Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Winter Weather => Topic started by: Curt on July 20, 2017, 11:15:39 AM

Title: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on July 20, 2017, 11:15:39 AM
I think it's appropriate to start since we are approaching excessive heat on the late July day. Go get 'em.

Weak modoki El Niño conditions with last 2 winters in record warm territory?  Crossing fingers....
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on July 20, 2017, 11:35:47 AM
I think it's appropriate to start since we are approaching excessive heat on the late July day. Go get 'em.

Weak modoki El Niño conditions with last 2 winters in record warm territory?  Crossing fingers....

Actually, I think we are very close to climatological peak of summer heat (about one month after solstice). If you look at climate records, as I recall, the daily averages begin to (albeit very sloooooowly at first) drop in late July. The climatological averages (as I recall, looking at this stuff in the past) will lose a degree or two over the next few weeks into August, before accelerating a downward trend as we head toward September. So, we could say that the descent into winter climatologically begins right about now.  ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on July 20, 2017, 01:46:08 PM
Actually, I think we are very close to climatological peak of summer heat (about one month after solstice). If you look at climate records, as I recall, the daily averages begin to (albeit very sloooooowly at first) drop in late July. The climatological averages (as I recall, looking at this stuff in the past) will lose a degree or two over the next few weeks into August, before accelerating a downward trend as we head toward September. So, we could say that the descent into winter climatologically begins right about now.  ;)

I'm waiting on someone to say " just look what you've done. It's all your fault".
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: cgauxknox on July 20, 2017, 02:21:39 PM
So, we could say that the descent into winter climatologically begins right about now.  ;)
I'll gladly take a descent into autumn for a while; it's been a long time since we had a good, colorful, crisp fall season in East TN.  I'm always a big fan when we do get one; the cooler air after a hot summer coupled with college football and all the great cooking that starts happening that time of year is almost magic.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Nashville_Wx on July 20, 2017, 03:25:21 PM
I would take a carbon copy of laster winter but a little bit cooler. I was lucky enough to make it back to Nashville for the 3" we had on March 11th. It was a nice welcoming home. Its impossibe to tell if our localized area will cash out. As I always love snow IMBY , its TN and we must be mobile.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on July 20, 2017, 07:29:32 PM
As a youngin', it was usually this time of the year my thoughts turned toward winter and snow.  Guess it must genetic if other people do the same thing.   :D ::snow::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on July 20, 2017, 09:53:36 PM
As a youngin', it was usually this time of the year my thoughts turned toward winter and snow.  Guess it must genetic if other people do the same thing.   :D ::snow::
when i was a young boy... my thoughts about this time year turned to football... and it still does... ::yum::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: cgauxknox on July 21, 2017, 06:26:39 AM
when i was a young boy... my thoughts about this time year turned to football... and it still does... ::yum::
Well, there's certainly not going to be any freeze for Ole Miss fans this season  ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on July 21, 2017, 08:47:21 PM
Football and winter snows are for sure in my thoughts. ::popcorn:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on July 22, 2017, 04:40:23 PM
Football, falling leaves, falling temperatures and tailgating all go hand in hand.  :)

Of course, most of my "tailgating" now happens on the deck these days.  ::yum::

Post Merge: July 22, 2017, 04:45:05 PM
I'm waiting on someone to say " just look what you've done. It's all your fault".

Well, you did skip autumn altogether, but o well.   ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 22, 2017, 08:25:02 PM
The modoki El Niño has my attention. Let's see if Curt has the mojo this year.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on July 23, 2017, 07:45:05 AM
The modoki El Niño has my attention. Let's see if Curt has the mojo this year.  ::fingerscrossed::
from what i have been reading from some good winter posters on other site... any type of el nino this winter seems to be fading...   neutral? :-\ l

Post Merge: July 23, 2017, 07:48:38 AM
I'm waiting on someone to say " just look what you've done. It's all your fault".
o, just wait... this will happen when were about 2 third of winter done...no snow and some torchy temps have occured >:D

Post Merge: July 23, 2017, 09:48:45 AM
just to sort of edit my last post bit...  curt to be honest... should be in all honest pretty safe from someone blaming you for a bad winter... cause you didnt label it as a epic winter, as we all know isnt going to happen again perhaps in our lifetime... someone had to start the topic... good time as any bud... ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: bugalou on July 23, 2017, 11:26:16 PM
This far out, I don't have much to go on except looking at our over all pattern year to date and extrapolation combined with past experience with midsouth weather and sea surface temp patterns.

That being said, right now my feeling is a cold mid to late fall, warm Dec and part of January, then a cold end to the winter.  It's hopeless to predict snow and winter weather, but I bet we see a minor shot of it late in the fall, and February is always the best time here for snow so it being cold then is ideal.

I will reply in a few months with something more scientific, but for the sake of discussion this is my best guess currently.

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Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: wfrogge on July 24, 2017, 01:11:35 PM
Jan 11th 2018 for a wicked mixed precipitation event over the west part of the state. Making the call now  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: StormNine on July 25, 2017, 07:32:35 PM
Quote
Ocean temperatures at the surface of the tropical Pacific are warm enough to meet the ocean threshold for El Niño, but the atmosphere still hasn't reacted. According to the latest forecast, ENSO-neutral remains the most likely (50 to ~55% chance) outcome through Northern Hemisphere fall 2017
\

From NOAA.

It looks like it will be a Neutral although a Weak El-Nino cannot be completely ruled out. The PDO looks to be on the + side and the PNA, for the most part, has been + recently. If those stay on the + side then I think we have at least a decent shot for a respectable winter. 

One thing to always remember is that it only takes 1 or 2 events to make a winter. For a good deal of Middle TN and KY the winter of 15-16 was a snowy winter, but it was also a very warm winter overall.  The Winter of 13-14 was a classic cold winter, but the I-40 corridor from Memphis to Jackson to Nashville got shafted when it came to snow. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Coach B on July 26, 2017, 07:41:13 AM
\
One thing to always remember is that it only takes 1 or 2 events to make a winter. For a good deal of Middle TN and KY the winter of 15-16 was a snowy winter, but it was also a very warm winter overall.  The Winter of 13-14 was a classic cold winter, but the I-40 corridor from Memphis to Jackson to Nashville got shafted when it came to snow.

Good points. Jan 2014 at OHX had seven days with lows in the single digits and  was -5.3 for the month.  Grand total of 0.4" of snow to show for it.  ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on July 31, 2017, 06:19:30 PM
Most of our recent colder, snowier winters from 2013 to 2015 seemed to have one common factor--a warm pool of water in the north Pacific off of North America's west coast.  Additionally, most of those winters saw an absence of any prolonged -NAO/AO.  So, the warm water there turned out to be a bigger driver of cold in the East than the more talked about -NAO, as it pumped up a west coast ridge and a trough became locked in the East.  Last winter, that warm pool shrunk considerably--and a large area of cooler water appeared.  The west coast finally lost the ridge (and their drought), and we were mild.  Latest maps for June show mostly "normal" sea surface temperatures there.  I'm certainly no expert, but it might be important to watch what happens there between now and November/December. 


Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on August 18, 2017, 03:21:06 PM
JB's early prediction - colder than the last 2 winters but not as extreme as 14-15 or 13-14. Cold seems to be centered in the northern plains and looks to make intrusions into our area on several occasions with an early starts and coldest into January. Looks like a blocky pattern overall. November - February in TN- normal temps and above normal precip
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on August 19, 2017, 01:33:40 PM
JB's early prediction - colder than the last 2 winters but not as extreme as 14-15 or 13-14. Cold seems to be centered in the northern plains and looks to make intrusions into our area on several occasions with an early starts and coldest into January. Looks like a blocky pattern overall. November - February in TN- normal temps and above normal precip

Colder than last 2 winters is doable.   ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on August 19, 2017, 02:09:47 PM
Colder than last 2 winters is doable.   ::coffee::
which really isnt saying a whole lot.... ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on August 19, 2017, 03:12:46 PM
Colder than last 2 winters is doable.   ::coffee::

I thought his rationale was actually good this year. No hype but good basic facts. We have completely gone from models predicting a weak to moderate El Niño to now a potential weak La Niña or at least negative neutral. That usually pushes the cold air into the northern plains- should be easy access for our region for cold from time to time.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on August 19, 2017, 03:36:07 PM
I thought his rationale was actually good this year. No hype but good basic facts. We have completely gone from models predicting a weak to moderate El Niño to now a potential weak La Niña or at least negative neutral. That usually pushes the cold air into the northern plains- should be easy access for our region for cold from time to time.
yeah... i would be more concerned about ice this winter... be honest
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on August 20, 2017, 11:57:54 AM
I thought his rationale was actually good this year. No hype but good basic facts. We have completely gone from models predicting a weak to moderate El Niño to now a potential weak La Niña or at least negative neutral. That usually pushes the cold air into the northern plains- should be easy access for our region for cold from time to time.

Good points.  Anything would be an improvement since our Super Nino of two years ago, and last year's continued torching.  Having a cooler/wetter summer makes me optimistic that this winter will also at least be "normal," which puts a few Arctic outbreaks and snow chances on the table.  Also, you mentioned a "blocky" pattern from time to time, which has been sorely lacking in the last two winters.  All in all, I think we'll at least have more to track this time around. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on August 20, 2017, 04:37:52 PM
I thought his rationale was actually good this year. No hype but good basic facts. We have completely gone from models predicting a weak to moderate El Niño to now a potential weak La Niña or at least negative neutral. That usually pushes the cold air into the northern plains- should be easy access for our region for cold from time to time.
lot depends how strong the southeast ridge will get... more than not.. develops during any type nina....
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 21, 2017, 12:15:40 AM
lot depends how strong the southeast ridge will get... more than not.. develops during any type nina....
The SER is a big deal for Tn. A lot of times it is our friend on the west side but no so much for the rest of the state. The SER has a lot to do with the north of 40 deal. If it's a weak to neutral La Niña we could very well be in the battle zone.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on August 23, 2017, 06:52:47 PM
The SER is a big deal for Tn. A lot of times it is our friend on the west side but no so much for the rest of the state. The SER has a lot to do with the north of 40 deal. If it's a weak to neutral La Niña we could very well be in the battle zone.

A strong SER is a total buzz kill for anyone east of the Plateau.  A weak ridge can be a friend to all if a southern slider drops in and turns the corner in the right place. I think we had a few back in 09-10.  Of course, we also has some pretty strong episodes of a -NAO/AO back then, as well, if I recall.   

Good grief.  Why does that winter seem much more recent than 7 years ago??  Considering the next eclipse is 7 years away, I guess I better go ahead and book my hotel room.  It's closer than I thought.   
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: bugalou on August 25, 2017, 03:07:31 PM
yeah... i would be more concerned about ice this winter... be honest

I have said this for a few winters here in the Midsouth and it never panned out.  That said, Memphis and the immediate surrounding areas have not had a major freezing rain event in almost 25 years.  You have to go to Jonesboro or Dyersburg for evidence of a recent one.  The events that have happened in Memphis were largely WAA driven and therefore short lived.  A persistent, heavy event is going to happen again at some point. Ice storms are probably the most widespread impactful weather event the area here can have.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Cody on September 02, 2017, 05:05:09 PM
Bump


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Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on September 04, 2017, 10:09:02 AM
Does anyone foresee '17-'18 similar to '13-'14 and '14-'15?
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: StormNine on September 04, 2017, 01:19:07 PM
Does anyone foresee '17-'18 similar to '13-'14 and '14-'15?

With the potential for a weak La-Nina or cool neutral, I kinda see 17-18 to be more similar to 2000-01 or 2008-09, but a lot will depend on whether we can obtain ridging in or around the West Coast area like we had this summer and if we can finally get a wintertime -NAO or -AO.   
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Hunter_McDonald on September 04, 2017, 03:38:55 PM
Where do you all go to look at the history of these winter seasons?


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Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on September 04, 2017, 04:20:55 PM
Where do you all go to look at the history of these winter seasons?


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A lot of it is strictly from memory.  But for those of us in our 40's, memory isn't quite as reliable as it used to be.   ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Crockett on September 05, 2017, 12:14:47 AM
A lot of it is strictly from memory.  But for those of us in our 40's, memory isn't quite as reliable as it used to be.   ;)

You never forget the great ones! '93, '94 and '98 (the Big Three winter storms of my younger years) are etched in my memory forever. I didn't like the sheer devastation of the '98 dynamic cooling storm but what an awesome thing it was to experience.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on September 05, 2017, 06:28:50 AM
You never forget the great ones! '93, '94 and '98 (the Big Three winter storms of my younger years) are etched in my memory forever. I didn't like the sheer devastation of the '98 dynamic cooling storm but what an awesome thing it was to experience.

Very true.  I still lived in southeast KY in '98, and the 12-14 inches of very heavy, wet snow that fell during that snowstorm brought down as many pine trees as any ice storm could have.   Then there was the '93 Blizzard, followed up by an epic winter of 93-94.  Good, good times. 

Of course, 95-96 was an awesome winter as well, at least in Kentucky.   93-94 & 95-96 had to be the two top winters of the 90's for the Bluegrass state. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on September 05, 2017, 11:41:10 PM
With the potential for a weak La-Nina or cool neutral, I kinda see 17-18 to be more similar to 2000-01 or 2008-09, but a lot will depend on whether we can obtain ridging in or around the West Coast area like we had this summer and if we can finally get a wintertime -NAO or -AO.

I still had my pacifier in 2001, but I do remember the winter of 2008-2009 fairly well. Nashville got a surprise snowstorm in December and then another one to close out the winter in March of 2009. I also remember it being pretty cold that winter; our county delayed a school day due to below zero temps
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 05, 2017, 11:52:24 PM
**** I'm old  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on September 06, 2017, 04:35:18 AM
**** I'm old  ::rofl::
mean you werent using your pacifier in 2001 dyer...?  dont worry... i wasnt either :)... does look like the ridge starts to flatten out out west in the near future... bound to break down soon.... just in time for winter... watch ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on September 06, 2017, 06:03:36 AM
**** I'm old  ::rofl::

It's always better than the alternative.   ;D
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on September 17, 2017, 01:06:28 PM
Borrowed this from Chris Bailey's blog.  Euro snowfall from now through October.  As he said, if this pans out, we'll have a very healthy snowpack in Canada by Halloween.  Boo! ::evillaugh::

(http://kyweathercenter.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Euro-3-1.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on September 18, 2017, 11:47:22 AM
Montana to Iowa going be the sweet spot this winter.... affraid  the southeast ridge going flex its muscles this winter... .
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on September 18, 2017, 12:06:12 PM
Montana to Iowa going be the sweet spot this winter.... affraid  the southeast ridge going flex its muscles this winter... .
IF there's a SE ridge in a weak La Nina- that will probably be why we have an increased chance of winter weather here- think overrunning events and arctic air that makes a run southward- which it will.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on September 18, 2017, 12:18:05 PM
Considering we had a mega southeast ridge from the summer of 2016 through last winter/early spring, would make it somewhat less likely we'll see a repeat of a strong eastern ridge this winter.  The SR (Bermuda high) was almost a no-show this summer.  We are not in the same pattern as last winter. 
Title: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on September 18, 2017, 12:27:54 PM
I think he was referring to some comments on southern weather forum where the updated JMA showed a central US trough and overall milder SE. That's a definite Nina pattern. As long as it's not a strong La Niña, which most are not showing,  it's a really volatile pattern not unlike some of the analogs Stephen mentioned earlier. Best example is 84-85 where December was an unreal torch followed by 6 weeks of brutal winter. While I'm not banking on 6 weeks would not be surprised to see wild swings in weather in TN at least.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on September 18, 2017, 05:49:09 PM
While I'm not banking on 6 weeks would not be surprised to see wild swings in weather in TN at least.

I'll take it.  Wild swings, at least, aren't dullsville like last winter.  Heck, after last year, I'll take a winter like '14-'15 when there was no winter around here until mid-February, but that last two weeks of February more than made up for it.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on September 18, 2017, 11:56:45 PM
Wild swings can be a good thing in Tennessee. Weak SE ridge coupled with a weak Nina could spell overrunning event opportunities. Things could be looking a lot worse at this point, a long ways to go but I like the possibilities so far for some chances at winter weather at least. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on September 19, 2017, 04:18:48 AM
Wild swings can be a good thing in Tennessee. Weak SE ridge coupled with a weak Nina could spell overrunning event opportunities. Things could be looking a lot worse at this point, a long ways to go but I like the possibilities so far for some chances at winter weather at least. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
very true... wild swings can be a very good thing... ::twister::  what a big change in long range enso forecasting... just think.... not to long ago... we were looking at a weak nino this winter... not there is slightly better than a 50 50 chance were looking at a moderate  LA NINA... ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on September 19, 2017, 06:33:09 AM
very true... wild swings can be a very good thing... ::twister::  what a big change in long range enso forecasting... just think.... not to long ago... we were looking at a weak nino this winter... not there is slightly better than a 50 50 chance were looking at a moderate  LA NINA... ::coffee::


So far it's developing as an east based La Niña too- meaning increased chances of negative NAO. We will see how this thing develops.

Post Merge: September 19, 2017, 10:11:55 AM
Sept 17 JAMSTEC Winter Temp and Precip Forecast

(http://i66.tinypic.com/x5e7ba.gif)

(http://i63.tinypic.com/wiw6c.gif)

If that's what actually occurs, should be a weak La Nina with battle ground for warm/cold with ice and snow in the middle tier.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on September 19, 2017, 02:10:08 PM
I'll take anything after last winter. We had a week of frigid weather in early January followed by a torchfest.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: bugalou on September 20, 2017, 02:08:29 PM
I'll take anything after last winter. We had a week of frigid weather in early January followed by a torchfest.

Worth it for the summer we got.  I would make that trade most years.  Haven't been paying to close attention to things here for the 2012-15 winters as I was up north, but am I correct in assuming there have been no blockbusters in my absence? 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on September 20, 2017, 02:42:29 PM
Worth it for the summer we got.  I would make that trade most years.  Haven't been paying to close attention to things here for the 2012-15 winters as I was up north, but am I correct in assuming there have been no blockbusters in my absence?

No "blockbuster winters", per say, but several decent winters thrown in there.  At times eastern TN did well, at other times middle and west TN received some good snowfalls, and the eastern side and the plateau got ice.  The plateau was especially hard hit with an ice storm during one year.   

During the Super Nino, parts of western and middle TN got heavy snow, and our neighbors to the north in Kentucky were crushed with some huge snow totals.  Eastern TN missed out on that one for the most part. 

And others may think that there were some blockbuster winters during that time.  But my measuring stick for a blockbuster is '84-'85, so no--we didn't have a winter like that. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 20, 2017, 10:17:12 PM
IMBY we had some big events in that timeframe but no blockbusters over all. There were a couple years that a couple of degrees made the difference in so so and epic.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: bugalou on September 21, 2017, 10:09:35 AM
There were a couple years that a couple of degrees made the difference in so so and epic.
That is pretty much the story every year here in N. MS.  ::bangingheadintowall::
I still remember - I think it was 2011, maybe 2010 - when a storm dumped 6 inches here quickly overnight and then turned to light rain at sun up and then it drizzled and rained all day at 33 degrees.  I was so pissed that day I got in my truck and drove north to find the rain snow line.  I didn't have to go far - just in northern west Memphis,  less than 30 miles.

That is the way winters can go here though! Here's top hopinh 2017-18 is the 'big one'.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on September 21, 2017, 11:28:16 AM
That is pretty much the story every year here in N. MS.  ::bangingheadintowall::
I still remember - I think it was 2011, maybe 2010 - when a storm dumped 6 inches here quickly overnight and then turned to light rain at sun up and then it drizzled and rained all day at 33 degrees.  I was so pissed that day I got in my truck and drove north to find the rain snow line.  I didn't have to go far - just in northern west Memphis,  less than 30 miles.

That is the way winters can go here though! Here's top hopinh 2017-18 is the 'big one'.

lol temps in MN even make a difference. The difference there is they don't pout when it's rain.

You missed the "Shelby County Split Storm" of early March 2014. Talk about 2 different worlds- basically Narnia north and normal south.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: bugalou on September 21, 2017, 03:48:37 PM
Anyone from here going to take a stab at a forecast?  Haven't seen anyone mention it.  I have been out of the loop with the various global signals for the past couple months between my work and all the hurricanes to follow so I am not going to bother doing one this year.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mamMATTus on September 22, 2017, 06:54:37 AM
Has anyone been counting the number of fogs? I know at least here in middle TN we've had a bunch lately.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: cgauxknox on September 22, 2017, 07:43:15 AM
Has anyone been counting the number of fogs? I know at least here in middle TN we've had a bunch lately.
There do seem to be more than usual and some of them have been really heavy in Knoxville.  I was out on Fort Loudon Lake early Sunday and the fog was so bad we could barely move.  Combine virtually no visibility with lots of debris in the water and it was impossible to get anywhere until the weather lifted around 9:30.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on September 22, 2017, 09:09:35 AM
There do seem to be more than usual and some of them have been really heavy in Knoxville.  I was out on Fort Loudon Lake early Sunday and the fog was so bad we could barely move.  Combine virtually no visibility with lots of debris in the water and it was impossible to get anywhere until the weather lifted around 9:30.
that's fogs that are in August you count..... grandma always told me that...
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Crockett on September 22, 2017, 01:32:20 PM
that's fogs that are in August you count..... grandma always told me that...

I'm pretty sure that correlating September fogs to winter snows is just as accurate as correlating August fogs to winter snows.  ;D
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: cgauxknox on September 22, 2017, 03:05:33 PM
I'm pretty sure that correlating September fogs to winter snows is just as accurate as correlating August fogs to winter snows.  ;D
But...woolly worms and acorns....  ::rofl::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on September 22, 2017, 03:06:53 PM
I prefer the woolly worm method of winter forecasting.  It's the only way to go!   :)

http://www.woollyworm.com/ (http://www.woollyworm.com/)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on September 22, 2017, 05:34:22 PM
I straddle the Old Farmer's Almanac and Accuweather for winter forecasts. Very accurate method!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on September 23, 2017, 03:00:25 PM
If you have weatherbell premium Joe D'Aleo has a great analog video for the upcoming winter. He compared depths and  pacific sea basin temps for La Niña winters that look most similar as of September as a guide- and we know that don't always work out perfectly. The 2 he felt were most similar to our upcoming winter were 2007-08 and 1995-96. Both had quite a bit of cold weather and winter storm opportunities- albeit the only real winter storm we had here in 2008 was in March. Nonetheless - interesting video.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Jilly on September 25, 2017, 11:05:19 AM
I prefer the woolly worm method of winter forecasting.  It's the only way to go!   :)

http://www.woollyworm.com/ (http://www.woollyworm.com/)

The wooly worms I've seen here lately have been mostly black.  ::cold::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on September 25, 2017, 11:32:02 AM
If you have weatherbell premium Joe D'Aleo has a great analog video for the upcoming winter. He compared depths and  pacific sea basin temps for La Niña winters that look most similar as of September as a guide- and we know that don't always work out perfectly. The 2 he felt were most similar to our upcoming winter were 2007-08 and 1995-96. Both had quite a bit of cold weather and winter storm opportunities- albeit the only real winter storm we had here in 2008 was in March. Nonetheless - interesting video.
I take a winter 2007 2008 re do again ... if possible
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on September 26, 2017, 08:57:11 AM
The AO is in moderately negative territory, while we have record heat.  Hope it revisits negative land again this winter when we need it. 

(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on September 26, 2017, 06:18:27 PM
i know its very very early... but thus far... winter 1984-1985 ... this is how it all started... we torch pretty much like were doing till end december... then rest is history... ::cold:: looking long range stuff... after this cool down back to torch again... so lets hope we do torch like we did that winter... cause if you like winter... ones that are old enough to remember that winter... your are in for one h--l of a ride ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on September 26, 2017, 07:47:06 PM
i know its very very early... but thus far... winter 1984-1985 ... this is how it all started... we torch pretty much like were doing till end december... then rest is history... ::cold:: looking long range stuff... after this cool down back to torch again... so lets hope we do torch like we did that winter... cause if you like winter... ones that are old enough to remember that winter... your are in for one h--l of a ride ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::fingerscrossed::

My dad recalls the temperature dropping to -27 degrees Fahrenheit in Knoxville in January 1985. He said Knoxville recorded one of the coldest temperatures in the continental United States that day. As for me, I'm 20, so I cannot confirm that being true or not  ::shrug::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: skillsweather on September 26, 2017, 08:44:51 PM
What i like about weather (but sometimes it also frustrates me) is that we truely dont ever know whats going to happen. We have very educated guess's and statistics to point us in directions of what might and most likely will happen but it can always change in a blink of an eye just by one small detail changing. And with longer ranged forecast like a season over that even becomes more difficult and one small change in a detail can completely change the forecast. It seems we get what we can get and the most fun (for me anyways) is following the systems when they are happening because then the margin of error is much smaller and we know its happening (but even then one detail can change it all). It seems like every winter we always have at least one storm to follow that either gives some of us a decent hit or all of us or comes in as a major hit and the temp turns out to be to warm or to much dry air. So i think its safe to say no matter what the models or long range forecasters say, that we will at least have one decent storm to at least track. Im looking forward to it for sure!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: snowdog on September 26, 2017, 11:16:19 PM
i know its very very early... but thus far... winter 1984-1985 ... this is how it all started... we torch pretty much like were doing till end december... then rest is history... ::cold:: looking long range stuff... after this cool down back to torch again... so lets hope we do torch like we did that winter... cause if you like winter... ones that are old enough to remember that winter... your are in for one h--l of a ride ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::fingerscrossed::

I think Joe Bastardi hacked Bruce's account.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on September 27, 2017, 12:30:14 AM
i know its very very early... but thus far... winter 1984-1985 ... this is how it all started... we torch pretty much like were doing till end december... then rest is history... ::cold:: looking long range stuff... after this cool down back to torch again... so lets hope we do torch like we did that winter... cause if you like winter... ones that are old enough to remember that winter... your are in for one h--l of a ride ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::fingerscrossed::
I remember it like it was yesterday, I long for a repeat in my lifetime. Only rivals to 85 in my lifetime are 76 and 78. My first snow I ever remember well is 69, it fell on Christmas eve and we received 10 inches in Clarksville. I think that snow is what hooked me. I heard many good stories of winters in the 60's but I was too young to really remember much about them. ::popcorn:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on September 27, 2017, 06:19:14 AM
If memory serves, '84 had some pretty good cold snaps in November into the first week of December, when accumulating snow fell in Kentucky.  After that, the eastern U.S. torched until the first week of January '85, when the Arctic Express rolled back into town and stayed in earnest until mid-February.  That was the best 6 weeks of pure Winter Wonderland any snow lovin' weather geek could experience this far south.

Post Merge: September 27, 2017, 09:05:08 AM
Despite the record heat in our part of the world, patches of snow cover are starting to show up in other parts of the Northern Hemisphere as cold air makes an appearance in Asia thanks to the -AO. 

(http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_v3/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/NHem/2017/ims2017269.gif)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: mempho on October 07, 2017, 08:36:41 PM
Anyone from here going to take a stab at a forecast?  Haven't seen anyone mention it.  I have been out of the loop with the various global signals for the past couple months between my work and all the hurricanes to follow so I am not going to bother doing one this year.
Sure-  I'm going with 46" for seasonal snowfall in Memphis

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 08, 2017, 11:59:31 AM
here's what we know so far-

ENSO= most likely weak La Niña
QBO= moderately negative - complete change from last winters positive
Solar cycle- low

I think this combo promotes a highly variable winter here. The long range models center the coldest air in the northern plains- typical of La Niña. In combination with the moderately negative QBO should produce periods of northern blocking- which we couldn't buy the last 2 winters. I think we could actually see some potentially bitter cold periods followed by moderating periods in between- thus what I think will be a variable winter. If you add in a major SSW like January 1985- all bets are off for more prolonged cold. I think we see 2-3 winter threats this go around - perhaps more on the icy side.

Winter 1950-51 was very similar as far as a second La Niña winter following an albeit much weaker El Niño. Overall the winter was slightly above normal but had 2 major winter storms for Tennessee(and one minor). One was the great Appalachian November snow storm which blanketed the entire state with snow in late November followed by record cold. It remained cold into early December with one more sleet and snow event before warming back up all the way thorough January. In fact it was into the 60's and 70's for much of January before one of the most epic winter storms on state history occurred in late January and early February. An arctic air mass bled south and stalled over the apps- leaving major amounts of sleet and snow mostly over west and middle TN. Memphis and Nashville went down below -10 to end the event. There was one more cold period in mid march with 2 more snows statewide- one producing 7 inches at Nashville.

And keep in mind- October and early November 1950 torched before the variability started.

So all that in mind- we could end up normal or even above normal temps with quite a bit of variability in between.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 08, 2017, 03:22:41 PM
What worries me is that the cold spells in the eastern U.S. during the recent "good" winters (09-10, 13-14, 14-15) could just be flukes. While we were colder during those winters, much of the rest of the world was experiencing above normal temperatures.  It appears we were colder only because of the anomalous trough over our area caused by a warm pool of water off of northwestern North America for much of that time.  Is that the only way we can have a "normal" winter anymore? 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: snowdog on October 08, 2017, 09:23:20 PM
here's what we know so far-

ENSO= most likely weak La Niña
QBO= moderately negative - complete change from last winters positive
Solar cycle- low

I think this combo promotes a highly variable winter here. The long range models center the coldest air in the northern plains- typical of La Niña. In combination with the moderately negative QBO should produce periods of northern blocking- which we couldn't buy the last 2 winters. I think we could actually see some potentially bitter cold periods followed by moderating periods in between- thus what I think will be a variable winter. If you add in a major SSW like January 1985- all bets are off for more prolonged cold. I think we see 2-3 winter threats this go around - perhaps more on the icy side.

Winter 1950-51 was very similar as far as a second La Niña winter following an albeit much weaker El Niño. Overall the winter was slightly above normal but had 2 major winter storms for Tennessee(and one minor). One was the great Appalachian November snow storm which blanketed the entire state with snow in late November followed by record cold. It remained cold into early December with one more sleet and snow event before warming back up all the way thorough January. In fact it was into the 60's and 70's for much of January before one of the most epic winter storms on state history occurred in late January and early February. An arctic air mass bled south and stalled over the apps- leaving major amounts of sleet and snow mostly over west and middle TN. Memphis and Nashville went down below -10 to end the event. There was one more cold period in mid march with 2 more snows statewide- one producing 7 inches at Nashville.

And keep in mind- October and early November 1950 torched before the variability started.

So all that in mind- we could end up normal or even above normal temps with quite a bit of variability in between.

Nice write up Curt, enjoyed the read.  ::guitar::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on October 09, 2017, 06:40:08 AM
here's what we know so far-

ENSO= most likely weak La Niña
QBO= moderately negative - complete change from last winters positive
Solar cycle- low

I think this combo promotes a highly variable winter here. The long range models center the coldest air in the northern plains- typical of La Niña. In combination with the moderately negative QBO should produce periods of northern blocking- which we couldn't buy the last 2 winters. I think we could actually see some potentially bitter cold periods followed by moderating periods in between- thus what I think will be a variable winter. If you add in a major SSW like January 1985- all bets are off for more prolonged cold. I think we see 2-3 winter threats this go around - perhaps more on the icy side.

Winter 1950-51 was very similar as far as a second La Niña winter following an albeit much weaker El Niño. Overall the winter was slightly above normal but had 2 major winter storms for Tennessee(and one minor). One was the great Appalachian November snow storm which blanketed the entire state with snow in late November followed by record cold. It remained cold into early December with one more sleet and snow event before warming back up all the way thorough January. In fact it was into the 60's and 70's for much of January before one of the most epic winter storms on state history occurred in late January and early February. An arctic air mass bled south and stalled over the apps- leaving major amounts of sleet and snow mostly over west and middle TN. Memphis and Nashville went down below -10 to end the event. There was one more cold period in mid march with 2 more snows statewide- one producing 7 inches at Nashville.

And keep in mind- October and early November 1950 torched before the variability started.

So all that in mind- we could end up normal or even above normal temps with quite a bit of variability in between.

I can ask my 90-y-o grandmother to this day about the winter of '51 and get a day by day retelling of the events. She also always talked about a Thanksgiving when it was mild out and then suddenly a cold wind blew in, and they had several inches of snow. I've figured out this was the Great Apps Storm of '50. But, the ice storm/blizzard of '51 is especially vivid for her.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on October 09, 2017, 08:29:06 AM
Any analog used beyond year 1885. Can be missleading.... due to climate change unfortunately....
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Crockett on October 09, 2017, 08:36:22 AM
Any analog used beyond year 1885. Can be missleading.... due to climate change unfortunately....

No.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 09, 2017, 08:54:12 AM
Any analog used beyond year 1885. Can be missleading.... due to climate change unfortunately....

1885? Lol

NOAA already accounts for climate change in their 30 year normal adjustments. Can you elaborate on rationale for 1985 being the basis and how would you compensate for climate change for a forecast? Respected Long range mets use lots of pre 1985 analogs to make a forecast by looking at SST’s in the pacific and Atlantic.

Post Merge: October 09, 2017, 11:13:58 AM
What worries me is that the cold spells in the eastern U.S. during the recent "good" winters (09-10, 13-14, 14-15) could just be flukes. While we were colder during those winters, much of the rest of the world was experiencing above normal temperatures.  It appears we were colder only because of the anomalous trough over our area caused by a warm pool of water off of northwestern North America for much of that time.  Is that the only way we can have a "normal" winter anymore?

I think what your referring to is the PDO (pacific decadonal oscillation). the positive PDO phase usually means a "warm blob" over the Northeast Pacific basin. All of the winters you mentioned did in fact have a positive PDO phase. I can also find tons of cold winters in TN where there was a negative PDO including 50-51, and the brutal winter of 17-18. I think the PDO will be fairly neutral this year.

PDO and QBO can fluctuate- but they are both overall trends and tend to stay in one phase for quite some time. A strong ENSO phase can totally overwhelm all other factors- including PDO and QBO- as it did in 2015-16. IMO- it takes awhile for climate to re adjust from something that large. There was a global spike in temps but now they're coming back down.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on October 09, 2017, 11:31:39 AM
Just like I said . Some are in denial....
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 09, 2017, 11:36:04 AM
Just like I said . Some are in denial....

I’ve never denied climate change. That’s proven over and over.

Global warming is what I think you’re argument is based on and is a separate subject matter altogether. I was asking how did you choose 1985 as a basis and also- if you believe in global warming- how would you scientifically account for it in choosing an analog?
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 09, 2017, 11:59:16 AM

Post Merge: October 09, 2017, 11:13:58 AM
I think what your referring to is the PDO (pacific decadonal oscillation). the positive PDO phase usually means a "warm blob" over the Northeast Pacific basin. All of the winters you mentioned did in fact have a positive PDO phase. I can also find tons of cold winters in TN where there was a negative PDO including 50-51, and the brutal winter of 17-18. I think the PDO will be fairly neutral this year.

PDO and QBO can fluctuate- but they are both overall trends and tend to stay in one phase for quite some time. A strong ENSO phase can totally overwhelm all other factors- including PDO and QBO- as it did in 2015-16. IMO- it takes awhile for climate to re adjust from something that large. There was a global spike in temps but now they're coming back down.

Thanks for the info!  I'm not well versed on the other oceanic phases out there.  Glad there are other factors that can influence our winter besides the "blob."  ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 09, 2017, 12:43:58 PM
The climate is always changing and always has been. As far as global warming I don't buy it all. I look back at old record high and low temps and it is obvious that there have always been high and low swings in temp and weather. Nothing changes like the weather, stick around long enough and you will see plenty. I am certainly no expert and don't know as much as many on this board but I don't buy global warming at all. There have always been periods of warming and cooling. The world will end when God wants it too not because of some global warming. JMHO! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 09, 2017, 02:57:34 PM
(http://i64.tinypic.com/2vkcojm.png)

Courtesy of WeatherBell- this is a great graphic showing the difference between west based and east based La Nina. This will be an east based year.


(http://i66.tinypic.com/10znzfc.png)
Courtesy of WeatherBell, this is another great graphic when you add the east or west based QBO- positive and negative with low solar activity. The bottom left was basically last winter. This winter should look more like the top left.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 09, 2017, 03:19:43 PM
I'll leave the global warming debate on the shelf, and whether its man-made or not.  Arguments on both sides have merit, and I'll leave it at that.

What has happened in my lifetime is a definite warm "spell."  Growing up in the 80's, it wasn't too unusual to have temperatures plunging well below zero during winter. There were at least 4 years in that decade that had Arctic outbreaks of that caliber. It happened a few times in the 90's ('94 &'96), but outside of those winters, most in the 90's were mild to outright warm.  From 2000-2008 the mild to warm winters continued, except for 2003 that saw some "decent" cold weather.  After the recent few winters that began to show promise, and even one that saw a return to below zero temperatures (something that shouldn't be so infrequent --> http://www.weather.gov/jkl/2013warmwinterstreak (http://www.weather.gov/jkl/2013warmwinterstreak)), I was hoping that maybe a pattern change had taken place.  But the Super Nino of two years ago seems to have thrown a wrench into that, as we've been mostly above normal every month since (save for this past summer.)  I guess a lot hinges on the upcoming winter.  If its another torch-fest of well-above normal temperatures, then perhaps the recent colder winters were a fluke in an overall warm spell that has been continuing for over two decades now.  Graph below illustrates this well:

(http://www.weather.gov/images/jkl/Headline_Images/2013/2013MinTLOZ.jpg)
Title: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 09, 2017, 09:17:02 PM
I'll leave the global warming debate on the shelf, and whether its man-made or not.  Arguments on both sides have merit, and I'll leave it at that.

What has happened in my lifetime is a definite warm "spell."  Growing up in the 80's, it wasn't too unusual to have temperatures plunging well below zero during winter. There were at least 4 years in that decade that had Arctic outbreaks of that caliber. It happened a few times in the 90's ('94 &'96), but outside of those winters, most in the 90's were mild to outright warm.  From 2000-2008 the mild to warm winters continued, except for 2003 that saw some "decent" cold weather.  After the recent few winters that began to show promise, and even one that saw a return to below zero temperatures (something that shouldn't be so infrequent --> http://www.weather.gov/jkl/2013warmwinterstreak (http://www.weather.gov/jkl/2013warmwinterstreak)), I was hoping that maybe a pattern change had taken place.  But the Super Nino of two years ago seems to have thrown a wrench into that, as we've been mostly above normal every month since (save for this past summer.)  I guess a lot hinges on the upcoming winter.  If its another torch-fest of well-above normal temperatures, then perhaps the recent colder winters were a fluke in an overall warm spell that has been continuing for over two decades now.  Graph below illustrates this well:

(http://www.weather.gov/images/jkl/Headline_Images/2013/2013MinTLOZ.jpg)

I won’t go into the global warming debate either since it’s politicized

Another piece of the puzzle is the North Atlantic SST, called the AMO or Atlantic Multidecadanol Oscillation. I’m no expert but the warm phase is associated with warmer eastern winters and vice versa with the colder phase. The colder phases have a marked increase in arctic sea ice- which I’m going to assume increases surface area for arctic air masses. Here a good graphic:

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171010/c41fc604442491fc9248c6117fc4d09b.png)

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171010/0a49f1608455d39368fd912d0c8e1b0f.png)

You can trace the long colder and thus snowier winters of the 60’s, 70’s, and 80’s in a cold phase. We’ve been in a warm phase since 1996 - and most models flip it negative over the next 3-5 years. Perhaps there’s part of your answer although there have certainly been severe winters in the warm phase- just not as many as the cold.

Final thought here- one size doesn’t fit all. Sometimes it seems one of the players- enso, qbo, pdo, and amo don’t work out like we think due to one having prevalence over another. It’s not an exact science- but one we can at least make some assumptions about given past experience.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 09, 2017, 10:27:39 PM
Some very good stuff Curt. You bring up some important factors imo. I like the east based QBO and I think the AMO is a really really big deal when it comes to winter weather.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 10, 2017, 07:49:22 AM
Appreciate the insight Curt!  I'll have to ask questions more often.   ::guitar::

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 10, 2017, 07:57:30 AM
Some very good stuff Curt. You bring up some important factors imo. I like the east based QBO and I think the AMO is a really really big deal when it comes to winter weather.
I concur great reads.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 11, 2017, 08:03:40 AM
After studying Curt's graphs further, it appears the Ohio and TN Valleys are in the battle zone between the colder north and the mild southeast with an east based La Nina.  One benefit of that will be plenty of precipitation, unlike the west-based La Nina that would probably bring a dry winter (like 2007), so that's a good thing.  As far as winter weather goes, I'd say Kentucky, and parts of northern and far western Tennessee would be in the best position, but this set-up screams "ICE" to me with many over-running events.  If that's they case, I hope it stays to our north.  I'll take plain-Jane rain over ice any day.

Thanks again for posting the good reads for the upcoming winter possibilities, Curt.  I've been doing some reading up on the QBO, AMO, and some of the lesser know acronyms out there.  It gave me something to do while at home recovering from a wicked cold.  Nothing on TV but more political ::poo::   ;D
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Charles L. on October 11, 2017, 08:13:10 AM
Normally the OH and TN valleys are the battleground zone for winter mischief. Hopefully we get more cold air intrustions this time around!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 11, 2017, 09:18:55 AM
Normally the OH and TN valleys are the battleground zone for winter mischief. Hopefully we get more cold air intrustions this time around!

I'm normally a peaceful dude, but this is one war I'm pullin' for!!   ::evillaugh::

(http://study.com/cimages/multimages/16/weatherfronts.jpg)

Sorry, I'm a little buzzed from the Nyquil.  Dang cold!   ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on October 11, 2017, 10:51:51 AM
I'm normally a peaceful dude, but this is one war I'm pullin' for!!   ::evillaugh::

(http://study.com/cimages/multimages/16/weatherfronts.jpg)

Sorry, I'm a little buzzed from the Nyquil.  Dang cold!   ;)

Whoever made that map could have at least used realistic looking frontal boundaries (just sort of slapped them on there).  ;)

That would be one weird looking weather map. A backwards bulging cold front (which would seem to imply a westward movement), with a large warm front coming out of the Rockies, stretching from Canada to nearly Mexico seem to be heading toward each other.

Something like this might happen if the earth fell off its axis... or something.  8)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 11, 2017, 11:15:19 AM
After studying Curt's graphs further, it appears the Ohio and TN Valleys are in the battle zone between the colder north and the mild southeast with an east based La Nina.  One benefit of that will be plenty of precipitation, unlike the west-based La Nina that would probably bring a dry winter (like 2007), so that's a good thing.  As far as winter weather goes, I'd say Kentucky, and parts of northern and far western Tennessee would be in the best position, but this set-up screams "ICE" to me with many over-running events.  If that's they case, I hope it stays to our north.  I'll take plain-Jane rain over ice any day.

Thanks again for posting the good reads for the upcoming winter possibilities, Curt.  I've been doing some reading up on the QBO, AMO, and some of the lesser know acronyms out there.  It gave me something to do while at home recovering from a wicked cold.  Nothing on TV but more political ::poo::   ;D
I really think if things fall in place that this could be one of those years where the term north of 40 came from. I agree with the battleground. Question is where will it set up .
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 11, 2017, 11:24:29 AM
Whoever made that map could have at least used realistic looking frontal boundaries (just sort of slapped them on there).  ;)

That would be one weird looking weather map. A backwards bulging cold front (which would seem to imply a westward movement), with a large warm front coming out of the Rockies, stretching from Canada to nearly Mexico seem to be heading toward each other.

Something like this might happen if the earth fell off its axis... or something.  8)

LOL!  I promise, even with my Nyquil, I didn't make that map!  ::rofl::  It did appear to be two "battle fronts" going to war, so appropriate, though impossible! haha ;D  Reminds me of my high school days back in study hall.  I usually doodled my time away drawing some mega snow storm...cold front, warm front, and the occluded front of a mature blizzard.  Most people didn't have a clue what I was doodling. lol

Despite the intense cold I'm struggling with, I'm enjoying time on the deck watching the leaves fall all around me.  Very relaxing and peaceful.  Guess it ain't all bad.  Feeling blessed.  ::cough::

(https://tse2.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.lg6vuY_9TIcfDO49gnKoBgEsCo&w=300&h=168&c=7&qlt=90&o=4&pid=1.7)

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 11, 2017, 06:32:01 PM
I really think if things fall in place that this could be one of those years where the term north of 40 came from. I agree with the battleground. Question is where will it set up .
That will mean many late nights and early mornings on this forum sweating it out. OH YEAH BRING IT ON!!!!! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on October 11, 2017, 06:55:09 PM
That will mean many late nights and early mornings on this forum sweating it out. OH YEAH BRING IT ON!!!!! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
make a big difference were things set up at... snow storm... ice storm... or even a severe weather event... ::coffee::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 12, 2017, 10:11:14 AM
make a big difference were things set up at... snow storm... ice storm... or even a severe weather event... ::coffee::
I'm fully aware of that.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: snowdog on October 12, 2017, 01:15:08 PM
Another piece of the puzzle is the North Atlantic SST, called the AMO or Atlantic Multidecadanol Oscillation. I’m no expert but the warm phase is associated with warmer eastern winters and vice versa with the colder phase. The colder phases have a marked increase in arctic sea ice- which I’m going to assume increases surface area for arctic air masses. Here a good graphic:

You can trace the long colder and thus snowier winters of the 60’s, 70’s, and 80’s in a cold phase. We’ve been in a warm phase since 1996 - and most models flip it negative over the next 3-5 years. Perhaps there’s part of your answer although there have certainly been severe winters in the warm phase- just not as many as the cold.

Final thought here- one size doesn’t fit all. Sometimes it seems one of the players- enso, qbo, pdo, and amo don’t work out like we think due to one having prevalence over another. It’s not an exact science- but one we can at least make some assumptions about given past experience.

Is there any way to tease out outcomes by differentiating between a warmer than average fall or a cooler than average fall? Looks like this fall is going to be quite warm.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Thundersnow on October 12, 2017, 01:40:31 PM
Is there any way to tease out outcomes by differentiating between a warmer than average fall or a cooler than average fall? Looks like this fall is going to be quite warm.

Would be interesting to see if so. Anecdotally, I can remember some cold winters that followed mild falls, and conversely, mild winters that followed colder-than-average falls. I suspect findings might be inconclusive overall though.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 12, 2017, 03:26:07 PM
I don't know about Autumn as a whole, but I've observed many a cold November be followed up by a cold winter.  Was it in 2013 that we had several cold snaps in November, and even snow around Thanksgiving in the area?  That winter ended up cold ('13-'14).  Sometimes a cold November is followed by a mild December, then a return to cold in January.  That happened in '84-'85.  November was cold, we torched in December, but we all know how that winter turned out.

Just a thought.  I'm sure there are many exceptions, but a cold November can be a prelude for a cold winter.  Of course, we had a very warm November last year, and as we know, winter skipped us altogether. 

EDIT:  I just found this on a NWS site concerning November 2013: 

Quote
Below-average temperatures were present for a majority of the contiguous U.S. east of the Rockies. Above-average temperatures were present for the Southwest, as well as Florida. No state had November temperatures ranking among the ten warmest or coolest.

Here is where the quote came from: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201311 (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201311)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 12, 2017, 03:53:42 PM
Would be interesting to see if so. Anecdotally, I can remember some cold winters that followed mild falls, and conversely, mild winters that followed colder-than-average falls. I suspect findings might be inconclusive overall though.

Here are a few October/ November temps for analog years- all La Nina Winters which all followed with some significant cold/winter weather at some point.

October 1950
Memphis +5.3
Nashville  +3.9
Knoxville +3.7

November 1950
Memphis -3.8
Nashville -6.5
Knoxville  -3.8

December 1950
Memphis -5.0
Nashville -6.0
Knoxville  -4.6

January 1951
Memphis 3.0
Nashville 1.2
Knoxville 3.2

Feb 1951- above normal despite epic ice and snow storm at beginning and below 0 temps
Memphis 1.1
Nashville 0.1
Knoxville 2.3

October 1984
Memphis +5.5
Nashville  +6.5
Knoxville  +8.1

November 1984
Memphis -0.4
Nashville  -2.5
Knoxville  -2.5

December 1984
Memphis +10.5
Nashville  + 8.6
Knoxville  +6.4

January 1985
Memphis -7.2
Nashville  - 9.3
Knoxville  -8.8

February 1985
Memphis -2.9
Nashville  -3.3
Knoxville  -4.4



October 2010
Memphis +2.5
Nashville  +1.2
Knoxville  +1.2

November 2010
Memphis +1.2
Nashville  +1.2
Knoxville  +2.0

December 2010
Memphis -4.2
Nashville  -6.1
Knoxville  -7.8

January 2011
Memphis -1.0
Nashville  -2.4
Knoxville  -1.6

February 2011
Memphis +2.3
Nashville  +2.4
Knoxville  +4.4


Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: snowdog on October 12, 2017, 04:43:14 PM
Interesting how both 50 and 84 flipped the pattern from Oct to Nov.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 12, 2017, 05:18:35 PM
Interesting how both 50 and 84 flipped the pattern from Oct to Nov.

Went back and added Dec-Jan-Feb of those years to the stats which shows lots of variability- in some cases Dec 84- Jan 85 was incredibly volatile.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 12, 2017, 05:35:09 PM
Went back and added Dec-Jan-Feb of those years to the stats which shows lots of variability- in some cases Dec 84- Jan 85 was incredibly volatile.

You are very correct.  I lived in southeast KY during that time, and I remember late November into the first few days of December being cold, with several inches of snow in early December.  The rest of December was spring-like with 60's and 70's.  The last week of December, severe storms and flooding rains occurred, and the stormy weather lasted into the New Year.  That bout of heavy rain and severe weather was the turning point toward much colder weather that lasted into February.

Not even counting the epic cold & snow, weather that fall into winter was incredibly volatile.  Wild swings in temperatures, heavy rain, severe storms and flooding occurred in December.  I'll take a winter like that.  I don't mind a torch for a few days if it's followed up by a 30 degree temperature drop and snow.  I remember that happening on more than one occasion that winter.

I found an interesting comment about the '85 cold wave on Wikipedia:
Quote
The Winter 1985 cold wave[1] was a meteorological event, the result of the shifting of the polar vortex further south than is normally seen.[1] Blocked from its normal movement, polar air from the north pushed into nearly every section of the eastern half of the United States and Canada, shattering record lows in a number of areas.[1] The event was preceded by unusually warm weather in the eastern U.S. in December 1984, suggesting that there was a build-up of cold air that was suddenly released from the Arctic, a meteorological event known as a Mobile Polar High, a weather process identified by Professor Marcel Leroux.[2]

Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on October 12, 2017, 06:17:00 PM
Went back and added Dec-Jan-Feb of those years to the stats which shows lots of variability- in some cases Dec 84- Jan 85 was incredibly volatile.
yeah... december 31st 1984  newyears eve night... we had a severe outbreak... tornado warnings in area... that was the big system that actually changed the pattern to a brutal winter....
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 12, 2017, 09:10:14 PM
yeah... december 31st 1984  newyears eve night... we had a severe outbreak... tornado warnings in area... that was the big system that actually changed the pattern to a brutal winter....

There was actually a strat  warming event that eventually coincided with the entire polar vortex coming down mid month. The entire state was below 0 and Knoxville went to -24. Even after the cold continued until mid February. After that it warmed up and we never went below 32 again.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 12, 2017, 09:14:37 PM
yeah... december 31st 1984  newyears eve night... we had a severe outbreak... tornado warnings in area... that was the big system that actually changed the pattern to a brutal winter....

There was actually a strat  warming event that eventually coincided with the entire polar vortex coming down mid month. The entire state was below 0 and Knoxville went to -24. Even after the cold continued until mid February. After that it warmed up and we never went below 32 again.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 13, 2017, 12:13:58 AM
There was actually a strat  warming event that eventually coincided with the entire polar vortex coming down mid month. The entire state was below 0 and Knoxville went to -24. Even after the cold continued until mid February. After that it warmed up and we never went below 32 again.
I remember the set up well. I remember the severe weather out in front of it. I was 20 years old and man that was a great beer drinking sled riding winter. I remember being on Riverside Dr. in downtown Clarksville with a friend in his 4 wheel drive. We had about 8 inches of snow on the ground and it was snowing quarter size flakes. There was nobody out in Clarksville, not another vehicle on the road. We stopped in the middle of town and got out and walked around in the middle of the intersection in downtown Clarksville. It was so quiet, no tracks on the road but ours. It was kind of a surreal moment, I wish we would have had a camera for pictures. We were there 15 minutes and it was like we were the only ones in Clarksville. I will never forget that winter. LOL!!!!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 13, 2017, 07:15:00 AM
Being as it was in the mid 1980's, there were multiple surprise events that winter as well.  I remember one in particular during the big cold wave event in January.  The Arctic front bringing the bitter cold air was originally forecast to only have an inch or two of snow accompany it.  However, late in the afternoon a low pressure developed along the front in Oklahoma, causing the front to slow and moisture to overrun the boundary.  We ended up with 6 inches of snow, and thanks to the cold and more snow to follow, we had snow on the ground for nearly 3 weeks straight.  Longest I've personally ever seen that happen.

I don't mean to drone on and on about '85.  Guess this ole fella can't help but wax nostalgic when thinking about it. 

Post Merge: October 13, 2017, 07:40:30 AM
On a different note--snow cover has rapidly increased in parts of Asia, and has also begun to spread over parts of northern North America. 

(http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_v3/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/NHem/2017/ims2017285.gif)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 13, 2017, 09:31:05 AM
The rain and storms around New Years of 85 had the backwater out. We were duck hunting the morning of the first big snow. It snowed about 6 inches and temps crashed. The snow created 6 inches of slush on the water and it froze as the day went on. That boat ride took forever to get back to the truck. Lots of ducks died in the making of this story.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 16, 2017, 09:19:26 AM
(http://i68.tinypic.com/i3rwh2.gif)

Latest CFS2 precip forecast for winter
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 16, 2017, 09:59:43 AM
(http://i68.tinypic.com/i3rwh2.gif)

Latest CFS2 precip forecast for winter

That is good news.  I was concerned about drought with La Nina making an appearance.  Furthermore, can't have snow without moisture. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on October 16, 2017, 11:47:24 AM
(http://i68.tinypic.com/i3rwh2.gif)

Latest CFS2 precip forecast for winter
too bad it's showing temps above normal ... guess we can't have both
..
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: snowdog on October 16, 2017, 12:47:01 PM
too bad it's showing temps above normal ... guess we can't have both
..

(https://i.imgflip.com/xxbgd.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 16, 2017, 02:35:33 PM
too bad it's showing temps above normal ... guess we can't have both
..
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171016/545382f4878c2891952587c7655b608b.png)

There’s the CFS2 temps- that’s not a torch by any means especially given warm bias. Should be the potential for some cold outbreaks in this scenario.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Curt on October 16, 2017, 02:40:08 PM
Looks a lot better than what the CFS2 did at this point in 13-14 and 14-15.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171016/53dbe37c2dfc3b189266f2bfe11f6426.png)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 16, 2017, 04:26:43 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171016/545382f4878c2891952587c7655b608b.png)

There’s the CFS2 temps- that’s not a torch by any means especially given warm bias. Should be the potential for some cold outbreaks in this scenario.

That's for sure with the well-below normal temperatures lurking just over the U.S.-Canadian border.  Lots of potential there with any amount of Greenland blocking.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 17, 2017, 05:45:37 PM
I hope against hope that we have a good Winter, and it starts SOON

Between the Big Orange football season, and the continued political circus that never ends, I need a distraction.  There is no drink strong enough to help at this point. . .   ::cliff::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 17, 2017, 07:15:59 PM
I hope against hope that we have a good Winter, and it starts SOON

Between the Big Orange football season, and the continued political circus that never ends, I need a distraction.  There is no drink strong enough to help at this point. . .   ::cliff::
Sure there is.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on October 17, 2017, 09:04:08 PM
Sure there is.

We shall show him the way lol


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Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 17, 2017, 09:05:05 PM
Sure there is.

Maybe. . .

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gIQRsLWd1w4/T6U7obTrrNI/AAAAAAAAJwE/l86U36Wgi54/s1600/Top+5+Strongest+Alcoholic+Drinks+in+the+World+everclear.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on October 17, 2017, 09:07:18 PM
Maybe. . .

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gIQRsLWd1w4/T6U7obTrrNI/AAAAAAAAJwE/l86U36Wgi54/s1600/Top+5+Strongest+Alcoholic+Drinks+in+the+World+everclear.jpg)

If that don't do it, it should come close.


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Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 17, 2017, 09:11:33 PM
If that don't do it, it should come close.


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Lol...I would reserve that one for when a snowstorm strikes west & middle Tennessee, Kentucky, the plateau and the mountains, while the Great Valley of east Tennessee gets a dusting. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on October 17, 2017, 11:18:16 PM
I miss every big snowstorm we ever got. I'm either in Nashville or Knoxville, and the other city gets the snow whenever there's a big event. And I missed many of the snows from the 2000s when I lived in Germany  ::rant::
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 18, 2017, 06:51:41 AM
I miss every big snowstorm we ever got. I'm either in Nashville or Knoxville, and the other city gets the snow whenever there's a big event. And I missed many of the snows from the 2000s when I lived in Germany  ::rant::

Everyone here feels your pain.  We've all been there one time or another. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Charles L. on October 18, 2017, 08:41:23 AM
Anyone else every go back and read through old threads about events? I do it around this time every year and look at the winter ones. I can't wait for this season! Last season was so dreadful that any sizeable (2-4" snow) event will be great!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 18, 2017, 09:25:53 AM
Anyone else every go back and read through old threads about events? I do it around this time every year and look at the winter ones. I can't wait for this season! Last season was so dreadful that any sizeable (2-4" snow) event will be great!

Yes!  Like going back through a weather journal and reliving the moment.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on October 18, 2017, 12:01:27 PM
Anyone else every go back and read through old threads about events? I do it around this time every year and look at the winter ones. I can't wait for this season! Last season was so dreadful that any sizeable (2-4" snow) event will be great!
2 to 4in.  Keep it.... like they say at the gym... go big or go home... ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Charles L. on October 18, 2017, 12:08:33 PM
2 to 4in.  Keep it.... like they say at the gym... go big or go home... ;)

You know me Bruce, I never pass up snow!
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on October 18, 2017, 12:15:26 PM
The first meteorological event that piqued my interest in weather was a snowstorm that hit most of continental northern Europe in the mid-2000s (I think it was 2006, but I can't really remember). I was living in Stuttgart, Germany at the time and remember waking up one morning to several inches of wet snow on the ground with heavy wet flakes still coming down. As a kid, there was nothing more exciting than waking up to snow that you never knew was coming. After that I would always try to find the best available weather forecasts during the winter because I was so eager for the next big snowfall. That defeats the purpose of being surprised by snow on the ground, but it's still just as exciting to track a big storm.

And it's not just Tennessee; so many snowstorms that were forecast to produce several inches or more in southern Germany were usually just rain with a dusting on the back end of the system. Thanks to elevation, Switzerland and Austria always got all the snow and we HATED that  ::rofl:: And then once the system met colder air, which was always east of us, the Czech Republic and Poland would receive significant snowfall. It was like living in the valley here in East Tennessee and seeing everything surrounding you cash in while the Plateau disintegrates the system.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 18, 2017, 02:21:47 PM
There were several surprises in the late 70s. Dave Brown was famous for forecasting flurries to a dusting and we would wake up to a winter storm. The biggest surprise that I can remember was I think Christmas of 1993. No mention of snow and woke up to 4 inches. That was awesome.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Eric on October 18, 2017, 04:27:43 PM
There were several surprises in the late 70s. Dave Brown was famous for forecasting flurries to a dusting and we would wake up to a winter storm. The biggest surprise that I can remember was I think Christmas of 1993. No mention of snow and woke up to 4 inches. That was awesome.

Said no wife or girlfriend.  Ever. 
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: schneitzeit on October 18, 2017, 04:59:24 PM
Said no wife or girlfriend.  Ever.

LOL
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: harlequin on October 18, 2017, 09:40:41 PM
There were several surprises in the late 70s. Dave Brown was famous for forecasting flurries to a dusting and we would wake up to a winter storm. The biggest surprise that I can remember was I think Christmas of 1993. No mention of snow and woke up to 4 inches. That was awesome.

I don't think there was a snow this far south (Memphis) that year at Christmas.

Dave Brown was fairly conservative until he retired in my opinion. Not in a particularly problematic way, but he held back on winter events. I really remember him underforecasting March 2008.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on October 19, 2017, 12:49:11 AM
There were several surprises in the late 70s. Dave Brown was famous for forecasting flurries to a dusting and we would wake up to a winter storm. The biggest surprise that I can remember was I think Christmas of 1993. No mention of snow and woke up to 4 inches. That was awesome.
I remember 93, that was a total surprise. in the 70's Tom Siler was every kids favorite in middle tn. He predicted a few storms way before everyone else and really got popular during the 76-79 period. But it faded. Bill Hall was very good at seeing patterns with winter weather in our area. It was fun watching them back then in that era. I remember during the winters of the mid to late 70's and all 3 stations would sometimes have different forecast. Technology wasn't as good and they would go out on a limb much more with their forecast. It was good entertainment for winter weather lovers.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 19, 2017, 07:20:32 AM
One of the things I miss about life "back in the day" are the surprise weather events.  Thanks to the internet and access to up- to-the-minute radar and short range model updates like the HRRR, NAM and others, good surprises are few and far between these days.  I'm not complaining about access to that information--it makes for fun winter nights staying up late watching a snow storm approach, but a bit of the wide-eyed wonder is lost when you can't be surprised anymore.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: NashRugger on October 19, 2017, 11:35:01 AM
Official NOAA winter forecast for our area is slightly wetter to equal chances of precip compared to normal but overall warmer than average. Typical pattern for what's in the Pacific.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: MrWonderful84 on October 19, 2017, 12:43:54 PM
The official NOAA forecast is not one to put much credit towards.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on October 19, 2017, 06:06:32 PM
Official NOAA winter forecast for our area is slightly wetter to equal chances of precip compared to normal but overall warmer than average. Typical pattern for what's in the Pacific.
cool.... hopefully we can cash in on some nice severe wx threats this winter also....  ;)
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: harlequin on October 19, 2017, 10:57:42 PM
One of the things I miss about life "back in the day" are the surprise weather events.  Thanks to the internet and access to up- to-the-minute radar and short range model updates like the HRRR, NAM and others, good surprises are few and far between these days.  I'm not complaining about access to that information--it makes for fun winter nights staying up late watching a snow storm approach, but a bit of the wide-eyed wonder is lost when you can't be surprised anymore.

February 2010 was a big surprise here. Around 6" in Midtown and up to 8" immediately north and south. February/March 2009 was a huge surprise as 12-18" fell from northeast AR through the northeastern Memphis metro. I think those are the biggest two since I have a good memory... so since 2000. No big surprise since then unless I'm forgetting something.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: NashRugger on October 19, 2017, 11:50:18 PM
The official NOAA forecast is not one to put much credit towards.
I don't, but was just putting it out that it was released.
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: JayCee on October 20, 2017, 07:41:40 AM
NOAA seems to have three winter weather outlooks.  One for El Nino, one for La Nina, and one that just paints Equal Chances/Above normal temperatures everywhere when neither is going on.  This year is just a copy/paste of their La Nina outlook--same as every other La Nina year.   :-\
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Cody on October 20, 2017, 09:55:45 AM
NOAA seems to have three winter weather outlooks.  One for El Nino, one for La Nina, and one that just paints Equal Chances/Above normal temperatures everywhere when neither is going on.  This year is just a copy/paste of their La Nina outlook--same as every other La Nina year.   :-\

Yea when they start talking global warming, they have to make it look like the earth is going to catch on fire.


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Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on October 20, 2017, 10:09:36 AM
NOAA seems to have three winter weather outlooks.  One for El Nino, one for La Nina, and one that just paints Equal Chances/Above normal temperatures everywhere when neither is going on.  This year is just a copy/paste of their La Nina outlook--same as every other La Nina year.   :-\

NOAA just forecasts typical La Nina and El Ninos as if they are all the same. They don't seem to account for strength, location, etc


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Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: BRUCE on October 20, 2017, 11:59:16 AM
NOAA just forecasts typical La Nina and El Ninos as if they are all the same. They don't seem to account for strength, location, etc


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ask California about fires.... bad
Title: Re: Winter 2017-18
Post by: Drifter49 on October 20, 2017, 12:01:59 PM
ask California about fires.... bad

Yeah I know about the fires. Been out there while it's been going on. All I'm saying not all El Niño's, La Ninas are the same.


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