Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Winter Weather => Topic started by: Susan on January 13, 2018, 03:58:05 PM

Title: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Susan on January 13, 2018, 03:58:05 PM
I have faith.

 ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: snowdog on January 13, 2018, 04:04:45 PM
A Honeymoon storm, quick, brief and leave you wanting more...   ::whistling::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 13, 2018, 04:11:29 PM
Boo 18Z GFS!  Boo!
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 13, 2018, 04:22:34 PM
 ::shrug:: Surely dead now.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Eric on January 13, 2018, 04:29:17 PM
LOL...thread is made and the 18z GFS goes absolutely bone dry.  Fantastic!
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: justinmundie on January 13, 2018, 04:42:33 PM
I have faith Susan.

I say Nashville gets 2 inches out of this one. Night time, arctic front, high ratios. Lots can go wrong but itís not normal for the 18z gfs to score a coup.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Drifter49 on January 13, 2018, 04:42:41 PM
Bruce may as well have started this


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 13, 2018, 04:49:20 PM
I have faith.

 ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Its ok Susan. They give me grief for the other thread and I'm still digging out.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 13, 2018, 04:49:55 PM
IMO, stormshould be called Snow Storm Curt (I believe we can call it an all snow event)!!

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Beth on January 13, 2018, 05:01:16 PM
Its ok Susan. They give me grief for the other thread and I'm still digging out.

Yep and maybe we get even more snow since you started it Susan!  Thanks!  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: pirates1 on January 13, 2018, 05:56:27 PM
Come on Susan!  Wilcoers have to stick together.  I am in Spring Hill.  We got a tiny flizzard!  Does it look like anything for Spring Hill?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 13, 2018, 05:59:54 PM
It takes 3-5" for UT to hit the "class is canceled" button.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Michael on January 13, 2018, 06:05:59 PM
Well, MRX tryna buzz kill. Lol. Theyíre so conservative. Must be going with 8:1 ratios lol.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180114/68967e17d18274947f76ef35f10ba233.jpg)


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Michael on January 13, 2018, 06:10:00 PM
They must be using 18z GFS? 18z NAM and 12z Euro would be higher. Surely they arenít using Canadian. 12z CMC and 18z GFS would correlate to that map at maybe 12:1 ratios.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dave R on January 13, 2018, 06:11:30 PM
OHX:

Quote
The next substantial feature of interest will be in the form of a southward dropping clipper which will bring snow to the area Mon nt and into Tuesday. Overall liquid equivalent amounts will be rather low, but perhaps an inch or two of snow will fall. Snow ratios will be rather appreciable at close to 15:1 or so. Snow chances look like they will be on the upswing as well. Models in line with deep moisture along the boundary. Forcing in the lower levels is rather weak. However, 700 mb vertical displacement does align nicely with both the deep moisture as well as some upper diffluence. Mixing ratios are semi-note worthy within the 725 mb isentropic level.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Beth on January 13, 2018, 06:21:26 PM
OHX:
Um 1 to 2 inches would be more than we got yesterday. I like it when they are conservative as we will sometimes get more. Hard sitting there yesterday watching the dry air keep the snow at bay for several hours! 😖
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Susan on January 13, 2018, 06:24:49 PM
Ahhahahahaha!

3rd post in and the complaining begins. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 13, 2018, 06:30:27 PM
Currently the CMC (mostly SW Tn) NAVGEM and NAM ( especially south of 40) look the best. The Euro is decent and GFS and RGEM (only goes to hour 54 are dry.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 13, 2018, 06:30:57 PM
Ahhahahahaha!

3rd post in and the complaining begins.

 ;D I was complaining about the GFS raining on our parade, not the thread.  Never the thread.   ::guitar::

Post Merge: January 13, 2018, 06:42:07 PM
Well, MRX tryna buzz kill. Lol. Theyíre so conservative. Must be going with 8:1 ratios lol.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180114/68967e17d18274947f76ef35f10ba233.jpg)


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I hardly read their AFD's anymore during winter.  Their discussions about snow are like listening to this guy. 

(http://cdn.quotesgram.com/small/43/84/2032286593-teacher.jpg)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: jessiessie on January 13, 2018, 06:43:13 PM
Iím really hoping for some snow in Chattanooga this round. Anything more than the 6 minutes of flurries we got last night would be great!


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 13, 2018, 07:46:09 PM
Bruce may as well have started this


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no. Comment....

Post Merge: January 13, 2018, 08:40:09 PM
0z nam gets the precip going little later on this run. Sw tenn still does best. Areas south maybe looking better than most of us
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: aeasberry21 on January 13, 2018, 08:49:40 PM
0z nam looks pretty good for highland rim and plateau.  1-3 inch with highest totals towards Crossville.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 13, 2018, 09:04:29 PM
It's STILL the NAM, but the eastern TN valley does better than the GOOFS.  If NAM is telling us the truth, Knoxville and areas toward the foothills could expect at least a respectable 2 inches of fluffy snow. NAM, please keep it REAL. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 13, 2018, 09:15:23 PM
LOL. NAM gives GFS the middle finger. Ha.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Eric on January 13, 2018, 09:22:40 PM
NAM32, NAM12 say snow.  NAM3 says nope.   ::coffee::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Adam on January 13, 2018, 09:35:15 PM
NAM32, NAM12 say snow.  NAM3 says nope.   ::coffee::
NAM3 only goes out to 60 hours, so we are not seeing the entire picture there. I am fascinated by this setup and I hope it works out for someone. People should hop in the chatroom for the 0z GFS.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 13, 2018, 09:44:00 PM
NAM32, NAM12 say snow.  NAM3 says nope.   ::coffee::

I think I'll just stop watching the models until Monday morning.  It's the weekend, after all.   ::ski::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 13, 2018, 09:49:59 PM
Its ok Susan. They give me grief for the other thread and I'm still digging out.
You did good. There was model consensus of a storm in our area. I was confident someone in west or middle tn at least was going to score when you started it. Congrats on a thread well done! ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 13, 2018, 09:51:56 PM
I think I'll just stop watching the models until Monday morning.  It's the weekend, after all.   ::ski::

BS  ::rofl:: Like what you told me a month ago, you will be checking them again by noon tomorrow
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 13, 2018, 09:57:33 PM
GFS comes in with a little more moisture.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 13, 2018, 10:14:53 PM
BS  ::rofl:: Like what you told me a month ago, you will be checking them again by noon tomorrow

(http://www.sherv.net/cm/emoticons/embarrassed/shy-whistler.gif)

Geez...you young peoples and your good memories.   ;D
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 13, 2018, 10:30:53 PM
I'm hoping we can pick up a couple inches in the East.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 13, 2018, 11:01:18 PM
Took off from model watching today to enjoy the snow win. Looking at the snow tonight it's saying to me it's ready for fresh coat. Time to start eyeing Monday. Let's bring another round home folks. Area wide power this time! ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

Post Merge: January 13, 2018, 11:31:41 PM
Um 1 to 2 inches would be more than we got yesterday. I like it when they are conservative as we will sometimes get more. Hard sitting there yesterday watching the dry air keep the snow at bay for several hours! 😖
We overcame it here but it was tough watching that radar. We really was literally right next to it for a while. Dover had over 2 inches at one time and we were still in light sleet mode. I am about 15 to 20 minutes tops straight down 79 from there. That line was going due north and couldn't budge east a bit. Looking at it on close up radar was brutal there for awhile. It would have frustrated any snow lover. I can handle missing out but that close would have been brutal. LOL! And then to top it off it looked like it might break apart and split most of middle tennessee altogether and then it slowed and started wrapping up and did the pinwheel thing and started rotating in from the northwest. I know you probably didn't get quite as much as us this time but figured you got a inch or 2 anyway. How much did you end up with Beth? Better luck next time to you and everyone else. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Clint on January 13, 2018, 11:44:00 PM
The 0z CMC/GDPS from Pivotal... tropical tidbits would not open the CMC.

(https://i.imgur.com/eQRMNvR.png)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Tamlin on January 14, 2018, 12:28:23 AM
0z Euro text output

Memphis - 0.21Ē
Little Rock - 0.22Ē
Nashville - 0.10Ē
Dyersburg - 0.08Ē
Jonesboro - 0.06Ē
Knoxville - 0.11Ē
Chattanooga - 0.11Ē

Thermals suggest 15:1 ratios across the board except for maybe CHA.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Curt on January 14, 2018, 12:30:28 AM
0z Euro text output

Memphis - 0.21Ē
Little Rock - 0.22Ē
Nashville - 0.10Ē
Dyersburg - 0.08Ē
Jonesboro - 0.06Ē
Knoxville - 0.11Ē
Chattanooga - 0.11Ē

Thermals suggest 15:1 ratios across the board except for maybe CHA.


Kuchera ratios 0z euro

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180114/3a4b21d20df92b398c06bba108a994ad.jpg)

Title: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Curt on January 14, 2018, 12:43:12 AM
SREF plumes going up now. Most average 1/2 inch. Memphis has between .05 and .10 all falling at temps around 20
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 14, 2018, 01:22:02 AM
The Euro gives a big portion of Tennessee .12 to .20 according to this. Looking  at surface map it took a step in the right direction and is real close to being really interesting.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/2q9dpnl.jpg)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Beth on January 14, 2018, 02:54:53 AM
Took off from model watching today to enjoy the snow win. Looking at the snow tonight it's saying to me it's ready for fresh coat. Time to start eyeing Monday. Let's bring another round home folks. Area wide power this time! ::guitar::
::yum:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

Post Merge: January 13, 2018, 11:31:41 PM
We overcame it here but it was tough watching that radar. We really was literally right next to it for a while. Dover had over 2 inches at one time and we were still in light sleet mode. I am about 15 to 20 minutes tops straight down 79 from there. That line was going due north and couldn't budge east a bit. Looking at it on close up radar was brutal there for awhile. It would have frustrated any snow lover. I can handle missing out but that close would have been brutal. LOL! And then to top it off it looked like it might break apart an ::snowman::d split most of middle tennessee altogether and then it slowed and started wrapping up and did the pinwheel thing and started rotating in from the northwest. I know you probably didn't get quite as much as us this time but figured you got a inch or 2 anyway. How much did you end up with Beth? Better luck next time to you and everyone else. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
I probably got about a inch on Saturday.  My granddaughter still had a blast playing in it. She is like her Mimi and loves her snow, lol.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 14, 2018, 03:19:35 AM
LMK is going with ~1-2" for their CWA. We got a little over an inch from this last system, so here is to hoping we get another inch from this one.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 14, 2018, 05:38:25 AM
Meg going with 1 to 3 inches in se counties of Arkansas
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 14, 2018, 06:54:23 AM
MRX sticking to their half inch for most, and up to 3 inches on the Plateau and southwest VA.  NAM continues to show significantly more in the valley over here--around .28 in liquid equivalent.  Why so much more on the plateau and southwest VA when this isn't a rain to snow event?  Don't get that line of reasoning since elevation won't play much of a factor with precipitation types.

EDIT:  Looking at the Euro--even it has nearly 2" in some of the valley locations near the foothills.  I guess MRX will downplay this up until the day it happens, then suddenly increase amounts if models continue to show an advisory level event.  I've seen that happen many times before. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 14, 2018, 08:10:34 AM
The latest run of the GFS gives me a bigger snowfall (~2") with this system than the last event.
It gives Nashville an inch. But Memphis gets hosed. Sorry fam.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: harlequin on January 14, 2018, 08:14:04 AM
This would be nice, but I'm not holding my breath.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTf0YajU8AAH0NW.jpg)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 14, 2018, 08:26:59 AM
The NAM just came in snowier for everyone. Huge uptick in QPF on this run.

At least on the 12km, the 3km looks much more realistic imo.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 14, 2018, 08:28:57 AM
The NAM just came in snowier for everyone. Huge uptick in QPF on this run.
yeah  we just got nam d ... little more tilt to the trough appears

Post Merge: January 14, 2018, 08:34:07 AM
if the latest run of the nam is on to something... there maybe some spots get 4 inches ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 14, 2018, 08:39:50 AM
The NAM just came in snowier for everyone. Huge uptick in QPF on this run.

EDIT: Hopefully, the Euro stays on board and GFS gets on board the snow train.  :D

(http://2.media.collegehumor.cvcdn.com/36/68/f398e5d1aaf469dfae8b401769df2820.gif)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 14, 2018, 08:44:02 AM
Hopefully, the Euro and GFS get on board the snow train. 

(http://2.media.collegehumor.cvcdn.com/36/68/f398e5d1aaf469dfae8b401769df2820.gif)

The Euro has been one of the more consistent models showing decent QPF for this event. I am curious to see the GFS.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 14, 2018, 08:46:29 AM
hope ones didnt do good last storm get nailed... i had enough for a little while... nam has me worried.... i already still cant get up this drive  of mine >:D

Post Merge: January 14, 2018, 08:48:02 AM
the nam wasnt that far off from being wsw  issued to be honest... gfs will beintersting
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 14, 2018, 08:49:33 AM
The Euro has been one of the more consistent models showing decent QPF for this event. I am curious to see the GFS.

Noticed the NAM also kept some light snow showers going for a bit after the initial system, which makes sense in the cold northerly flow.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 14, 2018, 08:51:03 AM
susan... think you did great job starting th ::snowman::ad... it may have legs after all...

Post Merge: January 14, 2018, 08:54:57 AM
main reason for the up tick in qpf... the trough trying to go negative titled...
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 14, 2018, 09:10:37 AM
This is the best chance for snow East TN has had yet.  ::popcorn::

If this works out, it's Middle TN's turn next.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 14, 2018, 09:12:00 AM
This is the best chance for snow East TN has had yet.  ::popcorn::

If this works out, it's Middle TN's turn next.
keep it   . enough here... affraid more is coming for us here
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: spanarkle08 on January 14, 2018, 09:14:10 AM
keep it   . enough here... affraid more is coming for us here

The maps look thinner on a stretch through middle west TN
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 14, 2018, 09:35:42 AM
All the models agree, even GFS, that it intensifies once it reaches the east. The great thing about this one is that it won't get chopped up on the god dang plateau.  ::doh::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 14, 2018, 09:58:05 AM
It's PURE POWDER TIME IN TENNESSEE!!!!!! ::guitar:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 14, 2018, 10:01:56 AM
The 12z GFS has come in with slightly more moisture. Ratios would be closer to 15:1 instead of the standard 10:1.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Crockett on January 14, 2018, 10:03:42 AM
All the models agree, even GFS, that it intensifies once it reaches the east. The great thing about this one is that it won't get chopped up on the god dang plateau.  ::doh::

Jealousy gets you nowhere in life...
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: cliftown04 on January 14, 2018, 10:12:25 AM
Iíll be curious if almost all will squeeze out a dusting at minimum. Regardless of precip modeled?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 14, 2018, 10:22:02 AM
Iíll be curious if almost all will squeeze out a dusting at minimum. Regardless of precip modeled?
Unless something drastic happens and models completely dry up , this could be one of those rare occasions that everyone sees measureable snow.

Post Merge: January 14, 2018, 10:26:55 AM
Nice increase on the CMC statewide. This is 10/1 so totals would be much better.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/2d1743t.jpg)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Curt on January 14, 2018, 10:31:19 AM
12z nam catching up on qpf? Almost consistent 0.1 to .20 amounts statewide. Some areas just south of Memphis are .25-.30. All of this falls behind the front in upper teens to low 20ís
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 14, 2018, 10:46:25 AM
Jealousy gets you nowhere in life...
Truth- it's not always easy, though.  Misery loves company. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 14, 2018, 10:48:19 AM
12z nam catching up on qpf? Almost consistent 0.1 to .20 amounts statewide. Some areas just south of Memphis are .25-.30. All of this falls behind the front in upper teens to low 20ís
Verbatim - that would be a really nice event, especially with the higher ratios and perhaps some existing snow cover out there. 

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 14, 2018, 11:08:29 AM
12z nam catching up on qpf? Almost consistent 0.1 to .20 amounts statewide. Some areas just south of Memphis are .25-.30. All of this falls behind the front in upper teens to low 20ís

While not a snow "storm," this would be an enjoyable event statewide, and most of it falls during daylight hours.  However, travel conditions will be pretty nasty since the cold will make it difficult to treat the roads.  This snow will stick from the very first flake. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 14, 2018, 11:44:31 AM
Jealousy gets you nowhere in life...

Wise words, I'll take note  ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 14, 2018, 11:55:23 AM
I am very curious to see what the Euro shows today.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Adam on January 14, 2018, 11:58:06 AM
All computer models showing an uptick in snowfall totals, still waiting on the Euro. One impressive thing that stands out is how saturated the atmosphere will be with temperatures this cold. I think the question is not whether or not its going to snow, but just how much at this point.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: pirates1 on January 14, 2018, 11:58:33 AM
From what Nashville Severe Weather says in their blog leads me to think this system is nothing to worry about all.  They say all of the models show less (much less) than an inch. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 14, 2018, 12:00:53 PM
From what Nashville Severe Weather says in their blog leads me to think this system is nothing to worry about all.  They say all of the models show less (much less) than an inch.
Needs to update his blog imo. He could be correct but models at this point are trending better.
Title: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Curt on January 14, 2018, 12:06:48 PM
Euro is actually increasing qpf

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180114/0133abf368513231ecc36137074c7166.png)

KMem for the win?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 14, 2018, 12:18:13 PM
From Pivotal Weather, here is what each model is showing QPF wise for Nashville:

CMC: .14"
RGEM: .10"
GFS: .09"
12km NAM: .16"
3km NAM: .07"
EURO (not available on PW, but from what Curt posted): at least .10"

Each of these models show a Winter Wx Advisory level event for Nashville. The GFS is meager with moisture south of I-40, where as the 3km NAM is meager with moisture across the northern and NW sections of middle TN.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 14, 2018, 12:20:13 PM
Euro is actually increasing qpf

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180114/0133abf368513231ecc36137074c7166.png)

KMem for the win?
Was about to post same map. Best run yet. Verbatim with awesome ratios almost everyone would get 1-4 inches.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: justinmundie on January 14, 2018, 12:28:58 PM
This is not a normal southern snow situation. People will be surprised.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: jbmac25 on January 14, 2018, 12:32:58 PM
This is not a normal southern snow situation. People will be surprised.

Justin, can you be more specific as to why that is?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 14, 2018, 12:34:13 PM
This is not a normal southern snow situation. People will be surprised.

Yup, its a "dont ya know eh" system instead of a system from the south. It might produce a snowflake instead of everything in between.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 14, 2018, 12:38:13 PM
The Arctic front seems to slow somewhat as it moves through TN, and it appears a very weak wave of low pressure forms somewhere near southern Arkansas and moves up along it.  It's very weak, but just enough to enhance the snowfall, especially over the Arklatex area into southwest TN. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: justinmundie on January 14, 2018, 12:53:26 PM
This is not a normal southern snow situation. People will be surprised.

Itís an anafrontal system that has a bit of gulf moisture involved. Temps are really low and moisture content really high. We donít normally see the kind of powder weíre gonna see.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Adam on January 14, 2018, 01:09:26 PM
Itís an anafrontal system that has a bit of gulf moisture involved. Temps are really low and moisture content really high. We donít normally see the kind of powder weíre gonna see.
The column is going to be saturated all the way past 700 mb which is impressive. Although we are usually used to small snowflakes with dry snow, we may see some big flakes during this event.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: snowdog on January 14, 2018, 01:24:13 PM
The column is going to be saturated all the way past 700 mb which is impressive. Although we are usually used to small snowflakes with dry snow, we may see some big flakes during this event.

I'm getting a little saturated just thinking about the possibilities.
Title: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Curt on January 14, 2018, 01:38:41 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180114/0788b3059cea4d74dd311b512fd3a915.jpg)

12z eps mean amazing agreement in just about all 50 members and itís control

Still reminds me of NYE 2000 where State played in the Shreveport blizzard in the independence bowl
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: justinmundie on January 14, 2018, 01:40:19 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180114/0788b3059cea4d74dd311b512fd3a915.jpg)


Gotta love that Nashville snow hole.

We always have trouble in low qpf situations because weíre in a bowl
12z eps mean amazing agreement in just about all 50 members and itís control

Still reminds me of NYE 2000 where State played in the Shreveport blizzard in the independence bowl

Post Merge: January 14, 2018, 01:41:57 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180114/0788b3059cea4d74dd311b512fd3a915.jpg)

12z eps mean amazing agreement in just about all 50 members and itís control

Still reminds me of NYE 2000 where State played in the Shreveport blizzard in the independence bowl

And the snow bowl was a great memory for this state fan, as well was leaving the movie with my date that night to a half inch of unexpected powder.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 14, 2018, 01:44:49 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180114/0788b3059cea4d74dd311b512fd3a915.jpg)

12z eps mean amazing agreement in just about all 50 members and itís control

Still reminds me of NYE 2000 where State played in the Shreveport blizzard in the independence bowl

A jewel of a snow event because it will stick from the first flake, there's no chance for a warm finger, and everyone gets in on it.  Statewide snow events are rare for Tennessee, and if models don't flip out on us, we're about to get one. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 14, 2018, 01:47:13 PM
Euro is actually increasing qpf

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180114/0133abf368513231ecc36137074c7166.png)

KMem for the win?
That's fairly impressive

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 14, 2018, 01:49:09 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180114/0788b3059cea4d74dd311b512fd3a915.jpg)

12z eps mean amazing agreement in just about all 50 members and itís control

Still reminds me of NYE 2000 where State played in the Shreveport blizzard in the independence bowl
Winter Storm Curt The I40 Special. ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Curt on January 14, 2018, 02:21:41 PM
Probably about to see Shreveport and Little Rock issue some winter storm watches would guess for a good chunk of their area
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 14, 2018, 02:30:32 PM
Probably about to see Shreveport and Little Rock issue some winter storm watches would guess for a good chunk of their area
yeah  shreveport just issued for their area minutes ago....
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 14, 2018, 02:46:39 PM
Latest AFD from MEG sounds really conservative
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Drifter49 on January 14, 2018, 02:52:53 PM
I'm getting a little saturated just thinking about the possibilities.

Totally understand! Wetbulbing would not be the proper way to express this one.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 14, 2018, 02:56:30 PM
OHX going 1-2"  area wide at this time.

(http://www.weather.gov/images/ohx/graphicast/image3.png?437f6ff75f85b40a5eda97c861934a2c)

Post Merge: January 14, 2018, 03:00:07 PM
AFD out from OHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
248 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...

It`s another chilly day across Middle TN, but the sun is out and the
wind isn`t blowing like it has the last few days, so it`s not awful.
All this sun is helping to clear some spots of the snow and ice from
the other day.  Shady roads won`t get any help because temperatures
are still in the upper 20s, but most should clear up. This is ahead
of yet another chance for some snow tomorrow night and Tuesday. More
on that in a minute.  First, we have to deal with tonight.

Cloud cover just off to our west will continue to push eastward this
evening.  These clouds are part of a clipper that will bring light
snow/flurries to the region tonight.  A few obs sites are already
recording snowfall upstream in southern Missouri and northern
Arkansas.  Expectations are for Middle TN to only see flurries from
this clipper as the depth of moisture with this clipper is very
limited.  In fact, forecast soundings dry out quickly after midnight
for a majority of the mid-state, leaving flurries for the northern
Plateau through daybreak tomorrow.  There should be no impacts from
this quick-hitting clipper.  Due to the extensive cloud cover,
temperatures should only fall off into the low to mid 20s.

The more impactful weather is going to hold off until Monday night
and Tuesday.  A frontal system will dive into the region during the
morning hours on Monday.  Most everyone will climb into the 40s
Tuesday, so while the majority of this system will be all snow,
there is the potential for some very cold rain right on the front
edge of the precipitation -- maybe even a mix of rain and snow --
but the changeover to all snow will happen rather quickly after the
sun goes down Monday night.  QPFs aren`t crazy at any point Monday
night or Tuesday, so this shouldn`t be a crippling system, but I do
think we will range from 0.5 to 2 inches across a large portion of
the mid-state.  I have the higher totals on the Plateau, per the
norm, but a 0.5 to 1.5 inches isn`t out of the question for everyone
else. The downside, the snow will last through the morning hours and
into the afternoon on Tuesday, so there will likely be at least some
impact for the morning and maybe even the afternoon commutes. A
Winter Weather Advisory will likely be issued at some point tonight
for Monday night and Tuesday.

On top of all that, bone chilling air is going to filter into Middle
TN behind this system. Highs in the teens and 20s Tuesday and
Wednesday and more importantly, morning lows in the teens are
expected Tuesday morning and single digits on Wednesday and Thursday
mornings as 850 mb temperatures crash into the -12 to -15 degree
range.

The rest of the week should be dry and temperatures will recover
well by next weekend.  In fact, we should be back into the 50s
Saturday and Sunday.  However, this only means we`ll have yet
another system on our door step by the end of the weekend.  Details
are still sketchy due to timing, but rains will likely move into the
area by Sunday night or Monday morning.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 14, 2018, 03:23:50 PM
Yup, its a "dont ya know eh" system instead of a system from the south. It might produce a snowflake instead of everything in between.

The Canada reference made me laugh  ;D

Truth be told, I still can't tell apart the difference between Americans and Canadians ::shrug::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 14, 2018, 04:00:47 PM
Latest 12k NAM is the best run yet. Widespread 2-4 at 10:1 especially south of 40. 3k continues to be drier.(http://i68.tinypic.com/29kyq7p.jpg)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 14, 2018, 04:27:20 PM
Latest AFD from MEG sounds really conservative
Would agree- there wasn't really any indication per the AFD as to why they were suddenly going more conservative. It may well be correct to go conservative but I'm not sure why.



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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 14, 2018, 04:34:30 PM
18z GFS also continued to up the QPF output. We should see OHX issue a WWA for all their counties tonight and call for 1-2". That would be my guess anyways.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Curt on January 14, 2018, 04:35:45 PM
SREF plumes still going up on the latest 15z. The corridor from pine bluff to Memphis to Nashville now on average is between .10 and .15 with the average snow mean pushing 1.5 at all locations. Thatís for 10:1 ratios which we all know will be higher
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 14, 2018, 04:57:17 PM
Starting to feel optimistic about this one.  Usually, the models show a decent clipper then trend drier and drier until there's nothing left but flurries.  Every model has been trending wetter with this one for two days now.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 14, 2018, 04:58:09 PM
Starting to feel optimistic about this one.  Usually, the models show a decent clipper then trend drier and drier until there's nothing left but flurries.  Every model has been trending wetter with this one for two days now.

And you just jinx'd it. Boooo
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 14, 2018, 05:06:16 PM
And you just jinx'd it. Boooo
Nope. We past all that jinx stuff. We are on a roll.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: ash3211 on January 14, 2018, 05:10:05 PM
How is this looking for Dyersburg and timing?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 14, 2018, 05:16:25 PM
How is this looking for Dyersburg and timing?
As currently modeled around an inch but subject to change. It will be Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Post Merge: January 14, 2018, 05:32:25 PM
The HRRR is showing snow showers for Kentucky and Northern Middle Tn in the morning. I guess maybe with the southerly flow in front of the cold front. It also looks healthier than the NAM with snow along the front as it moves into NW Tn at the end of its current run.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mtcards on January 14, 2018, 06:03:10 PM
Would agree- there wasn't really any indication per the AFD as to why they were suddenly going more conservative. It may well be correct to go conservative but I'm not sure why.

pretty much standard recently to go conservative in all winter situations.   It seems like the emphasis is being put on being close and say a storm "overproduced" instead of making a call and being wrong
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 14, 2018, 06:09:12 PM
MRX just boosted their forecast. They think 1.1" for Knoxville. I think that is a conservative albeit good forecast. Anything from 1-3" seems plausible for our area.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 14, 2018, 06:14:53 PM
And you just jinx'd it. Boooo

If you get less than an inch, feel free to blame me.   ::deadhorse::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JHart on January 14, 2018, 06:16:04 PM
Here are some photos taken after a similar setup back in December 2010.  Only about three inches fell, but persistent NW wind drifted the powder nearly three feet deep in places.  (The ditch shown is three feet deep.)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 14, 2018, 06:17:40 PM
Here are some photos taken after a similar setup back in December 2010.  Only about three inches fell, but persistent NW wind drifted the powder nearly three feet deep in places.

Brrr...you can almost feel the cold in those pics.  ::cold::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JHart on January 14, 2018, 06:23:06 PM
I couldn't feel much of anything after taking them.   :)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: harlequin on January 14, 2018, 06:35:00 PM
pretty much standard recently to go conservative in all winter situations.   It seems like the emphasis is being put on being close and say a storm "overproduced" instead of making a call and being wrong

Probably true. That said, MEG is usually the least conservative out of the 3 TN NWS offices in my opinion. I don't think their forecast is unreasonable or anything, but there was a shift in tone with this afternoon's package. MEG is also usually pretty verbose w/ forecast explanations.

I'm also not suggesting MEG usually overhypes events. I've always found them to be a very solid WFO.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Heath22 on January 14, 2018, 07:05:38 PM
yeah  shreveport just issued for their area minutes ago....

Is this their 2nd this year?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 14, 2018, 07:39:52 PM
Is this their 2nd this year?
pretty sure Heath... back December also
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 14, 2018, 07:51:17 PM
Probably true. That said, MEG is usually the least conservative out of the 3 TN NWS offices in my opinion. I don't think their forecast is unreasonable or anything, but there was a shift in tone with this afternoon's package. MEG is also usually pretty verbose w/ forecast explanations.

I'm also not suggesting MEG usually overhypes events. I've always found them to be a very solid WFO.
Well, they might be seeing something we don't.  For one, it only takes about 0.05 QPF to get to an inch.  Second, not much  concerns about ground temps or anything.   Third, they are playing with house money at this point.  A call for 1 to 2 keeps them at advisory - level and they could easily move up to a warning from there (if warranted) and if there's nothing or just a dusting - not going to be nearly as big of an issue in the eyes of the public. 

That's just my viewpoint-  it's hard for me to believe they are going purposefully conservative on it this go around.  So, I'm thinking that they just don't think it will happen (or at least the forecast team in charge for the afternoon). 

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Susan on January 14, 2018, 07:58:26 PM
This is an edited quote from the OHX Discussion.

I kept watching to see if someone in their office would fix this, but they haven't.  The forecasted high for Tuesday is 20 degrees.   
This write-up is poor and should be fixed.

Quote
FXUS64 KOHX 142318
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
518 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

The more impactful weather is going to hold off until Monday night
and Tuesday.  A frontal system will dive into the region during the
morning hours on Monday.  Most everyone will climb into the 40s
Tuesday
, so while the majority of this system will be all snow,
there is the potential for some very cold rain right on the front
edge of the precipitation -- maybe even a mix of rain and snow --
but the changeover to all snow will happen rather quickly after the
sun goes down Monday night. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: harlequin on January 14, 2018, 08:44:58 PM
Well, they might be seeing something we don't.  For one, it only takes about 0.05 QPF to get to an inch.  Second, not much  concerns about ground temps or anything.   Third, they are playing with house money at this point.  A call for 1 to 2 keeps them at advisory - level and they could easily move up to a warning from there (if warranted) and if there's nothing or just a dusting - not going to be nearly as big of an issue in the eyes of the public. 

That's just my viewpoint-  it's hard for me to believe they are going purposefully conservative on it this go around.  So, I'm thinking that they just don't think it will happen (or at least the forecast team in charge for the afternoon). 

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Good points. They just didn't explain or hint at their change in reasoning. Either way they didn't shift that much. 1" versus 1.8" wouldn't be a swing at all if we were dealing with higher amounts.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Tamlin on January 14, 2018, 08:48:26 PM
Don't look now, but the 0z NAM is spitting out a line of ~0.3 - ~0.5" QPF from Shreveport to around Corinth.

Memphis proper doesn't get in on the action, but the Delta counties (including perhaps southern DeSoto) would reach warning level criteria on this run.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 14, 2018, 08:59:02 PM
3k NAM comes in with more moisture. It is evident there is going to be a sweet spot running SW to NE. Question is where exactly does this happen. Looks like from the I40 corridor south has the best chance.
Title: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Curt on January 14, 2018, 08:59:06 PM
Latest SREF continues to tick up along a Pine Bluff to Memphis to Nashville line up from .10 to about a mean of .15 and a snow total mean of 1.5. Dyersburg and Jonesboro are actually higher nearing .20 as a mean qpf. All qpf along this line is snow.

Shreveport has a mean qpf of around .20 but starts as rain before changing to snow

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180115/fd125c02c2631d23d14ac10d007ac5c6.png)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 14, 2018, 09:34:37 PM
Meg must be putting a lot on stock with the gfs  on this system ...
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Curt on January 14, 2018, 09:55:23 PM
Meg must be putting a lot on stock with the gfs  on this system ...

Actually the afd from last night was very euro focused. Theyíre spot on in playing conservative until tonightís runs. Higher ratios easily give the 40 corridor in the state 1 to 2 on the 0z gfs and its the driest model for now
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 14, 2018, 09:57:13 PM
Definitely seeing a trend in all models to more qpf. The 0z GFS and RGEM both come in wetter pretty much statewide.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 14, 2018, 10:13:14 PM
This is our year, we gonna score again. ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 14, 2018, 10:20:18 PM
Good points. They just didn't explain or hint at their change in reasoning. Either way they didn't shift that much. 1" versus 1.8" wouldn't be a swing at all if we were dealing with higher amounts.
I agree - explained nothing on that one.   Maybe it was just a professional judgment type of call, so there wasn't much to explain. 

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 14, 2018, 10:26:32 PM
This is our year, we gonna score again. ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::snowman::

**** yes we are  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 14, 2018, 10:28:31 PM
Currently there seems to be 2 different areas models are giving more qpf. One with the northern stream from the bootheel area down the Tn/Ky line and another with the I40 corridor and south when the southern stream gets involved. Be interesting to see how this plays out.

Post Merge: January 14, 2018, 10:34:23 PM
The CMC comes in hot. With ratios would be at least 2 to 4 statewide.

Post Merge: January 14, 2018, 10:38:37 PM
Wow. This is with 10:1 ratios.


(http://i66.tinypic.com/10r6cr9.jpg)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Curt on January 14, 2018, 11:21:50 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180115/54facb0ef06acb1e9d4dc55064b0d49c.jpg)

Maybe meg can just reproduce this graphic from last year
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 14, 2018, 11:32:01 PM
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 14, 2018, 11:42:36 PM
(Attachment Link)
They might nail it but seems like they are going awful low with even the drier GFS showing more than that. Just my opinion. They are a lot smarter than me. lol

edit That was issued at 1:45 pm. Things have trended since then.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 14, 2018, 11:47:35 PM
They might nail it but seems like they are going awful low with even the drier GFS showing more than that. Just my opinion. They are a lot smarter than me. lol

What would be the reason for their forecast? Do they think a lot of this showing up in the models will be evaporated before reaching the ground?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2018, 12:08:21 AM
0z euro yet slightly increases qpf.  Especially southern counties ...
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 15, 2018, 12:19:42 AM
Getting juicy.

(http://i65.tinypic.com/ff9rtk.jpg)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 15, 2018, 12:35:34 AM
What is LZK waiting on? This event is ~ 18 hours from starting for their southern CWA and nothing has been issued.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 15, 2018, 12:36:13 AM
The CMC and Euro are carbon copies of each other.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2018, 12:39:18 AM
The CMC and Euro are carbon copies of each other.
yep and with the gfs slowly increasing too... MEG you will think update their grids to increase if its ever so slightly
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 15, 2018, 12:44:11 AM
MRX hasn't even published a statement, last I checked. This is easily WWA territory.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 15, 2018, 12:48:07 AM
Just thought I would post because you don't see this very often 24 hours out.



(http://i64.tinypic.com/111s680.jpg)(http://i67.tinypic.com/qn46ly.jpg)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 15, 2018, 01:27:04 AM
What is LZK waiting on? This event is ~ 18 hours from starting for their southern CWA and nothing has been issued.
So, what do the hi-res models say?

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 15, 2018, 01:36:35 AM

 They might nail it but seems like they are going awful low with even the drier GFS showing more than that. Just my opinion. They are a lot smarter than me. lol

edit That was issued at 1:45 pm. Things have trended since then.

Yeah I know. Even with the trend, they still have me receiving less than an inch in my point forecast. Yesterday morning they had me receiving up to 2 1/2 inches.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 15, 2018, 03:07:44 AM
So, what do the hi-res models say?

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Same as yesterday. Looking like 1-3"+ with the highest QPF being across SW TN.

Post Merge: January 15, 2018, 03:39:07 AM
Little Rock will soon be issuing Winter Storm Warnings for their southern counties with Winter Wx Advisories north of there. Nashville will be issuing a Winter Wx Advisory for their entire CWA. Memphis hasn't said what they will do yet.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Beth on January 15, 2018, 04:35:42 AM
Same as yesterday. Looking like 1-3"+ with the highest QPF being across SW TN.

Post Merge: January 15, 2018, 03:39:07 AM
Little Rock will soon be issuing Winter Storm Warnings for their southern counties with Winter Wx Advisories north of there. Nashville will be issuing a Winter Wx Advisory for their entire CWA. Memphis hasn't said what they will do yet.

Nashville issued a WWA It came across one of my weather apps and woke me up!  🤪
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 15, 2018, 04:40:02 AM
Nashville issued a WWA It came across one of my weather apps and woke me up!  🤪
I can see that.... (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180115/ff71d18739ca5275f773c83c24dbbbba.jpg)

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 15, 2018, 04:42:42 AM
I can see that.... (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180115/ff71d18739ca5275f773c83c24dbbbba.jpg)

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Just kidding, MEG did issue a WWA but it wasn't showing on the map (classic shot)!

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 15, 2018, 04:47:13 AM
Shelby-  WWA

Desoto - WSW

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180115/8d100e8840ecf565909300b30579773f.jpg)

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 15, 2018, 04:58:16 AM
Despite increasing their snow totals to 1-2 inches, MRX still holding out on issuing a WWA.  Oh well, Alexia told me to expect snowy weather tomorrow, so now, I'm on board!  ::rofl::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 15, 2018, 04:58:42 AM
Your move, MRX.  ::snow::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 15, 2018, 05:00:28 AM
The HRRR and RAP look very anemic with the snowfall towards the end of their runs. Something to keep an eye on today...
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 15, 2018, 05:05:54 AM
The HRRR and RAP look very anemic with the snowfall towards the end of their runs. Something to keep an eye on today...

HRRR looked okay at the very end of the 9Z run. Moisture significantly increased in the span of a couple hours.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 15, 2018, 05:35:37 AM
WMC (Channel 5) in Memphis going very low on the snowfall...

Dusting to 1 inch in except for up to 1.5 inches in the NW MS region.  (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180115/5330c50ec6a0bd3c4614a54a74f2a6e3.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180115/a6e596f5f97a9c7b41a58dcb8e613213.jpg)

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Michael on January 15, 2018, 05:37:11 AM
This may be why MRX is holding out...
But, this was from the 3:16am AFD:


For Tuesday, a positively tilted trough will be just to our
northwest with the associated surface cold front pushing through the
forecast area. Temperatures will be cold enough for an all snow
event and there`s plenty of lift -- the big question continues to be
the amount of moisture available to work with. Models are in good
agreement on the onset of snow -- daybreak across the northern
plateau, midday across the TN valley, and midafternoon across the
eastern mountains. However, there`s still some disagreement with how
fast the boundary exits the area (and therefore how much snow will
fall), with the ECMWF and NAM continuing to be slower with the
progression of the trough and front than the GFS. WPC bumped QPF up
a bit again with this update, buying into the slightly slower
frontal progression. Opted to lean towards this thinking as well,
and as a result bumped snow totals up a bit more with this update.
Still thinking it 1-2" event for most of the area, with slightly
higher amounts along the northern plateau and SW VA and slightly
lower amounts in the southern TN valley, but this will probably be
enough to cause some travel issues during the day. Snow will
gradually taper off Tuesday evening with some lingering showers
possible overnight east of I-40.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: harlequin on January 15, 2018, 05:56:06 AM
(http://www.weather.gov/images/meg/graphicast/image2.png?5d156596194dc2943c1f27c3ced07604)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Hank W on January 15, 2018, 06:05:47 AM
Shelby-  WWA

Desoto - WSW

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180115/8d100e8840ecf565909300b30579773f.jpg)

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I like their call for now. That area from Desoto county back towards Little Rock south of 40 has been the sweet spot on models for several days. They are going with 2-3" for most of the advisory area stating up to 4" would be possible in the warning zones. They can watch short term trends today and always upgrade if needed.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 15, 2018, 06:09:36 AM
WMC (Channel 5) in Memphis going very low on the snowfall...

Dusting to 1 inch in except for up to 1.5 inches in the NW MS region.  (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180115/5330c50ec6a0bd3c4614a54a74f2a6e3.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180115/a6e596f5f97a9c7b41a58dcb8e613213.jpg)

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With the one Friday they had Memphis getting none . This was at 5 Friday morning. Turn the channel and WREG had 1-3. Dave trained them well.

Post Merge: January 15, 2018, 06:22:07 AM
There is one thing that is consistent on all models. The counties on the Tn/Ky line and the counties on the Tn/Ms/ Ala line are the sweet spot. All should see some snow but central West Tn is the dead spot if there is one.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Clint on January 15, 2018, 06:33:23 AM
Meg's AFD this morning...

Quote
..ANOTHER WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE MID-SOUTH...

.DISCUSSION...

Currently...A 1033 mb surface high sits over East Tennessee this
morning with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies across the Mid-
South and cold conditions. Temperatures are in the 20s with some
clouds streaming in from the NW.

Today through Thursday...An arctic front will push into the
northern part of the Mid-South this afternoon and sweep through
Northern Mississippi this evening. 00z models showing a decent
amount of lift and moisture across the north this afternoon so
some light snow should start to develop along the KY/MO borders.
This light snow will shift south during the evening and begin to
intensify across SW parts of the forecast area...East Central
Arkansas and NW Mississippi into Southwest Tennessee as the right
entrance region of the upper jet provides plenty of lift over an
area of deep moisture that extends in to the dendritic growth
zone. 00z models have come in slightly wetter with QPF totals
around 0.20 to 0.25 inches across east central Arkansas to NW
Mississippi. Amounts tail off to around 0.15 inches along the
I-40 corridor in West Tennessee with around 0.10 or a little less
toward NE Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel and toward Northeast
Mississippi. Continue to favor the consistent ECMWF and CMC models
which support this QPF and given the synoptic setup, make sense.
The 00z GFS trended snowier but is still on the dry side. It is
interesting to note that the 00z FV3 GFS run from yesterday had
higher QPFs than the operational version. Snow ratios will climb
to at least 15:1 as cold air deepens behind the arctic front.

This all results in 2-3 inches of snow across a large swath of
the Mid-South across east central Arkansas, Northwest Mississippi
and much of West Tennessee. Amounts will be closer to an inch
across Northeast Arkansas and Northeast Mississippi. Will go with
a winter storm warning across east central Arkansas south of I-40
and across NW Mississippi starting at 9 pm this evening and
continuing through noon. Some of this area could receive up to 4
inches. Will issue winter weather advisories across the remainder
of the Mid-South starting as soon as Noon today along the KY/MO
borders and eventually across Northeast Mississippi by 3 am
tonight through mid afternoon Tuesday as the band of snow sinks
southeast.

Along with the snow, northerly winds of 10-15 mph will usher in
much colder air and wind chills will fall below zero across the
northern part of the Mid-South by Tuesday morning and single
digits across much of the rest of the area. Wind chill advisory
will be issued for northern parts of the area for later tonight
into Tuesday morning. Snow will taper off from NW to SE Tuesday
morning through Tuesday mid-afternoon. Highs will only be in the
teens and lower 20s.

Tuesday night to Thursday night...An arctic airmass will cover
the region. Below zero windchills will be common by late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning as temps dip into the single digits
with a 1043 mb surface high over NW AR. Wednesday will be another
frigid day with highs in the 20s. Temps will drop quickly
Wednesday night as the high crests over the area and then slips
east late in the night. Winds may start to pick up and temps level
off but not before they drop into the single digits and teens.
Below zero wind chills possible over NW TN Thursday morning. As
arctic high pressure retreats temps will rebound into the 30s by
Thursday with one last cold night, in the 20s, Thursday night.

Friday through Sunday...Milder weather on tap as southerly flow
increases across the area in response to a storm system
developing over the southern plains. Could see temps approach 60
this weekend with a strong cold front moving through Sunday or
Sunday night.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 15, 2018, 06:41:43 AM
That's an awesome AFD from MEG.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 15, 2018, 06:50:13 AM
This may be why MRX is holding out...
But, this was from the 3:16am AFD:


For Tuesday, a positively tilted trough will be just to our
northwest with the associated surface cold front pushing through the
forecast area. Temperatures will be cold enough for an all snow
event and there`s plenty of lift -- the big question continues to be
the amount of moisture available to work with. Models are in good
agreement on the onset of snow -- daybreak across the northern
plateau, midday across the TN valley, and midafternoon across the
eastern mountains. However, there`s still some disagreement with how
fast the boundary exits the area (and therefore how much snow will
fall), with the ECMWF and NAM continuing to be slower with the
progression of the trough and front than the GFS. WPC bumped QPF up
a bit again with this update, buying into the slightly slower
frontal progression. Opted to lean towards this thinking as well,
and as a result bumped snow totals up a bit more with this update.
Still thinking it 1-2" event for most of the area, with slightly
higher amounts along the northern plateau and SW VA and slightly
lower amounts in the southern TN valley, but this will probably be
enough to cause some travel issues during the day. Snow will
gradually taper off Tuesday evening with some lingering showers
possible overnight east of I-40.


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I assume MRX is waiting for another few model runs concerning "available moisture."  If most models remains consistent today, I'd say they'll issue an advisory.  Knowing them, they'll probably wait until their 3 p.m. forecast update to totally commit. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: spanarkle08 on January 15, 2018, 06:51:53 AM

There is one thing that is consistent on all models. The counties on the Tn/Ky line and the counties on the Tn/Ms/ Ala line are the sweet spot. All should see some snow but central West Tn is the dead spot if there is one.

Yep...thats me!!!!
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 15, 2018, 07:03:52 AM
I noticed that Alabama has hoisted a winter storm watch for this event.  They haven't forgotten the January 2014 light, dry snow that virtually shut down a big part of the state.  Most cities in the south back then had a lesson in driving on dry powder, and how different it is than a wet slush, and were totally unprepared for how bad it was going to be.  Lesson learned. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2018, 07:11:54 AM
Appears that a pretty good dry slot has developed over southern Missouri with the band of snow sliding se as now...
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 15, 2018, 07:20:51 AM
Appears that a pretty good dry slot has developed over southern Missouri with the band of snow sliding se as now...
The radar looks much more impressive than what was modeled to my eye. Will be something to keep an eye on.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: snowdog on January 15, 2018, 07:44:56 AM
SREF looking good for both Mem and BNA. MEM with a mean a little over .15 and BNA a little under .15.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 15, 2018, 07:51:43 AM
I like their call for now. That area from Desoto county back towards Little Rock south of 40 has been the sweet spot on models for several days. They are going with 2-3" for most of the advisory area stating up to 4" would be possible in the warning zones. They can watch short term trends today and always upgrade if needed.
It looks good to me, too. If there is any heavier banding, I'm hoping to sneak into it in SE Shelby.

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 15, 2018, 07:53:38 AM
Looks like a little south wind component around Arkansas kind of steers it more easterly as it gets into Arkansas. Not that it won't go further south but it looks like it will pivot some there. Just a observation looking at Arkansas radar.  ::popcorn:: ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 15, 2018, 07:53:38 AM
SREF looking good for both Mem and BNA. MEM with a mean a little over .15 and BNA a little under .15.
Sound like 2 to 3 to me...

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Drifter49 on January 15, 2018, 07:58:35 AM
You guys enjoy. Getting ready to head out to somewhere, Iím sure Iíll hit some snow somewhere.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 15, 2018, 07:59:34 AM
SREF looking good for both Mem and BNA. MEM with a mean a little over .15 and BNA a little under .15.
I looked at several locations and everyone looks to be right at a 2 inch mean and they are tightly clustered.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 15, 2018, 08:07:13 AM
The 12z NAM crushes Nashville. I know it is past time to look at models, but this is the highest run of the NAM yet.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 15, 2018, 08:08:57 AM
HRRR simulated radar has what appears to be almost convective elements to it zipping along the Arctic front. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: milodog1 on January 15, 2018, 08:11:49 AM
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/952729796563341312


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: justinmundie on January 15, 2018, 08:13:40 AM
HRRR simulated radar has what appears to be almost convective elements to it zipping along the Arctic front.

Itís been looking like that for about 24 hours. This could be a really fun system.

Man I want the NAM to be right. Nashville could be looking at 3-5 if it is.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 15, 2018, 08:19:29 AM
This is the highest run of the 3km NAM too. I am with Mundie, man do I want this model to be correct.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: pirates1 on January 15, 2018, 08:25:53 AM
Since Inam pretty sure our county wonít close again I hope it avoids WilCo.  If I thought I saw a real snow day in our future I would be for it but since I heard on the news it will be drivable snow, I really donít want to get out in it and freeze.  See if you can work your magic.  #snowdome
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Coach B on January 15, 2018, 08:25:59 AM
The NAM has a couple of holes showing up in NW TN and S mid TN that we need to keep an eye on. After blanking last week some of us are still a little gun-shy. Lol
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2018, 08:30:05 AM
The NAM has a couple of holes showing up in NW TN and S mid TN that we need to keep an eye on. After blanking last week some of us are still a little gun-shy. Lol
something to keep eye on for sure... you can see dry slot ever so forming over southern portions of missouri...  interesting
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 15, 2018, 08:30:29 AM
Since Inam pretty sure our county wonít close again I hope it avoids WilCo.  If I thought I saw a real snow day in our future I would be for it but since I heard on the news it will be drivable snow, I really donít want to get out in it and freeze.  See if you can work your magic.  #snowdome

Ugh. I hate that they are calling this a "driveable snow". It is driveable until enough cars pack it down and, with temps dropping into the single digits, nothing will keep it from freezing and salt won't help melt it.

Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 15, 2018, 08:32:20 AM
The NAM has a couple of holes showing up in NW TN and S mid TN that we need to keep an eye on. After blanking last week some of us are still a little gun-shy. Lol

They way the NAM looks, with "blobs" of heavy snow here and there, it almost looks like a summer cold front with convection along it.

Post Merge: January 15, 2018, 08:34:49 AM
Ugh. I hate that they are calling this a "driveable snow". It is driveable until enough cars pack it down and, with temps dropping into the single digits, nothing will keep it from freezing and salt won't help melt it.

That's a HUGE misconception about a dry, powdery snow.  Ask Atlanta.  Like Alabama, they learned the hard way in January 2014 this isn't a drivable snow.   
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2018, 08:41:28 AM
They way the NAM looks, with "blobs" of heavy snow here and there, it almost looks like a summer cold front with convection along it.

Post Merge: January 15, 2018, 08:34:49 AM
That's a HUGE misconception about a dry, powdery snow.  Ask Atlanta.  Like Alabama, they learned the hard way in January 2014 this isn't a drivable snow.
from me experience on it... wet snow is much slicker that a powdery snow is... but once the powder gets packed good then its slick, thats if you get enough of it... lot times it will just blow away
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: a1star93 on January 15, 2018, 08:42:02 AM
Just thought I would post because you don't see this very often 24 hours out.



(http://i64.tinypic.com/111s680.jpg)(http://i67.tinypic.com/qn46ly.jpg)

looking at this map, looks like Arkansas, east texas and Louisana are in the sweet spot.  Am I seeing that correctly?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Thundersnow on January 15, 2018, 08:49:25 AM
Since Inam pretty sure our county wonít close again I hope it avoids WilCo.  If I thought I saw a real snow day in our future I would be for it but since I heard on the news it will be drivable snow, I really donít want to get out in it and freeze.  See if you can work your magic.  #snowdome

If tonightís forecast verifies, I doubt Williamson will open tomorrow, but weíll just have to see what happens.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 15, 2018, 09:00:15 AM
from me experience on it... wet snow is much slicker that a powdery snow is... but once the powder gets packed good then its slick, thats if you get enough of it... lot times it will just blow away

It all depends on intensity.  If dry snow is falling heavily enough to continually stay on the road and traffic can driver over it, it gets compacted into ice--and sticks.  East TN had about 1-2 inches of a very dry powder during the same snow that hit Alabama and Georgia in 2014, and even the interstates in Knoxville were snow and ice covered by evening.  It was so cold, they couldn't clear it off the roads. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: harlequin on January 15, 2018, 09:04:24 AM
It all depends on intensity.  If dry snow is falling heavily enough to continually stay on the road and traffic can driver over it, it gets compacted into ice--and sticks.  East TN had about 1-2 inches of a very dry powder during the same snow that hit Alabama and Georgia in 2014, and even the interstates in Knoxville were snow and ice covered by evening.  It was so cold, they couldn't clear it off the roads.

Yep. The MWN blog quoted this from the NWS in Amarillo.

Quote
ďWe typically get our worst travel problems and most accidents with 1-2 inches of snow. It actually seems like we have more problems with the dry, powdery snows than the wet, slushy snows. Just from my short experience out here, air temperatures of 28 F and lower seem to be when snow and ice accretion really start developing quickly on the roads.Ē - NWS-Amarillo Meteorologist

Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 15, 2018, 09:05:50 AM
The 12z NAM crushes Nashville. I know it is past time to look at models, but this is the highest run of the NAM yet.

I disagree, it is not past time to look at the models. Last event the 00Z Euro picked up on the major dry slot that was going to effect much of middle tn and this was the night before really. Im not saying you hug each run, but OHX is looking at the 12Z run to make adjustments to their forecast. If 18Z and 00Z trend as wet then we could see a slight change in forecast amounts.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2018, 09:08:08 AM
I disagree, it is not past time to look at the models. Last event the 00Z Euro picked up on the major dry slot that was going to effect much of middle tn and this was the night before really. Im not saying you hug each run, but OHX is looking at the 12Z run to make adjustments to their forecast. If 18Z and 00Z trend as wet then we could see a slight change in forecast amounts.
i m  going to actually agree with you on this... 8)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 15, 2018, 09:12:38 AM
i m   going to actually agree with you on this... 8)

Why thank you.Pay more attention and you too I might agree with :)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: bluegrasspr on January 15, 2018, 09:13:38 AM
Can anyone give me an approximate start time for the snow in Loudon County (just southwest of Knox)? Trying to decide if I should cancel a 9 a.m. court session.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Clint on January 15, 2018, 09:14:18 AM
13Z HRRR...

(https://i.imgur.com/OykGfsB.png)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 15, 2018, 09:17:00 AM
Can anyone give me an approximate start time for the snow in Loudon County (just southwest of Knox)? Trying to decide if I should cancel a 9 a.m. court session.

No, we can not give you a approximate time. For current forecast  timing, I would use the NWS timeline.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Drifter49 on January 15, 2018, 09:18:01 AM
i m  going to actually agree with you on this... 8)

Headed to Jackson to pick up my load going to Wisconsin. Do you know how 70 is between Huntingdon and Jackson?


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2018, 09:20:47 AM
Headed to Jackson to pick up my load going to Wisconsin. Do you know how 70 is between Huntingdon and Jackson?


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as of early yesterday morning  stil some ice big time... but see blade trucks buisy working on it all day yesterday... seem much better this morning drift
 

Post Merge: January 15, 2018, 09:22:06 AM
i live in spring creek... when you past the dollar store  blow your horn 3 houses past dollar store on right going to jackson. :)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: cgauxknox on January 15, 2018, 09:22:55 AM
MRX pulled the trigger on a WWA:

... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT... SNOW EXPECTED. PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS, INCLUDING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE ON TUESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED. * WHERE... PORTIONS OF EAST TENNESSEE, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. * WHEN... FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... BE PREPARED FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.
More Information

... SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... .A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLD AIR AND MOISTURE TO THE AREA... WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

I'm not sure why they say temps will be falling below freezing Tuesday afternoon as the low Monday night will be 27 and the high on Tuesday will only be 29 so we look to be below freezing for the duration of the event, not getting above freezing until sometime on Thursday.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dave R on January 15, 2018, 09:33:18 AM
(http://i67.tinypic.com/w1tyrs.jpg)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: bluegrasspr on January 15, 2018, 09:37:32 AM
No, we can not give you a approximate time. For current forecast  timing, I would use the NWS timeline.

Thanks. At the time of posting, I hadn't seen the WWA from MRX. Now it includes better start times. I appreciate your response, though.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: snowdog on January 15, 2018, 09:38:27 AM
I'll buy what the 12z NAM and RGEM are selling.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 15, 2018, 09:38:30 AM
(http://i67.tinypic.com/w1tyrs.jpg)


Silly to go with such localized amounts. They should just have 1-2" across a large area with areas tapering off given model data. NWS said it in a AFD yesterday I believe. Its very hard to forecast .10's of a inch of snow lol.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: wfrogge on January 15, 2018, 09:45:02 AM
13Z HRRR...

(https://i.imgur.com/OykGfsB.png)

Just a glance but it looks in line with the 3km +/- some holes that look more filled in on the HRRR
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Coach B on January 15, 2018, 09:46:34 AM
Getting pretty close to a statewide 1" plus snowfall with the 12z runs out so far. ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: snowdog on January 15, 2018, 09:47:27 AM
GFS with a generous 2.5" for BNA.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 15, 2018, 09:47:44 AM
You guys enjoy. Getting ready to head out to somewhere, Iím sure Iíll hit some snow somewhere.


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Have a good trip, Drifter!

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Susan on January 15, 2018, 09:48:20 AM

I'm not sure why they say temps will be falling below freezing Tuesday afternoon as the low Monday night will be 27 and the high on Tuesday will only be 29 so we look to be below freezing for the duration of the event, not getting above freezing until sometime on Thursday.

I'm not sure why our Tuesday high is forecasted as 19 and yours as 29?
I wouldn't think there would be that much of a difference?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dave R on January 15, 2018, 09:50:26 AM

Silly to go with such localized amounts. They should just have 1-2" across a large area with areas tapering off given model data. NWS said it in a AFD yesterday I believe. Its very hard to forecast .10's of a inch of snow lol.

Truth. When a map is that splotchy it's clear they have no idea where the splotches will be.

Why would bufkit output for BNA vs. KBNA on the 12z NAM be so disparate? Same reason?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Eric on January 15, 2018, 09:56:33 AM

Silly to go with such localized amounts. They should just have 1-2" across a large area with areas tapering off given model data. NWS said it in a AFD yesterday I believe. Its very hard to forecast .10's of a inch of snow lol.

Pretty sure that's all computer-derived.  There's not a meteorologist alive that would delineate something like that. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 15, 2018, 09:57:59 AM
I'm not sure why our Tuesday high is forecasted as 19 and yours as 29?
I wouldn't think there would be that much of a difference?

All I can figure about tomorrow is y'all will be in the colder air all day, and it won't arrive here until around lunch with the front?  That high of 29 (if it happens) would be very early in the day, probably.   

Models have performed poorly with high temperatures lately.  The forecast for today is 43 and sunshine.  It's cloudy and 28.  Unless we get sun soon, we aren't making it to 43.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dave R on January 15, 2018, 09:59:33 AM
Pretty sure that's all computer-derived.  There's not a meteorologist alive that would delineate something like that.

Dan Thomas posted a similarly splotchy map last night with the comment "My latest thoughts on snow totals".... I'd guess he was trying to get across the same general point I was - that they're generally going with 1-2" - rather than suggesting anyone look for pinpoint accuracy.

EDIT: Last night's map was all around 1". This map represents in increase.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BALLPARK on January 15, 2018, 10:02:08 AM
We have light to Moderate Snow falling ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Michael on January 15, 2018, 10:04:33 AM
When was the last time the ENTIRE STATE OF TENNESSEE had an Advisory/Watch/Warning at the same time? The whole state will score on this!

About time MRX came to the party  ::guitar:: ::applause::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 15, 2018, 10:05:29 AM
The GFS snow totals sometimes confuse me.  When I look at the total precipitation map, it shows TYS getting .17, and OHX getting .14.  Yet, when I switch to total snowfall, it shows 3 inches in Nashville and 1.5 in Knoxville.  I wonder if that's because our snow will be less "dry?"
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2018, 10:05:49 AM
appears some dry air is trying to eat away some of the precip going by returns on radar....a bit...
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Eric on January 15, 2018, 10:07:13 AM
Cobb data spitting out 4.1 for KBNA under an average 14:1 ratio, with occasional highs of 21-22:1.

(http://i63.tinypic.com/33uzz1k.png)


Post Merge: January 15, 2018, 10:08:17 AM
The GFS snow totals sometimes confuse me.  When I look at the total precipitation map, it shows TYS getting .17, and OHX getting .14.  Yet, when I switch to total snowfall, it shows 3 inches in Nashville and 1.5 in Knoxville.  I wonder if that's because our snow will be less "dry?"

Where are you getting 3" for BNA?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 15, 2018, 10:17:47 AM
I have to say, while nothing is far from certain I think this system has potential to overperform at least slightly overall for many folks. ::popcorn:: ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 15, 2018, 10:21:12 AM
Cobb data spitting out 4.1 for KBNA under an average 14:1 ratio, with occasional highs of 21-22:1.

(http://i63.tinypic.com/33uzz1k.png)


Post Merge: January 15, 2018, 10:08:17 AM
Where are you getting 3" for BNA?

From this site  http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ (http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/).  I'm just going by the color codes and numbers the graphics show, though.  May not be totally accurate.  Looks like 3.1 (Sn. Accum. Kuchera).

 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: harlequin on January 15, 2018, 10:40:51 AM
appears some dry air is trying to eat away some of the precip going by returns on radar....a bit...

I wouldn't use current upstream returns to extrapolate anything for this evening yet. We're at least 9 hours away from any meaningful precip along I40.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2018, 10:41:59 AM
I wouldn't use current upstream returns to extrapolate anything for this evening yet. We're at least 9 hours away from any meaningful precip along I40.
depends lot on lift from a jet streak later  guess....
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dave R on January 15, 2018, 11:16:36 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTmQj0sVAAAmF1h.png:large)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: snowdog on January 15, 2018, 11:23:06 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTmQj0sVAAAmF1h.png:large)

Seems a little conservative considering 12z data. I'd probably go 2-3" for BNA.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: justinmundie on January 15, 2018, 11:26:03 AM
I wouldn't use current upstream returns to extrapolate anything for this evening yet. We're at least 9 hours away from any meaningful precip along I40.

Donít bother trying to explain anything to Bruce. Heís either intentionally obtuse or just completely unable to comprehend basic meteorology
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 15, 2018, 11:30:22 AM
Seems a little conservative considering 12z data. I'd probably go 2-3" for BNA.

Based on this afternoons 12Z data I agree thats reasonable. OHX rather be on the low side since its more likey than the high side.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 15, 2018, 11:33:06 AM
Seeing anything in Northwest TN? I see the radar returns have moved into that area.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2018, 11:42:29 AM
Seeing anything in Northwest TN? I see the radar returns have moved into that area.
think the very on set of this is virga... talked to a friend over in jonesboro ark.   seeing few flurries just far.... but noticed dry slot has filled in pretty good... once we get the columns moist , start to see flakes getting to the ground... think bna may be in decent spot... cause returns back in ark seem going more east than south push... we see ::coffee::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 15, 2018, 12:08:19 PM
Just saw the first flakes.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: dave on January 15, 2018, 12:18:34 PM
Just saw the first flakes.
Better nip it in the bud... dandruff can get really bad in the winter.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 15, 2018, 12:24:49 PM
Steady fine light snow falling. Seems to slowly be picking up.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2018, 12:27:22 PM
balmy  41 here with nice sw breeze out , partly sunny... crazy change on the horizon coming... >:D
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 15, 2018, 12:34:15 PM
Sun just came out here.  Temp at 36.7.  Honestly, I hope it stays clear into the evening and after sunset.  Clear skies = more cooling overnight, and the closer the temperature is to the dew point tomorrow morning, the sooner the flakes will reach the ground. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Scot on January 15, 2018, 12:36:55 PM
With the radar returns, sure looks like the northern counties could really get a nice snow.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Curt on January 15, 2018, 12:41:05 PM
(http://i68.tinypic.com/ehzw9j.png)
RAP total precip wow

Post Merge: January 15, 2018, 12:50:10 PM
For Memphis folks- RAP and HRR are really consistent with snow starting tonight between 9-10 and lasting until about 10am tomorrow. Precip totals are around 0.20 so far.

Just to give some reference on potential ratios...last January Memphis got 2 inches of snow with 0.08 in qpf with similar temps to tonight's event. That was a 25:1. Not shabby indeed.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Drifter49 on January 15, 2018, 12:53:55 PM
Steady fine light snow falling. Seems to slowly be picking up.

Be headed through there shortly.  Just leaving Jackson.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2018, 12:56:01 PM
Be headed through there shortly.  Just leaving Jackson.


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you coming up  70?

Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: StormNine on January 15, 2018, 12:58:51 PM
The heavier rates and the slowing down of the front really increase the potential for a pocket of 3-5 inches in some of the same areas hit hardest by the last winter storm that is the KY/TN border from Dyersburg/Fulton over towards Paris and the Hopkinsville/Clarksville area. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 15, 2018, 12:59:49 PM
HRRR certainly looking beefy for most in west and middle TN right now.  I wonder if this system is tapping into more of the Gulf as it approaches, and the models are picking up on it.  The HRRR now shows a little mixed precip on the very front end as it hits the plateau later. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2018, 01:01:01 PM
The heavier rates and the slowing down of the front really increase the potential for a pocket of 3-5 inches in some of the same areas hit hardest by the last winter storm that is the KY/TN border from Dyersburg/Fulton over towards Paris and the Hopkinsville/Clarksville area.
thats  what im thinking myself...seems frontal has slowed down quite bit... allowing more qpf to ride the frontal boundary
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Drifter49 on January 15, 2018, 01:03:37 PM
you coming up  70?
You didnít hear the horn earlier?


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2018, 01:09:55 PM
You didnít hear the horn earlier?


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cool   thought i did.... have safe trip man
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Drifter49 on January 15, 2018, 01:12:35 PM
Although I wonít be home, Iím rooting for this to put Paris in the double digit category for the season.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 15, 2018, 01:19:15 PM
Although I wonít be home, Iím rooting for this to put Paris in the double digit category for the season.


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Safe travels in the snow!
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Coach B on January 15, 2018, 01:19:48 PM
The heavier rates and the slowing down of the front really increase the potential for a pocket of 3-5 inches in some of the same areas hit hardest by the last winter storm...
Looks like the rich may get richer. I'm also concerned that some of the meso models are indicating a relative minimum area of snow in s mid TN where they got blanked with the last one. The 3k and 12k nam, the wrf-arw and wrc-NMM all have it. At the moment I'm hugging the rgem and hrdps which are solid down this way.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: snowdog on January 15, 2018, 01:24:14 PM
15z SREF a little more qpf for BNA. Each runs keeps going up a little more.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Cody on January 15, 2018, 01:26:15 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180115/f00ea7ee05a165613585d5b530a497d2.jpg)

Snow has started to fall in Martin.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Drifter49 on January 15, 2018, 01:28:23 PM
From Jackson to Friendship, the temp went from 41 to 35. Looks like snow up ahead.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Curt on January 15, 2018, 01:28:31 PM
15z SREF a little more qpf for BNA. Each runs keeps going up a little more.
Yep Memphis now has a total mean qpf of .20 and a snow mean at 2.5
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2018, 01:37:44 PM
Yep Memphis now has a total mean qpf of .20 and a snow mean at 2.5
at what ratios curt... 15  to 1?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: spanarkle08 on January 15, 2018, 01:40:08 PM
From Jackson to Friendship, the temp went from 41 to 35. Looks like snow up ahead.


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43 in South Carroll Co.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Drifter49 on January 15, 2018, 01:43:16 PM
Found the snow in Dyersburg


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: RobD on January 15, 2018, 01:46:55 PM
So the band that is hitting NW TN right now: that's not "it" is it? I thought the models looked like it was coming up via LA & MS?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Eric on January 15, 2018, 01:48:16 PM
So the band that is hitting NW TN right now: that's not "it" is it? I thought the models looked like it was coming up via LA & MS?

No.  The southern stream is progged to fill in as the afternoon progresses.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Tamlin on January 15, 2018, 01:59:26 PM
And the 18z NAM goes BOOOOM.

Widespread 2-4" in west TN at 10:1 ratios.

If the GFS follows suit, I would think all of West TN is now in play for a warning criteria event.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: bugalou on January 15, 2018, 02:05:59 PM
No.  The southern stream is progged to fill in as the afternoon progresses.

This exactly.  What you see on the radar is not the main event.  Whats you see on radar is what we would expect with a standard clipper.  The whole reason this event is enhanced is because of the southern stream's involvement.

Winds just shifted down my way to the NW.  Temps should be heading down down down in the next few hours.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: kristin on January 15, 2018, 02:09:21 PM
I havenít seen anything exciting for the plateau..  Any chance it could over perform more than 2 inches here?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: ChrisPC on January 15, 2018, 02:16:54 PM
This exactly.  What you see on the radar is not the main event.  Whats you see on radar is what we would expect with a standard clipper.  The whole reason this event is enhanced is because of the southern stream's involvement.
So itís like a clipper and Miller A put together?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Michael on January 15, 2018, 02:19:19 PM
I havenít seen anything exciting for the plateau..  Any chance it could over perform more than 2 inches here?

Possibly. The Plateau usually benefits from orographic lifting. Plus, ratios should be over 10:1, so you may squeeze out 3-4". Especially if you're in the Northern Plateau Region.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: bugalou on January 15, 2018, 02:28:02 PM
So itís like a clipper and Miller A put together?

No, there is no gulf low involved.  Its just a nice chunk of gulf moisture over running the clipper and getting lift that way.  The new GOES 16 sat visible shows the chunk of moisture coming in from Texas.  Once the front gets a little further south and the lift gets up that high the snow will start popping on radar.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/GOES16_CONUS.php
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 15, 2018, 02:30:18 PM
And the 18z NAM goes BOOOOM.

Widespread 2-4" in west TN at 10:1 ratios.

If the GFS follows suit, I would think all of West TN is now in play for a warning criteria event.

Again, there is an almost convective nature to the precipitation field as it comes through west and middle TN.  This is a strong cold front after all.  I wonder if anyone will see the holy grail of winter weather--thundersnow? 

I also noticed that each run seems to show more snow showers after the frontal passage, which makes perfect sense.  There could even be a little help from Lake Michigan.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Eric on January 15, 2018, 02:31:16 PM
The southern stream represents the jet stream.  TN sits in the favored entrance region of the jet stream...an area where the air rises.  Air rises, it cools, then condensates.  There's no low pressure.  Just some energy coming down from the north interacting with the southern leg of the jet stream.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: southeastbutter on January 15, 2018, 02:34:06 PM
This may have been discussed previously, but is this event similar to the Christmas storm in 2010 or was that a southern slider? That thing over performed like a champion.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 15, 2018, 02:34:47 PM
MRX AFD:

Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
328 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday night)...A deep trough and
associated frontal boundary will move through the TN Valley
tonight through Tuesday. Low level flow out of the north and mid
level flow out of the SW will provide plenty of moisture and cold
air for snow to fall. Models have been fairly consistent with the
timing...bringing light scattered snow showers to the plateau
around sunrise Tuesday...and slowly moving to the east through the
morning...reaching the east TN mountains by noon. Showers should
increase slightly in intensity and coverage through the day...with
the heaviest showers expected in the afternoon...between 2 and 7
pm...along with the best upper level divergence. The axis of the
trough will move through the TN Valley through the
afternoon...with mid and upper level flow transitioning to out of
the NW. By Tuesday evening...showers should weaken in
intensity...with only flurries expected through the early morning
Wednesday. Overall snowfall accumulation totals will range from
1-2 inches across areas south of I40...with 2-3 inches expected in
areas north of I40...except in the higher elevations in SW VA and
east TN where 3-4 inches or locally higher amounts could be
expected.
A Winter Weather Advisory will continue for the entire
area through the overnight hours on Tuesday night.

Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: dwagner88 on January 15, 2018, 02:48:43 PM
This may have been discussed previously, but is this event similar to the Christmas storm in 2010 or was that a southern slider? That thing over performed like a champion.
Unfortunately no. That system was fully phased. This is more like an ďanafrontĒ. Fair warning: these almost never work in the southern valley. Iím not expecting much in our area.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 15, 2018, 02:53:21 PM
Unfortunately no. That system was fully phased. This is more like an ďanafrontĒ. Fair warning: these almost never work in the southern valley. Iím not expecting much in our area.

Yeah Chatt might be the only area to get the shaft
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 15, 2018, 03:11:02 PM
MEG AFD:

Strong lift will persist through the
overnight hours into Tuesday morning across most of the forecast
area with a band of heavier snow likely to expected just south of
the I-40 corridor. There have been some indications by the hi-res
models that this band could shift slightly farther north which
would result in more accumulations in the Memphis area.

In general, accumulations of 1-3" are expected across the Mid-
South with amounts approaching 4 inches in the heavier snow band.
Fortunately, no ice or sleet is anticipated with this system as
precipitation will be all snow.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Volduff64 on January 15, 2018, 03:12:32 PM
RAP and HRRR continue to increase totals each hour. I donít know what to think. If chatty gets the shaft, we might get the gold mine
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Susan on January 15, 2018, 03:15:15 PM
Quote
000
FXUS64 KOHX 152106
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
306 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...

It`s almost warm out there today!  Temperatures have soared into the
mid 40s for many, but that`s quickly going to come crashing down as
our next winter weather maker is right on our doorstep at forecast
time.  Latest obs at CKV are showing temperatures above freezing,
but I don`t think that`s going to make much of a difference as we
can get snow to the ground when it`s 37-38 degrees. The radar is
already showing returns in far southern KY and they`re in the low
30s, so as this precipitation on the radar pushes into our far NW
counties, look for this to be all snow. In fact, Dover is already
seeing some snowfall. For everyone else across the mid-state, by the
time the precipitation gets to you, temperatures will be well within
range to get all snow, so no mix is expected for anyone.  As this
front slowly pushes southward, snows will begin to fall, and
expectations are for the snow to last into a good portion of the
day on Tuesday. Snowfall totals will average 1-2 inches for most
of Middle TN, however, there are a few spots that are likely to
reach the 2-3 inch range.
Specifically, we expect our far NW
counties and the Cumberland Plateau to reach those numbers.

This could end up being a moderately impactful event.  Temperatures
will fall below freezing tonight by 9 pm and without any sun and
temperatures not expected to rise above freezing until some time on
Thursday, rural and less traveled road may experience snow cover for
an extended period of time.

Speaking of being below freezing, the arctic air mass that will move
in behind tonight`s frontal passage is going to be a VERY cold one.
Temperatures will fall into the mid to low single digits Tuesday
night and there`s the potential for the mercury to fall towards 0
degrees, especially for our northern counties and the Cumberland
Plateau due to the snowpack on the ground.  More single digits can
be expected for Thursday morning, as well.

On top of all that, Wind Chills might very well fall below freezing
Tuesday night, especially on the Cumberland Plateau.  While winds
won`t be whipping or anything like that, even a 5-8 mph wind will
cause below zero Wind Chills, so an advisory may become necessary
with future forecast packages.

Once we can get past Wednesday, things will begin to improve.
Temperatures will recover -- 40s by Friday and into the 50s this
weekend.  However, with the warmth comes the potential for more
precipitation, as we all know.  Models are in fairly good agreement
about another system moving through Middle TN Sunday night.  We may
be a little high on the PoPs that far out as things can change, but
there does look like a good chance for rain by the end of the
weekend. Good news? It should be all liquid.

&&
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Curt on January 15, 2018, 03:19:08 PM
(http://i64.tinypic.com/nodes3.gif)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Susan on January 15, 2018, 03:19:51 PM
Quote
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Nashville TN
312 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

...Snow will impact travel across Middle Tennessee late this
afternoon through Tuesday...

.A cold front will move through the area late this afternoon and
this evening, followed by periods of snow. Snowfall will average
around 1 to 2 inches across Middle Tennessee, with some higher
amounts around 3 inches possible, especially across the northern
and central Plateau as well as far northwestern areas of the mid
state.


Along with the snow, temperatures will plummet into the teens
overnight, and will not rise much at all on Tuesday. The wind will
not be too terribly strong, but it will be enough to keep wind
chills in the single digits late tonight through Tuesday. Some sub
zero wind chills might even be possible across northwest Middle
Tennessee toward sunrise.

Roads will become snow covered and slippery, and with a
continuation of cold temperatures, the snow will stick around for
a couple of days.

TNZ008>010-027>031-056>060-062-093-094-161100-
/O.CON.KOHX.WW.Y.0003.180116T0300Z-180116T2100Z/
Sumner-Macon-Clay-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-Perry-
Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-Rutherford-Wayne-Lawrence-
Including the cities of Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville,
Lafayette, Celina, Nashville, Lebanon, Mount Juliet, Hartsville,
Carthage, South Carthage, Gordonsville, Gainesboro, Linden,
Lobelville, Centerville, Hohenwald, Franklin, Brentwood,
Columbia, Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Clifton, Waynesboro,
and Lawrenceburg

312 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Periods of snow. Plan on slippery road conditions,
  including during the morning commute on Tuesday. Total snow
  accumulations of 1 to two inches are expected.

* WHERE...North central through southwestern Middle Tennessee

* WHEN...9 PM today to 3 PM Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Look for reduced visibilities at times.
  Cold wind chills as low as 5 degrees will cause frostbite in as
  little as 45 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: bugalou on January 15, 2018, 03:23:43 PM
The southern stream represents the jet stream.  TN sits in the favored entrance region of the jet stream...an area where the air rises.  Air rises, it cools, then condensates.  There's no low pressure.  Just some energy coming down from the north interacting with the southern leg of the jet stream.

Yep and if you go back to that GOES 16 visible image you can see the southern jet in the pacific, fades a bit over Mexico and then picks back up in Texas into the midsouth.

Looks like the first bits of our system are starting to pop on radar.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: RobD on January 15, 2018, 03:26:22 PM
Just heard of a flight cancellation coming into BNA. The youngest is supposed to be flying home from CHS to BNA via Houston, and as she was getting ready to board they paged her to tell her that they cancelled the flight from Houston to BNA. They said it was because of the weather.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Michael on January 15, 2018, 03:40:42 PM
MRX AFD:

The last 2-3 runs of NAM 3k have trended the heavier totals SE with each run. At this pace, we'll add 1" to those totals. I'm currently in the above mentioned 2"-3".
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Hank W on January 15, 2018, 03:53:51 PM
HRRR looks really good for West TN. Widespread totals of 0.2+ QPF with 0.3 slipping in near the MS river and KY Lake and still a little light snow at the end of the run. 10:1 ratios displaying 2-3" with locally higher amounts. With good ratios, this could be really nice!
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: shaft311 on January 15, 2018, 04:35:42 PM
Yeah Chatt might be the only area to get the shaft
?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Michael on January 15, 2018, 04:35:52 PM
MRX just revised totals...

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180115/89a48a4eee53267d0eef1823cc5dc8fe.jpg)


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2018, 04:58:23 PM
finally starting to see some development back in sw arkansas... texarkana  region... keep eye on that region were we start to get some southern stream influence ...
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 15, 2018, 04:58:44 PM
MRX just revised totals...

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180115/89a48a4eee53267d0eef1823cc5dc8fe.jpg)


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That looks reasonable; however, most models show a bit heavier amounts also just south of Knoxville in parts of Blount and Sevier Counties.  Strange they give more snow to Knoxville than Gatlinburg. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: harlequin on January 15, 2018, 05:18:21 PM
Quote
@NWSMemphis
 5m5 minutes ago
More
Reviewing the latest high resolution model data and 18z global models to determine whether snow amounts may need to be increased north along I-40 corridor. Stay tuned for the latest forecast info through this evening!

That'd be nice.

As pointed out in chat, a few 4-5" reports have come in from along the AR/MO border. Some places will likely be similarly lucky tonight/tmrw morning.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: StormNine on January 15, 2018, 05:48:10 PM
That'd be nice.

As pointed out in chat, a few 4-5" reports have come in from along the AR/MO border. Some places will likely be similarly lucky tonight/tmrw morning.

There is a 5 inch amount that just appeared between Poplar Bluff and New Madrid, MO.  Here in Western KY I have about 1.5 inches and there are several 1.5 to 3-inch amounts reported in Kentucky and still at least a few hours to go for most of us.  It has been falling here in Hopkinsville at a steady moderate clip for about 4 hours now. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Curt on January 15, 2018, 06:02:49 PM
Had a little light snow on the drive home.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: marjl21 on January 15, 2018, 06:25:40 PM
Iím driving in on I 40 and itís snowing hard enough at Canada Road that itís starting to accumulate on the road. Mainly just swirling around.

Snowing enough at Wolfchase you have to use your wipers.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 15, 2018, 06:29:04 PM
Had a little light snow on the drive home.

Got home just in time to hear WMC say they're going with 1-2" ::rofl::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: bugalou on January 15, 2018, 06:30:41 PM
Checking latest models as well as radar, this has the potential to be a nice surprise for a few of us in the west.  Things are really starting to light up on radar.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2018, 06:31:10 PM
Got home just in time to hear WMC say they're going with 1-2" ::rofl::
thats actually pretty good from them  thats whats sad...
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: ultra mag on January 15, 2018, 06:36:36 PM
just started snowing here
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: bugalou on January 15, 2018, 06:39:51 PM
It's actually sleeting here at the moment.  I am sure it will not last long.

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Tamlin on January 15, 2018, 06:40:52 PM
Got home just in time to hear WMC say they're going with 1-2" ::rofl::

Graphics guy was off today so they just used the same one from Friday.

(To be fair, they may be right.)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2018, 06:42:26 PM
Graphics guy was off today so they just used the same one from Friday.

(To be fair, they may be right.)
really doubt it to be honest   thats pretty consrvative
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: bugalou on January 15, 2018, 06:46:49 PM
really doubt it to be honest   thats pretty consrvative
At this point having the high end at 2" has pretty much no support.

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: bugalou on January 15, 2018, 06:48:29 PM
Changed over to snow here already.

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 15, 2018, 06:48:36 PM
QPF is substantial for SW TN along the 40 corridor. Weaker the more east you go.

Predictions:
Memphis: 3"
Nashville: 1.5"
Knoxville: 1"
Chattanooga: 0.5"
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2018, 06:56:03 PM
light snow  now starting here
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Clint on January 15, 2018, 07:00:07 PM
I've currently got light sleet/snow mix.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: milodog1 on January 15, 2018, 07:04:28 PM
Almost looks like a connective line moving through Ky.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180116/615157a2fc31f9bf030195dab071ddf7.jpg)


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 15, 2018, 07:10:27 PM
Almost looks like a connective line moving through Ky.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180116/615157a2fc31f9bf030195dab071ddf7.jpg)


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I don't know if it's been posted yet, but western KY is now under a winter storm warning.  Snow area has been pretty stationary this evening, and some 5 inch amounts have been reported.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: bugalou on January 15, 2018, 07:14:37 PM
Sleet snow mix here.  Things are evaporating and cooling still.  Wet bulb is under 32 already and the relative humidity is almost 70 percent so it wont be long before we are below freezing all the way to the ground and getting all the shown precipitation.

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 15, 2018, 07:15:54 PM
I can vouch for the high ratios. Light snow started and within 5 minutes roads and everything not already covered had a heavy dusting. If you can get decent rates it will pile up quick.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2018, 07:16:50 PM
returns back in ne texas are starting to explode.....
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 15, 2018, 07:17:16 PM
Had a little light snow on the drive home.
Just got home and the plows are out there... Waiting.  Had light snow the entire drive. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: collinsk on January 15, 2018, 07:17:41 PM
I need it to head to southern middle tn!!
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: snowdog on January 15, 2018, 07:23:06 PM
21z SREF mean...

BNA 0.17"
MEM 0.22"
KNOX 0.16"
HOP 0.19"
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Curt on January 15, 2018, 07:28:40 PM
Canít get chat to work in iPhone what am i missing here?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: bugalou on January 15, 2018, 07:29:51 PM
Forgive me ahead of time, this is a completely unscientific statement mainly based on living in this area for most of my life.  Thus far this is looking to perhaps be a bigger event in at least portions of the west then we were expecting.  Everything thus far is looking very promising.  Radar trends show that perhaps this may be a  slightly longer duration storm by a couple hours if things continue to bloom.  I am almost certain the warning will spread north and east.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 15, 2018, 07:30:10 PM
Looking at an HRRR animation of snow accumulation, it looks like areas in Tennessee south of the Land Between the Lakes area could benefit from some lake enhanced snow off of Lake Barkley and Kentucky Lake. Pretty cool if it happens.

Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 15, 2018, 07:32:19 PM
Canít get chat to work in iPhone what am i missing here?

Need link? http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 15, 2018, 07:34:13 PM
Forgive me ahead of time, this is a completely unscientific statement mainly based on living in this area for most of my life.  Thus far this is looking to perhaps be a bigger event in at least portions of the west then we were expecting.  Everything thus far is looking very promising.  Radar trends show that perhaps this may be a  slightly longer duration storm by a couple hours if things continue to bloom.  I am almost certain the warning will spread north and east.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk
I've been thinking the same thing.  I have nothing else to really back this but it feels like a large event to me. I could definitely be wrong but....


BTW, I realize that I was cliff-diving just a mere few days ago. 
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 15, 2018, 07:36:08 PM
I can vouch for the high ratios. Light snow started and within 5 minutes roads and everything not already covered had a heavy dusting. If you can get decent rates it will pile up quick.  ::snowman::

I really have not been this excited for snow since January 20th, 2016. UT canceled that day in wake of a very similar system that produced 4" in Knoxville. I miss the thrill of snow coming during the day!
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 15, 2018, 07:36:54 PM
I've been thinking the same thing.  I have nothing else to really back this but it feels like a large event to me.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

For western areas, at least, certainly not your average clipper snow if the HRRR verifies.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 15, 2018, 07:40:05 PM
Here's to a statewide surprise  ::fingerscrossed::

And to people staying safe on the roads. Just because it's powder doesn't mean you should take your chances...
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: MemphisJDJ on January 15, 2018, 07:40:15 PM
MEG just pulled the trigger
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 15, 2018, 07:41:50 PM
WSW for much of W TN now.... Includes Memphis

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 15, 2018, 07:53:11 PM
I am loving the radar trends. I think most of us in middle TN are in for a fun night. ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Tornado 73 on January 15, 2018, 07:57:26 PM
21z SREF mean...

BNA 0.17"
MEM 0.22"
KNOX 0.16"
HOP 0.19"

What does it show for JBR? Thanks
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 15, 2018, 07:58:40 PM
I need it to head to southern middle tn!!

Where in southern Middle are you, collinsk?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Eric on January 15, 2018, 08:00:00 PM
OHX sticking with WWA.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: ash3211 on January 15, 2018, 08:06:15 PM
I see Dyersburg is not under the new WSW, anyone know why or will they be sticking with the WWA for here? Thanks!!
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: snowdog on January 15, 2018, 08:07:17 PM
OHX sticking with WWA.

Bold move Cotton, lets see if it pays off....

Post Merge: January 15, 2018, 08:07:56 PM
JBR 21z SREF mean, 0.13"
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 15, 2018, 08:09:39 PM
So, are we about done saying this is looking "anemic"?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 15, 2018, 08:12:59 PM
Canít get chat to work in iPhone what am i missing here?
Chat will not work on IPhone. Never has for me. Driving me insane because not around computer except at night.  ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Eric on January 15, 2018, 08:14:36 PM
Bold move Cotton, lets see if it pays off....

Post Merge: January 15, 2018, 08:07:56 PM
JBR 21z SREF mean, 0.13"

They admitted that the NW counties might get close to WSW but since most of the area is progged for 1-3", they're holding steady.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 15, 2018, 08:15:15 PM
Chat will not work on IPhone. Never has for me. Driving me insane because not around computer except at night.  ::bangingheadintowall::
You try it in Chrome instead of Safari?  I have a Droid but my wife has an iPhone and they browser drives me nuts.  I can get a lot more things to work in Chrome. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mudaddict on January 15, 2018, 08:17:31 PM
So, are we about done saying this is looking "anemic"?

I was referring to a specific models past few runs for areas outside of West tn...if .05 isn't anemic compared to West not sure what is....but from now on I will only comment on the  runs that show amazing qpf.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: bugalou on January 15, 2018, 08:17:34 PM
You try it in Chrome instead of Safari?  I have a Droid but my wife has an iPhone and they browser drives me nuts.  I can get a lot more things to work in Chrome. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Chrome and safari use the same rendering engine on iphone (safari's engine) because of rules in place by apple.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Thundersnow on January 15, 2018, 08:18:29 PM
Chat ďusedĒ to work for me in Safari on IPhone, but it hasnít worked lately.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Eric on January 15, 2018, 08:20:25 PM
MTSU closed.  That's a 12 seed upsetting a 5 seed in the Tourney.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: kristin on January 15, 2018, 08:20:52 PM
Iím using an iPhone and chat works for me using Safari.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 15, 2018, 08:20:59 PM
Down to 29.7 here--seems to be dropping quicker than forecast. 

I'm not anything more than a weather hobbiest, but it looks like 'jet-streaks' or enhanced areas of lift are helping boost snow intesity and totals this evening.  Perhaps the rest of TN can have a streaker or two tomorrow to help us out.  ;D

Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Thundersnow on January 15, 2018, 08:20:59 PM
Bright banding south of Paducah on radar. Someoneís going to get nice totals out of this.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 15, 2018, 08:21:42 PM
Wow, wonder if U of Mem and Vandy are out. UT will very likely not close. Takes several for them to shut everything down here.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: bossfan2000 on January 15, 2018, 08:23:08 PM
It works fine on my iPhone in Chrome.

Chat ďusedĒ to work for me in Safari on IPhone, but it hasnít worked lately.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 15, 2018, 08:26:14 PM
Nice steady light snow falling. Looks like I'm all lonely with my WWA over this way. MEG put me timeout. I'm really pulling for everyone. There is a lot on our side this time. Let's bring it home from Memphis to Knoxville.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: WXHD on January 15, 2018, 08:26:33 PM
The chat function is funked.

I'm sure the team will get right on it!  ::rofl:: ::rofl::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: milodog1 on January 15, 2018, 08:28:04 PM
0z NAM came back strong for E Tennessee after falling off on the 18.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: cgauxknox on January 15, 2018, 08:34:21 PM
All of the community colleges in East TN are now closed for tomorrow, which is quite rare.  People are taking this seriously and obviously expecting this to be a real event.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 15, 2018, 08:38:30 PM
0z NAM came back strong for E Tennessee after falling off on the 18.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yep, sure is.  Looking much better. I think the front slowing down is allowing it tap into more moisture than models saw 24-48 hours ago.   
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 15, 2018, 08:39:31 PM
All of the community colleges in East TN are now closed for tomorrow, which is quite rare.  People are taking this seriously and obviously expecting this to be a real event.

Come on UT. I don't wanna go to my 8am  ::rofl::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Tornado 73 on January 15, 2018, 08:42:00 PM
Nice steady light snow falling. Looks like I'm all lonely with my WWA over this way. MEG put me timeout. I'm really pulling for everyone. There is a lot on our side this time. Let's bring it home from Memphis to Knoxville.
I am right there with you in Jbr
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 15, 2018, 08:44:01 PM
Thought this would be interesting to share. NOAA thinks Knoxville has a 95% chance of exceeding an inch of snowfall. This is the best shot we've had here since 2016.

[attachimg=1]

Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: cliftown04 on January 15, 2018, 08:48:39 PM
If this thing splits at bath springs tonight Iím out for the winter. I canít take two times in one week!  That line of precip is about as pretty and solid as Iíve seen in awhile!
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: tnwthrwtchr on January 15, 2018, 08:51:15 PM
The snow is picking up here in Jackson.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dave R on January 15, 2018, 08:51:51 PM
If you use Safari on iPhone and already have Chat open in a tab somewhere already, it will appear as if clicking the Chat link isnít doing anything. FWIW.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 15, 2018, 08:53:01 PM
It is refreshing to see that in our modern computer age, weather surprises can still happen.  Western KY, like most of us, only expected about 1-2 inches of snow from this system.  Now they have a 6+ inches of snow in some areas, and its still snowing.  Who knows how much they will end up with.  Good to know we don't know everything with our fancy weather models.

Looking at the radar and satellite, this front seems to be tapping into a good moisture stream from the Gulf.  Showers breaking out in Texas and being drawn northeast toward the cold front. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: dwagner88 on January 15, 2018, 08:59:11 PM
It is refreshing to see that in our modern computer age, weather surprises can still happen.  Western KY, like most of us, only expected about 1-2 inches of snow from this system.  Now they have a 6+ inches of snow in some areas, and its still snowing.  Who knows how much they will end up with.  Good to know we don't know everything with our fancy weather models.

Looking at the radar and satellite, this front seems to be tapping into a good moisture stream from the Gulf.  Showers breaking out in Texas and being drawn northeast toward the cold front.
This isn't even the first such event this season. I went to work in Ducktown December 8 with a forecast for a 20% chance of flurries. Wound up with 7 inches.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 15, 2018, 09:00:15 PM
The front seems to be rolling in. Winds are starting to gust and snow has picked up a tad. We already have a solid .5
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: komosgj on January 15, 2018, 09:05:34 PM
When I click the chat link it takes me to a blank white page that just says messenger and shows an icon on either side.  I am using Chrome and even tried Firefox and Explorer.  I also tried on my Android.  Anyone else having this issue?  Any fixes? 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Weazel on January 15, 2018, 09:14:26 PM
Sleet/Snow starting to fall in the Pinewood community of Hickman County! 👍🏻
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Eric on January 15, 2018, 09:14:43 PM
OHX pulled the trigger on a WSW for Montgomery, Stewart, Humphreys, Houston, Robertson.  Totals will get nudged up a tick across the board due to earlier than anticipated snow arrival.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: bluegrasspr on January 15, 2018, 09:15:38 PM
When I click the chat link it takes me to a blank white page that just says messenger and shows an icon on either side.  I am using Chrome and even tried Firefox and Explorer.  I also tried on my Android.  Anyone else having this issue?  Any fixes?

If the right icon is a wrench, try clicking on it and making  sure both options that show up are set to "on." That might help.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: komosgj on January 15, 2018, 09:19:03 PM
If the right icon is a wrench, try clicking on it and making  sure both options that show up are set to "on." That might help.

It is a wrench, switched both options and no luck.  Thanks anyway!
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: micahp on January 15, 2018, 09:20:47 PM
When I click the chat link it takes me to a blank white page that just says messenger and shows an icon on either side.  I am using Chrome and even tried Firefox and Explorer.  I also tried on my Android.  Anyone else having this issue?  Any fixes?


If your on a computer and using Chrome. Right Click, then click on Inspect. Then refresh the chat window. That works for me.

Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 15, 2018, 09:21:06 PM
Nice steady light snow falling. Looks like I'm all lonely with my WWA over this way. MEG put me timeout. I'm really pulling for everyone. There is a lot on our side this time. Let's bring it home from Memphis to Knoxville.
Thanks, Dyer!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 15, 2018, 09:21:46 PM
Everything about chat works for me except I cant send message. Type it and send it but does not show up and no one else sees it either.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2018, 09:28:45 PM
those returns back over in eastern arkansas  just keep on getting heavier ...think chat room has crashed
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Eric on January 15, 2018, 09:29:37 PM
those returns back over in eastern arkansas  just keep on getting heavier ...think chat room has crashed

Still up for me.  I just kicked you.


J/K...
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 15, 2018, 09:36:25 PM
Really a little surprised at snow rates. It does not seem like it is snowing as hard as radar indicates. Just an observation.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: bugalou on January 15, 2018, 09:42:03 PM
Really a little surprised at snow rates. It does not seem like it is snowing as hard as radar indicates. Just an observation.
Probably the result of good ratios. We don't often see greater than 10:1 down this far south often.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2018, 09:43:32 PM
Really a little surprised at snow rates. It does not seem like it is snowing as hard as radar indicates. Just an observation.
heaviest snow hasnt gotten here yet... look at radar returns west impressive
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 15, 2018, 09:44:51 PM
Gotta crash for the night.  Good luck and happy snow watching to all those out west.  Just be sure to send a little our way tomorrow.   ;)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: StormNine on January 15, 2018, 09:48:31 PM
Some new measurements for West KY and SE MO:

Dexter, MO: 6 inches (could be factoring in some of the previous event)
East Prairie, MO:  11 inches combined with Friday's event (probably 6-8 with this one)
Hopkinsville, KY: 3.5 inches
Howardsville, MO (right by the KY Bend): 6 inches
Lewisport, KY: 5.5 inches
Mayfield, KY: Getting reports of around 5 inches of new snow

There are a lot of other measurements but they were from snow depth and it is hard to say whether the previous event contaminated it or not because we didn't measure it. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Beth on January 15, 2018, 09:49:20 PM
Everything about chat works for me except I cant send message. Type it and send it but does not show up and no one else sees it either.
I was having the same issues with chat and
Susan posted a link during the last snow this past Thursday and it worked.  I donít know how to post a link but maybe she will see this and post it for you and others.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2018, 09:51:21 PM
I was having the same issues with chat and
Susan posted a link during the last snow this past Thursday and it worked.  I donít know how to post a link but maybe she will see this and post it for you and others.
server is now over loaded....
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Susan on January 15, 2018, 09:53:16 PM
http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

Hope it works!
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Eric on January 15, 2018, 09:55:04 PM
server is now over loaded....

Still working for me.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Beth on January 15, 2018, 09:55:22 PM
http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

Hope it works!
Thanks Susan! It worked for me the other night. I just leave open on my tablet now.!  Happy Snow time!  ::snowman::

Post Merge: January 15, 2018, 09:56:24 PM
Still working for me too! 😊
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: StormNine on January 15, 2018, 09:58:00 PM
Dover, TN reports 1 inch of snow.  Snow is now entering the mid-state. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 15, 2018, 10:00:13 PM
Thanks Susan! It worked for me the other night. I just leave open on my tablet now.!  Happy Snow time!  ::snowman::

Post Merge: January 15, 2018, 09:56:24 PM
Still working for me too! 😊
nada  for me    maybe later guess.... ;)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 15, 2018, 10:01:19 PM
Snow is starting to fall. Here we go.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 15, 2018, 10:04:47 PM
I was having the same issues with chat and
Susan posted a link during the last snow this past Thursday and it worked.  I donít know how to post a link but maybe she will see this and post it for you and others.
Talking about with an iPhone. It will not work with ah iPhone.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: WXHD on January 15, 2018, 10:14:33 PM
Went outside to some sleet, snow started falling. And it was stupidly cold compared to the 40's we went through today. This is fun.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Beth on January 15, 2018, 10:14:43 PM
Talking about with an iPhone. It will not work with ah iPhone.
I have a Ipad and the link Susan posted let me in. I thought you made it in.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BALLPARK on January 15, 2018, 10:30:50 PM
I measured tonight and we had a total of 11 inches on the ground including this weekend.  ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Skillsweather on January 15, 2018, 10:39:49 PM
very light flurries here already. You have to look in the fog lights to see them but they are there.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Susan on January 15, 2018, 10:42:58 PM
Talking about with an iPhone. It will not work with ah iPhone.

I use the posted link with Safari on my iPhone and it works.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 15, 2018, 10:58:01 PM
I use the posted link with Safari on my iPhone and it works.
Did you type a message ?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 15, 2018, 11:05:15 PM
Got right at 1 inch now, starting to come down good again. I hope to exceed the last storm, it should be fun watching it play out. Good Luck all. ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Volduff64 on January 15, 2018, 11:09:20 PM
To me the radar reminds me of a summer system, where the stronger band steals from the smaller one and strengthens.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Curt on January 15, 2018, 11:17:26 PM
Man that stuff south of Little Rock and back towards Texarkana is the real deal. Should swing through between 3 and 7am
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: CarrKee on January 15, 2018, 11:49:21 PM
Im new on here. I sure hope it does snow more than what models show!!! Im seeing 1 to 2 inches in my area. I am seeing that models are not exactly in agreement. That could have changed since I last saw.  :) :) :) ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 16, 2018, 12:23:27 AM
Im new on here. I sure hope it does snow more than what models show!!! Im seeing 1 to 2 inches in my area. I am seeing that models are not exactly in agreement. That could have changed since I last saw.  :) :) :) ::snowman:: ::snowman::

Welcome to the forum! Could you tell us where in TN you are?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: harlequin on January 16, 2018, 12:30:57 AM
MEG late evening update:

Quote
Busy night across the Mid South with a winter storm bearing down
on the area. Bands of snow have become established across
northeast Arkansas into northwest Tennessee and further south from
Memphis westward along I-40 as of discussion time. Latest high res
and operational model guidance continues to suggest that better
banding will set up along a 50-75 mile wide area along the I-40
corridor and then southwestward across northwest Mississippi into
east Arkansas, mainly south of I-40. Latest models output between
0.25" to 0.50" of QPF between 06-14z across these locations.
Arctic air continues to surge south and should result in increased
snow ratios after midnight on the order of 15/20:1. This should
support a solid 2-4 inches of snow across the aforementioned
areas, with a few localized locations reaching 6 inches or more.
As temperatures fall into the teens to lower 20s over the next few
hours, roadways should become snow covered and hazardous,
regardless of the treatment applied. Please use extreme caution if
you must travel tonight and Tuesday, and if possible avoid travel
all together outside of emergencies. Winter storm warnings are now
in effect across these locations with winter weather advisories to
the northwest and southeast portions of the forecast area.

Temperatures should remain very cold late tonight into Tuesday
with wind chill values dropping to zero or below along and north
of I-40. A wind chill advisory will remain in effect through at
least noon in these locations. Snow should taper off by 9 am along
and west of the Mississippi River and by early afternoon across
eastern portions of the forecast area, including near the
Tennessee River in west Tennessee and across northeast
Mississippi. High temperatures should remain in the teens to lower
20s which will keep roads icy and hazardous through the day and
into tomorrow night and Wednesday. Additional wind chill
advisories will likely be needed Tuesday night into Wednesday
across the entire area.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 16, 2018, 12:47:06 AM
Really looking good back to the north and west. Let the SNOW TIMES ROLL!!!!!! ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 16, 2018, 12:47:47 AM
Moderate snow and 17 degrees here. Really starting to pile up in the last few minutes. Looks like the I40 corridor is about to cash in big time. Good luck to all.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 16, 2018, 01:03:03 AM
Moderate snow and 17 degrees here. Really starting to pile up in the last few minutes. Looks like the I40 corridor is about to cash in big time. Good luck to all.

What brought you to Moscow?  ;D
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 16, 2018, 01:14:16 AM
What brought you to Moscow?  ;D
Not Moscow. Just a flashback to the 70s.  ::whistling::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 16, 2018, 01:17:59 AM
Not Moscow. Just a flashback to the 70s.  ::whistling::

Curse me young age
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 16, 2018, 02:40:06 AM
I 40 corridor fixing get creamed soon wow at radar
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 16, 2018, 03:28:32 AM
Never again ......
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Scot on January 16, 2018, 03:34:29 AM
Never again ......
Uh oh.  Bust?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: bellatrixr on January 16, 2018, 03:49:51 AM
A trying-to-learn question: Why is this flash freezing event performing better than Friday's? Is the main (among many others) reason the track of the low?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: MSR041933 on January 16, 2018, 04:06:01 AM
Is it ever going to get here ?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 16, 2018, 04:15:09 AM
It is pouring the snow here. The last few frames on radar appear to show the entire line growing in size and intensity.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Tamlin on January 16, 2018, 04:23:05 AM
We've been in moderate snow since around 3 am. Looks to be another 2 1/2 ... maybe 3 hours left of it. It will end up being a nice snow, but it will have to really intensify or really slow down to reach warning criteria.

Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JHart on January 16, 2018, 04:27:44 AM
Winter Storm Inga is giving Nashville the Finga.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 16, 2018, 04:29:10 AM
Doing well in Montgomery County. Hoping to get a little back building to our west. Pulling for Nashville and points south to get in the action. ::popcorn:: ::yum:: ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Skillsweather on January 16, 2018, 04:30:49 AM
Yawn this sucks. Hopefully magic can happen asap.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 16, 2018, 04:33:29 AM
I go so much snow. I donít know what is new from the old .... this insane. Please stop snowing. Now ....
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 16, 2018, 04:34:46 AM
BG is nearing 4". They ALWAYS do well when it comes to snow. Always.

Post Merge: January 16, 2018, 04:44:20 AM
Picture from WKRN shows that the roads are completely snow covered here in Westmoreland.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Skillsweather on January 16, 2018, 04:58:03 AM
You can see the east shift now with the snow that should start getting us all in on the action but looks like it will push east faster through us as well. Maybe a good 2-4hr snow for most now.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 16, 2018, 05:00:04 AM
Itís. Snowing so hard here. Canít see.... just went out I measured  8 half inches in my back yard. Thatís combined from both storms . Hurry up spring please
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 16, 2018, 05:00:33 AM
OHX mentioned that if this snow band continues to move at a snail's pace, that they may have to extend the Winter Storm Warnings further eastward.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 16, 2018, 05:02:20 AM
Doing well here, going to get out in hour or so and take a measurement. ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 16, 2018, 05:05:15 AM
Doing well here, going to get out in hour or so and take a measurement. ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

Another band has formed to your west too. So you aren't done yet! Neither is Hopkinsville.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 16, 2018, 05:07:28 AM
Another band has formed to your west too. So you aren't done yet! Neither is Hopkinsville.
I seen that Charles! ::guitar:: ::yum:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 16, 2018, 05:09:51 AM
Well this one ranks way up the list for over performers on this end. Gonna guess we are scaring 5 inches to death. Took a a couple pics of stuff that had been cleaned off of old snow.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/11gqfex.jpg)
(http://i64.tinypic.com/sz9y0o.jpg)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: justinmundie on January 16, 2018, 05:26:43 AM
Nashville may be getting a pretty specific screw job here. Weíre set up between bands. Have had light snow on and off ost of the night with a dusting. Really need a band to set up for an hour or two over the metro. And soon.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JTM1988 on January 16, 2018, 05:27:02 AM
Soooooo is the radar being funky or will the snow literally not fill in over downtown Nashville????


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Skillsweather on January 16, 2018, 05:33:57 AM
Colleges are like we closed for this really??? haha  ::scratch::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: cgauxknox on January 16, 2018, 05:34:23 AM
This morning pretty much all the local forecasts are saying less than 2 inches for Knoxville.  Are they thinking it's overperformed west of us and will run out of moisture or are they seeing a shift in the track?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 16, 2018, 05:37:57 AM
It's a snowy morning up my way. Hopefully things get going for southern parts of middle later this morning. ::fingerscrossed:: ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Beth on January 16, 2018, 05:39:31 AM
I wish the band of snow would stop and rest on top of us like it did all night in west TN. Itís moving so fast now that we will do good to get a inch.  :-*
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 16, 2018, 05:40:12 AM
This morning pretty much all the local forecasts are saying less than 2 inches for Knoxville.  Are they thinking it's overperformed west of us and will run out of moisture or are they seeing a shift in the track?
honestly think itís about trying to snow  it self out . Energy bout zapped.  Snow so hard here last four hours as hard I ever seen ...
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 05:40:59 AM
Well this one ranks way up the list for over performers on this end. Gonna guess we are scaring 5 inches to death. Took a a couple pics of stuff that had been cleaned off of old snow.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/11gqfex.jpg)
(http://i64.tinypic.com/sz9y0o.jpg)

Congrats Dyer.  With two big scores already, I think this is turning out to be a WTW--West Tennessee Winter. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Skillsweather on January 16, 2018, 05:43:07 AM
I wish the band of snow would stop and rest on top of us like it did all night in west TN. Itís moving so fast now that we will do good to get a inch.  :-*
Yeah its annoying. Oh well West wins again lol
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 05:43:34 AM
This morning pretty much all the local forecasts are saying less than 2 inches for Knoxville.  Are they thinking it's overperformed west of us and will run out of moisture or are they seeing a shift in the track?

I think ratios will be different here than in west TN and KY.  We may get the same amount of liquid equivalent, but it will only add up to an inch or two.  Some models show us getting up to near 35 today before the colder air arrives.  The somewhat slower movement of the system will allow us to warm more today. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: MSR041933 on January 16, 2018, 05:44:06 AM
Very light snow showers just started in lawrenceburg.  Starting to cover patio table and other surfaces. Began about 25 minutes ago.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Skillsweather on January 16, 2018, 05:49:37 AM
Its like sleet snow here. I guess theres something up in the atmosphere prohibiting the flakes to fully form for me atm.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Coach B on January 16, 2018, 06:05:37 AM
Nashville may be getting a pretty specific screw job here. Weíre set up between bands.
Looks like band forming up along a Columbia to Murfreesboro line strengthened after it got thru Nashville. Nashville looks good for the next little while. Picking up speed for sure.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 16, 2018, 06:09:15 AM
I am going to need the snow to fill back in from Springfield to Clarksville to Erin. Thanks MN!
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: cliftown04 on January 16, 2018, 06:11:23 AM
I gave up on that line at 10:15 and then got up at 1:15. It hadnít moved south a mile! Very frustrating to be so close to more than a dusting to an inch....
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mamMATTus on January 16, 2018, 06:13:41 AM
Waking up to basically nothing...but there was all this talk about overperforming, rising sref plumes, ratios and good trends before bed. Never again.
Title: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Thundersnow on January 16, 2018, 06:14:38 AM
When I went to bed, it was just starting in Nolensville as the leading edge was coming into Nashville. Evidently the system just slammed on brakes at that point and continued to dump on those of you further west. Itís coming in now finally but moving faster. Looks like some decent returns about to move in so weíll see what happens.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 16, 2018, 06:17:59 AM
Waking up to basically nothing...but there was all this talk about overperforming, rising sref plumes, ratios and good trends before bed. Never again.

I feel your pain
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: snowdog on January 16, 2018, 06:18:30 AM
Well BNA gets the shaft again. Just one of those winters here it looks like. Hard to watch the snow right on your backdoor all night and not budge.

Ohh well, congrats to those who did get something.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 16, 2018, 06:22:59 AM
Well BNA gets the shaft again. Just one of those winters here it looks like. Hard to watch the snow right on your backdoor all night and not budge.

Ohh well, congrats to those who did get something.
Yeah I thought Nashville would get in on this more for sure. Did pretty well up here. ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 16, 2018, 06:23:08 AM
Look at BG getting another heavy band. Seriously folks, want to score big? Move to BG. I have given It serious thought...plus I love the town.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 06:26:42 AM
Not sure what to think about this system as it heads over here.  We are currently partly cloudy and 25, but some models show us warming into the 30's.  NAM is still showing a decent 1-2, and HRRR is around 1.5, but these bands of snow behave erratically.  One may form to your west and then dissipate, and then reform to your east giving you something like this. . .  ::bangingheadintowall::

It would be nice to at least get cloudy and dark.  I never feel good about an afternoon snow with the sun out that morning. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 16, 2018, 06:28:48 AM
Not sure what to think about this system as it heads over here.  We are currently partly cloudy and 25, but some models show us warming into the 30's.  NAM is still showing a decent 1-2, and HRRR is around 1.5, but these bands of snow behave erratically.  One may form to your west and then dissipate, and then reform to your east giving you something like this. . .  ::bangingheadintowall::

It would be nice to at least get cloudy and dark.  I never feel good about an afternoon snow with the sun out that morning.

Most winter events are close calls where you may get 1" and some place 15 miles away from you gets 3-4". Like you said, it all depends on where the heaviest returns set up. I am currently looking at Celina getting hammered with heavy snow.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Thundersnow on January 16, 2018, 06:29:13 AM
Nashville and points south about to get some fairly heavy snow, it looks like. With the system picking up speed though, the question is how long will it last- maybe some of us pick up an inch or two.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: snowdog on January 16, 2018, 06:34:03 AM
Nashville and points south about to get some fairly heavy snow, it looks like. With the system picking up speed though, the question is how long will it last- maybe some of us pick up an inch or two.


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Sadly it is looking like a half inch may be it, looking at radar currently.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 06:34:37 AM
Nashville and points south about to get some fairly heavy snow, it looks like. With the system picking up speed though, the question is how long will it last- maybe some of us pick up an inch or two.


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I noticed that.  In the last two hours it seems to have moved more than it did all last night. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 16, 2018, 06:36:45 AM
Sadly it is looking like a half inch may be it, looking at radar currently.

That is what I currently have and I would be shocked if I got another 1/2" out of what is remaining. Seeing the radar blow up east of me is infuriating. Oh well, still pretty to look at fall.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: ultra mag on January 16, 2018, 06:50:27 AM
Well this one ranks way up the list for over performers on this end. Gonna guess we are scaring 5 inches to death. Took a a couple pics of stuff that had been cleaned off of old snow.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/11gqfex.jpg)
(http://i64.tinypic.com/sz9y0o.jpg)
I know we got 5 here maybe a bit more
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Skillsweather on January 16, 2018, 06:53:05 AM
Went to work 45min commute turned 1hr not bad. But roads are bad and interstate too. Snowing hard.... My tiny ford focus is champ or me one haha
I think im in that band i hope it stalls but again i might get stuck out here if it does.... 2wheel drive in a light car cant drive through deep snow good.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 06:55:46 AM
I just now see the cloud band approaching me from the north and west.  Down to 24.6 with the clear skies, and hoping the clouds move in right at Sunrise to keep warming to a minimum. 

Office decided to close today, so I guess I'll go outside and work on removing the honeysuckle vines from the landscape.  Somehow being outside, and watching the weather rather than the weather models is more enjoyable and far less stressful. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Thundersnow on January 16, 2018, 07:07:32 AM
Itís one of those cold weather dustings where the street and sidewalks are white, but there isnít near enough to cover the grass. Itís too dry to stick, so it just falls like powder between the blades of grass.

Yeah- my hope of 1-2Ē is way optimistic. I think weíll stay below an inch here as well... and trends last night were looking so good. Congrats to those of you in West TN... again.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 16, 2018, 07:09:07 AM
Itís one of those cold weather dustings where the street and sidewalks are white, but there isnít near enough to cover the grass. Itís too dry to stick, so it just falls like powder between the blades of grass.

Yeah- my hope of 1-2Ē is way optimistic. I think weíll stay below an inch here as well... and trends last night were looking so good. Congrats to those of you in West TN... again.


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Yep, this is the snow that makes the roads a mess...more so than the wet, compact snow.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 16, 2018, 07:09:21 AM
I know we got 5 here maybe a bit more
I agree. Now that it is light outside. Wow. A Cardinal just landed in the powder under the bird feeder and disappeared.  ::rofl:: I am in shock how this played out. Glad I did not make a bet.
Where are all the Memphis posters ? Is the internet snowed in ?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Lcwthrnut on January 16, 2018, 07:17:14 AM
Swing and a miss strike 2!!!
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Skillsweather on January 16, 2018, 07:18:15 AM
A little se of me near watertown looks to have a high dbz forming.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 16, 2018, 07:19:15 AM
Swing and a miss strike 2!!!

Hohenwald is under a blob of 20+ dbz...
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Jilly on January 16, 2018, 07:28:50 AM
Snowing pretty good on DeKalb/White Co line.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: spanarkle08 on January 16, 2018, 07:31:37 AM
Still snowing here in Clarksburg...right at 4 inches ..We will be out of school all week!!
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 16, 2018, 07:35:09 AM
Looks like Nashville is in for more 20-25 dbz snowfall with the returns heading NE from Centerville
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: harlequin on January 16, 2018, 07:40:18 AM
(https://preview.ibb.co/j2Dorm/image3.jpg)

Solid event in Memphis.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 16, 2018, 07:43:12 AM
(https://preview.ibb.co/j2Dorm/image3.jpg)

Solid event in Memphis.

Nice dusting
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 07:44:04 AM
Looks like Nashville is in for more 20-25 dbz snowfall with the returns heading NE from Centerville

Yes, radar is improving and filling in for the Nashville area.  Old Man Winter heard their complaints.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: dwagner88 on January 16, 2018, 07:44:47 AM
Nice dusting
Lol. That would be the most Iíve had IMBY in nearly 3 years.

25 at my house this morning, 19 at work in Ducktown. Fingers crossed that the moisture can hold together. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Curt on January 16, 2018, 07:45:48 AM
About done here

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180116/c1fb544d2817239fdb3874f7bd805bc6.jpg)

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180116/55009103c080994007c0157452af62cc.jpg)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JHart on January 16, 2018, 07:47:04 AM
I can remember back in the 1990's thinking that NW Tennessee was a "snow desert," because most storms affected Murfreesboro and SE.  Now the 'Boro gets crumbs and they have the snow dessert.

Our turn will come again.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 16, 2018, 07:49:30 AM
Someone has already measured over an inch in Murfressboro. That band of snow isn't messing around.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: cbrentv318 on January 16, 2018, 07:53:43 AM
Someone has already measured over an inch in Murfressboro. That band of snow isn't messing around.
We have a nice inch here in Murfreesboro.(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180116/e2737d86ac6b6fc727b6a6dbc0824abf.jpg)

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: harlequin on January 16, 2018, 07:54:04 AM
LSRs indicate 2.5 - 4" across Shelby. There's a 6" report in Palestine, AR west of Forrest City.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 07:57:19 AM
Lol. That would be the most Iíve had IMBY in nearly 3 years.

25 at my house this morning, 19 at work in Ducktown. Fingers crossed that the moisture can hold together.

Same here.  Feeling apprehensive about it as it makes it way into eastern TN.  Will it?  Won't it? 

Post Merge: January 16, 2018, 07:58:48 AM
Some really good returns just southwest of Nash.  Appears to be heading that way, too. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Thundersnow on January 16, 2018, 07:59:19 AM
About done here

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180116/c1fb544d2817239fdb3874f7bd805bc6.jpg)

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180116/55009103c080994007c0157452af62cc.jpg)

Very, very nice.  Just now trying to make a run at getting a dusting half way up the grass here.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 16, 2018, 08:01:23 AM
I am currently getting the heaviest snow I've seen since this event started. Radar really blew up the returns on this last scan.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Coach B on January 16, 2018, 08:02:33 AM
Measured exactly .5" on the snowboard with the first band here SW of Lewisburg. Hoping the second wave holds together to add some more.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 08:07:01 AM
12Z NAM still running.  Continues to hold out hope for eastern areas.  Upper plateau into southeast KY gets a good 3+ inch snow.  Knoxville and Tri-Cities are around 1.5-2", while Chattanooga comes in with near 1".    Considering the radar shows snow already falling on the upper plateau above Knoxville, that sounds about right. 

Post Merge: January 16, 2018, 08:12:11 AM
I am currently getting the heaviest snow I've seen since this event started. Radar really blew up the returns on this last scan.

Ha ha...you may get that inch after all!! If memory recalls...that means my jinx is off.   ::guitar::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: snowdog on January 16, 2018, 08:18:54 AM
(https://preview.ibb.co/j2Dorm/image3.jpg)

Solid event in Memphis.

Good to see the Memphis snow geese getting fed this week. They were looking sickly after the last few years.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: StormNine on January 16, 2018, 08:20:14 AM
5.5 to 6 inches in Hopkinsville.  Stewart County has a report of 7 inches.  Upwards of 11 inches reported in the Jackson Purchase area of KY. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: snowdog on January 16, 2018, 08:20:32 AM
About done here

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180116/c1fb544d2817239fdb3874f7bd805bc6.jpg)

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180116/55009103c080994007c0157452af62cc.jpg)

Looks good. Congrats Curt.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 16, 2018, 08:26:39 AM
Hopefully the good fortune makes it to the East
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 08:28:05 AM
Sun still out here.  Temp rising, along with dewpoint.  Both in upper 20's now.  Don't think we'll have the powder snow here to start.  One thing for certain, plenty of moisture by winter standards for this Arctic front to squeeze out as it pushes up against the mountains.  I just hope the temp doesn't do something crazy and push near 40. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 16, 2018, 08:30:00 AM
Sun still out here.  Temp rising, along with dewpoint.  Both in upper 20's now.  Don't think we'll have the powder snow here to start.  One thing for certain, plenty of moisture by winter standards for this Arctic front to squeeze out as it pushes up against the mountains.  I just hope the temp doesn't do something crazy and push near 40.

We got up to 44 degrees yesterday and then temps dropped in a hurry once the front passed and then the moisture followed
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Brad on January 16, 2018, 08:31:02 AM
Interesting to see this playing out for BNA. Models showed snow all night (which we know didnít happen), but qpf is looking to be roughly what was modeled for the area. If only weíd had these returns all night ...
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: ryandourius on January 16, 2018, 08:35:14 AM
We got easily another 5 inches here in Humboldt. It was just starting to melt real good yesterday. If you want the snow you guys can have it. I am over it already.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Thundersnow on January 16, 2018, 08:42:40 AM
Today is the 15th anniversary of when Nashville was crippled by the overperformer that dropped 7-9" on 1/16/2003.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: RABBITT040 on January 16, 2018, 08:46:31 AM
Heavy snow in Spring Hill for the past hour  ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 16, 2018, 08:49:48 AM
LMK has expanded their Winter Storm Warnings to include all their counties.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: dwagner88 on January 16, 2018, 08:50:39 AM
Today is the 15th anniversary of when Nashville was crippled by the overperformer that dropped 7-9" on 1/16/2003.
That storm gave me my only snow day in middle or high school. That was a bad period for snow here.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 16, 2018, 08:55:22 AM
I measured right at 1", and given current trends I may be able to squeeze out another 1/2" or so.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 09:00:31 AM
I measured right at 1", and given current trends I may be able to squeeze out another 1/2" or so.  ::snowman::

 ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause::


If we get that much, I'll be a happy camper.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 16, 2018, 09:03:34 AM
I measured right at 1", and given current trends I may be able to squeeze out another 1/2" or so.  ::snowman::

Awesome! Definitely beating your expectations from earlier this morning
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: harlequin on January 16, 2018, 09:07:41 AM
There is a 6" report in Camden, AR (south) and west of Forrest City, AR. So the localized higher totals we expected did happen.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Michael on January 16, 2018, 09:10:27 AM
Hopefully we get at least a white ground here in NE TN. Last System only gave us about 30 min of light flurries. Nothing on ground.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 16, 2018, 09:15:21 AM
Good to see the Memphis snow geese getting fed this week. They were looking sickly after the last few years.
Mmmm-  delicious!

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: StormNine on January 16, 2018, 09:16:05 AM
Anyone who is or who knows someone that is traveling in KY both I-24 and I-65 have been impacted by accidents and major backups.  One in I-65 that involves a Greyhound Bus in Hart County and a string of accidents between Paducah and the Land Between the Lakes on I-24. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 09:17:29 AM
Hopefully we get at least a white ground here in NE TN. Last System only gave us about 30 min of light flurries. Nothing on ground.


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Models say yes, but you know how it works in the east TN valley--sometimes not as models show.  Current HRRR that's still running shows pretty healthy radar returns once the band of snow arrives.  Since the mean flow is from the southwest overrunning the front, moisture transport up the valley should be decent.  All we can do is wait.   ::fingerscrossed::

Sky finally darkening to my west.  Temperature above freezing now at 34. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Beth on January 16, 2018, 09:22:11 AM
Today is the 15th anniversary of when Nashville was crippled by the overperformer that dropped 7-9" on 1/16/2003.
Was that one of the times when so many peeps abandoned their cars on the interstates?  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: memphishogfan on January 16, 2018, 09:23:19 AM
Little under 3.5 inches here in Manila. Itís been fun, but I am ready for warmer weather and a January severe set up.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: NashRugger on January 16, 2018, 09:26:59 AM
Was that one of the times when so many peeps abandoned their cars on the interstates?  ::snowman::
Yes. I was a sophomore at Oakland in the Boro and walked 2.5 miles home because no buses made it to the school.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 09:28:32 AM
14Z HRRR shows some heavy banding later around Knox & Sevier counties southwest along the foothills toward Ducktown/Copperhill.  1-2 inches projected in those areas.  Slightly lower amounts to the northeast of there, but still nearing an inch in some places.  Chattanooga is in a lower QPF area, but still around an inch.  Heavier totals to the east--as is usually the case.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 16, 2018, 09:29:36 AM
I was living in TN at the time, Jan 16th '03. I remember it vividly. Was in Kindergarten and we ended up with 6" in Brentwood. They let us go to school that day because the forecasters thought it would hit in the evening.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: justinmundie on January 16, 2018, 09:31:32 AM
I was living in TN at the time, Jan 16th '03. I remember it vividly. Was in Kindergarten and we ended up with 6" in Brentwood. They let us go to school that day because the forecasters thought it would hit in the evening.

They also thought it would be flurries to maybe and inch.

I was sitting in Memphis, a senior in high school, with 33 degree rain.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 16, 2018, 09:31:54 AM
what a week it has been snow wise... fridays system, got half inch sleet with nearly 6 inches of snow on top that...last nights.... roughly 5 more inches of pure snow... with  bout nearly  2 inches melting process between systems... got close to 9 inches in spots i measured total.... yeah been fun... but over winter now... im been blessed with 2 great winter storms in one week... what more could one ask for in tennessee... kind like the 70s in  way guess... like memphishog fan just said... ready for the other aspect of weather.. big warmup with a severe risk...
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Scot on January 16, 2018, 09:39:47 AM
The ignore user feature is glorious!
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Thundersnow on January 16, 2018, 09:41:31 AM
Was that one of the times when so many peeps abandoned their cars on the interstates?  ::snowman::

Yep- and on secondaries and everywhere else... it was a disaster. Thousands were on foot.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Beth on January 16, 2018, 09:42:45 AM
We lived in Kingston Springs then. We lived on top of a big hill right past Golf Club of America.  The bus got my middle school and high schooler and other neigbor kids to the bottom of the hill. Our neighbor went and got them one at a time on his 4-wheeler.  We also ended up with 2 cars in our yard too!  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 09:48:37 AM
The ignore user feature is glorious!

 ::rofl::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 16, 2018, 09:53:05 AM
Got 3.2 with the first system Friday. Measured just a little over 4.5 from last night. We had right at 2.5 still on the ground yesterday before this system came in. We now have 7 inches of snowpack here in woodlawn. Congrats to all that scored, and for those that didn't or don't there is still time left.  ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 16, 2018, 09:54:15 AM
what a week it has been snow wise... fridays system, got half inch sleet with nearly 6 inches of snow on top that...last nights.... roughly 5 more inches of pure snow... with  bout nearly  2 inches melting process between systems... got close to 9 inches in spots i measured total.... yeah been fun... but over winter now... im been blessed with 2 great winter storms in one week... what more could one ask for in tennessee... kind like the 70s in  way guess... like memphishog fan just said... ready for the other aspect of weather.. big warmup with a severe risk...

Hey Bruce, there's a month called March. It's great for the weather you desire, and it will be here before we know it. Now please, could the rest of us enjoy winter  ::rofl::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: snowdog on January 16, 2018, 09:59:03 AM
Got 3.2 with the first system Friday. Measured just a little over 4.5 from last night. We had right at 2.5 still on the ground yesterday before this system came in. We now have 7 inches of snowpack here in woodlawn. Congrats to all that scored, and for those that didn't or don't there is still time left.  ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

Atta boy Snowman, enjoy.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mtcards on January 16, 2018, 10:01:02 AM
They also thought it would be flurries to maybe and inch.

I was sitting in Memphis, a senior in high school, with 33 degree rain.

I have found that as time goes by, the local mets and the NWS  (Who the local mets basically copy/paste) have gotten so conservative in their forecasting of snow totals that virtually 99% of storms "overperform" their original forecast totals
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JHart on January 16, 2018, 10:03:15 AM
We have experienced snow with 1/2 to 3/4 mile visibility out here for about ninety minutes... beautiful to watch.  This system ended up more equitable than many of us feared.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: RABBITT040 on January 16, 2018, 10:04:23 AM
Approaching 2Ē here. Looks like I might end up close to 3Ē Most snow here in about 5 years!
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JHart on January 16, 2018, 10:05:26 AM
Hey Bruce, there's a month called March. It's great for the weather you desire, and it will be here before we know it. Now please, could the rest of us enjoy winter  ::rofl::

Gold star for you! ::applause::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: RABBITT040 on January 16, 2018, 10:07:08 AM
😛
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 16, 2018, 10:07:53 AM
Gold star for you! ::applause::
trust me... im praying someone else gets it.... im pulling so hard to whom ones didnt get their desired full of winter... dont take it any harm... just kind like what memhpis hog fan said earlier... i agree with him
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Michael on January 16, 2018, 10:09:29 AM
Models say yes, but you know how it works in the east TN valley--sometimes not as models show.  Current HRRR that's still running shows pretty healthy radar returns once the band of snow arrives.  Since the mean flow is from the southwest overrunning the front, moisture transport up the valley should be decent.  All we can do is wait.   ::fingerscrossed::

Sky finally darkening to my west.  Temperature above freezing now at 34.
Would be nice to see an over performer in the Valley for once. Most of time itís under performance.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 16, 2018, 10:10:07 AM
Gold star for you! ::applause::
besides... way this winter shaping up... wouldnt suprise me if we get a huge snow in march this season... ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Michael on January 16, 2018, 10:12:25 AM
Currently Sunny and 38 here in Upper East Tn. Awaiting the arrival. Should be within the hour or so.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JHart on January 16, 2018, 10:36:12 AM
besides... way this winter shaping up... wouldnt suprise me if we get a huge snow in march this season... ::snowman::
By that time, I will be solidly in your camp, Bruce.  I put winter to bed on March 1.  Whether it stays there ... 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 10:38:08 AM
Currently Sunny and 38 here in Upper East Tn. Awaiting the arrival. Should be within the hour or so.


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Radar shows it finally making a move off the plateau.  Partly cloudy here, with patches of blue. SREF on our side--shows about everyone at least getting an inch in the Valley.  Keep. Hope. Alive.

One thing of interest shown on the HRRR the last few runs is an enhancment of the radar returns as they head into the eastern valley toward the mountains.  They look almost convective in nature as the cold front moves in. Could help with the totals there.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JHart on January 16, 2018, 10:44:08 AM
Radar shows it finally making a move off the plateau.  Partly cloudy here, with patches of blue. SREF on our side--shows about everyone at least getting an inch in the Valley.  Keep. Hope. Alive.
I hope you all soon get to experience what I have for the past hour or so.  Looking at our humble hills through a veil of falling snow, I can only imagine how beautiful the foothills of the Smokies must be in a winter storm.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Brad19 on January 16, 2018, 10:44:32 AM
Radar shows it finally making a move off the plateau.  Partly cloudy here, with patches of blue. SREF on our side--shows about everyone at least getting an inch in the Valley.  Keep. Hope. Alive.

We are in East Tn the West Side got their snow, now they can go out and play and wipe their boots off on us
 ::rofl:: #snowdomecity
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: WestKnoxNavster on January 16, 2018, 10:47:00 AM
We are in East Tn the West Side got their snow, now they can go out and play and wipe their boots off on us
 ::rofl:: #snowdomecity
That must be why they've all gone silent about what's going to happen next, they're out playing in it. #whateast
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 10:49:53 AM
Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1054 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Issuing a Wind Chill Advisory for much of plateau for tonight,
beginning at 9pm. Also, have updated overnight low temps, bringing
them lower--looking upstream, think that some of the guidance is
too warm. Keeping Winter Weather Advisory as is--snow amounts look
good; onset in far northeast looks a little slower, but will not
adjust Advisory for that area--expire time of 1am there looks
good. Have warmed up Max Temps for today ahead of front as present
temps were elevating above forecast maxes. However, cold air will
hit with a fury, as temps in Scott TN are already falling again--
into upper teens. Last check of forecast precip type--still
looking like all snow event as solid wall of cold advection will
accompany precip.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Curt on January 16, 2018, 10:52:11 AM
Clear skies and 11 degrees here and per short term modeling not going much if anywhere. Might get low clouds for the afternoon- then temps plummet with fresh snow cover. Euro as well as HRR are close to zero tonight in many places. In the meantime- thereís something about the blue sky contrast with fresh snow-cover.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180116/51d378e5336024d91e66bcbc5ff91e8a.jpg)

Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 10:52:20 AM
I hope you all soon get to experience what I have for the past hour or so.  Looking at our humble hills through a veil of falling snow, I can only imagine how beautiful the foothills of the Smokies must be in a winter storm.  ::fingerscrossed::

Thanks for the support.  :)  It would be nice to have a snow outside of the night-time hours.  75% of the fun is watching it fall.  The other 25% is playing afterwards...
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: WestKnoxNavster on January 16, 2018, 10:54:30 AM
Thanks for the support.  :)  It would be nice to have a snow outside of the night-time hours.  75% of the fun is watching it fall.  The other 25% is playing afterwards...
And how many of our past snows have occurred at night? Like 99%? LOL

EDIT: I think probably January 28th, 2014. That was when I was sliding around in a school bus trying to get kids home after an early dismissal when it wasn't supposed to start snowing until after 1p and it began at 9a.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Brad19 on January 16, 2018, 11:01:19 AM


EDIT: I think probably January 28th, 2014. That was when I was sliding around in a school bus trying to get kids home after an early dismissal when it wasn't supposed to start snowing until after 1p and it began at 9a.
[/quote]

sliding around.... Thats because you dont know how to drive LOL ::doh::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: WestKnoxNavster on January 16, 2018, 11:04:44 AM
Thank goodness for the ignore user function ::blowtorch:: ::bacon::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 16, 2018, 11:07:31 AM
I have never seen snow this heavy with temps at 9-10į.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: RABBITT040 on January 16, 2018, 11:07:57 AM
 ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 11:08:30 AM
Go time for east TN.  Precipitation has entered the western valley, and approaching Knox county.  Time to put the models aside and watch radar trends.  They'll tell the tale of what's happening.  Right now radar returns are increasing--not decreasing--west of Knoxville.  That's a good sign.  System isn't falling apart. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Brad19 on January 16, 2018, 11:08:53 AM
Thank goodness for the ignore user function ::blowtorch:: ::bacon::

I've seen you drive a racecar we all know when to hide! HAHA
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 11:09:45 AM
I have never seen snow this heavy with temps at 9-10į.

Wow...you've got some major banding going on there FTW.   And Nashville looks to get in on it.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Brad19 on January 16, 2018, 11:09:56 AM
Go time for east TN.  Precipitation has entered the western valley, and approaching Knox county.  Time to put the models aside and watch radar trends.  They'll tell the tale of what's happening.  Right now radar returns are increasing--not decreasing--west of Knoxville.  That's a good sign.  System isn't falling apart.

fingers crossed brother! my kids are waiting at the backdoor  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: WestKnoxNavster on January 16, 2018, 11:11:43 AM
Go time for east TN.  Precipitation has entered the western valley, and approaching Knox county.  Time to put the models aside and watch radar trends.  They'll tell the tale of what's happening.  Right now radar returns are increasing--not decreasing--west of Knoxville.  That's a good sign.  System isn't falling apart.
I'm in Karns and I saw a flake and it wasn't dandruff since I saw it out the window. I will say that the temperature here as dropped DRAMATICALLY. It was MUCH warmer than this about 30 minutes ago when I last checked. I don't have a weather station so I can't tell you exact temperatures. But it's cold and has gotten windy. It may finally be go time before long.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Greyhound on January 16, 2018, 11:13:40 AM
I have never seen snow this heavy with temps at 9-10į.
What was your temp when it started snowing?


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Michael on January 16, 2018, 11:14:37 AM
Iíll be one of the last ones to see some action as Iím in far northeast Hamblen County.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: justinmundie on January 16, 2018, 11:14:44 AM
Ripping in Nashville in this band.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 11:23:01 AM
Iíll be one of the last ones to see some action as Iím in far northeast Hamblen County.


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The way the band is oriented from southwest to northeast, I'd say you'll see it probably an hour or so after I do.  Maybe less.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: memphishogfan on January 16, 2018, 11:23:53 AM
Dyersburg, did you feel that earthquake?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 16, 2018, 11:26:42 AM
Dyersburg, did you feel that earthquake?
that was just me hogfan.... i did eat at taco bell early last night before the storm hit... just joking.  trying to add little humor.... were was the epic center at?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: memphishogfan on January 16, 2018, 11:27:16 AM
Just south of Caruthersville. 3.6
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Skillsweather on January 16, 2018, 11:34:28 AM
Wow idk how much we have i see like 1.5 on rails but it seems like much more.. Its been coming down in mt juliet in buckets.. My house is east so probably even more.. Idk how i can get home.. Gl me. At 4pm
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: dwagner88 on January 16, 2018, 11:36:33 AM
Wife reports the first flakes are flying in East Brainerd.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Cody on January 16, 2018, 11:43:18 AM
I ended up with 3Ē


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 16, 2018, 11:51:26 AM
Dyersburg, did you feel that earthquake?
Nope. My daughter did.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 11:53:12 AM
I like the look of the returns in the lower valley.  Not anemic at the moment.   ;D
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: WestKnoxNavster on January 16, 2018, 11:55:44 AM
I like the look of the returns in the lower valley.  Not anemic at the moment.   ;D
Pretty good rate of snow has just started falling here in Karns. I've got reports that at the split it's coming down good, as well as reports of Loudon getting a moderate snow.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: kdt333 on January 16, 2018, 11:58:55 AM
Starting to fall here in Fountain City, Knoxville, TN

 ;D

Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 12:00:49 PM
Pretty good rate of snow has just started falling here in Karns. I've got reports that at the split it's coming down good, as well as reports of Loudon getting a moderate snow.

Those are strong returns for snow.  Moderate snow probably a good description.



(http://i67.tinypic.com/nzocb6.gif)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: cgauxknox on January 16, 2018, 12:02:54 PM
Fine, dry snow has started near Cedar Bluff with temp at 36.   ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 12:05:07 PM
Fine, dry snow has started near Cedar Bluff with temp at 36.   ::fingerscrossed::

Temp should drop like a rock.  When the snow begins, the cold front has passed.  After a partly cloudy day, the clouds are finally lowering and darkening.  Sun has faded to a dim light. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: WestKnoxNavster on January 16, 2018, 12:09:55 PM
The snow here has doubled in intensity in the past 5 minutes. Larger flakes now.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Michael on January 16, 2018, 12:14:42 PM
Anxiously waiting northeast of Morristown. Not a flake, but itís coming based on returns. Just hitting east Knoxville from what Im hearing.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: ryandourius on January 16, 2018, 12:19:51 PM
My house shook some. It was very brief.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Thundersnow on January 16, 2018, 12:25:32 PM
After what was looking like a dusting at best, we rallied with some nice redevelopment in the Nashville area. I just took some measurements as the snow should be winding down in the next few minutes, and it looks like we're going to end up with close to right at 2".
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 16, 2018, 12:27:42 PM
We ended up with 2.5". ::snowman:: VERY surprised given the way radar looked when I got up at 4 this morning.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 16, 2018, 12:33:05 PM
Fine but moderately intense snow falling here.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Michael on January 16, 2018, 12:33:52 PM
Currently 40 in Morristown. Snowing in Knoxville.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 16, 2018, 12:37:25 PM
We dropped from 38 to 33 in 30 minutes.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: ChrisPC on January 16, 2018, 12:47:30 PM
Itís right at 3Ē in Hermitage. It wasnít very impressive until the last two hours. I think half of the total fell then!
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: AdamLewis on January 16, 2018, 12:49:27 PM
Seeing reports of HYTOP radar down.  Does this explain the gap in radar returns forming over the plateau and Chattanooga, is that a real hole in the moisture?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 16, 2018, 12:49:40 PM
Coming down hard in Knoxville. I'm hoping the moisture will ride right up the valley, correcting that dry slot to our west.  ::popcorn::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Michael on January 16, 2018, 12:53:23 PM
Still 40. But snow just miles out. Interesting.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180116/fe5bc7cd5775eff2752304e0fef40b15.jpg)


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Thundersnow on January 16, 2018, 01:03:17 PM
Still 40. But snow just miles out. Interesting.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180116/fe5bc7cd5775eff2752304e0fef40b15.jpg)


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Temperatures will start dropping... and quickly. Once the snow starts, you should be below freezing and only dropping from there.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 01:11:36 PM
I'm observing sleet/rain mixture at the moment and 41.  Hope it drops FAST. 

Post Merge: January 16, 2018, 01:13:58 PM
We ended up with 2.5". ::snowman:: VERY surprised given the way radar looked when I got up at 4 this morning.

Congrats. And you owe me. lol  My jinx turned out to be good luck.  ;)

Post Merge: January 16, 2018, 01:18:13 PM
Coming down hard in Knoxville. I'm hoping the moisture will ride right up the valley, correcting that dry slot to our west.  ::popcorn::

Send some my way bro!!  Radar looking good.  We're having a mixture here at the moment because it's 40.  But it is dropping, and the wind is picking up.  Some sleet pellets, mixed with rain, mixed with flurries are falling.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: RABBITT040 on January 16, 2018, 01:18:24 PM
Right at about 3Ē here in Spring Hill
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Curt on January 16, 2018, 01:21:47 PM
Ended up with 3-4 over here. Amazing what sun can do to streets even at 12 degrees. Doing a number on them
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 16, 2018, 01:23:39 PM
Western NC is now projected to pick up on the action. This is important for the Tri Cities, who could see a second round of snow overnight.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 16, 2018, 01:24:54 PM
Ended up with 3-4 over here. Amazing what sun can do to streets even at 12 degrees. Doing a number on them
curt   you see the euro day  6 and 7 range...  ;D?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 01:26:34 PM
With a gust of wind the temp just dropped from 40 to 37, and the mixture is now all snow.  It's very light, but no more of that rain nonsense is falling. Whatever we end up with, it is a very interesting system. But I'll like it a lot more if we at least get an inch of snow. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Uncle Nasty on January 16, 2018, 01:32:24 PM
Unless that 2nd band gets us we had nothing. We got maybe 15 minutes of good snow with temps at 36*. It's dropped to 28* and nothing, not even a flurry. If the 2nd band makes it here it looks like it will swing through and be out within an hour of arrival.  ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 16, 2018, 01:36:42 PM
Moderate snowfall in Knoxville, with temps at 29 degrees. Already 1/4" on the ground, judging by the naked eye. Should start to pick up quickly.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Thundersnow on January 16, 2018, 01:37:44 PM
There are some trailing streamers extending off the backside of the departing band, giving us some flurries. Not anything significant but interesting to look at on radar and observations. I wonder if there's a little residual lake/river enhancement causing those streamers coming in from the northwest.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 01:41:45 PM
Unless that 2nd band gets us we had nothing. We got maybe 15 minutes of good snow with temps at 36*. It's dropped to 28* and nothing, not even a flurry. If the 2nd band makes it here it looks like it will swing through and be out within an hour of arrival.  ::bangingheadintowall::

Don't give up.  As we've seen through this whole event, sometimes snow regenerates and develops over an area.  It looked dismal in middle TN earlier this morning, but then they got 1-2 inches with heavy snow bands. It's actually happening somewhat in the central valley as these bands move in.

Post Merge: January 16, 2018, 01:47:03 PM
In the last 5 minutes it has started snowing hard enough to reduce the visibility.  Temp dropped to 35.  It. Has. Arrived.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 16, 2018, 01:48:46 PM
Ended up with 3-4 over here. Amazing what sun can do to streets even at 12 degrees. Doing a number on them
Had a good 5 here and when I went to lunch all roads looked about like they did at 8 this morning.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: BRUCE on January 16, 2018, 01:50:38 PM
Had a good 5 here and when I went to lunch all roads looked about like they did at 8 this morning.
good storm dyer... i got same here in j town area, especially just north of i 40 corridor were i live... two nice storms in a week... ::guitar::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Michael on January 16, 2018, 02:00:53 PM
Finally snowing in the Northern Valley. Pretty decent rate too. Already seen more flakes than the System a few days or so ago lol.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 02:02:38 PM
Pouring here, and already a dusting on the leaves in the woods.  Temp dropping, and down to 32.  Some heavy banding showing up around Knoxville, just like they saw in middle TN earlier.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JHart on January 16, 2018, 02:08:38 PM
Pouring here, and already a dusting on the leaves in the woods.  Temp dropping, and down to 32.  Some heavy banding showing up around Knoxville, just like they saw in middle TN earlier.

 ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause:: ::applause::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Skillsweather on January 16, 2018, 02:19:09 PM
Im not measuring it but a solid 2-3 in mt juliet possibly a little more. Fluffy goodness. Ill report my house when i get home.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 02:23:17 PM
Pine trees turning white now...amazed at how quickly we went from Sun and 41 to 29 and moderate snow. What is it about heavy snow that turns a grown man into a little boy again? lol  At least there's something that can do it.  :D

Post Merge: January 16, 2018, 02:46:28 PM
Banding continues just east and south of Knox.  If anything, it's getting more impressive.  Snow on the heavy side here.  Visibility low and street light just came at neighbors house.  Flakes are growing quite a bit in size as well. 



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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Skillsweather on January 16, 2018, 03:03:44 PM
At my house we have 3 easily. Possibly 4ish. Crazy i love this. And roads are all clear just wet besides back roads. 10 degrees isnt cold enough with salt and the sun for ice. But wait until tonight
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 03:05:03 PM
It is pouring here!  Flakes are huge. I guess the Arctic air is squeezing out all the moisture.  I honestly didn't expect anything this heavy.  ::faint:: Radar shows the dark band right over my area.

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Hank W on January 16, 2018, 03:17:39 PM
Drove across East Memphis and Germantown this morning- About 1.5-2". My house in gtown had just under 2. Desoto county got screwed a little with many areas looking like less than 1.5. Models really struggled with the highest total locations. Also like Curt said- it is really amazing, the temp has been in the teens all day and most roads in the sun have completely melted. Decent event for sure, but didn't verify the WSW in these areas after the models teased us with some pretty good numbers yesterday. Congrats to all the winners! Really is fun watching and learning from each system.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 03:18:04 PM
Quote
rea Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
259 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Wednesday)...Snow has been a little
slower in its eastward progression than previous models suggested.
However, we are in full swing of snow for most of the area with
the exception of southwest NC where they have light rain and temps
are in the low 40s. Current radar trends show a bit of a break
over the Sequatchie Valley stretching into Cumberland County,
however, it will be short lived. More snow is on the way from
Middle TN moving eastward. Snowfall amounts are still forecast to
be generally in the 1 to 3 inch range with some of the higher
elevations picking up 2 to 3 more inches than the lower
elevations.
Big story will be the cold that will accompany the
snow as well as over the next couple of nights. Wednesday daytime
highs will be rather cold, too.


Post Merge: January 16, 2018, 03:45:30 PM
Snow intensity back to a light/moderate, but that heavy band put down nearly an inch on my deck.  Now were back to the fine flakes, but wow, was that fun when the sky opened up.

Radar shows we aren't done quite yet, and we still have a dewpoint of 24 (temp 26), so there's more moisture that can be squeezed out as the cold air continues to press in.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Curt on January 16, 2018, 03:52:51 PM
All of the short term models minus the NAM, and even the Euro has 0 or below for most of the state tonight over fresh snowcover. In fact, its has zero over the entire Arkansas and MS delta regions. We all know the UHI will do its thing in Memphis and Nashville, but once outside all bets are off.

Drove into the office finally- side streets are a mess and even some main thoroughfares. Where the sun hit the hilly streets, it melted off, and then bam- out of nowhere are long stretches of snow and ice covered roads. Tomorrow morning will be a challenge.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 04:14:18 PM
Of course, when you want to see what is coming upstream on a nearby radar. . .

Quote
OUS64 KHUN 161723
FTMHTX
Message Date:  Jan 16 2018 17:40:52

KHTX Hytop, AL radar is inoperable. Due to weather conditions, the repairs will
not be completed until Wednesday or Thursday. We apologize for the inconvenience
.

Interesting that the HRRR now shows heavy snow totals in the Tri-Cities area, and most of western NC.  Most long range models had this system falling apart, and giving those places very little. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Curt on January 16, 2018, 04:27:31 PM
Medium Range Model grades
Euro gets an A . Couldn't ask for better prediction than this one. Had it nailed for days. Only drawback was a little overdone on QPF at times

CMC gets a B. Was a little slow to catch on but once locked in it was a good match

GFS gets a D. Abysmal overall with over progressive nature. Didn't catch on until the end. I'm really not sure what to say about it anymore.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 04:38:59 PM
Medium Range Model grades
Euro gets an A . Couldn't ask for better prediction than this one. Had it nailed for days. Only drawback was a little overdone on QPF at times

CMC gets a B. Was a little slow to catch on but once locked in it was a good match

GFS gets a D. Abysmal overall with over progressive nature. Didn't catch on until the end. I'm really not sure what to say about it anymore.

Agree.  And the GFS is hardly worth looking at anymore.  How many storms has it shown in the long range lately that never happened?  I think they need to scrap it, and start over. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 16, 2018, 04:55:03 PM
Little bit of flurries and snow showers showing up moving south on Evansville radar. I wonder if they will be any flurries in the air later tonight over our region? ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Thundersnow on January 16, 2018, 04:56:52 PM
Little bit of flurries and snow showers showing up moving south on Evansville radar. I wonder if they will be any flurries in the air later tonight over our region? ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

OHX has scattered flurries over the area tomorrow morning.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 16, 2018, 04:57:02 PM
Talk about a flash freeze. The instant the sun went behind horizon temp fell 5 degrees and everything that was thawed at all froze instantly. Forecast low is now -1. We might beat that. Currently it is 8.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: harlequin on January 16, 2018, 05:11:56 PM
All of the short term models minus the NAM, and even the Euro has 0 or below for most of the state tonight over fresh snowcover. In fact, its has zero over the entire Arkansas and MS delta regions. We all know the UHI will do its thing in Memphis and Nashville, but once outside all bets are off.

Drove into the office finally- side streets are a mess and even some main thoroughfares. Where the sun hit the hilly streets, it melted off, and then bam- out of nowhere are long stretches of snow and ice covered roads. Tomorrow morning will be a challenge.

Very curious to see how far into the singles KMEM can get. Is 8 or 9 the lowest this century? I know it got lower than that in 1996.

And yes regarding the roads. Directly in front of my house about 50% had melted from the road. I went to the gym, rounded the corner, and plenty of roads are still covered. I slid at a stop sign actually. It's extremely slick.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 05:34:05 PM
Snow still falling here, occasionally moderately.  I changed my security light to 10 minutes, so I wouldn't have to run out every 2 to get it to come on.   ;D

Road is covered here.  If the HRRR is to be believed, snow my slacken for awhile, then almost back build into the foothills and mountains for a bit before it moves out.  Right now I have near 1.5" on the deck.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 16, 2018, 05:40:52 PM
Moderate snow expected to continue here for another hour.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 16, 2018, 06:00:37 PM
This morning.

(http://i65.tinypic.com/rs6gt0.jpg)

The main Bypass in Dyersburg at 530 this afternoon.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/1zsytc.jpg)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Curt on January 16, 2018, 06:08:43 PM
Very curious to see how far into the singles KMEM can get. Is 8 or 9 the lowest this century? I know it got lower than that in 1996.

And yes regarding the roads. Directly in front of my house about 50% had melted from the road. I went to the gym, rounded the corner, and plenty of roads are still covered. I slid at a stop sign actually. It's extremely slick.

Single digits already into Shelby Co. Should be an interesting night to see how the UHI and KMEM handle ideal conditions for a temp plummet.

KMEM hit single digits in Jan 1997. Need to see if the airport has since. Its tough out there now with all the night time activity- which is actually busier than the daytime.


Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Michael on January 16, 2018, 06:12:42 PM
MRX reporting 22:1 ratios in Morristown with an official measurement of 1.1Ē and still coming down.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 16, 2018, 06:13:24 PM
what a week it has been snow wise... fridays system, got half inch sleet with nearly 6 inches of snow on top that...last nights.... roughly 5 more inches of pure snow... with  bout nearly  2 inches melting process between systems... got close to 9 inches in spots i measured total.... yeah been fun... but over winter now... im been blessed with 2 great winter storms in one week... what more could one ask for in tennessee... kind like the 70s in  way guess... like memphishog fan just said... ready for the other aspect of weather.. big warmup with a severe risk...
Even if I don't share your feelings of being "over winter", I would agree with about everything else you said.  This winter is already a success.

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 16, 2018, 06:18:39 PM
Clear skies and 11 degrees here and per short term modeling not going much if anywhere. Might get low clouds for the afternoon- then temps plummet with fresh snow cover. Euro as well as HRR are close to zero tonight in many places. In the meantime- thereís something about the blue sky contrast with fresh snow-cover.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180116/51d378e5336024d91e66bcbc5ff91e8a.jpg)
Temp in Collierville is 11 @ 6pm.  The forecast low is 7.  How is it going to drop only 4 degrees without southerly flow?

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Curt on January 16, 2018, 06:24:32 PM
Memphis Int'l- the ultimate heat island single digits since 96?
1/1996- 9/4/4
1/1997= 8
1/2010 = 9
1/2014- 8/9
1/2015 = 9

Last time below zero? 1989. Wow.

Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 06:26:33 PM
MRX reporting 22:1 ratios in Morristown with an official measurement of 1.1Ē and still coming down.


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Hope you got some good snow up your way!
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 16, 2018, 06:28:30 PM
Little under 3.5 inches here in Manila. Itís been fun, but I am ready for warmer weather and a January severe set up.
Hush your mouth. We on a roll.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 06:29:17 PM
Temp in Collierville is 11 @ 6pm.  The forecast low is 7.  How is it going to drop only 4 degrees without southerly flow?

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If your skies are clearing, I'd say prepare for something near 0.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 16, 2018, 06:42:52 PM
Well , as of 6:45 we are at 1 degree.  ::cold::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 06:43:19 PM
Interesting evening weather-wise.  Light snow still falling, and radar shows moisture pressing against the mountains.  Short term models continue to show snow/moisture hanging on in the foothills and dropping another 1-3 inches.  I'm on the northwestern edge of that, and may see another half inch.  Looking at what is upstream in Alabama and Georgia, it may be possible.  In any event, those east of me in Cocke and Greene counties have a long way to go before this one is done.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 16, 2018, 06:53:13 PM
Memphis Int'l- the ultimate heat island single digits since 96?
1/1996- 9/4/4
1/1997= 8
1/2010 = 9
1/2014- 8/9
1/2015 = 9

Last time below zero? 1989. Wow.
Multiple wx stations in Millington area at 6-  I see 5.9 atm @ Shelby Forest!  Wow!  That's very impressive for 7am and it's not even 7pm yet.

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 16, 2018, 06:54:23 PM
If your skies are clearing, I'd say prepare for something near 0.
I mean, I'm thinking we have a chance.  Lowest I've ever seen here is 0.4 degrees - IDK but it would seem possible!

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 16, 2018, 06:54:56 PM
Well , as of 6:45 we are at 1 degree.  ::cold::
My word, I mean you could go well below zero!

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Curt on January 16, 2018, 06:55:11 PM
(http://i65.tinypic.com/3589zd5.jpg)
Baton Rouge I-10 bridge of the MS River- yikes
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 06:57:18 PM
Well , as of 6:45 we are at 1 degree.  ::cold::

Wow...will be interesting to see how low you can go...

(https://cdn-media-2.lifehack.org/wp-content/files/2014/10/3605011903_3595edf7e5_b.jpg)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 16, 2018, 07:01:12 PM
Covington at 2 below zero. Can that be accurate?

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Curt on January 16, 2018, 07:07:31 PM
got some sneaky cloud cover coming in from the north. probably flurries but may keep temps up if it doesn't break
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 16, 2018, 07:09:02 PM
Wow...will be interesting to see how low you can go...

(https://cdn-media-2.lifehack.org/wp-content/files/2014/10/3605011903_3595edf7e5_b.jpg)
Awesome pic!

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Michael on January 16, 2018, 07:24:39 PM
Hope you got some good snow up your way!
Still snowing and everything is covered! I love it!


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 08:19:28 PM
I guess the HRRR was on to something.  Radar showed decreasing returns for a bit, but now radar lighting up in far southeast TN and northeast AL.  01ZHRR continues to insist that another inch could fall from my area to the east and north.  So much for hitting the bed early.   ::sleeping::

And anyone notice the short range models now have parts of east central Alabama possibly getting a couple of inches overnight? 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 16, 2018, 08:30:58 PM
MEG just updated grids to add light snow showers to areas downwind of Kentucky Lake and the Tennessee River.  LOL!

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Michael on January 16, 2018, 08:46:25 PM
HRRR simulated radar gets interesting along far NE TN overnight. Weíre literally right on the edge. We could be getting more snow push through overnight. Something to watch. Foothills definitely in play for more snow to fill back in overnight.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: snowdog on January 16, 2018, 08:46:36 PM
Just checked radar out of boredom and it's snowing in the deep South again. What is going on this year?!? Lol
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 08:54:06 PM
HRRR simulated radar gets interesting along far NE TN overnight. Weíre literally right on the edge. We could be getting more snow push through overnight. Something to watch. Foothills definitely in play for more snow to fill back in overnight.


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The little Arctic front that could...

MRX radar shows increasing returns in far southeast TN.  Actually looks like it could be snowing lightly again around Chattanooga.  After a brief lull, snow has started falling here again, as well.  I gotta say, this has been a fun day.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 16, 2018, 08:58:05 PM
We made it to 0 and now with the cloud cover we are back up to 7.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 09:02:55 PM
Just ran outside to get the light to come on... ::panic::...and it is coming down at a good rate once again.  I wasn't sure if the HRRR was smokin' something or what, but I guess it was on the mark.  The fat lady hasn't sang here yet. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: ChrisPC on January 16, 2018, 09:09:44 PM
Just checked radar out of boredom and it's snowing in the deep South again. What is going on this year?!? Lol

My family in South MS got at least an inch tonight. They got 6Ē on December 7. Itís snowing in Baton Rouge, Houston, New Orleans, and even Biloxi right now!
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Michael on January 16, 2018, 09:32:45 PM
HRRR says the night ainít over for NE TN. Particular the I-81 corridor and East. Last couple of runs has backed closer towards I-81. Foothills gets another 2Ē at least. Im hoping we can squeeze out at least another 1/2-1Ē. Weíll see.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 16, 2018, 09:36:34 PM
Another light band of snow is pushing back up towards Knoxville. This is the moisture necessary to produce accumulating snow over NE Tenn and Western NC tonight.

I see Chattanooga finally got a consistent band of light to moderate snow. Anyone down there got a measurement?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 16, 2018, 09:41:25 PM
Just checked radar out of boredom and it's snowing in the deep South again. What is going on this year?!? Lol
The start of a new grand minimum?

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180117/4077b08cad825982bb6718a24b4a7e6e.jpg)

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 16, 2018, 09:42:32 PM
We made it to 0 and now with the cloud cover we are back up to 7.
Set some rules, Dyer.  No snow, no clouds!

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Cody on January 16, 2018, 09:43:56 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180117/44cd050d2ccf0efb8be83849c4110276.jpg)


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 16, 2018, 09:45:38 PM
Snow is coming to Florida for the third time this winter.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 16, 2018, 09:48:22 PM
This has been an enjoyable weather system for a big chunk of Tennessee from the Mississippi to the mountains.  MRX says it's mostly over, but the short range models say not quite.  Either way, it's been a good day.  Started sunny and pleasant, and I worked a bit outside as I watched the clouds thicken and lower.  Nothing quite like watching a snow system move in, and I'm grateful it was during the day so I could take it all in. 

Hope everyone here east to west also enjoyed our winter event.  I know it wasn't the "storm of the century," but a couple of inches of snow in the south is always something special. 

Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 16, 2018, 09:48:52 PM
We made it to 0 and now with the cloud cover we are back up to 7.
You are downwind of a fairly nice fetch off the River and Reelfoot....

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 16, 2018, 09:50:11 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180117/44cd050d2ccf0efb8be83849c4110276.jpg)


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Wow, that's a keeper!

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Michael on January 16, 2018, 10:00:17 PM
Boom!
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180117/a1b009b16ec1ce8f68ac811d2db035d4.jpg)


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 16, 2018, 10:39:04 PM
Wow! (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180117/8a49f5f6cdb8d46a8f861cce3213cf1c.jpg)

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: komosgj on January 16, 2018, 10:43:34 PM
Ok. So, apparently it not Lake Effect off Cherokee Lake. I reached out to NWS Morristown and they buzz killed me lol. Itís overall Synoptic Forcing and a mid level boundary that just happens to be aligned with the lake.. #FalseAlarm I got over excited lol.


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Don't you need about 60 miles of fetch to get lake effect?  Do we have any lakes around here that can cause that?
Title: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Michael on January 16, 2018, 11:17:04 PM
Don't you need about 60 miles of fetch to get lake effect?  Do we have any lakes around here that can cause that?
It was happening in West Tn earlier. But, this Cherokee Lake deal was from overall Synoptic Forcing and a mid level boundary that just happened to align perfectly with the lake.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Scot on January 16, 2018, 11:39:33 PM
So does Susan start all winter threads now?


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Thundersnow on January 16, 2018, 11:42:34 PM
It was happening in West Tn earlier. But, this Cherokee Lake deal was from overall Synoptic Forcing and a mid level boundary that just happened to align perfectly with the Lake, giving the appearance of Lake Effect snow.


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Not to mention- the orientation of it isnít what would happen. All the local examples weíve seen of lake effect is the Arctic air blowing down from the north or north-northwest, which means the ďfetchĒ pulls the flurry streamers southward. It has to do with wind direction, which wouldnít be from SW to NE to cause that. ;)


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Michael on January 16, 2018, 11:47:43 PM
Not to mention- the orientation of it isnít what would happen. All the local examples weíve seen of lake effect is the Arctic air blowing down from the north or north-northwest, which means the ďfetchĒ pulls the flurry streamers southward. It has to do with wind direction, which wouldnít be from SW to NE to cause that. ;)


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Good point. I donít know why I wasnít thinking that. Just the looks of everything got me a little surprised lol.


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 17, 2018, 01:11:43 AM
How low can we go. Steadily falling at the moment. I see -6 in Paris.

(http://i65.tinypic.com/333h8xu.jpg)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 17, 2018, 03:56:20 AM
How low can we go. Steadily falling at the moment. I see -6 in Paris.

(http://i65.tinypic.com/333h8xu.jpg)
We've been stalled out- seemingly forever!

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Coach B on January 17, 2018, 06:27:43 AM
I got down to 0 overnight. Cloud cover no doubt kept us from dropping below 0. I'm up to 6 now with snowflakes in the air.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 17, 2018, 06:40:32 AM
Woke up to 10.9 and steady flurries falling.  Radar is interesting.  While the main band of moisture has pulled into North Carolina, some returns are slowly increasing and spreading south-southwest between Morristown and Knoxville.   
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: dwagner88 on January 17, 2018, 06:43:29 AM
I think Chattanooga is going to be the only southern city outside of Florida to not report any measurable snow sometime in the past week. We are definitely back to our late 90ís form.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 17, 2018, 07:09:44 AM
Steady light snow falling now, as the radar returns to my northeast have moved in.  Flake size has increased quite a bit.  Won't add up to much, but nice watching it fall. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mudaddict on January 17, 2018, 07:32:42 AM
Nice flizzard going on in the boro
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 17, 2018, 07:43:05 AM
Got down to -4.5. Clouds rolled back in and back up to 8 now.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mudaddict on January 17, 2018, 07:48:44 AM
24 is snow covered in Smyrna again...Nice snow coming down...
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 17, 2018, 07:50:15 AM
I forgot to mention light snow is falling in Dyersburg also.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: cliftown04 on January 17, 2018, 07:57:23 AM
Light snow in northern Wayne county!
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: dwagner88 on January 17, 2018, 08:03:43 AM
Made it to work in Ducktown without issue. Side roads look bad. Thereís about 3/4Ē here. Itís also 6 degrees and still snowing. This is the coldest temperature that Iíve ever personally witnessed snow falling.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JHart on January 17, 2018, 08:05:07 AM
We have 1/2 mile visibility here in Lascassas under steady snow and fog with some minor accumulation taking place.  The temperature is 12F.  What an amazing pattern.  I guess this is what people in New Hampshire see all winter long.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 17, 2018, 08:11:23 AM
Light snow falling here too. Actually starting to stick a little on my shoveled off sidewalk. I wonder if Kentucky Lake had much or any lake effect last night or this morning? ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 17, 2018, 08:18:45 AM
Decent flizzard here too.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Sbeagles on January 17, 2018, 08:21:05 AM
Flizzard warning here this morning! Its actually lightly coated some surfaces I had cleaned off yesterday.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Coach B on January 17, 2018, 08:29:34 AM
Way more than flurries here. We have a bonifide snow shower going on. Roads that were cleared are turning white again.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Charles L. on January 17, 2018, 08:35:59 AM
Way more than flurries here. We have a bonifide snow shower going on. Roads that were cleared are turning white again.

This is falling hard like yesterday, it's just that the flakes are small. It is adding to our accumulation too
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Thundersnow on January 17, 2018, 08:41:38 AM
Must be some low level stuff not picking up all that well on radar. I do see some "streamers" that sort of look like they're coming off some of our lakes.  ;)

The system that keeps on giving!
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 17, 2018, 08:45:58 AM
MRX mentioned steep lapse rates today in a discussion yesterday.  We're actually seeing a few snow showers pop up around here.  It comes down pretty good when they move through.  We haven't seen this type of pattern in many years. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Sbeagles on January 17, 2018, 09:04:52 AM
Its actually really coming down now. Snowing about like it did for the majority of yesterday morning.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 17, 2018, 09:05:18 AM
Flurries in Collierville - likely river or lake effect

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Thundersnow on January 17, 2018, 09:20:51 AM
This is visibility-reducing, accumulating snow.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 17, 2018, 10:31:51 AM
Low angle of the Sun, combined with snow cover is making for a very slow temperature recovery--if you can call it that.  Even with partial sun, only up to 13 here.  Snow is not melting at all, even on the concrete sidewalk.  They did treat the road, and now it's melting a bit, but slowly.  Whatever melts in the Sun today will freeze up fast when it sets this evening.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 17, 2018, 10:41:24 AM
Low angle of the Sun, combined with snow cover is making for a very slow temperature recovery--if you can call it that.  Even with partial sun, only up to 13 here.  Snow is not melting at all, even on the concrete sidewalk.  They did treat the road, and now it's melting a bit, but slowly.  Whatever melts in the Sun today will freeze up fast when it sets this evening.
Heat wave here. Up to 19
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 17, 2018, 11:10:59 AM
Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1040 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...

PW values are only around a tenth of an inch but the arctic
airmass is taking advantage of any lingering moisture. Snow
showers and flurries are more widespread than previously forecast
and we have received a tenth of an inch since 7 am at MRX. Expect
an additional tenth to a quarter of an inch will be possible
across the Northern Valley with an additional half an inch in the
foothills and approaching an inch in the highers elevations of E
TN and SW VA. With the clouds continuing throughout the day have
lowered temperatures by 3 or 4 degrees. Models have really
struggled with the snowfall today but do expect things to come to
an end this afternoon into this evening with clearing skies. With
clearing skies, light winds, and snow cover, expect single digits
tonight with a brief dip below zero possible in a few locations.

Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Skillsweather on January 17, 2018, 11:50:36 AM
Im curious about the sun and how it heats up asphalt like what temp outside for it to not be able to heat it up above 32 to melt or keep liquids, liquid. Im sure the salt makes the water have a lower freezing point like 25 or something. So just change 32 to 25 if the road was salted. I know sun angles and a few other factors come into play. But with all the treatments done and sun angle of january what temp overcomes the sun to freeze water? 0, -10, -20. I mean during summers temp is 90 but with good sun angle asphalt heats up to 100+. So same happens in winter just lesser. Sorry for rambling just trying to fully cover my question.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: ChrisPC on January 17, 2018, 12:48:15 PM
The ice doesnít completely melt, it just kind of slides down. Itís basically the same thing as a glacier. Iíve been seeing it sliding down trees and buildings, and cars that havenít been driven.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 17, 2018, 01:03:21 PM
Skies finally clearing after several hours of flurries and snow showers.  Clouds seem to be evaporating--simply disappearing..  Thus ends this winter weather event.   ::candle:: 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: snowdog on January 17, 2018, 01:41:10 PM
I don't cheer against anyone in the state getting snow...but does NC, who has by far the biggest snow weenies, have to get hit by what feels like every storm?
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 17, 2018, 02:04:45 PM
Im curious about the sun and how it heats up asphalt like what temp outside for it to not be able to heat it up above 32 to melt or keep liquids, liquid. Im sure the salt makes the water have a lower freezing point like 25 or something. So just change 32 to 25 if the road was salted. I know sun angles and a few other factors come into play. But with all the treatments done and sun angle of january what temp overcomes the sun to freeze water? 0, -10, -20. I mean during summers temp is 90 but with good sun angle asphalt heats up to 100+. So same happens in winter just lesser. Sorry for rambling just trying to fully cover my question.

I presume dry snow will evaporate- or sublime, I guess- more quickly than the wet stuff that we normally get, thus contributing to the lack of ice we are seeing now. In these conditions, with fine dry powder and ample sunlight with a low sun angle, the stuff that's not in the shadows can disappear quickly.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JHart on January 17, 2018, 02:47:01 PM
I presume dry snow will evaporate- or sublime, I guess- more quickly than the wet stuff that we normally get, thus contributing to the lack of ice we are seeing now. In these conditions, with fine dry powder and ample sunlight with a low sun angle, the stuff that's not in the shadows can disappear quickly.
Hmmm... I always thought the correct term for this process is "sublimate" ... only to discover "sublime" and "sublimate"  are synonyms.  Who knew?  Well, I guess you did.  :)

I really need for MTSU to open.  I've got all my class stuff ready and have way too much time on my hands.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 17, 2018, 03:01:53 PM
Hmmm... I always thought the correct term for this process is "sublimate" ... only to discover "sublime" and "sublimate"  are synonyms.  Who knew?  Well, I guess you did.  :)

I really was taking a guess at this... I am a non-native English speaker LOL
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 17, 2018, 03:33:00 PM
I don't cheer against anyone in the state getting snow...but does NC, who has by far the biggest snow weenies, have to get hit by what feels like every storm?

I noticed that.  But at least you aren't right across the mountain from 4-8 inches of snow.  :-\  The Piedmont over there got hammered by our clipper after it tip-toed through Tennessee.   
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 17, 2018, 04:16:34 PM
I noticed that.  But at least you aren't right across the mountain from 4-8 inches of snow.  :-\  The Piedmont over there got hammered by our clipper after it tip-toed through Tennessee.

The models were showing nothing for Asheville a day ago. Crazy.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 17, 2018, 05:52:58 PM
Forecast low of 11 tonight. Sun goes down and bam it is already 9.

Post Merge: January 17, 2018, 08:57:26 PM
So much for the low of 11. They updated to a low of 2. It is already 2.8 as I type this. This is one for the archives.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: pirates1 on January 17, 2018, 09:29:39 PM
How much do you think the snow will melt in the 36 or 38 degree weather in Williamson County tomorrow? 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Thundersnow on January 17, 2018, 10:04:08 PM
How much do you think the snow will melt in the 36 or 38 degree weather in Williamson County tomorrow?

I expect there will be quite a bit of melting tomorrow under sunny skies and above freezing temps. I suspect some shady spots and north-facing hills on side roads and in neighborhoods will still retain patchy ice into Friday morning though.

Friday's temps in the 40s should wipe out most of what's left in any case.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 17, 2018, 11:48:23 PM
(http://i65.tinypic.com/jjl7at.jpg)
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 18, 2018, 04:28:36 AM
(http://i65.tinypic.com/jjl7at.jpg)
Birmingham got screwed?

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 18, 2018, 06:44:18 AM
Down to 4 this morning.  Still may drop another degree or so, and colder than the forecast low of 7.  Despite all the cold this winter, I still got lower last winter during our one and only cold spell thanks to a deeper snow pack.  I dipped just below zero during that one.

Post Merge: January 18, 2018, 07:53:05 AM
Bottomed out at 3 this morning. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: dwagner88 on January 18, 2018, 08:45:39 AM
(http://i65.tinypic.com/jjl7at.jpg)
::cliff::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Skillsweather on January 18, 2018, 11:45:36 AM
It was 1 at like around 4am on the fairgrounds sign. Probably got to 0 or below maybe. It was colder then yesterday thanks to no clouds.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Thundersnow on January 18, 2018, 12:41:54 PM
Today's sun is being very effective in melting the snow with the warmer temperatures. It is quickly disappearing in exposed areas, with patches remaining in the protected, shaded areas.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 18, 2018, 03:43:33 PM
Still 100 % coverage here except most roads. Sun and warm up definitely doing some damage but we had an awesome snowpack. Still 2 to 4 on the ground.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 18, 2018, 04:15:43 PM
We still have a decent layer of white here, but it has thinned.  We only got to 32.3 today.  That fact and the low sun angle helped us out (plus I live in a wooded area). 

Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 18, 2018, 05:13:47 PM
Both City and County schools closed again tomorrow. They have not been since last Thursday. ::snowman::
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: cloudcrash619 on January 18, 2018, 06:50:50 PM
Both City and County schools closed again tomorrow. They have not been since last Thursday. ::snowman::

Same for Desoto county. I was in DCS for all 13 years and can't remember a stretch of closings as long as this.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 18, 2018, 07:34:39 PM
The real kicker that I just realized. Snow on the ground for 7 days and not one snowman to be seen.  It has been decades since that was possible here. Powder and Arctic temps for the win.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 18, 2018, 08:11:50 PM
Both City and County schools closed again tomorrow. They have not been since last Thursday. ::snowman::

All fun and games 'til the 10th day- then the kids are stuck there into June
Title: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Cody on January 18, 2018, 09:39:12 PM
All fun and games 'til the 10th day- then the kids are stuck there into June
I work for our school system and Iím on a 12 month contract, so Iím good if we go or not


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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 18, 2018, 09:45:08 PM
The real kicker that I just realized. Snow on the ground for 7 days and not one snowman to be seen.  It has been decades since that was possible here. Powder and Arctic temps for the win.
Funny you should say that

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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: joemomma on January 19, 2018, 09:34:19 AM
Putnam has something like 13 snow days available.  The kids have been out since last Friday I think.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 19, 2018, 10:37:44 AM
Most schools outside of Knox County (Knoxville) closed today.  It was mentioned on the news people in Knox were not happy.  If the road they showed on the news was representative of what the side/back roads looked like, they may have a legitimate gripe.  It looked untreated. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Crockett on January 19, 2018, 11:34:51 AM
Most schools outside of Knox County (Knoxville) closed today.  It was mentioned on the news people in Knox were not happy.  If the road they showed on the news was representative of what the side/back roads looked like, they may have a legitimate gripe.  It looked untreated.

What I've found to hold true is that the same parents who gripe about school being in session are the same ones who are at Walmart, McDonald's, etc., every day school is closed. Schools close way too often for snow and inclement weather, imo. They certainly wouldn't have closed so easily when I was in school. Fewer kids are riding buses to school today than ever, yet there's more controversy when school isn't closed than ever. Go figure.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 19, 2018, 12:36:16 PM
What I've found to hold true is that the same parents who gripe about school being in session are the same ones who are at Walmart, McDonald's, etc., every day school is closed. Schools close way too often for snow and inclement weather, imo. They certainly wouldn't have closed so easily when I was in school. Fewer kids are riding buses to school today than ever, yet there's more controversy when school isn't closed than ever. Go figure.
I agree. When I was in school we would have had school yesterday and today 100% guaranteed. We also had more opportunities and people were a lot more accustomed to it.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: schneitzeit on January 19, 2018, 12:41:56 PM
Most schools outside of Knox County (Knoxville) closed today.  It was mentioned on the news people in Knox were not happy.  If the road they showed on the news was representative of what the side/back roads looked like, they may have a legitimate gripe.  It looked untreated.

Many low traffic one-way streets downtown that haven't caught the sun yet still have a good inch of snow on them.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Beth on January 19, 2018, 12:46:18 PM
I agree. When I was in school we would have had school yesterday and today 100% guaranteed. We also had more opportunities and people were a lot more accustomed to it.
Even with less kids riding buses the schools are still hesitant to not call schools off when there is ice and snow on the back roads. Law suits could be brought about very easily with just one bus wreck.  Our roads in Dickson look good.  But go up to Charlotte and I garantee there is quite a bit of snow and ice on the shady lightly traveled roads. Itís just not worth it to risk even one childs life.
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: meigs497 on January 19, 2018, 12:47:34 PM
 ::sleeping:: looks like for 2 weeks
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: JayCee on January 19, 2018, 01:18:19 PM
I agree. When I was in school we would have had school yesterday and today 100% guaranteed. We also had more opportunities and people were a lot more accustomed to it.

I lived in northern KY in the late 70's, and remember walking to the end of my road with inches of snow on the ground to catch the bus.  Some mornings were near zero.  They did close school occasionally, but if we missed as much school back then as they do now for an icy patch or two, we would've missed 3 straight months in 77-78.  Nevertheless, I can understand schools being safe, and not risking an accident.  I would do the same if I was an administrator. 
Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: mempho on January 20, 2018, 03:03:10 PM
Even with less kids riding buses the schools are still hesitant to not call schools off when there is ice and snow on the back roads. Law suits could be brought about very easily with just one bus wreck.  Our roads in Dickson look good.  But go up to Charlotte and I garantee there is quite a bit of snow and ice on the shady lightly traveled roads. Itís just not worth it to risk even one childs life.
I believe this just shows that we are ill-prepared for snowfall and cold to potentially cycle back to snowy and cold.

What will happen if double digit snowstorms start making occasional or even more frequent appearances in January and February?

Will the kids ever go to school?  Will people be shut in their homes for the better part of two weeks and have no access to food or medecine?



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Title: Re: January 15th - 16th Snow
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 20, 2018, 07:21:38 PM
(http://i68.tinypic.com/2d6wk1k.jpg)