Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => General Weather => Topic started by: Curt on September 01, 2017, 12:29:17 PM

Title: Fall 2017
Post by: Curt on September 01, 2017, 12:29:17 PM
Meteorological fall starts today. Post away.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: cgauxknox on September 01, 2017, 03:48:56 PM
I went out to the woodshed and split some kindling with the wind kicking up this afternoon, and then when the rain came in and drove me inside went into my workshop to sharpen my hatchet, during which the local country station played Rocky Top.  It's fall y'all!   ::yum::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: snowdog on September 01, 2017, 05:19:59 PM
Call me crazy, but I love days like today. Light rain, windy, cooler. Feels like fall out there.  ::guitar::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 01, 2017, 05:45:26 PM
The weather looks awesome for the first week of fall. Can't believe it's gonna be in the upper 70s next weekend for football. Raider Nation is coming to Nashville and we bringing  >:D with us.  ::pirate::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on September 01, 2017, 08:02:32 PM
Call me crazy, but I love days like today. Light rain, windy, cooler. Feels like fall out there.  ::guitar::
crazy   you said so.... ::rofl:: .... feels like football weather just in time also... ::guitar::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 02, 2017, 06:42:29 AM
Feels like an October morning with temps in the upper 50's, a stiff breeze blowing, and a light mist falling.  It's the kind of morning that lets you know seasons are changing, and right on time as September begins.  Sure beats last year's heat that lasted into November. 

Despite the dryness continuing here, not concerned about drought getting a foothold like last year.  Pattern looks much more active than last fall, and a good .75-1.00" looks likely for this area next week.  Temperatures late week are unbelievable for early September--lower 70's.  I'm on board. 

Happy Labor Day weekend, folks. 


Post Merge: September 02, 2017, 12:37:37 PM
Wow...talk about a change of seasons!  Barely 60, and light rain falling most of the day with a strong breeze.   It's sweatshirt weather over here.  Not the best for Labor Day weekend, but I've got my grill fired up and we're enjoying every minute of it.  A covered porch is a joy forever!

Any misspellings are due to friends spiking the punch. (that's my story--and I'm sticking to it)  ;D
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 03, 2017, 07:42:02 AM
Absolutely beautiful morning here, after a quarter inch of rain fell yesterday (which was actually the most that fell in a 24hr period here with Harvey).  However, local TDOT cameras show some very dense, pea soup fog in some locations.  Visibility is zero in many areas.   
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: cgauxknox on September 04, 2017, 07:07:13 AM
After tomorrow the extended forecasts are showing Knoxville staying with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s, pretty much absolutely perfect fall weather in September.  Next weekend may be the first batch of pumpkin custard and ginger snaps of the year!
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: schneitzeit on September 04, 2017, 10:18:41 AM
After tomorrow the extended forecasts are showing Knoxville staying with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s, pretty much absolutely perfect fall weather in September.  Next weekend may be the first batch of pumpkin custard and ginger snaps of the year!

We might dip into the upper 40s this week. Feels like football weather  ::flag::
Speaking of the upper 40s, that might be the amount of scoring UT's defense will allow against Georgia Tech tonight  ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Crockett on September 04, 2017, 02:16:34 PM
2015 was the wettest year on record in Oneida (records only date back to ~1950, so take it for what it's worth), with 72.4" of rainfall.

2016 was not the driest year on record but it was close. We wound up with 46" of rainfall, thanks to a wet December, beat out the old record of 41.6" (1959). It was the driest year-to-date until the start of December.

Now we're back on the plus side in 2017, with a rainfall surplus of about 10" as of Sept. 1. That's not quite as much as 2015, but we're a lot closer to 2015's January-August totals (-6") than we are to 1959's (-18"). Normal is just an average of extremes, but it seems here lately all we have are extremes.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 04, 2017, 02:29:12 PM
After a good rain tomorrow evening into Wednesday morning, we have a forecast high of 71 on Thursday and a low of 50 on the local point and click forecast.  Perfection. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: dwagner88 on September 04, 2017, 02:48:57 PM
2015 was the wettest year on record in Oneida (records only date back to ~1950, so take it for what it's worth), with 72.4" of rainfall.

2016 was not the driest year on record but it was close. We wound up with 46" of rainfall, thanks to a wet December, beat out the old record of 41.6" (1959). It was the driest year-to-date until the start of December.

Now we're back on the plus side in 2017, with a rainfall surplus of about 10" as of Sept. 1. That's not quite as much as 2015, but we're a lot closer to 2015's January-August totals (-6") than we are to 1959's (-18"). Normal is just an average of extremes, but it seems here lately all we have are extremes.
Yep. After getting just over 2" of rain from Harvey, I'm getting really close to 50" on the year already.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 04, 2017, 03:22:28 PM
Yep. After getting just over 2" of rain from Harvey, I'm getting really close to 50" on the year already.

I'm not sure where "normal" lies here where I live, but I'm at 35" for the year.  So, while other areas of the state have had too much rain, we're probably around where we should be or slightly below.  We only had about a half inch with Harvey thanks to downsloping southeast winds over the Smokies. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: dwagner88 on September 06, 2017, 07:41:04 AM
Just wanted to report that it is 58 and raining in Ducktown this morning. Feels like November.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: cgauxknox on September 06, 2017, 04:04:58 PM
In non-hurricane news they're predicting "near record lows" in Knoxville tonight and tomorrow night at 49 and 50 degrees respectively.  I'm loving the early taste of fall and chilly air.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 06, 2017, 04:36:50 PM
In non-hurricane news they're predicting "near record lows" in Knoxville tonight and tomorrow night at 49 and 50 degrees respectively.  I'm loving the early taste of fall and chilly air.

This is so much better than last year.  I've got all the windows open, there is no choking smoke filling the air, and no need for the air conditioner.  Hope it lasts all month long. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: harlequin on September 06, 2017, 10:17:03 PM
I don't know if I've ever seen such comfortable weather forecast this early in September here. Temps below 80, low humidity, and no chances of rain. We're frequently still in the 90s then.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 07, 2017, 05:51:21 AM
Absolutely perfect October morning with temps in the upper 40's.  O wait, it's early September.  My bad.

Anyone else catch a glimpse of the full moon?  It was super bright last night. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: cgauxknox on September 07, 2017, 06:03:45 AM
Absolutely perfect October morning with temps in the upper 40's.  O wait, it's early September.  My bad.

Anyone else catch a glimpse of the full moon?  It was super bright last night.

It doesn't get much better than this!  Cool and crisp in the valley this morning, heavy dew, and that scent to the air that you only get in the fall.  I wonder which of our friends will have the first bonfire this weekend...
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 07, 2017, 06:16:32 AM
I don't know if I've ever seen such comfortable weather forecast this early in September here. Temps below 80, low humidity, and no chances of rain. We're frequently still in the 90s then.

Just like summer, the 2017 autumn is the complete opposite of last year--at least so far.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JHart on September 07, 2017, 07:44:56 AM
The temperature out here dropped briefly to 44.8F just before 5:00 AM after spending several hours in the upper 40's.  Remarkable for early September ...  ::cold::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Coach B on September 07, 2017, 08:04:07 AM
It was a morning for the UHI effect to be evident in full force. Virtually the entire state outside of the cities was in the 40s. However, all four major cities remained in the 50s on the hourly reports.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 07, 2017, 04:08:16 PM
A perfect October morning was followed by a perfect October day.  Just in September. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: schneitzeit on September 07, 2017, 07:27:30 PM
Calm before the storm...
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 07, 2017, 11:48:33 PM
It was a crisp 47 here this morning. What lovely weather for early September.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 09, 2017, 08:45:32 AM
It is a picture perfect fall-like morning.  Coffee, hammock swing, and rustling leaves in the cool morning breeze--couldn't be much better.   
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: schneitzeit on September 11, 2017, 09:35:18 PM
Could someone explain why the NOAA temperature outlooks are (usually) faulty? I could have sworn I checked the outlook for this month earlier in the summer and NOAA had the continental U.S. marked with above normal temps.

Anyways, here's the map now, which looks much closer to what we've experienced. Yet they've got the 1-month lead for OND with the same above normal temp coverage across the U.S. What's the reason for this?
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on September 12, 2017, 04:31:11 AM
Could someone explain why the NOAA temperature outlooks are (usually) faulty? I could have sworn I checked the outlook for this month earlier in the summer and NOAA had the continental U.S. marked with above normal temps.

Anyways, here's the map now, which looks much closer to what we've experienced. Yet they've got the 1-month lead for OND with the same above normal temp coverage across the U.S. What's the reason for this?
(Attachment Link)
because they already know that temps will be above average here this winter.... :D
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on September 13, 2017, 04:36:33 AM
long range models indicating ::blowtorch::  see if it holds
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 13, 2017, 09:01:41 AM
long range models indicating ::blowtorch::  see if it holds

Yep, after a long cooler than normal stretch we may flip to warmer for awhile.  But at least a  ::blowtorch:: in late September isn't as bad as a  ::blowtorch:: in July. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 13, 2017, 11:07:53 AM
Yep, after a long cooler than normal stretch we may flip to warmer for awhile.  But at least a  ::blowtorch:: in late September isn't as bad as a  ::blowtorch:: in July.
Amen. I knew we would have another warm spell but we got it whipped now.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Curt on September 13, 2017, 11:43:53 AM
Amen. I knew we would have another warm spell but we got it whipped now.

Yep! Avg temps are on a quick decline starting now through winter so above average isn't as bad. And we won't be anywhere like last September when we had mid to upper 90's solid through early October.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Coach B on September 13, 2017, 12:26:46 PM
Yep, after a long cooler than normal stretch we may flip to warmer for awhile.  But at least a  ::blowtorch:: in late September isn't as bad as a  ::blowtorch:: in July.

Amen!

I'm fine with  ::blowtorch:: from now thru mid December. No matter how winter turns out relative to average there will be plenty of cold and dreary on the way.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 13, 2017, 01:26:35 PM
Amen!

I'm fine with  ::blowtorch:: from now thru mid December. No matter how winter turns out relative to average there with be plenty of cold and dreary on the way.

Agree with ya on that.  I enjoy a mild October, and even November, because we don't ever see much snow then anyway, so it might as well be above freezing until we can cash in on it with flakage!

And nothing beats a nice mild weekend in late October or November after a hard freeze has occurred, allowing us to enjoy the outdoors again without all the annoying biting insects. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: snowdog on September 13, 2017, 03:47:32 PM
Yep! Avg temps are on a quick decline starting now through winter so above average isn't as bad. And we won't be anywhere like last September when we had mid to upper 90's solid through early October.

Hottest football game I've sat through was UT-Ohio last September. The old folks were dropping like flies that afternoon.  ::hot::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Curt on September 13, 2017, 03:49:40 PM
Hottest football game I've sat through was UT-Ohio last September. The old folks were dropping like flies that afternoon.  ::hot::

I was there too but perhaps more entertained by the old 6'5" drunk man who threw up all over the people in front of him in 92 degree heat.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: WXHD on September 13, 2017, 04:10:02 PM

I was there too but perhaps more entertained by the old 6'5" drunk man who threw up all over the people in front of him in 92 degree heat.

Do you always refer to yourself in the 3rd person?
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 13, 2017, 04:14:04 PM

I was there too but perhaps more entertained by the old 6'5" drunk man who threw up all over the people in front of him in 92 degree heat.

For football fans everywhere, hopefully we won't see that brand of heat this fall.

I think last autumn was probably one of the worst I've experienced.  No rain for nearly two months and record heat don't mix in fall fire season.  (I thought I had died and went to California!)   ::panic::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 13, 2017, 04:43:15 PM
The Raiders / Titans game was brutal last year. My stepdad had problems and got too hot. This year was the complete opposite except for my Raiders taking care of business again.  ::pirate::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Crockett on September 13, 2017, 04:46:35 PM
If it weren't for the wildfires, I would take a redux of last fall every year. Sunshine for days on end and warm temps...the weather was fantastic. I don't mind fall-like temps, though, and I'm actually dreading the fact that we're probably gonna see 80+ temps every day for the rest of the month starting Saturday.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 14, 2017, 07:06:35 AM
One more day of the dank, dreary drizzles over here on the east side, then a long stretch of sunny 80's arrive.  Summer's last  hurrah, perhaps.

Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on September 14, 2017, 08:43:22 AM
If it weren't for the wildfires, I would take a redux of last fall every year. Sunshine for days on end and warm temps...the weather was fantastic. I don't mind fall-like temps, though, and I'm actually dreading the fact that we're probably gonna see 80+ temps every day for the rest of the month starting Saturday.

Hopefully, the wet conditions of late would inoculate the region from a repeat of last year if we did go into a long stretch of dry weather with above average temperatures this fall.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 14, 2017, 08:52:24 AM
Impressive statistic for Knoxville so far this September. . .

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJpyqgWWsAEwGeB.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: cgauxknox on September 14, 2017, 09:03:10 AM
Impressive statistic for Knoxville so far this September. . .

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJpyqgWWsAEwGeB.jpg)

Whatever the statistic is this damp and dreary weather has put my dog into full winter mode; she barely wants outside on days like this and is wearing a permanent hole into her bed.  I'm going to be grateful for some sunshine the next few days.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 14, 2017, 09:34:21 AM
Whatever the statistic is this damp and dreary weather has put my dog into full winter mode; she barely wants outside on days like this and is wearing a permanent hole into her bed.  I'm going to be grateful for some sunshine the next few days.

Endless cloudy days with drizzle should remain in winter.

Fall is my favorite time to do some hiking in the mountains, so looking forward to some sun this weekend to get outside. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on September 14, 2017, 11:48:57 AM
The drizzly conditions are finally lifting with a bit of sun peaking through the overcast here.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on September 14, 2017, 11:52:23 AM
Complete sunshine hear. Heating up fast and humidity building... knew I shouldnt close my pool so early... ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 14, 2017, 02:11:41 PM
It took all day, but the clouds are finally breaking here and there allowing much needed light to filter in.  Feels a lot better seeing some patches of blue sky!
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on September 14, 2017, 09:27:17 PM
NOAA released a LA NINA watch earlier today... ::coffee::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: skillsweather on September 14, 2017, 09:40:29 PM
NOAA released a LA NINA watch earlier today... ::coffee::
So is that basically winter canceled already? Great. I need a cold winter to drive up coal stock :(
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Curt on September 14, 2017, 10:54:38 PM
While La Niña in general keeps the coldest air in the Midwest, Weak to moderate ones with a negative Nao can produce some incredibly snowy and cold periods. Hate to say it but no doubt 84-85 will surface as an analog. It had some major warmth early before the bottom dropped out in January. 2010-11 also had similar conditions. I would be willing to bet we see wild swings in weather this winter with cold air available for the dive south at times.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: skillsweather on September 14, 2017, 11:11:54 PM
I know why you hate to say it haha. Every year it seems 84-85 is brought up at some point. But reasonably because it was a good year for snow (so I hear anyways as i wasn't around yet).
Title: Fall 2017
Post by: Curt on September 14, 2017, 11:34:37 PM
I know why you hate to say it haha. Every year it seems 84-85 is brought up at some point. But reasonably because it was a good year for snow (so I hear anyways as i wasn't around yet).

Just a brief look at similar analogs that have a weak to moderate La Niña and neutral to slightly negative PDO- there are lots of snow winners there and a few duds. More later-

Although hint- 1967-68 is a good example
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 15, 2017, 07:19:26 AM
While La Niña in general keeps the coldest air in the Midwest, Weak to moderate ones with a negative Nao can produce some incredibly snowy and cold periods. Hate to say it but no doubt 84-85 will surface as an analog. It had some major warmth early before the bottom dropped out in January. 2010-11 also had similar conditions. I would be willing to bet we see wild swings in weather this winter with cold air available for the dive south at times.

84-85' is a good enough reason to have been born before then and endure being older today.  Glad I was around to enjoy that epic winter. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on September 15, 2017, 08:31:30 AM
84-85' is a good enough reason to have been born before then and endure being older today.  Glad I was around to enjoy that epic winter.
doubt seriously we ever see another winter like that again.... that winter is once lifetime nearly...
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 15, 2017, 09:45:38 AM
I was a sophomore in high school in 85. Lots of fun was had. Late 70s were not to shabby for us old farts either.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on September 15, 2017, 11:29:23 AM
I was a sophomore in high school in 85. Lots of fun was had. Late 70s were not to shabby for us old farts either.  ::snowman::
I was stationed in camp Lejeune  nc... had a substantial long period of leave during Holliday s ... liked to never made it back on base on time due to road conditions ...
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: StormNine on September 15, 2017, 11:36:09 AM
This pattern change is great news for the Northwest and Montana as they finally get wetter and cooler conditions which they desperately need. In matter of fact, parts of Montana are facing a winter storm. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 15, 2017, 03:30:28 PM
I was a sophomore in high school in 85. Lots of fun was had. Late 70s were not to shabby for us old farts either.  ::snowman::

I was one year behind ya.   Best year of school in my life, because we missed over a month and were granted "emergency snow days" and didn't have to make them up!   Ah--good times!
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Crockett on September 15, 2017, 03:34:13 PM
Some folks are telling their age on this thread...and, boy, are they OLD!  ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Curt on September 15, 2017, 03:35:51 PM
Some folks are telling their age on this thread...and, boy, are they OLD!  ::evillaugh::


There's nothing wrong with getting ready to turn 50 these days. Besides it's the new 40.

Seriously- some people in their early 30's around here look like they're living rough.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: skillsweather on September 15, 2017, 03:38:46 PM
2003 honestly was the best year for me that i remember snow wise. At least was the most memorable. That one snow that year and them still having school because they didnt think it would get here until later and it came by like 9am and snowed nearly 9 inchs my dad said. Funny thing was the brunt of the snow fell during the day and thats usually rare to me because i hardly see snow actually stick during the day anymore it seems. Seems most our snows are night time accumulations that day all 9 inchs fell during the peak of the day but i think it was in like early January so thats why. Thats what made me fall in love with winter. Before that i only liked storms lol
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 15, 2017, 04:37:34 PM
Don't know if its because of the recent cool snap, but my autumn blaze maple is blazing already.  Several branches have turned shades of deep red. 

Post Merge: September 15, 2017, 05:10:20 PM

There's nothing wrong with getting ready to turn 50 these days. Besides it's the new 40.

Seriously- some people in their early 30's around here look like they're living rough.

You are right.  I consider myself very, very blessed to have made it this far.  Not only that, but my 4 older sisters are still around, along with my parents (in their 80's) in Kentucky.  I couldn't ask for more. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: StormNine on September 15, 2017, 07:51:34 PM
The good thing is that usually when you have 2 La Nina's back to back the 2nd one is quite different from the 1st one, for better or for worse. The only time off the top of my head that wasn't the case was 99-00 which was similar to 98-99 for the most part, but that was a Strong La Nina. Since our first La Nina in this series was record warmth then it just has to be better for the 2nd in the series (hopefully at least).

To demonstrate:

- 17-18 was very different from 16-17 (we are talking about the La Nina's of 1916-1918 and not the current 16-18 Nina series). 
- 50-51 was very different from the wet blowtorch that 49-50 was.
- 84-85 was obviously different from 83-84
- 08-09 was colder and not quite as crazy as 07-08
- 11-12 was a lot warmer than 10-11   

We have quite the variety of analogs:   

We have 1917-18, 1950-51, 1967-68, and 1984-85 are analogs for the weenies. 

We have 2011-12 as an analog for those who want winter to burn.   

We have 2008-09 as an analog for those who want to have an ice storm and lose power for several days, weeks, and months. 
   

Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on September 15, 2017, 08:01:15 PM
The good thing is that usually when you have 2 La Nina's back to back the 2nd one is quite different from the 1st one, for better or for worse. The only time off the top of my head that wasn't the case was 99-00 which was similar to 98-99 for the most part, but that was a Strong La Nina. Since our first La Nina in this series was record warmth then it just has to be better for the 2nd in the series (hopefully at least).

To demonstrate:

- 17-18 was very different from 16-17 (we are talking about the La Nina's of 1916-1918 and not the current 16-18 Nina series). 
- 50-51 was very different from the wet blowtorch that 49-50 was.
- 84-85 was obviously different from 83-84
- 08-09 was colder and not quite as crazy as 07-08
- 11-12 was a lot warmer than 10-11   

We have quite the variety of analogs:   

We have 1917-18, 1950-51, 1967-68, and 1984-85 are analogs for the weenies. 

We have 2011-12 as an analog for those who want winter to burn.   

We have 2008-09 as an analog for those who want to have an ice storm and lose power for several days, weeks, and months. 
 
i am personally ....for a stronger nina... 98  99... cant get any good severe in spring time... i take a big outbreak in the winter  example january 21, 1999..... ::guitar::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 15, 2017, 08:21:42 PM
The good thing is that usually when you have 2 La Nina's back to back the 2nd one is quite different from the 1st one, for better or for worse. The only time off the top of my head that wasn't the case was 99-00 which was similar to 98-99 for the most part, but that was a Strong La Nina. Since our first La Nina in this series was record warmth then it just has to be better for the 2nd in the series (hopefully at least).

To demonstrate:

- 17-18 was very different from 16-17 (we are talking about the La Nina's of 1916-1918 and not the current 16-18 Nina series). 
- 50-51 was very different from the wet blowtorch that 49-50 was.
- 84-85 was obviously different from 83-84
- 08-09 was colder and not quite as crazy as 07-08
- 11-12 was a lot warmer than 10-11   

We have quite the variety of analogs:   

We have 1917-18, 1950-51, 1967-68, and 1984-85 are analogs for the weenies. 

We have 2011-12 as an analog for those who want winter to burn.   

We have 2008-09 as an analog for those who want to have an ice storm and lose power for several days, weeks, and months. 
 

So, basically, what you are saying is anything can happen.  ;)

Seriously, though, you've done your homework, and I appreciate someone putting effort into their theories and thoughts about what could happen.   


Post Merge: September 16, 2017, 02:41:36 PM
Today's temperatures in the 80's and dewpoints in the lower 60's makin' it feel like summa time again. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: schneitzeit on September 18, 2017, 06:10:51 AM
Looks like we're  ::blowtorch::  ::blowtorch::  ::blowtorch:: until the end of the month.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 18, 2017, 07:14:53 AM
Seems like we are still in the same overall pattern we've observed most of the summer--predominately cooler than normal, but with a 10-15 day interlude of warmer weather before a shift back to cooler again.  The next return to cooler weather could arrive at month's end.  Of course, Jose and Maria might have a say in what happens as they dance around together off the southeast coast of the U.S..   Hopefully, they'll find each other somewhere far, far away. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Curt on September 18, 2017, 09:04:46 AM
Seems like we are still in the same overall pattern we've observed most of the summer--predominately cooler than normal, but with a 10-15 day interlude of warmer weather before a shift back to cooler again.  The next return to cooler weather could arrive at month's end.  Of course, Jose and Maria might have a say in what happens as they dance around together off the southeast coast of the U.S..   Hopefully, they'll find each other somewhere far, far away.

Hurricanes have shaken things up a bit but looks like the trough moves east in about 10 days.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: mamMATTus on September 18, 2017, 06:59:02 PM
That's quite a gust front coming down from Kentucky. I guess this is what will trigger overnight storms.[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: WXHD on September 18, 2017, 09:00:25 PM
That's quite a gust front coming down from Kentucky. I guess this is what will trigger overnight storms. (Attachment Link)

And there's two weird pings on the radar on the temnesseewx homepage.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 19, 2017, 07:46:17 AM
Looks like little, if any, rain will fall in the eastern TN valley over the next 7-10 days beyond a few widely scattered storms.  Considering our last significant rain here was on 9/6, we'll be in dire need of moisture whenever the pattern does get wet again.  Most areas in the foothills had very little rain with Irma--mostly under a quarter inch. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on September 19, 2017, 08:41:20 AM
Looks like little, if any, rain will fall in the eastern TN valley over the next 7-10 days beyond a few widely scattered storms.  Considering our last significant rain here was on 9/6, we'll be in dire need of moisture whenever the pattern does get wet again.  Most areas in the foothills had very little rain with Irma--mostly under a quarter inch.
yeah. We are heading into the dry period says climo wise.... other note...looks to be nice cool down by next weekend with nice frontal passage
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 19, 2017, 10:24:30 AM
yeah. We are heading into the dry period says climo wise.... other note...looks to be nice cool down by next weekend with nice frontal passage

Yes, the 06Z GFS has a nice cool shot toward the end of its run.  It has some of the lower elevations of eastern TN down into the lower 40's for overnight lows, which would easily give the higher elevations of the Smokies temperatures cold enough for their first major frost/freeze.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: StormNine on September 19, 2017, 12:48:55 PM
The CPC 8-14 day outlook suggests more average conditions (minus East TN) with the colder than normal conditions moving into the central USA.  That is progress.  The good thing about this current pattern is that it gives cooler weather and rain to the parched Western states although riding will build back along the West Coast by the start of October. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 19, 2017, 03:14:07 PM
I had hoped today's line of storms would give some needed moisture over here in the foothills east of Knoxville, but the current HRRR has the line totally drying up before it gets here. 

When the rain returns, we'll need it over here.  Leaves are drying up and falling off the trees already, and the increasing dryness will only give an early start to a new wildfire season. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: WXHD on September 19, 2017, 03:29:25 PM
Quarter inch in 10 minutes here. Lost 10 degrees as well. Also has. Pleasure of a lightning bolt hitting close enough to go through my finger while touching metal. How fun!

Post Merge: September 19, 2017, 03:35:08 PM
Now over .5 inches and down almost 20 degrees in 20 minutes.

Post Merge: September 19, 2017, 03:41:46 PM
Up to .89 and counting
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: snowdog on September 19, 2017, 03:42:51 PM
Euro continuing to show a nice cool down in the long range.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: WXHD on September 19, 2017, 04:00:44 PM
Still raining but slowing down. We're at 1.09 in under an hour. Don't see the numbers growing appreciably so we'll probably end up around 1.15 inches in under an hour.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: schneitzeit on September 19, 2017, 09:58:53 PM
We picked up about a tenth of an inch before sunset. The line fell apart before it got here. Eastern Knox county didn't receive any rainfall.

Meanwhile, the whole state of Indiana cashed in today
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 20, 2017, 12:06:16 PM
We picked up about a tenth of an inch before sunset. The line fell apart before it got here. Eastern Knox county didn't receive any rainfall.

Meanwhile, the whole state of Indiana cashed in today

Nary a drop over here in the foothills. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 20, 2017, 10:19:41 PM
We had a SVR warning yesterday and did not get a drop. It moved up the river on west side of county.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 21, 2017, 02:40:28 PM
Welcome to summer time, y'all.  "Enjoy" the next 7-10 days of hazy, hot, and humid weather with widely scattered storms.   
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: cgauxknox on September 21, 2017, 03:44:03 PM
Welcome to summer time, y'all.  "Enjoy" the next 7-10 days of hazy, hot, and humid weather with widely scattered storms.   
Not entirely summer :)  I've been pleased to see that when we get clouds through the air feels quite a bit cooler, a breeze picks up, and leaves fall.  I'll welcome cooler air when it gets here, but we do have a bit of a fall feel even with the warm air.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 21, 2017, 03:55:07 PM
Not entirely summer :)  I've been pleased to see that when we get clouds through the air feels quite a bit cooler, a breeze picks up, and leaves fall.  I'll welcome cooler air when it gets here, but we do have a bit of a fall feel even with the warm air.

Yes, and the lower sun angle probably tempers the heat a bit.  This same air mass in July would have probably pushed temps toward 100 with a stronger Sun. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: dwagner88 on September 21, 2017, 05:31:25 PM
Welcome to summer time, y'all.  "Enjoy" the next 7-10 days of hazy, hot, and humid weather with widely scattered storms.   
We are still so much better off than last year. Just checked the data to refresh my memory. The average high temp for September 2016 at KCHA was 91. Max was 97 on the 25th.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 21, 2017, 06:39:35 PM
We are still so much better off than last year. Just checked the data to refresh my memory. The average high temp for September 2016 at KCHA was 91. Max was 97 on the 25th.

At least we aren't in that pattern--a summer that wouldn't end.  This summer fling will be fleeting. 

I enjoy nice, mild weather in autumn to spend time outdoors, because winter is a dark season & that part I don't look forward to.  However, last fall was simply too hot & dry.  Weeks of smoke filled skies made outdoor fun nearly impossible.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 21, 2017, 08:30:07 PM
I enjoy a warm fall afternoon but these over 100 Heat indexes we are having is not my idea of that. I see what I'm looking for about next Thursday.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 22, 2017, 05:21:15 AM
After a soaking rain (its getting increasingly dry here), I would like to see the 70's we had in August return for a very long stretch of time.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on September 22, 2017, 12:00:03 PM
I enjoy a warm fall afternoon but these over 100 Heat indexes we are having is not my idea of that. I see what I'm looking for about next Thursday.
love these warm to hot afternoons also....
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: skillsweather on September 22, 2017, 03:36:07 PM
I just seen a dust devil. Why is there always dust devils in the fall time more then other times of the year or is it just easier to see them with the leaves ect in the fall? I have seen some in the spring before too but its like in the fall i see them daily almost (if im watching outside a lot).
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: schneitzeit on September 22, 2017, 05:43:28 PM
91 in Minneapolis right now! Is that not a record or close to it?
[attachimg=1]
The ridge is well-defined on this vector map. Hoping it gets here by the end of September
[attachimg=2]
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 22, 2017, 05:45:49 PM
Not very often you see a QPF forecast like this for such a large area of the eastern U.S.:

(http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1506120130)

NO rain at all for the next 7 days. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: StormNine on September 23, 2017, 10:25:10 AM
91 in Minneapolis right now! Is that not a record or close to it?
(Attachment Link)
The ridge is well-defined on this vector map. Hoping it gets here by the end of September
(Attachment Link)

I look at their NWS website and Minneapolis has actually been 90F in October before. Although this is not common for them it isn't something that is historic or wow!! that has never happened before.

It should be noted that last fall had a similar warm spell in late September as well although hopefully that is the only similarity between this fall and last fall. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 23, 2017, 12:57:45 PM
While unlikely in middle and western Tennessee, I'm concerned about drought once again rearing its ugly head over here in parts of eastern Tennessee.  We haven't had a good rain since 9/6 (in the foothills area), and after a week of dry heat, the next front bringing the cool, dry air offers little hope of precipitation on current model runs.  The top soil is already becoming dry (I found out while planting a new dogwood), so after another week of no rain, we'll definitely be entering the "abnormally dry" phase of drought development.  We haven't had nearly the amount of rain here as other areas of eastern Tennessee, and completely missed any significant rain with Irma thanks to downsloping winds over the mountains.  Considering October is normally our driest month, that's not good news in the short term.  Hopefully, November will bring "normal" precipitation, unlike last year. 

Post Merge: September 23, 2017, 03:18:24 PM
12Z GFS has frost worthy low temperatures in parts of the eastern Tennessee valley by 10/1. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: schneitzeit on September 23, 2017, 04:47:02 PM
Omaha, NE reporting 93 degrees.

Harrison, NE, located in the NW corner of the state, reports 40 degrees.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on September 23, 2017, 05:17:29 PM
While unlikely in middle and western Tennessee, I'm concerned about drought once again rearing its ugly head over here in parts of eastern Tennessee.  We haven't had a good rain since 9/6 (in the foothills area), and after a week of dry heat, the next front bringing the cool, dry air offers little hope of precipitation on current model runs.  The top soil is already becoming dry (I found out while planting a new dogwood), so after another week of no rain, we'll definitely be entering the "abnormally dry" phase of drought development.  We haven't had nearly the amount of rain here as other areas of eastern Tennessee, and completely missed any significant rain with Irma thanks to downsloping winds over the mountains.  Considering October is normally our driest month, that's not good news in the short term.  Hopefully, November will bring "normal" precipitation, unlike last year. 

Post Merge: September 23, 2017, 03:18:24 PM
12Z GFS has frost worthy low temperatures in parts of the eastern Tennessee valley by 10/1.
were heading into the la nina enso stage... these tend to be on the drier side of things

Post Merge: September 24, 2017, 12:04:32 AM
gfs starting to look torchy again in the long term ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 24, 2017, 08:06:00 AM
Warmth I can deal with.  No rain for weeks--not so much.  Hickory trees have already started dropping leaves in earnest.  Dry leaves + dry ground = wildfires if we don't have a decent rain soon.

Post Merge: September 24, 2017, 04:43:23 PM
Looks like far western Tennessee received some scattered heavy storms today.  Drier air over here on the eastern side kept us almost completely cloud free.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Crockett on September 24, 2017, 05:07:22 PM
We got under a torrential downpour in northern Knox County (Raccoon Valley area) on our way home from the game yesterday afternoon. It was incredibly localized...typical summer-time thunderstorm. I think we could all stand some rain at this point.

Unfortunately, it looks like the fall-like reprieve we have coming this week will be short-lived, with the heat making a return about a few days into October. I like warmth in its season, but it's time for summer to bid farewell and slink down to the tropics where it belongs...and stay there until May. The heat we have right now is not very enjoyable.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 24, 2017, 06:29:33 PM
...it's time for summer to bid farewell and slink down to the tropics where it belongs...and stay there until May. The heat we have right now is not very enjoyable.

 ::wow:: ::faint::

Ok, who are you, and what have you done with the real Crockett??   ;D
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: skillsweather on September 24, 2017, 06:30:25 PM
I hate this weather. Bring the real fall with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 24, 2017, 07:12:39 PM
Bad news as far as rain goes. . .

Quote

A cold front remains on track to move through the area
Thursday/Thursday night. This system looks less impressive with
each model run. Moisture appears to be quite limited and the
forecast will only have a few northern locations with POPs
approaching 20.


Post Merge: September 24, 2017, 08:16:47 PM
Did some hiking over the weekend and noticed that many of the trees are showing color even at the lower elevations, especially the sugar maples and tulip trees.  Then this evening, I heard a news blurb that colors in the Smokies are expected to peak early this year, perhaps as early as two weeks from now.  They didn't really explain why, but perhaps our cool snaps earlier this month sped things up when combined with our recent dryness.   
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on September 24, 2017, 08:41:50 PM
I hate this weather. Bring the real fall with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
love this weather personally.... only regret i got is... i done shut my pool down for the year... hoping for mid to upper 80 s in october ::blowtorch:: ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Crockett on September 24, 2017, 09:26:55 PM
::wow:: ::faint::

Ok, who are you, and what have you done with the real Crockett??   ;D

The best thing about Tennessee is the four distinctive seasons. It's time for summer to vamoose so fall can have its turn. Then, when next June rolls around, it can be 100 every day as far as I'm concerned.  :P
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 25, 2017, 05:44:46 AM
The best thing about Tennessee is the four distinctive seasons. It's time for summer to vamoose so fall can have its turn. Then, when next June rolls around, it can be 100 every day as far as I'm concerned.  :P

All in good fun.  Best thing about this forum is we should be able to voice our own opinions, likes and dislikes about the weather without someone saying we are wrong in how we feel about it.  It's just weather, not world peace, discussed here. (At least in the weather threads). 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: NashRugger on September 25, 2017, 11:13:31 AM
Burlington, VT (BTV) destroyed their record high yesterday. The old records was 84 from 1961 and yesterday is launched up to 91. Now, THAT is just shocking. They may do it again today and tomorrow.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: cgauxknox on September 25, 2017, 12:07:56 PM
Burlington, VT (BTV) destroyed their record high yesterday. The old records was 84 from 1961 and yesterday is launched up to 91. Now, THAT is just shocking. They may do it again today and tomorrow.
::blowtorch:: Local mets at lunchtime were saying Knoxville will either break or tie for Tuesday and Wednesday this week. ::blowtorch::  Thankfully we're back in the 70s starting on Friday.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 25, 2017, 04:27:36 PM
Fall 2017 is starting to feel like a remixed version of 2016.  Temperatures hitting record highs, and everything wilting and turning brown in the dry heat.  Much cooler weather is coming, but is it just a short term cool snap, or something with staying power?   With absolutely no rain forecast in the next 10 days, wildfires are a certainty in the coming weeks if the dry pattern doesn't break.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on September 25, 2017, 07:21:17 PM
Fall 2017 is starting to feel like a remixed version of 2016.  Temperatures hitting record highs, and everything wilting and turning brown in the dry heat.  Much cooler weather is coming, but is it just a short term cool snap, or something with staying power?   With absolutely no rain forecast in the next 10 days, wildfires are a certainty in the coming weeks if the dry pattern doesn't break.
unless we can sneak in a tropical system... next best chance of rain is bout 10 days out. with a frontal passage... and models indicate the cool down to be temp. thus far.... lets see if that holds ::coffee:: ::hot::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 26, 2017, 05:19:29 AM
One saving grace of the current pattern is the cool mornings, despite the hot days.  Nevertheless, I'm glad to see an end in sight of the current "heat wave," even if temporary. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: WXHD on September 29, 2017, 01:48:29 PM
This is great weather. Late 70's and 44% humidity. Going to air out the basement.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JHart on September 29, 2017, 01:55:18 PM
This is great weather. Late 70's and 44% humidity. Going to air out the basement.
I remember them well ... I had a mood ring and hair back then.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 29, 2017, 03:30:11 PM
So evidently Ryan Maue is at odds with Wxbell so he has paid to offer free Euro maps at weather.us. This will be interesting. The maps are good down to county level.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: snowdog on September 29, 2017, 04:36:08 PM
So evidently Ryan Maue is at odds with Wxbell so he has paid to offer free Euro maps at weather.us. This will be interesting. The maps are good down to county level.

That is awesome. Wonder what happened at Weather bell?
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: WXHD on September 29, 2017, 08:08:52 PM
So evidently Ryan Maue is at odds with Wxbell so he has paid to offer free Euro maps at weather.us. This will be interesting. The maps are good down to county level.

I'm only interested Jan-march. Think the feud will hold?
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 30, 2017, 07:14:50 AM
Awesome Saturday morning.  Feels good to have all the windows open again. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: schneitzeit on October 01, 2017, 12:29:04 AM
Looks like something is brewing off Florida's Atlantic coast. NE Winds have increased in speed along the entire eastern seaboard.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: NashRugger on October 01, 2017, 11:51:10 AM
Looks like something is brewing off Florida's Atlantic coast. NE Winds have increased in speed along the entire eastern seaboard.
Nah, this actually isn't an uncommon local nor'easter. They happen several times a year and this one has a little gusto to it but I went through 3 of this caliber in Jax. Coastal/tidal flooding and very heavy rains are the threats.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: schneitzeit on October 01, 2017, 11:54:36 AM
Nah, this actually isn't an uncommon local nor'easter. They happen several times a year and this one has a little gusto to it but I went through 3 of this caliber in Jax. Coastal/tidal flooding and very heavy rains are the threats.

Thank goodness. Looks harmless now. Any spin out there worries me.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: dwagner88 on October 01, 2017, 02:36:16 PM
Good thing we had a relatively wet summer. Long range is absolutely bone dry through the middle of October. Don't get used to the nice temps either. I don't think all of us are done with the 90's yet.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 01, 2017, 05:42:59 PM
Good thing we had a relatively wet summer. Long range is absolutely bone dry through the middle of October. Don't get used to the nice temps either. I don't think all of us are done with the 90's yet.

Not nearly as wet here as other parts of the state, and already the first signs of dryness showing up in parts of upper east Tennessee.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?TN (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?TN)

After this week, most of eastern Tennessee east and north of Knoxville will probably be entering some sort of drought status. 




Post Merge: October 02, 2017, 02:09:55 PM
To rain or not to rain--that is the question.  Two models, two completely different solutions.  Rooting for the GFS at this point for our next system. 

Quote
Over the weekend the models really begin to disagree. On Saturday
The GFS has another shortwave rotating through the Great Lakes with
a trailing cold front through the Ohio River Valley and down across
the Central Plains. Meanwhile an area of low pressure is moving
northward out of the Gulf and into the Gulf Coast States. This area
of low pressure advances northward Saturday night into Sunday and
transports a considerable amount of moisture northward into our
area. If this model solution is correct, we could be looking at a
very rainy Saturday night through Monday
.

The ECWMF on the other hand is quite different. The shortwave on
Saturday is more amplified and digs further south into the Ohio
River Valley. This prevents the low in the Gulf from migrating
northward and pushes it more NE toward the Coastal Carolinas. This
path would keep us mostly precip free from the Saturday through
Monday time-period.
So for now, relied heavily on Superblend POPs
for that stretch which yielded chance POPs across the board.


EDIT--ok, after actually looking at the GFS run, I'm thinking it has lost it's marbles.  A foot of rain in Knoxville?  It has nearly 20 inches along the mountains.  We're dry, but no thanks on that run.  We don't need that much rain.   

Oh, and it has our first winter-like storm in the mid-west at the end of it's run, as well. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: schneitzeit on October 02, 2017, 07:15:47 PM
Long run looks like a return to average temps with chilly nights. But this week we're going to  ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 03, 2017, 07:13:34 AM
06Z GFS holds its forecast for a soaking rain event next Sun-Mon for eastern Tennessee, though the amounts aren't quite as insane as earlier.  Even so, it has most of Tennessee east of the Plateau receiving a good 2-4 inches of water.  Considering how dry we've been in some areas of northeast TN, those amounts probably will won't cause major flooding problems.   
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 03, 2017, 08:21:06 AM
We could use a rain at my house. A very wet summer but things have dried out quick.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 03, 2017, 01:41:32 PM
I guess we aren't done with the 2017 tropical season just yet.  12Z Euro & GFS are beginning to agree that a tropical system of some sort could be in the Gulf by late weekend.   
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: dwagner88 on October 03, 2017, 02:16:18 PM
06Z GFS holds its forecast for a soaking rain event next Sun-Mon for eastern Tennessee, though the amounts aren't quite as insane as earlier.  Even so, it has most of Tennessee east of the Plateau receiving a good 2-4 inches of water.  Considering how dry we've been in some areas of northeast TN, those amounts probably will won't cause major flooding problems.
Wow. Is this due to potential tropical development? I hadn't checked any model runs since Sunday morning. At that time there was literally no precip at all through October 15, now it shows over 5" in the next 7 days at KCHA. I need to get my winterizer spread on the grass.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 03, 2017, 03:07:12 PM
Wow. Is this due to potential tropical development? I hadn't checked any model runs since Sunday morning. At that time there was literally no precip at all through October 15, now it shows over 5" in the next 7 days at KCHA. I need to get my winterizer spread on the grass.

Yes, both the EURO and the GFS depict a tropical system of some consequence developing in the Gulf by late weekend into early next week.  The GFS has the system coming right up the eastern Tennessee Valley, while the EURO shows the system slipping just east of the mountains after leaving the Gulf.  Either way, we'll hopefully get some needed precipitation.  Good time to fertilize. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: WXHD on October 03, 2017, 04:57:51 PM
Wow. Is this due to potential tropical development? I hadn't checked any model runs since Sunday morning. At that time there was literally no precip at all through October 15, now it shows over 5" in the next 7 days at KCHA. I need to get my winterizer spread on the grass.

I over seeded my yard 10 days ago, coming in well. I wasn't even thinking about winterizing yet. Thanks for the reminder!
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 04, 2017, 07:02:12 AM
Good to see long range models depicting a more active pattern than last year at this time.  Wildfire season is upon us, and a few soaking rains could mean all the difference between a bad season and a non-season. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: cgauxknox on October 04, 2017, 08:47:30 AM
We all recognized that September was a historic month for tropical weather, but I just saw these official stats today that confirm just how heavy a month it was  ::wow:::

Number of named-storm days:  53.25 (old record 52.25, Sept. 2004)
Number of hurricane days:  40.25 (old record 34.50, Sept. 2006)
Number of major hurricane days:  18 (old record 17.25, Sept. 1961)

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/calm-next-atlantic-storm
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 04, 2017, 09:47:34 AM
We all recognized that September was a historic month for tropical weather, but I just saw these official stats today that confirm just how heavy a month it was  ::wow:::

Number of named-storm days:  53.25 (old record 52.25, Sept. 2004)
Number of hurricane days:  40.25 (old record 34.50, Sept. 2006)
Number of major hurricane days:  18 (old record 17.25, Sept. 1961)

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/calm-next-atlantic-storm

Interesting info!  Thanks for sharing.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 04, 2017, 10:12:36 AM
Good to see long range models depicting a more active pattern than last year at this time.  Wildfire season is upon us, and a few soaking rains could mean all the difference between a bad season and a non-season.
Also it is refreshing to see those fantasy land snows showing up on the GFS.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 04, 2017, 02:03:50 PM
Also it is refreshing to see those fantasy land snows showing up on the GFS.

I've been noticing those.  They come and go, but one will eventually "stick."  Even without the snow, the GFS keeps showing some pretty wound up fall storms developing in the northlands.  A sure sign Old Man Winter is ready to make his grand entrance. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: cgauxknox on October 04, 2017, 04:37:30 PM
Knoxville is officially dry enough to register on my personal DDI - the Doberman Drought Index.  This afternoon is the first time my yard is so dry that my Doberman kicks up dust running through some parts of the grass.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on October 04, 2017, 05:47:20 PM
I've been noticing those.  They come and go, but one will eventually "stick."  Even without the snow, the GFS keeps showing some pretty wound up fall storms developing in the northlands.  A sure sign Old Man Winter is ready to make his grand entrance.
im sure its the old carrot front of the ole donkey trick... it just keep pn getting pushed further n further back....
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: harlequin on October 04, 2017, 06:00:20 PM
Huh. Where'd that potential northern Gulf landfalling hurricane come from?
Title: Fall 2017
Post by: Curt on October 04, 2017, 06:59:14 PM
im sure its the old carrot front of the ole donkey trick... it just keep pn getting pushed further n further back....
Lol the western US including Denver metro has already been off the chain snowy for this early in the season. November is starting to look cold on most long range forecasts so I bet a quick freeze happens in the next 30 days.

I’m vacationing in Downeast Maine. They’ve already ended their freeze and frost advisories for the season :) leaves are absolutely spectacular here. Hiking and 60 daytime and 40 at night- perfection.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on October 04, 2017, 07:23:46 PM
Lol the western US including Denver metro has already been off the chain snowy for this early in the season. November is starting to look cold on most long range forecasts so I bet a quick freeze happens in the next 30 days.

I’m vacationing in Downeast Maine. They’ve already ended their freeze and frost advisories for the season :) leaves are absolutely spectacular here. Hiking and 60 daytime and 40 at night- perfection.
i was talking like areas like texas panhandle... kansas northern missouri etc... places outside higher elevations like the western rockies montana... the gfs was showing texas panhandle in fantasy range with some snow.. lol yesterdays 12z run.... nothing unusal for denver getting snow this time year to be honest....
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 04, 2017, 07:52:15 PM
Knoxville is officially dry enough to register on my personal DDI - the Doberman Drought Index.  This afternoon is the first time my yard is so dry that my Doberman kicks up dust running through some parts of the grass.

I really hope the late weekend rains materialize and we get several inches of needed moisture.  We are parched here, and it looks and feels like 2016 all over again.  Dead, crunchy grass, and trees turning brown and dropping leaves with little color.  A good rain now could salvage the rest of our autumn. 


Post Merge: October 05, 2017, 05:22:33 AM
Thankfully, neither major model shows a very organized tropical system making landfall by late weekend.  It's actually hard to even spot the system on the GFS this morning--it's more of a broad low pressure rather than a tightly wound up hurricane.  That would be a perfect scenario--a weak, non-destructive tropical low pressure that would cause minimal damage, but still be able to bring drying areas a super soaking rain. 

Post Merge: October 05, 2017, 05:43:09 PM
Cleaned out all the bugs from the rain gauge in anticipation of an actual rain this weekend.  Almost as pumped about getting rain as a winter snow event--been so long since I've seen any.   ::rain::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on October 06, 2017, 04:11:00 AM
euro is looking  ::blowtorch:: long range...
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 06, 2017, 07:31:39 AM
It's a good thing that a soaking rain looks likely over the weekend for most of us, because after Tuesday, we may have another typical fall mild & dry spell.  Ridging looks to dominate in the east at least through mid-month or a little beyond, as a trough hangs out west.  Some longer range models show a good cold shot toward month's end.  Signs of a pattern change?   ::pondering::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on October 06, 2017, 08:31:29 AM
It's a good thing that a soaking rain looks likely over the weekend for most of us, because after Tuesday, we may have another typical fall mild & dry spell.  Ridging looks to dominate in the east at least through mid-month or a little beyond, as a trough hangs out west.  Some longrange models show a good cold shot toward month's end.  Signs of a pattern change?   ::pondering::
doubt be much pattern change be honest ...typical Nina pattern . Trough West... ridge east...m
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Curt on October 06, 2017, 11:04:09 AM
euro is looking  ::blowtorch:: long range...

CFS November forecast

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171006/a00fb0c24725e1be02078456357aa3ef.png)

Going to be an abrupt change most likely which is par for Enso headed southward
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: dwagner88 on October 06, 2017, 12:52:59 PM
It's a good thing that a soaking rain looks likely over the weekend for most of us, because after Tuesday, we may have another typical fall mild & dry spell.  Ridging looks to dominate in the east at least through mid-month or a little beyond, as a trough hangs out west.  Some longer range models show a good cold shot toward month's end.  Signs of a pattern change?   ::pondering::
I was actually just thinking that every drop of rain we’ve had since the last part of August has been from a tropical system. Without those systems we would have been 100% bone dry. Very unusual to get decent rain from 3 different named storms in one season.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 06, 2017, 02:09:32 PM
Anyone else notice the end of the 12Z GFS run?  Shows a moderately strong fall cyclone centered right over Georgia.  Nice to see those starting to pop on fantasy runs. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: mempho on October 06, 2017, 09:25:50 PM
doubt be much pattern change be honest ...typical Nina pattern . Trough West... ridge east...m
We did this last year and it wasn't a Nina.  We did seem to have fall anymore. 

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Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 07, 2017, 06:24:29 AM
We did this last year and it wasn't a Nina.  We did seem to have fall anymore. 

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It does seem like we only two seasons now, a long Summer and a short Winter with only a short transition period between the two.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: StormNine on October 07, 2017, 08:22:33 AM
If you ever think our weather is crazy just know that Denver is expected to have a Snowstorm on Monday after being in the 80s today. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: mamMATTus on October 07, 2017, 01:46:16 PM
If you ever think our weather is crazy just know that Denver is expected to have a Snowstorm on Monday after being in the 80s today.

And to think I just moved back from there. I have to say I may be looking to move again in 2 years if we don't actually start having a real fall/winter here. It seems as though the extended summer is now semi-permanent. I have to have real seasons and cold weather.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 07, 2017, 01:58:20 PM
I was actually just thinking that every drop of rain we’ve had since the last part of August has been from a tropical system. Without those systems we would have been 100% bone dry. Very unusual to get decent rain from 3 different named storms in one season.

Along with the extended summer warmth, it is worrisome that the last two August into October periods have been exceptionally dry (2016 & 2017).  The only thing that saved us from a repeat of the 2016 drought, as you pointed out, is tropical weather.  But tropical weather is fickle, and many years non-existent.  I hope the exceptionally warm & dry autumns aren't a trend.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on October 07, 2017, 06:46:32 PM
tornado warning for graves and calloway counties  in west ky... wasnt expecting that.... fwiw
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on October 07, 2017, 06:59:14 PM
tornado warning for graves and calloway counties  in west ky... wasnt expecting that.... fwiw

Same cell that triggered the warning earlier in Henry and Weakley Counties, TN.


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Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on October 07, 2017, 07:02:17 PM
Same cell that triggered the warning earlier in Henry and Weakley Counties, TN.


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wow  didnt even know that...  guess i was into the football game...
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: mempho on October 07, 2017, 08:30:53 PM
And to think I just moved back from there. I have to say I may be looking to move again in 2 years if we don't actually start having a real fall/winter here. It seems as though the extended summer is now semi-permanent. I have to have real seasons and cold weather.
I agree - the climate patterns have left a lot to be desired as of late. 

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Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on October 08, 2017, 04:13:21 AM
I agree - the climate patterns have left a lot to be desired as of late. 

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yeah  our climate keeps on getting warmer slowly but surely...  lot peope are in denial over that ...we may never see the great winters like we did back in the 70 s.... :(
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: schneitzeit on October 08, 2017, 07:28:28 AM
yeah  our climate keeps on getting warmer slowly but surely...  lot peope are in denial over that ...we may never see the great winters like we did back in the 70 s.... :(

That's something I won't experience in my lifetime. My parents remember how much it used to snow in the 70s winters (especially in 1977-78). My grandparents recall times when it was common to have snow around New Year's. That seems so bizarre to me, as the chance of any snow between December and March is a big event.

I think Nashville recorded one of its largest 24-hour snowfalls during the January 2016 storm. And that was a very warm winter. We depend on cashing in with a once-in-a-while storm with all the right ingredients. With increasing global temperatures, more energy can enter the atmosphere thanks to warmer ocean temperatures, and maybe we'll see more large storms with some able to produce quite a bit of snowfall. Conversely, we will witness more severe weather outbreaks. In the future, I speculate our tornado season in Dixie Alley will be prime from January-March.

I wonder if people will look back at the winters of 09-10, 13-14 and 14-15 as unfathomably cold. I guess it's all relative.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 08, 2017, 07:54:11 AM

I wonder if people will look back at the winters of 09-10, 13-14 and 14-15 as unfathomably cold. I guess it's all relative.

Yep, someday you'll be the old codger telling everyone on the forum, "I remember back in 20whatever, when it actually still snowed in Tennessee."  ;)
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on October 08, 2017, 09:04:57 AM
Yep, someday you'll be the old codger telling everyone on the forum, "I remember back in 20whatever, when it actually still snowed in Tennessee."  ;)
and by then. Those  will be just considered dustings .... guess  beats nothing
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 08, 2017, 02:34:21 PM
and by then. Those  will be just considered dustings .... guess  beats nothing

I would certainly be happy with multiple "ankle biter" snows over nothing at all.  Give me a repeat of '13-'14. At least if we have plenty of cold air available, chances are better than when half of North America is bathed in tropical-like warmth in January. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: harlequin on October 08, 2017, 03:20:54 PM
I would certainly be happy with multiple "ankle biter" snows over nothing at all.  Give me a repeat of '13-'14. At least if we have plenty of cold air available, chances are better than when half of North America is bathed in tropical-like warmth in January.

I liked '14-'15 better. That was a very good winter here. Did y'all have a good winter storm in E TN in '13-'14? In '13-'14 all I remember here were several torturous high QPF events with temps hardly above freezing. The winter storm in early March 2014 was huge for parts of the Mid-South (up to 6" of sleet), and I got a decent event in Midtown Memphis, but a lot of southern Shelby got nil.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 08, 2017, 03:36:30 PM
I liked '14-'15 better. That was a very good winter here. Did y'all have a good winter storm in E TN in '13-'14? In '13-'14 all I remember here were several torturous high QPF events with temps hardly above freezing. The winter storm in early March 2014 was huge for parts of the Mid-South (up to 6" of sleet), and I got a decent event in Midtown Memphis, but a lot of southern Shelby got nil.

Yes, during '13-'14 eastern Tennessee received several "decent" snows.  That was the winter (January '14) that Atlanta was virtually shut down over 2 inches of snow.  I had 3 inches of Colorado-like powder snow during that one.  It was very cold for several weeks during that winter, and we had several 2-3 inch snow events here, and one 5 inch snow event.  Unfortunately, much of middle and western Tennessee was bypassed by the weak storm systems that either came from the north (clippers), or weak low's that moved up east of the Appalachians. 

But you are correct--'14-'15 was a better year for the state as a whole.  I believe that winter had a pretty epic two week stretch in February.  At least epic by current standards.   ;)
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 08, 2017, 10:12:09 PM
15 was much better at my house. We had several events and even a couple that lasted. In 14 we did have several chances but it was frustrating except for sleet storm in March. We actually got 2.5 inches of rain at 26 degrees in 14.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 09, 2017, 07:18:06 AM
The one thing that '13-'14 did have was plenty of cold air.  Air so frigid that snow laid across the deep south states of Alabama and Georgia, virtually paralyzing travel in both states for a few days.  And it was a very dry, powdery snow--something they are not used to.  I've heard that a dry snow is better to drive on, but after experiencing it that winter, I know better.  As it laid on the road and was compacted by cars driving over it, it turned into a solid sheet of pure ice that would not melt in the cold temperatures.  Give me a wet, slushy snow any day if I have to travel. 



Post Merge: October 09, 2017, 07:26:57 AM
Beautiful sunrise over English Mtn. this morning after a decent rain event (finally).

 (http://i66.tinypic.com/2z8dg74.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Curt on October 09, 2017, 03:45:22 PM
Memphis set a record today- or at least tied it at 90. Memphis NWS is at 92. sheesh 90's. What a coincidence- the old record was in 2010- an analog year.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 10, 2017, 08:37:54 AM
Over 3 inches and still raining at my house. Was not expecting this.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Curt on October 10, 2017, 08:40:21 AM
Over 3 inches and still raining at my house. Was not expecting this.

KMEM pushing 3 inches- they got 1.5 inches in less than an hour earlier this morning. This was way underdone on modeling- all of them.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 10, 2017, 10:23:33 AM
Opposite happening on this side of the state--little rain developing despite models showing it last night.  Just a dark, cloudy day.  Home sick with a bad cold bug.  A nice downpour would alleviate some of the discomfort.   ::rain::

O well, its still peaceful with the windows open and watching the leaves slowly fall in the woods behind the house.  Time for more Nyquil.  ::sick::

Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: schneitzeit on October 10, 2017, 11:00:46 AM
Tropical Storm Ophelia is now a thing. It's positioned near 30N and 40W and expected to become a hurricane in less that two days. It's been developing like a classic Cape Verde storm
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on October 10, 2017, 11:47:47 AM
Tropical Storm Ophelia is now a thing. It's positioned near 30N and 40W and expected to become a hurricane in less that two days. It's been developing like a classic Cape Verde storm

...except that she's way north (not really anywhere near the Cape Verde Islands).  Looks like she'll be heading off northeast below the Azores... interestingly in the general direction of Europe (Iberian Peninsula). It would be interesting if she eventually became a threat to Spain or Portugal, which I don't think happens too often.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 10, 2017, 01:33:41 PM
Sky has really opened up here in the last 10 minutes as a pretty good cluster of heavy showers moves in from the mountains.  It's really pouring down, and taking some of the leaves with it. 

EDIT:
Heavy showers strengthened into thunderstorms as they passed.  Haven't heard the sound of thunder in over a month.  Quite nice on a lazy, rainy day.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: schneitzeit on October 10, 2017, 02:52:46 PM
...except that she's way north (not really anywhere near the Cape Verde Islands).  Looks like she'll be heading off northeast below the Azores... interestingly in the general direction of Europe (Iberian Peninsula). It would be interesting if she eventually became a threat to Spain or Portugal, which I don't think happens too often.

Yeah I thought it was close to that latitude but clearly not  ::rofl:: High pressure system going to steer it NE of its current location? That would be interesting if it threatened Iberia

Post Merge: October 10, 2017, 02:54:45 PM
Duh, I mixed up the Canary Islands with Cape Verde
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 10, 2017, 03:38:23 PM
Had a good .67" of rain this afternoon.  Still humid as summer out, especially for October. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Curt on October 10, 2017, 04:11:42 PM
Cold front knocking on the door of the MS River next few hours with a line of thunderstorms that should develop. NAM has upper 40's by tomorrow morning then cloud cover holding temps in the mid 60's tomorrow. Should be a nice change!
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 10, 2017, 05:12:31 PM
It will be an awesome change considering the dewpoint in Knoxville is currently 75F.  That is exceptionally high by July standards, much less mid-October. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: harlequin on October 10, 2017, 06:56:54 PM
Jonesboro shot up to 94 today and broke another record. All 4 climate sites yesterday broke records, including Memphis at 92.

Thunderstorm developed pretty much overhead about a half hour ago as the front neared. I was pretty surprised with the rain this morning!
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 10, 2017, 07:09:01 PM
Welcome to summer 2017 v2.0.  v1.0 was full of glitches, interruptions, hang-ups and reboots.  This version has all the bugs worked out.  Be warned, some "improved" versions stick around longer than we like.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 10, 2017, 08:59:24 PM
I can confirm that the front has arrived. Thank goodness. Today was miserable.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Cody on October 10, 2017, 11:08:55 PM
I can confirm that the front has arrived. Thank goodness. Today was miserable.
Front will be approaching here shortly. Ready for that wind out of the northwest!


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Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 11, 2017, 05:27:41 AM
After today, summerlike 80's hang around until at least this weekend, when a "real" cold front moves in bringing much better fall weather with highs in the 60's and lows in the 40's.  It's about dang time!  I can finally start using the fire pit and clean up all the yard debris.  Hope the 80's go bye-bye for good.   
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 11, 2017, 09:39:14 AM
Looks like only 80s Friday and Saturday here. Very fall like today. Forecast high of 65.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Curt on October 11, 2017, 11:36:43 AM
As long as cloud cover stay put- temps are going anywhere. Still in the mid 50's nearing noon.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 11, 2017, 11:38:46 AM
Still on the other side of the front over here.  TYS is 77 with a dewpoint of 72. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on October 11, 2017, 12:23:11 PM
The cooler air has definitely filtered in here as the day has worn on. When I first got up early this morning, the official was 72. At the noon hour, the official reading in Nashville is now 64. I haven't been out, but I can tell even inside that it's getting cooler.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 11, 2017, 01:31:45 PM
Despite being a major temperature/dewpoint gradient, the front itself must be weak with little upper support.  No rain developing along it, and little expected.   

Post Merge: October 11, 2017, 01:34:24 PM
Wish I lived a little closer to the mid-state.  I would love to attend this. . .

http://www.weather.gov/ohx/KenTenn (http://www.weather.gov/ohx/KenTenn)
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: mamMATTus on October 11, 2017, 04:31:29 PM
Feels GREAT over in East Nash right now. The last couple of days were disgusting outside. Hopefully we can get some sustained cooler weather after this weekend.
Title: Fall 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on October 12, 2017, 07:38:52 AM
Hurricane Ophelia may threaten Ireland...

(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT17/refresh/AL172017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/084704_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)


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Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Clay on October 12, 2017, 12:04:57 PM
Looks like foliage will be tardy yet again. Very little color here in the city almost halfway into October.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on October 13, 2017, 07:09:11 AM
It appears we undercut forecast lows. Official in Nashville is currently 46.

I believe the lows were forecast in the low 50s. It is foggy. There is a dense fog advisory out.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 13, 2017, 07:22:25 AM
Finally some real fall-feeling weather arriving early next week.  I keep forgetting it's mid-October because it's still so warm outside. 

Post Merge: October 13, 2017, 06:52:45 PM
Sad day for Peanuts' fans.  I just heard the home of Charles Schulz burned down in the California wildfires.  Hate to hear that.  Always been a fan of his, and his work, in my youth.

(https://tse2.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.Y7CQ5_Mh6sGc-tqp3SvbKQDwEs&w=167&h=197&c=7&qlt=90&o=4&pid=1.7)
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: schneitzeit on October 14, 2017, 05:09:45 PM
Higher elevations in East Tennessee may reach or approach the first freeze of the season on Monday night  :) ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: dwagner88 on October 15, 2017, 01:33:18 PM
Higher elevations in East Tennessee may reach or approach the first freeze of the season on Monday night  :) ::fingerscrossed::
GFS has a hard freeze for everyone 10/27. It’s in fantasyland, but it’s the first time freezeing weather is showing up long term.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 15, 2017, 03:22:38 PM
12Z GFS has widespread 20's for overnight low temps over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by 10/29. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: snowdog on October 15, 2017, 03:33:19 PM
12Z GFS has widespread 20's for overnight low temps over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by 10/29.

I'm ready. Bring it on.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 15, 2017, 04:39:24 PM
I'm ready. Bring it on.

At least it's happening "on time" this year.  Last year we didn't have a normal brand of Autumn cold until well after Thanksgiving.

Current temperature here is 78 with a dewpoint of 67.  Feels every bit like a muggy Summer evening, but could it be the final one of 2017?
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: snowdog on October 15, 2017, 07:57:16 PM
At least it's happening "on time" this year.  Last year we didn't have a normal brand of Autumn cold until well after Thanksgiving.

Current temperature here is 78 with a dewpoint of 67.  Feels every bit like a muggy Summer evening, but could it be the final one of 2017?

Last decade it seems like we get less and less fall. Although most of last winter was fall.  ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: schneitzeit on October 15, 2017, 11:46:28 PM
Good morning, Ireland. 70 mph winds from Ophelia will arrive by tea-time. Hope this thing weakens a little
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Cody on October 15, 2017, 11:54:40 PM
What’s that GFS looking like for freezing temps?


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Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Cody on October 15, 2017, 11:56:06 PM
Looking back on my notes in 2014 our first frost was Oct 5.


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Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 16, 2017, 05:06:40 AM
Good morning, Ireland. 70 mph winds from Ophelia will arrive by tea-time. Hope this thing weakens a little

This Earthcam might be interesting to watch today. . .

http://www.earthcam.com/world/ireland/dublin/?cam=templebar (http://www.earthcam.com/world/ireland/dublin/?cam=templebar)
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on October 16, 2017, 08:56:42 AM
Patchy frost possible in the valleys and low-lying areas of the Cumberland Plateau tonight, according to OHX. So, probably some 30s in places- 40s for most.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 16, 2017, 09:01:58 AM
Interesting developments with the teleconnections.  PNA swinging positive after being in deep negative territory for a long while, and the NAO/AO going negative.  Should be a recipe for some colder weather developing over the eastern U.S..   Would be a perfect set-up come Winter. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: snowdog on October 16, 2017, 12:45:15 PM
Interesting developments with the teleconnections.  PNA swinging positive after being in deep negative territory for a long while, and the NAO/AO going negative.  Should be a recipe for some colder weather developing over the eastern U.S..   Would be a perfect set-up come Winter.

Looking at the examples Curt gave, most with a +Oct had a -Nov.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 16, 2017, 01:11:08 PM
Looking at the examples Curt gave, most with a +Oct had a -Nov.

Right on schedule.  Bye-bye summer-time.

Good to see snow cover in Asia rapidly expanding, as well. 

https://twitter.com/judah47?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw (https://twitter.com/judah47?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: snowdog on October 16, 2017, 02:10:43 PM
Euro showing our annual cut off low next week.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 16, 2017, 03:35:32 PM
12Z GFS still very interesting and cold in the long range.  Has a deepening low pressure sliding out of the Gulf into Georgia on 10/28 with a rain changing to snow event over KY and TN as the low bombs up the Eastern Seaboard.  I'm sure no stickage would occur, but wouldn't it be awesome to see snow flying before Halloween?  Quite the reversal from last year with a major plunge of cold air by month's end.  All this does coincide with the PNA going positive and the NAO sliding negative, so well within the realm of possibility. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Clay on October 17, 2017, 12:00:57 AM
0z continues nice blocking set up long range on the globals as the PV dives south. End of October looking chilly for sure..

Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on October 17, 2017, 07:05:22 AM
Had the first "silent night" last night with it being too cold for even the crickets to sing.  All I heard were owls calling after dark.

Car thermometer showed 36 at one point as I drove to work this morning.  Noticed some low lying fields were white with frost. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: dwagner88 on October 17, 2017, 07:08:46 AM
42 IMBY this morning. 37 and very foggy at work in Ducktown.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Cody on October 17, 2017, 07:45:22 AM
Got a little frost here in northern Perry County.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171017/a27c9112fcad6cd3b8e1668e206b98ca.jpg)



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Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on October 17, 2017, 08:36:36 AM
OHX advertising the coldest air so far this fall next week.