January 19, 2008 Snow Showers

[Eric]

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_57HR.gif

gets a good chunk of middle tn in on the action

So close...yet so far away...

[Coach B]

You just beat me to it Shaq.  I like the looks of that!  We are only two days out.

[servocrow]

That legend and those colors    were a little difficult for this gal to decipher....What amounts are we leaning towards here?

[Eric]

That legend and those colors    were a little difficult for this gal to decipher....What amounts are we leaning towards here?

2.5 to 3.5 basically.  You should be able to click on the little thingie in the bottom right hand corner and expand the picture.

[servocrow]

2.5 to 3.5 basically.  You should be able to click on the little thingie in the bottom right hand corner and expand the picture.

Thanks, that helped.  Varying shades of PINK just does not cut it for a precip map....

NW trend anyone???

[servocrow]

Of course, at this point, I would probably be ecstatic at a 3-inch snowfall.

[shaq725]

   We just need this thing to shift a little north.But hey ill take 3.5 inches

[Eric]

If this thing shifted 50 miles north, we would be in very good shape.

[jmundie]

Guys, this may be a coup for the NAM.

The NAM is good in the very short term, which is not where this storm is right now...

BUT

The short term where the NAM is good is where the storm is set up. If its right up until then, this solution is going to be similar to reality.

The last 3 NAM runs hae showed the storm and have brought it further and further northwest.

We don't want to be in the bullseye right now.

And remember that the NAM was the better model on yesterdays evaporational cooling snow. GFS had moved it to an entirely rain event by 12z yesterday... the Channel 4 Met definitely had some egg on his face. He said it was all rain, no mixing.

[dapig]

i hope this snow happens. We leave tomorrow for a weekend in the mountains and it looks like the could get 10+ inches. My kids would go crazy, I am already starting get excited about this its going to be hard to focus on work the rest of the day.

[Ron_Jarrell]

It's on the GGEM now.

Just sayin. 

BTW, no way we should be talkin bout accum from models now. Lets just get the track right. She'll be juicy.

[shaq725]

I really hopes this pan out for the folks to the south,ALMOST as much as I want it for us.
It would be nice to see and hear some thundersnow but thats way to early to be talked about.Even though im talkin about it

[jmundie]

That's true Ron. Who knows how things will verify.

But this "event" is only 50 some odd hours out. With that type of accumulation map, we know generally that this will be significant for someone.

12GFS is on its way out right now. If it continues not showing anything, I"m still not worried. It had no idea with the last system. Was slow with precip, overestimated temps at surface and 850.

Almost time for nowcasting. I can't wait.

BTW, GGem has been decent this year

[jmundie]

GFS not as suppressed this run.

I say game on.

[Ron_Jarrell]

Trend looks very good for us.