Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => General Weather => Topic started by: Curt on September 01, 2017, 12:29:17 PM

Title: Fall 2017
Post by: Curt on September 01, 2017, 12:29:17 PM
Meteorological fall starts today. Post away.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: cgauxknox on September 01, 2017, 03:48:56 PM
I went out to the woodshed and split some kindling with the wind kicking up this afternoon, and then when the rain came in and drove me inside went into my workshop to sharpen my hatchet, during which the local country station played Rocky Top.  It's fall y'all!   ::yum::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: snowdog on September 01, 2017, 05:19:59 PM
Call me crazy, but I love days like today. Light rain, windy, cooler. Feels like fall out there.  ::guitar::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 01, 2017, 05:45:26 PM
The weather looks awesome for the first week of fall. Can't believe it's gonna be in the upper 70s next weekend for football. Raider Nation is coming to Nashville and we bringing  >:D with us.  ::pirate::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on September 01, 2017, 08:02:32 PM
Call me crazy, but I love days like today. Light rain, windy, cooler. Feels like fall out there.  ::guitar::
crazy   you said so.... ::rofl:: .... feels like football weather just in time also... ::guitar::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 02, 2017, 06:42:29 AM
Feels like an October morning with temps in the upper 50's, a stiff breeze blowing, and a light mist falling.  It's the kind of morning that lets you know seasons are changing, and right on time as September begins.  Sure beats last year's heat that lasted into November. 

Despite the dryness continuing here, not concerned about drought getting a foothold like last year.  Pattern looks much more active than last fall, and a good .75-1.00" looks likely for this area next week.  Temperatures late week are unbelievable for early September--lower 70's.  I'm on board. 

Happy Labor Day weekend, folks. 


Post Merge: September 02, 2017, 12:37:37 PM
Wow...talk about a change of seasons!  Barely 60, and light rain falling most of the day with a strong breeze.   It's sweatshirt weather over here.  Not the best for Labor Day weekend, but I've got my grill fired up and we're enjoying every minute of it.  A covered porch is a joy forever!

Any misspellings are due to friends spiking the punch. (that's my story--and I'm sticking to it)  ;D
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 03, 2017, 07:42:02 AM
Absolutely beautiful morning here, after a quarter inch of rain fell yesterday (which was actually the most that fell in a 24hr period here with Harvey).  However, local TDOT cameras show some very dense, pea soup fog in some locations.  Visibility is zero in many areas.   
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: cgauxknox on September 04, 2017, 07:07:13 AM
After tomorrow the extended forecasts are showing Knoxville staying with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s, pretty much absolutely perfect fall weather in September.  Next weekend may be the first batch of pumpkin custard and ginger snaps of the year!
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: schneitzeit on September 04, 2017, 10:18:41 AM
After tomorrow the extended forecasts are showing Knoxville staying with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s, pretty much absolutely perfect fall weather in September.  Next weekend may be the first batch of pumpkin custard and ginger snaps of the year!

We might dip into the upper 40s this week. Feels like football weather  ::flag::
Speaking of the upper 40s, that might be the amount of scoring UT's defense will allow against Georgia Tech tonight  ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Crockett on September 04, 2017, 02:16:34 PM
2015 was the wettest year on record in Oneida (records only date back to ~1950, so take it for what it's worth), with 72.4" of rainfall.

2016 was not the driest year on record but it was close. We wound up with 46" of rainfall, thanks to a wet December, beat out the old record of 41.6" (1959). It was the driest year-to-date until the start of December.

Now we're back on the plus side in 2017, with a rainfall surplus of about 10" as of Sept. 1. That's not quite as much as 2015, but we're a lot closer to 2015's January-August totals (-6") than we are to 1959's (-18"). Normal is just an average of extremes, but it seems here lately all we have are extremes.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 04, 2017, 02:29:12 PM
After a good rain tomorrow evening into Wednesday morning, we have a forecast high of 71 on Thursday and a low of 50 on the local point and click forecast.  Perfection. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: dwagner88 on September 04, 2017, 02:48:57 PM
2015 was the wettest year on record in Oneida (records only date back to ~1950, so take it for what it's worth), with 72.4" of rainfall.

2016 was not the driest year on record but it was close. We wound up with 46" of rainfall, thanks to a wet December, beat out the old record of 41.6" (1959). It was the driest year-to-date until the start of December.

Now we're back on the plus side in 2017, with a rainfall surplus of about 10" as of Sept. 1. That's not quite as much as 2015, but we're a lot closer to 2015's January-August totals (-6") than we are to 1959's (-18"). Normal is just an average of extremes, but it seems here lately all we have are extremes.
Yep. After getting just over 2" of rain from Harvey, I'm getting really close to 50" on the year already.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 04, 2017, 03:22:28 PM
Yep. After getting just over 2" of rain from Harvey, I'm getting really close to 50" on the year already.

I'm not sure where "normal" lies here where I live, but I'm at 35" for the year.  So, while other areas of the state have had too much rain, we're probably around where we should be or slightly below.  We only had about a half inch with Harvey thanks to downsloping southeast winds over the Smokies. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: dwagner88 on September 06, 2017, 07:41:04 AM
Just wanted to report that it is 58 and raining in Ducktown this morning. Feels like November.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: cgauxknox on September 06, 2017, 04:04:58 PM
In non-hurricane news they're predicting "near record lows" in Knoxville tonight and tomorrow night at 49 and 50 degrees respectively.  I'm loving the early taste of fall and chilly air.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 06, 2017, 04:36:50 PM
In non-hurricane news they're predicting "near record lows" in Knoxville tonight and tomorrow night at 49 and 50 degrees respectively.  I'm loving the early taste of fall and chilly air.

This is so much better than last year.  I've got all the windows open, there is no choking smoke filling the air, and no need for the air conditioner.  Hope it lasts all month long. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: harlequin on September 06, 2017, 10:17:03 PM
I don't know if I've ever seen such comfortable weather forecast this early in September here. Temps below 80, low humidity, and no chances of rain. We're frequently still in the 90s then.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 07, 2017, 05:51:21 AM
Absolutely perfect October morning with temps in the upper 40's.  O wait, it's early September.  My bad.

Anyone else catch a glimpse of the full moon?  It was super bright last night. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: cgauxknox on September 07, 2017, 06:03:45 AM
Absolutely perfect October morning with temps in the upper 40's.  O wait, it's early September.  My bad.

Anyone else catch a glimpse of the full moon?  It was super bright last night.

It doesn't get much better than this!  Cool and crisp in the valley this morning, heavy dew, and that scent to the air that you only get in the fall.  I wonder which of our friends will have the first bonfire this weekend...
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 07, 2017, 06:16:32 AM
I don't know if I've ever seen such comfortable weather forecast this early in September here. Temps below 80, low humidity, and no chances of rain. We're frequently still in the 90s then.

Just like summer, the 2017 autumn is the complete opposite of last year--at least so far.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JHart on September 07, 2017, 07:44:56 AM
The temperature out here dropped briefly to 44.8F just before 5:00 AM after spending several hours in the upper 40's.  Remarkable for early September ...  ::cold::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Coach B on September 07, 2017, 08:04:07 AM
It was a morning for the UHI effect to be evident in full force. Virtually the entire state outside of the cities was in the 40s. However, all four major cities remained in the 50s on the hourly reports.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 07, 2017, 04:08:16 PM
A perfect October morning was followed by a perfect October day.  Just in September. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: schneitzeit on September 07, 2017, 07:27:30 PM
Calm before the storm...
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 07, 2017, 11:48:33 PM
It was a crisp 47 here this morning. What lovely weather for early September.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 09, 2017, 08:45:32 AM
It is a picture perfect fall-like morning.  Coffee, hammock swing, and rustling leaves in the cool morning breeze--couldn't be much better.   
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: schneitzeit on September 11, 2017, 09:35:18 PM
Could someone explain why the NOAA temperature outlooks are (usually) faulty? I could have sworn I checked the outlook for this month earlier in the summer and NOAA had the continental U.S. marked with above normal temps.

Anyways, here's the map now, which looks much closer to what we've experienced. Yet they've got the 1-month lead for OND with the same above normal temp coverage across the U.S. What's the reason for this?
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on September 12, 2017, 04:31:11 AM
Could someone explain why the NOAA temperature outlooks are (usually) faulty? I could have sworn I checked the outlook for this month earlier in the summer and NOAA had the continental U.S. marked with above normal temps.

Anyways, here's the map now, which looks much closer to what we've experienced. Yet they've got the 1-month lead for OND with the same above normal temp coverage across the U.S. What's the reason for this?
(Attachment Link)
because they already know that temps will be above average here this winter.... :D
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on September 13, 2017, 04:36:33 AM
long range models indicating ::blowtorch::  see if it holds
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 13, 2017, 09:01:41 AM
long range models indicating ::blowtorch::  see if it holds

Yep, after a long cooler than normal stretch we may flip to warmer for awhile.  But at least a  ::blowtorch:: in late September isn't as bad as a  ::blowtorch:: in July. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 13, 2017, 11:07:53 AM
Yep, after a long cooler than normal stretch we may flip to warmer for awhile.  But at least a  ::blowtorch:: in late September isn't as bad as a  ::blowtorch:: in July.
Amen. I knew we would have another warm spell but we got it whipped now.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Curt on September 13, 2017, 11:43:53 AM
Amen. I knew we would have another warm spell but we got it whipped now.

Yep! Avg temps are on a quick decline starting now through winter so above average isn't as bad. And we won't be anywhere like last September when we had mid to upper 90's solid through early October.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Coach B on September 13, 2017, 12:26:46 PM
Yep, after a long cooler than normal stretch we may flip to warmer for awhile.  But at least a  ::blowtorch:: in late September isn't as bad as a  ::blowtorch:: in July.

Amen!

I'm fine with  ::blowtorch:: from now thru mid December. No matter how winter turns out relative to average there will be plenty of cold and dreary on the way.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 13, 2017, 01:26:35 PM
Amen!

I'm fine with  ::blowtorch:: from now thru mid December. No matter how winter turns out relative to average there with be plenty of cold and dreary on the way.

Agree with ya on that.  I enjoy a mild October, and even November, because we don't ever see much snow then anyway, so it might as well be above freezing until we can cash in on it with flakage!

And nothing beats a nice mild weekend in late October or November after a hard freeze has occurred, allowing us to enjoy the outdoors again without all the annoying biting insects. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: snowdog on September 13, 2017, 03:47:32 PM
Yep! Avg temps are on a quick decline starting now through winter so above average isn't as bad. And we won't be anywhere like last September when we had mid to upper 90's solid through early October.

Hottest football game I've sat through was UT-Ohio last September. The old folks were dropping like flies that afternoon.  ::hot::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Curt on September 13, 2017, 03:49:40 PM
Hottest football game I've sat through was UT-Ohio last September. The old folks were dropping like flies that afternoon.  ::hot::

I was there too but perhaps more entertained by the old 6'5" drunk man who threw up all over the people in front of him in 92 degree heat.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: WXHD on September 13, 2017, 04:10:02 PM

I was there too but perhaps more entertained by the old 6'5" drunk man who threw up all over the people in front of him in 92 degree heat.

Do you always refer to yourself in the 3rd person?
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 13, 2017, 04:14:04 PM

I was there too but perhaps more entertained by the old 6'5" drunk man who threw up all over the people in front of him in 92 degree heat.

For football fans everywhere, hopefully we won't see that brand of heat this fall.

I think last autumn was probably one of the worst I've experienced.  No rain for nearly two months and record heat don't mix in fall fire season.  (I thought I had died and went to California!)   ::panic::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 13, 2017, 04:43:15 PM
The Raiders / Titans game was brutal last year. My stepdad had problems and got too hot. This year was the complete opposite except for my Raiders taking care of business again.  ::pirate::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Crockett on September 13, 2017, 04:46:35 PM
If it weren't for the wildfires, I would take a redux of last fall every year. Sunshine for days on end and warm temps...the weather was fantastic. I don't mind fall-like temps, though, and I'm actually dreading the fact that we're probably gonna see 80+ temps every day for the rest of the month starting Saturday.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 14, 2017, 07:06:35 AM
One more day of the dank, dreary drizzles over here on the east side, then a long stretch of sunny 80's arrive.  Summer's last  hurrah, perhaps.

Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on September 14, 2017, 08:43:22 AM
If it weren't for the wildfires, I would take a redux of last fall every year. Sunshine for days on end and warm temps...the weather was fantastic. I don't mind fall-like temps, though, and I'm actually dreading the fact that we're probably gonna see 80+ temps every day for the rest of the month starting Saturday.

Hopefully, the wet conditions of late would inoculate the region from a repeat of last year if we did go into a long stretch of dry weather with above average temperatures this fall.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 14, 2017, 08:52:24 AM
Impressive statistic for Knoxville so far this September. . .

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJpyqgWWsAEwGeB.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: cgauxknox on September 14, 2017, 09:03:10 AM
Impressive statistic for Knoxville so far this September. . .

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJpyqgWWsAEwGeB.jpg)

Whatever the statistic is this damp and dreary weather has put my dog into full winter mode; she barely wants outside on days like this and is wearing a permanent hole into her bed.  I'm going to be grateful for some sunshine the next few days.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 14, 2017, 09:34:21 AM
Whatever the statistic is this damp and dreary weather has put my dog into full winter mode; she barely wants outside on days like this and is wearing a permanent hole into her bed.  I'm going to be grateful for some sunshine the next few days.

Endless cloudy days with drizzle should remain in winter.

Fall is my favorite time to do some hiking in the mountains, so looking forward to some sun this weekend to get outside. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Thundersnow on September 14, 2017, 11:48:57 AM
The drizzly conditions are finally lifting with a bit of sun peaking through the overcast here.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on September 14, 2017, 11:52:23 AM
Complete sunshine hear. Heating up fast and humidity building... knew I shouldnt close my pool so early... ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 14, 2017, 02:11:41 PM
It took all day, but the clouds are finally breaking here and there allowing much needed light to filter in.  Feels a lot better seeing some patches of blue sky!
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on September 14, 2017, 09:27:17 PM
NOAA released a LA NINA watch earlier today... ::coffee::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: skillsweather on September 14, 2017, 09:40:29 PM
NOAA released a LA NINA watch earlier today... ::coffee::
So is that basically winter canceled already? Great. I need a cold winter to drive up coal stock :(
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Curt on September 14, 2017, 10:54:38 PM
While La Niņa in general keeps the coldest air in the Midwest, Weak to moderate ones with a negative Nao can produce some incredibly snowy and cold periods. Hate to say it but no doubt 84-85 will surface as an analog. It had some major warmth early before the bottom dropped out in January. 2010-11 also had similar conditions. I would be willing to bet we see wild swings in weather this winter with cold air available for the dive south at times.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: skillsweather on September 14, 2017, 11:11:54 PM
I know why you hate to say it haha. Every year it seems 84-85 is brought up at some point. But reasonably because it was a good year for snow (so I hear anyways as i wasn't around yet).
Title: Fall 2017
Post by: Curt on September 14, 2017, 11:34:37 PM
I know why you hate to say it haha. Every year it seems 84-85 is brought up at some point. But reasonably because it was a good year for snow (so I hear anyways as i wasn't around yet).

Just a brief look at similar analogs that have a weak to moderate La Niņa and neutral to slightly negative PDO- there are lots of snow winners there and a few duds. More later-

Although hint- 1967-68 is a good example
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 15, 2017, 07:19:26 AM
While La Niņa in general keeps the coldest air in the Midwest, Weak to moderate ones with a negative Nao can produce some incredibly snowy and cold periods. Hate to say it but no doubt 84-85 will surface as an analog. It had some major warmth early before the bottom dropped out in January. 2010-11 also had similar conditions. I would be willing to bet we see wild swings in weather this winter with cold air available for the dive south at times.

84-85' is a good enough reason to have been born before then and endure being older today.  Glad I was around to enjoy that epic winter. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on September 15, 2017, 08:31:30 AM
84-85' is a good enough reason to have been born before then and endure being older today.  Glad I was around to enjoy that epic winter.
doubt seriously we ever see another winter like that again.... that winter is once lifetime nearly...
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 15, 2017, 09:45:38 AM
I was a sophomore in high school in 85. Lots of fun was had. Late 70s were not to shabby for us old farts either.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on September 15, 2017, 11:29:23 AM
I was a sophomore in high school in 85. Lots of fun was had. Late 70s were not to shabby for us old farts either.  ::snowman::
I was stationed in camp Lejeune  nc... had a substantial long period of leave during Holliday s ... liked to never made it back on base on time due to road conditions ...
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: StormNine on September 15, 2017, 11:36:09 AM
This pattern change is great news for the Northwest and Montana as they finally get wetter and cooler conditions which they desperately need. In matter of fact, parts of Montana are facing a winter storm. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 15, 2017, 03:30:28 PM
I was a sophomore in high school in 85. Lots of fun was had. Late 70s were not to shabby for us old farts either.  ::snowman::

I was one year behind ya.   Best year of school in my life, because we missed over a month and were granted "emergency snow days" and didn't have to make them up!   Ah--good times!
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Crockett on September 15, 2017, 03:34:13 PM
Some folks are telling their age on this thread...and, boy, are they OLD!  ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Curt on September 15, 2017, 03:35:51 PM
Some folks are telling their age on this thread...and, boy, are they OLD!  ::evillaugh::


There's nothing wrong with getting ready to turn 50 these days. Besides it's the new 40.

Seriously- some people in their early 30's around here look like they're living rough.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: skillsweather on September 15, 2017, 03:38:46 PM
2003 honestly was the best year for me that i remember snow wise. At least was the most memorable. That one snow that year and them still having school because they didnt think it would get here until later and it came by like 9am and snowed nearly 9 inchs my dad said. Funny thing was the brunt of the snow fell during the day and thats usually rare to me because i hardly see snow actually stick during the day anymore it seems. Seems most our snows are night time accumulations that day all 9 inchs fell during the peak of the day but i think it was in like early January so thats why. Thats what made me fall in love with winter. Before that i only liked storms lol
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 15, 2017, 04:37:34 PM
Don't know if its because of the recent cool snap, but my autumn blaze maple is blazing already.  Several branches have turned shades of deep red. 

Post Merge: September 15, 2017, 05:10:20 PM

There's nothing wrong with getting ready to turn 50 these days. Besides it's the new 40.

Seriously- some people in their early 30's around here look like they're living rough.

You are right.  I consider myself very, very blessed to have made it this far.  Not only that, but my 4 older sisters are still around, along with my parents (in their 80's) in Kentucky.  I couldn't ask for more. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: StormNine on September 15, 2017, 07:51:34 PM
The good thing is that usually when you have 2 La Nina's back to back the 2nd one is quite different from the 1st one, for better or for worse. The only time off the top of my head that wasn't the case was 99-00 which was similar to 98-99 for the most part, but that was a Strong La Nina. Since our first La Nina in this series was record warmth then it just has to be better for the 2nd in the series (hopefully at least).

To demonstrate:

- 17-18 was very different from 16-17 (we are talking about the La Nina's of 1916-1918 and not the current 16-18 Nina series). 
- 50-51 was very different from the wet blowtorch that 49-50 was.
- 84-85 was obviously different from 83-84
- 08-09 was colder and not quite as crazy as 07-08
- 11-12 was a lot warmer than 10-11   

We have quite the variety of analogs:   

We have 1917-18, 1950-51, 1967-68, and 1984-85 are analogs for the weenies. 

We have 2011-12 as an analog for those who want winter to burn.   

We have 2008-09 as an analog for those who want to have an ice storm and lose power for several days, weeks, and months. 
   

Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on September 15, 2017, 08:01:15 PM
The good thing is that usually when you have 2 La Nina's back to back the 2nd one is quite different from the 1st one, for better or for worse. The only time off the top of my head that wasn't the case was 99-00 which was similar to 98-99 for the most part, but that was a Strong La Nina. Since our first La Nina in this series was record warmth then it just has to be better for the 2nd in the series (hopefully at least).

To demonstrate:

- 17-18 was very different from 16-17 (we are talking about the La Nina's of 1916-1918 and not the current 16-18 Nina series). 
- 50-51 was very different from the wet blowtorch that 49-50 was.
- 84-85 was obviously different from 83-84
- 08-09 was colder and not quite as crazy as 07-08
- 11-12 was a lot warmer than 10-11   

We have quite the variety of analogs:   

We have 1917-18, 1950-51, 1967-68, and 1984-85 are analogs for the weenies. 

We have 2011-12 as an analog for those who want winter to burn.   

We have 2008-09 as an analog for those who want to have an ice storm and lose power for several days, weeks, and months. 
 
i am personally ....for a stronger nina... 98  99... cant get any good severe in spring time... i take a big outbreak in the winter  example january 21, 1999..... ::guitar::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 15, 2017, 08:21:42 PM
The good thing is that usually when you have 2 La Nina's back to back the 2nd one is quite different from the 1st one, for better or for worse. The only time off the top of my head that wasn't the case was 99-00 which was similar to 98-99 for the most part, but that was a Strong La Nina. Since our first La Nina in this series was record warmth then it just has to be better for the 2nd in the series (hopefully at least).

To demonstrate:

- 17-18 was very different from 16-17 (we are talking about the La Nina's of 1916-1918 and not the current 16-18 Nina series). 
- 50-51 was very different from the wet blowtorch that 49-50 was.
- 84-85 was obviously different from 83-84
- 08-09 was colder and not quite as crazy as 07-08
- 11-12 was a lot warmer than 10-11   

We have quite the variety of analogs:   

We have 1917-18, 1950-51, 1967-68, and 1984-85 are analogs for the weenies. 

We have 2011-12 as an analog for those who want winter to burn.   

We have 2008-09 as an analog for those who want to have an ice storm and lose power for several days, weeks, and months. 
 

So, basically, what you are saying is anything can happen.  ;)

Seriously, though, you've done your homework, and I appreciate someone putting effort into their theories and thoughts about what could happen.   


Post Merge: September 16, 2017, 02:41:36 PM
Today's temperatures in the 80's and dewpoints in the lower 60's makin' it feel like summa time again. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: schneitzeit on September 18, 2017, 06:10:51 AM
Looks like we're  ::blowtorch::  ::blowtorch::  ::blowtorch:: until the end of the month.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 18, 2017, 07:14:53 AM
Seems like we are still in the same overall pattern we've observed most of the summer--predominately cooler than normal, but with a 10-15 day interlude of warmer weather before a shift back to cooler again.  The next return to cooler weather could arrive at month's end.  Of course, Jose and Maria might have a say in what happens as they dance around together off the southeast coast of the U.S..   Hopefully, they'll find each other somewhere far, far away. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: Curt on September 18, 2017, 09:04:46 AM
Seems like we are still in the same overall pattern we've observed most of the summer--predominately cooler than normal, but with a 10-15 day interlude of warmer weather before a shift back to cooler again.  The next return to cooler weather could arrive at month's end.  Of course, Jose and Maria might have a say in what happens as they dance around together off the southeast coast of the U.S..   Hopefully, they'll find each other somewhere far, far away.

Hurricanes have shaken things up a bit but looks like the trough moves east in about 10 days.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: mamMATTus on September 18, 2017, 06:59:02 PM
That's quite a gust front coming down from Kentucky. I guess this is what will trigger overnight storms.[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: WXHD on September 18, 2017, 09:00:25 PM
That's quite a gust front coming down from Kentucky. I guess this is what will trigger overnight storms. (Attachment Link)

And there's two weird pings on the radar on the temnesseewx homepage.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 19, 2017, 07:46:17 AM
Looks like little, if any, rain will fall in the eastern TN valley over the next 7-10 days beyond a few widely scattered storms.  Considering our last significant rain here was on 9/6, we'll be in dire need of moisture whenever the pattern does get wet again.  Most areas in the foothills had very little rain with Irma--mostly under a quarter inch. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: BRUCE on September 19, 2017, 08:41:20 AM
Looks like little, if any, rain will fall in the eastern TN valley over the next 7-10 days beyond a few widely scattered storms.  Considering our last significant rain here was on 9/6, we'll be in dire need of moisture whenever the pattern does get wet again.  Most areas in the foothills had very little rain with Irma--mostly under a quarter inch.
yeah. We are heading into the dry period says climo wise.... other note...looks to be nice cool down by next weekend with nice frontal passage
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 19, 2017, 10:24:30 AM
yeah. We are heading into the dry period says climo wise.... other note...looks to be nice cool down by next weekend with nice frontal passage

Yes, the 06Z GFS has a nice cool shot toward the end of its run.  It has some of the lower elevations of eastern TN down into the lower 40's for overnight lows, which would easily give the higher elevations of the Smokies temperatures cold enough for their first major frost/freeze.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: StormNine on September 19, 2017, 12:48:55 PM
The CPC 8-14 day outlook suggests more average conditions (minus East TN) with the colder than normal conditions moving into the central USA.  That is progress.  The good thing about this current pattern is that it gives cooler weather and rain to the parched Western states although riding will build back along the West Coast by the start of October. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: JayCee on September 19, 2017, 03:14:07 PM
I had hoped today's line of storms would give some needed moisture over here in the foothills east of Knoxville, but the current HRRR has the line totally drying up before it gets here. 

When the rain returns, we'll need it over here.  Leaves are drying up and falling off the trees already, and the increasing dryness will only give an early start to a new wildfire season. 
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: WXHD on September 19, 2017, 03:29:25 PM
Quarter inch in 10 minutes here. Lost 10 degrees as well. Also has. Pleasure of a lightning bolt hitting close enough to go through my finger while touching metal. How fun!

Post Merge: Yesterday at 03:35:08 PM
Now over .5 inches and down almost 20 degrees in 20 minutes.

Post Merge: Yesterday at 03:41:46 PM
Up to .89 and counting
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: snowdog on September 19, 2017, 03:42:51 PM
Euro continuing to show a nice cool down in the long range.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: WXHD on September 19, 2017, 04:00:44 PM
Still raining but slowing down. We're at 1.09 in under an hour. Don't see the numbers growing appreciably so we'll probably end up around 1.15 inches in under an hour.
Title: Re: Fall 2017
Post by: schneitzeit on September 19, 2017, 09:58:53 PM
We picked up about a tenth of an inch before sunset. The line fell apart before it got here. Eastern Knox county didn't receive any rainfall.

Meanwhile, the whole state of Indiana cashed in today