Possible Winter Wx around Christmas?

[Eric]

Picked this little morsel up from the NWS:

FOR THE WEEKEND...A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND SPIN UP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IN
MID TN ON SATURDAY WITH THE CHANCE CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT COLD SURGE WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING A VERY BLUSTERY DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE PLATEAU. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS SHOWN MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AND CHRISTMAS. A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS VERY LIMITED AND THIS IS VERY FAR AHEAD...SO WE
WILL JUST KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

Like they said, we're still several days removed from this weekend.  We all remember the little event from 2003.  That wasn't supposed to be a big event either.  But what if...

[servocrow]

I'm so tired of the Grinch stealin' our snow and not coming back with his big heart and making it right...

Let's just say...

'sigh'....I'm ready for some snow....

[Reneezelle]

Ooooooooooooohhhhhhhh man. How nice would it be........
 
   Guess we should not get our hopes up though. I will admit I will constantly check the board every half hour of every day until Sunday but whatever....

[servocrow]

joemomma, I accidentally removed your message...I was going to put it in quotes and reply to it, but my "sensitive" touch pad on this laptop removed it before I could back out of it.

I'm sorry about that...I tried to cancel out of when I saw it was happening...

I was just going to say...I AGREE WITH YOU...I want to be snowed in...(let me get to the grocery store first)...

I'm tired of just getting glancing blows all the time...

Apologies again..UGH!!

[Crockett]

I think we're flirting with something in the Sunday-Tuesday time frame next week. With that much vorticity, will that ULL really be as moisture-starved as it appears?

Even though the model doesn't back it up, I was interested to see the MOS from the 12z GFS print enough QPF for Crossville in the aftermath of the cold front Sunday for perhaps some light snow accumulations. I think the next few runs of the GFS will be interesting to watch, though I'm sure we'll wind up being 50 degrees and sunny on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. 

[snowdog]

You guys are guaranteed a snow on Christmas because Snowdog will be in Florida and the general rule seems to be when Snowdog is out of town during winter, that is when it will snow. 

Congrats on your White Christmas.  Now if we can work some white stuff down to Tampa, FL that would be great.   

[servocrow]

I think hubby is scheduled on a business trip to Tampa right after Christmas...maybe that could help procure a snow event...

hmmmmmm....

"..Why, that Grinch even took their last can of Who Hash..."

[jmundie]

Anyone see the 6z on Christmas Day? Talk about eye candy.... You know when the mets at news 2 are posting images from the 6z that its pretty interesting.

[Thundersnow]

No kidding, jmundie. 

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[servocrow]

Justin, we have a pr0n0 restriction here...tsk tsk tsk....

ahem....

naughty naughty...

[servocrow]

No kidding, jmundie. 

For SHAME, TS!!

[Thundersnow]

 

I'm trying to cut back... honest.

 

[Eric]

Hey is there anything seriously wrong with looking at weatherpr0n?  It's not like we're gonna go blind or anything...

 

I've been following talk about this little "episode" over at another forum.  Looks like the Euro is supporting this thing right now, but no moisture over TN, which I'm totally skeptical about.

[servocrow]

Well,....like I said over at NashvilleWX...I'll believe it when I see the flakes falling from the cold dead sky..

or something like that...

 

[Thundersnow]

Well, not to be a NAYSAYER, but I have heard that the 6Z run may not be as reliable as some of the other runs (something about the data input not being as up-to-date).  But, I don't know.

I did read where there was some model support from the EURO... however, it apparently has less moisture.

Incidently, the GFS has apparently been picking up this disturbance for a few days now... it just didn't have any moisture with it until now.

I'm sure it will be a "it loves me; it loves me not" game with the GFS over the coming days about it anyway. 

The typical emotional rollercoaster:

YAY!   
awww 
YAY!   
awww 
YAY!   
awww 
YAY!   
awww