Rain and Flurries: Weekend Storm Discussion

[claya91]

Remember that if it doesn 't happen it is no big deal because big snows don't happen in December as often as the do in January and February.

[shaq725]

TWC has a 60% chance of snow Saturday night. Of course you can see that its model based with that high.

http://www.weather.com/weather/wxdetail/38401?dayNum=5

[Snowman]

The Wacko Crackos man. Dont fall for it. 

[Snowman]

Interesting run once again tonight. We will have to wait and see. But from looks of it, this is going to be a long week. Night Ya'll.

[CookevilleWeatherGuy]

This is the first, best chance we've had for a GREAT shot..let's all hope it will hold up!

[Thundersnow]

It's still there.  The system has a slightly different look to it from the earlier run.  But, it's way too early to call specifics on it anyway.  Temperatures may be borderline.  We shall see how later runs trend.

[Woodvegas]

The 12/11 0z GFS is hilarious....storm track is similar to the blizzard of 1993.

[Thundersnow]

The TV mets (at least on WSMV and WKRN that I saw) are now mentioning the chance of snow (or rain changing to snow) over the weekend.

[snowdog]

Whats this I hear about...Snnnnnnow?  Surely not as I sit here with an expected high in the mid 70's today. 

06z models still have the storm.  I dont think it is going to happen though (nothing more than some possible backside flurries).  If it were Jan or Feb, yeah I would be getting somewhat excited.  I am hoping beyond hope it does happen but realistically...tough to keep that warm air out ahead of the low in this area, especially in mid December. 

[CookevilleWeatherGuy]

The TV mets (at least on WSMV and WKRN that I saw) are now mentioning the chance of snow (or rain changing to snow) over the weekend.

Yep, I saw NVC (short for Nancy VanCamp) on Channel 4 this morning talking about it....*interesting*....

By the way, our record high for this date in Cookeville is 70° set in 1971...looks like we'll exceed that. 

[Thundersnow]

06z models still have the storm.  I dont think it is going to happen though (nothing more than some possible backside flurries).  If it were Jan or Feb, yeah I would be getting somewhat excited.  I am hoping beyond hope it does happen but realistically...tough to keep that warm air out ahead of the low in this area, especially in mid December.

I know what you mean.  Recent experience and climo doesn't have significant snow being particularly likely this early in the season.  But, it wouldn't be unprecendented.  Accumulating snows have happened as early as November on rare occasions in Nashville history.  You have to think we're due an early season snowfall at some point, just to keep up with the law of averages (even if it doesn't really work that way, lol).  But, there's still a ways to go for this thing to trend one direction or the other.

[joemomma]

NOAA has a 40% chance for us on the hill for Saturday.  We'll see how this turns out, but I'm not going to mention anything to the family just yet.  I'll give it another couple of days.

[snowdog]

Recent experience and climo doesn't have significant snow being particularly likely this early in the season.  But, it wouldn't be unprecendented.

Yeah recent history suggests it takes too many variables to all come together perfectly for it to snow in this area and that is in Jan and Feb.  There is going to be a lot of good warm air in place down south ready to rush in ahead of the low.  I'd be much more comfortable if the cold air was already in place and the "warm" air down south was 40's and 50's not 60's and 70's.  Which is usually the case in Jan/Feb.  

We are due though.  That is about the only thing working in our favor.  We are LOOOOOOOOONG OVERDUE!!  

[Reneezelle]

Well Im not gonna say anything either. BUT This Saturday is our open house for work and it would be oh so festive to have snow in the forecast.

  OH how I would love to send my Sunday and Monday stuck at home.

But Im not gonna tell anybody or I will just get laughed at when it doesn't happen.

[Thundersnow]

More fun stuff from the 12Z GFS.   

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