Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Winter Weather => Topic started by: Curt on July 20, 2017, 11:15:39 AM

Title: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on July 20, 2017, 11:15:39 AM
I think it's appropriate to start since we are approaching excessive heat on the late July day. Go get 'em.

Weak modoki El Niņo conditions with last 2 winters in record warm territory?  Crossing fingers....
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on July 20, 2017, 11:35:47 AM
I think it's appropriate to start since we are approaching excessive heat on the late July day. Go get 'em.

Weak modoki El Niņo conditions with last 2 winters in record warm territory?  Crossing fingers....

Actually, I think we are very close to climatological peak of summer heat (about one month after solstice). If you look at climate records, as I recall, the daily averages begin to (albeit very sloooooowly at first) drop in late July. The climatological averages (as I recall, looking at this stuff in the past) will lose a degree or two over the next few weeks into August, before accelerating a downward trend as we head toward September. So, we could say that the descent into winter climatologically begins right about now.  ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on July 20, 2017, 01:46:08 PM
Actually, I think we are very close to climatological peak of summer heat (about one month after solstice). If you look at climate records, as I recall, the daily averages begin to (albeit very sloooooowly at first) drop in late July. The climatological averages (as I recall, looking at this stuff in the past) will lose a degree or two over the next few weeks into August, before accelerating a downward trend as we head toward September. So, we could say that the descent into winter climatologically begins right about now.  ;)

I'm waiting on someone to say " just look what you've done. It's all your fault".
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: cgauxknox on July 20, 2017, 02:21:39 PM
So, we could say that the descent into winter climatologically begins right about now.  ;)
I'll gladly take a descent into autumn for a while; it's been a long time since we had a good, colorful, crisp fall season in East TN.  I'm always a big fan when we do get one; the cooler air after a hot summer coupled with college football and all the great cooking that starts happening that time of year is almost magic.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Nashville_Wx on July 20, 2017, 03:25:21 PM
I would take a carbon copy of laster winter but a little bit cooler. I was lucky enough to make it back to Nashville for the 3" we had on March 11th. It was a nice welcoming home. Its impossibe to tell if our localized area will cash out. As I always love snow IMBY , its TN and we must be mobile.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on July 20, 2017, 07:29:32 PM
As a youngin', it was usually this time of the year my thoughts turned toward winter and snow.  Guess it must genetic if other people do the same thing.   :D ::snow::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on July 20, 2017, 09:53:36 PM
As a youngin', it was usually this time of the year my thoughts turned toward winter and snow.  Guess it must genetic if other people do the same thing.   :D ::snow::
when i was a young boy... my thoughts about this time year turned to football... and it still does... ::yum::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: cgauxknox on July 21, 2017, 06:26:39 AM
when i was a young boy... my thoughts about this time year turned to football... and it still does... ::yum::
Well, there's certainly not going to be any freeze for Ole Miss fans this season  ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on July 21, 2017, 08:47:21 PM
Football and winter snows are for sure in my thoughts. ::popcorn:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on July 22, 2017, 04:40:23 PM
Football, falling leaves, falling temperatures and tailgating all go hand in hand.  :)

Of course, most of my "tailgating" now happens on the deck these days.  ::yum::

Post Merge: July 22, 2017, 04:45:05 PM
I'm waiting on someone to say " just look what you've done. It's all your fault".

Well, you did skip autumn altogether, but o well.   ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 22, 2017, 08:25:02 PM
The modoki El Niņo has my attention. Let's see if Curt has the mojo this year.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on July 23, 2017, 07:45:05 AM
The modoki El Niņo has my attention. Let's see if Curt has the mojo this year.  ::fingerscrossed::
from what i have been reading from some good winter posters on other site... any type of el nino this winter seems to be fading...   neutral? :-\ l

Post Merge: July 23, 2017, 07:48:38 AM
I'm waiting on someone to say " just look what you've done. It's all your fault".
o, just wait... this will happen when were about 2 third of winter done...no snow and some torchy temps have occured >:D

Post Merge: July 23, 2017, 09:48:45 AM
just to sort of edit my last post bit...  curt to be honest... should be in all honest pretty safe from someone blaming you for a bad winter... cause you didnt label it as a epic winter, as we all know isnt going to happen again perhaps in our lifetime... someone had to start the topic... good time as any bud... ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: bugalou on July 23, 2017, 11:26:16 PM
This far out, I don't have much to go on except looking at our over all pattern year to date and extrapolation combined with past experience with midsouth weather and sea surface temp patterns.

That being said, right now my feeling is a cold mid to late fall, warm Dec and part of January, then a cold end to the winter.  It's hopeless to predict snow and winter weather, but I bet we see a minor shot of it late in the fall, and February is always the best time here for snow so it being cold then is ideal.

I will reply in a few months with something more scientific, but for the sake of discussion this is my best guess currently.

Sent from my P027 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: wfrogge on July 24, 2017, 01:11:35 PM
Jan 11th 2018 for a wicked mixed precipitation event over the west part of the state. Making the call now  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: StormNine on July 25, 2017, 07:32:35 PM
Quote
Ocean temperatures at the surface of the tropical Pacific are warm enough to meet the ocean threshold for El Niņo, but the atmosphere still hasn't reacted. According to the latest forecast, ENSO-neutral remains the most likely (50 to ~55% chance) outcome through Northern Hemisphere fall 2017
\

From NOAA.

It looks like it will be a Neutral although a Weak El-Nino cannot be completely ruled out. The PDO looks to be on the + side and the PNA, for the most part, has been + recently. If those stay on the + side then I think we have at least a decent shot for a respectable winter. 

One thing to always remember is that it only takes 1 or 2 events to make a winter. For a good deal of Middle TN and KY the winter of 15-16 was a snowy winter, but it was also a very warm winter overall.  The Winter of 13-14 was a classic cold winter, but the I-40 corridor from Memphis to Jackson to Nashville got shafted when it came to snow. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Coach B on July 26, 2017, 07:41:13 AM
\
One thing to always remember is that it only takes 1 or 2 events to make a winter. For a good deal of Middle TN and KY the winter of 15-16 was a snowy winter, but it was also a very warm winter overall.  The Winter of 13-14 was a classic cold winter, but the I-40 corridor from Memphis to Jackson to Nashville got shafted when it came to snow.

Good points. Jan 2014 at OHX had seven days with lows in the single digits and  was -5.3 for the month.  Grand total of 0.4" of snow to show for it.  ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on July 31, 2017, 06:19:30 PM
Most of our recent colder, snowier winters from 2013 to 2015 seemed to have one common factor--a warm pool of water in the north Pacific off of North America's west coast.  Additionally, most of those winters saw an absence of any prolonged -NAO/AO.  So, the warm water there turned out to be a bigger driver of cold in the East than the more talked about -NAO, as it pumped up a west coast ridge and a trough became locked in the East.  Last winter, that warm pool shrunk considerably--and a large area of cooler water appeared.  The west coast finally lost the ridge (and their drought), and we were mild.  Latest maps for June show mostly "normal" sea surface temperatures there.  I'm certainly no expert, but it might be important to watch what happens there between now and November/December. 


Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on August 18, 2017, 03:21:06 PM
JB's early prediction - colder than the last 2 winters but not as extreme as 14-15 or 13-14. Cold seems to be centered in the northern plains and looks to make intrusions into our area on several occasions with an early starts and coldest into January. Looks like a blocky pattern overall. November - February in TN- normal temps and above normal precip
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on August 19, 2017, 01:33:40 PM
JB's early prediction - colder than the last 2 winters but not as extreme as 14-15 or 13-14. Cold seems to be centered in the northern plains and looks to make intrusions into our area on several occasions with an early starts and coldest into January. Looks like a blocky pattern overall. November - February in TN- normal temps and above normal precip

Colder than last 2 winters is doable.   ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on August 19, 2017, 02:09:47 PM
Colder than last 2 winters is doable.   ::coffee::
which really isnt saying a whole lot.... ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on August 19, 2017, 03:12:46 PM
Colder than last 2 winters is doable.   ::coffee::

I thought his rationale was actually good this year. No hype but good basic facts. We have completely gone from models predicting a weak to moderate El Niņo to now a potential weak La Niņa or at least negative neutral. That usually pushes the cold air into the northern plains- should be easy access for our region for cold from time to time.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on August 19, 2017, 03:36:07 PM
I thought his rationale was actually good this year. No hype but good basic facts. We have completely gone from models predicting a weak to moderate El Niņo to now a potential weak La Niņa or at least negative neutral. That usually pushes the cold air into the northern plains- should be easy access for our region for cold from time to time.
yeah... i would be more concerned about ice this winter... be honest
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on August 20, 2017, 11:57:54 AM
I thought his rationale was actually good this year. No hype but good basic facts. We have completely gone from models predicting a weak to moderate El Niņo to now a potential weak La Niņa or at least negative neutral. That usually pushes the cold air into the northern plains- should be easy access for our region for cold from time to time.

Good points.  Anything would be an improvement since our Super Nino of two years ago, and last year's continued torching.  Having a cooler/wetter summer makes me optimistic that this winter will also at least be "normal," which puts a few Arctic outbreaks and snow chances on the table.  Also, you mentioned a "blocky" pattern from time to time, which has been sorely lacking in the last two winters.  All in all, I think we'll at least have more to track this time around. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on August 20, 2017, 04:37:52 PM
I thought his rationale was actually good this year. No hype but good basic facts. We have completely gone from models predicting a weak to moderate El Niņo to now a potential weak La Niņa or at least negative neutral. That usually pushes the cold air into the northern plains- should be easy access for our region for cold from time to time.
lot depends how strong the southeast ridge will get... more than not.. develops during any type nina....
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 21, 2017, 12:15:40 AM
lot depends how strong the southeast ridge will get... more than not.. develops during any type nina....
The SER is a big deal for Tn. A lot of times it is our friend on the west side but no so much for the rest of the state. The SER has a lot to do with the north of 40 deal. If it's a weak to neutral La Niņa we could very well be in the battle zone.