ....
What are your sources? 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Crockett on August 12, 2018, 03:08:07 PM
i know one thing... if i were located in the boston ... nyc... to dc area even perhaps to atlanta... i be getting very excited this winter... for what i gathering  and seeing... trough should set up pretty far to the east of us during winter months for the most... we will be mostly dealing with a nw flow pattern for the most of us mid southerners... which we may have to be pulling for a decent clipper type system to score for most us... ::doh::... time will tell... what i see thus far ....

It is waaaaaaaaaaaaay too early to be getting that specific.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on August 13, 2018, 07:40:35 AM
i know one thing... if i were located in the boston ... nyc... to dc area even perhaps to atlanta... i be getting very excited this winter... for what i gathering  and seeing... trough should set up pretty far to the east of us during winter months for the most... we will be mostly dealing with a nw flow pattern for the most of us mid southerners... which we may have to be pulling for a decent clipper type system to score for most us... ::doh::... time will tell... what i see thus far ....

Can I get next week's powerball numbers? 

WTF....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on August 13, 2018, 08:50:59 AM
Can I get next week's powerball numbers? 

WTF....
its getting into end August now.... winter signs are starting to fall in place ... slowly but surely .... if have had power ball winning numbers I sure as heck wouldn’t be spending time here ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Skillsweather on August 13, 2018, 08:56:04 AM
Idk about this winter but winter 2025 wow.. Just wait.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on August 13, 2018, 09:55:31 AM
Idk about this winter but winter 2025 wow.. Just wait.
by 2025....  global warming will completely have its grip on us ... winter be season in the past .... :D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Matthew on August 13, 2018, 03:02:41 PM
Dang
Winter canceled already?
Thank goodness spring severe season is going to be a blockbuster!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on August 13, 2018, 03:39:38 PM
I look at winter in Tennessee as being a bit like hurricane season; a calm season with one big storm is remembered as a busy season while a season with lots of small stuff but no big hitters is easily forgotten.  From what others have been posting it looks like we'll at least have some cold, which has been missing in most recent winters, so half the equation is set up.  Beyond that it's the usual roll of the dice for whether or not the cold, the wet, and the track all come together to put good snow on the ground, especially here in the valley.  Besides, before then I'm hoping for a great fall with good color on the trees, crisp air, and SEC football.
...and just to keep our new moderators on their toes @*%#$#!! politics %%*@%*!( Washington D.C @#%%*)) taxes @%#*&!## your party @#*%(@@! my party   ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on August 13, 2018, 03:43:54 PM
The only predictable thing is that the Vols will suck, and the Titans will suck.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on August 13, 2018, 04:40:12 PM
The only predictable thing is that the Vols will suck, and the Titans will suck.
True and true.  It's a shame Knox County's new mayor doesn't have any eligibility left; we could use him playing line on Saturdays.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 13, 2018, 05:11:54 PM
The only predictable thing is that the Vols will suck, and the Titans will suck.


No worries.  It means you'll have all the time you need to geek out over each and every model run.     ;)