Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Winter Weather => Topic started by: Curt on August 01, 2018, 10:09:56 AM

Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on August 01, 2018, 10:09:56 AM
Fire away since its August 1st. What we know very prelim?

1. ENSO: Most forecasts are for a central based weak El Nino. Subject to change to even neutral. Either would favor below normal temps

2. QBO: still highly negative east based. Will prob be trending upwards over the winter but still be negative. What you don't want is a highly positive QBO which isn't likely. This would at least help with normal or below normal temps.

3. Solar- we are nearing a minimum which usually can affect ENSO from warming into a highly positive territory. It could even throw a curve ball into Fall and send us back into Nina territory although modeling does now show this at this time. What you don't want is a strong La Nina OR strong El Nino- which neither are likely for now.

4. PDO- for now looks like a positive PDO which could favor ridging out west and consistent toughing east. we've seen this before (see analogs below).

Early analogs mostly based on ENSO? 2014-15, 76-77, 77-78, 78-79, 79-80. Will narrow these down later this Fall.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Skillsweather on August 01, 2018, 11:34:44 AM
Around here it seems to be more of a luck thing either it happens or it dont because something randomly happens. But it also makes it more special when we get them imo.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on August 01, 2018, 11:41:05 AM
Fire away since its August 1st. What we know very prelim?

1. ENSO: Most forecasts are for a central based weak El Nino. Subject to change to even neutral. Either would favor below normal temps

2. QBO: still highly negative east based. Will prob be trending upwards over the winter but still be negative. What you don't want is a highly positive QBO which isn't likely. This would at least help with normal or below normal temps.

3. Solar- we are nearing a minimum which usually can affect ENSO from warming into a highly positive territory. It could even throw a curve ball into Fall and send us back into Nina territory although modeling does now show this at this time. What you don't want is a highly negative ENSO or strong La Nina OR strong El Nino- which neither are likely for now.

4. PDO- for now looks like a positive PDO which could favor ridging out west and consistent toughing east. we've seen this before (see analogs below).

Early analogs mostly based on ENSO? 2014-15, 76-77, 77-78, 78-79, 79-80. Will narrow these down later this Fall.
doubt we see ever another 76 77.... 77 78 type winter ... those two winters pretty historic overall....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on August 01, 2018, 03:40:02 PM
I was born in 1997, so someone as young as me living in this state couldn't imagine how snowy those late 70s winters were.

Fingers crossed for a good winter. We deserve one, statewide. Been too long since the whole state was actively WSW or WWA under a single system. Last WSW for Knox Co. was Jan '17.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on August 01, 2018, 04:39:17 PM
I was born in 1997, so someone as young as me living in this state couldn't imagine how snowy those late 70s winters were.

Fingers crossed for a good winter. We deserve one, statewide. Been too long since the whole state was actively WSW or WWA under a single system. Last WSW for Knox Co. was Jan '17.
The winters of the 70's were great, 85 was right up there too. Hopefully we get some good snows this winter. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 01, 2018, 05:17:40 PM
I was born in 1997, so someone as young as me living in this state couldn't imagine how snowy those late 70s winters were.

Fingers crossed for a good winter. We deserve one, statewide. Been too long since the whole state was actively WSW or WWA under a single system. Last WSW for Knox Co. was Jan '17.


Born in 97?  You a youngin' alright.  You even missed the good winters of '94 & '96.  At least, they were pretty epic up in southeast KY where I lived at the time.  I'm not sure how TN fared those two years.  I always considered 1996 the last of the "great ones" in my personal list of epic winters.  After '96, most winters were torched to the nines with the exception of '03.  Snow was sparse and bitter Arctic air seemed non-existent.  There was only one memorable snow between 96 and 03 (for me), and it was February 98--a heavy, wet snow that mainly hit the Plateau and southeast KY. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on August 01, 2018, 07:47:35 PM
Winter is what you make of it. You cant please everyone. Statewide events are rare, I like my lamb medium. This year I will start a contest , who ever gets the first snowfall pictures in TN wins a date with Bruce.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on August 01, 2018, 09:13:37 PM
Winter is what you make of it. You cant please everyone. Statewide events are rare, I like my lamb medium. This year I will start a contest , who ever gets the first snowfall pictures in TN wins a date with Bruce.
lol... better be a woman than....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on August 01, 2018, 10:00:09 PM

Born in 97?  You a youngin' alright.  You even missed the good winters of '94 & '96.  At least, they were pretty epic up in southeast KY where I lived at the time.  I'm not sure how TN fared those two years.  I always considered 1996 the last of the "great ones" in my personal list of epic winters.  After '96, most winters were torched to the nines with the exception of '03.  Snow was sparse and bitter Arctic air seemed non-existent.  There was only one memorable snow between 96 and 03 (for me), and it was February 98--a heavy, wet snow that mainly hit the Plateau and southeast KY.

I'm the youngest person on the board, possibly by a long shot. I'll be around a while to observe significant climate change. Or maybe I will not notice anything too different. Time will tell.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on August 02, 2018, 09:54:09 PM
For most of TN the greats from 1950 and after are: 1950-51, 1959-60, 1962-63, 1963-64, 1967-68, the late 70's, 1984-85, 1995-96, 2002-03, and 2014-15.

2009-10 and 2010-11 can be considered greats in some areas.   

2010-11 was actually solidly cold and snowy from Thanksgiving to Valentine's Day before all severe weather heck was unleashed from late Feb through the Spring/Early Summer.     


Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 03, 2018, 07:56:04 AM
I consider the winter of 2009-10 the first "decent" winter after 02-03, and from that year on we had some decent to good ones in the area.  At the very least, there was a trend to colder after the long warm spell from 1996 to 2009.  While not every winter was cold from 09 to present day, we've fared far better than the previous 12 years when we couldn't buy an Arctic outbreak, save for 02-03.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on August 03, 2018, 09:47:21 AM
Congrats on becoming a mod, JayCee! I'll be sure to swear and make hostile political comments as much as possible to keep you hard at work

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on August 03, 2018, 11:19:25 AM
Congrats on becoming a mod, JayCee! I'll be sure to swear and make hostile political comments as much as possible to keep you hard at work
[attachimg=1]

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 03, 2018, 05:28:44 PM
Congrats on becoming a mod, JayCee! I'll be sure to swear and make hostile political comments as much as possible to keep you hard at work
;D

If we have a winter like last one, I might be swearing with you.  Can a moderator moderate himself?    ::pondering::

Actually, I'm getting a bit pumped about this winter.  Curt mentioned many of the puzzle pieces in his post, and if they can come together at the right time (and that's the rub), we might have ourselves some fun times ahead.  Last winter, everything fell into place too late for this far south (cold April). But northern areas, like Michigan, got buried in spring snow.  January was cold, but as is sometimes the case, moisture was limited (except for west TN).

When it comes to winter weather in the mid-south and southern Apps, timing is everything. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 05, 2018, 08:04:26 AM
Chris Bailey from KY had some winter talk in today's post.

http://kyweathercenter.com/ (http://kyweathercenter.com/)

While he can be over the top and "sensational" in his forecasts, the one thing he can do pretty well is sniff out long term patterns.  Here's a quote from the current post. . .

Quote
I promised you guys a little winter talk, so lets do this. Iíve already shared some early thoughts over the past month or twoÖ I like the way the El NiŮo is forecast to setup. The placement in the central Nino region and the weak look to it, both argue for a winter trough across our region. That would be good news to cold and snow lovers.


He's obviously excited about the mean trough some models depict setting up shop in the eastern U.S., and lingering most of the winter.  At the very least, it would argue against any long stretch of well-above normal temperatures like we saw last February that killed our winter. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on August 05, 2018, 09:29:55 AM
Chris Bailey from KY had some winter talk in today's post.

http://kyweathercenter.com/ (http://kyweathercenter.com/)

While he can be over the top and "sensational" in his forecasts, the one thing he can do pretty well is sniff out long term patterns.  Here's a quote from the current post. . .


He's obviously excited about the mean trough some models depict setting up shop in the eastern U.S., and lingering most of the winter.  At the very least, it would argue against any long stretch of well-above normal temperatures like we saw last February that killed our winter.
yeah... and if s  and but s  were candy and nuts... everyday would be christmas too,,, ::)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JHart on August 05, 2018, 01:38:26 PM
yeah... and if s  and but s  were candy and nuts... everyday would be christmas too,,, ::)
Christmas in July just ended on QVC.  We got plenty of candy, nuts, and Christmas out here. ::guitar::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on August 09, 2018, 09:48:08 AM
Snowdog asking about where things might be headed into fall- Here is the latest Euro seasonals at 500mb:


October
(http://i68.tinypic.com/2nu0eox.png)
November
(http://i67.tinypic.com/28tf585.png)
December
(http://i68.tinypic.com/1hqu6h.png)
January
(http://i66.tinypic.com/2qb7mnk.png)
Feb
(http://i66.tinypic.com/o8rr04.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on August 09, 2018, 10:27:44 AM
Snowdog asking about where things might be headed into fall- Here is the latest Euro seasonals at 500mb:

Yeah, that looks nice. When did they start letting Bastardi input into the Euro seasonal model? Lol.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 09, 2018, 01:07:32 PM
Yeah, that looks nice. When did they start letting Bastardi input into the Euro seasonal model? Lol.

He'll have a field day with those, for sure. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on August 09, 2018, 01:51:07 PM
Here is what Weatherbell's Pioneer Model says:
(http://i64.tinypic.com/160a0ld.png)

Here is Bastardi's personal maps:
(http://i66.tinypic.com/2elcxg0.png)
(http://i64.tinypic.com/10xzu2s.png)

His Analogs:
(http://i64.tinypic.com/160d5rp.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 09, 2018, 02:17:06 PM
5F below normal for the winter months?  Wow.  That's pretty extreme.  And above normal snowfall centered right over the southeast U.S.  It's nice to dream about such things, anyway . . .
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on August 09, 2018, 02:22:47 PM
Regarding Bastardi's map...

a) How does a place that gets zero annual snow get 167% of their annual?  ::pondering::
b) Mundie moves to Huntsville and gets in the bullseye...this is bs.  ::rant::
c) It's August, and Clarksville and Dyer are already rooting for the NW trend.  ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 09, 2018, 04:25:53 PM
Ole Joe has had some pretty big busts over the last several years.  While he is good at deciphering the pattern based on teleconnection forecasts, sometimes they don't always behave as predicted--like last year when the MJO got stuck in the warm phases right in the heart of winter.  Joe's prediction of the cold coming back fast and furious last February was a major missed forecast, and it was based on the MJO moving into a colder phase.  It did eventually happen, but it was late March and April--too late to help recover our winter in Tennessee.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on August 09, 2018, 04:40:09 PM
Regarding Bastardi's map...

a) How does a place that gets zero annual snow get 167% of their annual?  ::pondering::

Answer: Tallahassee get 1.67 flakes instead of 1

b) Mundie moves to Huntsville and gets in the bullseye...this is bs.  ::rant::

Even though the Nashville snow dome has collapsed, Mundie will bring ďnewĒ luck to Bíham which had a record 8 year snow drought not that long ago.


c) It's August, and Clarksville and Dyer are already rooting for the NW trend.  ::bagoverhead::

I-44 FTW

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on August 10, 2018, 10:26:07 AM
Ole Joe has had some pretty big busts over the last several years.  While he is good at deciphering the pattern based on teleconnection forecasts, sometimes they don't always behave as predicted--like last year when the MJO got stuck in the warm phases right in the heart of winter.  Joe's prediction of the cold coming back fast and furious last February was a major missed forecast, and it was based on the MJO moving into a colder phase.  It did eventually happen, but it was late March and April--too late to help recover our winter in Tennessee.

I wonder if that was why a lot of 2006-07 (that is one of his analogs) didn't go as planned with the exception of that 3 week period at the end of January into February.  His other analogs worked like a charm for most if not all of us.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Crockett on August 10, 2018, 10:54:52 AM
All I know is the signs are pointing towards a SSW event that will unleash the polar vortex into the Lower 48...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on August 10, 2018, 12:18:58 PM
Do we ring a bell or something to signal an hour of free drinks for everybody the first time polar vortex makes it into the Winter thread?  ::applause::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Crockett on August 10, 2018, 01:42:42 PM
Do we ring a bell or something to signal an hour of free drinks for everybody the first time polar vortex makes it into the Winter thread?  ::applause::

Let's just not start a drinking game for every time it makes it into the thread or we'll all be soused.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on August 11, 2018, 08:32:42 PM
(http://i65.tinypic.com/2n0u91l.jpg)

Bingo is a safe alternative for those that want to play a game and keep their liver healthy. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on August 12, 2018, 11:51:54 AM
i know one thing... if i were located in the boston ... nyc... to dc area even perhaps to atlanta... i be getting very excited this winter... for what i gathering  and seeing... trough should set up pretty far to the east of us during winter months for the most... we will be mostly dealing with a nw flow pattern for the most of us mid southerners... which we may have to be pulling for a decent clipper type system to score for most us... ::doh::... time will tell... what i see thus far ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JHart on August 12, 2018, 03:00:46 PM
i know one thing... if i were located in the boston ... nyc... to dc area even perhaps to atlanta... i be getting very excited this winter... for what i gathering  and seeing... trough should set up pretty far to the east of us during winter months for the most... we will be mostly dealing with a nw flow pattern for the most of us mid southerners... which we may have to be pulling for a decent clipper type system to score for most us... ::doh::... time will tell... what i see thus far ....
What are your sources? 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Crockett on August 12, 2018, 03:08:07 PM
i know one thing... if i were located in the boston ... nyc... to dc area even perhaps to atlanta... i be getting very excited this winter... for what i gathering  and seeing... trough should set up pretty far to the east of us during winter months for the most... we will be mostly dealing with a nw flow pattern for the most of us mid southerners... which we may have to be pulling for a decent clipper type system to score for most us... ::doh::... time will tell... what i see thus far ....

It is waaaaaaaaaaaaay too early to be getting that specific.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on August 13, 2018, 07:40:35 AM
i know one thing... if i were located in the boston ... nyc... to dc area even perhaps to atlanta... i be getting very excited this winter... for what i gathering  and seeing... trough should set up pretty far to the east of us during winter months for the most... we will be mostly dealing with a nw flow pattern for the most of us mid southerners... which we may have to be pulling for a decent clipper type system to score for most us... ::doh::... time will tell... what i see thus far ....

Can I get next week's powerball numbers? 

WTF....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on August 13, 2018, 08:50:59 AM
Can I get next week's powerball numbers? 

WTF....
its getting into end August now.... winter signs are starting to fall in place ... slowly but surely .... if have had power ball winning numbers I sure as heck wouldnít be spending time here ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Skillsweather on August 13, 2018, 08:56:04 AM
Idk about this winter but winter 2025 wow.. Just wait.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on August 13, 2018, 09:55:31 AM
Idk about this winter but winter 2025 wow.. Just wait.
by 2025....  global warming will completely have its grip on us ... winter be season in the past .... :D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Matthew on August 13, 2018, 03:02:41 PM
Dang
Winter canceled already?
Thank goodness spring severe season is going to be a blockbuster!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on August 13, 2018, 03:39:38 PM
I look at winter in Tennessee as being a bit like hurricane season; a calm season with one big storm is remembered as a busy season while a season with lots of small stuff but no big hitters is easily forgotten.  From what others have been posting it looks like we'll at least have some cold, which has been missing in most recent winters, so half the equation is set up.  Beyond that it's the usual roll of the dice for whether or not the cold, the wet, and the track all come together to put good snow on the ground, especially here in the valley.  Besides, before then I'm hoping for a great fall with good color on the trees, crisp air, and SEC football.
...and just to keep our new moderators on their toes @*%#$#!! politics %%*@%*!( Washington D.C @#%%*)) taxes @%#*&!## your party @#*%(@@! my party   ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on August 13, 2018, 03:43:54 PM
The only predictable thing is that the Vols will suck, and the Titans will suck.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on August 13, 2018, 04:40:12 PM
The only predictable thing is that the Vols will suck, and the Titans will suck.
True and true.  It's a shame Knox County's new mayor doesn't have any eligibility left; we could use him playing line on Saturdays.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on August 13, 2018, 05:11:54 PM
The only predictable thing is that the Vols will suck, and the Titans will suck.


No worries.  It means you'll have all the time you need to geek out over each and every model run.     ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on August 19, 2018, 01:45:46 AM
Regarding Bastardi's map...

a) How does a place that gets zero annual snow get 167% of their annual?  ::pondering::
b) Mundie moves to Huntsville and gets in the bullseye...this is bs.  ::rant::
c) It's August, and Clarksville and Dyer are already rooting for the NW trend.  ::bagoverhead::
Imma rooting for it to lol


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 19, 2018, 08:24:02 AM
Imma rooting for it to lol


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We donít have to root for it. We just wait for it.  >:D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on August 19, 2018, 03:02:29 PM
I had a dream of a 6 inch sleet fest


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on August 19, 2018, 08:00:19 PM
**** if they are going to predict so am I... After all I nailed it last year  ::evillaugh::

Jan 4th will be the first majority of the state event. Sleet Fest 2019!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on August 21, 2018, 07:52:11 PM
I predict four "cliff diving" emojis will be typed on January 15th, 2019 after a major league bust. You heard it here first.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on August 22, 2018, 10:41:36 PM
I predict four "cliff diving" emojis will be typed on January 15th, 2019 after a major league bust. You heard it here first.

Seems legit to me.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on August 24, 2018, 01:05:57 PM
The big one will eventually happen.  Let hope this winter is it!  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on August 24, 2018, 01:28:37 PM
Snow in Tennessee is nothing like sex.

Anyone is impressed by four inches. >:D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on August 24, 2018, 01:29:54 PM
Snow in Tennessee is nothing like sex.

Anyone is impressed by four inches. >:D

No comment. I will save that for chat lol


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on August 25, 2018, 06:20:22 PM
The SNOWMAN says get ready for  ::cold:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::!!!! ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: Fear the NW Trend!!!! LOL!!!!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on August 25, 2018, 06:23:41 PM
The SNOWMAN says get ready for  ::cold:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::!!!! ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: Fear the NW Trend!!!! LOL!!!!

Iím ready, but things wonít be complete until Mr Wonderful is on board


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on September 21, 2018, 11:06:09 AM
A few more pieces of the puzzle for winter...

- ENSO: Weak El Nino or neutral positive with warmest water in the central pacific vs eastern which is called Modoki

- PDO: most likely going to be positive

-QBO: negative and from the east but weakening in late winter. Leads to a more blocky pattern

-Solar: reaching min over the next year if not now

All of these argue for some if not more than not below normal temps and increased winter precip chances at some point.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on September 22, 2018, 06:36:05 AM
and I've not been accidently walking through webs every morning, which is usually the case each fall.  ::pondering::

Come to Gallatin. I almost run into one on the daily. I think the spiders do it on purpose for the kicks and giggles.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on September 22, 2018, 06:38:59 AM
Growing up, I heard my grandmother mention several times that the higher the spiders build their webs, the worse the winter will be.  Like most folklore, I don't know if there's anything to that, but I'm seeing spiders build their webs higher than I've ever seen them before.  They are hanging 20-30 feet off the ground between huge trees.  It's pretty creepy looking up to see a huge spider suspended against the blue sky above.  Makes the woods around the house feel like a movie set for a Halloween horror flick.  Anyway, I've never observed that since moving here, and I've not been accidently walking through webs every morning, which is usually the case each fall.   

(Whoops...accidently deleted while trying to add a post).   ::coffee::


Post Merge: September 22, 2018, 06:41:44 AM
Pulled this from Chris Bailey's site. . .Early October looks cool.

http://kyweathercenter.com/?attachment_id=31364 (http://kyweathercenter.com/?attachment_id=31364)

Post Merge: September 22, 2018, 06:44:11 AM
Come to Gallatin. I almost run into one on the daily. I think the spiders do it on purpose for the kicks and giggles.


It's the worse--because you don't know if the spider is crawling on your body somewhere. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on September 22, 2018, 09:10:01 AM
Growing up, I heard my grandmother mention several times that the higher the spiders build their webs, the worse the winter will be.  Like most folklore, I don't know if there's anything to that, but I'm seeing spiders build their webs higher than I've ever seen them before.  They are hanging 20-30 feet off the ground between huge trees.  It's pretty creepy looking up to see a huge spider suspended against the blue sky above.  Makes the woods around the house feel like a movie set for a Halloween horror flick.  Anyway, I've never observed that since moving here, and I've not been accidently walking through webs every morning, which is usually the case each fall.   

(Whoops...accidently deleted while trying to add a post).   ::coffee::


Post Merge: September 22, 2018, 06:41:44 AM
Pulled this from Chris Bailey's site. . .Early October looks cool.

http://kyweathercenter.com/?attachment_id=31364 (http://kyweathercenter.com/?attachment_id=31364)

Post Merge: September 22, 2018, 06:44:11 AM

It's the worse--because you don't know if the spider is crawling on your body somewhere.
proably building them higher to prepare for the floods thatís coming later ... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on September 22, 2018, 02:31:05 PM
proably building them higher to prepare for the floods thatís coming later ... lol

Could be....or the snowdrifts.   ::evillaugh::

(https://asd.gsfc.nasa.gov/archive/tiger/images/eric_drift.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on September 22, 2018, 03:37:44 PM
Models agree on first U.S. winter storm of the season to hit MT, ND, & MN on Oct. 1.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on September 22, 2018, 03:44:18 PM
Models agree on first U.S. winter storm of the season to hit MT, ND, & MN on Oct. 1.

Winter Storm A-Aron
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on September 22, 2018, 04:56:43 PM
It is probably too early but I won't have a lot of free time in Oct-early December so I will go ahead and post my thoughts and way too early prediction for the winter now.

The major factors will be:

- Weak to Moderate West-Based aka Modoki El-Nino.  I am thinking similar in the strength to 2006-07 but unlike 2006-07 this will likely be a Central Pacific type of El-Nino.  These tend to be better for us in the Eastern USA.

+ PDO which tends to lead to riding in the Western USA

The QBO trend that Curt described

- An active subtropical jet which we have seen already.  San Antonio now has their wettest September on record.   

The pattern we will start to head into in the coming weeks is likely a sign of what is to come for much of the winter.  There will be relaxation periods just like we had in 2009-10 and 2014-15 but I have reason to believe we are in for a very solid winter for the Southern and Northeastern USA. 

Color Map:
Orange: Above Normal +1 to +3 temperature departure
Red: Much Above Normal Greater than +3

Blue: Below Normal -1 to -3 temperature departure
Dark Blue: Much Below Greater than -3


(http://i63.tinypic.com/igkvi1.png)

I will go with climatology and say that late-November and December will be a relaxation between a colder than normal October-early November and what follows.  As long as we avoid a strongly +NAO or +AO then I will think that our area will finish close to average temperature wise and may find a way to at least sneak in a winter event.

Chattanogga: +1.0
Memphis: +0.8
Nashville: +1.0
Tri-Cities: +1.5 

 (http://i67.tinypic.com/345ip8k.png)

I think here is where the +PDO and favorable Pacific conditions will overall lead to paydirt. With potential blocking in the Northwest and SE Canada and into Greenland that will allow for winter air to pour into our area and linger starting in January. The teardrop shape is due to the potential for the ridges to intrude at times in the Northern Plains.  An active subtropical jet should also help temperatures down quite a bit in the southern USA by way of precipitation and cloudcover.

Chattanogga: -3.1
Memphis: -3.0
Nashville: -2.5
Tri-Cities: -2.5

(http://i67.tinypic.com/16k9w5l.png)

Another day and another cold February prediction.  I thankfully didn't predict a cold one on 2017, but the 2018 and 2016 calls were major busts.  Our last two Modoki El-Nino's (2010 and 2015) were solidly below average in the temperature category.  As long as the Pacific cooperates we may not even need a -NAO/AO as a strong +PNA may help in assuming a Warm to Hot West and Cold East pattern.  Will this one bust or will this one verify as 2010 and 2015 did?  We will have to wait and see.  I do think there is a strong potential for at least a Top 10 Warmest February on record in the Pacific Northwest. 

Chattanogga: -5.0
Memphis: -3.5
Nashville: -4.0
Tri-Cities: -4.5

Precipitation:

(http://i68.tinypic.com/2pr7o86.png)

Typically in weaker El-Nino events the subtropcial jet is suppressed a bit further south.  With the potential of some potent cold air masses I will agree with that decision and go with a drier than normal winter for our area.  Remember that if much of our precip is snow we will likely up drier than normal as 1 inch of snow comes to only 0.10 of an inch of rain and it could be as low as 15:1 or even 20:1 in really cold airmasses. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on September 22, 2018, 05:43:33 PM
StormNine, thanks for posting your thoughts for this upcoming Winter... but I'm curious, you have Memphis at +3.0 for January temps. Would that be a typo?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on September 22, 2018, 07:40:57 PM
StormNine, thanks for posting your thoughts for this upcoming Winter... but I'm curious, you have Memphis at +3.0 for January temps. Would that be a typo?

It should be a -3.0 and not a +. Those little typos get me all the time. 

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on September 25, 2018, 08:42:44 PM
The Sun set at the North Pole yesterday, and won't rise again until spring.  Twilight will continue to deepen into the long, dark night of winter. 

http://www.athropolis.com/sun-fr.htm (http://www.athropolis.com/sun-fr.htm)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on October 14, 2018, 01:08:30 PM
Getting nearer to more accurate forecasting tools for winter

Euro seasonal mean of 51 members for December to February

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181014/dab2b3fad0ced903cf6dc48dae1ee0d2.jpg)

JMA for same period
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181014/09cd4df83179dc02ebb72763835714a1.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 14, 2018, 01:48:09 PM
Getting nearer to more accurate forecasting tools for winter

Euro seasonal mean of 51 members for December to February

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181014/dab2b3fad0ced903cf6dc48dae1ee0d2.jpg)

JMA for same period
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181014/09cd4df83179dc02ebb72763835714a1.jpg)

Lookin' good in our neighborhood. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 14, 2018, 01:49:29 PM
Getting nearer to more accurate forecasting tools for winter

Euro seasonal mean of 51 members for December to February

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181014/dab2b3fad0ced903cf6dc48dae1ee0d2.jpg)

JMA for same period
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181014/09cd4df83179dc02ebb72763835714a1.jpg)
and with much of canada showing above normal temps...perhaps that will keep out pattern from being supressed  ... which is a good thing...could be lot ice this winter for our area ::doh::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on October 14, 2018, 02:43:55 PM
and with much of canada showing above normal temps...perhaps that will keep out pattern from being supressed  ... which is a good thing...could be lot ice this winter for our area ::doh::

Actually thatís the pattern at 500mb not temps.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on October 14, 2018, 08:00:42 PM
One thing to stress about forecasts that may be seen is that if we have a solidly colder than normal winter than we will have a greater than normal chance for below average precipitation.  Remember that snow on average has only 1/10th the water content as rain, so if a good deal of our winter precipitation falls as snow than we will likely be below average precipitation-wise (see 1963-64 and 2009-10). 

I want to say that because a lot of people see below average precipitation and temperatures and assume suppression city. 

Post Merge: October 14, 2018, 08:14:20 PM
One thing I have noticed from the long-range models is that they aren't showing much of a warm-up in November-December and typically that timeframe leans warmer than average for the Southeastern USA in El-Nino years.  That will be an interesting thing to watch over the coming weeks.  It is quite rare to go below average in all three winter months especially post 2000.  With that in mind and this current cool-cold wave for this time of year it would make sense to have a period of warmth during that time.  The good thing is if we have our warm period in November-Early December then we potentially time our next cold shot for the Holidays and into the heart of the winter.   

We shall see.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 14, 2018, 08:40:47 PM
One thing to stress about forecasts that may be seen is that if we have a solidly colder than normal winter than we will have a greater than normal chance for below average precipitation.  Remember that snow on average has only 1/10th the water content as rain, so if a good deal of our winter precipitation falls as snow than we will likely be below average precipitation-wise (see 1963-64 and 2009-10). 

I want to say that because a lot of people see below average precipitation and temperatures and assume suppression city. 

Post Merge: October 14, 2018, 08:14:20 PM
One thing I have noticed from the long-range models is that they aren't showing much of a warm-up in November-December and typically that timeframe leans warmer than average for the Southeastern USA in El-Nino years.  That will be an interesting thing to watch over the coming weeks.  It is quite rare to go below average in all three winter months especially post 2000.  With that in mind and this current cool-cold wave for this time of year it would make sense to have a period of warmth during that time.  The good thing is if we have our warm period in November-Early December then we potentially time our next cold shot for the Holidays and into the heart of the winter.   

We shall see.
yeah but also ... El NiŮoís favor a active southern storm track... we shall see
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on October 14, 2018, 09:00:31 PM
At least in Chattanooga, presence of gulf moisture has a much stronger positive correlation with above average snowfall than cold temperatures. We've had a lot of good winters with marginally cold (or even above normal) temps when systems are able to tap the gulf. If we get cut off from the gulf (suppression) we get nada (see last winter). It is basically impossible for clippers or NW flow snow to fall here due to topography. Feels like we are overdue. I haven't seen more than a half inch on the ground here since 2015.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on October 14, 2018, 10:46:26 PM
Knoxville can get lucky with those clippers during colder than normal winters. Chattanooga doesn't have the advantage that NE TN and the Plateau has with those weak clippers. I think that's another reason why Chattanooga didn't cash in on anything last year. The main culprit for the paltry amount of snowfall in Chattanooga was a very strong trough which sent everything south early on, followed by an abrupt pattern change in which it would either be rainy and 50-60 or sunny and 35, with any sort of activity during cold weeks going north.

We can still strike those blockbuster storms during warm years. 2015-2016 was warm as crap (though most of that was due to the epically warm El NiŮo-induced December torchfest) but Middle TN cashed in on Jonas.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 15, 2018, 07:51:44 AM
This is the current 8-14 day outlook.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/167a80l.gif)

I only post this pic because the upcoming winter may look a lot like this.  Tennessee could be in the transition zone between wet and dry.  Timing is everything in this pattern, and many times before a dry northwest flow sets up, a strong storm system will ride up from the Gulf into the northeast.  That's when we tend to get our significant snows--in a pattern transition to a deep Eastern trough.  Once the deep trough is in place, we're dependent on clippers tapping enough of the Gulf to drop a few inches here and there.  The plateau and mountains do well in a northwest flow, but the lower elevations need a decent disturbance to generate enough lift to get more than a dusting--especially areas like Chattanooga.

Anyway, let's hope Tennessee is in a sweet spot this year--the battle zone between a cold, dry north and a milder, but wet, Deep South.  Everything points to a better winter than the last two, but we know how that goes sometimes. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 15, 2018, 08:17:39 AM
We use to have some decent clippers years ago west tn... but they seem to be less and less each passing winter .... not to big on clippers ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on October 15, 2018, 08:51:07 AM
Getting nearer to more accurate forecasting tools for winter

Euro seasonal mean of 51 members for December to February

That's it, I'm going on Amazon right now and buying a new sled.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 15, 2018, 09:02:22 AM
That's it, I'm going on Amazon right now and buying a new sled.  ::snowman::
just jinxed it ... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on October 15, 2018, 09:18:00 AM
just jinxed it ... lol

There are no jinx's for this winter, it's in the bag. It will be in the Top 15 for total snowfall.

Disclaimer: I know nothing and this is mostly sarcasm.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 15, 2018, 09:22:13 AM
There are no jinx's for this winter, it's in the bag. It will be in the Top 15 for total snowfall.

Disclaimer: I know nothing and this is mostly sarcasm.
i take just half of what 84 85 gave me ... I be happy
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on October 15, 2018, 09:30:24 AM
There are no jinx's for this winter, it's in the bag. It will be in the Top 15 for total snowfall.

Disclaimer: I know nothing and this is mostly sarcasm.

It's so bad, we mock winter with our deliberate and obvious jinx attempts. By telling winter it will produce, obviously knowing we're jinxing it, winter will call our bluff and we'll get slammed, purely out of spite. We'll get dumped on this winter.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on October 15, 2018, 10:46:09 AM
Personally Iím preparing for a lot of 33* cold rains. Also, letís keep this in mind...we are long overdue for a major ice event. Iím thinking this is the year for that.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Crockett on October 15, 2018, 11:10:08 AM
and with much of canada showing above normal temps...perhaps that will keep out pattern from being supressed  ... which is a good thing...could be lot ice this winter for our area ::doh::

Bruce, with all due respect, when was the last winter you didn't predict a lot of ice for our area?  ;D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on October 15, 2018, 11:23:15 AM
I'm prepared for some of you to reminisce in the Great Winter of 1984-85 and make comparisons to it by saying "x" weather event in October is how January 1985's pattern all got started... 

::lookaround::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 15, 2018, 11:27:29 AM
Bruce, with all due respect, when was the last winter you didn't predict a lot of ice for our area?  ;D
been while think actually Crockett .... just thinking weíre going see more times than not.  The deeper article air struggle to come further down... we are certainly over due for a humdinger of a ice storm

Post Merge: October 15, 2018, 12:07:45 PM
I'm prepared for some of you to reminisce in the Great Winter of 1984-85 and make comparisons to it by saying "x" weather event in October is how January 1985's pattern all got started... 

::lookaround::
the very start of it was a complete torch. With temps breaking records that still hold for December ...than a big system came newyears eve nite  brought severe weather ... 4 days later 10 inches snow ... pattern locked in
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on October 15, 2018, 12:51:42 PM
Bruce, with all due respect, when was the last winter you didn't predict a lot of ice for our area?  ;D

Like I always say- shoot in the dark and youíre bound to hit something eventually
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on October 15, 2018, 12:56:00 PM
I'm prepared for some of you to reminisce in the Great Winter of 1984-85 and make comparisons to it by saying "x" weather event in October is how January 1985's pattern all got started... 

::lookaround::

84-85 was an awesome winter even for the Mississippi Delta when I lived there.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on October 15, 2018, 12:57:25 PM
Like I always say- shoot in the dark and youíre bound to hit something eventually

A broken clock has better odds lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 15, 2018, 01:08:46 PM
84-85 is the benchmark for winter weather for our area for those old enough to have experienced that winter.  If it wasn't for 84-85, we might think last year was a good winter.  So, it's a blessing and a curse.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on October 15, 2018, 01:15:04 PM
84-85 was a weak to mod LaNina so itís not an analog.

Ukmet looks cold and stormy for this winter from its release today. American models CFS is a blowtorch.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 15, 2018, 01:16:38 PM
84-85 was a weak to mod LaNina so itís not an analog.

Ukmet looks cold and stormy for this winter from its release today. American models CFS is a blowtorch.
yeah. Nina. Knew. But itís one my favorite winters ....  so it sets the bar for me on a great winter here...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 15, 2018, 01:23:32 PM
84-85 was a weak to mod LaNina so itís not an analog.

Ukmet looks cold and stormy for this winter from its release today. American models CFS is a blowtorch.

At least it's only the American models calling for a torch.  I may be a red-blooded American, but I'll pull for the UK on this one.  Or the Euro, or the Japanese.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on October 15, 2018, 03:09:00 PM
Personally Iím preparing for a lot of 33* cold rains. Also, letís keep this in mind...we are long overdue for a major ice event. Iím thinking this is the year for that.

33 and rain? Heck, try 27 and rain. I'll never get over that storm. 27 degrees and pouring rain for what felt like hours.  ::sick::

Post Merge: October 15, 2018, 03:11:05 PM
It's so bad, we mock winter with our deliberate and obvious jinx attempts. By telling winter it will produce, obviously knowing we're jinxing it, winter will call our bluff and we'll get slammed, purely out of spite. We'll get dumped on this winter.

The Old Man Winter will do what he wants, we have no say in it, so we might as well have a little fun with it.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 15, 2018, 11:56:14 PM
76-77,77-78 and 84-85 were awesome here. I don't know which was worse. We missed the entire month of school in Jan 77 and snow covered the ground from the 4th of Jan until the first of Feb. The roads were also covered as big time cold and another snow every 4-5 days the entire month was like clockwork. We had anywhere from 5-10 inches of snow on the ground virtually the entire month. 77-78 was more spread out but we had several big snows and missed a bunch of days. Including 2 different snows that put us out a week at a time plus at least 2 more snows where we missed a couple of days each time. 84-85 I was out of school, I was about 20 years old and the end of jan and feb were brutal. We recorded snow and brutal cold the month of feb. One 8 inch snowfall followed by extreme cold and more snow. I think Jan 77 and Feb 85 was the most epic I have seen, hard to say which was worse. I would take anything similar and do cartwheels. That 1 week last year reminded me of that time it just didn't last near as long nor have the number of snows. But at least we had 2 decent snows in a weeks time that stayed on the ground for about 7 days. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 16, 2018, 12:39:20 PM
Siberia may not be getting a lot of snow, but North America is. . .

http://www.msn.com/en-us/video/tunedin/snow-is-covering-more-of-north-america-than-usual-for-october/vi-BBOqcRM?ocid=ientp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/video/tunedin/snow-is-covering-more-of-north-america-than-usual-for-october/vi-BBOqcRM?ocid=ientp)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on October 16, 2018, 06:24:45 PM
In Southern KY the most epic winters were the late 70s, 84-85, 2010-11, and 2014-15. 

2014-15 was very close to being epic in much of TN and it was in the Tiptonville/Union City area into Kentucky.  It isn't that common to see two major winter storms producing 1 foot or more of snow in one winter, plus that February and Early March was quite cold.  Some areas along US 62 in Kentucky recorded over 40 inches of snow during the winter of 2014-15. 

That 6-week span of 1984-85 would of be awesome to live in.  I was born just a few years late.  That was some of the most intense cold/snow looking back at the records that a winter can offer. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on October 16, 2018, 08:01:25 PM
I can imagine myself sitting in a reclining chair in 2074 and telling my grandkids how much it used to snow during the magnificent winters of the 2000s and 2010s.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 16, 2018, 08:42:41 PM
I can imagine myself sitting in a reclining chair in 2074 and telling my grandkids how much it used to snow during the magnificent winters of the 2000s and 2010s.  ::rofl::
by the year 2074... i will be a old man.... lets  not rush time  ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 17, 2018, 06:51:39 AM
In Southern KY the most epic winters were the late 70s, 84-85, 2010-11, and 2014-15. 

2014-15 was very close to being epic in much of TN and it was in the Tiptonville/Union City area into Kentucky.  It isn't that common to see two major winter storms producing 1 foot or more of snow in one winter, plus that February and Early March was quite cold.  Some areas along US 62 in Kentucky recorded over 40 inches of snow during the winter of 2014-15. 

That 6-week span of 1984-85 would of be awesome to live in.  I was born just a few years late.  That was some of the most intense cold/snow looking back at the records that a winter can offer.

In southeast KY the winters of 1993-94 & 95-96 were somewhat similar to 84-85.  Perhaps Mt. Pinatubo had an influence on the bitter cold winter of 93-94.  London Ky. recorded their all-time record low up to that point (I believe it was -26).  A snow of epic proportions in January buried the central and eastern parts with 12-24" of snow, and Interstate 75 was closed from Covington to the Tennessee border.  The Arctic outbreak that followed kept the snow on the ground for weeks.  1995-96 was also a winter with plenty of snow, sometimes on the ground for nearly a week at a time when another snowfall would add even more accumulation.  I remember piles of snow in parking lots lasting weeks because warm spells were infrequent, and snow kept falling.  After 95-96, winters were blowtorch city until 02-03, when we had a marginally cold winter, but snowfall wasn't excessive.  From that point on, we had to wait until '09-'10 to see a winter that even had a decent stretch of below normal temperatures.

At least that's how I remember it, as I sit in my rocking chair reminiscing with my Red Bull.  (That's how we Gen X'ers chill out).
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 17, 2018, 07:17:46 AM
In Southern KY the most epic winters were the late 70s, 84-85, 2010-11, and 2014-15. 

2014-15 was very close to being epic in much of TN and it was in the Tiptonville/Union City area into Kentucky.  It isn't that common to see two major winter storms producing 1 foot or more of snow in one winter, plus that February and Early March was quite cold.  Some areas along US 62 in Kentucky recorded over 40 inches of snow during the winter of 2014-15. 

That 6-week span of 1984-85 would of be awesome to live in.  I was born just a few years late.  That was some of the most intense cold/snow looking back at the records that a winter can offer.
dont forget bout the big December 2004 Snow storm... people were stranded in cars along major hwys.... that was the system that brought me. Close to 5 inches of pure sleet... hardest I ever seen sleet fall with brisk winds to boot ... sting your face....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on October 17, 2018, 02:37:12 PM
by the year 2074... i will be a old man.... lets  not rush time  ;)

I'll be 94, so the weather will probably be happening about 6 feet above me.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 17, 2018, 03:34:56 PM
I'll be 94, so the weather will probably be happening about 6 feet above me.
try 112 for me lol....
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on October 17, 2018, 03:56:13 PM
by the year 2074... i will be a old man.... lets  not rush time 

Iím sure we will be kinda dead lol. I would be 108. If I was lucky enough to make it that long, I would be drooling in my soup.
Wait sometimes I do that now


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on October 17, 2018, 04:12:07 PM
Iím sure we will be kinda dead lol. I would be 108. If I was lucky enough to make it that long, I would be drooling in my soup.
Wait sometimes I do that now


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You young'uns beat all... I'll be 111.  LOL
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 18, 2018, 08:42:46 AM
Snow cover continues to run above normal in Canada, and LR models show it deepening further, especially central/eastern areas.  Can't be a bad thing for winter weather weenies.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on October 18, 2018, 09:23:44 PM
Snow here is nothing but luck. I thought we were past this..... Cold Winter, Warm Winter, Dry Winter, Wet Winter, it all averages out about the same. Forecast 3-4 days out not 3-4 months :) Climatology wins
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 19, 2018, 07:25:57 AM
Snow here is nothing but luck. I thought we were past this..... Cold Winter, Warm Winter, Dry Winter, Wet Winter, it all averages out about the same. Forecast 3-4 days out not 3-4 months :) Climatology wins

At least we have a better chance of seeing snow than winning either jackpot from Mega Millions or Powerball.   ::snow:: 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 19, 2018, 07:51:11 AM
At least we have a better chance of seeing snow than winning either jackpot from Mega Millions or Powerball.   ::snow::
yeah, and the climate change dont stop or slow down...odds of winning the owerball will become better... :D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on October 19, 2018, 06:15:27 PM
NOAA is out with their forecast which is mostly for average temperatures and precipitation for our neck of the woods and above average precipitation along and south of I-20 and along and east of I-81. 

They are suggesting some blowtorching going on in the Northern US into Canada and across the Plains and the Western US. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 20, 2018, 11:10:20 AM
It will be interesting to see how November unfolds.  About every cold winter we've had in recent memory has had a cold November. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on October 20, 2018, 01:53:11 PM
It will be interesting to see how November unfolds.  About every cold winter we've had in recent memory has had a cold November.

With our analogs for the upcoming year, there is no strong signal either way for November.  Some were cool to cold and others like 1965 and 2009 were torchy.

Usually, the stronger signal for weak to moderate modoki E-Nino's is for a warmer than normal December and a colder than normal Late-January and February.   

Post Merge: October 20, 2018, 02:05:20 PM
The best analogs for this upcoming winter are:
1957-58
1963-64
1965-66
1968-69
1986-87
2002-03
2006-07
2009-10 

These are weak to moderate west-based aka modoki El-Nino events (2006-07 was a bit more central based versus west-based)  that came after either a cold neutral or la-nina event. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 21, 2018, 07:27:52 AM

Usually, the stronger signal for weak to moderate modoki E-Nino's is for a warmer than normal December and a colder than normal Late-January and February.   

Post Merge: October 20, 2018, 02:05:20 PM
The best analogs for this upcoming winter are:
1957-58
1963-64
1965-66
1968-69
1986-87
2002-03
2006-07
2009-10 

These are weak to moderate west-based aka modoki El-Nino events (2006-07 was a bit more central based versus west-based)  that came after either a cold neutral or la-nina event.

Not liking that 06-07.  I just remember a drought developing that lasted well into 07.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JHart on October 21, 2018, 07:40:24 AM
Thermometer next to the house read 32.2F at 7:00 AM while the remote thermometer about 100 feet away read 29F.  There was a decent frost, considering the warm ground.  Welcome, Fall!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on October 21, 2018, 08:44:05 AM
We've gotten some good snows out of 2002-03 and 2009-10.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on October 21, 2018, 04:51:13 PM
yeah, and the climate change dont stop or slow down...odds of winning the owerball will become better... :D

History would suggest climate changing is the norm, so I doubt it's going to stop.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on October 21, 2018, 06:20:43 PM
With the talk of a Moderate possibility Moderate-Borderline Strong El-Nino this year it should be noted that we can go fairly strong on El-Nino's and still have a solid winter, we just can't go to the super level like 97-98 or 2015-16.   

1957-58, 1965-66, 2002-03, and 2009-10 were all on the Moderate-Strong cusp (around +1.3C to +1.6C) and I would be happy with each of those winters. There isn't anything that suggests that we will rush past +1.5C this winter. As far as strength goes as long as we are not hitting at or around the 2.0C or greater range then we are okay. 

One thing that I could see develop with a Moderate or Moderate to Borderline Strong El-Nino is the possibility of a severe weather/tornado threat sometime in December.  1957, 1987, and 2002 all had a severe threat somewhere around or just to the west of our area.  It wouldn't be too surprising to see of these especially with any pattern changing system that could take us to a colder pattern later on. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 21, 2018, 07:08:58 PM
With the talk of a Moderate possibility Moderate-Borderline Strong El-Nino this year it should be noted that we can go fairly strong on El-Nino's and still have a solid winter, we just can't go to the super level like 97-98 or 2015-16.   

1957-58, 1965-66, 2002-03, and 2009-10 were all on the Moderate-Strong cusp (around +1.3C to +1.6C) and I would be happy with each of those winters. There isn't anything that suggests that we will rush past +1.5C this winter. As far as strength goes as long as we are not hitting at or around the 2.0C or greater range then we are okay. 

One thing that I could see develop with a Moderate or Moderate to Borderline Strong El-Nino is the possibility of a severe weather/tornado threat sometime in December.  1957, 1987, and 2002 all had a severe threat somewhere around or just to the west of our area.  It wouldn't be too surprising to see of these especially with any pattern changing system that could take us to a colder pattern later on.
did I hear the word tornado threat... dear god Someone pinch me... I must be dreaming ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on October 22, 2018, 07:00:19 PM
Hackuweather winter forecast.

https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2018-2019-us-winter-forecast-storms-to-target-mid-atlantic-snow-and-ice-to-strike-the-southern-plains/70006208

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 23, 2018, 08:12:00 AM
Judah Cohen.  Calling for a mild winter for us overall... his one better winter experts out there ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 23, 2018, 08:20:22 AM
Judah has some good theories, but he's missed the last two winters, overall.  His "snowy Siberia (in October) = a cold & snowy eastern U.S." hypothesis didn't do so well, and I think he is still learning (like the rest of us) that a strong -AO doesn't always mean it gets cold and stormy here. 
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on October 23, 2018, 10:52:26 AM
Judah Cohen.  Calling for a mild winter for us overall... his one better winter experts out there ...


https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

His model is generated with heavy weight in early season snowcover in Eurasia in association with a negative AO being predominant. He even indicates there are weakness in his theory ie last 2 winters had high early season snowcover and ended up as well know- not well below normal temps overall. He actually is skeptical of his model this year since El NiŮo is central based vs eastern based- which he says may change the way he ultimately weighs this winter. Itís a good read and much more in depth than just saying ďpredicting a mild winterĒ.

Edit- here is Judah Cohenís conclusion in his winter model forecast.

ďIn conclusion, the relatively slow advance of Eurasian snow cover, the current lack of high latitude blocking and a general El NiŮo favor overall relatively mild winter temperatures for the Eastern US.  However I do see high bust potential for this forecast.  Central Pacific rather than an Eastern Pacific El NiŮo may favor a colder winter than represented in the model.  Elevated North Pacific SSTs may contribute to a cold Eastern US.  In addition future sea ice anomalies and high latitude blocking may eventually contribute to a cold winter.  Also snow cover has been relatively extensive this fall across Canada.  If this were to persist, it could contribute to cold temperatures in the Eastern US.  None of these factors are properly represented in the model and could be dominant on the winter atmospheric circulation in particular across North America, more so than low October Siberian snow cover extent.Ē
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on October 23, 2018, 04:29:42 PM
Mr. Cohen has taken a bit of a fall from grace the last few years. He was all the talk a few years ago, then disaster.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on October 23, 2018, 04:55:41 PM
Mr. Cohen has taken a bit of a fall from grace the last few years. He was all the talk a few years ago, then disaster.

I mean how do you explain ďhereís my model and it has a high bust potentialĒ. Maybe you need a new model?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 23, 2018, 05:11:01 PM
In the 80's, El Nino was the end all when it came to predicting winter weather.  El Nino guaranteed warm weather.  Then we learned there are different types of El Ninos.  Then it was the NAO/AO.  If they go negative, harsh winter weather is guaranteed.  Then we learned there is an east based NAO, and a west based NAO.  Then it was sudden stratospheric warming.  Then it was snow in Siberia.  Who knows what the next thing will be, but the lesson to be learned is we never stop learning. The more we learn, the more we realize we don't know. 

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on October 25, 2018, 08:15:29 AM
I mean how do you explain ďhereís my model and it has a high bust potentialĒ. Maybe you need a new model?

Lol, you can't explain it. His theory is just that, an unconfirmed theory.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on October 25, 2018, 08:37:22 AM
his one better winter experts out there ...

(https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/005/124/hC3AE2E25.jpeg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on October 26, 2018, 06:26:38 AM
In the 80's, El Nino was the end all when it came to predicting winter weather.  El Nino guaranteed warm weather.  Then we learned there are different types of El Ninos.  Then it was the NAO/AO.  If they go negative, harsh winter weather is guaranteed.  Then we learned there is an east based NAO, and a west based NAO.  Then it was sudden stratospheric warming.  Then it was snow in Siberia.  Who knows what the next thing will be, but the lesson to be learned is we never stop learning. The more we learn, the more we realize we don't know.

Yes some forecasters just broad brush El NiŮo. Oh it means a warmer than average winter. Each one is different and a lot of factors play into the reality of what will happen.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Crockett on October 26, 2018, 09:41:46 AM
Yes some forecasters just broad brush El NiŮo. Oh it means a warmer than average winter. Each one is different and a lot of factors play into the reality of what will happen.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Let's leave the CPC out of this.  >:D >:D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on October 26, 2018, 01:48:46 PM
I like our probability of a wetter than average winter. I will take the wet weather over the unusually cold and dry December we had last year.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 26, 2018, 03:53:15 PM
Right now I would say I think Jan-Feb is our best shot at major winter weather events. Not much of a prediction here, just don't see November bringing much, it rarely does. December can bring the goods but more times than not it doesn't. Hopefully we can cash in on a few major winter storms. Maybe Jan and Feb will produce. No matter what looking forward to winter, would love for it to be a active one. It's fun following even when we barely miss if it's a active winter, especially if we have a few hits along the way. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on October 26, 2018, 10:12:17 PM
Winter here is a coin toss, the entire way through. Any given year imo is as good as another here. The season as a whole never makes Winter here, its the random event that does. Ill chase and get interested when it shows up on the global models. Climate wins every time
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on October 26, 2018, 10:56:59 PM
Are we expecting a Moderate El Nino?

NAO is trending +
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on October 26, 2018, 11:53:46 PM
Are we expecting a Moderate El Nino?

NAO is trending +
correct.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on October 27, 2018, 06:13:41 AM
The NAO has been in mostly positive territory since late 2017 and has only recently dipped briefly negative.  While a -NAO helps to lock cold into our area, it's not the only driver for cold here.  In the recent colder winters, the NAO has remained neutral to positive, with only brief stints in negative territory, and those mostly occurred in our cold springs or during the summer months.  Why that is I don't know, but I'm relying on the NAO for NADA.

Below is the mean NAO index for 2013-15.  The only recent good winter where a -NAO locked in and drove the winter pattern was 09-10.  Since then, the NAO has been more cozy in positive territory during our winter months.

Quote
2013   0.35  -0.45  -1.61   0.69   0.57   0.52   0.67   0.97   0.24  -1.28   0.90   0.95
2014   0.29   1.34   0.80   0.31  -0.92  -0.97   0.18  -1.68   1.62  -1.27   0.68   1.86
2015   1.79   1.32   1.45   0.73   0.15  -0.07  -3.18  -0.76  -0.65   0.44   1.74   2.24
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on October 27, 2018, 09:09:27 AM
I viewed NOAA's forecast yesterday and they outlined the trend from the current negative to neutral by early November.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on October 28, 2018, 11:00:18 AM
(http://i67.tinypic.com/2lt0aww.png)

(http://i65.tinypic.com/ap8mrm.png)

(http://i63.tinypic.com/24q7clc.png)

(http://i66.tinypic.com/98d107.png)

(http://i67.tinypic.com/331o94n.png)

(http://i67.tinypic.com/zxmo86.png)


Temperature Breakdown:

December
Bowling Green KY: +3.0F
Chattanooga: +2.5F
Knoxville: +2.9F
Memphis: +2.5F
Nashville: +2.9F

January
Bowling Green KY: -1.5F
Chattanooga: -1.9F
Knoxville: -1.5F
Memphis: -2.0F
Nashville: -1.4F

February
Bowling Green KY: -5.0F
Chattanooga: -5.5F
Knoxville: -5.0F
Memphis: -5.0F
Nashville: -5.0F


Post Merge: October 28, 2018, 11:19:06 AM
I forgot the best part (unless you are in Idaho or the Pacific Northwest).

(http://i63.tinypic.com/97l160.png)

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on November 02, 2018, 02:04:01 PM
The NAO has been in mostly positive territory since late 2017 and has only recently dipped briefly negative.  While a -NAO helps to lock cold into our area, it's not the only driver for cold here.  In the recent colder winters, the NAO has remained neutral to positive, with only brief stints in negative territory, and those mostly occurred in our cold springs or during the summer months.  Why that is I don't know, but I'm relying on the NAO for NADA.

Below is the mean NAO index for 2013-15.  The only recent good winter where a -NAO locked in and drove the winter pattern was 09-10.  Since then, the NAO has been more cozy in positive territory during our winter months.

you can thank the negative EPO for the cold winters of these years despite the positive NAO. that would be the big warm blob that's still in place and incredibly persistent in the gulf of Alaska.


JB's updated winter maps with primary analogs of 2002-03 and 2009-10.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/xlifmh.png)
(http://i65.tinypic.com/1zl3ixc.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on November 09, 2018, 05:25:31 PM
In my experience a neutral to slightly positive NAO is best for winter storms in the western part of the state so I am ok with that kind of a forecast.  Strongly negative NAOs just means cold and dry most of the time here (though better for those of you to the east!).

Post Merge: November 10, 2018, 11:40:06 AM
I officially turned on the heat this weekend.  Winter is coming.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on November 12, 2018, 11:56:35 AM
Some of us in the west may get our first shot of the frozen stuff over night tonight.  Not much to talk about but I will take it for early November.  There is a potential second shot later in the week too!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on November 12, 2018, 12:19:06 PM
Some of us in the west may get our first shot of the frozen stuff over night tonight.  Not much to talk about but I will take it for early November.  There is a potential second shot later in the week too!

Good call to change to winter forum. May go ahead and start a thread for Wed PM since consistency is there. I know...I may kill chances now. The weather will do what it wants to.

Post Merge: November 12, 2018, 12:21:57 PM
The 12z Euro will be about as friendly for snow in west state as any so far. Really interesting set up. If the Euro doesn't show it, I usually will be highly suspect. Thus more confidence today. It puts down a nice 3-5 inch snowfall west of a Paris to Somerville line with greater accumulations in NW TN. SE MO gets hammered with heavy wet snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: memphishogfan on November 12, 2018, 01:03:39 PM
Donít you put that evil on us by starting a event thread.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on November 12, 2018, 04:07:07 PM
Good call to change to winter forum. May go ahead and start a thread for Wed PM since consistency is there. I know...I may kill chances now. The weather will do what it wants to.

Post Merge: November 12, 2018, 12:21:57 PM
The 12z Euro will be about as friendly for snow in west state as any so far. Really interesting set up. If the Euro doesn't show it, I usually will be highly suspect. Thus more confidence today. It puts down a nice 3-5 inch snowfall west of a Paris to Somerville line with greater accumulations in NW TN. SE MO gets hammered with heavy wet snow.

*revokes your Admin status due to sheer jealousy*
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on November 12, 2018, 04:19:31 PM
*revokes your Admin status due to sheer jealousy*

Probably not much to get jealous about, the usual scum bags to our NW will likely end up with all the fun while the metro gets dry slotted and/or drizzle at 33 degrees.  ::rofl::

Still though its nice to have an event to chase in November.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on November 12, 2018, 04:21:14 PM
Probably not much to get jealous about, the usual scum bags to our NW will likely end up with all the fun while the metro gets dry slotted and/or drizzle at 33 degrees.  ::rofl::

Still though its nice to have an event to chase in November.

SE MO has been a frickin jackpot this decade.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 12, 2018, 05:00:14 PM
Probably not much to get jealous about, the usual scum bags to our NW will likely end up with all the fun while the metro gets dry slotted and/or drizzle at 33 degrees.  ::rofl::

Still though its nice to have an event to chase in November.
Thatís not nice.  8)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 12, 2018, 05:04:28 PM
*revokes your Admin status due to sheer jealousy*


We can do that?  >:D 


Anyone who gets more snow than me, consider yourself revoked.   :police:
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on November 12, 2018, 05:19:48 PM

We can do that?  >:D 


Anyone who gets more snow than me, consider yourself revoked.   :police:

Well no, but I am in a ďHouse of CardsĒ mood and following the rules isnít exactly their thing! 😂😀
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on November 12, 2018, 06:36:22 PM
If you guys have looked at the annual snowfall totals this past decade, Memphis has beaten out the other three major cities several times. NW Tennessee has experienced several big storms, especially near the Reelfoot Lake region.

Leave it to mother nature to produce the most snow in the least-densely populated parts of Tennessee. Who the heck lives in Obion County? Lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on November 12, 2018, 06:37:43 PM
*revokes your Admin status due to sheer jealousy*

Ha well just give it time. The 18z man for whatever itís worth has more freezing rain than snow thus the MEG forecast for nothing in the metro. I bet this- these things are so weird- it wonít happen that way or what might even look possible today.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 12, 2018, 09:26:38 PM
Always can count on the 3k NAM.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/2djzajp.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on November 12, 2018, 09:36:15 PM
Here's the 12KM NAM.

(https://i.imgur.com/VRnsyRo.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on November 12, 2018, 09:45:27 PM
Always can count on the 3k NAM.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/2djzajp.jpg)

Just about all that accumulation from eastern half of west TN is freezing rain. In fact, if that run is taken verbatim, thereís above .25 in qpf along and just west of the TN River. Thereís actually some sleet west of there along with some snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 12, 2018, 09:46:54 PM
I want be up but could see first flakes of the year tonight according to HRRR.



Post Merge: November 12, 2018, 09:54:11 PM
Just about all that accumulation from eastern half of west TN is freezing rain. In fact, if that run is taken verbatim, thereís above .25 in qpf along and just west of the TN River. Thereís actually some sleet west of there along with some snow.
Correct. Should have put a sarcasm disclaimer.
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on November 12, 2018, 10:46:40 PM
Getting into mesoscale model time. I always have liked the RGEM while itís global usually takes a backseat. Anyways here is itís last hour of qpf and temps available at 48 hours.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181113/2a72a924524c05c574bbeaac89ada703.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 12, 2018, 10:54:53 PM
Officially have flakes flying in the burg.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 13, 2018, 05:32:51 AM
Officially have flakes flying in the burg.
congrats. Dyer.... u officially have 2 to 4 inches snow in your nws grid... wsw criteria   Small area nw if you. Got 3 to 5 inches forecasted ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 13, 2018, 06:17:39 AM
Woke up to white roof tops this morning. Good grief winter is getting a early start.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clay on November 13, 2018, 06:18:23 AM
MEG really ramping things up across West TN. Was surprised to see warning criteria totals across NW TN.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on November 13, 2018, 06:19:44 AM
Woke up to white roof tops this morning. Good grief winter is getting a early start.

Hope itís a sign of things to come for this upcoming winter, not having it happen now then torch for the rest of it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on November 13, 2018, 06:21:31 AM
congrats. Dyer.... u officially have 2 to 4 inches snow in your nws grid... wsw criteria   Small area nw if you. Got 3 to 5 inches forecasted ...

Start the thread lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 13, 2018, 06:28:59 AM
Euro last night. Might be time for Curt to pull the trigger on thread.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/3x3k4.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 13, 2018, 06:41:48 AM
Start the thread lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
i was going start it last nite after the euro ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 13, 2018, 07:03:03 AM
No snow here, but creeks are bursting at the seams after nearly 2 inches of rain (1.81") since yesterday morning.  Another soaking is coming by Wednesday night, and if we see any flakage in eastern areas, it will be Thursday night (but I'm not holding my breath).

Personally, after this week, I'll be glad to see the sun return on Friday. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 13, 2018, 08:08:40 AM
I was at Centennial Hospital all day yesterday as my Dad had successful aortic valve replacement surgery. I got home last night and seen these wild model runs. Looks like from neck of woods and points west and north especially have potential to see some winter weather. ULL can be tricky I hope Memphis can get in on some good action this early in the year and all of us for that matter. Looking forward to watching more runs today as I rest and give thanks for yesterdays great news. ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 13, 2018, 08:32:38 AM
I was at Centennial Hospital all day yesterday as my Dad had successful aortic valve replacement surgery. I got home last night and seen these wild model runs. Looks like from neck of woods and points west and north especially have potential to see some winter weather. ULL can be tricky I hope Memphis can get in on some good action this early in the year and all of us for that matter. Looking forward to watching more runs today as I rest and give thanks for yesterdays great news. ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

Glad the surgery was a success!! 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BALLPARK on November 13, 2018, 08:51:42 AM
I was at Centennial Hospital all day yesterday as my Dad had successful aortic valve replacement surgery. I got home last night and seen these wild model runs. Looks like from neck of woods and points west and north especially have potential to see some winter weather. ULL can be tricky I hope Memphis can get in on some good action this early in the year and all of us for that matter. Looking forward to watching more runs today as I rest and give thanks for yesterdays great news. ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Prayers for your Dads recovery. We got nice little coating last night. ::snowman:: Let it Snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 13, 2018, 09:09:12 AM
Interesting read. . .

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/photos/places-with-the-biggest-snowfall-in-history-in-every-state/ss-BBONLme?ocid=ientp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/photos/places-with-the-biggest-snowfall-in-history-in-every-state/ss-BBONLme?ocid=ientp)

Many of the nearby states (including TN) set their records during the infamous Blizzard of '93. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on November 13, 2018, 10:06:21 AM
I was at Centennial Hospital all day yesterday as my Dad had successful aortic valve replacement surgery. I got home last night and seen these wild model runs. Looks like from neck of woods and points west and north especially have potential to see some winter weather. ULL can be tricky I hope Memphis can get in on some good action this early in the year and all of us for that matter. Looking forward to watching more runs today as I rest and give thanks for yesterdays great news. ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Your Dad is in my prayers too Snowman!  Centennial is a nice hospital. 🙏🏻
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 13, 2018, 01:43:37 PM
Snow flurries for a few minutes earlier today, it sure is a cold one for sure. ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 13, 2018, 01:48:12 PM
I donít think we are gonna make it above freezing today. Currently 32.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on November 13, 2018, 02:48:52 PM
I donít think we are gonna make it above freezing today. Currently 32.

Wonder what are the dates for the earliest sub-freezing highs around here?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on November 13, 2018, 03:05:08 PM
I donít think we are gonna make it above freezing today. Currently 32.
Memphis Intl is at 34 and NWS Memphis still at 32.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clay on November 13, 2018, 04:12:04 PM
For those of you disappointed about missing out on these first two bouts of winter weather, Austin and College Station, TX reported snow flurries this morning.  ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 13, 2018, 04:39:22 PM
Don't know if it's been noticed, but western areas not the only ones that could see winter weather.  Parts of western North Carolina now under a winter storm watch for .25-.50" of ice accumulation Wednesday night.  Very unusual to see this much active winter weather in late autumn in our area.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on November 14, 2018, 02:09:58 PM
Don't know if it's been noticed, but western areas not the only ones that could see winter weather.  Parts of western North Carolina now under a winter storm watch for .25-.50" of ice accumulation Wednesday night.  Very unusual to see this much active winter weather in late autumn in our area.

Hopefully a sign of things to come for the winter!   ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: spanarkle08 on November 14, 2018, 02:13:27 PM
Sleet over to snow and boy is it snowing
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on November 14, 2018, 04:16:53 PM
The latest HRRR has shifted eastward with the snow and ice.  Now it shows accumulating snow in Hopkinsville, Clarksville, and even down into far NW Alabama.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 14, 2018, 05:36:56 PM
Hopefully a sign of things to come for the winter!   ::snowman::

Snow actually fell in parts of Louisiana--breaking records from over 60 years ago.  Snow in Louisiana in January is impressive.  It's only November.  Gotta be a good sign.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on November 16, 2018, 09:53:06 AM
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 16, 2018, 10:30:27 AM
(Attachment Link)

So true!!  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on November 19, 2018, 06:55:26 PM
We are slated to begin meteorological winter with well-below average temperatures stadewide.

Here's to a Memphis to Tri-Cities winter event next month.  ::fingerscrossed::  ::snowman::  8)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 20, 2018, 06:56:34 AM
We are slated to begin meteorological winter with well-below average temperatures stadewide.

Here's to a Memphis to Tri-Cities winter event next month.  ::fingerscrossed::  ::snowman::  8)

 ::applause:: ::fingerscrossed::

Looks like excellent weather for travelers on Wednesday.  I'll be up in Big Blue territory for Thanksgiving with the folks. 

After a mostly quiet holiday week, next weeks looks cold again with a potentially strong storm system moving by to the north sending some cold air our way, along with some flurries and snow showers.   By the end of next week, we'll have a good snow pack developing across the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley--essential for keeping cold Canadian air refrigerated as it travels south toward us. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on November 20, 2018, 08:47:17 AM
Interesting read. . .

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/photos/places-with-the-biggest-snowfall-in-history-in-every-state/ss-BBONLme?ocid=ientp (http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/photos/places-with-the-biggest-snowfall-in-history-in-every-state/ss-BBONLme?ocid=ientp)

Many of the nearby states (including TN) set their records during the infamous Blizzard of '93.
I read that over the weekend. Itís interesting, but I donít think itís right. Wasnít there a 50Ē+ report from the Mt Leconte caretaker from the superstorm? Maybe they are only considering towns and cities.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 20, 2018, 09:41:39 AM
I read that over the weekend. Itís interesting, but I donít think itís right. Wasnít there a 50Ē+ report from the Mt Leconte caretaker from the superstorm? Maybe they are only considering towns and cities.

Good question.  Maybe because it's a "one-day record."  Perhaps the 50" occurred over the whole storm duration from Friday to Sunday.   ::pondering::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on November 20, 2018, 10:57:21 AM
Good question.  Maybe because it's a "one-day record."  Perhaps the 50" occurred over the whole storm duration from Friday to Sunday.   ::pondering::

Some of the states surprised me... such as in parts of the Northeast and Upper Midwest, such as MA, MI, OH, WI, ND, etc... records "only" 2 foot something... when the record for TN is around the same ballpark.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 20, 2018, 11:40:45 AM
Some of the states surprised me... such as in parts of the Northeast and Upper Midwest, such as MA, MI, OH, WI, ND, etc... records "only" 2 foot something... when the record for TN is around the same ballpark.

Hmm, maybe we've got ourselves a bit of fake news here.   ;)

Perhaps we need an official fact checker on board.   ::coffee::
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on November 20, 2018, 12:41:39 PM
Hmm, maybe we've got ourselves a bit of fake news here.   ;)

Perhaps we need an official fact checker on board.   ::coffee::

Oh- I donít have any reason to doubt those figures per se. Itís just interesting is all. Other states have some 3 and 4 foot records and beyond. TN may not have the ďaverageĒ snowfall as some of those places, but at least our ďrecordsĒ can compete with some of the best of them.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 20, 2018, 02:06:20 PM
TN may not have the ďaverageĒ snowfall as some of those places, but at least our ďrecordsĒ can compete with some of the best of them.


(https://img0.etsystatic.com/175/0/11128535/il_fullxfull.1096754948_3r49.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on November 20, 2018, 06:54:29 PM
Some of the states surprised me... such as in parts of the Northeast and Upper Midwest, such as MA, MI, OH, WI, ND, etc... records "only" 2 foot something... when the record for TN is around the same ballpark.
Remember where the moisture source is. Since strong low pressure systems require a progressive pattern, there is a ceiling for how much precip can fall before the storm moves out. I can recall getting over 4Ē of rain from a gulf low here before. In theory that could produce 40+Ē of snow if the cold air is in the right place. Lake effect snow and western US ULLís donít abide by this principle, but I suspect 40-50Ē is only possible in the east with extreme orographic enhancement since the cold continental airmass required for snow will tend to eat up some of the moisture. The farther north you go, the less moisture is available.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 21, 2018, 07:20:04 AM
Freezing Fog advisory here this morning. Talk about a Jack Frost. It looks like it snowed.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on November 21, 2018, 07:45:36 AM
Freezing Fog advisory here this morning. Talk about a Jack Frost. It looks like it snowed.
Third morning with it here this year. That feels like a lot. Last Friday it was bad enough to cause a few wrecks on area bridges. MRX seems really shy about freezing fog advisories for some reason. I canít remember ever being under one despite its frequent occurrence here.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on November 21, 2018, 07:45:52 AM
Freezing Fog advisory here this morning. Talk about a Jack Frost. It looks like it snowed.

Pretty cool- seeing a little rime on the trees. That doesnít happen often here.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on November 21, 2018, 06:43:07 PM
Latest long-range EPS is quite the turkey is showing nearly coast to coast below average temperatures in the coming 1-2 weeks.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on November 24, 2018, 08:59:45 PM
The storm that kicks of Meteorological Winter (next weekend) may have some warm-sector features that may impact our area and especially areas to our south.   

We will have to watch this particular storm and see its exact track, strength, and ultimately the moisture return available for it.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 24, 2018, 11:04:50 PM
The storm that kicks of Meteorological Winter (next weekend) may have some warm-sector features that may impact our area and especially areas to our south.   

We will have to watch this particular storm and see its exact track, strength, and ultimately the moisture return available for it.
euro has been pretty bullish with this ..
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 25, 2018, 05:32:10 AM
Saw Chris Bailey's winter outlook for Kentucky this morning.  Calling for a much colder than normal winter (especially January & February), and above normal snowfall.  He also calls for several intense Arctic outbreaks, including one that will bring a -50 temperature drop in a 24 hour period.

https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/WKYT-Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Bailey-unveils-his-Winter-Weather-Forecast-500633191.html (https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/WKYT-Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Bailey-unveils-his-Winter-Weather-Forecast-500633191.html)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 25, 2018, 06:33:46 AM
Both gfs and euro picking up a severe weather threat next weekend... spc starting to hint on it later 4 to 8 day outlook
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on November 25, 2018, 09:26:53 AM
Both gfs and euro picking up a severe weather threat next weekend... spc starting to hint on it later 4 to 8 day outlook

First few days of December look torchy. This may be interesting for you all in West Tennessee.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 25, 2018, 09:51:06 AM
mean while... we have winter storm bruce... lol ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on November 25, 2018, 12:00:19 PM
mean while... we have winter storm bruce... lol ;)

Congrats Bruce on having a winter storm named after you.  Too bad it is a Panhandle Hooker and not a Miller A or a robust overrunning event but at least TWC felt the honor to name a storm after you. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on November 25, 2018, 01:25:59 PM
Regarding the current blizzard- Euro is just a boss. It called the further south move 3 days ago and never turned back. GFS was left scrambling at the last minute. Chicago is about to get crushed.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on November 25, 2018, 01:41:58 PM
I believe that this is the first time that part of N IL has been under a Blizzard Warning since the Groundhogs Day (2011) storm. 


Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on November 25, 2018, 02:04:52 PM
Interesting radar presentation out of Chicago.  It appears to be some big time bright banding as the stations are only reporting light snow.  Maybe its more of a graupel mix based on the warmer layer in place at the moment.  Its still always eye catching to see 50+ dbz in a winter system.

(https://i.imgur.com/F9D6ZBY.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on November 25, 2018, 03:25:19 PM
Interesting radar presentation out of Chicago.  It appears to be some big time bright banding as the stations are only reporting light snow.  Maybe its more of a graupel mix based on the warmer layer in place at the moment.  Its still always eye catching to see 50+ dbz in a winter system.

(https://i.imgur.com/F9D6ZBY.jpg)


Yep I think they had some sleet mixed in earlier but itís all snow now. Minus the euro, models were downplaying snow along the lake in Chicago. Now like like it they will get a foot along with 50 mph gusts overnight. Bet they go blizzard warning for the city.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 25, 2018, 04:38:43 PM

Yep I think they had some sleet mixed in earlier but itís all snow now. Minus the euro, models were downplaying snow along the lake in Chicago. Now like like it they will get a foot along with 50 mph gusts overnight. Bet they go blizzard warning for the city.
yeah... Chicago has gone from winter storm warning... to now a blizzard warning... 50mph gust sustained 35 mph... snow totals for most of the city now  projected  8 to 13 inches...  bruce means business...  to bad bruce couldn't been a Tennessee wide major winter storm... but  my name is just to early season for that... ;D   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on November 25, 2018, 04:43:29 PM
Good to see wintry precip events in fantasyland again.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on November 26, 2018, 06:20:45 AM
Both gfs and euro picking up a severe weather threat next weekend... spc starting to hint on it later 4 to 8 day outlook
Major outdoor event in Memphis Saturday.  It's St. Jude Memphis Marathon Weekend.  The race will go unless there's severe weather during the race window.

The temperature and humidity will play a role.  The worst case, other than severe weather during the heart of the event, would be pre-frontal breaks in cloud cover that keep immediate rain away and send temps soaring.  This could send wet bulb global temperatures (WBGT) past 70 and set the stage for high heat stress conditions. This would put it in Category 4 for a marathon.

Last year, temps did soar but did so in much drier air, which allowed for adequate cooling to avoid such stress.

Ironically, the only event cancelation to date for St. Jude was in 2013 (for an ice storm). Running a marathon is- to say the least--is to tame a fickle beast.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on November 26, 2018, 06:29:19 AM
There's a surprising amount of wind as this front moves into/through East TN this morning (insert TWC coverage joke here).  It was howling overnight and is blowing enough this morning that we've already had the power flicker.  With the heavy clouds, winds, and cold air moving in it's as ugly a morning as we've seen here in a while.  On a good note, the wind was oriented in the right direction to blow most of the leaves in my backyard into a back corner of the fence, so there's that.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on November 26, 2018, 07:59:26 AM
Until our current season (fall) ends we should keep current weather discussion in the appropriate thread.  Letís lewve this thread to the fantasy extreme long range models for now :)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on November 26, 2018, 12:03:47 PM
yeah... Chicago has gone from winter storm warning... to now a blizzard warning... 50mph gust sustained 35 mph... snow totals for most of the city now  projected  8 to 13 inches...  bruce means business...  to bad bruce couldn't been a Tennessee wide major winter storm... but  my name is just to early season for that... ;D

Pssh, your puny winter storm is nothing.  Michael (My actual name btw) was the real deal this year, and more importantly an actual legitimately named storm.   ;D ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 26, 2018, 12:09:57 PM
 >:D
Pssh, your puny winter storm is nothing.  Michael (My actual name btw) was the real deal this year, and more importantly an actual legitimately named storm.   ;D ::rofl::
>:D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on November 26, 2018, 02:02:33 PM
Until our current season (fall) ends we should keep current weather discussion in the appropriate thread.  Letís lewve this thread to the fantasy extreme long range models for now :)

On Saturday, it will be meteorological winter, so at least we won't have to wait much longer before we retire the Fall thread.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 27, 2018, 11:28:07 AM
There's a surprising amount of wind as this front moves into/through East TN this morning (insert TWC coverage joke here).  It was howling overnight and is blowing enough this morning that we've already had the power flicker.  With the heavy clouds, winds, and cold air moving in it's as ugly a morning as we've seen here in a while.  On a good note, the wind was oriented in the right direction to blow most of the leaves in my backyard into a back corner of the fence, so there's that.

The wind howled at home all day yesterday.  I was on my last day of vacation, and got to enjoy the leaves blowing all over the place.  The only trees left with any leafage are the red oaks.  Even though the leaves are black now, they're still clinging on the trees.  Sometimes they linger half of the winter before falling.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 27, 2018, 12:03:49 PM
12z gfs trying to give us a nice over running event ... sort fantasy land ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on November 27, 2018, 02:07:24 PM
NWS Has just issued a SWS for Central Sullivan County in northeast TN (I'm in Kingsport). A nice light band of persistent light snow has been hanging around all day. SWS for Bluff City, Blountville, Tri-Cities Airport areas for up to 1". Been snowing here in Kingsport off and on all day. Nice to see.  :)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on November 27, 2018, 03:18:53 PM
Spitting flurries in Knoxville right now
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 27, 2018, 03:45:53 PM
Snow is coming down at a good clip after I got home from work.  Very dark sky, wind, and the snow falling sideways makes it feel more like a convective snow shower.  Decent radar returns showing up as well.


(http://i68.tinypic.com/29oh2l1.gif)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on November 27, 2018, 03:54:51 PM
I suspect the high Smokies might wring out some decent accumulations for that activity.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on November 27, 2018, 04:07:42 PM
I suspect the high Smokies might wring out some decent accumulations for that activity.

I work with a gentleman here in Kingsport that lives in Shady Valley (just west of Mountain City) and he has snow on the ground and snowing at his house. He's probably in the 2800 ft elevation range.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 27, 2018, 04:17:07 PM
This is impressive cold for November.  We're down to 28, currently, and only got up to 33 today (35 in Knoxville).  We're going down to the lower 20's tonight.  Teens on the Plateau, expected.

WBIR meteorologist Todd Howell said this evening that we've only been this cold in November 5 times before in the last 60 years (for a daytime high & average daily temp).  That's nothing to sneeze at (unless this weather makes you sick).

Post Merge: November 27, 2018, 04:26:10 PM
The snow "bursts" are definitely convective in nature--as seen in this radar clip.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/2hhpzd3.gif)

The snow showers are "blowing up" and moving along the same path.  Strangely, they are in the same area as this morning's snow, as if there is some sort of boundary there assisting lift.  Whatever the cause, the deck and roof are both covered with snow again.  Keep it comin!

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 27, 2018, 05:21:36 PM
Canít believe no one has mentioned todays 12z GFS and CMC.  It canít be right though. They are showing a statewide snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 27, 2018, 06:00:17 PM
Canít believe no one has mentioned todays 12z GFS and CMC.  It canít be right though. They are showing a statewide snow.
i. Did mention it...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on November 27, 2018, 06:00:21 PM
Canít believe no one has mentioned todays 12z GFS and CMC.  It canít be right though. They are showing a statewide snow.

Not biting on it until it shows up for a few more runs.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Skillsweather on November 27, 2018, 06:57:03 PM
Canít believe no one has mentioned todays 12z GFS and CMC.  It canít be right though. They are showing a statewide snow.
Wow good eye. In before you get hammered and we get screwed. Lol Your area always seems to do good (most of the time).
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 27, 2018, 07:16:19 PM
Wow good eye. In before you get hammered and we get screwed. Lol Your area always seems to do good (most of the time).
thanx...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Vols1 on November 27, 2018, 07:34:26 PM
When are the models saying snow?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 27, 2018, 07:42:48 PM
When are the models saying snow?
7. Th. 9th December area appears to be first time frame watch... still but out there...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 27, 2018, 07:43:58 PM
i. Did mention it...
Missed it somehow.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Skillsweather on November 27, 2018, 08:59:06 PM
thanx...
haha you know im messing Bruce. I seen your post earlier at work. Pumped me up for the late nights watching out the window for the first flakes! :)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on November 27, 2018, 09:08:26 PM
Well, since the prospect of a Little Ice Age due to a high likelihood of a grand solar minimum and a weakening of the AMOC is now in the daily news, I finally found a definitive source on what really matters to us and it looks like a slice of climatic heaven (if only) (except, surprise, we kind of get screwed)...

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181128/fcb01840fa2d7ca737fb3c3536fb3617.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181128/8596131db74194a9be1aff29b3806f00.jpg)

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on November 28, 2018, 07:55:00 AM
So pretty much in a "Day After Tomorrow" situation the I-44 corridor still gets hit at times while we sit and watch. 

There also appears to be a permanent glacier that extends down to the Dakotas because how else can your average temperatures change a whole 30 degrees by going from one county to another.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 28, 2018, 08:38:30 AM
34-46" of snow in an average winter??   And cool summers to boot?   I'll take it and run. 

Of course, there might be a problem with food supply by then.  No fun watching it snow on an empty stomach!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 28, 2018, 09:01:46 AM
Last nite. 0z euro ... ever so close at day ten.... were it always looks good....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on November 28, 2018, 09:40:57 AM
Well, since the prospect of a Little Ice Age due to a high likelihood of a grand solar minimum and a weakening of the AMOC is now in the daily news, I finally found a definitive source on what really matters to us and it looks like a slice of climatic heaven (if only) (except, surprise, we kind of get screwed)...

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181128/fcb01840fa2d7ca737fb3c3536fb3617.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181128/8596131db74194a9be1aff29b3806f00.jpg)

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

If this is the climate you want, then move to Nunavut.  ::flag::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 28, 2018, 10:56:30 AM
Storm still there on 12z gfs for the 9th and 10th. Frozen preip shield cuts through Tennessee.  Most of west and middle tn get in one some action but the frozen precip-liquid precip line is right on us. Still way out there, but I like the 8th-10th time frame. I think that's our next best chance anyway. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 28, 2018, 12:19:03 PM
8-14 day outlook shows blue coast to coast:

(http://i68.tinypic.com/2lcoi6u.gif)

The warm spell this weekend is not a long burning torch. 

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 28, 2018, 12:27:36 PM
8-14 day outlook shows blue coast to coast:

(http://i68.tinypic.com/2lcoi6u.gif)

The warm spell this weekend is not a long burning torch.
think I may go to Orlando Florida for that week. Lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on November 28, 2018, 06:54:46 PM
(http://i66.tinypic.com/kbeh4i.png)

This is what our El-Nino currently looks like.  It is a nice central-based El-Nino.  It is very similar in strength and orientation to 2006-07.  There is a big difference in the Gulf of Alaska (just below Alaska) from now till then if you are worried about a repeat of 2006-07 which I consider a pretty underwhelming winter.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/30n81vc.png)

Here is this time in November 2006 for comparison.   
 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on November 28, 2018, 10:19:43 PM
So pretty much in a "Day After Tomorrow" situation the I-44 corridor still gets hit at times while we sit and watch. 

There also appears to be a permanent glacier that extends down to the Dakotas because how else can your average temperatures change a whole 30 degrees by going from one county to another.
Notice that we sit in a relative snow hole.   Too warm for summer snow, too fast from the Gulf for deep winter snows.

I tell ya, it's the same ole thing!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on November 28, 2018, 10:21:18 PM
34-46" of snow in an average winter??   And cool summers to boot?   I'll take it and run. 

Of course, there might be a problem with food supply by then.  No fun watching it snow on an empty stomach!
Well, I can skin a buck, I can run a trot line, a country boy can survive.

I guess we'll be able to grow wheat!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mempho on November 28, 2018, 10:22:46 PM
If this is the climate you want, then move to Nunavut.  ::flag::
I don't like the sun to be up that long plus there's no-uh - people up there.

You're right, though, we need more snow.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 29, 2018, 07:20:33 AM
(http://i66.tinypic.com/kbeh4i.png)

This is what our El-Nino currently looks like.  It is a nice central-based El-Nino.  It is very similar in strength and orientation to 2006-07.  There is a big difference in the Gulf of Alaska (just below Alaska) from now till then if you are worried about a repeat of 2006-07 which I consider a pretty underwhelming winter.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/30n81vc.png)

Here is this time in November 2006 for comparison.   
 

Very good illustration of how you need more than one puzzle piece to put together a good winter picture.  I think the warm "blob" (below Alaska) will play a huge role in this winter, as it did in previous cold winters since '13.  It will be interesting to see how it plays out.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 29, 2018, 07:57:58 AM
Pacific region donít get straightened out... what cold we see this winter going pretty much transient...  pattern going be progressive ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on November 29, 2018, 11:04:23 AM
Pacific region donít get straightened out... what cold we see this winter going pretty much transient...  pattern going be progressive ...


Gosh well I guess itís a good thing itís only November 29th ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 29, 2018, 11:18:30 AM

Gosh well I guess itís a good thing itís only November 29th ;)
thats what my I phone has ... November 29th. Today...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on November 29, 2018, 11:31:01 AM
Pacific region donít get straightened out... what cold we see this winter going pretty much transient...  pattern going be progressive ...

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: David on November 29, 2018, 01:20:10 PM
(Attachment Link)

HAHA
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: joemomma on November 29, 2018, 03:11:50 PM
It's like reading Christopher Walken.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on November 29, 2018, 04:26:33 PM
(Attachment Link)
::rofl:: ::rofl:: ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on November 29, 2018, 05:15:07 PM
thats what my I phone has ... November 29th. Today...

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181129/5193e0319cf78c49f9ff2895a7af9e6d.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on November 29, 2018, 05:39:51 PM
It's like reading Christopher Walken.

Or Ozzy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on November 29, 2018, 06:20:01 PM
yonder.. Big snow Comin.. ? i seen active pattern ... big trough coming thru earl.y dec. like 4th thru 7th & more chance s on 10th 11th . .... cash in hopeful.. ly
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 29, 2018, 06:28:20 PM
yonder.. Big snow Comin.. ? i seen active pattern ... big trough coming thru earl.y dec. like 4th thru 7th & more chance s on 10th 11th . .... cash in hopeful.. ly
euro control... wallops the midsouth...in that period... 10  to 12 inches ::snowman::

Post Merge: November 29, 2018, 06:30:28 PM
Or Ozzy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
because im going off the rails on a crazy train.... ::guitar::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on November 29, 2018, 06:30:44 PM
euro control... wallops the midsouth...in that period... 10  to 12 inches ::snowman::

east to. West blockbuster storm  ::guitar::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 29, 2018, 07:16:46 PM
Lawd have mercy.  We'll all be spekin Bruce come end o this winter.  ::forecast::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Volduff64 on November 29, 2018, 11:01:33 PM
18 giveith 0 takeith  ::cliff::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on November 30, 2018, 07:13:55 AM
18 giveith 0 takeith  ::cliff::

Euro runs at 18z?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 30, 2018, 07:49:31 AM
Euro runs at 18z?
he is talking bout the gfs. 18z gfs was a snow storm for us... 0z gfs says not so fast my friend ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on November 30, 2018, 08:03:13 AM
he is talking bout the gfs. 18z gfs was a snow storm for us... 0z gfs says not so fast my friend ...

Ahh, I thought I remembered reading the Euro was thinking about running in off hours. Maybe it was Maue tweeting about it.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on November 30, 2018, 11:35:26 AM
Looks kind of I-44ey. Me no likey.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on November 30, 2018, 12:04:24 PM
I've not been paying that much attention to the model madness yet.  Even in good winters, early December is...well...early for us.  Storm tracks usually aren't favorable for us to see winter weather this far east and south.  Look toward mid/late December. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 30, 2018, 01:09:29 PM
Havenít. Got the good euro maps. But looks interesting later next week ... looks sleety  for some Mid-South ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on November 30, 2018, 01:24:38 PM
That 12z Euro run...it moved SE on next weekend's system. It intensified it too. ::popcorn::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on November 30, 2018, 04:32:06 PM
The strength of the high pressure and position will be key as the system doesn't look like it will be bringing a lot of cold air with it.

Of course being 8 days out one can expect a variety of modeled tracks, solutions, joys, and disappointments because that is what model watching is all about. 

If you want to see winter weather in December we need this system to cash in because things look to relax in a big way starting Mid-December and probably lasting through the Holidays.  Before we deal with a possibly favorable to very-favorable January-February we will have to deal with our scheduled El-Nino December weather.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 30, 2018, 05:31:21 PM
I believe Iíll pass.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/257gkyv.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 30, 2018, 06:14:51 PM
Come on dyer I know your ready for another round. ::popcorn:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on November 30, 2018, 07:15:55 PM
Suprise no one posted the 18zgfs... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: WXHD on November 30, 2018, 07:20:24 PM
Sorry to throw in the towel so early. But, Iím ready for spring. No doubt Iíll get amped at every opportunity and watch the models. Love my snow. Just starting to hate bitter fruitless days.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: EastTNWX on November 30, 2018, 09:39:06 PM
Suprise no one posted the 18zgfs... lol

It looks good for some action!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 01, 2018, 06:52:57 AM
Per MRX:

Quote
Dry weather and gradual warming temperatures will take place
Wednesday night through Friday as the region gets ready for the next
cold front. It will be interesting to watch this system over the
next several days. Today`s longer range forecasts indicate the
possibility of a significant winter storm by the end of next
weekend. Needless to say, we will keep an eye on how this develops
over the next several days.
     ::popcorn::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 01, 2018, 06:59:06 AM
Per MRX:
     ::popcorn::
MEG ...  going with all rain   over this end state... yuck...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 01, 2018, 07:02:39 AM
Euro not our friend this morning.  It shows a more elevation based winter event.  Plateau gets snow, and the mountains.  Western NC gets crushed.  We're on the wrong side of the mountains.   ::shrug::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 01, 2018, 07:46:27 AM
Euro not our friend this morning.  It shows a more elevation based winter event.  Plateau gets snow, and the mountains.  Western NC gets crushed.  We're on the wrong side of the mountains.   ::shrug::
7-8 days out...I like that weíre not in the bullseye. Weíre in the vicinity, and thatís all we need right now. For MRX to mention the potential of a Winter Storm a week out, itís got some serious potential. Theyíre typically the most conservative office in the state. Usually the last to issue watches/warnings, waiting until 2-3 days out to mention any winter weather potential and usually do it in a pessimistic fashion lol.

This has become something worth watching. Who knows, maybe weíll cash in big.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: cgauxknox on December 01, 2018, 08:27:25 AM
I have to be back and forth from Knoxville to Bristol for work next Saturday, so that works in our favor for a heavy hitting winter storm in the 7 day outlook.  I'll take what I can get and maybe if it comes in early enough I'll be able to get a free pass.  ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 01, 2018, 08:42:34 AM
I'm sitting back on this one. Has the look of an I-44 knockout storm that will dump snow on OKC, Tulsa, KC, Des Moines and Chicago. Ice for STL, Paducah, Little Rock and the eastern side of the Appalachians in NC.

I'd prefer to be a surprised pessimist. We shall see.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 01, 2018, 09:25:37 AM
El NiŮo argues for a further south track. Climatology argues for northern. Truth is somewhere in the middle most likely.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 01, 2018, 03:01:29 PM
12z Euro. My front yard does good.  ::rofl::

(http://i63.tinypic.com/308k5ug.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 01, 2018, 03:36:52 PM
This storm
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 01, 2018, 03:49:57 PM
12z Euro. My front yard does good.  ::rofl::

(http://i63.tinypic.com/308k5ug.jpg)

If we have a track like this, Iíd be nervous for the entirety of the event 😂.

Speaking of close calls, KY has been the sweet spot for a few years now. Given this look they would be sitting pretty.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 01, 2018, 06:41:21 PM
I wonder if there are any similarities to the upcoming pattern and the Dec 4th-5th 2002 storm.  The modeled storm setup looks very much like that event.  Plus 2002-03 is an analog for this winter as well.   

Post Merge: December 01, 2018, 07:26:45 PM
Some of the locations that were impacted by last weekends blizzard were impacted by tornadoes today.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 02, 2018, 09:19:18 AM
You know it's going to be a warm winter day when it's already 60 by 10:00 a.m.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on December 02, 2018, 09:41:22 AM
Currently, northern parts of Arkansas and Tennessee look good for some winter weather next weekend and if the southward trend continues on the Euro the Memphis metro may be in play.

0Z Euro
(https://i.imgur.com/3fpKWu1.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 02, 2018, 09:47:06 AM
I couldn't believe nobody had the Euro up when I got up this morning but Clint took care of it in short order. Now just a little more jog southeast and many more would be in that game. Still aways out but I am beginning to think at least some on this board are going to get in on some winter action next weekend.  ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 02, 2018, 10:00:54 AM
I couldn't believe nobody had the Euro up when I got up this morning but Clint took care of it in short order. Now just a little more jog southeast and many more would be in that game. Still aways out but I am beginning to think at least some on this board are going to get in on some winter action next weekend.  ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

While hopeful, I'm afraid Climatology will win out and we see a shift northward. Hope I'm wrong. I'm ready to see some of the white stuff.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 02, 2018, 10:24:13 AM
Currently, northern parts of Arkansas and Tennessee look good for some winter weather next weekend and if the southward trend continues on the Euro the Memphis metro may be in play.

0Z Euro
(https://i.imgur.com/3fpKWu1.png)

Wow, southern Knox Co gets a dusting, while northern Knox gets over 4."  If the trend continues there's going to be a sharp gradient/cut-off in snow amounts.  The rain/snow line will be right on top of us, and some may see heavy snow, while rain is falling 10 miles away.  And thanks to a cold wedge, parts of northeast GA and upstate SC may see more snow than southern TN.

This system has great potential for winter fun and heartbreak. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 02, 2018, 10:25:43 AM
Oh Canada!!!

(http://i67.tinypic.com/aktjph.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BALLPARK on December 02, 2018, 10:35:20 AM
It would sure be nice to look at 6-12 inches for next weekend but I will be common about it. ::faint:: ::faint:: ::faint::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Skillsweather on December 02, 2018, 10:37:25 AM
Oh Canada!!!

(http://i67.tinypic.com/aktjph.jpg)
ill be honest I mean yeah its december I will take that. But if that map verified i would hate mother nature so freaking much. Look at that nice heavy snow amount literally stop at the lebanon line haha
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 02, 2018, 11:00:24 AM
12Z GFS has a horseshoe of accumulating snow in northwest TN, KY and back down into northeast TN.  Far northeast TN, VA, and western NC get hammered. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 02, 2018, 11:10:22 AM
12Z GFS has a horseshoe of accumulating snow in northwest TN, KY and back down into northeast TN.  Far northeast TN, VA, and western NC get hammered.

I would assume 7:1 ratios if this materialised. Temperatures will be above freezing statewide. 1-3 deg C / 33-38 deg F.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 02, 2018, 11:17:43 AM
12Z GFS has a horseshoe of accumulating snow in northwest TN, KY and back down into northeast TN.  Far northeast TN, VA, and western NC get hammered.

I live in NE Hamblen County and work in Kingsport. I hope we get something, hopefully 6"+.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on December 02, 2018, 11:21:55 AM
It can happen. This was Dec 10, 2010.(http://i68.tinypic.com/2ik5gs0.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 02, 2018, 11:26:03 AM
The CMC is SO close to a big event for a lot of TN. Congrats parts of west/western middle TN!

[attachimg=1][attachimg=2]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Skillsweather on December 02, 2018, 11:27:15 AM
imagine if this event happens and ends up being our only snow this winter. Lol That would honestly be so funny in a way because supposedly this winter should be warm December with better odds in January and February.
Edit. I can see that yellow being sleet/snow that low pressure is so far south.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 02, 2018, 12:24:14 PM
Gfs came in colder and further south. Trends. Little Rock northward to the MO border gets absolutely pummeled.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 02, 2018, 12:34:51 PM
Euro is sounding like it is coming in south as well. Actually to far south, but I like it there this far out. LOL! ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 02, 2018, 01:07:15 PM
Euro  ::lookaround::


(http://i65.tinypic.com/11vlhtw.jpg)

New GFS. Snow for all  ::rofl::

(http://i63.tinypic.com/1q1ykz.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Skillsweather on December 02, 2018, 01:20:57 PM
Literally we want somewhere in the middle. Thats so rare for us. This is the one i feel it lmao.  ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 02, 2018, 01:30:44 PM
Southward seems the trend.  Like Curt said, El Nino argues for a southward shift.  As long as it doesn't shift clear out into the Gulf.

Amazing to be tracking something this early.  Hopefully, a sign of things to come!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 02, 2018, 01:30:53 PM
Go home Euro, your drunk.

Post Merge: December 02, 2018, 01:31:58 PM
Southward seems the trend.  Like Curt said, El Nino argues for a southward shift.  As long as it doesn't shift clear out into the Gulf.

Amazing to be tracking something this early.  Hopefully, a sign of things to come!

Yes, let's repeat these Lows tracking south of us about a month from now.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 02, 2018, 01:33:06 PM
Euro  ::lookaround::


(http://i65.tinypic.com/11vlhtw.jpg)

New GFS. Snow for all  ::rofl::

(http://i63.tinypic.com/1q1ykz.jpg)

Wow, that Euro is something freaky!  That would be historic + for the northern Gulf states and upstate SC.

Post Merge: December 02, 2018, 01:36:06 PM
Meanwhile, I've got my windows open today airing out the house one last time--at 71 degrees!  All the while tracking cold and snow coming by weeks end.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 02, 2018, 01:54:05 PM
I like the general trend going south the last several runs overall on all models. You almost know there will probably be a northern shift as we get closer. But the overall signal is there and at least parts of Tennessee could be impacted in a few different scenarios, from a I-40 north solution to a south of I-40 solution or the perfect track where we all get in the action. It's going to be another fun week of tracking, I have a feeling at the very least some parts of the state could get some wintry weather and quite possible much more. Good vibes for all! ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 02, 2018, 01:54:49 PM
Euro continues the southward trend along with all other modeling. Wonder if we wonít be dealing with suppression soon. That run is almost identical to the snow storm in January 2011

Looked at the euro control. Snowfall map is identical to the euro ops. It basically shears out past West TN while Arkansas is crushed. The Hp to the north is much stronger thus is fighting dry air as it tries to come out of the southern plains into the mid south. Seen this several times before and in an extreme case January 2000. It took the snow band 12 hours to get to Memphis from LR.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: memphishogfan on December 02, 2018, 02:03:27 PM
Yíall boys and girls keep this snow in Tennessee this time around please. Weíve got my daughters 3rd birthday party in Jonesboro Saturday morning and I really donít want to have to cancel.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 02, 2018, 02:06:14 PM
I bet the NC posters on southern weather are freaking out now since itís been showing a snow bonanza for runs now showing zilch
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 02, 2018, 02:19:58 PM
A big snowstorm going south of us will never be okay with me. Never.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 02, 2018, 02:23:51 PM
At this point we are as much in the game as anybody. I would rather be needing it too come north at this point than south. These deals almost always seem to trend north in the end. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 02, 2018, 02:27:31 PM
At this point we are as much in the game as anybody. I would rather be needing it too come north at this point than south. These deals almost always seem to trend north in the end. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Until they donít and Huntsville gets a nice 6-8Ē snow and we get zilch.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on December 02, 2018, 02:46:27 PM
Yíall boys and girls keep this snow in Tennessee this time around please. Weíve got my daughters 3rd birthday party in Jonesboro Saturday morning and I really donít want to have to cancel.

It looks to pound Jonesboro......
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Skillsweather on December 02, 2018, 02:48:33 PM
Yeah i was more ok with it going way north vs barely south. But so far i think we are ok. Just ease north slightly and that puts us all in. I think its slightly to far south for north of 40 to be worry free. Again this is a week away. Come mid week we could be all screwed lol. Im scared of what Curt mentioned but im also scared of it going to far north. So im just going to accept whatever happens happens and be happy for those that do get the snow as its early December not Late February so we all still have lots more chances to get a snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 02, 2018, 02:59:56 PM
Slight chance of a wintry mix for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for NE TN, high elevations, and the Cumberland Plateau.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 02, 2018, 03:41:43 PM
Until they donít and Huntsville gets a nice 6-8Ē snow and we get zilch.
No doubt if we were 2 or 3 days out and it was showing that I would be worried for I-40 north for sure. Right now, it's more watching to see which way it trends the next few days. Still lots of possibilities. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Skillsweather on December 02, 2018, 03:43:56 PM
The real area that needs to worry is Kentucky. They was the sweet spot like yesterday? Like the whole state was hit good now its zilch for all of them it seems pretty much. Depends a lot on how strong the high pressure is and the precip spread of the Low.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 02, 2018, 04:00:31 PM
climo... will eventually come in to play here... still say the bootheel mo... ne Arkansas... and western Kentucky be iin the sweep spot...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 02, 2018, 04:05:40 PM
climo... will eventually come in to play here... still say the bootheel mo... ne Arkansas... and western Kentucky be iin the sweep spot...
That tracks happens a lot but I still think west and northwest middle tn stand a good chance at the moment. But your right I would still bank on missing a little to the north and west than south of us at this point. Just from a climo perspective you have to worry about it going north more at this stage still, IMHO. But like Seinfeld said you still got to like our chances. LOL! ::popcorn:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 02, 2018, 04:23:53 PM
climo... will eventually come in to play here... still say the bootheel mo... ne Arkansas... and western Kentucky be iin the sweep spot...

Bruce, I must respectfully ask: Why do you write like this? Asking for a friend   ::pondering::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 02, 2018, 04:29:50 PM
The real area that needs to worry is Kentucky. They was the sweet spot like yesterday? Like the whole state was hit good now its zilch for all of them it seems pretty much. Depends a lot on how strong the high pressure is and the precip spread of the Low.

The sweet spot will dance around for another ~ 5 days. Heck, we should know from experience that even a day before the event things can change in a big way.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: SKEW-TIM on December 02, 2018, 05:18:07 PM
 ::coffee::Already peaking interest here in NC 🤩
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on December 02, 2018, 05:28:07 PM
::coffee::Already peaking interest here in NC 🤩

Yea, the CAD region of NC looks really good right now. Good Luck!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 02, 2018, 05:34:56 PM
I know we still have about 10-11 more Euro updates until the system is here, but the latest Euro Ensemble Mean is 2-4" STATEWIDE.  ::guitar::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on December 02, 2018, 06:12:25 PM
Wake me up in 5 days when the clown map show is over
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 02, 2018, 06:31:19 PM
Wake me up in 5 days when the clown map show is over
thats the fun part of it.... weather itís heartbreak or getting crushed.... it gets me through the winter .... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 02, 2018, 06:45:19 PM
18z GEFS anyone?  ::yum::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Skillsweather on December 02, 2018, 06:56:51 PM
18z GEFS anyone?  ::yum::
Lol them are so all over the place. Yikes.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 02, 2018, 07:19:27 PM
18z GEFS anyone?  ::yum::


Thanks for posting.  Looks like someone between the Ohio and Tennessee Rivers will see snow next weekend.  Hopefully, we'll have a better idea who by Wednesday.  Or not.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on December 02, 2018, 07:41:46 PM
Not getting excited about this system until the Euro still has the storm on the Tuesday night run. It's all very interesting though.  ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 02, 2018, 08:36:52 PM
The Tuesday night into Wednesday little system is looking more and more positive for things up here on the Rim and Plateau.

Also wouldnít be shocked to see other locations in middle TN see some flakes out of this too.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on December 02, 2018, 09:46:15 PM
Just catching up after a busy weekend... I know when a thread spans multiple pages from posts on the same day, something is up. lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BALLPARK on December 02, 2018, 09:53:54 PM
Storm looks good for the smokie mountains.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 02, 2018, 11:38:33 PM
The new model taking the gfs ... just put down 15 inches from Little Rock to west Memphis... most West Tennessee close to 10 inches ... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 02, 2018, 11:54:56 PM
Yep most of west and some of middle would get walloped it that verified. And parts of east tn as well. The euro is coming in looking good for west and middle tn north of I-40 still a lot can change. East Tn looks good also. But it's still early in the game but it's nice to see the storm signal still there.  ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 05:19:27 AM
Euro is generous to upper middle TN/plateau, and gives east TN from Knoxville east something to write home about.  Tri-Cities gets a winter wallop. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 03, 2018, 05:40:17 AM
The new GFS is much more favorable for us in terms of winter weather than the old guard.

[attachimg=1][attachimg=2][attachimg=3]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Skillsweather on December 03, 2018, 05:58:21 AM
That low keeps going further south.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 03, 2018, 06:12:23 AM
Yes. Iíll cash the 0z Euro please. Lol. Over a foot IMBY. And drops about 20 inches in Kingsport. Reminiscent of 93 March totals lol. Of course, this is very clownish. But, Iím growing more confident weíll see a white ground this weekend. How much is long yet to be determined.

I aint even looked at GFS. The Euro was enough for me right now lol.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 06:47:22 AM
The new GFS is much more favorable for us in terms of winter weather than the old guard.

(Attachment Link) (Attachment Link) (Attachment Link)

The two versions are so far apart it's like looking at two completely different models.  The new gives Tennessee snow from west to east.  And a lot of it.  The old version says, "meh."  Hope the new kicks the old to the curb. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 03, 2018, 06:50:49 AM
This will be a good test for the new GFS in the mid range. Consistently showing way more snow for Tennessee.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/3450z6o.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 03, 2018, 06:58:53 AM
Oz euro thumps Oklahoma To parts of Arkansas ... but looks like it sheared out over much midsouth with to much northern stream... then phases again east of us hammers parts East Tennessee and western two thirds of North Carolina... go figure
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 07:21:33 AM
This will be a good test for the new GFS in the mid range. Consistently showing way more snow for Tennessee.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/3450z6o.jpg)

One thing that concerns me about that run of V3 is the heavy snow in South Carolina--almost to the coast.  That's not impossible, but on December 8th?  Climatology argues against that.  If it happens, this storm is one for the history books.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on December 03, 2018, 07:34:16 AM
One thing that concerns me about that run of V3 is the heavy snow in South Carolina--almost to the coast.  That's not impossible, but on December 8th?  Climatology argues against that.  If it happens, this storm is one for the history books.
North ATL metro got a foot of snow about this time last year. Never say never.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 03, 2018, 08:07:08 AM
Hate be down on the snow chances.  But think weíre slowly loosing it for much west middle Tennessee... Epps wasnít as good... lots of itís members has most Tennessee getting much of anything  .... think last nights euro started a trend. Best part  itís still early December ... but we do look to warm up after this system for while ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 08:36:29 AM
Best part  itís still early December ... but we do look to warm up after this system for while ....

Exactly.  I've been wary of this system anyway.  I don't expect a lot in December, but as Charles said, it's painful to lose a system to our south, especially in early December.  I rather lose it to the northwest trend. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 03, 2018, 08:37:11 AM
Hate be down on the snow chances.  But think weíre slowly loosing it for much west middle Tennessee... Epps wasnít as good... lots of itís members has most Tennessee getting much of anything  .... think last nights euro started a trend. Best part  itís still early December ... but we do look to warm up after this system for while ....

None of us can make any serious calls until NAM gets within range. I think by Thursday we will know where the low will be.

Thankfully, this isn't one of those clippers that just vanishes in the model runs. Plenty of Gulf moisture to fuel this one. We just have to hope the low is well to the south.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on December 03, 2018, 08:54:54 AM
The Tuesday night into Wednesday little system is looking more and more positive for things up here on the Rim and Plateau.

Also wouldnít be shocked to see other locations in middle TN see some flakes out of this too.

Most of the short range/hi res models are now picking up on the snow showers from late this evening all the way into Wednesday morning. Some models even showing some in non-favored areas off of the Plateau/mountains. Looks like for those of us not in favored areas we'll have to hope there is some precip around Tuesday night when temps might allow for minor accumulations. Will be something to watch while we model gaze at the weekend.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on December 03, 2018, 08:59:06 AM
We've seen ULLs dump snow as far down as south MS and LA in early December in recent years. It does appear we have a system to watch for someone later this week.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 09:10:15 AM
North ATL metro got a foot of snow about this time last year. Never say never.

Oh, it's very possible.  Just not typical. 

Post Merge: December 03, 2018, 09:37:07 AM
We've seen ULLs dump snow as far down as south MS and LA in early December in recent years. It does appear we have a system to watch for someone later this week.

If it goes that-a-way, I won't begrudge the south for getting it again.  It is Christmas, after all.  The season of sharing.    ;D

I will just change the channel if it shows up in the nightly news.     ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 03, 2018, 09:49:19 AM
Most of the short range/hi res models are now picking up on the snow showers from late this evening all the way into Wednesday morning. Some models even showing some in non-favored areas off of the Plateau/mountains. Looks like for those of us not in favored areas we'll have to hope there is some precip around Tuesday night when temps might allow for minor accumulations. Will be something to watch while we model gaze at the weekend.

Todayís 12z 3km NAM run was the best to highlight this early week snow flurry/shower ďeventĒ.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Greyhound on December 03, 2018, 10:07:39 AM
Storm looks good for the smokie mountains.

SMOKY Mountains
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 03, 2018, 10:16:39 AM
And the old guard 12z GFS comes in further south. Mainly an I-40 south event. Big difference from the 0z run.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 03, 2018, 11:09:24 AM
CMC. Just hammers west Kentucky ... foot in many spots ... 4 to 6 for parts west tennessee
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 03, 2018, 11:12:01 AM
SMOKY SMOKEY Mountains

FTFY.   ;D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 03, 2018, 11:21:26 AM
The new 12z GFS is something...[attachimg=1][attachimg=2][attachimg=3]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on December 03, 2018, 11:33:08 AM
I'm supposed to be running a half marathon in Pigeon Forge Sunday morning. If it falls as snow it will be cancelled which sucks, but if it is too warm, I'll be running in 35 degree rain which also sucks. And I have to decide by Wednesday at 4 PM whether to cancel my hotel. Oh joy.

I see a lot of very good potential here. The HP is very strong but would need to be a little further SE for me to feel comfortable. LPC isn't very strong, which would minimize WAA. It is also obviously a very juicy system. Somebody is getting hammered.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 03, 2018, 11:33:40 AM
Can the euro finally be the outlier for first time in awhile ... weíre fixing find out soon....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Skillsweather on December 03, 2018, 11:52:28 AM
A lot of the radar maps show green over like all of mid tn the whole time but then say 6+ in snow. I dont get it. Plus the 540 lines north of us so this will be wet good snow not powder. But means lower ratios. If i was in mid tn be looking at the chance for 1-2 in wet snow north of i40. I want more but id be totally fine with that for early december and that looks possible with current model runs. Still several days for change though.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 03, 2018, 11:58:50 AM
The king is up n fixing run as I speak...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 12:07:36 PM
The new 12z GFS is something... (Attachment Link) (Attachment Link) (Attachment Link)

A corner storm.  As in, only the northwest corner and northeast corner of Tennessee get snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 03, 2018, 12:09:43 PM
A corner storm.  As in, only the northwest corner and northeast corner of Tennessee get snow.
Iím good with that lol. Cmon northern valley areas!


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 12:15:46 PM
Iím good with that lol. Cmon northern valley areas!


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 ::rofl::  Not much wiggle room on those maps. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Scot on December 03, 2018, 12:17:24 PM
Iím good with that lol. Cmon northern valley areas!


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That's not nice!     ::shaking_finger::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 12:28:41 PM
From the maps posted here, and some others I've seen online (Canuck), the rain-snow line wants to hug the KY-TN border.  So close.  A slight shift south is needed, and is quite possible.  This is still 5-6 days out.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 03, 2018, 12:33:26 PM
It appears the Euro ticked north a tad


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 03, 2018, 12:44:13 PM
It appears the Euro ticked north a tad


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yeah. The euro was warmer ... 850s wonít get her done on this run ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 03, 2018, 12:50:31 PM
https://www.nps.gov/grsm/index.htm

Yanks can't even spell correctly in their own **** language
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on December 03, 2018, 12:51:46 PM
https://www.nps.gov/grsm/index.htm

Yanks can't even spell correctly in their own **** language

Even with autocorrect


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 03, 2018, 12:56:10 PM
12Z Euro is 40 degree rain for basically everybody
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 12:56:52 PM
Far be it from me to correct anyone's spelling, but there's always been a "great" debate on this subject.

https://www.visitmysmokies.com/blog/smoky-mountains/smoky-mountains-vs-smokey-mountains/ (https://www.visitmysmokies.com/blog/smoky-mountains/smoky-mountains-vs-smokey-mountains/)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 03, 2018, 01:07:22 PM
12Z Euro is 40 degree rain for basically everybody

That's more like it. This system just doesn't have much cold air to play with. Old Man Winter is just giving us a peak into whats coming in January.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BALLPARK on December 03, 2018, 01:38:59 PM
Maybe, I'm not all wrong. I think everyone on here understood what I was talking about. ::scratch::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Skillsweather on December 03, 2018, 02:16:30 PM
At least we can all get work done now this week lol. Still can change and even if it dont we could still see flakes fly a little.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 03, 2018, 02:23:47 PM
People throwing in the towel extra early with this one I see.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Greyhound on December 03, 2018, 02:44:56 PM
FTFY.   ;D


Think again.....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 03, 2018, 02:48:53 PM

Think again.....

Greyhound is right
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Greyhound on December 03, 2018, 02:57:22 PM
Far be it from me to correct anyone's spelling, but there's always been a "great" debate on this subject.

https://www.visitmysmokies.com/blog/smoky-mountains/smoky-mountains-vs-smokey-mountains/ (https://www.visitmysmokies.com/blog/smoky-mountains/smoky-mountains-vs-smokey-mountains/)

Smoky vs Smokey......but it definitely ain't SMOKIE (apologies to "Ballpark"). 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on December 03, 2018, 02:57:52 PM
Greyhound is right

Ha- I'll admit, when I first saw it, "Smoky" didn't look right to me either. So, I looked it up, and sure enough it is "Smoky Mountains." "Smokey" is apparently a valid spelling variation of the word "smoky."

For example, "Smokey Bear" is spelled with the "e" while "Smoky Mountains" isn't.

Now back to the discussion on who's going to get "smoked" by the storm this week.  ::blowtorch:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 03, 2018, 03:15:03 PM

Think again.....

We've had Smoky, Smokey, Smokie.  Lucky I didn't spell it "Smokee".
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 03, 2018, 03:23:52 PM
People throwing in the towel extra early with this one I see.  ::rofl::

I was never in the ring to start with on this one. At least for my area. Maybe Nashville_Wx can hike LeConte this weekend and get us some good snow shots. They should do very well.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 03:56:43 PM
Smoky vs Smokey......but it definitely ain't SMOKIE (apologies to "Ballpark").

It would be easy for non-locals to be confused.  "Smokies Stadium" for example.  Take the "s" off, and you have Smokie.   And besides, I knew what he meant.  I've seen far worse grammar and spelling on here, but I ain't namin' no names.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 03, 2018, 04:09:08 PM
That upper low that swings across the entire state Saturday night into Sunday could be really tricky. While temps are marginal on the euro , it looks strong enough to me to generate some of its own cold air. Lots of time left.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 03, 2018, 04:33:15 PM
We've had Smoky, Smokey, Smokie.  Lucky I didn't spell it "Smokee".

Smokť
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 04:34:43 PM
Both versions of the GFS are running.  V2 finishes first.  V3 (the new one) is just starting.  So far, I'm not impressed with what the old version is showing.  But at least it's been consistent.  Strangely, it shows very little for the Plateau.  I would think with this type of system, it would do better than surrounding areas. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 03, 2018, 04:47:48 PM
Look at the GFS last 7 runs, including the 18Z today. It appears today's 12Z run is the outlier. 18Z and 5 runs prior to 12Z have been very consistent. Snow just north of TN/KY border.  ::shrug::

Last 5 runs of Euro, yesterday's 12Z is outlier. Other 4 runs have been consistent and in-line with GFS. Snow just north of TN/KY border.

Interesting that they're this consistent 5-7 days out, based on those runs. Will be interesting to see if they hold or trend North or South. So far, the trend is constant when throwing out the outliers.

Let's see how the next 2 days runs compare.  ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 04:54:35 PM
Yeah, the current run of the old version does have the rain/snow line further north than the previous runs--more along the Ohio River. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 03, 2018, 05:02:06 PM
Yeah, the current run of the old version does have the rain/snow line further north than the previous runs--more along the Ohio River.

When does GFS 2.0 run?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 05:15:15 PM
When does GFS 2.0 run?

In the process now on this site . . .


https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ (https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/)


Click on GFSFV3
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: WestKnoxNavster on December 03, 2018, 06:13:04 PM
Just wanted to chime in on the Smoky vs Smokey vs Smokie vs Smokee vs Smokť.

Sorry to burst y'alls bubble.

But it's correctly spelled:

Smokeye.  ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2018, 06:51:45 PM
The new GFS dumps a boatload of snow.  Mostly in KY.  Rain/snow line almost follows the TN/KY border mile for mile. The northeast corner of TN also gets in on the action.  Johnson City looks like the place to be this weekend if GFS 3.0 is correct.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clay on December 03, 2018, 07:34:24 PM
At this point in the game, we've got 2 big factors at play.
1) The pacific disturbance: Strength, Timing, and Location. A moderate-to-strong cutoff low is approaching Southern California. Still, we aren't nearing landfall and until that is the case run to run wiggles the forecast track east of the rockies aren't that relevant as data sampling is very limited. The strength of these cutoff lows tend to be overestimated prior to landfall which is going to be an important consideration. Normally, a strong, deepening ULL would translate favorably further to the east, however, in this scenario, it's going to encourage too much WAA in our neck of the woods. Timing isn't optimal as the trailing edge of a shallow arctic airmass retreats eastward. Snow in the South is just plain tough without blocking.

2) Temps. We all know this; you've gotta have cold air in place south of the Mason-Dixon for widespread snowfall. West of Apps, it just isn't there. Even with a southerly track, temps are going to be an issue for most of TN. I just don't think we have a shot at anafrontal snowfall. It will be a roll of the dice as the ULL passes east (assuming a favorable track) which really takes blockbuster totals out of the equation for most.

TL;DR: Pattern just isn't favorable for statewide southern slider. Temps are a major issue and the timing of the ULL isn't optimal.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 03, 2018, 08:41:21 PM
Someone started a thread on Southern Weather yesterday around noon and it is already 50 pages long.  ::rofl:: They need help.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 03, 2018, 08:48:17 PM
Someone started a thread on Southern Weather yesterday around noon and it is already 50 pages long.  ::rofl:: They need help.
they are some serious snow weenies over there... but to be honest... 2 thirds of north Carolina did look like they were in the sweet spot for a big thump of snow... but I think your fixing to see some cliff diving starting tonite...lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 03, 2018, 09:08:36 PM
Someone started a thread on Southern Weather yesterday around noon and it is already 50 pages long.  ::rofl:: They need help.

They can bugger off. They got snow last December.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 03, 2018, 09:31:09 PM
At this point in the game, we've got 2 big factors at play.
1) The pacific disturbance: Strength, Timing, and Location. A moderate-to-strong cutoff low is approaching Southern California. Still, we aren't nearing landfall and until that is the case run to run wiggles the forecast track east of the rockies aren't that relevant as data sampling is very limited. The strength of these cutoff lows tend to be overestimated prior to landfall which is going to be an important consideration. Normally, a strong, deepening ULL would translate favorably further to the east, however, in this scenario, it's going to encourage too much WAA in our neck of the woods. Timing isn't optimal as the trailing edge of a shallow arctic airmass retreats eastward. Snow in the South is just plain tough without blocking.

2) Temps. We all know this; you've gotta have cold air in place south of the Mason-Dixon for widespread snowfall. West of Apps, it just isn't there. Even with a southerly track, temps are going to be an issue for most of TN. I just don't think we have a shot at anafrontal snowfall. It will be a roll of the dice as the ULL passes east (assuming a favorable track) which really takes blockbuster totals out of the equation for most.

TL;DR: Pattern just isn't favorable for statewide southern slider. Temps are a major issue and the timing of the ULL isn't optimal.

Well stated. Agree.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 03, 2018, 10:23:30 PM
Well the 0z throws us a bone nice wrap around snow for most west tenn... big hit for Ne arkansas ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 03, 2018, 10:43:50 PM
Well the 0z throws us a bone nice wrap around snow for most west tenn... big hit for Ne arkansas ....

West Tennessee can bugger off too- you got all the snow last year and already saw some in November.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on December 03, 2018, 10:54:23 PM
West Tennessee can bugger off too- you got all the snow last year and already saw some in November.

We want it all


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 03, 2018, 11:01:43 PM
We want it all


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Eat tumbleweeds.

Wait, that's Oklahoma.

Um.

I don't know. Eat dirt. I'll drink moonshine and play the fiddle in the meantime until it finally snows here.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 04, 2018, 12:27:21 AM
0z no bueno.... 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 04, 2018, 06:17:48 AM
Tennessee snow dome activated.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/24z9hy0.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 04, 2018, 06:37:36 AM
Tennessee snow dome activated.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/24z9hy0.jpg)
unfortunetly. Thatís bout how it will play out ....while Kentucky and north arkansas ... and North Carolina get shelled.... Iím going enjoy my 33 degree rain appears .... yuck....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 04, 2018, 06:53:11 AM
Tennessee snow dome activated.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/24z9hy0.jpg)

Heaviest snow band shifting further to the north.  Even southern KY from BG to London now getting just 1-2."  But I would take that over nuttin'!
NC and VA seem to be consistently in the sweet spot.  Maybe I need to pull out the ole Jeep and head up I-81. 

And what's up with all the heavy snow in Arkansas that stops at the Mississippi River?  Maybe the magical snow dome is real.   ::wow::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 04, 2018, 06:57:14 AM
Heaviest snow band shifting further to the north.  Even southern KY from BG to London now getting just 1-2."  But I would take that over nuttin'!
NC and VA seem to be consistently in the sweet spot.  Maybe I need to pull out the ole Jeep and head up I-81. 

And what's up with all the heavy snow in Arkansas that stops at the Mississippi River?  Maybe the magical snow dome is real.   ::wow::
its called the pyramid along the ms river ... SNOW DOME...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 04, 2018, 07:04:15 AM
On a brighter note, NAM showing some decent snow shower action later today into early tomorrow.  Enough to at least dust the ground in places, and some Plateau areas may see a half inch or so.  NAM occasionally shows a good band of radar returns developing from upper middle TN southeastward into east TN.  If it comes to fruition, some may see a decent coating by morning. 

(http://i66.tinypic.com/24x4az9.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Greyhound on December 04, 2018, 07:32:11 AM
On a brighter note, NAM showing some decent snow shower action later today into early tomorrow.  Enough to at least dust the ground in places, and some Plateau areas may see a half inch or so.  NAM occasionally shows a good band of radar returns developing from upper middle TN southeastward into east TN.  If it comes to fruition, some may see a decent coating by morning. 

(http://i66.tinypic.com/24x4az9.png)

Had a decent burst of snow as I was leaving the house this morning.  You could definitely make out tire tracks on the road.  But it wasn't doing anything once I got out of the neighborhood. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 04, 2018, 09:09:47 AM
6z Euro EPS looks interesting.  The focus is on ATL, but looking at the I-40 corridor, one could extrapolate the chances from there.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/2uiiuds.jpg)

(h/t @RyanMaue)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 04, 2018, 09:33:54 AM
I still think parts of west and middle tn especially north of I-40 are going to see some winter weather. It may not be but a inch or so, it may be more but for mid December I am not going to complain if we get a inch or 2, even though I would love a big storm and things still could change. I think Kentucky and maybe northwest tn could still do very well. But again it is still time for this too change for the better or worse. At least we have something to track that it at least in our vicinity and bears watching. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 04, 2018, 10:23:23 AM
Euro also has a slower system that spins around for awhile, as it only drifts east.  A cold upper low spinning over us could bring a switchover to snow that models don't see this far out. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 04, 2018, 10:25:36 AM
12z GFS keeps the status quo.  Areas N of BNA may see some slight accumulations (that transitions to liquid) but the vast majority of the state sees a 35F rain.  Maybe some wrap-around stuff as the system moves off the eastern seaboard, but that's questionable.  Western NC gets popped due to CAD processes, at least initially.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 04, 2018, 10:26:34 AM
Just for kicks and giggles, a sounding from the 12z GFS for BNA. 35 at the surface, upper air is pretty close.

(http://i65.tinypic.com/5a58qt.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on December 04, 2018, 10:28:15 AM
I just donít understand how that low rides the coast but weíre too warm?


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 04, 2018, 10:29:33 AM
I just donít understand how that low rides the coast but weíre too warm?


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Seasonal climatology.  It may be cold, but its not deep enough.  More transient than "set in".
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on December 04, 2018, 10:30:09 AM
Seasonal climatology.  It may be cold, but its not deep enough.  More transient than "set in".

Gotcha!


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BALLPARK on December 04, 2018, 10:40:13 AM
Nice little Snow Shower now in Benton KY.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on December 04, 2018, 10:40:53 AM
Both the 12Z ICON and GFS are trying to pacify a good many of us with some minor accumulations Sunday night and Monday morning. I'll gladly take it.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 04, 2018, 10:51:11 AM
12Z doesn't look horrible for the northern half of TN--north of I-40.  Looks good, actually, for a system on December 8th.  It shows about 2-4 laid down during the whole system, heavier closer to KY border.  Tri-Cities looks sweet, along with western NC. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 04, 2018, 10:51:27 AM
Gotcha!


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Basically- the air mass it will encounter is a rotting or in the decay phases. As Eric said, its very much in line with climo. Now another 3-4 weeks and its game on.

BTW- after a brief warm up next week, euro weeklies go cold before Christmas and get colder into January.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Scot on December 04, 2018, 10:53:33 AM
Basically- the air mass it will encounter is a rotting or in the decay phases. As Eric said, its very much in line with climo. Now another 3-4 weeks and its game on.

BTW- after a brief warm up next week, euro weeklies go cold before Christmas and get colder into January.

A cold Christmas always feels just right!  A few flakes would make my Christmas!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 04, 2018, 10:56:57 AM
Basically- the air mass it will encounter is a rotting or in the decay phases.

(http://img.memecdn.com/a-gross-face_o_3390021.jpg)   ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 04, 2018, 11:01:24 AM
If the NAM and HRRR are to be believed, I wouldnít be shocked if someone on the Rim and, especially, on the Plateau were to see an inch of snow tonight.

These bursts are pretty intense.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 04, 2018, 11:04:55 AM
12Z doesn't look horrible for the northern half of TN--north of I-40.  Looks good, actually, for a system on December 8th.  It shows about 2-4 laid down during the whole system, heavier closer to KY border.  Tri-Cities looks sweet, along with western NC.
Yep the 12 GFS spit out 5.7 for ckv and 7.3 for Hopkinsville. Probably won't be that much but I-40 north in west and middle tn was generally 1-2 with much higher amounts going up into Kentucky. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 04, 2018, 11:32:37 AM
Yep the 12 GFS spit out 5.7 for ckv and 7.3 for Hopkinsville. Probably won't be that much but I-40 north in west and middle tn was generally 1-2 with much higher amounts going up into Kentucky. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Those values are verbatim.  Cobb data spits out a rain/snow mix for much of the event.  Whatever accums might occur will be eaten by liquid.  It's conceivable that S KY may end up with 2-4", but I wouldn't expect much more than an inch.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/15n0ohx.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on December 04, 2018, 12:07:49 PM
I've felt for a few days that this is probably going to end up being a KY/Ohio-Valley special- Louisville to Cincinnati. That stretch can score in December. We shall see.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 04, 2018, 12:11:53 PM
Switching to rain to snow and back again is better than just plain rain, I guess.  Thing is--sometimes you can switch to snow and it stays snow.  Last big one was in Feb '98 in southeast KY and the plateau of TN.  We were supposed to get a dusting of snow after a heavy rain event, and ended up with over a foot of wet snow that was not foreseen.  It went over to snow before dark, and never switched back.  The atmospheric temp profile became cold enough for all snow, and I guess that may be the problem with this system.  As Curt said, the cold is in the decaying stage by the time our storm comes through. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Scot on December 04, 2018, 12:20:37 PM
Switching to rain to snow and back again is better than just plain rain, I guess.  Thing is--sometimes you can switch to snow and it stays snow.  Last big one was in Feb '98 in southeast KY and the plateau of TN.  We were supposed to get a dusting of snow after a heavy rain event, and ended up with over a foot of wet snow that was not foreseen.  It went over to snow before dark, and never switched back.  The atmospheric temp profile became cold enough for all snow, and I guess that may be the problem with this system.  As Curt said, the cold is in the decaying stage by the time our storm comes through.
I remember that storm very well!  I was in college at Tennessee Tech at Cookeville in the computer lab studying when my roomates messaged me that I needed to get home because it was snowing.  I didn't believe them!  Barely got to the house then the power went out!  Transformer blew!  We walked out to Highway 111 and helped push cars out of ditches.  Good memories!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 04, 2018, 12:33:47 PM
I remember that storm very well!  I was in college at Tennessee Tech at Cookeville in the computer lab studying when my roomates messaged me that I needed to get home because it was snowing.  I didn't believe them!  Barely got to the house then the power went out!  Transformer blew!  We walked out to Highway 111 and helped push cars out of ditches.  Good memories!

The plateau of TN, along with central/eastern KY was buried in heavy snow.  Power outages were widespread--similar to an ice storm.  All the while snow fell at 33-34F.  We never got below freezing through the whole event--until the end of the storm.

During the day, I remember watching it switch from rain to snow and back again countless times.  Snow would fall for 10 minutes, then it would go back to heavy rain--back and forth.  On my drive home from work (4pm) it switched to half-dollar size clumps of snow, and from that point on it was game on.  The flakes were so big and falling so fast you could hear them hitting the ground.  One of those snowstorms you never forget.  And it was not predicted--not even close.  It became a nowcast situation that lasted for 24 hours as the low pressure spun overhead. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clay on December 04, 2018, 12:35:19 PM
12z Euro more favorable snow wise for areas along and north of 40. Still a borderline scenario but 850s show a marked improvement.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 04, 2018, 12:36:19 PM
12z Euro more favorable snow wise for areas along and north of 40. Still a borderline scenario but 850s show a marked improvement.
yeah. Big shift south ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Tornado 73 on December 04, 2018, 12:39:22 PM
A nice hit for NE Arkansas.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 04, 2018, 12:42:49 PM
LMK just issued a Winter Weather Advisory for southern KY for tonight. Calling for generally 1/2Ē with pockets of 1Ē+ under the heavier bands tonight.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 04, 2018, 12:43:00 PM
 Western NC still in the sweet spot.  I think it's a given it's gonna snow there.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clay on December 04, 2018, 12:44:55 PM
LMAO 15" on the Euro clown map at BNA
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 04, 2018, 12:53:53 PM
Maue tweeted a gif of the 12z Euro, for those wanting to see it.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1070027792589471745 (https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1070027792589471745)

Post Merge: December 04, 2018, 12:54:42 PM
Speaking of tweets, can we embed Tweets here?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 04, 2018, 01:08:40 PM
12z Euro, what a joke  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 04, 2018, 01:27:31 PM
Man, what's up with the normally reliable, stable Euro lately?  Did they do an update and ruin it?

I like it, though!  My backyard gets nearly 20".  Woohoo!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Woodvegas on December 04, 2018, 01:33:06 PM
12/4 12Z Euro is a big snow hit for the northern one half of TN especially northeast TN. BNA would get about 8 inches according to the clown maps but less if you look at the raw MOS data. I'd like to see the models trend about 50 more miles to the south.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 04, 2018, 01:37:43 PM
12/4 12Z Euro is a big snow hit for the northern one half of TN especially northeast TN. BNA would get about 8 inches. I'd like to see the models trend about 50 more miles to the south.

So would I. Yes the Euro was solid, but it is an outlier. Iíd feel much more confident if the models were just slightly colder.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Volduff64 on December 04, 2018, 01:42:10 PM
What links do you guys use for the Euro? 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Woodvegas on December 04, 2018, 01:43:06 PM
So would I. Yes the Euro was solid, but it is an outlier. Iíd feel much more confident if the models were just slightly colder.

Agree. We rarely score when the temp is borderline. It might end up 33 degrees with a lot of cold rain. But at least at the moment there has been some trending to the south.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 04, 2018, 01:56:00 PM
What links do you guys use for the Euro?

Go to weather.us
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 04, 2018, 02:02:23 PM
12z Euro...

...not sure I buy it.  Goes against climatology.  It's going to be a wet snow, though, for whomever is lucky enough to be underneath the area where thermodynamics come together.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mtcards on December 04, 2018, 02:18:03 PM
Always humorous comparing official forecasts by the professional crowd to the models forecasts

Going to be interesting to see how the official forecasts are laid out now that the "darling" Euro is calling for snow and the GFS really isnt, except on the back end.

Using the normal routine, my guess is that the forecast will call for a "chance" of snow until the first flake hits the ground, at which time, the word SNOW will be entered into the forecast. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 04, 2018, 02:23:25 PM
Per MRX:

Quote
For Saturday night and Sunday, the jet dynamic forcing for the upper
trough will produce strong omega along and just above the fronto-
genetic slope (around 500mb). Deep synoptic forcing will help cool
the vertical column with precipitation likely changing back to snow
over southwest Virginia, northeast Tennessee (especially mountains),
and Smoky Mountains. Main rain (or possibly rain/snow mix) elsewhere.

For Sunday night and Monday, upper dynamics strengthens the
surface/850mb pulling the warm conveyor belt into the northern half
of the area with a deformation zone. This will keep chances of
mainly snowfall going with additional snowfall anticipated. Will
include this potential snowstorm within the HWO.

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Woodvegas on December 04, 2018, 02:29:10 PM
What links do you guys use for the Euro?

Some options are Weather.us, Stormvista, and Accuweather, all of which are pay sites.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 04, 2018, 02:30:39 PM
12z Euro...

...not sure I buy it.  Goes against climatology.  It's going to be a wet snow, though, for whomever is lucky enough to be underneath the area where thermodynamics come together.
tend to agree with you... but last year parts Alabama and Georgia got a foot. Much further south... strange things have happen
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 04, 2018, 02:33:57 PM
New version of the GFS currently running is nothing like the last Euro run.  Rain/snow line is deep into KY, leaving us with mostly rain save for the northeast corner at the beginning of the storm.  And even where it snows, it's not impressive.  Euro stands alone for now
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 04, 2018, 02:40:36 PM
tend to agree with you... but last year parts Alabama and Georgia got a foot. Much further south... strange things have happen

If I remember right (which is debatable), that was an ULL and not a SLP.  Still too warm at the surface...it's close, but climo wins out.

Post Merge: December 04, 2018, 02:40:54 PM
Some options are Weather.us, Stormvista, and Accuweather, all of which are pay sites.

Weather.us is free to use.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on December 04, 2018, 02:45:07 PM
Looks like OHX is going with a WWA for it northeastern counties.
edit: this was either a mistake on their homepage initially or misread it
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 04, 2018, 02:45:33 PM
tend to agree with you... but last year parts Alabama and Georgia got a foot. Much further south... strange things have happen

Totally different set-up and much more cold air to work with. Below is the weather map for Dec 8th 2017 and you can click forward for the 9th.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20171208.html (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20171208.html)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 04, 2018, 02:46:11 PM
Another thing to think bout... the energy for this system getting ready enter west coast... it s starting to get a better sample for the models to sniff out...

Post Merge: December 04, 2018, 02:48:17 PM
Totally different set-up and much more cold air to work with. Below is the weather map for Dec 7th 2017 and you can click forward for the 8th.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20171208.html (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20171208.html)
true. But I was just speaking terms of climo... Thais system has a ull lagging behind mind system ... which can create its own cold air  with dynamics ... who ever is over the deform band can and will get creamed ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 04, 2018, 02:49:27 PM
Weather.us is free to use.

Yep, their Euro maps are as detailed as you will get for free. That was a game changer.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 04, 2018, 02:53:56 PM
Looks like OHX is going with a WWA for it northeastern counties.

I think it's just an SPS.  Unless I missed something. 

Post Merge: December 04, 2018, 02:56:38 PM
From OHX:
Quote
By Friday morning, look for moisture to begin advecting into
Middle Tennessee as an inverted trough develops from a low over
northern Mexico. As the surface low tracks to our south, there
will be abundant isentropic left, which can best be seen on the
295K & 300K isopotential temperature surfaces. The surface low
will continue eastward across the Gulf Coast throughout the
weekend, but it appears that thicknesses will stay just warm
enough for mostly rain (or at least a rain/snow mixture) until
late Sunday or Sunday night, by which time the low will be
situated just off the NC/SC coast. It will take quite a bit of
cold air advection on the occluded side of the low to get us cold
enough to switch over to all snow. By then, the deepest moisture
will have already pulled east of Middle Tennessee, with POP's
diminishing on Monday. So actual snow accumulations, based on the
current QPF and thermal structure, won't be that significant.

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on December 04, 2018, 03:00:43 PM
I think it's just an SPS.  Unless I missed something. 
I could swear the header on their homepage which now says SPS said WWA about 20 minutes ago. Said it down in the info as well. Looks like they fixed it.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 04, 2018, 03:06:37 PM
EPS snowfall did tick southward at 12z by a good margin. Will have to see if this is a trend esp as the LP finally comes on shore for better sampling tomorrow night. Those thermals on the euro are really complicated. It has lots of 33-34 temps for most people here but the "deeper" cold air is further NW. I do think trends favor the Ozarks more so than anywhere.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 04, 2018, 03:16:11 PM
If it's heavy enough, we can receive ample snow accumulation with 34 degree temperatures.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 04, 2018, 03:17:49 PM
If it's heavy enough, we can receive ample snow accumulation with 34 degree temperatures.

Right, but if the cold air isn't "deep" enough or the precip convective enough, the temp profile wins out and the snow transitions back to liquid and eats whatever accums may have fallen.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: EastTNWX on December 04, 2018, 04:16:15 PM
EPS snowfall did tick southward at 12z by a good margin. Will have to see if this is a trend esp as the LP finally comes on shore for better sampling tomorrow night. Those thermals on the euro are really complicated. It has lots of 33-34 temps for most people here but the "deeper" cold air is further NW. I do think trends favor the Ozarks more so than anywhere.

You might be speaking purely from your local position, but overall I would say the trends favor the Apps and NE Tennessee more than anywhere. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 04, 2018, 04:16:50 PM
18z gfs.  South trend continues ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on December 04, 2018, 04:22:47 PM
ALL HAIL KING EURO, THE SOUTHERN TREND, AND AN ULL PULLING IN MORE COLD.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 04, 2018, 04:34:42 PM
LOL.  18z GFS says "Nope.  Try again."
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: EastTNWX on December 04, 2018, 04:36:47 PM
18z gfs.  South trend continues ...

The trend continues, and things look better overall, but something isn't right with how it resolves the rain vs snow situation.  I think its climatology bias is keeping things rain vs. snow too long-at least for the eastern parts. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 04, 2018, 04:48:57 PM
The one area all models have been consistently showing heavy snow with this system is western NC northeastward into VA.  Once in a few model runs it changes up a bit, but it's almost always there. 

I'd be hitting the grocery store now if I lived on that side of the mountains. 


Post Merge: December 04, 2018, 04:56:19 PM
The trend continues, and things look better overall, but something isn't right with how it resolves the rain vs snow situation.  I think its climatology bias is keeping things rain vs. snow too long-at least for the eastern parts.

Agree.  And it is the old GFS--about to be replaced for good reasons.   Then again, the new version seemed to almost lose the snow altogether on it's last run.  ::shrug::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: WXHD on December 04, 2018, 05:12:53 PM
The trend continues, and things look better overall, but something isn't right with how it resolves the rain vs snow situation.  I think its climatology bias is keeping things rain vs. snow too long-at least for the eastern parts.

Hint, itís rain.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 04, 2018, 05:16:04 PM
The only predictable thing is that the Vols will suck, and the Titans will suck.

This post aged well.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: justinmundie on December 04, 2018, 05:58:56 PM
With the limited amount Iíve been looking at this, it seems pretty elevation dependent outside of the CAD regions.

Being down in bham, itís pretty interesting to see the CAD occasionally make it down this far. I suspect Iíll see some good ice events in the future.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 04, 2018, 06:16:51 PM
I remember that storm very well!  I was in college at Tennessee Tech at Cookeville in the computer lab studying when my roomates messaged me that I needed to get home because it was snowing.  I didn't believe them!  Barely got to the house then the power went out!  Transformer blew!  We walked out to Highway 111 and helped push cars out of ditches.  Good memories!
I was at Tech in 98 as well. Remember that storm well. Fun times.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 04, 2018, 06:20:43 PM
Per MRX:
Bring. It. Baby.
Northeast Tennessee. We need to score. Bigly. Lol.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 04, 2018, 07:23:45 PM
Interesting. From little rock Klzk.  Saying their starting to detect a less of a warm nose  on models ... saying sleet to snow for northern 2 thirds state ... were they were worried with feeezing rain first ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Skillsweather on December 04, 2018, 08:03:51 PM
Interesting. From little rock Klzk.  Saying their starting to detect a less of a warm nose  on models ... saying sleet to snow for northern 2 thirds state ... were they were worried with feeezing rain first ...
For them sure. But that has very little to do with us. Now if the models start leaving out our warm nose then thats news. I never really thought they was going to have a warm nose anyways because of how the low was moving and forming. We mainly need the low to weaken or go further south and the high to be slightly stronger. But to much of either screws us. for most in Tennessee its probably just going to be a rain event with backside snow showers briefly. Still isn't bad for early December. Even if somehow we manage 1-2inch's it will be gone so fast so it wont matter anyways. Pretty thats it lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: EastTNWX on December 04, 2018, 08:33:23 PM
The biggest issue with this storm so far has been inconsistencies between the major models.  It looks like the GFS is starting to come more in line with the Euro.  I like the way this is looking, especially for the Eastern 1/3rd and NW'ern parts of the state.  If the warm nose is even just a smidge weaker than currently modeled the Valley could be looking at a big storm. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Skillsweather on December 04, 2018, 08:38:43 PM
The biggest issue with this storm so far has been inconsistencies between the major models.  It looks like the GFS is starting to come more in line with the Euro.  I like the way this is looking, especially for the Eastern 1/3rd and NW'ern parts of the state.  If the warm nose is even just a smidge weaker than currently modeled the Valley could be looking at a big storm.
Yeah theres still hope for all of I40 north. Imo. But its better to have lower expectations. Because remember its early December. We rarely seem to get snows this early. But we are still several days away really. Literally a slight shift could really put I40 in a good spot or take all hope of anything away.. Thats whats so fun about waiting for each model run. Ive been looking at the updates on here all day at work.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 04, 2018, 08:41:53 PM
I will take what the new GFS FV3 at 18z just threw out there!  ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 04, 2018, 08:55:24 PM
0z nam off to good start tonite with the 0z suits... 1041 mb high over northern Illinois... to bad just not quite in nams wheelhouse just yet... but
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 04, 2018, 08:56:19 PM
I will take what the new GFS FV3 at 18z just threw out there!  ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
It read the North of 40 memo.



(http://i64.tinypic.com/28i2hjd.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 04, 2018, 08:56:44 PM
I will take what the new GFS FV3 at 18z just threw out there!  ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Where do you view the GFS 2.0? The site I use has 12z as the latest.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 04, 2018, 09:00:51 PM
Where do you view the GFS 2.0? The site I use has 12z as the latest.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Tropical tidbits. It comes out later than the GFS
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 04, 2018, 09:37:46 PM
0z gfs is rolling now... ::snowman:: ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 04, 2018, 09:41:05 PM
Yeah theres still hope for all of I40 north. Imo. But its better to have lower expectations. Because remember its early December. We rarely seem to get snows this early. But we are still several days away really. Literally a slight shift could really put I40 in a good spot or take all hope of anything away.. Thats whats so fun about waiting for each model run. Ive been looking at the updates on here all day at work.

I become way less productive when this sh*t happens. I'll follow a fantasy storm all week only to lose countless minutes of my life waiting for something that isn't going to happen.

And I'm doing it again, and it's almost exam time. Curse me.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: pirates1 on December 04, 2018, 09:57:48 PM
It read the North of 40 memo.


And look the snow dome picks up in Williamson County!!
(http://i64.tinypic.com/28i2hjd.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 04, 2018, 10:12:52 PM
0z GFS looks a lot like 12z. Has about 2 inches here and 8 inches literally 20 miles north. North Arkansas is the sweet spot. It does develop a secondary disturbance that gives the north half of middle 2 to 4.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 04, 2018, 10:31:57 PM
Interesting to start watching..
NAM starting to come into play.

FWIW, 0z NAMís last 6 hours show it slightly slower than GFS...and slightly south of GFS with Rain/Snow line.

Curious to see how the 12z and 18z NAM handles this vs GFS/EURO tomorrow.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clay on December 04, 2018, 10:32:11 PM
Overall good trends in the globals thus far.. Euro flipped to nearly an all snow/sleet solution north of the 40 corridor with significant improvements to thermal profiles on the Canadian and modest improvements on the 0Z GFS (Mid & West TN). Disturbance taps into the RAOB network beginning tomorrow so lots of excitement and heartbreak **coughs** N.C. **coughs** ahead.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on December 04, 2018, 10:51:13 PM
I may have to drive up to Heber Springs, Ar. this weekend to do some trout fishing on the Little Red River. Looks like the place to be in our area.  ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 04, 2018, 11:23:31 PM
The snow algorithm on the new gfs on Tropical Tidbits needs some serious work. Loco.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on December 04, 2018, 11:32:04 PM
0Z GEFS Ensemble mean:
(https://i.imgur.com/F6nQcxj.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 01:27:46 AM
The 0z NAM is slower with the precip and colder at hour 84 than the 0z GFS (big cavet though that the NAM at hour 84 isnít the most reliable, just throwing it out there to see if this pattern holds the closer we get to show time!)

0z GFS temps[attachimg=1]
0z NAM temps[attachimg=2]
0z GFS precip[attachimg=3]
0z NAM precip[attachimg=4]
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 04:55:23 AM
MRX this morning:

Quote
All said, confidence in that a wintry precipitation event across the
cwfa will occur is increasing
.  However as stated last night, given
that the system isn`t even being sampled by the RAOB network,
provides at least some uncertainty overall, aside from model
solution discontinuities.  Therefore confidence in timing would be
best stated as moderate, with low/moderate confidence in QPF/ptypes
and placement of such.  Beyond this system, surface high pressure
will advect into the region beneath deep upper ridging, all yielding
dry conditions through midweek.

If this system actually does produce a decent snow event for us in early December, it would be an epic beginning to winter.

Post Merge: December 05, 2018, 06:13:59 AM
From Chris Bailey @ Ky Weather Center

(http://kyweathercenter.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Chris-3.png)

Post Merge: December 05, 2018, 06:23:14 AM
Euro was south yesterday, and shifted north again overnight.  Until it has some consistent solutions, it's hard to be overly confident.  Hopefully, it will tick south again.  EL Nino argues for a southern track, but it's early December. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2018, 06:29:25 AM
Latest run. New gfs. 6z.  14 inches snow little rock ... congrats... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 05, 2018, 06:31:41 AM
The EPS mean is 3 to 4 inches north of 40.

 What could go wrong ? The 84 hr NAM looks awesome.



(http://i67.tinypic.com/6ye4na.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 05, 2018, 06:33:35 AM
MRX this morning:

If this system actually does produce a decent snow event for us in early December, it would be an epic beginning to winter.

Post Merge: December 05, 2018, 06:13:59 AM
From Chris Bailey @ Ky Weather Center

(http://kyweathercenter.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Chris-3.png)

Post Merge: December 05, 2018, 06:23:14 AM
Euro was south yesterday, and shifted north again overnight.  Until it has some consistent solutions, it's hard to be overly confident.  Hopefully, it will tick south again.  EL Nino argues for a southern track, but it's early December.
For MRX to continue to mention this and be somewhat confident at 4 days out says something about the potential for northeast TN. They are so conservative. Usually the last to issue anything, the last to discuss anything, and when they do it typically has pessimistic overtones. Their early discussions and confidence levels has me extremely optimistic.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 06:34:59 AM
Latest run. New gfs. 6z.  14 inches snow little rock ... congrats... lol

It's less impressive with the snow overall, especially in KY, until after the low passes by.  It almost appears a secondary upper level feature drops additional snow in KY and eastern TN late Monday into Tuesday with the parent storm offshore of the Carolinas.

Post Merge: December 05, 2018, 06:44:24 AM
Big winners continue to be parts of Arkansas, and western NC.  Even upstate SC and northeast GA have a good shot at accumulating snow thanks to the "wedge."  Interesting to see how topography interacts with the atmosphere to create certain weather conditions.  If not for the Appalachians, there would be no "wedge." 

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 06:45:34 AM
We have a solid coating of snow this morning with light snow still falling. Tried to post a picture but the site is being stubborn.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 06:50:23 AM
For MRX to continue to mention this and be somewhat confident at 4 days out says something about the potential for northeast TN. They are so conservative. Usually the last to issue anything, the last to discuss anything, and when they do it typically has pessimistic overtones. Their early discussions and confidence levels has me extremely optimistic.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Where you are located is almost certain to see some accumulation at some point, either with the initial system, or with the secondary upper level system the new GFS is showing.   Further down the valley, things become more murky, especially for Knoxville southwest to Chattanooga.  Knoxville has a shot, but the Euro has most of the better accumulating snow just north and east of there.  It's going to be close.  It may be one of those systems where Knoxville gets a dusting, and Morristown gets 4 inches.  I've seen it happen before. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2018, 07:08:24 AM
Seems some national weather service offices are throwing out the euro ...  it does seem to be on island on its own... but it is the euro ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 07:26:07 AM

Greenville, SC NWS discusses secondary feature in their morning AFD:

Quote
The low is expected to intensify fairly rapidly off and slow down or
stall off the NC/VA coast Monday guidance continues to show a
reinforcing short wave diving into the trough
. This may support
enhancement of precipitation on the backside of the storm early next
week, leading to potentially additional wintry precip across the
region.

That secondary short wave may be what gives east TN it's best shot at snow, since colder air will come in with it.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 05, 2018, 07:31:41 AM
Light snow showers in downtown Knoxville this morning
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 05, 2018, 07:40:10 AM
Seems some national weather service offices are throwing out the euro ...  it does seem to be on island on its own... but it is the euro ....

Which ones?  Need documentation.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on December 05, 2018, 07:41:34 AM
The GFS has 2.3Ē qpf at kcha. What a shame it looks to be wasted. Could have been a record breaker with numbers like that.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 05, 2018, 07:45:13 AM
The GFS has 2.3Ē qpf at kcha. What a shame it looks to be wasted. Could have been a record breaker with numbers like that.

No kidding, so frustrating. Meanwhile, North Carolina, the biggest snow pansies, is getting it all. As per usual!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 07:46:23 AM
Greenville NWS also mentioned some areas of the Piedmont and northern NC may see over a half inch of ice.  That much ice combined with a heavy, wet snow, is going to cause a lot of damage to trees and power lines.  I guess they can keep that part of it.


Post Merge: December 05, 2018, 07:52:30 AM
The GFS has 2.3Ē qpf at kcha. What a shame it looks to be wasted. Could have been a record breaker with numbers like that.

I would be happy if we could just get half of this to fall as snow.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/10fo0bc.gif)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 05, 2018, 07:52:44 AM
Greenville NWS also mentioned some areas of the Piedmont and northern NC may see over a half inch of ice.  That much ice combined with a heavy, wet snow, is going to cause a lot of damage to trees and power lines.  I guess they can keep that part of it.


Post Merge: December 05, 2018, 07:52:30 AM
I would be happy if we could just get half of this to fall as snow.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/10fo0bc.gif)

CAD, FTW.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 08:08:02 AM
I guess today's runs of the GFS/Euro will either keep hope alive, or cut it off at the knees.  Here's hoping the Snow Miser finds a generous streak for us Southerners.

(https://moviewriternyu.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/snow-miser.jpg)

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Crockett on December 05, 2018, 08:31:12 AM
Almost two inches of snow on the ground here this morning...I guess it is officially winter.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 08:40:00 AM
Almost two inches of snow on the ground here this morning...I guess it is officially winter.

Jamestown reported 1.5Ē this morning, so definitely an overachieving snow for those of you on the Plateau!

We are between .25Ē-.50Ē. To me any snow before Christmas is an extra bonus!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 08:48:06 AM
Snow over here was variable.  A dusting at the house, nothing at work, and reports from fellow employees of nearly an inch from Dandridge to the north/east.  Glancing at the radar, you can see why.  "Clumps" of snow showers drifting through, while some see nothing.


(http://i65.tinypic.com/2myd7qs.gif)

Where the snow comes down--it's pretty intense.  Enough to reduce visibility.
 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 08:49:49 AM
12z NAM gives Memphis a nice sleetfest. From looking at the way it is shaping up at the end of its run, looks like a nice event shaping up for west TN.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 05, 2018, 08:54:52 AM
Where you are located is almost certain to see some accumulation at some point, either with the initial system, or with the secondary upper level system the new GFS is showing.   Further down the valley, things become more murky, especially for Knoxville southwest to Chattanooga.  Knoxville has a shot, but the Euro has most of the better accumulating snow just north and east of there.  It's going to be close.  It may be one of those systems where Knoxville gets a dusting, and Morristown gets 4 inches.  I've seen it happen before.
Yeah. I feel we have a decent shot of accumulating snow, primarily from the system coming in behind the surface low. But, still could get accumulations from both. If so, weíll score big. I live about 10 miles NE of Morristown. I work in Kingsport. I keep telling my co-workers they need to be prepared to get several inches. One fellow co-worker lives in SW VA, one near Mountain City, Tn. I told them both that double digit snow is very possible for them. They basically laughed at me. Hardly any mention of this weekendís system around here right now. I suspect it to ramp up this afternoon.

On another note, we had a light dusting this morning. Snowing off and on this morning. Hopefully this is an appetizer to something bigger. Lol.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JHart on December 05, 2018, 08:59:08 AM
Oooh Ö Mother Nature is shedding a bit of dandruff on MTSU right now.  I will need snow tires if this keeps up for about a century.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 09:07:44 AM
Yeah. I feel we have a decent shot of accumulating snow, primarily from the system coming in behind the surface low. But, still could get accumulations from both. If so, weíll score big. I live about 10 miles NE of Morristown. I work in Kingsport. I keep telling my co-workers they need to be prepared to get several inches. One fellow co-worker lives in SW VA, one near Mountain City, Tn. I told them both that double digit snow is very possible for them. They basically laughed at me. Hardly any mention of this weekendís system around here right now. I suspect it to ramp up this afternoon.

On another note, we had a light dusting this morning. Snowing off and on this morning. Hopefully this is an appetizer to something bigger. Lol.


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Mtn. City is sitting pretty for a major winter event.   Hopefully, you'll be the one laughing next week.   ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on December 05, 2018, 09:08:39 AM
Definitely picked up a dusting in the downtown.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 10:22:01 AM
Snow coming down hard 'n heavy east of Sevierville now. 

(http://i68.tinypic.com/330g086.gif)

(http://i64.tinypic.com/2wf2rdy.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 05, 2018, 10:27:00 AM
Getting a dusting on grassy areas and mulch in Knoxville.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 10:34:45 AM
Wow, heavy burst turned the ground white in a matter of 5 minutes.  Back to light flurries now.   Hope we see more of that come Sunday/Monday at some point!! 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on December 05, 2018, 10:43:51 AM
12z NAM gives Memphis a nice sleetfest. From looking at the way it is shaping up at the end of its run, looks like a nice event shaping up for west TN.


NAM for the win!


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 10:47:04 AM
Both the GFS and CMC say our best bet to see any accumulation will be the leftover/backaround snow that develops late Monday into Tuesday. Both show ~1-3Ē statewide with that moisture.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 05, 2018, 11:03:29 AM
Both the GFS and CMC say our best bet to see any accumulation will be the leftover/backaround snow that develops late Monday into Tuesday. Both show ~1-3Ē statewide with that moisture.

(http://memeshappen.com/media/created/you-can-not-resist-the-power-of-the-back-side-meme-48380.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 11:05:38 AM
The new GFS has the low in freakin Tampa, yet we still have temps in the mid 30s...::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 05, 2018, 11:10:10 AM
The new GFS has the low in freakin Tampa, yet we still have temps in the mid 30s...::bangingheadintowall::

Did you mean Talahassee? Tampa is way south of the low on the 12Z GFS

Post Merge: December 05, 2018, 11:11:21 AM
The new GFS has the low in freakin Tampa, yet we still have temps in the mid 30s...::bangingheadintowall::

Oh I see it now! On the FV3 run
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 11:17:06 AM
Did you mean Talahassee? Tampa is way south of the low on the 12Z GFS

Post Merge: December 05, 2018, 11:11:21 AM
Oh I see it now! On the FV3 run

Yeah. New as in the FV3 version. My bad!

Very frustrating if that is what ends up occurring.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 05, 2018, 12:20:45 PM
Got about an 1/2 of an inch of snow this morning.  I have been following this system somewhat but I have a lot on my plate.  Hopefully, I can examine this system in greater detail this evening. 

With the system coming on to shore we should begin to know what we are dealing with at least with the initial portion of it with the evening runs. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 05, 2018, 12:24:12 PM
Not looking good for the home team on the 12z runs. Well unless we want to jump on the NAM train.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2018, 12:29:12 PM
Not looking good for the home team on the 12z runs. Well unless we want to jump on the NAM train.
buisy at work. But heard euro did shift south some today12z...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 05, 2018, 12:34:54 PM
buisy at work. But heard euro did shift south some today12z...

Looks like even if it were to shift 100 mikes south (which it didnít)- thermals are awful. It finally changes rain to snow showers on the backend Sunday night.  The bulk of the precip statewide minus the mountains is rain.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on December 05, 2018, 12:46:50 PM
AM AFD from HUN:
Quote
The forecast becomes increasingly complicated as we head into Friday
night, with most guidance now suggesting that an increasing pressure
gradient between the arctic high to our north and a developing
surface wave along the TX coast will allow the leading edge the
colder airmass (poised to our immediate north) to be advected
southward into at least the northern portion of our FA. This will
occur simultaneously with further strengthening of lift and moisture
advection aloft, raising concern for snow and perhaps some sleet
along the northeastern periphery of the expansive stratiform
precipitation shield. This would most likely occur from the TN-AL
border region northward, where a blend of model guidance suggests
that some light accumulating wintry precip will be possible during
the morning hours on Saturday
. As a result, we have increased probs
for snow in our local weather grids, and included some accumulations.......

During the day on Sunday, it appears as if the initial mid-level low
will become absorbed by a stronger northern stream wave dropping
rapidly across the Northern Plains Saturday night. The physical
mechanisms responsible for the early weekend precipitation will
weaken as this occurs, and we expect widespread rainfall to slowly
end from SW-to-NE on Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, the clipper system
is predicted to undergo rather substantial deepening as dives
southeastward into the TN Valley Sunday night. This system will
undoubtedly provide intense upward vertical motions across the
region, as suggested by 100-140 m 12-hr 500-mb height falls depicted
in the GFS/ECMWF models, and should provide another round of
precipitation during the early morning hours on Monday. Thermal
profiles suggest this will be entirely snow
, and probs for snow in
our weather grids have been increased accordingly. Accumulating snow
is becoming a more likely scenario with this event
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2018, 12:49:23 PM
AM AFD from HUN:
interesting from them....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 05, 2018, 01:00:05 PM
Euro not good.

F***** North Carolina gets it ALL
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 01:35:51 PM
Euro said: thank u, next

Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 05, 2018, 01:49:00 PM
Euro said: thank u, next

So did the euro control. I would bet thereís some decent token snow showers Sunday and Monday but real accumulating snow outside the mts isnít likely per this model. North central Arkansas is going to get clocked. Iím curious on the NC part of the storm how much is really mixed precip and pure snow. I would bet with CAD itís more mix to rain.

The EPS looks good but there have to be some outliers in there skewing the data more favorably. We arenít too far from where ensembles arenít useful vs globals, NAM(not just yet) and the SREF
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on December 05, 2018, 01:51:18 PM
Euro looks pretty good for people over 2000í. I bet the plateau and area mountains do quite well with this. Could be some people surprised for sure. Of course western NC is getting 2í+. No surprise there.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 02:02:41 PM
Man, the EPS does look solid...I want to believe. Haha

Shows, generally, 1Ē (closer to the Alabama border)- 5Ē (areas bordering KY) with higher totals on the Plateau.


James Spann posted the EPS accumulation map on his Twitter page. He must have the okay to do that, but I donít feel comfortable posting it here.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 05, 2018, 02:05:32 PM
Upper Northeast Tennessee still seems to be on the ďyouíre getting a foot of snow/youíre getting an inch of rain with backside snow-showers amounting to an inch or soĒ line. A slight difference in the thermal profile could shift it to one side or the other. Itís going to be oh so close to something big here. Good thing is short range models starting to come into play.

I just have a feeling someone is going to get a surprise more than a letdown based on forecasts. I say that because no one is hyping it up in this region. So a letdown isnít possible. But a surprise event is possible because theyíre not saying much. I know the local tv mets are forecasting based of what has been modeled over the past few days. But, thatís been a mix to predominantly rain event.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 05, 2018, 02:14:11 PM
Man, the EPS does look solid...I want to believe. Haha

Shows, generally, 1Ē (closer to the Alabama border)- 5Ē (areas bordering KY) with higher totals on the Plateau.


James Spann posted the EPS accumulation map on his Twitter page. He must have the okay to do that, but I donít feel comfortable posting it here.
Yep I seen that, looking at Euro ensembles they look good also. We'll just have to wait and see how the models handle things the next few days. Getting into Nam range also. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 02:15:49 PM
Yep I seen that, looking at Euro ensembles they look good also. We'll just have to wait and see how the models handle things the next few days. Getting into Nam range also. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Given the NAMís track record...it is going to be hard for me to believe the NAM until the event is underway. 😂
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 05, 2018, 02:20:23 PM
Given the NAMís track record...it is going to be hard for me to believe the NAM until the event is underway. 😂
You sir are correct.  ::rofl:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on December 05, 2018, 02:20:36 PM
The EPS looks good but there have to be some outliers in there skewing the data more favorably. We arenít too far from where ensembles arenít useful vs globals, NAM(not just yet) and the SREF

The Memphis to Nashville corridor and the TN Valley of east TN from Knoxville to Chatty were strikingly similar on most of the individual members. I clicked thru them and grouped them into three categories of 4" plus, under 4", and no accumulation. What I got was:
7 members with 0
33 with under 4"
10 with 4"+
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2018, 02:26:12 PM
Given the NAMís track record...it is going to be hard for me to believe the NAM until the event is underway. 😂
the nam is actually pretty good within 48 hours .... good with thermals etc
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 05, 2018, 02:39:25 PM
The Memphis to Nashville corridor and the TN Valley of east TN from Knoxville to Chatty were strikingly similar on most of the individual members. I clicked thru them and grouped them into three categories of 4" plus, under 4", and no accumulation. What I got was:
7 members with 0
33 with under 4"
10 with 4"+

Lol Iím glad you do the same thing. Itís a little mind boggling going through 50 members
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 05, 2018, 02:44:24 PM
Lol Iím glad you do the same thing. Itís a little mind boggling going through 50 members
I did as well. LOL!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2018, 02:49:57 PM
So. It begins... winter storm watches out for both north Texas and most Oklahoma ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on December 05, 2018, 02:54:25 PM
Lol Iím glad you do the same thing. Itís a little mind boggling going through 50 members
The weather.us model charts is a game changer for viewing the Euro maps.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 05, 2018, 03:08:32 PM
Predictions:

Memphis: Dusting
Dyersburg: 1"
Jackson: Dusting to 0.25"
Clarksville: 2" + icy mix

Pulaski: No accumulation
Murfreesboro: 0.25"
Nashville: 0.5"
Hendersonville: 0.75 to 1"
Cookeville: 1.5" plus icing
Crossville: 2" plus icing

Chattanooga: Dusting
Cleveland: Dusting
Knoxville: 0.5"
Gatlinburg: 6-10"
Morristown: 1.5-2"
Tri-Cities: 5-8"


Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 04:00:09 PM
It's painful always riding the precipitation fence between north and south.  Will it, won't it, will it, won't it?  Heck, just give me some cold clippers with 2-3" of white powder and I'll be happy.  At least with cold clippers you know what's going to fall, even if it's measured with your pinky.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 04:00:59 PM
18z GFS gives my location ~1-1.25Ē of rain with temps 33-36F throughout the event. I need Tums.


EDIT: HAHA JK, make that 1.5Ē of precip.  >:(
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: justinmundie on December 05, 2018, 04:02:08 PM
With the limited amount Iíve been looking at this, it seems pretty elevation dependent outside of the CAD regions.

Being down in bham, itís pretty interesting to see the CAD occasionally make it down this far. I suspect Iíll see some good ice events in the future.

Bump

I will be in Nashville this weekend, so thereís basically zero chance of anything in mid TN. Sorry folks. ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on December 05, 2018, 04:02:24 PM
18z GFS gives my location ~1-1.25Ē of rain with temps 33-36F throughout the event. I need Tums.

But it's the 18Z...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 04:07:52 PM
18Z GFS that's just running gets interesting for eastern areas.  Shows initial rain, and then a switch over to snow pretty early on--mainly for Knoxville east.  Some pretty decent amounts of white showing up. 

EDIT:  It appears as the parent low moves to our southeast, a northeast wind develops bringing colder air down the valley from sub-freezing areas in VA and NC.  This doesn't happen often, but sometimes when there is a strong CAD east of the Apps, it can bring colder air down the eastern TN valley.  Who knows if this will occur, but it does keep hope alive. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on December 05, 2018, 04:49:32 PM
18Z GFS that's just running gets interesting for eastern areas.  Shows initial rain, and then a switch over to snow pretty early on--mainly for Knoxville east.  Some pretty decent amounts of white showing up. 

EDIT:  It appears as the parent low moves to our southeast, a northeast wind develops bringing colder air down the valley from sub-freezing areas in VA and NC.  This doesn't happen often, but sometimes when there is a strong CAD east of the Apps, it can bring colder air down the eastern TN valley.  Who knows if this will occur, but it does keep hope alive.
12Z (and several runs before that) also shows a NNE to NE wind for the duration of the event here. Normally that means game on down here, but apparently there just isn't enough cold air available.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 05, 2018, 04:50:25 PM
To be honest the GFS has been really consistent. It has had the heavy snow within 30 miles of me run after run. Of course there have been slight variations but it has been rock solid.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 05, 2018, 04:53:38 PM
The Euro has had the most difficulty converging on a solution.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 05:00:02 PM
12Z (and several runs before that) also shows a NNE to NE wind for the duration of the event here. Normally that means game on down here, but apparently there just isn't enough cold air available.

That could be.  Normally when a low rides the Gulf in winter there's always a northeast wind blowing down the valley supplying us with enough cold for frozen precip.  I guess it being early December, and no strong Polar high bringing a fresh supply of cold, could be the difference with this one.

Who knows what might happen during the actual storm.  There could be some good surprises.  It's a borderline event, and there's almost always surprises when it's that close.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 05, 2018, 05:01:17 PM
but apparently there just isn't enough cold air available.

I do believe you hit the nail on the head for this event west of the apps.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Skillsweather on December 05, 2018, 05:35:55 PM
also how many times have we had a forecast low bust low? it happens. Same with high though. But this is the time for things to bust low honestly. Vs later in winter. Although lack of growth of deep cold is limited so early but again the suns angle is at its lowest right now. Anythings possible north of 40. south of 40 wish for back end snow showers thats about as lucky as you will get lol.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 05, 2018, 05:46:16 PM
18z FV3 GFS really knocks down the temperatures. A fluke? We'll find out at midnight when the 00Z runs show up.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 05, 2018, 05:49:47 PM
At this point this end of the state will have to ride the NAM and new GFS off the cliff.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Skillsweather on December 05, 2018, 05:54:57 PM
18z FV3 GFS really knocks down the temperatures. A fluke? We'll find out at midnight when the 00Z runs show up.
I dont like the new GFS it seems to be super aggressive with everything. But i do like the trends. Also it shows like a sold 8+ for most of Tn but keep in mind thats 10-1 ratio when it will be more like 7-1 and also there will be a lot more sleet i feel vs snow for a lot of Tn outside east Tn. But like you said the main thing to take from it was the down tick in temps.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 05, 2018, 05:58:53 PM
I dont like the new GFS it seems to be super aggressive with everything. But i do like the trends. Also it shows like a sold 8+ for most of Tn but keep in mind thats 10-1 ratio when it will be more like 7-1 and also there will be a lot more sleet i feel vs snow for a lot of Tn outside east Tn. But like you said the main thing to take from it was the down tick in temps.

It's definitely overdone. Mostly what I am looking at are the temps.
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 05, 2018, 06:13:02 PM
18z FV3 GFS lol
12+ IMBY. Iíll cash out now, thanks.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181206/0fede46f8150407b6d7ee65ad75336d2.jpg)


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Skillsweather on December 05, 2018, 06:13:36 PM
If the Fv3's Kuchera Ratios right and map. Im going to hate myself. Literally i live right in the I guess warm nose. 4 inchs all around me and im less then a dusting lmao... That better not actually happen.
And what troubles me is ive seen several models/runs show the same little slot like right over me or to close for comfort.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 05, 2018, 06:23:35 PM
The tropical tidbits snowfall map for the gfs 2.0 is seriously flawed. It was last year too. I wouldnít take anything it shows as bank. It shows mixed precip as snow accumulation- nope.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 06:25:14 PM
18z FV3 GFS lol
12+ IMBY. Iíll cash out now, thanks.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181206/0fede46f8150407b6d7ee65ad75336d2.jpg)


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That's the new GFS??   ::)

Less snow in Johnson City than Knoxville.  Lawd, the world's been turned upside down.

Post Merge: December 05, 2018, 06:27:44 PM
The tropical tidbits snowfall map for the gfs 2.0 is seriously flawed. It was last year too. I wouldnít take anything it shows as bank. It shows mixed precip as snow accumulation- nope.


Ah, ok. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2018, 06:41:33 PM
That's the new GFS??   ::)

Less snow in Johnson City than Knoxville.  Lawd, the world's been turned upside down.

Post Merge: December 05, 2018, 06:27:44 PM

Ah, ok.
think a lot of us would .... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2018, 06:42:12 PM
I checked V3 on this site.
https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ (https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/)

Made some sense of the snow totals.  As the old GFS showed, the precipitation changes to snow early on in eastern areas--mid way through the system.  It's seen as a heavy, wet snow by the model and piles on a lot of accumulation.  But is it actually a mix?  Also, V3 shows an additional round of snow with the secondary short wave.  Its fairly widespread and gives many in mid/east TN additional accumulation. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 05, 2018, 07:50:14 PM
Snow model disclaimer:

While there is a possibility that some areas could see significant winter weather with major impacts (particularly parts of NE TN, SE KY, SW VA, and W NC) and at least a fighting chance for many of us we need to use caution with snowfall maps. 

The following needs to be considered
- The tropical tidbits model shows any mix falling as snow
- Models assume that all precipitation that falls will accumulate on the ground and doesn't factor in ground temperatures or compaction. 
- Models assume a 10:1 ratio many times


Often times it is advised to half the amounts shown on models due to these factors.  With that being said you can take the snow values at face value or even greater if banding is expected as models underestimate rates in deformation bands or in any situation where convective bands are possible.   The caveat there is that those values will be localized and there will be winners and losers. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 05, 2018, 09:02:22 PM
I am coming home from the Sierras tomorrow. It nuked here today, so I will bring the vibe back with me. Focus one one area, which mine are thermals. Its going to be interesting to see what a little elevation does with this system. A trip to the hometown mountains look in order, the higher elevations are going to do quite well it looks like
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 05, 2018, 09:17:50 PM
0z NAM anyone ?


(http://i65.tinypic.com/11r3fvn.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 09:18:07 PM
0z NAM. Iíll cash out now. Thanks
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 05, 2018, 09:27:00 PM
0z NAM. Yessa. Bring that baby home to the entire state.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BALLPARK on December 05, 2018, 09:37:05 PM
That's a Home Run for most everybody on here. ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2018, 09:39:28 PM
almost the whole entire state of Tennessee just got NAM D...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 09:41:30 PM
Not to be Debbie Downer, but I do want to stress it is the 84th hour of the NAM...make of that as you like.

I will say, the NAM has been consistently colder than any other model ever since this system came into our range this time yesterday.

The 3km, at the end of its run at hour 60, is lined up perfectly with the 12km NAM at the same timeframe. So that is good to see.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 05, 2018, 09:46:02 PM
Not to be Debbie Downer, but I do want to stress it is the 84th hour of the NAM...make of that as you like.

I will say, the NAM has been consistently colder than any other model ever since this system came into our range this time yesterday.
Booo!!! Lol


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2018, 09:48:32 PM
WE need the gfs to get of its a$$ and throw us a bone.... >:D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 09:53:11 PM
The temp profiles on the GFS make no sense.

At hour 60 it has us at 32F

At hour 66 we jump all the way up to 39F

At hour 72 we fall back down to 34F

WTF GFS
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2018, 09:57:25 PM
The temp profiles on the GFS make no sense.

At hour 60 it has us at 32F

At hour 66 we jump all the way up to 39F

At hour 72 we fall back down to 34F

WTF GFS
there is not one model showing that kind of a warm nose.... don't make sense
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2018, 10:02:11 PM
At hour 60 I have a temp/DP spread of 32/25

At hour 66 the temp jumps to 38 and DP goes to 29

At hour 72, I assume wetbulbing takes hold as our temp plummets  to 34 and DP climbs to 32


If that was to happen I would throw my phone through the living room TV.

The radical temp jump is even higher for areas of eastern KY. Some jump 10 degrees in that 6 hour window. Miami FL goes up 11 and one location in Cuba rises 18 degrees from 12z Sunday to 18z Sunday!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 05, 2018, 10:07:56 PM
Sigh, better have plenty of phones available and TV's ::lookaround::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BALLPARK on December 05, 2018, 10:19:02 PM
What your take on the GFS 00 and CMC 00 Charles?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 05, 2018, 10:28:04 PM
The GFS has locked on a solution for a solid week and isnít budging. Iíve never seen it hold so steady for so many runs. It has varied very slightly over the past 5 days or so. Unbelievable.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 06, 2018, 05:37:07 AM
GFS V3 still holds out hope for north middle TN over to eastern TN from Knoxville east.  Southeast KY wins. Tri-Cities scores, but I don't want to talk about my close neighbor, western NC.    ::bangingheadintowall::

Most of the snow falls with the secondary system still being showing by the GFS.  With the first system, much of what falls is liquid, but it appears a quick switchover to heavy, wet snow is still possible for parts of eastern areas (east of Knox).  Sunday will be interesting.  At least I'll be home and can check my temperature every 5 minutes.   ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: pirates1 on December 06, 2018, 05:57:00 AM
Should the translation be donít hold out on that three day weekend (Williamson County)?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 06, 2018, 06:08:49 AM
The latest Canadian, Euro and NAM all showing at least 6Ē+ IMBY. Euro and Canadian showing about 10-12Ē.

GFS only showing 1-2Ē. I think Iím leaning towards the GFS.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 06, 2018, 07:01:30 AM
Latest Euro and GFS have cut way back on snow for northern Arkansas.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 06, 2018, 07:08:01 AM
The latest Canadian, Euro and NAM all showing at least 6Ē+ IMBY. Euro and Canadian showing about 10-12Ē.

GFS only showing 1-2Ē. I think Iím leaning towards the GFS.


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I think this will be a nowcasting situation on Sunday.  Many areas could suddenly switch to heavy snow and it may stay as snow.  So close--and east TN has so many "micro-climates" that come into play with all the valleys, ridges and mountains.

NAM shows most of the east TN Valley in the upper 30's Sunday morning, but dropping slowly during the day as a northeast wind kicks in.  Even Knoxville ends the day slightly below freezing.   Tri-Cities drops from 37 to the upper 20's fairly quickly during the day.  What will be falling?  Sleet, freezing rain, snow?  All the above?  Will it switch to snow before we even get down to freezing?  Going to be a fun day to watch, whatever happens.  Just hope by Monday most here on the board have a reason to celebrate. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Charles L. on December 06, 2018, 07:12:01 AM
To avoid confusion, do you all mind to post discussions about the upcoming threat in the thread I created this morning? Thanks!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 06, 2018, 07:17:28 AM
To avoid confusion, do you all mind to post discussions about the upcoming threat in the thread I created this morning? Thanks!

I'm so wound up over a possible snow, I may start posting in the summer thread, accidently.   ;D
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 07, 2018, 10:21:50 AM
That bowling bowl that has been showing up at the end of the last few Euro runs have me....interested.  ::pondering::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 07, 2018, 10:23:35 AM
That bowling bowl that has been showing up at the end of the last few Euro runs have me....interested.  ::pondering::
I havenít even been looking past Monday lol. I need to look at that.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 07, 2018, 11:07:14 AM
That bowling bowl that has been showing up at the end of the last few Euro runs have me....interested.  ::pondering::
yeah. Me too... now since I looked at euro longer range .... like see center the slp 100
Miles further south... but holy Jesus Batman... what system...

Post Merge: December 07, 2018, 12:53:36 PM
Wow. Euro sure going be extremely active late next week  ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on December 07, 2018, 07:04:56 PM
yeah. Me too... now since I looked at euro longer range .... like see center the slp 100
Miles further south... but holy Jesus Batman... what system...

Post Merge: December 07, 2018, 12:53:36 PM
Wow. Euro sure going be extremely active late next week  ::coffee::

I thought we were supposes to  ::blowtorch:: for a while after this weekend's system?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Skillsweather on December 07, 2018, 07:07:24 PM
We are its going to be mid 50s mid to late week.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 07, 2018, 07:26:51 PM
It does look like that my Mid to Late December blowtorch is going to be more of a relaxation of the pattern.

There are signs that a strat warming event is may begin to set up during our relaxation, I don't know if I would call it a full torch.  If that is the case with a potential +PNA and El-Nino Climatology, winter could deal quite a bit of damage (fun for most of us) across the Eastern USA in January-February.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 07, 2018, 09:28:28 PM
It does look like that my Mid to Late December blowtorch is going to be more of a relaxation of the pattern.

There are signs that a strat warming event is may begin to set up during our relaxation, I don't know if I would call it a full torch.  If that is the case with a potential +PNA and El-Nino Climatology, winter could deal quite a bit of damage (fun for most of us) across the Eastern USA in January-February.

I'm impressed with the number/strength of storms showing up--one right after the other.  All we need is more cold air, and we are in business.  Jan-Feb may be the winter we've all been waiting for.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clint on December 08, 2018, 11:09:49 AM
Looks like another system for late next week with marginal temps.

(https://i.imgur.com/vPZJN5t.gif)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 08, 2018, 11:20:05 AM
Looks like another system for late next week with marginal temps.

(https://i.imgur.com/vPZJN5t.gif)
yeah  the euro is very bullish...  we need some good cold air source  we be in buisness
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: bugalou on December 08, 2018, 11:40:47 AM
I don't know if any of you guys watch Game of Thrones, but this is all I could see with the new season 8 trailer.

(https://i.imgur.com/ufHRyTY.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 08, 2018, 11:44:07 AM
I don't know if any of you guys watch Game of Thrones, but this is all I could see with the new season 8 trailer.

(https://i.imgur.com/ufHRyTY.jpg)
good to be on the north side ... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: mamMATTus on December 08, 2018, 11:54:10 AM
Looks like another system for late next week with marginal temps.

(https://i.imgur.com/vPZJN5t.gif)

A'int no way. Way too warm.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 08, 2018, 12:10:13 PM
Looks like another system for late next week with marginal temps.

(https://i.imgur.com/vPZJN5t.gif)
fwiw ... the ukie model showing major snow storm for midsouth. Hour 138.

Post Merge: December 08, 2018, 12:35:21 PM
Euro running now. Clearly see the big bowling ball digging down in Texas hour 120... could be interesting setup. Late next week weekend ...

Post Merge: December 08, 2018, 12:38:04 PM
Holy cow euro12z next week late  ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 09, 2018, 01:42:12 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181209/83217c0d1d00012a32527fa34e87ce19.jpg)

Gfs Christmas Day. Book it.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 09, 2018, 02:11:37 PM
It would be awesome to have some winter weather around Christmas and New Year's. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on December 09, 2018, 03:42:34 PM
I went to meet my granddaughterís other grandparents in Kingston Springs.  It is crazy because every thing is covered in ice here in Dickson. And there is a sharp line on  interstate 40 cutting off the ice right before Kingston Springs. Amazing that 300ft more in elevation made that much of a difference.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on December 09, 2018, 04:52:17 PM
It would be awesome to have some winter weather around Christmas and New Year's.

That would be awesome!


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: lyngo on December 09, 2018, 06:33:25 PM
(http://i66.tinypic.com/2w5lvh4.png)

Like the late Sam Cooke said.."Bring it on home"!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 09, 2018, 09:03:13 PM
Major cool-down in store for Christmas  8) Hopefully a statewide winter storm will accompany it.

This time, it's Middle, Southern Middle and Chattanooga's turn.

Post Merge: December 09, 2018, 09:04:35 PM
Quote
Like the late Sam Cooke said.."Bring it on home"!

His death was sketchy.... I think he was set up.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2018, 01:33:43 PM
Boy... to bad we donít have a nice source of fresh cold air to tap.... euro keeps spitting out big bowling balls...  nice systems ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 10, 2018, 03:13:27 PM
Boy... to bad we donít have a nice source of fresh cold air to tap.... euro keeps spitting out big bowling balls...  nice systems ...

Nice low tracks, bowling ball lows, hopefully the pattern repeats in a month or so.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 10, 2018, 03:16:07 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181210/21bf9b439d45dd38b7dc52f8f3898d4f.jpg)

Euro seasonal for Dec-Feb. Hope that works out
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2018, 03:38:54 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181210/21bf9b439d45dd38b7dc52f8f3898d4f.jpg)

Euro seasonal for Dec-Feb. Hope that works out
if that does pan out... we are going to be in business big time ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: WXHD on December 10, 2018, 04:06:22 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181210/21bf9b439d45dd38b7dc52f8f3898d4f.jpg)

Euro seasonal for Dec-Feb. Hope that works out

Whatís it showing? Heavily below average temps?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2018, 04:16:39 PM
Look at nam 18z hour 84... heavy snow Texas Oklahoma ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: joemomma on December 10, 2018, 04:23:32 PM
How confident are we in the washout for this upcoming weekend?  I'm wanting to get some hammock camping done up at Big South Fork, but don't really want to have to swim to do it.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 10, 2018, 04:27:41 PM
Whatís it showing? Heavily below average temps?

It is showing the heights.  The reds are + heights which equal higher pressure and the blue are lower heights which are lower pressures.  This model suggests ridging in the Western USA/Canada or a -EPO/+PNA which is good for us and ridging in Greenland or an -AO and potentially an -NAO which is good for us as well.   

All of that with a fairly active subtropical jet would equal good times for our area and pretty much the entirety of the Southeast, Northeast, and Southern portions of the Midwest.   
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 10, 2018, 05:24:27 PM
A quick news break to pass along Voyager 2 just left our Solar System, or heliopause, to join it's twin, Voyager 1, in interstellar space.  Launched in 1977 for those who were around back then.

https://www.ibtimes.co.in/nasas-voyager-2-has-left-solar-system-second-earth-made-object-reach-interstellar-space-787632 (https://www.ibtimes.co.in/nasas-voyager-2-has-left-solar-system-second-earth-made-object-reach-interstellar-space-787632)

We now return you to your regularly scheduled program already in progress. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: WXHD on December 10, 2018, 05:39:04 PM
How confident are we in the washout for this upcoming weekend?  I'm wanting to get some hammock camping done up at Big South Fork, but don't really want to have to swim to do it.

Whatís your setup? I moved exclusively to hammocks a few years ago after getting my tent soaked. Last year got 3 inches in an hour and I was dry as a bone in the hammock. I tend to geek out over hammock setups.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Eric on December 10, 2018, 06:56:00 PM
Look at nam 18z hour 84... heavy snow Texas Oklahoma ...

And rain for us.  Hard to find anything frozen when the temp is in the mid-40s.

But the GooFuS brings back the Christmas Day storm.  *yawns*
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2018, 07:05:37 PM
And rain for us.  Hard to find anything frozen when the temp is in the mid-40s.

But the GooFuS brings back the Christmas Day storm.  *yawns*

Time to start a Christmas Snowstorm thread.... Where's Mr. Wonderful when you need him?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2018, 07:27:15 PM
The way the experts talk ... you think the second cometh of the ice age is coming soon .... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 10, 2018, 08:14:25 PM
Kinda wonder if we wonít see a freezing fog advisory later tonight.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on December 10, 2018, 08:35:42 PM
Kinda wonder if we wonít see a freezing fog advisory later tonight.
Was just wondering the same thing. Apparently several north Alabama counties are on a two hour delay in the morning.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2018, 08:59:38 PM
Pacific Northwest is getting blasted with precipitation through Christmas. I'll bet the skiing in Oregon, Washington and British Columbia is stellar.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 10, 2018, 09:03:49 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181211/2001bbf35c43b1165138b1bbc8ce1a8b.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: dwagner88 on December 10, 2018, 09:28:15 PM
Please tell me the rain is going to end soon. I feel like Iíve moved to the PNW.

Post Merge: December 10, 2018, 09:31:27 PM
Was just wondering the same thing. Apparently several north Alabama counties are on a two hour delay in the morning.
We are here as well. Even though we havenít been below freezing since the middle of last week. We delayed this morning also. I couldnít tell you why. It was 37 degrees at 2000í this morning. Nobody in the county had ice. I understand the delays for tomorrow though. There is already fog forming and I am at 32 IMBY.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 10, 2018, 10:06:13 PM
Pacific Northwest is getting blasted with precipitation through Christmas. I'll bet the skiing in Oregon, Washington and British Columbia is stellar.

At elevation is it off the chain. Snowpack early has been had a lot of water content which has been awesome and is necessary to produce a good base. Stephens Pass and Crystal Mountain and even Mt Baker has had stellar days this year. I have been further South in the Sierras which the season has been off to a great start as of a month ago.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2018, 11:55:14 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181211/2001bbf35c43b1165138b1bbc8ce1a8b.jpg)

That's the El NiŮo we know and love.

Most of TN receives 3-4" of snowfall from mid-December through February. This means we are likely to receive about 6" of snow statewide through February 1st. If it happens, this would be the best winter we've had in several years.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 11, 2018, 04:30:04 AM
Was supposed to be in the 20's this morning, but woke up to 33 and dense fog.  Dewpoint was stubborn and didn't budge overnight.

Post Merge: December 11, 2018, 04:38:03 AM
That's the El NiŮo we know and love.

Most of TN receives 3-4" of snowfall from mid-December through February. This means we are likely to receive about 6" of snow statewide through February 1st. If it happens, this would be the best winter we've had in several years.

This pattern is ripe for more overproducing snowstorms, as western NC just witnessed.  It's very possible we'll see more of those, and one could have a target set on Big Orange Nation. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: joemomma on December 11, 2018, 08:36:12 AM

Whatís your setup? I moved exclusively to hammocks a few years ago after getting my tent soaked. Last year got 3 inches in an hour and I was dry as a bone in the hammock. I tend to geek out over hammock setups.

I just moved to a ENO doublenest this fall, had been using a single Yukon outfitters.  I have some cheap poly tree straps from Amazon, but they are rock solid and don't stretch at all.  I have some Atlas straps that I don't use that came with my ENO.  I use a Chill Gorilla tarp, it's huge like 10x10 or 10x12.  I'd actually like to go to a bit smaller one, as this one is pretty heavy.  I've got some new quilts coming from a store on Etsy that I hope to try this weekend.  Let me know if you're interested and I can send you a link! 

As for staying dry, I've never gotten wet in my hammock either.  It's all about how you pitch your tarp, I think. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 11, 2018, 08:37:30 AM
At elevation is it off the chain.

LOL, off the chain? Haven't heard that phrase in a while. Takes me back a few years.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 11, 2018, 08:37:44 AM
That's the El NiŮo we know and love.

Most of TN receives 3-4" of snowfall from mid-December through February. This means we are likely to receive about 6" of snow statewide through February 1st. If it happens, this would be the best winter we've had in several years.
I got right at 11 inches in 2 snows within a week last year. That's all we got for the year but it beats 6 inches easy. But I do like that it is showing Tennessee as a whole receiving snowfall. ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: WXHD on December 11, 2018, 09:05:53 AM
I just moved to a ENO doublenest this fall, had been using a single Yukon outfitters.  I have some cheap poly tree straps from Amazon, but they are rock solid and don't stretch at all.  I have some Atlas straps that I don't use that came with my ENO.  I use a Chill Gorilla tarp, it's huge like 10x10 or 10x12.  I'd actually like to go to a bit smaller one, as this one is pretty heavy.  I've got some new quilts coming from a store on Etsy that I hope to try this weekend.  Let me know if you're interested and I can send you a link! 

As for staying dry, I've never gotten wet in my hammock either.  It's all about how you pitch your tarp, I think.

Nice. Iím in a Dutchware 11í with Whoopie slings, Yukon 10x12 tarp and a snugpak underquilt. Enjoy your outing this weekend!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 11, 2018, 09:10:14 AM
I got right at 11 inches in 2 snows within a week last year. That's all we got for the year but it beats 6 inches easy. But I do like that it is showing Tennessee as a whole receiving snowfall. ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
yeah. I got 10.5 inches from The two snows last January ... it was nice....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 11, 2018, 09:26:31 AM
LOL, off the chain? Haven't heard that phrase in a while. Takes me back a few years.

That's a Guy Fieri-ism.

"Oh man, this burger is KILLER! Mmmmm!" *voraciously devours helpless burger, smearing grease and mayonnaise over his chin* "Now THAT is off the chain!"
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Drifter49 on December 11, 2018, 09:31:16 AM
That's the El NiŮo we know and love.

Most of TN receives 3-4" of snowfall from mid-December through February. This means we are likely to receive about 6" of snow statewide through February 1st. If it happens, this would be the best winter we've had in several years.

Double digits or bust.


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 11, 2018, 09:42:27 AM
I got right at 11 inches in 2 snows within a week last year. That's all we got for the year but it beats 6 inches easy. But I do like that it is showing Tennessee as a whole receiving snowfall. ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

yeah. I got 10.5 inches from The two snows last January ... it was nice....

(http://i66.tinypic.com/acsc9j.jpg)

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on December 11, 2018, 09:46:59 AM
Most of TN receives 3-4" of snowfall from mid-December through February. This means we are likely to receive about 6" of snow statewide through February 1st. If it happens, this would be the best winter we've had in several years.

You've got your sights set way to low. The long-term snow drought has warped us into thinking that simply reaching double digits is a big year outside of elevated areas. The Nashville to Knoxville corridor is way overdue for a couple of 15" to 25" years.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 11, 2018, 10:39:35 AM
You've got your sights set way to low. The long-term snow drought has warped us into thinking that simply reaching double digits is a big year outside of elevated areas. The Nashville to Knoxville corridor is way overdue for a couple of 15" to 25" years.

I'm basing that off the Euro model, which calls for about 150% of our average through the next 46 days.

You realize most places in Tennessee receive 5-8" of snow pet winter, right? I'm basing this off of our average. I'm not trying to predict blockbuster storms. My post infers the probability of TN cities exceeding 6" of snowfall through February 1.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Cody on December 11, 2018, 11:30:39 AM
Freezing fog was a nice surprise this morning.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181211/a14d8331e8a1103c6b54deff83d6908a.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181211/9f678a70c5b44eb3e556a29425c5f0ee.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181211/d4c1ca5f43ed4f894b41b067badf7583.jpg)


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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 11, 2018, 11:51:45 AM
I'm basing that off the Euro model, which calls for about 150% of our average through the next 46 days.

You realize most places in Tennessee receive 5-8" of snow pet winter, right? I'm basing this off of our average. I'm not trying to predict blockbuster storms. My post infers the probability of TN cities exceeding 6" of snowfall through February 1.
150 percent of average ... that means we stand a great chance of going way over average this winter ... way I see it ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Thundersnow on December 11, 2018, 12:11:14 PM
You realize most places in Tennessee receive 5-8" of snow pet winter, right?

Projected back 30 years from this point in time, I suspect that's about right.

A lot of us who grew up in the 1980s and earlier remember higher averages. I specifically remember when Nashville had an "average" annual snowfall of 11 inches. That was a known stat from the NWS. But, that was probably 25-30 years ago, when the average was based on the previous 30 years. That's probably where he was coming from.

Yeah- the last 30 years have been considerably more lean than the previous 30 years.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on December 11, 2018, 01:22:36 PM
All of us old goats remember very snowy winters in the 60s. 😉 ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 11, 2018, 01:25:37 PM
Western and South-Central KY have overall had a pretty solid decade this decade.  Last decade was horrible for Kentucky for snowfall with 2002-03 and in some places 2004-05 being the only solidly above average winters snowfall wise. 

This winter 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15, and 2015-16 were all solid and this year should be as well if things go as planned after New Years.

Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 11, 2018, 01:38:21 PM
I've been alive since '97 and lived in Tennessee for a little more than half of my life. I'm telling you, from a young person's perspective, 10" of snow during the winter season in Nashville is a good winter. In my memory, only 2002-03, 2009-10 and 2010-11 cracked that barrier while I was growing up in Nashville. Rest of them were meh. We had those cold winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15 and basically nothing to show for it.

Goes to show that colder winters aren't necessarily snowier! Last year was colder than average through December and much of January, as well as March, and Knoxville had 2.5" for the season. We nearly broke that on Sunday morning when we picked up 2".

Coach B, I agree entirely that Knoxville to Nashville is waaaaay overdue for a big winter. Could throw Chatty in there too. Though Chatty did get some big ones in 2014 and 2015 which the rest of us missed out on.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Crockett on December 11, 2018, 01:41:47 PM
I've been alive since '97 ...

(http://www.emofaces.com/en/emoticons/o/old-emoticon.gif)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 11, 2018, 01:44:07 PM
I've been alive since '97 and lived in Tennessee for a little more than half of my life. I'm telling you, from a young person's perspective, 10" of snow during the winter season in Nashville is a good winter. In my memory, only 2002-03, 2009-10 and 2010-11 cracked that barrier while I was growing up in Nashville. Rest of them were meh. We had those cold winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15 and basically nothing to show for it.

Goes to show that colder winters aren't necessarily snowier! Last year was colder than average through December and much of January, as well as March, and Knoxville had 2.5" for the season. We nearly broke that on Sunday morning when we picked up 2".

Coach B, I agree entirely that Knoxville to Nashville is waaaaay overdue for a big winter. Could throw Chatty in there too. Though Chatty did get some big ones in 2014 and 2015 which the rest of us missed out on.
storm track going be in great shape for us this winter  for everything I read on... should be active souther jet to boot with the El NiŮo... this winter

Post Merge: December 11, 2018, 02:00:01 PM
The winter of 1984 1985. We had little over 30 inches here that winter total snow... unreal

Post Merge: December 11, 2018, 02:04:40 PM
All of us old goats remember very snowy winters in the 60s. 😉 ::snowman::
i was born in 60s. ... donít remember many them ... remember all the 70s good ...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: jfranklin on December 11, 2018, 02:46:44 PM
Growing up in southern Virginia in the 80's-90's, snow was infrequent and rarely significant (I can remember maybe 3 storms of my entire childhood).  My parents lived in Nashville in the 70's before moving back home, and they would regale us with tales of huge snow storms... usually by the fire while a 34-degree rain soaked our hopes and dreams, and points just north of us got the good stuff.

So I move to Nashville 10 years ago thinking I was finally in the promised land. As everyone here knows, the past decade resembles my childhood far more than I'd hoped.  While that's certainly disappointing, the truly frustrating part is the snow total from this one storm in my hometown... 18 inches.

TL;DR: I'm moving to Minnesota, eh.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: wfrogge on December 11, 2018, 02:59:00 PM
The 70s and 80s in Memphis were a good time for monster snows and major ice storms.  After that (minus the 94 ice storm event) some winters would only output around an inch if even that. Our winter climate has changed and there is zero guarantee it will change back. All this talk about "we are due" is FUD.... We are not due anything  ::lookaround::
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: joemomma on December 11, 2018, 03:53:25 PM
Nice. Iím in a Dutchware 11í with Whoopie slings, Yukon 10x12 tarp and a snugpak underquilt. Enjoy your outing this weekend!

Very nice!  I'm intrigued by the whoopie slings - looks like a great setup as far as adjustments.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: spanarkle08 on December 11, 2018, 04:12:29 PM
All of us old goats remember very snowy winters in the 60s. 😉 ::snowman::

Graduated from high school in 79, seemed like it snowed every day in Jan. in south middle TN. Never melted, gravel roads and trees blocking the sun down in them there hills of Moore County!!! 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: StormNine on December 11, 2018, 07:06:18 PM
The I-40 corridor isn't the only place that is struggling.

Many areas out west are getting a lot less snow the past decade or two than they are used to. 

I have talked to people out west and some areas have only had 1 or 2 years that were average or above in the past decade.  The Sierra Nevada region over to Utah has really been struggling during the last decade and a half.



Even I-44 is in a bit of a snow drought as some areas haven't had a big winter event since the Groundhog Day Blizzard in 2011. 
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 11, 2018, 08:21:59 PM
A positive AMO which began in the mid 90ís ironically occurred about the same time snowfall started dropping off. We are on the tail end of the that positive AMO which has actually been 0 to slightly negative as of recent. Usually it takes 25-30 years to flip the majority phase although you can get spikes of one in the middle of the other. Its really easy to follow the colder, snowier winters of the 60ís through the 80ís. In fact the positive AMO of the 20ís to the 50ís at least snowfall wise were similar to where were are now- less snowy with an occasional snowier one in between. Iím interested to see what happens when we have a more robust negative one again.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181212/69563affe47199bf15db96d34a15bd23.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Coach B on December 11, 2018, 09:41:25 PM
Coach B, I agree entirely that Knoxville to Nashville is waaaaay overdue for a big winter.

Sorry, didn't mean for that post to come across as patronizing.

I think in terms of ranges of snowfall. I consider the Nashville area average to be 6-12". Now before you all say that's too high remember the actual range for the different rolling 30 year averages goes up and down over time as Tsnow pointed out. I'd consider 10-15 a solid year, 15-20 really good(but nothing to go nuts over), and 20+ as let's go nuts time!
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 11, 2018, 10:22:57 PM
Found this while scrolling through my snapchat memories today.

[attachimg=1]

Throwback to Spring Break, 2017, when I returned home for a little bit of snow just south of Nashville.
This followed a record-warm February.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Nashville_Wx on December 11, 2018, 10:39:16 PM
Sitting here in NH watching chunks of ice float down the Sugar River in Claremont. Puts into perspective how far away we are from "Winter" in the South. 10" a year would be a great avg for Nashville. Anyone have the 5,10,15,20 year moving avg?
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Michael on December 12, 2018, 10:59:21 AM
fwiw, the GFS has been picking up on a potential storm around the 24th-25th timeframe for several runs now. It's usually good in the 10-15 day range at picking up on a signal of a storm. However, beyond 10 days out, it's a crap shoot on all the details. Could be rain, could be snow. could just miss us. It's shown both rain and snow over the last 5 or so runs. Something to keep an eye on over the next several days.  ::popcorn::

The GFS picked up on this past weekend's storm about 10 days or so prior.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: NismoWx on December 12, 2018, 11:36:24 AM
I am merely posting to get this thread above 666 posts.

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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Clay on December 12, 2018, 10:36:42 PM
After a damp start to the weekend a nice week long stretch of sunny cool weather setups up on Sunday. Nice treat heading into Mid-December.  8)
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JayCee on December 13, 2018, 05:17:27 PM
Sorry, didn't mean for that post to come across as patronizing.

I think in terms of ranges of snowfall. I consider the Nashville area average to be 6-12". Now before you all say that's too high remember the actual range for the different rolling 30 year averages goes up and down over time as Tsnow pointed out. I'd consider 10-15 a solid year, 15-20 really good(but nothing to go nuts over), and 20+ as let's go nuts time!


Time is short.  Let's go nuts this year. 
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: JHart on December 13, 2018, 05:49:29 PM
I am merely posting to get this thread above 666 posts.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

The Devil you say...
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: NismoWx on December 13, 2018, 06:54:12 PM
The Devil you say...
Well it was that post # until the quake posts were merged into another thread.

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Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: snowdog on December 13, 2018, 07:59:25 PM
Maue tweeted long range Euro. Pretty warm through Christmas and maybe into first of January.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 13, 2018, 08:34:55 PM
Maue tweeted long range Euro. Pretty warm through Christmas and maybe into first of January.
hard to find any cold air even in fantasy land on most models ....
Title: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Curt on December 13, 2018, 08:42:16 PM
Maue tweeted long range Euro. Pretty warm through Christmas and maybe into first of January.
MJO in phases 3-5 for the next 3 weeks. Not gonna get cold and snow outbreaks in those. Most likely will have to be wait until early to mid January. Still not going to be overly warm even in those phases.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: BRUCE on December 13, 2018, 09:05:43 PM
MJO in phases 3-5 for the next 3 weeks. Not gonna get cold and snow outbreaks in those. Most likely will have to be wait until early to mid January. Still not going to be overly warm even in those phases.
i personally ready for a break ... bring in the warmer temps for a while ... get some work done outside I need to finish up ....
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: schneitzeit on December 13, 2018, 09:10:02 PM
I'll take it in stride and make the most out of distance runs in 50 degree weather.
Title: Re: Winter 2018-19
Post by: Beth on December 13, 2018, 09:12:20 PM
MJO in phases 3-5 for the next 3 weeks. Not gonna get cold and snow outbreaks in those. Most likely will have to be wait until early to mid January. Still not going to be overly warm even in those phases.
I am fine with that. Not fun being stuck inside for 2.5 weeks while granddaughter is on Christmas break and like last Christmas where it was too cold to play outside. It would have been fun to see a few snow showers on Christmas morning though.  ::snowman::