Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => General Weather => Topic started by: mempho on May 14, 2018, 09:42:20 PM

Title: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: mempho on May 14, 2018, 09:42:20 PM
We're wasting all the heat early.... What a waste of heat-  this will likely mean very little chance of heat lightning during the climatoligical peak of summer.  Oh, well, there's always next year. Seems like they don't make summers like they used to.  I remember January 85, uh, I mean July 1980 when it was just 100s for months on end.  You can't even barely get a 100 degree day for more than a day or two in a row anymore.  Kids these days will never know what it's like to be a hot, sweaty mess for months on end or to walk in from being outside and find you have more salt on your elbow than a Lay's potato chip.  Oh, those were the days, man.  Those were the days... It used to get so hot that people would run to church for fear of an enternity in ****.

I feel sorry for people like Bruce....

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 14, 2018, 11:30:25 PM
There was heat lightning tonight.  ::rofl::

There has never been a summer even close to 1980 temperature wise.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on May 15, 2018, 12:24:05 AM
I searched for weather data for the year 1980 for Nashville but could not find anything. I wonder how the months averaged that year.

For what it's worth, OHX data dissents from your memories. The longest streak of days >100 degrees Fahrenheit occured in the last week of June in 1952.

2007 holds the record as the hottest summer in Nashville, with a 34-day streak of maximum temperature above 90 degrees from late July all the way into August.

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/otherrecords

Post Merge: May 15, 2018, 12:30:21 AM
[attachimg=1]
[attachimg=2]
This was a nasty, nasty summer

Here's a good summary from Jackson. July 1980 and August 2007 were the hottest months on record.
https://www.weather.gov/meg/monthlytop10_mkl
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: BRUCE on May 15, 2018, 06:05:09 AM
We're wasting all the heat early.... What a waste of heat-  this will likely mean very little chance of heat lightning during the climatoligical peak of summer.  Oh, well, there's always next year. Seems like they don't make summers like they used to.  I remember January 85, uh, I mean July 1980 when it was just 100s for months on end.  You can't even barely get a 100 degree day for more than a day or two in a row anymore.  Kids these days will never know what it's like to be a hot, sweaty mess for months on end or to walk in from being outside and find you have more salt on your elbow than a Lay's potato chip.  Oh, those were the days, man.  Those were the days... It used to get so hot that people would run to church for fear of an enternity in ****.

I feel sorry for people like Bruce....

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
be carefull for what u wishing for....lol

Post Merge: May 15, 2018, 06:07:42 AM
be carefull for what u wishing for....lol
heat just hasnít never really bothered me... no matter how hot or humid it gets....
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 15, 2018, 08:05:22 AM
Here is part of a write up from Jonesboro for 1980. The write up is from 2007.



(http://i66.tinypic.com/14w6izd.jpg)
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Jilly on May 15, 2018, 09:32:53 AM
this year, was going to try to grow some peas for the 1st time

HA

went from frost to 80s

did finally get some tomatoes and peppers put in
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Curt on May 15, 2018, 10:21:40 AM
Summer cancel love the title! I ran yesterday about 5pm, and honestly- Iím not acclimated yet. It was rough. Like any climate, we all acclimate at some point and degree- so even with the ďlower dewpointsĒ- it will feel rough for a few more days.

Saw MEG tweet yesterday that of the top 5 warmest first half of May periods (which 2018 is now a part of), two of the remaining summer periods went on to be well below normal, and 3 were above. Euro summer forecast is just about normal for most with rain picking up soon.


Early winter peek at ENSO looks like weak El NiŮo which usually means an early Fall- being it.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: harlequin on May 15, 2018, 10:32:03 AM
I searched for weather data for the year 1980 for Nashville but could not find anything. I wonder how the months averaged that year.

For what it's worth, OHX data dissents from your memories. The longest streak of days >100 degrees Fahrenheit occured in the last week of June in 1952.

2007 holds the record as the hottest summer in Nashville, with a 34-day streak of maximum temperature above 90 degrees from late July all the way into August.

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/otherrecords

Post Merge: May 15, 2018, 12:30:21 AM
(Attachment Link)
(Attachment Link)
This was a nasty, nasty summer

Here's a good summary from Jackson. July 1980 and August 2007 were the hottest months on record.
https://www.weather.gov/meg/monthlytop10_mkl

Well, OHX may not be the best climate site to use for the effects of 1980. Memphis had 15 days straight over 100, compared to Nashville's 1952 record of 8. I'm sure 1980 was awful across all of TN, but the worst was centered a little west towards the Southern Plains and Midwest.

August 2007 was terrible as well.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: BRUCE on May 15, 2018, 11:01:00 AM
Well, OHX may not be the best climate site to use for the effects of 1980. Memphis had 15 days straight over 100, compared to Nashville's 1952 record of 8. I'm sure 1980 was awful across all of TN, but the worst was centered a little west towards the Southern Plains and Midwest.

August 2007 was terrible as well.
we. Are well overdue for a extremely hot summer...
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 15, 2018, 11:07:47 AM
If you go by humidity and Heat Index, 2016 was rough in West Tn. Many many days 110 to 120.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: CT_Yankee on May 15, 2018, 11:13:08 AM
I'm fine with normal.  It seems like most summers have been above normal with a few exceptions since I've lived here.

(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_temp.gif)
(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_prcp.gif)
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: harlequin on May 15, 2018, 12:50:10 PM
If you go by humidity and Heat Index, 2016 was rough in West Tn. Many many days 110 to 120.

Absolutely. It was also crazy how many days the DPs really pooled in NW TN especially.

2016, 2012, and 2007 are the most memorable hot summers of my life thus far. Also recall August/September 2000 as being no fun.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on May 15, 2018, 02:30:30 PM
we. Are well overdue for a extremely hot summer...

I kinda disagree with that. With the exception of 2013 and 2014, this past decade has been pretty dang hot from May to September. Check out the summary from Memphis:

https://www.weather.gov/meg/monthlytop10_mem



Post Merge: May 15, 2018, 02:35:25 PM
Well, OHX may not be the best climate site to use for the effects of 1980. Memphis had 15 days straight over 100, compared to Nashville's 1952 record of 8. I'm sure 1980 was awful across all of TN, but the worst was centered a little west towards the Southern Plains and Midwest.

August 2007 was terrible as well.

I researched the 1980 heat wave, and you are right: it was historic for Texas, the Plains, and the Midwest. Middle and East Tennessee were less affected under the setup from the jet stream, so I should have looked at data from Memphis, Jackson, and Dyersburg instead of Nashville.

In terms of the whole of Tennessee being affected by exceptional drought and heat, however, we should look no further than 2007 and 2012. Those summers were devastating for our state's agricultural output.

Found a video dated August 1980 from a Dallas meteorologist:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4PRqYHbS5M
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Curt on May 18, 2018, 11:36:37 AM
Long range GFS so gain of salt- but what a cool down in about 10 days.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on May 18, 2018, 12:26:29 PM
Long range GFS so gain of salt- but what a cool down in about 10 days.

Please say no rain is included in that.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on May 18, 2018, 12:54:03 PM
So far my house has been missed by all the rain all week. But where i work on wednesday we got like a long 30-45min downpour.

So much for rain this week.. I dont see how we dont have no forms of drought on the map still. Ponds here are dropping already and with this heat the top soil has to be at least in the d0 stage surely..
Well finally got a rain although i think i need more lol
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Curt on May 20, 2018, 01:25:09 PM
This early summer air mass looks to get completely scoured out next weekend by a cool Canadian air mass. Humidity should drop along with dew points allowing low temps back into the 40ís.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on May 20, 2018, 01:37:22 PM
This early summer air mass looks to get completely scoured out next weekend by a cool Canadian air mass. Humidity should drop along with dew points allowing low temps back into the 40ís.
Sounds good to me!
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Vols1 on May 20, 2018, 02:00:59 PM
Everyone is advertising a tropical low in the southeast next weekend with storms and hi humidity from what Iíve seen
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Curt on May 20, 2018, 03:50:16 PM
Everyone is advertising a tropical low in the southeast next weekend with storms and hi humidity from what Iíve seen

Actually should have clarified- itís next Monday. We see if it can lower temps that much. Looks like a decrease in humidity is on the way with some kind of pattern change.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: mempho on May 21, 2018, 12:37:25 PM
be carefull for what u wishing for....lol

Post Merge: May 15, 2018, 06:07:42 AM
heat just hasnít never really bothered me... no matter how hot or humid it gets....

Do you have to spend any extended time outside during the summer months?

Post Merge: May 21, 2018, 12:39:58 PM
Summer cancel love the title! I ran yesterday about 5pm, and honestly- Iím not acclimated yet. It was rough. Like any climate, we all acclimate at some point and degree- so even with the ďlower dewpointsĒ- it will feel rough for a few more days.

Saw MEG tweet yesterday that of the top 5 warmest first half of May periods (which 2018 is now a part of), two of the remaining summer periods went on to be well below normal, and 3 were above. Euro summer forecast is just about normal for most with rain picking up soon.


Early winter peek at ENSO looks like weak El NiŮo which usually means an early Fall- being it.

I'm all for it if we can "waste" the heat early!!!!  Good to know about the seasonal forecasts, at least!

Post Merge: May 21, 2018, 12:41:09 PM
we. Are well overdue for a extremely hot summer...

Huh?  2016 wasn't recent enough?
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: BRUCE on May 21, 2018, 12:46:29 PM
Do you have to spend any extended time outside during the summer months?

Post Merge: May 21, 2018, 12:39:58 PM
I'm all for it if we can "waste" the heat early!!!!  Good to know about the seasonal forecasts, at least!

Post Merge: May 21, 2018, 12:41:09 PM
Huh?  2016 wasn't recent enough?
2016 was humid .... talking bout dry heat... type.  Yeah my job is outside ....
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Curt on May 22, 2018, 06:17:59 AM
And the tropical system looks to mess up the Canadian air mass oh well. Back to tropical and rainy I guess is better than mid 90ís.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: BRUCE on May 22, 2018, 07:19:38 AM
And the tropical system looks to mess up the Canadian air mass oh well. Back to tropical and rainy I guess is better than mid 90ís.
sure the 90s arenít to far behind for this summer ... three sure things to happen In life.... death ... taxes.... and 90s during summer in the midsouth....
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: JayCee on June 01, 2018, 06:06:23 PM
It's officially here (meteorologically speaking).
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Beth on June 02, 2018, 12:39:06 PM
Yep! Summer is here! Hot and Humid!  But with front coming in tonight tomorrow thru Wednesday looks delightful! Drop in temps and humidity. Nice little break!  Have a great weekend everyone! 😎😎😎
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on June 02, 2018, 01:12:38 PM
The GFS has another wet period towards the middle of June. Not too much heat in between. Itís definitely sticky outside today though.
Title: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Curt on June 02, 2018, 01:17:12 PM
The GFS has another wet period towards the middle of June. Not too much heat in between. Itís definitely sticky outside today though.


Looks like it one of those summer patterns where the heat high is centered in Texas and Oklahoma- which occasionally leaves expands east but leaves us in the northwest flow for MCS and backdoor cold fronts. Wouldnít surprise me for the heat to make one brutal run eastwards with 100ís for a week before retreating. We shall see.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: bugalou on June 02, 2018, 03:02:27 PM

Looks like it one of those summer patterns where the heat high is centered in Texas and Oklahoma- which occasionally leaves expands east but leaves us in the northwest flow for MCS and backdoor cold fronts. Wouldnít surprise me for the heat to make one brutal run eastwards with 100ís for a week before retreating. We shall see.

Any time I see northwest flow aloft in the AFD and its summer I am a happy man.  I know its going to be hot, but frequent thunderstorms help cool things off and keep the weather interesting.   Beats being in the dead center of a forty-zillion dam high.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on June 02, 2018, 08:43:40 PM
18Z NAM is sh***ing snow over Maine and new Brunswick.

[attachimg=1]

 ::snowman::
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: JayCee on June 03, 2018, 11:02:06 AM
Moisture pooling in east TN ahead of today's cold front has dewpoints in the sauna zone.  Last hour my weather station registered a dewpoint of 74. The light breeze does little to help.   

Post Merge: June 03, 2018, 11:25:34 AM

Looks like it one of those summer patterns where the heat high is centered in Texas and Oklahoma- which occasionally leaves expands east but leaves us in the northwest flow for MCS and backdoor cold fronts. Wouldnít surprise me for the heat to make one brutal run eastwards with 100ís for a week before retreating. We shall see.

Similar to 2012 in some ways, although the heat isn't nearly as intense or widespread as that year (yet).  Drought was also centered in the southern plains back then, and the drought outlook shows it spreading in the same areas this summer.

(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/month_drought.png)
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: JHart on June 03, 2018, 01:53:30 PM
Looks like we get to experience "cotton britches" winter for the next couple of days.  Me likey.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: snowdog on June 03, 2018, 06:22:55 PM
Looks like we get to experience "cotton britches" winter for the next couple of days.  Me likey.  ::snowman::

I'm still waiting for the second half of winter. That pattern re-load getting close yet? Too soon? Lol.  >:D
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: JayCee on June 04, 2018, 07:28:23 AM
What a morning.  58 and low humidity with crystal clear skies.  Almost played hooky, but my responsible side won the battle.  Sometimes I really hate him.  >:D 
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: JHart on June 04, 2018, 07:46:58 AM
I'm still waiting for the second half of winter. That pattern re-load getting close yet? Too soon? Lol.  >:D
Best I can tell, the long range models are suggesting late December.  Just thirty-three more weeks;  it'll be huge. ;)
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: wfrogge on June 04, 2018, 08:55:22 AM
Looks like we get to experience "cotton britches" winter for the next couple of days.  Me likey.  ::snowman::

On the west side of the state it feels like "moist tighty whiteys" winter.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: JayCee on June 05, 2018, 01:49:36 PM
 ::sleeping::
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on June 06, 2018, 04:10:31 PM
Enjoy the torch, Middle and West.  ::blowtorch::  ::hot::  ::unclesam::
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: JayCee on June 07, 2018, 08:22:41 AM
GFS has yet another tropical system coming out of the Gulf around mid-month, and drifting into the TN Valley afterwards. 
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: JHart on June 08, 2018, 01:22:12 PM
My backyard weather station shows it is currently 94F after an overnight low of 59F.  Sheesh, it is only June 8.   ::hot::
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on June 08, 2018, 03:02:25 PM
My backyard weather station shows it is currently 94F after an overnight low of 59F.  Sheesh, it is only June 8.   ::hot::
Its not like this is the first 90 day either. This year sucks so far. We had a nice snow and a few other nice events but its mainly been boring and hot.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: BRUCE on June 08, 2018, 03:49:58 PM
My backyard weather station shows it is currently 94F after an overnight low of 59F.  Sheesh, it is only June 8.   ::hot::
perfect. Tanning n pool weather ... got my pool finally in great shape just in time....
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: JHart on June 08, 2018, 08:05:49 PM
perfect. Tanning n pool weather ... got my pool finally in great shape just in time....
Bruce, you are my age... tanning days are done, son.  It's time for SPF 30 and a sensible hat.   ::shaking_finger::
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on June 09, 2018, 06:57:44 PM
[attachimg=1]Thatís quite a gust front about to move through Nashville. Thatís a little over a 100 miles long!
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on June 09, 2018, 07:18:38 PM
(Attachment Link) Thatís quite a gust front about to move through Nashville. Thatís a little over a 100 miles long!
Oh thats a new one earlier there was one coming from north towards me its like right at I-40 and this ones rushing in on it. Might fire up some storms idk. The first one was like more oval spread.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on June 09, 2018, 10:01:34 PM
maybe. For some. Our age ... sorry you feel old... I spend extensive time in gym... still lifting heavy weight too... maybe someday we can have a forum meet...
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on June 11, 2018, 07:29:43 PM
Had a strong storm come through last night lots of lightning and heavy rain (thankfully). And now I have a severe warned storm just north of my house and you can tell its strong on the radar and when i look north constant lightning strikes and the rain is like \ falling from the sky in the distance. No rain here yet though but it looks to be slowly expanding kind of.
Ok getting a storm now its not even the big one yet its very very strong lightning and thunder wise. Like its crazy back to back cloud to ground.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: mempho on June 12, 2018, 06:53:57 PM
Had a strong storm come through last night lots of lightning and heavy rain (thankfully). And now I have a severe warned storm just north of my house and you can tell its strong on the radar and when i look north constant lightning strikes and the rain is like \ falling from the sky in the distance. No rain here yet though but it looks to be slowly expanding kind of.
Ok getting a storm now its not even the big one yet its very very strong lightning and thunder wise. Like its crazy back to back cloud to ground.
Anyone watching this storm encroaching on the Memphis Metro?

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Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: tnwthrwtchr on June 12, 2018, 08:09:45 PM
Getting some much needed rain here tonight.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 13, 2018, 08:02:45 AM
After only receiving 2.5 inches of rain in May we are already at 3.4 for June.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on June 13, 2018, 01:49:56 PM
After only receiving 2.5 inches of rain in May we are already at 3.4 for June.
Out here has been the opposite. I was way above normal for May, but June had been bone dry until today.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Crockett on June 13, 2018, 03:38:42 PM
I'm not sure what kind of storm we had while I was gone to a wedding on Saturday, but it must've been a hellacious frog-strangler. Of course it washed out the road, but that's happened before. It absolutely destroyed the garden. Sure, it's on a bit of a slope and prone to some erosion if it's recently been plowed or tilled, but this was ridiculous. It now looks like the grand canyon and all of the corn and sunflowers toppled because the dirt was washed away from the roots. I've never seen anything like it.

Post Merge: June 13, 2018, 04:08:38 PM
On a better note, I'm headed for the Gulf this weekend (St. George Island, here I come) and I'm sure glad to see that the tropical trouble that was being forecast by some models (especially the GFS) proved to be nonsense. It looks like a week of almost perfect beach weather if that holds...and it's been a while since I've been to the beach when the weather actually cooperated.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on June 13, 2018, 04:12:18 PM
The weather never changes on this side of the pond. Lame!
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: BRUCE on June 14, 2018, 02:45:53 PM
Simply pitcher perfect weather today ...  way I like it ... working outside at work today on couple jobs...
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: JayCee on June 14, 2018, 06:20:28 PM
Simply pitcher perfect weather today ...  way I like it ... working outside at work today on couple jobs...

If you mean this. . .

(https://media.npr.org/assets/img/2010/08/06/lemonade_sq-abc9ba8d17591513356aceedfae13a321137e5b3-s6-c30.jpg)

. . . I would have to agree.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on June 14, 2018, 09:43:10 PM
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: cgauxknox on June 15, 2018, 05:59:10 AM
I was aware that we were getting dry here but yesterday and this morning have really made the point.  I ran the edger doing yard work yesterday and from the dust it kicked up you'd think there was a stampede from an old western movie coming out of my yard; the ground is just bone dry at the surface.  Then this morning I went out to pick up breakfast and there isn't a drop of dew on the grass.  Add that to the spots of grass already drying up and we're going to get into trouble in a hurry with the upcoming heat if we don't have some meaningful rainfall soon.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 15, 2018, 07:23:02 AM
I was aware that we were getting dry here but yesterday and this morning have really made the point.  I ran the edger doing yard work yesterday and from the dust it kicked up you'd think there was a stampede from an old western movie coming out of my yard; the ground is just bone dry at the surface.  Then this morning I went out to pick up breakfast and there isn't a drop of dew on the grass.  Add that to the spots of grass already drying up and we're going to get into trouble in a hurry with the upcoming heat if we don't have some meaningful rainfall soon.
Complete opposite here. Oppressive humidity. Dew not drying until lunch. 95% humidity at the moment.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on June 15, 2018, 07:54:34 AM
I was aware that we were getting dry here but yesterday and this morning have really made the point.  I ran the edger doing yard work yesterday and from the dust it kicked up you'd think there was a stampede from an old western movie coming out of my yard; the ground is just bone dry at the surface.  Then this morning I went out to pick up breakfast and there isn't a drop of dew on the grass.  Add that to the spots of grass already drying up and we're going to get into trouble in a hurry with the upcoming heat if we don't have some meaningful rainfall soon.
Same here its been dry for some time. This year started out super wet here like way above average but then i was missed by all the rain over and over. I did get a good storm/rain several days ago and i thought it was the start of things getting better but no. Now the forcast is all dry with 90s in June.  The ponds are still super low and the creeks was dry but now have puddles and small flow at points (probably from nearby rains and a little left from our rains few days ago). Yet still not even a d0 or nothing out in all of tennessee. But again i say all that and everything is still actually green out. Even the grass although its starting to yellow but not to the degree you would think.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on June 15, 2018, 08:16:48 AM
GFS looks very hot and dry long term. Multiple days of 100+ being shown for KCHA.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on June 15, 2018, 12:45:49 PM
GFS looks very hot and dry long term. Multiple days of 100+ being shown for KCHA.
I mean as much as i hate it. It is summer it happens. Definitely an early start we are having. Im curious to see what this years average temp ends up being because to me this year seems very hot besides 1 month that was cooler. And if the 100+ verifies then we could end up being close to the top 10 hottest years? Idk maybe thats a stretch or to early to even mention but just what im feeling.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: JayCee on June 15, 2018, 07:14:06 PM
Temperatures near 90 and low dewpoints (for June) are drying out the topsoil quickly here.  The high angle June sun is strong with the force of evaporation. 
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: mempho on June 15, 2018, 08:55:55 PM
Meanwhile, there are places in the lower 48 that may get more snow in the middle of June than you have gotten all winter...


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Billings MT 230 PM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 MTZ067-161800- /O.NEW.KBYZ.WW.Y.0031.180615T2030Z-180616T1800Z/ Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains- 230 PM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Wet snow. Additional wet snow accumulations of up to one inch, with localized amounts up to 4 inches, are expected. * WHERE...Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains on the Beartooth Highway. * WHEN...Until noon MDT Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Expect reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for wet snow means periods of wet snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. Be sure to dress for the wintry conditions. For the latest road conditions, call 5 1 1. Additional graphics for this hazard can be found at http://www.weather.gov/billings



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Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: mempho on June 16, 2018, 03:34:57 AM
Very bad things -

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Memphis TN 330 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018 ...Dangerous heat and humidity is expected across a large portion of the Mid South Today... ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>003-007-008-010>013-020-021-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>052- 088>090-170000- /O.NEW.KMEG.HT.Y.0002.180616T1600Z-180617T0000Z/ Randolph-Clay-Lawrence-Greene-Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi- Cross-Crittenden-St. Francis-Lee AR-Phillips-Dunklin-Pemiscot- DeSoto-Marshall-Benton MS-Tunica-Tate-Coahoma-Quitman-Panola- Lafayette-Tallahatchie-Yalobusha-Lake-Obion-Weakley-Henry-Dyer- Gibson-Carroll-Lauderdale-Tipton-Haywood-Crockett-Madison-Shelby- Fayette-Hardeman- Including the cities of Pocahontas, Piggott, Corning, Walnut Ridge, Paragould, Jonesboro, Harrisburg, Blytheville, Wynne, West Memphis, Forrest City, Marianna, Helena, West Helena, Kennett, Caruthersville, Southaven, Olive Branch, Holly Springs, Ashland, Tunica, Senatobia, Clarksdale, Marks, Batesville, Oxford, Charleston, Water Valley, Coffeeville, Tiptonville, Union City, Martin, Dresden, Paris, Dyersburg, Humboldt, Milan, Huntingdon, Ripley TN, Covington, Brownsville, Alamo, Jackson, Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville, Memphis, Millington, Somerville, Oakland, and Bolivar 330 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a Heat Advisory, which is in effect from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening. * HEAT INDEX READINGS...In excess of 105 degrees. * TIMING...Late this morning through early this evening. * IMPACTS...The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity levels will create dangerous conditions for persons conducting strenuous outdoor activities. In addition, there will be an enhanced threat to those especially SUSCEPTIBLE to heat related illness, such as the elderly and small children. Also, remember the dangers associated with cars and always remember to double check the back seat for children. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions, if you work or spend time outside. When possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the occupational safety and health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency, call 9 1 1.

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Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: JayCee on June 16, 2018, 06:12:10 AM
Considering the upcoming heat and humidity, I think we can take the "cancel" off this thread.  Summer's here, baby. 

Good to see rain chances slowly increasing for next week.  We started with 20-30%, and now after Sunday there are 40-50% chances across the board here in the foothills.  A cooling late afternoon thunderstorm would be welcome today, but not likely outside the mountains.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Beth on June 16, 2018, 09:44:53 AM
Yep I think the cancel part needs to be deleted!  It 100% humidity and hot hot hot! My hubby is in West Tn working at Paris airport doing some work on the runway. Heat index is close to 110 if not higher.  Luckily he is a stringbean and no extra insulation so he tolerates it pretty good.
The granddaughter and I are living in the pool that is now like a warm bath!
Hope all the Dads here HAVE A GREAT FATHERíS DAY Weekend!!! And stay cool!  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: BRUCE on June 16, 2018, 11:39:14 AM
Yep I think the cancel part needs to be deleted!  It 100% humidity and hot hot hot! My hubby is in West Tn working at Paris airport doing some work on the runway. Heat index is close to 110 if not higher.  Luckily he is a stringbean and no extra insulation so he tolerates it pretty good.
The granddaughter and I are living in the pool that is now like a warm bath!
Hope all the Dads here HAVE A GREAT FATHERíS DAY Weekend!!! And stay cool!  ::snowman::
yeah pretty muggy out.  But itís nice ... Iím in your hometown Dickson now... shopping with sis n law ...
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: JayCee on June 17, 2018, 06:34:32 AM
With the ridge holding strong, higher POPs have been pushed off to Wednesday now.  Speaking of a different kind of Pops, hope everyone has a good Father's day!

Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: StormNine on June 17, 2018, 10:12:46 AM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Marquette MI
748 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY...

The National Weather Service in Marquette has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Houghton County in western Upper Michigan...
  Western Baraga County in north central Upper Michigan...
  Northeastern Ontonagon County in western Upper Michigan...

* Until 1215 PM EDT

* At 741 AM EDT, local law enforcement reported heavy rain across
  the warned area. 4 to 7 inches of rain have fallen over the past 7
  hours. Flash flooding is already occurring. Law enforcement has
  reported that many of the main roadways have been washed out and
  many roads remain impassable.
Law enforcement requests that all
  residents of Houghton County shelter in place until further notice

A major flash flood occurred this morning in upstate Michigan due to being on that northern end of the ridge. 
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: JayCee on June 17, 2018, 11:20:33 AM
A major flash flood occurred this morning in upstate Michigan due to being on that northern end of the ridge.

The ring of fire around the ridge is pretty far north for mid-June--from the plains northeastward to the Canadian border.  More like the dog days of August.  Stagnant pool of air circulating over us for now.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Curt on June 17, 2018, 11:47:20 PM
Looks more and more like we go over 100 after next weekend. Letís see what this weeks rain can do to ground soil first. The latest 105 at Memphis in 7 days (and lows in the low to mid 80ís) is my worst nightmare.

On another note , hereís the latest JMA for the winter period. Itís early but I like where we are headed for a weak to moderate Nino.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180618/3afbcd55ca791702ff6d565d0b077913.jpg)
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: cgauxknox on June 18, 2018, 08:48:09 AM

On another note , hereís the latest JMA for the winter period. Itís early but I like where we are headed for a weak to moderate Nino.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180618/3afbcd55ca791702ff6d565d0b077913.jpg)
I love summer but it's never too early to talk about winter  ;D Between now and then it looks like we'll really sweat cutting firewood to get ready.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: BRUCE on June 18, 2018, 11:06:41 AM
Looks more and more like we go over 100 after next weekend. Letís see what this weeks rain can do to ground soil first. The latest 105 at Memphis in 7 days (and lows in the low to mid 80ís) is my worst nightmare.

On another note , hereís the latest JMA for the winter period. Itís early but I like where we are headed for a weak to moderate Nino.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180618/3afbcd55ca791702ff6d565d0b077913.jpg)
winter cancel already .... what that means ...lol
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Matthew on June 18, 2018, 04:32:08 PM
winter cancel already .... what that means ...lol

I guess that means any severe wx is canceled already also. 
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: WXHD on June 18, 2018, 04:59:53 PM
Got my Nest report on the 12th. Thought Iíd share. This shows how much energy I used in April vs May for heating/cooling. I averaged just under 5 hours of cooling a day. June will show a much higher usage Iím sure but, it will still an improvement over last year(I hope) and without a doubt better than our previous home. I did some maths and figured my a/c costs a little under $0.40 an hour to run.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Curt on June 18, 2018, 07:01:37 PM
winter cancel already .... what that means ...lol

Thatís a weak nino pattern that looks reminiscent of 2002-03 and 2009-10. The warmest waters are in the central pacific rather than off the South American coast. It usually leads to a consistently cold pattern with an active storm pattern in marginal cold air to support a winter storm track somewhere across the region.

The JMA in June is about like trying to pinpoint a land falling hurricane when itís 1000 miles away. It tried to predict the same Nino last year but we ended up with a weak to moderate Nina. I think this time the weak to moderate Nino has more staying power.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: mempho on June 19, 2018, 04:49:49 AM
Considering the upcoming heat and humidity, I think we can take the "cancel" off this thread.  Summer's here, baby. 

Good to see rain chances slowly increasing for next week.  We started with 20-30%, and now after Sunday there are 40-50% chances across the board here in the foothills.  A cooling late afternoon thunderstorm would be welcome today, but not likely outside the mountains.
We're not even past the solstice - we are wasting all this heat early.  It's so sad.

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Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Drifter49 on June 19, 2018, 07:54:31 AM
We're not even past the solstice - we are wasting all this heat early.  It's so sad.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Front loaded summer? Lol


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Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on June 19, 2018, 12:59:53 PM
We're not even past the solstice - we are wasting all this heat early.  It's so sad.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Yeah true. But at least it ain't in September. 90s in September are the worst
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on June 19, 2018, 02:18:40 PM
Yeah true. But at least it ain't in September. 90s in September are the worst
Lol what? No way. May june july is worse because usually more humid. Like august and September are always hot but like dry hot and its on the tail end of summer. Hot june just sucks because we have so much more to go through.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on June 19, 2018, 05:26:18 PM
Lol what? No way. May june july is worse because usually more humid. Like august and September are always hot but like dry hot and its on the tail end of summer. Hot june just sucks because we have so much more to go through.

September is an ugly reminder that it's supposed to be fall soon, but it ain't even close.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: mempho on June 20, 2018, 01:11:30 PM
Dear Atlanta (aka "HOT-lanta),

Please change your nickname- those much further up the list scoff at your level of suffering...

Also- two quick PSAs- don't ever, ever, ever move to Texas- even if you get a 7 figure job offer, the heat will just kill you and please remember that a "dry" heat is actually really awful if it's 114 in the full sun (that time I went to Vegas in July). 


Quote
We just released our new Sperling Heat Index, and Iím pretty excited about it.  It not only uses the average summer high temperature, but also includes the nighttime low temperature and dew point (a measure of humidity).

Of the 50 largest metro areas in the United States, Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Houston have the hottest summers, and Seattle, San Francisco, and Portland have the coolest.

Click here to get the all the supporting data in a spreadsheet, including high temperatures, nighttime temperatures, dew point and relative humidity.

Our Sizzling Cities ranking is certainly about comfort, but itís also about safety.  For residents of all ages, extreme hot weather can be fatal.  Our Heat Index provides a way to predict how uncomfortable, and dangerous, summer in a city is likely to be.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, over 650 people die annually from heat-related causes.  In developing the new heat index, my research team examined past patterns of these deaths to hone the accuracy of our model.

Besides the obvious risk to the ill and elderly, young healthy adults and teens can also die because they are unaware of the risk of exercising in hot, humid weather.  High humidity can be especially deadly because it prevents sweat from evaporating and cooling the body.

The Sperlingís Heat Index is unique in that it includes the nighttime low temperature in the calculation.  According to experts, a lack of nighttime cooling can be more dangerous than an extreme daytime temperature. ďNighttime heat is especially bad,Ē said Eli Jacks, chief of fire and public weather services at the National Weather Service, ďbecause your body never has a chance to recover.Ē

Because of the humidity, the heat in Houston feels nearly as extreme as that in Las Vegas, even though Houston has an average July high temperature over ten degrees cooler.  After the desert metros of Phoenix and Las Vegas, the nationís top ďhotspotsĒ are found around the Gulf of Mexico, in the states of Texas, Florida, and Louisiana.

At the other end of the Sizzling Cities rankings are the Chill Cities, where residents can expect to enjoy a more comfortable summer than the rest of the nation.  As one might expect, Seattle, San Francisco and Portland are the three most comfortable places to spend the summer, followed by Denver, San Jose, and Buffalo.  These and other cool summer spots have a moderate high summer temperature, with cool evenings, and humidity that rarely becomes uncomfortable.

Hereís the full list of the 50 largest metro areas, ranked by the new heat index.
Click here to get the all the supporting data in a spreadsheet, including high temperatures, nighttime temperatures, dew point and relative humidity.

Rank   Metro   Heat Index
1   Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ   97.7
2   Las Vegas-Paradise, NV   94.4
3   Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX   92.4
4   Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX   92.3
5   Austin-Round Rock, TX   92.2
6   San Antonio, TX   92.1
7   Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL   92.0
8   New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA   91.7
9   Orlando-Kissimmee, FL   91.6
10   Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL   91.5
11   Jacksonville, FL   90.8
12   Oklahoma City, OK   90.5
13   Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA   90.3
14   Memphis, TN-MS-AR   89.3

15   Birmingham-Hoover, AL   88.4
16   Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC   87.8
17   Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC   87.5
18   Raleigh-Cary, NC   87.4
19   Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA   86.9
20   Richmond, VA   86.6
21   Kansas City, MO-KS   86.4
22   St. Louis, MO-IL   86.1
23   Nashville-DavidsonĖMurfreesboroĖFranklin, TN   85.9

24   Baltimore-Towson, MD   85.6
25   Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN   84.7
26   Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV   84.4
27   Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD   83.6
28   Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN   83.0
29   Indianapolis-Carmel, IN   82.0
30   Columbus, OH   81.6
31   New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA   81.5
32   Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA   81.1
33   Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI   80.8
34   San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA   80.3
35   Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH   80.0
36   Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT   79.9
37   SacramentoĖArden-ArcadeĖRoseville, CA   79.8
38   Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI   79.7
39   Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA   79.5
40   Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH   79.1
41   Pittsburgh, PA   79.0
42   Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI   79.0
43   Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI   78.6
44   Salt Lake City, UT   77.7
45   Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY   77.6
46   San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA   76.2
47   Denver-Aurora, CO   74.1
48   San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA   73.6
49   Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA   72.6
50   Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA   70.3

http://www.bertsperling.com/2013/07/02/sizzling-cities-ranked-our-new-heat-index/ (http://www.bertsperling.com/2013/07/02/sizzling-cities-ranked-our-new-heat-index/)


Also, Tennessee and nearby metro areas that are NOT in the Top 50 largest in the U.S.:

Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR   699,757   89.6
Jonesboro, AR   121,026   89.1
Jackson, TN   115,425   87.9
Huntsville, AL   417,593   87.6
Decatur, AL   153,829   87.5
Clarksville, TN-KY   273,949   87.0
Dalton, GA   142,227   86.8
Knoxville, TN   698,030   85.0
Chattanooga, TN-GA   528,143   84.8
Cleveland, TN   115,788   84.6
Morristown, TN   136,608   83.8
Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, TN-VA   309,544   82.7
Johnson City, TN   198,716   82.5
Asheville, NC   424,858   80.3
Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford, VA   162,958   78.7
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on June 20, 2018, 08:07:56 PM
Thatís very interesting data, but I canít figure out why Huntsville is so much worse than Chattanooga on paper. They should be very similar.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: JayCee on June 21, 2018, 08:17:55 AM
Thatís very interesting data, but I canít figure out why Huntsville is so much worse than Chattanooga on paper. They should be very similar.

Also, that Knoxville was actually ever so slightly worse than Chatty (85.0 vs 84.8 ). Chattanooga, for the most part, always runs a degree or three hotter than Knoxville.  Could Knoxville have slightly higher dewpoints/humidity in conjunction with the nearby forested mountains? 
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on June 21, 2018, 08:50:00 AM
Also, that Knoxville was actually ever so slightly worse than Chatty (85.0 vs 84.8 ). Chattanooga, for the most part, always runs a degree or three hotter than Knoxville.  Could Knoxville have slightly higher dewpoints/humidity in conjunction with the nearby forested mountains?
I also wonder if fog or cloud cover is more common here. Maybe that gets factored in somehow.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Curt on June 21, 2018, 11:44:46 AM
Dear Atlanta (aka "HOT-lanta),

Please change your nickname- those much further up the list scoff at your level of suffering...

Also- two quick PSAs- don't ever, ever, ever move to Texas- even if you get a 7 figure job offer, the heat will just kill you and please remember that a "dry" heat is actually really awful if it's 114 in the full sun (that time I went to Vegas in July). 


http://www.bertsperling.com/2013/07/02/sizzling-cities-ranked-our-new-heat-index/ (http://www.bertsperling.com/2013/07/02/sizzling-cities-ranked-our-new-heat-index/)


Also, Tennessee and nearby metro areas that are NOT in the Top 50 largest in the U.S.:

Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR699,75789.6
Jonesboro, AR121,02689.1
Jackson, TN115,42587.9
Huntsville, AL417,59387.6
Decatur, AL153,82987.5
Clarksville, TN-KY273,94987.0
Dalton, GA142,22786.8
Knoxville, TN698,03085.0
Chattanooga, TN-GA528,14384.8
Cleveland, TN115,78884.6
Morristown, TN136,60883.8
Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, TN-VA309,54482.7
Johnson City, TN198,71682.5
Asheville, NC424,85880.3
Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford, VA162,95878.7

Little Rock should at least crack the top ten. Itís usually warmer than Memphis. Itís all time high at 114 is higher than Dallas.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: snowdog on June 21, 2018, 12:48:16 PM
Seeing some hints on Twitter that long range Euro is starting to show quite the heat dome over our area. Please be wrong.  ::hot::
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: mempho on June 21, 2018, 02:49:39 PM
Thatís very interesting data, but I canít figure out why Huntsville is so much worse than Chattanooga on paper. They should be very similar.

Also, that Knoxville was actually ever so slightly worse than Chatty (85.0 vs 84.8 ). Chattanooga, for the most part, always runs a degree or three hotter than Knoxville.  Could Knoxville have slightly higher dewpoints/humidity in conjunction with the nearby forested mountains? 

Also, that Knoxville was actually ever so slightly worse than Chatty (85.0 vs 84.8 ). Chattanooga, for the most part, always runs a degree or three hotter than Knoxville.  Could Knoxville have slightly higher dewpoints/humidity in conjunction with the nearby forested mountains?
I would guess that topography is likely in the Knoxville/Chattanooga comparison.  With regard to Huntsville, Huntsville is just plain hotter- it's both further south and west (higher average dewpoint and temperature).

Post Merge: June 21, 2018, 02:54:21 PM
Little Rock should at least crack the top ten. Itís usually warmer than Memphis. Itís all time high at 114 is higher than Dallas.

Little Rock is warmer than Memphis- it's got an 89.6 average compared to Memphis's 89.3.  The ranking was only for the Top 50 metro areas (of which, Little Rock is not).  If Little Rock were a Top 50 metro, it would be ranked just ahead of Memphis at #13.  However, it would likely be much higher since a much more significant UHI would come into play if Little Rock were in the Top 50- likely adding at least a degree or two - perhaps even edging out Tampa for #10.  Personally, I'd still prefer Little Rock over some of the Florida cities simply due to the duration of their warm temperatures. 

Post Merge: June 21, 2018, 02:56:58 PM
Seeing some hints on Twitter that long range Euro is starting to show quite the heat dome over our area. Please be wrong.  ::hot::

This won't likely materialize- we wasted all the heat early.  These models keep showing the flip back to hot and it's always 7 to 10 days away.  We've seen this play out many a time before and we all know how the story goes.  Perhaps if we're lucky, the pattern will reload and we'll get another chance at the heat by the end of July or early August.  Meanwhile, we'll just have to sit and endure the big  ::cold:: . 
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: JayCee on June 21, 2018, 03:38:35 PM

Post Merge: June 21, 2018, 02:56:58 PM
This won't likely materialize- we wasted all the heat early.  These models keep showing the flip back to hot and it's always 7 to 10 days away.  We've seen this play out many a time before and we all know how the story goes.  Perhaps if we're lucky, the pattern will reload and we'll get another chance at the heat by the end of July or early August.  Meanwhile, we'll just have to sit and endure the big  ::cold:: .

I get it.  I really do.  ::rofl::

Post Merge: June 21, 2018, 07:21:39 PM
Happy Summer Solstice.  While I love winter weather, summer rules in terms of lighting it up.  In a perfect world, winter could happen with 14 hours of daylight.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: BRUCE on June 21, 2018, 08:54:00 PM
Seeing some hints on Twitter that long range Euro is starting to show quite the heat dome over our area. Please be wrong.  ::hot::
bring it... ::yum::
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on June 22, 2018, 12:33:36 PM
This is literally the only June i ever recall none of Tennessee being under any form of drought. Although we have been in the 90's all month. So strange to have this kind of heat and everything around me still green with very little rains in the past few months minus one or 2 decent storms.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on June 22, 2018, 04:09:57 PM
In non-surprising news KHTX is down...again. What an absolute joke of a radar.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on June 22, 2018, 07:32:55 PM
In non-surprising news KHTX is down...again. What an absolute joke of a radar.

Bad timing down that way too...

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
731 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

The National Weather Service in Huntsville Alabama has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northeastern Cullman County in north central Alabama...

* Until 800 PM CDT.

* At 730 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near South
  Vinemont, moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Emergency Management confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Cullman, Holly Pond, Baldwin, Vinemont, Baileyton, Eva and Joppa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, the tornado threat is imminent. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or
in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Adam on June 23, 2018, 05:09:19 PM
NWS Huntsville found EF-2 damage in Cullman County, AL from the tornado yesterday. Another tornado occurred in Jackson County, AL but I do not think they have surveyed yet. Weak supercells have developed in NW Alabama once again this evening for the second day in a row.

Meanwhile, Lawrence County, TN took a hit from straight line winds for the second day in a row. The saturated soils probably had some impact, but that MCS produced damage all along southern TN.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on June 29, 2018, 09:17:52 PM
I know itís been hot in West TN, but take comfort in the fact that you donít live here:
Quriyat in Oman breaks world temperature record - CNN (http://Quriyat in Oman breaks world temperature record - CNN)
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: JayCee on July 01, 2018, 07:32:10 AM
For those who aren't fans of summa-time heat, Mr. Bailey is of the opinion the second half of summer will swing to cooler than normal, along with a cool autumn.  The emerging weak El Nino could play a part.  We'll see, but some long range models do show a cooling trend later this month.


http://kyweathercenter.com/ (http://kyweathercenter.com/)
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: BRUCE on July 01, 2018, 08:30:57 AM
For those who aren't fans of summa-time heat, Mr. Bailey is of the opinion the second half of summer will swing to cooler than normal, along with a cool autumn.  The emerging weak El Nino could play a part.  We'll see, but some long range models do show a cooling trend later this month.

wouldnt hurt my feelings if summer last into october... ::fingerscrossed::
http://kyweathercenter.com/ (http://kyweathercenter.com/)
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Crockett on July 01, 2018, 04:37:16 PM
For those who aren't fans of summa-time heat, Mr. Bailey is of the opinion the second half of summer will swing to cooler than normal, along with a cool autumn.  The emerging weak El Nino could play a part.  We'll see, but some long range models do show a cooling trend later this month.


http://kyweathercenter.com/ (http://kyweathercenter.com/)

I read Chris regularly, but he tends to be way hyperbolic.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Tom Hensley on July 02, 2018, 01:18:25 AM
I'm gonna start posting here if no one has objections.I post on the American board trying to figure out how to post though here though which seems compl
icated..lol

Post Merge: July 02, 2018, 01:26:12 AM
Think i figured it out,i'm Jaxjagman on American anyways.I always come here to check out the post on what's going on just don't say much.Not to many people post much into Mid Tn or the West Tn on American,so thought i'd give this a try
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: WXHD on July 02, 2018, 07:03:28 AM
I'm gonna start posting here if no one has objections.I post on the American board trying to figure out how to post though here though which seems compl
icated..lol

Post Merge: July 02, 2018, 01:26:12 AM
Think i figured it out,i'm Jaxjagman on American anyways.I always come here to check out the post on what's going on just don't say much.Not to many people post much into Mid Tn or the West Tn on American,so thought i'd give this a try

Welcome aboard Tom!
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Curt on July 02, 2018, 07:05:37 AM
I'm gonna start posting here if no one has objections.I post on the American board trying to figure out how to post though here though which seems compl
icated..lol

Post Merge: July 02, 2018, 01:26:12 AM
Think i figured it out,i'm Jaxjagman on American anyways.I always come here to check out the post on what's going on just don't say much.Not to many people post much into Mid Tn or the West Tn on American,so thought i'd give this a try

Great to have you here, Tom! Outside of hurricane season, we are entering the doldrums minus a few severe storms from time to time. The winter thread usually gets going in a month or so when we get a better handle on ENSO and other factors. Welcome!
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 02, 2018, 07:44:22 AM
I'm gonna start posting here if no one has objections.I post on the American board trying to figure out how to post though here though which seems compl
icated..lol

Post Merge: July 02, 2018, 01:26:12 AM
Think i figured it out,i'm Jaxjagman on American anyways.I always come here to check out the post on what's going on just don't say much.Not to many people post much into Mid Tn or the West Tn on American,so thought i'd give this a try
Welcome and WAR EAGLE!!
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: JayCee on July 02, 2018, 07:58:51 AM
I read Chris regularly, but he tends to be way hyperbolic.

Have to agree on this point.  While he is pretty good at sniffing out long range trends, he also tends to go overboard in some of his forecasts. 
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on July 02, 2018, 02:10:33 PM
I'm gonna start posting here if no one has objections.I post on the American board trying to figure out how to post though here though which seems compl
icated..lol

Post Merge: July 02, 2018, 01:26:12 AM
Think i figured it out,i'm Jaxjagman on American anyways.I always come here to check out the post on what's going on just don't say much.Not to many people post much into Mid Tn or the West Tn on American,so thought i'd give this a try

We're a fun crowd in the wintertime. We live from model to model, and I don't think anyone here will refute that our model-watching habits drive some of us mad ;)
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Drifter49 on July 02, 2018, 02:13:59 PM
We're a fun crowd in the wintertime. We live from model to model, and I don't think anyone here will refute that our model-watching habits drive some of us mad ;)

And then thereís Bruce lol.. Gotta yank his chain a little.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Drifter49 on July 02, 2018, 02:15:15 PM
We're a fun crowd in the wintertime. We live from model to model, and I don't think anyone here will refute that our model-watching habits drive some of us mad ;)

And then thereís Bruce lol.. Gotta yank his chain a little.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: mempho on July 03, 2018, 04:43:59 AM
I'm gonna start posting here if no one has objections.I post on the American board trying to figure out how to post though here though which seems compl
icated..lol

Post Merge: July 02, 2018, 01:26:12 AM
Think i figured it out,i'm Jaxjagman on American anyways.I always come here to check out the post on what's going on just don't say much.Not to many people post much into Mid Tn or the West Tn on American,so thought i'd give this a try
Welcome to the board!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: JayCee on July 03, 2018, 07:03:01 AM
Temps in the lower 90's and dewpoints in the mid 70's make for intense lightning storms, and I had one last evening.  The lightning was spectacular, and mostly cloud-to-ground strikes created some earth shaking thunder-claps.  A few were so close, you could hear it "sizzle" before the thunder exploded.  The neighbors fireworks sounded pretty wimpy by comparison. 

Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: cgauxknox on July 03, 2018, 07:37:57 AM
Temps in the lower 90's and dewpoints in the mid 70's make for intense lightning storms, and I had one last evening.  The lightning was spectacular, and mostly cloud-to-ground strikes created some earth shaking thunder-claps.  A few were so close, you could hear it "sizzle" before the thunder exploded.  The neighbors fireworks sounded pretty wimpy by comparison.
Last night was the longest continual storm for thunder and lightning that I can remember in a long time, it ran about 2 and 1/2 hours at our house.  Out of all that we got maybe 5 minutes of rain, but the thunder rolled on forever.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Beth on July 03, 2018, 10:01:52 AM
Yesterday We had one very small rain cloud sit over us for about 15 minutes. We were in the pool and I did my usual corny joke of ď Itís raining, lets get out before we get wet.Ē  The sun was shining through half of the shower and no thunder and lightening. And the best part was I did not have to water our millions of flowers and veggies! 
Have A Wonderful July 4th to all our members and guests. Be safe too!   ::unclesam::
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: WXHD on July 03, 2018, 11:13:56 AM
You don't see this very often.. "5-Ton Tractor Missing After Tornado."  ::twister::

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/07/02/tornadoes-five-ton-tractor-missing-south-dakota-following-tornado/752475002/
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: JayCee on July 03, 2018, 01:39:27 PM
Last night was the longest continual storm for thunder and lightning that I can remember in a long time, it ran about 2 and 1/2 hours at our house.  Out of all that we got maybe 5 minutes of rain, but the thunder rolled on forever.

The storms were rather compact rain-wise (I got .56"), but I noticed that even after the storm moved on and dissipated the anvil left over kept producing in-cloud lightning well after dark.  It was a highly charged environment.  Pretty cool.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Tom Hensley on July 04, 2018, 09:32:43 PM
 ::hot:: We got up to 97 today with a HI 107 in our parts.Took me awhile to figure out how to post,thanks for the Welcome and Happy 4th ::flag::
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: WXHD on July 04, 2018, 09:43:25 PM
So this was Nashville/Bellevue this afternoon. The station is just a few blocks from my house. It was hot and the air was still. The high number is the ďfeels likeĒ or heat index.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Tom Hensley on July 04, 2018, 10:04:49 PM
So this was Nashville/Bellevue this afternoon. The station is just a few blocks from my house. It was hot and the air was still. The high number is the “feels like” or heat index.

This is OHX ,wish they had this for BNA,i live in Northeast Williamson Co closer to the airport.Thanks for sharing the link though,i haven't seen this before,will bookmark this ;D
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: JayCee on July 05, 2018, 08:23:15 AM
Mid 80's and lower humidity will feel mighty fine come Sunday.  Hope the whole state has a heat break. 
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on July 05, 2018, 08:57:54 AM
It was brutal outside yesterday for 4th of July festivities.

I am nuts- actually ran a 10K yesterday morning with the wife (early before the worst heat, but still bad enough). Then, I cut the grass... before we went to the pool with other family.

I must have sweated a gallon yesterday... and tried to re-hydrate to keep up with it...
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Charles L. on July 05, 2018, 08:21:34 PM
It was brutal outside yesterday for 4th of July festivities.

I am nuts- actually ran a 10K yesterday morning with the wife (early before the worst heat, but still bad enough). Then, I cut the grass... before we went to the pool with other family.

I must have sweated a gallon yesterday... and tried to re-hydrate to keep up with it...

Just reading this post made me sweat.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 05, 2018, 09:55:30 PM
What a difference 6 months can make in Tennessee.

(http://i63.tinypic.com/15z5hzk.jpg)
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: JayCee on July 06, 2018, 07:13:07 AM
What a difference 6 months can make in Tennessee.

(http://i63.tinypic.com/15z5hzk.jpg)

It is amazing what a 23.5 degree angle can change in just 6 months. 
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Tom Hensley on July 08, 2018, 08:53:15 PM
Long range models look warm to me especially into next weekend and beyond.Euro next Sunday for BNA shows temps climbing up to 98 but DP's are only low 60's.Heat index would only around 100.But after that into the following Monday temps still are in potentially the upper 90's with DP's climbing maybe into the lower 70's.Heat index would be close to heat advisory.I don't see much change through out this week,it looks hot to me.The jet is stuck upcoming into Mongolia and China on the GEFS,with HP Japan,Korea and China until the HP goes into China finally.Really think the week after next will be possibly be a hot period upcoming,then a cool down
Post Merge: Today at 08:48:30 PM
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on July 08, 2018, 10:12:50 PM
Long range models look warm to me especially into next weekend and beyond.Euro next Sunday for BNA shows temps climbing up to 98 but DP's are only low 60's.Heat index would only around 100.But after that into the following Monday temps still are in potentially the upper 90's with DP's climbing maybe into the lower 70's.Heat index would be close to heat advisory.I don't see much change through out this week,it looks hot to me.The jet is stuck upcoming into Mongolia and China on the GEFS,with HP Japan,Korea and China until the HP goes into China finally.Really think the week after next will be possibly be a hot period upcoming,then a cool down
Post Merge: Today at 08:48:30 PM

Please tell me it looks dry also.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Tom Hensley on July 09, 2018, 12:20:37 AM
Please tell me it looks dry also.

Some parts of Tn need rains though and are in a abnormal drought,especially into Middle Tn
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: JayCee on July 09, 2018, 06:49:55 AM
Some parts of Tn need rains though and are in a abnormal drought,especially into Middle Tn

The rain has been very spotty here over the weekend, as well.  Some areas had plenty, and many areas had none (my house).  Radar estimates showed some locations getting between 1-2 inches of rain, while within a mile or two of that heavy rain, almost nothing fell.  Typical summer-time storms.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on July 10, 2018, 03:45:10 PM
way the tv people made it sound we was going to have a decent chance at rain today. I was wondering what they was looking at but yeah today is more of an isolated day vs scattered. It did rain at my work at lunch though and you can still feel the coolness (compared to like 90s). Also that Hurricane in the Atlantic has been moving so so slow imagine that near land that would be some major flooding. It barely moved like 30miles in 1day but its moving more now kind of i guess
Almost 4 days over the same 100mile area https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/CHRIS_graphics.php
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: WXHD on July 10, 2018, 09:12:37 PM
Got my first summer time electric bill with my nest. It was significantly hotter in this billing period versus both last month and last year. Itís kinda silly but, I think itís really neat to see how this technology has changed my home. Anywho, hereís my first scorcher bill with the nest and I saved a bunch of money over my old system(I would have accepted a $250 bill.)
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on July 12, 2018, 08:54:53 AM
HPC is showing increasing rains next week. Anyone know why or is it just summer time storms. Looks like a stalled out front or something but i dont look at models or nothing.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on July 12, 2018, 04:02:47 PM
HPC is showing increasing rains next week. Anyone know why or is it just summer time storms. Looks like a stalled out front or something but i dont look at models or nothing.

You have summoned the Grammar Nazi.

Post Merge: July 12, 2018, 04:11:39 PM
Likely shift from a Neutral ENSO to an El Nino will occur over the rest of the summer. NOAA estimates a 60% probability of El Nino during the winter months.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Tom Hensley on July 12, 2018, 10:06:12 PM
The Euro and GFS has timing issues with the shortwave trough the first part of next week.The Euro shows a stronger trough,not sure which one to believe,but the GFS right now looks to be around 6hrs faster.The Upper ridge though is breaking down sooner than what was being shown which looks to be Saturday and not later.Could see some potential strong storms Monday,if the Euro is right these would go into the over night with the showalter index.Dont trust the Euro though with mesoscales this time of year.But we'll see.

Long range looks like another warm spell coming into the first week of August.The SOI rose to 13.85 today,this is more Nina,big jump of almost 28 points the last couple days.The weeklies tonight even look warmer during this time with the 850mb's getting even higher into 25c in some parts,this is a hot signal but just like this hot spell there is a upper level trough so this would be just a  transient hot spell as this would drop the heights back down,least that's what it shows right now.No signs of an Indian summer right now anyways
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on July 13, 2018, 08:54:39 PM
Ate dinner by the pool this evening. I noticed that it felt unusually sticky, even for this time of the year. We had a nice thundershower at around 5 pm that dropped 1.25Ē of rain. The sun then came back out. The DP is now 77 at KCHA. The highest I ever remember seeing it is 78. I hope that mixes out or we will have a hot west TN style night.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Curt on July 14, 2018, 04:10:44 PM
Heat index 109 at 4pm at KMEM. Summer is wearing its welcome out. Getting to that point where Iím counting the days.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: JHart on July 15, 2018, 08:55:29 AM
This soupy air is being very productive out here NE Rutherford County.  We are certainly making up for lost time this morning.   ::rain::
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Curt on July 15, 2018, 06:08:36 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180715/f0bfa1b41aecea65c4a6899df4fae59f.png)

Battle of the outflows....
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Tom Hensley on July 15, 2018, 11:11:53 PM
This board is seriously hard to manuever though,especially trying to do multiple pics,is there a secret to this?
But anyways this afternoons models has some potential severe storms Friday.The Euro has some decent lift like the GFS of -9 and capes in excess of over 3k in Middle Tn.The abnormal Upper level trough for this time of year  brings some decent wind shear.So we'll see if the SPC puts us in a slight risk upcoming the next day or two.With the GFS and Euro both showing the instabilities it seems possible right now.But this looks more like any strong storms should die maybe with the loss of diurnal heating,looks like a decent capping inversion over night right now
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: harlequin on July 15, 2018, 11:48:54 PM
This board is seriously hard to manuever though,especially trying to do multiple pics,is there a secret to this?

If you try a few times, you can normally get 2-3 to attach. You can also  do one in a separate post and the post-merge will combine it into one. Not sure why it's finicky, but the forum is pretty straightforward beyond that at least!
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Tom Hensley on July 16, 2018, 12:00:23 AM
Thanks,i'm sure it's me.Just take time to figure it out

Post Merge: July 16, 2018, 12:07:18 AM
Last run of the GFS in West Tn from tonight GFS for   ::forecast::

Nice if you like severe storms,if not turn your head ;D
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Curt on July 16, 2018, 07:17:35 AM
Major pattern change esp for mid summer with a pronounced ease coast trough setting up this week and for the extended. Goodbye mid and upper 90ís for quite some time. I wonít have any problems for a below normal August to start college football season.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on July 16, 2018, 07:25:23 AM
Major pattern change esp for mid summer with a pronounced ease coast trough setting up this week and for the extended. Goodbye mid and upper 90ís for quite some time. I wonít have any problems for a below normal August to start college football season.

Does that mean more rain?
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on July 16, 2018, 01:56:28 PM
Major pattern change esp for mid summer with a pronounced ease coast trough setting up this week and for the extended. Goodbye mid and upper 90ís for quite some time. I wonít have any problems for a below normal August to start college football season.

Hopefully some rainfall will help wash away the tears of another terrible season
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on July 16, 2018, 06:36:12 PM
Hopefully some rainfall will help wash away the tears of another terrible season
Look at it this way: it canít possibly be much worse than last year. I just hope we donít drop 3 in a row to Vandy. Canít believe I just typed that.

Iíve had rain 4 days in a row now. Itís nice not to have to water.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on July 17, 2018, 04:37:32 PM
I guess the models backed off the pattern change thing? Because the forecast still has us at 90 every day for the next 7 days and dry minus friday/friday night. Bring on low 80s with low humidity or high humidity and lots of storms. These 90s are getting so old and we are not even half way done yet.
Title: Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
Post by: JayCee on July 20, 2018, 02:55:12 PM
Rare forecast for a Tennessee afternoon in July:

Quote
Saturday
Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning and early afternoon, then showers and thunderstorms likely late in the afternoon. Highs in the lower to mid 80s. Temperature steady or slowly falling in the afternoon. Southwest winds 10 mph or less. Chance of rain 60 percent.