Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Severe Weather => Topic started by: bugalou on June 02, 2018, 03:07:11 PM

Title: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: bugalou on June 02, 2018, 03:07:11 PM
I figure with summer ramping up it may be good to start a thread to track MCS threats.  Since they can be tough to predict, having dedicated threads is probably bad.

any ways, us here in the west have a decent chance of strong storms this evening with the cold fropa enhanced with an MCV picked up in southern MO.

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.gif)
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: JayCee on June 17, 2018, 07:10:44 AM
So far, MCS "season" has been as slow as spring severe season.  Pretty benign weather pattern in place, until possibly late week.  Even then, just a weak front settling in to provide chances of scattered storms.   
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Charles L. on June 19, 2018, 07:34:16 AM
These summertime pop up storms we are seeing have been potent. Iíve already had penny to nickel size hail at my house and Gallatin has already had the same plus some wind damage.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Adam on June 19, 2018, 10:27:53 AM
SPC has not outlined any risk area yet, but we need to keep an eye on Friday. The cutoff low affecting the Mountain West will advect into the Ohio Valley and there will actually be some moderate upper level winds. Does not take much forcing in the summertime to get thunderstorms going and 30-40 kts of 0-6 km shear should keep the storm type organized. Right now the best kinematics appear to be south of I-40, but if anything occurs it will quickly evolve into some type of MCS with only ~100 m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: CT_Yankee on June 19, 2018, 01:17:06 PM
So far, MCS "season" has been as slow as spring severe season.  Pretty benign weather pattern in place, until possibly late week.  Even then, just a weak front settling in to provide chances of scattered storms.
July generally seems to be "peak MCS season" around here so not counting it out yet by any means.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on June 20, 2018, 04:03:46 AM
Iím not sure if that other ďsummerĒ thread is a joke/banter thread, and this is the serious one or what, so Iíll put this here.

Day 3 outlook text for Friday...

Quote
   ...Lower MS Valley to the OH Valley...
   A large area of thunderstorm potential will exist from the MS River
   to the Appalachians with substantial moisture in place and
   relatively cool air aloft with the upper trough. The most likely
   area for severe storms appears to be from the Arklatex into northern
   AL, and northward into KY. However, given the likelihood of
   antecedent outflows and early/ongoing storms, predictability is low.
   A Slight Risk may be needed in some parts of the area in later
   outlooks
.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: JayCee on June 20, 2018, 06:37:59 AM
Storm chances take a big jump over the next few days in a more active pattern.  Welcome rain for the garden here.  Topsoil is pretty dried out after a hot, rainless week. 

Post Merge: June 20, 2018, 03:35:57 PM
Been rather dry in east TN per MRX:

Quote
The combination of a weakening ridge,
a modest amount of instability, and high precipitable water
content will mean widespread showers and thunderstorms for
Thursday, with the threat of some localized heavy rains. The
threat of flash flooding, at least with this initial onset of
precipitation, is uncertain. We have been exceptionally dry over
the last two weeks, with much of eastern TN, southwest VA, and
southwest NC, having seen less than 50 percent of normal rainfall
for that 2 week time span. In fact, much of the Tennessee Valley
has seen only 25 to 50 percent of normal rain for the last 2
weeks.
So while localized, heavy downpours are certainly going to
be a possibility in the coming days, confidence in the threat of
flash flooding tomorrow is not very high at this time.
Title: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on June 23, 2018, 05:53:19 AM
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2018/day1otlk_20180623_1200_prt.gif)

Quote
...Lower Mississippi Valley through Southeast States....

   MCS may still be in progress over the lower MS Valley region and
   most likely over AR. It remains uncertain whether this activity will
   be severe, but remnant MCV and outflow boundaries accompanying the
   MCS will provide a focus for additional development during the day.
   The downstream atmosphere will likely become moderately unstable
   with up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. A belt of stronger winds aloft will
   accompany the MCV/shortwave trough, and storms will likely
   reintensify during the afternoon. The environment appears supportive
   of swaths of damaging wind through the afternoon into the early
   evening.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: harlequin on June 23, 2018, 08:40:38 AM
Power is out across a large part of south Memphis/Collierville/Germantown.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on June 23, 2018, 01:25:12 PM
That was quite a feisty storm. An inch of rain fell in 10 minutes. It was probably below severe limits though. No hail, maybe 40 mph winds.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on June 23, 2018, 02:26:45 PM
That cluster has rode the southern counties the whole length of the state from west to east, producing warnings all today. I wonder how far off it is from being considered a derecho.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Skillsweather on June 23, 2018, 03:17:07 PM
The radar looks so promising for rain here. Idk what the hpc is seeing because no models show rain north of 40 really but hpc  has the bulk of the rain north of 40.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Vols1 on June 23, 2018, 04:56:54 PM
Looks like a watch is possible coming up soon
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: StormNine on June 23, 2018, 07:39:09 PM
Tornado Watch for the AL border counties.  Supercells are possible along the remnant boundary.  A cluster of storms in NW AL looks to get going soon. 
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Charles L. on June 24, 2018, 07:14:52 AM
Memphis is having a field day with severe storms this morning. Already their 3rd warning today I believe.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on June 24, 2018, 10:34:07 AM
Slight risk has been expanded further east to include pretty much all of middle TN.

[attachimg=1]

Quote
...Mid-South to Tennessee Valley...
   A well-organized and long-lived quasi-linear MCS continues to
   persist across Arkansas early this morning, likely with aid of a
   trailing MCV across far northeast Oklahoma. Various
   convection-allowing models including overnight HRRR runs have tended
   to erroneously predict a weakening of this convection. It is
   plausible that this MCS persists and even re-intensifies within a
   moist and diurnally destabilizing boundary layer. At the very least,
   the parent MCV will likely provide favorable forcing for ascent, as
   well an enhanced belt of mid-level winds/deep-layer shear, for
   severe-conducive development into the afternoon as it spreads
   eastward across the region. Damaging winds should be the most
common concern, but severe hail and even some tornado risk may exist
   through early evening./quote]
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Curt on June 24, 2018, 02:42:11 PM
Memphis is having a field day with severe storms this morning. Already their 3rd warning today I believe.

Been sucker punched the last 3 days. 5 inches of rain IMBY and another nasty round tonight
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on June 25, 2018, 07:03:01 AM
...while some of us have been missing out. I'm actually having to water the grass because it's turning brown. There have been good to likely chances of rain on several days, but most of it has been missing here to the north or the south.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: JHart on June 25, 2018, 07:11:23 AM
... same here.  The immediate Lascassas area (my backyard in particular) has received less than one inch of rain  since Memorial Day.  Most of that fell in a quick shower about a week ago.  It is amazing the difference just a handful of miles can make in these meso/micro-driven patterns.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Crockett on June 25, 2018, 08:42:19 AM
After the frog-strangler we had a few weeks back, we've been bone dry here. I came back from vacation expecting to find that it had rained. Instead, I find that most of the grass at my office is turning brown. It's really abnormally dry for mid June.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Skillsweather on June 25, 2018, 08:48:17 AM
Same here but i think ive missed more. My grass that usually browns easily is still really green. Dont ask how no clue..  Its like each week we have storms to look forward to and it ends up falling apart going north or south or forming east of me. Thats summer time for you. From what ive seen north nashville has been the sweet spot and south west corner of mid tn.

Edit. Also the latest HRRR gives us hope tonight. We will see. It showed rain this weekend for me to several times though but again we will see.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: harlequin on June 25, 2018, 10:55:52 PM
Been sucker punched the last 3 days. 5 inches of rain IMBY and another nasty round tonight

I moved out west recently, but was "home" in Midtown last week. We missed multiple storms and got maybe an inch and a half. Crazy lightning shows though. Might be the last time I see any for a minute!

4,600 still without power from Saturday morning's storms.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Skillsweather on June 26, 2018, 11:32:37 AM
Last night didnt pan out but we are under slight risk and tonight looks good. Once again we will see. Kind of sounds like a broken record.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: StormNine on June 26, 2018, 11:58:40 AM
The morning MCS across IL/IN/KY should leave a nice outflow boundary somewhere in northern Tennessee that could focus some locally strong to severe storms later on. 
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on June 26, 2018, 05:08:46 PM
Storms have finally moved through MBY today, which of course, is all the matters.

Another heavy cell is about to move in, with thunder heralding its arrival. I think some toads around here are about to strangle.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 26, 2018, 05:16:55 PM
Very intense line of storms moving through southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. Models have had this for a couple days. West Tennessee should be affected tonight if it holds together .

Post Merge: June 26, 2018, 06:05:52 PM
SVR Watch for all of West Tn
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Skillsweather on June 26, 2018, 07:08:02 PM
I wonder if the line will hold together for me. Or will tomorrow actually perform. Today looked so so good but the line went through here fast probably barely got half inch if that. Where i work got like an inch though.
Oh and OHX finally updated their graphics again. Much better. Now it shows precipitation chances and temperature again vs just temperature.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: JHart on June 27, 2018, 08:16:30 AM
I flew in from a Denver math educators conference last night Ö our plane detoured around the MCS from the north, giving me a front-row seat at 28,000 feet for over an hour.  What an incredible, once-in-a-lifetime sight.  Then I arrived home and got to watch the storms from the ground as they rolled in.  I am still high from the experience Ö and a little seasick.  ::applause::

It made up for the crappy snack, flat ginger ale, and the man in the first row who could not be parted from his luggage.

Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Skillsweather on June 27, 2018, 08:47:10 AM
Non stop storming here. Pond filler for sure! Im happy
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on June 27, 2018, 10:00:43 AM
I flew in from a Denver math educators conference last night Ö our plane detoured around the MCS from the north, giving me a front-row seat at 28,000 feet for over an hour.  What an incredible, once-in-a-lifetime sight.  Then I arrived home and got to watch the storms from the ground as they rolled in.  I am still high from the experience Ö and a little seasick.  ::applause::

It made up for the crappy snack, flat ginger ale, and the man in the first row who could not be parted from his luggage.

Cool experience for sure. That happened to me once on a fly-in... we had to circle and circle waiting for the storm to move out of BNA. The cumulonimbus was breath-taking.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on June 27, 2018, 12:32:40 PM
Slight risk across the area this afternoon. Looks like storms may be firing yet again.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on June 27, 2018, 03:19:35 PM
The GFS has been insistent on a nocturnal MCS overnight tonight for the past couple of days. Iím still skeptical.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Skillsweather on June 27, 2018, 05:54:24 PM
The GFS has been insistent on a nocturnal MCS overnight tonight for the past couple of days. Iím still skeptical.
That would be awesome if it pans out. Got much needed rain this morning but missed the afternoon storms to the east/south/west lol Hrrr looks promising for tonight but its pretty bad with these things
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on June 28, 2018, 09:10:40 AM
Knoxville definitely made the most of the overnight storm potential; I almost never wake up to thunder but I was up a good bit overnight because things were so close and so loud.  I had a breakfast meeting and everybody there, who were from different areas of the Knoxville region, had similar experiences.  It looks like the last of it is just now exiting the area, but we've had lots of thunder and lighting so far this morning as well.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: JayCee on June 28, 2018, 09:29:12 AM
Knoxville definitely made the most of the overnight storm potential; I almost never wake up to thunder but I was up a good bit overnight because things were so close and so loud.  I had a breakfast meeting and everybody there, who were from different areas of the Knoxville region, had similar experiences.  It looks like the last of it is just now exiting the area, but we've had lots of thunder and lighting so far this morning as well.

It was a night of thunder and a good light show.  Started around 1 a.m. at my place, and lasted until daybreak.  Just wish it had been Friday night, so I didn't mind the lack of decent sleep. 
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on June 28, 2018, 10:09:36 AM
Itís definitely loud in Ducktown this morning. Probably going to head home early today. No way we get anything done. Itís probably rained 1.5Ē since 9 AM.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Beth on June 28, 2018, 10:25:25 AM
Strong thunderstorm here in Dickson this morning. Heavy rain and pea size hail.  I am sure there is some flash flooding too.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Skillsweather on June 28, 2018, 11:45:54 AM
Good to see the areas that missed yesterdays rain having some today. Small shower at work but hrrr has more forming possibly for even my area. Also might have to worry about training with these storms. Somebodys going to get 5inchs today id bet.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 28, 2018, 11:53:29 AM
Storms are rocking across a lot of the state. Look to be riding the heat dome boundary.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on June 28, 2018, 12:06:51 PM
Watch in effect...

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0231.html
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on June 28, 2018, 12:39:40 PM
Some areas are going to have flooding problems today I think.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: StormNine on June 28, 2018, 12:58:09 PM
That Hopkisville to Dickson corridor is going to have some flash flooding concerns as storms continue to form on what appears to be a boundary. The storms moving into SW Middle TN have widespread wind potential and the classic bow echo shape. 
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on June 28, 2018, 01:29:00 PM
The mcs has moved off to the south but it has left a huge pool of very cold cloud tops. As a result, it is insanely dark outside. We were supposed to hit 85 today. Itís 69 IMBY at 230 PM and the light levels are more like 830 pm.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: harlequin on June 28, 2018, 03:43:47 PM
Y'all are being very mean to Memphis right now.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Curt on June 28, 2018, 05:30:15 PM
Y'all are being very mean to Memphis right now.

(Attachment Link)

HRR brings a MCS through west TN tonight including Memphis. I think it will be just enough rain to raise the DP tomorrow. Starting to get close to excessive heat warnings
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: StormNine on June 28, 2018, 07:00:19 PM
Paris TN and Western KY is under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.  We have an ongoing progressive derecho that is racing across Illinois currently.  It has produced widespread wind damage all the way back into Iowa. 

Post Merge: June 28, 2018, 07:20:06 PM
If it holds then it will likely track over the same areas that were impacted by the MCS earlier today. 
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: BRUCE on June 28, 2018, 08:41:31 PM
bow complex coming out of southern illinois means buisness... wide spread wind damage being reported... watch may be soon expanding south...
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: mempho on June 28, 2018, 08:47:13 PM
Y'all are being very mean to Memphis right now.

(Attachment Link)
Memphis is insane hot right now.  These other people in Tennessee that love summer..... Notice that none of them live in Memphis. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Heath22 on June 28, 2018, 08:50:23 PM
bow complex coming out of southern illinois means buisness... wide spread wind damage being reported... watch may be soon expanding south...

My friend just called from Paducah, 80MPH winds. She was mad because I did not call her and warn her. She was out driving when it hit.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: BRUCE on June 28, 2018, 08:50:59 PM
Memphis is insane hot right now.  These other people in Tennessee that love summer..... Notice that none of them live in Memphis. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
i love it... jackson isnt much different... other than the heat effect at night... from the inner city... i take 10 months out of year
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Beth on June 28, 2018, 08:57:21 PM
We do not need these storms at all!  It tore up jack and flooded around here today. These storms are the last thing we need.  :-\
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: StormNine on June 28, 2018, 09:02:23 PM
Every county from Trigg County and points west has reports of power outages and trees down in Western KY.  The northern tier of the MEG CWA is about to get rocked with some damaging winds. 
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on June 29, 2018, 05:49:57 AM
We got a reprieve from the heat with the pool of cool air thanks to those complexes that dominated the area. But, it looks like itís going to heat up today.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Charles L. on June 29, 2018, 10:51:13 AM
My friend just called from Paducah, 80MPH winds. She was mad because I did not call her and warn her. She was out driving when it hit.

This is why people need multiple ways to get warnings. I tel people who follow my NWS Sumner/Macon County accounts not to rely solely on me to give them the warning  information.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 29, 2018, 05:54:37 PM
That MCS that came plunging out of the north last night really gave the atmosphere a sucker punch. We were under an Excessive Heat Warning for today but on managed 90 with HEat Index of 99. Iíll take that busy every day.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: bugalou on July 02, 2018, 12:06:50 PM
Anyone grab a radar loop of that MCS from last week that went NE to SW across Memphis?  That is one of the oddest storm tracks I have ever seen here for such a large complex.  I thought I saved it from the COD site but I can't find it now.  >:(
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on July 02, 2018, 07:31:43 PM
We've had continuous thunder for 2 hours tonight in west Knoxville but not a single drop of rain at my house.  This is probably the longest I've ever seen this kind of storm just sit and roar without moving.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: bugalou on July 03, 2018, 01:07:57 PM
These stupid east to west thunderstorms are wreaking havoc on my yard.  I have lost a big almost 2' in diameter tree in my back yard last month and yesterday I lost a huge almost 10" branch from a tree in my front yard.  My trees are so use to storms from the west this whole eastern thing is kicking their butts.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on July 05, 2018, 03:35:30 PM
Not worth a named thread as it's expected to be torn apart by shear in the next few days over open water but we do have our second named storm of the season, Tropical Storm Beryl https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-07-05-tropical-storm-beryl-atlantic.  Behind it is invest 96L which looks to be a fish storm, but these are signs that we're moving towards the busy time of hurricane season this year.
Title: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on July 05, 2018, 07:32:33 PM
These storms can develop fast. I heard thunder and checked radarscope- nothing really that close, or close enough to hear thunder that loud. I checked again in 5 minutes on the next refresh, and bam- there it is- a heavy cell had popped up.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: DocB on July 05, 2018, 08:50:19 PM
These storms can develop fast. I heard thunder and checked radarscope- nothing really that close, or close enough to hear thunder that loud. I checked again in 5 minutes on the next refresh, and bam- there it is- a heavy cell had popped up.

And gone just as fast.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on July 05, 2018, 10:18:22 PM
And gone just as fast.

Yep- that cell dissipated quick, and then shortly afterwards, we heard thunder from another popup.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on July 06, 2018, 11:47:46 AM
Mid-day cluster of storms going gangbusters in the Nashville area now.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: bugalou on July 06, 2018, 01:33:42 PM
Yep- that cell dissipated quick, and then shortly afterwards, we heard thunder from another popup.

I have gotten some gorgeous shots of some of these pop up storms.  It is rare to actually be able to see cloud structures here except for these summer time airmass thunderstorms.  Will post them this weekend.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: harlequin on July 06, 2018, 04:43:33 PM
My (old) house in Midtown has been without power since mid-evening yesterday. My best friend still lives there. Guess there was some wind somewhere in Shelby last night.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on July 06, 2018, 06:02:38 PM
Drove through some of the heaviest rain Iíve seen in years on the way home today. Flash flood warnings were out at the time. Of course, I got home and itís bone dry. Plants will need watering if I donít get lucky this evening.
Title: Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
Post by: spanarkle08 on July 06, 2018, 06:28:56 PM
I almost believe we are the only place in WestTN that hasnt had a drop of rain in 5 days