Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Severe Weather => Topic started by: Thundersnow on April 26, 2017, 07:15:48 AM

Title: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Thundersnow on April 26, 2017, 07:15:48 AM
Technically, a couple of different systems coming through between now and Sunday. But, they're close enough together with subsequent risk days in different areas to have one thread for now.

First up, today, S AR and N LA look like the prime target with a MDT risk and an ENH risk to the southwest corner of TN.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/pwo_201704261149.html
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: wfrogge on April 26, 2017, 08:38:15 AM
Memphis is right on the line of the SPC 10% TOR hatched area now. Carefully watching the visible satellite images as the day progresses to see how long the clearing stays around. West Tennessee should defiantly keep a close eye on things as the day progresses.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: BRUCE on April 26, 2017, 08:38:25 AM
Spc latest updates 30 min ago. Nudged the enhanced risk further East tad   
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Curt on April 26, 2017, 08:49:26 AM
By the way- Friday already has an enhanced (day 3) for much of west TN. Going to be an active 5 days. Rainfall still looks in the 4-8 inch range.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: wfrogge on April 26, 2017, 08:50:08 AM
So much for golf this weekend.......
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Vols1 on April 26, 2017, 08:56:25 AM
I still think Friday could end up being a surprise mini outbreak for Nashville and west.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: wfrogge on April 26, 2017, 10:01:38 AM
MCD for potential tornado watch for east Arkansas.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Curt on April 26, 2017, 10:07:31 AM
MCD for potential tornado watch for east Arkansas.

It's not even noon and that line is closing in on Little Rock. This timing looks much faster than I originally thought
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: wfrogge on April 26, 2017, 10:17:36 AM
It's not even noon and that line is closing in on Little Rock. This timing looks much faster than I originally thought

HRRR has an interesting view of this system "tilting" more than moving if that makes sense. Will be interesting to see how this plays out
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Curt on April 26, 2017, 10:30:45 AM
HRRR has an interesting view of this system "tilting" more than moving if that makes sense. Will be interesting to see how this plays out

Still has passage at the river at 6-7pm as a QLCS
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: BRUCE on April 26, 2017, 10:48:47 AM
Fully expect spc  have most West tn I. Enhanced zone. Next update after one... looking for latest data short range. ... I'm work.  Tough keeping up
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: StormNine on April 26, 2017, 10:49:52 AM
There is enough of an instability/wind shear combo for damaging winds swaths, hail, and some tornado QLCS type spinups across Arkansas and adjacent areas of other states including TN. There some pretty good low-level shear depicted on the HRRR in E/SE Arkansas and over into adjacent parts of SW TN/W MS even though the instability isn't as great as areas to the south and southwest, so tornadic spinups will definitely need to be watched if the line can maintain itself.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 26, 2017, 11:43:22 AM
Currently 79/68 here.  ::wow::
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: wfrogge on April 26, 2017, 12:04:33 PM
16z sounding from Little Rock
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Curt on April 26, 2017, 12:31:36 PM
Starting to see severe on the south side of the line in SW Arkansas. Little Rock itself **may** be in the clear in an hour or so unless it gets enhanced right on top of them.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: wfrogge on April 26, 2017, 01:22:14 PM
SPC really cut into the tornado watch west of Tennessee with last MCD wording. Strong cap...
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2017, 02:11:06 PM
18z raob from SHV:

(http://i66.tinypic.com/161zzn9.gif)

This is what had me concerned about this threat.  Nearly every skew-T picked between the Tennessee River and LZK exhibited a nuclear cap. 
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: BRUCE on April 26, 2017, 02:36:41 PM
Still. Liking late Saturday going into Sunday...you think same Eric. Per Euro verbatim ?
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2017, 02:50:36 PM
Still. Liking late Saturday going into Sunday...you think same Eric. Per Euro verbatim ?

Saturday is poop.  Friday's the day you want.  And I'm still skeptical to a point.

BTW, new SPC update ditches the MDT.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 26, 2017, 03:28:05 PM
No SVR yet but the storms in ne Ark are looking healthy.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: StormNine on April 26, 2017, 04:35:15 PM
A nice bow echo has formed in eastern Arkansas with two tornado warnings near Brinkley. There may be some uptick in the activity as lower level shear is expected to increase across E/SE Arkansas and into W MS/SW TN.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: justinmundie on April 26, 2017, 05:11:05 PM
Saturday is poop.  Friday's the day you want.  And I'm still skeptical to a point.

BTW, new SPC update ditches the MDT.

What about Sunday?
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 26, 2017, 05:25:00 PM
A nice bow echo has formed in eastern Arkansas with two tornado warnings near Brinkley. There may be some uptick in the activity as lower level shear is expected to increase across E/SE Arkansas and into W MS/SW TN.
That storm is packing a punch. Looks to be coming in this direction.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2017, 05:38:08 PM
What about Sunday?

Lower end threat than Friday, but severe still possible.  Dmg winds + flooding rains main threat but TORs possible.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: harlequin on April 26, 2017, 06:45:23 PM
I always feel skeptical when I wake up to an organized squall line in far E OK/W AR the morning of an event. Still May 2, 2008 did have an intense squall line on the border at 5 am, and I'm sure there are other examples I'm missing.

I thought that Super Tuesday was another example, but the squall line was a broken line of occasionally rotating storms in western AR in the early afternoon in actuality.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: BRUCE on April 26, 2017, 07:01:43 PM
Lower end threat than Friday, but severe still possible.  Dmg winds + flooding rains main threat but TORs possible.
friday is just mainly along the warm frontal boundary to me... dont get me wrong... bad things can happen with instability in place... still like one sunday.. main trough gets ejected out... got watch the cap issues agian though..
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 26, 2017, 07:22:21 PM
Mercy at the rain that has set up in East Ark.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: WXRocker on April 26, 2017, 07:42:52 PM
Things are starting to look a bit lively in Western KY.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: StormNine on April 26, 2017, 07:55:31 PM
Things are starting to look a bit lively in Western KY.

Some 65-70MPH wind gusts reported with that bow echo segment. Not sure how long that one is going to last now that the sun is down and instability should be winding down as well.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Eric on April 26, 2017, 10:53:08 PM
friday is just mainly along the warm frontal boundary to me... dont get me wrong... bad things can happen with instability in place... still like one sunday.. main trough gets ejected out... got watch the cap issues agian though..

Wrong.  Its the entire warm sector under the gun.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 27, 2017, 03:22:25 AM
Still a huge enhanced area for Friday. Looks like a cap might be a factor again.

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.gif?1493280999479)
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: cgauxknox on April 27, 2017, 05:44:22 AM
East TN looks to be mostly out of the game for this round, but we do have almost continuous thunder rolling into west Knoxville this morning.  We were in Middle TN last weekend for all that excitement and I hope that the flooding doesn't get too bad with this round; there and West TN have had a lot of water all at once and things have to be starting out saturated with this new system.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: StormNine on April 27, 2017, 06:54:49 AM
The negative factors here are the cap and potentially the late arrival of low-level jet. There is potential for some pretty good hailers but they will likely be on the wrong side of the warm front and areas south of the warm front look pretty capped.

I'm very concerned about major to even life-threatening flooding in an area spanning from the Ozarks through SE MO/S IL. This area looks to pick up 5-8 inches of rain on top of the heavy rain they experienced yesterday. The topography and karst geology (especially in the Ozarks) is prone to large-scale flooding.   
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Eric on April 27, 2017, 08:06:24 AM
Event Friday looks to take place well north and west of Mid TN if the NAM and GFS suites are to be believed.  I could easily see portions of central AR going MDT as the threat involves a parameter space that is supportive of strong tornadoes.  The environment is capped, but not nearly as strong as the cap evident in yesterday's failed episode.  SREF supports this hypothesis. 

Like Steven said, the likelihood of some flooding looks to be a possibility across the Midwest. 

As far as Sunday goes...I don't know what to make of Sunday.  Got what looks like a decaying QLCS arriving midday with modest instability.  If I'm a betting man and looking for the best bang for my buck, I'm placing money on central AR tomorrow.  To me, Sunday just looks like a ten-ton bag of meh.  Flooding potential is tangible, though.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Vols1 on April 27, 2017, 08:11:48 AM
So nw mid Tennessee is just looking at run of the mill storms tomorrow afternoon and evening?
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Eric on April 27, 2017, 08:18:50 AM
So nw mid Tennessee is just looking at run of the mill storms tomorrow afternoon and evening?

GFS/Euro suites give NW Mid TN some storms, but the NAM doesn't.  OHX going with the GFS/Euro combo.  Could be some strong storms across the NW areas, yes.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: BRUCE on April 27, 2017, 02:30:36 PM
12zeuro. More robust on severe for late Saturday into Sunday period. .... lapse rates  fairly steeo.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Vols1 on April 27, 2017, 02:35:09 PM
Still same for tomorrow evening?
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: BRUCE on April 27, 2017, 02:38:55 PM
Still same for tomorrow evening?
pretty much.  Action along warm.front
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Vols1 on April 27, 2017, 02:40:48 PM
I bet if any get going tomorrow evening they could be pretty strong. I'm figuring I40 north will be where they pop
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Eric on April 27, 2017, 03:27:34 PM
12zeuro. More robust on severe for late Saturday into Sunday period. .... lapse rates  fairly steeo.

For what area, Bruce?  I'm genuinely curious to know what you're seeing because we're NOT seeing the same things. 
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: BRUCE on April 27, 2017, 03:59:47 PM
For what area, Bruce?  I'm genuinely curious to know what you're seeing because we're NOT seeing the same things.
South. I 40 Saturday night. West tn. South. I40 Sunday middle tn... MEG saying all modes of severe weather Saturday night now

.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Eric on April 27, 2017, 04:11:58 PM
South. I 40 Saturday night. West tn. South. I40 Sunday middle tn... MEG saying all modes of severe weather Saturday night now

.

Nothing is happening Saturday night anywhere in TN according to the Euro.  Period.  Point blank.  The "event" you're describing Sat/Sun is across the Ozarks.  There could definitely be "all modes possible" Sunday but confined to AR.  Damaging winds + large hail will be primary threats with the decaying QLCS that rolls through late Sunday.  Friday is the big day.  If it doesn't happen tomorrow it ain't going to.  The data doesn't support it.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: skillsweather on April 27, 2017, 05:33:21 PM
For Middle Tennessee it looks to stay dry until Sunday afternoon. Totally different from how this weekend was looking last weekend when it seemed we was going to have storms and rain all weekend. Oh well. Its like the storms and rain die out before really entering Tennessee at all until Sunday. And even then its just a passing line so we probably will end up with less then an inch of rain out of it all minus a few locations.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: WXHD on April 27, 2017, 08:12:11 PM
U
Nothing is happening Saturday night anywhere in TN according to the Euro.  Period.  Point blank.  The "event" you're describing Sat/Sun is across the Ozarks.  There could definitely be "all modes possible" Sunday but confined to AR.  Damaging winds + large hail will be primary threats with the decaying QLCS that rolls through late Sunday.  Friday is the big day.  If it doesn't happen tomorrow it ain't going to.  The data doesn't support it.

Just you wait. He's going to have pics to prove you wrong!
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: wfrogge on April 27, 2017, 08:55:41 PM
Friday looks like it might be dry for all of us in the state. **** it looks like ill get in 18 holes of golf on Saturday before chasing storms in Arkansas  ::guitar::
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: memphishogfan on April 27, 2017, 10:18:29 PM
Are Dyer and I going to get in on some excitement tomorrow or is this thing trending a little north?
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: skillsweather on April 27, 2017, 10:23:03 PM
Are Dyer and I going to get in on some excitement tomorrow or is this thing trending a little north?
You should be good. Just mainly the further into Tennessee you go the less of a threat significantly. Far North Western Tennessee definitely still in the game from the looks of future radars.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: StormNine on April 28, 2017, 05:41:00 AM
Today just got a bit more concerning for Western KY and NW/NW Middle Tennessee. The NAM 4k and HRRR are now showing a lot more convection and a lot more surfaced based convection. Winds at 850 mb at about 40-50kts and instability in the 2000-2900 range in North TN/Southern KY. Brett Adair is now canceling his trip to TX and is going to be in route to NE ARK/West KY/West TN today.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Thundersnow on April 28, 2017, 06:23:53 AM
POPs are only 20% on this side of Nashville for today and tonight.

This is one of those super tight gradient things on the risks- Waverly in the Enhanced risk today while Murfreesboro not even marginal:

(http://www.weather.gov/images/ohx/graphicast/image21.png)
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Charles L. on April 28, 2017, 07:14:52 AM
The HRRR is pretty concerning for the northern/NW counties today (areas like Clarksville, Waverly, Portland, Dickson, etc). It shows the threat of severe wx arriving anytime after noon today. It pops several very strong storms over these areas.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: wfrogge on April 28, 2017, 07:46:14 AM
Headed to the MO Bootheel to chase in just a little bit. Need to be there by 1 it looks like
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Vols1 on April 28, 2017, 07:56:59 AM
Wow the atmosphere is juiced!!!
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: StormNine on April 28, 2017, 08:21:22 AM
SPC has added a 10% Tornado probability to Western/Central KY and some adjacent TN counties (Tiptonville/Union City to Clarksville).
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Eric on April 28, 2017, 08:32:45 AM
Looking for 70F+ Tds across portions of the midstate.  That's a bit concerning TBH.  Also, bye-bye Clarksville.  #PDSTOR

(http://i68.tinypic.com/345mz3d.png)

Post Merge: April 28, 2017, 09:34:24 AM
Holy ::poo:: .

(http://i63.tinypic.com/106h3ci.gif)
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 28, 2017, 10:01:40 AM
Looking for 70F+ Tds across portions of the midstate.  That's a bit concerning TBH.  Also, bye-bye Clarksville.  #PDSTOR

(http://i68.tinypic.com/345mz3d.png)

Post Merge: April 28, 2017, 09:34:24 AM
Holy ::poo:: .

(http://i63.tinypic.com/106h3ci.gif)
Busy day working for me but I will have an eye on things. That is concerning.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: BRUCE on April 28, 2017, 10:08:03 AM
Looking for 70F+ Tds across portions of the midstate.  That's a bit concerning TBH.  Also, bye-bye Clarksville.  #PDSTOR

(http://i68.tinypic.com/345mz3d.png)

Post Merge: April 28, 2017, 09:34:24 AM
Holy ::poo:: .

(http://i63.tinypic.com/106h3ci.gif)
insane. There.  ::coffee::
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: WXRocker on April 28, 2017, 10:56:46 AM
Looking for 70F+ Tds across portions of the midstate.  That's a bit concerning TBH.  Also, bye-bye Clarksville.  #PDSTOR

(http://i68.tinypic.com/345mz3d.png)

Post Merge: April 28, 2017, 09:34:24 AM
Holy ::poo:: .

(http://i63.tinypic.com/106h3ci.gif)
It's been nice knowing you, sir.  ::cliff::
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: StormNine on April 28, 2017, 12:07:04 PM
The SPC keeps the Enhanced Risk also it is cut back a little bit to the KY/TN border. The biggest concern is from Dyersburg to Paris to Fort Campbell and points north. The cap is probably too strong south of that line.

There is potential for some a few significant storms with a tornado and/or very large hail threat across western/central Kentucky and perhaps adjacent areas of surrounding states. Capping and the potential for storms to cluster up along the warm front will probably keep the number of really significant storms down and just enough for this to verify as an Enhanced and not a Moderate.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Eric on April 28, 2017, 12:23:33 PM
Temperature inversion, FTW.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 28, 2017, 12:27:45 PM
Clouded up here but got juicy quick. 74/68
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: memphishogfan on April 28, 2017, 12:57:36 PM
It makes me sick thinking of what inversions have done to svr chances this week
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Curt on April 28, 2017, 02:52:06 PM
The HRR is about to get its afternoon test. Did it miss the cap or not.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: StormNine on April 28, 2017, 02:54:53 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0578.html

Parts of Middle and Eastern TN are about to get a Tornado Watch. Notice that it includes areas of TN that are not even in the Marginal Risk.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Matthew on April 28, 2017, 02:59:29 PM
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: skillsweather on April 28, 2017, 03:01:58 PM
Lol what it looked like it was going to rain but nothing out there. Then i read Tornado watch for an area that wasn't even supposed to be hit today and the area that was has no rain or storms yet.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: wfrogge on April 28, 2017, 03:03:03 PM
The HRR is about to get its afternoon test. Did it miss the cap or not.

This is what I am waiting for. If noting starts popping in the next 2 hours I'm going back home :)
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: WXRocker on April 28, 2017, 03:05:11 PM
Lol what it looked like it was going to rain but nothing out there. Then i read Tornado watch for an area that wasn't even supposed to be hit today and the area that was has no rain or storms yet.
Looks like Clarksville may get skipped.  As usual. 

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J120A using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: skillsweather on April 28, 2017, 03:07:32 PM
Looks like Clarksville may get skipped.  As usual. 

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J120A using Tapatalk
I think im to far south of the area they are concerned on. By time storms pop up they will be super weak over me or pop up slightly north east of me. I hope not.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: flipman2013 on April 28, 2017, 03:10:17 PM
(Attachment Link)

I may be confused about how the SPC works by why issue this Mesoscale discussion but then not shift the latest Convective Outlook?
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Eric on April 28, 2017, 03:19:43 PM
The MCD was drawn in error.  It was meant to be for KY counties near the warm front.  The entire midstate is under the influence of a nuclear cap.  I think I remember hearing somebody mention that a few days ago...
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: JayCee on April 28, 2017, 03:28:28 PM
The MCD was drawn in error.  It was meant to be for KY counties near the warm front.  The entire midstate is under the influence of a nuclear cap.  I think I remember hearing somebody mention that a few days ago...

That makes more sense.  I was really confused after reading MRX's AFD for this evening.  No mention of anything severe related. 

Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
306 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Saturday)...Quite capped this afternoon
so far, but some convection might be able to break the cap mainly
over and near the plateau this afternoon/evening.  Will have slight
chance PoPs Northern Plateau this evening.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Beth on April 28, 2017, 03:54:29 PM
Good! Granddaughter's  soccer team needs to practice tonight before tomorrow's game. Last weekends practice and game was cancelled! Sorry for the ones who wanted storms though.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Curt on April 28, 2017, 04:06:43 PM
Sunday looks like a big wash out here with the kind of QLCS that brings quick flash flooding
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: StormNine on April 28, 2017, 04:22:16 PM
Sunday looks like a big wash out here with the kind of QLCS that brings quick flash flooding

Sunday has some pretty strong low-level winds so if that can translate to the surface either by gradient non-thunderstorm winds or thunderstorm winds which could be a problem for anyone who gets pretty saturated between now and Sunday. 

As far as today, it is still a little early but there are signs that suggest that the NAM will come out the victor in its battle against the HRRR. 
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Eric on April 28, 2017, 04:27:33 PM
Sunday looks like a big wash out here with the kind of QLCS that brings quick flash flooding

Agreed...flooding looks like the kingpin threat for most in TN.  Hopefully the QLCS passes through rather briskly and doesn't linger.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: memphishogfan on April 28, 2017, 04:59:08 PM
Cloud tips starting to grow here in NEA. Maybe it's starting
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 28, 2017, 05:09:02 PM
(http://i64.tinypic.com/5y82ro.jpg)
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: memphishogfan on April 28, 2017, 05:21:21 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-iFRX3VwAAgdgc?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Curt on April 28, 2017, 05:45:58 PM
Definite cumulonimbus developing in metro Memphis. See a few cells trying to pop in W TN
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: skillsweather on April 28, 2017, 05:49:21 PM
Can see the cap eroding from north to south pretty fast. Where it stops enough is the key at how far south the storms can maintain or form. So far none of Tennessee has cap levels low enough minus the far north western corner but its still to high I guess because no storms yet.  There is a noticeable dip in it in central Kentucky thats the spot we need further south for storms in middle Tennessee. Its not moving though :(
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: StormNine on April 28, 2017, 05:58:36 PM
We are now entering now or never time for anyone along or south of the warm front (aka surface based storms). If these storms aren't able to break through by about 7:30-8pm then that will be all she wrote for surface based storms.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 28, 2017, 06:23:31 PM
And just like that a storm pops near Jackson. Might need to keep an eye on that one.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: wfrogge on April 28, 2017, 07:35:10 PM
And just like that a storm pops near Jackson. Might need to keep an eye on that one.

Could never do anything. Got pretty tall too.....
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: justinmundie on April 28, 2017, 07:44:59 PM
The SPC is not having its best Spring.....
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: wfrogge on April 28, 2017, 07:52:52 PM
Radar in Memphis and Paducah starting to come alive. Might finally be starting
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: StormNine on April 28, 2017, 08:53:05 PM
(http://i66.tinypic.com/5efq0g.png)

Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: BRUCE on April 28, 2017, 11:01:55 PM
it is just not our year  AGAIN.... ::rant::
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 28, 2017, 11:29:20 PM
Very impressive line of training storms from Oklahoma to southern Indiana.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: bugalou on April 29, 2017, 02:02:33 AM
Flooding is going to be the story here.  Very slow moving system with loads of moisture and a good fetch from the Gulf.  Looks like too much wide spread convection to push any severe limits except for a brief window late sat night into Sunday.

Sent from my Nexus 9 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Nashville_Wx on April 29, 2017, 08:51:53 AM
it is just not our year  AGAIN.... ::rant::

What is it that you want ?? What makes it a good year Bruce, major damage and death? This whining over botched severe weather is pretty childish...
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: cliftown04 on April 29, 2017, 09:21:07 AM
I enjoy weather as well as anyone. IMO a weather fan enjoys all aspects of weather. I think this spring has been great I've experienced wind, hail, and flooding. Not to mention been able to monitor multiple severe weather risk days. I think it's been great so far!  We have another round of weather this week! Tornados don't break it for me. Boring weather is my dislike!!!
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: StormNine on April 29, 2017, 09:47:29 AM
I do have to give the SPC credit this time for knowing the limitations of the threat yesterday and not giving into the temptation to go Moderate like it did with Wednesday. 
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: skillsweather on April 29, 2017, 01:25:59 PM
Well the future radars I watched seemed to be pretty accurate the past week or so and its showing a line of storms coming into Tennessee then as it enters Middle Tennessee falling apart and slowing down then reforming in far eastern Middle Tennessee. If thats correct folks in Middle Tennessee probably wont even get half an inch from Sundays rain.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: JayCee on April 29, 2017, 02:04:55 PM
Hard to believe this is happening not that far away from us--almost due west--while we are having record warmth.

Quote
KSZ043-063-076-292100-
/O.UPG.KDDC.WS.A.0002.170429T1200Z-170501T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KDDC.WS.W.0001.170429T0900Z-170501T0000Z/
Scott-Finney-Haskell-
Including the cities of Scott City, Scott State Lake,
Garden City, Sublette, and Satanta
358 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY...

The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for heavy snow, which is in effect until 7 PM CDT
Sunday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

* TIMING...Rain will change to snow this morning and persist
  through Sunday. Snow will be heavy at times.


* SNOW ACCUMULATION...8 to 12 inches with locally heavier amounts.

* WIND...North at 25 to 40 mph, gusting to 55 mph Sunday.

* MAIN IMPACT...Significant impacts likely! Expect tree limb
  damage due to loading on trees from heavy, wet snow and strong
  gusty winds. Power interruptions possible.


Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: bugalou on April 29, 2017, 03:41:40 PM
I hate to "wish" for bad weather but I am really jonesing for a good severe storm.  Haven't gotten one in my neck of the woods since my move back home.  I am in the process of getting a tornado shelter installed in my garage, so I guess I should hope things hold off till then  :o

On that note, MO and NW AR are getting hammered with rain with more heavy convection moving in from OK.

(http://i.imgur.com/BxmYfXm.jpg)
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: NashRugger on April 29, 2017, 03:52:21 PM
You think y'all are frustrated by lack of severe, try Dallas. The front is almost here (bisecting DFW's property right now), the CIN is nearly 0, and yet literally nothing can pop off.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: BRUCE on April 29, 2017, 04:46:16 PM
I hate to "wish" for bad weather but I am really jonesing for a good severe storm.  Haven't gotten one in my neck of the woods since my move back home.  I am in the process of getting a tornado shelter installed in my garage, so I guess I should hope things hold off till then  :o

On that note, MO and NW AR are getting hammered with rain with more heavy convection moving in from OK.

(http://i.imgur.com/BxmYfXm.jpg)
double like from me ... :)

Post Merge: April 29, 2017, 04:47:54 PM
What is it that you want ?? What makes it a good year Bruce, major damage and death? This whining over botched severe weather is pretty childish...
i guess my deception of severe weather is different from most .... >:D
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 29, 2017, 07:48:48 PM
Things have picked up this afternoon. Most active day so far . Dozens of SVR and three TORs at the moment. Healthy looking storms headed in the Memphis direction.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: StormNine on April 29, 2017, 07:57:08 PM
My concern for life-threatening flooding across the Ozarks, SE MO, into S IL is, unfortunately, becoming a reality. Branson and areas north of West Plains are under a Flash Flood Emergency and heavy rain is moving across SE MO/S IL, which experienced flooding last night this morning.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 29, 2017, 08:04:03 PM
My concern for life-threatening flooding across the Ozarks, SE MO, into S IL is, unfortunately, becoming a reality. Branson and areas north of West Plains are under a Flash Flood Emergency and heavy rain is moving across SE MO/S IL, which experienced flooding last night this morning.
Agree and you know what they say about stuff going down hill. Gonna be a big Mississippi River here. Was already closing in on flood stage when this started.

Post Merge: April 29, 2017, 08:05:42 PM
SVR for all of Memphis area. Nice bow moving in.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: JayCee on April 29, 2017, 08:28:29 PM
double like from me ... :)

Post Merge: April 29, 2017, 04:47:54 PM
i guess my deception of severe weather is different from most .... >:D

Deception?  You mean you're attempting to deceive us here?  Surely the holder of the sacred funnel pic would not stoop to such a level.   ::faint::
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: harlequin on April 29, 2017, 09:15:54 PM
Some wind damage and power outage reports coming in from Downtown.

20+ power poles down in Walls, MS just sw of the city.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 29, 2017, 09:23:57 PM
Looks to be merging with stalled front to the north. Probably gonna be wet wet night.

Post Merge: April 30, 2017, 12:57:56 AM
TOR between Little Rock and Memphis. The line of storms that has built up in eastern Arkansas looks very intense.

Post Merge: April 30, 2017, 01:04:45 AM
Now 2 TORs. The second is just west is Jonesboro. These look like spin ups on a very intense line that has formed.

Post Merge: April 30, 2017, 01:12:19 AM
Now a third.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/1zq97c3.jpg)
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Thundersnow on April 30, 2017, 08:06:06 AM
Confirmed tornadoes in MS this morning. Slight risk does include western half TN and extends from the Gulf coast to the Great Lakes.


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Post Merge: April 30, 2017, 08:25:20 AM
As mentioned in the other thread, I wonder if the intense activity on the Gulf Coast mitigates what we see further north today.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: harlequin on April 30, 2017, 08:30:00 AM
Probable tornado on the ground in Bolton, MS.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 30, 2017, 09:41:16 AM
Just had a warning here for a tornado on the ground. It never was on any velocity scan. MEG tweeted this pick from coefficient.



(http://i67.tinypic.com/b8n3ac.jpg)
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: harlequin on April 30, 2017, 11:41:05 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.gif)

Busy morning in central MS. And I'm sure there are other spin-ups that will be confirmed. My sister goes to grad school in Clinton and has extensive wind damage throughout her neighborhood.

I drove friends to the airport this morning and police were detouring cars off Airways. Plenty of large limbs and some dead trees down.

Wake low coming through here right now.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 30, 2017, 12:38:51 PM
The last 10 hours has been really active here. We have had 2 SVR and 2 TOR. We also just reached 4 inches of rain.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Thundersnow on April 30, 2017, 01:52:36 PM
TOR watch...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0183.html


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Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: StormNine on April 30, 2017, 01:53:53 PM
https://www.facebook.com/lovergirlynne/posts/10212732782103933

Here are pictures of the flooding in West Plains, MO. This event appears to be the Ozark's version of May 2010.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Thundersnow on April 30, 2017, 01:56:47 PM
Portion of MCD related to watch issuance...


Quote
SUMMARY...Threat for isolated damaging wind and a couple of
   tornadoes is expected to increase this afternoon over middle
   Tennessee into southern Kentucky. Also additional storms farther
   west across north central AL should eventually move into northeast
   AL and northwest GA. A ww will likely be issued downstream from ww
   182 prior to 19Z.


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Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: skillsweather on April 30, 2017, 02:05:08 PM
The line is so progressive now so it seems once the lines through we are done pretty much?
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Charles L. on April 30, 2017, 02:16:08 PM
The line is so progressive now so it seems once the lines through we are done pretty much?

Yes. Once that line passes you the threat is over.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Curt on April 30, 2017, 03:13:34 PM
 All this while western Kansas is dealing with 14-18 inch amounts and blizzard warnings in late april. That area has always fascinated me.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: WXRocker on April 30, 2017, 03:15:32 PM
Because Kansas.  Where it's either Blizzard season,  Tornado season or Dust Bowl.

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Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Eric on April 30, 2017, 04:07:16 PM
Big ole bag of meh, short of a few downed trees/powerpole reports.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: WXRocker on April 30, 2017, 04:08:12 PM
Barely got rain here.   Meh.

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Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Charles L. on April 30, 2017, 04:11:28 PM
Our worst gusts (which I would guesstimate to have been ~50 mph) lasted all of 10-15 seconds right as soon as the heavy rain started.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Thundersnow on April 30, 2017, 04:21:49 PM
All this while western Kansas is dealing with 14-18 inch amounts and blizzard warnings in late april. That area has always fascinated me.

Yep- the High Plains are an interesting area for sure... with elevations approaching those of the Smokies
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2017, 04:53:30 PM
Big ole bag of meh, short of a few downed trees/powerpole reports.
true... whats sad is... thats best its done severe wise since these chances started back earlier last week...
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: cbrentv318 on April 30, 2017, 05:06:29 PM
Big ole bag of meh, short of a few downed trees/powerpole reports.
Was this event worthy of a Tornado watch? Not being rude just asking.


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Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: BRUCE on April 30, 2017, 05:33:47 PM
Was this event worthy of a Tornado watch? Not being rude just asking.


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none... so ever...
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: WXRocker on April 30, 2017, 05:35:27 PM
Was this event worthy of a Tornado watch? Not being rude just asking.


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Not in my opinion.   The SPC seems to be erring on the side of caution.

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Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: skillsweather on April 30, 2017, 05:56:51 PM
Was this event worthy of a Tornado watch? Not being rude just asking.


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They even knew it wasn't. The post about the watch said isolated severe storms and possibility of tornadoes. The line itself was pretty weak as well.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 30, 2017, 06:51:47 PM
Mostly tree damage here. There was one big tree on a house and car. Other than that lots of rain . Exactly 4 inches. Got a buddy who lives right on Current River and he is cut off from getting anywhere. The Current and White Rivers have broke all time high records and are still rising. Bad situation for a large area.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: StormNine on April 30, 2017, 07:08:50 PM
There were 2 wind-related fatalities today in Middle TN. Not sure if the one in the Nashville area was a thunderstorm or non-thunderstorm wind event. Although the event was pretty low-end in relation to other QLCS or other severe events it was still enough to be deadly. We don't always need long tracked supercells to make for a tragic day/night.

Edit: The other fatality was in the Fayetteville area (Lincoln County).
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Matthew on April 30, 2017, 08:21:33 PM
Big ole bag of meh, short of a few downed trees/powerpole reports.

Not even the amounts of heavy rain that was expected.  The severe thunderstorm warning was as pitiful one as I have ever been under.

Go PREDS!!!!
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Eric on April 30, 2017, 10:59:22 PM
Was this event worthy of a Tornado watch? Not being rude just asking.


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I think the watch was in response to the TOR warned storms coming out of N AL at the time.  I honestly didn't think our atmosphere was as conducive to severe weather as the SPC thought it was but I'm just me.
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: Brian on May 01, 2017, 12:03:29 PM
https://twitter.com/noaasatellites/status/859034797632610309 (https://twitter.com/noaasatellites/status/859034797632610309)
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: bugalou on May 01, 2017, 01:06:42 PM
Ended up with some marble sized hail here during the Saturday night storms, but thats about it.  The heavy rain threat here didn't seem to materialize like it did further west.  Still nice to have something to follow. Next!

Edit:  Screen shot I grabbed of the incoming hail producing cell:
(http://i.imgur.com/9KOOsoc.png)
Title: Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
Post by: BRUCE on May 01, 2017, 01:28:32 PM
Ended up with some marble sized hail here during the Saturday night storms, but thats about it.  The heavy rain threat here didn't seem to materialize like it did further west.  Still nice to have something to follow. Next!

Edit:  Screen shot I grabbed of the incoming hail producing cell:
(http://i.imgur.com/9KOOsoc.png)
appreciate a good storm fan like you bug... im like you... ready for some good system to follow.... glad the heavy rain event didnt pan out for us... but i just hope after this little cool spell starting out this month may...i hope we just get another good shot later in may before things trend up to the north and plains states... be nice to get least moderate day that pans out pretty well for us severe wx lovers... ::fingerscrossed::