Not to stray from the topic, but there's another storm developing at 30N & 50W. Would this help weaken Maria?

Lowest Barometric Pressure : 29.98″ at 4 – 7 p.m.
Highest Barometric Pressure : 30.06″ at 9 – 11 a.m.

Lowest Relative Humidity : 44% at 3, 5 p.m.
Highest Relative Humidity : 100% at 12 – 4, 6 – 8 a.m., 11:59 p.m.

Lowest Dew Point Temperature : 65° at 5 a.m.
Highest Dew Point Temperature : 73° at 7 p.m.

Lowest Wind Speed : Calm at 12 – 10 a.m., 7, 9 – 11:59 p.m.
Highest Wind Gust : E – 12 m.p.h. at 3:01 p.m.

Lo : 67º
Normal : 56°
Record Warmest : 75°  In 1984 !
Record Coldest : 43° In 1953, 1995 & 1999 !

Hi : 94° Felt Like 96º at 3 p.m.
Normal : 81°
Record Hottest : 97°  In 2010 !
Record Coolest : 59° In 1975 !

Rainfall : 0.00″ : Daily Normal 0.13″

Record Wettest : 2.49″  In 1972 !

September`s Total To Date : 1.78″  : Normal : 2.47″, – 0.69″ Below Normal : In Bemis, TN 1.00″  started on the 12th

2017`s : Total to Date : 41.19″  : Normal : 38.34″, + 2.85″ Above Normal : In Bemis, TN 1.00″  started on the 12th

September 23, 2016 : Lo : 66º : Hi : 95º : Rainfall : 0.00″

September 23, 2015 : Lo : 51° : Hi : 88° : Rainfall : 0.00″

September 23, 2014 : Lo : 48° : Hi : 81° : Rainfall : 0.00”

September 23, 2013 : Lo : 51° : Hi : 84° : Rainfall : 0.00″

September 23, 2012 : Lo : 47° : Hi : 73° : Rainfall : 0.00”

September 23, 2011 : Lo : 53° : Hi : 73° : Rainfall : 0.13″

September 23, 2010 : Lo : 65° : Hi : 97º**    : Rainfall : 0.00″

September 23, 2009 : Lo : 70° : Hi : 81° : Rainfall : 1.01″

September 23, 2008 : Lo : 59º : Hi : 87º : Rainfall : 0.00″

West TN`s Coldest Lo 64º at Jackson, Tn`s Airport, Bolivar, Lexington, Paris & Savannah, TN.

West TN`s Hottest Hi 94º at University Village Apts. in North Jackson, TN.

U. S. Highest Temperature for Saturday, September 23, 2017
97º  at Camden Airport, AR
97º  at Kingsville, TX
97º  at McAllen, TX

U. S. Lowest Temperature for Saturday, September 23, 2017
6º  at Bodie State Park, CA 

The outer cone of uncertainty for the extended does include the Outer Banks, but the best guess forecast is still off shore. But, I would say E NC is within the realm of possibility if some model ensembles are trending that way.


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While unlikely in middle and western Tennessee, I'm concerned about drought once again rearing its ugly head over here in parts of eastern Tennessee.  We haven't had a good rain since 9/6 (in the foothills area), and after a week of dry heat, the next front bringing the cool, dry air offers little hope of precipitation on current model runs.  The top soil is already becoming dry (I found out while planting a new dogwood), so after another week of no rain, we'll definitely be entering the "abnormally dry" phase of drought development.  We haven't had nearly the amount of rain here as other areas of eastern Tennessee, and completely missed any significant rain with Irma thanks to downsloping winds over the mountains.  Considering October is normally our driest month, that's not good news in the short term.  Hopefully, November will bring "normal" precipitation, unlike last year. 

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Post Merge: Yesterday at 03:18:24 PM

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12Z GFS has frost worthy low temperatures in parts of the eastern Tennessee valley by 10/1.

were heading into the la nina enso stage... these tend to be on the drier side of things

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Post Merge: Today at 12:04:32 AM

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gfs starting to look torchy again in the long term

If you have weatherbell premium Joe D'Aleo has a great analog video for the upcoming winter. He compared depths and  pacific sea basin temps for La Niña winters that look most similar as of September as a guide- and we know that don't always work out perfectly. The 2 he felt were most similar to our upcoming winter were 2007-08 and 1995-96. Both had quite a bit of cold weather and winter storm opportunities- albeit the only real winter storm we had here in 2008 was in March. Nonetheless - interesting video.