January 16-18th Rain-Sleet-Snow Chances

[Snowman]

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUN POLAR AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED
ACR THE MID STATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE A LITTLE WITH WESTERN GULF SYSTEMS HEADING NORTHEAST.
DEPTH OF WARM SECTOR LIMITED WITH COLD H8 TEMPS IN THE MODELS...AND
IT APPEARS THAT WINTER WX WL SHOW UP AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK.

FIRST WAVE MOVES IN WED WITH ANOTHER ONE FRI. LONG TERM MODELS
SHOW ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE WITH SECOND WAVE WITH A BETTER CHC SNOW.
GFS MODEL IS SHOWING CONTINUITY WITH FRI SYS...AND SO ARE ENSEMBLES.
IF THIS CONTINUES WL PROBABLY NEED TO OUTLOOK POSSIBLE WINTER WX
EVENT IN THE EXTENDED NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Woodvegas]

LOL...1/12 0z GFS shows a March 1993 type of storm next Friday night...a foot of snow for Middle TN...Booyah!

[Curt]

didnt see this thread as well...For Memphis area...this would be a ton of sleet and snow. Too bad its 7 days out. Did anyone notice that GFS voodoo afterwards brings on the mother of all icestorms to Arkansas and Tennessee? At the least we finally have soemthing to look forward to in January.

[shaq725]

Well at least I have a chance of getting out of school with our built-in snow days that we never use.

[Thundersnow]

I think I'll print, laminate, and frame this...  


Wait a second... I thought these kinds of storms only show up 300+ hours away!  

That's really only a week away??

Ok... back to reality, people.  Don't get too attached to it.  There's still a lot of time for things to change.  It's still model land... yet not quite "Voodoo Land."  

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[Woodvegas]

This is from the 0z GFS for Murfreesboro. Multiply the QPF times 10 to get the amount of snow. SFC=surface temp (Celsius)

TIME                       SFC-C    850-C    QPF-INCHES

FRI 12Z     18-JAN     -1.3       1.0         0.00   
FRI 18Z     18-JAN      1.0      -1.5         0.09   
SAT 00Z    19-JAN     -0.1      -1.6         0.48     
SAT 06Z    19-JAN     -4.6      -9.7         0.58     
SAT 12Z    19-JAN    -12.3     -16.7        0.04     
SUN 00Z   20-JAN    -10.6     -15.7         0.01     
SUN 12Z   20-JAN    -12.2     -12.2         0.01     
MON 00Z   21-JAN   -14.2      -8.6          0.01     
MON 12Z   21-JAN   -12.6      -3.1          0.00     

[Coach B]

I fully expect this one to verify as Snowman and I will just be starting a three day weekend off of school next Saturday.  We are firmly entrenched in a snow drought therefore snow should only fall on weekends where it can be wasted. 

[Snowman]

Thats when it usually happens. Then nobody gets to stay home.

[WeatherRocker]

LOL...1/12 0z GFS shows a March 1993 type of storm next Friday night...a foot of snow for Middle TN...Booyah!

We should get so lucky.

[mark in lavergne]

I will be holding a snow party next friday nite at midnight thru the nite until we get snowed in at the Smyrna bowling center. You can bowl at midnite for 3 hours for $10.00 a person. Last yer we did snow parties and had a great time doing this. Maybe this will help our chances next weekend!!

[WeatherRocker]

Awesome!!!

I'll ask if I can borrow the car!  w00t!!!

Just to clarify - FROM midnite until

[Thundersnow]

So, the big blizzard showing up on the models last night for next weekend isn't quite there now.  However, the ingredients are still floating around... i.e. colder air, impulses/moisture.

I suspect we'll have to let this simmer over the next couple of days before the models start to get a better fix on it in the medium range.

[Woodvegas]

1/12 6z and 12z GFS takes the Friday night storm away (big surprise, huh) but shows a low tracking SE of us on Thursday which could give us something if it trends NW. Lack of model consistency makes it hard to make any forecast with confidence. However,  there should be a trough in the eastern US the latter part of next week with a storm coming out of the gulf but when and where it goes nobody knows....at least I don't!

[CookevilleWeatherGuy]

1/12 6z and 12z GFS takes the Friday night storm away (big surprise, huh) but shows a low tracking SE of us on Thursday which could give us something if it trends NW. Lack of model consistency makes it hard to make any forecast with confidence. However,  there should be a trough in the eastern US the latter part of next week with a storm coming out of the gulf but when and where it goes nobody knows....at least I don't!

Definitely will flip-flop between us getting snow and us not getting any..that has been the story of this winter with the computer models thusfar...

[Reneezelle]

Isn't that the story of EVERY winter here???
  I was so optimistic this morning when I read all the posts... now my bubble is deflating.