Mid-January Chances

[Eric]

I borrowed this from another blog (credit Stormlover for originally posting this at Talkweather where he got it from Spann's blog I think).  Oh happy day if this thing really verified:

[servocrow]

ooooooh.....ahhhhhhhh...Yeah, I heard Spann talking about this on the Rick & Bubba show this morning as I was taking the kids to school.  Of course he did begin with the qualifiying statement..."Remember, anything in a forecast more than 7 days out...blah blah blah....."

But still hopeful....   Like those totals and thinking there could be spots with higher quantities too..

snicker..

[Reneezelle]

Bring it on! Im well past ready!

[Ron_Jarrell]

I borrowed this from another blog (credit Stormlover for originally posting this at Talkweather where he got it from Spann's blog I think).  Oh happy day if this thing really verified:

That is one SWEEEEEET looking model run. I would give... well I would give just about anything for that to verify! 

[Snowman]

Very Nice. Sweet. I dread the nw trend. Who knows though. We are overdue.

[snowdog]

I would love to see that verify but it is getting close to the time frame for the models to turn into pumpkins and end our dream.  I don't see this one as being "the one".  Rain on the front side and 6" behind the front?  Yeah, I'll have what the GFS is smoking/drinking.

[Crockett]

I would love to see that verify but it is getting close to the time frame for the models to turn into pumpkins and end our dream.  I don't see this one as being "the one".  Rain on the front side and 6" behind the front?  Yeah, I'll have what the GFS is smoking/drinking.

I don't put much faith in what the GFS is showing either, but it certainly wouldn't be the first time we started off as rain and changed to snow with several inches of accumulation. Many of our bigger snows seem to follow that pattern. In '94, we had rain change over to freezing rain and then snow and wound up with 8-10 inches of snow on top of the ice. Power was out for days. In '98, the biggest winter storm I can personally remember hit the Plateau unexpectedly. We started off as rain, changed to snow, and wound up with about a foot. Many areas were without power for over a week and virtually every road, even the main highways, were closed by downed trees.

[Snowman]

Latest From James Spann...

JANUARY 13-14: The 12Z GFS continues the idea of a major upper trough, which spins up a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico that moves northeast, putting Alabama in a favorable quadrant of the storm for snow. If you want to see the snow accumulation graphic with the 12Z GFS, watch the Weather Xtreme video. Snow lovers will love what they see, but we are in the land of voodoo here, and nobody knows if this event will verify. But, I will say the GFS has had a pretty good track record over the past few months with events in the 7 to 15 day time frame. Only time will tell…

[servocrow]

I'm fastening the hoverskirt...and have the glass slippers on stand-by in case the carriage DOES NOT turn into a pumpkin and we all get to go to the SNO-BALL!!

[Eric]

Someone say something about Sno-Balls?

[servocrow]

YUMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM


Now, that's some GOOOOOOOD EATS!!

[Thundersnow]

Well... you knew it was coming...

The 18Z run doesn't quite have the same excitement as the previous runs.  This thing is still a week to ten days away though, so this is to be expected.

I'm personally banking, not on the models per se at this point, but on a gut instinct that we'll see something about mid-month.  Just waiting for the models to come around in agreement. 

[Reneezelle]

AAAAhhhhhhhhhggggggghh!!!!!! Im getting anxious!!! WHATS THE LATEST?!?!?!?!  What are we waiting for 10:00 pm or is it midnight???  TELL ME SOMETHING GOOD PEOPLE!

[Thundersnow]

The latest model run (0Z) is coming out now.

Will let you know what it says...

[Thundersnow]

LOL.  Just looking at the GFS model run... Fun stuff... almost comical.

Just to give you an idea of what the 18Z said... it had picked up a northwest trend... the low was tracking right over us, with colder air coming in behind it.  Most of the storm was going to be rain.

Now, the 0Z is suppressing it to the southeast, where we don't get as much moisture... but, temperatures are close.

Then... we have a blizzard of the ages showing up at 300 hours on January 16. 


(Any similarity with reality will be strictly coincidental, I'm sure.)