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* Current Watches/Warnings/Advisories for TN - Click the (+) Icon to the Right to see them ------>

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1
Winter Weather / Re: Winter 2018-19
« Last post by Clint on Today at 05:43:33 PM »
StormNine, thanks for posting your thoughts for this upcoming Winter... but I'm curious, you have Memphis at +3.0 for January temps. Would that be a typo?
2
Winter Weather / Re: Winter 2018-19
« Last post by StormNine on Today at 04:56:43 PM »
It is probably too early but I won't have a lot of free time in Oct-early December so I will go ahead and post my thoughts and way too early prediction for the winter now.

The major factors will be:

- Weak to Moderate West-Based aka Modoki El-Nino.  I am thinking similar in the strength to 2006-07 but unlike 2006-07 this will likely be a Central Pacific type of El-Nino.  These tend to be better for us in the Eastern USA.

+ PDO which tends to lead to riding in the Western USA

The QBO trend that Curt described

- An active subtropical jet which we have seen already.  San Antonio now has their wettest September on record.   

The pattern we will start to head into in the coming weeks is likely a sign of what is to come for much of the winter.  There will be relaxation periods just like we had in 2009-10 and 2014-15 but I have reason to believe we are in for a very solid winter for the Southern and Northeastern USA. 

Color Map:
Orange: Above Normal +1 to +3 temperature departure
Red: Much Above Normal Greater than +3

Blue: Below Normal -1 to -3 temperature departure
Dark Blue: Much Below Greater than -3




I will go with climatology and say that late-November and December will be a relaxation between a colder than normal October-early November and what follows.  As long as we avoid a strongly +NAO or +AO then I will think that our area will finish close to average temperature wise and may find a way to at least sneak in a winter event.

Chattanogga: +1.0
Memphis: +0.8
Nashville: +1.0
Tri-Cities: +1.5 

 

I think here is where the +PDO and favorable Pacific conditions will overall lead to paydirt. With potential blocking in the Northwest and SE Canada and into Greenland that will allow for winter air to pour into our area and linger starting in January. The teardrop shape is due to the potential for the ridges to intrude at times in the Northern Plains.  An active subtropical jet should also help temperatures down quite a bit in the southern USA by way of precipitation and cloudcover.

Chattanogga: -3.1
Memphis: -3.0
Nashville: -2.5
Tri-Cities: -2.5



Another day and another cold February prediction.  I thankfully didn't predict a cold one on 2017, but the 2018 and 2016 calls were major busts.  Our last two Modoki El-Nino's (2010 and 2015) were solidly below average in the temperature category.  As long as the Pacific cooperates we may not even need a -NAO/AO as a strong +PNA may help in assuming a Warm to Hot West and Cold East pattern.  Will this one bust or will this one verify as 2010 and 2015 did?  We will have to wait and see.  I do think there is a strong potential for at least a Top 10 Warmest February on record in the Pacific Northwest. 

Chattanogga: -5.0
Memphis: -3.5
Nashville: -4.0
Tri-Cities: -4.5

Precipitation:



Typically in weaker El-Nino events the subtropcial jet is suppressed a bit further south.  With the potential of some potent cold air masses I will agree with that decision and go with a drier than normal winter for our area.  Remember that if much of our precip is snow we will likely up drier than normal as 1 inch of snow comes to only 0.10 of an inch of rain and it could be as low as 15:1 or even 20:1 in really cold airmasses. 
3
General Weather / Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Last post by JayCee on Today at 03:56:21 PM »
Flash Flood Warnings have already begun in parts of southeast KY where heavy, training thunderstorms are dropping too much rain too quickly.

4
Winter Weather / Re: Winter 2018-19
« Last post by snowdog on Today at 03:44:18 PM »
Models agree on first U.S. winter storm of the season to hit MT, ND, & MN on Oct. 1.

Winter Storm A-Aron
5
Winter Weather / Re: Winter 2018-19
« Last post by schneitzeit on Today at 03:37:44 PM »
Models agree on first U.S. winter storm of the season to hit MT, ND, & MN on Oct. 1.
6
General Weather / Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Last post by snowdog on Today at 02:40:18 PM »
Can someone tell me what daytime temps in the 60s feel like? Asking for a friend

Winter in Alabama?
7
Winter Weather / Re: Winter 2018-19
« Last post by JayCee on Today at 02:31:05 PM »
proably building them higher to prepare for the floods thatís coming later ... lol

Could be....or the snowdrifts.   ::evillaugh::

8
General Weather / Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Last post by Curt on Today at 01:10:28 PM »
Can someone tell me what daytime temps in the 60s feel like? Asking for a friend

68 here with rain and drizzle. Feels miles apart from your 91 at the moment although thatís where we were yesterday at this time
9
General Weather / Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Last post by justinmundie on Today at 12:53:51 PM »
Can someone tell me what daytime temps in the 60s feel like? Asking for a friend
10
General Weather / Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Last post by Curt on Today at 10:09:09 AM »
Euro weeklies go below normal after day 10 and never look back through day 46
Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 10

* Recent Posts

Winter 2018-19
by Clint
[Today at 05:43:33 PM]
Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
by JayCee
[Today at 03:56:21 PM]
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[Today at 04:05:55 AM]
Major Hurricane Florence
by cgauxknox
[September 20, 2018, 09:55:23 AM]
Summer (Cancel) 2018
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