Mid-January Chances

[Ron_Jarrell]

GFS now showing a return to a amplified pattern around mid January with a trough progressing through the Midwest into the East. Accompanying pattern change is a low which produces QPF across the SE that bombs just off the coast. Granted, this is a ways off, but I've seen a lot of analogs rolling forward a return to the cold out of a strong warmup in LaNina environment. GFS now showing this on long range.

Something to keep an eye on.

[Snowman]

I was looking at that low this morning. Talk about a storm. Trend will prolly warm it some and shoot it NW some, but the important thing is, we will prolly transition back to cold and stormy. Looking like an ok pattern.

[Ron_Jarrell]

I failed to mention Jan 14-15 is the date progged by the models right now for the trough and low giving us a shot at some sn.

[Thundersnow]

The GFS 0Z run last night was hinting at the trough coming in about 1/14-15.  But, the 12Z run today is bringing the trough in even earlier around about 1/11... which means, if this is true, the blowtorch warmth after this week's brief cold snap may only last about a week or so before we go cold again.

[Thundersnow]

The 12Z GFS this morning is showing an "interesting" scenario across our area around about January 13.

[Reneezelle]

I have had this weirdly strange January 15th number stuck in my head since Thanksgiving. 
  hmmmmmmmmmmmm....... Interesting......

[Snowman]

Just looked at that interesting scenario for about the 13th. Lets hope that thing doesnt trend northwest. That would bring some winry weather to the area. Lets get consistency now.

[Thundersnow]

This from the CPC this afternoon...

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 10 - 16 2008:  THE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION FOR THE WEEK 2 FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID CHANGES COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PATTERN.  AS A RESULT, SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS.  THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN HOLDS ON TO A PATTERN WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THAT PREDICTED FOR DAYS 6-10, BUT THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER IN SEVERAL WAYS.  FOR EXAMPLE, THERE IS A NOTICEABLE SPLIT IN THE BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH, WITH A CONCENTRATION OF BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA, AND ANOTHER CONCENTRATION OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO WESTERN CANADA.  THERE IS SOME INDECISION ON THE PART OF MOST MODELS AS TO WHERE TO PLACE THE UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN MARITIMES REGION IN THE PRECEDING 6-10 DAY PERIOD.  IF THE RIDGE REMAINS IN THIS SAME LOCATION, THE EASTERN CONUS WOULD STAY RELATIVELY WARM, BUT IF, AS SOME MODEL RUNS SHOW, THIS RIDGE RELOCATES TO NORTHERN HUDSON BAY, VERY COLD CONTINENTAL AIR MASSES WOULD BE GENERATED.  SOON THEREAFTER, ARCTIC AIR MAY STREAM SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BORDER INTO THE CENTRAL (AND POSSIBLY EASTERN) CONUS.  HOPEFULLY, TOMORROWS MODEL RUNS WILL ALLOW US TO BETTER ASSESS THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS POSSIBILITY.

[Thundersnow]

Hmm... still there.

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[Woodvegas]

Definitely something to keep an eye on. If it's still there at T minus 7 days I'll start to get excited.

[CookevilleWeatherGuy]

Definitely something to keep an eye on. If it's still there at T minus 7 days I'll start to get excited.

Me and you both!!

[Woodvegas]

1/03 6z GFS has a dream storm for us. The 0z Euro seems to be trending toward the GFS solution.

[Eric]

Here's Hackuweather's take on the storm system.  This is part of there 11-15 day forecasts:

Friday Night, Jan 11: Cold with snow much of the time, low of 27

Saturday, Jan 12: Rain and snow mixed, high of 36

Saturday Night, Jan 12: Very cold and snow, low of 20

Sunday, Jan 13: Cold, with snow, high of 36

I kinda laughed out loud when I read that.  I know their forecasts are completely model driven and it's WAY TOO EARLY to put much stock into it, but what if...

[Thundersnow]

You don't want to get too excited over this.  It's still a ways out.

But, at the same time... we're not just talking about some iffy situation in November or early December.  It's JANUARY.  It's prime time, climatologically speaking.  And, it's been too many years with no major storm...

It's got to happen sooner or later...

[servocrow]

Happy things are still okay in Voodoo Land and hoping they STAY that way..