Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => General Weather => Topic started by: StormNine on February 11, 2017, 11:29:07 AM

Title: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: StormNine on February 11, 2017, 11:29:07 AM
Since it is increasingly looking like we are due for an early spring (we can call it sprinter till at least March 1st) it is time to start the thread
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: rbowman on February 11, 2017, 11:35:54 AM
As a sufferer of terrible pollen allergies, i absolutely HATE spring!

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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Matthew on February 11, 2017, 11:45:23 AM
60's & 70's next weekend will make it feel like spring for sure. Neighbors already mowing yards today.  My yard is greening up quickly.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: StormNine on February 11, 2017, 11:49:35 AM
As a sufferer of terrible pollen allergies, i absolutely HATE spring!

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It is already starting for me. Allergy issues usually don't pick up till March for me.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on February 11, 2017, 12:15:54 PM
It is already starting for me. Allergy issues usually don't pick up till March for me.

In addition to early allergies--I've noticed mosquitos already out.  I went walking along the Pigeon River this morning, and I saw swarms of them along the river.  That doesn't bode well for the summer season.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: WXHD on February 11, 2017, 12:27:19 PM
As a sufferer of terrible pollen allergies, i absolutely HATE spring!

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Flonase has been my savior. It works wonderfully as a preventer.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: rbowman on February 11, 2017, 12:35:37 PM
Flonase has been my savior. It works wonderfully as a preventer.
Oh believe me.  I do flonase daily. Along with an Allegra tablet.  It still doesn't get me through the worst of spring.

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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on February 11, 2017, 01:10:52 PM
60's & 70's next weekend will make it feel like spring for sure. Neighbors already mowing yards today.  My yard is greening up quickly.
done broke out the ol riding mower already... testing her up... mowed over some old green wild onions in the process...
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on February 11, 2017, 02:24:25 PM
I have to admit, I'm enjoying this mild February weekend in shorts and a t-shirt out on the deck far more than I did the weather of July-October last year.  It does feel good outside, and I'm not a fan of the type of dry heat we had last Summer and Fall. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Hank W on February 11, 2017, 04:36:43 PM
Currently 78° with a heat index of 80 at MEM. Many Redbuds and other flowering trees are in full bloom. I definitely fear for an Easter 2007 repeat.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: mempho on February 11, 2017, 10:21:43 PM
Currently 78° with a heat index of 80 at MEM. Many Redbuds and other flowering trees are in full bloom. I definitely fear for an Easter 2007 repeat.
99 in Oklahoma today!   That just makes me feel like throwing up...

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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: skillsweather on February 11, 2017, 10:25:24 PM
99 in Oklahoma today!   That just makes me feel like throwing up...

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Thats a record high surely right? lol
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: mempho on February 12, 2017, 08:10:34 AM
Thats a record high surely right? lol
I believe it's a state record high for February.   

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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: snowdog on February 12, 2017, 11:52:35 AM
99 in Oklahoma today!   That just makes me feel like throwing up...

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That doesn't even seem possible.  Has this been verified?
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Crockett on February 12, 2017, 12:19:38 PM
That doesn't even seem possible.  Has this been verified?

I thought the same.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: snowdog on February 12, 2017, 12:33:58 PM
I thought the same.

I would wager that it was an erroneous reading. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on February 12, 2017, 01:18:33 PM
77F here at 2:00 in the afternoon on February 12th.  Almost 80 in the middle of Winter.  Equally unbelievable as Oklahoma's temperature reading of 99.   This sets a new standard for the term winter "torch."  It used to mean temps in the 60's. 

I have all the windows open, and it actually feels hot out in the sun while I was out cleaning up the yard.  Crazy for this time of year.   
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: mempho on February 12, 2017, 01:27:17 PM
I would wager that it was an erroneous reading.
There were many places on the 90s in Oklahoma yesterday.   I'm sure the temp will need validation,  but the high temps were hardly isolated.   The Magnum report was at an Oklahoma Mesonet site and was only a single degree higher than the nearby reporting stations in Altus. Crazy stuff.  Now,  to be fair,  there was probably a significant downsloping component. Here are some temps: 

Magnum  99
Altus AFB 98
Altus Regional Airport 98
Frederick 95
Elk City 95
El Reno  90
OKC  89
Norman 88

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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: mempho on February 12, 2017, 01:35:01 PM
I would wager that it was an erroneous reading.
Maybe,  but look at all the nearby readings I just posted.   If it's an error,  it's unlikely that the Oklahoma state record high for February isn't at least 98.

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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on February 12, 2017, 01:59:18 PM
I would wager that it was an erroneous reading.
those reading were actually accurate and correct... very dry air in place...early start to summer it appears this year... ::hot::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: mempho on February 12, 2017, 08:25:03 PM
those reading were actually accurate and correct... very dry air in place...early start to summer it appears this year... ::hot::
So,  don't you find it odd that there's all this warmth in February and no severe weather to speak of?

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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on February 12, 2017, 08:34:12 PM
So,  don't you find it odd that there's all this warmth in February and no severe weather to speak of?

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had a friend to ask that same thing today...overall the flow has been to flat to produce much in way severe wx... course had nice little event along gulf coast week or so ago... but starting to like things down road tad bit... 20th beyond... pacific jet sub tropical jet modeled to really ramp up... euro starting to hint a possible event in later frames... something to keep eye on... as we start to see some buckling of the jet with the trough moving in from the sw...
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: mempho on February 12, 2017, 08:59:29 PM
had a friend to ask that same thing today...overall the flow has been to flat to produce much in way severe wx... course had nice little event along gulf coast week or so ago... but starting to like things down road tad bit... 20th beyond... pacific jet sub tropical jet modeled to really ramp up... euro starting to hint a possible event in later frames... something to keep eye on... as we start to see some buckling of the jet with the trough moving in from the sw...
I can't recall ever seeing anything like this winter.   It's just odd.   

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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Clay on February 12, 2017, 09:39:13 PM
I can't recall ever seeing anything like this winter.   It's just odd.   

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This is the warmest start to meteorological winter at BNA in my 25 years. I'll add that 3 of the warmest winters during that period occurred during the last 5 years. 2010s are really bringing the torch.

Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on February 12, 2017, 11:40:17 PM
good gracious the 0z gfs... fixing to get very active on stormy side of things... that sub tropical jet is insane on this run... I leave it at that for now ::coffee::

Post Merge: February 12, 2017, 11:52:14 PM
here we go...http://southernwx.com/community/attachments/gfs_uv250_us_32-png.128/
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on February 13, 2017, 05:27:29 AM
Knoxville's official high on Sunday was 77, breaking the previous record high of 76.   ::blowtorch::  I spent all day with all the windows in the house open, in February, and it got to 72 inside before the sun set and it started cooling off in the evening.  Now I'm waiting like everyone else to see what the 10 day pattern change brings us.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: snowdog on February 13, 2017, 08:26:36 AM
Knoxville's official high on Sunday was 77, breaking the previous record high of 76.   ::blowtorch::  I spent all day with all the windows in the house open, in February, and it got to 72 inside before the sun set and it started cooling off in the evening.  Now I'm waiting like everyone else to see what the 10 day pattern change brings us.

00z Euro says it will bring more open window days than closed. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on February 13, 2017, 08:35:30 AM
00z Euro says it will bring more open window days than closed.
and pretty much so says the extended gfs... maybe a day so closed window nights...

Post Merge: February 13, 2017, 01:30:47 PM
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/f192.gif... this is so close to something major... teleconnections say this goes north... other boards such as American and most other weather boards I read think this has the makng for a big huge severe wx outbreak... think folks from the arkaltex to the lower ohio valley need pay close attention towards later month... the h5 pattern is screaming a vilotale situation... this thing even is close to a triple phaser on this look on todays euro ::coffee::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: StormNine on February 13, 2017, 03:33:43 PM
good gracious the 0z gfs... fixing to get very active on stormy side of things... that sub tropical jet is insane on this run... I leave it at that for now ::coffee::

Post Merge: February 12, 2017, 11:52:14 PM
here we go...http://southernwx.com/community/attachments/gfs_uv250_us_32-png.128/

It is interesting to note the subtropical jet because we are now in ENSO Neutral and look to gradually heat to Warm Neutral or even Weak El-Nino as we go into the spring, summer, and fall of 2017. The idea of a double dose of Nina doesn't appear to be on the table anymore. I wonder if perhaps the ENSO shift may contribute to that being a significant fixture into the spring months.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 13, 2017, 06:23:46 PM
Does anyone ever go and read the blog Bering Sea Rule ? Sort of interesting and their method of forecasting predicted a major severe outbreak between Feb 15 and 23.  This forecast was on Jan 23. It very well might not happen but it is interesting. I have sort of kept up with it the last couple years and they seem to be good at picking up major patterns way before models.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Eric on February 13, 2017, 07:25:07 PM
Does anyone ever go and read the blog Bering Sea Rule ? Sort of interesting and their method of forecasting predicted a major severe outbreak between Feb 15 and 23.  This forecast was on Jan 23. It very well might not happen but it is interesting. I have sort of kept up with it the last couple years and they seem to be good at picking up major patterns way before models.

Theres certainly indications that this might be a thing.  If they called that THAT far out, they deserve a cold beer.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on February 13, 2017, 07:36:57 PM
Does anyone ever go and read the blog Bering Sea Rule ? Sort of interesting and their method of forecasting predicted a major severe outbreak between Feb 15 and 23.  This forecast was on Jan 23. It very well might not happen but it is interesting. I have sort of kept up with it the last couple years and they seem to be good at picking up major patterns way before models.
the upper air pattern being modeled screams trouble... for sure... been watching this last few runs...

Post Merge: February 13, 2017, 07:38:49 PM
Does anyone ever go and read the blog Bering Sea Rule ? Sort of interesting and their method of forecasting predicted a major severe outbreak between Feb 15 and 23.  This forecast was on Jan 23. It very well might not happen but it is interesting. I have sort of kept up with it the last couple years and they seem to be good at picking up major patterns way before models.
you happen have a link to this dyer... interesting in reading this for sure  thanks :)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 13, 2017, 10:59:32 PM
http://blog.organicforecasting.com/?m=1


They use weather occurring in the Bering Sea to forecast what will happen here in 2.5 to 3 weeks.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on February 14, 2017, 12:36:56 AM
http://blog.organicforecasting.com/?m=1


They use weather occurring in the Bering Sea to forecast what will happen here in 2.5 to 3 weeks.
absolutely incredible
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: WXHD on February 14, 2017, 08:46:59 AM
Had a breif round of sleet around 615 this morning at my house.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Matthew on February 15, 2017, 07:32:27 AM
Well after today looks like light jackets & short sleeves are up.  Heck looks like shorts on Sun.!  Everything will be budding & blooming or close to it after the next 10-15 days. So here is to hopefully no hard freeze because there is no turning back nature. Gosh take away the 2" we had & this would be worst winter ever.  Almost a shut out.  Will be interesting to see ranking of how warm this winter was & how many times below freezing temps.  were achieved. & what average temps. thru the winter were.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on February 15, 2017, 07:49:43 AM
Well after today looks like light jackets & short sleeves are up.  Heck looks like shorts on Sun.!  Everything will be budding & blooming or close to it after the next 10-15 days. So here is to hopefully no hard freeze because there is no turning back nature. Gosh take away the 2" we had & this would be worst winter ever.  Almost a shut out.  Will be interesting to see ranking of how warm this winter was & how many times below freezing temps.  were achieved. & what average temps. thru the winter were.

I'd say it's almost a guarantee we'll have at least a few more nights near or below freezing, and probably even a hard freeze at some point.  It's way too early for stuff to be blooming out.  But like you said, you can't turn back nature.  Hopefully, the damage won't be too bad.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: mempho on February 20, 2017, 04:14:19 AM
This has been a long run of hot weather-going back to the last summer.   

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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: StormNine on February 20, 2017, 06:54:18 AM
I'd say it's almost a guarantee we'll have at least a few more nights near or below freezing, and probably even a hard freeze at some point.  It's way too early for stuff to be blooming out.  But like you said, you can't turn back nature.  Hopefully, the damage won't be too bad.

If we hard freeze I just hope it is early March and not late March-April.  It would be a disaster if it is late March-April.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on February 21, 2017, 01:36:36 PM
If we hard freeze I just hope it is early March and not late March-April.  It would be a disaster if it is late March-April.

Totally agree.  I'm glad we have a cool down of sorts coming this weekend to hopefully slow down the vegetation from budding and leafing out.  I really don't want to 2007 repeat.   

Here's a good graphic I borrowed from the KY Weather Center to show our temperature roller coaster over the next few weeks. 

(http://kyweathercenter.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/gfs.gif)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on February 21, 2017, 04:46:50 PM
EPS getting nearly unanimous on a significant cool down in 2 weeks. Its starts with a major arctic front in the northern plains then moves south and east to bank up against the apps. I have a feeling severe weather season may have to wait until later in March if this is the case.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on February 21, 2017, 04:51:42 PM
Hopefully, the cool down can arrive before the early emerging vegetation gets too far on its way.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Clay on February 21, 2017, 05:31:21 PM
I'm sure once we get out of the climatological window for accumulating snow, like magic, blocking will reappear and the floodgates will open.. i.e. Spring 2013.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on February 21, 2017, 05:34:44 PM
Eastern Red Cedar (Juniper) pollen has already reached Spring time levels, and I can feel it.  Allergies I usually acquire a month from now have already kicked it.   ::cough::  There are literally forests of Cedar around here on old abandoned farms, so there's no escaping it. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on February 21, 2017, 05:43:04 PM
Eastern Red Cedar (Juniper) pollen has already reached Spring time levels, and I can feel it.  Allergies I usually acquire a month from now have already kicked it.   ::cough::  There are literally forests of Cedar around here on old abandoned farms, so there's no escaping it.
trust me  I know... today my head feels like its been in a vise all day today... eyes starting to itch and getting red... sneezing to boot... cant remember my allergies starting to effect me this early before... ever ::bangingheadintowall::

Post Merge: February 21, 2017, 06:05:41 PM
EPS getting nearly unanimous on a significant cool down in 2 weeks. Its starts with a major arctic front in the northern plains then moves south and east to bank up against the apps. I have a feeling severe weather season may have to wait until later in March if this is the case.
still looking like brunt of that air goes northeast on most ensembles ... we catch a glancing blow with that pretty much in and out like its been... so hopefully nothing major to worry about...
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on February 21, 2017, 06:09:44 PM
Hard to believe that two years ago around this time in February, we were having ice, snow and some serious cold with temps near or below 0.  Ah, memories. 

If I had the time and was melodramatic, I would post pics of that winter to the song, "The Way We Were. ::candle:: . ."   But I don't, and I'm not, so I won't.   ;D
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: StormNine on February 21, 2017, 06:12:41 PM
The NWS of Austin/San Antonio surveyed a straight line wind event from when those tornadoes occurred in the San Antonio area and they estimated a storm in Williamson County, TX produced 118-138MPH wind gusts. That is quite incredible.
Title: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on February 21, 2017, 07:16:28 PM
trust me  I know... today my head feels like its been in a vise all day today... eyes starting to itch and getting red... sneezing to boot... cant remember my allergies starting to effect me this early before... ever ::bangingheadintowall::

Post Merge: February 21, 2017, 12:05:41 PM
still looking like brunt of that air goes northeast on most ensembles ... we catch a glancing blow with that pretty much in and out like its been... so hopefully nothing major to worry about...


Sorry man EPS says cool down here. For those in North and south Carolina and Georgia- it does glance. All subject to change but this warm pattern isn't sustainable.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on February 21, 2017, 07:38:03 PM
https://i.imgur.com/e5L9igy.jpg... interesting little tid bit I ran across today...

Post Merge: February 21, 2017, 07:39:50 PM
occurred on this date in 1971... the miss. delta tornado outbreak...

Post Merge: February 21, 2017, 07:44:08 PM
https://i.imgur.com/fwewlQc.png... all the ef4  ef5 tornadoes that have occurred since the year 1950... interesting...

Post Merge: February 21, 2017, 07:52:00 PM
https://i.imgur.com/fdFir6T.png...   tornado deaths since year 1990... per state
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on February 22, 2017, 07:13:14 AM

Sorry man EPS says cool down here. For those in North and south Carolina and Georgia- it does glance. All subject to change but this warm pattern isn't sustainable.

I hope the active/changeable weather pattern brings more rain.  Already about 2.5" below normal for the year here, and that doesn't include the deficit left over from last year.   
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: StormNine on February 22, 2017, 03:08:56 PM
Nothing like a severe QLCS going through Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and SW Ontario in February and yet that is a possibility on Friday.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on February 22, 2017, 05:06:30 PM
Ober Gatlinburg closed early for the season.  Per local news source, the last time it happened was in '07-'08.  With well above freezing temperatures even at night, it's simply too expensive to keep snow on the ground.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on February 23, 2017, 06:27:00 AM
Slight risk is nudging down into TN tomorrow, from around Clarksville to upper Cumberland area:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day2otlk_20170223_0700.html
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 23, 2017, 07:29:47 AM
The GFS continues to show potential for winter returning around March 7th. The 6z has a real arctic blast with 20s in the panhandle of Florida.  ::rofl:: Has highs below freezing here ine day.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Matthew on February 23, 2017, 07:41:45 AM
Here is to hoping the SER wins the battle.  I love snow but it would just stink to see all the blooms & trees get destroyed by a freeze.  Winter had its time which was a week.  Winters like this one makes me hate winter.  I wish it could make up its mind.  Either get cold & snowy in late Dec. - Feb.  or stay the heck away!  Coming late Feb. - Mar. with cold & dreary rainy spring is putting salt in our wounds.  Sorry had to rant.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Storm Central on February 23, 2017, 09:27:49 AM
There is a marginal and slight risk for severe storms on friday afternoon and evening across parts of middle east TN. Model soundings now indicating a marginal tornado threat -4KNAM.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Beth on February 23, 2017, 11:19:12 AM
I see all of the beautiful Tulip trees blooming right now and even my Pear trees have buds on them. I had a beautiful Tulip tree when I lived in Kingston Springs and then came 2007. Broke my heart because it actually killed the tree. I seriously hope we do not get that again this year but I am afraid we might.  :-\
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Vols1 on February 23, 2017, 12:35:11 PM
Looks like the threat of severe weather may be ramping up a bit
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on February 23, 2017, 12:57:45 PM
I see all of the beautiful Tulip trees blooming right now and even my Pear trees have buds on them. I had a beautiful Tulip tree when I lived in Kingston Springs and then came 2007. Broke my heart because it actually killed the tree. I seriously hope we do not get that again this year but I am afraid we might.  :-\

Trees are actually blooming earlier than 2007.  Back then, the unusual warmth occurred in March with multiple days above 80.  This year, the warmth is happening in February, and that's not good.  We have a long way to go before we're out of freeze & frost danger. 

Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Crockett on February 23, 2017, 01:30:11 PM
Trees are actually blooming earlier than 2007.  Back then, the unusual warmth occurred in March with multiple days above 80.  This year, the warmth is happening in February, and that's not good.  We have a long way to go before we're out of freeze & frost danger.

It is, but we're still well behind where we were when the Easter weekend freeze happened in 2007, too. We're to the point that there's undoubtedly going to be some damage with this weekend's freeze and especially what looks to be headed our way the first 10 days of March, but it won't be the killing freeze that it was then. Losing blooms sucks, but at least we don't have foliage that will be killed, and fruit trees aren't blooming yet.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on February 23, 2017, 01:35:22 PM
I'm starting to see azaleas blooming here. We are most certainly going to have a freeze if not hard freezes in the next 3 to 4 weeks. I hate it when spring is brown
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Crockett on February 23, 2017, 01:39:15 PM
Thankfully the 12z GFS backed away from what the 6z run was showing. 13 degrees on 3/9? I mean what even??
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on February 23, 2017, 02:31:28 PM
Thankfully the 12z GFS backed away from what the 6z run was showing. 13 degrees on 3/9? I mean what even??
think long range will do just that
.. continue back off more.  We get the usual cool down after storm systems go by ... wouldn't surprise me see 11  12  redoo ...
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 23, 2017, 04:45:12 PM
I see all of the beautiful Tulip trees blooming right now and even my Pear trees have buds on them. I had a beautiful Tulip tree when I lived in Kingston Springs and then came 2007. Broke my heart because it actually killed the tree. I seriously hope we do not get that again this year but I am afraid we might.  :-\

Yes the Magnolias open very early , esp the Japanese variety. The Jane Magnolias are a bit later, but still seems to get zapped depending on how the Spring starts.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on February 23, 2017, 05:43:09 PM
It is, but we're still well behind where we were when the Easter weekend freeze happened in 2007, too. We're to the point that there's undoubtedly going to be some damage with this weekend's freeze and especially what looks to be headed our way the first 10 days of March, but it won't be the killing freeze that it was then. Losing blooms sucks, but at least we don't have foliage that will be killed, and fruit trees aren't blooming yet.

True.  That freeze was in early April and was unusual in the fact we had temps deep into the lower 20's two nights in a row, and all the trees had foliage out too early that was decimated.   Everything turned black and it took weeks for the trees to recover, and some did not.  It was the worst Spring in recent memory.

I guess much depends on how the rest of March turns out, and if we have another intense freeze late in the season.  Hopefully, we'll have prolonged "cool" spells through March to keep the foliage from emerging too early. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Lucas on February 23, 2017, 06:33:17 PM
This photo was taken in Brentwood, close to OHB and I-65, on April 27, 2007.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: snowdog on February 23, 2017, 07:02:20 PM
Noticed dogwoods here are in full bloom right now. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: harlequin on February 23, 2017, 07:25:16 PM
Where I lived in Mississippi wasn't significantly affected by the 2007 freeze. Memphis was below freezing for around 6 hours.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on February 23, 2017, 09:15:38 PM
Where I lived in Mississippi wasn't significantly affected by the 2007 freeze. Memphis was below freezing for around 6 hours.

It was very destructive over this way, unfortunately.  We were below 25 two nights in a row.  I believe anything below 28 is considered very damaging to tender vegetation.  The second night I recorded 22, after a high only near 40 that day.  A few days later all the green foliage on the trees was wilted, and turning brown or black.  Ugliest Spring I've ever seen.  Add to that the exceptional drought that followed during the summer, and you have extreme conditions that killed many older, struggling trees.

Post Merge: February 23, 2017, 09:20:09 PM
This photo was taken in Brentwood, close to OHB and I-65, on April 27, 2007.

Good pic.  By that late in April, everything should be lush and green.  Obviously, many trees in the picture had already lost the first batch of leaves killed off by the freeze.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on February 23, 2017, 09:50:01 PM
Noticed dogwoods here are in full bloom right now.
that means the crappie are fixing to spawn... wow... early for that.

Post Merge: February 23, 2017, 10:10:22 PM
Thankfully the 12z GFS backed away from what the 6z run was showing. 13 degrees on 3/9? I mean what even??
the 18zgfs even backed off more with the cooler weather coming in early march... but 18z... fwiw ;)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Sbeagles on February 24, 2017, 06:04:11 AM
Crappie are biting like crazy on the Tennessee right now. Water is way down but it's not slowing them down. I'm seeing a variety of trees blooming. My apple and pear trees have full leaves on them.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on February 24, 2017, 07:15:37 AM
Crappie are biting like crazy on the Tennessee right now. Water is way down but it's not slowing them down. I'm seeing a variety of trees blooming. My apple and pear trees have full leaves on them.

Sounds like areas in west TN are far ahead of us over here in terms of bloom-age.  Dogwoods aren't out here, and the pear tree buds are just opening up.  You can see hints of white, but no leaves out yet.  Maples are fiery red with blooms. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 24, 2017, 07:29:40 AM
Sounds like areas in west TN are far ahead of us over here in terms of bloom-age.  Dogwoods aren't out here, and the pear tree buds are just opening up.  You can see hints of white, but no leaves out yet.  Maples are fiery red with blooms.
Things are way ahead down towards Memphis. The Dogwoods are not even budding here. Snowdog may be correct but I have a hard time believing they are in full bloom. Maybe it's a different tree ??
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on February 24, 2017, 07:34:34 AM
This photo was taken in Brentwood, close to OHB and I-65, on April 27, 2007.

Before the freeze, the foliage was a month ahead of schedule. I remember March of that year being extremely warm... an extended period in the 80s. I'm not sure, but it may have been the warmest March on record.

By the last week of March, the trees had fully leaved... I mean leaves fully mature on most of the trees. It looked like May- you would have never guessed it was only March. That's why the trees were as vulnerable as they were when the freeze hit.


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on February 24, 2017, 07:37:47 AM
Heads up that the SPC is showing a Day 5 risk that includes parts of W TN. That's the Tuesday time frame.


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on February 24, 2017, 08:16:08 AM
Heads up that the SPC is showing a Day 5 risk that includes parts of W TN. That's the Tuesday time frame.


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I had my eye  out for that time frame
..
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on February 24, 2017, 09:08:52 AM
Where I lived in Mississippi wasn't significantly affected by the 2007 freeze. Memphis was below freezing for around 6 hours.
I was still living with my parents in the suburbs of Chattanooga. They got down to 22 one night. It destroyed all of the foliage for their hickory trees (which did not recover until the next spring). I remember the smell. It smelled like fresh cut grass outside due to all of the cells in the foliage bursting.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on February 24, 2017, 09:10:46 AM
Looks like we'll be pushing toward 80 for the second time this February.  I hope the summer is inversely cooler to this winter.  I don't want a repeat of last year's scorcher and drought.  I'm concerned that we've not erased the drought in Eastern Tennessee, and even a sliver of extreme drought is creeping back across the border from Georgia.   


Post Merge: February 24, 2017, 09:19:50 AM
I was still living with my parents in the suburbs of Chattanooga. They got down to 22 one night. It destroyed all of the foliage for their hickory trees (which did not recover until the next spring). I remember the smell. It smelled like fresh cut grass outside due to all of the cells in the foliage bursting.

Same thing happened here to all my hickories.  Several down the street began to decline after that spring.  Two died a few years later, and one tree barely hangs on.  It may have died in last year's drought, because what leaves it had turned black and fell off very early.  A late freeze that intense damages the very thin cambium layer under the bark that transports water and nutrients up and down the tree.  Some don't survive.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on February 24, 2017, 09:33:20 AM
Long range EPS mean still shows a complete pattern reversal in about 10 days with BN temps east, above west. The EPS control is significantly BN in Tennessee at 10-15 degrees BN. In other words, plenty of overnight freezes ahead. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on February 24, 2017, 11:05:17 AM
Long range EPS mean still shows a complete pattern reversal in about 10 days with BN temps east, above west. The EPS control is significantly BN in Tennessee at 10-15 degrees BN. In other words, plenty of overnight freezes ahead.
each run of.models on gfs keep on flatting  the ridge out West...showing less cold for the East. Just slightly nw flow couple days ...epps hasn't been that great this winter to be honest ... just still not seeing any major cold for midsouth in March. Northeast did Different story
 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on February 24, 2017, 12:50:42 PM
each run of.models on gfs keep on flatting  the ridge out West...showing less cold for the East. Just slightly nw flow couple days ...epps hasn't been that great this winter to be honest ... just still not seeing any major cold for midsouth in March. Northeast did Different story
 

Do you have any stats comparing error rates for gefs abs EPS? Not asking sarcastically just curious where you got your information.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on February 24, 2017, 02:02:27 PM
Finally--a needed soaking rain for drought areas in East TN showing up on days 4-5. 

(http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1487966446)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: StormNine on February 24, 2017, 04:01:18 PM
Quote
4:54 PM EST Friday 24 February 2017
Severe thunderstorm warning in effect for:

Goderich - Bluewater - Southern Huron County
At 4:54 p.m. EST, Environment Canada meteorologists are tracking a severe thunderstorm capable of producing very strong wind gusts and up to nickel size hail.

The thunderstorm is located over eastern Lambton county and is tracking northeastward at 100 km/h. The main concerns with this thunderstorm are 2 cm hail and wind gusts to 90 km/h.

Things that you don't typically see in February. Along with 80s in KY/TN, 70s in Boston, and everything else this past week.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on February 24, 2017, 05:02:23 PM
Knoxville hit 79 today, breaking our 1890 record high by 3 degrees.

Post Merge: February 25, 2017, 07:00:53 AM
The storms came through Knoxville around 3AM overnight and we had lots of lightning and even a little bit of hail.  It sounded like light stuff, and there doesn't seem to be any damage this morning; I wasn't interested enough to go outside in the middle of the night for pictures or a measurement.  For today I just get to watch the temperatures drop  ::cold::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 03, 2017, 01:19:22 PM
Looks as if the drought continues for east TN, and has even worsened a bit.  I think this was put out before Wednesday's storms.  It appears all of TN has seen below normal rainfall up until then. 

(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20170228/20170228_tn_none.png)

Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on March 03, 2017, 07:09:28 PM
Looks as if the drought continues for east TN, and has even worsened a bit.  I think this was put out before Wednesday's storms.  It appears all of TN has seen below normal rainfall up until then. 

(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20170228/20170228_tn_none.png)
We have had 2 new woods fires on local mountainsides in the last 2 weeks. Nothing as big as back in November, but it is worrying that we are once again running below normal in the wettest part of the year.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: justinmundie on March 04, 2017, 01:00:32 PM
I'm admittedly not a severe guy - but the day7-10 period looks interesting
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2017, 12:02:26 PM
12zgfs... is back to a severe event late next weekend... looks like plenty of deep tropical moisture return to aid to the system... could be our next big system to follow  ::coffee::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 05, 2017, 03:06:54 PM
2 years ago today.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/6r11fb.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on March 05, 2017, 03:40:56 PM
2 years ago today.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/6r11fb.jpg)
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170305/91d8c3c4a980253f2b6ebb966f98a233.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on March 05, 2017, 04:12:10 PM
12zgfs... is back to a severe event late next weekend... looks like plenty of deep tropical moisture return to aid to the system... could be our next big system to follow  ::coffee::

Lol last nights and this mornings gfs was a rain to snow event at the same time. 12z euro is almost a rain to snow event as an arctic front drops south.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2017, 06:27:04 PM
Lol last nights and this mornings gfs was a rain to snow event at the same time. 12z euro is almost a rain to snow event as an arctic front drops south.
yep  noticed that... model consistently at its best... lol ;)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Vols1 on March 05, 2017, 07:25:49 PM
Is that a Saturday or Sunday system?
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 05, 2017, 08:45:07 PM
Is that a Saturday or Sunday system?
sunday  into Monday... as now.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: wfrogge on March 05, 2017, 09:38:39 PM
Saturday afternoon/night would be very interesting for our state if the GFS is right. 00z running now so lets see how consistent it is.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Vols1 on March 05, 2017, 10:10:02 PM
Let me know what it says about Saturday please
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 06, 2017, 12:34:10 AM
Still no clear answer at this point. The GFS has trended further south with the system the last four runs.  Seems to be moving towards Euro. This is the CMC. Not gonna get severe with this look.  ::rofl::

(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017030600/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_24.png)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on March 06, 2017, 04:38:36 AM
The SPC is interested.

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2017/day6prob_20170306_1200.gif)

Quote
   ...Saturday/day 6 AR/MO to KY/TN...
   There is some consistency in recent operational model runs and
   associated ensembles for a low-amplitude shortwave trough, and a
   related surface cyclone, to move from the east-central Plains to the
   lower OH and TN Valleys by Saturday night.  It appears likely that
   the warm sector of this cyclone will be relatively warm/unstable
   given several days of moisture return from the south and a steep
   lapse-rate plume from the west.  Given the low-amplitude nature of
   this system, some predictability/timing concerns will likely linger
   to within 2-3 days of the potential event.  Still, the quality of
   the warm sector and strengthening wind profiles with the
   wave/cyclogenesis appear supportive of an organized severe-storm
   risk, even if the exact details of the threat area will probably
   change in later outlooks.



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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 06, 2017, 07:02:03 AM
The SPC is interested.

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2017/day6prob_20170306_1200.gif)



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umm   a day 6 highlighted.... that's the system I was hinting about yesterday... seems timing is quicker with it day or so... ::coffee::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Matthew on March 06, 2017, 08:20:09 AM
Still no clear answer at this point. The GFS has trended further south with the system the last four runs.  Seems to be moving towards Euro. This is the CMC. Not gonna get severe with this look.  ::rofl::

(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017030600/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_24.png)

Cold rain.  That is about right for this winter.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 06, 2017, 08:41:28 AM
Cold rain.  That is about right for this winter.
not even sure I would even call this season a winter...cmc joke... ensmebles have slp over the mo bootheel... I like this setup actually

Post Merge: March 06, 2017, 08:48:47 AM
key with this  going be exactly where the boundary stalls out at...
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: wfrogge on March 06, 2017, 09:34:23 AM
Still no clear answer at this point. The GFS has trended further south with the system the last four runs.  Seems to be moving towards Euro. This is the CMC. Not gonna get severe with this look.  ::rofl::

(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017030600/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_24.png)

I don't see how this becomes reality. Just not enough cold air in place..... the GFS has been fairly consistent over the past few runs showing severe weather on Saturday for at least the west part of Tennessee so that is where I am leaning.  There does seem to be "cold" air behind the system but it will be well above freezing for most if not all of the state.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on March 06, 2017, 09:58:33 AM
I don't see how this becomes reality. Just not enough cold air in place..... the GFS has been fairly consistent over the past few runs showing severe weather on Saturday for at least the west part of Tennessee so that is where I am leaning.  There does seem to be "cold" air behind the system but it will be well above freezing for most if not all of the state.

The euro and CMC have been almost lock and step on this one. Much of if not all of the rain is in the "colder air". Someone in the Mid Atlantic has the potential to get walloped with massive snow event.

Euro goes on to have 2 hard freezes after the rain passes with temps in the low to mid 20's for much of the state one night. All subject to change but we are talking about next weekend so modeling will correct and probably find a middle ground somewhere.

If I were in the DC- Baltimore area, I would be getting somewhat hyped about a potential major winter event.

Post Merge: March 06, 2017, 10:27:19 AM
12Z GFS came further south too. LP next weekend right on top of Memphis and moves east directly over the state. Boom run for snow in DC
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 06, 2017, 11:04:06 AM
The euro and CMC have been almost lock and step on this one. Much of if not all of the rain is in the "colder air". Someone in the Mid Atlantic has the potential to get walloped with massive snow event.

Euro goes on to have 2 hard freezes after the rain passes with temps in the low to mid 20's for much of the state one night. All subject to change but we are talking about next weekend so modeling will correct and probably find a middle ground somewhere.

If I were in the DC- Baltimore area, I would be getting somewhat hyped about a potential major winter event.

Post Merge: March 06, 2017, 10:27:19 AM
12Z GFS came further south too. LP next weekend right on top of Memphis and moves east directly over the state. Boom run for snow in DC
. It could very well trend back to a severe look but that is what I was seeing when I made the earlier post. The GFS was the only one showing severe and it has trended towards the Euro and CMC the last few runs.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Matthew on March 06, 2017, 12:05:00 PM
[attachimg=1]
Title: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on March 06, 2017, 01:18:59 PM
12z euro went further south and changes most to light snow before ending. CMC went further south as well.

Euro is a huge snow hit for Kentucky and Virginia. Watch that arctic front- it's getting further and further south on each run before moisture moves out.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Vols1 on March 06, 2017, 01:21:39 PM
So we've went from severe to now snow or cold rain for Saturday now??
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 06, 2017, 01:29:47 PM
So we've went from severe to now snow or cold rain for Saturday now??
models are really struggling with the mjo pattern... ;)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Eric on March 06, 2017, 01:38:19 PM
I see you 12z Euro...
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on March 06, 2017, 01:46:24 PM
I see you 12z Euro...
What's did it show?


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on March 06, 2017, 01:48:59 PM
I see you 12z Euro...

Cold getting further south on each run before moisture moves out. Could see some kind of changeover
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Vols1 on March 06, 2017, 02:00:57 PM
When would the changeover probably occur if this is right? And I take it the high Saturday would not be mid 60s lol
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 06, 2017, 02:20:07 PM
Wow...close call.  I see a some freezing rain showing up as well.  Interesting March system after a wonder-less Winter.

(http://kyweathercenter.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/GFS-GIf.gif)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Vols1 on March 06, 2017, 02:53:30 PM
Saturday could be a very interesting day to say the least lol
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 06, 2017, 04:24:37 PM
MEG seems to be on the severe wx train for this weekend... system needs to be watched closely saying... cooler behind the frontal passage sunday...

Post Merge: March 06, 2017, 05:01:14 PM
interesting afd from KPAH Paducah Kentucky... just north of here... woldnt let me paste for some reason... ;) anyone want to read it
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: StormNine on March 06, 2017, 05:37:50 PM
Quote
A 1040+ surface high will attempt to spill down out of the
northern Plains Thursday, and a surface wave will develop along
the leading edge over Missouri by 00Z Friday. The surface wave
will move eastward over or near our area Thursday night. Elevated
instability is generated in the models, so will keep a chance of
thunderstorms in the forecast.

Friday should be dry, but temperatures are iffy with the Arctic
high trying to spill into our region. The models have trended
cooler with the system arriving early Saturday morning, and that
has led to an introduction of some snow mention in the far north
early Saturday morning. If the 12Z models are correct, our
temperature forecast is likely too warm, and there may be more of
a concern for measurable snow Saturday. Will have to wait and see
what the models do with that cold surface high before getting too
excited about a brief bout of winter. On the flip side, if that
cold air does not make it to our area, thunderstorms may be more
of a concern than wintry weather.

The final system will move into the area on Monday. In the
progressive flow pattern, the surface high will push east of the
area allowing for south winds and nice warm, moist advection ahead
of/into this system. This should be an all liquid event, but there
is a brief mention of snow with the rain in the north early
Monday morning. The precipitation is not likely to begin until
later in the morning, so no issues expected at this time. Of
course if we are colder for the Saturday system and actually get
some snow, that could have an impact on the Monday system.

Lots to watch for in this is active week of weather. Stay tuned.

Strength of the high pressure system is important to watch for the Saturday system said, NWS Paducah.
Title: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on March 07, 2017, 05:44:03 AM
The SPC has backed off from showing any risk areas over the weekend, citing uncertainty in recent model trends.


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on March 09, 2017, 08:50:23 AM
There is a Day 1 slight risk nudging into West TN now. Marginal risk extends into Middle TN.

Quote
   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
   evening across the Ozark Plateau and vicinity, with an attendant
   risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.  A threat
   for locally severe winds may also extend eastward into the Tennessee
   Valley overnight.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 09, 2017, 09:06:55 AM
Pretty robust little system racing across TN tonight.  Could see a little lightning and thunder overnight, and much needed rain. 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam4km&region=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2016021500&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=156 (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam4km&region=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2016021500&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=156)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 09, 2017, 10:54:49 AM
Quote
[/q000
FXUS64 KOHX 091551
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
951 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

.DISCUSSION...

A spring like day will continue with sunny skies and highs in
the low to mid 70s.

We updated our Hazardous Wx Outlook to beef up wording for
possible severe thunderstorms tonight, including some large hail
and damaging winds. Models show very steep mid level lapse rates
developing with the approaching system, indicated by total totals
in the mid 50s. Also, capes of 500-1000 and >50kt deep layer shear
will promote severe potential. The time frame we are looking at
begins in our northwest counties around 9 PM, 10 PM - 1 AM for
BNA, and midnight - 3 AM along the Plateau.

The stormy wx will usher in a pattern change with much cooler air,
followed by accumulating snow potential by Saturday night.

&&uote]
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Eric on March 09, 2017, 02:13:53 PM
Not to be missed, the SPC pushed the ENH/SLGT risks into Mid TN.   ::coffee::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on March 09, 2017, 03:35:47 PM
Indeed

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day1otlk_20170309_2000_prt.gif)

Quote
   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
   evening across the Ozark Plateau and into the Tennessee Valley, with
   attendant risks for large hail, damaging wind, and a couple
   tornadoes.

   ...Discussion...
   Forecast reasoning from prior outlooks remains valid, with an
   increase/upscale expansion of convection expected over the next
   several hours.  The primary change to the outlook this update has
   been an east-southeastward expansion in damaging wind risk across
   the Tennessee Valley area.  CAM runs, and latest trends with respect
   to low-level moistening as revealed by afternoon surface obs,
   suggest that a fairly well-organized MCS which should be crossing
   the mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys this evening may remain
   intense enough to allow risk for damaging winds to eventually spread
   as far east as the southern Appalachians.





Post Merge: March 09, 2017, 03:43:09 PM
Nocturnal storm risk followed by, two nights later, nocturnal snow risk.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 09, 2017, 08:18:08 PM
Tonight's storms almost have the organizational structure of a small derecho. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Charles L. on March 09, 2017, 08:25:42 PM
There is likely some very large hail falling north of Pegram, TN. That is a nasty hail core.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on March 09, 2017, 08:37:36 PM
Is that cell moving out of SEMO popping a TDS? Sure looks like it on CC


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 10, 2017, 07:04:57 AM
Storms produced quite the light show last night.  For me it was perfect sleeping weather—heavy rain on the roof accented with almost continuous rolling thunder. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: bigdog660 on March 10, 2017, 03:28:50 PM
Thunderstorms here were very mild last night. Received 0.64" of very needed rain. 😃

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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: spanarkle08 on March 10, 2017, 03:34:35 PM
A lot of damage here in Carroll County....mainly to sheds and barns, couple houses hit pretty good. Had  winds at my house at 48mph
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 10, 2017, 09:14:44 PM
A lot of damage here in Carroll County....mainly to sheds and barns, couple houses hit pretty good. Had  winds at my house at 48mph
im not far from you at all... im at spring creek on hwy 70   had golf ball size hail...
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on March 15, 2017, 10:08:06 AM
Even though it feels like winter spring is coming fast and that means that NHC is starting to put out new information for the 2017 hurricane season.  They've posted 5 upcoming changes that I thought were interesting enough to share here before we're ready for the Summer/Hurricane thread later on.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/changes-coming-this-hurricane-season-2017?cm_ven=T_WX_CD_31517_1 (https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/changes-coming-this-hurricane-season-2017?cm_ven=T_WX_CD_31517_1)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 15, 2017, 12:25:43 PM
12zgfs continues to advertise a very potent system next Friday late ... conditions on that run indicate perhaps a viotale situation of that run verifies...nice deep moisture return with plenty shear in place. Instability looks plentiful also...if things hold,  which we got ways go stilk.finally May have a system with legs ... 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: justinmundie on March 15, 2017, 12:46:51 PM
12zgfs continues to advertise a very potent system next Friday late ... conditions on that run indicate perhaps a viotale situation of that run verifies...nice deep moisture return with plenty shear in place. Instability looks plentiful also...if things hold,  which we got ways go stilk.finally May have a system with legs ...

Day 8 through the end of the period certainly looks stormy. Multiple deep low pressure systems pushing through. GFS temps and dews look wonky though for the day 8 system.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 15, 2017, 02:04:43 PM
Agree mundie... Do think that temp issue work itself out with time. Mean while 12zeuro is  ::wow::...wish we were little closer to this threat
..but model consistency seems be there thus far ...
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 16, 2017, 06:23:33 AM
Sevierville airport at 16 this morning, and I'm down to 19.  TYS at 22.  By comparison, Tallahassee, FL is 28 this morning.  Mid 20's deep into the Gulf states.  Sunrise still 30 minutes away, so temps may drop another degree or two.

Ok, it's been interesting, but I'm ready for something more like Spring now. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 16, 2017, 07:29:32 AM
Sevierville airport at 16 this morning, and I'm down to 19.  TYS at 22.  By comparison, Tallahassee, FL is 28 this morning.  Mid 20's deep into the Gulf states.  Sunrise still 30 minutes away, so temps may drop another degree or two.

Ok, it's been interesting, but I'm ready for something more like Spring now.
o. It's coming jc.... SPC  already for a 7 to 8 day outlook sound fairly bullish... pretty impressive... ::coffee::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JHart on March 16, 2017, 07:32:16 AM
We bottomed out at 17F here in Lascassas.  I just purchased Spring 2.0 for our house and eagerly await its arrival.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 16, 2017, 07:36:49 AM
Looks like Sevierville airport bottomed out at 14 this morning.  Impressive low temperature for March.  Hope a few of those mosquitos I noticed back in February are now in mosquito heaven. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Coach B on March 16, 2017, 08:20:02 AM
I got down to 19 on the hill but saw as low as 16 on the way into town.  ::cold::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on March 16, 2017, 10:04:59 AM
After this cold snap, we should be warming up starting this weekend.

While no severe weather risks are yet posted on the map, the SPC is hinting at some possibilities in the Plains and mid-Mississippi valley late next week:

Quote
   By Thu/D8, the trough and surface cyclone are forecast to deepen
   further, and at this point, appear to hold the greatest risk for
   severe weather. Moisture and instability will be a bit better than
   on the previous day, and the ECMWF shows a classic deep cyclone
   favoring all modes of severe weather, including tornadoes. However,
   predictability is low at D8, especially considering the current
   level of run-to-run model consistency. Thus, will defer to later
   outlooks for potential areas, which may eventually include the
   central and southern Plains, as well as the Missouri and mid
   Mississippi valleys.

   ..Jewell.. 03/16/2017
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 16, 2017, 10:18:34 AM
After this cold snap, we should be warming up starting this weekend.

While no severe weather risks are yet posted on the map, the SPC is hinting at some possibilities in the Plains and mid-Mississippi valley late next week:
yeah. That's the system I got.my eye on n posting bout. Covers the time frame.  Western areas least should be I play...gfs says areas even further East be effected also

Post Merge: March 16, 2017, 10:23:38 AM
Am referring to western areas of the midsouth... just to make post clearer .lol curious see how this system unfolds...
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 16, 2017, 10:34:01 AM
Looking forward to more active weather to kick the east Tennessee drought to the curb.   ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Crockett on March 16, 2017, 10:37:37 AM
GFS looks very warm after truncation. Bring it on!!
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 16, 2017, 10:46:20 AM
Looking forward to more active weather to kick the east Tennessee drought to the curb.   ::fingerscrossed::
fixing to get it ... pattern heading In to stormy pattern... just may have to be a price to pay In kicking that drought to the curb... time will tell...
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Crockett on March 16, 2017, 10:57:25 AM
just may have to be a price to pay In kicking that drought to the curb... time will tell...

Holy hyperbole, Batman!  ;D
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: CT_Yankee on March 16, 2017, 11:05:31 AM
I got down to 13.7°  ::cold::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 16, 2017, 11:41:15 AM
Holy hyperbole, Batman!  ;D
ok... ;)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 16, 2017, 01:26:33 PM
fixing to get it ... pattern heading In to stormy pattern... just may have to be a price to pay In kicking that drought to the curb... time will tell...

Hey Bruce, I want Spring and a soaking rain—not Armageddon.   ::wow::  ;D
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: bigdog660 on March 16, 2017, 03:27:53 PM
I had a low of 19.2 this morning. From last night to this morning, I stayed at at 32 or lower for 14 hours 20 mins (14:20). I was at 26 or lower for 10:20. I was at 22 or lower for 4:20.

The reason for the detailed temperature readings is to take stock of how much damage these temperatures caused. I imagine if the sap was running in smaller trees, it was probably crystallized. Anyone like to comment on how much damage they think was done?
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 16, 2017, 06:24:23 PM
I had a low of 19.2 this morning. From last night to this morning, I stayed at at 32 or lower for 14 hours 20 mins (14:20). I was at 26 or lower for 10:20. I was at 22 or lower for 4:20.

The reason for the detailed temperature readings is to take stock of how much damage these temperatures caused. I imagine if the sap was running in smaller trees, it was probably crystallized. Anyone like to comment on how much damage they think was done?

Good details on the temperatures.  I don't know how much damage may have occurred, but if any was done to young trees, you'll notice it pretty quick this Spring.  Some branches may not leaf out properly, or lose their leaves shortly after budding out.  Those branches may die, and they'll have to be pruned.  Young trees can recover by sprouting new branches at the pruning points.  Larger trees can also be hurt by prolonged freezing temperatures.  I lost a 30ft oak tree after the 2007 freeze.  It took about 5 years with the tree dying slowly from the top down.  It was in decent health up until that year.  I think the hot summer of 2012 finished it off. 

Hopefully, most larger trees won't be affected by this freeze, because they aren't leafed out yet, but it can happen with intense early Spring cold spells. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on March 17, 2017, 09:10:20 AM
My lowest temp of this cold snap was 17 yesterday morning. That's actually the 2nd coldest temp I observed all winter. (Coldest was 9 after the light snow event in Jan).
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: wfrogge on March 17, 2017, 09:19:14 AM
Keep your winter reports out of our spring weather thread!

*I am joking folks.... Just a jab at those that confuse the seasons with seasonal weather*
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 17, 2017, 09:28:10 AM
Keep your winter reports out of our spring weather thread!

*I am joking folks.... Just a jab at those that confuse the seasons with seasonal weather*
I am already confused enough... 17 for a.. low in mid march...  but to be honest... its still winter on calendar by 4 more days at least ... :D :
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 17, 2017, 06:16:00 PM
Big difference in temperature this evening over a short distance.  62 at TYS, while here in eastern Sevier county, I sit at a very chilly 47.   
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on March 18, 2017, 08:36:48 AM
There's a region outlooked in E OK/NE TX for Day 7. Risks might progress eastward into next weekend, but better model consistency is needed.


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: skillsweather on March 18, 2017, 08:47:07 AM
Any place to see rainfall estimates that fell last night? NWS site glitchy sometimes. It rained a lot in Lebanon. A lot more then I expected because most news places was saying half an inch for me and more near southern Tennessee. I feel I got closer to 2 inches honestly.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 18, 2017, 09:59:18 AM
Had a decent rain of .86 overnight.  It was good to see this system perform well.  Keep 'em coming. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: bigdog660 on March 18, 2017, 10:05:28 PM
0.67" here.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on March 19, 2017, 05:39:05 AM
Marginal risk covers most of the state on Day 3, Tuesday, citing hail and gusty winds.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day3otlk_20170319_0730.html



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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 19, 2017, 07:35:40 AM
fixing to get going with severe... over 3 fourths of the state of arkansas in a day 6 risk already... ::coffee::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on March 19, 2017, 11:46:38 AM
Had a decent rain of .86 overnight.  It was good to see this system perform well.  Keep 'em coming.
Wow. Got nothing down here. Already running behind on rain again.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 19, 2017, 12:19:55 PM
We ended up getting a big rain with lots of thunder and lightning. Had 1.74 in my gauge.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: wfrogge on March 19, 2017, 05:31:33 PM
 ::blowtorch:: That is all I'm saying for the first part of this week. What has not bloomed yet is about to
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: StormNine on March 19, 2017, 06:03:28 PM
::blowtorch:: That is all I'm saying for the first part of this week. What has not bloomed yet is about to

Kansas City is currently sitting at 86F and we are a little past the peak heating of the day.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 19, 2017, 07:13:29 PM
Wow. Got nothing down here. Already running behind on rain again.

That's not good.  All of East TN has been running behind this Winter--one reason most areas are in a moderate-severe drought, with far southeast areas in extreme drought.  I hope we can at least see some decent moderate to heavy rains over the next few weeks to put a dent into the below normal precipitation numbers, but many past storms underperformed in terms of amounts, so I don't have a lot of confidence in what the models show at this point.   
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on March 20, 2017, 07:19:52 AM
Day 6 risk heads to our south into the Gulf Coast states.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 20, 2017, 08:03:01 AM
Dropped down to 29 this morning.  Could it be the last time below 30 till Fall??

Meanwhile, per MRX:

Quote
LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Front will be knocking on our door by early Tuesday with
precipitation chances continuing ahead of the front. Front will
struggle to continue moving south during the day on Tuesday and
will likely act as the focus for convection over our area as the
day progresses. Along and south of the front we will destabilize
enough to where we could see strong to possibly severe storms in
our area. Forecast soundings are showing 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE
available with the higher amounts further south in Southeast
Tennessee/Southwest North Carolina. There is a moderate amount of
shear in the mid to low levels to work with as well south of the
front. Right now the environment south of the front looks to
support hail and strong winds as the primary threat in the
strongest storms on Tuesday.
As the sun sets and the front
continues to push south storms will transition to rain showers
overnight and slowly diminish as we move into Wednesday.

Hope this comes to fruition.  A bull's-eye of good QPF right over the drought areas of east TN.

(http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif?1490015248346)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on March 20, 2017, 01:23:37 PM
Heads up- much of the state is in a slight risk for tomorrow now.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day2otlk_20170320_1730.html
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 20, 2017, 01:44:24 PM
Heads up- much of the state is in a slight risk for tomorrow now.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day2otlk_20170320_1730.html
yep... hoping we can get that system end this week tad more north to get into play still... but things pretty much do look linear on late week system regardless...
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on March 20, 2017, 03:47:43 PM
Low 90's on the Ozark Plateau today(after 5 inches of snow weekend before last)... a reminder of what's to come in the next 90 days.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 20, 2017, 03:53:02 PM
Low 90's on the Ozark Plateau today(after 5 inches of snow weekend before last)... a reminder of what's to come in the next 90 days.
Boooo !!!!! ::rant::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on March 20, 2017, 04:55:12 PM
A line of storms is coming out of western KY, actually popping some SVR warnings.  That could affect adjacent areas of TN in the next couple of hours.

Post Merge: March 20, 2017, 04:57:02 PM
By the way, I think temperatures over-performed today... currently 83 in Nashville.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Crockett on March 20, 2017, 05:17:55 PM
Low 90's on the Ozark Plateau today(after 5 inches of snow weekend before last)... a reminder of what's to come in the next 90 days.

(https://hips.hearstapps.com/cosmouk.cdnds.net/15/31/1600x800/landscape-1438173668-cute-success-kid.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 20, 2017, 05:23:14 PM
Massive spread in temperatures from west to east across the state today.  I've been stuck in the mid-50's with little Sun (along with most east of I-75 & along and north of I-40), while mid and west Tennessee shot into the 80's.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on March 20, 2017, 05:46:14 PM
(https://hips.hearstapps.com/cosmouk.cdnds.net/15/31/1600x800/landscape-1438173668-cute-success-kid.jpg)
I should have known you would have liked that
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 21, 2017, 05:48:59 AM
It looks like the emphasis for the strongest storms, thus most of the rain, has shifted into far southeast TN today.  Considering that's the part of Tennessee battling the worst of the drought (and they missed most of the previous system's rain), I'll be happy for them.  I'll just be glad if I get a shower today.   ::rain::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Crockett on March 21, 2017, 08:36:49 AM
I should have known you would have liked that

I'm so sick of this winter that I wouldn't much mind if the devil himself came and breathed on us.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 21, 2017, 08:56:26 AM
I'm so sick of this winter that I wouldn't much mind if the devil himself came and breathed on us.

Let it be aimed in the direction of Upper Plateau, please.  ;D  We had that here in the Smokies last year, and got burned. . .

(http://tse2.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.P6OLBxNdrHUWNFAPgbr7zAEsDh&w=255&h=187&c=7&qlt=90&o=4&pid=1.7) ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on March 21, 2017, 08:57:46 AM
I'm so sick of this winter that I wouldn't much mind if the devil himself came and breathed on us.

I'm sick of it too. It's just different when you have 4 months of 95-100 with high humidity here. And not to mention low temps of 80.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Matthew on March 21, 2017, 09:40:00 AM
Enhanced risk now out for some of the area.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Crockett on March 21, 2017, 09:40:06 AM
Let it be aimed in the direction of Upper Plateau, please.  ;D  We had that here in the Smokies last year, and got burned. . .

(http://tse2.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.P6OLBxNdrHUWNFAPgbr7zAEsDh&w=255&h=187&c=7&qlt=90&o=4&pid=1.7) ::blowtorch::

We had our fair share of wildfires, too. I'm ordering my heat with just enough rain mixed in to avoid drought conditions.  ;D
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 21, 2017, 09:53:43 AM
Enhanced risk now out for some of the area.

Yep, they've stepped it up a notch for parts of TN today. . .

Quote
Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE
   TENNESSEE TO PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN AL AND NORTHERN GA...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM THE
   EASTERN OZARKS TO NORTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   SLIGHT RISK AND EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
   CAROLINAS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   THE CALIFORNIA CENTRAL VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Hail and damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the
   Ozarks across the Tennessee Valley to the southern Appalachians.  An
   enhanced corridor of damaging-wind risk now appears more probable
   from middle Tennessee to northeastern Alabama and northern Georgia.
   An isolated severe storm or two, capable of hail, damaging gusts
   and/or a tornado, may develop across portions of the California
   Central Valley.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)

Post Merge: March 21, 2017, 10:10:52 AM


Quite the jump in temperature at TYS in one hour.  I assume the Sun finally came out.  Went from 59 to 70. 

Quote
21 10:53 SW 6 10.00 Partly Cloudy FEW050 SCT250 70 53   55% NA NA 30.03 1016.2   
21 09:53 SW 6 7.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN050 BKN250 59 47   64% NA NA 30.03 1016.5   
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Matthew on March 21, 2017, 10:16:35 AM
It has gotten very warm  quickly here in the Boro. shows 76.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: wfrogge on March 21, 2017, 10:36:45 AM
Little Rock is using the "D" word now when talking about this afternoon's threat.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Matthew on March 21, 2017, 11:28:40 AM
Well at least it has been an early active spring so far.  I believe this is the 3rd enhance for our area so far.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Eric on March 21, 2017, 11:58:02 AM
Little Rock is using the "D" word now when talking about this afternoon's threat.

Little premature, to be honest.  Could it happen?  Potentially, but the system will have to grow upscale in a hurry.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 21, 2017, 12:38:03 PM
Current area of convection over southeast Missouri seems to be moving more east than southeast.  At some point, I guess it's projected to curve toward the southeast. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Beth on March 21, 2017, 02:53:47 PM
Severe tstorm watch here till 10 pm. Assuming for most of middle Tn. Storms coming this way from Waverly.


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: WXRocker on March 21, 2017, 03:20:36 PM
Does anyone happen to have a working stream for KIG79?  Wunderground no longer hosts it. :(
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on March 21, 2017, 03:22:57 PM
Severe tstorm watch here till 10 pm. Assuming for most of middle Tn. Storms coming this way from Waverly.


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Yep- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0076.html
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 21, 2017, 03:58:09 PM
Nasty looking line of storms in Mid-TN on radar.  Hope everyone stays safe this evening. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: NashRugger on March 21, 2017, 06:14:55 PM
Extensive roof damage to Christiana Elementary on US231, so it'll be closed tomorrow.

Also, significant damage in Fayetteville with widespread trees down.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 21, 2017, 06:16:50 PM
Strong to severe storms developing near and affecting parts of central east TN now, including Knoxville and points east and south.  Sky very dark here, and I hear the distant rumble of thunder. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Crockett on March 21, 2017, 09:16:35 PM
Today was gorgeous. Winds stayed down, and yet temps soared into the mid 70s even here on the northern plateau. It was nice enough to enjoy put the top down on the Jeep and cruise around. I hate to hear about the storm damage in some areas, but the complex dove south of us, as modeled, and we didn't see a drop of rain. This is the kind of weather I can give a stamp of approval to.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 22, 2017, 07:22:12 AM
Last night was a reminder why I love nighttime thunderstorms—you get to see nature’s light show in all its splendor.  For about two hours, very intense cloud to cloud lightning filled the night sky.  At times, it would branch and spider from horizon to horizon.  I was able to sit on my porch with my dogs for almost the entire time, while the frogs in the pond sang their song of Spring accented by the rolling thunder.  It was a good moment in time—the kind that makes you glad to be alive.   

I ended up with .58 of rain.  Nothing spectacular, but more than I expected.  Most of the heavier rain fell just to my west and south, but I’m content with my half inch, as most models earlier this week showed the system missing me to the south. 

Looking forward to the next nighttime thunderstorm.  A large, covered porch is a weather watcher's best friend.   
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on March 22, 2017, 07:33:12 AM
EPB had 60000 outages during the peak of the storm last night. That's the most they've had from a single storm since the super outbreak. The storm wasn't severe IMBY. I had 40 mph winds and pea sized hail, but apparently 70 mph winds and golfball sized hail were common in other areas.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Eric on March 22, 2017, 07:47:04 AM
TBNA recorded a pocket of 100+mph winds as it passed through S Rutherford Co yesterday, affecting the Barfield/Christiana areas.  Saw numerous pics of damage to trees and homes from that area.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: DocB on March 22, 2017, 08:33:24 AM
TBNA recorded a pocket of 100+mph winds as it passed through S Rutherford Co yesterday, affecting the Barfield/Christiana areas.  Saw numerous pics of damage to trees and homes from that area.
I was tracking that storm on Radarscope and saw a 91.8mph reading and dismissed it thinking it was in error. Guess not.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Eric on March 22, 2017, 08:50:46 AM
I was tracking that storm on Radarscope and saw a 91.8mph reading and dismissed it thinking it was in error. Guess not.

Things got interesting west of Murfreesboro with a 88mph, then 97, then 101, then 105 before it punched into Cannon/Coffee Cos.

Granted, you were increasing elevation as you traversed east, but if 80 of the 105 was reaching the ground, there was stuff getting tossed around.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Matthew on March 22, 2017, 09:44:12 AM
TBNA recorded a pocket of 100+mph winds as it passed through S Rutherford Co yesterday, affecting the Barfield/Christiana areas.  Saw numerous pics of damage to trees and homes from that area.

My wife whom is not one to get  scared during storms did.  She said "I had the kids come down stairs & I really thought the windows were going to blow out".  This is off 840.  So not 100 mph winds but pretty stout it sounds like.  We have lots of limbs down along with some trees.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Eric on March 22, 2017, 11:53:13 AM
My wife whom is not one to get  scared during storms did.  She said "I had the kids come down stairs & I really thought the windows were going to blow out".  This is off 840.  So not 100 mph winds but pretty stout it sounds like.  We have lots of limbs down along with some trees.

Burnt Knob and 840 took a hit.  Several trees and utility poles snapped.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 22, 2017, 11:53:54 AM
Keep seeing year 2011 on this severe  wx season starting to pop up on the cips analogs.. gfs showing some nice systems long range. ... ::coffee::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on March 22, 2017, 12:05:14 PM
TBNA recorded a pocket of 100+mph winds as it passed through S Rutherford Co yesterday, affecting the Barfield/Christiana areas.  Saw numerous pics of damage to trees and homes from that area.

A school in Christiana sustained significant damage and was closed today as a result.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Eric on March 22, 2017, 12:07:17 PM
A school in Christiana sustained significant damage and was closed today as a result.

Christiana Elementary to be exact.  Had an LSR shortly after it happened.  School was filled with parents and teachers for conferences.  Initially there were entrapments, but all escaped and to my knowledge, without serious injury. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Matthew on March 22, 2017, 12:07:31 PM
Burnt Knob and 840 took a hit.  Several trees and utility poles snapped.

We live right off Burnt Knob.  That explains why she was so scared.  Said she has never seen it that bad.

Post Merge: March 22, 2017, 03:30:23 PM
Burnt Knob and 840 took a hit.  Several trees and utility poles snapped.

We live right off Burnt Knob.  That explains why she was so scared.  Said she has never seen it that bad.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: ServoCrow on March 22, 2017, 04:49:21 PM
I uploaded a little video of a portion of the storm as it started. I live less than a tenth of a mile from Christiana Elementary.  I was holding on to the doorway ...and would have had a long video but ran out of memory.

https://youtu.be/8F7rlUK-vI8
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 22, 2017, 08:34:15 PM
the forecaster who wrote the afd from the MEG office this evening... must have a date tonight and was running late... lol... got to be the shortest discussion i have ever seen... and its not like were in for a boring pattern either. ;)
Title: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on March 23, 2017, 06:38:18 AM
Maybe start to keep an eye on Monday's system. SPC painted a risk that includes southwest TN (Day 5).


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Matthew on March 23, 2017, 07:35:06 AM
Maybe start to keep an eye on Monday's system. SPC painted a risk that includes southwest TN (Day 5).


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Nothing major but another marginal risk with slight close by.  Active times for early spring continue.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on March 23, 2017, 07:59:37 AM
Nothing major but another marginal risk with slight close by.  Active times for early spring continue.

Really two separate systems- one on Saturday (Day 3) and one on Monday (Day 5). The one I was referring to was Day 5, but yes Day 3 does have a marginal risk for half the state, with even a slight risk nudging into lower W TN.

Day 3:
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day3otlk_20170323_0730_prt.gif)

Day 5:
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2017/day5prob_20170323_1200.gif)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Matthew on March 23, 2017, 08:20:02 AM
Really two separate systems- one on Saturday (Day 3) and one on Monday (Day 5). The one I was referring to was Day 5, but yes Day 3 does have a marginal risk for half the state, with even a slight risk nudging into lower W TN.

Day 3:
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day3otlk_20170323_0730_prt.gif)

Day 5:
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2017/day5prob_20170323_1200.gif)

Sorry for confusion Thunder.  I knew you were referring to Monday.  I was referring to just Sat.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 23, 2017, 02:54:25 PM
Boy... The gfs. Is very active through whole run . Ready for the big dog severe wx event  been while we had high risk day. 2011 ::popcorn::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Eric on March 23, 2017, 03:23:41 PM
Boy... The gfs. Is very active through whole run . Ready for the big dog severe wx event  been while we had high risk day. 2011 ::popcorn::

What "big dog" would that be, Bruce?

We just saw a HIGH back in January....  ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 23, 2017, 08:42:03 PM
What "big dog" would that be, Bruce?

We just saw a HIGH back in January....  ::bagoverhead::
my bad... should made myself clearer... for midsouth... tennessee valley regions... ;)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Matthew on March 23, 2017, 09:53:56 PM
my bad... should made myself clearer... for midsouth... tennessee valley regions... ;)

Bruce,

I like severe wx but a high risk for this area?

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 24, 2017, 07:46:44 AM
The East TN region (east of the Plateau) rarely sees “high risk” in severe weather forecasts.  We did on April 27, 2011.  After that night, I’m good on “high risk.”   Had my fill.   I love a good thunderstorm, and I even enjoy a marginally severe storm.  But the storms that night made even me want to run for cover.  The dogs and I spent a big part of the night huddled in the partial basement peeking out the window hoping every tree on the property didn’t end up on the house.  One severe storm after another hit starting around 7, and lasting to almost midnight.  The lightning was so intense—bolts hitting the ground every 10-15 seconds.   It felt like I was in the 2005 remake of “War of the Worlds.”  All I needed were some clothes hanging on a line, and a screaming girl. 

Yep, I’m good on high risk.  I’ll take my slight risk over that any day.   
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Crockett on March 24, 2017, 07:58:34 AM
The East TN region (east of the Plateau) rarely sees “high risk” in severe weather forecasts.  We did on April 27, 2011.  After that night, I’m good on “high risk.”   Had my fill.   I love a good thunderstorm, and I even enjoy a marginally severe storm.  But the storms that night made even me want to run for cover.  The dogs and I spent a big part of the night huddled in the partial basement peeking out the window hoping every tree on the property didn’t end up on the house.  One severe storm after another hit starting around 7, and lasting to almost midnight.  The lightning was so intense—bolts hitting the ground every 10-15 seconds.   It felt like I was in the 2005 remake of “War of the Worlds.”  All I needed were some clothes hanging on a line, and a screaming girl. 

Yep, I’m good on high risk.  I’ll take my slight risk over that any day.   

Most reasonable people would agree with you. Only a fool actually wishes for high-risk severe weather days.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Eric on March 24, 2017, 09:59:53 AM
Only a fool actually wishes for high-risk severe weather days.

(http://i65.tinypic.com/eq6rut.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 24, 2017, 10:27:19 AM
Some slight improvements concerning the east TN drought.  Moderate and severe drought were both shaved back some, and pushed more toward the NC border.  I went from severe to moderate drought over the last week. 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?TN (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?TN)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on March 24, 2017, 12:13:45 PM
Some slight improvements concerning the east TN drought.  Moderate and severe drought were both shaved back some, and pushed more toward the NC border.  I went from severe to moderate drought over the last week. 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?TN (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?TN)
Alright! I'm down to D2. I think it was about this time last year that I was placed in D2 originally.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 24, 2017, 01:44:09 PM
Alright! I'm down to D2. I think it was about this time last year that I was placed in D2 originally.

I think we were close to D2 status last summer, but a wet August knocked us back to D0.  Afterwards, it didn't rain much for nearly 3 months.  By the time the fires happened, we were D3-D4 around here.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 24, 2017, 03:56:20 PM
Finally a much stronger system looks to effect the midsouth by late next week... could this be the one?  :)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2017, 04:41:27 PM
Finally a much stronger system looks to effect the midsouth by late next week... could this be the one?  :)

Monday threat is nothing to overlook. Especially the way this spring has gone so far.  Not going to be a high like your looking for but could be enhanced or moderate?
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: StormNine on March 24, 2017, 07:31:43 PM
my bad... should made myself clearer... for midsouth... tennessee valley regions... ;)

3/2/2012 was actually the last High Risk for at least a portion of the Mid-South (northern Middle TN). For the rest of the area, it was either 5/25/2011 or 4/27/2011. It is a little bit unusual to go this long without one for this area. The last time that Tennessee had to wait five years between High-Risk days was from 1989 to 1994.   
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2017, 10:04:33 PM
3/2/2012 was actually the last High Risk for at least a portion of the Mid-South (northern Middle TN). For the rest of the area, it was either 5/25/2011 or 4/27/2011. It is a little bit unusual to go this long without one for this area. The last time that Tennessee had to wait five years between High-Risk days was from 1989 to 1994.

So according to history.  Somewhere in the mid south is due within 1-2 years.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: harlequin on March 24, 2017, 10:55:45 PM
3/2/2012 was actually the last High Risk for at least a portion of the Mid-South (northern Middle TN). For the rest of the area, it was either 5/25/2011 or 4/27/2011. It is a little bit unusual to go this long without one for this area. The last time that Tennessee had to wait five years between High-Risk days was from 1989 to 1994.

Yeah, we are overdue for one. I will say that 12/22/2015 could have gotten a HIGH for part of the MEG area (and parts of southern TN) and no one would have given it a second thought.

The state had quite a run of High Risks between 2008 and 2014.

2/5/08 (Super Tuesday)
4/10/09 (Murfreesboro)
4/24/10 (Yazoo City)
5/1/10 (killer tornadoes in MS and TN) (Great TN Flood)
4/26/11 (Vilonia 1)
4/27/11 (Super Outbreak)
5/25/11 (inconsequential outbreak) (Joplin sequence)
3/2/12 (Ohio Valley raked)

As seen below, MEG had a crazy run in its CWA in 2010 and 2011 with 6 highs. A couple of these didn't include MEG's TN counties:

2/5/08 - (Super Tuesday)
4/24/10 - (Yazoo City)
4/30/10 - (killer TOR in AR)
5/1/10 - (killer EF3s in MS/TN) (Great TN Flood)
4/26/11 - (Vilonia 1)
4/27/11 - (Super Outbreak)
5/25/11 - (Joplin sequence)
4/28/14 - (major tornado outbreak)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 25, 2017, 06:25:27 AM
Good to see widespread hefty rain totals from the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi & Tennessee Valleys over the next 7 days.  This is normally a wet period, and we need these rains to keep chipping away at the remaining dry/drought areas before Summer. 

(http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1490440776)

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on March 25, 2017, 07:10:39 AM
Very active period indeed. I'm trying to decide whether to create separate threads for separate events just over the next several days. We have today's risk. Then there's Monday's risk. And, now it appears we may need to keep an eye on Thursday for a possible severe weather threat.


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 26, 2017, 07:19:47 AM
I now see why the cultivar "Bradford Pear" is quickly becoming a scourge, spreading into the wild and becoming an "invasive" species.  The ones around here survived 16 degrees without any noticeable damage to sprouting leaves beyond minor wilting.  I find that hard to believe.  Nothing can touch it, except a good breeze.  Their wood is weak, and they split wide open once they get a little age on them.

I'm seeing abandoned fields here and in Kentucky literally becoming whole groves of these trees, except the offspring sprouts thorns that will pierce a tire--like the tree they were cultivated from, the Callery Pear.   They grow so fast, few other trees can compete with them when they invade en masse.  Move over Kudzu--you're being replaced with something much worse. 

If you're looking to plant a tree this Spring, avoid the Bradford or Cleveland Select Pear tree.  Lowe's, Home Depot or any respectable retailer shouldn't even be selling these anymore.

https://www.nps.gov/plants/alien/pubs/midatlantic/pyca.htm (https://www.nps.gov/plants/alien/pubs/midatlantic/pyca.htm)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on March 26, 2017, 07:37:16 AM
Major whiff on rainfall last night. My zone forecast was for 1-2". Actually got less than a quarter inch. This feels familiar.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 26, 2017, 07:55:12 AM
Major whiff on rainfall last night. My zone forecast was for 1-2". Actually got less than a quarter inch. This feels familiar.

Only .27 here.  Definitely underwhelming. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: bigdog660 on March 27, 2017, 05:33:17 PM
0.29" here, but will take what I can get. At least by keeping the soil moist, we prevent a drought feedback.

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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: skillsweather on March 30, 2017, 03:00:42 AM
Some areas in Louisiana received 12 inchs of rain today! thats crazy lol. In 24hrs. Taken from NWS site.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on March 30, 2017, 10:00:25 AM
Denver is about to rack up one of its famous spring snow storms this weekend- 20 inches not out of the question in favored areas.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: justinmundie on March 30, 2017, 10:27:05 AM
New disco from OHX

Quote
Have cut back pops this morning into the early afternoon. By this
afternoon we should have plenty of available instability west of
I-65 and especially over northwestern Middle Tennessee. Clouds are
expected to continue to break up this morning which should allow
us to heat into the upper 70s and possibly low 80s. Look for
dewpoints to continue to surge into the 60s and further increase
instability. By 3pm cape values may be near 1500 to 2000 j/kg
with bulk shear around 40 to 50 knots over the west. This coupled
with 0-1 km helicity values of around 300 still point to a decent
severe weather with isolated tornado potential for late afternoon
through this evening. Wouldn`t be surprised to see a few isolated
strong to severe storms by 3pm with coverage and intensity
increasing through 7pm. The best timing for severe looks to be
this evening from 5pm to 9pm, with the strongest storms developing
in the northwestern counties in an area of stronger shear,
instability, and an 850 jet of around 50 knots.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on March 30, 2017, 11:00:51 AM
74/62 here. I have not looked at specifics lately but Ryan Vaughn tweeted that instability was a lot higher than forecast in eastern Arkansas.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on March 30, 2017, 11:09:30 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170330/cd6fab9ff1bd6da709ab744384a926e0.jpg)
There is the dry line moving into extreme eastern Arkansas about 50 miles west of the river with T storms now firing not severe along it
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on March 30, 2017, 11:04:21 PM
https://www.facebook.com/SPONSHUREDRIDER/videos/357542611122592/


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: skillsweather on March 31, 2017, 03:57:10 AM
Im kind of worried about how this springs starting to turn. We really haven't received to much rain and the forecast isn't looking that good either long term. I mean ok yes we have got rain several times each week but its all small amounts besides a few events. This is spring when normally we get a lot of rain. Hopefully things change later before summer hits. Obviously its not dry outside. (yet)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 31, 2017, 06:56:46 AM
Im kind of worried about how this springs starting to turn. We really haven't received to much rain and the forecast isn't looking that good either long term. I mean ok yes we have got rain several times each week but its all small amounts besides a few events. This is spring when normally we get a lot of rain. Hopefully things change later before summer hits. Obviously its not dry outside. (yet)
wouldnt worry just yet... pattern will reload by mid april with plenty storm chances to produce rain... most april much may should produce...
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Nashville_Wx on March 31, 2017, 09:54:22 AM
wouldnt worry just yet... pattern will reload by mid april with plenty storm chances to produce rain... most april much may should produce...
What pattern reload are you speaking of?
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on March 31, 2017, 09:59:47 AM
wouldnt worry just yet... pattern will reload by mid april with plenty storm chances to produce rain... most april much may should produce...

Cmon man show me a funnel pic then I might believe in this patten reload.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Eric on March 31, 2017, 11:20:34 AM
Cmon man show me a funnel pic then I might believe in this patten reload.

I'd be satisfied with a hand-drawn funnel cloud pic at this point.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: WXRocker on March 31, 2017, 12:37:45 PM
I'd be satisfied with a hand-drawn funnel cloud pic at this point.
(http://www.learnersdictionary.com/media/ld/images/legacy_print_images/funnel.gif)

Enjoy.  >:D
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 31, 2017, 01:56:49 PM
(http://www.learnersdictionary.com/media/ld/images/legacy_print_images/funnel.gif)

Enjoy.  >:D
that is to funny there now... lol... could be a ef2 forming ::rofl::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 31, 2017, 02:38:02 PM
(http://www.learnersdictionary.com/media/ld/images/legacy_print_images/funnel.gif)

Enjoy.  >:D

I like to ride my funnel pics.  ;D

(http://www.proslide.com/wp-content/uploads/tornad-45-funnels-indoor-water-cube-beijing-china-feature-800x800.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: justinmundie on March 31, 2017, 03:44:00 PM
Part of me respects Bruce's ability to continue ignoring our trolls about his fake storm chases. Credit where it's due I guess.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 31, 2017, 03:55:22 PM
Part of me respects Bruce's ability to continue ignoring our trolls about his fake storm chases. Credit where it's due I guess.

stay·ing pow·er
[stāiNG ˈpou(ə)r]

NOUN
informal
the ability to maintain an activity or commitment despite fatigue or difficulty; stamina:
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 31, 2017, 05:30:21 PM
the euro and the cmc says severe late sunday into monday... the gfs and the nam says it isnt happining... ;)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 31, 2017, 06:50:49 PM
Dogwood trees are on the verge of blooming here and right on schedule, Dogwood Winter looks to arrive late next week into the weekend. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on March 31, 2017, 08:02:44 PM
Dogwood trees are on the verge of blooming here and right on schedule, Dogwood Winter looks to arrive late next week into the weekend.
dogwood trees are in full bloom here... means the crappie are bitting. :)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on March 31, 2017, 09:34:53 PM
dogwood trees are in full bloom here... means the crappie are bitting. :)

Redbuds are in full bloom now, but dogwoods are just now showing signs of it.  Buds are barely starting to open.  Sounds like ya'll are about a week ahead of us there.
Title: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 01, 2017, 06:04:39 AM
Happy April!

(https://localtvwnep.files.wordpress.com/2017/03/april-giraffe-33117.jpg)

Of note, it looks like East TX is under the gun for tomorrow with a sizable moderate risk area there on Day 2.



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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on April 01, 2017, 06:34:53 AM
MRX is starting to talk about Monday's system.  Doesn't look severe at this point, but another round of wind and thunder:

Quote
A cold front will push into the region Monday afternoon and evening, bringing a chance for some strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. Small hail and locally damaging winds up to 60 mph will be the primary threats.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Brian on April 01, 2017, 07:45:52 AM
So, whatever happened to Kevin? I wasn't around to follow all of the happenings - only him posting some short and strangely macabre posts.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 01, 2017, 07:49:27 AM
Happy April!

(https://localtvwnep.files.wordpress.com/2017/03/april-giraffe-33117.jpg)

Of note, it looks like East TX is under the gun for tomorrow with a sizable moderate risk area there on Day 2.



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just like we were under the gun just the other day... same day 2 moderate risk zone... saw how that turned out, got shot with blanks.  lol interested see how this event turns out for them... ;)

Post Merge: April 01, 2017, 08:00:19 AM
the euro is dead set with this track running from ne arkansas to south central illinois... but best dynamics to stay south of us... for mondays setup... next thursday has potential, if we can obtain some better moisture return... ::coffee::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Eric on April 01, 2017, 03:19:30 PM
So, whatever happened to Kevin? I wasn't around to follow all of the happenings - only him posting some short and strangely macabre posts.

Nothing to see here.  Carry on.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: StormStalker on April 01, 2017, 07:50:10 PM
Temperatures were significantly cooler today than what was forecasted from yesterday. White House had a high of around 52 in comparison to the 64 or so we were forecasted to see. I'm hoping tomorrow's high of 76 actually verifies.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 01, 2017, 11:10:20 PM
starting to get interested in the system... next mid week ::coffee:: details to come
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Eric on April 01, 2017, 11:18:43 PM
You, sir, are more than likely the only one.  Let us know how it turns out.  I'm done.  I'm ready for 90s.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 02, 2017, 03:52:07 AM
The0z Euro just got real for threat next Wed. Color me interested...
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: andyhb on April 02, 2017, 05:44:22 AM
Well this is quite the active stretch over the next few days that looks to be shaping up. Whether it gets into TN is up for debate, but some area of the SE is likely to end up in a hairy situation one way or another.

First there is Monday, which I already have some serious questions regarding the impacts of the antecedent convection likely in the form of an MCS that will originate out of TX/LA Sunday. This could very easily wipe the warm sector of instability and effectively shift everything south and east (if not remove much of the threat entirely).

The trough swinging out negatively tilted with a strong mid/upper level level jet streak, a plume of 7+ C/km mid level lapse rates and a strengthening LLJ funnelling high BL moisture into the area would otherwise suggest a substantial severe threat that will need to be watched if the convection is more discrete than currently indicated (especially E into GA). I could certainly see a situation where the MCS breaks up into more discrete elements on the southern end or cells fire ahead of the line and potentially become tornadic in E AL/GA (as timing currently suggests).

However, the focus then shifts to Wednesday, which as currently depicted by the Euro (GFS seems too fast although it certainly still depicts a threatening look aloft), would easily be a potential high impact/end event. It is looking increasingly certain that a 90-100+ kt H5 jet streak will round the base of that trough Wednesday promoting ample deep layer shear for longer lived storms. In addition to that, the fact that moisture looks like it will be slow to return to the Plains on Tuesday suggests less potential for interference from prior convection on Wednesday (i.e. the BL remains capped).

What happens then is a surge of deep moisture into MS/AL (and possibly into Middle TN) leading to rapid and substantial destabilization when juxtaposed with another very healthy mid level lapse rate plume/EML. A very prominent pre-frontal trough (with backed surface winds in advance of it) is present on the Euro that would likely lead to storm development Wednesday afternoon. This would (taken verbatim) occur within a parameter space clearly into the range where significant tornadoes and very large hail would be possible. There has also been a shift towards a more consolidated and broad LLJ axis by 00z Thursday, which would only be more problematic.

Should probably note this shifts eastward towards the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic Wednesday night into Thursday. You might say, "this sort of has a 4/15-16/11 feel to it", and you'd be just in thinking so. The thing that spooks me is we are potentially dealing with thermodynamics on a significantly higher level than that event (also potentially with more latitudinal extent to the warm sector), and we all know how that event ended.

Bottom line is, there is potential for sig severe events on three of the next four days (I didn't even cover this afternoon/evening since it is mostly west of here). Wednesday right now looks like the highest potential for an outbreak, and it could be rather widespread. 2017 might be really showing its teeth.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 02, 2017, 06:35:57 AM
Andy comes out of hibernation. **** might be about to get real.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 02, 2017, 07:51:52 AM
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2017/day4prob_20170402_1200.gif)

Quote
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0355 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

   Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Organized severe thunderstorm development is possible across
   parts of the Ohio Valley and Southeast into the Mid Atlantic Coast
   region this coming Wednesday into Thursday...

   Amplification within the westerlies across the Pacific coast into
   the Plains by the middle of this week appears likely to shift
   eastward through the Atlantic Seaboard by next weekend.  Models
   suggest that this will support the continuing development of a broad
   deep lower/mid tropospheric cyclone through the Ohio Valley into the
   Northeast.  Rapid substantive moisture return to the warm sector of
   the cyclone appears possible in the wake of a previous cyclone,
   initially along a developing warm frontal zone across parts of
   Alabama and Georgia by early Wednesday, closer to the cyclone center
   across the Ohio Valley by Wednesday evening, and across the Mid
   Atlantic Coast region by Thursday.  Associated destabilization in
   the presence of favorable large-scale forcing for ascent and
   strengthening low-level and deep layer shear is expected to support
   considerable organized severe weather potential, including evolving
   storm clusters and discrete supercell activity.  Severe wind gusts
   and tornadoes will be possible with strongest activity, along with a
   risk for large hail.  It seems probable that areas of higher severe
   probabilities will be required in subsequent outlooks for this time
   frame.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 02, 2017, 08:00:33 AM
Andy comes out of hibernation. **** might be about to get real.
did i not tell you?.. ;)   see how it plays out with models on this
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 02, 2017, 08:11:43 AM
did i not tell you?.. ;)   see how it plays out with models on this
You also told me you had a funnel cloud pic.  >:D After looking at models , this looks concerning at this point. Maybe more questionable for Tn but Ms and Ala would be the bulls eye. The NAM looks like it is going the Euro route at the end of its run. Gonna be a busy week.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: StormNine on April 02, 2017, 08:12:38 AM
I'm going to go ahead and start the thread for the mid-week system.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 02, 2017, 08:59:19 AM
Large Moderate risk area issued for today in Eastern Texas and Northern Louisiana. The worst looks to stay south of I20
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Charles L. on April 02, 2017, 11:25:15 AM
Apparently a High risk will be issued at the next update?

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=SHV&issuedby=SHV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=SHV&issuedby=SHV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1)

If so, then I am shocked the new TOR Watch is not PDS. I thought all watches in a High risk area had to be PDS?
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 02, 2017, 11:54:17 AM
High risk is up... NE TX to N LA.


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: harlequin on April 02, 2017, 01:22:21 PM
2 fatalities in St. Martin Parish, LA from an unconfirmed tornado.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 02, 2017, 01:53:05 PM
For the moment, I'm enjoying the awesomeness of the day.  It's picture perfect, and I wish I could spend a whole week just enjoying how good it feels, and how beautiful it is in Tennessee in Spring.
Title: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 02, 2017, 01:57:32 PM
Quote
Rapides LA-
153 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
RAPIDES PARISH...
       
At 153 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located 8 miles west of Lecompte, or 11 miles north of Glenmora,
moving northeast at 25 mph.


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: StormNine on April 02, 2017, 03:15:25 PM
The supercell of the day in LA looks to track just west of Jena. There is a likely derecho (or at least a severe squall line) that is currently moving across the western part of Louisiana.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: skillsweather on April 02, 2017, 04:05:06 PM
Area just north east of Shreveport omg.. Thats a squall line for sure lol The bowing with that part of the line is insane..
 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: StormNine on April 02, 2017, 04:12:55 PM
Jena/Midway is under a Tornado Emergency. More tornadic supercells have formed ahead of what is likely a Progressive or Hybrid Derecho.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Charles L. on April 02, 2017, 05:05:23 PM
I know this point has been made countless times, but we need a radar site at Greeneville, MS.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 02, 2017, 05:53:48 PM
I know this point has been made countless times, but we need a radar site at Greeneville, MS.
Amen. That's one thing that I have never been able to understand.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Charles L. on April 02, 2017, 06:06:03 PM
Amen. That's one thing that I have never been able to understand.

It and Kirkville, MO are the two most glaring radar holes, IMO.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 02, 2017, 07:14:33 PM
The eye of the storm is moving into Memphis. Literally if you look at radar
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on April 02, 2017, 08:00:11 PM
The eye of the storm is moving into Memphis. Literally if you look at radar

Wake low? Winds picking up here
Title: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on April 02, 2017, 10:15:54 PM
Wow- definite wake low winds here. Getting gusts well over 50 mph now
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: NashRugger on April 03, 2017, 08:41:09 AM
Wow- definite wake low winds here. Getting gusts well over 50 mph now
There's a new wake low developing over Tupelo and Columbus now. MEG popped a sig wx advisory for it.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on April 04, 2017, 10:37:37 AM
The GFS has been insisting on a freeze Saturday morning at KCHA for several runs now. Bottoms out at 29.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: harlequin on April 05, 2017, 06:44:53 PM
Today MEG issued a Blowing Dusty Advisory for the SW Delta counties in AR and NW MS. Visibility was down to zero in numerous spots on Highway 61 and accidents occurred.

Quote
St. Francis-Lee AR-Phillips-Tunica-Coahoma-
Including the cities of Forrest City, Marianna, Helena,
West Helena, Tunica, and Clarksdale
407 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a Blowing Dust
Advisory, which is in effect until 10 PM CDT this evening.

* WINDS...Sustained winds around 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* VISIBILITY...Blowing dust will reduce visibilities to 3 miles or
  less, with localized reductions below 1/2 mile.

* TIMING...This afternoon and evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong southwest winds will result in the possibility
  of downed trees and power lines. In addition, high profile
  vehicles traveling along north-south roadways will be impacted.
  Blowing dust will reduce visibilities and result in hazardous
  travel.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 06, 2017, 06:42:27 PM

Cold, raw day here by any month's standard, much less April's.  Temps stuck in the mid 40's with light rain, and the occasional moderate downpour.  I drove home from work in one of the heavier bands and saw a few wet snowflakes hitting the windshield.  Showers this afternoon are somewhat convective in nature with gusty winds along the leading edge of the stronger cells. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: harlequin on April 06, 2017, 08:05:41 PM
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/82/2017_United_States_tornado_count.png)

Huh, I didn't realize we'd been so active this year. It has been pretty active, but there hasn't been a blockbuster outbreak.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 06, 2017, 09:57:49 PM
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/82/2017_United_States_tornado_count.png)

Huh, I didn't realize we'd been so active this year. It has been pretty active, but there hasn't been a blockbuster outbreak.

Wait- they adjust tornado counts for inflation?

I may be confused.


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: harlequin on April 07, 2017, 10:54:53 AM
Wait- they adjust tornado counts for inflation?

I may be confused.


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Ha. I didn't even think about that. Here's (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/adj.html (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/adj.html)) an explanation of the methodology used, although I won't pretend I read over it yet.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: justinmundie on April 08, 2017, 09:46:05 AM
I perused it.

Looks like they assume, and I think it's a valid assumption, that increasing population and communication, as well as modern radar data, make it easier to confirm small tornados that in the past were likely missed entirely.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 09, 2017, 09:16:56 AM
mid to long range models showing pretty much tranquil weather for quite while... jet stream seems be hanging pretty far north... keeping severe weather at bay pretty much... outside some minor threats for the plains n upper midwest thinigs going be quite... is severe weather already over for this part of the country?  thats the big question... think we have at least one more shot at it by last april first week may... time will tell... out to work on the pool and mow the yard later... :)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 11, 2017, 10:10:27 AM
Not liking this pattern change to mostly dry.  We just reduced the drought in TN to it's lowest level since last summer, and now it looks like it may resurge back into the area.  Rain systems are being defected mostly to our north and west, as the southeast ridge rears it's ugly head again.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: skillsweather on April 11, 2017, 03:01:02 PM
I was worried about this when we was getting big rain forecast and they stopped panning out a month ago. I just hope it changes fast I cant stand summer yet along dry hot summers... Grounds drying fast here with the 70s-80s and wind and sun plus lack of top soil moisture (at least at my house) some areas have received decent rains the past week or so but I have overall been missed by the bigger rains since earlier this year.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 13, 2017, 06:53:36 AM
Summer like pattern- 86 today; 88 tomorrow.


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 13, 2017, 07:56:42 AM
Summer like pattern- 86 today; 88 tomorrow.
 ::sleeping::

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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on April 13, 2017, 11:28:10 AM
Summer like pattern- 86 today; 88 tomorrow.


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Wow. That's a good 5 degrees warmer than my forecast down here. Must be some cooler air on this end of the state.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 13, 2017, 08:16:56 PM
83 is the forecast high here for tomorrow.  No high temp below 70 over the next 7-10 days.   The dog days of Spring are here folks. 

Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Clay on April 14, 2017, 02:24:38 PM
It's always nice when you're pushing upper 80s in Mid April with cloud cover. ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 16, 2017, 06:38:43 AM
Hope everyone has a blessed Easter today.  It's certainly not cold this year, as many Easter's have been in the past, but it did fall later into Spring this year.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on April 16, 2017, 07:04:24 AM
Hope everyone has a blessed Easter today.  It's certainly not cold this year, as many Easter's have been in the past, but it did fall later into Spring this year.
This morning was the first sunrise service I can remember in a long time that I didn't need a coat and also had enough natural light to easily read the program.  Falling later in the year certainly helped, but this is really beautiful weather.  Spent yesterday hiking at Cumberland Mountain State Park and up on the plateau it was just a touch cooler than in Knoxville and perfect for a day outside.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 16, 2017, 12:43:56 PM
This morning was the first sunrise service I can remember in a long time that I didn't need a coat and also had enough natural light to easily read the program.  Falling later in the year certainly helped, but this is really beautiful weather.  Spent yesterday hiking at Cumberland Mountain State Park and up on the plateau it was just a touch cooler than in Knoxville and perfect for a day outside.

I stopped by Townsend yesterday for "Founder's Day," and I thought it was hot for this time of the year.  Thankfully, clouds moved in during the afternoon and tempered the temperatures a bit.   ::hot::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 17, 2017, 06:56:33 AM
Hopefully some beneficial rains this week. Maybe something to keep an eye on toward the weekend:

Quote
For D6/Saturday and beyond, some risk for severe
   weather may organize downstream across parts of the lower/mid
   Mississippi Valley and points east, but confidence remains low in
   the location/timing of any such threat.

Both MEG and OHX mention they are keeping any eye on the "potent/intense" system with MEG mentioning strong to severe storms possible on Saturday in today's HWO.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Vols1 on April 17, 2017, 07:32:16 AM
Looks like it could be a good shot of severe weather Saturday. Need to watch this one closely.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Eric on April 17, 2017, 07:44:38 AM
Looks like it could be a good shot of severe weather Saturday. Need to watch this one closely.

Quote
For D4/Thursday, a sheared shortwave trough will advance across the
   Great Lakes, with an attendant surface front pushing east/southeast
   across Indiana and Ohio. While enhanced westerly flow aloft and some
   boundary layer moistening may yield a few severe storms, the threat
   appears too marginal for a probabilistic area at this time. By
   D5/Friday, a mid-level trough will gradually approach the
   southern/central Plains. Guidance continues to indicate uncertainty
   regarding the amplitude/orientation of the trough, suggesting low
   predictability of pertinent surface features impacting
   severe-weather potential. Therefore, while severe weather appears
   possible across parts of Texas and Oklahoma Friday, no probabilities
   are introduced. For D6/Saturday and beyond, some risk for severe
   weather may organize downstream across parts of the lower/mid
   Mississippi Valley and points east, but confidence remains low in
   the location/timing of any such threat
.

Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 17, 2017, 11:58:14 AM
Currently an absolute flash flood in the burg with marble size hail.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 17, 2017, 02:15:43 PM
There is a SVR warning currently for Carroll County for a cell near Huntingdon.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on April 17, 2017, 02:20:40 PM
These are those storms that are mostly less severe but are gully washers- huge pelting drops.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 17, 2017, 04:55:20 PM
Storms moving through Nashville metro right at rush hour. Traffic appears to be gridlocked all over... going to give it a few minutes before I get out in this mess.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on April 17, 2017, 04:58:01 PM
Currently in stand still traffic on 55 in a downpour in MEM


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 17, 2017, 05:01:58 PM
FFW in effect for parts of Dickson, Hickman, and western Williamson. Radar estimates topping 3" in some of those places.

Deluge in Brentwood right now... trapped in office without an umbrella.  ::rain:: ::rant::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Coach B on April 18, 2017, 07:47:33 AM
FFW in effect for parts of Dickson, Hickman, and western Williamson. Radar estimates topping 3" in some of those places.

Deluge in Brentwood right now... trapped in office without an umbrella.  ::rain:: ::rant::

I hope we get our share down this way today. I was still kicking up dust going down the drive this morning. Need some rain!
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 18, 2017, 08:14:32 AM
I hope we get our share down this way today. I was still kicking up dust going down the drive this morning. Need some rain!

Not much rain yesterday around you? It took me over an hour to get home yesterday on what would be a 20-minute drive in light traffic.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 18, 2017, 08:43:53 AM
At the moment the GFS has east Arkansas, west Tennessee and extreme southern Missouri in the sweet spot for severe on Saturday. The Euro has the low further south and says nothing to see here.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Coach B on April 18, 2017, 08:50:34 AM
Not much rain yesterday around you? It took me over an hour to get home yesterday on what would be a 20-minute drive in light traffic.

Nope. We got a light shower, but it was still dry under the trees. Looked like the northern parts of Wayne, Lawrence, Giles, and into southern Marshall were the losers yesterday in the rain dept. Did get another light shower this morning. Garden is about 2/3rds planted so we could use it.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Crockett on April 18, 2017, 09:03:44 AM
It didn't rain a drop here yesterday. The storms/showers began developing right along I-40 and stayed south all evening. I'm not complaining, even though -- like Coach -- my garden is planted, because it looks like we'll all have plenty of rain by the end of the weekend.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 18, 2017, 09:54:29 AM
Today's HWO says a few strong storms are possible this afternoon again with small hail and gusty winds.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 18, 2017, 12:23:52 PM
South of I-40 looks like a case of the pox. Lots of little downpours cropping up at this hour.


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Post Merge: April 18, 2017, 04:08:40 PM
Wife reports hail in downtown Nashville. I can see the returns there on radar.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: justinmundie on April 18, 2017, 05:25:30 PM
Got a massive deluge in Nashville proper today.

With the weekend possibly severe high precipitation event on the models, starting to get concerned about flooding.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: NashRugger on April 18, 2017, 06:01:56 PM
Surprising microburst with a little more oomph than usual popped Donelson & Hermitage with multiple large trees uprooted, many more snapped, and also some structure damage. There was no SVR warning at the time.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: skillsweather on April 18, 2017, 06:08:45 PM
Got a massive deluge in Nashville proper today.

With the weekend possibly severe high precipitation event on the models, starting to get concerned about flooding.
Quite the opposite here. More worried about a drought here. Ive got missed by all the storms yesterday and today a little rain maybe .3 in total but that aint going to cut it when ive been missed by a lot of storms for awhile. Hopefully this weekend changes thing.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Vols1 on April 18, 2017, 08:02:29 PM
Justin what are the models showing for Saturday now. Still looking like a good severe event? Lots of rain for sure.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 18, 2017, 09:17:17 PM
Radar estimates showing up to 5" in parts of western Williamson to southern Davidson Counties.


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: justinmundie on April 18, 2017, 09:20:06 PM
Justin what are the models showing for Saturday now. Still looking like a good severe event? Lots of rain for sure.

Nothing spectacular, and the low has shifted south a bit. But lots and lots of water. When you have severe type dynamics and saturated ground, flash flooding starts to become a big issue.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 19, 2017, 05:47:50 AM
Have a risk on Day 4 (Saturday) now that includes part of the state.


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 19, 2017, 07:17:05 AM
Areas south and west of Knoxville have had a deluge of rain, but those of us east of I-75 (east of Knoxville) have seen far less rainfall amounts so far this week.  I’ve recorded a third of an inch—and that’s it.  I still welcome the soaking rainfall coming this weekend. 

(https://radar.weather.gov/lite/NTP/MRX_0.png)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on April 19, 2017, 07:56:35 AM
Almost 3" of rain IMBY since Monday evening. Most I've seen in quite a long time. The grass is loving it. It hasn't been this green here since Spring 2015.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 19, 2017, 08:03:48 AM
Almost 3" of rain IMBY since Monday evening. Most I've seen in quite a long time. The grass is loving it. It hasn't been this green here since Spring 2015.

Congrats!  Much needed by all green & growing things after the heat and drought of 2016.  We're green here, but a soaking is still needed after last week's wind and warmth.  Hoping for 1-2 inches this weekend. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 19, 2017, 11:34:56 AM
Latest runs on the Euro  for late next week ... ::coffee:: ::yum::

Post Merge: April 19, 2017, 11:47:35 AM
Latest runs on the Euro  for late next week ... ::coffee:: ::yum::
well..  Memphis in May event is lurking... Been known for some adverse weather events...
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 19, 2017, 11:52:25 AM
Latest runs on the Euro  for late next week ... ::coffee:: ::yum::

Post Merge: April 19, 2017, 11:47:35 AM
well..  Memphis in May event is lurking... Been known for some adverse weather events...
I'm pretty sure you are talking to yourself.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Vols1 on April 19, 2017, 12:26:02 PM
How's Saturday looking
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: wfrogge on April 19, 2017, 08:59:53 PM
How's Saturday looking

Wet
Title: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 20, 2017, 05:52:22 AM
Saturday's risk has been shifted further south into central MS. TN just marginal.

Still looks wet.


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Vols1 on April 20, 2017, 09:40:12 AM
Any chance that low jogs north to get north mid tn in the severe mix?
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: meigs497 on April 20, 2017, 11:21:19 AM
at work how wet dose it look for Bristol this week in
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: wfrogge on April 20, 2017, 11:52:45 AM
Any chance that low jogs north to get north mid tn in the severe mix?

Not really. Better chance of it jogging further south.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 20, 2017, 12:00:32 PM
I am way more interested in late next week... Nice return flow from gulf with a fairly long broad base trough coming in . Euro been pretty consistent with this... raises some eyebrows ... ::coffee::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on April 20, 2017, 12:54:00 PM
I am way more interested in late next week... Nice return flow from gulf with a fairly long broad base trough coming in . Euro been pretty consistent with this... raises some eyebrows ... ::coffee::

If I had a nickel for every time something raised your eyebrows..... ::twocents:: ::twocents::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 20, 2017, 02:38:24 PM
The12z Euro continues to show a large scale severe event. Late next week.  Could be a multiple day event if correct.  Something to track for sure
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Vols1 on April 20, 2017, 03:26:08 PM
Next Friday?
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 20, 2017, 03:46:21 PM
Next Friday?
Friday into Saturday
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Eric on April 20, 2017, 04:30:25 PM
(http://i68.tinypic.com/rmnq1c.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 20, 2017, 04:59:21 PM
(http://i68.tinypic.com/rmnq1c.jpg)
maybe i get a better pic of a real tornado next week...
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Crockett on April 20, 2017, 06:40:28 PM
maybe i get a real pic of a better tornado next week...

FIFY
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 21, 2017, 02:40:02 PM
12z models hold serve on large scale severe event late next week for large area including parts midsouth as we progress  ::coffee::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: skillsweather on April 21, 2017, 03:04:35 PM
Well once again this weekend turns out to not be a big rain event as thought. Was 3 inchs basically over I-40 north now its only up to 1 inch for this weekend.. I mean I guess got to take whatever precip we can get at this point before it really becomes a problem this summer. Not liking all this dry weather at all especially in spring.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 21, 2017, 03:09:14 PM
Spc got slight risk out for mid tenn now tomorrow
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Vols1 on April 21, 2017, 03:21:44 PM
What day would that possibly come through mid Tennessee?
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 21, 2017, 03:27:57 PM
What day would that possibly come through mid Tennessee?
if the. Trough continues to progress East be late Sat.   But still got to iron things out.  Slight risk tomorrow for your area. But let 12z Euro today verbatim.  Be big outbreak from  gulf coast to lower Ohio valley
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: WXHD on April 21, 2017, 03:38:02 PM
We have a celebration after a funeral tomorrow. Our family is worried about the rain messing things up. I haven't been able to keep up with the forecast. Can anyone give a Tl;Dr for expected totals tomorrow in Nashville. It would be greatly appreciated. We have a large tent setup but people still have to get to it. Thanks
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: StormStalker on April 21, 2017, 03:39:31 PM
This rain needs to clear up by next week so I can catch some more bass.  ::fingerscrossed::

Post Merge: April 21, 2017, 04:03:53 PM
The storm north of Shelbyville has an interesting little area of rotation with it.

And now it's tornado warned.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: justinmundie on April 21, 2017, 04:05:06 PM
This rain needs to clear up by next week so I can catch some more bass.  ::fingerscrossed::

Post Merge: April 21, 2017, 04:03:53 PM
The storm north of Shelbyville has an interesting little area of rotation with it.

It's warned now. Pretty tight couplet. wouldn't be surprised if there's a touchdown there
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: StormStalker on April 21, 2017, 04:05:56 PM
It's warned now. Pretty tight couplet. wouldn't be surprised if there's a touchdown there
Yep. I've been watching and dissecting it on GR2Analyst for the past ten minutes or so now.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JHart on April 21, 2017, 09:34:59 PM
Quote
Flash Flood Watch

Issued: 8:20 PM CDT Apr. 21, 2017 – National Weather Service
... Flash Flood Watch in effect from 3 am CDT Saturday through
late Saturday night...

The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of middle Tennessee, including
  the following areas, Bedford, Cannon, Cheatham, Clay, Coffee,
  Cumberland, Davidson, De Kalb, Dickson, Fentress, Giles,
  Grundy, Hickman, Houston, Humphreys, Jackson, Lawrence, Lewis,
  Macon, Marshall, Maury, Montgomery, Overton, Perry, Pickett,
  Putnam, Robertson, Rutherford, Smith, Stewart, Sumner,
  Trousdale, Van Buren, Warren, Wayne, white, Williamson, and
  Wilson.

* From 3 am CDT Saturday through late Saturday night

* one, to locally around three inches of rainfall especially
  across northwest and northern portions of middle Tennessee.
 
* With saturated ground conditions across middle Tennessee,
  additional rainfall could lead to runoff resulting in quick
  flooding of roads, poor drainage areas, low lying locations,
  along with secondary rivers and streams across the area.
 
Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to quick flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous
situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 21, 2017, 09:41:28 PM
We had heavy gust front come through late this afternoon and cool things way down. It is a chilly 54 here and there is a SVR warned storm not far to my west. Crazy
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 21, 2017, 09:46:49 PM
Torrential rain currently falling here.  Storms moving north from the mountains merged with a line of storms coming east from Knoxville.  The sky has opened up for the last 30 minutes, and there is water standing in my front yard where I've not seen it standing before, and the gutters are actually overflowing.  And it only seems to be getting heavier as I type this. 

Post Merge: April 22, 2017, 05:53:32 AM
I had 1.87" in the rain gauge this morning.  Top soil pretty well saturated.  Wise for MRX to put east TN under a Flash Flood Watch considering the rain still to come. 

(http://www.weather.gov/images/mrx/graphicast/image6.png)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 22, 2017, 08:45:03 AM
Localized flooding this morning.


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JHart on April 22, 2017, 09:13:14 AM
We picked up 2.14 inches of rain since mid morning yesterday for a total of 2.84 inches since Monday.  Area creeks are running, and there is some minor ponding in yards.  All in all, we had a much-needed soaking last night ... out here at least.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 22, 2017, 09:21:59 AM
Had to do some repair work on the gravel driveway this morning.  Rain overflow from the road washed part of it into a rut.  Most of the 1.87" of rain fell in a one hour window of storms yesterday evening.  I think the biggest part of it ran off, because the ground can absorb that much water quickly enough. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Lcwthrnut on April 22, 2017, 09:47:01 AM
Picked up 3.05" from yesterday morning till about 8:30 this morning.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: cliftown04 on April 22, 2017, 09:51:01 AM
3.07 yesterday evening and last night. I think that may be the highest 24 hour amount I've had in a year or two.  I'm so happy to have it!
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Sbeagles on April 22, 2017, 02:13:51 PM
Got 4.5'' in gauge since yesterday afternoon. Banks of creek in front of house are about maxed out
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on April 22, 2017, 02:20:53 PM
Only about 0.20" here so far. Had a nice looking complex try to move through this morning, but it completely fell apart as it entered the valley. I have now had over 3" since Monday evening, but not much from this second round so far.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 22, 2017, 02:41:58 PM
Really glad to see some good rain totals for folks over that way. I have had 3.3 for the month of April. 2.9 of that in the last 5 days. We were having a dry month with only .4 through the first 17 days.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: skillsweather on April 22, 2017, 02:45:31 PM
Finally not missed. This mornings batch looked to soak everybody so thats good. I have probably recieved 4 inchs yesterday and today. No way for me to measure though so thats just a guess going off the NWS. And adding a little because it always ends up more then what it shows for me because of radar problems ect.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 22, 2017, 03:56:16 PM
There have been some TOR warnings this afternoon even in southern Middle TN.


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Brian on April 22, 2017, 04:00:46 PM
Looks like a hook on the radar in southern middle right now. That's what brought me here. Wasn't expecting that.
There have been some TOR warnings this afternoon even in southern Middle TN.


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 22, 2017, 04:12:56 PM
Severe T-Storm warning for Knox Co--and Knoxville proper.

Post Merge: April 22, 2017, 05:54:16 PM
Severe storm that hit Knoxville grazed by here, and boy, it was DARK.  I think the only thing that could make it darker is the total eclipse coming in August.

Now there is very heavy rain falling in the storm's wake, along with lightning and thunder, but the wind came and went.  I think the worst of the wind barely missed me to the north, and I'm not complaining.

With the heavy rain occurring now, MRX has issued several Flash Flood Warnings for the area, and considering what will fall overnight continuing into Sunday(see graphic below), I think there could be a lot of high water issues by tomorrow afternoon.  Drought goes bye-bye, and now we have flooding.   ::drowning::

Ah, gotta love weather in Tennessee. 

(http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1492901811485)

Post Merge: April 22, 2017, 06:25:32 PM
One final note--cool temps + moderate rain + low, slow rumbling thunder in the background = absolutely perfect sleeping weather tonight. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 22, 2017, 07:12:09 PM
It is a long ways out but dang at some of the runs the models are spitting out for end of next week. The consistency is scary to be that far out.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: wfrogge on April 22, 2017, 08:42:25 PM
This
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: skillsweather on April 22, 2017, 08:49:19 PM
WHat are they showing next week as in this week coming up or what?
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 23, 2017, 12:11:08 AM
It is a long ways out but dang at some of the runs the models are spitting out for end of next week. The consistency is scary to be that far out.
what i been saying... the euro run today is still showing large scale event later next week ::coffee::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Vols1 on April 23, 2017, 12:24:44 AM
It seems to be wanting to hold it back in the plains for a couple days. I think you'll see a faster timeframe soon. I'm banking on it Friday evening here. But we will know more when we're a couple days closer.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 23, 2017, 12:29:57 AM
It seems to be wanting to hold it back in the plains for a couple days. I think you'll see a faster timeframe soon. I'm banking on it Friday evening here. But we will know more when we're a couple days closer.
yeah, just made post on that on other board... trough seems to slow up some... but still looks nasty... interesting see how models handle timing
Title: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 23, 2017, 04:49:37 AM
Just for clarity for the readers- this risk is primarily for the Plains that we're talking about- traditional Tornado Alley areas, not as much Tennessee, though severe risks can't be ruled out toward next weekend yet, especially the further west you are in the state.


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 23, 2017, 05:34:14 AM
MEG Starting to bite on the severe weather during week. There getting concerned especially bout late week ...
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Vols1 on April 23, 2017, 05:56:19 AM
What day are they thinking?
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 23, 2017, 06:21:11 AM
What day are they thinking?
concerned with two systems... thrusday and end week weekend... which has my attention mostly... all severe modes on the table including tornadoes... system for next weekend going to have high cape and high shear both to work with... going be active pattern appears coming ::coffee::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 23, 2017, 06:35:31 AM
Quote
000


By Wednesday, an upper level trough will move east across the Mid
South and take on an increasingly negatively tilt which should
promote increasing instability as low level moisture surges back
over the region. Latest model guidance suggests CAPE values
increasing to between 1000-2000 j/kg, especially along and west of
the Mississippi River, along with mid level lapse rates
approaching 8 c/km by afternoon. In addition, deep layer shear
increases to 60+ kts by afternoon along with 0-1 km SRH values
between 100-200 m2/s2. The combination of moderate instability and
strong shear should support the development of severe
thunderstorms for Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. At
this time, it appears there is the potential for all severe
weather modes. This system will need to be monitored closely with
threats refined over the next few forecast cycles. Plan to keep
mention of severe potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

As the upper level trough swings northeast later Wednesday night,
a cold front will push through the region bringing an end to the
thunderstorm chances. This front should stall to the south over
central Mississippi and Alabama on Thursday. This should allow for
mainly dry weather conditions and slightly cooler temperatures for
Thursday.

The front will lift back north as a warm front by Thursday night
and Friday as the mid and upper flow becomes southwesterly in
response to a strong upper low digging across the four corners
region. This warm front should become quite active as a shortwave
trough embedded within the flow moves across the region and
interacts with the front. Strong deep layer shear on the order of
60+ kts precedes the shortwave and overspreads the warm front.
Strong 0-1 km SRH is present in the vicinity of the warm front
with models suggesting values between 300-400 m2/s2 late Thursday
night into Friday. Also, strong instability along and south of the
front with CAPE values near 3000 j/kg could spell an enhanced
severe weather potential with all severe hazards again possible
with supercell thunderstorms forming along the warm front. This
will be closely watched through the forecast period.

By Friday night, the warm front should be well north of the region
with middle and upper level heights rising. This should persist
into Saturday as the upper low and associated deep troughing moves
slowly east into the Plains states. This should result in a mostly
dry, warm, and humid day for Saturday. High temperatures should
reach into the 80s over most locations. Slightly low heights over
western areas could support a few scattered afternoon and evening
storms. The upper trough finally nudges into the area by next
Sunday with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to end the
weekend. A few of these storms may also be severe and will need to
be monitored through the forecast period. Temperatures should
remain above average through much of next weekend.

JLH



&&

Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Vols1 on April 23, 2017, 06:49:05 AM
Wow. Sounds like a very active next 7 days!
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 23, 2017, 06:51:52 AM
thanks dyer... i tried to paste it... wouldnt let me for some reason
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Vols1 on April 23, 2017, 06:53:07 AM
Where do you get that reading from?
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 23, 2017, 06:55:57 AM
Where do you get that reading from?
just google  MEG afd... memphis nws office... do the same for other offices   OHX nashville... BMX  birmingham... KLZK little rock... KPAH paducah for examples...
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Vols1 on April 23, 2017, 06:57:39 AM
Haha I found it. I forgot he was posting the one from Memphis not Nashville. I guess I'm still asleep haha
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 23, 2017, 07:08:09 AM
Another 1.44" of rain in the gauge this morning with it still pouring down.  Two day total of 3.31".  Pond nearby is full to overflowing.  I think there will be some major flooding going on by this evening with another 1-2 inches of rain forecast today.  Mudslides a good possibility around the burned areas, as well. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 23, 2017, 07:13:22 AM
Another 1.44" of rain in the gauge this morning with it still pouring down.  Two day total of 3.31".  Pond nearby is full to overflowing.  I think there will be some major flooding going on by this evening with another 1-2 inches of rain forecast today.  Mudslides a good possibility around the burned areas, as well.
yeah   who ever is just north up the warm front boundary this week... going have to worry about flooding issues... areas north iinto mid ms valley look primed... we should be south of front... still with systems up coming this week going produce heavy rain at times to go with the other severe stuff... we are offically in the prime time of our severe weather season as we speak..
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Vols1 on April 23, 2017, 07:55:03 AM
This looks to be a fun week!
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on April 23, 2017, 08:08:19 AM
I'm at 2.02" since this started last night, nearly 5" this week. Probably have another inch or so to go before this ends.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: WXHD on April 23, 2017, 08:16:15 AM
I had emptied my pond to clean the sediment out last week. Never got the chance. It's full again. An the bucket I had next to it has 5ish inches of water in it. That's a lot of rain in the Bellevue area.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 23, 2017, 10:50:13 AM
(http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/images/mcd0138.gif)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 23, 2017, 11:01:32 AM
I noticed that pivot over west Tn this morning. Would have been bullseye in a winter situation.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: StormNine on April 23, 2017, 11:32:22 AM
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1492964543

Looks quite rainy next weekend especially just to our west. At this time the SPC has highlighted SE MO into Arkansas for a severe threat on Wednesday questions remain on how much into KY/TN this threat will extend. Next weekend has the potential to be a rough weather weekend in the Plains and over towards the Ouachita Mountains. Questions remain on whether this will extend over to our area as well.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on April 23, 2017, 12:23:24 PM
(http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/images/mcd0138.gif)
I was just about to post that the rain rates have really increased here over the last hour. The back edge of the precip is really slowing down as well. Just over 3" has fallen since last night, with over 6" now since Monday night.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 23, 2017, 12:35:43 PM
Hail storm in Pegram


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Sbeagles on April 23, 2017, 01:22:49 PM
6" since Friday afternoon and currently coming a pretty good little thundershower at 53 degrees. Won't complain about a good rain, but won't be fishing the Buffalo river for a few days.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 23, 2017, 01:54:50 PM
12z euro today... ::wow::  for system late next week...
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Vols1 on April 23, 2017, 02:10:47 PM
For here or the plains?
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 23, 2017, 02:11:21 PM
Been a nice indoor day today watching it rain, and I don't mind them on occasion.  At any rate, it sure beats those too hot to be outside summer days.  Either way, you're stuck indoors, and I'd rather be stuck inside watching it rain than watching the sun cook everything like last year.

Got a few windows open, and it's a little chilly--but, again, still better than 90F.  It hasn't stopped raining at any point during the day, and it's been a light to moderate good soaking rain that isn't all running off due to extreme rainfall rates.  All in all, it's been a very relaxing "chill" day.     
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 23, 2017, 02:12:11 PM
For here or the plains?
ark... north ms... west  part mid tn... west ky... mo bootheel...
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Vols1 on April 23, 2017, 02:24:14 PM
Has it sped up any Bruce?
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 23, 2017, 02:26:02 PM
Has it sped up any Bruce?
if anything  maybe just tad...  but consistency with this is amazing...
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Vols1 on April 23, 2017, 02:27:09 PM
Yeah the consistency is scary.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: WXHD on April 23, 2017, 03:06:34 PM
Where's the rain building west of Nashville going to go? Almost looks like it's going to keep filling in and just sit there.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: cliftown04 on April 23, 2017, 03:17:04 PM
After this weekends rain if we get heavy rain next weekend we will have some issues for sure. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on April 23, 2017, 03:29:26 PM
Where's the rain building west of Nashville going to go? Almost looks like it's going to keep filling in and just sit there.
It will stay there and slowly erode as the ull moves east. HRRR is estimating over 1" of additional rain in that area in the next 10 hours. It initialized the eastern precip incorrectly, but it looks pretty close with that derformation zone. That area would be absolutely buried if it was winter.
Looks like the eastern band of rain has picked up momentum and is clearing out pretty quickly from SW to NE now. Just some scattered convective showers left over here now. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Beth on April 23, 2017, 07:37:18 PM
I have had to let some of the water out of my pool 3 times since last Tuesday. Had to let some out yesterday afternoon and this afternoon too. Rain gage was 5 inches yesterday and already another inch today. My brother in north Alabama has only had a couple of inches since Monday. They need it more than we do. I am so ready for some sunshine and no rain for a while. My tomatoes are going to start rotting in the ground if we don't get a break soon!  :P
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: bigdog660 on April 24, 2017, 12:07:06 AM
4/21 - 0.45"
4/22 - 2.09"
4/23 - 2.28"

Total for the month so far: 8.13" ::drowning::

Love to see this wet pattern continue, albeit no flooding. :D
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 24, 2017, 05:05:44 AM
large day 7 now cover all west tn. into mid tn.... paster not working  lol... interesting week ahead ::coffee::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Crockett on April 24, 2017, 07:09:14 AM
if anything  maybe just tad...  but consistency with this is amazing...

You mean run-to-run consistency on one model...certainly there's no consistency between models. Just want to clarify that for casual followers.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on April 24, 2017, 07:19:29 AM
The weekend is shaping up to be interesting for East TN as well, not with severe weather but with the possibility of record-breaking high temperatures on Saturday.  ::blowtorch:: 88-89 degrees in April isn't unheard of but is incredibly HOT for so early in the season.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on April 24, 2017, 09:06:41 AM
Severe is definitely a poss this week on several occasions especially west, not to mention someone in that region getting some locally heavy rain. I can see at least 3 potential time frames for heavy rain as a really good bet.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Vols1 on April 24, 2017, 09:26:49 AM
How is Friday looking for west middle tn?
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on April 24, 2017, 11:44:29 AM
The weekend is shaping up to be interesting for East TN as well, not with severe weather but with the possibility of record-breaking high temperatures on Saturday.  ::blowtorch:: 88-89 degrees in April isn't unheard of but is incredibly HOT for so early in the season.
Last year we hit 85 on March 15 and didn't really look back. It's definitely still been above normal this spring, but I feel like we are doing way better than last year so far. We definitely have had more rain out this way.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 24, 2017, 12:42:09 PM
yikes... 12zgfs increases the EHI level to nearing 6.5 eastern ark... west tn ... north ms later sunday... ::coffee::

Post Merge: April 24, 2017, 12:43:24 PM
shortwave sunday  seems the strongest of the week
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Vols1 on April 24, 2017, 01:28:09 PM
Wow!! How about Friday Bruce? All modes still?
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Eric on April 24, 2017, 02:52:08 PM
Shallow moisture and a nuclear cap may proclivit a higher end threat being realized.  12z GFS skew-Ts for west TN exhibit a very discernible temperature inversion very near the surface.  The temp will have to reach 87-89F before the cap erodes and highs are only progged to be in the upper 70s.  If that cap doesn't break, you're not getting any convection.
 Not too impressed with windfields and there's little to no LLJ.  CAPE is good.  Shear is meh.  Reason the EHI is so high, the CAPE values are over 3000 in and along the MS Delta regions.   ::coffee::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 24, 2017, 03:34:59 PM
Shallow moisture and a nuclear cap may proclivit a higher end threat being realized.  12z GFS skew-Ts for west TN exhibit a very discernible temperature inversion very near the surface.  The temp will have to reach 87-89F before the cap erodes and highs are only progged to be in the upper 70s.  If that cap doesn't break, you're not getting any convection.
 Not too impressed with windfields and there's little to no LLJ.  CAPE is good.  Shear is meh.  Reason the EHI is so high, the CAPE values are over 3000 in and along the MS Delta regions.   ::coffee::
still impressed wit this system coming later this weekend... meg doesnt seem worried about the cap onversion getting broke... we see ::coffee::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 24, 2017, 03:37:28 PM
Good write up by Ryan Vaughn.

http://ryansmorningblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/severe-storms-this-week.html?m=1
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Eric on April 24, 2017, 03:37:55 PM
still impressed wit this system coming later this weekend... meg doesnt seem worried about the cap onversion getting broke... we see ::coffee::

The only way that cap gets broken is if the 900-950mb temps don't hit 90F or the surface warms up.  Honestly, I don't know where it's picking up those readings, anyway.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 24, 2017, 03:41:56 PM
The only way that cap gets broken is if the 900-950mb temps don't hit 90F or the surface warms up.  Honestly, I don't know where it's picking up those readings, anyway.
guess we have plenty model watching to look forward too... see how things evolve... ;)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on April 24, 2017, 05:17:27 PM
5-8 inch rain amounts in the west half of TN- both on GFs and euro over 7 day period. ::drowning:: ::drowning::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 24, 2017, 10:49:43 PM
5-8 inch rain amounts in the west half of TN- both on GFs and euro over 7 day period. ::drowning:: ::drowning::

That would be problematic.


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: cliftown04 on April 25, 2017, 06:03:36 AM
QPF map keeps creeping heavier totals east.  We had more wash issues in the yard this past weekend than we have had in some time. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 25, 2017, 08:16:04 AM
OHX AFD:

Quote
A more substantial severe and heavy rain threat appears possible
on Friday as a large warm sector develops across the southeast
CONUS ahead of a very large H5 trough develop across the country.
00Z guidance depicts a warm front lifting northward across the
state Friday morning with a very warm and moist airmass moving in
from the south, with dewpoints rising into the mid to possibly
upper 60s and PWATs increasing to near the daily max of 1.5-1.6
inches. Forecast soundings indicate MLCAPE potentially rising to
around 2000 J/Kg by Friday afternoon with deep layer shear
increasing to around 50 knots. Main uncertainty revolves around a
potential trigger for convection as GFS/ECMWF show no significant
vort max or shortwave trough aloft, main jet streak passing to our
north/northwest, and a weak cap in place. Nevertheless, both
models develop considerable convection across the area, especially
the Euro, with forecast parameters indicating potential strong to
severe storms along with heavy rainfall. For now have kept pops
low on Friday due to the aforementioned uncertainties.

Any showers and storms will mostly lift out of the area Friday
night with Saturday being the warmest day of the forecast period
as well as likely the most humid, with highs well into the 80s.
With airmass remaining fairly unstable, cannot rule out a pop up
storm Saturday afternoon so will have a low pop in place. The
large H5 trough in the Plains looks to finally eject out into our
neck of the woods on Sunday into Sunday night with 00Z GFS/ECMWF
in good agreement on timing. Forecast parameters and soundings
once again show potential for strong to severe storms and heavy
rainfall with this system, with weak to moderate MLCAPE, strong
deep layer shear around 60 knots, and very high PWATS up to 1.6
inches. However, once again several uncertainties exist this far
out in time, including potential for a Gulf Coast MCS disrupting
moisture return this far north as 00Z GFS suggests. Regardless,
showers and storms appear likely during this timeframe and will
show likely pops for late in the weekend. Once this system exits
by Monday, a return to near normal temperatures and dry weather is
anticipated for early next week.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on April 25, 2017, 08:50:45 AM
(http://i67.tinypic.com/5fjlg9.png)

10 day euro precip totals..GFS is less robust but still has lots of precip
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 25, 2017, 08:51:10 AM
Short range latest want to speed up timing bit on tommorws storms... could be some discrete activity early front of the line . See at lunch if spc scoots the enhanced some east...
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 25, 2017, 09:03:51 AM
(http://i67.tinypic.com/5fjlg9.png)

10 day euro precip totals..GFS is less robust but still has lots of precip

Wow, if this keeps up, major river flooding could eventually become a problem. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Vols1 on April 25, 2017, 09:20:25 AM
I personally think Friday may be worse than Sunday. With severe storms and more flooding.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Crockett on April 25, 2017, 09:28:33 AM
After this past weekend, we'll let you guys in West Tennessee have the next 10 days, if you don't mind.  ;D We're not mountainous enough for severe flash flooding, yet too mountainous for severe urban/aerial flooding, but we probably had the worst flooding event of my lifetime this past weekend, with up to 10" of rain in spots. One state highway is still closed and a lot of backroads are still closed.

I'm good with a little rain Thursday morning and a few storms Friday as long as Saturday is dry.  ::flag::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Eric on April 25, 2017, 09:29:32 AM
No more water.  We're already about a week behind with baseball games.  At this rate we'll be playing into July.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Crockett on April 25, 2017, 11:27:00 AM
No more water. 

Okay, I like your wish better than mine. Let the baseball games, soccer matches and barbecues commence... ;D
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: snowdog on April 25, 2017, 03:51:21 PM
No more water.  We're already about a week behind with baseball games.  At this rate we'll be playing into July.

More water = saturated soils = decreased chances of seeing 100+ temps this summer.  I'll take more water.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on April 25, 2017, 04:00:02 PM
Meg states "long track tornadoes " possible just west of the river tomorrow afternoon and evening.  CIPS = May 2, 2008= Earle Arkansas F3
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Eric on April 25, 2017, 04:01:59 PM
Meg states "long track tornadoes " possible just west of the river tomorrow afternoon and evening.  CIPS = May 2, 2008= Earle Arkansas F3

Remember that one vividly...my first TOR.  Was with Ron that day.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 25, 2017, 04:05:24 PM
Meg states "long track tornadoes " possible just west of the river tomorrow afternoon and evening.  CIPS = May 2, 2008= Earle Arkansas F3
bring. Them....
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 25, 2017, 04:23:40 PM
OHX believes the greatest chance of severe weather in Middle TN will be Sunday's system, though the chance is also there this Thursday and Friday.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Eric on April 25, 2017, 04:33:54 PM
bring. Them....

(http://i65.tinypic.com/mvrx9t.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on April 25, 2017, 06:19:21 PM
Remember that one vividly...my first TOR.  Was with Ron that day.

And he had my camera I think
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Eric on April 25, 2017, 06:20:50 PM
And he had my camera I think

Yep.  We didnt know how to adjust the white balance and it showed in the video.  LOL.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: StormStalker on April 25, 2017, 06:56:41 PM
bring. Them....
Can't. Fish. In. Tornadoes. Or. Floods....
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: wfrogge on April 25, 2017, 09:46:02 PM
I know its not Tennessee but.... Loaded gun soundings for central and east Arkansas for tomorrow afternoon with too many updraft helicity streaks to count and CAPE in the 3.3k range. This could be a big day if storms can form in time. Will be making a mad dash west after 3:30 tomorrow afternoon. Will not have to go too far.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 25, 2017, 10:07:39 PM
I know its not Tennessee but.... Loaded gun soundings for central and east Arkansas for tomorrow afternoon with too many updraft helicity streaks to count and CAPE in the 3.3k range. This could be a big day if storms can form in time. Will be making a mad dash west after 3:30 tomorrow afternoon. Will not have to go too far.
noticed that... timing keeps moving tad quicker would mean earlier arrival time which would be better instability... going over some nam things... wouldnt be suprised see the enhanced sneak across the river into the edge of west tn... and also see a chance of small sliver of central ark, go moderate sometimes during updates... ::coffee::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: harlequin on April 25, 2017, 10:09:19 PM
MEG's AFD is advertising the potential for the most active weather period in a while.

Quote
Spring is back...and it isn`t happy. Several rounds of
potentially severe thunderstorms are expected over the next five
days. The first system will impact the area starting late Tomorrow
with additional rounds Friday, Saturday and Sunday. This forecast
discussion will focus primarily on the first round late tomorrow
into tomorrow night. Unfortunately much of the severe activity in
at least two of these is expected to occur during the overnight
hours.

Today...southerly winds have returned pumping deeper moisture back
across the Midsouth. Dew points this morning were in the upper 40s
to low 50s. By tomorrow morning dewpoints will be near 60 and
continue to climb through the day. Southerly winds may approach
Advisory criteria tomorrow...mainly in the Delta area South of
the Memphis Metro. Elsewhere speeds should be sustained 15-20 mph
with gusts up to 25 mph.

Synoptically...a deep trough will shift out of the Plains taking
on a negative tilt after 7pm as it approaches the Mississippi
River. A surface low will track from Central or West Arkansas into
Northeastern Missouri between Sunset and Midnight. This should be
our most dangerous window for severe thunderstorms. All modes of
severe weather are possible including tornadoes...even long track
tornadoes...damaging wind...and large hail. The top CIPS Analog
from May 3, 2008 resulted in 32 tornadoes including 9 long track
tornadoes 102 wind damage reports and 103 hail reports. Those
reports were over a much larger domain than just the
Midsouth...but much of it was centered over this
region...concentrated along the West of the Mississippi River.


Diffluence aloft...a moderately strong but favorably positioned 80-90kt
upper level trough, a 50kt LLJ and moderate lapse rates should be
sufficient to balance instability(outlined below) for a period of
severe thunderstorms late tomorrow evening into the overnight
hours.

Latest guidance is slightly faster than we were looking at
yesterday. That is a bit concerning as it will allow storms to
feed on afternoon diurnally enhanced instability.
However...parameters are not quite as robust as yesterday
featuring CAPE up to about 1700 J/kg and -6C LI`s. By midnight
those parameters should be cut in half. As a result...gradual
weakening is expected as storms approach West Tennessee and North
Mississippi. Discrete supercells are most likely early in the
event with storms evolving into a line as they approach the
Mississippi River. The tornado threat will diminish as the line
develops.

Conditions should improve after midnight and Thursday should be
mostly dry and 10 degrees or so cooler.

Temperatures Friday will rebound into the low to middle 80s and
another round of Severe weather is expected primarily during the
overnight as a warm front lifts to the North. Once again all
modes of severe weather are possible and the chance of flash
flooding will become enhanced due to rain accumulated Wednesday
night.
Storms Friday night into Saturday will be most numerous and
strongest along a warm front which is expected to lift into North
Arkansas and North Tennessee or South Kentucky.

Sunday additional Severe thunderstorms are expected. The Storm
Prediction Centers already includes much of the Midsouth along
and East of the Mississippi river in their day 6 outlook.


Heavy rain is expected tomorrow night through next weekend as
several storm systems impact the region. Flooding may become a
threat in association with the second round of storms Friday.
Localized flash flooding will be the initial concern with
increasing chances of widespread flooding then River flooding over
the weekend. Rainfall totals through the weekend are expected to
range from 4-7 inches though localized areas could see over 10
inches. The Highest totals are expected to fall across Northeast
Arkansas.


Stay weather aware this week folks.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: wfrogge on April 25, 2017, 10:34:29 PM
Dry air might keep this linear tomorrow. Just a thought.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 27, 2017, 09:05:16 AM
More water = saturated soils = decreased chances of seeing 100+ temps this summer.  I'll take more water.

After baking and burning last summer, I'd have to agree with this assessment.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on April 27, 2017, 02:29:43 PM
After baking and burning last summer, I'd have to agree with this assessment.
After the humidity we had last year in the west end , I'm not sure. The 115-120 heat index gets old quick
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on April 27, 2017, 04:18:31 PM
In case anyone is interested and hasn't been following, the 4/27/11 tornado outbreak thread on TW is being restored from archive, (since the original forum crashed a few months ago), one post at a time as it happened.  Six years ago at this very moment, things were really hair-raising in Alabama. You can read things as they happened, really pretty eerie:

http://www.talkweather.com/index.php?threads/severe-threat-april-26-27-2011.415/page-64

Latest two posts from that...

Quote
5 tornado emergencies now.

Quote
10-4 GONE TO SHELTER...PRAY EVERYONE...
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 27, 2017, 04:30:48 PM
After the humidity we had last year in the west end , I'm not sure. The 115-120 heat index gets old quick

Yes it does!  But I'll take hot and wet over hot and dry.  At least I don't have to spend time outdoors watering everything. ;) 

Also, in most "moist" summers, the wet ground and lush vegetation full of water tempers the heat quite a bit, as much of the sun's power is used up on evaporation rather than heating the ground and the air above it.  It makes for more humidity, yes, but it's hard to get extreme heat indexes when temperatures don't crack 90 too often--like in '09 and '13.   And as I learned last summer, you can have extreme heat and humidity and still not see a drop of rain.  It sucks to be above 90 degrees with a dewpoint above 70 and not even get a decent thunderstorm.    ::rant::

Post Merge: April 27, 2017, 05:21:57 PM
Speaking of wet weather--this is sure good to see!  The drought is all but dead in TN.   Only the far southeast corner, near Copperhill, remains in moderate drought (D1). 

(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20170425/20170425_tn_none.png)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: snowdog on April 28, 2017, 03:16:03 PM
Road trip to western Kansas/Eastern Co for a blizzard?  Simulated radar is amazing.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/858049931680133121 (https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/858049931680133121)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: skillsweather on April 29, 2017, 09:32:32 AM
The 6-10 day forecast is weird when you look at the HPC rainfall.
Oh and its going to be so cold later next week. 90 today and mid 60's by end of the week.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/
Btw I know most of the precip is falling before day 6 so its not included in this its just weird to see it showing below normal when that same area is getting nearly 10 inchs in the next few days.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 29, 2017, 10:20:24 AM
Despite being near 90 this afternoon, I’d have to see this Spring has been far better than last year, when rain systems seemed few and far between.  So far we’ve had no major severe weather outbreaks, but plenty of rain and storms to keep things interesting.   I, for one, am glad to see very little violent or destructive weather around these parts.  And even though this weekend will be unusually hot, it will be short lived as 70’s return this week, and even cooler weather by next weekend.   Like McDonald’s, I’m lovin’ it. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on April 29, 2017, 11:00:32 AM
Despite being near 90 this afternoon, I’d have to see this Spring has been far better than last year, when rain systems seemed few and far between.  So far we’ve had no major severe weather outbreaks, but plenty of rain and storms to keep things interesting.   I, for one, am glad to see very little violent or destructive weather around these parts.  And even though this weekend will be unusually hot, it will be short lived as 70’s return this week, and even cooler weather by next weekend.   Like McDonald’s, I’m lovin’ it.
its  called black berry winter... next weekend... after that... summer coming around the bend... with plenty heat humidity... looking forward to it... should be extra humid this summer with wetter soils... ;D
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on April 29, 2017, 01:17:56 PM
its  called black berry winter... next weekend... after that... summer coming around the bend... with plenty heat humidity... looking forward to it... should be extra humid this summer with wetter soils... ;D

Joe Bastardi disagrees.  He sees the coolest May since 2008 possibly happening as the NAO/Greenland blocking keeps a decent trough over the Eastern U.S through at least part of the month.  I'm not a big disciple of his, taking everything he says as gospel, but I know one thing--we've changed the pattern from last year.  We're much wetter here, and the surplus of soil moisture will play a part in the evolving pattern.   
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on April 30, 2017, 08:08:35 AM
We managed not to hit 90 yesterday. Topped out at 89, and that was enough to break the cap. We had a very strong thunderstorm move right over downtown. Caused a bit of wind damage. Wasn't warned at the time either.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: StormNine on April 30, 2017, 08:16:40 AM
We have traditional 5% tornado, 15% hail/wind threat. I wonder if the more severe storms moving across MS could negatively impact our threat further north.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: wfrogge on April 30, 2017, 08:31:43 PM
Mississippi river is on the rise just in time for Memphis in May activities on the river bank. Wonder if it will threaten the events......
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 01, 2017, 03:29:22 PM
Mississippi river is on the rise just in time for Memphis in May activities on the river bank. Wonder if it will threaten the events......

It's only suppose to get about a half foot over flood stage.  Everything should be fine barring another widespread rain event which isn't currently forecasted.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on May 01, 2017, 04:21:28 PM
From NWS Goodland KS..

Quote
A significant spring Blizzard struck the High Plains this weekend, April 29-30, 2017. This two day event began with light snow Saturday across portions of northwest Kansas. The approaching system produced accumulating snow on Saturday mainly in portions of western and southwestern Kansas, and eastern Colorado. Snowfall extended northward also; however, areas that received one inch or less generally experienced melting due to very warm surface temperatures. Generally around four inches of snow fell by Saturday morning across Wichita and Greeley counties in northwest Kansas and in eastern Cheyenne and southeastern Kit Carson counties in Colorado. Light snow continued into the overnight hours and into Sunday before picking up in intensity and coverage as the main storm system approached the region. Heavy snow and high winds produced very low visibility on Sunday along a Tribune, KS to Oakley, KS to McCook, NE line. This band of blizzard conditions was about 100 miles across and impacted nearly all roadways east of the Colorado border to Wakeeney, KS with many roads being officially closed. Power outages were numerous as power poles snapped under the weight of heavy snow and the force of high winds upwards of 60 mph. Vehicle slide offs were common as reductions in visibility combined with slick roadways caused drivers to lose control of their vehicles. The National Guard was called into action; however, they were forced to restrict rescues to medical emergencies only due to several of their vehicles becoming stuck as well due to extreme driving conditions.

Blizzard conditions were associated with a band of heavy snow with convective qualities that sometimes produced relatively large graupel, thunder and lightning, which was confirmed by spotters in Atwood, KS. Moisture levels were very high which led to very large snowfall totals up to 28 inches just south of Wallace in Wallace county despite low snow to liquid ratios. Winds were gusting to near or just above 60 mph in the heavier snow bands with wind gusts of near 50 mph elsewhere. Baseline winds were out of the north at a sustained 35 to 45 mph. Drifting snow was common in the spotter reports with drifts of eight to ten feet reported in Wallace, KS and widespread reports of drifts in the three to four foot range within the convective band.

The convective deformation band started out about 100 miles across and gradually narrowed as the day progressed. As the band narrowed, it also moved north along with the upper level support provided by the occluded low pressure system. This narrowing of the deformation banding effectively ended snowfall along both the western and southeastern flank of the snow band, all the while slowly moving east by northeast.


This probably was the biggest event snow wise for this winter...in late April
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: harlequin on May 01, 2017, 06:12:19 PM
(http://www.weather.gov/images/gld/April%2029-30%20Blizzard/StormTotalSnow.PNG)

To put that gradient into perspective, the distance between Stratton, CO and Hays, KS is 178 miles. The distance between Memphis and Nashville is 197 miles. It's conceivable if you superimposed that over us that parts of Nash and Memphis would have gotten no snow while Jackson, TN got 20-30".

Post Merge: May 01, 2017, 06:42:42 PM
It's only suppose to get about a half foot over flood stage.  Everything should be fine barring another widespread rain event which isn't currently forecasted.

Yeah, the MS should be fine. Not the same situation in AR, though. Some rivers will be topping 2011. The Black River at Pocahontas is forecast to be 1 foot over its record crest in 2011 by mid-week. Evacuations have begun.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 01, 2017, 08:13:33 PM
Latest system only dropped .10 of rain here, but the winds today have been intense.  Lost power at the homestead during the early afternoon hours due to trees falling on power lines.  Since sunset, winds are becoming more tame, but I can still hear the woods behind the house roaring with the occasional wind gust. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: bigdog660 on May 02, 2017, 12:50:03 AM
I received 8.95" total for April. 8)

Yesterday, I only picked up 0.22" precip, but had a couple of wind gusts of 32 MPH.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on May 02, 2017, 05:47:46 AM
Latest system only dropped .10 of rain here, but the winds today have been intense.  Lost power at the homestead during the early afternoon hours due to trees falling on power lines.  Since sunset, winds are becoming more tame, but I can still hear the woods behind the house roaring with the occasional wind gust.

Thankfully we didn't take much damage in the valley but the wind roared almost continuously for most of the day yesterday and I've got a good bit to pick up in the yard today.  So far this season it seems like things are staying alive for long stretches; first the big rain event where we saw continuous heavy rain and lightning for long periods and yesterday's long-lived wind event.  I'll be curious to see if this proves to be a trend throughout the season.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: memphishogfan on May 02, 2017, 06:10:37 AM
Things are not going to get any better across northern arkansas/ SoMo over the next few days. Another 1-3 inches through Thursday.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 02, 2017, 08:22:44 AM
Thankfully we didn't take much damage in the valley but the wind roared almost continuously for most of the day yesterday and I've got a good bit to pick up in the yard today.  So far this season it seems like things are staying alive for long stretches; first the big rain event where we saw continuous heavy rain and lightning for long periods and yesterday's long-lived wind event.  I'll be curious to see if this proves to be a trend throughout the season.

Looks like another breezy day today, especially in northeast areas near Tri-Cities.  Another wind advisory has been hoisted for that area. 

I heard on local news this morning that TYS had a peak wind gust of 54 mph yesterday.   Bad day for toupees. 
   
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 02, 2017, 08:35:11 AM
Things are not going to get any better across northern arkansas/ SoMo over the next few days. Another 1-3 inches through Thursday.
Pocahontas Ark is being evacuated. Water coming over levy in about a hour.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 02, 2017, 08:52:09 AM
What a big change in the pattern coming by mid-week.  Much cooler by week’s end, with highs in the upper 50’s and showers here.  And it looks like the below normal temps will hang around for awhile, as the mean trough sets up over the northeast U.S. keeping us in a cool, dry northwest flow after the next storm system passes by.  Perhaps, that will let the water logged areas of western TN dry out some.   Below normal temps and precipitation being forecast for the 6-10 day period(after the next rain system).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/interactive/index.php (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/interactive/index.php)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 02, 2017, 11:44:23 AM
Upper 50s and showers here Thursday. Looks like perfect weather for the weekend.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 02, 2017, 02:29:26 PM
I was about to help my parents in KY get their garden in the ground this weekend, but now I think we might need to wait another week or two.  Frost is a good possibility up there next week as this deep trough hangs around the eastern U.S.  I'd say even parts of Tennessee could see a late season frost.   After a record warm April, the turn of the calendar to May brings the complete opposite.  I'm not complaining--not after 90's last weekend.   

(http://kyweathercenter.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/GFS.gif)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 02, 2017, 04:42:16 PM
(http://www.weather.gov/images/gld/April%2029-30%20Blizzard/StormTotalSnow.PNG)

To put that gradient into perspective, the distance between Stratton, CO and Hays, KS is 178 miles. The distance between Memphis and Nashville is 197 miles. It's conceivable if you superimposed that over us that parts of Nash and Memphis would have gotten no snow while Jackson, TN got 20-30".

Post Merge: May 01, 2017, 06:42:42 PM
Yeah, the MS should be fine. Not the same situation in AR, though. Some rivers will be topping 2011. The Black River at Pocahontas is forecast to be 1 foot over its record crest in 2011 by mid-week. Evacuations have begun.

I wonder if I-40 will end up closed again.  In 2011 I went on a trip to Jasper, AR to visit the Buffalo river.  Both getting there and coming back was full of detours because of flooding.  I-40 was closed on the way back and we had to take a 40 mile detour south, and even then just beat the crest of the White River.

Anyone interested in a flood chase?  It is quite a site to see if its at and beyond 2011 levels!
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 02, 2017, 06:42:41 PM
Per MRX:

Quote
After the cold front passes Thursday night much colder air will rush
into the area, with enough moisture for precipitation through
Saturday night and possibly some light, wet snow at times in the
higher elevations--mainly Friday night through Saturday night.  At
this time, looks too warm for measurable snow, but will keep
watching. After this area clears out it will be turning drier, but
the eastern trough looks like it will be slow to move out, so we
will stay with below average temps through the end of the forecast
next Tuesday.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: memphishogfan on May 02, 2017, 10:35:43 PM
It appears one of the new levees out in place on the Black River in Arkansas has failed.  Water has stopped rising at Pocahontas but now all that water is headed south towards Walnut Ridge.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 03, 2017, 06:56:09 AM
Next system seems to be another wind machine.  High Wind Watch, and Wind Advisories already going up for the mountains and even valley locations in East TN.  Long duration wind event will probably keep local utilities busy yet again with power outages starting tomorrow. This weather is more like March than May.   

Post Merge: May 03, 2017, 07:07:54 AM
From MRX this morning. . .

Quote
The focus will then shift to the much cooler temperatures forecast
late in the week and over the weekend. The cold front will race to
the east Thursday night into Friday morning as strong cold air
advection, for early May, wraps around the system. The closed low
will be directly overhead on Friday. For the forecast, expect
numerous light showers across the region and widespread cloud cover.
Some raw model guidance indicates that highs will not make it to 50.
For now, have not gone that cold but did bump down highs by 2-3
degrees from the previous forecast. The column will be cold enough
for some snow showers late Friday night into early Saturday morning
for locations above 4500-5000 feet.
No accumulations are expected at
this time. The upper level low will begin to lift out on Saturday.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on May 03, 2017, 07:20:29 AM
The way things are looking for Friday I may get one last fire in the wood stove.
 ::cold::
I'm also hoping I don't have any serious tree damage from all this wind; days and days of it have to take a toll on things.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 03, 2017, 08:14:29 AM
The way things are looking for Friday I may get one last fire in the wood stove.
 ::cold::
I'm also hoping I don't have any serious tree damage from all this wind; days and days of it have to take a toll on things.

Agreed.  Long duration wind events that last for days can do as much damage as a severe thunderstorm.  I have debris all over my yard from the last one, so I hope this next one isn't as rough. At least the ground isn't as saturated as last week.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Coach B on May 03, 2017, 08:43:38 AM
The way things are looking for Friday I may get one last fire in the wood stove.
 ::cold::
Told my family the same thing last night. I need to get a little wood around to the back porch today before the rain sets in. Even with the warm April I've only had to turn on the downstairs AC one time.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: harlequin on May 03, 2017, 09:26:16 AM
Levee officially failed.

Quote
...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR EAST POCAHONTAS!...

The National Weather Service in Memphis has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  A Levee Failure in...
  Southeastern Randolph County in eastern Arkansas...
  Central Lawrence County in eastern Arkansas...

* Until 645 AM CDT Thursday

* At 828 AM CDT, emergency manager reported a levee on the Black
  River at Pocahontas failed causing flash flooding of immediately
  surrounding areas.

  This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for East Pocahontas!. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND NOW!

* Locations impacted include...
  Pocahontas, Walnut Ridge, Hoxie, Black Rock, College City, Portia,
  O`kean, Powhatan, Giles Spur, Shannon, Dicus, Fender, Elnora,
  Manson and Lesterville.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Crockett on May 03, 2017, 11:32:45 AM
Not expecting to get out of the upper 40s here Friday with lots of rain...then mid 50s with gusting north winds on Saturday. Lovely weather.

We set a record high last weekend, looking at the potential for record lows this weekend. Gotta love Tennessee weather, I guess.  ;D
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: OBstorm89 on May 03, 2017, 08:23:53 PM
Not sure what to say about the behavior of the rain around the immediate Memphis metro today. Very strange
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 04, 2017, 04:33:34 AM
The huge storm complex along the Gulf has cut off most of the moisture with this first batch of rain.  Just drizzle moving into East TN this morning.

Post Merge: May 04, 2017, 07:20:23 AM
Strong southerly winds creating a mountain wave event this morning in the Smokies.  The last time I saw a radar like this was when the fires were happening, and it was picking up the smoke plumes.  Not sure what the radar is seeing, but hopefully it's not smoke this time. 

(https://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/MRX_loop.gif)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Mister2011 on May 04, 2017, 01:19:27 PM
Lots of trees down in Knoxville and Sevierville. People are trapped on the spur between Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge due to trees/power lines. Large brush fire out of control in Pitman Center, 30+ acres and growing rapidly...

Post Merge: May 04, 2017, 01:23:30 PM
Jayce, just noticed your post.... I was in Gatlinburg the day it burned  and I am involved in the burned out structure inspections, so this is really shaking my crew up
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 04, 2017, 04:42:37 PM
Lots of trees down in Knoxville and Sevierville. People are trapped on the spur between Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge due to trees/power lines. Large brush fire out of control in Pitman Center, 30+ acres and growing rapidly...

Post Merge: May 04, 2017, 01:23:30 PM
Jayce, just noticed your post.... I was in Gatlinburg the day it burned  and I am involved in the burned out structure inspections, so this is really shaking my crew up

Just heard that the fire up there is only 10% contained.  Hopefully, the rain will finally move in this evening and help put this out.  Downsloping has kept the rain at bay most of the day.  I'm sure after what happened in November, everyone's nerves are on edge with another fire spreading in the area.   Hope you all stay safe.

Strangely enough, even though I'm very close to the foothills, I only have a decent breeze blowing occasionally.  This whole mountain wave weather is very interesting, as only about 10 miles from my house the wind was howling earlier today.  I would like to know why that is. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 05, 2017, 06:41:03 AM
Is this December, or may? >:D
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on May 05, 2017, 07:20:51 AM
Is this December, or may? >:D
Well, it was warm and we had a heavy thunderstorm roll through a little after 10 PM last night, but today it's gray, ugly, and in the 50s.  I'd say it's definitely December, this is what the last two periods around Christmas have been like!
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: mempho on May 05, 2017, 07:37:56 AM
Not sure what to say about the behavior of the rain around the immediate Memphis metro today. Very strange
What do you mean?

Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: mempho on May 05, 2017, 07:40:48 AM
Is this December, or may? >:D
I'm loving this weather.  Too bad we couldn't get a ULL with a deformation axis to park over us this winter but I'll take it.

We seem to finally be paying for all the warmth.  Cold air from up north has to break off eventually. 

Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 05, 2017, 01:15:49 PM
TN finally drought free. 

(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20170502/20170502_tn_none.png)

Post Merge: May 05, 2017, 01:21:05 PM
I'm loving this weather.  Too bad we couldn't get a ULL with a deformation axis to park over us this winter but I'll take it.

We seem to finally be paying for all the warmth.  Cold air from up north has to break off eventually. 

Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk

I wouldn't mind it staying this way through the balance of May.  90's will be here again too soon for me.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 05, 2017, 10:35:37 PM
Not sure what to say about the behavior of the rain around the immediate Memphis metro today. Very strange

Just some backside precip from a strong upper low.  It can move strangely versus what we typically see. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JHart on May 06, 2017, 08:42:15 AM
The temperature dropped to 37.5F out here last night... a bit colder than expected.   ::cold::

It is good to see the sun again this morning.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: OBstorm89 on May 06, 2017, 10:53:26 AM
Just some backside precip from a strong upper low.  It can move strangely versus what we typically see.

I was reffering to what looked like dry air issues and an energy transfer to the south on Wednesday.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 06, 2017, 01:57:48 PM
I was reffering to what looked like dry air issues and an energy transfer to the south on Wednesday.

That's a good assessment.  At the time, there was a very large complex of storms along the Gulf of Mexico.  That robbed the moisture transport further north into Tennessee, and what rain was here "dried up."  It also happened here in East Tennessee (along with downsloping) that made for a dry day, despite a huge upper low almost right over us.  It's a good example that even a strong low pressure can't make it rain without a good moisture source.  That's how deserts form.  In fact, without the water in the Gulf, much of the southeast United States would be a desert, similar to Arizona and New Mexico. 

Post Merge: May 06, 2017, 02:27:30 PM
Very cool weather (pun intended) for May:

Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
323 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Tomorrow)...

Will include a pre-first period in the forecast for late afternoon
adjustments. It looks like any thunderstorm chances should be
limited to only the Southern Valley. Took thunder out of forecast
for Central Valley as well as adjusted temperatures. It`s been a
crazy weather day. At the current hour it`s 73 at Chattanooga and
only 45 at Knoxville and it`s still snowing on Mt. LeConte.

I have to admit, it feels so strange to have everything green and bloomed out here, and I could see snow on the Smokies today.  I haven't see that this late in the year before. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Nashville_Wx on May 06, 2017, 06:56:53 PM
Leconte at 6"+ with drifts....That is all.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: WXHD on May 09, 2017, 07:51:15 PM
'Twas an exceptionally beautiful day here.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on May 11, 2017, 05:38:06 AM
North of I-40 is in a slight risk for Day 1... for what it's worth given SPC's track record so far this spring. ;)

It looks wet tonight and tomorrow in any case.


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on May 11, 2017, 08:13:29 PM
It's quiet here. Pretty good rain and storms in progress in W TN, with some warnings.


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 11, 2017, 08:18:35 PM
Flash Flood Watch for NW TN. With the slow moving boundary and heavy rainfall rates there is some decent flash flood potential in NW TN overnight. Some of the storms could produce 1-2 inch per hour rates.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Clay on May 11, 2017, 11:09:39 PM
Wow at the rainfall rates in Robertson and Sumner co. Radar estimates up to 2"/hr rates near Springfield and Hendersonville, totaling more than 4" in spots and counting.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: bugalou on May 13, 2017, 01:13:06 PM
Any one want to take a stab on our first widespread 90s day?  Looks like we will be getting close later this week on the west end of the state.  With 90s comes the start of the summer - here is to hoping for lots of MCS activity.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Nashville_Wx on May 13, 2017, 04:54:12 PM
I dont want to think about 90's . I am heading to ski for a week in the sierras, still snowing with a 200" snowpack... That being said, for my gardens sake, I hope for dry conditions with weekly 1-2 days of rain. Give me the heat, and take the humidity.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 15, 2017, 08:07:13 AM
well  guess its time to close the books on active interesting weather around the mid south till mid fall suppose...  n the mean time... enjoy the summer, i know i will cause the weather going be on  ::sleeping:: control for a while...
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on May 16, 2017, 06:40:13 AM
And we've got our first air quality alert day of the year. Welcome back hot air, high pressure, and no wind!  ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: bigdog660 on May 16, 2017, 10:45:38 AM
Word going around is next week go back to a cooler, weter pattern.

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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Curt on May 16, 2017, 05:53:47 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170516/870509feb144ba2cf09719c3118dbb1c.png)

I like it. 90 plus will be arrive soon enough. Please keep June cool before July arrives.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on May 17, 2017, 09:44:32 PM
Let's play... "find the dryline"...

(https://satelliteliaisonblog.files.wordpress.com/2017/05/20170516_irswd2_anno.gif)


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 18, 2017, 02:32:35 AM
Here we go.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DAFzlVWXUAErhsD.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: BRUCE on May 18, 2017, 04:18:50 AM
Here we go.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DAFzlVWXUAErhsD.jpg)
go  figure.... :)
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on May 18, 2017, 10:29:10 AM
http://www.wsmv.com/story/35452679/tornado-becomes-perfect-backdrop-for-proposal




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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 18, 2017, 07:15:16 PM
Today will not go down as a bust but the early storm formation and storm motions look to have really kept the strong to violent tornado threat down. It also helped that the strongest storms of the day stayed in pretty rural areas.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Eric on May 19, 2017, 08:57:53 AM
The cap eroded quicker than modeled and allowed crapvection to overspread the risk area.  Several flying eagle supes were present before things went sideways.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on May 20, 2017, 09:09:31 AM
Slight risk runs through Middle TN today.


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 20, 2017, 01:40:10 PM
Let's play... "find the dryline"...

(https://satelliteliaisonblog.files.wordpress.com/2017/05/20170516_irswd2_anno.gif)


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Very cool.  You can actually see the dry line moving westward at one point, until the front pushes it back east.

I had about a half inch of rain in robust thunderstorms last night.  Vivid lightning and loud thunder woke me up in the middle of the night.  Heavier rain, over an inch, fell just to my east. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: skillsweather on May 20, 2017, 01:55:33 PM
The same areas that picked up 5 inchs of rain from storms the other day is getting lucky with being hit by random pop up storms before the main storms get here.

Well it seems this weekend is going to be a bust on the rain side for what the models showed. Unless theres more to come but I dont see nothing else out there. Sigh
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 22, 2017, 09:32:03 PM
Our recent heat sure didn't last long.  The frequent cool, rainy weather we're having is starting to remind me of the summer of 2013.  I'll take it. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Crockett on May 22, 2017, 09:52:55 PM
Our recent heat sure didn't last long.  The frequent cool, rainy weather we're having is starting to remind me of the summer of 2013.  I'll take it.

It's shaping up to be a 2008 redux, which absolutely sucks. For the life of me I'll never understand why you people like rainy weather.  >:D The good news is GFS consistently showing truly scorching temps around June 4-6, even if they will be short-lived.  ;D
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 23, 2017, 05:48:36 AM
It's shaping up to be a 2008 redux, which absolutely sucks. For the life of me I'll never understand why you people like rainy weather.  >:D The good news is GFS consistently showing truly scorching temps around June 4-6, even if they will be short-lived.  ;D

One--I've only used the air conditioner a handful of times this year (mainly last week), and I love the extremely low utility bill. 

Two--Rain/storms = weather.  Endless sun and heat like last year = boring.  ::sleeping::  If I enjoyed that kind of weather, I'd move to California.     ;D  Now, in all honesty, I would prefer more summer-like weather with a good mixture of sun and daily afternoon storms.  The dreary, cloudy weather with light rain isn't something I enjoy every day.  Give me a summer like 2009. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: StormNine on May 23, 2017, 07:20:57 AM
The latest GFS runs show quite a bit of rain Saturday night into Sunday morning across Western and portions of Middle Tennessee from what I assume would be an MCS. We are heading into the season for slow moving MCS events with at least localized flooding potential so that is something to watch.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on May 24, 2017, 08:16:36 AM
5% hatched area for all of east TN today on the Day 1. This definitely caught me by surprise.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: dwagner88 on May 24, 2017, 10:03:21 AM
I think we've just had a unwarned tornado in southern Bradley county/ northern Murray county GA. Lots of damage reports coming in. There is another warned storm now further south in Gordon county, but I don't think the storm near the TN border was warned.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: bluegrasspr on May 24, 2017, 11:06:39 AM
We've had strong wind and storms this morning in Knoxville, but the local mets says that the worst is to come this afternoon. Is that right?
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: skillsweather on May 24, 2017, 11:36:54 AM
The storm that just passed me has smaller then pea size hail but it had huge winds. At least near warning level (no idea why their isn't a warning with it.) And the heavyest wind driven rain I have seen in a long time... Heres a picture of the radar I got just now. Im in far North east Wilson county (aka Lebanon).
Nevermind they just issued the warning but its over for me now lol. But it was definitely worthy of one at least super borderline anyways.
Oh btw the wind came in from the north at first then (super weak) then it switched from the south west hard and back from the west by the end of it. (strong storms usually do that here anyways) Just noting it for whoever cares lol.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on May 24, 2017, 12:06:20 PM
TOR Watch coming soon for parts of middle and eastern TN. We are sunny here in Chatt currently!

[url]http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0828.html/url]
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: skillsweather on May 24, 2017, 12:17:04 PM
TOR Watch coming soon for parts of middle and eastern TN. We are sunny here in Chatt currently!

[url]http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0828.html/url]
So I guess that storm that passed me was a supercell. They are the experts and are calling it that. Maybe that wind change as it passed was beginning of a weak rotation? Hmm. If you watch that storm develop and strengthen as it pass's far north eastern Wilson county you can see the swirling motion of the storm as a whole and if you watch velocity you can see red and green together as well. Didn't expect it today it actually woke me up when it was near from the loud cloud to ground lightning back to back.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: cgauxknox on May 24, 2017, 02:51:49 PM
We've had strong wind and storms this morning in Knoxville, but the local mets says that the worst is to come this afternoon. Is that right?
The discussion I'm hearing locally this afternoon is that we're due for some potentially strong or severe storms in Knoxville.  The talk early this morning was that if we got good sun in between fronts that heated things up we would have a better chance of severe weather and we've had blue skies and bright sunlight for better than an hour in west Knox.  The wind and the look of the clouds *feels* right for severe weather.  Time will tell.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: mamMATTus on May 24, 2017, 03:35:01 PM
Honestly that watch is going to be a huge bust. There is absolutely nothing going on at the moment.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: joemomma on May 24, 2017, 03:38:18 PM
My forecast still says strong storms for this afternoon....am I missing something?
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: JayCee on May 24, 2017, 05:06:46 PM
Unless something else develops later, I think tonight's severe risk isn't happening.   It's a beautiful evening, but with gusty winds.  All my windows are open, and the air feels too stable (dry/cool) for any intense storms. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: NashRugger on May 24, 2017, 07:35:49 PM
I've seen two separate videos taking from BNA's cell waiting lot of a potentially very weak, brief tornado just east of the airport earlier this afternoon.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: skillsweather on May 24, 2017, 09:39:09 PM
I've seen two separate videos taking from BNA's cell waiting lot of a potentially very weak, brief tornado just east of the airport earlier this afternoon.
I wonder if it was the supercell that passed over me in wilson county. No warning until it passed but it  was a strong storm for sure.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: NashRugger on May 25, 2017, 09:39:02 AM
I wonder if it was the supercell that passed over me in wilson county. No warning until it passed but it  was a strong storm for sure.
It was not and that severe storm yesterday was NOT a supercell.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Eric on May 25, 2017, 10:28:57 AM
I've seen two separate videos taking from BNA's cell waiting lot of a potentially very weak, brief tornado just east of the airport earlier this afternoon.

OHX did a radar analysis and found verryyyy little evidence of a tornado.  There was one pixel that was "interesting".  It was more like a gustnado.  Pretty neat, though.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: skillsweather on May 25, 2017, 10:59:07 AM
It was not and that severe storm yesterday was NOT a supercell.
This person from the SPC said it was thats the only reason I called it that. I didnt think it was until I read that post. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0828.html
Quote
DISCUSSION...Convection has increased over Middle Tennessee in the
   past hour or so, with one supercell exhibiting increasing rotation
   and attendant hail/wind/tornado threat over Trousdale and Smith
   Counties.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: CT_Yankee on May 25, 2017, 11:24:47 AM
This person from the SPC said it was thats the only reason I called it that. I didnt think it was until I read that post. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0828.html

I was watching that cell and it sure looked like a supercell to me. 
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: NashRugger on May 25, 2017, 11:25:45 AM
Meh, I call it marginal at best because it just didn't exhibit strong characteristics I'd consider for supercell designation. The storm actually cycled out by the time it hit the KY border.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: skillsweather on May 25, 2017, 11:32:07 AM
Meh, I call it marginal at best because it just didn't exhibit strong characteristics I'd consider for supercell designation. The storm actually cycled out by the time it hit the KY border.
Yeah it went from nothing to a pretty decent storm right over me then it fell apart after that and ever storm that way was just a rain storm for the most part. The watch was crazy but that storm I guess had them worried others would blow up like it did.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: CT_Yankee on May 25, 2017, 03:56:21 PM
Quote
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Nashville, TN
121 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

...NWS Damage Survey for May 24, 2017 Tornado Event #1...

.Tornado # 1...

Rating:                   EF-0
Estimated Peak Wind:      75-80 MPH
Path length /Statute/:    2.1 Miles
Path width /Maximum/:     75 Yards
Fatalities:               0
Injuries:                 0

Start date:               May 24, 2017
Start time:               1134 AM
Start location:           11 Miles NE of Lebanon
Start Lat/Lon:            36.2815/-86.1187

End date:                 May 24, 2017
End time:                 1138 AM
End location:             13 Miles NE of Lebanon
End_lat/lon:              36.3083/-86.1003

Survey Summary:
A weak EF-0 Tornado touched down in far western Smith County just across the
Wilson/Smith County line.  Damage was mostly confined to dozens of trees
snapped or uprooted along the 2 mile path.  Two barns were uplifted and destroyed
off of Hiwasee Road in western Smith County. 

EF Scale:  The Enhanced Fujita Scale Classifies Tornadoes into
the following categories.

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 MPH
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 MPH
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 MPH
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 MPH
EF4...Violent...166 To 200 MPH
EF5...Violent...>200 MPH

Note:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS
Storm Data.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: skillsweather on May 26, 2017, 03:20:37 AM
Look at the bottom 3 pictures from the "tornado". None of the trees have leaves on them? That picture doesn't seem legit.. I mean the top one all the trees are green but the 3 bottom no leaves at all on no tree just seems like a winter time picture not one taken a few days ago.

http://www.weather.gov/ohx/20170524
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on May 26, 2017, 06:37:02 AM
Look at the bottom 3 pictures from the "tornado". None of the trees have leaves on them? That picture doesn't seem legit.. I mean the top one all the trees are green but the 3 bottom no leaves at all on no tree just seems like a winter time picture not one taken a few days ago.

http://www.weather.gov/ohx/20170524

?

The three photos from the EF0 Smith County Tornado? They look green and trees fully leafed to me. I'm not sure what you're looking at.


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Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: skillsweather on May 26, 2017, 06:38:27 AM
?

The three photos from the EF0 Smith County Tornado? They look green and trees fully leafed to me. I'm not sure what you're looking at.


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Your right now. But earlier it wasn't i should of took a screen shot I guess. They either fixed it or something but them are not the 3 pics they had.
Also they had a picture of a down draft in Nashville and tornado in Hohenwald. So i guess they might of uploaded an older storm picture? Idk. Either way its fixed now.

After some digging i found 1 of the pics they had. It was from this tornado back in March.
http://wkrn.com/2017/03/28/nws-confirms-ef-1-tornado-in-lewis-county/

Here is the actual NWS link this minus the first picture was what was shown before they fixed it.
https://www.weather.gov/ohx/20170327
It has the 3 bottom pictures i was talking about and the 2 storm radars that i mentioned as well.
Title: Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
Post by: Thundersnow on May 26, 2017, 07:03:53 AM
http://www.weather.gov/ohx/active2017fortornadoes


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