Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Winter Weather => Topic started by: Curt on July 20, 2017, 11:15:39 AM

Title: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on July 20, 2017, 11:15:39 AM
I think it's appropriate to start since we are approaching excessive heat on the late July day. Go get 'em.

Weak modoki El NiŮo conditions with last 2 winters in record warm territory?  Crossing fingers....
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on July 20, 2017, 11:35:47 AM
I think it's appropriate to start since we are approaching excessive heat on the late July day. Go get 'em.

Weak modoki El NiŮo conditions with last 2 winters in record warm territory?  Crossing fingers....

Actually, I think we are very close to climatological peak of summer heat (about one month after solstice). If you look at climate records, as I recall, the daily averages begin to (albeit very sloooooowly at first) drop in late July. The climatological averages (as I recall, looking at this stuff in the past) will lose a degree or two over the next few weeks into August, before accelerating a downward trend as we head toward September. So, we could say that the descent into winter climatologically begins right about now.  ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on July 20, 2017, 01:46:08 PM
Actually, I think we are very close to climatological peak of summer heat (about one month after solstice). If you look at climate records, as I recall, the daily averages begin to (albeit very sloooooowly at first) drop in late July. The climatological averages (as I recall, looking at this stuff in the past) will lose a degree or two over the next few weeks into August, before accelerating a downward trend as we head toward September. So, we could say that the descent into winter climatologically begins right about now.  ;)

I'm waiting on someone to say " just look what you've done. It's all your fault".
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: cgauxknox on July 20, 2017, 02:21:39 PM
So, we could say that the descent into winter climatologically begins right about now.  ;)
I'll gladly take a descent into autumn for a while; it's been a long time since we had a good, colorful, crisp fall season in East TN.  I'm always a big fan when we do get one; the cooler air after a hot summer coupled with college football and all the great cooking that starts happening that time of year is almost magic.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Nashville_Wx on July 20, 2017, 03:25:21 PM
I would take a carbon copy of laster winter but a little bit cooler. I was lucky enough to make it back to Nashville for the 3" we had on March 11th. It was a nice welcoming home. Its impossibe to tell if our localized area will cash out. As I always love snow IMBY , its TN and we must be mobile.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on July 20, 2017, 07:29:32 PM
As a youngin', it was usually this time of the year my thoughts turned toward winter and snow.  Guess it must genetic if other people do the same thing.   :D ::snow::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on July 20, 2017, 09:53:36 PM
As a youngin', it was usually this time of the year my thoughts turned toward winter and snow.  Guess it must genetic if other people do the same thing.   :D ::snow::
when i was a young boy... my thoughts about this time year turned to football... and it still does... ::yum::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: cgauxknox on July 21, 2017, 06:26:39 AM
when i was a young boy... my thoughts about this time year turned to football... and it still does... ::yum::
Well, there's certainly not going to be any freeze for Ole Miss fans this season  ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on July 21, 2017, 08:47:21 PM
Football and winter snows are for sure in my thoughts. ::popcorn:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on July 22, 2017, 04:40:23 PM
Football, falling leaves, falling temperatures and tailgating all go hand in hand.  :)

Of course, most of my "tailgating" now happens on the deck these days.  ::yum::

Post Merge: July 22, 2017, 04:45:05 PM
I'm waiting on someone to say " just look what you've done. It's all your fault".

Well, you did skip autumn altogether, but o well.   ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 22, 2017, 08:25:02 PM
The modoki El NiŮo has my attention. Let's see if Curt has the mojo this year.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on July 23, 2017, 07:45:05 AM
The modoki El NiŮo has my attention. Let's see if Curt has the mojo this year.  ::fingerscrossed::
from what i have been reading from some good winter posters on other site... any type of el nino this winter seems to be fading...   neutral? :-\ l

Post Merge: July 23, 2017, 07:48:38 AM
I'm waiting on someone to say " just look what you've done. It's all your fault".
o, just wait... this will happen when were about 2 third of winter done...no snow and some torchy temps have occured >:D

Post Merge: July 23, 2017, 09:48:45 AM
just to sort of edit my last post bit...  curt to be honest... should be in all honest pretty safe from someone blaming you for a bad winter... cause you didnt label it as a epic winter, as we all know isnt going to happen again perhaps in our lifetime... someone had to start the topic... good time as any bud... ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: bugalou on July 23, 2017, 11:26:16 PM
This far out, I don't have much to go on except looking at our over all pattern year to date and extrapolation combined with past experience with midsouth weather and sea surface temp patterns.

That being said, right now my feeling is a cold mid to late fall, warm Dec and part of January, then a cold end to the winter.  It's hopeless to predict snow and winter weather, but I bet we see a minor shot of it late in the fall, and February is always the best time here for snow so it being cold then is ideal.

I will reply in a few months with something more scientific, but for the sake of discussion this is my best guess currently.

Sent from my P027 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: wfrogge on July 24, 2017, 01:11:35 PM
Jan 11th 2018 for a wicked mixed precipitation event over the west part of the state. Making the call now  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: StormNine on July 25, 2017, 07:32:35 PM
Quote
Ocean temperatures at the surface of the tropical Pacific are warm enough to meet the ocean threshold for El NiŮo, but the atmosphere still hasn't reacted. According to the latest forecast, ENSO-neutral remains the most likely (50 to ~55% chance) outcome through Northern Hemisphere fall 2017
\

From NOAA.

It looks like it will be a Neutral although a Weak El-Nino cannot be completely ruled out. The PDO looks to be on the + side and the PNA, for the most part, has been + recently. If those stay on the + side then I think we have at least a decent shot for a respectable winter. 

One thing to always remember is that it only takes 1 or 2 events to make a winter. For a good deal of Middle TN and KY the winter of 15-16 was a snowy winter, but it was also a very warm winter overall.  The Winter of 13-14 was a classic cold winter, but the I-40 corridor from Memphis to Jackson to Nashville got shafted when it came to snow. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Coach B on July 26, 2017, 07:41:13 AM
\
One thing to always remember is that it only takes 1 or 2 events to make a winter. For a good deal of Middle TN and KY the winter of 15-16 was a snowy winter, but it was also a very warm winter overall.  The Winter of 13-14 was a classic cold winter, but the I-40 corridor from Memphis to Jackson to Nashville got shafted when it came to snow.

Good points. Jan 2014 at OHX had seven days with lows in the single digits and  was -5.3 for the month.  Grand total of 0.4" of snow to show for it.  ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on July 31, 2017, 06:19:30 PM
Most of our recent colder, snowier winters from 2013 to 2015 seemed to have one common factor--a warm pool of water in the north Pacific off of North America's west coast.  Additionally, most of those winters saw an absence of any prolonged -NAO/AO.  So, the warm water there turned out to be a bigger driver of cold in the East than the more talked about -NAO, as it pumped up a west coast ridge and a trough became locked in the East.  Last winter, that warm pool shrunk considerably--and a large area of cooler water appeared.  The west coast finally lost the ridge (and their drought), and we were mild.  Latest maps for June show mostly "normal" sea surface temperatures there.  I'm certainly no expert, but it might be important to watch what happens there between now and November/December. 


Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on August 18, 2017, 03:21:06 PM
JB's early prediction - colder than the last 2 winters but not as extreme as 14-15 or 13-14. Cold seems to be centered in the northern plains and looks to make intrusions into our area on several occasions with an early starts and coldest into January. Looks like a blocky pattern overall. November - February in TN- normal temps and above normal precip
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on August 19, 2017, 01:33:40 PM
JB's early prediction - colder than the last 2 winters but not as extreme as 14-15 or 13-14. Cold seems to be centered in the northern plains and looks to make intrusions into our area on several occasions with an early starts and coldest into January. Looks like a blocky pattern overall. November - February in TN- normal temps and above normal precip

Colder than last 2 winters is doable.   ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on August 19, 2017, 02:09:47 PM
Colder than last 2 winters is doable.   ::coffee::
which really isnt saying a whole lot.... ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on August 19, 2017, 03:12:46 PM
Colder than last 2 winters is doable.   ::coffee::

I thought his rationale was actually good this year. No hype but good basic facts. We have completely gone from models predicting a weak to moderate El NiŮo to now a potential weak La NiŮa or at least negative neutral. That usually pushes the cold air into the northern plains- should be easy access for our region for cold from time to time.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on August 19, 2017, 03:36:07 PM
I thought his rationale was actually good this year. No hype but good basic facts. We have completely gone from models predicting a weak to moderate El NiŮo to now a potential weak La NiŮa or at least negative neutral. That usually pushes the cold air into the northern plains- should be easy access for our region for cold from time to time.
yeah... i would be more concerned about ice this winter... be honest
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on August 20, 2017, 11:57:54 AM
I thought his rationale was actually good this year. No hype but good basic facts. We have completely gone from models predicting a weak to moderate El NiŮo to now a potential weak La NiŮa or at least negative neutral. That usually pushes the cold air into the northern plains- should be easy access for our region for cold from time to time.

Good points.  Anything would be an improvement since our Super Nino of two years ago, and last year's continued torching.  Having a cooler/wetter summer makes me optimistic that this winter will also at least be "normal," which puts a few Arctic outbreaks and snow chances on the table.  Also, you mentioned a "blocky" pattern from time to time, which has been sorely lacking in the last two winters.  All in all, I think we'll at least have more to track this time around. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on August 20, 2017, 04:37:52 PM
I thought his rationale was actually good this year. No hype but good basic facts. We have completely gone from models predicting a weak to moderate El NiŮo to now a potential weak La NiŮa or at least negative neutral. That usually pushes the cold air into the northern plains- should be easy access for our region for cold from time to time.
lot depends how strong the southeast ridge will get... more than not.. develops during any type nina....
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 21, 2017, 12:15:40 AM
lot depends how strong the southeast ridge will get... more than not.. develops during any type nina....
The SER is a big deal for Tn. A lot of times it is our friend on the west side but no so much for the rest of the state. The SER has a lot to do with the north of 40 deal. If it's a weak to neutral La NiŮa we could very well be in the battle zone.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on August 23, 2017, 06:52:47 PM
The SER is a big deal for Tn. A lot of times it is our friend on the west side but no so much for the rest of the state. The SER has a lot to do with the north of 40 deal. If it's a weak to neutral La NiŮa we could very well be in the battle zone.

A strong SER is a total buzz kill for anyone east of the Plateau.  A weak ridge can be a friend to all if a southern slider drops in and turns the corner in the right place. I think we had a few back in 09-10.  Of course, we also has some pretty strong episodes of a -NAO/AO back then, as well, if I recall.   

Good grief.  Why does that winter seem much more recent than 7 years ago??  Considering the next eclipse is 7 years away, I guess I better go ahead and book my hotel room.  It's closer than I thought.   
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: bugalou on August 25, 2017, 03:07:31 PM
yeah... i would be more concerned about ice this winter... be honest

I have said this for a few winters here in the Midsouth and it never panned out.  That said, Memphis and the immediate surrounding areas have not had a major freezing rain event in almost 25 years.  You have to go to Jonesboro or Dyersburg for evidence of a recent one.  The events that have happened in Memphis were largely WAA driven and therefore short lived.  A persistent, heavy event is going to happen again at some point. Ice storms are probably the most widespread impactful weather event the area here can have.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Cody on September 02, 2017, 05:05:09 PM
Bump


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on September 04, 2017, 10:09:02 AM
Does anyone foresee '17-'18 similar to '13-'14 and '14-'15?
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: StormNine on September 04, 2017, 01:19:07 PM
Does anyone foresee '17-'18 similar to '13-'14 and '14-'15?

With the potential for a weak La-Nina or cool neutral, I kinda see 17-18 to be more similar to 2000-01 or 2008-09, but a lot will depend on whether we can obtain ridging in or around the West Coast area like we had this summer and if we can finally get a wintertime -NAO or -AO.   
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on September 04, 2017, 03:38:55 PM
Where do you all go to look at the history of these winter seasons?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on September 04, 2017, 04:20:55 PM
Where do you all go to look at the history of these winter seasons?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

A lot of it is strictly from memory.  But for those of us in our 40's, memory isn't quite as reliable as it used to be.   ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Crockett on September 05, 2017, 12:14:47 AM
A lot of it is strictly from memory.  But for those of us in our 40's, memory isn't quite as reliable as it used to be.   ;)

You never forget the great ones! '93, '94 and '98 (the Big Three winter storms of my younger years) are etched in my memory forever. I didn't like the sheer devastation of the '98 dynamic cooling storm but what an awesome thing it was to experience.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on September 05, 2017, 06:28:50 AM
You never forget the great ones! '93, '94 and '98 (the Big Three winter storms of my younger years) are etched in my memory forever. I didn't like the sheer devastation of the '98 dynamic cooling storm but what an awesome thing it was to experience.

Very true.  I still lived in southeast KY in '98, and the 12-14 inches of very heavy, wet snow that fell during that snowstorm brought down as many pine trees as any ice storm could have.   Then there was the '93 Blizzard, followed up by an epic winter of 93-94.  Good, good times. 

Of course, 95-96 was an awesome winter as well, at least in Kentucky.   93-94 & 95-96 had to be the two top winters of the 90's for the Bluegrass state. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on September 05, 2017, 11:41:10 PM
With the potential for a weak La-Nina or cool neutral, I kinda see 17-18 to be more similar to 2000-01 or 2008-09, but a lot will depend on whether we can obtain ridging in or around the West Coast area like we had this summer and if we can finally get a wintertime -NAO or -AO.

I still had my pacifier in 2001, but I do remember the winter of 2008-2009 fairly well. Nashville got a surprise snowstorm in December and then another one to close out the winter in March of 2009. I also remember it being pretty cold that winter; our county delayed a school day due to below zero temps
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 05, 2017, 11:52:24 PM
**** I'm old  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on September 06, 2017, 04:35:18 AM
**** I'm old  ::rofl::
mean you werent using your pacifier in 2001 dyer...?  dont worry... i wasnt either :)... does look like the ridge starts to flatten out out west in the near future... bound to break down soon.... just in time for winter... watch ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on September 06, 2017, 06:03:36 AM
**** I'm old  ::rofl::

It's always better than the alternative.   ;D
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on September 17, 2017, 01:06:28 PM
Borrowed this from Chris Bailey's blog.  Euro snowfall from now through October.  As he said, if this pans out, we'll have a very healthy snowpack in Canada by Halloween.  Boo! ::evillaugh::

(http://kyweathercenter.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Euro-3-1.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on September 18, 2017, 11:47:22 AM
Montana to Iowa going be the sweet spot this winter.... affraid  the southeast ridge going flex its muscles this winter... .
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on September 18, 2017, 12:06:12 PM
Montana to Iowa going be the sweet spot this winter.... affraid  the southeast ridge going flex its muscles this winter... .
IF there's a SE ridge in a weak La Nina- that will probably be why we have an increased chance of winter weather here- think overrunning events and arctic air that makes a run southward- which it will.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on September 18, 2017, 12:18:05 PM
Considering we had a mega southeast ridge from the summer of 2016 through last winter/early spring, would make it somewhat less likely we'll see a repeat of a strong eastern ridge this winter.  The SR (Bermuda high) was almost a no-show this summer.  We are not in the same pattern as last winter. 
Title: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on September 18, 2017, 12:27:54 PM
I think he was referring to some comments on southern weather forum where the updated JMA showed a central US trough and overall milder SE. That's a definite Nina pattern. As long as it's not a strong La NiŮa, which most are not showing,  it's a really volatile pattern not unlike some of the analogs Stephen mentioned earlier. Best example is 84-85 where December was an unreal torch followed by 6 weeks of brutal winter. While I'm not banking on 6 weeks would not be surprised to see wild swings in weather in TN at least.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on September 18, 2017, 05:49:09 PM
While I'm not banking on 6 weeks would not be surprised to see wild swings in weather in TN at least.

I'll take it.  Wild swings, at least, aren't dullsville like last winter.  Heck, after last year, I'll take a winter like '14-'15 when there was no winter around here until mid-February, but that last two weeks of February more than made up for it.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on September 18, 2017, 11:56:45 PM
Wild swings can be a good thing in Tennessee. Weak SE ridge coupled with a weak Nina could spell overrunning event opportunities. Things could be looking a lot worse at this point, a long ways to go but I like the possibilities so far for some chances at winter weather at least. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on September 19, 2017, 04:18:48 AM
Wild swings can be a good thing in Tennessee. Weak SE ridge coupled with a weak Nina could spell overrunning event opportunities. Things could be looking a lot worse at this point, a long ways to go but I like the possibilities so far for some chances at winter weather at least. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
very true... wild swings can be a very good thing... ::twister::  what a big change in long range enso forecasting... just think.... not to long ago... we were looking at a weak nino this winter... not there is slightly better than a 50 50 chance were looking at a moderate  LA NINA... ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on September 19, 2017, 06:33:09 AM
very true... wild swings can be a very good thing... ::twister::  what a big change in long range enso forecasting... just think.... not to long ago... we were looking at a weak nino this winter... not there is slightly better than a 50 50 chance were looking at a moderate  LA NINA... ::coffee::


So far it's developing as an east based La NiŮa too- meaning increased chances of negative NAO. We will see how this thing develops.

Post Merge: September 19, 2017, 10:11:55 AM
Sept 17 JAMSTEC Winter Temp and Precip Forecast

(http://i66.tinypic.com/x5e7ba.gif)

(http://i63.tinypic.com/wiw6c.gif)

If that's what actually occurs, should be a weak La Nina with battle ground for warm/cold with ice and snow in the middle tier.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on September 19, 2017, 02:10:08 PM
I'll take anything after last winter. We had a week of frigid weather in early January followed by a torchfest.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: bugalou on September 20, 2017, 02:08:29 PM
I'll take anything after last winter. We had a week of frigid weather in early January followed by a torchfest.

Worth it for the summer we got.  I would make that trade most years.  Haven't been paying to close attention to things here for the 2012-15 winters as I was up north, but am I correct in assuming there have been no blockbusters in my absence? 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on September 20, 2017, 02:42:29 PM
Worth it for the summer we got.  I would make that trade most years.  Haven't been paying to close attention to things here for the 2012-15 winters as I was up north, but am I correct in assuming there have been no blockbusters in my absence?

No "blockbuster winters", per say, but several decent winters thrown in there.  At times eastern TN did well, at other times middle and west TN received some good snowfalls, and the eastern side and the plateau got ice.  The plateau was especially hard hit with an ice storm during one year.   

During the Super Nino, parts of western and middle TN got heavy snow, and our neighbors to the north in Kentucky were crushed with some huge snow totals.  Eastern TN missed out on that one for the most part. 

And others may think that there were some blockbuster winters during that time.  But my measuring stick for a blockbuster is '84-'85, so no--we didn't have a winter like that. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 20, 2017, 10:17:12 PM
IMBY we had some big events in that timeframe but no blockbusters over all. There were a couple years that a couple of degrees made the difference in so so and epic.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: bugalou on September 21, 2017, 10:09:35 AM
There were a couple years that a couple of degrees made the difference in so so and epic.
That is pretty much the story every year here in N. MS.  ::bangingheadintowall::
I still remember - I think it was 2011, maybe 2010 - when a storm dumped 6 inches here quickly overnight and then turned to light rain at sun up and then it drizzled and rained all day at 33 degrees.  I was so pissed that day I got in my truck and drove north to find the rain snow line.  I didn't have to go far - just in northern west Memphis,  less than 30 miles.

That is the way winters can go here though! Here's top hopinh 2017-18 is the 'big one'.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on September 21, 2017, 11:28:16 AM
That is pretty much the story every year here in N. MS.  ::bangingheadintowall::
I still remember - I think it was 2011, maybe 2010 - when a storm dumped 6 inches here quickly overnight and then turned to light rain at sun up and then it drizzled and rained all day at 33 degrees.  I was so pissed that day I got in my truck and drove north to find the rain snow line.  I didn't have to go far - just in northern west Memphis,  less than 30 miles.

That is the way winters can go here though! Here's top hopinh 2017-18 is the 'big one'.

lol temps in MN even make a difference. The difference there is they don't pout when it's rain.

You missed the "Shelby County Split Storm" of early March 2014. Talk about 2 different worlds- basically Narnia north and normal south.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: bugalou on September 21, 2017, 03:48:37 PM
Anyone from here going to take a stab at a forecast?  Haven't seen anyone mention it.  I have been out of the loop with the various global signals for the past couple months between my work and all the hurricanes to follow so I am not going to bother doing one this year.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mamMATTus on September 22, 2017, 06:54:37 AM
Has anyone been counting the number of fogs? I know at least here in middle TN we've had a bunch lately.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: cgauxknox on September 22, 2017, 07:43:15 AM
Has anyone been counting the number of fogs? I know at least here in middle TN we've had a bunch lately.
There do seem to be more than usual and some of them have been really heavy in Knoxville.  I was out on Fort Loudon Lake early Sunday and the fog was so bad we could barely move.  Combine virtually no visibility with lots of debris in the water and it was impossible to get anywhere until the weather lifted around 9:30.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on September 22, 2017, 09:09:35 AM
There do seem to be more than usual and some of them have been really heavy in Knoxville.  I was out on Fort Loudon Lake early Sunday and the fog was so bad we could barely move.  Combine virtually no visibility with lots of debris in the water and it was impossible to get anywhere until the weather lifted around 9:30.
that's fogs that are in August you count..... grandma always told me that...
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Crockett on September 22, 2017, 01:32:20 PM
that's fogs that are in August you count..... grandma always told me that...

I'm pretty sure that correlating September fogs to winter snows is just as accurate as correlating August fogs to winter snows.  ;D
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: cgauxknox on September 22, 2017, 03:05:33 PM
I'm pretty sure that correlating September fogs to winter snows is just as accurate as correlating August fogs to winter snows.  ;D
But...woolly worms and acorns....  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on September 22, 2017, 03:06:53 PM
I prefer the woolly worm method of winter forecasting.  It's the only way to go!   :)

http://www.woollyworm.com/ (http://www.woollyworm.com/)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on September 22, 2017, 05:34:22 PM
I straddle the Old Farmer's Almanac and Accuweather for winter forecasts. Very accurate method!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on September 23, 2017, 03:00:25 PM
If you have weatherbell premium Joe D'Aleo has a great analog video for the upcoming winter. He compared depths and  pacific sea basin temps for La NiŮa winters that look most similar as of September as a guide- and we know that don't always work out perfectly. The 2 he felt were most similar to our upcoming winter were 2007-08 and 1995-96. Both had quite a bit of cold weather and winter storm opportunities- albeit the only real winter storm we had here in 2008 was in March. Nonetheless - interesting video.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Jilly on September 25, 2017, 11:05:19 AM
I prefer the woolly worm method of winter forecasting.  It's the only way to go!   :)

http://www.woollyworm.com/ (http://www.woollyworm.com/)

The wooly worms I've seen here lately have been mostly black.  ::cold::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on September 25, 2017, 11:32:02 AM
If you have weatherbell premium Joe D'Aleo has a great analog video for the upcoming winter. He compared depths and  pacific sea basin temps for La NiŮa winters that look most similar as of September as a guide- and we know that don't always work out perfectly. The 2 he felt were most similar to our upcoming winter were 2007-08 and 1995-96. Both had quite a bit of cold weather and winter storm opportunities- albeit the only real winter storm we had here in 2008 was in March. Nonetheless - interesting video.
I take a winter 2007 2008 re do again ... if possible
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on September 26, 2017, 08:57:11 AM
The AO is in moderately negative territory, while we have record heat.  Hope it revisits negative land again this winter when we need it. 

(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on September 26, 2017, 06:18:27 PM
i know its very very early... but thus far... winter 1984-1985 ... this is how it all started... we torch pretty much like were doing till end december... then rest is history... ::cold:: looking long range stuff... after this cool down back to torch again... so lets hope we do torch like we did that winter... cause if you like winter... ones that are old enough to remember that winter... your are in for one h--l of a ride ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on September 26, 2017, 07:47:06 PM
i know its very very early... but thus far... winter 1984-1985 ... this is how it all started... we torch pretty much like were doing till end december... then rest is history... ::cold:: looking long range stuff... after this cool down back to torch again... so lets hope we do torch like we did that winter... cause if you like winter... ones that are old enough to remember that winter... your are in for one h--l of a ride ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::fingerscrossed::

My dad recalls the temperature dropping to -27 degrees Fahrenheit in Knoxville in January 1985. He said Knoxville recorded one of the coldest temperatures in the continental United States that day. As for me, I'm 20, so I cannot confirm that being true or not  ::shrug::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: skillsweather on September 26, 2017, 08:44:51 PM
What i like about weather (but sometimes it also frustrates me) is that we truely dont ever know whats going to happen. We have very educated guess's and statistics to point us in directions of what might and most likely will happen but it can always change in a blink of an eye just by one small detail changing. And with longer ranged forecast like a season over that even becomes more difficult and one small change in a detail can completely change the forecast. It seems we get what we can get and the most fun (for me anyways) is following the systems when they are happening because then the margin of error is much smaller and we know its happening (but even then one detail can change it all). It seems like every winter we always have at least one storm to follow that either gives some of us a decent hit or all of us or comes in as a major hit and the temp turns out to be to warm or to much dry air. So i think its safe to say no matter what the models or long range forecasters say, that we will at least have one decent storm to at least track. Im looking forward to it for sure!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: snowdog on September 26, 2017, 11:16:19 PM
i know its very very early... but thus far... winter 1984-1985 ... this is how it all started... we torch pretty much like were doing till end december... then rest is history... ::cold:: looking long range stuff... after this cool down back to torch again... so lets hope we do torch like we did that winter... cause if you like winter... ones that are old enough to remember that winter... your are in for one h--l of a ride ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::fingerscrossed::

I think Joe Bastardi hacked Bruce's account.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on September 27, 2017, 12:30:14 AM
i know its very very early... but thus far... winter 1984-1985 ... this is how it all started... we torch pretty much like were doing till end december... then rest is history... ::cold:: looking long range stuff... after this cool down back to torch again... so lets hope we do torch like we did that winter... cause if you like winter... ones that are old enough to remember that winter... your are in for one h--l of a ride ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::fingerscrossed::
I remember it like it was yesterday, I long for a repeat in my lifetime. Only rivals to 85 in my lifetime are 76 and 78. My first snow I ever remember well is 69, it fell on Christmas eve and we received 10 inches in Clarksville. I think that snow is what hooked me. I heard many good stories of winters in the 60's but I was too young to really remember much about them. ::popcorn:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on September 27, 2017, 06:19:14 AM
If memory serves, '84 had some pretty good cold snaps in November into the first week of December, when accumulating snow fell in Kentucky.  After that, the eastern U.S. torched until the first week of January '85, when the Arctic Express rolled back into town and stayed in earnest until mid-February.  That was the best 6 weeks of pure Winter Wonderland any snow lovin' weather geek could experience this far south.

Post Merge: September 27, 2017, 09:05:08 AM
Despite the record heat in our part of the world, patches of snow cover are starting to show up in other parts of the Northern Hemisphere as cold air makes an appearance in Asia thanks to the -AO. 

(http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_v3/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/NHem/2017/ims2017269.gif)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mempho on October 07, 2017, 08:36:41 PM
Anyone from here going to take a stab at a forecast?  Haven't seen anyone mention it.  I have been out of the loop with the various global signals for the past couple months between my work and all the hurricanes to follow so I am not going to bother doing one this year.
Sure-  I'm going with 46" for seasonal snowfall in Memphis

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 08, 2017, 11:59:31 AM
here's what we know so far-

ENSO= most likely weak La NiŮa
QBO= moderately negative - complete change from last winters positive
Solar cycle- low

I think this combo promotes a highly variable winter here. The long range models center the coldest air in the northern plains- typical of La NiŮa. In combination with the moderately negative QBO should produce periods of northern blocking- which we couldn't buy the last 2 winters. I think we could actually see some potentially bitter cold periods followed by moderating periods in between- thus what I think will be a variable winter. If you add in a major SSW like January 1985- all bets are off for more prolonged cold. I think we see 2-3 winter threats this go around - perhaps more on the icy side.

Winter 1950-51 was very similar as far as a second La NiŮa winter following an albeit much weaker El NiŮo. Overall the winter was slightly above normal but had 2 major winter storms for Tennessee(and one minor). One was the great Appalachian November snow storm which blanketed the entire state with snow in late November followed by record cold. It remained cold into early December with one more sleet and snow event before warming back up all the way thorough January. In fact it was into the 60's and 70's for much of January before one of the most epic winter storms on state history occurred in late January and early February. An arctic air mass bled south and stalled over the apps- leaving major amounts of sleet and snow mostly over west and middle TN. Memphis and Nashville went down below -10 to end the event. There was one more cold period in mid march with 2 more snows statewide- one producing 7 inches at Nashville.

And keep in mind- October and early November 1950 torched before the variability started.

So all that in mind- we could end up normal or even above normal temps with quite a bit of variability in between.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 08, 2017, 03:22:41 PM
What worries me is that the cold spells in the eastern U.S. during the recent "good" winters (09-10, 13-14, 14-15) could just be flukes. While we were colder during those winters, much of the rest of the world was experiencing above normal temperatures.  It appears we were colder only because of the anomalous trough over our area caused by a warm pool of water off of northwestern North America for much of that time.  Is that the only way we can have a "normal" winter anymore? 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: snowdog on October 08, 2017, 09:23:20 PM
here's what we know so far-

ENSO= most likely weak La NiŮa
QBO= moderately negative - complete change from last winters positive
Solar cycle- low

I think this combo promotes a highly variable winter here. The long range models center the coldest air in the northern plains- typical of La NiŮa. In combination with the moderately negative QBO should produce periods of northern blocking- which we couldn't buy the last 2 winters. I think we could actually see some potentially bitter cold periods followed by moderating periods in between- thus what I think will be a variable winter. If you add in a major SSW like January 1985- all bets are off for more prolonged cold. I think we see 2-3 winter threats this go around - perhaps more on the icy side.

Winter 1950-51 was very similar as far as a second La NiŮa winter following an albeit much weaker El NiŮo. Overall the winter was slightly above normal but had 2 major winter storms for Tennessee(and one minor). One was the great Appalachian November snow storm which blanketed the entire state with snow in late November followed by record cold. It remained cold into early December with one more sleet and snow event before warming back up all the way thorough January. In fact it was into the 60's and 70's for much of January before one of the most epic winter storms on state history occurred in late January and early February. An arctic air mass bled south and stalled over the apps- leaving major amounts of sleet and snow mostly over west and middle TN. Memphis and Nashville went down below -10 to end the event. There was one more cold period in mid march with 2 more snows statewide- one producing 7 inches at Nashville.

And keep in mind- October and early November 1950 torched before the variability started.

So all that in mind- we could end up normal or even above normal temps with quite a bit of variability in between.

Nice write up Curt, enjoyed the read.  ::guitar::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on October 09, 2017, 06:40:08 AM
here's what we know so far-

ENSO= most likely weak La NiŮa
QBO= moderately negative - complete change from last winters positive
Solar cycle- low

I think this combo promotes a highly variable winter here. The long range models center the coldest air in the northern plains- typical of La NiŮa. In combination with the moderately negative QBO should produce periods of northern blocking- which we couldn't buy the last 2 winters. I think we could actually see some potentially bitter cold periods followed by moderating periods in between- thus what I think will be a variable winter. If you add in a major SSW like January 1985- all bets are off for more prolonged cold. I think we see 2-3 winter threats this go around - perhaps more on the icy side.

Winter 1950-51 was very similar as far as a second La NiŮa winter following an albeit much weaker El NiŮo. Overall the winter was slightly above normal but had 2 major winter storms for Tennessee(and one minor). One was the great Appalachian November snow storm which blanketed the entire state with snow in late November followed by record cold. It remained cold into early December with one more sleet and snow event before warming back up all the way thorough January. In fact it was into the 60's and 70's for much of January before one of the most epic winter storms on state history occurred in late January and early February. An arctic air mass bled south and stalled over the apps- leaving major amounts of sleet and snow mostly over west and middle TN. Memphis and Nashville went down below -10 to end the event. There was one more cold period in mid march with 2 more snows statewide- one producing 7 inches at Nashville.

And keep in mind- October and early November 1950 torched before the variability started.

So all that in mind- we could end up normal or even above normal temps with quite a bit of variability in between.

I can ask my 90-y-o grandmother to this day about the winter of '51 and get a day by day retelling of the events. She also always talked about a Thanksgiving when it was mild out and then suddenly a cold wind blew in, and they had several inches of snow. I've figured out this was the Great Apps Storm of '50. But, the ice storm/blizzard of '51 is especially vivid for her.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on October 09, 2017, 08:29:06 AM
Any analog used beyond year 1885. Can be missleading.... due to climate change unfortunately....
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Crockett on October 09, 2017, 08:36:22 AM
Any analog used beyond year 1885. Can be missleading.... due to climate change unfortunately....

No.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 09, 2017, 08:54:12 AM
Any analog used beyond year 1885. Can be missleading.... due to climate change unfortunately....

1885? Lol

NOAA already accounts for climate change in their 30 year normal adjustments. Can you elaborate on rationale for 1985 being the basis and how would you compensate for climate change for a forecast? Respected Long range mets use lots of pre 1985 analogs to make a forecast by looking at SSTís in the pacific and Atlantic.

Post Merge: October 09, 2017, 11:13:58 AM
What worries me is that the cold spells in the eastern U.S. during the recent "good" winters (09-10, 13-14, 14-15) could just be flukes. While we were colder during those winters, much of the rest of the world was experiencing above normal temperatures.  It appears we were colder only because of the anomalous trough over our area caused by a warm pool of water off of northwestern North America for much of that time.  Is that the only way we can have a "normal" winter anymore?

I think what your referring to is the PDO (pacific decadonal oscillation). the positive PDO phase usually means a "warm blob" over the Northeast Pacific basin. All of the winters you mentioned did in fact have a positive PDO phase. I can also find tons of cold winters in TN where there was a negative PDO including 50-51, and the brutal winter of 17-18. I think the PDO will be fairly neutral this year.

PDO and QBO can fluctuate- but they are both overall trends and tend to stay in one phase for quite some time. A strong ENSO phase can totally overwhelm all other factors- including PDO and QBO- as it did in 2015-16. IMO- it takes awhile for climate to re adjust from something that large. There was a global spike in temps but now they're coming back down.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on October 09, 2017, 11:31:39 AM
Just like I said . Some are in denial....
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 09, 2017, 11:36:04 AM
Just like I said . Some are in denial....

Iíve never denied climate change. Thatís proven over and over.

Global warming is what I think youíre argument is based on and is a separate subject matter altogether. I was asking how did you choose 1985 as a basis and also- if you believe in global warming- how would you scientifically account for it in choosing an analog?
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 09, 2017, 11:59:16 AM

Post Merge: October 09, 2017, 11:13:58 AM
I think what your referring to is the PDO (pacific decadonal oscillation). the positive PDO phase usually means a "warm blob" over the Northeast Pacific basin. All of the winters you mentioned did in fact have a positive PDO phase. I can also find tons of cold winters in TN where there was a negative PDO including 50-51, and the brutal winter of 17-18. I think the PDO will be fairly neutral this year.

PDO and QBO can fluctuate- but they are both overall trends and tend to stay in one phase for quite some time. A strong ENSO phase can totally overwhelm all other factors- including PDO and QBO- as it did in 2015-16. IMO- it takes awhile for climate to re adjust from something that large. There was a global spike in temps but now they're coming back down.

Thanks for the info!  I'm not well versed on the other oceanic phases out there.  Glad there are other factors that can influence our winter besides the "blob."  ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 09, 2017, 12:43:58 PM
The climate is always changing and always has been. As far as global warming I don't buy it all. I look back at old record high and low temps and it is obvious that there have always been high and low swings in temp and weather. Nothing changes like the weather, stick around long enough and you will see plenty. I am certainly no expert and don't know as much as many on this board but I don't buy global warming at all. There have always been periods of warming and cooling. The world will end when God wants it too not because of some global warming. JMHO! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 09, 2017, 02:57:34 PM
(http://i64.tinypic.com/2vkcojm.png)

Courtesy of WeatherBell- this is a great graphic showing the difference between west based and east based La Nina. This will be an east based year.


(http://i66.tinypic.com/10znzfc.png)
Courtesy of WeatherBell, this is another great graphic when you add the east or west based QBO- positive and negative with low solar activity. The bottom left was basically last winter. This winter should look more like the top left.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 09, 2017, 03:19:43 PM
I'll leave the global warming debate on the shelf, and whether its man-made or not.  Arguments on both sides have merit, and I'll leave it at that.

What has happened in my lifetime is a definite warm "spell."  Growing up in the 80's, it wasn't too unusual to have temperatures plunging well below zero during winter. There were at least 4 years in that decade that had Arctic outbreaks of that caliber. It happened a few times in the 90's ('94 &'96), but outside of those winters, most in the 90's were mild to outright warm.  From 2000-2008 the mild to warm winters continued, except for 2003 that saw some "decent" cold weather.  After the recent few winters that began to show promise, and even one that saw a return to below zero temperatures (something that shouldn't be so infrequent --> http://www.weather.gov/jkl/2013warmwinterstreak (http://www.weather.gov/jkl/2013warmwinterstreak)), I was hoping that maybe a pattern change had taken place.  But the Super Nino of two years ago seems to have thrown a wrench into that, as we've been mostly above normal every month since (save for this past summer.)  I guess a lot hinges on the upcoming winter.  If its another torch-fest of well-above normal temperatures, then perhaps the recent colder winters were a fluke in an overall warm spell that has been continuing for over two decades now.  Graph below illustrates this well:

(http://www.weather.gov/images/jkl/Headline_Images/2013/2013MinTLOZ.jpg)
Title: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 09, 2017, 09:17:02 PM
I'll leave the global warming debate on the shelf, and whether its man-made or not.  Arguments on both sides have merit, and I'll leave it at that.

What has happened in my lifetime is a definite warm "spell."  Growing up in the 80's, it wasn't too unusual to have temperatures plunging well below zero during winter. There were at least 4 years in that decade that had Arctic outbreaks of that caliber. It happened a few times in the 90's ('94 &'96), but outside of those winters, most in the 90's were mild to outright warm.  From 2000-2008 the mild to warm winters continued, except for 2003 that saw some "decent" cold weather.  After the recent few winters that began to show promise, and even one that saw a return to below zero temperatures (something that shouldn't be so infrequent --> http://www.weather.gov/jkl/2013warmwinterstreak (http://www.weather.gov/jkl/2013warmwinterstreak)), I was hoping that maybe a pattern change had taken place.  But the Super Nino of two years ago seems to have thrown a wrench into that, as we've been mostly above normal every month since (save for this past summer.)  I guess a lot hinges on the upcoming winter.  If its another torch-fest of well-above normal temperatures, then perhaps the recent colder winters were a fluke in an overall warm spell that has been continuing for over two decades now.  Graph below illustrates this well:

(http://www.weather.gov/images/jkl/Headline_Images/2013/2013MinTLOZ.jpg)

I wonít go into the global warming debate either since itís politicized

Another piece of the puzzle is the North Atlantic SST, called the AMO or Atlantic Multidecadanol Oscillation. Iím no expert but the warm phase is associated with warmer eastern winters and vice versa with the colder phase. The colder phases have a marked increase in arctic sea ice- which Iím going to assume increases surface area for arctic air masses. Here a good graphic:

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171010/c41fc604442491fc9248c6117fc4d09b.png)

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171010/0a49f1608455d39368fd912d0c8e1b0f.png)

You can trace the long colder and thus snowier winters of the 60ís, 70ís, and 80ís in a cold phase. Weíve been in a warm phase since 1996 - and most models flip it negative over the next 3-5 years. Perhaps thereís part of your answer although there have certainly been severe winters in the warm phase- just not as many as the cold.

Final thought here- one size doesnít fit all. Sometimes it seems one of the players- enso, qbo, pdo, and amo donít work out like we think due to one having prevalence over another. Itís not an exact science- but one we can at least make some assumptions about given past experience.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 09, 2017, 10:27:39 PM
Some very good stuff Curt. You bring up some important factors imo. I like the east based QBO and I think the AMO is a really really big deal when it comes to winter weather.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 10, 2017, 07:49:22 AM
Appreciate the insight Curt!  I'll have to ask questions more often.   ::guitar::

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 10, 2017, 07:57:30 AM
Some very good stuff Curt. You bring up some important factors imo. I like the east based QBO and I think the AMO is a really really big deal when it comes to winter weather.
I concur great reads.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 11, 2017, 08:03:40 AM
After studying Curt's graphs further, it appears the Ohio and TN Valleys are in the battle zone between the colder north and the mild southeast with an east based La Nina.  One benefit of that will be plenty of precipitation, unlike the west-based La Nina that would probably bring a dry winter (like 2007), so that's a good thing.  As far as winter weather goes, I'd say Kentucky, and parts of northern and far western Tennessee would be in the best position, but this set-up screams "ICE" to me with many over-running events.  If that's they case, I hope it stays to our north.  I'll take plain-Jane rain over ice any day.

Thanks again for posting the good reads for the upcoming winter possibilities, Curt.  I've been doing some reading up on the QBO, AMO, and some of the lesser know acronyms out there.  It gave me something to do while at home recovering from a wicked cold.  Nothing on TV but more political ::poo::   ;D
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Charles L. on October 11, 2017, 08:13:10 AM
Normally the OH and TN valleys are the battleground zone for winter mischief. Hopefully we get more cold air intrustions this time around!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 11, 2017, 09:18:55 AM
Normally the OH and TN valleys are the battleground zone for winter mischief. Hopefully we get more cold air intrustions this time around!

I'm normally a peaceful dude, but this is one war I'm pullin' for!!   ::evillaugh::

(http://study.com/cimages/multimages/16/weatherfronts.jpg)

Sorry, I'm a little buzzed from the Nyquil.  Dang cold!   ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on October 11, 2017, 10:51:51 AM
I'm normally a peaceful dude, but this is one war I'm pullin' for!!   ::evillaugh::

(http://study.com/cimages/multimages/16/weatherfronts.jpg)

Sorry, I'm a little buzzed from the Nyquil.  Dang cold!   ;)

Whoever made that map could have at least used realistic looking frontal boundaries (just sort of slapped them on there).  ;)

That would be one weird looking weather map. A backwards bulging cold front (which would seem to imply a westward movement), with a large warm front coming out of the Rockies, stretching from Canada to nearly Mexico seem to be heading toward each other.

Something like this might happen if the earth fell off its axis... or something.  8)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 11, 2017, 11:15:19 AM
After studying Curt's graphs further, it appears the Ohio and TN Valleys are in the battle zone between the colder north and the mild southeast with an east based La Nina.  One benefit of that will be plenty of precipitation, unlike the west-based La Nina that would probably bring a dry winter (like 2007), so that's a good thing.  As far as winter weather goes, I'd say Kentucky, and parts of northern and far western Tennessee would be in the best position, but this set-up screams "ICE" to me with many over-running events.  If that's they case, I hope it stays to our north.  I'll take plain-Jane rain over ice any day.

Thanks again for posting the good reads for the upcoming winter possibilities, Curt.  I've been doing some reading up on the QBO, AMO, and some of the lesser know acronyms out there.  It gave me something to do while at home recovering from a wicked cold.  Nothing on TV but more political ::poo::   ;D
I really think if things fall in place that this could be one of those years where the term north of 40 came from. I agree with the battleground. Question is where will it set up .
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 11, 2017, 11:24:29 AM
Whoever made that map could have at least used realistic looking frontal boundaries (just sort of slapped them on there).  ;)

That would be one weird looking weather map. A backwards bulging cold front (which would seem to imply a westward movement), with a large warm front coming out of the Rockies, stretching from Canada to nearly Mexico seem to be heading toward each other.

Something like this might happen if the earth fell off its axis... or something.  8)

LOL!  I promise, even with my Nyquil, I didn't make that map!  ::rofl::  It did appear to be two "battle fronts" going to war, so appropriate, though impossible! haha ;D  Reminds me of my high school days back in study hall.  I usually doodled my time away drawing some mega snow storm...cold front, warm front, and the occluded front of a mature blizzard.  Most people didn't have a clue what I was doodling. lol

Despite the intense cold I'm struggling with, I'm enjoying time on the deck watching the leaves fall all around me.  Very relaxing and peaceful.  Guess it ain't all bad.  Feeling blessed.  ::cough::

(https://tse2.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.lg6vuY_9TIcfDO49gnKoBgEsCo&w=300&h=168&c=7&qlt=90&o=4&pid=1.7)

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 11, 2017, 06:32:01 PM
I really think if things fall in place that this could be one of those years where the term north of 40 came from. I agree with the battleground. Question is where will it set up .
That will mean many late nights and early mornings on this forum sweating it out. OH YEAH BRING IT ON!!!!! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on October 11, 2017, 06:55:09 PM
That will mean many late nights and early mornings on this forum sweating it out. OH YEAH BRING IT ON!!!!! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
make a big difference were things set up at... snow storm... ice storm... or even a severe weather event... ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 12, 2017, 10:11:14 AM
make a big difference were things set up at... snow storm... ice storm... or even a severe weather event... ::coffee::
I'm fully aware of that.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: snowdog on October 12, 2017, 01:15:08 PM
Another piece of the puzzle is the North Atlantic SST, called the AMO or Atlantic Multidecadanol Oscillation. Iím no expert but the warm phase is associated with warmer eastern winters and vice versa with the colder phase. The colder phases have a marked increase in arctic sea ice- which Iím going to assume increases surface area for arctic air masses. Here a good graphic:

You can trace the long colder and thus snowier winters of the 60ís, 70ís, and 80ís in a cold phase. Weíve been in a warm phase since 1996 - and most models flip it negative over the next 3-5 years. Perhaps thereís part of your answer although there have certainly been severe winters in the warm phase- just not as many as the cold.

Final thought here- one size doesnít fit all. Sometimes it seems one of the players- enso, qbo, pdo, and amo donít work out like we think due to one having prevalence over another. Itís not an exact science- but one we can at least make some assumptions about given past experience.

Is there any way to tease out outcomes by differentiating between a warmer than average fall or a cooler than average fall? Looks like this fall is going to be quite warm.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on October 12, 2017, 01:40:31 PM
Is there any way to tease out outcomes by differentiating between a warmer than average fall or a cooler than average fall? Looks like this fall is going to be quite warm.

Would be interesting to see if so. Anecdotally, I can remember some cold winters that followed mild falls, and conversely, mild winters that followed colder-than-average falls. I suspect findings might be inconclusive overall though.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 12, 2017, 03:26:07 PM
I don't know about Autumn as a whole, but I've observed many a cold November be followed up by a cold winter.  Was it in 2013 that we had several cold snaps in November, and even snow around Thanksgiving in the area?  That winter ended up cold ('13-'14).  Sometimes a cold November is followed by a mild December, then a return to cold in January.  That happened in '84-'85.  November was cold, we torched in December, but we all know how that winter turned out.

Just a thought.  I'm sure there are many exceptions, but a cold November can be a prelude for a cold winter.  Of course, we had a very warm November last year, and as we know, winter skipped us altogether. 

EDIT:  I just found this on a NWS site concerning November 2013: 

Quote
ēBelow-average temperatures were present for a majority of the contiguous U.S. east of the Rockies. Above-average temperatures were present for the Southwest, as well as Florida. No state had November temperatures ranking among the ten warmest or coolest.

Here is where the quote came from: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201311 (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201311)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 12, 2017, 03:53:42 PM
Would be interesting to see if so. Anecdotally, I can remember some cold winters that followed mild falls, and conversely, mild winters that followed colder-than-average falls. I suspect findings might be inconclusive overall though.

Here are a few October/ November temps for analog years- all La Nina Winters which all followed with some significant cold/winter weather at some point.

October 1950
Memphis +5.3
Nashville  +3.9
Knoxville +3.7

November 1950
Memphis -3.8
Nashville -6.5
Knoxville  -3.8

December 1950
Memphis -5.0
Nashville -6.0
Knoxville  -4.6

January 1951
Memphis 3.0
Nashville 1.2
Knoxville 3.2

Feb 1951- above normal despite epic ice and snow storm at beginning and below 0 temps
Memphis 1.1
Nashville 0.1
Knoxville 2.3

October 1984
Memphis +5.5
Nashville  +6.5
Knoxville  +8.1

November 1984
Memphis -0.4
Nashville  -2.5
Knoxville  -2.5

December 1984
Memphis +10.5
Nashville  + 8.6
Knoxville  +6.4

January 1985
Memphis -7.2
Nashville  - 9.3
Knoxville  -8.8

February 1985
Memphis -2.9
Nashville  -3.3
Knoxville  -4.4



October 2010
Memphis +2.5
Nashville  +1.2
Knoxville  +1.2

November 2010
Memphis +1.2
Nashville  +1.2
Knoxville  +2.0

December 2010
Memphis -4.2
Nashville  -6.1
Knoxville  -7.8

January 2011
Memphis -1.0
Nashville  -2.4
Knoxville  -1.6

February 2011
Memphis +2.3
Nashville  +2.4
Knoxville  +4.4


Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: snowdog on October 12, 2017, 04:43:14 PM
Interesting how both 50 and 84 flipped the pattern from Oct to Nov.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 12, 2017, 05:18:35 PM
Interesting how both 50 and 84 flipped the pattern from Oct to Nov.

Went back and added Dec-Jan-Feb of those years to the stats which shows lots of variability- in some cases Dec 84- Jan 85 was incredibly volatile.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 12, 2017, 05:35:09 PM
Went back and added Dec-Jan-Feb of those years to the stats which shows lots of variability- in some cases Dec 84- Jan 85 was incredibly volatile.

You are very correct.  I lived in southeast KY during that time, and I remember late November into the first few days of December being cold, with several inches of snow in early December.  The rest of December was spring-like with 60's and 70's.  The last week of December, severe storms and flooding rains occurred, and the stormy weather lasted into the New Year.  That bout of heavy rain and severe weather was the turning point toward much colder weather that lasted into February.

Not even counting the epic cold & snow, weather that fall into winter was incredibly volatile.  Wild swings in temperatures, heavy rain, severe storms and flooding occurred in December.  I'll take a winter like that.  I don't mind a torch for a few days if it's followed up by a 30 degree temperature drop and snow.  I remember that happening on more than one occasion that winter.

I found an interesting comment about the '85 cold wave on Wikipedia:
Quote
The Winter 1985 cold wave[1] was a meteorological event, the result of the shifting of the polar vortex further south than is normally seen.[1] Blocked from its normal movement, polar air from the north pushed into nearly every section of the eastern half of the United States and Canada, shattering record lows in a number of areas.[1] The event was preceded by unusually warm weather in the eastern U.S. in December 1984, suggesting that there was a build-up of cold air that was suddenly released from the Arctic, a meteorological event known as a Mobile Polar High, a weather process identified by Professor Marcel Leroux.[2]

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on October 12, 2017, 06:17:00 PM
Went back and added Dec-Jan-Feb of those years to the stats which shows lots of variability- in some cases Dec 84- Jan 85 was incredibly volatile.
yeah... december 31st 1984  newyears eve night... we had a severe outbreak... tornado warnings in area... that was the big system that actually changed the pattern to a brutal winter....
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 12, 2017, 09:10:14 PM
yeah... december 31st 1984  newyears eve night... we had a severe outbreak... tornado warnings in area... that was the big system that actually changed the pattern to a brutal winter....

There was actually a strat  warming event that eventually coincided with the entire polar vortex coming down mid month. The entire state was below 0 and Knoxville went to -24. Even after the cold continued until mid February. After that it warmed up and we never went below 32 again.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 12, 2017, 09:14:37 PM
yeah... december 31st 1984  newyears eve night... we had a severe outbreak... tornado warnings in area... that was the big system that actually changed the pattern to a brutal winter....

There was actually a strat  warming event that eventually coincided with the entire polar vortex coming down mid month. The entire state was below 0 and Knoxville went to -24. Even after the cold continued until mid February. After that it warmed up and we never went below 32 again.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 13, 2017, 12:13:58 AM
There was actually a strat  warming event that eventually coincided with the entire polar vortex coming down mid month. The entire state was below 0 and Knoxville went to -24. Even after the cold continued until mid February. After that it warmed up and we never went below 32 again.
I remember the set up well. I remember the severe weather out in front of it. I was 20 years old and man that was a great beer drinking sled riding winter. I remember being on Riverside Dr. in downtown Clarksville with a friend in his 4 wheel drive. We had about 8 inches of snow on the ground and it was snowing quarter size flakes. There was nobody out in Clarksville, not another vehicle on the road. We stopped in the middle of town and got out and walked around in the middle of the intersection in downtown Clarksville. It was so quiet, no tracks on the road but ours. It was kind of a surreal moment, I wish we would have had a camera for pictures. We were there 15 minutes and it was like we were the only ones in Clarksville. I will never forget that winter. LOL!!!!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 13, 2017, 07:15:00 AM
Being as it was in the mid 1980's, there were multiple surprise events that winter as well.  I remember one in particular during the big cold wave event in January.  The Arctic front bringing the bitter cold air was originally forecast to only have an inch or two of snow accompany it.  However, late in the afternoon a low pressure developed along the front in Oklahoma, causing the front to slow and moisture to overrun the boundary.  We ended up with 6 inches of snow, and thanks to the cold and more snow to follow, we had snow on the ground for nearly 3 weeks straight.  Longest I've personally ever seen that happen.

I don't mean to drone on and on about '85.  Guess this ole fella can't help but wax nostalgic when thinking about it. 

Post Merge: October 13, 2017, 07:40:30 AM
On a different note--snow cover has rapidly increased in parts of Asia, and has also begun to spread over parts of northern North America. 

(http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_v3/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/NHem/2017/ims2017285.gif)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 13, 2017, 09:31:05 AM
The rain and storms around New Years of 85 had the backwater out. We were duck hunting the morning of the first big snow. It snowed about 6 inches and temps crashed. The snow created 6 inches of slush on the water and it froze as the day went on. That boat ride took forever to get back to the truck. Lots of ducks died in the making of this story.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 16, 2017, 09:19:26 AM
(http://i68.tinypic.com/i3rwh2.gif)

Latest CFS2 precip forecast for winter
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 16, 2017, 09:59:43 AM
(http://i68.tinypic.com/i3rwh2.gif)

Latest CFS2 precip forecast for winter

That is good news.  I was concerned about drought with La Nina making an appearance.  Furthermore, can't have snow without moisture. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on October 16, 2017, 11:47:24 AM
(http://i68.tinypic.com/i3rwh2.gif)

Latest CFS2 precip forecast for winter
too bad it's showing temps above normal ... guess we can't have both
..
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: snowdog on October 16, 2017, 12:47:01 PM
too bad it's showing temps above normal ... guess we can't have both
..

(https://i.imgflip.com/xxbgd.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 16, 2017, 02:35:33 PM
too bad it's showing temps above normal ... guess we can't have both
..
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171016/545382f4878c2891952587c7655b608b.png)

Thereís the CFS2 temps- thatís not a torch by any means especially given warm bias. Should be the potential for some cold outbreaks in this scenario.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 16, 2017, 02:40:08 PM
Looks a lot better than what the CFS2 did at this point in 13-14 and 14-15.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171016/53dbe37c2dfc3b189266f2bfe11f6426.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 16, 2017, 04:26:43 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171016/545382f4878c2891952587c7655b608b.png)

Thereís the CFS2 temps- thatís not a torch by any means especially given warm bias. Should be the potential for some cold outbreaks in this scenario.

That's for sure with the well-below normal temperatures lurking just over the U.S.-Canadian border.  Lots of potential there with any amount of Greenland blocking.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 17, 2017, 05:45:37 PM
I hope against hope that we have a good Winter, and it starts SOON

Between the Big Orange football season, and the continued political circus that never ends, I need a distraction.  There is no drink strong enough to help at this point. . .   ::cliff::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 17, 2017, 07:15:59 PM
I hope against hope that we have a good Winter, and it starts SOON

Between the Big Orange football season, and the continued political circus that never ends, I need a distraction.  There is no drink strong enough to help at this point. . .   ::cliff::
Sure there is.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on October 17, 2017, 09:04:08 PM
Sure there is.

We shall show him the way lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 17, 2017, 09:05:05 PM
Sure there is.

Maybe. . .

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gIQRsLWd1w4/T6U7obTrrNI/AAAAAAAAJwE/l86U36Wgi54/s1600/Top+5+Strongest+Alcoholic+Drinks+in+the+World+everclear.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on October 17, 2017, 09:07:18 PM
Maybe. . .

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gIQRsLWd1w4/T6U7obTrrNI/AAAAAAAAJwE/l86U36Wgi54/s1600/Top+5+Strongest+Alcoholic+Drinks+in+the+World+everclear.jpg)

If that don't do it, it should come close.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 17, 2017, 09:11:33 PM
If that don't do it, it should come close.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Lol...I would reserve that one for when a snowstorm strikes west & middle Tennessee, Kentucky, the plateau and the mountains, while the Great Valley of east Tennessee gets a dusting. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on October 17, 2017, 11:18:16 PM
I miss every big snowstorm we ever got. I'm either in Nashville or Knoxville, and the other city gets the snow whenever there's a big event. And I missed many of the snows from the 2000s when I lived in Germany  ::rant::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 18, 2017, 06:51:41 AM
I miss every big snowstorm we ever got. I'm either in Nashville or Knoxville, and the other city gets the snow whenever there's a big event. And I missed many of the snows from the 2000s when I lived in Germany  ::rant::

Everyone here feels your pain.  We've all been there one time or another. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Charles L. on October 18, 2017, 08:41:23 AM
Anyone else every go back and read through old threads about events? I do it around this time every year and look at the winter ones. I can't wait for this season! Last season was so dreadful that any sizeable (2-4" snow) event will be great!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 18, 2017, 09:25:53 AM
Anyone else every go back and read through old threads about events? I do it around this time every year and look at the winter ones. I can't wait for this season! Last season was so dreadful that any sizeable (2-4" snow) event will be great!

Yes!  Like going back through a weather journal and reliving the moment.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on October 18, 2017, 12:01:27 PM
Anyone else every go back and read through old threads about events? I do it around this time every year and look at the winter ones. I can't wait for this season! Last season was so dreadful that any sizeable (2-4" snow) event will be great!
2 to 4in.  Keep it.... like they say at the gym... go big or go home... ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Charles L. on October 18, 2017, 12:08:33 PM
2 to 4in.  Keep it.... like they say at the gym... go big or go home... ;)

You know me Bruce, I never pass up snow!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on October 18, 2017, 12:15:26 PM
The first meteorological event that piqued my interest in weather was a snowstorm that hit most of continental northern Europe in the mid-2000s (I think it was 2006, but I can't really remember). I was living in Stuttgart, Germany at the time and remember waking up one morning to several inches of wet snow on the ground with heavy wet flakes still coming down. As a kid, there was nothing more exciting than waking up to snow that you never knew was coming. After that I would always try to find the best available weather forecasts during the winter because I was so eager for the next big snowfall. That defeats the purpose of being surprised by snow on the ground, but it's still just as exciting to track a big storm.

And it's not just Tennessee; so many snowstorms that were forecast to produce several inches or more in southern Germany were usually just rain with a dusting on the back end of the system. Thanks to elevation, Switzerland and Austria always got all the snow and we HATED that  ::rofl:: And then once the system met colder air, which was always east of us, the Czech Republic and Poland would receive significant snowfall. It was like living in the valley here in East Tennessee and seeing everything surrounding you cash in while the Plateau disintegrates the system.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 18, 2017, 02:21:47 PM
There were several surprises in the late 70s. Dave Brown was famous for forecasting flurries to a dusting and we would wake up to a winter storm. The biggest surprise that I can remember was I think Christmas of 1993. No mention of snow and woke up to 4 inches. That was awesome.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Eric on October 18, 2017, 04:27:43 PM
There were several surprises in the late 70s. Dave Brown was famous for forecasting flurries to a dusting and we would wake up to a winter storm. The biggest surprise that I can remember was I think Christmas of 1993. No mention of snow and woke up to 4 inches. That was awesome.

Said no wife or girlfriend.  Ever. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on October 18, 2017, 04:59:24 PM
Said no wife or girlfriend.  Ever.

LOL
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: harlequin on October 18, 2017, 09:40:41 PM
There were several surprises in the late 70s. Dave Brown was famous for forecasting flurries to a dusting and we would wake up to a winter storm. The biggest surprise that I can remember was I think Christmas of 1993. No mention of snow and woke up to 4 inches. That was awesome.

I don't think there was a snow this far south (Memphis) that year at Christmas.

Dave Brown was fairly conservative until he retired in my opinion. Not in a particularly problematic way, but he held back on winter events. I really remember him underforecasting March 2008.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 19, 2017, 12:49:11 AM
There were several surprises in the late 70s. Dave Brown was famous for forecasting flurries to a dusting and we would wake up to a winter storm. The biggest surprise that I can remember was I think Christmas of 1993. No mention of snow and woke up to 4 inches. That was awesome.
I remember 93, that was a total surprise. in the 70's Tom Siler was every kids favorite in middle tn. He predicted a few storms way before everyone else and really got popular during the 76-79 period. But it faded. Bill Hall was very good at seeing patterns with winter weather in our area. It was fun watching them back then in that era. I remember during the winters of the mid to late 70's and all 3 stations would sometimes have different forecast. Technology wasn't as good and they would go out on a limb much more with their forecast. It was good entertainment for winter weather lovers.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 19, 2017, 07:20:32 AM
One of the things I miss about life "back in the day" are the surprise weather events.  Thanks to the internet and access to up- to-the-minute radar and short range model updates like the HRRR, NAM and others, good surprises are few and far between these days.  I'm not complaining about access to that information--it makes for fun winter nights staying up late watching a snow storm approach, but a bit of the wide-eyed wonder is lost when you can't be surprised anymore.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: NashRugger on October 19, 2017, 11:35:01 AM
Official NOAA winter forecast for our area is slightly wetter to equal chances of precip compared to normal but overall warmer than average. Typical pattern for what's in the Pacific.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: MrWonderful84 on October 19, 2017, 12:43:54 PM
The official NOAA forecast is not one to put much credit towards.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on October 19, 2017, 06:06:32 PM
Official NOAA winter forecast for our area is slightly wetter to equal chances of precip compared to normal but overall warmer than average. Typical pattern for what's in the Pacific.
cool.... hopefully we can cash in on some nice severe wx threats this winter also....  ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: harlequin on October 19, 2017, 10:57:42 PM
One of the things I miss about life "back in the day" are the surprise weather events.  Thanks to the internet and access to up- to-the-minute radar and short range model updates like the HRRR, NAM and others, good surprises are few and far between these days.  I'm not complaining about access to that information--it makes for fun winter nights staying up late watching a snow storm approach, but a bit of the wide-eyed wonder is lost when you can't be surprised anymore.

February 2010 was a big surprise here. Around 6" in Midtown and up to 8" immediately north and south. February/March 2009 was a huge surprise as 12-18" fell from northeast AR through the northeastern Memphis metro. I think those are the biggest two since I have a good memory... so since 2000. No big surprise since then unless I'm forgetting something.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: NashRugger on October 19, 2017, 11:50:18 PM
The official NOAA forecast is not one to put much credit towards.
I don't, but was just putting it out that it was released.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 20, 2017, 07:41:40 AM
NOAA seems to have three winter weather outlooks.  One for El Nino, one for La Nina, and one that just paints Equal Chances/Above normal temperatures everywhere when neither is going on.  This year is just a copy/paste of their La Nina outlook--same as every other La Nina year.   :-\
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Cody on October 20, 2017, 09:55:45 AM
NOAA seems to have three winter weather outlooks.  One for El Nino, one for La Nina, and one that just paints Equal Chances/Above normal temperatures everywhere when neither is going on.  This year is just a copy/paste of their La Nina outlook--same as every other La Nina year.   :-\

Yea when they start talking global warming, they have to make it look like the earth is going to catch on fire.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on October 20, 2017, 10:09:36 AM
NOAA seems to have three winter weather outlooks.  One for El Nino, one for La Nina, and one that just paints Equal Chances/Above normal temperatures everywhere when neither is going on.  This year is just a copy/paste of their La Nina outlook--same as every other La Nina year.   :-\

NOAA just forecasts typical La Nina and El Ninos as if they are all the same. They don't seem to account for strength, location, etc


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on October 20, 2017, 11:59:16 AM
NOAA just forecasts typical La Nina and El Ninos as if they are all the same. They don't seem to account for strength, location, etc


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
ask California about fires.... bad
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on October 20, 2017, 12:01:59 PM
ask California about fires.... bad

Yeah I know about the fires. Been out there while it's been going on. All I'm saying not all El NiŮo's, La Ninas are the same.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on October 23, 2017, 04:46:51 PM
big time cooling taking place in the waters in pacific... per latest update... moderate la nina coming by winter? ::)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 23, 2017, 05:21:31 PM
big time cooling taking place in the waters in pacific... per latest update... moderate la nina coming by winter? ::)

Region 3.4 cooled to - 0.8 and has fluctuated back and forth between weak Nina and cool neutral for awhile. Its forecast to bottom out in December about where it is and slowly warm. 3.4 needs to be negative for 3 consecutive months for an official event. No model brings 3.4 into anything more than weak Nina territory before warming begins.

1.2 (east)  -1.4
3.0(central) -1.1
3.4(central)  -0.8
4.0 (western) -0.4

Its incredibly important to look at ALL regions and they're relationship to each other in an ENSO event. Last winter was a weak Nina- but with the western regions colder than the eastern ones. This winter is polar opposite of last in regards to SST with 1.2 significantly colder than the central and eastern basins. I think we end up with a weak Nina in 3.4 that is trumped by colder waters to its east. Analogs such as these are the ones that produce lots of variability in winter weather vs. anemic winter weather like last year.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: StormNine on October 23, 2017, 08:24:31 PM
Region 3.4 cooled to - 0.8 and has fluctuated back and forth between weak Nina and cool neutral for awhile. Its forecast to bottom out in December about where it is and slowly warm. 3.4 needs to be negative for 3 consecutive months for an official event. No model brings 3.4 into anything more than weak Nina territory before warming begins.

1.2 (east)  -1.4
3.0(central) -1.1
3.4(central)  -0.8
4.0 (western) -0.4

Its incredibly important to look at ALL regions and they're relationship to each other in an ENSO event. Last winter was a weak Nina- but with the western regions colder than the eastern ones. This winter is polar opposite of last in regards to SST with 1.2 significantly colder than the central and eastern basins. I think we end up with a weak Nina in 3.4 that is trumped by colder waters to its east. Analogs such as these are the ones that produce lots of variability in winter weather vs. anemic winter weather like last year.

Usually when you have back to back La Nina's the second one is almost always quite a bit different than the first (98-99 and 99-00 are the only exception to that rule that comes to mind) even though you may have the base La Nina pattern. 

1916-17 to 1917-18, 1983-84 to 84-85, and 2010-11 to 2011-12 all featured a second La Nina year that was quite a bit different than the first.   
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on October 23, 2017, 08:42:19 PM
I'll take an 84-85 please!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clint on October 24, 2017, 01:46:11 AM
I would love to experience another 1984 - 1985 type Winter. The Jan 3, 1985 storm is my all-time favorite. This storm caught my wife and I by complete surprise. I remember rain changed to snow around mid morning (10:00 AM) and snowed hard all that day. Memphis received anywhere from 10-12 inches. Also, this was a Daytime snow which made it that much better. Fun Winter!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 24, 2017, 08:19:19 AM
Dyer when you see this I sent you a private message. Here's to a great winter. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: joemomma on October 30, 2017, 07:44:55 AM
We had a few brief periods of some light mixed precipitation yesterday.  It was nice to see.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 30, 2017, 09:44:28 PM
Region 3.4 cooled to - 0.8 and has fluctuated back and forth between weak Nina and cool neutral for awhile. Its forecast to bottom out in December about where it is and slowly warm. 3.4 needs to be negative for 3 consecutive months for an official event. No model brings 3.4 into anything more than weak Nina territory before warming begins.

1.2 (east)  -1.4
3.0(central) -1.1
3.4(central)  -0.8
4.0 (western) -0.4

Its incredibly important to look at ALL regions and they're relationship to each other in an ENSO event. Last winter was a weak Nina- but with the western regions colder than the eastern ones. This winter is polar opposite of last in regards to SST with 1.2 significantly colder than the central and eastern basins. I think we end up with a weak Nina in 3.4 that is trumped by colder waters to its east. Analogs such as these are the ones that produce lots of variability in winter weather vs. anemic winter weather like last year.

The western and central pacific actually  warmed over the last week while the east remained the coldest again. This is pretty typical.

1.2. -1.4
3.0  -0.8
3.4. -0.5
4.0. -0.2

This still looks like a very east based La NiŮa with a strongly negative QBO and neutral to slightly positive PDO. Iím still thinking highly variable winter especially if one of those arctic fronts gets stuck in our area.

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 31, 2017, 06:51:36 AM
The western and central pacific actually  warmed over the last week while the east remained the coldest again. This is pretty typical.

1.2. -1.4
3.0  -0.8
3.4. -0.5
4.0. -0.2

This still looks like a very east based La NiŮa with a strongly negative QBO and neutral to slightly positive PDO. Iím still thinking highly variable winter especially if one of those arctic fronts gets stuck in our area.

While we are in a mild spell over the next week, GFS has snow continuing to pile up just over the border in Canada.  Some impressive totals showing up over the next two weeks.  Plenty of cold gathering as well, unlike the last two years when true Arctic air was sparse on our side of the globe.  It only takes a brief pattern change (-NAO) to tap into some of that cold.  It might not last all winter long, but I'll take one or two weeks of winter weather over nothing at all.   
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 31, 2017, 10:25:45 AM
Great winter write up on WeatherBell today, Courtesy Joe D' Aleo:

October has been on average warm in the eastern half of the nation (exception south Texas) and the southwest but cold northwest
(http://i65.tinypic.com/2d9wphl.png)


The month has ended with cold air in the central states and the first snows.
(http://i68.tinypic.com/ri7rzc.png)


It has been wet in the Midwest but dry in North Dakota and in the south.
(http://i64.tinypic.com/25jlbhl.png)



See the first snows in the last few days in the northern most areas including the northwest Lakes.
(http://i63.tinypic.com/219aogj.jpg)




Temperatures in La Ninas tend to start winter (NDJ) coldest in the northern Plains, warmest in Texas. Mid to late winters (JFM) are coldest northwest and north central warmest south east back to Texas.
(http://i66.tinypic.com/2whgyde.png)



The La Ninas are nuanced by the QBO state with similar results for the solar effects. Easterly QBOs mean more high latitude blocking and suppressed cold, though not immune to the La Nina intraseasonal variability when the resulting blocking eases.
(http://i64.tinypic.com/2vkcojm.jpg)
(http://i64.tinypic.com/30bcy6x.png)



The Pioneer which includes ENSO,ocean warm and cold pools and ocean oscillations, solar and QBO shows a cold winter for all but the southwest.
(http://i66.tinypic.com/cztl.png)



See how much the temperature match the CAI easterly QBO scenario
(http://i64.tinypic.com/nx6zbb.png)
December to February Temperature Anomalies East QBO (Cai)

La Ninas are dry south, wet northwest and in mid to late winter the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, Great Lakes on northeast, along the boundary of the coldest air.
(http://i65.tinypic.com/2d2f6fn.png)



Pioneer hints at that.
(http://i63.tinypic.com/14wxczl.png)



Note in the snowfall La Nina climatology, the northwest down to Sierra and the Rockies are snowiest January to March. The Ohio and Tennessee valley can have early snows. The central high Plains is below normal. In January to March, the Mid Atlantic and central high plains have less than normal snows. It is snowy across the Northwest, north central and northeast. The Ohio Valley to the Delta is on average is prone to above normal snows.
(http://i63.tinypic.com/1zyfo7a.png)



The latest EPS is starting to show the northern cold and southern warmth.
(http://i66.tinypic.com/21108q1.png)


It shows the dry central and northern plains but wet northwest to the Sierra, Midwest and Great Lakes to the northeast.
(http://i65.tinypic.com/2d7abmp.png)



Snow really builds in Canada and in the west and the northern plains to northern Lakes and northern parts of the northeast.
(http://i66.tinypic.com/nyycrl.png)


Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: snowdog on October 31, 2017, 01:59:26 PM
Thanks for sharing Curt. I like where we sit. Should have a few good chances this year, timing as always will be key.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: StormNine on November 01, 2017, 10:08:02 PM
I will post my winter thoughts this weekend.  Curt has a lot of good stuff and good thoughts and some of his thoughts are also how I think winter could potentially go. 

This picture is a hint of my thoughts at this time.
 (http://i67.tinypic.com/34r7kw3.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on November 01, 2017, 10:51:27 PM
It looks more promising than the last two winters. Bring on the snow  ::popcorn::  ::snowman::

Any chance at a snowfall this month? I want someone in Tennessee to cash in early.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on November 02, 2017, 04:16:00 AM
It looks more promising than the last two winters. Bring on the snow  ::popcorn::  ::snowman::

Any chance at a snowfall this month? I want someone in Tennessee to cash in early.
not likely... but if... t be at very end of month... december will likely be our coldest month overall temp wise... thinking... january and february will be some swings... leading to more viotale weatherincluding severe wx chances for the midsouth and tennessee valley region....
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: @NashSevereWx on November 02, 2017, 09:22:12 AM
The 1104 hour 10:1 ratio ECMWF EPS is one of my faves #accuweather.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on November 02, 2017, 09:29:52 AM
I will post my winter thoughts this weekend.  Curt has a lot of good stuff and good thoughts and some of his thoughts are also how I think winter could potentially go. 

This picture is a hint of my thoughts at this time.
 (http://i67.tinypic.com/34r7kw3.jpg)

I have a "feeling" that western TN (from Nashville westward) will have the better potential for winter weather, including some overrunning ice events.  From Curt's postings, east TN is a little closer to the ridge, and will probably need a decent -NAO and the resulting blocking to suppress the ridge long enough to cash in on some winter fun. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on November 02, 2017, 11:39:00 AM
Winter Forecast by DT WXRisk

https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/WINTERPRELIM1718shortB.pdf
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on November 02, 2017, 01:56:20 PM
I have a "feeling" that western TN (from Nashville westward) will have the better potential for winter weather, including some overrunning ice events.  From Curt's postings, east TN is a little closer to the ridge, and will probably need a decent -NAO and the resulting blocking to suppress the ridge long enough to cash in on some winter fun.
NE AR, the MO boot heel and Western KY will probably fair a little better. Oh let's not forget I44


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on November 02, 2017, 05:46:17 PM
Winter Forecast by DT WXRisk

https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/WINTERPRELIM1718shortB.pdf

Good stuff.  Thanks for posting!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on November 03, 2017, 09:14:25 AM
I 44 really going be cross heirs this winter... mainly snow... due  to ridge placement ....
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on November 03, 2017, 10:13:26 AM
Based on weak La Nina winters with a solid negative QBO which is what we will see this winter- here are snowfall amounts.

1962-63-Dec to Feb incredibly cold before easing up in March
Memphis 6.1
Nashville  23.7
Knoxville  18.3
Chatt  3.4

1967-68 December warm, Jan- March cold and snowy
Memphis 23.8
Nashville  27
Knoxville  12.5
Chatt  10.5

1981-82 December to Feb cold
Memphis 6.7
Nashville 9.5
Knoxville  9.4
Chatt  5.2

1983-84- Brutal cold December and January
Memphis 4
Nashville  7.7
Knoxville 6.2
Chatt 2.3

2000-2001 Near record cold Dec, cold Jan, warm Feb, cold March
Memphis 3
Nashville 2.5
Knoxville 0
Chatt 0
(Memphis also had a moderate ice storm mid December)

Memphis hit 0 or below in 3/5 of those winters (62-63, 81-82, 83-84)so you know the rest of the state was colder at least. The other 2 (67-68 and 00-01) Memphis was in the single digits.


Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on November 03, 2017, 12:53:34 PM
The temperature gradient should be steep across the midwest this winter. Hope we can get some cold snaps out of shifts in the jet stream. It won't take much distance for a cold air mass to reach us. As y'all said, it looks like it's splitting the I-44 OKC/Tulsa/Missouri corridor.

Just hoping this weak La Nina won't be a copy of 2011-12. Whole U.S. torched except for the Pacific NW, and Portland, Oregon was among the few cities that recorded above avg snowfall. The trend for the 1st half of this November has been similar. Crossing my fingers for a major pattern shift.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on November 03, 2017, 02:03:36 PM
The temperature gradient should be steep across the midwest this winter. Hope we can get some cold snaps out of shifts in the jet stream. It won't take much distance for a cold air mass to reach us. As y'all said, it looks like it's splitting the I-44 OKC/Tulsa/Missouri corridor.

Just hoping this weak La Nina won't be a copy of 2011-12. Whole U.S. torched except for the Pacific NW, and Portland, Oregon was among the few cities that recorded above avg snowfall. The trend for the 1st half of this November has been similar. Crossing my fingers for a major pattern shift.

I do believe that La Nina (2011-12) was a moderate one and west based. Springfield MO to STL always stands a climatologically better chance- SE ridge or not. The SE Ridge does move, it doesn't just stay at one point for 3 months.

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on November 03, 2017, 02:16:05 PM
Think it's safe to say using any analog beyond 1990 isn't feasible  due to climate change... Know going get roasted... but it's what it is ... I hate it just like rest of you.... but yeah se ridge will move around quite a bit  during Nina winters....
Title: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on November 03, 2017, 02:17:30 PM
Think it's safe to say using any analog beyond 1990 isn't feasible  due to climate change... Know going get roasted... but it's what it is ... I hate it just like rest of you.... but yeah we ridge will move around quite a bit  during Nina winters....

Wait- you said 1985 earlier? While no winter is exactly alike, I can give you multiple analogs with similar features post and pre 85 or 90.
 
Maybe Crockett can jump back in lol
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on November 03, 2017, 02:37:26 PM
Most people like their winters warmer than usual, but I'm the opposite; I think an abnormally warm winter is very depressing. Maybe my opinion of a warm winter would change if I spent one winter in Russia   ::cold::

Please, Mother Nature, don't give me '11-'12 or the last two winters. I want a break from this warm crap.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: StormNine on November 03, 2017, 07:57:11 PM
I could not resist the urge of releasing some of my predictions. 

I want to thank Curt for his input as it allowed for me to think about some more things.  In honor of Microsoft Paint and what it has done for us weenies, I made some Microsoft Paint maps as our chapter with Paint is about to close. 

A few quick thoughts about this outlook:

- This winter does not have a lot of analogs. A -QBO, 2nd Year Weak -ENSO event that is also east based is not too common in the analogs so we have somewhat of a unique situation.  I think the winters that Curt mentioned plus 84-85 are probably the closest you are going to get to analogs. 

- Remember that 2nd year La Nina's tend to be much different from their former La Nina for better (1917-18, 1950-51, and 1984-85) or for worse (2011-12).  The only exception to that rule was 1999-00 which was similar to 1998-99 but both of those were much stronger events than this one will be. 

The Factors:

- The -QBO which will help us out as long as it doesn't get too negative (see DT WX Risk for a better explanation)

- A Weak La Nina event that will weaken throughout the winter.  Also it is east-based which is known to be better for our area versus a west-based La Nina. 
 
- We may be able to finally take advantage of the increased snowcover to the north. In 2015-16 we couldn't because we had a super El-Nino, and a locked in place southeast ridge prevented us from accessing it last winter along with a +QBO. 

- The pattern in the late Summer and Fall at least hints that the ridge can be temporarily broken.

- Finally the southeastern ridge.  I think this ridge will be stubborn early on, but it may allow for bitter cold to build to our north and this could prove important as we head further into the winter.   
 

The Outlook:

December:  This month I think goes a lot like October went.  It starts off warm due to a strong -PNA and probably +NAO.  The ridge is at its strongest point during the timeframe, but cold and snowy conditions are allowed to build to our northwest and by month's end we will shift into a true winter pattern with a possible significant weather event (either winter or severe) to accompany that.

Departure from Normal:
Chattanogga: +3.1
Clarksville: +2.5
Knoxville: +3.5
Memphis: +2.5
Nashville: +2.9
Paducah KY: +2.5

(http://i66.tinypic.com/20hpzjl.png)


January


Boom!! goes the dynamite and that airmass that has been building to our northwest will be released.  It would be a good time for the PNA to go neutral and the NAO to at least to Neutral or even Negative and for us to dent the SE Ridge.  I think January is our coldest and probably snowiest month.  Warmer air may try and filter in from the south occasionally so watch out for both snow and ice events. 

Departure from Normal:
Chattanooga: -2.8
Clarksville: -3.5
Knoxville: -2.8
Memphis: -3.0
Nashville: -3.3
Paducah, KY: -4.5

(http://i65.tinypic.com/2iasity.png)

February: 

A very tough month to predict.  The effects of the La Nina may start to fade a bit, but I think the ridging in the southern USA will be hard to shake.  My best call is that the entranced airmass of winter goodness hangs around the Northwest, Midwest, and perhaps Ohio Valley, while portions of the southeast return back to their regular scheduled programming of warmer than average temperatures. Several of our closer analogs show this so it is a possible scenario.  If this happens a battleground zone could set up over our region leading to active weather of both the severe and winter weather variety.  The other possible alternative is the cold air of January could linger but I don't think that is as likely. 

Departures from Normal:
Chattanogga: +0.5
Clarksville: -0.9
Knoxville: Average
Memphis: Average
Nashville: -0.2

(http://i68.tinypic.com/21e6sfk.png)

Precip:
There a lot of people that think the La Nina= Dry Southeast, but as Curt mentioned east-based La Ninas can bring above average precipitation to a good chunk of Tennessee and even adjacent parts of MS/AL as well.  I think that is something that may catch a few people in parts of MS/AL and even TN off guard a bit.  Plus if my cold January verifies then that will help push the battleground zone further south. 

(http://i63.tinypic.com/oarouc.png)

Some other predictions:


- Increased model confusion.  I am predicting that the models will be less accurate this year due to the potential for sudden pattern changes.  Models do not handle those well at all and with southern ridging one has to always fear the NW Trend.

- Don't forget about severe weather:  I do think at least one significant severe/tornado threat will get us sometime this winter.  I would say that late December and February have the greatest severe threats based on my outlook. 

Enjoy and have a great rest of Fall and have a great Winter 2017-18.  There is potential to have fun just like Curt and others have mentioned.  We shall see if that potential can be unleased. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: snowdog on November 03, 2017, 09:58:11 PM
Good write up Storm9! Enjoyed it.
Title: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on November 03, 2017, 11:49:11 PM
Well thought out and I largely agree with you. Great job man!

We are well past forecasts that broad brush enso into one. One more thing I might add is the cold comes on strong with MJO phases 8 to 2. Also a strat warning could make things colder for longer periods instead of vacillating on the see saw.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 03, 2017, 11:49:49 PM
Great write up by Curt and Storm9. The snowman is ready! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: vanster67 on November 04, 2017, 12:18:06 AM
Really like the outlook Storm nine and Curts input as well.  Here's to having a solid winter ::flag::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on November 04, 2017, 04:53:38 AM
some are under estimating the southeast ridge quite bit.... ice going to be more problem than snow this winter overall... were over due for a good ice storm...  and pretty  transient cold type pattern what we will see...  over all quick prediction from me is going to be temps above average... precip average for this up coming winter... book it dano....
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on November 04, 2017, 06:38:20 AM
I've really enjoyed reading the information and forecasts posted here.  Thanks, folks.  Good, well thought out opinions and outlooks.

As for the southeast ridge, it can rear it's ugly head.  It did in December of 84, and gave us a record warm month of rain and severe weather.  But the ridge moves, and can be shoved out of the way long enough to provide us with a pattern change.  As we know, the ridge was no longer the bully on the block in January '85. (And Storm9's outlook looks a lot like 84-85--warm December, cold January).  All it takes is a strong -AO, or a potent Greenland block, or a temporary ridge to build up the west coast of NA for us to tap into the cold building in Canada.  And the cold is there this year, and a growing snow pack to our north will keep it there. Between the cold there, and the warmth of the southeast ridge, a strengthening jet stream will develop with the battle ground spawning numerous strong storm systems.  All the long-range outlooks showing above normal precip in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys support that idea.  As we all know, it's the difference in temperatures across the globe that spawns storms, and there is one heck of a temperature gradient developing across North America in the current pattern. If that lingers into spring--watch out!

For the last 3 years we've had a pretty quiet weather pattern with only brief bouts of any winter or severe weather.  If you want to go way back, we really haven't had a hyper-active weather pattern since 10-11 when that spring saw one severe outbreak after another, including the big one on 4/27.   From what I've seen posted here by Curt, Storm9 and others, we are about to enter a very volatile and changeable weather situation, and some would say we are due, since for many years the weather has been pretty benign around here, overall.

I say buckle up boys and girls.  The upcoming winter and spring could be a bumpy ride. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: wfrogge on November 04, 2017, 02:34:30 PM
Just remember that there is no such science behind "we are due". 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on November 04, 2017, 03:43:25 PM
No, there isn't, but weather patterns do repeat in some form or fashion over time.  That's why so many forecasters use "analogs" to come up with forecasts.  Whatever happened before, will happen again. It may not be a carbon copy of a past weather event, but the overall weather pattern can be similar. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on November 05, 2017, 12:30:45 AM
Alright y'all. I drafted my predictions for the contiguous U.S. in an MS Paint doc. All comments, questions and criticism are welcomed.

In terms of snowfall, here are my predictions. They're a little pessimistic, as I think much of this winter will be too warm for us to cash in on major events. I think we will too often be caught on the warm side of major systems. Mother Nature is like... "Oh, there's some moisture in Tennessee? Here, why don't I just make it real warm. No snow for you!  ::shaking_finger::"

Tennessee

Clarksville: 10.0"
Tri-Cities: 9.0"
Nashville: 6.5"
Knoxville: 5.0"
Jackson: 4.0"
Chattanooga: 3.0"
Memphis: 2.5"

North Carolina

Asheville: 12.0"
Winston-Salem: 6.0"
Charlotte: 4.5"
Raleigh: 4.0"
Wilmington: Trace

Kentucky

Louisville: 21.0"
Lexington: 19.5"
Paducah: 13.0"
Bowling Green: 11.5"

Deep South

Little Rock: 3.5"
Atlanta: 1.0"
Birmingham: 1.0"
Columbia, SC: 0.5"
Jackson, MS: Trace

Midwest

Cleveland: 67.0"
Minneapolis: 55.0"
Milwaukee: 44.5"
Chicago: 42.0"
Detroit: 36.0"
Des Moines: 34.0"
Columbus, OH: 31.5"
Kansas City: 31.0"
Indianapolis: 27.5"
Cincinnati: 24.0"
St. Louis: 22.0"

Northeast

Buffalo: 85.0"
Boston: 46.0"
Hartford: 37.0"
New York City: 34.5"
Pittsburgh: 30.0"
Philadelphia: 25.5"
Washington: 16.0"

[attachimg=1]

Post Merge: November 05, 2017, 01:39:47 AM
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on November 05, 2017, 05:17:26 AM
Alright y'all. I drafted my predictions for the contiguous U.S. in an MS Paint doc. All comments, questions and criticism are welcomed.

In terms of snowfall, here are my predictions. They're a little pessimistic, as I think much of this winter will be too warm for us to cash in on major events. I think we will too often be caught on the warm side of major systems. Mother Nature is like... "Oh, there's some moisture in Tennessee? Here, why don't I just make it real warm. No snow for you!  ::shaking_finger::"

Tennessee

Clarksville: 10.0"
Tri-Cities: 9.0"
Nashville: 6.5"
Knoxville: 5.0"
Jackson: 4.0"
Chattanooga: 3.0"
Memphis: 2.5"

North Carolina

Asheville: 12.0"
Winston-Salem: 6.0"
Charlotte: 4.5"
Raleigh: 4.0"
Wilmington: Trace

Kentucky

Louisville: 21.0"
Lexington: 19.5"
Paducah: 13.0"
Bowling Green: 11.5"

Deep South

Little Rock: 3.5"
Atlanta: 1.0"
Birmingham: 1.0"
Columbia, SC: 0.5"
Jackson, MS: Trace

Midwest

Cleveland: 67.0"
Minneapolis: 55.0"
Milwaukee: 44.5"
Chicago: 42.0"
Detroit: 36.0"
Des Moines: 34.0"
Columbus, OH: 31.5"
Kansas City: 31.0"
Indianapolis: 27.5"
Cincinnati: 24.0"
St. Louis: 22.0"

Northeast

Buffalo: 85.0"
Boston: 46.0"
Hartford: 37.0"
New York City: 34.5"
Pittsburgh: 30.0"
Philadelphia: 25.5"
Washington: 16.0"

(Attachment Link) :
Post Merge: November 05, 2017, 01:39:47 AM
(Attachment Link)
nice job there... may be still tad high on the snowfall... but well done

Post Merge: November 05, 2017, 05:38:28 AM
i killed  3 big red wasp yesterday after work... flying around my work shop... in november?   maybe they know something... ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: StormNine on November 07, 2017, 10:21:31 PM
https://www.wxrisk.com/more-hints-reasons-why-i-am-skeptical-of-mild-la-nina-winter-narrative/

More updates and this could put my December forecast at risk if it verifies.  The Greenland Block if it verifies will help lock the cold air on our side of the world, which we did not have at all for the last several winters.   

The -PNA may focus the intense cold over the Northern Plains/Rockies, which is one of the reasons I had the worst of the cold over to the northwest of us.  If the PNA was to go + or even neutral, and the -QBO could force a Greenland Block and the -NAO/-AO then we are going to have a rockin time. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on November 07, 2017, 10:34:06 PM
I like this uncertainty. I miss the thrill of following a winter storm. If we're lucky, maybe one month from now we'll have something to watch for  ::popcorn::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on November 08, 2017, 01:53:23 PM
https://www.wxrisk.com/more-hints-reasons-why-i-am-skeptical-of-mild-la-nina-winter-narrative/

More updates and this could put my December forecast at risk if it verifies.  The Greenland Block if it verifies will help lock the cold air on our side of the world, which we did not have at all for the last several winters.   

The -PNA may focus the intense cold over the Northern Plains/Rockies, which is one of the reasons I had the worst of the cold over to the northwest of us.  If the PNA was to go + or even neutral, and the -QBO could force a Greenland Block and the -NAO/-AO then we are going to have a rockin time.

Interesting that both the NAO and AO could be heading deep into negative territory soon.

(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 08, 2017, 02:54:47 PM
Bring on a blockbuster winter.  ::popcorn:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on November 08, 2017, 03:02:47 PM
So, so excited. In my opinion, nothing beats a December snowfall. We haven't had one in Tennessee since 2010.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: EastTNWX on November 13, 2017, 04:57:55 PM
So, so excited. In my opinion, nothing beats a December snowfall. We haven't had one in Tennessee since 2010.

Dec 21 2016 the Knoxville area received between a trace and 0.5" of snow, NWFS showers in cold air produced some accumulations for most in the area.  That said I would also love a REAL snow this December.  It looks like something is trying to brew around Thanksgiving...something to watch!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on November 14, 2017, 07:34:52 AM
Dec 21 2016 the Knoxville area received between a trace and 0.5" of snow, NWFS showers in cold air produced some accumulations for most in the area.  That said I would also love a REAL snow this December.  It looks like something is trying to brew around Thanksgiving...something to watch!

Forecasts continue to show the NAO/AO going toward some of the lowest readings in a long time around the Thanksgiving timeframe.  PNA is forecast to go from negative to neutral.  All this *could* add up to something interesting around Turkey Time.  Even if it doesn't stick, snow falling on Thanksgiving is welcome and festive.  It will give me a reason to avoid a nap after the feast. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: snowdog on November 14, 2017, 09:14:40 AM
Euro showing a huge ridge right up west central us, serious cold looks to stay over Alaska.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: cleTNwx on November 14, 2017, 01:30:47 PM
Too soon to start crossing fingers concerning the GFS look around the 27th of this month? 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: snowdog on November 14, 2017, 01:42:35 PM
Too soon to start crossing fingers concerning the GFS look around the 27th of this month?

Too soon when the Euro doesn't agree with the pattern look of the GFS.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Hank W on November 15, 2017, 11:49:35 AM
12z GFS has the first big fantasy storm of the season around hour 252. Don't think it's anything to get excited over with zero consistency, but at least it is that time of year!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on November 15, 2017, 01:34:22 PM
12z GFS has the first big fantasy storm of the season around hour 252. Don't think it's anything to get excited over with zero consistency, but at least it is that time of year!

Oh this little thing on day 10?
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171115/41af8ef9cdcca9bd28334c1b95f775f2.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: joemomma on November 15, 2017, 01:41:19 PM
LOL good grief!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on November 15, 2017, 01:42:26 PM
Oh this little thing on day 10?
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171115/41af8ef9cdcca9bd28334c1b95f775f2.jpg)

Lock it in LOL


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on November 16, 2017, 06:37:06 AM
Interesting that a warm blob of water is once again appearing in parts of the Pacific off the northwest coast of North America.  That was the driver of many of our better/colder winters from 2013-15, and it was absent last year.  I'm curious how much it will influence this year's winter pattern. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: StormNine on November 23, 2017, 07:11:52 PM
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

Deck the halls with a blowtorch for the first week of December.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on November 24, 2017, 07:22:08 AM
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

Deck the halls with a blowtorch for the first week of December.

Looks like week 1 of meteorological winter goes to the Heat Miser. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on November 24, 2017, 08:27:36 AM
Looks like week 1 of meteorological winter goes to the Heat Miser.
not a bad thing.  Remember 84 85 winter
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on November 24, 2017, 04:59:03 PM
not a bad thing.  Remember 84 85 winter
Not overly concerned yet.  Most long range forecasts, including those made by some here, said December should be warm.  The Northern Hemisphere has a good snow pack already in Canada and Asia, so we aren't where we were this time last year.  Hopefully, we can get some action in January.  Nothing to do but wait and see. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: cliftown04 on November 25, 2017, 01:10:21 PM
I am sooo ready for some life on this site!  It's been dead so long I sometimes wonder if many members have moved on.  I hope we find out soon!!!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on November 25, 2017, 08:17:48 PM
I am sooo ready for some life on this site!  It's been dead so long I sometimes wonder if many members have moved on.  I hope we find out soon!!!

Nothing looks major out to 14 days, so we might have to be patient for something to get excited about. GFS is turning cooler around day 14.  ::fingerscrossed::

Post Merge: November 25, 2017, 08:20:42 PM
We look to be warmer than normal to begin December, but if we follow the same temperature pattern as we have this month, we might cash in. Just need a MAJOR shift in the storm tracks. It's been dead and will stay that way for at least another week.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: skillsweather on November 25, 2017, 09:36:04 PM
imo its to early for snow not that it cant happen but come the end of December is when we usually have snow storms to track that actually have any chance of happening. I will say if the models stay as boring as they have been by the end of December then well thats a bad sign for us probably. Still to soon to care about anything really on the models snow wise.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on November 26, 2017, 06:32:10 AM
imo its to early for snow not that it cant happen but come the end of December is when we usually have snow storms to track that actually have any chance of happening. I will say if the models stay as boring as they have been by the end of December then well thats a bad sign for us probably. Still to soon to care about anything really on the models snow wise.
yeah. This pattern is. Dilly dilly. Meh

Post Merge: November 26, 2017, 07:19:39 AM
on another weather forum that i float around n post time or two... they seem to think the cometh of the second ice age is coming around mid december... lmao... i havent looked that far ahead   cause its to far out no sense... but we will see
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: harlequin on November 26, 2017, 11:29:35 AM
(https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/usdroughtmonitor-weekly-ndmc.png)

No drought officially here, but a lot of Arkansas is in the severe category.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on November 26, 2017, 11:32:57 AM
(https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/usdroughtmonitor-weekly-ndmc.png)

No drought officially here, but a lot of Arkansas is in the severe category.
yeah... things dont change... which i doubt with this la nina     next summer going be brutal

Post Merge: November 26, 2017, 11:56:09 AM
if the 12z gfs is correct... it has the seasons first artic attack end of first week december... ::cold::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on November 26, 2017, 12:28:06 PM
(https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/usdroughtmonitor-weekly-ndmc.png)

No drought officially here, but a lot of Arkansas is in the severe category.

The Mid South and Arkansas in particular should get some good relief over the next 15 days
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171126/46e837593addfcbd5d1a0f2c1eeb0bcb.jpg)

Also all longer range modeling is tanking the AO, NAO, and EPO in about 2 weeks. We may be about to see an abrupt change to winter. This is the EPS temp anomaly for day 15

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171126/7bf75942e1f201afa3fc04dbc6d7df3c.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on November 26, 2017, 02:02:08 PM
The Mid South and Arkansas in particular should get some good relief over the next 15 days
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171126/46e837593addfcbd5d1a0f2c1eeb0bcb.jpg)

Also all longer range modeling is tanking the AO, NAO, and EPO in about 2 weeks. We may be about to see an abrupt change to winter. This is the EPS temp anomaly for day 15

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171126/7bf75942e1f201afa3fc04dbc6d7df3c.jpg)

Bring it.  Before we know it, it will be 90 again.  Winter, like 100% cotton washed in hot water, seems to be shrinking. 

Post Merge: November 27, 2017, 10:07:24 AM
Long range outlooks continue to increase the amount of impressive blocking in the Polar regions by the middle/end of next week, and the AO is tanking around the same time.  Big flip coming if it holds. 

(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Matthew on November 27, 2017, 03:57:39 PM
Well looking good fellow peeps!  Winter appears to be on the way!
To me it has been a great fall so far!  So winter appears to be right about on schedule!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on November 28, 2017, 06:32:07 PM
From the tail end of MEG's  AFD this afternoon.

A pattern change looks
increasingly likely by the middle to end of next week with colder
temperatures and increasingly wet conditions expected.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: skillsweather on November 28, 2017, 07:22:38 PM
Colder then average and wet surely something can happen? I mean it will be December. I like the wet trend for sure though. I was getting worried we would be dry all winter and probably miss out on any chance of snow because of that.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: justinmundie on November 29, 2017, 06:58:06 AM
Donít get a much colder look than this....

(http://i68.tinypic.com/2jfxe2s.gif)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on November 29, 2017, 07:17:46 AM
From the tail end of MEG's  AFD this afternoon.

A pattern change looks
increasingly likely by the middle to end of next week with colder
temperatures and increasingly wet conditions expected.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Both will be welcomed.   Latest GFS run (06Z) does show cold shots increasing in number and intensity toward the end of it's run.  Also interesting to see a large pool of even colder air growing in central and eastern Canada.   
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on November 29, 2017, 07:20:09 AM
Channel 4 (WSMV Nashville) this morning mentioned the Arctic blast coming next week.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on November 29, 2017, 07:26:04 AM
EPS goes cold for much of the country after the first week of December and stays that way through much of January.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on November 29, 2017, 07:37:00 AM
After the last two torchy Decembers, it will be a welcome change to have cold, and even a few possible snow chances, during the Christmas season.  Maybe we can get a decent snow when the sun is at it's lowest in the sky.  The Great Snow Eater will be at it's weakest.   >:D
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on November 29, 2017, 07:37:54 AM
EPS goes cold for much of the country after the first week of December and stays that way through much of January.
things also look dry as bone also... another thing i dont like is  there really isnt hardly much if any snowcover to our north in our country that is... sure way up cross border... see it it modifies slowly.... models may be over doing some things... to be hones key here is dry... getting worried

Post Merge: November 29, 2017, 07:39:16 AM
your not going to get s winter storm threat out of this up coming pattern as now... not hardly enough sw energy with gulf pretty much getting choked off... but cold does look promising
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on November 29, 2017, 09:44:25 AM
Iím not too worried about snow cover- thatís something that can change in a week. Iím fact hereís the EPS 15 and 46 day mean.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171129/d4788f73afc697d93af654b51066ab89.jpg)

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171129/4f7fe99afeb525a541538d0a3e23fd2f.jpg)

I would love to see one of those patterns that lays down cold well before moisture returns. Itís been awhile vs abrupt changes- which I expect to see some of as well.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on November 29, 2017, 10:01:51 AM
Iím not too worried about snow cover- thatís something that can change in a week. Iím fact hereís the EPS 15 and 46 day mean.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171129/d4788f73afc697d93af654b51066ab89.jpg)

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171129/4f7fe99afeb525a541538d0a3e23fd2f.jpg)

I would love to see one of those patterns that lays down cold well before moisture returns. Itís been awhile vs abrupt changes- which I expect to see some of as well.

How do you get access to this? I guess you have to pay?
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on November 29, 2017, 10:13:21 AM
Iím not too worried about snow cover- thatís something that can change in a week. Iím fact hereís the EPS 15 and 46 day mean.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171129/d4788f73afc697d93af654b51066ab89.jpg)

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171129/4f7fe99afeb525a541538d0a3e23fd2f.jpg)

I would love to see one of those patterns that lays down cold well before moisture returns. Itís been awhile vs abrupt changes- which I expect to see some of as well.

Man, that's an impressive snowpack building just to our north--and it's only early December. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on November 29, 2017, 10:44:17 AM
Man, that's an impressive snowpack building just to our north--and it's only early December.
thats based of models... we see if that pans out remains to be seen  then color me excited
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on November 29, 2017, 12:03:30 PM
thats based of models... we see if that pans out remains to be seen  then color me excited

Yes, that's additional snow.  But there is already a decent cover of white over the border in Canada.  Models have been right on the money when it comes to the snow already there.  No reason to think they are suddenly going to be wrong. 

(http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_v3/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/USA/2017/ims2017332_usa.gif)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on November 30, 2017, 11:54:26 AM
Gfs has a fantasy storm per day. Gotta start someone and considering we couldnít get a fantasy storm last year- we are already ahead.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on November 30, 2017, 12:00:21 PM
Gfs has a fantasy storm per day. Gotta start someone and considering we couldnít get a fantasy storm last year- we are already ahead.
yeah the h5 pattern on the 12z was pretty good... im starting get excited bit... ::yum::

Post Merge: November 30, 2017, 12:25:41 PM
this pattern im seeing on ensembles is outstanding if you want cold and winter... best i have seen in years to be honest... ::snowman:: ::cold::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: StormNine on November 30, 2017, 01:41:08 PM
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

This is what we want a +PNA.  Good things happen when we have that because it leads to riding in the western USA and forces any cold air to pour into the Eastern 1/3 to 1/2th of the country. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on November 30, 2017, 03:51:38 PM
yeah the h5 pattern on the 12z was pretty good... im starting get excited bit... ::yum::

Post Merge: November 30, 2017, 12:25:41 PM
this pattern im seeing on ensembles is outstanding if you want cold and winter... best i have seen in years to be honest... ::snowman:: ::cold::

Woohoo...Bruce is finally on board the winter train.   ::flag::

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_BXW3wfBU4ow/TQedGgzyzOI/AAAAAAAAArs/B61yAZpxuRo/s1600/train%2Bin%2Bwinter.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on November 30, 2017, 03:55:52 PM
yeah the h5 pattern on the 12z was pretty good... im starting get excited bit... ::yum::

Post Merge: November 30, 2017, 12:25:41 PM
this pattern im seeing on ensembles is outstanding if you want cold and winter... best i have seen in years to be honest... ::snowman:: ::cold::

Go ahead and put all the chips on the table.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on November 30, 2017, 07:14:21 PM
Let's gooooooooooo!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: StormNine on November 30, 2017, 07:17:48 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfclwwgbQoE

Since we are on the topic of snow and trains there is this awesome video taken in the Washington Cascades during a major winter storm (DEC 2012). 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 01, 2017, 12:01:40 AM
Happy Meteorological Winter!!!  ::snowman:: ::applause::
[attachimg=1]
 ::cold:: ::popcorn::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Beth on December 01, 2017, 06:12:59 AM
Happy Meteorological Winter!!!  ::snowman:: ::applause::
(Attachment Link)
 ::cold:: ::popcorn::
I have been on Stevens pass the 2nd week of June and snow was still on the ground and there was light snow showers.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 01, 2017, 07:30:07 AM
Happy Meteorological Winter!!!  ::snowman:: ::applause::
(Attachment Link)
 ::cold:: ::popcorn::

Perfect set-up for cold in eastern U.S.  Above normal in Alaska and the west U.S. signifying a positive PNA ridge over western North America.   Hope it gets stuck there through February. 

Post Merge: December 01, 2017, 08:32:18 AM
Long range model runs show bitter Arctic air gathering in Canada toward mid-late December.  Could we have a big piece of it break off at some point with all the blocking taking place, and a +PNA?  Shades of December 1983 & 1989. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: dwagner88 on December 01, 2017, 09:24:27 AM
GFS has a great fantasy storm on 12/15! Just what I needed to distract myself from the total unraveling of my favorite football team.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 01, 2017, 09:49:54 AM
Weak La nina and east QBO PLUS- MJO looks to be moving into the colder phases 7-8-1-2 through the beginning of the year and perhaps beyond. If we get some high amplitude of any of those cold phases and we could see prolonged cold.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: StormNine on December 01, 2017, 12:21:23 PM
If you want to see the sexiest cross-polar flow then tune in to the later runs of the latest 12Z GFS.  Complete with an epic Greenland Block and Western US Ridge.  That is what the perfect pattern looks like if you like sustained winter. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: snowdog on December 01, 2017, 12:43:38 PM
Bastardi saying Euro is showing snow all the way down to the Gulf Coast.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: wfrogge on December 01, 2017, 01:36:04 PM
That "other forum" is about to be on fire if not already.......    ::cold::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on December 01, 2017, 01:40:26 PM
That "other forum" is about to be on fire if not already.......    ::cold::

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171201/5a4d4093e7a52406bffe95e0cdb3c1cb.jpg)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 01, 2017, 02:49:49 PM
Starting to get a bit pumped about this winter.  Signs are pointing that it could be the best we've seen in three years, at least.  Plenty of cold gathering in Canada, something absent for the last two years.  Snow cover also about to really expand to our north if modeling is correct.  And we may have our first "shot across the bow" around mid-month, per the GFS.  Old Man Winter just getting in some target practice for later.

(http://www.cordeo.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/shot.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: StormNine on December 01, 2017, 04:43:43 PM
This December is starting to remind me a bit of December 1917 (we don't have that big winter threat that 1917 had mapped out on the models, at least not yet).  The first week or so of Dec 1917 was warm.  Hopkinsville went from 73F to 15 inches of snow in a span of a few days.  Then the cold air and snow chances kept on coming and coming.  1917-18 was also a second-year La-Nina as well.  Now whether this winter is 1917-18 or is more like 2000-01 or 2010-11 with significant moderation towards the end remains to be seen.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 01, 2017, 05:53:25 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171201/5a4d4093e7a52406bffe95e0cdb3c1cb.jpg)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
when i first saw this dumpster fire pic... thought we were talking about the state of the tennessee football program.... LOL
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on December 01, 2017, 06:50:27 PM
when i first saw this dumpster fire pic... thought we were talking about the state of the tennessee football program.... LOL

Probably not much difference  lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 01, 2017, 08:50:59 PM
Latest models showing the front coming through next Tuesday will bring colder temperatures than expected. Hopefully someone in TN will see some mixed precip or even snow on the backside.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 01, 2017, 09:04:20 PM
welcome meterology winter everyone.... ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: cgauxknox on December 01, 2017, 09:50:00 PM
It has begun https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10155572873392655&id=141871632654&_rdr
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: StormNine on December 01, 2017, 10:14:15 PM
It has begun https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10155572873392655&id=141871632654&_rdr

Everybody and their mama will be looking at that 2nd graphic with the greater snowfall amounts and think that is the forecast.  Then when the 1st graphic verifies they will be talking about how much of a non-event and hyped the event was. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clint on December 01, 2017, 11:54:25 PM
0Z GFS looks great tonight  ::snowman:: ::snowman::....

(https://i.imgur.com/m5irh3w.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: skillsweather on December 02, 2017, 03:11:37 AM
Its perfect. Its a friday (aka weekend snow) would give road crew enough time to clear the main roads for monday so no big problems and everyone can enjoy the snow right before Christmas (never really hear that around here often). Ofc it could very well be gone in a day or two on the models so dont get to happy yet. It is a good sign we at least have chances in the future already.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Charles L. on December 02, 2017, 07:28:38 AM
The way this pattern looks to be setting up, I would be shocked if we do not have, at least, one accumulating snow event around here this month.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 02, 2017, 06:14:41 PM
[attachimg=1]
5 day GFS shows snow cover gradually building to our northwest.

My only concern is how dry it is going to be  ::doh::

Chicago will be below freezing for a while after Tuesday, but it hardly even has a chance for snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mamMATTus on December 02, 2017, 08:07:19 PM
Trying not to get my hopes because I know how this goes 9 times outta 10, but the pattern is loaded and it seems like TN has to cash in at some point.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 02, 2017, 09:49:59 PM
(Attachment Link)
5 day GFS shows snow cover gradually building to our northwest.

My only concern is how dry it is going to be  ::doh::

Chicago will be below freezing for a while after Tuesday, but it hardly even has a chance for snow.
that worries me bit... southern jet tends to be less active in La NiŮa state... ::cliff::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 02, 2017, 11:23:04 PM
The way this pattern looks to be setting up, I would be shocked if we do not have, at least, one accumulating snow event around here this month.
I'll take my chances with this look in December. Looks to multiple opportunities.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 03, 2017, 04:23:17 AM
I'll take my chances with this look in December. Looks to multiple opportunities.
like see the trough shift bit more west to be honest ... to really bring the good stuff....this nina may be bit to far east base to be honest for our area... cold mainly dry... further east will score
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 03, 2017, 06:52:48 AM
06Z GFS has areas just to our north scoring big with several deep clipper systems coming down after the initial cold push arrives on Tuesday.  It will be interesting to see how this develops and how much the rapidly expanding snow pack just to our north influences the pattern as we go deeper into winter.  One thing is for sure, by the end of its run, the GFS has some bitter Arctic air developing in southeast Canada over the 3-4 feet of snow that will be there by then.

On a side note--this will be an interesting cam to watch over the coming weeks. . .

www.snowmancam.com/ (http://www.snowmancam.com/)

Its located in the forests near Gaylord, MI.  Lake effect and clipper snows will have that area buried in a few weeks. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 03, 2017, 07:40:40 AM
I have been way behind on the weather front, I will try to catch up sometime SOON! Hope everyone is doing well.  ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 03, 2017, 09:59:46 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171203/66de6259942cc37c029307134b7ddbad.jpg)

MJO looks to enter the cold phases just in time for heart of winter. We are actually going to get cold well before most likely due to the east based Nina and moderate QBO.

La NiŮa usually produces a enhanced corridor of precip from the Tennessee valley to the Ohio valley when battling for air mass placement. So far the NW flow will dominate early but donít be fooled this jet will buckle at some point. Even in cold dry winters, frozen precip can be a huge factor. Since meteorological winter just began yesterday, and it doesnít appear we will have a lack of access to the arctic, Iím curious what happens now in the mid December to early February period. The potential is certainly there.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on December 03, 2017, 10:02:21 AM
I have been way behind on the weather front, I will try to catch up sometime SOON! Hope everyone is doing well.  ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

Is the Snowman ready?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 03, 2017, 11:51:21 AM
If we can get to phase 1. 2.  Mean more storminess... until then. Hopefully trough retrograde west some to aloof jet to buckle bit... pattern now going be cooler with dry main thing. Far East. Ne catch the brunt of cold air mass
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 03, 2017, 12:00:25 PM
If we can get to phase 1. 2.  Mean more storminess... until then. Hopefully trough retrograde west some to aloof jet to buckle bit... pattern now going be cooler with dry main thing. Far East. Ne catch the brunt of cold air mass

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171203/f6c7a84aa5d7f569d27e5b2a3babfc68.jpg)

I need to dig up some old posts but winter storms were most frequent in phase 8 and 1. We are most likely going to enter amplitude phase somewhere in that area enhancing chances and as always nothing guaranteed.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: snowdog on December 03, 2017, 02:34:36 PM
I have been way behind on the weather front, I will try to catch up sometime SOON! Hope everyone is doing well.  ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

Soon, say around Wednesday/Thursday time frame?  ::whistling::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 03, 2017, 10:44:18 PM
Is the Snowman ready?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
You bet I am! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 04, 2017, 02:18:58 AM
The GFS has been very consistent with this clipper.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/166n6sp.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Coach B on December 04, 2017, 06:22:46 AM
 ::whistling::
OHX am AFD:
Quote
  As previously
mentioned clipper systems move across on Friday and Friday night.
Plenty of cold air in place so snow/mixed precipitation is still
expected. Storm total snow accumulations should be less than
inch...with an inch or so along the plateau. This should be the
first measurable snow for many places in middle TN
.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: justinmundie on December 04, 2017, 06:27:17 AM
Anyone have euro access? Clipper looks pretty strong on the free maps.

Also - extrapolating from day 10 on the euro seems... interesting. Two short waves moving down through the Rockies with cold locked.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 04, 2017, 07:30:50 AM
Glad to see a decent rain event coming in with the cold front tomorrow.  Been pretty dry for a few weeks, and need to recharge the soil moisture before the topsoil layer becomes harder with the onset of teens (or at least low 20's) during the night next weekend. 

No way of knowing if we'll see accumulations, but almost a certainty that most of us will see flakes falling at some point this weekend considering how deep the trough and associated clipper digs in this weekend. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 04, 2017, 07:42:31 AM
There are some big dogs on the GEFS in the LR. Just about every member has snow but 5 or 6 are   ::faint::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: ServoCrow on December 04, 2017, 10:30:50 AM
Okay, let's make my last winter in Tennessee a good one!!  GAME ON!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on December 04, 2017, 12:25:12 PM
Okay, let's make my last winter in Tennessee a good one!!  GAME ON!

Great to ďhearĒ from you but sorry to hear youíre leaving the state! Donít let yourself become too much of a stranger.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: skillsweather on December 04, 2017, 02:57:02 PM
Not that often we get our first snow this early in December (obviously its happened a lot im just saying like as of late its usually January or so) Also this one has the chance (not saying it will) to over preform. (not a big dog) but if (if...) we get lucky we could probably get more then the half inch they are calling for. Because 1 its going to be really cold starting Wednesday and that will prime the ground for sure and Friday night when this is pulling in we will be in the 20's thats plenty cold to squeeze more moisture out imo. Its just how much moisture it can pull and thats the question.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 04, 2017, 09:22:47 PM
It's way too dry.

Post Merge: December 04, 2017, 09:39:32 PM
Probably nothing will come of this cold air mass. There is no moisture. Our best chance is a stray clipper, which will, at best, produce a dusting for most locations. This is the same for the entire Ohio Valley and Midwest. As soon as the moisture arrives, it will be too warm for us to receive any wintry precip. And the chances for moisture look minimal out to two weeks. Glad we're getting a soaker tomorrow.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: harlequin on December 04, 2017, 10:07:16 PM
Not in our neck of the woods, but this is the first real lake effect snow event of the season I believe. It's the first winter where Lake Effect Snow Warnings and associated advisories have been consolidated into the Lake Effect Snow Warning. I will miss how easy it was to differentiate on the NWS hazards map, but I get it.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 04, 2017, 10:23:29 PM
It's way too dry.

Post Merge: December 04, 2017, 09:39:32 PM
Probably nothing will come of this cold air mass. There is no moisture. Our best chance is a stray clipper, which will, at best, produce a dusting for most locations. This is the same for the entire Ohio Valley and Midwest. As soon as the moisture arrives, it will be too warm for us to receive any wintry precip. And the chances for moisture look minimal out to two weeks. Glad we're getting a soaker tomorrow.
yeah trough just to Far east

Post Merge: December 04, 2017, 10:24:52 PM
Pattern is just dilly dilly.....  meh
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: justinmundie on December 04, 2017, 10:59:51 PM
So - the accum maps are literally going country by county now. Pretty obvious where Shelby and Davidson counties are, huh?

(http://i63.tinypic.com/qso95y.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 04, 2017, 11:20:36 PM
GFS vs NAM..... wtf???

Deep South scores big on NAM

[attachimg=1]

[attachimg=2]

Post Merge: December 04, 2017, 11:35:26 PM
Weekend precipitation will shape up to be mainly a Plateau and eastern Mtns. event. In lower elevations like Knoxville, this will be one of those systems where we see the blue on the radar but nothing is falling because the dry air evaporates the snow before it gets to the ground. Hope some folks above 800m can cash in. For the rest of us in middle and east TN, we will probably just see some flakes flying.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: dwagner88 on December 05, 2017, 06:24:11 AM
I'm supposed to be running the Santa Hustle half marathon in Sevierville Sunday morning. A couple of years ago it was 65 at the start. This year it appears that it will be in the low teens with some snow on the ground. Ouch. That will not only be by far the coldest race I've ever run, it will be one of the coldest outdoor runs period. I've never run in single digits.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2017, 07:05:18 AM
Looks like a good weekend to take the Wrangler into the mountains above Cosby and catch some snow action.  It's always interesting to see the gradual change in the winter weather conditions driving from my home at 1100ft to areas near Cosby Campground around 2500ft. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on December 05, 2017, 08:19:37 AM
Nice squall line passed through in the wee hours this morning. It was accompanied by lightning and thunder, and the returns were intense on radar when I checked it at the time.

Now, for the CAA to start doing its work today. It looks chilly by this evening.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 05, 2017, 10:05:26 AM
GFS and Euro going just about bone dry on what was to potentially be the first flakes of the year. Cold and dry are the buzz words until the PNA ridge relaxes some.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: snowdog on December 05, 2017, 10:50:43 AM
GFS and Euro going just about bone dry on what was to potentially be the first flakes of the year. Cold and dry are the buzz words until the PNA ridge relaxes some.

Ground temps will be ready to accept our first snowfall of the season on Christmas Eve.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: @NashSevereWx on December 05, 2017, 11:26:07 AM
Free Euro at weathermodels.com you guys.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clay on December 05, 2017, 11:27:23 AM
Not too worried at this point. You'll never nail down the specifics of each shortwave at this stage of the game. With Pac ridge locked in and NW flow dominating, I'm still bullish on our first flizzard before New Year.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2017, 11:49:26 AM
GFS and Euro going just about bone dry on what was to potentially be the first flakes of the year. Cold and dry are the buzz words until the PNA ridge relaxes some.
were not going get much with this pattern other outside flurries.  Trough got to retrograde west some . Ready for big dog
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on December 05, 2017, 12:03:14 PM
Seems like dry cold patterns in December are more the norm anyway than a pattern that really produces a big storm.

That's what I've observed.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Coach B on December 05, 2017, 12:51:53 PM
Seems like dry cold patterns in December are more the norm anyway than a pattern that really produces a big storm.

That's what I've observed.

You know, now that I think back you are right. There have been several cold periods in December in my lifetime but very few truly significant winter storms. December averages a full 10 degrees colder than March yet March averages more snowfall. Something about the wavelengths in the hemispheric patterns I believe.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2017, 01:22:22 PM
You know, now that I think back you are right. There have been several cold periods in December in my lifetime but very few truly significant winter storms. December averages a full 10 degrees colder than March yet March averages more snowfall. Something about the wavelengths in the hemispheric patterns I believe.

That's also true of the big December Arctic outbreaks of 1983 & 1989.  Temps plunged to zero and below even as far south as KY and TN, but all I remember with both is light snow (1983), and some freezing rain (1989) where I lived in Kentucky.  Neither amounted to much, despite the severity of the cold air. 

Oh, to live near one of the Great Lakes--where all you need is cold air over the water to get snow. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Crockett on December 05, 2017, 01:28:07 PM
Maybe I'm in the minority, but I'd rather have cold air in December than in February. At least it feels like Christmas. Our Christmas parade was Saturday and folks were out in shorts and flip-flops. It felt like Christmas in Orlando. So I'll take the upcoming pattern, even though it's looking increasingly dry.

Now, with that said, I'd rather have a pattern like December '11 (or was it '10? the years run together). We got two 6-inch-plus snows in December here on the plateau that month, one of them coming late Christmas eve into Christmas morning.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2017, 01:38:43 PM
That's also true of the big December Arctic outbreaks of 1983 & 1989.  Temps plunged to zero and below even as far south as KY and TN, but all I remember with both is light snow (1983), and some freezing rain (1989) where I lived in Kentucky.  Neither amounted to much, despite the severity of the cold air. 

Oh, to live near one of the Great Lakes--where all you need is cold air over the water to get snow.
december 1989 we actually got couple inches  snow Christmas Eve night least west tn.  That came during when temps started  to modify from the massive arctic outbreak we had earlier that month. So we got white Christmas
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 05, 2017, 01:43:57 PM
There is still time for the models to correct themselves by the weekend. I am confident enough to forecast upwards of a half inch for some residents on the Plateau near the TN/KY border, possibly around the Jamestown area. Here in Knox we will only see some flurries. This kind of clipper tends to skip the East TN Valley.

Post Merge: December 05, 2017, 01:50:20 PM
A similar clipper is forecast to pass through next Tuesday. I would not be surprised if we see more precip out of that system than the one this weekend. It looks like there's more energy and thus greater potential. The temperature gradient over the 48 hour period from Mon-Tues is steeper. I would cross my fingers for something to come out of this system.

I recall in December 2010, a surprise clipper passed through Nashville an produced at least 2". Seemed to come out of nowhere. Forecasts for these systems are constantly changing. Since we have the cold air necessary for December snow, I am more hopeful.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2017, 01:57:05 PM
december 1989 we actually got couple inches  snow Christmas Eve night least west tn.  That came during when temps started  to modify from the massive arctic outbreak we had earlier that month. So we got white Christmas

Further east, it was mainly freezing rain & drizzle.  We had an ice Christmas.   :P
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Coach B on December 05, 2017, 03:02:35 PM
I'd rather have a pattern like December '11 (or was it '10? the years run together). We got two 6-inch-plus snows in December here on the plateau that month, one of them coming late Christmas eve into Christmas morning.
It was 2010. Nashville even had 4.5" of snow for the month and snow fell on seven different days.

I enjoy snow best in the heart of winter from Christmas thru the first week or two of February. I like it to hang around for several days. Before and after this period I'd just as soon it be dry and 75. :)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Beth on December 05, 2017, 03:25:26 PM
This picture was Dec. 2010 about a week or two before Christmas. In fact we got two good snows before Christmas. I donít think Nashville got as much as we did in Dickson.   ::snowman::

Post Merge: December 05, 2017, 03:27:27 PM
Night time with Christmas lights!

Post Merge: December 05, 2017, 03:28:50 PM
These were made on Dec12 2010
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 05, 2017, 04:21:04 PM
GFS has oh so slightly crept south on the 18z run. Still expecting the Plateau to see some accumulation.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: skillsweather on December 05, 2017, 07:47:41 PM
I dont even see any models showing any precip for us at all on Friday and Saturday.. Idk maybe im just stupid. But its like all the models show is the precip with the low in the Carolina's and along that area.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: WXHD on December 05, 2017, 08:28:29 PM
I dont even see any models showing any precip for us at all on Friday and Saturday.. Idk maybe im just stupid. But its like all the models show is the precip with the low in the Carolina's and along that area.

Ain't nothing coming our way. We're encouraged by an early model setup...... I hope.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2017, 08:36:04 PM
Ain't nothing coming our way. We're encouraged by an early model setup...... I hope.
whats there to be encouraged by with this crappy pattern were stuck in... be lucky to even see token flakes with this set up.... :(
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Charles L. on December 05, 2017, 08:37:36 PM
whats there to be encouraged by with this crappy pattern were stuck in... be lucky to even see token flakes with this set up.... :(

You already  ::cliff::?
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 05, 2017, 08:42:21 PM
You already  ::cliff::?
no way   not yet.... ;)... hoping for a pna relaxation ike curt did mention little earlier......  cant remember many goodwinter storms with a stoutly positive pna be honest...
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clint on December 05, 2017, 09:00:16 PM
no way   not yet.... ;)... hoping for a pna relaxation ike curt did mention little earlier......  cant remember many goodwinter storms with a stoutly positive pna be honest...

You can always snow chase to Montgomery Al this weekend. The NAM is showing snow from New Orleans across to Mobile up to Montgomery, then through North Georgia. Crazy...LOL
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 05, 2017, 09:15:41 PM
whats there to be encouraged by with this crappy pattern were stuck in... be lucky to even see token flakes with this set up.... :(

It's early December in the mid-South.  Can't expect too much this early in the game.  The current situation is more promising than the last two years, though.  At least we have a good resivoir of cold air to draw from, unlike last year.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 05, 2017, 09:17:36 PM
You can always snow chase to Montgomery Al this weekend. The NAM is showing snow from New Orleans across to Mobile up to Montgomery, then through North Georgia. Crazy...LOL

NAM has loosened up on that one. Was fun to follow for a couple days, though.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: skillsweather on December 05, 2017, 09:36:52 PM
Ain't nothing coming our way. We're encouraged by an early model setup...... I hope.
What you mean? Even OHX was calling for snow Friday night. So something supposedly was coming but its like on all the models theres no precip at all for us so i dont see where its coming from. I think someone posted a model awhile back of like a low over us but now its gone.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on December 05, 2017, 10:35:21 PM
Meanwhile in far west Texas.

TXZ074-061100-
/O.UPG.KMAF.WS.A.0001.171206T1200Z-171207T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMAF.WS.W.0001.171206T1200Z-171207T1200Z/
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
Including the city of Alpine
312 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during the morning commute on Thursday. Total snow
  accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 7
  inches, are expected.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 05, 2017, 10:41:07 PM
00Z GFS and NAM showing nothing
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 06, 2017, 04:08:59 AM
00Z GFS and NAM showing nothing
yeah this pattern is absolutely  ::sleeping:: ::sleeping::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 06, 2017, 08:17:40 AM
It is snowing somewhere. . .

http://www.wildernesspines.com/LiveCam.htm (http://www.wildernesspines.com/LiveCam.htm)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clint on December 06, 2017, 08:34:33 AM
I know it's the 6z GFS and in fantasy land... but, just in time for Christmas...

(https://i.imgur.com/fptEBKn.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 06, 2017, 09:10:48 AM
NAM has come roaring back with its fantasy storm
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Cody on December 06, 2017, 10:53:22 AM
Mexico is about to get an awesome snow!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Eric on December 06, 2017, 11:00:01 AM
NAM has come roaring back with its fantasy storm
12z GFS with a completely different look.  Not surprising, though, when you have the schizo American model suites fighting over a solution only 4 days away.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 06, 2017, 12:13:59 PM
Euro, CMC, and NAM all in agreement that Hattiesburg to Atlanta a good bet for an at or above freezing 1-4 inch snowfall.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mamMATTus on December 06, 2017, 03:25:41 PM
Euro, CMC, and NAM all in agreement that Hattiesburg to Atlanta a good bet for an at or above freezing 1-4 inch snowfall.

Unbelievable. Honestly when it happens that far south it feels like a direct slap in the face.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Eric on December 06, 2017, 04:02:44 PM
Often, the southern states get the first snowfall of the year.  Happened in Shreveport, Birmingham, and even Atlanta several times before.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 06, 2017, 08:49:55 PM
+PNA will ease to neutral by mid-month. Hoping for a major precipitation event. GFS is targeting something big around the 20th. Will probably be a rain event this far south but hopefully we can have a front pushing on the back side that drops some snow over the state.
Title: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 06, 2017, 09:48:38 PM
0z Nam in its normal fashion- went from ďall outĒ on the southern snow to less than impressive.

0z gfs was static- not impressive EXCEPT for 1-3 inches in the New Orleans area. Kinda cool to see snow down there.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 06, 2017, 10:00:28 PM
0z Nam in its normal fashion- went from ďall outĒ on the southern snow to less than impressive.

I hope it snows in the Deep South. Would love to see it happen
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 07, 2017, 07:00:50 AM
I hope it snows in the Deep South. Would love to see it happen

I'm sure there are snow crazed peeps down there, as well, who would love to see snow in December.  Parts of Alabama are under a snow advisory for 1/2 to 1 inch of snow.  Good for them.   ::applause::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 07, 2017, 07:50:09 AM
It looks to be super bone dry going forward ...

Post Merge: December 07, 2017, 07:52:58 AM
Around or just before Christmas. Models try to zonal so maybe we can reshuffle the cards and get better hand with pattern... cause this winter looks to be front loaded ... need score next six weeks
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 07, 2017, 09:29:18 AM
Ok now it's weather time in Tennessee. Pattern change is going to bring us the goods, time to find our first good snow before years end. Jan needs to score big, here's to a big storm to start showing up soon to give us at least something to keep up with before Christmas. I am all focused now, bring it on! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 07, 2017, 10:12:07 AM
Looks like the Smokies could see a significant snow with next Tuesday's system. 

(http://i68.tinypic.com/317f59z.png)

Post Merge: December 07, 2017, 10:29:19 AM
Ok now it's weather time in Tennessee. Pattern change is going to bring us the goods, time to find our first good snow before years end. Jan needs to score big, here's to a big storm to start showing up soon to give us at least something to keep up with before Christmas. I am all focused now, bring it on! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

I like your attitude Snowman!  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Frank P on December 07, 2017, 02:45:47 PM
Living on the beach in Biloxi I always follow this site during the winter and have been able to see some nice snowfall events up in Nashville, where my son lives... hoping I can catch an inch of snow down here in Biloxi in the morning... save me an 8 hour drive to TN!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Coach B on December 07, 2017, 02:47:38 PM
Living on the beach in Biloxi I always follow this site during the winter and have been able to see some nice snowfall events up in Nashville, where my son lives... hoping I can catch an inch of snow down here in Biloxi in the morning... save me an 8 hour drive to TN!

The 18Z looks really good down that way. Don't think I've ever seen anything like it.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Frank P on December 07, 2017, 02:56:16 PM
The 18Z looks really good down that way. Don't think I've ever seen anything like it.
Same here... areas to my immediate north could get several inches of wet snow... so even if I donít get any, a short drive in my Jeep could give me my snow fix for December at least... hoping!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 07, 2017, 03:41:36 PM
Pulling for the NAM.  It has the most interesting solution of bringing the snow shield as far west as all the TN counties bordering NC.  Still wouldn't be much, but just some snow falling from the sky would be a nice treat.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on December 07, 2017, 04:12:43 PM
Just to rub it in for us...

Quote
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson MS
244 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...


.Light rain will gradually mix with then change over to light snow
tonight and Friday morning. Snow accumulations of two inches with
higher amounts are expected across portions of southeast
Mississippi.

MSZ055>058-062>066-072>074-080445-
/O.UPG.KJAN.WW.Y.0002.171208T0300Z-171208T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KJAN.WS.W.0002.171208T0300Z-171208T1800Z/
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-
Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
Including the cities of Magee, Mendenhall, Taylorsville, Raleigh,
Bay Springs, Heidelberg, Quitman, Stonewall, Shubuta, Brookhaven,
Monticello, New Hebron, Prentiss, Bassfield, Collins,
Mount Olive, Laurel, Columbia, West Hattiesburg, Lumberton,
Purvis, and Hattiesburg
244 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during the morning commute on Friday. Total snow
  accumulations of two inches with higher amounts are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central Mississippi, east central
  Mississippi, south central Mississippi and southeast
  Mississippi.

* WHEN...9 PM today to noon Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Look for significant reductions in
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Eric on December 07, 2017, 04:36:27 PM
Over-running, FTW.  Congrats to them.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 07, 2017, 04:37:04 PM
Just to rub it in for us...

I remember long range models showing snow down to the Gulf a few weeks ago, and I laughed.  Not so funny now. . .

Pretty amazing to see snow about to fall that far south so early in winter. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 07, 2017, 04:44:18 PM
They have earned it  :D

Soon, it will be our turn. East TN is a due a big snowfall.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 07, 2017, 04:49:15 PM
2 inches of snow forecast for Hattiesburg, MS.  I wouldn't want to be anywhere near a grocery store there tonight!!   ::panic::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 07, 2017, 04:51:43 PM
18Z NAM snowfall has shifted north to Chatt!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 07, 2017, 05:05:57 PM
Per MRX:

Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
524 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest suite of model guidance continues to shift further to
the northwest with the precipitation shield on Friday. The
previous forecast was already near advisory conditions for Clay
and Cherokee counties in Southwest North Carolina, therefore,
decided to go ahead with a Winter Weather Advisory for these two
counties. If the latest model trends continue with the 00z run,
will need to expand the advisory further to the north and west.

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 07, 2017, 05:07:56 PM
NAM has been dead on since early this week. GFS has been lagging behind and just now picked up on this forecast. If the NAM continues to trend northward, the mountains in East TN will get a huge snow event. Even Chattanooga and Knoxville could pick up some snow.

But I would hate for it to shift north and for this event to be a bust for the Deep South.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 07, 2017, 05:18:35 PM
The latest run of the GFS (18Z) has also shifted the precipitation field northwest, and now puts significant amounts making it just over the mountains.   ::pondering::

(Significant meaning measurable)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clay on December 07, 2017, 05:42:16 PM
2 inches of snow forecast for Hattiesburg, MS.  I wouldn't want to be anywhere near a grocery store there tonight!!   ::panic::
Snow along the MS Gulf Coast is one thing, but flakes could fly all the way down to Corpus and Galveston. Early December? Quite exceptional. I'm fine chalking up an L this early in the season to witness that. Wow.  ::cold::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 07, 2017, 05:55:20 PM
Looking at  the HRR, I think the area from north of Lake Ponchartrain to Merdian Ms look to get best bang for their buck with the transition happening at the perfect time 9pm to 8am. The lack of sunlight might actually help with temps nearing freezing as well as accumulation. Most moves into the north GA area with prime heating and temps above freezing.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clint on December 07, 2017, 06:14:55 PM
Looking at  the HRR, I think the area from north of Lake Ponchartrain to Merdian Ms look to get best bang for their buck with the transition happening at the perfect time 9pm to 8am. The lack of sunlight might actually help with temps nearing freezing as well as accumulation. Most moves into the north GA area with prime heating and temps above freezing.

That's incredible... I have relatives that live in Covington La, north of Lake Pontchartrain and I don't recall they ever receiving any snow in over 50 years.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 07, 2017, 06:18:23 PM
That's incredible... I have relatives that live in Covington La, north of Lake Pontchartrain and I don't recall they ever receiving any snow in over 50 years.

Take a look back to December 11, 2008.  Very similar pattern led to 6-9 inches of snow from Baton Rouge to SW Mississippi. It came northeastward, but wasnít near as strong due to radiational effects of the sun melting away most appreciable accumulation.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clint on December 07, 2017, 06:53:20 PM
Take a look back to December 11, 2008.  Very similar pattern led to 6-9 inches of snow from Baton Rouge to SW Mississippi. It came northeastward, but wasnít near as strong due to radiational effects of the sun melting away most appreciable accumulation.

Thanks Curt! I didn't realize this event happened. Here's the youtube video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ha2d8-a_ns0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ha2d8-a_ns0)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: bugalou on December 07, 2017, 07:12:12 PM
I see we are getting winter started right here in Memphis with WSW in Southern MS already. Maybe next week the I-44 corridor will get a blizzard. :D

Only (mostly) kidding of course, I'm glad its just time to start chasing winter weather.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: StormNine on December 07, 2017, 07:27:36 PM
Snow is flying at Alamo.  Areas just north and west of San Antonio are getting enough snow to have a snowball fight according to some friends that I have in the area.

This is the first snow in this area since 2010 and some parts of South TX may get their first measurable snow since 2004. 

Post Merge: December 07, 2017, 07:52:17 PM
2-3 inch snowfall reports in northern San Antonio metro and over towards the south Austin area.   
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 07, 2017, 08:39:50 PM
Current HRRR looking good for at least far east TN to see some flakes flying tomorrow.  Maybe a dusting for the foothills?  Guess we'll see where the morning models waffle. Ha. Waffles for breakfast.  Sounds good to me. . .
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Michael on December 07, 2017, 09:55:41 PM
Its the GEFS, but that NW trend!
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171208/915399b7bc8e8ea7f5e90409fa23a426.jpg)

Or how about NAM 3k, NW trend!
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171208/2e113ccd8565c678ac6afacf5e1aad7d.jpg)

Just a little more so the East Tn Valley can get some decent action!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Winter 2017-18
Post by: cleTNwx on December 07, 2017, 10:12:32 PM
Looks like we might eek out an inch here in Cleveland.  Fingers crossed that NW trend continues!

I love tracking these things!  Monday looked good, then the bottom dropped out, but here comes the moisture back!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 07, 2017, 10:19:20 PM
NWS has 1-3" forecast for Gatlinburg.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on December 07, 2017, 10:34:02 PM
Friends in College Station, TX just posted pic of snow on the ground at their house (maybe an inch by the looks of it).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: skillsweather on December 07, 2017, 10:45:17 PM
As long as we can have a decent snow event (2-4 inch area wide) before the end of January ill be happy honestly. I just want a long lasting snow not a late feb or march snow that melts the next sunrise. (but ill take them too if you want to give them to us snow god) :)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on December 07, 2017, 11:04:32 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171208/230c79f0ff68faabaa74a3a230dd0c2f.jpg)

From College Station about an hour ago!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 07, 2017, 11:07:56 PM
[attachimg=1]

Polk County cashes in according to the GFS.

I wonder if NWS should update the Knoxville forecast? Models are in agreement we might get some measurable snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clay on December 08, 2017, 12:51:17 AM
Snow has made it to the Texas Gulf Coast. Even light accums on the NW side of Houston metro on social media.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 08, 2017, 01:28:24 AM
06Z HRRR with 2" for Knoxville.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 08, 2017, 04:53:56 AM
Just walked the dogs and saw flurries illuminated by the porch light.

Very interesting forecast for today.  HRRR is very bullish, bringing measureable snow as far west as Knoxville.  GFS also pretty aggressive.  NAM, on the other hand, keeps most of the measureable snow confined to the foothills and mountains.

MRX acknowledges its a challenging forecast.  They are going with the NAM, and keeping 1-2" of snow in the foothills and more in the mountains.  Looks to be a radar watching day.  Also, interesting to see Asheville now under a Winter Storm Warning, with 3-5 inches of snow expected there.   

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 08, 2017, 05:39:21 AM
Just walked the dogs and saw flurries illuminated by the porch light.

Very interesting forecast for today.  HRRR is very bullish, bringing measureable snow as far west as Knoxville.  GFS also pretty aggressive.  NAM, on the other hand, keeps most of the measureable snow confined to the foothills and mountains.

MRX acknowledges its a challenging forecast.  They are going with the NAM, and keeping 1-2" of snow in the foothills and more in the mountains.  Looks to be a radar watching day.  Also, interesting to see Asheville now under a Winter Storm Warning, with 3-5 inches of snow expected there.

We'll probably see flakes flying intermittently today, but I doubt we'll pick up accumulation here in Knoxville.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Uncle Nasty on December 08, 2017, 06:00:15 AM
NWS has 1-3" forecast for Gatlinburg.

Cool. Just got off work and we have very light snow in Ooltewah. Heading to a cabin in Gatlinburg up Ski Mountain Rd at noon. Hopefully we see a little white stuff.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 08, 2017, 06:21:16 AM
Light, but steady snow falling on the way to work this morning.  Its too light to accumulate on anything but car tops.  Putting models aside and just looking at the radar, there is a good slug of moisture heading north out of central Alabama toward east Tennessee.  it will be interesting to see if it holds together, and exactly where it moves through during the day.

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php (https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php)

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Charles L. on December 08, 2017, 06:27:13 AM
I hate seeing all these snow pictures come in for areas south of us. Our "friends" over at TW don't deserve any snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 08, 2017, 06:29:01 AM
I hate seeing all these snow pictures come in for areas south of us. Our "friends" over at TW don't deserve any snow.
or southernwx   for that matter  lol
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 08, 2017, 06:36:30 AM
Interesting that the 11Z HRRR brings one wave of snow into east Tennessee during the day, then another renewed wave of light snow overnight tonight.  It does keep most of the accumulating snow east of I-75 with around 1-2 inches southeast of Knoxville, and possibly up to an inch in south Knoxville.  However, considering temperatures will be marginal for accumulation, 1-2 inches may fall, but not necessarily stick.  I'd say a dusting to an inch is a possibility, especially the further east you go.   
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: harlequin on December 08, 2017, 06:38:35 AM
My sister is in grad school in Jackson, MS and she's got what looks to be an inch so far.  They weren't expecting that. Actually, make that 2".

4" in McComb, MS. 4" also reported in parts of Corpus Christi, TX.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: cgauxknox on December 08, 2017, 06:41:42 AM
I'm watching this weekend closely.  I have to leave Knoxville to drive to Bristol first thing Saturday morning (leaving Knox around 6:30), and will be headed back to Knoxville in the afternoon.  I see absolutely no chance of sufficient snow to have any impact on the interstate and I'll only be on the main surface streets, but I'm always conscious of those freak events that nobody sees coming.  Winter survival kit is going into the truck today!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 08, 2017, 06:53:28 AM
My sister is in grad school in Jackson, MS and she's got what looks to be an inch so far.  They weren't expecting that. Actually, make that 2".

4" in McComb, MS. 4" also reported in parts of Corpus Christi, TX.

Wow...that is so cool to see that in early December.  Heat Miser let his brother give Southtown an early Christmas gift, after all.   

(https://moviewriternyu.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/snow-miser.jpg)  (https://tse4.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.8KbH9tcyohrdJSqaT16t0QEfDZ&pid=Api)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 08, 2017, 06:59:50 AM
My sister is in grad school in Jackson, MS and she's got what looks to be an inch so far.  They weren't expecting that. Actually, make that 2".

4" in McComb, MS. 4" also reported in parts of Corpus Christi, TX.
thats sweet for this time of year... know kids are loving it... whats sad about it is... watch it be more snow than us by far this year... lol
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 08, 2017, 07:06:57 AM
Radar returns are increasing in southeast TN--heading up the Great Valley.  Feels like one of those weather events when a surprise could happen.  Temperatures are just below freezing (30-32F), but if snow can fall at a decent rate today, temps won't be able to rise much in areas where a heavier band could set up. 

(https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/N0R/MRX_loop.gif)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: justinmundie on December 08, 2017, 07:08:30 AM
Residents of Birmingham are benefiting from my snow curse. I donít move there until the summer, so naturally they get their snowstorm 6 months before I arrive
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: EastTNWX on December 08, 2017, 07:14:13 AM
Thread for Tennessee winter storm? First one of the season?!?
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: dwagner88 on December 08, 2017, 07:14:53 AM
Getting it pretty good in Ducktown right now. About an inch on the ground. Roads are wet, 29 degrees. It was dry in Chattanooga when I left this morning.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: snowdog on December 08, 2017, 07:17:25 AM
Residents of Birmingham are benefiting from my snow curse. I donít move there until the summer, so naturally they get their snowstorm 6 months before I arrive

Winter 2019 will be one for the record books here in BNA. Thanks Mundie, always taking one for the team.

Also, my brother lives near Canton, Ga and said it is pounding right now.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Eric on December 08, 2017, 07:57:49 AM
(http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/acus11.1712081355.gif)

Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1787 
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 
0755 AM CST FRI DEC 08 2017 
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WEST-CENTRAL MS...CENTRAL AL...NORTHWEST GA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW   
 
VALID 081355Z - 081700Z 
 
SUMMARY...OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL (I.E. SNOWFALL 
RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR) ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL 
HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AL AND NORTHWEST GA 
 
DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT TEMPERATURES 
ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND NORTHWEST GA HAVE COOLED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 
SNOW. SEVERAL SITES ARE ALREADY REPORTING MODERATE SNOW WITH 
ISOLATED/BRIEF INSTANCES OF HEAVY SNOW (I.E. VISIBILITY LESS THAN 
1/4SM) ALSO BEING REPORTED. RELATIVELY HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION 
IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS/SOUTHWEST AL AND ITS 
NORTHEASTERLY MOTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE IT INTO CENTRAL AL AND 
NORTHWEST GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT, SNOWFALL RATES 
MAY OCCASIONALLY TOP 1 INCH PER HOUR IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. 
SUBFREEZING SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MEI NORTHEASTWARD TO RMG, KEEPING AREAS SOUTH 
OF THIS LINE PREDOMINATELY RAIN. 
 
..MOSIER.. 12/08/2017 

Big winners.  Congrats to those folks.  And I bet TW is a dumpsterfire right now.
Title: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on December 08, 2017, 08:08:13 AM
(http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/acus11.1712081355.gif)

Big winners.  Congrats to those folks.  And I bet TW is a dumpsterfire right now.

Actually, that forum is surprisingly pretty dead- it seems it never recovered from the forum crash last year, when most of the active membership migrated to the SouthernWx upstart after which TW was rebooted under new management. All the prolific posters stayed at SW. And, activity at TW remains rather scant by comparison.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Eric on December 08, 2017, 08:09:55 AM
Actually, that forum is surprisingly pretty dead- it seems it never recovered from the forum crash last year, when most of the active membership migrated to the SouthernWx upstart and TW was rebooted under new management. All the prolific posters stayed at SW. And, posts at TW remain rather scant.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Wow, that's surprising.  Gotta think we're fortunate to have reliable infrastructure in place. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: dwagner88 on December 08, 2017, 08:16:46 AM
We are absolutely getting 1Ē/hr rates in Ducktown now. Itís really hammering down. Up to 2.5Ē now. Roads still mostly wet but getting slushy.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on December 08, 2017, 08:16:53 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171208/c3d87e5aefaa368f67470dc48ea865a2.jpg)

Taken in Pearl Ms. just east of Jackson.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on December 08, 2017, 08:18:06 AM
Wow, that's surprising.  Gotta think we're fortunate to have reliable infrastructure in place.

There have been times I've checked that forum and a day or two had passed without any posts at all. On their December thread, there have only been a handful of posts since last night on this current event. I'm sure by contrast SW is page after page of posts for the same time frame.

Post Merge: December 08, 2017, 08:18:28 AM
We are absolutely getting 1Ē/hr rates in Ducktown now. Itís really hammering down. Up to 2.5Ē now. Roads still mostly wet but getting slushy.

Nice- congrats!

Post Merge: December 08, 2017, 08:18:48 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171208/c3d87e5aefaa368f67470dc48ea865a2.jpg)

Taken in Pearl Ms. just east of Jackson.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Wow...
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 08, 2017, 08:32:20 AM
We are absolutely getting 1Ē/hr rates in Ducktown now. Itís really hammering down. Up to 2.5Ē now. Roads still mostly wet but getting slushy.

Congrats on the snow surprise.  I have to wonder how much you might end up with--and MRX may be beefing up the totals in that area if high snowfall rates continue.  You're already over the 1-2" forecast for down there.   Warning criteria, perhaps?


Post Merge: December 08, 2017, 08:35:23 AM
Well...looks like it already happened...

Quote
National Weather Service Morristown TN
858 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Will issue an update to put Cherokee and Clay counties in a Winter
Storm warning.
Reports are coming in of 2+ inches in that area.
Latest model cross sections show ageostrophic vertical
circulations and midlevel frontogenesis persisting in that area
into the evening, along with deep saturation. Accumulations will
be pushed up to the 4-6 inch range for those counties.

The western extent of snow accumulation is still uncertain, but
observations across much of northern AL and NW GA indicate that
dry air below 700 mb seen in the 12Z OHX sounding is having an
effect, as much of what is show by radar in that area is not being
reported by surface obs. With a W-NW flow of dry air in that layer
continuing through the day, Valley accumulations are still
expected to be light, although the E-W gradient of accumulation
will be very tight. Will leave the advisory and SPS areas
untouched but continue to monitor trends.

&&
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Coach B on December 08, 2017, 08:40:57 AM
Getting pretty crazy to our south. I have seen reports of nearly 6" in southern Mississippi and as much as 4" already in Bibb county Alabama.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Eric on December 08, 2017, 08:44:27 AM
Getting pretty crazy to our south. I have seen reports of nearly 6" in southern Mississippi and as much as 4" already in Bibb county Alabama.

Definitely over-performing.  Awesome to see especially that far south.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Coach B on December 08, 2017, 08:46:37 AM
Definitely over-performing.  Awesome to see especially that far south.

The NAM totals look like they are actually going to pan out. Wish that would happen for us occasionally. :)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: StormNine on December 08, 2017, 08:51:51 AM
5 inches of snow occurred overnight in Corpus Christi.  San Antonio reported 1-2 inches and some 2-3 inch amounts in Comal and Hays Counties between San Antonio and Austin.  For some the most snow since either 1985 or 2004. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: cloudcrash619 on December 08, 2017, 09:15:43 AM
I wanna know who in Birmingham sold their soul for this. 2000-2009 no accumulating snow at all, and it's been wild since then.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 08, 2017, 09:21:32 AM
I wanna know who in Birmingham sold their soul for this. 2000-2009 no accumulating snow at all, and it's been wild since then.

What's even more incredible to me is that Birmingham received something like 16" of snow in the 1993 Superstorm.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 08, 2017, 09:29:41 AM
Looks like winter might take a break for a couple of weeks around Christmas
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: StormNine on December 08, 2017, 10:55:19 AM
Quote
Hey @NWSGray @NWSChicago @NWSDesMoines We think we found something you are missing!  Let us know how to return it to you! pic.twitter.com/bMP05bc24G

I like that post by the NWS of Corpus Christi. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 08, 2017, 10:57:33 AM
I cracked up.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: bugalou on December 08, 2017, 11:55:07 AM
Looks like winter might take a break for a couple of weeks around Christmas

As it likes to do around that time.  I noticed that on the model runs last night.  Our neck of the woods is westerly city with the cold air on the high plains or the west.

Post Merge: December 08, 2017, 11:59:15 AM
I hate seeing all these snow pictures come in for areas south of us. Our "friends" over at TW don't deserve any snow.

I am with this guy.  In the south one must be greedy with your snow and its dog eat dog.  I haven't been to TW is years though - they largely ignore Memphis.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: justinmundie on December 08, 2017, 12:26:22 PM
Iíve got reports of 4-6 inches in Hoover Alabama from family
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 08, 2017, 12:31:46 PM
Iíve got reports of 4-6 inches in Hoover Alabama from family

Wow! This storm has not underperformed anywhere.

More moisture continues to build, further increasing the potential for snow into the evening for East TN. Foot or more seems very feasible now up in the mtns.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 08, 2017, 12:32:51 PM
Iíve got reports of 4-6 inches in Hoover Alabama from family

Thatís 4 to 6 times their annual average so Iím guessing statistically speaking ha ha their chance of a repeat this winter is near zero
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on December 08, 2017, 12:45:49 PM
Don't worry the rest of us may get rain going forward. Next snow this close will probably be the I44 corridor lol. Hope the rest of us can cash in at some point this winter.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: wfrogge on December 08, 2017, 12:47:48 PM
Thatís 4 to 6 times their annual average so Iím guessing statistically speaking ha ha their chance of a repeat this winter is near zero

That is not how stats work.
Title: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 08, 2017, 12:48:57 PM
That is not how stats work.

Got it thanks- maybe I need to start adding tongue and cheek statistical chances to better clarify
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on December 08, 2017, 01:12:47 PM
That is not how stats work.

You don't say?!  Maybe, that's why he put "ha ha" in there.  ;D
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: bugalou on December 08, 2017, 01:33:08 PM
Thatís 4 to 6 times their annual average so Iím guessing statistically speaking ha ha their chance of a repeat this winter is near zero

Ahh yes the gambler's fallacy.  ::rofl::   Works for me, as it provides me with a paycheck to do what I love.  ;D*  (For those of you who do not know I work as an IT infrastructure architect for a large casino company).

*if you have a gambling problem please contact 1-800-522-4700 or see any employee at one of our casinos for help.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on December 08, 2017, 01:50:09 PM
Ahh yes the gambler's fallacy.  ::rofl::   Works for me, as it provides me with a paycheck to do what I love.  ;D*  (For those of you who do not know I work as an IT infrastructure architect for a large casino company).

*if you have a gambling problem please contact 1-800-522-4700 or see any employee at one of our casinos for help.

I have no problem with gambling, that could be the problem lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: snowdog on December 08, 2017, 02:20:27 PM
That front has stalled with moisture just riding up...north of a line from Montgomery to Atlanta should see 3 to 5", maybe more. Been snowing all day with what looks to be a few more hours of it.

My brother in Canton, Ga said they have around 3" right now.

Not bad for a Dec. snow in the deep south.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Coach B on December 08, 2017, 02:50:53 PM
Birmingham has officially reached 5" as of a little while ago. Its ripping between there and Montgomery now. SW NC highlands looks to be the jackpot zone.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: snowdog on December 08, 2017, 03:05:11 PM
(http://memegenerator.net/img/instances/38996281/im-not-saying-im-jealous-but-im-jealous.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Charles L. on December 08, 2017, 05:12:25 PM
I hate watching this unfold. Ugh. I will always be greedy when it comes to snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 08, 2017, 07:14:39 PM
I hate watching this unfold. Ugh. I will always be greedy when it comes to snow.

At least you're honest about it.   ;)  Perhaps we should have a Snow Lover's Anonymous Thread for those who just need a safe place to talk about it now and then.  ::lookaround::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 08, 2017, 08:35:43 PM
Several reports of thunder snow. Short term models crank things back up again tonight. Might be places end up with a foot. In Alabama. Give me a break. ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: StormNine on December 08, 2017, 08:39:32 PM
I hate watching this unfold. Ugh. I will always be greedy when it comes to snow.

I love the fact that South-Central TX and South TX got the snow.  Not so much about MS/AL/GA along I-20 getting it. 

Post Merge: December 08, 2017, 08:43:11 PM
I would be furious if I was in Raleigh, NC about this event. To miss this to your southwest, west, and then north is just horrible. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 08, 2017, 08:44:14 PM
Several reports of thunder snow. Short term models crank things back up again tonight. Might be places end up with a foot. In Alabama. Give me a break. ::bangingheadintowall::
we be lucky to see that much snow over the next 5 years here... our luck >:D
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Heath22 on December 08, 2017, 08:55:56 PM
I wanna know who in Birmingham sold their soul for this. 2000-2009 no accumulating snow at all, and it's been wild since then.

It is safe to say that since 2010, they have outdone southern middle TN by probably 4 to 1. Just blows my mind how it can never snow in this area. Always Nashville North and West or TN/ALA line south or Cumberland plateau and east.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 08, 2017, 08:59:50 PM
Several reports of thunder snow. Short term models crank things back up again tonight. Might be places end up with a foot. In Alabama. Give me a break. ::bangingheadintowall::
Ha Iím not sure anyoneís getting a foot but 3-5 inches was common from Jackson to the north side of Atlanta. Most roads werenít covered and marginal temps- but itís better than nothing. They seem to specialize in marginal temp events and wet snow thatís gone in 24 hours- so i donít mind waiting for better.

Gotta think good times are ahead...
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 08, 2017, 09:01:22 PM
reports north suburbs of atlanta pushing near foot ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 08, 2017, 09:01:48 PM
reports north suburbs of atlanta pushing near foot ::snowman::

Really where?
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 08, 2017, 09:05:08 PM
This is depressing
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 08, 2017, 09:10:52 PM
Really where?
hearing around mabelton ga... which is actually just nw of atlanta metro... weather thats true or not  who knows
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 08, 2017, 09:11:08 PM
(null)

Gotcha. I saw the most at 7 in a narrow band south of Rome GA. Atlanta proper wasnít bad at all per my office
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 08, 2017, 09:14:35 PM
lets just hope after the pattern relaxes just bit... going into newyear were dealt a better hand to provide us some winter storms...  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 08, 2017, 10:11:55 PM
Lots of 6 to 8 inch reports. Forecasts are for at least another 2 to 4 in a large area. Mobile Alabama has a heavy dusting. Earliest measurable snow in history of records.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: bugalou on December 09, 2017, 12:08:29 AM
I have no problem with gambling, that could be the problem lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Lol!  I added that bit because one can never be too careful with the internet/social media and one's career!

Sent from my P027 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: bugalou on December 09, 2017, 12:52:25 AM
Voodoo land GFS is showing a big cold air push around Xmas.  Looks kind of over runny/ice setup for some, but who knows at this range. Memphis does tend to do sleet historically if you want a 'white Christmas'.

Sent from my P027 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on December 09, 2017, 07:48:09 AM
OHX has flurries in the Nashville area today between 9:00 AM and Noon. I do see some returns coming out of western KY... weak clipper.

Itís not whatís been seen in areas to our south and east, but maybe some of us see some flakes today.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Charles L. on December 09, 2017, 08:10:22 AM
I am hoping to see some flurries today too. Will put me in the Christmas mood! ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: dwagner88 on December 09, 2017, 08:16:15 AM
Cartersville, Acworth, Emerson, and Canton were all close to or over a foot. Biggest snow for that area since the superstorm. What an amazing system. The forecast for that area from FFC was for up to an inch of snow. Ducktown wound up with around 6Ē. Their MRX forecast was for a 10% chance of flurries. Way to go NAM.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on December 09, 2017, 08:19:02 AM
This winter is the 100th anniversary of the winter of 1917-1918, which featured historic cold and snow. The below write up is KY-specific, but I believe it ranked among the snowiest in TN as well.

http://www.weather.gov/lmk/december_1917_january_1918

49Ē of snow fell in Louisville that December and January...




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: harlequin on December 09, 2017, 08:24:27 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DM3HzKmVQAADP6n.jpg)

The last time I got 2"+ was March 2015. Barely squeaked out an inch during the big January 2016 storm and got about 1.5" in January 2017, so I like the odds this year.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on December 09, 2017, 08:30:00 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DM3HzKmVQAADP6n.jpg)

The last time I got 2"+ was March 2015. Barely squeaked out an inch during the big January 2016 storm and got about 1.5" in January 2017, so I like the odds this year.

Thatís an interesting graphic. Iíd like to see that expanded out. Obviously, itís MEGís region.

I think the I-44 effect is evident, as percentage lines go up in that direction.   ;)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: cliftown04 on December 09, 2017, 08:38:24 AM
It's good to see some conversation starting up!  Here's to hoping me get a thread with many pages!!!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 09, 2017, 08:45:15 AM
Looks like we might see some snowflakes with this clipper this morning. Radar returns just to my north and west. At least I might see some snow flying a little bit here shortly. ::popcorn:: ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 09, 2017, 09:00:19 AM
Hope everyone at least sees some snow showers with the incoming clipper today.  I know it was difficult to see a major snow storm slip to our south of all places in December. 

At least it is only December 9th.  Lots of winter left, and this one has already proven to be unusual.  I think we'll all have more chances at seeing a significant winter weather event or three.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 09, 2017, 10:00:09 AM
dry air just eating what little moisture clipper had further se it comes.... >:D
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on December 09, 2017, 10:13:38 AM
I think the upper Plateau might get dusted.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: StormNine on December 09, 2017, 10:27:25 AM
We have some on and off again flurries here in Hopkinsville. If they would come down a little harder then we can have a full blown flizzard. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on December 09, 2017, 12:25:33 PM
Very light returns overhead. Clouds have lowered, but not seeing anything fall at this point.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on December 09, 2017, 12:28:35 PM
Ok- I do think Iím seeing some micro flakes floating around.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JHart on December 09, 2017, 12:34:40 PM
I just saw the first flakes of the season out here in Lascassas ... all eight of them. ::snow::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 09, 2017, 12:37:24 PM
could have been dandruff folks... with all this dry air... ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 09, 2017, 12:37:51 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171209/62fe0da104bd4559474aab0984959c4e.jpg)

Bet we are not done with cold and potential winter weather by a long shot
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 09, 2017, 01:37:23 PM
Wind starting to pick up here, and gusts increasing.  Sun disappearing behind a veil of lowering clouds. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clint on December 09, 2017, 02:58:58 PM
The Army vs Navy game in Philadelphia playing in the snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on December 09, 2017, 04:09:34 PM
Certainly a seasonal feel today at Franklinís Dickens Christmas festival under cold overcast conditions and the occasional flake.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 09, 2017, 04:16:23 PM
Love watching the Army-Navy battle every year.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mempho on December 09, 2017, 04:28:19 PM
Ha Iím not sure anyoneís getting a foot but 3-5 inches was common from Jackson to the north side of Atlanta. Most roads werenít covered and marginal temps- but itís better than nothing. They seem to specialize in marginal temp events and wet snow thatís gone in 24 hours- so i donít mind waiting for better.

Gotta think good times are ahead...
I can understand being snakebit and, to a certain extent, I've wondered if we were cursed in some way... However, you are on point, this is a marginal temp event and will be gone in a day.   It's not like we are missing out on our dream scenario here.

I would've loved to have seen the snow here but I can also be happy for some of the places that got the snow. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mempho on December 09, 2017, 04:32:03 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DM3HzKmVQAADP6n.jpg)

The last time I got 2"+ was March 2015. Barely squeaked out an inch during the big January 2016 storm and got about 1.5" in January 2017, so I like the odds this year.
Wild that the MEG CWA has such a wide variability in this.  A large area has a sub-30 probability up to an above 80 probability!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 09, 2017, 05:24:58 PM
I can understand being snakebit and, to a certain extent, I've wondered if we were cursed in some way... However, you are on point, this is a marginal temp event and will be gone in a day.   It's not like we are missing out on our dream scenario here.

I would've loved to have seen the snow here but I can also be happy for some of the places that got the snow. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

If I could pick a recent event, it would be to transfer March 2015 into January- take some serious cold and staying power.

As far as Megís graphics, weíve almost regularly scored over the 2 inch snow mark since 2004- minus the last couple of years locally. 2009 was the last time I saw double digits with some serious drifts. Before that it was well you guessed it- 1985. Every time I bring that year up I feel like Uncle Ricco from Napoleon Dynamite.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Coach B on December 09, 2017, 05:37:05 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DM3HzKmVQAADP6n.jpg)

The last time I got 2"+ was March 2015. Barely squeaked out an inch during the big January 2016 storm and got about 1.5" in January 2017, so I like the odds this year.
That's a neat map. I would think NE Mississippi would be much more likely to get a 2" snow than the Delta.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: bugalou on December 09, 2017, 06:00:31 PM
If I could pick a recent event, it would be to transfer March 2015 into January- take some serious cold and staying power.

As far as Megís graphics, weíve almost regularly scored over the 2 inch snow mark since 2004- minus the last couple of years locally. 2009 was the last time I saw double digits with some serious drifts. Before that it was well you guessed it- 1985. Every time I bring that year up I feel like Uncle Ricco from Napoleon Dynamite.

How much you want to make a bet I can throw a football over them mountains?
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: dwagner88 on December 09, 2017, 06:02:21 PM
Been snowing lightly in Sevierville for about an hour now. Not the type of snow that ever amounts to anything but itís nice to look at.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: skillsweather on December 09, 2017, 06:40:22 PM
after seeing the snow pics from this past storm it makes me want snow so bad. Like impatiently bad. :( Please let there be some snow this year ill go crazy if after what just happened and we miss out on all snow this year.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 09, 2017, 07:23:48 PM
Been snowing lightly in Sevierville for about an hour now. Not the type of snow that ever amounts to anything but itís nice to look at.

Welcome to my neck of the woods. . .

Plenty of snow showers around east TN this evening, and a stiff breeze to go along with it.  From the look of the radar, even Knoxville is in on the action.  A decent batch of snow flurries/showers is headed toward Sevierville from Knox County right now.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: dwagner88 on December 09, 2017, 08:49:00 PM
Welcome to my neck of the woods. . .

Plenty of snow showers around east TN this evening, and a stiff breeze to go along with it.  From the look of the radar, even Knoxville is in on the action.  A decent batch of snow flurries/showers is headed toward Sevierville from Knox County right now.
That was a decent batch! Really heavy snow for about 10 minutes has given everything a fresh dusting of white. Will be nice for the race tomorrow. I just hope there arenít too many slick spots. The roads got really wet.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 10, 2017, 07:25:50 AM
That was a decent batch! Really heavy snow for about 10 minutes has given everything a fresh dusting of white. Will be nice for the race tomorrow. I just hope there arenít too many slick spots. The roads got really wet.

Temps were in the lower and mid 20's for the Santa Hustle this morning.  Hope ya'll had something hot to get the blood flowing.  No wind, at least, so wind chills shouldn't have been an issue.   
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mempho on December 10, 2017, 08:16:13 AM


Before that it was well you guessed it- 1985. Every time I bring that year up I feel like Uncle Ricco from Napoleon Dynamite.

LOL-  I would say we're overdue but I'm well aware of the gambler's fallacy they bugalou spoke about earlier!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mempho on December 10, 2017, 08:35:44 AM
That's a neat map. I would think NE Mississippi would be much more likely to get a 2" snow than the Delta.
Going east to west.... The first bump to the north in the lines is due to the delta effect (WAA). The same areas which see less snow will also see more freezing rain due to the delta air funnel which works to efficiently bring I'm low-level cold air from the north.

Working east, the Memphis metro area, sees slightly more snow due to the increase in elevation.   This is not really much to the effects elevation on temperature but how the elevation impedes low-level cold air.   In addition, NE wind situations (a classic winter storm situation) brings slight upsloping off the TN River Valley.

Next, you have a lines go north quickly.  There are three things happening in the TN River Valley:

1) NE winds downslope off the Cumberland Plateau
2) Look at a big map and look south (way south)... Due to the geography of the coastline, these areas are 50 to 100 miles closer to that giant supply of warm air in the Gulf of Mexico.   Incidentally, the western parts of the area are in position to benefit from this as lows to the southeast get a but better supply of moisture, which can wrap around to those areas in the cold sector.  Lastly, these storms have a tendency to get stronger with this influx and head pole ward (absent some blocking) as a result.



Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mempho on December 10, 2017, 08:37:31 AM
Temps were in the lower and mid 20's for the Santa Hustle this morning.  Hope ya'll had something hot to get the blood flowing.  No wind, at least, so wind chills shouldn't have been an issue.
I've wanted to do that race but it's one week after St. Jude.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 10, 2017, 08:46:00 AM
Way out there but GFS is being really consistent so far with something around Christmas. Several runs stall the front resulting in major rain with snow on the northern side. Something to keep an eye on.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2017, 08:49:12 AM
Way out there but GFS is being really consistent so far with something around Christmas. Several runs stall the front resulting in major rain with snow on the northern side. Something to keep an eye on.
was going to post on this... agree.... but looks icy to me for now... shallow dome of artic air with over running...

Post Merge: December 10, 2017, 09:05:54 AM
which mean for you dyer....you guessed it bro... sleet for you... merry christmas with a sleet feast... >:D
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 10, 2017, 09:56:41 AM
I've been noticing that timeframe that it keeps popping up and going away and popping back up. It usually don't fall good for us around Christmas but it would be super if it did. For sure something to keep a eye on. Hope the next 45 days gives us something to track and watch anyway. The early snow to our south bring hope. Maybe we will get a few good model runs for the Christmas time frame soon. It would make for a lively mood before Christmas for sure. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 10, 2017, 10:47:00 AM
Going east to west.... The first bump to the north in the lines is due to the delta effect (WAA). The same areas which see less snow will also see more freezing rain due to the delta air funnel which works to efficiently bring I'm low-level cold air from the north.

Working east, the Memphis metro area, sees slightly more snow due to the increase in elevation.   This is not really much to the effects elevation on temperature but how the elevation impedes low-level cold air.   In addition, NE wind situations (a classic winter storm situation) brings slight upsloping off the TN River Valley.

Next, you have a lines go north quickly.  There are three things happening in the TN River Valley:

1) NE winds downslope off the Cumberland Plateau
2) Look at a big map and look south (way south)... Due to the geography of the coastline, these areas are 50 to 100 miles closer to that giant supply of warm air in the Gulf of Mexico.   Incidentally, the western parts of the area are in position to benefit from this as lows to the southeast get a but better supply of moisture, which can wrap around to those areas in the cold sector.  Lastly, these storms have a tendency to get stronger with this influx and head pole ward (absent some blocking) as a result.



Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Very interesting take on local climate/weather around your area.  I've always had an interest in local microclimates and how topography plays a major role in how they work.   Obviously, you've observed it over the years with passing winter storms, and hopefully you'll get to see it in action again this winter.   ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 10, 2017, 11:12:47 AM
This starts at around hour 288 and last through the end of run. It slowly sinks south and effects everyone. I believe we might have something to watch.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/309nhhd.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 10, 2017, 11:27:47 AM
This starts at around hour 288 and last through the end of run. It slowly sinks south and effects everyone. I believe we might have something to watch.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/309nhhd.jpg)

We had an exceptionally trouble-free Thanksgiving, travel-wise.  May pay for it at Christmas.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mempho on December 10, 2017, 12:01:00 PM
Very interesting take on local climate/weather around your area.  I've always had an interest in local microclimates and how topography plays a major role in how they work.   Obviously, you've observed it over the years with passing winter storms, and hopefully you'll get to see it in action again this winter.   ::fingerscrossed::
Thanks!  Certainly, every individual storm is different but you can see this pattern quite a bit.  Look at the accumulation map in the thread on the 2016 event below and you'll see a generalized version of the overall pattern on the map. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mempho on December 10, 2017, 12:11:38 PM
FYI-  If you can find it watch the Miami @ Buffalo game.  Insane snow right now.  Lake Effect Snow Warning in effect in Orchard Park. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on December 10, 2017, 12:13:38 PM
FYI-  If you can find it watch the Miami @ Buffalo game.  Insane snow right now.  Lake Effect Snow Warning in effect in Orchard Park. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
This is an insane game to watch. And the snow just keeps dumping.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on December 10, 2017, 12:16:06 PM
We had an exceptionally trouble-free Thanksgiving, travel-wise.  May pay for it at Christmas.
I am getting back from a cruise the morning of Christmas Eve and have to drive back from New Orleans.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mempho on December 10, 2017, 12:16:52 PM
This is an insane game to watch. And the snow just keeps dumping.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Agree-  looks like one of the great snow games.  Also, I met Indy @ Buffalo but you knew what I meant. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mempho on December 10, 2017, 12:20:18 PM
I am getting back from a cruise the morning of Christmas Eve and have to drive back from New Orleans.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Also, crazy how it effects the game strategy.  You have to go for it on 4th down in the back end of field goal range.

Commentor said even  extra points are out of the question.

Said the teams may for it on every 4th down.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on December 10, 2017, 12:21:10 PM
Also, crazy how it effects the game strategy.  You have to go for it on 4th down in the back end of field goal range.

Commentor said even  extra points are out of the question.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Oh wow. Colts are kicking one now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mempho on December 10, 2017, 12:24:41 PM
Oh wow. Colts are kicking one now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
And the result was a bad miss-  bad mistake by the Colts. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2017, 12:36:22 PM
notice on the 12zgfs longer stuff... starting pop up a se ridge off the florida east coast... with plenty artic air lurking to our north.... ample moisture work with... interesting times sure look possible around christmas timeframe... i woould be worried still with ice being possiblity.... watch that time frame since alot traveling  taking place for hollidays....
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on December 10, 2017, 12:40:24 PM
This starts at around hour 288 and last through the end of run. It slowly sinks south and effects everyone. I believe we might have something to watch.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/309nhhd.jpg)

Sleetfest maybe?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2017, 12:42:26 PM
Sleetfest maybe?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
thats what it looked like earlier runs.... sleet feast....
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: bugalou on December 10, 2017, 12:54:51 PM
was going to post on this... agree.... but looks icy to me for now... shallow dome of artic air with over running...

Post Merge: December 10, 2017, 09:05:54 AM
which mean for you dyer....you guessed it bro... sleet for you... merry christmas with a sleet feast... >:D

Def ice - The 500 mb low is way far to north for that to be deep cold air like we see with the current air mass.
That setup looks like the shallow maple syrup style cold air.  The type to get hung up by the lowly Ozarks and annoy us here in Memphis.  Thus far it doesn't look like enough unf to get to us, but way to far ahead to get to details.  Seems like Memphis has had quite a few Xmas (or darn close) sleet events.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mempho on December 10, 2017, 12:56:04 PM
Sleetfest maybe?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Models typically undermodel low level cold air in these situations.  Still a long way away but just bringing that up.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 10, 2017, 12:59:57 PM
Def ice - The 500 mb low is way far to north for that to be deep cold air like we see with the current air mass.
That setup looks like the shallow maple syrup style cold air.  The type to get hung up by the lowly Ozarks and annoy us here in Memphis.  Thus far it doesn't look like enough unf to get to us, but way to far ahead to get to details.  Seems like Memphis has had quite a few Xmas (or darn close) sleet events.

Whatís funny is that run verbatim holds the freezing line above TN for 2 days with rain, then magically drops it 200 miles south with MS and AL getting sleet and snow. Basically- it goes all the way around the state with snow and sleet in every direction. Hope itís not one of THOSE winters.

Good news is the set up is classic mid south winter storm material and of course it will change by tomorrow.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 10, 2017, 01:03:43 PM
Sleetfest maybe?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
We know all about sleetfest don't we drift! ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: skillsweather on December 10, 2017, 02:32:50 PM
Whatís funny is that run verbatim holds the freezing line above TN for 2 days with rain, then magically drops it 200 miles south with MS and AL getting sleet and snow. Basically- it goes all the way around the state with snow and sleet in every direction. Hope itís not one of THOSE winters.

Good news is the set up is classic mid south winter storm material and of course it will change by tomorrow.
Yeah also remember we was talking snow come this friday the 15th and now nothing so.. But that would be crappy being dry for weeks and weeks while we are plenty cold for snow then boom stalled front with tons of rain while we stay warm and when it gets cold again the moistures south of us and gives north south east and west all snow while we are skipped. Man.. Please dont let that happen :(
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 10, 2017, 02:38:49 PM
Sleetfest maybe?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If I can't get snow, I'll gladly take inches and inches of sleet over rain or rain that freezes on impact.   ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Charles L. on December 10, 2017, 02:57:39 PM
If I can't get snow, I'll gladly take inches and inches of sleet over rain or rain that freezes on impact.   ;)

Same here. I get just as excited for sleet as I do snow. Now freezing rain on the other hand...
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: WXHD on December 10, 2017, 03:15:39 PM
Same here. I get just as excited for sleet as I do snow. Now freezing rain on the other hand...

I've actually put a "whole house generator" on my want list. I've got gas heat and a gas fireplace so realistically a small generator would be sufficient to run the fan in the heater but, the idea of hot showers and a full kitchen really are enticing. It'll be a long time before u can afford such a luxury. Oh well. So until then, no ice allowed.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 10, 2017, 03:30:53 PM
Same here. I get just as excited for sleet as I do snow. Now freezing rain on the other hand...

Of all the winter precipitation, sleet is actually pretty rare.  It's like threading a needle--just enough cold air to not get rain, but not enough cold air (thickness-wise) for snow.  It's a transition precipitation for most part, either when you are changing from snow to rain, or vice versa, and I've not seen much of it since moving to east Tennessee.  I sorta miss a "sleetfest."    ;D
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Crockett on December 10, 2017, 03:51:44 PM
Active southern jet and lots of cold air lurking close by right at Christmas? I'll take our chances. You can't score if you don't have players on the field...
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 10, 2017, 04:04:44 PM
Of all the winter precipitation, sleet is actually pretty rare.  It's like threading a needle--just enough cold air to not get rain, but not enough cold air (thickness-wise) for snow.  It's a transition precipitation for most part, either when you are changing from snow to rain, or vice versa, and I've not seen much of it since moving to east Tennessee.  I sorta miss a "sleetfest."    ;D
It is cool but I will say watching sleet accumulate for for 12 hours is like watching paint dry.
Title: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on December 10, 2017, 04:09:10 PM
Of all the winter precipitation, sleet is actually pretty rare.  It's like threading a needle--just enough cold air to not get rain, but not enough cold air (thickness-wise) for snow.  It's a transition precipitation for most part, either when you are changing from snow to rain, or vice versa, and I've not seen much of it since moving to east Tennessee.  I sorta miss a "sleetfest."   

I think sleet may be more common in the western half of the state. Some years, sleet has been more common than snow. Maybe it has to do with being more prone to overrunning events.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on December 10, 2017, 04:29:23 PM
It is cool but I will say watching sleet accumulate for for 12 hours is like watching paint dry.
Yeah but the staying power of sleet is something else.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 10, 2017, 04:35:50 PM
It is cool but I will say watching sleet accumulate for for 12 hours is like watching paint dry.

(https://i.pinimg.com/736x/42/a0/c8/42a0c868fad26ccebf123244cf6da8b5.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 10, 2017, 04:37:53 PM
I think sleet may be more common in the western half of the state. Some years, sleet has been more common than snow. Maybe it has to do with being more prone to overrunning events.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think the terrain west of the plateau is prime for stalling low level CAA in certain situations which then lends itself to more sleet events. Usually a Southwest to northeast gradient sets up and the precipitation changes form as the cold air deepens.

We had about 3 inches of sleet and a inch of snow before Christmas in 2004 that was on the ground for more than a week. Christmas Day was incredibly slippery around here.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2017, 04:41:59 PM
I think the terrain west of the plateau is prime for stalling low level CAA in certain situations which then lends itself to more sleet events. Usually a Southwest to northeast gradient sets up and the precipitation changes form as the cold air deepens.

We had about 3 inches of sleet and a inch of snow before Christmas in 2004 that was on the ground for more than a week. Christmas Day was incredibly slippery around here.
know   . I had a wreck that day of the sleet storm .... cold week it was
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 10, 2017, 04:42:16 PM
Yeah but the staying power of sleet is something else.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Much more dense than snow--it's like billions of tiny ice cubes on the ground.  And just try to drive on those ball bearings.  Nature's perfect weapon to slow us down. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 10, 2017, 04:52:26 PM
If I can't get snow, I'll gladly take inches and inches of sleet over rain or rain that freezes on impact.   ;)
Yes sir, no doubt sleet slows down driving but freezing rain is much more of a head ache with power outages and downed trees. We have had a few good sleet storms here over the last several years. 2004 before Christmas was about 5-6 inches of sleet here. The one in march a few years back was about 7-8 inches of sleet, both times several cold days kept it around for quite a while.  ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 10, 2017, 05:03:01 PM
Yes sir no doubt, sleet slows down driving but freezing rain is much more of a head ache with power outages and downed trees. We have had a few good sleet storms here over the last several years. 2004 before Christmas was about 5-6 inches of sleet here. The one in march a few years back was about 7-8 inches of sleet, both times several cold days kept it around for quite a while.  ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Wow...that really was a sleetfest.  It probably took awhile for that much ice to melt.

As far as freezing rain goes--I'd rather torch at 60 degrees with plain rain.  I enjoy my trees, and freezing rain is bad news for trees.  I've seen it take down a whole forest of pines and even tear up hardwoods.  Sleet, like Bumbles, just bounce.   ;)

(https://memecrunch.com/meme/615UC/bumbles-bounce/image.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 10, 2017, 05:14:52 PM
Speaking of ice and sleet. Merry Christmas

(http://i66.tinypic.com/2q07wic.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Eric on December 10, 2017, 05:19:47 PM
I admire the attention you guys are affording a marginal event two weeks from now, but we all know it'll end up snowing in Tulsa and 50F here on Christmas.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 10, 2017, 05:22:26 PM
Speaking of ice and sleet. Merry Christmas

(http://i66.tinypic.com/2q07wic.jpg)


Just for kicks

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171210/9ce913ec307bcd7469380414fc7697c4.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 10, 2017, 05:35:57 PM
I admire the attention you guys are affording a marginal event two weeks from now, but we all know it'll end up snowing in Tulsa and 50F here on Christmas.

Lol other forums would have a topic for it by now. At least we know 15 days our is flaky- no pun intended.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: skillsweather on December 10, 2017, 05:45:32 PM
IF that verifys can you imagine how bad traffic and work will be that week. Most are off that week but some are not so the day after christmas and wednesday-friday the roads would be horrible.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 10, 2017, 06:00:54 PM
I admire the attention you guys are affording a marginal event two weeks from now, but we all know it'll end up snowing in Tulsa and 50F here on Christmas.

It's winter, it gets dark at 6, and March Madness is a long way off.  What else we gonna do?  ;D
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2017, 06:59:45 PM
I admire the attention you guys are affording a marginal event two weeks from now, but we all know it'll end up snowing in Tulsa and 50F here on Christmas.
actually not a marginal event at this point...yeah its bit out there   agree... but its around the christmas timeframe which its been showing past three days...alot traveling going be taking place....  beside the titans offense looks like crap >:D
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Eric on December 10, 2017, 07:14:06 PM
actually not a marginal event at this point...yeah its bit out there   agree... but its around the christmas timeframe which its been showing past three days...alot traveling going be taking place....  beside the titans offense looks like crap >:D

It's marginal in the sense that it's +300 hours out.  If it's still on the field within 150 hours, I'll be the first to make a thread.  Like I say, I respect ya'lls discussion. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2017, 07:14:55 PM
when brucie starts to post on event... especially a winter event.... something big brewing on horizon... cause im more laid back comes to winter stuff... now other stuff, i may get a little itchy and jump gun. lol
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2017, 07:35:56 PM
Already a great sign that the pattern is shifting. Although we won't have that impressive mass of cold air in place like we're having now, our chances of a significant winter event are much better. Unusually cold weather doesn't necessarily increase our chances of a winter event at this latitude. What we need is the moisture, and that looks to be returning by the end of next week. Since it has been so dry, I will be glad to see some rain.

This December is already 1000x better than the past two. Anything beats those. I am a fan of severe weather events, but not around Christmas. Even we don't cash in, it will still be nice to see some precip and near-normal temperatures. And by the looks of the models, cold temps seem to make a good return right around Christmas.

Here's to a great storm.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 10, 2017, 07:38:03 PM
Not going to be popular but I'm hoping for a stalled out rain with the 6 to 8 that has been showing a little to the south. Need some duck water bad. Now sense I want rain , we will get the winter storm of the century. So be prepared. >:D
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2017, 07:40:49 PM
Not going to be popular but I'm hoping for a stalled out rain with the 6 to 8 that has been showing a little to the south. Need some duck water bad. Now sense I want rain , we will get the winter storm of the century. So be prepared. >:D

I will greet any form of precipitation. We need a good rain!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on December 10, 2017, 07:44:52 PM
when brucie starts to post on event... especially a winter event.... something big brewing on horizon... cause im more laid back comes to winter stuff... now other stuff, i may get a little itchy and jump gun. lol

I still remember a winter weather thread that lasted maybe 30 minutes a few years ago lol.
Just yanking the chain a little Bruce.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2017, 07:46:03 PM
Also, I travel with a snow dome, and it is worth noting I will be in Nashville for Christmas. So East TN, you should expect a great winter storm while I'm gone

I apologize in advance to everyone in Nashville  ::rofl::

Post Merge: December 10, 2017, 07:49:55 PM
Sorry to be blowing up the thread.. But just worth nothing that the Great Plains from NE to OK are in a serious snow drought.. And it looks like not much for them in the near future either
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: bugalou on December 10, 2017, 09:21:23 PM
18z GFS hammers western TN including Memphis and her suburbs with a prolonged Xmas time ice storm with some snow on top.  Verbatim, it would be pretty major and a prolonged event. No telling on ptype for accumulations but ZR looks like the primary mode maybe flipping to sleet then snow.

This is iffy though with the boundary that sets up out west later this week, a system is going to want to pop from the baroclinic zone which would cut to the lakes and wreck the pattern for our Xmas event. That said, the system trended much stronger and to the south tonight so it's definitely something to talk about here. 

Next weekend looks toasty if you want to get a golf game in before the icepocolypse :D

Sent from my P027 using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: skillsweather on December 10, 2017, 09:47:56 PM
What about like around Nashville is there a sharp cut off to rain here or like is it sleet and ice here too?
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 10, 2017, 09:54:24 PM
What about like around Nashville is there a sharp cut off to rain here or like is it sleet and ice here too?
looks pretty icy also skills... depends course how the boundary lays... if its running from nw to se... more fz rain vs sleet... but early course.... signal folks here is thus far... we have a strong signal for a possible major system around a buisy  buisy time of year ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 10, 2017, 11:21:10 PM
00z GFS holding up the Christmastime storm. It looks good for all of TN.

NAM has a decent spread of snow showers for the eastern half of the state on Tuesday. It will be too warm for anything to stick in the lower elevations, but the mountains could pick up another few inches. Possibly an inch on the upper plateau near KY.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mempho on December 11, 2017, 05:23:50 AM

Just for kicks

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171210/9ce913ec307bcd7469380414fc7697c4.jpg)
Soooo, we get in the 15 to 20 inch screw zone while parts of East Arkansas go over 2 feet....
LOL J/K



Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on December 11, 2017, 07:16:25 AM
The upper plateau looks to get a dusting to an inch tonight or tomorrow morning.  Flurries possible elsewhere with a reinforcing shot of cold air in place tomorrow.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 11, 2017, 07:26:06 AM
Not sure if it will include wintry stuff, but I'm glad the GFS shows signs of major precipitation episodes incoming.  Ponds are low, and you can tell we haven't had much rain lately with stream flows in the Smokies lower than normal for December.  We need the rain the GFS depicts toward the end of its run.   
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 11, 2017, 08:33:10 AM
6gfs was good hit with ice with couple inches snow backside Xmas  period  west tn
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 11, 2017, 08:50:41 AM
It's still far out but that 22-26th period has been showing a signal for something for a while now. Looks like it's trying to show 2 different systems. Still way out there, but if continues to show up Christmas time weather model watching will be fun or at least interesting and certainly not boring. That mid month system looks like a rain soaker right now. That will make Dyer and many of us happy. Looks kinda active in the future for sure. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 11, 2017, 09:01:23 AM
Appears the mjo is fixing go into phase 1. And 2... thatís a stormy cold phase
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 11, 2017, 09:18:47 AM
Appears the mjo is fixing go into phase 1. And 2... thatís a stormy cold phase

Good.  Come on, Old Man Winter--find your mojo. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 11, 2017, 10:19:24 AM
We might just knock the dust off of chat and have a late night throw down.  >:D
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: WXHD on December 11, 2017, 10:48:18 AM
Looks to me like the ice is disappearing from the 12Z GFS?
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: bugalou on December 11, 2017, 11:18:39 AM
Looks to me like the ice is disappearing from the 12Z GFS?

12z looks more snowy with the upper level trough a little further south and more positively tilted, thus a deep cold layer can drive south.  It is slow to arrive though, so less frozen precip.  Memphis and Nashville are both right on the line too (naturally :D)

This far out its pointless to even speculate ptype even if its a cold rain.  To me and with my experience watching midsouth weather, it looks like it will be ice if its anything wintry at all.  Positive, its be up there for the past several days.  Negative - way to far out. 

FWIW before that, 12z showed a clipper system with some snow showers for western and eastern TN early next week.  You never know with those northern stream systems can be hit or miss.
Title: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 11, 2017, 11:58:00 AM
... whole freaking attic comes down on gfs long range ....
Title: Winter 2017-18
Post by: WXHD on December 11, 2017, 12:06:29 PM
... whole freaking attic comes down on gfs long range ....

I thought I saw 12Z temps in the teens around the 27th.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 11, 2017, 12:37:32 PM
... whole freaking attic comes down on gfs long range ....

Does that mean it's getting cold? Synonymous with the "bottom drops out"?

My English is not the best and I am confused by a lot of euphemisms and slang  ::doh::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Eric on December 11, 2017, 12:42:57 PM
Does that mean it's getting cold? Synonymous with the "bottom drops out"?

My English is not the best and I am confused by a lot of euphemisms and slang  ::doh::

Don't worry...WE have a problem understanding Bruce. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: WXHD on December 11, 2017, 12:47:04 PM
I only see cold in that duration if the ground is covered in ice. Me no likey.  ::cold::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 11, 2017, 12:50:29 PM
Folks. Meant ARTiC lmao. Dang I phone
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: bugalou on December 11, 2017, 12:52:31 PM
Unless that air comes all the way from Siberia, I don't see how it can get so cold for such a large area so quick - Canada and the Arctic are warm by a few deviations.  The only real cold air is in Siberia.  Maybe I need to look at poleward view of the GFS.  Not saying it can't get cold enough for wintry precip though of course.

Edit:  Don't have the world view 12z GFS but looking at the 6z it does indeed look like a big chunk of Siberia breaks off and goes over the pole.  Thats how you get record cold.  I guess we shall see because there are 2 or 3 systems in Asia and Canadian maritime area that have to do their thing to make this even happen.  I am sure it weill be all gone tonight since we are starting to talk about it.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on December 11, 2017, 12:58:26 PM
... whole freaking attic comes down on gfs long range ....

Peaks cautiously into the attic


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 11, 2017, 01:09:52 PM
I hope some of y'all on the Plateau and in the eastern mtns. pick up a bit tomorrow.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 11, 2017, 01:50:38 PM
Bruce is getting so excited about winter these days, he's ready to raise the roof and bring the house down.  Winter house party at Bruce's!   ;D
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 11, 2017, 04:11:53 PM
Our luck must be upon us... I know it statistically doesn't make much sense to say this, but it snowed 45cm in fricking Istanbul last January... Surely we must get lucky soon. Almost the same latitude.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 11, 2017, 04:47:22 PM
Latest Enso has the eastern region 1.2 at negative 1.6, region 3 at negative 1.3, 3.4 at negative 0.8, and finally western region 4 at negative 0.1. This La NiŮa is waaaay eastern based with almost no La NiŮa towards the west. The moderate negative QBO continues as winter continues to evolve.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 11, 2017, 05:40:00 PM
Hmmm....Nashville has issued a WWA for their plateau counties, but Morristown hasn't yet hoisted any advisories for the counties bordering with OHX.   ::pondering::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: WXHD on December 11, 2017, 05:45:00 PM
Latest Enso has the eastern region 1.2 at negative 1.6, region 3 at negative 1.3, 3.4 at negative 0.8, and finally western region 4 at negative 0.1. This La NiŮa is waaaay eastern based with almost no La NiŮa towards the west. The moderate negative QBO continues as winter continues to evolve.

Sooo........?
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 11, 2017, 05:48:58 PM
QBO trending neg. Good sign, right?
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 11, 2017, 06:19:36 PM
Sooo........?

East based Ninaís with a negative QBO on average- are much colder. Thereís no guarantee but those analogs are stealthy.  A stout MJO in phases 7-2 with the above usually leads to sustained cold. Anything in December is nice but January and February are more what Iím interested to see.

To date, Iíve had far more night below freezing than the last 2 years combined.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: WXHD on December 11, 2017, 06:30:54 PM
East based Ninaís with a negative QBO on average- are much colder. Thereís no guarantee but those analogs are stealthy.  A stout MJO in phases 7-2 with the above usually leads to sustained cold. Anything in December is nice but January and February are more what Iím interested to see.

To date, Iíve had far more night below freezing than the last 2 years combined.

Thanks for the response. If I'm remembering correctly last years were unfavorable and in the 9th phase?
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 11, 2017, 06:38:37 PM
Thanks for the response. If I'm remembering correctly last years were unfavorable and in the 9th phase?
actually mjo cycle only goes from  1  to 8....
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mempho on December 11, 2017, 06:59:54 PM
Does that mean it's getting cold? Synonymous with the "bottom drops out"?

My English is not the best and I am confused by a lot of euphemisms and slang  ::doh::
Yes, it dumps on Christmas Eve and then comes the deep freeze!!!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mempho on December 11, 2017, 07:02:32 PM
Unless that air comes all the way from Siberia, I don't see how it can get so cold for such a large area so quick - Canada and the Arctic are warm by a few deviations.  The only real cold air is in Siberia.  Maybe I need to look at poleward view of the GFS.  Not saying it can't get cold enough for wintry precip though of course.

Edit:  Don't have the world view 12z GFS but looking at the 6z it does indeed look like a big chunk of Siberia breaks off and goes over the pole.  Thats how you get record cold.  I guess we shall see because there are 2 or 3 systems in Asia and Canadian maritime area that have to do their thing to make this even happen.  I am sure it weill be all gone tonight since we are starting to talk about it.
I was reading another knowledgable source who was noting that this was a cross-polar flow setup.  If so, then it's Siberian.   

I'm actually feeling the better about this upcoming period than I have in years. 

Edit to add:  No reason why but I'm feeling this right now.  How about a 1963 special? 

14 inches on the level on 12/22/63
13 degrees below zero on 12/24/63
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: WXHD on December 11, 2017, 07:09:43 PM
actually mjo cycle only goes from  1  to 8....

I think I heard a lot of 5-6 and 7-8. That side of things is pretty foreign to me. I don't recall much discussion of the lower numbers. And, I wasn't too far off as a fool and laymen imagining the number 9 from a winter ago. Honestly, I'm panic'd and almost fixated on an ice storm. I have been for years. It was the 90's when Nashville was devastated  by an ice storm and my family went a week without power. It stayed so cold for so many days that my dads 50ish gallon fish tank froze inside the house killing all the fish. A significant ice storm followed by a prolonged power outage is one of my biggest fears. As a parent and family man, I may have taken it too far. I'm not a survivalist(though I love my camping!) but, I've spent years collecting grills and camping stoves. I WILL HAVE COFFEE!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 11, 2017, 07:24:40 PM
I was reading another knowledgable source who was noting that this was a cross-polar flow setup.  If so, then it's Siberian.   

I'm actually feeling the better about this upcoming period than I have in years. 

Edit to add:  No reason why but I'm feeling this right now.  How about a 1963 special? 

14 inches on the level on 12/22/63
13 degrees below zero on 12/24/63
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
always heard my mom and dad talk about the december 63 time frame... said it was harsh... it took my dad almost 2 hours just to drive across town to get my medicine... when i was sick as a one year old then... yeah im telling off on my age  .... very cold and snowy.... ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mempho on December 11, 2017, 07:25:11 PM
FYI-  One of my kids -  having no knowledge of this-  just asked "Could it snow for Christmas?"

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: WXHD on December 11, 2017, 07:38:54 PM
FYI-  One of my kids -  having no knowledge of this-  just asked "Could it snow for Christmas?"

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

We either have a patron saint or a born troll.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clint on December 11, 2017, 07:42:43 PM
always heard my mom and dad talk about the december 63 time frame... said it was harsh... it took my dad almost 2 hours just to drive across town to get my medicine... when i was sick as a one year old then... yeah im telling off on my age  .... very cold and snowy.... ::snowman::
Bruce, we're the same age. I was 11 months and 2 weeks of age during Christmas of 1963. At the time, we were visiting relatives in Cleveland Ms. and they received 16" of snow from this storm. My uncle's car broke down coming home from work Christmas Eve and claims he nearly froze to death walking home. This storm had wide reaching effects through a large area of the mid-south.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 11, 2017, 07:47:32 PM
East based Ninaís with a negative QBO on average- are much colder. Thereís no guarantee but those analogs are stealthy.  A stout MJO in phases 7-2 with the above usually leads to sustained cold. Anything in December is nice but January and February are more what Iím interested to see.

To date, Iíve had far more night below freezing than the last 2 years combined.

Been a long time since the deck was stacked in our favor. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 11, 2017, 07:53:02 PM
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

Hereís a great site which archives the MJO since 1975. Itís just one driver - not the catch all. Most deep winter snow events happen in the colder left phases from 7-2 although not all. Winter storms have happened in all of them at some point.

Last year January and February stayed in the cold phase but the west based La NiŮa and positive QBO overwhelmed the pattern with warm other than the brief cold period in January and a couple inches of snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mempho on December 11, 2017, 09:45:33 PM
We either have a patron saint or a born troll.
For the record, this particular child-  she was born 1/21/11.

I drove her mama to the hospital across an ice sheet that was formerly known as Walnut Grove.

The headline of the Commercial Appeal that day:  "Snowmagosh"

And yes-  her first look out the window was of a snowy scene.

Now, you could say that means nothing or maybe- just maybe- if you believe in that sort of thing - well,you never know...
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 11, 2017, 11:26:39 PM
0zgfs popping up pretty good se ridge around Xmas . Big artic air lurking north. Going be a battle who wins
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 11, 2017, 11:47:56 PM
I bet we see some model swings back and forth the next several days for the christmas time frame. Still a ways out. Hopefully we can get everything to line up just right. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 12, 2017, 05:03:56 AM
The one thing that has been the most consistent is the flooding associated with the battle ground that sets up. Practically every run for days has 8 to 15 inches of rain from north Louisiana through East Tennessee.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/j08qxu.jpg)

And still end up with a couple days of this.

(http://i65.tinypic.com/dwdz6c.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 12, 2017, 06:41:50 AM
The one thing that has been the most consistent is the flooding associated with the battle ground that sets up. Practically every run for days has 8 to 15 inches of rain from north Louisiana through East Tennessee.

(http://i67.tinypic.com/j08qxu.jpg)

And still end up with a couple days of this.

(http://i65.tinypic.com/dwdz6c.jpg)

It does remind me a bit of the year that is the benchmark for winter weather around here.  I'm sure we all know what year that is by now, but Christmas through New Year's did feature strong storms and heavy rain with flooding as the Arctic was doing battle with a mammoth southeast ridge.  Ok, I'll mention the year--1985--and we all know who won that battle.  The ridge was crushed into oblivion--at least until the middle of February.   

But 8-15 inches of rain?  That would bring historic and catastrophic flooding to many areas--especially the plateau and mountains where topography would cause massive runoff of that much rain. 

Post Merge: December 12, 2017, 08:22:22 AM
Snow showers increasing in eastern Kentucky this morning.  Wonder how much of the moisture from Lake Michigan will help today?  Right now, not much going on, even in the advisory areas. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on December 12, 2017, 09:54:11 AM
Something we haven't had in a while that I remember occurring some in the 1990s... is a good snow squally pattern, on days when heavy bands of snow showers come down with impulses in a northwesterly flow. I can remember days like that when the sun would come out between bands... then the skies would darken at the approach of a low bank of clouds, dumping a quick inch of snow.

I am seeing a few stray snowflakes outside the window currently.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 12, 2017, 10:11:18 AM
Something we haven't had in a while that I remember occurring some in the 1990s... is a good snow squally pattern, on days when heavy bands of snow showers come down with impulses in a northwesterly flow. I can remember days like that when the sun would come out between bands... then the skies would darken at the approach of a low bank of clouds, dumping a quick inch of snow.

I am seeing a few stray snowflakes outside the window currently.

Agree.  Snow squalls are like summer thunderstorms, only more fun.  Sky gets black and you see the trees disappear in the distance as the heavy snow approaches.  Easy to get a quick inch before the sun comes back out and the process repeats itself. 

No squalls today.   :-\

Quote
National Weather Service Nashville TN
941 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Well, I`ve been sifting around trying to find some reports of
anything frozen falling in KY at this hour, but to no avail. So,
my thoughts are to just let the Plateau advisory die a natural,
horrible death and replace it with an SPS for several hours.
Temperatures on the Plateau are finally falling towards freezing,
but as we get later in the morning, the forecast soundings start
drying out rather rapidly. This does not bode well for snowfall,
or any other meaningful precipitation either. I`m going to drop
PoP into the 30% category and just mention a mix of snow/rain but
with little to no accumulation. Forecast update and new products
will be out shortly.

&&
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: WXHD on December 12, 2017, 10:51:15 AM
12Z showing 60F for xmas eve and day. I will take that! Unfortunately, it's wet though. Cold air is gone. No snow or ice.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 12, 2017, 10:57:30 AM
12Z showing 60F for xmas eve and day. I will take that! Unfortunately, it's wet though. Cold air is gone. No snow or ice.

Its a back and forth long range battle with the SER. This will go back and forth for a few days.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: WXHD on December 12, 2017, 10:58:51 AM
Its a back and forth long range battle with the SER. This will go back and forth for a few days.

I know, just glad to see it wavering in the direction of warmth.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 12, 2017, 10:59:49 AM
Its a back and forth long range battle with the SER. This will go back and forth for a few days.
no doubt would expect some wild swings on the models
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 12, 2017, 11:23:43 AM
Bring on winter, hope the SER gets whipped down enough for winter weather around the holidays. A weak SER can sometimes actually help. But I do not want to be on warm side and get severe weather in the winter. I am all for the winter side of things.   ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on December 12, 2017, 11:29:12 AM
I definitely don't want 60's for Christmas. If we are going to be on the warm side so to speak, give me 40's.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mempho on December 12, 2017, 11:46:56 AM
12Z showing 60F for xmas eve and day. I will take that! Unfortunately, it's wet though. Cold air is gone. No snow or ice.
Yuck, can't even build a fire with it that warm.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 12, 2017, 11:59:11 AM
I definitely don't want 60's for Christmas. If we are going to be on the warm side so to speak, give me 40's.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
heck we going be warm. For Xmas. Mite as well push for the 70s. Letís do it right
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 12, 2017, 12:17:18 PM
heck we going be warm. For Xmas. Mite as well push for the 70s. Letís do it right

NO thanks
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on December 12, 2017, 12:22:38 PM
heck we going be warm. For Xmas. Mite as well push for the 70s. Letís do it right

Bruce there you go trippin again


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 12, 2017, 12:43:06 PM
What a stormy pattern starting around the 22nd. It last for days.



(http://i68.tinypic.com/14kwt9d.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 12, 2017, 12:58:54 PM
What a stormy pattern starting around the 22nd. It last for days.



(http://i68.tinypic.com/14kwt9d.jpg)
Looks like it is shifting ever so slightly to the west, along with the trough axis.  That would make it warmer. . . :-\
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: dwagner88 on December 12, 2017, 01:00:20 PM
This would make 3 torchy Christmases in a row. I was really hoping to avoid that this year.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 12, 2017, 01:42:38 PM
We are discussing 2 weeks away so things could go either way temp wise. There for sure is a strong signal for a stormy pattern though.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on December 12, 2017, 02:05:40 PM
Looks like it is shifting ever so slightly to the west, along with the trough axis.  That would make it warmer. . . :-\

The rainfall amounts that model is projecting are alarming, but hopefully this is spread out over several days instead of too much all at once. Also, hopefully the model is overdoing amounts at that extended range.

Looks like a wet period anyway you cut it.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 12, 2017, 02:35:05 PM
Its all LR so *grain of salt". Theres bound to be a SER but if cold is stonger we usually benefit. GEFS has tons of members with wintry precip- some incredibly significant. A lot to look at over especially in 5-6 days.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 12, 2017, 02:52:47 PM
Its all LR so *grain of salt". Theres bound to be a SER but if cold is stonger we usually benefit. GEFS has tons of members with wintry precip- some incredibly significant. A lot to look at over especially in 5-6 days.

Good point.  The GFS does show a huge Arctic dump taking place around the same time.  That amount of cold could easily overwhelm that pattern, and trough placement is yet to be determined.  If the trough digs more toward the east, we'll have a wildly different outcome than if it digs in the Rockies. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 12, 2017, 02:58:40 PM
Could go either way this far out. More likely to shift west though. Whoever said, "we all know the I-44 corridor will cash in on a blizzard" is probably correct.

While I don't want it to be torchy- which it may be- we do need the rain. Even if the precip is a bit excessive, we're running dry this year. We need it. I'll take 55F and rain over Christmas than 40F and dry. At least the weather will be interesting, though it will suck for those traveling.

I predict temps will be in a gradient that favors colder temps to the west and warmer in the east. Clarksville could be around 45F on Christmas day while Knoxville torches above 60F. Rain state-wide. Icing still not ruled out. I'll bet there will be a classic band of ZR/Sleet on the backside of the front after Christmas that may produce .1" or more of ice in west TN. A major trough will be centered over the Great Plains at this time. There is a lot of potential.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: dwagner88 on December 12, 2017, 03:54:03 PM
Is anybody in the state really that desperate for rain? We are way above normal down here. I kinda figured most of the rest of the state was as well. Iím over 60Ē on the year.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Eric on December 12, 2017, 03:55:26 PM
Yuck, can't even build a fire with it that warm.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

To **** you say.  Come Christmas morning six degrees to 60, there will be a fire in that fireplace.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: WXHD on December 12, 2017, 04:04:41 PM
To **** you say.  Come Christmas morning six degrees to 60, there will be a fire in that fireplace.

I might deep fry a frozen turkey outside so everyone in my neighborhood can enjoy a fire!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: skillsweather on December 12, 2017, 04:46:38 PM
12 days of Christmas has turned to the 12 inchs of rain..
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 12, 2017, 05:16:12 PM
18z GFS returns with frozen precip on the night of the 25th.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 12, 2017, 05:29:45 PM
The rainfall amounts that model is projecting are alarming, but hopefully this is spread out over several days instead of too much all at once. Also, hopefully the model is overdoing amounts at that extended range.

Looks like a wet period anyway you cut it.

18Z GFS, thankfully, no longer has the insane 10+ inch rain amounts in our area, but still looks like a very wet period with some flooding issues possible. 

Nevertheless, a long way off.  From the bizarre temperature flux at the end of its run (Arctic air moving into the east U.S., then seemingly retreating backwards), I don't think it has a good handle on the changing pattern. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 12, 2017, 05:51:46 PM
18Z GFS, thankfully, no longer has the insane 10+ inch rain amounts in our area, but still looks like a very wet period with some flooding issues possible. 

Nevertheless, a long way off.  From the bizarre temperature flux at the end of its run (Arctic air moving into the east U.S., then seemingly retreating backwards), I don't think it has a good handle on the changing pattern.
thats about a classic of a ice storm look as you will ever see... areas to the nw... could be devastating in those areas that get hit... wreg s tim simpson is kind of letting public know already... seriously.... saying a major storm system around xmas could put a big damper in plans... he said we will watch this as we draw much closer ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 12, 2017, 06:31:21 PM
After this week, the mean trough tries to realign itself more toward the Plains, keeping us more in a southwesterly flow aloft, at least for a time, and also opening up the Gulf, which has been closed off lately.  It's definitely a pattern reshuffle from where we are now, and will make for an interesting Christmas season.  Hopefully, we won't be 60 with thunderstorms.   ;D

EDIT: But I will take 60 with thunderstorms if it's followed by a 30 degree temperature plunge and snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 12, 2017, 07:53:01 PM
We are discussing 2 weeks away so things could go either way temp wise. There for sure is a strong signal for a stormy pattern though.
No doubt, the warm cold battle could change a couple of more times in the next week alone. Way to early to say which side of it we would or will be on, I've seen this rodeo before. The only thing right now is we have a storm signal, that is the main thing. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 12, 2017, 08:03:55 PM
18z GFS was all over the flippin' place. We'll be unclear about temps until this weekend. Til then, I won't take a chance for snow seriously. (Not that anybody is either)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 12, 2017, 09:33:02 PM
It's way to early to take anything to seriously yet for warm or cold for that time period. It could fall either way. Heck at this point it is not even a guarantee of a storm, but I do think the signal is pretty strong for some type of system. Once we get 5-7 days out you can start putting more stock in things. And even then things could still be dicey and change, especially if we have a arctic boundary and a SER battle zone and our area is in the middle of it. ::popcorn:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::cold::  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 12, 2017, 10:46:40 PM
Ha another night and a gfs reversal. This one has arctic front before Christmas with a Christas eve sleet event plateau westward which sinks down to the gulf coast with major ice and sleet on the big day itself. One of many changes and again grain of salt for a few more days
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 12, 2017, 11:14:33 PM
The potential for the cold is there. What we have this December was not present in 2015 or 2016.

Upper Great Plains should experience some much-needed snowpack development by next week.


Post Merge: December 12, 2017, 11:23:13 PM
[attachimg=1]

Old news, but breathtakingly low snow totals in KS/OK last year. I-44 got nothin'. That section of the country has still not received anything thus far this winter.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 13, 2017, 12:36:44 AM
Ha another night and a gfs reversal. This one has arctic front before Christmas with a Christas eve sleet event plateau westward which sinks down to the gulf coast with major ice and sleet on the big day itself. One of many changes and again grain of salt for a few more days
its just to alarming to me... everything Iím seeing screams a major ice storm...
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: cgauxknox on December 13, 2017, 05:59:38 AM
its just to alarming to me... everything Iím seeing screams a major ice storm...
Even though East TN seems to be out of the discussion for now it's about that time of year for me to fire up the portable generator and top off my fuel supply.  Ever since living through the ice storm of '96 here, when I was fortunately living on campus as an undergrad and never lost power, I've worried about ice.  The woodshed is full and you can bet I'll be well stocked on essentials if there's even a hint of an ice storm in the forecast.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 13, 2017, 06:42:30 AM
I would not be upset or put off to never see freezing rain during the winter.  It's by far the least enjoyable and most destructive of Winter's arsenal.  It's just rain.  But it's rain with temperatures below freezing.  Rain at 35 is galling.  But rain at 25?  That's just wrong!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: snowdog on December 13, 2017, 07:30:26 AM
Ha another night and a gfs reversal. This one has arctic front before Christmas with a Christas eve sleet event plateau westward which sinks down to the gulf coast with major ice and sleet on the big day itself. One of many changes and again grain of salt for a few more days

GFS gonna GFS. Should be coming into Euros range today. Will be interesting to watch the Euros setup over the next few days.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Eric on December 13, 2017, 07:58:26 AM
6z GFS spits out a Miller-type storm with a legit area of low(er) pressure.  Areas north of a Savannah-Nashville-Red Boiling Springs line see frozen precip - ZR/IP - and the favored snow areas near the TN/KY border see more -SN/IP.  Temp profiles very marginal.  It won't take much of a wobble to either give the state a cold rain or a pretty good plastering if the cold air can matriculate a little further south. 

I'll give it to the GFS...it definitely sees *something* out there.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mamMATTus on December 13, 2017, 08:53:26 AM
I think itís safe to say weíve got a major storm system for the Christmas time frame, I just hope itís all snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: cleTNwx on December 13, 2017, 08:56:19 AM
06z.......It's Baaaaaaaack!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 13, 2017, 09:35:33 AM
I just had the mother of all terrible engineering finals this morning.

I could use some Christmas comfort and a big winter storm.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on December 13, 2017, 09:39:25 AM
However it turns out, we have something to watch for the Christmas time period.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: bugalou on December 13, 2017, 10:15:17 AM
Someone could get hammered with ZR in this event.  Its going to be a light but persistent event - pretty much the worst case for ZR since you wont have heavy precip to wash the forming ice away, or pull down the warm overrunning air.  No telling where the freezing line sets up but it certainly has the look.  That said, its still a long ways out, but has been a persistent feature.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 13, 2017, 11:46:21 AM
12z wasnít nearly bad to be honest. No se ridge in place artic air comes crashing   Result we  cold chasing moisture in this run .. with that steep ridge out west nearly 598dm. Hard believe no we ridge. Lol

Post Merge: December 13, 2017, 11:47:51 AM
Course meant se ridge. Lol edit
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mamMATTus on December 13, 2017, 11:59:20 AM
12z looks like it reduces ZR and increases snow coverage overall, but less precip totals overall. Also brings in another storm around the 29th with a low popping over northern Mexico/south Texas. I like it! Iíve got AWD and snow-rated tires still from when I lived in Denver...bring it on Old Man!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 13, 2017, 12:01:03 PM
12Z GFS does seem to be a colder run than the one I looked at last night.  It shows two possible decent winter weather events.  One around 12/24 and the other on 12/29.   I didn't see much ice around here during either event--which was a good thing. 

Post Merge: December 13, 2017, 12:03:00 PM
12z looks like it reduces ZR and increases snow coverage overall, but less precip totals overall. Also brings in another storm around the 29th with a low popping over northern Mexico/south Texas. I like it! Iíve got AWD and snow-rated tires still from when I lived in Denver...bring it on Old Man!

Just noticed that myself.  Overall, looks like the Christmas week could be a lot of fun around these parts.   ::applause::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on December 13, 2017, 12:40:38 PM
I dig it!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: snowdog on December 13, 2017, 12:53:05 PM
I just had the mother of all terrible engineering finals this morning.

I could use some Christmas comfort and a big winter storm.

Lol, been there done that...too many times. TTU 2002.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 13, 2017, 01:09:06 PM
One thing I did notice over the last few days is the changing NAO/AO forecast.  A few days ago, models had both swinging in positive territory--hence (perhaps) the warming forecast for the eastern U.S.  Now, after a brief stint into positive territory, the NAO is forecast to hover near neutral, and the AO is trending back towards negative.   It will be interesting to see how the forecast looks by week's end.  ::coffee::

(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif)
Title: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 13, 2017, 01:20:38 PM
Looking at the GEFS which is better at the Ops for a couple more days, definite uptick in the snow dept state wide
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171213/02701f784ec03bfe60fb866a39085a21.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 13, 2017, 01:41:03 PM
12z euro says. Whatís the fuss about ? What cold?lol
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 13, 2017, 04:44:13 PM
18z GFS is out to 324, it's all snow on the 22nd and 23rd on this run so far. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: WXHD on December 13, 2017, 04:46:15 PM
18z GFS is out to 324, it's all snow on the 22nd and 23rd on this run so far. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Looks good. Showing 2in at 10:1. It's purdy.

Post Merge: December 13, 2017, 04:50:24 PM
Well..... Xmas looks a little dicey.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mamMATTus on December 13, 2017, 05:01:33 PM
Can we keep the 18z please?
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 13, 2017, 05:13:10 PM
Good run for snow in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.  But what peaks my interest is the depth and breath of cold air covering a lot more of the U.S.  Big boy 1050 Arctic high squashing Mr. Bermuda High back to the tropics.  Maybe it's just the beginning of fun times.

Whoa--also a big Gulf low riding somewhere along the Apps toward the end of the run.  That could be a problem.  Big hodgepodge of snow, ice and rain.  Cold air damming east of the Apps could hammer them with an ice storm.

Long way off in voodoo land, but fun to speculate. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 13, 2017, 05:51:13 PM
Cash the 18z in and call it a winter. Endless possibilities with that run.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 13, 2017, 06:44:25 PM
 ::faint:: at the height of the western ridge... on 18zgfs...folks that even comes close being true... were fixing to flirt with zero degree temps down the line ::cold:: ::cold::   only snow cover will make it colder even
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 13, 2017, 07:09:09 PM
::faint:: at the height of the western ridge... on 18zgfs...folks that even comes close being true... were fixing to flirt with zero degree temps down the line ::cold:: ::cold::   only snow cover will make it colder even

Like VolNation, Winter makin' a comeback  >:D
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: WXHD on December 13, 2017, 07:23:10 PM
::faint:: at the height of the western ridge... on 18zgfs...folks that even comes close being true... were fixing to flirt with zero degree temps down the line ::cold:: ::cold::   only snow cover will make it colder even

I've two Bradford pears in my yard that I am taking down before xmas. I don't trust this sh*t at all.  They're an invasive species and need to go but, I look at the damage they can do to my property and the potential every single southern winter...... they're getting the axe.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 13, 2017, 07:37:15 PM
I've two Bradford pears in my yard that I am taking down before xmas. I don't trust this sh*t at all.  They're an invasive species and need to go but, I look at the damage they can do to my property and the potential every single southern winter...... they're getting the axe.

They are EXTREMELY invasive.  So much so, they should be banned from being sold.  But every spring you'll see Lowe's and Home Depot selling them by the hundreds. 

Where my parents live in Kentucky, there are abandoned fields literally growning forests of these trees, and the offspring of the Bradford has thorns, and are nearly impossilbe to get rid of without chemicals.  You cut them down, and they come back from the roots.  It's becoming as bad as the other scourge of the South--Kudzu. 

Unfortunately, I planted two in my parents yard back in the 90's, before we knew how bad they were.  Within 20 years, both had split in half in a simple spring thunderstorm. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: WXHD on December 13, 2017, 08:04:19 PM
They are EXTREMELY invasive.  So much so, they should be banned from being sold.  But every spring you'll see Lowe's and Home Depot selling them by the hundreds. 

Where my parents live in Kentucky, there are abandoned fields literally growning forests of these trees, and the offspring of the Bradford has thorns, and are nearly impossilbe to get rid of without chemicals.  You cut them down, and they come back from the roots.  It's becoming as bad as the other scourge of the South--Kudzu. 

Unfortunately, I planted two in my parents yard back in the 90's, before we knew how bad they were.  Within 20 years, both had split in half in a simple spring thunderstorm.

Yep. They need to go
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 13, 2017, 08:43:36 PM
mother of god at the snowfall totals on the 18z gfs... parts of the southeast...  lol
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on December 13, 2017, 08:45:18 PM
mother of god at the snowfall totals on the 18z gfs... parts of the southeast...  lol
Whatíre the totals Bruce?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 13, 2017, 08:48:04 PM
Whatíre the totals Bruce?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
was  trying post ... but wont let me paste... found it on southern site...
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 13, 2017, 08:56:21 PM
18z GEFS mean.

(http://i63.tinypic.com/33w9vur.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 13, 2017, 08:58:22 PM
18z GEFS mean.

(http://i63.tinypic.com/33w9vur.jpg)
cant find my chat  link dyer... got feeling chat fixing to get fired up soon...
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mempho on December 13, 2017, 09:02:22 PM
18z GEFS mean.

(http://i63.tinypic.com/33w9vur.jpg)
You have a cut of the scale there, Dyer.  Looks like 3 to 7, statewide -  if my memory is correct??

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on December 13, 2017, 09:05:12 PM
cant find my chat  link dyer... got feeling chat fixing to get fired up soon...

Chat is only good with alcohol.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 13, 2017, 09:08:29 PM
i got some in the cabinet drift....
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on December 13, 2017, 09:11:03 PM
Reel in some good ole winter weather while I'm home from around the 22nd-Jan 5th. Except for a few days down in Ms.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 13, 2017, 09:32:29 PM
Reel in some good ole winter weather while I'm home from around the 22nd-Jan 5th. Except for a few days down in Ms.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
our luck... snow go south of us  and you will get bombed down there in ms. lol
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 13, 2017, 09:47:51 PM
You have a cut of the scale there, Dyer.  Looks like 3 to 7, statewide -  if my memory is correct??

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
It is 2 to 4 statewide. That is really good for a mean.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: cloudcrash619 on December 13, 2017, 09:59:29 PM
I go to college in Nebraska and there's been nothing but a couple of flizzards so far. Would be funny to finally see something while at home for Christmas break!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on December 13, 2017, 10:02:07 PM
What does the 0Z have in store for us tonight?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 13, 2017, 10:17:23 PM
What does the 0Z have in store for us tonight?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Running now, it's only out to 144 right now. Won't be long now. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on December 13, 2017, 10:45:10 PM
What does the 0Z have in store for us tonight?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
HUGE disappointment so far...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: memphishogfan on December 13, 2017, 10:47:08 PM
The dreaded I-44 Special
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 13, 2017, 10:47:20 PM
HUGE disappointment so far...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Meh day 10-11 long ways to go. Iíd be shocked to see that big of a high get that much resistance
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mamMATTus on December 13, 2017, 10:48:14 PM
Not a good run for the 12z. All wintry precip has been pushed north and west into southern IL, Missouri, northwest AR, Oklahoma and Texas.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on December 13, 2017, 10:49:00 PM
I-44 for the win here.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: wfrogge on December 13, 2017, 10:50:53 PM
Meh day 10-11 long ways to go. Iíd be shocked to see that big of a high get that much resistance

You must get shocked a lot :)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 13, 2017, 10:52:07 PM
You must get shocked a lot :)

I am quite often actually!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 13, 2017, 10:53:03 PM

Post Merge: December 13, 2017, 10:55:41 PM
Meh day 10-11 long ways to go. Iíd be shocked to see that big of a high get that much resistance
That's what this novice weather man was thinking. I was like good grief it hangs forever and doesn't move much at all. We will see, probably not the first swing in the models runs with this. One thing is for sure a signal for some type of storm has been pretty steady give or take a day on each side of Christmas. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 13, 2017, 10:56:00 PM
Back to the flood. 8 to 12 inches or more of rain for a huge area. All of East Arkansas, west Tennessee and up the Ohio river. Days of ice and snow to the north. Gonna be a long 10 days.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on December 13, 2017, 10:58:06 PM
It's gonna be a ride for sure.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 13, 2017, 11:05:24 PM
That 0z gfs run to me spells disaster ... like big ice . To close for comfort...
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 13, 2017, 11:06:59 PM

That 0z gfs run to me spells disaster ... like big ice . To close for comfort...
You always have to be leary that the models may not be handling the arctic boundary very well. If this storm comes together as advertised, no matter where it sets up somebody is going to probably get some serious ice. That is for sure. It may be I-44 or I-40 or somewhere close to either but more than likely ice for at least some would be a good bet. But all kinds of weather could be in play, a pure hodgepodge. And during Christmas week to boot. Exciting week of watching ahead. Time for the snowman dance ceremonies to start. ::rofl:: ::guitar:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 13, 2017, 11:37:39 PM
That run actually has support from the earlier euro run. Thatís a massive high bleeding in so should be interesting to see where it brakes. And of course its 10 plus days out.

GEFS bleeds the cold air in with quite an icy look much more west than east right around Christmas day
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 13, 2017, 11:40:51 PM
We all know it will be like this:

Dec. 24:

Nashville: 57F, rain
Memphis: 55F, rain
Clarksville: 52F, rain
Paducah: 44F, rain, ice late
St. Louis: 37F, rain to snow
Tulsa: 31F, blizzard
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 13, 2017, 11:41:24 PM
That run actually has support from the earlier euro run. Thatís a massive high bleeding in so should be interesting to see where it brakes. And of course its 10 plus days out.

GEFS bleeds the cold air in with quite an icy look much more west than east right around Christmas day
that is one stout se ridge on the gfs  wow
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 13, 2017, 11:41:49 PM
And for extra salt in the wound, somebody in central Arkansas will get 14" of snow.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 13, 2017, 11:48:27 PM
that is one stout se ridge on the gfs  wow
I don't believe it either, ::rofl:: now watch it happen. But seriously this thing could be fun to track, interested to see if we get some consistency with that boundary as we get closer. These arctic boundaries can be tricky. Also will be interesting to see just how big and bad that SER is really going to be, along with how much of a south east push the arctic air can make.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 13, 2017, 11:50:17 PM
Latest gefs run is crippling I mean crippling ice storm western mid south
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 13, 2017, 11:57:52 PM
Latest gefs run is crippling I mean crippling ice storm western mid south
How far east and south there Bruce?
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 13, 2017, 11:59:44 PM
How far east and south there Bruce?
pretty much along ms river snowman

Post Merge: December 14, 2017, 04:16:17 AM
man the southeast ridge is flexing its muscles on the 0z euro... WOW
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on December 14, 2017, 06:34:49 AM
6Z GFS is no bueno.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: snowdog on December 14, 2017, 06:46:45 AM
You must get shocked a lot :)

Whole house humidifier will help with that.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 14, 2017, 06:52:52 AM
I see the GFS has some insane rain amounts in the Tennessee Valley yet again, and it's still raining at the end of the run.  That would make sense if the Arctic boundary really gets stuck here that long, but I'm not buying that right now.  Just two days ago the GFS had a similar solution of a mega southeast ridge and warmth here, then the next run showed the ridge getting shoved out.  That makes more sense, but I guess we'll see what the next few runs show.  I think the GFS is just being the GFS.  Goofy and full of. . . . . . .    ::shaking_finger::

Edit: If this run of the GFS is to be believed, it will be raining almost continually from December 22nd to the 30th, and possibly beyond.  Forget Marshmallow World--its gonna be a water world around here. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on December 14, 2017, 07:18:07 AM
Want dry air- check out LA... dew point of -27 yesterday with a air temperature at 82.


NWS Los Angeles
@NWSLosAngeles

Dec 13
How dry was it? Around 2 pm today, @VanNuysAirport recorded a temp of 82į and a dewpoint of -27į. That was 1% relative humidity and a dewpoint depression of 109į. #SantaAnaWind #LAHeat #CAwx


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 14, 2017, 07:58:04 AM
Want dry air- check out LA... dew point of -27 yesterday with a air temperature at 82.


NWS Los Angeles
@NWSLosAngeles

Dec 13
How dry was it? Around 2 pm today, @VanNuysAirport recorded a temp of 82į and a dewpoint of -27į. That was 1% relative humidity and a dewpoint depression of 109į. #SantaAnaWind #LAHeat #CAwx


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Wow, didn't realize the dewpoint could go so low.  Talk about static electricity!  I bet no one over there has carpet!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Eric on December 14, 2017, 07:58:40 AM
In these types of synoptic battles, the ridge typically wins out over the cold air.  Doesn't seem to matter how strong the Arctic high is, either.  If there's a battle already at H250+, one can probably assume that battle has already been lost.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 14, 2017, 08:09:04 AM
In these types of synoptic battles, the ridge typically wins out over the cold air.  Doesn't seem to matter how strong the Arctic high is, either.  If there's a battle already at H250+, one can probably assume that battle has already been lost.
agree. Now do think after or around new year  be our best shot at a winter storm. Eventually artic will fill in with time
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 14, 2017, 08:17:11 AM
In these types of synoptic battles, the ridge typically wins out over the cold air.  Doesn't seem to matter how strong the Arctic high is, either.  If there's a battle already at H250+, one can probably assume that battle has already been lost.

In that case, here's the perfect gift for that special someone this Christmas season. . .

(http://thefashionreporter.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/april-5.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on December 14, 2017, 08:19:12 AM
In that case, here's the perfect gift for that special someone this Christmas season. . .

(http://thefashionreporter.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/april-5.jpg)

The gift that keeps on giving.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 14, 2017, 08:23:53 AM
In these types of synoptic battles, the ridge typically wins out over the cold air.  Doesn't seem to matter how strong the Arctic high is, either.  If there's a battle already at H250+, one can probably assume that battle has already been lost.

Seems like itís definitely gaining support and honestly-climatology argues for the southern plains and Midwest.

The gfs is just getting into its wheelhouse and the euro should be hitting Christmas Day and after period tomorrow. There are arguments against the SER as well- meaning a huge negative EPO and favorable cold MJO phases.

Meanwhile the 6z LR GEFS (identical to the 0z ) still suggests a slow bleed eastward from Christmas Day onward with  huge slug of moisture to boot in the warm air pre and cold air post. All the snow in Arkansas and Tennessee is actually ice and sleet.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171214/60de4d918182df83acc47ca3b9b17cbf.jpg)

You get the general idea of a Southwest to northeast stalled boundary here with copious moisture and frozen precipitation somewhere.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 14, 2017, 08:38:17 AM
In that case, here's the perfect gift for that special someone this Christmas season. . .

(http://thefashionreporter.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/april-5.jpg)
may want add boat to gift list also
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 14, 2017, 08:39:19 AM
In situations where the cold air oozes south like molasses against a ridge, east Tennessee will more than likely get plain rain.  The plateau usually does a decent job keeping shallow, low level cold air at bay.  Now if the cold air was already here, we might have a problem.

I'll be traveling in Kentucky during the Christmas holiday.  I guess I better throw a blanket or two in the car in case I get stuck somewhere. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 14, 2017, 08:51:30 AM
Going over latest euro weeklies .after mid January Iím changing gears getting ready for a winter La NiŮa severe special ... seems very plausible by then going into February
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 14, 2017, 09:04:47 AM
Still very early in the game for the pre and post Christmas storm, while the SER wins many times in these situations many times shallow arctic air goes further than modeled as well. It could be a I-44 special for sure, but not throwing in the towel yet by any means. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 14, 2017, 09:41:04 AM
Still very early in the game for the pre and post Christmas storm, while the SER wins many times in these situations many times shallow arctic air goes further than modeled as well. It could be a I-44 special for sure, but not throwing in the towel yet by any means. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Yup, still plenty of model runs before Christmas.  12Z is running now.  Let's see what it has to say. . .
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: cgauxknox on December 14, 2017, 10:21:51 AM
I'll be traveling in Kentucky during the Christmas holiday.  I guess I better throw a blanket or two in the car in case I get stuck somewhere.

For several years I had a 50 mile one way commute.  I got in the habit then of keeping insulated coveralls and boots in the trunk.  They went in the truck last weekend when I had to go to Bristol and will probably stay there until spring.  Warmer than a blanket plus helpful to be out changin a tire or something else.

That said, the modeling looks like the kind of system that may surprise some people one way or the other.  We'll likely prepare for it regardless of where the forecasts land.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mamMATTus on December 14, 2017, 10:32:30 AM
12z is cold chasing a lot of moisture which is par for the course for this area. Willing to be that will be the final solution.
Title: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 14, 2017, 10:36:42 AM
Geez thatís a really cold forecast from the 23rd on. No SER in this neck of the woods.

Thatís a completely different run than last night. Cold air barrels down and has LP with snow right after Christmas
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Coach B on December 14, 2017, 10:38:11 AM
Thru hour 216 the 12Z pushes the cold much farther into the state than the 06z run. Still nothing like the 18Z yesterday.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 14, 2017, 10:41:29 AM
Through 228 the cold is further south, not to the extent of the earlier runs but more south. We will see where this goes in the next few frames. Edit- ice breaking out from west of Memphis all the way across the southern half and west and middle tn at 240. SER winning all the way to the ohio river at 252, all rain for the mid and upper south at that point. EDIT-Overall a further colder push but not enough. Pretty much a rain event, but it is still out there. I also noticed the HP's were a little stronger overall this run.  ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Eric on December 14, 2017, 10:46:52 AM
Through 240 and Christmas gets flooded.  Closest ice is back across the Ozarks - and GASP - Tulsa.  Looking at a rainy 50F Christmas morning.  Ick.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Coach B on December 14, 2017, 10:52:05 AM
12Z was a definite improvment over the 6Z. Instead of being solidly in the warm sector thru the run we were generally right in the battle zone. Still mostly wet.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 14, 2017, 10:54:49 AM
Through 240 and Christmas gets flooded.  Closest ice is back across the Ozarks - and GASP - Tulsa.  Looking at a rainy 50F Christmas morning.  Ick.
One of us is on the wrong date I need to check mine to make sure cause Iím seeing something different
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 14, 2017, 10:56:58 AM
One of us is on the wrong date I need to check mine to make sure cause Iím seeing something different

I do believe that would be me!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 14, 2017, 10:58:14 AM
The very end of the run has I-40 north with some type of frozen. At 240 things looked interesting, but at 252 the SER looks like it is winning with the frozen way north and west. All of Tn and Ky rain after that, until the end of the run where it looks colder with frozen precip in the northern half of west and middle tn. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 14, 2017, 11:10:08 AM
Now that Iím ACTUALLY on the 14th, 12z has the arctic boundary moving through on the 23rd, freezing rain and sleet for west TN, then front moves north on Christmas Day with rain. New day new solution
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 14, 2017, 11:51:25 AM
Still on the line for 12Z. This run looks like the most realistic forecast yet, despite the rapid temperature shifts. Freezing weather on Christmas Eve turns into 60F on Christmas Day...  ::pondering:: Interesting

GFS is still all over the place. It's fun to spectate, but we know we can't get a clear shot on this/these system(s) until early next week. For now,   ::popcorn::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 14, 2017, 11:51:49 AM
Bet the 12z euro wonít bulge ... hear comes the real deal in few minutes
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on December 14, 2017, 11:57:25 AM
My pet peeve is when a winter storm forecast for middle and west TN turns out to be a bust, but somewhere in effing Arkansas receives a foot of snow. Just me or does anyone else hate that..
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 14, 2017, 12:00:56 PM
I do believe that would be me!

At our age, it happens.   ;)

One thing is for certain, it WILL be wet.  Cold?  Maybe, maybe not. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on December 14, 2017, 12:05:48 PM
My pet peeve is when a winter storm forecast for middle and west TN turns out to be a bust, but somewhere in effing Arkansas receives a foot of snow. Just me or does anyone else hate that..

I'm right there with ya!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 14, 2017, 12:15:19 PM
The CMC which did very well with last weeks snow to the south has plenty of cold air at the end of run on Christmas Eve. It just does not have a storm. Looks nothing like GFS.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 14, 2017, 12:26:48 PM
The fact that the GFS has a wildly different solution with each run makes it unreliable.  Consistency is needed at some point before any solution is believable.  3 runs with a similar result, perhaps?
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Eric on December 14, 2017, 12:39:43 PM
The fact that the GFS has a wildly different solution with each run makes it unreliable.  Consistency is needed at some point before any solution is believable.  3 runs with a similar result, perhaps?

You're not going to have a consistent run-to-run solution with the GFS until you're within 3 days.  The GFS suite has a major issue with data fluctuations, especially at 200+ hours.  The 6z and 18z suites are based on old data.  Only the 0z and 12z suites are based on actual metered/measured data.  It's a crappy global model, but it's the only one we have.  Thank God for the Euro.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 14, 2017, 12:46:05 PM
Looks like the Euro is gonna flip its overnight run now. WAAYYY further south with the cold than last night pre Christmas...still running.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: bugalou on December 14, 2017, 01:04:39 PM
The fact that the GFS has a wildly different solution with each run makes it unreliable.  Consistency is needed at some point before any solution is believable.  3 runs with a similar result, perhaps?

At this range?  IMO the GFS has been very consistent considering the range.  You have to look at the bigger picture at that range and not the fine details, then compare those against the other runs (and ensemble members).  For that far out, this is what good consistency looks like.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: justinmundie on December 14, 2017, 01:08:11 PM
I like how things are setting up at 240 on the euro. Cold air in place, nice high pressure to the north, and gulf moisture moving in.

But its 10 days out.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on December 14, 2017, 01:12:54 PM
I like how things are setting up at 240 on the euro. Cold air in place, nice high pressure to the north, and gulf moisture moving in.

But its 10 days out.

Its setting up for a LP to ride out of the SW and into the SE along the boundary. If there was another frame I would bet lots of frozen precip spreading north into TN. But as you said- its out there. But what a drastic improvement over the SER that's almost squashed on this run.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Coach B on December 14, 2017, 01:13:19 PM
Euro and Canadian are pretty similar at day 10. TBH they are not that much different than the GFS considering how far out we are. Model swings from all three in the last few runs. Certainly have the players on the field. Will be fun to watch and see if some of us can score.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 14, 2017, 01:31:06 PM
Euro 10 day. Could be setting a gulf type lp. With deep cold air in place ummm. Fun times ahead
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mtcards on December 14, 2017, 01:46:37 PM
The fact that the GFS has a wildly different solution with each run makes it unreliable.  Consistency is needed at some point before any solution is believable.  3 runs with a similar result, perhaps?

I think the GFS has been pretty consistent in terms of a storm around that time.  Where it has been wild is on the temperatures while the storm passes
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Eric on December 14, 2017, 02:09:48 PM
Look what popped up into my Twitter feed...

(http://i66.tinypic.com/2ujmpvp.png)

 ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 14, 2017, 02:27:44 PM
I think the GFS has been pretty consistent in terms of a storm around that time.  Where it has been wild is on the temperatures while the storm passes

Its been far from consistent in terms of temperatures, but as Eric said, it is what it is--the GFS.  As I heard on another site, it's about pattern recognition.  And if what the GFS spits out doesn't jive with the pattern (temp wise), then it's probably still trying to find it's way.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 14, 2017, 02:29:10 PM
At this range?  IMO the GFS has been very consistent considering the range.  You have to look at the bigger picture at that range and not the fine details, then compare those against the other runs (and ensemble members).  For that far out, this is what good consistency looks like.
Absolutely agree. No way to tell details but usually when the GFS locks on to a big storm that far out and has it run after run there is something to it. Just don't know details yet.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on December 14, 2017, 02:39:07 PM
Got agree with Eric Fisher ... get anything frozen . H5 pattern screams ice... thatís case I pull for more sleet. Vs Fz rain
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on December 14, 2017, 02:39:58 PM
At this range?  IMO the GFS has been very consistent considering the range.  You have to look at the bigger picture at that range and not the fine details, then compare those against the other runs (and ensemble members).  For that far out, this is what good consistency looks like.

I was talking about the swings in temperatures over the last few days--not the storm it had locked onto.  It's obvious it sees something big as far as a storm, but just a few days ago it was showing so much warmth here, that local TV meteorologists were saying a 'pattern flip' was coming to warmer and a white Christmas looked unlikely.  Two days later, it showed snow, and the warmth deeply suppressed to the south. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: NashRugger on December 14, 2017, 03:50:54 PM
This far out still, it's kind of pointless to drool over temps because that will not come into focus for at least another 3-5 days potentially, and then you've got the short-term crap to look at. So a system, or a couple of them riding the frontal zone, is highly likely but the finer things this far out is just whatever.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Susan on December 14, 2017, 04:51:58 PM
The bigger picture for me is to have all the grocery and gift shopping finished by the 22nd, and to not depend upon any last minute package delivery.  The models have been consistent enough to not plan accordingly, if nothing comes of it I still win.  The stores are chaotic just before Christmas when the weather is fine, I don't even want to imagine what they will look like next week if storm talk starts popping on social media. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Eric on December 14, 2017, 04:55:13 PM
18z GFS =

(https://media.giphy.com/media/baPIkfAo0Iv5K/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on December 14, 2017, 04:58:38 PM
18z gfs was close to ice on the 23rd-24th for much of us, actually some ice in extreme west tn and southern middle at times. Ice shown in ark and southwest ky for muc of that time period. But was mainly a rain event, but the storm was there. Of course the temp and precip type right now aren't in stone. But the storm signal remains. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: skillsweather on December 14, 2017, 05:38:13 PM
So basically if we end up with rain it will be a lot of it and if it ends up being snow it will lessen the extent of the precip we actually get since we will be on the cold dryer side? Is that basically the 2 rough scenarios in play atm?
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mempho on December 14, 2017, 05:48:22 PM
Still no thread the Christmas storm?  Come on, people - live a little.

I don't believe it's going to be a bust but so stay if it does? 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk