Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Severe Weather => Topic started by: Thundersnow on May 30, 2017, 02:53:59 PM

Title: Summer 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on May 30, 2017, 02:53:59 PM
I didn't see a thread yet. Memorial Day is commonly called the "unofficial" start of Summer. June 1st (in two days) is the start of meteorological summer, even if the solstice is still three weeks out. So, we'll go ahead and start it here.

By the way, there are some fairly healthy looking thunderstorm cells firing this afternoon, seemingly along a boundary draped across the state. They're widely scattered, but look to be dropping some downpours.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: joemomma on May 30, 2017, 02:59:19 PM
It just blew up in eastern Putnam County.  Pea-sized hail coming down for the past 10 minutes or so, enough to start accumulating.  Not a lot of lightning or thunder.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: skillsweather on May 30, 2017, 03:08:50 PM
South Wilson county keeps getting hit by storm after storm they keep firing to my south and going just south of me over and over.. constant thunder dark clouds no rain. over 2.5inchs south of me though. We did get 1 downpour earlier but it didnt last long.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Crockett on May 30, 2017, 03:10:55 PM
Sure am glad to see more rain today. We certainly needed it.  ::)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: bigdog660 on May 30, 2017, 05:00:22 PM
0.17" from the 1st round of thunderstorms. Storms were mild. A 2nd round is about to move in. Looks to be a little stronger line. NWS has issued a significant weather advisory for my area.

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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: cgauxknox on May 30, 2017, 05:02:48 PM
We're under a significant weather advisory here in West Knoxville with a nasty cell inbound after some torrential rain about an hour ago.  It's turning into a more lively afternoon than I expected  ::drowning::
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on May 31, 2017, 08:52:43 AM
I'm laid up today after a minor surgery, and its awesome to have all the windows open and feeling cool air drift in them, and on the last day of May no less!

Maybe I'm going out on a limb here, but with more cool air forecast for next week, I'm cliff jumping---it's SUMMER CANCEL folks!!  I've lost all hope for any substantial heat waves or endless sunny days above 90 that lead to drought.  I'm giving up on summer 2017!!   ::cliff::

We do it in December, why not May?  ;D
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: skillsweather on May 31, 2017, 09:16:12 AM
I'm laid up today after a minor surgery, and its awesome to have all the windows open and feeling cool air drift in them, and on the last day of May no less!

Maybe I'm going out on a limb here, but with more cool air forecast for next week, I'm cliff jumping---it's SUMMER CANCEL folks!!  I've lost all hope for any substantial heat waves or endless sunny days above 90 that lead to drought.  I'm giving up on summer 2017!!   ::cliff::

We do it in December, why not May?  ;D
That everything changed when the fire nation attacked.  ::blowtorch::
But yeah seriously doubt we will have any long streak heat waves this summer. And no droughts either. It might get dryer later but not really drought worthy. The whole south has got lots of high soil moisture for this time of year and next week we are looking at highs in the upper 70s in early June. With average rainfall expected.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on May 31, 2017, 10:20:32 AM
0.17" from the 1st round of thunderstorms. Storms were mild. A 2nd round is about to move in. Looks to be a little stronger line. NWS has issued a significant weather advisory for my area.

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We had a whopping .03 over here.  Storms died soon after crossing the Knox/Sevier Co border. 
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: bigdog660 on May 31, 2017, 09:19:26 PM
We had a whopping .03 over here.  Storms died soon after crossing the Knox/Sevier Co border.
Yeah, we only received another 0.05" from the 2nd line. Might of thundered once or twice.

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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on May 31, 2017, 09:27:41 PM
Upper 70s for highs in June. That's what I'm talking about.  To lazy to look but seems like it was 120 last year at this time.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: harlequin on May 31, 2017, 10:49:07 PM
Upper 70s for highs in June. That's what I'm talking about.  To lazy to look but seems like it was 120 last year at this time.

KMEM peaked with a HI of 119 on June 17. IIRC, though, y'all up near KY/MO were higher, and had other extreme days as DPs pooled more there.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 01, 2017, 01:31:41 PM
Upper 70s for highs in June. That's what I'm talking about.  To lazy to look but seems like it was 120 last year at this time.

Nothing to complain about here.  Plenty of rain, no extreme heat--and actually not even a normal brand of heat for summer yet.   
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: skillsweather on June 01, 2017, 06:23:20 PM
Two outflows are about to hit in Wilson county. Hopefully they will fire some rain for me. One to the north one to the south are about to clash.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: mempho on June 04, 2017, 01:26:30 PM
For Memphis - The average first occurrence of 90F is May 24.  We are now 11 days beyond that and, if the forecast holds, we will make it to 18 days beyond normal. 

However, we have quite a ways to go to break the latest first occurrence-  July 5th 😲-  back in 1907!

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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on June 05, 2017, 10:47:17 AM



http://www.wsmv.com/story/35586674/canadian-man-mows-lawn-with-tornado-behind-him?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=meredithHub


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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 05, 2017, 11:43:54 AM
Check out the radar. Easy to see the stalled out boundary over this way. There is zero movement. Flash floods are becoming an issue especially in Arkansas.

Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: WXHD on June 05, 2017, 12:39:59 PM
Check out the radar. Easy to see the stalled out boundary over this way. There is zero movement. Flash floods are becoming an issue especially in Arkansas.

Yep. I've been watching that cell over batesville,ar for hours.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Curt on June 07, 2017, 08:23:30 AM
KMEM finally hit 90 yesterday to mark the first. After the cool down of the next few days, looks like 90-low 90's becomes the rule. The doldrums of summer are here for the next 90 days.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Clay on June 07, 2017, 08:17:17 PM
KMEM finally hit 90 yesterday to mark the first. After the cool down of the next few days, looks like 90-low 90's becomes the rule. The doldrums of summer are here for the next 90 days.
GFS keeps breaking down that ridge past 7 days. Perhaps we can delay the inevitable a hair longer.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: snowdog on June 07, 2017, 09:37:11 PM
If I could get today's weather on repeat throughout summer...
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Eric on June 08, 2017, 08:30:35 AM
If I could get today's weather on repeat throughout summer...

This would render my pool useless.  Disagree.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: BRUCE on June 08, 2017, 08:45:52 AM
KMEM finally hit 90 yesterday to mark the first. After the cool down of the next few days, looks like 90-low 90's becomes the rule. The doldrums of summer are here for the next 90 days.
yeah  it's about time... I want to enjoy my pool.....
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 08, 2017, 12:11:52 PM
How about a compromise ?  I would take a couple days like this every week to ten days all summer.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Crockett on June 08, 2017, 03:26:58 PM
This would render my pool useless.  Disagree.

Finally a voice of reason up in here.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Eric on June 08, 2017, 03:31:11 PM
Finally a voice of reason up in here.

D@mn straight.  #PoolLife
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Nashville_Wx on June 08, 2017, 04:04:59 PM
Today was plenty warm to swim. Nice cool water instead of bath water past July. Best day till fall.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Charles L. on June 08, 2017, 05:58:03 PM
I want snow.
Title: Summer 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on June 08, 2017, 07:18:16 PM
For now, it's hockey weather.

Go Preds!


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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: snowdog on June 08, 2017, 08:52:56 PM
This would render my pool useless.  Disagree.

Cold thermogenesis, gotta get your Wim Hof breathing going.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 09, 2017, 07:09:53 AM
Looks like run-of-the-mill, normal brand of summer quiet and heat through the weekend into early next week, before things get interesting again.  Thunderstorms will be on the increase next week with even a possible tropical disturbance throwing more moisture into the mix late next week or into next weekend.  Some parts of the area could see a lot of rain in that kind of pattern. 

(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Curt on June 09, 2017, 08:34:05 AM
Looks like run-of-the-mill, normal brand of summer quiet and heat through the weekend into early next week, before things get interesting again.  Thunderstorms will be on the increase next week with even a possible tropical disturbance throwing more moisture into the mix late next week or into next weekend.  Some parts of the area could see a lot of rain in that kind of pattern. 

(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif)
If we can make it to July with no major heat wave, summer is already on the road to success IMO lol. If the GFS is correct, Memphis could only have less than 5 days- if not less than 3- in the 90's by July 1- which I'm totally ok. Last year we were about to heat a HI of 120 in Memphis at this time.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 09, 2017, 10:38:31 AM
If we can make it to July with no major heat wave, summer is already on the road to success IMO lol. If the GFS is correct, Memphis could only have less than 5 days- if not less than 3- in the 90's by July 1- which I'm totally ok. Last year we were about to heat a HI of 120 in Memphis at this time.

I'm thinking the same thing.  So far, I've had the windows open on more days than I've used the air conditioner.  That's unusual by now for any warm/summer season here, and is polar opposite to last year at this time (pun intended).   
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Nashville_Wx on June 09, 2017, 04:12:05 PM
I want snow.

Come to South America, things are just kicking off! Otherwise Mammoth has all you want still, hoping to get back there and ski for the 4th.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 09, 2017, 08:50:48 PM
Another awesome night.  Sitting on the deck, under the trees, and no need for technology to keep my cool.  8)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on June 10, 2017, 08:32:58 AM
Air quality alert for ozone today.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 10, 2017, 09:09:35 AM
Air quality alert for ozone today.

Looks like counties surrounding Nashville, Knoxville, Chattanooga, Memphis and Atlanta all have air quality alerts.  Welcome to stagnant summer-time high pressure.  At least it's not a long-term deal.  Unlike last summer, no one type of weather pattern locks in for too long. 

Post Merge: June 11, 2017, 06:45:21 AM
After one more dry day today, storms increase in coverage each day through the rest of the week.  Ample rainfall appears likely over the next 7 days in the TN/OH Valleys.

(http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1497180605)

What a major change from last year.  The southeast ridge (Bermuda high) has lost it's mojo, and is no longer the big bad bully on the weather block. 
Title: Summer 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on June 12, 2017, 11:55:15 AM
Things look juicy this week- daily afternoon thunderstorm chances.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: WXHD on June 12, 2017, 07:27:28 PM
Thanks to a nearby weather station I see I broke my forecasted high by several degrees topping off at 93F. It just goes to show how difficult forecasting for winter events can be. Today five degrees don't mean a thing. February, five degrees mean I'm sharpening my pitchfork and lightin my torch.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: dwagner88 on June 13, 2017, 07:21:27 AM
Thanks to a nearby weather station I see I broke my forecasted high by several degrees topping off at 93F. It just goes to show how difficult forecasting for winter events can be. Today five degrees don't mean a thing. February, five degrees mean I'm sharpening my pitchfork and lightin my torch.
94 officially here. With the humidity it felt as bad as the hottest days we had last summer. I should've known better than to expect reasonable temps during Riverbend festival week. It's always unbearably hot just in time for the event.

Just to help everyone mentally cool off, here's a picture from my trip to Banff NP in Canada from a couple of weeks ago:
(https://i.imgur.com/U2Gb0t1.jpg)
Lake Moraine, also known as Lake Reddit because pictures of it get posted there often.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: skillsweather on June 13, 2017, 01:55:50 PM
Well this week looked wet but as we seen yesterday and today the rain never happened and the chances was 40-50% and lowered. Thursday might be a decent scattered chance but thats it.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: BRUCE on June 13, 2017, 06:43:40 PM
Well this week looked wet but as we seen yesterday and today the rain never happened and the chances was 40-50% and lowered. Thursday might be a decent scattered chance but thats it.
pretty typical weather for this time year... nothing new ::sleeping::
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: WXHD on June 13, 2017, 08:17:24 PM
pretty typical weather for this time year... nothing new ::sleeping::

It's actually been usually stifling. We barely made it to 90f and the heat index exceeded 104f today. Typically weather around this time of the year is of no note. Stagnant, oppressive air in early June is unusual. Though, becoming more common.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on June 14, 2017, 05:42:00 AM
Most of the state is in a slight risk tomorrow (Day 2).


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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: BRUCE on June 14, 2017, 11:43:42 AM
Long range says... get ready for the real  ::hot::
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: cgauxknox on June 14, 2017, 01:57:03 PM
This week is feeling like a traditional Tennessee summer pattern, which we haven't seen for the past couple of years.  It seems a bit early to be so hot and muggy, but we've got heat, humidity, and decent chances of thunderstorms most afternoons.  At the moment the thunder is rumbling in West Knoxville and we're under a Significant Weather Advisory.  It's a bit tough to be dealing with the mix of heat and humidity but I like the every day thunderstorm chances.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Bentoncostrmchs on June 14, 2017, 07:58:37 PM
Ended up with .7 with a cell that just wouldn't budge. Didn't help with the humidity at all. Classic tennessee summer
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Eric on June 14, 2017, 10:56:45 PM
Gotta give our boy Adam some love...his first AFD.


(http://i63.tinypic.com/20ivy37.jpg)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Matthew on June 14, 2017, 11:52:51 PM
Gotta give our boy Adam some love...his first AFD.


(http://i63.tinypic.com/20ivy37.jpg)

Did Adam move to Chicago?
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 15, 2017, 12:22:28 AM
Did Adam move to Chicago?
I would assume he is an intern for the summer. Pretty sure he is still in school.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: mempho on June 15, 2017, 05:11:31 AM
If we can make it to July with no major heat wave, summer is already on the road to success IMO lol. If the GFS is correct, Memphis could only have less than 5 days- if not less than 3- in the 90's by July 1- which I'm totally ok. Last year we were about to heat a HI of 120 in Memphis at this time.
Yes, agreed! Summer is all about staying out of prolonged heat patterns.

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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on June 15, 2017, 05:51:37 AM
Just heard rain roaring on the roof for about 30 seconds. I checked the radar, and sure enough, a tiny cell just formed over me.

Oh - just now heard a rumble of thunder.



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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Eric on June 15, 2017, 06:15:45 AM
I would assume he is an intern for the summer. Pretty sure he is still in school.

Nailed it.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on June 15, 2017, 11:32:04 AM
Nice, noisy storms are rolling through now. Wind just picked up a good bit and just heard a loud crash of thunder.

Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on June 15, 2017, 12:19:15 PM
Oh, there's this: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1038.html


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Title: Summer 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on June 15, 2017, 12:20:57 PM
Kansas looks like the place to storm chase today- there's a moderate risk out there, although it looks more like a hail storm threat more than tornadoes.


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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Vols1 on June 15, 2017, 01:33:38 PM
Is there gonna be another batch develope and move through later?
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: skillsweather on June 15, 2017, 04:14:32 PM
Is there gonna be another batch develope and move through later?
No but some might pop up around middle Tennessee around 6-9pm tonight. Otherwise next chance is Sunday. Then we heat up it seems. If it gets hot this summer we will have a lot of humidity to deal with so its really going to suck...
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 15, 2017, 06:43:46 PM
Models performing very poorly the last two days for areas east of TYS.  Stable air has kept thunderstorms at a minimum over most areas.  We had some brief pop up storms today, but nary a drop at my place.  It's actually been pretty dry around here for June--just over an inch of rain.  Typical summer-time weather.  Feast or famine when it comes to rain, and a short distance can make a huge difference.   
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on June 17, 2017, 06:22:37 PM
Just remember- the heat could be worse-

Forecast for Phoenix:

Tuesday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 121. East wind around 5 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 90. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north after midnight.


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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: WXHD on June 17, 2017, 07:25:47 PM
Found a bunch of holes in my lawn this afternoon and a den dug out under my porch steps. Appears to be an armadillo. Trap has been purchased and set, beer has been obtained and consumed. I'm in for the long haul on this beautiful summers eve. #MAGA #MakeArmadillosGoneAgain!
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: BRUCE on June 17, 2017, 10:24:50 PM
Just remember- the heat could be worse-

Forecast for Phoenix:

Tuesday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 121. East wind around 5 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 90. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north after midnight.


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yeah... but its a very dry type heat... compared to our heat plus humidty... dont really feel that bad
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on June 17, 2017, 10:37:49 PM
yeah... but its a very dry type heat... compared to our heat plus humidty... dont really feel that bad

Even with low humidity, at 121, it feels like you're in an oven. I was in that part of AZ and over to Yuma once. It may be a dry heat, but it's a brutal heat when temps are that high.


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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Curt on June 18, 2017, 11:04:34 AM
May be seeing the start of a derecho coming across Arkansas- loads of instability to keep it going
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on June 18, 2017, 11:51:37 AM
Just stepped outside, and the humidity is up for sure.


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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: bugalou on June 18, 2017, 02:33:16 PM
Decent looking MCS headed to Memphis metro right now.  Some velocities show around 60 MPH gusts.  (Time sensitive)

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=NQA-N0Q-1-24
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Vols1 on June 18, 2017, 02:37:11 PM
Looks like the storms in west Tennessee are moving due east instead of southeast
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 18, 2017, 03:29:39 PM
An old fashioned gulley washer in Dyersburg and it looks like it is going to start training across the area.  ::drowning::
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Vols1 on June 18, 2017, 03:31:47 PM
It sure does.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: skillsweather on June 18, 2017, 03:34:49 PM
I dont understand the Flash Flood Watch. Nothing shows rain over the north east middle Tennessee into Kentucky area tonight-tomorrow worth that. However in the south west part it shows a lot more rainfall but no watch? I guess OHX sees something no one else does. lol
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: bugalou on June 18, 2017, 04:06:01 PM
I dont understand the Flash Flood Watch. Nothing shows rain over the north east middle Tennessee into Kentucky area tonight-tomorrow worth that. However in the south west part it shows a lot more rainfall but no watch? I guess OHX sees something no one else does. lol

They see the slug of 2.5" PWAT headed in that direction with a front nearby.  That combined with the terrain may lead to fast flooding in valleys.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 18, 2017, 07:28:46 PM
They see the slug of 2.5" PWAT headed in that direction with a front nearby.  That combined with the terrain may lead to fast flooding in valleys.

This is one strange system.  Models are all over the place. 

Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
727 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms this afternoon have been pretty sparse in coverage
and fizzling out as they move towards the airports. Another round
will move in tonight and bring another chance at storms, but some
of the high resolution models are trending towards a drier
solution overnight.
Will keep mention of storms in the TAFs for
now, but might trim down the duration in the next issuance. Storms
will likely be in the area through most of tomorrow.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: bugalou on June 18, 2017, 07:59:15 PM
This is one strange system.  Models are all over the place.

Welcome to summer time MCSes and washed out cold fronts.  ;D
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: skillsweather on June 19, 2017, 01:38:36 AM
Looks like the models was right no more rain tonight. Silly ffw is silly. Idk why issue that so far in advance unless theres a higher chance of it raining or sprinkling.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 19, 2017, 06:13:47 AM
A whopping .01 of rain overnight.  There are a few scattered downpours around this morning--but they are few and far between.  Confidence in a decent rain event here is waning. 

Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
331 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday Night)...Heavy rainfall that
was expected to occur from Sunday afternoon to the present moment
over the Plateau did not materialize, and so the Flood Watch has
been cancelled. Still expecting showers and scattered
thunderstorms to impact the area through the day as a cold front
moves through the area.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: dwagner88 on June 19, 2017, 07:42:25 AM
A whopping .01 of rain overnight.  There are a few scattered downpours around this morning--but they are few and far between.  Confidence in a decent rain event here is waning.
This week looks pretty wet on the GFS, but it hasn't handled this event well so far here. Not a drop of rain yet here.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 19, 2017, 07:57:18 AM
Looks like we might have a tropical system to keep an eye on. Parts of if not all of the state could be affected.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 19, 2017, 08:00:47 AM
This week looks pretty wet on the GFS, but it hasn't handled this event well so far here. Not a drop of rain yet here.

True.  Models have been all over the place lately, mostly overdoing rain amounts and coverage.  The 7 day QPF has us getting a ton of water--mostly from a tropical system coming ashore in the Gulf and riding up this way as a trough digs in to the Eastern U.S.  We'll see. . .

(http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1497876887)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: bigdog660 on June 19, 2017, 10:10:40 AM
0.33" here overnight. 😁

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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 19, 2017, 10:21:56 AM
0.33" here overnight. 😁

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You’ve all been doing pretty well in the rainfall department over that way in the current pattern.  Further east, it’s been rather dry this month—at least in some areas.   
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: skillsweather on June 19, 2017, 11:26:16 AM
You’ve all been doing pretty well in the rainfall department over that way in the current pattern.  Further east, it’s been rather dry this month—at least in some areas.   
That should change this week with that tropical system hitting more of eastern Tennessee. This weekends rain was a total let down but tropical systems are usually decent hits so hopefully it pans out. Anything to help keep droughts from happening.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Crockett on June 19, 2017, 11:36:49 AM
We are a long ways away from drought concerns in any part of Tennessee right now. I can't speak for far eastern Tennessee but here on the plateau, we're looking at potentially 4-5 inches of rain if the worst case scenario pans out with the weekend tropical system, and that's 4-5 inches of rain we certainly don't need. Flooding is a far more likely scenario than drought right now.

I can't imagine anyone being thrilled by this weather pattern. Hay producers are loving it (except those who are having trouble finding enough dry weather to get their first cutting completed and put away) but other ag producers are starting to see damage to their crops from all the wet weather.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: bugalou on June 19, 2017, 12:13:07 PM
We are a long ways away from drought concerns in any part of Tennessee right now. I can't speak for far eastern Tennessee but here on the plateau, we're looking at potentially 4-5 inches of rain if the worst case scenario pans out with the weekend tropical system, and that's 4-5 inches of rain we certainly don't need. Flooding is a far more likely scenario than drought right now.

I can't imagine anyone being thrilled by this weather pattern. Hay producers are loving it (except those who are having trouble finding enough dry weather to get their first cutting completed and put away) but other ag producers are starting to see damage to their crops from all the wet weather.

Excellent point.  I know on the west end of the state, we have been so wet that it is limiting the 90 degree days here.  We are usually well into regular 90 degree days by this time of the year, but we have only had a few.  I am not complaining about that as I hate the heat, but I know that that too much rain is problem for farmers.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: joemomma on June 19, 2017, 12:20:20 PM
It's def been wet over our way....my pepper plants are not loving it.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Curt on June 19, 2017, 01:28:59 PM
12z Euro is cranking out 5-10 inch rain amounts from memphis eastward- especially SW TN and North MS with the tropical system this weekend. Behind it is dry cooler air and temps in the 50's at night for several days.

Someone is gonna get flooding this weekend.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: bugalou on June 19, 2017, 01:52:27 PM
These will  be the maps to keep an eye on this week:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml (http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: bigdog660 on June 19, 2017, 02:23:42 PM
I think no one at this point wants 4 to 5 inches of rain, especially within a couple of days.

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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 19, 2017, 04:14:05 PM
I think no one at this point wants 4 to 5 inches of rain, especially within a couple of days.

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Exactly.  Over my way, I've only had an inch of rain this month in two brief downpours pretty early on, and the current system has yet to drop any IMBY, despite models daily showing .50-1.00" the last few days.  While I would like to see some rain for newly planted trees/shrubs that I'm watering daily now, who needs 4-5 inches in the current pattern?  That would be too much for even a thirsty garden. 
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Curt on June 19, 2017, 04:29:04 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170619/0b60faa4131a2f3bddb3d82169809f21.png)

GEFS 12z ensemble members
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 19, 2017, 04:43:14 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170619/0b60faa4131a2f3bddb3d82169809f21.png)

GEFS 12z ensemble members

One thing to note is that with weak tropical storms the heavy precipitation area can be displaced well east and north from where the actual storm center travels.

Post Merge: June 19, 2017, 06:22:00 PM

I can't imagine anyone being thrilled by this weather pattern.

I can't imagine anyone enjoying destructive severe storms or tornadoes, but there are those who do, and many unabashedly show their excitement each severe weather season on this forum.  Others show up in winter and go crazy over a heavy snow storm in the forecast.  Heavy rain, drought, tornadoes, severe storms, heavy snow, ice storms, extreme cold/heat--all of it brings hardship to human beings in one way or another.  It's weather, and we're just here to talk about it--nothing more. 
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: BRUCE on June 19, 2017, 07:07:33 PM
One thing to note is that with weak tropical storms the heavy precipitation area can be displaced well east and north from where the actual storm center travels.

Post Merge: June 19, 2017, 06:22:00 PM
I can't imagine anyone enjoying destructive severe storms or tornadoes, but there are those who do, and many unabashedly show their excitement each severe weather season on this forum.  Others show up in winter and go crazy over a heavy snow storm in the forecast.  Heavy rain, drought, tornadoes, severe storms, heavy snow, ice storms, extreme cold/heat--all of it brings hardship to human beings in one way or another.  It's weather, and we're just here to talk about it--nothing more.
give me my severe weather with tornadoes  anyday....
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Crockett on June 19, 2017, 07:56:43 PM
One thing to note is that with weak tropical storms the heavy precipitation area can be displaced well east and north from where the actual storm center travels.

Post Merge: June 19, 2017, 06:22:00 PM
I can't imagine anyone enjoying destructive severe storms or tornadoes, but there are those who do, and many unabashedly show their excitement each severe weather season on this forum.  Others show up in winter and go crazy over a heavy snow storm in the forecast.  Heavy rain, drought, tornadoes, severe storms, heavy snow, ice storms, extreme cold/heat--all of it brings hardship to human beings in one way or another.  It's weather, and we're just here to talk about it--nothing more.

In fairness, I believe those who root for severe weather are weird, too.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: bigdog660 on June 20, 2017, 12:12:30 AM
Exactly.  Over my way, I've only had an inch of rain this month in two brief downpours pretty early on, and the current system has yet to drop any IMBY, despite models daily showing .50-1.00" the last few days.  While I would like to see some rain for newly planted trees/shrubs that I'm watering daily now, who needs 4-5 inches in the current pattern?  That would be too much for even a thirsty garden.
My total for yesterday was a measly 0.02". Total for the month is 2.50", so we could have used the 1.20" that was predicted yesterday but never showed up. If we could get another 2.50" by the end of the month, we'd bet sitting pretty.

Also note we were a bit below average in rain for May as well.

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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 20, 2017, 05:28:52 AM
give me my severe weather with tornadoes  anyday....

My point was everyone has their likes and dislikes.  To each his own.  I don't have a qualm with that--even Crockett liking his endless sun and heat  ;D.  Personally, that gets boring to me after a week of it like we've had in eastern TN.  I enjoy good weather, and don't care for endless rainy days, but if I didn't find bad weather somewhat interesting, I wouldn't be here. 

East TN can handle 2-3 inches of rain with only minor issues, considering the time of year and recent dryness in some areas.   Middle and west TN are a different story.  Some models show the corridor of heavy rain in west TN, others in Middle.  Some show east TN getting a lot of rain, others show around an inch.  One thing to keep in mind for east TN is the possibility of downsloping if the low tracks to our west. That would greatly reduce rain amounts here.

For areas needing a break in rain, a dry northwest flow follows the trough after the weekend, and a rain-free time ensues.

(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: dwagner88 on June 20, 2017, 08:05:08 AM
I think much of the state will be dealing with flooding come Friday. Downsloping may help areas like TRI, but won't do much for those of us south of I-40 in east TN. This looks like a setup for significant valley flooding. Even though this thing will track closer to west TN, the heaviest rains will be falling well east of there. I'm guessing along the GA/AL border. The east facing slopes of the mountains will also get hammered. Reminds be a bit of the Labor Day storm from 4-5 years ago. We broke our 24 hour rainfall record just days after setting a record for the driest month ever.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 20, 2017, 08:42:11 AM
I think much of the state will be dealing with flooding come Friday. Downsloping may help areas like TRI, but won't do much for those of us south of I-40 in east TN. This looks like a setup for significant valley flooding. Even though this thing will track closer to west TN, the heaviest rains will be falling well east of there. I'm guessing along the GA/AL border. The east facing slopes of the mountains will also get hammered. Reminds be a bit of the Labor Day storm from 4-5 years ago. We broke our 24 hour rainfall record just days after setting a record for the driest month ever.

Depending on the strength of the system, there may not be much downsloping to speak of.  A weak system with a broad circulation wouldn't produce the strong southeast winds needed for downsloping into east TN.  Right now, that looks to be the case, so I think we're in for a super soaker of a system across the board. 

I only rec'd .25" yesterday, for a total of 1.4" for June so far.  May was slightly below normal as well.  2-3 inches of rain here over a 3-4 day period would cause the typical low-land flooding and small creeks and streams would flood.  Any more than that, and even we'll have problems.  I think the Plateau and the southern valley around Chatty are in for some major flooding, though, and possibly even the central valley that has rec'd a lot more rain than areas east of there.

Post Merge: June 20, 2017, 09:30:30 AM
The upcoming weather pattern reminds me more of September than June-- a tropical system followed by a deep trough with cool Canadian air.  Highs in the 70's in June under a clear sky?  Looks quite possible next week if we survive the deluge. 

(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: skillsweather on June 20, 2017, 04:17:14 PM
Quote
Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
335 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...Remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy to Bring Copious Rain to
Middle Tennessee...

Existing Conditions...

Middle Tennessee is in good shape regarding rainfall so far this
year. In fact, no one in the mid-state is dealing with any drought
conditions. Annual rainfall totals at our climatological sites are
all near or above normal rainfall values since January 1. This
means the ground in Middle Tennessee is quite capable of absorbing
a decent amount of rainfall without experiencing flash flooding.

Streamflows...

Currently, all rivers and streams are flowing at normal levels due
to recent rains.

Outlook...

Rainfall from approaching Tropical Storm Cindy is expected to
begin affecting Middle Tennessee by Thursday morning. Between
Thursday and Saturday, average rainfall amounts may reach 3 to 4
inches. This is an acceptable amount of rainfall when spread over
3 days time. However, if anyone experiences training of storms or
any other prolonged period of rain, higher rainfall totals may
occur. This would likely result in localized flash flooding.

Of greater concern will be the runoff from the expected rains at
the end of the week. Streams and rivers in Middle Tennessee will
likely experience rises that could throw several spots into at
least Action Stage by Sunday or Monday.

Please monitor the Hazardous Weather Outlook as well as other
products issued by the National Weather Service in Nashville over
the next couple of days to remain aware of any flood potential.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 21, 2017, 05:43:46 AM
Models still can't make up their mind where the heaviest rain falls.  06Z GFS takes a corridor of 2-4+ inches of rain from northwest & north middle TN into KY.  The rest of the state gets from 1-2.5" of rain with the remnants of Cindy and a frontal passage.  For east TN (east of TYS), that would merely be a good soaking which is needed in some areas to get us back to normal for the month.  Official NCEP QPF forecast also has the heaviest rain in west/middle TN into KY. 

Overall, I think the greatest flooding risk will be in west/middle TN (and maybe the southern Valley of East TN).  They've had more rain so far this warm season, and the models are trending at placing the heaviest rain there.  1-2" of rain for upper east TN won't present a problem, if that's what actually falls. 

Post Merge: June 21, 2017, 06:57:15 AM
Interesting that the current forecast now has Cindy's remnants moving directly over TN.  Earlier forecasts had the storm ending up in KY.  Not sure if that means anything considering how weak the storm will be, and the heaviest rain will be displaced east and north of any storm "center."

(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL032017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/114032_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: dwagner88 on June 21, 2017, 07:42:17 AM
I noticed that the GFS jumped to over 5" of rain at kcha last night, then dropped back to 3.3" this morning. Most of the additional rain was shown falling on Saturday and was presumably associated with the remains of Cindy. That's gone this AM.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: bugalou on June 21, 2017, 08:24:21 AM
Current Day 3 outlook (time sensitive)

(http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99ewbg.gif)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 21, 2017, 12:28:55 PM
Current run of the GFS keeps the stripe of heavy rain in northwest TN into KY.  It's a bit more generous with the rain in Eastern TN around TYS--dropping nearly 3" there.  Strangely, it has a "hole" of lower totals just south of OHX. 
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: harlequin on June 21, 2017, 02:01:19 PM
My Dad is definitely unhappy about more rain down on the farm. They've had a difficult year with locally heavy rain. For example, one day in late May they received nearly 6" across the area and it didn't even rain at my house in Memphis.

I was in San Francisco this past weekend, and it got over 90 even in the city. While it's been seasonably warm and quite muggy here, I was still hoping for a reprieve.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: bugalou on June 21, 2017, 03:32:36 PM
Most of Memphis Metro and northeastward now now in a moderate risk for excessive rain in the day 3 outlook (see my above post)

Post Merge: June 21, 2017, 03:36:49 PM
My Dad is definitely unhappy about more rain down on the farm. They've had a difficult year with locally heavy rain. For example, one day in late May they received nearly 6" across the area and it didn't even rain at my house in Memphis.

I was in San Francisco this past weekend, and it got over 90 even in the city. While it's been seasonably warm and quite muggy here, I was still hoping for a reprieve.

The delta is interesting during periods of excessive rain.  All that flat farm land become lakes with roads intersecting them.  It can fell more like  driving on a long bridge than a road during the really wet times.

Also you picked a bad time to head west!   ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 21, 2017, 04:04:18 PM
Man it would awesome to have an arctic air mass locked in with this.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: bugalou on June 21, 2017, 04:20:01 PM
Man it would awesome to have an arctic air mass locked in with this.  ::rofl::

I kind of lived this with Sandy.  Some parts of West Virginia in the cold sector got like 2' of snow  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 21, 2017, 05:28:57 PM
Here's hoping we don't have a system like this over us on this date two months from now.  I hope to  drive only an hour to see a once-in-a-lifetime event.  But if need be, I'll drive much further if it's cloudy here. 

Post Merge: June 21, 2017, 06:25:23 PM
2017 is full of rarities.  Here is one for June happening next week--

Quote
Tuesday:   Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: mamMATTus on June 21, 2017, 07:30:01 PM
Thought I would share some insider info from my Uncle's friend whom is a TVA retiree. TVA is preparing to open all of their spillways in east/middle TN. Apparently some of their private forecasters are expecting the system to stall out right over TN.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: BRUCE on June 21, 2017, 08:31:00 PM
Man it would awesome to have an arctic air mass locked in with this.  ::rofl::
dont know why... because good chance it just would be suppressed... :)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Crockett on June 21, 2017, 08:36:25 PM
Man it would awesome to have an arctic air mass locked in with this.  ::rofl::

With all the Gulf moisture streaming in? WAA for the win.  ;D
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 22, 2017, 06:01:26 AM
Northwest TN into KY continues to be the bulls-eye for the heaviest rain.   Rain amounts continue to be trimmed back slightly into East TN.  Looks like a decent 1-2" may fall according to the recent GFS and NAM--which should be easily absorbed.  Fortunately, widespread flooding won't be a concern here, at least.  Hopefully, it won't be too bad in areas further west and north. 

(http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif?1498128750478)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 22, 2017, 06:54:43 AM
I will take being too wet over a drought any day but we do not need that. Already have close 4.5 for the month of June.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 22, 2017, 07:26:47 AM
I will take being too wet over a drought any day but we do not need that. Already have close 4.5 for the month of June.

If I could, I would flip-flop the heavy rain over toward us.  I've only had 1.5" for the month.  The ground could probably handle it better over here.  I just hope to catch up closer to normal. 
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Curt on June 22, 2017, 09:34:30 AM
Tropical rains have started here. It never looks that impressive on radar until you see it in person .

Could be a corridor of wind gusts over 40 tomorrow am wherever the depression moves through. Should be interesting to watch.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 22, 2017, 09:48:44 AM
Current HRRR has a stripe of heavy rain in the mid-state (1+"), but lesser amounts east and west of there.  Right now sprinkles falling here, and radar shows a weakening trend of precip as it moves up the Great Valley of east TN. I think some downsloping is hindering the moisture over this way--as is usually the case with large scale systems moving to our west.     
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on June 22, 2017, 11:30:52 AM
Tropical rains have started here. It never looks that impressive on radar until you see it in person .

Could be a corridor of wind gusts over 40 tomorrow am wherever the depression moves through. Should be interesting to watch.

True. I'm already noticing when one of these showers/bands come through, winds pick up a bit. You can tell it's a little out of the ordinary.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Curt on June 22, 2017, 11:53:18 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170622/f57de9574f49648269bef4daacf8ed58.png)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170622/128f358676870b849be917008070bb47.png)

12z 3k nam Wind gusts tomorrow morning and precipitation below. This has Cindy going just NW of Memphis. There should be a corridor of strong but compact winds and rain just to the southeast of the center wherever it goes. If there are winds gusts in the mid 50 range with rain it could lead to quite a few power outages.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: skillsweather on June 22, 2017, 11:55:28 AM
Its so nice outside. Like everything is green as can be grass/trees/bush's ect. and on top of that getting a nice soaking rain today and tomorrow with cooler temps next week. Really doesn't seem like the end of June at all. I mean normally this time of year things are drying out from the heat and lack of rain. 4th of July fires will be like zilch at this rate.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: wfrogge on June 22, 2017, 01:29:52 PM
Lots of sun out in Memphis and points south. Could be a busy afternoon with warnings.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: BRUCE on June 22, 2017, 01:53:26 PM
Lots of sun out in Memphis and points south. Could be a busy afternoon with warnings.
yeah... cells between baton rouge and hjackson ms could produce quick spinup... Sun out here also....
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 22, 2017, 02:31:23 PM
We've had a thimble-full of rain here--maybe.  Just enough to wet the pavement.  I'll consider myself blessed if I get an inch of rain out of this system.  If I do, I'll still end up below normal for the month with 2.5", while I had 3.55" last June (2016).  The last week of June looks pretty dry area wide. 

Per MRX today for next week:
Quote
Weather during the upcoming work week is best described as "pleasant, but
boring
." 

Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: mempho on June 22, 2017, 03:52:49 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170622/f57de9574f49648269bef4daacf8ed58.png)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170622/128f358676870b849be917008070bb47.png)

12z 3k nam Wind gusts tomorrow morning and precipitation below. This has Cindy going just NW of Memphis. There should be a corridor of strong but compact winds and rain just to the southeast of the center wherever it goes. If there are winds gusts in the mid 50 range with rain it could lead to quite a few power outages.

Is this a redevelopment scenario depicted (ala TD Erin which restrengthened to a TS over Oklahoma)?
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: skillsweather on June 22, 2017, 04:44:26 PM
Got about an inch today going to get about 1-1 1/2 inch's tomorrow a nice soaking for sure. Further north seems to be where the flooding might happen.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: bugalou on June 22, 2017, 04:46:32 PM
Here's hoping we don't have a system like this over us on this date two months from now.  I hope to  drive only an hour to see a once-in-a-lifetime event.  But if need be, I'll drive much further if it's cloudy here. 

Post Merge: June 21, 2017, 06:25:23 PM
2017 is full of rarities.  Here is one for June happening next week--

There is another total solar eclipse that goes through Arkansas NEward in 2024.

Post Merge: June 22, 2017, 04:50:11 PM
Is this a redevelopment scenario depicted (ala TD Erin which restrengthened to a TS over Oklahoma)?

AR has a lot of very saturated ground from all the recent river flooding.  It certain is something to at least consider.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 22, 2017, 06:13:43 PM
The first spin up tornado in the mid south with this storm currently in Arkansas.

Post Merge: June 22, 2017, 06:21:45 PM
Can't believe there is not a TOR on the one in north Mississippi



Post Merge: June 22, 2017, 06:41:35 PM
There is a warning now. Way too late. Not near as impressive now. I would be willing to bet a lot that there was a tornado earlier
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 22, 2017, 06:56:30 PM
There is another total solar eclipse that goes through Arkansas NEward in 2024.


2024?  Considering the current state of the world, good luck seeing that one.   
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: mempho on June 22, 2017, 07:18:41 PM
Holly springs-  is that an inflow notch?

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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: wfrogge on June 22, 2017, 08:35:28 PM
Well that escalated quickly from sitting on my butt to a storm chase


(http://i.imgur.com/EY3Bgiv.jpg)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: mempho on June 22, 2017, 10:05:22 PM
A possible "brown ocean effect" us in play tonight.  This only happens in about 20% of storms who meet the qualifications but it would seem that these criteria are in play tonight with the diurnal maximum occurring as the center crosses an area that is both relatively flat and which contains abundant soil moisture. 

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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: mempho on June 22, 2017, 10:08:19 PM
There is another total solar eclipse that goes through Arkansas NEward in 2024.

Post Merge: June 22, 2017, 04:50:11 PM
AR has a lot of very saturated ground from all the recent river flooding.  It certain is something to at least consider.
Yes, I've done some research and this would appear to be a near perfect scenario for this.  Of course, it only happens less than 20% of the time..

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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: skillsweather on June 22, 2017, 10:34:19 PM
Where is the rain? Memphis area was supposed to be getting pounded and theres like only isolated showers/storms? I was expecting a blob of rain lol
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: mempho on June 23, 2017, 03:58:25 AM
Where is the rain? Memphis area was supposed to be getting pounded and theres like only isolated showers/storms? I was expecting a blob of rain lol
Don't look now but it appears that convection is definitely on the increase around the center of circulation and the center appears to be attempting to close off and form an eye.  It's too early to slay if this will mean much or if we're seeing any brown ocean effect happening but this could get interesting.

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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: mempho on June 23, 2017, 04:09:29 AM





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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: mempho on June 23, 2017, 04:20:36 AM
KAWM (West Memphis) reporting 23mph wind sustained right on the periphery of the convection wrapping around the center. 

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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on June 23, 2017, 05:08:05 AM
Precip shield has really blossomed and filled in since last night. It was looking rather spotty on radar but looks more solid on radar now.


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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: mempho on June 23, 2017, 05:32:32 AM
Precip shield has really blossomed and filled in since last night. It was looking rather spotty on radar but looks more solid on radar now.


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Yes, it's done that for sure.  Unfortunately, it appears that the attempt to wrap precip around the north of the center is failing now.  Without a quick and radical reversal, it's not going to be heading back to tropical storm status.  Cindy certainly made a valiant attempt over the diurnal maximum early this morning, though. 

Also, it would appear that it did restrengthen during the overnight.  Not going to be on part with TS Erin in Oklahoma, though -  barring a sudden change. 
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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: mempho on June 23, 2017, 05:42:18 AM
You can clearly see the battle between the tropical and post-tropical elements going on this morning.  Cindy is still "desiring" to regain tropical characteristics and the environment is just telling her "no."

The other item, other than the immediate short-term ramifications during the metro morning rush, is what will happen when Cindy meets up with that strong front dropping out of the Great Plains/Ohio Valley.  There's lots of juice there. 

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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: mempho on June 23, 2017, 05:59:54 AM
Cindy appears to be trying now to close reform a much tighter core now. 

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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on June 23, 2017, 07:09:01 AM
The sun is shining over here this morning. There's a bit of a breeze stirring.  Going to be interesting watching how this system progresses today. Spin-ups are possible, in addition to the heavy rain.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: dwagner88 on June 23, 2017, 07:41:52 AM
Got 2" in the bucket yesterday. Looks like another 1-1.5" tonight. Finally seeing some breezy weather for the first time this AM.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: harlequin on June 23, 2017, 07:50:44 AM
Whew, what a nasty commute.

Power outages increasing some this morning.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 23, 2017, 08:30:49 AM
We are at 1 inch of rain with the eye about to move in . Hope I make it. :)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Curt on June 23, 2017, 08:43:02 AM
Horrendous commute this morning here- maybe like a snow or ice lol
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: mamMATTus on June 23, 2017, 10:14:04 AM
The sun is shining brightly here in the Tennessee Valley. I'd be shocked if the Slight and 5% Tor did not verify today.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Crockett on June 23, 2017, 10:38:35 AM
The sun is shining brightly here in the Tennessee Valley. I'd be shocked if the Slight and 5% Tor did not verify today.

HRRR is rather meh.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: mamMATTus on June 23, 2017, 10:50:55 AM
HRRR is rather meh.

Already one TOR at the SW edge of the Slight area. Don't spoil the fun!! I'm getting some pretty strong gusts out of the southeast where I'm at right now btw.

Post Merge: June 23, 2017, 11:17:06 AM
Mesoscale Discussion: Tor Watch Incoming

[url]http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1130.html/url]

Quote
Mesoscale Discussion 1130
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1054 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

   Areas affected...Middle TN...Northeast MS...Central/northern AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

   Valid 231554Z - 231730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual increase in the severe threat is expected late
   this morning into the afternoon. A few tornadoes and isolated
   damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. Watch issuance is
   likely late this morning or early this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has been increasing in intensity this
   morning, along the leading edge of the broader precipitation shield
   associated with TC Cindy. The environment ahead this convection is
   characterized by very moist/tropical profiles, with poor lapse rates
   but favorable wind profiles for supercells and other organized storm
   structures. As continued heating and modest destabilization occurs
   downstream, the severe threat is expected to increase. Recent CAM
   guidance is suggestive of a mixed-mode threat, with some tornado
   threat resulting from mini-supercell development, while a threat of
   damaging wind gusts will increase with larger-scale convective line
   segments.

   In a relative sense, the tornado threat will likely be greatest
   across the northern portion of the MCD area, where backed low-level
   flow will increase low-level shear/SRH, while the wind threat may be
   maximized further south, where low-level flow remains strong but
   vertical profiles would tend to favor line segments. One or more
   watches are likely late this morning or early this afternoon to
   cover these threats.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/23/2017/quote]


Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: skillsweather on June 23, 2017, 11:38:34 AM
Well this turned out to be a lot dryer of a system for Middle Tennessee area then its shown all week. Went from 5+ to less then 2 lol
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: mamMATTus on June 23, 2017, 12:25:55 PM
And we have our watch...

(http://i64.tinypic.com/2lkf8fn.png)

Quote
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 365
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1215 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of
     Western and Northern Alabama
     Northwest Georgia
     Eastern Mississippi
     Middle and Eastern Tennessee

   * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until
     800 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes possible
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Preceding the east/northeastward-moving remnants of Cindy,
   a very air mass and strong low/mid-level winds will support both
   organized bowing structures and some line-preceding or embedded
   supercells capable of a few tornadoes and locally damaging winds
   this afternoon into early evening.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Crossville
   TN to 20 miles south southwest of Tuscaloosa AL. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 24040.

   ...Guyer/quote]
Title: Summer 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on June 23, 2017, 01:43:06 PM
It's congealed into a line along I-65 now... with quite honestly not much to come further west. The main shield has shifted into KY already. There are some warnings for the part of the line in AL.


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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Curt on June 23, 2017, 01:50:28 PM
Now have a nice squall line with the cold front moving SE from Mo and northern Arkansas. Hrr has this strengthening and moving into west TN by early evening
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on June 23, 2017, 01:54:00 PM
This does seem more like a scenario we would see in September with a strong cold front coming in behind the departing remnants of a tropical system... it's even going to feel fallish for a few days after this with morning lows dipping into the upper 50s.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Curt on June 23, 2017, 01:59:36 PM
This does seem more like a scenario we would see in September with a strong cold front coming in behind the departing remnants of a tropical system... it's even going to feel fallish for a few days after this with morning lows dipping into the upper 50s.

You know we will have at least one week of upper 90's to 100, or perhaps a brief run AOA 100. If it happens in July, followed by some stints of "cooler" air- at night anyways- it's a success in my book.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: bugalou on June 23, 2017, 02:46:19 PM
Next several hours could be interesting for Memphis.  We have an MCS headed straight into the rich tropical moisture from Cindy during maximum heating hours with Cindy's meso low right on top of us.  This could be another big wind event.  Something to watch for sure.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on June 23, 2017, 03:30:44 PM
So, could there actually be a derecho on the back side of this thing? That's a persistent bowing feature in AR.


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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: skillsweather on June 23, 2017, 03:37:47 PM
So, could there actually be a derecho on the back side of this thing? That's a persistent bowing feature in AR.


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Not for Middle Tennessee. And its more from the cold front not from Cindy at all. If anything Cindy is the reason it will fall apart once it runs into Memphis area. Idk if saying the atmosphere is worked over is the right term but its clear that something in the air is preventing rain (maybe dry air idk..) Otherwise wouldn't this cold front moving in next to a tropical system scream rain? When in fact it will come through with nothing for us besides maybe a spotty light shower at best.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: harlequin on June 23, 2017, 03:53:21 PM
Even 40-50 mph winds will bring things down. There's still around 4,700 out from this morning, and dead limbs are still randomly falling in my neighborhood. Certainly worth watching that line.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 23, 2017, 04:18:19 PM
Total non-event here, despite some gusty afternoon winds.  Line of storms heading eastward is unimpressive and weakening despite moving in during peak afternoon heating.  Would've been nice to get some needed rain in areas that still are running way below normal for June.  Hoping for at least a quarter inch. 
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 23, 2017, 04:19:40 PM
Maybe I have been concentrating on Cindy but I sure was not expecting what is rolling across Arkansas. I do not think that was forecasted.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 23, 2017, 08:30:20 PM
Been an unusual June evening.  A great deal of wind, but not the typical thunderstorms you would expect this time of year--simply light showers.

I could complain that we got very little rain with this system, and, unlike most in the TN valley, we could actually use a good soaking here.  Instead, considering I grilled out my dinner surrounded by lightning bugs and a good 20 mph breeze that kept the mosquitos away, and, considering I could hear the rustling leaves and the sighing trees in the gathering twilight, I'll just say I'm blessed. 

Perspective. 
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: dwagner88 on June 26, 2017, 07:12:40 AM
51 IMBY this morning. Feels like I'm back out west again.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 26, 2017, 07:39:36 AM
Amazing weather for mid-summer over the next few days.  Mild days, cool nights and low humidity. 

Later in the week, we get back to more normal weather for summer, but who can complain about mid-upper 80's with daily chances for thunderstorms?  Compared to last year, or most summers here for that matter, that's easy breezy.   8)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: cgauxknox on June 26, 2017, 08:06:28 AM
I agree that this is a wonderful break from summer weather.  I got out for an early morning walk before work and it's almost magic to have temperatures in the 50s with low humidity at the end of June.  Heat and humidity will certainly be back soon enough but it was almost a fall feel in the air this morning.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Coach B on June 26, 2017, 11:24:54 AM
Looks like I may go three full days without having to turn on the AC in late June. Thats pretty impressive.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: dwagner88 on June 26, 2017, 01:25:27 PM
Looks like I may go three full days without having to turn on the AC in late June. Thats pretty impressive.
I wish I could do that. The sun is just too powerful this time of year. Still gets too hot in the house in the afternoon even with all the windows open. I need more shade trees.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: schneitzeit on June 27, 2017, 08:02:29 AM
Looks like a low of 55 tonight in Knoxville   ::fingerscrossed:: Not too far from the record low for June 28 (51), set in 1987
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Coach B on June 28, 2017, 07:42:16 AM
I wish I could do that. The sun is just too powerful this time of year. Still gets too hot in the house in the afternoon even with all the windows open. I need more shade trees.
It does get warm upstairs in the late afternoon. I just tell the kids to tough it out. They'll be cold by morning. :)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on June 29, 2017, 08:11:16 AM
Starting today, it's back to summer-time temps and humidity.  But even what's coming isn't extreme by any means--just "normal" for mid-summer, and can't compare to last year's misery. 

Increasing chances of afternoon thunderstorms will be welcome over this way.  Some areas of Sevier, Jefferson, Greene, and Cocke counties have only seen 1.5-2.5" of rain so far this month, and we need to do some catching up.  Hopefully, the more typical daily chances of summer storms in the increasing instability will help. I know it's coming over a holiday weekend, but I don't mind nature's fireworks thrown in the mix.  It's not like it's going to be a wash-out of a weekend by any means.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: bugalou on June 30, 2017, 08:56:32 PM
Long term is largely keeping west TN with NW flow aloft.  Pretty much constant MCS threat with this pattern in place and mesoscale details to give MEG next to zero chance of forecast verification farther than 24 hours out.  Coolish, but high humidity with all the rain an soil moisture. Over all I will take it, better than a boring heat ridge.

Some signs of the western ridge building east long term in voodoo land but there is really no telling at that range.  I think there is going to be enough soil moisture at least into mid Aug to avoid 100+ heat.

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Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: harlequin on July 01, 2017, 01:34:29 PM
Must've been some very strong localized wind in Arlington overnight. My coworker lost 5 enormous oak trees. I didn't even know it stormed. Granted, maybe it didn't in Midtown.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: dwagner88 on July 01, 2017, 03:29:47 PM
These storms this afternoon are going to push my annual rainfall total close to the final amount for the entirety of 2016. And it's only July 1. The airport recorded a 49 mph gust with these storms.

In other slightly OT news, my wife and I had our first child yesterday! So I'm watching these storms from the hospital room. Everybody is happy and healthy!
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: cgauxknox on July 01, 2017, 05:17:50 PM
These storms this afternoon are going to push my annual rainfall total close to the final amount for the entirety of 2016. And it's only July 1. The airport recorded a 49 mph gust with these storms.

In other slightly OT news, my wife and I had our first child yesterday! So I'm watching these storms from the hospital room. Everybody is happy and healthy!

Congratulations!  A baby born to thunderstorms will probably be as addicted to the weather as Dad is  ::applause:: 

Up the valley we had lots of rain and rumbles in West Knoxville, but based on the warnings that came out apparently others got some wind and half inch hail out of the system that came through over the past couple of hours.  I'll definitely take this over the drought we suffered last summer.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: bugalou on July 02, 2017, 02:05:44 PM
These storms this afternoon are going to push my annual rainfall total close to the final amount for the entirety of 2016. And it's only July 1. The airport recorded a 49 mph gust with these storms.

In other slightly OT news, my wife and I had our first child yesterday! So I'm watching these storms from the hospital room. Everybody is happy and healthy!

Congrats!  Hopefully just some nice lightning for a while for you then.  ;D

Post Merge: July 02, 2017, 02:11:44 PM
Must've been some very strong localized wind in Arlington overnight. My coworker lost 5 enormous oak trees. I didn't even know it stormed. Granted, maybe it didn't in Midtown.

There were two mesoscale boundaries to the north and south of Memphis yesterday.  Wouldn't be surprised to see something fire in between.
Tim Vasquez took the night off last night on his nightly weather lab forecast, but I am hoping he covers it tonight.
If any of you haven't checked out his YouTube channel its a wealth of info and is usually live nightly 5-6 days a week.  He dives much more into the science than an average weather webcast.  It's good enough I support him on patreon:
https://www.youtube.com/user/timwxx
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: NashRugger on July 03, 2017, 09:40:21 AM
It'll be interesting to see how this MCV in NW TN will affect coverage of storms today. The chances seem awfully low for this type of setup and I expect and marked increase in percentages later this morning.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Beth on July 03, 2017, 11:56:37 AM
These storms this afternoon are going to push my annual rainfall total close to the final amount for the entirety of 2016. And it's only July 1. The airport recorded a 49 mph gust with these storms.

In other slightly OT news, my wife and I had our first child yesterday! So I'm watching these storms from the hospital room. Everybody is happy and healthy!

Congratulations on your new little baby! 👼🏻👼🏻👼🏻👼🏻💖
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: skillsweather on July 03, 2017, 12:41:59 PM
It'll be interesting to see how this MCV in NW TN will affect coverage of storms today. The chances seem awfully low for this type of setup and I expect and marked increase in percentages later this morning.
Nice call. They probably saw where future radars had it break up and a new one form later tonight. Obviously that didnt happen.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on July 04, 2017, 07:14:43 AM
Finally getting some good soaking rains here.  Since July 1, I've had 2.36" (more than I had in all of June--2.06").  1.27" of that fell yesterday in a tropical-like thunderstorm.  Heaviest rain in terms of intensity so far this year. 
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: snowdog on July 04, 2017, 08:31:04 AM
Snowdog, reporting from hibernation. This "cool" and wet summer has been awesome thus far. I give mother nature 2 thumbs up. 

Hope everyone has a great 4th.  ::flag::   ::unclesam::   ::flag::
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on July 04, 2017, 11:07:53 AM
Last time we had a very hot summer followed by a mild winter, then a cool, wet summer was 2012 & 2013.  If memory serves, the following winter of 2013-14 was very cold & the year Alabama & the city of Atlanta had the infamous snow that shut down the highways.  Could the upcoming winter give us something similar??

Since Snowdog reported in, figured I'd give a quick winter commercial break.  We now resume our regularly scheduled thread already in progress. 
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: harlequin on July 04, 2017, 02:48:07 PM
Tornado Warning for Woodruff County. Certainly a bit unusual for the 4th of July. There was also an EF1 tornado in Jonesboro yesterday.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on July 04, 2017, 06:54:57 PM
Been a good day here.  Nearly an inch of rain fell, but it occurred early in the morning, then again late this afternoon.  Nevertheless, I had plenty of dry time during the day to grill out and serve food to friends who stopped by for the 4th.  It's currently pouring the rain yet again, but it kept us pleasantly cool all day long despite the humidity.  I just put a large fan on the deck, and it made it comfortable during the afternoon heat (if you can call it that compared to last year).

Happy Independence Day!!
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: BRUCE on July 04, 2017, 07:07:20 PM
bring me a 594 heat ridge... im so ready for real summer to get here... hope euro is on to something long range... :D
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on July 04, 2017, 08:47:48 PM
bring me a 594 heat ridge... im so ready for real summer to get here... hope euro is on to something long range... :D

Move to Texas or the desert Southwest. 
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 04, 2017, 09:27:15 PM
Move to Texas or the desert Southwest.
AMEN.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: BRUCE on July 05, 2017, 04:16:06 AM
Move to Texas or the desert Southwest.
this is the southeast... were hot humid and dry spells are VERY common... maybe you should consider moving to seattle washington... ::whistling::
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on July 05, 2017, 05:42:57 AM
this is the southeast... were hot humid and dry spells are VERY common... maybe you should consider moving to seattle washington... ::whistling::

80's are normal for here in eastern TN, and I'm quite happy with that, thank you. 

I consider yesterday a perfect day.  Plenty of sun, heat (normal 80's) and humidity that ended with a strong storm that we watched from the front porch.  Nature's fireworks. 




Post Merge: July 05, 2017, 07:20:14 AM
Nature is about balance.  Dry, hot years are balanced with cool, wet years.  This year the pendulum has swung the other way from last year.  If every year was like last year's death ridge on top of us, the Southeast would be more like the Southwest, and that's not normal. 

So, live in the moment and enjoy this summer, and I'll do my best to enjoy the next year of drought and heat.    ;)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: StormNine on July 05, 2017, 08:55:37 AM
bring me a 594 heat ridge... im so ready for real summer to get here... hope euro is on to something long range... :D

2010-12 and last summer/fall give us enough of that to hold me for probably the rest of my life. Even good ole Seattle had to deal with 90s on a few occasions this summer and I'm sure they are over it as well.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on July 05, 2017, 09:49:04 AM
Quite the turn around from June for me precipitation-wise.  I recorded 1.54" yesterday, and up to 3.65" for July only 5 days in.  Trees and yards have a green lushness to them that was absent this time last year.  By now, last summer, fields were turning brown, and even large trees were losing leaves in the extreme heat.  I actually lost a very old hickory that didn't come back out this year.  Good to see a "cool change."

Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: bugalou on July 05, 2017, 01:16:41 PM
bring me a 594 heat ridge... im so ready for real summer to get here... hope euro is on to something long range... :D

You can take the 594 dm ridge and put it in your 600 dm back side.  ;D  I kid, I kid.
I never want heat.  Even as rainy as its been, its been hot enough and rain free enough to do most summer things.  Everyone was swimming most of the day yesterday where I was at before the rain came.

That said, the jet stream is going to have to calm down, but even then, the mesoscale picture this season has largely been responsible for a lot of the rain.  The shallow low to our NW that drove and will drive a lot of the rain yesterday and today is a left over MCV the broadened and deepened from all the daily MCS activity.  Just like the heat, the rain can get in a positive feedback loop in the summer months.  With no huge synoptic scale cold fronts to wipe the slate clean it leaves all these mesoscale boundaries that fire more MCSs that create more boundaries.  Combine this with the the thermodynamic energy from all the super humid hot air from high soil moisture and the summer sun you can get a bit of positive feedback.  I doubt it will last all summer, but the longer it does last, the more staying power it will have until the polar jet heads south for the fall.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: NashRugger on July 05, 2017, 01:45:26 PM
With the available moisture content, it's going to be fairly tough to break above the mid-90s unless a death ridge sets up in the southern Plains and migrates eastward. Even Dallas is having a mild summer so far, only hitting 100 once so far.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: dwagner88 on July 05, 2017, 02:29:01 PM
It has rained every day since my son was born on June 30. I could use a break to mow the grass. It's been way too wet to cut and it's growing at a springtime rate.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on July 06, 2017, 09:59:32 AM
Had quite a line of storms gusting out as they collapsed yesterday around 4 pm.  Several large trees were downed on my road.  Only .22” of rain fell, but the wind was impressive.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: cgauxknox on July 06, 2017, 10:41:35 AM
Had quite a line of storms gusting out as they collapsed yesterday around 4 pm.  Several large trees were downed on my road.  Only .22” of rain fell, but the wind was impressive.
That line got pretty rough when it came through Knoxville, although it didn't reach warning status.  A big tree was down close to me when I went out after the line had passed that thankfully fell into the owners' yard rather than across a busy street.  This really does feel like the traditional Tennessee summers I'm used to; humid, overcast, and storms most afternoons.  I hope it leads to us getting a real fall season with moderate temperatures and good color on the trees.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: BRUCE on July 06, 2017, 11:18:45 AM
Humidity feels great... wish temps were bout 10 to 15 degrees higher... perfect workout weather .... . Semper  fi
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: ClarkW on July 06, 2017, 01:38:08 PM
http://www.wbbjtv.com/2017/07/06/crews-assess-carroll-county-storm-damage/

EF-1 tornado confirmed in southern Carroll County here in the West yesterday afternoon.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: dwagner88 on July 06, 2017, 04:58:11 PM
Humidity feels great... wish temps were bout 10 to 15 degrees higher... perfect workout weather .... . Semper  fi
Why don't we have a dislike button?
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: NashRugger on July 06, 2017, 06:25:02 PM
Humidity feels great... wish temps were bout 10 to 15 degrees higher... perfect workout weather .... . Semper  fi
Marines? My god, that says A LOT...
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: BRUCE on July 06, 2017, 06:53:49 PM
http://www.wbbjtv.com/2017/07/06/crews-assess-carroll-county-storm-damage/

EF-1 tornado confirmed in southern Carroll County here in the West yesterday afternoon.
yep... about 5 miles north of me...
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 06, 2017, 08:38:39 PM
GFS even spitting out fantasy storms in summer.

(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017070618/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_51.png)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: WXHD on July 07, 2017, 05:40:47 AM
My first vacation in years and the bullseye us right where we'll be.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on July 07, 2017, 07:00:33 AM
Last night was probably one of more warm, humid nights of this summer so far.  Felt like a sauna outside around 3 a.m. when I looked outside during a downpour that woke me up.  Hopefully, we’ll have a few days of more comfortable humidity levels by Sunday & Monday as another northwest flow briefly sets up.

I love the long days of summer.  The twilight lasting to almost 10 p.m is something I enjoy.  However, there have been many summers I wanted to see end due to the oppressive heat and humidity & lack of rain that withered anything green.  2007, 2011-12 & 2016 come to mind.  It’s good to have a summer where I can actually enjoy the long days and not wish them away for cooler, autumn breezes. 
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: NashRugger on July 07, 2017, 08:58:13 AM
GFS even spitting out fantasy storms in summer.

(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017070618/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_51.png)
Some folks, not on here, already reaching on this. IT'S 15 DAYS OUT! ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Crockett on July 07, 2017, 12:00:33 PM
Last night was probably one of more warm, humid nights of this summer so far.  Felt like a sauna outside around 3 a.m. when I looked outside during a downpour that woke me up.  Hopefully, we’ll have a few days of more comfortable humidity levels by Sunday & Monday as another northwest flow briefly sets up.

I love the long days of summer.  The twilight lasting to almost 10 p.m is something I enjoy.  However, there have been many summers I wanted to see end due to the oppressive heat and humidity & lack of rain that withered anything green.  2007, 2011-12 & 2016 come to mind.  It’s good to have a summer where I can actually enjoy the long days and not wish them away for cooler, autumn breezes.

We need about 5 years of oppressive heat and humidity to make up for this disastrous summer.  ::)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: BRUCE on July 07, 2017, 12:19:53 PM
We need about 5 years of oppressive heat and humidity to make up for this disastrous summer.  ::)
Euro says. Hello heat....
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Crockett on July 07, 2017, 02:01:50 PM
Euro says. Hello heat....

I'll believe it when I see it. The GFS has been consistently building heat ridges after truncation, only to lose them. Summers like this rarely flip this late in the season.

Not that I want oppressive heat, or even above-normal heat of any kind. But I would like some consistently dry weather, and if that means heat, I'll take it.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on July 07, 2017, 02:22:41 PM
We need about 5 years of oppressive heat and humidity to make up for this disastrous summer.  ::)

Not that I judge, but some peeps on here are just cray cray.    ;D
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Crockett on July 07, 2017, 02:47:40 PM
Not that I judge, but some peeps on here are just cray cray.    ;D

I know, right! I've always wondered what drives the mindset of people who root for rain everyday. I imagine them with translucent skin, sitting in front of their computer incessantly staring at weather models and never venturing outside to enjoy the fresh air.   :)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on July 07, 2017, 03:02:08 PM
I know, right! I've always wondered what drives the mindset of people who root for rain everyday. I imagine them with translucent skin, sitting in front of their computer incessantly staring at weather models and never venturing outside to enjoy the fresh air.   :)

Perhaps aliens really have landed from a distant water world.   ;)

In all seriousness, it really hasn't been as bad over this way in terms of too much rain.  June was about half of normal here (2.06").  We just boarded the rain train as of this week.  After several deluges this week, I think we're good now. 

Sometimes the rain spigot shuts off in these types of summers about mid-August.  Hopefully for water logged areas that will be the case this year.   

Post Merge: July 07, 2017, 05:22:27 PM
Looks like an awesome evening.  Sunshine in abundance, and despite the humidity, a good breeze is blowing for a change.  Time to stoke the grill and spend the night on the deck under the oak tree listening to the tree frogs (not to mention the chorus of the Katydids--   https://youtu.be/ybKV-7z0jGc). 
 
I sure can't complain about this summer so far, especially with 2016 still fresh in my memory!

Happy Friday ya'll !

Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on July 07, 2017, 10:38:22 PM
We priced a sprinkler system this spring- more than I wanted to pay, at least right now. So, I had to commit to keeping the grass watered. It's been nice to not have to do much of that with frequent rains lately.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on July 08, 2017, 07:36:36 AM
Looks like a decent day to take a drive into southeast TN and figure out a place to view to eclipse next month.  A lot depends on the weather that day, but right now heading down Hwy 411 toward Madisonville or Tellico Plains.  Hoping to find some out of way place on a back road, as the major highways will probably be congested. 
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: dwagner88 on July 09, 2017, 09:11:56 AM
After 9 days in a row with rain, I'm expecting today to be dry finally. I'm getting the convertible out.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on July 10, 2017, 07:55:44 AM
Late evening sun yesterday.  The July sun sets slowly...and it was a perfect evening to enjoy it. 

(http://i64.tinypic.com/11kwq5c.jpg)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on July 10, 2017, 08:53:16 AM
Nice photo.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on July 10, 2017, 09:07:15 AM
Nice photo.

Thanks.  With fronts moving through this summer on a regular basis, we haven't had the typical stagnant haze that builds up over time.  It's been nice to enjoy such clear, blue skies and bright sunsets even in mid-summer.   
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Crockett on July 10, 2017, 08:03:26 PM
We received three times our normal rainfall for July in just the first eight days of the month. But summer has finally arrived for this week. I'm gonna bottle some up and send it to JayCee.  ::flag::
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: snowdog on July 10, 2017, 09:46:12 PM
We received three times our normal rainfall for July in just the first eight days of the month. But summer has finally arrived for this week. I'm gonna bottle some up and send it to JayCee.  ::flag::

Yeah, I'm mowing my yard once a week still.  Usually by now I'm at twice a month.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: cgauxknox on July 11, 2017, 05:50:58 AM
Yeah, I'm mowing my yard once a week still.  Usually by now I'm at twice a month.
Once a week is still almost not enough in the valley; about 5 days is all I can give mine before it starts threatening to overtake the house.  This is a major change from last year where every 14 days or so I'd take the mower out to knock down the tall weeds and stir the dust.  I'll take a damp summer over a drought any time.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on July 11, 2017, 07:00:18 AM
We received three times our normal rainfall for July in just the first eight days of the month. But summer has finally arrived for this week. I'm gonna bottle some up and send it to JayCee.  ::flag::

 ::applause::   ::blowtorch:: Glad summer has finally arrived for ya my friend.  Two (and possibly 3) 90 degree days on tap starting today.  Enjoy!  8)

This time last year, I believe Knoxville had already seen 14 days above 90.  This year only 2--so far.  I will do my best to refrain from complaining about it.    ;D


Post Merge: July 11, 2017, 07:32:53 AM
Bring on summer.  I'm ready!  For that, and the mosquitoes!   >:D


(http://i64.tinypic.com/2h5ljz4.jpg)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: skillsweather on July 11, 2017, 11:08:35 AM
::applause::   ::blowtorch:: Glad summer has finally arrived for ya my friend.  Two (and possibly 3) 90 degree days on tap starting today.  Enjoy!  8)

This time last year, I believe Knoxville had already seen 14 days above 90.  This year only 2--so far.  I will do my best to refrain from complaining about it.    ;D


Post Merge: July 11, 2017, 07:32:53 AM
Bring on summer.  I'm ready!  For that, and the mosquitoes!   >:D


(http://i64.tinypic.com/2h5ljz4.jpg)
What about wasp and bees and spiders them are the scary stuff outside. Mosquitoes are just annoying like flys and nats.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: dwagner88 on July 11, 2017, 12:04:00 PM
The long range GFS is HOT. High temps between 98 and 103 after day 7 through truncation. It may not get quite that hot due to high soil moisture, but that same soil moisture is going to make the humidity much worse.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 11, 2017, 12:05:04 PM
What about wasp and bees and spiders them are the scary stuff outside. Mosquitoes are just annoying like flys and nats.
No. Mosquitoes are the devil.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on July 11, 2017, 01:31:39 PM
No. Mosquitoes are the devil.

Agreed!!  I live near a pond, and I have them bad starting about June.  I've tried different sprays and outdoor foggers with limited success.  I bought that giant fan in the picture late last week, and I haven't been bitten any night since.  It literally blows them away.  I can finally enjoy Tennessee summer nights without that annoying buzzing in my ear!
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: WXHD on July 11, 2017, 08:41:05 PM
Agreed!!  I live near a pond, and I have them bad starting about June.  I've tried different sprays and outdoor foggers with limited success.  I bought that giant fan in the picture late last week, and I haven't been bitten any night since.  It literally blows them away.  I can finally enjoy Tennessee summer nights without that annoying buzzing in my ear!

I use Talstar-p. It's a non-selective insecticide. I have dozens of trees that need to be protected from bag worms. I don't exactly enjoy putting down a broad spectrum pesticide but, ain't no bug bites in my yard.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Crockett on July 11, 2017, 11:27:03 PM
I don't mind mosquitoes too much. I can put up enough Citronella torches to buy myself some peace when I'm enjoying an evening outside.

On the other hand, this is the time of year when I become as nervous as the proverbial long-tailed cat in the room of rocking chairs when I'm mowing grass. I'm constantly waiting for the other shoe to drop. I know the yellow jacket nests are there (I have quite a few fruit trees and find several nests in my yard every year). I just don't know where they're at.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Beth on July 12, 2017, 08:43:13 AM
Agreed!!  I live near a pond, and I have them bad starting about June.  I've tried different sprays and outdoor foggers with limited success.  I bought that giant fan in the picture late last week, and I haven't been bitten any night since.  It literally blows them away.  I can finally enjoy Tennessee summer nights without that annoying buzzing in my ear!
Lol! That is a heck of a fan. I bet it blows your hair straight back too!  I should invest in one that size! Mosquitoes are not to bad yet here but we have a horrible batch of "no see um" bugs!  I have never been appealing to bugs but those little devils have tore me up this year! I think the bug spray that I spray on attracts them! I hope we get a good enough cold spell this winter to kill those annoying pests!  :-\
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on July 12, 2017, 02:49:55 PM
Lol! That is a heck of a fan. I bet it blows your hair straight back too!  I should invest in one that size! Mosquitoes are not to bad yet here but we have a horrible batch of "no see um" bugs!  I have never been appealing to bugs but those little devils have tore me up this year! I think the bug spray that I spray on attracts them! I hope we get a good enough cold spell this winter to kill those annoying pests!  :-\

Yes, I don't need mother nature to get some wind action on the porch now. ;D  I can tolerate heat and humidity if there is a decent breeze, but we're in the doldrums this time of year.  The only breeze comes with a storm most of the time.  I love spending time on the deck during summer weekends, and rarely go inside.  This bad boy makes me feel like I'm on the beach with my own personal sea breeze.  As an added bonus, the no-see-ums can't even get close.  I should've got one a long time ago.

Good area of storms on the plateau today.  Also a few storms in the mountains.  Pretty typical summer afternoon. 



Post Merge: July 13, 2017, 07:02:12 AM
Looks like the atmosphere is priming the pump early today.  Thunderheads already going up at daybreak, so we'll probably see better coverage of storms this afternoon as forecast by the NWS.  Already a few lights showers popping in Sevier Co this morning. 

(http://i68.tinypic.com/znraz7.jpg)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: wfrogge on July 13, 2017, 08:56:30 AM
looks like the death ridge is fully in place for the next month. Time to bake  ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on July 13, 2017, 10:44:54 AM
looks like the death ridge is fully in place for the next month. Time to bake  ::blowtorch::

Just in time for the dog days. 
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Crockett on July 13, 2017, 10:52:24 AM
The GFS is pretty ridiculous with the heat, post-truncation, and is very consistent with it. I've been skeptical of it this summer because it has constantly tried to put us in the oven in the long range and has constantly been wrong, but it has plenty of support this time.

CPC is still forecasting below-average temps centered over TN and the Mid-South for the same timeframe.  :o
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on July 13, 2017, 01:04:25 PM
A super hot death ridge wouldn't exactly fit the pattern we've been in lately, but August usually does bring the heat. 

In the meantime, you can clearly see the areas of convection on the Plateau from my vantage point well east of there in the Smoky foothills.  The storms are slowly spreading down into the Valley, so we could see them here during the evening. 

 
(http://i64.tinypic.com/1nxno6.jpg)

Post Merge: July 13, 2017, 03:06:03 PM
Interesting observation from MRX today:

Quote
LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
It`s hard to believe that we are in mid July and yet another
synoptic cold front is forecast to press south through the
Southern Appalachians during the long term. The boundary slips
into the area on Friday night into Saturday bringing an increase
in convection to the viewing area. The boundary shifts only slowly
south but could be clear of the southern part of the region near
the Georgia border by 12z Sunday; thus the slight and small chance
pops for a shower or thunderstorm in southern sections through
this period. The atmosphere apparently is not finished yet with
the active Eastern United States Summer of 2017 as another well
developed upper trough amplifies southward into the eastern third
of the of the nation bringing a chance for more showers and
thunderstorms in the Southern Appalachians mainly Monday into
Tuesday so applied the chance probability to account for this
possibility. The increased cloud cover and convective
possibilities argue for a slight reduction in max temps on
Saturday with only a small rise in the mercury on Sunday into
Monday. Intense Summer season heating and a rise in humidity
should result in a more uncomfortable Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on July 14, 2017, 02:21:55 PM
Like yesterday, I'm getting some really cool views of distant storms.  Classic towering cumulus and cumulonimbus. 

Strangely, there must be a stable layer or a cap in the Valley the last two days.  Both yesterday and today the storms simply die as the come off the Plateau. 

 (http://i65.tinypic.com/23lk12d.jpg)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: skillsweather on July 14, 2017, 04:40:22 PM
I sure hope I can luck out on a storm by tomorrow. No rain here all week small shower today but it barely wet the road even. And no good rain chances for awhile with 90+ temps its going to dry off fast. No big droughts to worry about but I dont want it to dry off to soon or its really going to get hot.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: SteveInSmyrna on July 14, 2017, 07:42:13 PM
Like yesterday, I'm getting some really cool views of distant storms.  Classic towering cumulus

 (http://i65.tinypic.com/23lk12d.jpg)

What is going on with those white dotted lines in both photos?  I've heard all the conspiracy theories about contrails / chemtrails but those are crazy. And the fact that they show up in photos that appear to be taken back to back is even more odd to me.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: harlequin on July 14, 2017, 09:23:25 PM
The area around the intersection of I240E/I40 in East Memphis has had remarkable consistency with getting a thunderstorm or heavy shower around rush hour many days this summer. I stayed late at my office today and we probably had 2-3" while nothing at my house.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on July 15, 2017, 08:25:11 AM
What is going on with those white dotted lines in both photos?  I've heard all the conspiracy theories about contrails / chemtrails but those are crazy. And the fact that they show up in photos that appear to be taken back to back is even more odd to me.

Just lights reflecting in the office window--super bright LED's.  At least that's my cover story.   ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on July 15, 2017, 09:53:49 AM
Activity over the last day or so has been very slow-moving, almost stationary.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: snowdog on July 15, 2017, 01:18:51 PM
A nice soaking rain again this morning. Has to be one of the wetter July's I can remember.  ::rain::
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: BRUCE on July 15, 2017, 01:42:42 PM
A nice soaking rain again this morning. Has to be one of the wetter July's I can remember.  ::rain::
get it while  we can.... 8)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: dwagner88 on July 15, 2017, 04:07:09 PM
Swing and a miss on the rain today. It was all around, but I only got 0.08" in the bucket at my house.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 15, 2017, 08:16:30 PM
Ended up with .84 yesterday. We are at 3.94 for the month at my house. We had 7.5 in June. Making the humidity down right awful.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: cbrentv3 on July 15, 2017, 09:39:54 PM
Saw these storms in the Jacksonville area this afternoon . (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170716/0194d56b48533fd0f1c3e4fd5343327c.jpg)


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: bigdog660 on July 16, 2017, 04:28:46 PM
Valley in east Tennessee didn't see much from these past 3 days. No rain to speak of except for yesterday where we had a trace. Temps in the upper 80's to 90.😓 Only 1.80" for July so far.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on July 17, 2017, 08:08:29 AM
I'm glad I got the super soaking back in early July, because rain chances look small until the weekend.  After a dry June, I've had 4.63" in July so far--most of it falling in the first week of the month. 

The biggest heat ridge of the summer (so far) sets up in the middle of the country this week.  Easy to see it on the latest 7 day QPF map--a big donut hole of no rain in the Plains, and the "ring of fire" around it.  Eastern TN may see some of that action by next weekend.   ::fingerscrossed::

(http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1500296585) 
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Crockett on July 17, 2017, 02:15:57 PM
The GFS is absolutely bone-dry for at least the next three days, with a huge question mark as to exactly how many of us will get any rain Friday-Sunday.

When is the last time we saw this much heat and humidity but such low rain chances for a solid week? When the pattern decided to flip, she certainly flipped.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: harlequin on July 17, 2017, 05:47:36 PM
The GFS is absolutely bone-dry for at least the next three days, with a huge question mark as to exactly how many of us will get any rain Friday-Sunday.

When is the last time we saw this much heat and humidity but such low rain chances for a solid week? When the pattern decided to flip, she certainly flipped.

Last summer Memphis had a very hot and incredibly humid June (only 8 days below 90) with a little over an inch of rain. July and August were also very hot and humid, but very wet with over 8 inches of rain in July.

We're inching closer to my least favorite time of year here, when the heat overlaps with the dry season (not sure the dry season is quite as pronounced the further east you go in TN). I think I'm a little weird in that I actually prefer the heat if there's a chance of rain, even if it's humid, versus dry dog days of summer type heat. Nonetheless, I will complain about both every time I step outside.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on July 17, 2017, 07:55:52 PM
The hottest weather so far this summer is upon us, and climatologically right about on time.  Mid and upper 90's will be widespread across most areas below 1200' mid to late week.  It looks like a good weekend to head upward in elevation.  John Muir had the right idea when he said, the mountains are calling, and I must go

Post Merge: July 18, 2017, 08:19:53 AM
Looks like chances for storms increasing a bit for this weekend.  Most areas in Eastern TN will probably need some rain by then after the dry heat this week.

Quote
For this weekend and Monday, upper ridging slowly weakens as trough
over the Carolinas/southeast United States retrogrades south/then
west. The mid-level warm layer will move out of the area with
increasing moisture (PWs increasing to 1.7-1.9 inches). Increasing
moisture and instability will allow convection to increase in
coverage and intensity. Isolated strong/severe storms are possible
each afternoon/evening. Main concern being damaging winds, heavy
rainfall, and frequent lightning.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Curt on July 18, 2017, 08:35:11 AM
GFS transitions back to a wet cool pattern after the weekend. In fact, those long range promises of 100 + are long gone now, replaced by a cooler drier air mass and temps near 60 for lows by early August. While its possible, I just don't think this is the summer for long, dry extended periods of heat. The mid 90's- maybe a 97 or 98- pale in comparison to summer long upper 90's from last year.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: dwagner88 on July 18, 2017, 01:49:31 PM
Long range promises of 100+ are gone, but the GFS does have KCHA and KTYS hitting 100 on Friday afternoon. Looks like it would have BNA doing the same, except for a well timed thundershower.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: harlequin on July 18, 2017, 06:33:31 PM
Heat Index at KMEM hit 107 today. I'd guess that's the hottest this summer? Not bad.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 18, 2017, 08:45:09 PM
I can deal with this weather. It is summer and its supposed to be hot. 90s and HI around 105 is plenty hot enough. The day after day after day of 120 HI that we had last year is ridiculous.
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: BRUCE on July 19, 2017, 06:55:48 AM
My kind of weather... love it perfect pool weather to work on my tan... 8)
Title: Re: Summer 2017
Post by: JayCee on July 19, 2017, 09:49:37 AM
I can deal with this weather. It is summer and its supposed to be hot. 90s and HI around 105 is plenty hot enough. The day after day after day of 120 HI that we had last year is ridiculous.

Except for areas that have seen tons of rain (mainly west/middle TN), this is about as normal as summer can get for these parts. June may have been slightly below normal, but I'm not complaining.  Of course, "normal" is just averaging out the cool summers with the crazy hot summers like last year.  So, in truth, both cool & hot summers are "normal."