Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Tropical Spin Zone => Topic started by: cgauxknox on September 01, 2017, 04:58:54 AM

Title: Hurricane Irma
Post by: cgauxknox on September 01, 2017, 04:58:54 AM
Let's all hope that Irma, currently at Cat 3 and forecast to soon strengthen to a Cat 4, becomes a fish storm and we don't have a second major landfall in the U.S.  Regardless, it's a big enough storm with enough potential that I think it's worth a thread to track it.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: BRUCE on September 01, 2017, 07:25:46 AM
hope it does go ots... but long range pattern... says this bears watching for the us coast line... euro play s out... good chance going be a us hit somewhere... its got serious strong ridge high pressure building east... forces it pretty much west.. going be interesting see what the trough does next week first... that might keep it out of the gom... ::coffee::   this could get to cat  5...   
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: mamMATTus on September 01, 2017, 08:22:25 AM
Already fake maps being made.[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 01, 2017, 09:39:20 AM
I just need this to stay far away from the area between the East Coast and Bermuda between now and Thursday... the wife and I are going on a cruise.  8)  ::wow::

Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: BRUCE on September 01, 2017, 10:08:33 AM
Already fake maps being made. (Attachment Link)
yeah.. and james spann just made a bogus statement too...  promise you this.... there is someone that knows where irma is heading to... :angel:

Post Merge: September 01, 2017, 04:51:31 PM
anyone from florida to north carolina coast... after todays 12zeuro.... ::wow::
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 02, 2017, 08:40:52 AM
06Z GFS has a worrisome look.  Irma scoring a direct hit--going inland just barely west of NYC, which would put our nation's largest city in the worst possible position for surge and inland flooding.  A trough coming in later in the week could push it out to sea, or pull it inland, depending on how deep it is.  A deeper trough in the Ohio Valley would be worse--yanking Irma toward our east coast--anywhere from the Carolina's to New England.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 02, 2017, 06:52:34 PM
It will be middle of the week before we have a better idea imo. Models are struggling with the strength and timing of the trough. Most models do have this thing becoming a picture perfect monster of a storm. Hopefully it can get kicked ots.

Post Merge: September 03, 2017, 12:24:16 AM
Please let the 0z GFS be wrong.
Edit to add that the 0z Euro is almost identical to the GFS. It's 8 days out but that's scary agreement.



(http://i68.tinypic.com/28tyfky.jpg)
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 03, 2017, 07:52:42 AM
To have another major hurricane hit so soon after Harvey would be terrible.  The front that moves through our area on Tuesday-Wednesday hangs up just off shore of the East Coast.  Depending on where that elongated lower pressure/weakness ends up will impact Irma late week.  The forecast trajectory of the hurricane reminds me a bit of Hugo in '89. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Charles L. on September 03, 2017, 09:45:29 AM
The latest with Irma isn't good news for the east coast. I feel for these meteorologist though. Just anybody can post some outlandish claim on social media and it will go viral. In this area of widespread, 24/7 news, it is easy to spread lies. People will do anything for clicks and likes.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: BRUCE on September 03, 2017, 02:56:23 PM
More and more Epps  members has Irma getting in the gulf  ::wow::
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 03, 2017, 03:41:40 PM
Per MRX:

Quote
LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)...H5 trough will drop out
of Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes early in the extended period,
sweeping a cold front through our region during Tuesday. Expect
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday
night, diminishing Wednesday. From Wednesday through Sunday, post
frontal temperatures could persistently run 8 to 12 degrees below
normal. Why such a persistent cool period? Because the cold H5
trough will be slow to leave the eastern U.S., not doing so until
the upcoming weekend. That`s when things get further complicated. As
the trough departs, the Bermuda High seemingly wants to nudge
westward onto the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday morning. This is
significant because the underbelly of the Bermuda high has been the
feature steering Hurricane Irma across the Atlantic, and at this
time the long-range GFS and ECMWF bring Irma ashore between Myrtle
Beach SC and Wilmington NC on Monday. Just how far westward she
moves once inland will impact our weather late Monday and beyond.
Bear in mind that these long-range model forecasts of landfall can
experience much variation as the time draws near, and landfall
itself is no certainty.


Too bad our eastern trough decides to depart at the worst possible time--when Irma approaches.  Otherwise, it would be steered out to sea.  Of course, as MRX stated, no landfall is set in stone yet.  But it is looking worrisome at the very least. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: BRUCE on September 03, 2017, 10:24:34 PM
latest  new cone  ... which i tried to paste... didnt come up... show south  west trend continues... chances her getting into the gulf are slowly increasing, especially the east side ::coffee::
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Clay on September 03, 2017, 11:07:57 PM
All the models show a recurve buts it hard not entertaining the idea of Irma getting into the Gulf with strong blocking high pressure locked in place across the Northern Apps.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 03, 2017, 11:46:07 PM
The 0z GFS is the craziest model run of a tropical system that I have ever seen. It makes landfall in Miami at 884 mb and goes the length of Florida sub 930. Ends up in Chicago.



(http://i68.tinypic.com/icljdf.jpg)
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: skillsweather on September 04, 2017, 02:31:14 AM
So we could get rain from this possibly? Miami to Chicago thats crazy track lol
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 04, 2017, 06:31:18 AM
The 0z GFS is the craziest model run of a tropical system that I have ever seen. It makes landfall in Miami at 884 mb and goes the length of Florida sub 930. Ends up in Chicago.



(http://i68.tinypic.com/icljdf.jpg)

06z GFS run is equally bizarre.  Irma heads northwest toward Cuba, abruptly turns north to travel the length of Florida, then bends west towards Nashville, and dissipates near Memphis.  The sharp right turn over Cuba to head north is something I've never seen before.  Most strong hurricanes don't turn that suddenly without a good reason.  And the strong high pressure over the Northern Apps the GFS shows isn't one.  It has Irma turning north and plowing right into it.

Totally off the wall track, but it has been that kind of summer. 


Post Merge: September 04, 2017, 07:00:29 AM
NHC:
Quote
A strong, stationary mid-tropospheric high centered over the central
Atlantic is forcing Irma on a west-southwestward course, and the
initial motion estimate remains 255/12 kt.  Irma will begin
rounding the southwestern edge of the high soon, which will allow
the hurricane to turn westward later today and then west-
northwestward in 36-48 hours.  Down the road, a large mid-latitude
trough is expected to dig southward over the eastern United States
during the next 72 hours, but the global models have been trending
toward quickly lifting the trough out over New England and eastern
Canada on days 4 and 5, with the subtropical ridge building westward
toward Florida.  As a result, it's becoming increasingly likely that
Irma would maintain a west-northwestward heading on days 3 through
5, and the track guidance shifted significantly westward on this
cycle during that period.  Remarkably, the track models are very
tightly clustered through day 5, which increases the confidence in
the westward shift of the latest NHC forecast.




Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Charles L. on September 04, 2017, 07:38:51 AM
Buckle up guys. This is going to be a big weather week with the focus on Irma.
Title: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Curt on September 04, 2017, 10:09:06 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170904/ea7a950bc30d99e32e72f4144024da8e.png)

Last nights GEFS. How far west will she go? For now, getting tough to see much of anything further north than the mid Atlanta with that massive Florida grouped cluster. Looks like the big trough may miss her. Bet the westward trend isn't over just yet.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: StormNine on September 04, 2017, 01:24:15 PM
If Irma were to make landfall in the USA the contrast between her strong low-pressure center and a building high-pressure system would create a significant inland wind event that would go quite far inland. There is still a chance for Irma to go out to sea, but the latest trends are quite concerning that US Southeast, Cuba, and the Bahamas may not be so lucky. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Charles L. on September 04, 2017, 01:40:30 PM
The Euro is very GFS-lite in that it shows it close to the FL coast. It has it at 926 mb, which is much more realistic than the GFS' bomb.

Post Merge: September 04, 2017, 05:14:44 PM
18z GFS keeps the idea of a southern FL landfall. Miami would be a mess. (The pressure is overdone)

[attachimg=1]

Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: wfrogge on September 04, 2017, 05:43:37 PM
Now cat 4
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 04, 2017, 06:02:44 PM
18z GFS brings it up the Florida peninsula and dissipates it over the southern Appalachians. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: skillsweather on September 04, 2017, 06:28:59 PM
18z GFS brings it up the Florida peninsula and dissipates it over the southern Appalachians.
Any rain for northern middle tennessee?
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 04, 2017, 06:54:45 PM
Any rain for northern middle tennessee?

It does show some rain there, but east of the plateau takes the brunt of it.  Nevertheless, way too early to get specific with rain totals.   Who knows where this storm ends up. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: cgauxknox on September 04, 2017, 08:28:56 PM
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/09/04/florida-gov-rick-scott-declares-state-emergency-ahead-category-4-hurricane-irma.html

On the one hand this seems premature, but with a storm this powerful it may be warranted.  My fear is that if this storm takes a sudden swing late people who should have plans in place may be caught flat footed.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 04, 2017, 11:49:20 PM
0z GFS is a carbon copy devastating hit for all of Florida. The CMC comes way south and west. Direct hit for Cuba and then landfall in Destin. CMC is for sure the outlier but would be best case scenario for SE coast if there is one  because Cuba landfall would hopefully weaken the storm.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Charles L. on September 05, 2017, 05:23:44 AM
Recon just found a pressure of 932 mb in Irma. This is a monster of a storm.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 05, 2017, 06:21:18 AM
Most models seem to be locking onto a path for Irma up the Florida peninsula into the Southern Appalachians.  06Z GFS is troubling as it grazes the whole east coast of Florida, leaving the eye just off shore before a landfall near the border of GA and SC.  That would allow Irma to maintain some strength as it travels the coastline, if it does stay just offshore.

Another worrisome aspect of this storm is it coming into the Appalachians with strong winds and heavy rains.  Considering the burn areas from last year's fires, flooding and landslides could be a major problem.  Weakened or dead trees will easily fall in strong winds and saturated soils if 4-6 inches of rain fall as some models show.

How often has two major hurricanes affected TN within just a few weeks?
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Charles L. on September 05, 2017, 06:35:55 AM
Recon just had a 167 kts FL wind. This thing is a Cat 5. Pressure also was measured at 930.
Title: Hurricane Irma
Post by: mempho on September 05, 2017, 06:46:59 AM
Recon just found a Cat 5...

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Charles L. on September 05, 2017, 06:54:42 AM
The latest HWRF run shows a powerful hurricane moving into the FL Keys at the end of its run...

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: mempho on September 05, 2017, 06:55:57 AM
NHC -  175mph!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Charles L. on September 05, 2017, 07:00:54 AM
NHC -  175mph!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

A whopping 25 mph jump from their last advisory. And further strengthening is still possible too.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: DocB on September 05, 2017, 07:40:29 AM
The latest HWRF run shows a powerful hurricane moving into the FL Keys at the end of its run...
Having lived through Hurricane Andrew and the months of rebuilding, this is a far better scenario than hitting Miami or further north. Andrew could have been far worse had it made that northern shift and hoping Irma follow suit.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Charles L. on September 05, 2017, 07:44:11 AM
Having lived through Hurricane Andrew and the months of rebuilding, this is a far better scenario than hitting Miami or further north. Andrew could have been far worse had it made that northern shift and hoping Irma follow suit.

The only issue with this track is that it will either end up hitting the western edge of FL or going into the Gulf. If this thing goes this route, someone is getting screwed.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: cgauxknox on September 05, 2017, 08:32:03 AM
Irma's development and likely track are almost beyond words.  While the forecast tracks are getting better I still think we're much too far out to put a lot of stock in a landfall in any particular place, although it does look like landfall somewhere is increasingly likely.  Several days ago I read some forecaster somewhere (I've read so much I honestly just don't remember where I saw it) saying he expected Irma to be a 180mph Cat 5.  That seemed sensational at the time, but here we are with a verified 175mph.  Somebody said it already; we've got a long week of monitoring to see where this thing goes.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Curt on September 05, 2017, 09:26:59 AM
Worth noting that half the EPS members take Irma into the keys and into the western GOM before turning north into the FL panhandle. Kinda matches the CMC ENS from last night.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: WXHD on September 05, 2017, 09:49:42 AM
Scary stuff. There is already a shortage of bottled water in Florida as so much of it has been diverted to Houston. One store sold 11 pallets to of water in 32mins, leaving the shelves and stockroom bare. I imagine preparing will cause gas prices to swell as well.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Charles L. on September 05, 2017, 09:56:31 AM
Hurricane Hunters just found a pressure in the mid 920s. Irma is still strengthening.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: spanarkle08 on September 05, 2017, 10:27:12 AM
Do you guys think we will feel any of the impact in west TN
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JHart on September 05, 2017, 10:45:11 AM
Quote
000
WTNT41 KNHC 051446
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

Irma is an extremely impressive hurricane in both infrared and
visible satellite images.  Experimental GOES-16 one-minute visible
satellite pictures show a distinct 25-30 n mi wide eye with several
mesovortices rotating within with eye.  The aircraft have not
sampled the northeastern eyewall where the strongest winds were
measured shortly before 1200 UTC this morning, but the Air Force
plane will be entering the eye in that quadrant momentarily.  A peak
SFMR wind of 154 kt was reported, with a few others of 149-150 kt.
Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this
advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic
basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC
records
.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: NashRugger on September 05, 2017, 11:03:46 AM
Do you guys think we will feel any of the impact in west TN
Still far too soon to tell, but at this point it'd be next to nothing other than some clouds and maybe breezy conditions.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: mamMATTus on September 05, 2017, 12:30:32 PM
12z GFS has an Irma landfall near Savannah on Monday night.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: wfrogge on September 05, 2017, 12:44:16 PM
Man the GFS has this thing deeping in the mid 890s.  Record potential here folks
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Curt on September 05, 2017, 02:08:04 PM
3 schools of thought for potential US impact...

GFS/ GEFS = very Matthew like track along the east FL coast from Miami northward with only true landfall in Savannah

Euro/ CMC = Irma hits the keys and turns north along the west coast of FL with Euro landfall in Naples and CMC around Apalachicola.

and then there's the  HWRF which at its end has Irma crossing northern Cuba and emerging around Havana back into the GOM near the western tip


Lots of variability that should be tightened up in a couple of days
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: justinmundie on September 05, 2017, 02:31:08 PM
Man the GFS has this thing deeping in the mid 890s.  Record potential here folks

GFS resolution upgrade is likely screwing up here. I don't think anyone is projecting this to go sub 900.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 05, 2017, 04:35:12 PM
3 schools of thought for potential US impact...

GFS/ GEFS = very Matthew like track along the east FL coast from Miami northward with only true landfall in Savannah

Euro/ CMC = Irma hits the keys and turns north along the west coast of FL with Euro landfall in Naples and CMC around Apalachicola.

and then there's the  HWRF which at its end has Irma crossing northern Cuba and emerging aroun.  Havana back into the GOM near the western tip


Lots of variability that should be tightened up in a couple of days
Literally anyone from NC to Destin Florida could be in the crosshairs. If you blend all the models Miami is ground zero and that is the track that the GFS has been consistent with for several days. Like you said picture should be clearer in a couple days.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Crockett on September 05, 2017, 05:07:10 PM
The early historical resemblance between Irma and Wilma in 1960 is scary. If Irma follows Wilma's path and strength, the devastation is going to be astronomical.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 05, 2017, 05:16:15 PM
GFS resolution upgrade is likely screwing up here. I don't think anyone is projecting this to go sub 900.
I agree about the GFS but recon just recorded a 916 reading. That is insane.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 05, 2017, 05:30:53 PM
The 2017 tropical season is really making a name for itself.  Harvey broke a record for the most rain any tropical system has dropped on U.S. soil, and now we have Irma breaking a record for the strongest storm in the Atlantic basin (outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) and there is little to prevent it from gaining further strength.  Two back to back disasters that BOTH could be the costliest in U.S. history, depending on what happens with Irma.  Considering it's only September 5th, this is going to be a long hurricane season. 

Post Merge: September 05, 2017, 06:14:55 PM
18Z GFS (still running) takes Irma east of Florida, and inland just below Wilmington, NC.  It's an outlier, and east of the official NHC forecast. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: BRUCE on September 05, 2017, 06:31:09 PM
would give almost anything to get the chance and fly into the storm itself in one those recon planes... and collect the data.... ::yum::
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 05, 2017, 06:56:39 PM
Per GSP:

Quote
The placement of an
upper low over the southeast next weekend continues to be vital to
the track of Irma...as unpredictable Fujiwhara interaction with that
feature will likely determine details of the final track.

I guess the Fujiwhara effect is why some models have Irma actually bending to the left or northwest as it progresses north after landfall, instead of recurving to the northeast, as most hurricanes usually do as they gain latitude. 


Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: dwagner88 on September 05, 2017, 07:15:22 PM
I have plans to go to the SC coast for a few days the first week of October. That area has seen severe beach erosion since Matthew last year. Some of the models are quite ominous for that area. Shades of Hugo.
Title: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Curt on September 05, 2017, 10:04:24 PM
12z EPS spaghetti

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170906/ca926fc129f1dd03636c8a2b84dabc26.jpg)

If it heads over mountainous Cuba, it would be bad for them but beneficial for the US unless it pops out into the central GOM. Best guess now is right up the entire FL peninsula. Should tighten up in 48 hours
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Curt on September 05, 2017, 10:19:25 PM
Man Barbuda is about to get drilled. Should be completely in the eye wall in a couple of hours
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 05, 2017, 11:30:57 PM
Man Barbuda is about to get drilled. Should be completely in the eye wall in a couple of hours
Can you imagine ? It is basically a 40 mile wide EF4 tornado and that's just the eye.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Clay on September 05, 2017, 11:37:14 PM
GFS resolution upgrade is likely screwing up here. I don't think anyone is projecting this to go sub 900.
It wasn't an issue with Harvey.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: NashRugger on September 06, 2017, 12:15:44 AM
Station on Barbuda was sustained up to 103kts and now coming down as they move into the eye.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: mempho on September 06, 2017, 03:56:45 AM
Station on Barbuda was sustained up to 103kts and now coming down as they move into the eye.
I believe it has been determined that the station was broken after the 103 sustained.  I don't want anyone thinking that they *only* got 103 knots sustained. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 06, 2017, 07:32:51 AM
06Z GFS back to bending Irma to the northwest and dissipating it over the southern Appalachians.  On that track, even middle TN gets some heavy rain.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Curt on September 06, 2017, 08:36:09 AM
(http://i68.tinypic.com/9sgzfl.png)

6z GEFS and 6z GFS OPS- some members even cluster back to the NE Atlantic now which is a big swing

Beginning to get some trending now..tonight should be telling.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: dwagner88 on September 06, 2017, 08:37:44 AM
I don't think the NHC track is plausible. Has a hurricane ever ridden straight up FL like that? Seems like friction with the landmass would tend to steer it up one coast or another. The GFS is a catastrophe for SC. Would probably be worse than Hugo. If the storm acts like Matthew and drags up the FL coast, it would spare SC the worst at the expense of FL.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Curt on September 06, 2017, 08:43:37 AM
I don't think the NHC track is plausible. Has a hurricane ever ridden straight up FL like that? Seems like friction with the landmass would tend to steer it up one coast or another. The GFS is a catastrophe for SC. Would probably be worse than Hugo. If the storm acts like Matthew and drags up the FL coast, it would spare SC the worst at the expense of FL.

Man talk about a Florida spare job- the latest HWRF swings Irma between Grand Bahama and FL and back to the NE sparing FL the worst.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: DocB on September 06, 2017, 10:06:48 AM
I don't think the NHC track is plausible. Has a hurricane ever ridden straight up FL like that? Seems like friction with the landmass would tend to steer it up one coast or another.
I remember Hurricane David in '79 following the coast like this before coming inland.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 06, 2017, 10:31:01 AM
Man talk about a Florida spare job- the latest HWRF swings Irma between Grand Bahama and FL and back to the NE sparing FL the worst.

Would be nice if she just turned out to sea never to be heard from again. She's one angry lady.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: NashRugger on September 06, 2017, 11:12:04 AM
I don't think the NHC track is plausible. Has a hurricane ever ridden straight up FL like that? Seems like friction with the landmass would tend to steer it up one coast or another. The GFS is a catastrophe for SC. Would probably be worse than Hugo. If the storm acts like Matthew and drags up the FL coast, it would spare SC the worst at the expense of FL.
Yes, Hurricane King in 1950 that walloped Miami and did a significant amount of damage to the inland fruit crops.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 06, 2017, 12:38:57 PM
12z GFS came back west a little. 12z GEFS is tightly clustered with a Florida hit. No members in Gulf or OTS. Might be zeroing in.

Post Merge: September 06, 2017, 12:45:02 PM
(http://i68.tinypic.com/5mefpe.jpg)
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 06, 2017, 01:18:30 PM
12z GFS came back west a little. 12z GEFS is tightly clustered with a Florida hit. No members in Gulf or OTS. Might be zeroing in.

Post Merge: September 06, 2017, 12:45:02 PM
(http://i68.tinypic.com/5mefpe.jpg)

Depending on it's speed, that could cause quite a bit of damage to the higher elevations of the Smokies, since Irma won't have much time over land to weaken the wind energy.  And ground level winds of the lower elevations won't reflect what the higher elevations of the mountains will experience.  They could easily see hurricane force winds up there--near 100 mph.  Considering all the damage already done by fire, the loose soil and weakened trees won't stand a chance.   :-\

There will probably be a large number of evacuees heading to the Smokies to escape Irma.  May not be the best place, after all. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Curt on September 06, 2017, 03:47:22 PM
(http://i63.tinypic.com/vpxpjd.png)
HWRF...beast mode at West Palm albeit those ridiculous wind gusts are probably just a tad off shore in the NE quad.

Edit- after the western eye wall makes landfall at West Palm briefly, it moves just enough to the NE to keep the worst of the winds off the FL coast, but still hurricane gusts just on shore. After that looks like its a bee line to the GA-SC border- as a beast still.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: mamMATTus on September 06, 2017, 03:54:29 PM
Has Irma gone through an eyewall replacement cycle yet?
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 06, 2017, 04:34:01 PM
Dang...this storm on satellite is the epitome of a perfect hurricane.  It looks like a buzz saw cutting across the Atlantic.  There is no evidence of sheer & the eye is perfectly formed.  It reminds me of another monster--Gilbert--from '88.  This really is bad.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: dwagner88 on September 06, 2017, 04:36:45 PM
Has Irma gone through an eyewall replacement cycle yet?
No. And I think it is close to setting a longevity record for a category 5. The recon flights are finding that category 5 winds are occurring in all 4 quadrants around the eye. That uniformity is rare and has to be contributing to the lack of an ERC.

Post Merge: September 06, 2017, 05:22:37 PM
New GFS grazes SE FL with a sub 900 mb storm then slams due north and hits Hilton Head as a 902 mb storm. This run also likely has very high winds in the east TN mountains.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: skillsweather on September 06, 2017, 05:37:20 PM
Not to get off topic but there is 3 hurricanes  active now. Katia, Irma and Jose. Ofc Irma has all the attention and I think Jose is staying out to sea but still it seems like the last time things have been this active was before 2010 sometime. At least in my memory.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 06, 2017, 05:52:19 PM
No. And I think it is close to setting a longevity record for a category 5. The recon flights are finding that category 5 winds are occurring in all 4 quadrants around the eye. That uniformity is rare and has to be contributing to the lack of an ERC.

Post Merge: September 06, 2017, 05:22:37 PM
New GFS grazes SE FL with a sub 900 mb storm then slams due north and hits Hilton Head as a 902 mb storm. This run also likely has very high winds in the east TN mountains.

Yes, it continued the trend of bending the storm to the northwest directly into upper east Tennessee.  That would be very bad for the higher elevations of both Tennessee and North Carolina.  What's left of Irma actually ends up in central KY before dissipating.  Significant rains extend well into middle TN.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: bugalou on September 06, 2017, 06:04:10 PM
Not to get off topic but there is 3 hurricanes  active now. Katia, Irma and Jose. Ofc Irma has all the attention and I think Jose is staying out to sea but still it seems like the last time things have been this active was before 2010 sometime. At least in my memory.

Irma is likely going to alter Jose's course ever so slightly.  You can already see it happening watching the model runs the past few days.  OTS is not a given yet.

As for Irma, the path now is looking terrible for eastern Florida and someone in SC is going to get hammered too with a major Hurricane crashing into the upper low and gaining some baroclinicity.  May see an area off enhanced winds far north of the storm center like Sandy did.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 06, 2017, 06:32:56 PM
The HMON is awful for Miami. This model along with HWRF where being laughed at with Harvey and they nailed it.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/1qicxu.jpg)
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: BRUCE on September 06, 2017, 06:37:28 PM
somebody is going to get drilled from this... ::wow::
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Charles L. on September 06, 2017, 06:45:58 PM
The HWRF has a 909 mb monster just off shore the Miami/Fort Lauderdale/Jupiter corridor. Man, if this thing is off 50 miles too far east, watch out.

Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 06, 2017, 06:57:24 PM
Hurricane Andrew regained Cat 5 status right before hitting the southern tip of Florida back in '92.  But it was a relatively small hurricane, and the strongest wind field was small and concentrated near Homestead, just south of Miami.  Irma is bigger and it won't be shooting across the tip of Florida like a bullet, but grinding into the whole east coast like a plow.  The damage to Homestead was catastrophic, now imagine that damage over a massive area if Irma comes into Miami and then heads due north along the coast.  Worst case scenario. 

Our best hope is for Irma to turn north sooner and keep the eyewall well offshore. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: dwagner88 on September 06, 2017, 08:10:44 PM
The HMON is awful for Miami. This model along with HWRF where being laughed at with Harvey and they nailed it.

(http://i66.tinypic.com/1qicxu.jpg)
That pressure has to be bunk. 876 at landfall? That's lower than Wilma (the Atlantic record holder) at her peak in the Gulf.
That being said, this exact scenario would be a natural disaster of completely unprecedented levels. That is one of the most densely populated areas in the US.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: snowdog on September 06, 2017, 09:36:55 PM
The HMON is awful for Miami. This model along with HWRF where being laughed at with Harvey and they nailed it.

Holy schnikes...that would obliterate Miami. I could see a 910 to 920 monster. That water to the south and southeast of Miami is bath water right now. Should be rapid intensification before landfall.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 07, 2017, 03:02:12 AM
0z Euro and HMON destroy Miami. UKMET is further west in south Florida. The GFS and CMC are further east and have landfall in northern SC. Still no agreement.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Curt on September 07, 2017, 04:39:24 AM
0z Euro and HMON destroy Miami. UKMET is further west in south Florida. The GFS and CMC are further east and have landfall in northern SC. Still no agreement.
While still hurricane force winds along the coast, the HWRF looks identical to the gefs and gfs- just pushing Irma far enough east to spare most of Florida a bad situation. It still comes ashore in central SC moving due north- looks more like a Cat 3 at lanfall there and weakening quickly. Basically it's a better of a bad scenario
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 07, 2017, 06:03:18 AM
06Z GFS now goes back to what it was showing earlier--a landfall in southern SC and the storm bending to the northwest over the mountains, dissipating over upper middle TN or southern KY.

Euro has been consistent showing this scenario. 

EDIT:  The Euro is ever so slightly west of the current GFS--bringing Irma in near the GA & SC border, and appears to take it northwest from there. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: cgauxknox on September 07, 2017, 06:05:43 AM
I've got the Weather Channel on getting all the updates this morning and here's a record that seems unbelievable; the previous record for a hurricane's longest time to maintain winds over 180 mph was 18 hours, Irma is at 42 hours and counting.  The longevity of this monster is mind boggling.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Charles L. on September 07, 2017, 06:48:13 AM
Could there be a worst case scenario for Miami? I am not buying the intensity forecast on this model, but mid 910s are possible from this thing at this hour imo.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 07, 2017, 07:57:56 AM
Nothing written in stone when it comes to Irma's future path, but rain amounts are increasing for our area, and pushing further west. (Map subject to change).

(http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1504788986)

Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: justinmundie on September 07, 2017, 08:27:41 AM
Could there be a worst case scenario for Miami? I am not buying the intensity forecast on this model, but mid 910s are possible from this thing at this hour imo.

(Attachment Link)

It would be worse if it actually made landfall. A near miss would be a huge relief to miami and that coastline. 40 miles is the difference in 100 mph winds and 160+ mph winds. The difference between the Euro and GFS solutions is a lot of lives and property.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 07, 2017, 08:40:46 AM
And to think we whine about a 50 mile shift for a snow storm. Can't imagine what it's like living in Florida right now.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Charles L. on September 07, 2017, 08:42:37 AM
And to think we whine about a 50 mile shift for a snow storm. Can't imagine what it's like living in Florida right now.

I was thinking the same thing. Haha
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: wfrogge on September 07, 2017, 08:57:48 AM
Could there be a worst case scenario for Miami? I am not buying the intensity forecast on this model, but mid 910s are possible from this thing at this hour imo.

(Attachment Link)

If the storm made landfall right south of Miami it would be worse
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: tls37075 on September 07, 2017, 09:00:19 AM
thoughts and prayers for the people of Barbuda.

"Nearly every building on Barbuda was damaged when the hurricane’s core crossed almost directly over the island early Wednesday and about 60 percent of its roughly 1,400 residents were left homeless, Antigua and Barbuda Prime Minister Gaston Browne told The Associated Press."

http://nbc4i.com/2017/09/07/hurricane-irma-brings-death-destruction-to-the-caribbean/
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Charles L. on September 07, 2017, 09:20:08 AM
If the storm made landfall right south of Miami it would be worse

By this models take, Miami is going to get the right front quadrant of a strong hurricane. The storm surge they would see would be horrible.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Beth on September 07, 2017, 10:11:22 AM
I have a friend who lives in a condo in Miami.  Her daughter and her daughter's fiance are going to stick it out in her condo with my friend.  She is more in midtown Miami but I am really worried about them. Govenor of Florida said that Irma is so big that it will effect West coast of Fla too!  No flights out of Fla and traffic is backing up and running out of gas at service stations. My prayers are for everyone in harms way.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Hank W on September 07, 2017, 10:26:08 AM
12z NAM made a big shift west from previous runs keeping it offshore. Now shows a nasty landfall just south of Miami.
[attachimg=2]
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 07, 2017, 10:27:56 AM
The NAM has been a way east outlier but the 12z is a direct hit for Miami. What a big western jump.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: dwagner88 on September 07, 2017, 10:52:04 AM
It would be worse if it actually made landfall. A near miss would be a huge relief to miami and that coastline. 40 miles is the difference in 100 mph winds and 160+ mph winds. The difference between the Euro and GFS solutions is a lot of lives and property.
It's worth mentioning that after Andrew, Miami-Dade introduced the strictest building codes in the nation. I believe roofs there must be safe to 160 mph. That's why everything down there has a tile roof. The storm surge from a direct hit will be the real catastrophe. I'm also very worried about extreme surge into the Carolinas. Due to the angle of approach and the shape of the coastline, water will be piling up against SC for a full day before the storm hits. Due to its large size, it will carry a category 5 level of surge for a time after it weakens just like Katrina did.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: NashRugger on September 07, 2017, 10:55:15 AM
Hurricane watches up for Antigua & Barbuda for Jose now and very well could see landfall again as a major.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: harlequin on September 07, 2017, 11:46:03 AM
Hurricane watches up for Antigua & Barbuda for Jose now and very well could see landfall again as a major.

I was coming to post this. Insanity.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: bluegrasspr on September 07, 2017, 12:01:29 PM
Barbuda is practically destroyed already. They can't take any more hurricanes. There had been mention of a possible evacuation of the island, although I don't know how they could accomplish that with the lack of communication and utilities (plus likely impassable roads) at this point. Prayers for those poor people.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Crockett on September 07, 2017, 12:05:12 PM
One thing that isn't really being mentioned is just how stretched thin recovery resources are at the moment. Between Harvey's aftermath in Texas and the wildfires our West, federal agencies don't have a lot of manpower to spare. I talked to our local National Park Service superintendent today and she said she literally doesn't have one person to send to Florida because everyone is still in Texas or on the wildfires.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: cgauxknox on September 07, 2017, 12:23:11 PM
One thing that isn't really being mentioned is just how stretched thin recovery resources are at the moment. Between Harvey's aftermath in Texas and the wildfires our West, federal agencies don't have a lot of manpower to spare. I talked to our local National Park Service superintendent today and she said she literally doesn't have one person to send to Florida because everyone is still in Texas or on the wildfires.

I've been thinking this week that all the coverage of Irma, while appropriate, has led the country to completely move on from Harvey and largely ignore what continues to be a massive recovery effort there.  If it wasn't for the pending landfall we would probably still be seeing regular updates on rescue and recovery efforts in Texas, but I would wager most Americans have completely forgotten about what's happening there.  Add to that the fact that many have donated what they can/will already and the fundraising for Irma, and potentially the second punch from Jose, is likely to not be very successful.  This may be the biggest natural disaster test our country has ever faced.  We also have some friends in CA with family in Montana and I agree the lack of fire coverage is astonishing; that's a massive effort as well.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 07, 2017, 01:15:40 PM
Took a quick glance at the new EURO still running--seems to be taking Irma into northern Cuba now?  Sure looks that way.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Charles L. on September 07, 2017, 01:16:03 PM
12z Euro shows a FL Keys landfall at ~924 mb. What a devastating run for southern FL.

Post Merge: September 07, 2017, 01:16:45 PM
Took a quick glance at the new EURO still running--seems to be taking Irma into northern Cuba now?  Sure looks that way.

Close to Cuba, but then turns north into the FL Keys.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: BRUCE on September 07, 2017, 01:39:14 PM
Right over Memphis. Hour 136 per Euro
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Curt on September 07, 2017, 01:43:24 PM
12z HWRF is about a worst case scenario for Miami and especially Fort Lauderdale and West Palm. It has it coming in shore right at Miami with the dreaded NE quadrant and 170mph wind gusts and surge into Fort Lauderdale. It's incredibly sobering to look at and maybe the one forecasters have been dreading in south Florida for years. Andrew at least didn't come shore directly into Miami.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 07, 2017, 02:17:29 PM
12z Euro shows a FL Keys landfall at ~924 mb. What a devastating run for southern FL.

Post Merge: September 07, 2017, 01:16:45 PM
Close to Cuba, but then turns north into the FL Keys.

Ah, ok.  I didn't have time to see the whole run.  But it has been the most consistent with this storm, so southern Florida looks to be in the crosshairs of a complete monster.  What a nightmare hurricane season we're having this year.  I noticed it's taking Irma even further west now than before after landfall.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: BRUCE on September 07, 2017, 02:40:33 PM
Ah, ok.  I didn't have time to see the whole run.  But it has been the most consistent with this storm, so southern Florida looks to be in the crosshairs of a complete monster.  What a nightmare hurricane season we're having this year.  I noticed it's taking Irma even further west now than before after landfall.
yeah pretty much parks it over West tn before washing out ....
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: DocB on September 07, 2017, 02:56:17 PM
12z HWRF is about a worst case scenario for Miami and especially Fort Lauderdale and West Palm. It has it coming in shore right at Miami with the dreaded NE quadrant and 170mph wind gusts and surge into Fort Lauderdale. It's incredibly sobering to look at and maybe the one forecasters have been dreading in south Florida for years. Andrew at least didn't come shore directly into Miami.
I lived in Ft Lauderdale during Andrew and the eye wobble had everyone on edge with that surge. It could have been so much worse with a 30 mi shift northward. With all the canals of Fort Lauderdale and no real way to stop the storm surge from coming inland, pretty much anything east of I-95 could see serious flooding.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: dwagner88 on September 07, 2017, 03:38:33 PM
The Euro has hurricane force wind gusts all the way to Atlanta. Gusts in the 45-60 mph range in east TN. Would be the highest impact tropical event wind wise in this area since Opal.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 07, 2017, 04:03:01 PM
The Euro has hurricane force wind gusts all the way to Atlanta. Gusts in the 45-60 mph range in east TN. Would be the highest impact tropical event wind wise in this area since Opal.

As Jim Cantore said back in '95 about Opal, "this is our hurricane too." 

https://youtu.be/wFTQtTSPJSo?t=5m23s    (not the best quality vid)

Thanks to the strength & speed of Irma (stronger than Opal), this is going to be a big problem for a lot of people in the southeast--not just on the coast. 

Post Merge: September 07, 2017, 04:10:48 PM
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL112017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/154730_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: cgauxknox on September 07, 2017, 04:16:41 PM
It's not often I see a tropical storm on the map over Knoxville...  This is getting wilder with every model run.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Charles L. on September 07, 2017, 05:08:00 PM
The 18z GFS has landfall just south of Miami, it then moves it northward from there.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Curt on September 07, 2017, 05:14:27 PM
The 18z GFS has landfall just south of Miami, it then moves it northward from there.

Only good news with several model trends today is no second landfall along the GA or SC coast. Its got it moving through FL and well inland from Atlanta to near Jackson TN.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 07, 2017, 05:18:27 PM
Making a bee-line through Georgia...moving slightly west of north.  Seems to have shifted slightly to the west.

With the recent Harvey rains over middle and western TN, if this thing does shift west and dump additional rain there--she could cause more significant flooding than we had with Harvey. 

Chattanooga also looks to be hit hard with heavy rain per the GFS.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: skillsweather on September 07, 2017, 05:28:34 PM
Making a bee-line through Georgia...moving slightly west of north.  Seems to have shifted slightly to the west.

With the recent Harvey rains over middle and western TN, if this thing does shift west and dump additional rain there--she could cause more significant flooding than we had with Harvey. 

Chattanooga also looks to be hit hard with heavy rain per the GFS.
Well good thing is Chattanooga got less then 1 inch from Harvey so they can take a lot of rain vs north west of Nashville and that area wont get much from this.

Plus wont the mountains ect keep most of the moisture from being pumped this far west and north. I mean we will get rains but nothing even close to what harvey gave us imo.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on September 07, 2017, 05:29:36 PM
Hey guys, had to come over to see how the model runs were going with Irma. Hope this thing will take a better track for folks in the keys and everywhere for that matter. Would love to see it at least not impact a highly populated area. God Bless everyone involved and look forward to hearing folks insight into where they think it is going to make landfall.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 07, 2017, 06:06:00 PM
I continue to pray for a different solution but it's not looking good for Florida. The forecast still has it a cat 1 in northern Georgia. That's after traveling the length of Florida and in Georgia. Let that sink in. Unreal.

12z EPS is zeroed in.

(http://i63.tinypic.com/30254qv.jpg)
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 07, 2017, 06:22:53 PM
Just finished a cruise to Bermuda and back this morning. Flying back from Baltimore tomorrow and hoping for no flight delays in the rush before Irma hits.

Very concerned for south Florida...



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 07, 2017, 06:55:58 PM
Just finished a cruise to Bermuda and back this morning. Flying back from Baltimore tomorrow and hoping for no flight delays in the rush before Irma hits.

Very concerned for south Florida...



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Safe travels home. . .
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Charles L. on September 07, 2017, 07:05:22 PM
18z GEFS tracks

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: schneitzeit on September 07, 2017, 07:21:27 PM
18z NAM projects Irma riding up Florida's Atlantic coast and into GA/SC.

RIP Miami, Savannah, Charleston and all of south Florida[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: SKEW-TIM on September 07, 2017, 07:27:46 PM
Hey guys.  I have not posted in almost 2 years.. since I am living in NC now.
I have been looking at the posts over the last few days... 

I am really interested to see what happens come Sunday afternoon and Monday.

I have a nephew who lives on James Island just outside Charleston and he is a aviation/weather geek.  He is on the fence about leaving..  based off the track of IRMA.

If it takes a more westerly track,  he is staying put but if it skirts up the east coast.. He is out! and will be heading up towards us in WNC.

I live in Hendersonville,, 30 miles south of Asheville and in the mountains.
Our local county manager has issued a State of Emergency as of Noon tomorrow .

I guess my main concern is our mountain streams are running high because of a rainy summer. not mention last fall we have alot of fires here.. which could mean some mudslides.
I am a little on edge... and hopeful this thing stays EAST of us .

Anxiously watching like you guys in TENN.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: dwagner88 on September 07, 2017, 07:33:34 PM
^^ if the Euro verifies, western NC will see very heavy orographically enhanced rainfall due to upslope flow. The wind will also be screaming at the higher elevations. The only positive for that area is the quick forward speed means a short duration event.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: schneitzeit on September 07, 2017, 07:40:04 PM
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/215356.shtml?gm_track#contents

Per NOAA, Irma will be a tropical storm directly over those of us in Knoxville. The mountains could help shield us, but based on the current track, Irma may cross the less-elevated peaks of southern Appalachia, doing little to choke the storm. This is getting interesting for East TN.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 07, 2017, 08:46:48 PM
[attach=1]
Potential storm surge flooding in South Florida.

I can't help but notice Homestead in the image. If you remember Andrew in '92, you'll remember that as the hardest hit area.

The winds of this alone will be devastating. But, that's a lot of real estate under water from storm surge in this image...

This is from the NHC site.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: WXHD on September 07, 2017, 08:58:28 PM
Hey guys.  I have not posted in almost 2 years.. since I am living in NC now.
I have been looking at the posts over the last few days... 

I am really interested to see what happens come Sunday afternoon and Monday.

I have a nephew who lives on James Island just outside Charleston and he is a aviation/weather geek.  He is on the fence about leaving..  based off the track of IRMA.

If it takes a more westerly track,  he is staying put but if it skirts up the east coast.. He is out! and will be heading up towards us in WNC.

I live in Hendersonville,, 30 miles south of Asheville and in the mountains.
Our local county manager has issued a State of Emergency as of Noon tomorrow .

I guess my main concern is our mountain streams are running high because of a rainy summer. not mention last fall we have alot of fires here.. which could mean some mudslides.
I am a little on edge... and hopeful this thing stays EAST of us .

Anxiously watching like you guys in TENN.

I'm going to use my 1000th post to say it's good to see you again.

We were in Hendersonville,NC this summer. It's one of our favorite places.

I hope other than Irma being all up in your business life is good.

Keep us posted(we love it)

Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 07, 2017, 11:35:00 PM
0z GFS is very close to the same as 18z That is three runs in a row almost identical. Meanwhile the NAM is OTS. WTH ??? I guess it could be right but I think they need to quit wasting money on that POS.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: harlequin on September 07, 2017, 11:47:22 PM
West TN had tropical storm winds with Harvey, but it was transitioning at that point. There were some power outages and trees down. Mountains might enhance wind out east though. 5-9" of rain was mostly fine over an afternoon and evening. I'm not sure of Irma's rain potential.

Those runs are devastating for south Florida, but could be actually more positive runs for the southeast. A track right up the Florida peninsula inland reduces raking the coast at a stronger stength and avoids a Charleston/Savannah landfall. That said, that track would be a memorable wind event for many inland people.

I've got friends and family in West Palm and Tampa evacuating, which is just so much real estate. It's a very frustrating angle for the storm to come in at.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: meso on September 08, 2017, 12:15:26 AM
Hey guys, just FYI - the NAM model was not designed for tropical cyclones. Therefore don't use it for intensity or track forecasting
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: skillsweather on September 08, 2017, 12:40:58 AM
NHC has its center cone right under Nashville at 8pm Tuesday. As a tropical depression. So that puts us in a better spot for rain as its further west of the mountains block on ocean pull. Hope it keeps this path vs the other paths tbh. Bring on the rain before dry fall starts.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Charles L. on September 08, 2017, 05:30:56 AM
Irma is so large that the wind and storm surge impacts from her are going to be extreme.  She has weakened a bit this morning, but she is still in the 920s and once she stabilizes again she could strengthen. I'm not sure if she can hit Cat 5 status again given her size, but we shall see.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 08, 2017, 05:51:59 AM
While horrible for Florida (and it would be better if Irma just turned and exited the stage), her traveling the length of the Sunshine State will probably spare TN what could be a very bad wind event.   It could still be rough here with winds 40-50 mph, but if Irma came in on the GA coast as a monster and raced into TN, we could easily have a weak hurricane on our hands rather than a tropical storm or depression. 

Rainfall amounts, while impressive, aren't extreme.  GFS currently shows 2-4 inches of rain over a big part of TN, and while there could be some flooding, more rain fell with Harvey in many areas.  More will probably fall in the upslope areas of North/South Carolina, and flooding could be worse there.

Prayers for Florida.  They really need them. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Curt on September 08, 2017, 08:46:09 AM
Slight adjustments on models overnight bring Irma into SW FL vs. directly into Miami. Still puts Miami in the NE part of the storm for awhile. Goes just west of Lake Okeechobee- could be really bad for those in communities on the north end of the lake. Lots of history to show its gone well out of its banks and flooded before.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: dwagner88 on September 08, 2017, 08:48:33 AM
While horrible for Florida (and it would be better if Irma just turned and exited the stage), her traveling the length of the Sunshine State will probably spare TN what could be a very bad wind event.   It could still be rough here with winds 40-50 mph, but if Irma came in on the GA coast as a monster and raced into TN, we could easily have a weak hurricane on our hands rather than a tropical storm or depression. 

Rainfall amounts, while impressive, aren't extreme.  GFS currently shows 2-4 inches of rain over a big part of TN, and while there could be some flooding, more rain fell with Harvey in many areas.  More will probably fall in the upslope areas of North/South Carolina, and flooding could be worse there.

Prayers for Florida.  They really need them.
We need to be very cautious about the possibility that this thing rides up the west coast of FL. If that happens it would likely be stronger when it gets here. Euro right now has hurricane force gusts making it all the way to Dalton. Hopefully that is overdone. We have a lot of weak trees around thanks to the drought.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 08, 2017, 10:00:43 AM
Not to be overlooked- Jose is now a Cat 4...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 08, 2017, 10:02:58 AM
Not to be overlooked- Jose is now a Cat 4...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Amazing--to have two hurricanes of this strength so close together.  This is more like a western Pacific typhoon season.

Post Merge: September 08, 2017, 10:09:13 AM
We need to be very cautious about the possibility that this thing rides up the west coast of FL. If that happens it would likely be stronger when it gets here. Euro right now has hurricane force gusts making it all the way to Dalton. Hopefully that is overdone. We have a lot of weak trees around thanks to the drought.

True--the exact path is still not set in stone.  And even if Irma is weakened by a long trek over Florida, the higher elevations will see higher winds than the lower elevations.  It will be bad up there with the weakened trees and burned hillsides. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 08, 2017, 10:18:44 AM
Storm surge forecast update... the orange areas indicate flooding in excess of 6 feet, while the red areas are forecast in excess of 9 feet deep of storm surge flooding.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 08, 2017, 10:31:24 AM
After such a long period of quiet for US landfalls, boy are we making up for it in a hurry this season.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: wfrogge on September 08, 2017, 10:50:44 AM
Not to be overlooked- Jose is now a Cat 4...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

No way (Jose)   ::whistling::
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: BRUCE on September 08, 2017, 12:05:16 PM
The West trend just keeps coming....
Title: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Curt on September 08, 2017, 12:33:18 PM
Just about every model has shifted landfall away from the east coast (Miami) and into the less populated SW corner of Fl. It's still a big deal but I would think that would spare Miami the worst.  The Keys on the other hand- not so lucky.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170908/ff37f99b19c4ec8420a92f9e04c6c52e.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 08, 2017, 12:48:16 PM
Just about every model has shifted landfall away from the east coast (Miami) and into the less populated SW corner of Fl. It's still a big deal but I would think that would spare Miami the worst.  The Keys on the other hand- not so lucky.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170908/ff37f99b19c4ec8420a92f9e04c6c52e.png)

If this trend doesn't stop, I begin to worry about Tampa or... this goes back over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 08, 2017, 12:50:59 PM
If this trend doesn't stop, I begin to worry about Tampa or... this goes back over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I was about to post the same thing. Looks like most models continue to inch west. The HMON goes up in the bend as Stong cat 4.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: harlequin on September 08, 2017, 12:55:45 PM
I was about to post the same thing. Looks like most models continue to inch east. The HMON goes up in the bend as Stong cat 4.

I know you meant west there.  ;) Yep, definitely slowly shifting west, but could easily still swing east by a few dozen miles and put the Gold Coast back in the catastrophic crosshairs. Almost looks like we can't rule out this scraping along the northern coast of Cuba either.

I'd imagine there will be a hard limit on how far west it can go.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Greyhound on September 08, 2017, 01:34:33 PM
Where can I/we see the HMON?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Charles L. on September 08, 2017, 02:02:54 PM
Greyhound, you can find it on Tropical Tidbits.

Can I just say how thankful I am for this board and the well mannered behavior you guys show for each event.
There are some forums out there that are awful to read because of the banter and terrible attitudes of some members.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 08, 2017, 02:07:30 PM
When looking at the satellite pics, it looks like Irma could scrape or go inland for a bit into Cuba.  That would have an impact on the strength when it comes into Florida.  Just depends on how far it goes and how long it's over land.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Charles L. on September 08, 2017, 02:11:04 PM
When looking at the satellite pics, it looks like Irma could scrape or go inland for a bit into Cuba.  That would have an impact on the strength when it comes into Florida.  Just depends on how far it goes and how long it's over land.

Even if she doesn't make landfall in Cuba, I would have to think her proximity to Cuba is going to either cause her to lose some strength or, at least, keep her at bay from much further strengthening.

I think if we are going to see any sizable increase in strength it will occur just before landfall in the FL Keys.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 08, 2017, 02:38:13 PM
Even if she doesn't make landfall in Cuba, I would have to think her proximity to Cuba is going to either cause her to lose some strength or, at least, keep her at bay from much further strengthening.

I think if we are going to see any sizable increase in strength it will occur just before landfall in the FL Keys.

Some slight disruption in the circulation should be already occurring as much of it is over Cuba.  Perhaps that's the only thing keeping it from getting stronger, currently; as there is absolutely no shear near this storm right now.

Amazing shot to see three storms on our side of the globe lined up like this. . .

 http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html)

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html)
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Curt on September 08, 2017, 02:44:01 PM
Even if she doesn't make landfall in Cuba, I would have to think her proximity to Cuba is going to either cause her to lose some strength or, at least, keep her at bay from much further strengthening.

I think if we are going to see any sizable increase in strength it will occur just before landfall in the FL Keys.

12Z euro does have it coming on shore in Cuba before it turns north to the Keys and Everglades of SW FL. Looks like by the time it reaches FL, its weakened considerably- prob due to exactly what you mentioned about land friction over Cuba. This would be the best news of the day for the US- not so much for Cuba
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: mamMATTus on September 08, 2017, 03:12:15 PM
Chattanooga is running low on gas due to evacuee traffic. I would expect Nashville and Knoxville might be facing the same thing soon potentially.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: StormNine on September 08, 2017, 03:14:55 PM
That would be great news for the USA if it runs deeper into Cuba. It would be absolutely devasting for Cuba itself. If it had to hit somewhere in FL hitting the southwest part as a weaken storm would be the best option. Inland hurricane winds would still be an issue as far north as Orlando with tropical storm winds into GA/East AL.

What is concerning about the westward trend is that it could end up in the eastern GOM with at least one side of the storm in the water (lessening the weakening) and at a very bad angle for Tampa Bay.   
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: wfrogge on September 08, 2017, 03:47:10 PM
That would be great news for the USA if it runs deeper into Cuba. It would be absolutely devasting for Cuba itself. If it had to hit somewhere in FL hitting the southwest part as a weaken storm would be the best option. Inland hurricane winds would still be an issue as far north as Orlando with tropical storm winds into GA/East AL.

What is concerning about the westward trend is that it could end up in the eastern GOM with at least one side of the storm in the water (lessening the weakening) and at a very bad angle for Tampa Bay.

The way I understand it with the storm rolling over swamp land it is pretty much like being over the open ocean. Not sure it matters .
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 08, 2017, 04:00:22 PM
NHC storm surge map showing 3-6 feet of storm surge in downtown Naples, FL, 9'+ down coast from there. On the other side on the southeast coast, another area of 9'+ of storm surge showing up east of Homestead, FL.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: skillsweather on September 08, 2017, 04:27:54 PM
How is this only going to give us 2 inch's of rain. Is it going to completely dissipate over us I thought these things carry rain long after its dead. Its going to literally sit over us with like less then 75mile movement in 1 day and drop 2 inchs but further south its going to race by like 350ish miles in 1 day and drop 10 inchs? How?
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Charles L. on September 08, 2017, 04:30:20 PM
Recent pass of Irma shows the pressure is dropping again. 922.6 extrapolated.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: StormNine on September 08, 2017, 06:13:50 PM
With the further west trends verifying in real time (example: Irma is going to go into Cuba) there is some good news and some bad news. 

Good News:
- Cuba could weaken Irma a bit especially if she lingers there. How much weakening is the question and I wonder if someone who knows more about hurricanes and how they react to Cuba could chime in.   
- The west trend would cause Miami and Fort Lauderdale to avoid the worst of the storm although power outages, some surge, and probably solid CAT 1-2 conditions would still be likely with a further west track. 

Bad News:
- This westward shift that brought Irma into Cuba now looks to track Irma right along the west coast of FL or even gets it at least partially into the Gulf of Mexico. This is bad due to having more time to regenerate its lost strength in the ocean and potentially puts Tampa in the dreaded front right quadrant of Irma and subjects it to wicked surge. 

Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 08, 2017, 07:19:17 PM

- Bad News:
- This westward shift that brought Irma into Cuba now looks to track Irma right along the west coast of FL or even gets it at least partially into the Gulf of Mexico. This is bad due to having more time to regenerate its lost strength in the ocean and potentially puts Tampa in the dreaded front right quadrant of Irma and subjects it to wicked surge.

With the hurricane traveling almost due west even at this hour, I have to wonder if the new model runs will shift her even further west, and keep it offshore from Florida altogether.  That would be very bad for the Panhandle or wherever Irma decides to actually make landfall.  It's already shifted quite a bit west from earlier--from the east coast of Florida to the west coast.  No reason it can't shift another 50 miles.  That alone would keep the eye over water as it heads north.   
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: BRUCE on September 08, 2017, 07:20:40 PM
she keeps trends like this.... she has a legitimate chance getting in the gulf of mexico ::coffee::  then the whole game changes
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 08, 2017, 07:32:38 PM
Latest IR satellite shows the cloud tops of Irma actually cooling--so she is, at the very least, maintaining her strength, or perhaps even strengthening despite her proximity to Cuba.  If she does weaken after a landfall in Cuba, one thing is certain--she won't have trouble getting her muscles back when she returns over the steamy Gulf water.

(http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif)
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: StormNine on September 08, 2017, 08:10:22 PM
With the current trends everyone as far west as Panama City needs to be prepared because now even an Apalachicola/Perry FL landfall is now in play. The projected track or anything slightly to the west of that track is horrible news for Tampa. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 08, 2017, 08:12:03 PM
So, here is about as doomsday of a statement that you will ever see out of a NWS office.

Tweeted from the NWS Key West...

Quote
NWS Key West @NWSKeyWest
·
3h
***THIS IS AS REAL AS IT GETS***

***NOWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SAFE***

***YOU STILL HAVE TIME TO EVACUATE***

Please RT.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: skillsweather on September 08, 2017, 08:21:58 PM
So, here is about as doomsday of a statement that you will ever see out of a NWS office.

Tweeted from the NWS Key West...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
At this point though where can they go? It is kind of to late aint it? Ain't most gas stations out of gas and all that obviously it would of been better to evacuate earlier but maybe some didnt because the track was further east and now its not.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 08, 2017, 08:26:07 PM
Web cams from bars in Key West are eerily deserted on a Friday night.  Hope places of business are still there after Irma.

 http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/green-parrot-bar/ (http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/green-parrot-bar/)

http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/hogs-breath-bar/ (http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/hogs-breath-bar/)

Usually the street behind the bar in the second camera is full of people on a Friday evening.  Totally deserted tonight.  I'd say most of Key West is a ghost town tonight.  At least it should be.

It will be interesting to see what these cameras show this time tomorrow, if they are still operational.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: skillsweather on September 08, 2017, 08:29:26 PM
Web cams from bars in Key West are eerily deserted on a Friday night.  Hope places of business are still there after Irma.

 http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/green-parrot-bar/ (http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/green-parrot-bar/)

http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/hogs-breath-bar/ (http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/hogs-breath-bar/)

Usually the street behind the bar in the second camera is full of people on a Friday evening.  Totally deserted tonight.  I'd say most of Key West is a ghost town tonight.  At least it should be.
What about looters before the storm that would be a problem i think also why in that bar is the tv on and everything on like its in operation hours but no one not even a bar tender is around. Shouldnt they save on electricity and just power down. That would be amazing to be in that bar during the hurricane though im not going to lie. I kind of wish i was in that bar right now.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Charles L. on September 08, 2017, 08:35:42 PM
What about looters before the storm that would be a problem i think also why in that bar is the tv on and everything on like its in operation hours but no one not even a bar tender is around. Shouldnt they save on electricity and just power down. That would be amazing to be in that bar during the hurricane though im not going to lie. I kind of wish i was in that bar right now.

 ??? ??? ???
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 08, 2017, 08:35:49 PM
What about looters before the storm that would be a problem i think also why in that bar is the tv on and everything on like its in operation hours but no one not even a bar tender is around. Shouldnt they save on electricity and just power down. That would be amazing to be in that bar during the hurricane though im not going to lie. I kind of wish i was in that bar right now.

Oh yeah? Let's see- first comes the storm surge when the water goes over your head if you're on ground level. Then, the 150mph+ winds batter anything above the flood water. I don't think you know what you're saying.

As for looting before the storm, I'm not sure it will matter much if there's even anything left.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 08, 2017, 08:38:54 PM
I kind of wish i was in that bar right now.

I'd stick to watching the cameras. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: skillsweather on September 08, 2017, 08:43:58 PM
Oh yeah? Let's see- first comes the storm surge when the water goes over your head if you're on ground level. Then, the 150mph+ winds batter anything above the flood water. I don't think you know what you're saying.

As for looting before the storm, I'm not sure it will matter much if there's even anything left.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Well yeah i guess your right in both regards lol. Was a premature thought on my end.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 08, 2017, 08:49:10 PM
Maybe it's just me, but the last few satellite pictures seem to show Irma wobble a bit to the southwest.  Probably just a short term wobble, if anything, but interesting nonetheless. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: WXHD on September 08, 2017, 09:03:25 PM
What about looters before the storm that would be a problem i think also why in that bar is the tv on and everything on like its in operation hours but no one not even a bar tender is around. Shouldnt they save on electricity and just power down. That would be amazing to be in that bar during the hurricane though im not going to lie. I kind of wish i was in that bar right now.

I'm down. Pre looting leaves less evidence than post looting.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: harlequin on September 08, 2017, 09:20:07 PM
Maybe it's just me, but the last few satellite pictures seem to show Irma wobble a bit to the southwest.  Probably just a short term wobble, if anything, but interesting nonetheless.

I see it. Trough time very soon though.

Boy, honestly don't know what to think at this point. I thought we'd have better clarity this evening, but I feel less certain than ever, although obviously feel more certain that the Gold Coast will avoid a catastrophic landfall. Then again, shifts even the day of occur regularly with hurricanes. Think about today, for example. I don't think northern Cuba was expecting a possible landfall/major eyewall hit (although it certainly fell within the cone). Charley also comes to mind as a storm that took a quick turn and surprised a lot of people.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Charles L. on September 08, 2017, 09:23:10 PM
Meteorology reminds me of Big Brother's motto...expect the unexpected.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on September 08, 2017, 09:32:02 PM
Maybe it's just me, but the last few satellite pictures seem to show Irma wobble a bit to the southwest.  Probably just a short term wobble, if anything, but interesting nonetheless.
It's funny you say that, I just looked at the radar before getting on here and was thinking the same thing. Looks like it's moving more west than north to me, but I don't pretend to have a clue where it is headed.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 08, 2017, 09:39:28 PM
I see it. Trough time very soon though.

Boy, honestly don't know what to think at this point. I thought we'd have better clarity this evening, but I feel less certain than ever, although obviously feel more certain that the Gold Coast will avoid a catastrophic landfall. Then again, shifts even the day of occur regularly with hurricanes. Think about today, for example. I don't think northern Cuba was expecting a possible landfall/major eyewall hit (although it certainly fell within the cone). Charley also comes to mind as a storm that took a quick turn and surprised a lot of people.

The cone comment is a good point, and I guess that's why they use it.  I wonder if by morning Irma has crossed Cuba completely--what then? 

Guess we'll find out tomorrow. ::sleeping::

Post Merge: September 08, 2017, 09:47:46 PM
Meteorology reminds me of Big Brother's motto...expect the unexpected.

That's one reason I love it as a hobby.  Always something new to learn, and never a dull moment. Well, except maybe in summer droughts.
Title: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 08, 2017, 09:48:37 PM
Oh... my... word... Jose is now a Cat 5.

...and about it hit some of the same islands hit by another Cat 5 just a few days ago.

Unprecedented.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: mamMATTus on September 08, 2017, 09:50:17 PM
I have a very good friend that decided to ride out the storm on Holmes Beach in Tampa. This was obviously before the last minute westward shift. I'm very worried to say the least.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 08, 2017, 09:53:17 PM
Oh... my... word... Jose is now a Cat 5.

...and about it hit some of the same islands hit by another Cat 5 just a few days ago.

Unprecedented.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Wow.   ::faint::
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 08, 2017, 09:58:38 PM
I created a separate thread for Jose.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: skillsweather on September 08, 2017, 09:59:58 PM
Ok the reason this was going to curve north was from something north i forgot what like a trough or whatever. Anyways what if it keeps going west enough it could miss that then it would move on its own basically into the gulf and who knows where at that point. I mean probably not but you'd think it cant keep going to much further west before whatever was going to pull it north will lose its grab.

Also do hurricanes move a certain way when strengthening? Maybe that's why its made more of a west south westerly wobble recently. Kind of like tornadoes when they strengthen and move east sharply.  Doesn't seem Cuba is effecting it from gaining strength to much either which is bad news for Florida.
Title: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 08, 2017, 10:00:50 PM
Oh- and Irma is back up to Category 5.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: ryandourius on September 08, 2017, 10:08:37 PM
Got family staying put in Tampa Bay. I would say that is a very bad call right about now. My aunt in Gibsonton, Florida was given a mandatory evac order and moved inland. This thing is going to do major damage along the West coast of Florida.
Title: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 08, 2017, 10:10:07 PM
Apologies on an incorrect post about Jose. He is "almost a 5" per the latest update. I misread the latest update caption thinking they had upgraded the storm.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: ryandourius on September 08, 2017, 10:17:00 PM
Apologies on an incorrect post about Jose. He is "almost a 5" per the latest update. I misread the latest update caption thinking they had upgraded the storm.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

No apologies needed. That heading is confusing  enough. Also, interesting to note this exact setup happened back in 2010 with three hurricanes at once in the Atlantic. What is more creepy is they also used the letters IJK.

Post Merge: September 08, 2017, 10:18:03 PM
(http://i67.tinypic.com/dfuj5.jpg)

Post Merge: September 08, 2017, 11:09:18 PM
Wobble to the NW it is looking like.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/wvv9kh.gif)


Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 09, 2017, 04:35:24 AM
Some of the warmest water Irma will have crossed so far and the warmest in the Gulf is on the west side of the peninsula north of the keys...
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 09, 2017, 05:26:49 AM
Unfortunately, Irma has begun her turn to the north this morning, as she is heading west northwest. Still a cat 4, but as Thundersnow posted, she'll be traveling over some bath water before making her landfall. Prayers for our neighbors in Florida.

Post Merge: September 09, 2017, 05:36:35 AM
One tiny bit of hope to keep Irma's strength in check, but not going to matter much at this point...

Quote
There is an opportunity for Irma to re-intensity as it crosses the
warm waters of the Florida Straits.  However, the large-scale
models forecast significant westerly shear developing at about
24 h, and it is unclear how much strengthening could occur before
then. 
Title: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 09, 2017, 06:23:12 AM
Irma had briefly reached back to 160mph Cat 5 strength just as she made landfall in Cuba, making it the first Cat 5 landfall Cuba has seen since 1924, I think the year was. She's backed off a little but not much considering still a 155 Cat 4.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 09, 2017, 06:45:20 AM
Irma looks to cross near Key West first, then head up the west coast of FL.  Still a cat 4, but does look a bit more ragged on satellite pics this morning.  Nevertheless, once away from Cuba, I'm afraid it will explode over the extremely warm water of the FL Straits.

Post Merge: September 09, 2017, 06:51:59 AM
Strangely enough, I'm still seeing people walk and drive around outside this bar in Key West.

http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/hogs-breath-bar/ (http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/hogs-breath-bar/)

Maybe it's business owners making last minute preparations before they leave.  Or maybe they aren't leaving.  Either way, I hope they really understand what's coming.


Post Merge: September 09, 2017, 06:54:24 AM
Just heard Irma is down to 130mph on TWC.  Heading west.  As long as it stays on the Cuba coast--little chance it will strengthen any time soon.  130mph is still a very strong, dangerous hurricane.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 09, 2017, 07:09:16 AM
With the west track it is going to have a lot more time to blow up again before US landfall. I hope the weakening does not make people let thier guard down.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 09, 2017, 07:19:30 AM
With the west track it is going to have a lot more time to blow up again before US landfall. I hope the weakening does not make people let thier guard down.

Exactly.  It may be weakened, but still expected to be a strong cat 4--possibly back up to 150-55 mph--once back over open water.  She is only weaker now due to interaction with land.  That won't be the case later today, and with her overall organization and structure still very much intact, there is nothing to prevent a quick intensification. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: BRUCE on September 09, 2017, 07:27:02 AM
also  further west she can get... the adverse efffects increase for most of tennessee also... as she makes run towards nw
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: dwagner88 on September 09, 2017, 07:27:28 AM
If it actually stays over Cuba for another 12 hours, it will be substantially weakened. Cuba is doing a number on it now.  Hopefully it won't have time to get its act together before it hits the keys.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: cgauxknox on September 09, 2017, 07:35:45 AM
I suspect that Irma will be the example for years to come of the need for people to have plans in place any time a tropical system is in play.  2 days ago we were concerned about this storm running up the east coast of FL and then landfalling as a major hurricane in Savannah or Charleston.  Now we're on the opposite coast of Florida and still don't know with certainty exactly when that hard right turn will happen or what that will mean in terms of impact.  At this point I honestly won't be surprised by anything in terms of the track over the next 24 hours because this storm insists on doing the unexpected.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: BRUCE on September 09, 2017, 07:36:06 AM
If it actually stays over Cuba for another 12 hours, it will be substantially weakened. Cuba is doing a number on it now.  Hopefully it won't have time to get its act together before it hits the keys.
wont be in cuba much longer... eye wall already starting come shore.... bath water ahead for this beast...
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: StormNine on September 09, 2017, 07:53:00 AM
Sometimes you will have a storm (both hurricane and winter storm) that will continue to trend a certain way to the very end and its final path will still end up being closer to the further end of that trend. I think Irma is going to be that type of storm.

At this time I expect Irma will find its way to the eastern Gulf of Mexico and back up some, but not all of its strength that it will lose in Cuba. There is some shear in that area but the bath water will make up for it.  The issue is going to be surge for the west coast of FL and Tampa Bay because of how Irma could move along or west of the west, placing them on the bad side for surge. 

Becuase of its size and amount of energy it has generated along its path even a 110-115MPH Irma could have the surge power of an average 140-150MPH storm.  Remember Ike was just a 110MPH storm at landfall but it produced a strong CAT 4 level surge across the upper TX coast and southwestern LA. 
 
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: snowdog on September 09, 2017, 08:42:41 AM
My in laws live east of Tampa Bay. Euro has them a bit spooked. Basically brings the eye on shore just south of Tampa and rides it right over the bay.

Post Merge: September 09, 2017, 08:44:38 AM
With the west track it is going to have a lot more time to blow up again before US landfall. I hope the weakening does not make people let thier guard down.

Miami has to be breathing a huge sigh of relief.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 09, 2017, 08:47:44 AM
As the morning progresses, Irma is certainly looking more & more haggard on satellite.  Going on appearance alone--she ain't what she used to be. 

(http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUIR.JPG)

Edit--I'm certainly not saying she isn't a force--and a very dangerous force to be reckoned with--I'm just saying Cuba really offered her some resistance, and it's showing.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: snowdog on September 09, 2017, 08:53:38 AM
As the morning progresses, Irma is certainly looking more & more haggard on satellite.  Going on appearance alone--she ain't what she used to be.

Noticing that. Cuba has done a number on her.  I don't know if even the bath water SST can put her back together in time before landfalling FL. This may have been the best possible outcome for FL. They may have dodged a HUGE bullet. Will be interesting to watch the next 24-36 hours to see if this once historic storm can regain some of her previous form.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 09, 2017, 08:58:48 AM
Noticing that. Cuba has done a number on her.  I don't know if even the bath water SST can put her back together in time before landfalling FL. This may have been the best possible outcome for FL. They may have dodged a HUGE bullet. Will be interesting to watch the next 24-36 hours to see if this once historic storm can regain some of her previous form.

Time is not on her side if she turns north and encounters more land in Florida, and shear further north.  But since she is still heading west, could she play a wild card and end up over the Gulf??   The cone is far enough west now that she could easily miss Florida altogether if she stays on the west end of it--as she has been doing for some time.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: BRUCE on September 09, 2017, 10:21:56 AM
Time is not on her side if she turns north and encounters more land in Florida, and shear further north.  But since she is still heading west, could she play a wild card and end up over the Gulf??   The cone is far enough west now that she could easily miss Florida altogether if she stays on the west end of it--as she has been doing for some time.
said it yesterday.... no reason to change my mind  with current trends... if i lived in mobile ala.   i be on alert even there.... each run slowly increases threat that far... intersting she what she does once over water...
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: wfrogge on September 09, 2017, 10:32:05 AM
Reed Timmer is in Key West.  ::wow::
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: dwagner88 on September 09, 2017, 11:47:45 AM
On a more local note, due to the strange angle of approach, the winds will be coming from a very unusual direction. Could put more stress on the trees. We are also going to see an extremely pronounced rain shadow in east TN. TRI may not see any rain at all.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: harlequin on September 09, 2017, 11:52:11 AM
She's pulled just off the coast enough to look a good bit better late this morning.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: BRUCE on September 09, 2017, 12:00:53 PM
She's pulled just off the coast enough to look a good bit better late this morning.
yeah... she is fixing to get her act together again....almost due west movement still....
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: dwagner88 on September 09, 2017, 02:10:47 PM
Go watch the IR loop over the last 4 hours. Turn to a news station, they all have it up in the corner. It's definitely bombing out again. It barely looked like a hurricane this morning, but it's obviously undergoing fairly rapid intensification right now. It will eventually encounter shear, but it may reach category 4 status again before landfall at this rate.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: WXHD on September 09, 2017, 02:34:53 PM
So, the ocean disappeared in Long Island Bahamas has no ocean. Irma sucked it up and will be part of the storm surge. Scary.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=na5s7SlE3bE
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 09, 2017, 02:44:04 PM
So, the ocean disappeared in Long Island Bahamas has no ocean. Irma sucked it up and will be part of the storm surge. Scary.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=na5s7SlE3bE

Oh...

I have no words.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: ryandourius on September 09, 2017, 03:08:34 PM
She appears to be done interacting with Cuba. According to some of the observations coming from the hurricane hunters, she is strengthening some.
(http://i68.tinypic.com/2yzixpv.gif)
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: dwagner88 on September 09, 2017, 03:26:23 PM
So, the ocean disappeared in Long Island Bahamas has no ocean. Irma sucked it up and will be part of the storm surge. Scary.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=na5s7SlE3bE
Wow. I feel bad for the keys. I've been watching a few live webcams on key west, some areas are already getting pretty high water. Now we know where it came from.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: wfrogge on September 09, 2017, 03:34:25 PM
So, the ocean disappeared in Long Island Bahamas has no ocean. Irma sucked it up and will be part of the storm surge. Scary.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=na5s7SlE3bE

Walking out there is just a tad dangerous. Would think the water will rush back in once the winds change
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 09, 2017, 03:46:03 PM
Picture on this camera starting to break up a bit (from Key West), but amazingly enough, I still see people occasionally walking by.  I assumed most of the Keys would've been evacuated by now.

http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/hogs-breath-bar/ (http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/hogs-breath-bar/)

Post Merge: September 09, 2017, 04:11:12 PM
On a more local note, due to the strange angle of approach, the winds will be coming from a very unusual direction. Could put more stress on the trees. We are also going to see an extremely pronounced rain shadow in east TN. TRI may not see any rain at all.

MRX has somewhat lowered the wind forecast, especially for areas north of I-40 due to the more westward movement expected. 

Quote
Winds: The highest winds look to occur 00z Tuesday through around
15z Tuesday. Valley locations south of I-40 could see winds from 20
to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Valley locations north of I-40
could see winds from 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
Elevations between 3000 and 5000 feet could see gusts between 40 and
50 mph while elevations above 5000 feet could see gusts up to 60
mph. There may also be a period where we see some mountain waves as
the 850mb flow becomes perpendicular to our eastern mountains. There
are still some uncertainties though with a mountain wave event
because soundings show us losing the necessary inversion before the
winds turn to allow for the preferred perpendicular component. If we
were to get mountain waves it would occur sometime between 06z
Tuesday and 15Z Tuesday for about a 6 hour period as this is when
the winds are ideal.

The rain shadow will greatly reduce rain amounts for most areas in far east TN.  Some areas near the foothills may only see a few tenths of rain. 

Quote
[As the event draws closer it
does look some areas along and near the foothills of our eastern
mountains may not end up with very much precip due to strong
downsloping winds. The past few runs of the GFS and NAM have picked
up on this and show little precip along the foothills north of I-40
and up into NETN and SWVA. These favored downsloping areas could see
as little as a few tenths of an inch of precip but we will have a
better idea over the next few model runs.
/quote]
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Curt on September 09, 2017, 04:39:35 PM
Picture on this camera starting to break up a bit (from Key West), but amazingly enough, I still see people occasionally walking by.  I assumed most of the Keys would've been evacuated by now.

http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/hogs-breath-bar/ (http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/hogs-breath-bar/)

Post Merge: September 09, 2017, 04:11:12 PM
MRX has somewhat lowered the wind forecast, especially for areas north of I-40 due to the more westward movement expected. 

The rain shadow will greatly reduce rain amounts for most areas in far east TN.  Some areas near the foothills may only see a few tenths of rain. 

Quote
[As the event draws closer it
does look some areas along and near the foothills of our eastern
mountains may not end up with very much precip due to strong
downsloping winds. The past few runs of the GFS and NAM have picked
up on this and show little precip along the foothills north of I-40
and up into NETN and SWVA. These favored downsloping areas could see
as little as a few tenths of an inch of precip but we will have a
better idea over the next few model runs.
/quote]

To be honest, I'm really glad about the winds there. I'm selling my property in Gatlinburg and don't need any damage. On another note, this is the 3rd tropical system here in Memphis. Just a couple of inches of rain here for this one, but man what a wet summer with these systems. I don't ever remember 3 systems here locally.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 09, 2017, 04:50:33 PM
To be honest, I'm really glad about the winds there. I'm selling my property in Gatlinburg and don't need any damage.

I'm thrilled for the westward movement, and a change in the forecast.  A few days ago, we had a tropical storm forecast to be right over Knoxville.  I can't imagine the damage that would cause in the mountains and even in the lower elevations. I live in a small, old cabin surrounded by large oak and hickory trees.  I'll gladly let this storm pass me by! 

Hope things don't get too rough for my friends in middle and western TN, though!


Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: mamMATTus on September 09, 2017, 04:51:19 PM
Latest forecast has a depression over west TN at 2pm Wednesday. I would assume tornado chances are there for middle TN then?
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: wfrogge on September 09, 2017, 05:46:26 PM
Direct TV has southern Florida TV on channel 361
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: BRUCE on September 09, 2017, 05:47:05 PM
the west trend seems to be holding quite nicely   afrer todays model runs... ::coffee:: GOM?
Title: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Curt on September 09, 2017, 05:52:47 PM
the west trend seems to be holding quite nicely   afrer todays model runs... ::coffee:: GOM?

It's still gaining more west than north latitude for now anyways. If it doesn't start going more northwest it may miss a direct to Key West.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 09, 2017, 05:58:25 PM
Even with the center of Irma forecast to come right into TN this upcoming week, OHX is unimpressed by either flooding or severe threats, per this afternoon's AFD. It looks like a cool, windy, showery pattern, maybe dropping a couple of inches of rain over a span of two days. The grids already forecast 35mph winds, which may be the most interesting part of this system for us... as a bonafide TD in our area, maybe even a minimal TS before as it begins to go extratropical by that point.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: harlequin on September 09, 2017, 06:19:56 PM
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL112017_wind_history+png/213811_wind_history.png)

A bit more context shows something of a turn towards the Florida mainland. Maybe?
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: StormNine on September 09, 2017, 06:20:55 PM
Peachtree City does have "Tropical Storm Conditions Possible" graphics all the way to the GA/TN border.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 09, 2017, 06:53:12 PM
Latest radar shown on TWC show the eye definitely moving more west than north for the time being.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: cgauxknox on September 09, 2017, 07:09:57 PM
The 8:00 update on TWC shows WNW at a crawling 7 mph, 120 mph but 935mb and dropping so strengthening has already started.  The puter bands coming into Miami already look pretty impressive and they're on the very extreme edges of the storm.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: mamMATTus on September 09, 2017, 07:58:34 PM
The turn to the north has started...FINALLY.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: StormNine on September 09, 2017, 08:02:12 PM
Remember Tampa Bay hasn't been impacted directly by a hurricane since 1921. A lot of people assume that because Tampa is in Florida that it is used to major hurricanes, but that is not the case
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Curt on September 09, 2017, 08:42:44 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170910/34d48d69084143b07b1b443b5547f0eb.jpg)

Getting healthier...
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: skillsweather on September 09, 2017, 11:31:51 PM
The storms track over us screams lots of rain yet models only showing 1-2 inchs of rain. She must lose a lot of moisture once she enters Tennessee or run into some very dry air.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Charles L. on September 10, 2017, 12:50:43 AM
With this storm slowing down she has the potential to really gain some strength over those warmer waters as she gets away from Cuba.

Post Merge: September 10, 2017, 12:54:46 AM
And this last pass shows an, extrapolated, pressure of 926.1.

Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 10, 2017, 05:22:54 AM
She's back up to cat 4


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 10, 2017, 05:35:51 AM
Key West may get in on the western eye wall. While that will be rough, it's a better scenario than being on the east side of the center.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: BRUCE on September 10, 2017, 05:44:23 AM
there is actually 3 counties in se middle tn in a tropical storm watch now... cant remember the storm nor the year... part of southern west tn was under a tropical storm watch... anyone remember that strom... please tell me... its on my mind :) edit... may have been dennis. few years ago
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: cgauxknox on September 10, 2017, 05:54:59 AM
I think, but am not positive, that we saw tropical storm warnings in West TN for Katrina.  I am wondering about the track as Irma comes out of Georgia.  The predictions have consistently shown the storm taking a hard left around North Georgia and swinging clear of East Tennessee.  What are the steering forces in place pushing such a radical change? 
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 10, 2017, 06:07:06 AM
Quote
Given current trends, some additional strengthening could occur
during the next several hours.  However, vertical wind shear is
increasing over Irma, and the shear is expected to become strong
within 24 h.  This, combined with land interaction, should cause at
least a steady weakening from 12-36 h.  The new intensity forecast
is slightly lower than that of the previous advisory at those
times, but it still calls for Irma to be a major hurricane at its
closest approach to the Tampa Bay area.  A faster weakening is
likely after Irma moves across the Florida Panhandle and starts to
merge with the aforementioned upper-level low, and the new forecast
follows the trend of the previous one in calling for the system to
decay to a remnant low by 72 h and to dissipate completely by 120 hr


Post Merge: September 10, 2017, 06:17:57 AM

I think, but am not positive, that we saw tropical storm warnings in West TN for Katrina.  I am wondering about the track as Irma comes out of Georgia.  The predictions have consistently shown the storm taking a hard left around North Georgia and swinging clear of East Tennessee.  What are the steering forces in place pushing such a radical change?


There is a moisture starved upper level low dropping in to the northwest of Irma and she will get caught up in its circulation and pulled to the northwest and eventually merge with it. If you look on a water vapor loop of the southeast US, you can see the circulation that will yank Irma to the left. Also notice the intrusion of dry air over the Gulf--part of that upper trough digging in.

Thankfully, there is a lot of cool, dry air over our area, so along with the shear, Irma will be starved of needed moisture and heat more quickly than Harvey or Katrina was when they moved north. That will cause a quick weakening and decay of Irma despite her current strength.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: StormNine on September 10, 2017, 07:17:24 AM
NWS Huntsville has a Tropical Storm Watch for their 3 Middle TN Counties. I believe the first time that occurred since Katrina. Could see some localized 45MPH+ wind gusts that could cause scattered power issues in the southern plateau area from say Van Buren/Eastern Warren County TN down to Monteagle and into NE AL/SE TN. Elsewhere I think 35-40MPH is the peak gust as Irma will meet its demise due to increasing shear/dry air.   
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 10, 2017, 07:35:32 AM
(http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv/4.jpg)

Good to see the dry air invading the Gulf, and will soon be entrained into Irma's circulation, if not already.  As she moves north, she will be fighting a battle with sheer and that dry air.  It's a blessing, because if a warm, humid air mass currently resided over the southeast, she could easily maintain a Cat 4 status up to the Florida panhandle.  Instead, she'll be gradually losing her strength the further north she goes.   
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 10, 2017, 07:37:53 AM
Eye is looking wobbly, and seems like dry air is wrapping in around the north side. She is about to emerge in the very warm water north of the keys, but we'll see as she's heading into a less favorable environment atmospherically.

EDIT: the eye is open on the south side.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: StormNine on September 10, 2017, 08:14:28 AM
Eye is looking wobbly, and seems like dry air is wrapping in around the north side. She is about to emerge in the very warm water north of the keys, but we'll see as she's heading into a less favorable environment atmospherically.

EDIT: the eye is open on the south side.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Surge is still going to be very bad in Tampa Bay and points along the west coast, but if dry air and interaction with FL can get it down to a CAT 2 when it goes around Tampa Bay then that would make a big difference as far as wind impacts go. Most buildings (with the exception of mobile homes and the weakly built) in that part of the world are built to take on a CAT 2 with only minor damage as long as a tree doesn't fall on it. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 10, 2017, 08:16:39 AM
Looks like the radar out of Key West has gone offline


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: dwagner88 on September 10, 2017, 08:42:46 AM
I'm a little surprised we don't have a FFW out for the same areas that mrx has placed under a wind advisory. I won't be surprised to see that wind advisory change to a high wind warning for some areas. 925 MB winds are around 60 mph at KCHA on the GFS.  Won't take much to bring those down, and the mountains will take that speed head on.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: wfrogge on September 10, 2017, 09:14:19 AM
For a good number of miles inland Florida is a "brown water" area. This will not really weaken until it gets north of Ft Myers (if landfall is here).
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 10, 2017, 09:22:57 AM
I'm a little surprised we don't have a FFW out for the same areas that mrx has placed under a wind advisory. I won't be surprised to see that wind advisory change to a high wind warning for some areas. 925 MB winds are around 60 mph at KCHA on the GFS.  Won't take much to bring those down, and the mountains will take that speed head on.

Yes, your part of eastern TN will see a great deal more rain than further northeast due to far less downsloping winds. 

Current GFS shows almost 2 inches of rain near me, but I find that hard to believe with the level of drying I'll see with the southeast winds coming down the mountain ranges. 

Post Merge: September 10, 2017, 09:54:53 AM
Irma has turned more north now.  Probably another landfall near Naples or Ft. Myers if she keeps trekking due north. 

Post Merge: September 10, 2017, 10:46:14 AM
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/ma/h5-loop-vis.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/ma/h5-loop-vis.html)

Cloud bands from Irma already rapidly approaching Tennessee (eastern). 
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: schneitzeit on September 10, 2017, 10:58:31 AM
From my location near downtown Knoxville (yes, I'm a UT student), I can see a small band of clouds extending from the northeast to the southwest. It might be the first band of Irma over us.

Pulled this image from earth.nullschool.net around 11:50 am EDT. She's getting north of the Keys. Best wishes for Florida right now.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: StormNine on September 10, 2017, 01:01:18 PM
Naples, FL is about to take it on the chin as the northeastern eyewall will move over or come very close to them.   
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 10, 2017, 01:21:17 PM
Naples, FL is about to take it on the chin as the northeastern eyewall will move over or come very close to them.
...with enhanced storm surge effect at that position I'm afraid.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on September 10, 2017, 01:21:48 PM
For sure whoever is on the northeastern side of the eyewall will get the worst of it. I think in the long run it is a good thing it makes landfall instead of skirting off the coast. Prayers for those in the path.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: harlequin on September 10, 2017, 01:24:30 PM
NWS Key West confirms 10' storm surge on Cudjoe Key, which I believe is where landfall was earlier this morning.

Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: ryandourius on September 10, 2017, 01:42:03 PM
Here is a live stream out of Marcos Island Florida. They set it up to show the surge as it moves in.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/hurricanetrack-com-storm-surge-cam
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: harlequin on September 10, 2017, 02:04:28 PM
Eyewall is quite violent on Brandon Clement's stream. Eye or wind switch can't be too far off. EDIT: Calming down now.

https://livestormchasing.com/stream/brandon.clement (https://livestormchasing.com/stream/brandon.clement)

Quote
WS Miami‏Verified account @NWSMiami  3m3 minutes ago
More
 130 mph wind gust just recorded at Marco Island Emergency Operations Center. #Irma

Yikes.

Post Merge: September 10, 2017, 03:48:34 PM
Quote
4:34 PM: #Naples Municipal Airport recorded a wind gust of 142 mph (WeatherBug mesonet NPLMP). #Irma
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: cgauxknox on September 10, 2017, 04:03:55 PM
Knox county is now under a wind advisory from 2PM Monday through 11AM Tuesday as whatever is left of Irma moves through.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: StormNine on September 10, 2017, 04:08:33 PM
Down to a CAT 2. Land interaction, dry air, and wind shear are doing work on it. That is also good news for Tampa Bay as it limits some of the non-surge impacts.  Surge will be an issue regardless of its strength in the area because of Irma's size and the potential for the better surge to coincide with high tide. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 10, 2017, 04:43:32 PM
Sky has went from clear blue this morning to cloudy as the first bands from Irma's moisture start to move in.  A thick altostratus layer has turned the sun dim. 

Looks like around .50-1.00" of rain could fall before downsloping winds dry us out here.  Areas west of Knoxville away from the mountains will see the most.  I'm betting on .25-.50 where I live.  Monday night into Tuesday look like the two time periods when the wind will be at it's worst, perhaps gusting to 40mph in valley locations.  My local point and click forecast has gusts to 25mph.  Hoping for minimal damage, but the length of the wind event alone could fell trees and cause power outages.  Getting the flashlights ready.


Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: dwagner88 on September 10, 2017, 05:19:09 PM
Tropical storm watches all the way to the TN border now. Just a few miles south of here. Not sure I've seen that before.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: mempho on September 10, 2017, 05:41:32 PM
I swear - can we get just one here as a Tropical Storm.  I try not to wish the there things because of how destructive they are down south but if it's going to do it, let's get it here as a tropical storm. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: mempho on September 10, 2017, 05:44:33 PM
Tropical storm watches all the way to the TN border now. Just a few miles south of here. Not sure I've seen that before.
Memphis had a tropical storm warning during Katrina (and it did verify).

Also, Opal made it past Chattanooga as a strong tropical storm (was 70 mph in Atlanta).

Now, there are 3 counties in TN under tropical storm watch. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: dwagner88 on September 10, 2017, 05:56:12 PM
Memphis had a tropical storm warning during Katrina (and it did verify).

Also, Opal made it past Chattanooga as a strong tropical storm (was 70 mph in Atlanta).

Now, there are 3 counties in TN under tropical storm watch. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
I do remember Opal from when I was young. Missed a day of school and lost 2 trees in our yard. I was too young to know what a tropical storm warning was though.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: harlequin on September 10, 2017, 07:01:46 PM
Curt pointed this out, but pretty unusual to have 3 decaying tropical systems track over W/SW TN in one season. Ceiling seems much lower at the moment than w/ Harvey though.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 10, 2017, 08:08:16 PM
Quote
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Nashville TN
726 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT
TUESDAY...

.Strong winds associated with Hurricane Irma will occur as it
approaches Middle Tennessee on Monday night. Even though Irma
will weaken from a tropical storm to a tropical depression as it
approaches Middle Tennessee, sustained winds of 15 to 35 mph with
gusts 45 to 50 mph can be expected across Middle Tennessee on
Monday night.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: mempho on September 10, 2017, 08:14:29 PM
Ok...I'm joining Dyersburg Weather to say...**** I'm old..   ::rofl::
I'm right there with you on that!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: mempho on September 10, 2017, 09:39:50 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170911/eec6f375a10169c2ec9ee088d0d8498a.jpg)



Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 10, 2017, 10:13:05 PM
Manatees got stranded in the bay when the water was pulled/blown (whatever happened there) out:

http://www.khq.com/story/36332712/2-manatees-stranded-as-irma-sucks-water-from-sarasota-bay


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: ryandourius on September 10, 2017, 11:30:35 PM
I for one am very disappointed in ALL of the models for this hurricane. They say it might come to TN, but watch it end up in Virginia or some where else.   ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 11, 2017, 05:47:07 AM
Per MRX:

Quote
Easterly low level winds north of the circulation will increase
sharply around midday today - up to 55 kts at 850 mb at 00Z -
creating a downslope flow that will likely create a precip shadow
for the northern and central TN Valley into the evening. The main
change from previous forecasts will be to lower QPF amounts in
that area. Southern Valley locations are still expected to have
storm total amounts of 2-2.5 inches. With a duration of 12 hours
or more, river levels and soil moisture should be able to handle
this amount without widespread flooding problems, although
localized heavier amounts are possible and will need to be
monitored. The Wind Advisory will not be changed, although the
northern and central Valley, SW VA, and northern Plateau will
likely be on the low end of Advisory criteria (26 mph sustained or
40 mph gust). Dry air wrapping around the circulation and a
continued downslope flow on Tuesday will result in lowering rain
chances and much lighter precip for all areas.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: dwagner88 on September 11, 2017, 07:57:12 AM
MRX has upped my winds to 30-35 sustained gusts to 50. That's awfully close to full blown (haha) tropical storm status. TS warnings now out in the North GA border counties.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 11, 2017, 08:26:06 AM
It will be interesting to see just how much of Irma's moisture can make it over the Southern Appalachians into the foothills of eastern Tennessee.  Right now, they are effectively blocking the moisture, but the main surge is still coming up from the south.  The wind is already picking up, gusting to near 20 mph.  The sky is very dark and heavy.  If it was January, I'd say it's a snow sky.  With the stiff wind and temperatures only in the mid-50's--it certainly feels wintry outside. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: dwagner88 on September 11, 2017, 09:19:17 AM
It will be interesting to see just how much of Irma's moisture can make it over the Southern Appalachians into the foothills of eastern Tennessee.  Right now, they are effectively blocking the moisture, but the main surge is still coming up from the south.  The wind is already picking up, gusting to near 20 mph.  The sky is very dark and heavy.  If it was January, I'd say it's a snow sky.  With the stiff wind and temperatures only in the mid-50's--it certainly feels wintry outside.
I'll vouch for wintry. Just got to my job site in Ducktown. It's 51, raining, and breezy. Latest GFS ups the rain a bit for this area and decreases the wind somewhat. 925 levels are below 50 mph now, yesterday they were pushing 60.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 11, 2017, 09:46:45 AM
I'll vouch for wintry. Just got to my job site in Ducktown. It's 51, raining, and breezy. Latest GFS ups the rain a bit for this area and decreases the wind somewhat. 925 levels are below 50 mph now, yesterday they were pushing 60.

Perfect day for a big pot of

(http://tse1.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.uY24_T04Ei-KqqKgUMO1QwEsEj&w=217&h=201&c=7&qlt=90&o=4&pid=1.7)

Current GFS shows nearly an inch up here now, but I have my doubts with so much downsloping taking place.  Guess we'll see.  Your area should see the lion's share of rain in East TN. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: cgauxknox on September 11, 2017, 09:51:34 AM
Perfect day for a big pot of

(http://tse1.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.uY24_T04Ei-KqqKgUMO1QwEsEj&w=217&h=201&c=7&qlt=90&o=4&pid=1.7)

Pork roast with apples and onions served on a bed of wild rice for us tonight.  I'm breaking out the fall recipes that usually don't happen until October or November  ::yum::
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 11, 2017, 10:01:59 AM
I come here for updates, and y'all are just making me hungry.  ::yum::

Overcast and light winds here in Brentwood, TN right now, but expect winds to pick up this afternoon. Should get gusty here tonight.

Tropical systems passing this area are always an interesting novelty.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 11, 2017, 10:25:04 AM
I come here for updates, and y'all are just making me hungry.  ::yum::


Like football and food--weather and food go hand-in-hand.   ;D ::bacon::

Post Merge: September 11, 2017, 10:48:29 AM
Wind continues to increase here in the foothills.  Probably gusting well over 20 mph at times.

Rain also making it over the crest of the Smokies now.  The big surge of moisture from Irma winning over the downsloping winds.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: dwagner88 on September 11, 2017, 03:55:49 PM
Wind has really picked up in the last half hour or so. Probably gusting to around 35 maybe 40. Rain is getting heavier too.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 11, 2017, 04:30:06 PM
Looks like outer edge of rain shield is moving into the Nashville area just in time for rush hour. Little bit of a breeze outside the office window here in Brentwood, but nothing substantial yet.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 11, 2017, 05:20:03 PM
A good breeze blowing here, but nothing extraordinary, and very little rain has actually fallen today.  It was more of a mist with an occasional shower.  All the mighty moisture and muscle of Irma stopped in it's tracks by the Greater Smoky Mountains. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: WXHD on September 11, 2017, 05:54:36 PM
OEM said Nashville needs to shelter in place at 6pm. This will be interesting.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: dwagner88 on September 11, 2017, 06:05:31 PM
KCHA officially gusted to 40 for the first time at n the last hour. Sustained at 25.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: mamMATTus on September 11, 2017, 06:58:20 PM
I was expecting a lot gustier winds at this point here in Nashville.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: dwagner88 on September 11, 2017, 07:05:58 PM
Power is flickering. Lost my fiber internet also. Posting from my phone.
Now sustained 32 gust 43 at KCHA. Close to TS status.
EDIT: just had a gust that shook the house. Had to be close to 50
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: harlequin on September 11, 2017, 07:55:11 PM
 :( More of a Harvey post, but I mentioned at one point that my coworker/close friend's grandmother had to be rescued in Houston. Their home ended up with water to about 6" from the top of the ceiling, so clearly pretty damaged. Anyway, her grandmother went into cardiac arrest and passed today. Obviously you can never really know, but the family considers the stress of the storm to have played a role. These kind of disasters can have health consequences that outlive the initial disaster.

Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 11, 2017, 08:43:21 PM
:( More of a Harvey post, but I mentioned at one point that my coworker/close friend's grandmother had to be rescued in Houston. Their home ended up with water to about 6" from the top of the ceiling, so clearly pretty damaged. Anyway, her grandmother went into cardiac arrest and passed today. Obviously you can never really know, but the family considers the stress of the storm to have played a role. These kind of disasters can have health consequences that outlive the initial disaster.

Sorry to hear that man.   :(  I'm sure the stress/fear of the situation didn't help matters. 



Post Merge: September 11, 2017, 08:46:21 PM
Power is flickering. Lost my fiber internet also. Posting from my phone.
Now sustained 32 gust 43 at KCHA. Close to TS status.
EDIT: just had a gust that shook the house. Had to be close to 50

Wind has really picked up here in the last hour.  Very little rain to speak of with the southeast drying everything out, but that wind is really roaring through the trees around the house.  Hope the power stays on. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Uncle Nasty on September 11, 2017, 10:35:56 PM
Power is flickering. Lost my fiber internet also. Posting from my phone.
Now sustained 32 gust 43 at KCHA. Close to TS status.
EDIT: just had a gust that shook the house. Had to be close to 50

Working nights this week at VW and haven't been able to see anything. We live in Ooltewah and the wife said it was rocking pretty good. That was around 8 or 8:30. I'm anxious to see how many trees will be down in the area at daylight. Did you have any damage in E. Brainerd?
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 12, 2017, 05:11:01 AM
Irma was a non-event for the most part here.  Woke up to .10" of rain, and just a slight breeze.  If we reached wind advisory criteria here, we did so only briefly.  Topography beats hurricane.

Quote
The higher resolution mesoscale models do a better job of showing how
important that expanse of higher terrain along the Tennessee and
North Carolina border is in limiting rainfall intensity across
much of the Great Valley when a strong easterly flow is present in
the region. Irma will provide those easterly winds today
generating more warming and drying in the first few thousand feet
off the surface. Therefore, tried to scale back pops a bit for
showers today from Central East Tennessee northeast through the
Tri-cities area. Maintained likely or categorical pops on higher
terrain features and across much of Southeast Tennessee and
Southwest North Carolina where upslope flow, and less mountainous
terrain upstream won`t allow for the adiabatic warming seen
farther north through the Great Valley.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: dwagner88 on September 12, 2017, 07:28:02 AM
Working nights this week at VW and haven't been able to see anything. We live in Ooltewah and the wife said it was rocking pretty good. That was around 8 or 8:30. I'm anxious to see how many trees will be down in the area at daylight. Did you have any damage in E. Brainerd?
No damage thankfully. Just some limbs down. I never fully lost power either, just some flickering. Way to go EPB smartgrid!
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 12, 2017, 07:31:41 AM
Winds fizzled for the most part by the time she moved into this part of the state.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JHart on September 12, 2017, 09:34:41 AM
We picked up 0.61 inch of rain and experienced a few wind gusts close to 30 mph between 10:00 PM and midnight last night.  All in all, Irma managed to kick over a few potted plants and spook the cats. The ole' gray mare just ain't what she used to be.  Good riddance, honey.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: CT_Yankee on September 12, 2017, 10:02:50 AM
This is the first time that I can recall a tropical system taking this track into TN, so I wasn't really sure what to expect.  It definitely was underwhelming compared to systems that took the "shortcut" into TN like Ivan or Katrina.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: cgauxknox on September 12, 2017, 10:18:31 AM
I've been in touch today with a friend in St. Marys, GA, which is across the river from Jacksonville, FL.  Their waterfront is completely demolished.  The docks have been destroyed, boats are missing or grounded well inshore, even the commercial ferry that provides service to Cumberland Island National Seashore was broken up with parts of the vessel spread throughout downtown.  Keep in mind that this town is on the opposite coast from Irma and just north of Florida and still saw this much damage.  I don't think the media reports are really conveying just how much damage has been done by Irma or the scale of the rebuilding effort that is really ahead of us.  ::candle::
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 12, 2017, 10:19:01 AM
We picked up 0.61 inch of rain and experienced a few wind gusts close to 30 mph between 10:00 PM and midnight last night.  All in all, Irma managed to kick over a few potted plants and spook the cats. The ole' gray mare just ain't what she used to be.  Good riddance, honey.

WE WILL REBUILD

(http://i0.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/016/206/rebuild.png)

 ;)

Post Merge: September 12, 2017, 10:24:39 AM
I've been in touch today with a friend in St. Marys, GA, which is across the river from Jacksonville, FL.  Their waterfront is completely demolished.  The docks have been destroyed, boats are missing or grounded well inshore, even the commercial ferry that provides service to Cumberland Island National Seashore was broken up with parts of the vessel spread throughout downtown.  Keep in mind that this town is on the opposite coast from Irma and just north of Florida and still saw this much damage.  I don't think the media reports are really conveying just how much damage has been done by Irma or the scale of the rebuilding effort that is really ahead of us.  ::candle::

While early reports at landfall seemed that effects weren't as severe as feared, it does seem like a widespread damaging wind event did unfold and a pretty bad storm surge event on the southeast coast did cause worse effects in many areas.

Post Merge: September 12, 2017, 10:42:22 AM
Report- FEMA says 25% of homes on the Florida Keys have been destroyed:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/12/us/irma-damage-aftermath/index.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 12, 2017, 03:31:40 PM
WE WILL REBUILD

(http://i0.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/016/206/rebuild.png)

 ;)


Now be honest--you kicked that chair over didn't you?   ;D ;)
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: skillsweather on September 12, 2017, 03:46:31 PM
I love how its sunny in that pic like even more of a joke about this storm for us. it completely fell apart. I was so sure that the models was under doing the precip until I heard about that dry pressure that was going to drain Irma of the moisture but I still didnt think it would do it to this degree. Still nether the less Irma was an impressive storm at least at one point haha
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 12, 2017, 05:22:36 PM
The only reason I can figure for Irma's quick demise compared to other hurricanes is she moved into an environment completely hostile to a tropical system.  Cool, dry and very stable air covered most of the eastern U.S., including the southeast.  Once over land, she quickly ran out of any sort of fuel a hurricane needs to thrive--moisture, heat, & instability.   All that was left was the big slug of moisture that she brought with her, but that quickly rained itself out, especially since a big part of her circulation ran into and through the Southern Appalachians.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: schneitzeit on September 12, 2017, 10:46:13 PM
I live in the penthouse of my apt (about 150 ft above ground) and the winds were howling last night. Overall a complete bust for east TN compared to what we were expecting 5 days in advance. Even more of a bust than a winter system producing .5" of snow compared to a 3" GFS prediction  ::rofl::

Which is fine... the less I have to walk to class and work in bad weather, the happier I am
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: Thundersnow on September 13, 2017, 03:27:25 PM
Irma's festering corpse continues to drop light rain and drizzle over the area. This weekend looks to feel like summer again in the mid 80s.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: JayCee on September 17, 2017, 07:10:40 AM
Florida Keys are re-opening to residents today.  It will take a long time for that area hit by Irma to get back to normal. Its reported that 90% of the homes and businesses are damaged or destroyed, and considering the Key's economy is tourism based, its going to be especially hard on businesses there.
Title: Re: Hurricane Irma
Post by: DocB on September 19, 2017, 06:16:54 PM
NOAA has posted all it's aerial photos of Irma (https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/irma/index.html), from the length of the Keys and impacted areas along the Florida west coast.

Quote
NOAA has an online interactive viewer (https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/irma/index.html) where you can review the images snapped on multiple passes through the Keys; you can also toggle back to baseline imagery captured before Irma’s arrival to contrast the scenery before and after impact.