Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => General Weather => Topic started by: Drifter49 on February 04, 2018, 07:49:43 AM

Title: Spring 2018
Post by: Drifter49 on February 04, 2018, 07:49:43 AM
A little early I know, but Brucie needs this.


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Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on February 04, 2018, 08:11:44 AM
Bring on severe season I say!!
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 04, 2018, 08:39:00 AM
Spring is really going to be nice, lots of normal temps with little severe is what I see. All the spring storm hype is just hype.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: EastTNWX on February 04, 2018, 08:53:21 AM
I've had one borderline severe storm in the three years I've lived in Tennessee.  That's a lower success rate than winter events by a long shot. 

Early Feb is probably a little premature. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on February 04, 2018, 09:09:23 AM
I've had one borderline severe storm in the three years I've lived in Tennessee.  That's a lower success rate than winter events by a long shot. 

Early Feb is probably a little premature.

You really have to go back to 2011 for the last active severe weather season in east TN, and that spring was HYPER-active for most of the U.S east of the Rockies.  East TN had mutliple severe weather events that year, including the super outbreak of 4/27.  That one was too extreme for my taste.  I believe at least 5-6 supercells tracked up the valley from Alabama that night, and I've never seen lightning that constant and intense before.  By morning, nearly 4 inches of rain had fallen.  That was a fright night for me, and it wouldn't hurt my feelings to never happen again.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 04, 2018, 09:25:47 AM
bwahahahahaha
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on February 04, 2018, 09:44:19 AM
Bring on severe season I say!!
way over due for active spring.... should be good one.... nina tough week... should carry over some....look for a dry hotter than average summer... no suprise here tennessee.. 8)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: meigs497 on February 04, 2018, 11:38:38 AM
All severe will be nouth of tennessee.
Like all the snow has been south. ::rofl::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 04, 2018, 01:37:46 PM
Yeah, I cant wait for a Tornado or Severe IMBY. I hope we are in the sweet zone for destruction and death. ::pondering::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on February 04, 2018, 01:47:40 PM
Yeah, I cant wait for a Tornado or Severe IMBY. I hope we are in the sweet zone for destruction and death. ::pondering::
lmao..... >:D
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 04, 2018, 05:22:48 PM
Don't buy the hype severe will probably be on the weak side for Tennessee this year.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on February 04, 2018, 07:02:44 PM
Don't buy the hype severe will probably be on the weak side for Tennessee this year.
dont. Be wimp. Snowman ... relax
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Hank W on February 04, 2018, 08:27:53 PM
 ::popcorn::  ::popcorn::  ::popcorn::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 04, 2018, 09:28:03 PM
dont. Be wimp. Snowman ... relax
I am relaxed, I got your wimp. I was just giving my thoughts on spring. Nobody knows what it will do, I'm sure we will get some thunderstorms but I doubt we are going to turn into tornado alley. Don't try the namecalling with me. ::shaking_finger::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Drifter49 on February 04, 2018, 09:29:09 PM
Here we go


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Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Crockett on February 04, 2018, 09:29:27 PM
Less than a page into the spring thread and we're already fighting over what's gonna happen.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on February 04, 2018, 10:28:01 PM
Yeah, I cant wait for a Tornado or Severe IMBY. I hope we are in the sweet zone for destruction and death. ::pondering::

Yep, I stopped worrying and feeling bad about that once it set in that I'm a human being with thoughts and feelings that have zero effect on the atmosphere. Nature does what it wants.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: StormNine on February 04, 2018, 10:29:23 PM
My preliminary call is for an average year maybe slightly above-average for severe weather for our neck of the words (KY, TN, N MS, N AL, surrounding areas).  Meaning either one bigger event or a few smaller-moderate ones.  Nationally, I think 2018 will be below average with the traditional tornado alley having a calmer than normal severe weather season (+PNA and the tendency for ridging in the Western/Central USA). 

Just like winter weather, very rarely do two consecutive springs with a similar ENSO pattern or ENSO transition pattern behave the same. 

Nationally, the years of 1918, 2000, 2009, and 2012 were significantly calmer than the previous La-Nina spring and were calmer than normal tornado wise.  It should be noted that 2000, 2009, and 2012 were decently active in our area, even though they were tame nation-wide and especially in the Plains. 

Four is not a good sample size at all, but I want to show that things are a lot more complicated than Weakening La Nina = Active Severe Weather Year.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 04, 2018, 10:43:07 PM
Good write up StormNine. A good realistic summary.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on February 05, 2018, 06:50:17 AM
I have to admit, I don't dislike the Sun appearing earlier and disappearing later these days. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Crockett on February 05, 2018, 08:56:39 AM
Everyone is so uptight and tense because we're seeing so much boring weather. I fear the only thing that's going to improve everyone's mood is if we get a blizzard that dumps 18" of snow from Memphis to Mountain City, followed by an EF5 tornado that wipes Bruce's house off the map.

(Sorry, Bruce's neighbors...)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on February 05, 2018, 09:21:46 AM
My preliminary call is for an average year maybe slightly above-average for severe weather for our neck of the words (KY, TN, N MS, N AL, surrounding areas).  Meaning either one bigger event or a few smaller-moderate ones.  Nationally, I think 2018 will be below average with the traditional tornado alley having a calmer than normal severe weather season (+PNA and the tendency for ridging in the Western/Central USA). 

Just like winter weather, very rarely do two consecutive springs with a similar ENSO pattern or ENSO transition pattern behave the same. 

Nationally, the years of 1918, 2000, 2009, and 2012 were significantly calmer than the previous La-Nina spring and were calmer than normal tornado wise.  It should be noted that 2000, 2009, and 2012 were decently active in our area, even though they were tame nation-wide and especially in the Plains. 

Four is not a good sample size at all, but I want to show that things are a lot more complicated than Weakening La Nina = Active Severe Weather Year.
great report. I agree. With at least slightly above severe season also Ď
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: AdamLewis on February 05, 2018, 09:25:07 AM
I refuse to read this thread until at least March 1st.   ::rofl::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: StormNine on February 05, 2018, 10:12:29 AM
Everyone is so uptight and tense because we're seeing so much boring weather. I fear the only thing that's going to improve everyone's mood is if we get a blizzard that dumps 18" of snow from Memphis to Mountain City, followed by an EF5 tornado that wipes Bruce's house off the map.

(Sorry, Bruce's neighbors...)

We should spend our time creating a cheesy Sci-Fi story/movie where those occur in the same event while we are tracking this boring weather.  We can call it Blizznado or Supercell Snow or something chessy like that.   

Post Merge: February 05, 2018, 10:13:32 AM
Today is the 10th year anniversary of the Super Tuesday Outbreak. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: wfrogge on February 05, 2018, 10:53:35 AM
I remember once as a kid leaving my grandparents house in Smithville that the tornado sirens were going off and by the time we got to Nashville there was at least 4 inches of snow on the interstate.  Of course by the time we made it back to Memphis there was no snow, just cold air and blue skies.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: harlequin on February 05, 2018, 08:53:21 PM
I didn't see this posted anywhere, but I realized just a bit ago that's it's the 10th anniversary of the Super Tuesday Outbreak. It's always hard to believe time has passed, but man, I can't believe I was a junior in HS a decade ago. Also, while we don't have a truly memorable weather event every season, we've had a number of events since then that I will always remember.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/de/Noaa-outbreak-graphic.png)

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/080205_rpts.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: StormNine on February 05, 2018, 09:22:43 PM
http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,1018.0.html

There is the thread about Super Tuesday. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: andyhb on February 06, 2018, 12:24:54 AM
Figured I'd come out of the proverbial woodwork to link to a couple of things I put together in Python for the decadal anniversary of Super Tuesday '08 (read: shameless plugging). Oh and I hope all is well here of course.

A look from four separate radars (KLZK, KNQA, KOHX and KBMX) during different time intervals capturing the outbreak's evolution.
https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/960567295511748608

21 hour RUC analyzed 500 mb, 700 mb, 850 mb and surface loop from 18z 2/5/08 to 15z 2/6/08.
https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/960646262616813568

Tracking reflectivity/velocity loop of the supercell that produced the deadly EF4 tornado that moved through Atkins, Clinton and Mountain View, AR. Longest tracked AR tornado on record (122 miles).
https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/960739280627802112
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: snowdog on February 06, 2018, 09:08:49 AM
Figured I'd come out of the proverbial woodwork to link to a couple of things I put together in Python for the decadal anniversary of Super Tuesday '08 (read: shameless plugging). Oh and I hope all is well here of course.

A look from four separate radars (KLZK, KNQA, KOHX and KBMX) during different time intervals capturing the outbreak's evolution.
https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/960567295511748608

21 hour RUC analyzed 500 mb, 700 mb, 850 mb and surface loop from 18z 2/5/08 to 15z 2/6/08.
https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/960646262616813568

Tracking reflectivity/velocity loop of the supercell that produced the deadly EF4 tornado that moved through Atkins, Clinton and Mountain View, AR. Longest tracked AR tornado on record (122 miles).
https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/960739280627802112

When are we going to get you and Bruce hooked up for a Storm Chase? I'd still like to produce a few episodes of that.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JHart on February 06, 2018, 09:22:33 AM
When are we going to get you and Bruce hooked up for a Storm Chase? I'd still like to produce a few episodes of that.
Oooh, I smell an Emmy... at least I think that's what I'm smelling.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: wfrogge on February 06, 2018, 09:27:08 AM
Super Tuesday was my 2nd or 3rd storm chase. I had never seen LP supercells like these much less LP supercells and watched tornadogenesis happen before my eyes. Was in complete awe..... Tracked the storm that formed over Bartlett and later dropped a tornado over parts of Arlington. Next got the northern Fayette County storm and tried to stay with it all the way to Madison County but could not keep up with the debris on the back roads. All this while calling my wife that worked at the Sams on Winchester telling her to pull mattress off the racks and put people under them as a tornado was headed her way (hit the Hickory Ridge mall about a mile west of her location).
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on February 06, 2018, 09:30:54 AM
When are we going to get you and Bruce hooked up for a Storm Chase? I'd still like to produce a few episodes of that.
i be ready. Just when things heat up
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Hank W on February 06, 2018, 12:25:31 PM
When are we going to get you and Bruce hooked up for a Storm Chase? I'd still like to produce a few episodes of that.

I would pay a lot to see that.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Drifter49 on February 06, 2018, 12:36:21 PM
I would pay a lot to see that.

Must see tv at itís finest.


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Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Eric on February 06, 2018, 01:50:55 PM
When are we going to get you and Bruce hooked up for a Storm Chase? I'd still like to produce a few episodes of that.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/3oz8xxR3P26nCtYpYA/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on February 06, 2018, 01:54:47 PM
I think it needs to be broadcast live.  Easy to do that these days. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: snowdog on February 06, 2018, 10:11:15 PM
Oooh, I smell an Emmy... at least I think that's what I'm smelling.

It would sweep all awards. By far my best idea ever. If you have ever been in a late night chat with Andy and Bruce going at it, hilarious. Just imagine those two crammed in a car, high stress due to the chase...gold Jerry, GOLD!!(Seinfeld reference for Millennials)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on February 07, 2018, 07:27:12 AM
It would sweep all awards. By far my best idea ever. If you have ever been in a late night chat with Andy and Bruce going at it, hilarious. Just imagine those two crammed in a car, high stress due to the chase...gold Jerry, GOLD!!(Seinfeld reference for Millennials)

If you want them "crammed," I found the car.  Just paint it orange, add a power T, and they're good to go.  Anyone want to start the GoFundMe account? 

(http://www.brundrett.co.uk/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tank-car.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: cgauxknox on February 07, 2018, 03:39:48 PM
A page I follow on Facebook, Severe Weather Outlook for Eastern Tennessee, posted the following, which I thought was interesting enough to at least share.  They reposted it, along with lots of other stuff, from Accuweather, so take it for what it's worth.  Anyway, it's a boring, gray day with no snow or thunder in sight so this is better than nothing:

Quote
Severe weather to kick off early in Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Gulf Coast

While severe weather may dodge areas farther north, it will waste no time heating up in the Southeast, Gulf Coast and Tennessee Valley.

Forecasters are calling for two or three big severe events as early as March.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: WXRocker on February 08, 2018, 10:24:14 AM
And remember:  I'll be helping our chase team by getting them directly under the storm.  (That Super Tuesday chase had me guiding folks from my radar.  I dropped them right up underneath it.  I'm good at this game...but you know, maybe stay a few blocks away from where I pinpoint ya ;) )
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 08, 2018, 11:50:27 AM
Spring sure doesn't look like it is going to get a early start. March looks on the cool to cold side. I think we are going to have a normal spring and summer season. I don't expect much extremes, we will have storms but they hype for some overly volatile spring is more hype than reality I think. That has certainly been the trend the last few years. Not saying we couldn't have a overly active active spring but there is nothing that screams that for sure right now. Here's to a nice normal average ::popcorn:: spring and summer.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on February 08, 2018, 12:19:12 PM
Spring sure doesn't look like it is going to get a early start. March looks on the cool to cold side. I think we are going to have a normal spring and summer season. I don't expect much extremes, we will have storms but they hype for some overly volatile spring is more hype than reality I think. That has certainly been the trend the last few years. Not saying we couldn't have a overly active active spring but there is nothing that screams that for sure right now. Here's to a nice normal average ::popcorn:: spring and summer.
dilly. Dilly .....
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Curt on February 08, 2018, 12:55:29 PM
dilly. Dilly .....

Dilly dilly should be a banned term. #Overused #stupid
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Charles L. on February 08, 2018, 12:58:23 PM
Dilly dilly should be a banned term. #Overused #stupid

I find it hilarious, but of course I drink more than any human should...so there is that too. Haha  :angel:
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: wfrogge on February 08, 2018, 01:29:53 PM
Dilly dilly should be a banned term. #Overused #stupid

Along with hashtagging on a medium where hastags can't be searched for ;)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Crockett on February 08, 2018, 01:42:14 PM
Along with hashtagging on a medium where hastags can't be searched for ;)

#HatersGonnaHate
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: wfrogge on February 08, 2018, 02:24:14 PM
#HatersGonnaHate

Dilly dilly
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: WXRocker on February 08, 2018, 02:36:58 PM
Dilly dilly
#dillydilly
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: wfrogge on February 09, 2018, 01:21:51 PM
Weekend of the 24th looks interesting on the GFS for east Texas and Arkansas. Need to keep an eye on this time frame.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Curt on February 10, 2018, 05:15:04 PM
Weekend of the 24th looks interesting on the GFS for east Texas and Arkansas. Need to keep an eye on this time frame.
So does March 18th.

#HASHTAGHASHTAG
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on February 10, 2018, 05:19:54 PM
So does March 18th.

#HASHTAGHASHTAG
surely
 You meant. February .... 18th
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on February 12, 2018, 09:23:06 AM
Starting to get concerned bout spring time river flooding this year with al rains and snow melt to take place up north later ::drowning::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: wfrogge on February 12, 2018, 03:29:37 PM
Starting to get concerned bout spring time river flooding this year with al rains and snow melt to take place up north later ::drowning::

MEG

The weekend periods will see what will likely signal the beginning
of a longer term pattern change, as a longwave trof digs into the
western U.S., and a 592dm 500mb ridge builds over Florida and the
Carolina coast. This will place the Midsouth under the southwest
flow storm track- likely a wet and mild pattern depicted in the
past several CPC 2 week outlooks. The Ohio and middle Mississippi
River valleys could see quite a bit of rain, which could increase
downstream Mississippi River levels before we head into the
normally wetter months of spring.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on February 19, 2018, 11:07:51 AM
For those that are ready for cleaning out the flower beds putting up purple Martin bird houses. Blooming flowers and severe weather course go along ... just after today  we have 9 days left to meteorological spring  Spc has our first risk out on day 6.... threat holds up i will go in detail as week rolls along ... the euro was more aggressive with it .
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on February 19, 2018, 11:35:51 AM
Im ready for some good storms to track all this rains great and all but its just missing the boom boom and power. Bring it on
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: wfrogge on February 19, 2018, 01:51:18 PM
For those that are ready for cleaning out the flower beds putting up purple Martin bird houses. Blooming flowers and severe weather course go along ... just after today  we have 9 days left to meteorological spring  Spc has our first risk out on day 6.... threat holds up i will go in detail as week rolls along ... the euro was more aggressive with it .

Been on the LR for awhile now. If not severe it will be wet with some major flooding potential.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: andyhb on February 19, 2018, 03:29:06 PM
This Saturday definitely looks potentially interesting for the Mid South given the level of moisture that is being suggested (number one concern for a cold season event). Going to come down the interaction of the ejecting trough and the SE ridge though (can't have it shearing out/lifting north too much).

Given the origins of the jet streak associated with the trough and the ridge itself leading to fairly high heights over the warm sector, mid/upper level temps may be a bit short of ideal for a cold season event, but there definitely is considerable boundary layer moisture to work with (it will be a balance between those thermodynamically).
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on February 19, 2018, 03:34:43 PM
This Saturday definitely looks potentially interesting for the Mid South given the level of moisture that is being suggested (number one concern for a cold season event). Going to come down the interaction of the ejecting trough and the SE ridge though (can't have it shearing out/lifting north too much).
One
Given the origins of the jet streak associated with the trough and the ridge itself leading to fairly high heights over the warm sector, mid/upper level temps may be a bit short of ideal for a cold season event, but there definitely is considerable boundary layer moisture to work with (it will be a balance between those thermodynamically).
one thing was concerned was the se ridge maybe tad to strong taking best dynamics north. Something watch
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: StormNine on February 19, 2018, 03:52:03 PM
Because confidence is increasing that at least river flooding will be an issue for at least West TN, I will go ahead and start the thread for this system and any flooding issues from the surrounding systems. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: WXHD on February 19, 2018, 05:40:37 PM
I got bit by a mosquito today while doing yard work. So, there's that.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: snowdog on February 19, 2018, 05:43:45 PM
I got bit by a mosquito today while doing yard work. So, there's that.

I can hear the frogs at sundown.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on February 19, 2018, 06:03:04 PM
I can hear the frogs at sundown.

If someone says they're starting to hear katydids, then I'll start getting concerned.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on February 19, 2018, 06:08:20 PM
I can hear the frogs at sundown.
hearing frogs now as we speak.... also some cricketts  ;D
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: wfrogge on February 19, 2018, 06:31:52 PM
First mosquito while spraying the yard in Collierville. So much for the old killing them
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: cgauxknox on February 20, 2018, 05:30:29 AM
So it's supposed to be 76 in Knoxville today, which would break a record high, and 74 tomorrow with thunderstorms.  Who else is kayak shopping because it's time to get back on the lake?  ::yum:: (IMPORTANT NOTE: Regardless of air temperature water temps are still low, be smart and don't get hypothermia  ::twocents:: )
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: WXHD on February 20, 2018, 06:22:07 AM
I also heard children outside playing and laughing.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: wfrogge on February 20, 2018, 08:48:59 AM
SPC holding with the 15% over parts of west Tennessee for Saturday. Lets see how it looks once it gets in range of the NAM.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on February 20, 2018, 02:18:30 PM
*Docudrama narrator* "But then, the weather changed... Although February seemed an early spring, the first of March brought unprecedented cold, and snow began to fall"

 ::rofl::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on February 21, 2018, 02:30:23 PM
Feels like May outside. Sticky, warm, and showery. I also see that all of us in east TN have broken record highs today. TRI clocking in at 81 is the first to see 80ís this season, likely due to downsloping in that part of the valley.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on February 21, 2018, 08:48:26 PM
A month away from spring officially but Iím already in the mindset and looking for things that arenít there yet lol
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 21, 2018, 09:11:08 PM
Nice thunder and heavy rain going on in Bellevue atm.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: cgauxknox on February 22, 2018, 01:23:13 PM
At 81 in Knoxville right now with a breeze and some dark clouds with bright sunshine.  With some thunder this would be an almost perfect early summer day.

Post Merge: February 22, 2018, 03:39:53 PM
And we've got a Significant Weather Advisory in East Tennessee for thunderstorms now; looks like I'll get my summer day after all  ::flag::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: wfrogge on February 23, 2018, 08:00:43 AM
New day 6 from the SPC has Shelby CO in west Tennessee in the risk bubble. Spring comes in like a lion this year I guess[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: cgauxknox on March 07, 2018, 05:40:01 PM
I follow an East TN weather site on Facebook and they posted this afternoon that they think we may have some severe weather, primarily from Knoxville south, on Saturday night into Sunday.  Is anybody else seeing signs of this in the models?
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: wfrogge on March 07, 2018, 09:51:57 PM
I follow an East TN weather site on Facebook and they posted this afternoon that they think we may have some severe weather, primarily from Knoxville south, on Saturday night into Sunday.  Is anybody else seeing signs of this in the models?

Yep. For about a week or so the southern 1/2 fo the state looks like they might get severe weather on Saturday but not all models agree. This is why there are OMG SNOW posts for this weekend in the winter thread :)  .... Maybe by tomorrow night things will become more clear.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 11, 2018, 06:36:09 AM
Bruce, you are slipping. The Euro is showing a concerning look first of next week. Something to keep an eye on.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/r08k06.jpg)(http://i68.tinypic.com/b480tw.jpg)

Post Merge: March 11, 2018, 06:49:21 AM
Maybe a couple days of severe potential. Massive warm sector.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/34zhts0.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on March 11, 2018, 07:23:38 AM
Bruce, you are slipping. The Euro is showing a concerning look first of next week. Something to keep an eye on.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/r08k06.jpg)(http://i68.tinypic.com/b480tw.jpg)

Post Merge: March 11, 2018, 06:49:21 AM
Maybe a couple days of severe potential. Massive warm sector.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/34zhts0.jpg)
i been on a special night shift last two nights ... seen the euro. Iím trying to do better holding back.  Yes got my attention. Thank s for posting this
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on March 11, 2018, 08:04:34 AM
Latest CFSv2 is coming around to another wet month in April for the OH and TN Valleys. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrecProb.20180311.201804.gif (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrecProb.20180311.201804.gif)

Also looks warmer than March, especially along the Gulf Coast, so stormy times could be ahead as we had into peak severe weather season. 


Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on March 11, 2018, 09:54:02 AM
Latest CFSv2 is coming around to another wet month in April for the OH and TN Valleys. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrecProb.20180311.201804.gif (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrecProb.20180311.201804.gif)

Also looks warmer than March, especially along the Gulf Coast, so stormy times could be ahead as we had into peak severe weather season.
thats. Good sign. Ike severe wx.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on March 11, 2018, 12:17:16 PM
thats. Good sign. Ike severe wx.
Heck yeah i love storms also i really dislike boring spring time because thats the only thing i love about spring is the storms. And next season is the worst boring summer.. So we definitely need a good active spring or ill go insane! haha
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on March 12, 2018, 06:31:57 AM
this coming weekend into this time next week... has has most certainly caught my attention for sure... with latest model data.... i leave it at that for now... ::coffee::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on March 12, 2018, 09:49:30 AM
At least, it looks warmer for the weekend with springlike showers and storms.

Quote
   Threat of deep convection will begin increasing from the Arklatex
   into the TN Valley during the day5-6 time frame. However, timing of
   individual short waves will prove extremely difficult as
   ECMWF/GFS/UKMET/Canadian exhibit different solutions to the break
   down of the Plains ridge late in the week. While model differences
   will certainly extend into early next week, Plains ridge should
   progress into the MS Valley by day8. If this occurs there is some
   concern organized severe may ultimately materialize across the
   southern Plains/lower MS Valley. Will not introduce 15% severe probs
   given the uncertainty but this scenario will be monitored closely.

   ..Darrow.. 03/12/2018
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on March 12, 2018, 09:54:10 AM
One thing appears certain, the rain train has no intention of moving somewhere else anytime soon.  Looks like a very wet couple of weeks ahead.  In any event, I'll be glad to have some milder weather this coming weekend.  If it ain't gonna snow, bring on some warmer weather.  I've got a ton of work to do around the house. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on March 12, 2018, 04:50:42 PM
One thing appears certain, the rain train has no intention of moving somewhere else anytime soon.  Looks like a very wet couple of weeks ahead.  In any event, I'll be glad to have some milder weather this coming weekend.  If it ain't gonna snow, bring on some warmer weather.  I've got a ton of work to do around the house.
I was just about to post that the GFS is extraordinarily wet in the long range. March looks like a repeat of February in that regard.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on March 12, 2018, 05:02:41 PM
I was just about to post that the GFS is extraordinarily wet in the long range. March looks like a repeat of February in that regard.
Pics of projected rainfall totals please i love rain
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on March 12, 2018, 08:30:07 PM
Pics of projected rainfall totals please i love rain
Itís already flopped back to normal rainfall amounts with the next run. It was showing 8-10Ē across the I-24 corridor, but now itís back to 2-3Ē through 240 hrs.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on March 13, 2018, 04:21:30 AM
SPC has a day 4 threat ... covering mostly Arkansas ....
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on March 15, 2018, 06:27:50 AM
SPC now includes portion sw tn slight risk tomorrow .. nothing huge ... but itís a start ....
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 15, 2018, 07:19:25 AM
Overnight Friday night looks interesting to me for East Ark and West Tn according to the Euro.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on March 15, 2018, 08:22:21 AM
Euro and GFS agree on one thing--wet, wet, wet for next 30-45 days.  Winter & Spring are at war, and the battlefront seems to be right over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys for the foreseeable future.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a few bouts of severe weather as the contrast in temperatures north to south becomes more pronounced. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on March 15, 2018, 09:12:08 AM
Euro and GFS agree on one thing--wet, wet, wet for next 30-45 days.  Winter & Spring are at war, and the battlefront seems to be right over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys for the foreseeable future.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a few bouts of severe weather as the contrast in temperatures north to south becomes more pronounced.
yeh.  I take that look at 240 on last nites 0.
Z euro any day .... that holds up.. something big coming out that pattern... plenty moisture return from gulf and even Caribbean origin ....
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on March 15, 2018, 09:46:24 AM
No surprise--all the dryness and drought over the mid-south and Tennessee is gone.  However, the southern plains drought is only getting worse, and if long range outlooks are correct, they may be in for a long, hot & dry summer, similar to 2012. 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/)

Tennessee was on the eastern edge of the hot dome of high pressure that year, but we didn't escape the heat--it spread eastward as the summer progressed.  West TN became dry, while eastern TN was on very edge of the "ring of fire," and had several bouts of intense, damaging storms in July that kept the dryness at bay.  The extreme heat that year energized the intense, damaging derecho that hit Ohio and West Virginia in June.  It actually made it all the way to the east coast!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2012_North_American_derecho (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2012_North_American_derecho)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: NashRugger on March 15, 2018, 11:32:15 AM
Don't forget a lot of locations in Middle Tennessee and the Ohio Valley have their all-time record highs set in late June/early July of 2012, such as BNA at 109 and MQY at 113, unofficially.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: snowdog on March 15, 2018, 01:31:24 PM
No surprise--all the dryness and drought over the mid-south and Tennessee is gone.  However, the southern plains drought is only getting worse, and if long range outlooks are correct, they may be in for a long, hot & dry summer, similar to 2012. 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/)

Tennessee was on the eastern edge of the hot dome of high pressure that year, but we didn't escape the heat--it spread eastward as the summer progressed.  West TN became dry, while eastern TN was on very edge of the "ring of fire," and had several bouts of intense, damaging storms in July that kept the dryness at bay.  The extreme heat that year energized the intense, damaging derecho that hit Ohio and West Virginia in June.  It actually made it all the way to the east coast!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2012_North_American_derecho (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2012_North_American_derecho)

Drought map looks a lot like March 2012. That was just a brutal start to summer that year. I'd rather not do that one over again.  ::hot::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on March 16, 2018, 08:24:20 AM
Worth a mention for Monday...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2018/day4-8_20180316.html

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2018/day4prob_20180316_1200.gif)

Quote
   On Monday Day 4, a cold front is forecast to stretch roughly from
   middle TN southward across MS by 00Z Tuesday, continuing eastward
   across AL and into GA by Tuesday morning. A warm front will also
   lift north across the region, stretching from northern AL into
   central GA at 00Z. Dewpoints in the 60s F and cool midlevel
   temperatures will result in around 1500 J/kg MUCAPE, with strong
   deep-layer shear profiles supporting organized convection. Low-level
   shear will be maximized near the warm front, and forecast wind
   profiles do support supercells. Conditional on storm mode, a tornado
   threat may exist. The northern threat into TN will depend on
   instability, but otherwise the synoptic setup appears most favorable
   there.
To the south, instability will be much greater and one or
   more clusters of storms are expected to spread across AL and GA with
   damaging winds likely given strong mean wind profiles.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: andyhb on March 16, 2018, 12:51:04 PM
The threat on Monday is definitely beginning to catch my attention. There are certainly some caveats especially further north into TN, but the 500 mb trough itself says there's a good chance for trouble. Has some 4/10/2009 vibes to it.

Will have more on this later.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on March 16, 2018, 12:53:42 PM
The threat on Monday is definitely beginning to catch my attention. There are certainly some caveats especially further north into TN, but the 500 mb trough itself says there's a good chance for trouble. Has some 4/10/2009 vibes to it.

Will have more on this later.
first thought to me looks messy to me. Junk convection .... waiting euro
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on March 16, 2018, 01:08:16 PM
Don't forget a lot of locations in Middle Tennessee and the Ohio Valley have their all-time record highs set in late June/early July of 2012, such as BNA at 109 and MQY at 113, unofficially.
Chattanooga also set theirs at 107 the same day that Nashville hit 109. My car thermometer was reading 111 while I was going 50 mph. If I remember correctly that was driven by extreme subsidence due to a tropical system passing to our SE.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on March 17, 2018, 04:18:00 AM
Storming out. So so nice. Pea dize hail low wind but very heavy rain.... Lots of negative lightining as well.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on March 17, 2018, 05:59:12 AM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2018/day3otlk_20180317_0730.html


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: justinmundie on March 17, 2018, 07:10:05 AM
Day three hatched slight risk - future upgrade appears likely once predictability is better.

Seems like weíve got a live one... where is Bruce?
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on March 17, 2018, 10:04:04 AM
Just a few light showers this morning, and now skies have cleared and a beautiful spring-like day appears to be in store before possibly strong storms develop late in the day.  Blue sky never looked so good. 

Post Merge: March 17, 2018, 03:55:49 PM
Severe thunderstorm watch for a chunk of eastern TN...

www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0010.html (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0010.html)

Quote
RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 10
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   430 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
     Central and Eastern Kentucky
     Far Western North Carolina
     Northern and Eastern Tennessee
     Far Western Virginia
     Far Southern West Virginia

   * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 430 PM until Midnight
     EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
       to 2 inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Clusters of storms including supercells will continue to
   increase through late afternoon especially across central/eastern
   Kentucky, with somewhat more isolated development expected southward
   into Tennessee. Bouts of severe hail will be common with the most
   intense storms, while damaging winds can also be expected,
   especially if a semi-organized linear system evolves by early
   evening toward the spine of the Appalachian Mountains.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
   statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west of London
   KY to 35 miles east northeast of Bristol TN. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Eric on March 17, 2018, 04:44:48 PM
The threat on Monday is definitely beginning to catch my attention. There are certainly some caveats especially further north into TN, but the 500 mb trough itself says there's a good chance for trouble. Has some 4/10/2009 vibes to it.

Will have more on this later.

Good Friday outbreak?  No thanks.  Murfreesboro doesnt need another EF4.  Neither does anybody else.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on March 17, 2018, 05:26:13 PM
So many outflows or whatever all around Mid tn. Wow. I hope i can get another storm maybe but i think im to far west. Mondays event looks to mainly stay below Tn Border. And below I-40. But we will see. This mornings storms got me so pumped for springtime storms though.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 17, 2018, 05:29:11 PM
MEG

Quote
By Monday morning, much of the Mid-South is expected to be in the
warm sector of a 997 mb surface low, characterized by low 60s
dewpoints and backed winds. The surface low will quickly traverse
from the Arkansas and Oklahoma border to the Missouri Bootheel by
early afternoon and swing a cold front through the entire Mid-
South by early afternoon. All models generate quite a bit of
instability over northeast Mississippi and portions of West
Tennessee with SBCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg, LIs around -4C,
and 60 knots of deep layer shear. 500mb height falls look to be
around 40 meters over the area, which should support robust
updrafts containing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a
tornado or two. The best risk of severe weather will likely be to
the east of our forecast area, but northeast Mississippi and
portions of West Tennessee could see at least a few severe storms.
If any storms can get going ahead of the main front, storm mode
would likely by supercellular with a large hail and tornado risk.
The most likely storm mode with be multi-cellular with a damaging
wind threat. The details are still a little unclear, as the speed
of the system has accelerated with each new model run, and the
shortwave acquires more of a neutral tilt over our area. Timing
issues may limit the amount of daytime heating to realize the
instability needed in our area to support severe thunderstorm
development. Nonetheless, at least a few strong to severe storms
are possible over the eastern half of the forecast area. Will
continue to mention large hail, damaging winds, and isolated
tornadoes with a focus placed on the eastern half of the area.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: cgauxknox on March 17, 2018, 05:47:11 PM
Almost all of East TN is now under a Thunderstorm Watch and I just heard the first big rumble of thunder in Knoxville.   ::popcorn::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: meigs497 on March 17, 2018, 06:30:52 PM
We got 1/2 for about 2 mins tryed to post video not sure whyi cant
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on March 17, 2018, 07:00:11 PM
TOR in a very unusual location on the border of Polk and Monroe counties in the middle of the mountains. I noticed a thunderhead when I was relaxing the in the front yard this evening. Itís actually really nice out here. I didnít know there were storms nearby.
 BTW we had a thunder shower this morning. I think it was the first time Iíve heard thunder in about 5 months.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on March 17, 2018, 09:50:45 PM
Wall cloud from my friend that lives in Etowah.[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on March 18, 2018, 05:56:33 AM
and enhanced risk out for parts of middle tn, especially southern portion... with tornadoes possibly couple strong ones....
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: cgauxknox on March 18, 2018, 07:40:34 AM
We never did get storms across my part of West Knoxville but I did get to see one of the cooler weather sights I've personally experienced.  I stepped into the backyard when we let our dog make her last trip to the yard before bed and when I looked up I could see stars directly above our house, but when I looked to the south there was a big cloud bank with lots of impressive lightning flashing through it.  The contrast between a clear, starry sky and lightning-filled thunderclouds was just a really cool way to end the day.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on March 18, 2018, 11:01:17 AM
We never did get storms across my part of West Knoxville but I did get to see one of the cooler weather sights I've personally experienced.  I stepped into the backyard when we let our dog make her last trip to the yard before bed and when I looked up I could see stars directly above our house, but when I looked to the south there was a big cloud bank with lots of impressive lightning flashing through it.  The contrast between a clear, starry sky and lightning-filled thunderclouds was just a really cool way to end the day.

Saw a similar sight over my way.  The storms bypassed me to the south, but there was a cool lightning show for about an hour.  It was a pleasant evening for watching storms from the front porch.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on March 19, 2018, 09:43:06 AM
Looks like a small tornado crossed hwy 64 in Polk county about half a mile from my project site. There were a bunch of pine trees down and a shed destroyed. Probably happened Saturday night.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Eric on March 19, 2018, 10:04:02 AM
Looks like a small tornado crossed hwy 64 in Polk county about half a mile from my project site. There were a bunch of pine trees down and a shed destroyed. Probably happened Saturday night.

May want to report that to MRX, with pics and a geotagged fix, if possible.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: southeastTNwx on March 19, 2018, 10:17:42 AM
Looks like a small tornado crossed hwy 64 in Polk county about half a mile from my project site. There were a bunch of pine trees down and a shed destroyed. Probably happened Saturday night.

MRX did confirm an EF-0 in the Coker Creek area, that was likely from that same tornado warned cell on Saturday evening.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=MRX
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 21, 2018, 08:46:43 PM
Today is the 66th anniversary of the deadliest day in Dyer County history. My Granddad's brother who lived next door to him was killed and his dairy farm was completely blown away.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/ohtsax.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: harlequin on March 21, 2018, 09:29:25 PM
Today is the 66th anniversary of the deadliest day in Dyer County history. My Granddad's brother who lived next door to him was killed and his dairy farm was completely blown away.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/ohtsax.jpg)

I'm sorry to hear about your great-uncle. That was an incredible outbreak. 209 killed and 11 (!) F4s in the Mid South, which is the 4th highest in a single outbreak. 7 of the F4s affected the MEG CWA. The other 4 were in LZK's. I think it's likely that an EF5 probably occurred somewhere in there.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on March 22, 2018, 05:18:23 PM
Surprised no ones mentioning all the rain coming around Easter lol. I mean the grounds not as wet as a few weeks ago but its not dry so there might be flooding problems around here again in a week or so.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on March 23, 2018, 09:02:39 AM
06Z GFS showing some crazy rain amounts over the TN valley in the next 10 days.  The system mid-week bears watching per MRX:

Quote
A bigger rain maker will begin to move in during
the middle of the week as a strong cold front moves in from the
west. Lots of Gulf moisture is being brought in with winds shifting
out of the southwest ahead of this system, with forecast PWAT values
well over the 90th percentile for this time of year. With the very
high PWAT values and the strong winds out of the south/southwest
running mostly parallel to the incoming front we could see
widespread heavy rain over the forecast area. This system will be
one to keep an eye on as several inches of rainfall may be possible
as this system rolls through.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on March 23, 2018, 10:14:47 AM
06Z GFS showing some crazy rain amounts over the TN valley in the next 10 days.  The system mid-week bears watching per MRX:

Man you arenít kidding. 10.25Ē at KCHA through day 7. I do not need that at work.

Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on March 23, 2018, 10:22:06 AM
Tidbit from OHX...

Quote
Enjoy Tuesday, because things get much worse for mid to late week.
Moisture rich southwest flow aloft will develop with a series of
disturbances bringing the potential for heavy rainfall. Our latest
QPF based mainly on WPC data indicates 2 to 4 inches of rain from
Tuesday night through Thursday. Unfortunately, some models are
showing much more, so those rainfall totals may increase
depending on model updates. It is much too soon for any hydrologic
outlook products, but we will give a "heads up" mention of heavy
rain potential in our Hazardous Weather Outlook.

"Much more" than 2-4 inches of rainfall scares me a bit.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 23, 2018, 10:40:03 AM
Tidbit from OHX...

"Much more" than 2-4 inches of rainfall scares me a bit.
Last nights GFS had a large part of Tennessee with 8 to 10. Have not looked this morning.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on March 23, 2018, 11:36:00 AM
Last nights GFS had a large part of Tennessee with 8 to 10. Have not looked this morning.

2010 still haunts a lot of us. Hopefully, those model runs are out to lunch, and QPFs trend in a better direction.

QPFs tend to be overdone in the extended.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on March 23, 2018, 11:38:01 AM
I always watch. Hpc qpc and the spcs rainfall outlook it usually shows heavy rain potiential pretty accurate for us. I just happen to check yesterday and seen the blob heading our way so i was like ehh looks like we might get that and wala lol
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on March 23, 2018, 12:03:15 PM
ugh... things sure pointing towards a major flood threat up coming next week with ensembles also... ::drowning:: something to watch
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 23, 2018, 12:52:09 PM
(http://i65.tinypic.com/2q3us9j.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: wfrogge on March 23, 2018, 01:52:01 PM
Moist
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on March 23, 2018, 02:35:47 PM
6Z GFS rainfall:
(https://i.imgur.com/SoTpuHD_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium)

Letís hope thatís wrong.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: harlequin on March 24, 2018, 10:36:49 PM
Pea size hail for about 90 seconds here with a quick, but strong downpour. I'd say I got about an inch in 20-25 minutes.

The band of snow that's caused Winter Storm Warnings from MN/North Dakota to North Carolina is kind of an unusual set-up. Indianapolis got 10.2" (about 6" more than forecast). By far their biggest event of the season. Louisville also had an overachieving 8" earlier in the week.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 26, 2018, 06:59:47 AM
There is a really strong supercell with a SVR warning that has moved across northern Arkansas and now into the boot heel this morning. The temps are in low to mid 40s. Don't see that everyday.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on March 27, 2018, 09:42:08 AM
This graphic shows the area of greatest concern for flooding as a bullseye from Pulaski to around Shelbyville with potentially 4-6" of rainfall.

EDIT: Since I originally posted this graphic, it's updated to push the heavier amounts further west.

(http://www.weather.gov/images/ohx/graphicast/image27.png?8145ebafcbc5da03cc1c719523c8b4b7)

Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on March 27, 2018, 01:47:05 PM
Looks like areas east of the plateau will miss the worst of this deluge.  The axis of heavy started here, but has gradually shifted westward. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on March 27, 2018, 04:16:41 PM
Looks like areas east of the plateau will miss the worst of this deluge.  The axis of heavy started here, but has gradually shifted westward.
Yep. The euro is actually dry for a lot of east TN.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on March 27, 2018, 05:25:49 PM
This graphic shows the area of greatest concern for flooding as a bullseye from Pulaski to around Shelbyville with potentially 4-6" of rainfall.

EDIT: Since I originally posted this graphic, it's updated to push the heavier amounts further west.

(http://www.weather.gov/images/ohx/graphicast/image27.png?8145ebafcbc5da03cc1c719523c8b4b7)
Watch it end up being in the middle of them 2 probably. I noticed the Hpc outlook changed their rainfall from south mid tn to further west as well so knew something had to change in the forecast. Im guessing the fronts expected to stall sooner over that area vs over us so if that changes then thats who will get the most.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: WXHD on March 27, 2018, 05:53:59 PM
I'll take the rain while I can get it. It's probably beyond useful amounts for my yard but should be good for the water table.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on March 28, 2018, 12:03:51 AM
Hrrr shows how this comes in waves and dies out pretty fast each wave as it nears nashville east. The southern eastern parts of mid tn get screwed the most and they was in the hot spot a day ago. If hrrr verifies how it is now honestly id trim total down around nashville east and uptick totals between nash and clarksville.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on March 28, 2018, 08:50:44 AM
Hrrr shows how this comes in waves and dies out pretty fast each wave as it nears nashville east. The southern eastern parts of mid tn get screwed the most and they was in the hot spot a day ago. If hrrr verifies how it is now honestly id trim total down around nashville east and uptick totals between nash and clarksville.

This rain event is turning into a huge bust again for many areas. Iím not really sure why I even bother looking at forecasts anymore.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JHart on March 28, 2018, 09:07:30 AM
This rain event is turning into a huge bust again for many areas. I’m not really sure why I even bother looking at forecasts anymore.

Everyone should get a nice spring rain over the next two days.  The state is not abnormally dry, so why should we be rooting for worse?
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on March 28, 2018, 09:08:28 AM
This rain event is turning into a huge bust again for many areas. Iím not really sure why I even bother looking at forecasts anymore.
yeah. Mother Nature getting soft with her old age ...Iím ready for some xtreme weather ...  she. Can t  even make it thunder anymore these days....
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Crockett on March 28, 2018, 09:11:35 AM
Everyone should get a nice spring rain over the next two days.  The state is not abnormally dry, so why should we be rooting for worse?

Cosign.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on March 28, 2018, 09:31:11 AM
Everyone should get a nice spring rain over the next two days.  The state is not abnormally dry, so why should we be rooting for worse?

Iím absolutely not rooting for worse. I work in stormwater and erosion control...believe me when I say I want the exact opposite.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on March 28, 2018, 11:35:18 AM
Im always rooting for rain lol. Unless it should be snow. I love floods just like i like severe weather and snow. Some might not and thats ok. If i lost my house to flood or tornado or snow then my opinion would probably change but like i enjoy wild weather.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on March 28, 2018, 12:58:33 PM
Regional radars really look anemic at this point. The greatest chance looks to be tonight anyway- but, I'm a bit skeptical if forecast amounts will be achieved at this point.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: NashRugger on March 28, 2018, 03:52:01 PM
There could be a brief window from about 8pm-midnight for an isolated tornado and damaging wind in the I-65 corridor based upon several model runs and their suggestive presentation.

Also, axis of highest rain forecasted is now from Waynesboro to Lafayette and about 30 miles either side of that line, in line with current model depictions.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: WXRocker on March 28, 2018, 09:14:01 PM
MS is having a bit of an interesting night.   ::coffee::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 28, 2018, 09:20:10 PM
Radar has exploded tonight. Currently a couple Tornado warnings in central Ms. Area of very heavy rain training along and south of 40.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: WXHD on March 28, 2018, 10:09:02 PM
It's finally raining in BNA.

Post Merge: March 28, 2018, 10:15:55 PM
Looks like there's some flash photography too.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on March 30, 2018, 04:09:33 AM
know its super long range... but finally may be seeing or first major severe threat  looming... day 10 euro perfect example... nothing else to chatter about... so why not... >:D
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Mister2011 on March 30, 2018, 04:31:30 PM
The drive from Maryville to Oak Ridge via Pellissippi Parkway was surreal at 6 am morning. Some of the heaviest rain I've seen all year with beautiful thunder heads on the western horizon silhouetted by stars and a blindingly bright moon.

Can I bottle that up??
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on March 31, 2018, 06:09:54 AM
In KY visiting my folks. Recent cold snaps have done a number on the Bradfords here. Black blooms hanging on most of the trees.

Hope everyone has a happy and blessed Easter weekend.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: WXHD on March 31, 2018, 04:08:46 PM
Delicious weather today. More please!
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 01, 2018, 08:40:56 AM
Meanwhile, the northern plains woke up to single digits this morning for an icy April Fool's joke.  We just thought spring was coming early in February. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on April 01, 2018, 09:23:43 AM
Meanwhile, the northern plains woke up to single digits this morning for an icy April Fool's joke.  We just thought spring was coming early in February.

And that is why no one lives there.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: cbrentv318 on April 01, 2018, 11:43:13 AM
Masters week upcoming. Can anyone give us a weather idea for this area for next week?


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Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Jilly on April 01, 2018, 11:56:58 AM
SPC 3-day outlook has Memphis in Slight category thus far.


Post Merge: April 01, 2018, 11:59:47 AM
Happy Easter (and Passover)
our Parish easter egg hunt was not rained out ::applause::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: StormNine on April 01, 2018, 12:06:43 PM
https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/peopleandplaces/sand-from-the-stormy-sahara-turns-snow-in-russia-orange/vi-BBKIalf

Some areas in Russia have orange snow this Easter. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 01, 2018, 12:59:28 PM
Reed Timmer's target area in pink for Tuesday as modeled now.

(http://i63.tinypic.com/2mqj9n6.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 01, 2018, 04:32:48 PM
And that is why no one lives there.

That, and they have no trees.   

https://www.google.com/maps/@43.8868116,-100.785084,3a,75y,270.12h,90.23t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1swIMhHXQTrPSUBh1yz6RArg!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo0.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3DwIMhHXQTrPSUBh1yz6RArg%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D359.07224%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656 (https://www.google.com/maps/@43.8868116,-100.785084,3a,75y,270.12h,90.23t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1swIMhHXQTrPSUBh1yz6RArg!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo0.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3DwIMhHXQTrPSUBh1yz6RArg%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D359.07224%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on April 01, 2018, 06:32:40 PM
That, and they have no trees.   

https://www.google.com/maps/@43.8868116,-100.785084,3a,75y,270.12h,90.23t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1swIMhHXQTrPSUBh1yz6RArg!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo0.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3DwIMhHXQTrPSUBh1yz6RArg%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D359.07224%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656 (https://www.google.com/maps/@43.8868116,-100.785084,3a,75y,270.12h,90.23t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1swIMhHXQTrPSUBh1yz6RArg!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo0.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3DwIMhHXQTrPSUBh1yz6RArg%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D359.07224%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656)
Thats why i like google maps you can like look at sights all around the world but its so strange (for me anyways since ive never traveled) to actually see some of these locations. its almost like a new world like its so flat and even the dirt looks different in lots of places vs around this area. Like i look at them pictures like oh i bet floods would be bad or storms would be but thing is they dont really see storms like we do because of the locations ect so it would actually be boring there. I mean im sure they have weather events we dont get here ect but idk being in a flat area like that with very little population and trees and bush's would creep me out. Reminds me of like how a horror movie would be or something.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: StormNine on April 01, 2018, 09:35:43 PM
That, and they have no trees.   

https://www.google.com/maps/@43.8868116,-100.785084,3a,75y,270.12h,90.23t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1swIMhHXQTrPSUBh1yz6RArg!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo0.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3DwIMhHXQTrPSUBh1yz6RArg%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D359.07224%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656 (https://www.google.com/maps/@43.8868116,-100.785084,3a,75y,270.12h,90.23t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1swIMhHXQTrPSUBh1yz6RArg!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo0.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3DwIMhHXQTrPSUBh1yz6RArg%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D359.07224%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656)

That is what makes it perfect storm chaser terrain.  There is nothing to block the view of the storm.  It is also what makes it Blizzard Alley because there is nothing to block the wind from drifting the snow everywhere. 
Title: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on April 01, 2018, 10:05:59 PM
Thats why i like google maps you can like look at sights all around the world but its so strange (for me anyways since ive never traveled) to actually see some of these locations. its almost like a new world like its so flat and even the dirt looks different in lots of places vs around this area. Like i look at them pictures like oh i bet floods would be bad or storms would be but thing is they dont really see storms like we do because of the locations ect so it would actually be boring there. I mean im sure they have weather events we dont get here ect but idk being in a flat area like that with very little population and trees and bush's would creep me out. Reminds me of like how a horror movie would be or something.

Thank you for that elegant yet subtly nuanced assessment and the intricate sense in which you intended it.


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Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 02, 2018, 03:56:09 AM
spc now has parts of west tn under a enhanced risk tomorrow... honestly did not see that coming... tornado risk increasing somewhat also.. ::coffee::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 02, 2018, 07:40:25 AM
That is what makes it perfect storm chaser terrain.  There is nothing to block the view of the storm.  It is also what makes it Blizzard Alley because there is nothing to block the wind from drifting the snow everywhere.

In it's own way it is uniquely beautiful, but give me Tennessee and trees. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: StormNine on April 02, 2018, 08:15:20 AM
spc now has parts of west tn under a enhanced risk tomorrow... honestly did not see that coming... tornado risk increasing somewhat also.. ::coffee::

The low-level shear is pretty potent north of I-40 so although this looks to be a squall line perhaps QLCS type of storm mode it is a situation where we could see some tornado spinups along the line.  It is probably enough to warrant its own thread if anyone wants to go ahead and do that. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 02, 2018, 08:23:44 AM
Every model has snow next weekend.  Some runs have been big for Tennessee/ NC. This set up in April ?  Really ?

(http://i65.tinypic.com/2q00bom.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 02, 2018, 11:31:17 AM
The CMC did have some heavy snow into TN next weekend, but the latest run keeps the lion's share in KY.  At this point, they can keep it.  It's April. These cold and rainy/snowy weekends are getting old.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html (http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Curt on April 02, 2018, 01:49:14 PM
All 3 globals have frozen precip in or near overnight Friday into Sat am through most of the area. Arctic air mass bleeding down with classic LP riding the south- much more winter-like than spring.

If you cant like TN weather between a mild severe episode tomorrow and potential winter wx this weekend with another freeze...
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 02, 2018, 02:27:03 PM
All 3 globals have frozen precip in or near overnight Friday into Sat am through most of the area. Arctic air mass bleeding down with classic LP riding the south- much more winter-like than spring.

If you cant like TN weather between a mild severe episode tomorrow and potential winter wx this weekend with another freeze...

And plenty of rain on the GFS over the next 10 days.  Boy, when the warmth finally does arrive, prepare for a pollen expolsion!
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 02, 2018, 02:40:07 PM
And plenty of rain on the GFS over the next 10 days.  Boy, when the warmth finally does arrive, prepare for a pollen expolsion!
bring it.   I got plenty of Claritin ....

Post Merge: April 02, 2018, 03:06:58 PM
12z euro day ten ... ::yum:: nice pattern setting up
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 02, 2018, 07:14:14 PM
I don't think I've ever seen a setup like this in April. Usually a big upper level low. The North half of NC gets 6 to 10 inches on the Euro. Basically all of Tennessee gets frozen precipitation.

Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: harlequin on April 02, 2018, 08:36:19 PM
And plenty of rain on the GFS over the next 10 days.  Boy, when the warmth finally does arrive, prepare for a pollen expolsion!

We've had pollen on everything for a bit here.

If I were here this weekend, I'd be annoyed at the chilly temperatures. I'm going to be in Palm Springs and there's a 20% chance of rain. With my luck, it will rain despite their average April precip being 0.06".
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 02, 2018, 09:23:36 PM
We've had pollen on everything for a bit here.

If I were here this weekend, I'd be annoyed at the chilly temperatures. I'm going to be in Palm Springs and there's a 20% chance of rain. With my luck, it will rain despite their average April precip being 0.06".
i almost spent whole year there when i was in the marines... 29 palms... they only average close to 5 inches whole year.... dry dry dry ::hot::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 02, 2018, 11:56:25 PM
0z GFS and CMC

(http://i63.tinypic.com/23ueczp.jpg)(http://i63.tinypic.com/5ecu2c.jpg)

Post Merge: April 03, 2018, 12:14:13 AM
I will never forget this sight 12 years ago. I watched it for about 6 to 8 minutes not really comprehending what it was doing.

(http://i65.tinypic.com/6zv5li.jpg)

(http://i68.tinypic.com/ehetk2.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 03, 2018, 09:09:33 AM
We've had pollen on everything for a bit here.

If I were here this weekend, I'd be annoyed at the chilly temperatures. I'm going to be in Palm Springs and there's a 20% chance of rain. With my luck, it will rain despite their average April precip being 0.06".

We are probably running a week or two behind with the pollen.  I did notice some green residue on my car before heading to KY over the weekend, so I think it's just getting started.  The oak trees haven't started budding yet, and they produce the greenish-yellow powder by the buckets.  In a heavy year, they can cover the pond in a green sludge that looks pretty disgusting. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: StormNine on April 03, 2018, 10:17:29 AM

(http://i63.tinypic.com/23ueczp.jpg)(http://i63.tinypic.com/5ecu2c.jpg)

Post Merge: April 03, 2018, 12:14:13 AM
I will never forget this sight 12 years ago. I watched it for about 6 to 8 minutes not really comprehending what it was doing.


4/2/2006 is probably one of the most slept on outbreaks in our area.  Those tornadic supercells in NE Arkansas, MO Boothill, and West TN were fierce monsters. The Christian/Todd County tornado in KY was pretty wicked as well and was only about 5 miles to my north.   Plus, the serial derecho across MO/IL/IN/KY/OH was probably one of the most intense derecho events to ever hit that area.   
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Curt on April 03, 2018, 02:37:00 PM
Craziest April I can remember in awhile. All 3 globals still showing frozen precip Saturday morning across the state. Euro might be the most bullish in getting the precip and the 32 degree line south.

Lets just get through tonight first.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 03, 2018, 06:01:35 PM
Cold snaps are normal in April, but I've never seen this much cold last this long this late into spring.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 03, 2018, 09:30:30 PM
buckle up boys n girls... cause after first part of next week... active severe pattern taken shape on ensembles... ::coffee::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on April 03, 2018, 10:31:15 PM
0z GFS and CMC

(http://i63.tinypic.com/23ueczp.jpg)(http://i63.tinypic.com/5ecu2c.jpg)

Post Merge: April 03, 2018, 12:14:13 AM
I will never forget this sight 12 years ago. I watched it for about 6 to 8 minutes not really comprehending what it was doing.

(http://i65.tinypic.com/6zv5li.jpg)

(http://i68.tinypic.com/ehetk2.jpg)

I have a softball tournament Iím playing in on Saturday. Looks like itíll be COLD. Iím not too pleased about that.


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Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 04, 2018, 12:27:50 AM
I have a softball tournament Iím playing in on Saturday. Looks like itíll be COLD. Iím not too pleased about that.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I have my doubts on your softball.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/29zzyhs.jpg)(http://i65.tinypic.com/2qb9btc.jpg)

Post Merge: April 04, 2018, 10:17:16 AM
12k NAM.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/2enx3xu.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: WXRocker on April 04, 2018, 10:48:59 AM
I have my doubts on your softball.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/29zzyhs.jpg)(http://i65.tinypic.com/2qb9btc.jpg)

Post Merge: April 04, 2018, 10:17:16 AM
12k NAM.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/2enx3xu.jpg)
We're just gonna pretend that my filthy mind didn't just take your softball and run amok.   ::whistling::

Mother Nature's off her meds.  Again.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on April 04, 2018, 02:29:17 PM
I call BS
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 04, 2018, 03:03:23 PM
MOTHER OF GOD ... 12z euro next week... ::coffee::

Post Merge: April 04, 2018, 03:28:50 PM
boy  wish my paste would work on my computer... i would paste tat beauty of a system on the euro... been consistent showing it also
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Vols1 on April 04, 2018, 05:08:58 PM
Severe weather Bruce? What day?
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 04, 2018, 05:28:06 PM
I don't know about severe weather, but looking at the frost and freeze potential coming up, I'd have to say this is probably the worst spring since 2007.  I visited KY for several days, and most of the fruit trees have been damaged to some extent, and considering the cold still to come, many apple orchards may be hit hard.  This year's crop may suffer considerable losses or be wiped out, at least in KY.

The only saving grace for this spring compared to 2007 is: we've had more rain, so no drought like we had in the summer of 2007, and March was MUCH colder this year compared to 2007, so other hardwood trees aren't as leafed out as back then.  Other than that, this spring sucks.  :-\

Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 04, 2018, 05:36:00 PM
I don't know about severe weather, but looking at the frost and freeze potential coming up, I'd have to say this is probably the worst spring since 2007.  I visited KY for several days, and most of the fruit trees have been damaged to some extent, and considering the cold still to come, many apple orchards may be hit hard.  This year's crop may suffer considerable losses or be wiped out, at least in KY.

The only saving grace for this spring compared to 2007 is: we've had more rain, so no drought like we had in the summer of 2007, and March was MUCH colder this year compared to 2007, so other hardwood trees aren't as leafed out as back then.  Other than that, this spring sucks.  :-\
severe weather late next week
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 04, 2018, 05:53:48 PM
severe weather late next week

If it means NORMAL temperatures, I'll deal with it.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 04, 2018, 07:59:22 PM
I will say the Euro is concerning for a huge area over a couple days. A front eventually comes through here with storms but severe parameters for areas to the north and west are off the charts as modeled now.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Crockett on April 04, 2018, 09:15:55 PM
I don't know about severe weather, but looking at the frost and freeze potential coming up, I'd have to say this is probably the worst spring since 2007.  I visited KY for several days, and most of the fruit trees have been damaged to some extent, and considering the cold still to come, many apple orchards may be hit hard.  This year's crop may suffer considerable losses or be wiped out, at least in KY.

The only saving grace for this spring compared to 2007 is: we've had more rain, so no drought like we had in the summer of 2007, and March was MUCH colder this year compared to 2007, so other hardwood trees aren't as leafed out as back then.  Other than that, this spring sucks.  :-\

Sadly, this has seemed inevitable for a few weeks now. And it seems to be a concern more often than not during our spring seasons nowadays. Maybe it's just me, but it seems to happen more frequently than it did years ago. I think it was you who said a couple of days ago that it seems like we don't have true spring anymore. It's hard to disagree...
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 04, 2018, 09:18:05 PM
I will say the Euro is concerning for a huge area over a couple days. A front eventually comes through here with storms but severe parameters for areas to the north and west are off the charts as modeled now.
take the 12z euro verbatim... major outbreak from eastern oklahoma to the lower ohio valley ::coffee::

Post Merge: April 04, 2018, 09:21:05 PM
also looking like a multi day event also...
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Vols1 on April 04, 2018, 10:36:24 PM
What days is it showing for mid Tennessee?
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Curt on April 05, 2018, 06:18:41 AM
What days is it showing for mid Tennessee?
Looking at the euro control(which is the unperturbed eps, there is a brief warm up to well above normal around day 9 as another cold air mass comes into the central US. Looks like a training got heavy rain as it creeps east and a window for severe. After it shows well below normal temps again. In fact the vast majority is below normal and if itís correct wouldnít be surprised for another potential freeze at some point mid April.

Keep in mind, below normal is getting warmer as we move through each week. Overall though it the EPS is right this is not a score her pattern. More like cool to cold for this time of year followed by a brief above normal period and possible heavy rainfall or severe.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on April 05, 2018, 09:53:03 AM
Overall though it the EPS is right this is not a score her pattern.

A score her pattern?  ::pondering::

Title: Spring 2018
Post by: Curt on April 05, 2018, 10:13:26 AM
Lol oops stupid spellcheck. Have no idea what that was actually supposed to be now so will just leave it
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JHart on April 05, 2018, 11:22:04 AM
Lol oops stupid spellcheck. Have no idea what that was actually supposed to be now so will just leave it

I am guessing "scorcher pattern" based on context.  My Title IX training prevents any further comments. ::whistling::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 05, 2018, 11:25:06 AM
If this was a couple months ago we would be jumping for joy. Absolutely perfect track for a Tennessee winter storm

(http://i65.tinypic.com/105thjl.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Drifter49 on April 05, 2018, 11:27:40 AM
If this was a couple months ago we would be jumping for joy. Absolutely perfect track for a Tennessee winter storm

(http://i65.tinypic.com/105thjl.jpg)

Not too far north there are watches out.


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Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 05, 2018, 12:22:00 PM
Very dry air around today, with some dewpoints falling into the teens along the foothills.  it's certainly not the normal spring-time feel to the air outside.   
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: StormNine on April 05, 2018, 08:34:46 PM
The latest models have really weakened the overall system and backed off the snow amounts.  With warm ground temperatures, no heavier bands equal no significant accumulation.  The current 18Z run shows less than 1 inch for Henderson KY when it showed over 6 inches this time yesterday.

To be honest, I would not mind seeing this system fizzle out, I am a 4 seasons man and although I love snow and cooler weather I think it is time for winter to exit stage left. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 06, 2018, 06:06:32 AM
Not going to amount to anything but all models now have frozen precipitation and temps of around 30 degrees for NW Tn. Just your normal April 7th.  ::lookaround::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Curt on April 06, 2018, 06:28:49 AM
Not going to amount to anything but all models now have frozen precipitation and temps of around 30 degrees for NW Tn. Just your normal April 7th.  ::lookaround::
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180406/9d9f69bad47c07239533debc7f3ce75a.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 06, 2018, 06:30:39 AM
And we get back to normal April end next week still like severe weather chance... something to watch
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Charles L. on April 06, 2018, 07:12:25 AM
And we get back to normal April end next week still like severe weather chance... something to watch

You say that every week though
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Curt on April 06, 2018, 07:13:41 AM
You say that every week though

Since March. And at some point we will have severe weather in between the cool downs. Shoot in the dark and you will eventually hit.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 06, 2018, 07:13:59 AM
We got down to 30 yesterday morning, and down to 34 this morning here in the foothills.  Little damage noted on the trees.  Japanese maples are leafed out, albeit not fully, and the hickories and some red oaks have open buds.  Saturday night looks worrisome with some mid to upper 20's expected.  Not good. 

At least two other chances for frosts or freezes before the pattern finally changes.  What a dismal spring this is turning out to be. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Charles L. on April 06, 2018, 07:20:09 AM
The GFS, CMC, and NAM all have a nice shot of winter wx moving across northern sections of middle TN tomorrow morning.

Here is the 6z 3km NAM [attachimg=1][attachimg=2][attachimg=3]
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 06, 2018, 07:23:05 AM
The GFS, CMC, and NAM all have a nice shot of winter wx moving across northern sections of middle TN tomorrow morning.

Here is the 6z 3km NAM (Attachment Link) (Attachment Link) (Attachment Link)

I noticed the NAM even changes precipitation to snow in the central valley around Knoxville.  MRX, however, isn't biting.  Only mentions that far northeast TN and southwest Virginia may see some snow. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 06, 2018, 08:01:31 AM
You say that every week though
im just going by what Iím seeing on models ... canít promise it
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 06, 2018, 10:02:11 AM
12z NAM

(http://i63.tinypic.com/11b65x1.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on April 06, 2018, 10:42:29 AM
Like myself, many of you should admit that you want to see some April snow  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Eric on April 06, 2018, 11:27:13 AM
Like myself, many of you should admit that you want to see some April snow  ::snowman::

I will admit that we changed our plans for tomorrow.  Originally, we were going to head S towards Columbia to look at potential homes but have decided instead to take a trip N up through a Mt Juliet/Lebanon/Hartsville/Lafayette corridor due to the ideas of experiencing some wet snow showers.  But dammit, this is it.  This ::poo:: has got to stop.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on April 06, 2018, 11:28:45 AM
As much as I love snow, keep that white crap out of here. Itís spring now and I want storms.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Drifter49 on April 06, 2018, 11:29:38 AM
Like myself, many of you should admit that you want to see some April snow  ::snowman::

Iím not going to hide the fact that I do.


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Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Curt on April 06, 2018, 11:53:01 AM
im just going by what Iím seeing on models ... canít promise it

Looking at the most accurate model this far out the EURO...the only severe weather threat I can see is a week from tomorrow. Cape is not high in general and timing doesn't look good verbatim. As modeled, I would not call this anything of significance although we know this is far out.

Per Euro control days 10-15, looks like wash, rinse and repeat with a quick warm up, storms, then cool down. Caveat is margin of error this far out.

Post Merge: April 06, 2018, 11:54:08 AM
Just the rarity of frozen precip in April is pretty cool. I am ready for sunny and highs of 70 and lows of 50 for couple months before the heat arrives.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Charles L. on April 06, 2018, 12:45:04 PM
Of course since I love snow I am excited about the idea of seeing snow flying tomorrow! ::snowman::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: StormNine on April 06, 2018, 01:37:18 PM
The 12Z runs continue to renew some interest in tonight and tomorrow morning for KY and adjacent areas of TN.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 06, 2018, 01:59:24 PM
The Latest HRRR has the front moving at a snails pace across northern Arkansas , the boot heel and Kentucky.


(http://i63.tinypic.com/332phma.jpg)

Post Merge: April 06, 2018, 03:27:38 PM
A lot more of the state just got NAM'd at 18z
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Michael on April 06, 2018, 03:43:26 PM
NAM 18z  ::popcorn::

Northern Valley  ::whistling:: (we're in the "blue"!)
Even has 3" up here in Kingsport  ::pondering::

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Curt on April 06, 2018, 03:55:39 PM
3k 18z nam actually has some decent sleet accumulations (for April ) from central and northeast Arkansas into west TN that might even be WWA worthy tomorrow morning.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Curt on April 06, 2018, 04:00:42 PM
Memphis actually took the majority of the forecast zones out of winter precip for tomorrow am. Someone a little conservative hit the forecast button here for tonight with lows almost to the upper 30ís while every model takes them to freezing.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 06, 2018, 04:58:26 PM
Memphis actually took the majority of the forecast zones out of winter precip for tomorrow am. Someone a little conservative hit the forecast button here for tonight with lows almost to the upper 30ís while every model takes them to freezing.
they are not simply buying it... guess i cant blame them in a way... being so late  season...
Title: Spring 2018
Post by: Curt on April 06, 2018, 05:02:11 PM
The Latest HRRR has the front moving at a snails pace across northern Arkansas , the boot heel and Kentucky.


(http://i63.tinypic.com/332phma.jpg)

Post Merge: April 06, 2018, 12:27:38 AM
A lot more of the state just got NAM'd at 18z

Hereís the HRRX at 11am tomorrow

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180406/4f198a5c1f68eaf0f52b001784cd6446.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on April 06, 2018, 05:06:10 PM
Yeah so my softball tournament is officially cancelled thankfully.


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Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 06, 2018, 05:36:13 PM
I'm torn on the prospect of snow in April. While I love snow, and winter in it's proper place, I would rather be grilling out on the porch by now and enjoying a cold drink in one of these:

(https://secure.img2-fg.wfcdn.com/im/acd5c780/resize-h400-p1-w400%5Ecompr-r85/2324/23244882/Jumbo+Caribbean+Polyester+Chair+Hammock.jpg)

I could just brave the elements and grill in the snow.  Done it before.  >:D
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Michael on April 06, 2018, 05:45:58 PM
Hereís the HRRX at 11am tomorrow

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180406/4f198a5c1f68eaf0f52b001784cd6446.jpg)

That's the furthest South model run of any model, and it's the HRRR  ::popcorn::
00Z runs will be interesting  ::coffee::
Title: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on April 06, 2018, 07:53:29 PM
[attach=1]

Not this area- but, thereís a significant tornado on the ground southeast of Shreveport. Louisiana resulting in a tornado emergency in that area at this time.


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Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 06, 2018, 08:13:46 PM
Most recent NAM run actually increasing potential for snow in the central valley of east TN, from Knoxville north and east.  Nothing huge by any means, but a slushy inch is huge for April in Tennessee. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on April 06, 2018, 09:07:54 PM
Most recent NAM run actually increasing potential for snow in the central valley of east TN, from Knoxville north and east.  Nothing huge by any means, but a slushy inch is huge for April in Tennessee.

This is getting more interesting by the hour. HRRR will be in range for our area soon.

Edit: Well... Possibly not. Latest runs favor dry air stealing the frozen side of this system. Looks like flakes now.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 06, 2018, 11:09:48 PM
I don't know about snow but I can confirm the arrival of the Arctic Express. Down to 44 with 20 mph north wind. Holy shot it feels like January.

Post Merge: April 07, 2018, 05:38:55 AM
I now can confirm sleet and 33 degrees with a wind chill of 19. Radar and the latest models do not agree at the moment.
Nice glaze of ice and sleet on everything except ground.

Post Merge: April 07, 2018, 06:49:18 AM
They reissued the Special Weather Statement that they cancelled. It is now 31 degrees here.

Quote
...Light wintry mix across northern portions of the Mid South...

A light wintry mix is expected across areas along and north of the
Interstate 40 corridor this morning. The greatest potential for
light snow and sleet accumulations will be across locations along
and north of a Jonesboro, Arkansas, to Dyersburg, Tennessee, to
Camden, Tennessee, line. In these areas, accumulations of snow and
sleet will range from a dusting up to one half inch. In areas
where temperatures have fallen to freezing or below, some icy
spots may develop, especially on bridges and overpasses. Use
caution if you plan travel across these locations.

Further south along the Interstate 40 corridor, temperatures
should remain just above freezing and any snow or sleet that falls
should not accumulate on roadways.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 07, 2018, 07:18:17 AM
We had over an inch of rain during the night.  As for temperatures, forecast calls for a low around 28 by Sunday morning.  Usually below 28 is when damage starts to occur to any new, tender foliage on plants.  Most oaks are safe--buds are still closed.  Hickories have open buds and some new leaves emerging.  Close call for them.  I'll have to cover the Japanese maple tonight.   

Snow looks less likely today in the central valley, but still a raw, cold, drizzly day with temperatures dropping into the upper 30's by afternoon.  If it isn't going to snow, Winter '17-'18 needs to take a bow and leave the stage, please!
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 07, 2018, 08:34:18 AM
This is a first for me that I can remember and I have been around a long time. 30 degrees and steady light snow falling . I have never seen this setup in April. What a wonderful Spring morning
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on April 07, 2018, 08:37:37 AM
Dyer, I remember sometime around maybe 2004 or so it snowed on April 10th here, we actually received about 2 inches just on the grass. I remember because we had about 4 yards to mow that day and I remember calling my partner and saying are you ready to go mow and we got a good laugh. It was gone by early afternoon. But it snowed hard that night, big flakes.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 07, 2018, 08:41:31 AM
Dyer, I remember sometime around maybe 2004 or so it snowed on April 10th here, we actually received about 2 inches just on the grass. I remember because we had about 4 yards to mow that day and I remember calling my partner and saying are you ready to go mow and we got a good laugh. It was gone by early afternoon. But it snowed hard that night, big flakes.
I have seen snow in April but this is a January setup. Snow getting harder by the minute. Everything getting white.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Charles L. on April 07, 2018, 08:50:41 AM
We got a little snow this morning too! It is having a hard time making its way over here due to the dry air, but some is surviving
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 07, 2018, 09:38:29 AM
Glad some Tennesseans are reaping some white from this.  Light rain and 42 here. 

I did get the grill cleaned and ready.  If snow falls, I'm firing it up!   ::rofl::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Beth on April 07, 2018, 10:39:07 AM
It was a hard blow this morning to our town hearing that the missing little boyís father confessed to killing him.  Our town people have been searching night and day in very cold weather.  I just do not understand it! 😡
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: WXHD on April 07, 2018, 11:33:44 AM
It was a hard blow this morning to our town hearing that the missing little boyís father confessed to killing him.  Our town people have been searching night and day in very cold weather.  I just do not understand it! 😡

That is horrible to hear. I hope for the rest of his life it's 33f and raining.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 07, 2018, 01:52:06 PM
Temp and dewpoint both stuck at 41 currently with a very heavy drizzle falling along with some  dense fog.  If it was still St. Patty's Day, I would think I drank too much and woke up in Ireland. 

https://www.earthcam.com/world/ireland/dublin/?cam=templebar (https://www.earthcam.com/world/ireland/dublin/?cam=templebar)

(Except for the fact they are actually several degrees warmer right now).
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on April 07, 2018, 02:31:55 PM
Friend reporting moderate snow in Scott County.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 07, 2018, 04:23:06 PM
Interesting (discussion from OHX):

Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
336 PM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018

.DISCUSSION...

This was not just an atypical day...it was record setting. Well,
almost. Afternoon temps have been stuck in the 30s (!!) which
would be enough to smash the record low max temps for the
day. However, temps were in the 40s (above these "cold records")
just after midnight, thus no records were set during daylight
hours today. Nonetheless, temps in the 30s with wind chills under
30 at mid afternoon on an April 7th is remarkable. And the
occasional reports of flurries across the south and east counties
at mid afternoon were special, too.

Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Curt on April 07, 2018, 04:26:49 PM
Temp never left the mid 30ís here. Clouds finally breaking for a clear sky and calm wind- not so nice for blooming plants.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 07, 2018, 04:54:15 PM
As bad as this cold snap is, it can't hold a candle (or icicle) to April 2007.  I looked back on some weather records from an old weather station I had back then, and on 4/7/2007 (yep, that's today!) we dropped to a low of 26.  I did not get above freezing until noon the following day, and only achieved a high of 40 around 5 p.m. in the afternoon.  That night we dropped to a low of 23!  No wonder every tree was fried to crisp, and many trees died outright.  The length of time below 32 literally froze the sap in the trunks of many trees, doing irreparable damage. 

One night around 28 doesn't seem too bad now. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Charles L. on April 07, 2018, 04:59:09 PM
We are forecast to hit 24 tonight.  ::cold::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 07, 2018, 05:02:09 PM
We are forecast to hit 24 tonight.  ::cold::

That might do some damage to all things green and growing.  Hopefully, you won't be that cold for a long time.  Length of time below freezing plays a big part in how much damage is done.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: WXHD on April 07, 2018, 05:53:06 PM
We are no where near our forecasted high if 45. Currently at 37. My Japanese Maples are almost sure to be toast. Though, one of the has fully leafed out and should be good to go. The others will be crippled, at 20ft tall, there is no way to prevent the damage.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 07, 2018, 06:20:31 PM
Most trees are ok above 28F.  Below 28, damage begins.  If you stay there for hours, the damage becomes extensive to any foliage or flowers that have opened.  If you drop below 25 and stay there for several hours, some twigs and branches are damaged due to the sap freezing in the cambium (the living tissue that transports water and nutrients in plants).  The longer you stay deep into the 20's, the more damage occurs to plants primed for spring growth. 

Currently, we are cloudy with some drizzle falling here with a temp of 37F.  The longer the clouds linger, the less the temperature drops.  Other than that hope, we are screwed.  ::candle::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on April 07, 2018, 08:16:15 PM
I had 21 degrees for a low on the second night of the 2007 freeze. I remember walking outside early that morning and smelling the burst cellulose. It smelled very strongly of fresh cut lumber and grass. Our hickory tree lost all of its foliage and didnít get it back all year. Not expecting anything like that tonight.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on April 07, 2018, 08:40:04 PM
March 2007 had been so freakishly warm that the trees were mostly leafed out by this date in April. So, it was a one-two punch worst case scenario for the trees. At least the foliage is well behind where it was at that point.


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Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 08, 2018, 01:34:36 AM
I will have to agree with Bruce this time. Models are leaning toward a widespread severe threat or two or three over the next couple weeks. Question is does it make it to the Mid South or Southeast.Might be a lot of model watching going on.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 08, 2018, 06:06:35 AM
Woke up to 31F this morning, and not the 26 forecast by the NWS. Models missed the mark with yesterday's highs, but got it right last night.  By late yesterday afternoon, most short term models like the HRRR and RAP were showing lows closer to freezing in East TN, rather than the mid 20's.  Clouds didn't clear out here until around 4am, which probably helped.

KY didn't fare so well.  Morning temperatures there had dropped into the low and mid 20's, and even to 19 at Monticello in Wayne County.  Same for the plateau in TN.  Most reporting stations in mid and west TN were between 26 and 32.

Post Merge: April 08, 2018, 06:18:45 AM
I had 21 degrees for a low on the second night of the 2007 freeze. I remember walking outside early that morning and smelling the burst cellulose. It smelled very strongly of fresh cut lumber and grass. Our hickory tree lost all of its foliage and didnít get it back all year. Not expecting anything like that tonight.

All the foliage on my oak and hickory trees turned black and died that spring, and the trees had to set new buds and start over.  I remember by early to mid May, some trees were just leafing out again, making for a bare and ugly spring.  Several hickory trees in my neighborhood died that summer due to the freeze and the drought that followed.  Of all my years in TN, that was the worst for anyone with a green thumb.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JHart on April 08, 2018, 07:08:16 AM
It has been below freezing out here since about 10:00 PM last night.  We hovered around 27F for hours.  High clouds encroaching from the SW helped keep us from disaster ... but there will still be  foliage damage.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 08, 2018, 07:26:51 AM
06Z GFS shows another possible bout with freezing temperatures around 4/16-17 after the passage of a mature mid-latitude cyclone.  Could be severe followed by cold, and even some backside flurries as another storm develops along the east coast.  At the very least, the active & wet pattern looks to continue.   
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on April 08, 2018, 07:53:22 AM
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/0FFurjkrJWE/maxresdefault.jpg)

(http://southcoastspeakers.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Star-Wars-Spring.jpg)

Post Merge: April 08, 2018, 08:05:37 AM
There is a heavy frost in Nolensville this morning.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 08, 2018, 08:33:36 AM
It stayed at 29 to 30 here all night. Thankfully no frost because of a DP of 23.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 08, 2018, 12:13:18 PM
Little or no damage apparent to the trees around here.  Even the Japanese maples are fine.  Temperature is in no hurry to recover in the filtered sunshine.  Only up to 45 at 1 pm. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: WXHD on April 08, 2018, 12:26:15 PM
Little or no damage apparent to the trees around here.  Even the Japanese maples are fine.  Temperature is in no hurry to recover in the filtered sunshine.  Only up to 45 at 1 pm.

You got lucky. Two of mine appear to have been zapped  between Thursday and today's temps they are not happy. I'm hoping they recover quickly.

Post Merge: April 08, 2018, 02:30:48 PM
Looks like the next several days will be nice spring weather. Looking forward to it!
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 08, 2018, 03:43:59 PM
You got lucky. Two of mine appear to have been zapped  between Thursday and today's temps they are not happy. I'm hoping they recover quickly.

Post Merge: April 08, 2018, 02:30:48 PM
Looks like the next several days will be nice spring weather. Looking forward to it!

New foliage damage is usually superficial unless you had some extreme cold recently (well below 28).

I'm ready for some spring time temperatures, myself.  Before we know it, we'll be sweltering in 90's and high humidity.  Please, let's have some pleasant weather before that happens.  I want some porch swingin' weather.  :D
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JHart on April 08, 2018, 05:06:30 PM
It has been below freezing out here since about 10:00 PM last night.  We hovered around 27F for hours.  High clouds encroaching from the SW helped keep us from disaster ... but there will still be  foliage damage.
After surveying the yard, I'm surprised to find virtually no foliage damage, even though leaves were frozen stiff this morning.  Flowers on the quince, however, are a different story... but those bushes will rebloom in about a month.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: WXHD on April 08, 2018, 06:31:50 PM
New foliage damage is usually superficial unless you had some extreme cold recently (well below 28).

I'm ready for some spring time temperatures, myself.  Before we know it, we'll be sweltering in 90's and high humidity.  Please, let's have some pleasant weather before that happens.  I want some porch swingin' weather.  :D

I know the damage likely doesn't extend into the branches. Japanese maples going into the secondary buds though can take quite the toll on the plant. I'll keep my fingers crossed and hope all goes well. They're not porch dwellers our eye candy but rather, they are mature trees at 15ft or more. Their dappled shade and tall stature is something I very much enjoy when working in and enjoying my back yard. We hit a low if 27 and change both of the below freezing nights here. Your post has given me hope though. Thanks Jay!
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 09, 2018, 01:05:55 PM
This has got to be one of the coldest springs in recent memory.  12Z GFS continues the cold shots with another one as late as 4/25.  I counted at least 2 more that may deliver some frost or freezing temperatures to the area.  Did a volcano erupt somewhere??? 

Post Merge: April 09, 2018, 01:19:49 PM
I know the damage likely doesn't extend into the branches. Japanese maples going into the secondary buds though can take quite the toll on the plant. I'll keep my fingers crossed and hope all goes well. They're not porch dwellers our eye candy but rather, they are mature trees at 15ft or more. Their dappled shade and tall stature is something I very much enjoy when working in and enjoying my back yard. We hit a low if 27 and change both of the below freezing nights here. Your post has given me hope though. Thanks Jay!

I planted some Japanese maples for my folks in KY around 2010, and they had an extreme bout of cold several nights in a row a few years later in April.  The damage was pretty bad, and I had to prune the trees back severely.  But the lows were around 20-22 two nights in a row.  They just had another bout of that brand of cold this weekend, and Iím afraid the trees will probably need to be pruned again.  Not sure why, but these April cold snaps have been growing intense starting back in 2007.  Itís even worse when the freezing temperatures come on the heels of a February with temperatures in the 80ís that gets all the sap flowing up the tree.    >:(
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2018, 01:40:14 PM
This has got to be one of the coldest springs in recent memory.  12Z GFS continues the cold shots with another one as late as 4/25.  I counted at least 2 more that may deliver some frost or freezing temperatures to the area.  Did a volcano erupt somewhere??? 

Post Merge: April 09, 2018, 01:19:49 PM
I planted some Japanese maples for my folks in KY around 2010, and they had an extreme bout of cold several nights in a row a few years later in April.  The damage was pretty bad, and I had to prune the trees back severely.  But the lows were around 20-22 two nights in a row.  They just had another bout of that brand of cold this weekend, and Iím afraid the trees will probably need to be pruned again.  Not sure why, but these April cold snaps have been growing intense starting back in 2007.  Itís even worse when the freezing temperatures come on the heels of a February with temperatures in the 80ís that gets all the sap flowing up the tree.    >:(
good.... maybe we will get  snow on 4th July...
Be pretty wild....
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 09, 2018, 03:13:57 PM
good.... maybe we will get  snow on 4th July...
Be pretty wild....

Wild?  More like apocalyptic.   ::wow::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Crockett on April 09, 2018, 06:52:00 PM
Nearly 80 on Friday? What the **** is mother nature thinking? She's aware that it's APRIL, no? Warmth in April...offensive!
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Charles L. on April 09, 2018, 07:15:35 PM
Nearly 80 on Friday? What the **** is mother nature thinking? She's aware that it's APRIL, no? Warmth in April...offensive!

My body is having a **** of a time trying to adjust to these temp changes. So I can go ahead and say I will be miserable come Saturday.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on April 10, 2018, 12:35:51 AM
Most of the state will get very close to another freeze next Monday night/ Tuesday morning.

Ugh.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 10, 2018, 07:28:51 AM
Down to 37 this morning with some light frost noted on the cars.  Another bout of frost possible tonight in the foothills with lows in the middle 30's. Then as schneitzeit noted, another frost/freeze possible early next week.  80 on Friday, followed by 50 on Monday. 

Is it just me, or does April seem far colder than February so far? 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: NashRugger on April 10, 2018, 10:33:39 AM
Because it has been, by a wide margin.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 10, 2018, 11:27:10 AM
Down to 37 this morning with some light frost noted on the cars.  Another bout of frost possible tonight in the foothills with lows in the middle 30's. Then as schneitzeit noted, another frost/freeze possible early next week.  80 on Friday, followed by 50 on Monday. 

Is it just me, or does April seem far colder than February so far?
Depends on where you are. NW Tennessee was below normal the first half of February. The second half not so much. We ended up above normal but not by near as much as over your way.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: NashRugger on April 10, 2018, 11:56:45 AM
Hard to believe about this time 9 years ago, the Murfreesboro EF4 would begin it's jaunt across nearly the entirety of Rutherford County.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 10, 2018, 12:07:18 PM
Cool start to spring sure hasnít slowed the pollen down at all...my eyes feel it today ...
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 10, 2018, 12:34:12 PM
Depends on where you are. NW Tennessee was below normal the first half of February. The second half not so much. We ended up above normal but not by near as much as over your way.

Yeah, I remember that now.  While we had a week of 70's & 80's in the east, west and middle was under the rain train.  I do know we haven't had a stretch of warm weather similar to that since. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on April 12, 2018, 12:19:27 AM
Looks like a nasty ice storm for the Great Lakes region at the end of the NAM run:

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 12, 2018, 11:58:06 AM
models starting to pick on a big time severe event late next week... broad bas neg tilted trough with ample moisture return out ahead of this baby ::coffee:: all i saying for now
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Charles L. on April 12, 2018, 01:51:32 PM
models starting to pick on a big time severe event late next week... broad bas neg tilted trough with ample moisture return out ahead of this baby ::coffee:: all i saying for now

3 things in life are certain...death, taxes, and Bruce talking about a severe wx risk for every week of spring. 😉
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Eric on April 12, 2018, 03:31:10 PM
3 things in life are certain...death, taxes, and Bruce talking about a severe wx risk for every week of spring. 😉

D@mn if I didn't LOL.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: StormNine on April 12, 2018, 03:37:21 PM
We do have a Flash Flood Watch, Blowing Dust Advisory, Red Flag Warning, and Wind Advisory all in the same general region.  That is a pretty interesting combo of products.   
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Curt on April 12, 2018, 04:39:01 PM
models starting to pick on a big time severe event late next week... broad bas neg tilted trough with ample moisture return out ahead of this baby ::coffee:: all i saying for now

Over the next 10 days and outside of storms tomorrow night and Saturday , Gfs and euro have only one system with heavy rain and almost NO cape ....in 10 days. What are you looking at?
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 12, 2018, 05:32:04 PM
Over the next 10 days and outside of storms tomorrow night and Saturday , Gfs and euro have only one system with heavy rain and almost NO cape ....in 10 days. What are you looking at?
next weekend system ... keep eye on that one... models starting to pick up on it... and as usual... cape this far out models will under do 9  out of 10 times...
Title: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on April 12, 2018, 06:07:28 PM
We do have a Flash Flood Watch, Blowing Dust Advisory, Red Flag Warning, and Wind Advisory all in the same general region.  That is a pretty interesting combo of products.

Good- after the wind kicks up the dust and the spreads the wildfires, the floods will settle the dust and put out the fires.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on April 13, 2018, 12:03:11 AM
End of NAM 12k run showing snow for eastern TN. Not even joking.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 14, 2018, 06:39:57 AM
NAM & GFS both continue to show snow flying in the air come Monday, especially over eastern areas.  Temperatures by Tuesday morning will be around freezing or a little below in the eastern valley. 

Winter keeps spitting in our direction now that we're ready for spring.  I guess he's not happy about the low grades given to him for this year's performance. 

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-G3-YiUWhtT8/Uxy_v1q9lHI/AAAAAAAADtI/frb42Tc8rS0/s1600/old+man+winter.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on April 14, 2018, 10:52:05 AM
This is like requesting a professor to change your grade one month after the semester has ended and the grades have already been posted. Winter, the opportunity to earn your grade was from December to March. You cannot invent your own extra credit assignments in April, nor will they be accepted. You got a D. Showing up for class for two weeks in January doesn't count, and everyone noticed you let Spring take your quizzes in February.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Curt on April 14, 2018, 12:32:40 PM
Another huge blizzard for almost the exact same areas next weekend. For us, just about the same. Just not seeing the robust and prolonged warm environment needed for any outbreaks of severe weather east of the MS.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 14, 2018, 01:29:56 PM
Code: [Select]
m
Another huge blizzard for almost the exact same areas next weekend. For us, just about the same. Just not seeing the robust and prolonged warm environment needed for any outbreaks of severe weather east of the MS.
actually gfs been pretty close to big outbreak . Nature of the trough ideal . Instability been question ... still gotnwstch system ...  wonít take much get things going ...
Title: Spring 2018
Post by: Drifter49 on April 14, 2018, 04:12:10 PM
Another huge blizzard for almost the exact same areas next weekend. For us, just about the same. Just not seeing the robust and prolonged warm environment needed for any outbreaks of severe weather east of the MS.

Iím heading to Wisconsin where thereís just an advisory just south of the warning area. Could be an interesting drive.
Well just checked again and Random Lake Wisconsin has been upgraded to a warning.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Jilly on April 14, 2018, 04:27:54 PM
(https://i.imgsafe.org/26/26a4a8ec4c.jpeg)
these wide swings in temps are terrible if you have arthritis - this spring is the worst! ::blowup::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 14, 2018, 06:21:11 PM
Two days in a row with temps a little above 80 here has caused an explosion of green--of leaves and pollen.   ::sneezy::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 15, 2018, 10:11:35 AM
Only took a little over a year for Trump to fix Global Warming. 8)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 15, 2018, 01:24:10 PM
dogwood winter now taking shape... next will be blackberry winter... 8)

Post Merge: April 15, 2018, 01:26:53 PM
Only took a little over a year for Trump to fix Global Warming. 8)
check back later with you later on this subject... when winter arrives.... see if its fixed... ::pondering::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: snowdog on April 15, 2018, 03:15:02 PM
Only took a little over a year for Trump to fix Global Warming. 8)

Making Weather Great Again.  ::flag::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 15, 2018, 03:36:26 PM
I agree. ... meg starting to talk bout the system later week...  if instability keeps increasing ... significan severe event in offering like MEG mentions ... system say the least needs watching....
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: WXHD on April 15, 2018, 05:59:01 PM
dogwood winter now taking shape... next will be blackberry winter... 8)

Post Merge: April 15, 2018, 01:26:53 PM
check back later with you later on this subject... when winter arrives.... see if its fixed... ::pondering::

He said MISSION ACCOMPLISHED Bruce, he fixed it!  ::flag::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Beth on April 15, 2018, 07:38:02 PM
Funny post on FB from NWS:


The rain has more or less left the mid state but the clouds have not yet parted. It's noticeably cooler now that the cold front has passed, and most of us can expect a frosty night and blustery Monday. Until further notice, the complaint desk is unmanned as the complaint guy is currently on sabbatical at an undisclosed location in the tropics. So your complaints will go unheard until he returns (probably in the summer). On his way out, the complaint guy told me to pass along that spring hasn't gone anywhere, that cold blustery days are as much a part of spring as warm sunny ones, so don't be wishing for spring to come back. This is spring, too. (Except he used far more colorful language that I've had to sanitize.) I mean, what would spring be if we didn't open our weather apps to a gallimaufry of weather icons? So look for one more frosty night Monday night, then the mercury will soar into the 60's and even 70+ on Tuesday. So for a few hours on Tuesday, the temperature increases will outpace the national debt clock in terms of number-flipping. The next cold front will come through probably Wednesday night, but this one will have far fewer behavioral issues than the last.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JHart on April 15, 2018, 08:08:30 PM
Making Weather Great Again.  ::flag::

... building a great northern wall to keep out illegal arctic intrusions ... and Canada will pay for it!
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 15, 2018, 08:19:52 PM
Minimum high records from 1980 were broke in this area today. That's all of 1980 that I want any part of. We had 23 days over 100 in 1980. Hottest year in my lifetime.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 15, 2018, 08:49:57 PM
Minimum high records from 1980 were broke in this area today. That's all of 1980 that I want any part of. We had 23 days over 100 in 1980. Hottest year in my lifetime.
one of my favorite summers to be honest with you... i take another repeat... ::yum::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 15, 2018, 09:41:15 PM
one of my favorite summers to be honest with you... i take another repeat... ::yum::
  Never make me understand that thinking.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on April 15, 2018, 10:17:56 PM
Minimum high records from 1980 were broke in this area today. That's all of 1980 that I want any part of. We had 23 days over 100 in 1980. Hottest year in my lifetime.

Even hotter than '07 and '12?
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 16, 2018, 04:06:09 AM
Even hotter than '07 and '12?
yes... and it wasnt even close... ::hot::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 16, 2018, 01:57:23 PM
The next storm system taking a track across the Deep South with the warm sector over the Gulf and Florida--a typical track for 3 months ago, not late April.  Hard to get any thunderstorm action in a weather pattern like this. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 16, 2018, 02:39:57 PM
The next storm system taking a track across the Deep South with the warm sector over the Gulf and Florida--a typical track for 3 months ago, not late April.  Hard to get any thunderstorm action in a weather pattern like this.
its more like a miller a system... winter ? Crazy ... this would be a big winter event if it were winter lol
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: cbrentv318 on April 16, 2018, 02:42:41 PM
its more like a miller a system... winter ? Crazy ... this would be a big winter event if it were winter lol
So another wet and cool weekend?


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Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 16, 2018, 02:43:49 PM
So another wet and cool weekend?


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affraid so....
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Beth on April 17, 2018, 06:41:55 AM
We are so behind on our granddaughterís soccer games this season.  Every Saturday they have been canceled because of rain.  We have to do 3 make games this week. I am so sick of this cold and wet crap! Mother Nature is definitely off her bipolar meds this year.! 🤬😡🤬
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on April 17, 2018, 06:49:57 AM
Oh man . . .
(https://i.imgur.com/xqxCLP3.jpg)
I had visible damage to my shrubs and my Jane magnolia. I think my azaleas are ok because only the branches up against the bricks of my house had opened. Spent at least 6 hours below freezing. Blew the forecast low by 6 degrees.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on April 17, 2018, 06:58:40 AM
Widespread freeze- official at Nashville (keeping in mind UHI effect) last hour at 30. Iím sure mid 20s are common in rural areas.


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Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 17, 2018, 07:08:59 AM
We are so behind on our granddaughterís soccer games this season.  Every Saturday they have been canceled because of rain.  We have to do 3 make games this week. I am so sick of this cold and wet crap! Mother Nature is definitely off her bipolar meds this year.! 🤬😡🤬
guess what the 4 cast is for the weekend ... you got it ....
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 17, 2018, 07:24:17 AM
Oh man . . .
(https://i.imgur.com/xqxCLP3.jpg)
I had visible damage to my shrubs and my Jane magnolia. I think my azaleas are ok because only the branches up against the bricks of my house had opened. Spent at least 6 hours below freezing. Blew the forecast low by 6 degrees.

I was worried last night about it being colder than forecast as we we're already down to 35 by sunset.  However, clouds and wind lingered here overnight, and we remained at 35 until a few hours before sunrise when we dipped briefly to near freezing.

Hope the damage isn't too bad down your way.  Been a rough spring for green thumbs.  Another cold snap Thursday has us back in the mid 30's for lows--cold enough for frost. 

Post Merge: April 17, 2018, 07:36:01 AM
Per MRX on Thursday--looking colder.

Quote
The cold air advection behind the departing system [on Thursday] is rather
impressive for mid-April and have reduced high temperatures some on
Thursday and have leaned more towards the raw model guidance. Highs
on Thursday will range from the mid 50s to low 60s for most valley
locations.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on April 17, 2018, 10:41:17 AM
As forecast, temperatures are surging up- already up 25 degrees in a span of 3 hours on the wings of a southwesterly flow. It should already be feeling pleasant compared to the last few days. This morning's frost and freeze is a memory other than with any wilting vegetation that was nipped.  :'(

Post Merge: April 17, 2018, 11:13:45 AM
We are so behind on our granddaughterís soccer games this season.  Every Saturday they have been canceled because of rain.  We have to do 3 make games this week. I am so sick of this cold and wet crap! Mother Nature is definitely off her bipolar meds this year.! 🤬😡🤬

This Saturday currently looks nice (Pt. Sunny and 68). Showers enter the forecast Saturday night and Sunday, with temps still in the mid 60s.

We have another brief cooldown coming on Thursday-Friday this week.

Really hoping we're about to emerge from this persistently cool pattern soon.

Some folks refer to "cotton britches winter" in May- so, cool snaps can still happen. I'm not sure what "winter" we've been in- I guess an extended dogwood winter.

Here's a list of the "winters" of Tennessee spring: https://halfhillfarm.com/2013/05/13/the-five-little-winters-of-tennessee/

The way this spring has gone, I won't at all be surprised if we have a cool snap going into June (where we touch the 40s at night). Now, watch it be 100 degrees come June.  ;)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: wfrogge on April 17, 2018, 12:10:47 PM
As forecast, temperatures are surging up- already up 25 degrees in a span of 3 hours on the wings of a southwesterly flow. It should already be feeling pleasant compared to the last few days. This morning's frost and freeze is a memory other than with any wilting vegetation that was nipped.  :'(

Post Merge: April 17, 2018, 11:13:45 AM
This Saturday currently looks nice (Pt. Sunny and 68). Showers enter the forecast Saturday night and Sunday, with temps still in the mid 60s.

We have another brief cooldown coming on Thursday-Friday this week.

Really hoping we're about to emerge from this persistently cool pattern soon.

Some folks refer to "cotton britches winter" in May- so, cool snaps can still happen. I'm not sure what "winter" we've been in- I guess an extended dogwood winter.

Here's a list of the "winters" of Tennessee spring: https://halfhillfarm.com/2013/05/13/the-five-little-winters-of-tennessee/

The way this spring has gone, I won't at all be surprised if we have a cool snap going into June (where we touch the 40s at night). Now, watch it be 100 degrees come June.  ;)

Its still mid April so we are leaving Redbud and entering Dogwood winter no?
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 17, 2018, 12:22:50 PM
I thought the winters (redbud, dogwood, blackberry) in spring were like the Indian summers in fall--they happened after a sustained period of warm (in spring) or cold (in fall).  If that's the case, we're still having just plain ole winter, no addendum needed. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 17, 2018, 12:25:40 PM
Its still mid April so we are leaving Redbud and entering Dogwood winter no?
yess
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on April 17, 2018, 01:46:04 PM
Its still mid April so we are leaving Redbud and entering Dogwood winter no?

According to that link, I suppose.

I think people call it based on what's in bloom at the time, not really what the calendar date is. So, those dates are mostly just an average guess.

I always thought of dogwoods being in bloom (and thus a "dogwood winter" cold snap) earlier than late April. If anything, the trees seem to be behind a bit compared to a lot of years because of the cooler March and April so far.

It probably varies across the state.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 17, 2018, 01:56:48 PM
Judah Cohen (per Twitter):

Quote
Predicted ridging in the center of North of America will likely bring widespread above normal temperatures across much of the continent as the month transitions from April to May.

Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on April 17, 2018, 02:08:32 PM
Crazy as it is with temperatures this morning undercutting forecast lows- afternoon highs are actually overachieving. Would you believe Nashville is showing a current temperature of 73. That's a 43-degree swing from the early morning temperature I saw reported. And, there's still time for the mercury to climb a degree or two more this afternoon. Wow.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: wfrogge on April 17, 2018, 02:16:49 PM
Well at least we had an extended period of spring weather this year. Now time for the ridge to kick in and bring the heat....  So much for severe season
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 17, 2018, 02:20:33 PM
Well at least we had an extended period of spring weather this year. Now time for the ridge to kick in and bring the heat....  So much for severe season
not quite yet... we got a good 6 week window timeframe  to score before things migrate  toward the plains
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: wfrogge on April 17, 2018, 02:26:14 PM
not quite yet... we got a good 6 week window timeframe  to score before things migrate  toward the plains

For a normal year I would agree with you, not so much this go around IMHO. It is going to go from cool to hot here in the south and quicker than you think.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on April 17, 2018, 02:46:15 PM
I bet it's not out of reach that someone sees a 50+ degree swing in temperatures from today's low to today's high.

Post Merge: April 17, 2018, 03:54:45 PM
We may actually do it in Nashville. Currently official is 79 degrees (way up from the earlier forecasted 69). It's very possible the station nudges 80 between the hourly reports. That would be a 50 degree climb from this morning's low of 30.

Pretty amazing.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 17, 2018, 04:28:26 PM
Big difference in temps in parts of the state.  66 here, mid 70's in southeast and middle TN, and some lower 80's showing up out west. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Clay on April 17, 2018, 06:33:46 PM
Welcome to Nashville. A beautiful, balmy 79F day.. did I mentioned it snowed yesterday?
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on April 17, 2018, 08:55:29 PM
26 this morning, 76 when I got home from work. Amazing.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: WXHD on April 17, 2018, 09:54:08 PM
Low of 30.2, high of 80.0 here. 49.8 is close enough isn't it?
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 18, 2018, 05:24:18 PM
Tomorrow's high temperatures just keep dropping--now forecast to be barely 50.  That will make a hard freeze more likely tomorrow night, if that's as warm as we get during the day. Right now, the forecast calls for 33 by Friday morning, but that may be optimistic at this point.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JHart on April 18, 2018, 05:43:53 PM
This spring, weather forecasts have consistently underestimated the strength of the cold air intrusions.  In our area, Tuesday morning's lows were four degrees colder than forecast.  I am already preparing for another night in the 20's tomorrow.  Sigh.   ::shrug::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 18, 2018, 06:35:05 PM
This spring, weather forecasts have consistently underestimated the strength of the cold air intrusions.  In our area, Tuesday morning's lows were four degrees colder than forecast.  I am already preparing for another night in the 20's tomorrow.  Sigh.   ::shrug::

It's been an abysmal spring for growers and farmers. Apple orchards are preparing for a bad year, especially for our neighbors to the north in Kentucky after nearly two weeks of unusual cold and multiple late freezes.  Strawberry farmers are also struggling and probably losing some or all of their crops. 

https://www.newschannel5.com/news/strawberry-farmer-frustrated-over-spring-freeze (https://www.newschannel5.com/news/strawberry-farmer-frustrated-over-spring-freeze)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on April 20, 2018, 07:13:38 AM
Itís frosty again this morning. The next time I see frost, there better be college football on that weekend. And I donít mean spring games either. ;)


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Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on April 20, 2018, 07:16:11 AM
MRX was right to exclude the Chattanooga area from the frost advisory. It was cold enough for it this morning, but it is hard for frost to form when the wind is gusting over 20 mph.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JHart on April 20, 2018, 07:18:14 AM
We had yet another subfreezing night out here with a heavy frost.  We reached a minimum temperature of 31F... five degrees lower than forecast.  At least this time we were below freezing for only a couple of hours, instead of eight hours on Monday night / Tuesday morning.

This March weather is well past its expiration date and is starting to smell.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 20, 2018, 07:55:48 AM
Looking at the forecast. Tomorrowís high is 70. Thatís the only time we are supposed to hit 70 the next 7 days. Highs in the 60s and lows in upper 40s and low 50s.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 20, 2018, 08:13:54 AM
Looking at the forecast. Tomorrowís high is 70. Thatís the only time we are supposed to hit 70 the next 7 days. Highs in the 60s and lows in upper 40s and low 50s.
wow... someone is alive on here... yeah... its after the 7 day period.  we finally start to flirt with pushing toward 80 mark finally...
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 20, 2018, 08:23:20 AM
Heavy frost in open areas this morning, as we touched 32 near sunrise.

Zero complaints here about the next two days.  Sunshine, blue skies, and temperatures between 65-70.  Going to spend every minute I can outside come tomorrow.   
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on April 20, 2018, 08:40:04 AM
This next heavy rain event really needs to be the last one for a good while. I canít keep doing this ****. Itís ruining my life at this point and may force me into another line of work soon, no joke.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 20, 2018, 12:05:59 PM
12Z GFS show little real warmth in our future, and even another cold shot with possible near freezing temperatures around the 28th.  Nuts.  I don't recall a spring like this since moving here in 2003.  Every spring has it cold spells, but this spring the whole pattern has been cold and well below normal with an occasional warm day thrown in--the complete opposite of most springs around here. 
Title: Spring 2018
Post by: Curt on April 20, 2018, 01:20:21 PM
12Z GFS show little real warmth in our future, and even another cold shot with possible near freezing temperatures around the 28th.  Nuts.  I don't recall a spring like this since moving here in 2003.  Every spring has it cold spells, but this spring the whole pattern has been cold and well below normal with an occasional warm day thrown in--the complete opposite of most springs around here.

Euro weeklies 46 day average 2m temp anomaly.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180420/81730038cbd49b114c6266acb9ada1d7.jpg)


Cool start to spring and maybe even summer. I assume at some point in June we will go haywire for heat. In the meantime, I plan on enjoying a prolonged period of 60ís and 70ís for highs. I need to move to Montana anyways.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 20, 2018, 01:52:38 PM
Euro weeklies 46 day average 2m temp anomaly.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180420/81730038cbd49b114c6266acb9ada1d7.jpg)


Cool start to spring and maybe even summer. I assume at some point in June we will go haywire for heat. In the meantime, I plan on enjoying a prolonged period of 60ís and 70ís for highs. I need to move to Montana anyways.
cool with me.  Could mean extended chances of severe wx . We see
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 20, 2018, 01:53:34 PM
Euro weeklies 46 day average 2m temp anomaly.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180420/81730038cbd49b114c6266acb9ada1d7.jpg)


Cool start to spring and maybe even summer. I assume at some point in June we will go haywire for heat. In the meantime, I plan on enjoying a prolonged period of 60ís and 70ís for highs. I need to move to Montana anyways.

To have two relatively cool summers back to back would be pretty amazing for this area, especially nowadays.  The one thing that would keep this summer tilted toward cooler is the continuation of the soaking rains.  It's difficult to have a real, lasting heat wave with saturated soils. Hot, stagnant high pressure and very wet ground repel each other like the same poles on a magnet.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on April 20, 2018, 04:45:29 PM
Read today that Oklahoma has not yet reported a single spring tornado.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 20, 2018, 06:39:31 PM
Read today that Oklahoma has not yet reported a single spring tornado.

I'm sure most living there are glad about that bit of news.

Post Merge: April 21, 2018, 03:01:07 PM
Ok...you know it's slow weather-wise when a marginal risk makes BIG headlines.   ;D

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/locally-strong-storms-to-eye-southern-us-into-monday/ar-AAw8k2m?ocid=spartandhp (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/locally-strong-storms-to-eye-southern-us-into-monday/ar-AAw8k2m?ocid=spartandhp)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on April 21, 2018, 06:12:06 PM
If there are still no reported tornadoes in Oklahoma by April 26th, 2018 will top 1962 as the latest start to tornado season there.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 21, 2018, 07:04:20 PM
It was one of those days that, if you could, it would be bottled up and saved.   Absolutely beautiful here, and feeling blessed to have been around to enjoy it as much as I did. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on April 22, 2018, 04:51:10 PM
Looks like all of the globals now have a precip max very near the Chattanooga area of 3-5 inches. A flood watch may have been warranted here. We just had 2-3Ē of rain last weekend. Also looks like itís going to get quite windy tonight.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 23, 2018, 07:36:24 AM
Thanks to a southeast wind and the usual rain shadow, areas around here east of Knoxville will be lucky to get near an inch. Just .18" overnight.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: wfrogge on April 23, 2018, 10:26:48 AM
Jesus will this patter break anytime soon? Seems like for about a month now the pattern has looked to change "in about two weeks" but never does. If this is going to be spring lets just move on to 90 degrees + and summer
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 23, 2018, 11:15:56 AM
Looks like the ULL is stalled. Radar has not changed all morning. Pivoting right over west Tn.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: NashRugger on April 23, 2018, 11:29:21 AM
So far have picked up 2.62in here on the north side of the Boro for this even, a solid 1/3in just from a heavy shower this morning.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Curt on April 23, 2018, 02:05:09 PM
Looks like the ULL is stalled. Radar has not changed all morning. Pivoting right over west Tn.

This is one slow moving system. Keep waiting for rain to move out and it just wonít
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 23, 2018, 03:41:33 PM
Stranger Spring. . .(per MRX):

Quote
One thing to note is that late April and early May tend to be an
active time of the year for strong to severe storms. Based on the
latest long-term forecast, do not even have a mention of
thunderstorms in the forecast after Tuesday.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Mister2011 on April 23, 2018, 04:03:25 PM
(https://media.giphy.com/media/5n2cCBcc0ZtHlqqWTI/giphy-downsized-large.gif)

Not kidding about how slow moving this is!
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 23, 2018, 04:49:45 PM
There was some crazy rain totals last night north of 40 over towards the Tennessee River in West Tn . Water was over Hwy 22 in Huntington this morning.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Beth on April 23, 2018, 06:15:29 PM
Wondering is this summer going to be cool and rainy too?  I sure hope we just get the gentle afternoon tstorms after a good hot day! 😊😘
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: WXHD on April 23, 2018, 06:44:23 PM
I'm really enjoying the water vapor map on the homepage. Been there a couple of weeks and I thank the mods for including it!
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 23, 2018, 07:29:50 PM
Wondering is this summer going to be cool and rainy too?  I sure hope we just get the gentle afternoon tstorms after a good hot day! 😊😘

I love a good late evening cooling thunderstorm right before sunset.  The sweet smell of the rain, the rumbling and rolling thunder, and the flashes of lightning as twilight decends, is one of summer's best offerings and pleasures. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on April 23, 2018, 09:13:27 PM
After getting a long break in the rain today, itís back with a vengeance this evening. Up to 3.30Ē storm total now with about half of that in the last 90 minutes.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: harlequin on April 23, 2018, 09:47:09 PM
Cut off lows are gross. It was dark in my office all day.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 24, 2018, 08:45:19 AM
The Great Smoky Mts. have spared this area from the heavy rain.  Only about .25 total so far, but much more has fallen just to our west in Knox county. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Crockett on April 24, 2018, 09:16:53 AM
Piss on spring.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Charles L. on April 24, 2018, 09:53:34 AM
Piss on spring.

FL/GA Lines next single?
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Beth on April 24, 2018, 11:06:45 AM
I love a good late evening cooling thunderstorm right before sunset.  The sweet smell of the rain, the rumbling and rolling thunder, and the flashes of lightning as twilight decends, is one of summer's best offerings and pleasures.

You described it perfectly!!!😘
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: NashRugger on April 24, 2018, 12:04:41 PM
It looks like we're finally going to get a pattern change this weekend into next week with some of the first signs of a potential robust severe threat for the Plains into parts of the South early to mid next week.

Obviously things may change, but there's a general agreement for ridging over the east coast and troughing out west.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on April 24, 2018, 12:34:16 PM
The Great Smoky Mts. have spared this area from the heavy rain.  Only about .25 total so far, but much more has fallen just to our west in Knox county.
Thatís amazing. Up to 4.3Ē storm total here.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 24, 2018, 02:00:23 PM
It looks like we're finally going to get a pattern change this weekend into next week with some of the first signs of a potential robust severe threat for the Plains into parts of the South early to mid next week.

Obviously things may change, but there's a general agreement for ridging over the east coast and troughing out west.

At least the potential could be there as the trough out west migrates into the Plains.  With the Southeast Ridge finally flexing some muscle, there will be a strong southerly flow ahead of the trough with plenty of moisture and more heat than we've seen at any point this spring so far. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: WXHD on April 24, 2018, 04:34:12 PM
My backyard has loved the rain. It's looking like a jungle. I Just mowed a week ago. [attachimg=1][attachimg=2]

Post Merge: April 24, 2018, 04:40:56 PM
The carnivorous plants on the right are coming out of dormancy nicely and those in the left are tropical. The tentacles are a sticky tape typ trap and the pretty little flower have their feeding mechanism below ground and eat bugs in the dirt. [attachimg=1]

Don't know why it repeated a photo.

Post Merge: April 24, 2018, 04:43:38 PM
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 24, 2018, 04:44:16 PM
Chris Baily had an interesting tidbit on his blog today. .  .

Quote
This has been a very, very odd severe weather season across the country. Even as cold as it has been in Kentucky, we have still had 22 tornadoes already, which is way above normal for this time period. Thatís 22 more tornadoes than Oklahoma and Kansas COMBINED. Thatís right, the heart of tornado alley has not had a single tornado and the month of April is a week from wrapping up. Thatís insane.

Kentuckyís 22 tornadoes are second only to Alabamaís 30.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on April 24, 2018, 05:54:03 PM
Chris Baily had an interesting tidbit on his blog today. .  .

Incredible. Kentucky has witnessed at least two snowstorms this April. This APRIL. And Brownsville, TX, New Orleans, and Savannah, GA have all seen more snow than most of Oklahoma. There must be a massive dome over the southern plains. Who knows, maybe that's where the funding for Trump's wall went  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 24, 2018, 06:54:28 PM
At least the potential could be there as the trough out west migrates into the Plains.  With the Southeast Ridge finally flexing some muscle, there will be a strong southerly flow ahead of the trough with plenty of moisture and more heat than we've seen at any point this spring so far.
may really begins the tornado season in the plains... and according to models... if correct, things should be picking up there... guess depending how strong the se ridge flexes... will determine if we get on some severe wx action down the road....
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on April 24, 2018, 07:25:33 PM
may really begins the tornado season in the plains... and according to models... if correct, things should be picking up there... guess depending how strong the se ridge flexes... will determine if we get on some severe wx action down the road....

Yeah, mid to late May is the scariest time for anybody living around the southern 1-44 corridor.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 25, 2018, 07:25:24 AM
Having lived through two Super Outbreaks in April ('74 in northern KY & '11 in east TN), I feel like I'm over the hump once that month is passed.  May can certainly have a mean, stormy side, but she can't hold a candle to that wild girl April.   
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 25, 2018, 07:37:09 AM
Having lived through two Super Outbreaks in April ('74 in northern KY & '11 in east TN), I feel like I'm over the hump once that month is passed.  May can certainly have a mean, stormy side, but she can't hold a candle to that wild girl April.
big outbreak 03. May was a big event ... pretty stormy pattern we got into for bout 2 weeks ....
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 25, 2018, 09:38:45 AM
big outbreak 03. May was a big event ... pretty stormy pattern we got into for bout 2 weeks ....

In year's like this one where spring is delayed, May could be the more active month.  However, if the SR builds, spring severe could skip the southeast altogether and become centered more in the Plains, which is normal for May, and especially June.  In this very unique and unusual spring, it's anyone's guess.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on April 25, 2018, 10:36:29 AM
I recall a memorable outbreak pretty late in May 1995. I think it was May 18 that year. Area-wise, it was a similar outbreak to April 16, 1998. Tornadoes hit the Madison area and around Lawrence County (where I believe there were fatalities). There were also some big hailers that day.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Curt on April 25, 2018, 11:34:04 AM
The first couple weeks of May can produce but as Jaycee said- the Bermuda Ridge should start to show up in some fashion pushing the jet stream north and west of here, leading to summer type storms or even at times a NW flow. Itís hard to believe hurricane season starts in about a month or so. The next winter thread should get going in about 2-3 months lol.

In the meantime, should be an extended period of highs in the 70ís and lows in the 50ís. No complaints here.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 25, 2018, 11:52:17 AM
I recall a memorable outbreak pretty late in May 1995. I think it was May 18 that year. Area-wise, it was a similar outbreak to April 16, 1998. Tornadoes hit the Madison area and around Lawrence County (where I believe there were fatalities). There were also some big hailers that day.
may 25th 2011. The famous year for severe wx. We were under a high risk by the spc ... Bermuda ridge usually gets cranking early June.  In earnest 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 25, 2018, 12:25:01 PM
In the meantime, should be an extended period of highs in the 70ís and lows in the 50ís. No complaints here.

A perfect gem of a weekend coming up with awesome temperatures and sunny, blue skies.  I only wish we had more hours in a day to enjoy weekends like this one.   Gonna get up and out early.  Maybe take a ride in the old jeep on a back country road.  Ah, good times. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on April 25, 2018, 01:27:01 PM
big outbreak 03. May was a big event ... pretty stormy pattern we got into for bout 2 weeks ....

I remember the May '03 tornado in Jackson/Madison County. Our family was at the beach at the time, watching the radar on national news.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: cgauxknox on April 25, 2018, 01:30:59 PM
A perfect gem of a weekend coming up with awesome temperatures and sunny, blue skies.  I only wish we had more hours in a day to enjoy weekends like this one.   Gonna get up and out early.  Maybe take a ride in the old jeep on a back country road.  Ah, good times.
I'll spend a good chunk of the day Saturday on the interstate instead of backroads as I have to be back and forth to Bristol for work, but while there at least I'll be outside.  I'll be glad to have some sun rather than the incessant cloud cover we can't seem to escape this week!  Next weekend may be the right weather to take a drive in the mountains with the sunroof open.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 25, 2018, 01:39:11 PM
I'll spend a good chunk of the day Saturday on the interstate instead of backroads as I have to be back and forth to Bristol for work, but while there at least I'll be outside.  I'll be glad to have some sun rather than the incessant cloud cover we can't seem to escape this week!  Next weekend may be the right weather to take a drive in the mountains with the sunroof open.
 

It has been one of the cloudiest Aprils/springs in recent memory.  We have one sunny day, then 4 dark, cloudy days.  Gets depressing.  That's why I'm looking forward to some clear skies this weekend. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Curt on April 26, 2018, 08:37:29 AM
Tropical like rains this morning. ULL stuck on top of me.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 26, 2018, 08:56:14 AM
Tropical like rains this morning. ULL stuck on top of me.
For the second time in 4 days.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 26, 2018, 09:13:28 AM
Looks like good Chance Oklahoma scoreless streak on tornadoes may end next week....
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on April 26, 2018, 09:25:22 AM
I'm ready for the California coast weather this weekend. I appreciate the brilliant green, but all this rain is making it hard for me to stay awake.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on April 26, 2018, 09:52:43 AM
Weird pattern of meandering lows we're having.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2018, 10:06:38 AM
This... seems like more rain than expected. Very dreary day in Memphis.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: cgauxknox on April 26, 2018, 10:30:01 AM
[attachimg=1]At least the rain is coming straight down...a wee bit to the side.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 26, 2018, 10:31:21 AM
Memphis In may event goes on next weekend ... one range gfs has a severe wx look ... depending on how strong se ridge can be or even develops ...  if severe threat moves east of the plains late next week
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 26, 2018, 05:26:41 PM
This is about as ugly as a late April day gets.  Very low dark clouds, light rain, and temperatures stuck in the mid-50's.  It's so dark, some of the street lights have been on most of the afternoon. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2018, 09:03:11 PM
Ha, this popped up on my FB feed today. An iconic (for the <2,000 students there at the time) photo of a suspect cloud over the Rhodes College library on the evening of April 26, 2011 during my sophomore year. Shelby County was under a tornado warning at the time as a rotating thunderstorm moved from Marion through north Midtown and North Memphis. I think the rotation was actually a few miles north of campus, but it really set the scene for that awful week in April. Truly an incredible two months of weather.

(https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/216493_10150163759242950_7048144_n.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=a8a5de0ded967d63e08c3536203325ae&oe=5B57DD5D)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Curt on April 26, 2018, 09:49:49 PM
Ha, this popped up on my FB feed today. An iconic (for the <2,000 students there at the time) photo of a suspect cloud over the Rhodes College library on the evening of April 26, 2011 during my sophomore year. Shelby County was under a tornado warning at the time as a rotating thunderstorm moved from Marion through north Midtown and North Memphis. I think the rotation was actually a few miles north of campus, but it really set the scene for that awful week in April. Truly an incredible two months of weather.

(https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/216493_10150163759242950_7048144_n.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=a8a5de0ded967d63e08c3536203325ae&oe=5B57DD5D)
Looks like a Harry Potter movie
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 27, 2018, 07:39:53 AM
Already a day 6 30 percent risk for central plains ... impressive
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 27, 2018, 08:27:34 AM
Enjoy the dry for the next 5-7 days.  Signs of the trough in the west digging into the Plains afterwards, bringing more moisture into the Ohio and TN Valleys.  As long as it's not the dark, dreary 50's, I can deal with some afternoon thunderstorms and lower 80's.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/333zrjb.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 27, 2018, 08:44:49 AM
Enjoy the dry for the next 5-7 days.  Signs of the trough in the west digging into the Plains afterwards, bringing more moisture into the Ohio and TN Valleys.  As long as it's not the dark, dreary 50's, I can deal with some afternoon thunderstorms and lower 80's.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/333zrjb.gif)
agree. Bring on the storms. ....boring weather blows
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 27, 2018, 09:04:12 AM
agree. Bring on the storms. ....boring weather blows

7 years ago today, the weather was anything but boring. 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/a-look-back-at-the-super-tornado-outbreak-of-april-2011/zndm41zje6vol7t68ddvt26pnayjv_tz (https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/a-look-back-at-the-super-tornado-outbreak-of-april-2011/zndm41zje6vol7t68ddvt26pnayjv_tz)

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/photos-devastating-tornado-scars-still-visible-from-aerial-views-years-after-2011-super-outbreak/70004777 (https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/photos-devastating-tornado-scars-still-visible-from-aerial-views-years-after-2011-super-outbreak/70004777)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on April 27, 2018, 10:53:46 AM
Wow- 7 years. Hard to believe we're coming up on the 8-year anniversary of the 2010 floods that hit West and Middle TN so hard.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Crockett on April 27, 2018, 11:16:43 AM
agree. Bring on the storms. ....boring weather blows

After the spring we've had, anyone who is complaining about a few days of sunny, warm weather obviously has a fragile state of mind.  >:D
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 27, 2018, 11:23:01 AM
After the spring we've had, anyone who is complaining about a few days of sunny, warm weather obviously has a fragile state of mind.  >:D
hold. Now wait minute.  I didnít say I take some warm sunshine ...
Just plain sick of the 50
Degree rainy days for sure. Lol
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Beth on April 27, 2018, 11:30:59 AM
After getting soaking wet and frozen at Soccer practice this past Tuesday evening, I never ever will complain about heat and humidity again. The 80s next week are looking real sweet! 😘😘😘
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Curt on April 27, 2018, 11:44:42 AM
You wonít hear a peep from me ...until the 7 day is straight 95+.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 27, 2018, 12:09:37 PM
The weekend looks awesome, albeit a bit cool on Sunday for riding topless in the Jeep.  ;D  (And, yes, I'm talking about the Jeep, not me!)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: cgauxknox on April 27, 2018, 12:14:09 PM
The weekend looks awesome, albeit a bit cool on Sunday for riding topless in the Jeep.  ;D  (And, yes, I'm talking about the Jeep, not me!)
I need all the sunshine I can get right now; with so much rain my lawn has grown so much since I cut on Saturday that I think I'm going to have to double cut it this time to keep from choking my mower.  But, it looks truly beautiful for an outdoor graduation in Bristol tomorrow so my work trip should be a good one.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 27, 2018, 01:03:09 PM
You wonít hear a peep from me ...until the 7 day is straight 95+.
my kind of weather.  Looking forward to it
Be honest
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on April 27, 2018, 04:00:04 PM
After getting soaking wet and frozen at Soccer practice this past Tuesday evening, I never ever will complain about heat and humidity again. The 80s next week are looking real sweet! 😘😘😘

I'll bet you on that  >:D
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Charles L. on April 27, 2018, 05:05:57 PM
My allergies are getting the best of me, so time for me to go into hibernation until September (football season, gotta be back for it!)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 28, 2018, 06:52:36 AM
My yard is all Bermuda that I keep sprayed. It will be well into May before I have to mow.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 28, 2018, 02:43:57 PM
Here we are at the end of April, and Kentucky is once again covered in frost warnings with freeze warnings just north of there in Indiana and Ohio. 

Been a beautiful day here--sunshine and temperatures in the low 70's with a decent breeze until now.  Now clouds are increasing as the cold front approaches, and winds are gusting over 20 mph at times.  Still no complaints.  Building a small patio outside, and hardly breaking a sweat.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 28, 2018, 03:15:55 PM
Here we are at the end of April, and Kentucky is once again covered in frost warnings with freeze warnings just north of there in Indiana and Ohio. 

Been a beautiful day here--sunshine and temperatures in the low 70's with a decent breeze until now.  Now clouds are increasing as the cold front approaches, and winds are gusting over 20 mph at times.  Still no complaints.  Building a small patio outside, and hardly breaking a sweat.
im complaining .... Iím ready for heat n humidity  >:D
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on April 28, 2018, 04:02:53 PM
We have totally missed out on spring this year.. Will it come late or will it be one of those frost to heat wave years.. This is unreal.. The forecast is so boring to follow now.. Its depressing. We (I) need storms.. Please mother nature provide us with a stormy pattern before we enter summers boring weather months.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 28, 2018, 08:27:33 PM
Lawd, some peeps can't be pleased.  I'm in paradise.  Outside on the deck with absolutely no bugs annoying me because of the cool weather...enjoying the full moon, listening to the whippoorwills that just arrived, and I can't find a reason to be unhappy on this fine Saturday evening. 

Cheers.   ::guitar::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 28, 2018, 08:52:41 PM
 ::sleeping::
Lawd, some peeps can't be pleased.  I'm in paradise.  Outside on the deck with absolutely no bugs annoying me because of the cool weather...enjoying the full moon, listening to the whippoorwills that just arrived, and I can't find a reason to be unhappy on this fine Saturday evening. 

Cheers.   ::guitar::
::sleeping::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on April 29, 2018, 06:36:07 AM
Looks like a severe weather pattern in the Plains around about Wednesday.

A stretch of 80s coming here. I guess May will come in like May after the weird April pattern.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 29, 2018, 07:49:44 AM
SPC has a day 3 enhanced area for parts of the plains. That is strong for a day 3.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 29, 2018, 08:49:37 AM
SPC has a day 3 enhanced area for parts of the plains. That is strong for a day 3.
its been at 30 percent since day 5 risk... in the 4 to 8 day convective outllook... which would lead to least enhance...
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JHart on April 30, 2018, 06:55:54 AM
The temperature out here dropped to 34F early this morning ... with a lot of slushy frost.  I would guess there were places near the KY/TN border that briefly dipped below freezing.  ::cold::

Can I have another serving of spring now?  The first one wasn't thawed out and had freezer burn.

Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on April 30, 2018, 07:04:48 AM
Tomorrow is the first day of May, and I have frost on the grass.


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Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 30, 2018, 07:56:49 AM
Ended up the second coldest April on record in West Tn and Jonesboro. Ended the month with an average of 53.5.  1983 and 1907 were number depending on what station.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Coach B on April 30, 2018, 08:03:40 AM
I had 36 on the hill which translates to very close to freezing down in the bottom field. Widespread frost, but not a hard one. Hourly reports for both Lewisburg and Shelbyville dropped to freezing at 6 am. Hopefully thats it. Time to get the garden started and quit burning firewood.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on April 30, 2018, 08:26:59 AM
That first dip in the pool (or lake) in the next few weeks may be chilly, unless we really have a good stretch of warm (even hot) weather in May. I would imagine the latent ground temperatures are a little behind where they normally are at this time.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on April 30, 2018, 08:33:26 AM
The temperature out here dropped to 34F early this morning ... with a lot of slushy frost.  I would guess there were places near the KY/TN border that briefly dipped below freezing.  ::cold::

Can I have another serving of spring now?  The first one wasn't thawed out and had freezer burn.

Dropped to 35 here overnight, and noticed a lot of frost in the open fields on the way to work.  Looks like we finally get some decent spring weather this week.  It's the first long stretch of 80' since February (here in east TN). 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on April 30, 2018, 10:31:09 AM
I imagine the serious and career storm chasers will be out in OK and KS on Wednesday. Really, it's a multi-day event starting with some slight risk areas in the western Plains today... KS/NE/IA with some enhanced risk tomorrow... and the large enhanced risk (including a hatched area) covering much of KS and OK on Wednesday, which looks like the big day.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Eric on April 30, 2018, 10:51:54 AM
I imagine the serious and career storm chasers will be out in OK and KS on Wednesday. Really, it's a multi-day event starting with some slight risk areas in the western Plains today... KS/NE/IA with some enhanced risk tomorrow... and the large enhanced risk (including a hatched area) covering much of KS and OK on Wednesday, which looks like the big day.

Pretty potent setup, it appears.  I haven't looked at the first morsel of data (trying to strike a tenuous balance of work, life, school, baseball) but the SPC disco hints at potential nocturnal supercell initiation and development across OK/KS.  Going to be a great few days of radar watching.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on April 30, 2018, 11:32:01 AM
(trying to strike a tenuous balance of work, life, school, baseball)

I hear ya- I guess we're at the age, when "disposable time" isn't quite as available as it once was.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Coach B on April 30, 2018, 11:48:56 AM
I hear ya- I guess we're at the age, when "disposable time" isn't quite as available as it once was.

What is this disposable time of which you speak? I can't seem to do anything that I used to. I have these distant memories of turkey hunting, fishing, and hanging out with my wife in the spring. Baseball is wearing me out. I've also discovered whoever called it hobby farming must not have been raising a family and working full time while trying to "hobby" farm.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Crockett on April 30, 2018, 01:02:51 PM
What is this disposable time of which you speak? I can't seem to do anything that I used to. I have these distant memories of turkey hunting, fishing, and hanging out with my wife in the spring. Baseball is wearing me out. I've also discovered whoever called it hobby farming must not have been raising a family and working full time while trying to "hobby" farm.

Turkey hunting...fishing. Ahhhh, the fond memories of hobbies long forgotten. :(
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2018, 02:38:05 PM
Seems the cap maybe be bit stronger than first thought for wed... but when n where it does break... big problems central Oklahoma ... towards evening wed
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: WXHD on April 30, 2018, 06:29:53 PM
Sitting at 79.4F. Overshot out forecast by a few degrees. A beautiful day for sure!
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on May 01, 2018, 07:09:08 AM
Dropped down into the lower 40's this morning.  Finally frost free. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2018, 07:30:27 AM
Dropped down into the lower 40's this morning.  Finally frost free.
yeah. What a crappy spring itís been..finally see light ...winter better b   delayed to make up for this crap... and when it does arrive. Hopefully itís stay be short lived ... Iím ready for the summer now... bring on the humidity n heat please
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on May 01, 2018, 09:45:26 AM
Dewpoints are finally creeping up to near 50 after being in the lower 30's for the last few days.  Still very comfortable for this time of the year, though. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2018, 12:07:45 PM
Spc. Upgraded moderate risk today for upper plains... hail driiven...
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Eric on May 01, 2018, 12:36:13 PM
Spc. Upgraded moderate risk today for upper plains... hail driiven...

With robust SIGTOR possibilities.  Let's not forget that.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Charles L. on May 01, 2018, 12:56:14 PM
With robust SIGTOR possibilities.  Let's not forget that.

Oh itís Bruce...he didnít forget.  ;)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Crockett on May 01, 2018, 01:57:01 PM
I just have to say one thing: This weather rocks.  ::applause::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on May 01, 2018, 04:43:17 PM
With the recent cold nights, the house is still comfortable, and we haven't yet had to turn on the AC. I have a feeling that will be changing on the next couple of days.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on May 01, 2018, 04:52:12 PM
With this heat and no real rains in the forecast for awhile and its already been drying off a little. I think we might have some abnormal drought showing up for the top soil level soon. I think the deeper grounds are plenty wet from as wet as we was earlier in the year. So trees should be fine all year drought or not. But the top soil will dry really fast with mid 80s.. Maybe theres rain coming way in the future but I dont see no forecast for any anytime soon (minus this weekends .25 that wont even matter).
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: WXHD on May 01, 2018, 06:15:34 PM
With the recent cold nights, the house is still comfortable, and we haven't yet had to turn on the AC. I have a feeling that will be changing on the next couple of days.

Maybe I should start selling these. This is my Nest history for the past 10 days.

Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: harlequin on May 01, 2018, 08:13:19 PM
With this heat and no real rains in the forecast for awhile and its already been drying off a little. I think we might have some abnormal drought showing up for the top soil level soon. I think the deeper grounds are plenty wet from as wet as we was earlier in the year. So trees should be fine all year drought or not. But the top soil will dry really fast with mid 80s.. Maybe theres rain coming way in the future but I dont see no forecast for any anytime soon (minus this weekends .25 that wont even matter).

That's not necessarily a bad thing. My Dad is just now starting to plant in the MS Delta. He's behind.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on May 02, 2018, 07:30:43 AM
With this heat and no real rains in the forecast for awhile and its already been drying off a little. I think we might have some abnormal drought showing up for the top soil level soon. I think the deeper grounds are plenty wet from as wet as we was earlier in the year. So trees should be fine all year drought or not. But the top soil will dry really fast with mid 80s.. Maybe theres rain coming way in the future but I dont see no forecast for any anytime soon (minus this weekends .25 that wont even matter).

It would take more than a week of dry weather to see drought appear after the soaking rains of late.  Some dry time is important to farmers this time of the year--they can't plow and work the soil when it's saturated.  That's why many farmers are behind this year.  Between the constant freezes and rains, they haven't been able to get anything in the ground.

Having said that, I wouldn't mind a more typical late spring pattern of sunshine with the daily 30-40% chance of storms.  I enjoy watching the cumulus build into the afternoon leading to an evening thundershower.  I have yet to even see a cloud in the sky since Sunday (beside a few cirrus wisps here and there). 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on May 02, 2018, 12:29:59 PM
It would take more than a week of dry weather to see drought appear after the soaking rains of late.  Some dry time is important to farmers this time of the year--they can't plow and work the soil when it's saturated.  That's why many farmers are behind this year.  Between the constant freezes and rains, they haven't been able to get anything in the ground.

Having said that, I wouldn't mind a more typical late spring pattern of sunshine with the daily 30-40% chance of storms.  I enjoy watching the cumulus build into the afternoon leading to an evening thundershower.  I have yet to even see a cloud in the sky since Sunday (beside a few cirrus wisps here and there).
I will agree with you about the farmers for sure. And i like summertime/spring time afternoon storms as well (thats really all we get that i like in the summer besides the outside derachio stuff but that happens usually later) anyways where i live we have missed a lot of the rains the past week or so outside looking in type deal. And then we have all this week and next week as well in the upper 70s low 80s and that will dry the ground off really fast with mays sun angle. Ponds creeks ect shouldn't be a problem and trees as well but like grass will be in a few weeks if we dont get no rains. And that sets us up for a bad start to our dry hot summer imo. Things can always turn around and like you said its way to early really to worry. Just mentioning it is all.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on May 02, 2018, 12:49:05 PM
Today is first day in a while start to feel
Some humidity ... finally getting my kind of weather ...
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on May 02, 2018, 01:52:47 PM
Dewpoints have crept into the lower 50's here, but I only see three extremely small cumulus clouds on the western horizon.  Otherwise, another mostly clear day. 

Post Merge: May 02, 2018, 02:42:35 PM
Could be some rumbles around on Saturday per MRX:

Quote
On Saturday, troughing to our west continues to deepen to our west
bringing a more southerly flow of moisture into the area. As a
surface low moves northeastward along the cold front, convection is
expected to develop across the forecast area. The NAM and GFS both
show sufficient instability for thunderstorms as well as moderate 35
to 45 kt deep layer shear. With steep mid-level lapse rates and a
dry layer between 700mb and 500 mb, forecast soundings show at least
a low potential for some strong thunderstorms capable of damaging
wind gusts and hail. Low-level shear is very low, 0 to 1 km shear
less than 10 kt, which would limit a tornado threat. There is
currently high uncertainty in regard to how much instability will be
present on Saturday, but it at least bears watching.

Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on May 02, 2018, 06:41:02 PM
Some parts of the northeastern corridor pushed well into the 90s today. After a below normal April, that's pretty early for the 90 mark.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: WXHD on May 02, 2018, 08:05:34 PM
In full disclosure and part of my duty as someone who has nothing to do with company. Last night we had to turn on the a/c.  Beautiful weather all the same.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: tnwthrwtchr on May 02, 2018, 08:26:00 PM
87 forecast for me tomorrow.  I'm liking the warmer weather but nearly 90s this early I don't like.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: WXHD on May 02, 2018, 09:14:46 PM
87 forecast for me tomorrow.  I'm liking the warmer weather but nearly 90s this early I don't like.

tnwthrwtchr, IF that is your real name, you should put your location in your profile so people know your whereabouts.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on May 04, 2018, 09:27:14 AM
How in the **** do we go from having around .20 inches of total rain forecasted all week over the next day and a half to nearly 1.5 inches forecasted the day of event. I donít understand how the forecasting can be that bad.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on May 04, 2018, 09:45:36 AM
How in the **** do we go from having around .20 inches of total rain forecasted all week over the next day and a half to nearly 1.5 inches forecasted the day of event. I donít understand how the forecasting can be that bad.
Yeah I noticed that too. I guess because as we got closer they noticed more of a convection aspect that wasn't really there on the models? But still you would of thought that the models could pick that up this day and age.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Eric on May 04, 2018, 11:18:44 AM
How in the **** do we go from having around .20 inches of total rain forecasted all week over the next day and a half to nearly 1.5 inches forecasted the day of event. I donít understand how the forecasting can be that bad.

All about the PWATs.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on May 04, 2018, 11:56:28 AM
Yeah I noticed that too. I guess because as we got closer they noticed more of a convection aspect that wasn't really there on the models? But still you would of thought that the models could pick that up this day and age.
models really donít do great job on handling mcs till short range ... MEGS. Add this morning hint on that ... as we approach mcs. Season
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on May 04, 2018, 01:17:46 PM
Dewpoints finally crept above 60 for the first time in quite awhile this afternoon. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on May 04, 2018, 03:41:12 PM
Hrrr has changed a lot today but its now showing a break and then later tonight we really ramp up with rain/storms and HPC has us now getting 2 inchs in spots.. Lol who knows at this point.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: mamMATTus on May 05, 2018, 02:20:32 PM
Has severe season passed is by at this point? Donít really see anything in the long range.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on May 05, 2018, 02:35:09 PM
We look above to well above average in the long range. Way too warm for any severe weather at our latitude. This might make for a strong severe pattern in the Upper Midwest instead.

I think we are out of the woods.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Eric on May 05, 2018, 09:20:14 PM
Has severe season passed is by at this point? Donít really see anything in the long range.

Best not let Bruce hear you say that.  He may want to fight ya.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on May 06, 2018, 05:45:26 AM
Best not let Bruce hear you say that.  He may want to fight ya.
lol... I am over it now... yeah the jet stream moving fairly north of us now....  what is severe weather season anymore? Lol....
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on May 06, 2018, 06:45:29 AM
Noticed that 20 pct pops had been added for a thunderstorm chance this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.

OHX had this in their AFD:

Quote
Off the Atlantic seaboard, a big blocking high
pressure system is keeping that upper trough over the eastern U.S.
Because of this, we are likely to see some of the effects of a
shortwave trough rounding the backside of the larger pattern.  This
wave is expected to bring a few showers and maybe even some
thunderstorms into Middle TN late this afternoon and into the
evening hours.  Forecast soundings are showing plenty of surface
based CAPE and dry air aloft, but being on the backside of this
trough, shear is greatly lacking.  Organization should be minimal,
but I can`t rule out a strong storm or two as storms push in from
the north. Keep this in mind if you`re going to be out and about
late this afternoon.  Main concerns will be gusty winds and possibly
some small hail as mid-level lapse rates are decent. Monday could
bring another shot at the same, with better chances south of I-40
and closer to the Alabama state line. While the upper trough
hangs around the east coast Tuesday as that blocking high hold
firm, it should be far enough away where we stay dry.




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Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on May 06, 2018, 01:35:58 PM
Had a decent thunderstorm in the middle of the night dropping about a half inch of rain.  Finally washed a lot of the green pollen residue off of everything.  Now it's a perfect Sunday afternoon with blue skies and comfortable 70's with a breeze. 

Spring severe may be passed, but don't discount MCS/MCC "season"nearly upon us.  June-July can be pretty active depending on where the summer time heat ridge sets up over the U.S.   

https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MCC (https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MCC)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on May 06, 2018, 02:56:37 PM
SVRs are popping over western KY- cells moving SE


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Title: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on May 06, 2018, 04:19:22 PM
Pretty good coverage of storms in NW Mid TN now. Lightning map is, well, lighting up... I think a good number may see some rumbles and downpours between now and into the evening.


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Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on May 06, 2018, 04:43:12 PM
Outside looking in yet again for me. I miss the old spring type weather its like a summer time pattern right now with spring temps.
Title: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on May 06, 2018, 04:45:58 PM
This activity has congealed into a pretty good line of storms encroaching the I-40 corridor toward Nashville.

A few pop up cells out ahead of it too.

Cells near Fairview might contain hail


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Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on May 06, 2018, 06:23:55 PM
NOAA's April summary for Knoxville:

Quote
000
CXUS54 KMRX 011501
CLMTYS


CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1100 AM EDT TUE MAY 1 2018

...................................

...THE KNOXVILLE    ASOS CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL 2018...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1871 TO 2018

WEATHER         OBSERVED          NORMAL  DEPART
                 VALUE   DATE(S)  VALUE   FROM
                                          NORMAL
............................................ ....
TEMPERATURE (F)
HIGHEST            81   04/14
                        04/13
LOWEST             31   04/08
AVG. MAXIMUM     67.2              70.3    -3.1
AVG. MINIMUM     43.9              47.3    -3.4
MEAN             55.5              58.8    -3.3

DAYS MAX >= 90      0
DAYS MAX <= 32      0
DAYS MIN <= 32      2
DAYS MIN <= 0       0

PRECIPITATION (INCHES)
RECORD
 MAXIMUM        17.62   1874
 MINIMUM         0.39   1976
TOTALS           4.28              4.01    0.27
DAYS >= .01        13
DAYS >= .10         7
DAYS >= .50         4
DAYS >= 1.00        0
GREATEST
 24 HR. TOTAL    0.84   04/15 TO 04/15

SNOWFALL (INCHES)
TOTALS              T               0.5    -0.5
SINCE 7/1         2.6
SNOWDEPTH AVG.      0
DAYS >= TRACE       1
GREATEST
 SNOW DEPTH         0   MM

DEGREE_DAYS
HEATING TOTAL     288               218      70
 SINCE 7/1       3526              3575     -49
COOLING TOTAL      12                32     -20
 SINCE 1/1         34                37      -3
............................................ .....



-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on May 08, 2018, 01:52:28 PM
I see that in typical TN fashion, winter held on for 1.5 months too long, we had 2 weeks of spring, and now it is summer. GFS calling for 95 at KCHA next Monday. Ugh.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on May 08, 2018, 02:31:51 PM
I see that in typical TN fashion, winter held on for 1.5 months too long, we had 2 weeks of spring, and now it is summer. GFS calling for 95 at KCHA next Monday. Ugh.
yeah finally warmer weather  ...
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: mempho on May 09, 2018, 04:22:53 PM
yeah finally warmer weather  ...

Be careful what you wish for....
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on May 09, 2018, 08:00:57 PM
GFS is showing the season's first tropical system in the Gulf around May 20.  Skipped over tornado season to go straight into hurricane season. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: harlequin on May 09, 2018, 09:40:58 PM
KMEM holding onto 80 through the 9 o'clock hour.  ::shaking_finger::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on May 10, 2018, 05:49:03 AM
KMEM holding onto 80 through the 9 o'clock hour.  ::shaking_finger::

Welcome to the dog days in May.

(https://mbadnjar.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/summertime-is-here.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on May 10, 2018, 06:32:10 AM
Thunderstorms moving through here this morning... didnít expect that.


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Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on May 10, 2018, 07:56:52 AM
Looks like the current line of storms dissipates as it moves east, but a new line of strong storms re-ignites over east TN later this afternoon. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: SKEW-TIM on May 10, 2018, 09:30:25 AM
Looks like the current line of storms dissipates as it moves east, but a new line of strong storms re-ignites over east TN later this afternoon. 
Things look to develop into a MCS Hail producer for us in WNC today....
 between 3-5-

Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on May 10, 2018, 09:47:10 AM
Looks like the current line of storms dissipates as it moves east, but a new line of strong storms re-ignites over east TN later this afternoon.

Gotta love afternoon heat and humidity working on outflow boundaries.

Post Merge: May 10, 2018, 09:57:14 AM
Confession- I am just as fascinated by a pop-up storm pattern as I am any large scale synoptic setup for winter or severe weather. There's something about the capricious, hard-to-predict nature of these storms that fire up in the humidity, instability, and nuanced features at play in the atmosphere. It's like a game of Russian Roulette- you never know who's going to get one of these storms.

Plus- popup afternoon thunderstorms seem to conjure up fond memories of summer.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: cgauxknox on May 10, 2018, 03:29:10 PM
Plus- popup afternoon thunderstorms seem to conjure up fond memories of summer.
It was definitely a summer feel with the showers and bit of thunder that came through Knoxville earlier.  I'm fighting hard to actually work tomorrow instead of driving east until I find saltwater.  ::yum::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on May 10, 2018, 04:04:35 PM
Looks like a run of 90s from tomorrow into the first part of next week.


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Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on May 10, 2018, 05:34:12 PM
Gotta love afternoon heat and humidity working on outflow boundaries.

Post Merge: May 10, 2018, 09:57:14 AM
Confession- I am just as fascinated by a pop-up storm pattern as I am any large scale synoptic setup for winter or severe weather. There's something about the capricious, hard-to-predict nature of these storms that fire up in the humidity, instability, and nuanced features at play in the atmosphere. It's like a game of Russian Roulette- you never know who's going to get one of these storms.

Plus- popup afternoon thunderstorms seem to conjure up fond memories of summer.

Agree with you there.  I enjoy watching the cumulus erupt in the late afternoon heat, and hearing the distant growl of thunder afar off, signaling a storm has developed.  I can even tolerate the heat and humidity of mid-summer if it ends with a good hour long thundershow at day's end.  The distant thunder, the darkening skies as the hot air gives way to much cooler breezes, then intense downpours of rain that can only come from convection.  The single cell thunderstorm--one of nature's best shows around.   

Post Merge: May 10, 2018, 06:28:00 PM
Most living near cities with the artificial lighting can't enjoy it, but one of my favorite things to do as a kid was to watch the "heat" lightning late at night as storms very far off approached.  It's not sheet lightning, that is clearly discernable as lighting hidden by clouds or flashing close by.  Heat lightning is barely a flicker of light that seems to come from all around, and can only be seen on a moonless light, and without the light pollution near cities.  Growing up in the 80's in eastern KY, we had the pleasure of enjoying true darkness at night, and one of my favorite pastimes when I knew storms were going to approach overnight was to stay up late and watch the thunder-less flickering of heat lightning in the deep night.  It would sometimes continue for an hour or two until, as the storm neared, the first distant faint rumbles were heard.  Then the heat lightning would become "sheet" lightning along the western horizon--clearly coming from the storm--and the thunder would grow ever louder.  Yeah, it would probably be as boring as watching grass grow for today's generation that has 1001 distractions to keep the mind occupied, but for a young country boy with no video games, I-Phone, or internet, it was fascinating. 

When I think of what I would have to give up to be young again--losing the memories of true country living in the 80's, I'll gladly stay old.  Those memories were the best of my life.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: wfrogge on May 11, 2018, 12:12:51 PM
Say heat lighting one more time.......(https://pmcvariety.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/pulpfiction_new.jpg?w=1000&h=563&crop=1)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on May 11, 2018, 02:33:17 PM
Agree with you there.  I enjoy watching the cumulus erupt in the late afternoon heat, and hearing the distant growl of thunder afar off, signaling a storm has developed.  I can even tolerate the heat and humidity of mid-summer if it ends with a good hour long thundershow at day's end.  The distant thunder, the darkening skies as the hot air gives way to much cooler breezes, then intense downpours of rain that can only come from convection.  The single cell thunderstorm--one of nature's best shows around.   

Post Merge: May 10, 2018, 06:28:00 PM
Most living near cities with the artificial lighting can't enjoy it, but one of my favorite things to do as a kid was to watch the "heat" lightning late at night as storms very far off approached.  It's not sheet lightning, that is clearly discernable as lighting hidden by clouds or flashing close by.  Heat lightning is barely a flicker of light that seems to come from all around, and can only be seen on a moonless light, and without the light pollution near cities.  Growing up in the 80's in eastern KY, we had the pleasure of enjoying true darkness at night, and one of my favorite pastimes when I knew storms were going to approach overnight was to stay up late and watch the thunder-less flickering of heat lightning in the deep night.  It would sometimes continue for an hour or two until, as the storm neared, the first distant faint rumbles were heard.  Then the heat lightning would become "sheet" lightning along the western horizon--clearly coming from the storm--and the thunder would grow ever louder.  Yeah, it would probably be as boring as watching grass grow for today's generation that has 1001 distractions to keep the mind occupied, but for a young country boy with no video games, I-Phone, or internet, it was fascinating. 

When I think of what I would have to give up to be young again--losing the memories of true country living in the 80's, I'll gladly stay old.  Those memories were the best of my life.
you can always stay young.... young at heart ....
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on May 12, 2018, 04:34:38 PM
So the storms we are going to get later this week are they more like the afternoon spring time storms or is there more to it? Im guessing based on the HPC's rainfall that the storm near florida will help push moisture our way so maybe thats why we will be getting springtime storms or maybe theres another system coming in.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: WXHD on May 12, 2018, 05:22:42 PM
So the storms we are going to get later this week are they more like the afternoon spring time storms or is there more to it? Im guessing based on the HPC's rainfall that the storm near florida will help push moisture our way so maybe thats why we will be getting springtime storms or maybe theres another system coming in.

I'm seeing 40-50% chance most days, so I think it's afternoon pop ups. I've not looked at the models though.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on May 12, 2018, 07:57:04 PM
I just hope I get to see some. . .

           HEAT Lightnin!!  >:D
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Crockett on May 13, 2018, 07:24:08 PM
It looks like the next couple of weeks could be potentially wet. The GFS is consistently showing 5-6 inches of rain through Memorial Day (most of it convective, so we'll see just how accurate that turns out to be). A little rain and some relief from the heat will certainly be welcomed, though I hope we don't see another wet and cool pattern develop and outstay its welcome.

I never thought I'd say it but the heat of the last two days was almost ridiculous for this early in the season. It's been plumb scorching!
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on May 13, 2018, 10:27:57 PM
It looks like the next couple of weeks could be potentially wet. The GFS is consistently showing 5-6 inches of rain through Memorial Day (most of it convective, so we'll see just how accurate that turns out to be). A little rain and some relief from the heat will certainly be welcomed, though I hope we don't see another wet and cool pattern develop and outstay its welcome.

I never thought I'd say it but the heat of the last two days was almost ridiculous for this early in the season. It's been plumb scorching!
come on bro.  Already complaining bout heat ... not even summer yet either....
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 14, 2018, 07:16:11 AM
come on bro.  Already complaining bout heat ... not even summer yet either....
If you can complain about cold in April we can complain about heat in May. Going from winter to summer sucks.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on May 14, 2018, 08:24:04 AM
If you can complain about cold in April we can complain about heat in May. Going from winter to summer sucks.
yeah. But heat is expected in Tennessee...
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Crockett on May 14, 2018, 09:32:38 AM
come on bro.  Already complaining bout heat ... not even summer yet either....

First of all, I'm not complaining. I enjoy hot weather...to an extent. Day after day of hot and dry weather that bakes everything to a crisp isn't my idea of fun.

Secondly, it's the weather. Complaining about it is what we do.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on May 14, 2018, 10:19:48 AM
First of all, I'm not complaining. I enjoy hot weather...to an extent. Day after day of hot and dry weather that bakes everything to a crisp isn't my idea of fun.

Secondly, it's the weather. Complaining about it is what we do.
agree with you bro 100.  Just messing with you
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on May 14, 2018, 10:30:44 AM
Whoever came up with Tennessee's weather for 2018 must have been on crack
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Nashville_Wx on May 14, 2018, 07:39:28 PM
Winter is coming soon!
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: harlequin on May 14, 2018, 07:46:38 PM
Quote
http://All climate sites broke or tied record high temps today..
Memphis: 93 degrees, previous record 91 in 1988
Jackson, TN: 92 degrees, ties previous record of 92 in 1962
Jonesboro: 95 degrees, previous record of 94 in 1915
Tupelo: 93 degrees, previous record of 90 in 1998

Clean sweep today.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: mempho on May 14, 2018, 09:12:46 PM
It looks like the next couple of weeks could be potentially wet. The GFS is consistently showing 5-6 inches of rain through Memorial Day (most of it convective, so we'll see just how accurate that turns out to be). A little rain and some relief from the heat will certainly be welcomed, though I hope we don't see another wet and cool pattern develop and outstay its welcome.



So, you prefer the heat?  I'm already done with it.  Sadly, it's the middle of May and I'm ready for summer to be over.  That's a record, even for me.



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Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: mempho on May 14, 2018, 09:18:19 PM
yeah. But heat is expected in Tennessee...
We hate the heat, Bruce.  You complained all winter-  we will complain all summer if that's what we want to do.  Heres the deal, we have mild winters and very hot summers here, so to gripe about heat more than cold is actually a very normal response. 

I never forget about how bad summer is here, so I've resolved to never gripe about cold in April.  I'll take the cold as long as it lasts.

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Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Drifter49 on May 14, 2018, 09:30:55 PM
Winter is coming soon!

Start the thread!


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Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: mempho on May 14, 2018, 09:34:44 PM
Start the thread!


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In b4 "grand solar minimum" is mentioned!

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Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: mempho on May 14, 2018, 09:36:28 PM
Clean sweep today.
Hopefully, we're taking the heat bullet early this time and just getting it out of the way.

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Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 14, 2018, 11:34:42 PM
yeah. But heat is expected in Tennessee...
Sure it is but being 10 to 12 degrees above normal for days  in May is unacceptable.
After a very wet period, we have only had .50 for the month so far in Dyersburg.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on May 15, 2018, 12:14:46 AM
May in February, January in March, February in April, August in May. 2018 has been interesting so far. Maybe if this volcanic activity in Hawai'i shoots enough ash into the atmosphere, we could have December in June.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: cgauxknox on May 15, 2018, 08:12:20 AM
May in February, January in March, February in April, August in May. 2018 has been interesting so far. Maybe if this volcanic activity in Hawai'i shoots enough ash into the atmosphere, we could have December in June.
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on May 15, 2018, 02:41:47 PM
Looks like America found where Tornado Alley went:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/05/15/today-severe-thunderstorms-will-bring-heavy-winds-rain-and-possibly-tornado/FKQ5Kq6y8gW3PJ3IDMDu5I/story.html
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on May 15, 2018, 09:09:57 PM
I can see the lightning from around Cookeville storms at my house lol. Thats heat lightning for you!
Looking forward to this weeks spring storms. Here to getting missed by every single one all week. :)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Nashville_Wx on May 15, 2018, 10:42:04 PM
Since when does lighting go into heat? I thought that was just cats.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: SKEW-TIM on May 16, 2018, 11:25:39 AM
Lots of rain here in WNC ... Little on edge.. Always get a little nervous after dealing with NASHVILLE 2010 PSTD..  lol

Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: harlequin on May 16, 2018, 09:50:21 PM
An early start to popcorn season.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on May 17, 2018, 08:05:45 AM
Some big winners and losers over on the east side in the current pattern.  East Knox Co has seen 2-3" while western Knox has yet to receive a drop.  I had about .85" in a very isolated downpour two nights ago, but nothing since.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/21a09xt.gif)
Title: Spring 2018
Post by: Curt on May 17, 2018, 04:35:54 PM
The Bartlett to Lakeland area of Shelby Co needs a FFW big time

Edit needed - past tense oh well
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: harlequin on May 17, 2018, 07:31:14 PM
The Bartlett to Lakeland area of Shelby Co needs a FFW big time

Edit needed - past tense oh well

My neighborhood got 2-3"+ today. I don't think Mud Island got more than a trace. They're less than 4 miles apart.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 18, 2018, 07:16:55 AM
Some areas got a toad strangler. Meanwhile at my house it has rain .10 all week.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: cgauxknox on May 18, 2018, 10:02:42 AM
The game this week seems to be that we go to bed and wake up to promises of heavy thunderstorms and lots of rain but then by mid-morning they drop the predicted chances from 80% to 40% and we ultimately end up with nothing.  I understand that storms this time of year are hit and miss, but why have we had so many consecutive days of the crazy forecast swings?  Is there something weird that's confusing the short-term models right now?  ::shrug::
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on May 18, 2018, 12:54:52 PM
The game this week seems to be that we go to bed and wake up to promises of heavy thunderstorms and lots of rain but then by mid-morning they drop the predicted chances from 80% to 40% and we ultimately end up with nothing.  I understand that storms this time of year are hit and miss, but why have we had so many consecutive days of the crazy forecast swings?  Is there something weird that's confusing the short-term models right now?  ::shrug::
Probably the volcano changing our climate as we speak so the models have to be adjusted. haha
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: cgauxknox on May 18, 2018, 02:30:38 PM
Probably the volcano changing our climate as we speak so the models have to be adjusted. haha
Don't you mean the Volcanologist's Vortex?  Or is it the Pacific Magmal Maximum?  Just wait, some network news type will come up with a name and start making entirely incorrect claims!  ::rofl::

Post Merge: May 18, 2018, 04:35:57 PM
First severe thunderstorm warning I've seen this season is now up for Knox.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on May 18, 2018, 09:15:43 PM
Three month outlook for June-Aug says little chance for drought this summer.




(http://i64.tinypic.com/ekgwwk.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: SKEW-TIM on May 19, 2018, 10:40:15 AM
So last night here in WNC was very scary. Very reminiscent of the 2010 flooding when I was back in Nashville.  We had very hard and heavy downpours for several hours.

We 've had constant rain over the last week and even experienced some flooding earlier in the week,

Last night in Henderson,Polk and McDowell Counties there was major flooding.   
I 26 was closed in both directions near the SC line at Saluda Grade due to 5 ft of water standing on the roadway..Also HWY 25 in to SC was closed as well.
Both were reopened this morning

Hwy 176 in the Saluda Community is now gone.. Completely washed away and it will be weeks before it is open again.  Landslides occurred and there was even a fatality when someone was washed away with their entire house.  And POLK Co. is still currently under a state of Emergency.

We are expecting more rain over the next fews day.. I can't recall a time when we have experienced flooding this bad in WNC..       



(http://i63.tinypic.com/207u92f.jpg)


(http://i66.tinypic.com/jj605h.jpg)

http://wlos.com/news/local/mudslides-close-roads-trap-resident-in-polk-county

Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on May 19, 2018, 01:12:53 PM
WNC had a prolonged period of upslope southeasterly winds bringing in tons of moisture from the Gulf/Atlantic.  The mountains kept wringing out the moisture causing crazy amounts of rain.  On the "drier" side of the mountains, I was still able to receive over 2 inches of rain this week.  The "wetter" side in North Carolina was seeing that much almost on a daily basis, especially in the favored upslope areas. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: harlequin on May 19, 2018, 01:44:26 PM
Is that common in WNC?

Lots of small hail reports across northeast Memphis burbs early this afternoon.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on May 19, 2018, 04:22:19 PM
Is that common in WNC?

Lots of small hail reports across northeast Memphis burbs early this afternoon.

If you like rain, the part of WNC where the elevation rises from the low peidmont further southeast, gets plenty of it when there is a south or southeast upslope flow around a low pressure over the TN valley (like we just had).  I get the reversal of it--a downslope flow, which usually means drier, but I still got a good soaking this past week, but not nearly as much as the other side of the mountains. 

Today turned out to be a beautiful day after an early afternoon downpour.  Clear, blue skies this afternoon, and a decent breeze to keep it comfortable.  Not too shabby.


Post Merge: May 19, 2018, 05:00:32 PM
Looks like most of the action is in western TN this evening. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on May 19, 2018, 05:27:05 PM
Its crazy how much rain north of memphis has been getting this week. Like 10+ inchs in some spots. Wow. That one storm is just stalled out there
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: dwagner88 on May 19, 2018, 05:43:52 PM
Taking a short vacation this weekend to NC. Iím in Charlotte now, and will be going to Asheville tomorrow. Weather has been decent here. Not too much rain. Looks like the western NC mountains have really been hammered with 4-8Ē of rain.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: WXHD on May 19, 2018, 08:06:51 PM
The mass is heading here. My neighbors are having an outdoor party. I've got the giggles.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on May 19, 2018, 08:31:31 PM
The mass is heading here. My neighbors are having an outdoor party. I've got the giggles.
neighbors having a party and its outside... and you have the giggles... sounds like to me the wind must be blowing in from your neighbors.... >:D
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: WXHD on May 19, 2018, 08:33:41 PM
neighbors having a party and its outside... and you have the giggles... sounds like to me the wind must be blowing in from your neighbors.... >:D

They're good neighbors but not that good!
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on May 20, 2018, 12:35:53 PM
HRRR is so wrong today. Like i was like why is there a watch out for west tn Hrrr didnt show nothing over there and now you can see like a line trying to form (guessing why theres a watch). But hrrr still doesn't even show nothing lol
Edit. Now the hrrr is showing the storms. Each 1hr update it changes so much lol
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: BRUCE on May 20, 2018, 01:20:31 PM
HRRR is so wrong today. Like i was like why is there a watch out for west tn Hrrr didnt show nothing over there and now you can see like a line trying to form (guessing why theres a watch). But hrrr still doesn't even show nothing lol
Edit. Now the hrrr is showing the storms. Each 1hr update it changes so much lol
summer time... thats way it is... hard to predict pop up stuff... as we speak... there is a tornado warning for lawrence co    east ark.  radar indicated small rotation with the cell....
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 20, 2018, 04:54:01 PM
It is fun to watch these storms explode on the outflow boundaries. Just had a boundary roll in from the east and  as it met the broken line coming in from Arkansas it blew up right over Dyer County. Finally got a good rain at my house.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: snowdog on May 20, 2018, 05:12:35 PM
It is fun to watch these storms explode on the outflow boundaries. Just had a boundary roll in from the east and  as it met the broken line coming in from Arkansas it blew up right over Dyer County. Finally got a good rain at my house.

Was hoping to see one at my house today, after watching one just to my West blow up over BNA. Yet, same thing today. The wait continues....lol.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on May 20, 2018, 05:30:29 PM
Was hoping to see one at my house today, after watching one just to my West blow up over BNA. Yet, same thing today. The wait continues....lol.
Same here only got 1 rain shower in the past nearly 2 weeks and it dropped maybe .25
im so mad seeing all these storms all around me every day. When can i get lucky and get a storm over me every day lol :(
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: WXHD on May 20, 2018, 05:55:34 PM
1.69" in the last 30mins. We needed it but that's a lot of runoff.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on May 20, 2018, 07:30:45 PM
Well the rains inching to me now but its much lighter and its falling apart very soon as its almost night. I guess anythings better then nothing.
wow check out the latest hrrr. it has the stuff in western mid tn blowing up like crazy.. wow (different every hour btw but still)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on May 21, 2018, 12:02:28 PM
Interesting read from ALWX.  Thought I'd share. . .

https://www.alabamawx.com/?p=160727 (https://www.alabamawx.com/?p=160727)

Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on May 21, 2018, 06:18:42 PM
From the latest NOAA report, there is a 20% chance of a tropical storm developing in the Caribbean later this week that will make its way toward Florida. If it materializes, this provides a glimpse at an active hurricane season, which was predicted in April.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Storm Central on May 21, 2018, 10:40:09 PM
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png)
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: mempho on May 22, 2018, 04:34:09 AM
(Attachment Link)
A few years ago in May-  it was in in the 30s in the afternoon in Memphis. I remember thinking how insane they was.

I remember that storm produced a couple of inches of snow in Arkansas - the only May snow in Arkansas ever recorded. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on May 22, 2018, 02:00:37 PM
The region looks like it has a rash on composite radar. Lots of scattered popups.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on May 22, 2018, 03:23:28 PM
A few years ago in May-  it was in in the 30s in the afternoon in Memphis. I remember thinking how insane they was.

I remember that storm produced a couple of inches of snow in Arkansas - the only May snow in Arkansas ever recorded. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Yep, that was 2013. NW Arkansas received more snow that day than most towns in Tennessee did during the winter of 2017-18
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on May 22, 2018, 05:27:05 PM
Lovely storms coming my way. In before and outflow kills them and they refire south of me. :) watch i see the future
haha told you so sad every day same story storms just dont want to make it to my house.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: cbrentv318 on May 22, 2018, 06:46:28 PM
Lovely storms coming my way. In before and outflow kills them and they refire south of me. :) watch i see the future
haha told you so sad every day same story storms just dont want to make it to my house.
Same thing here in Christiana TN.  Canít buy rain.  .30 for the last week


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: JayCee on May 23, 2018, 07:23:12 AM
Yep, that was 2013. NW Arkansas received more snow that day than most towns in Tennessee did during the winter of 2017-18

That was one of the coolest & wettest summers I've seen in Tennessee since moving here in 2003.  Sunny days were few and far between, and 90+ days were rare.  I had no luck with my garden that year for that reason--not enough sunlight.  Most of my tomato plants rotted in the ground.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: StormNine on May 23, 2018, 03:12:40 PM
Quote
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:     15%     - Slight
   Hail:     15%     - Slight

If you look at the bottom of a Day 2 outlook this now appears.  This tells you the maximum risk by hazard and now provides insight into what the SPC is thinking before the Day 1 outlook.  I know we really haven't had any reason to look at that since our severe weather season this year began and ended on February 24th, but that is something for future reference. 
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: harlequin on May 24, 2018, 02:38:02 PM
Small hail at my office off Bill Morris in today's pop-up.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Skillsweather on May 25, 2018, 03:51:10 PM
I really hate OHX's new forecast map. It shows only temperatures like we know its hot its un useful. Please OHX change back to the other one it was at least more people friendly to get both the temp and other forecast in 1 glance.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on May 26, 2018, 06:59:17 AM
A category 3 cyclone will make landfall in Oman and eastern Yemen on the Arabian peninsula. This is the first such landfall since the satellite era of meteorology.
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: Thundersnow on May 26, 2018, 10:41:32 AM
A category 3 cyclone will make landfall in Oman and eastern Yemen on the Arabian peninsula. This is the first such landfall since the satellite era of meteorology.

Interesting.

Looks like it's already on shore.

http://www.intellicast.com/global/satellite/infrared.aspx?region=himideast&animate=true
Title: Re: Spring 2018
Post by: schneitzeit on May 26, 2018, 11:28:22 AM
It's dry and dusty out. Feels like late August and early September. I hope the models are correct about the statewide deluge after Memorial Day. We very much need a soaker. I've enjoyed the abundant sunshine and isolated thunderstorms, but I'm less keen when vegetation gets parched too early in the year.