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Author Topic: Rain and Flurries: Weekend Storm Discussion  (Read 4971 times)

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Offline Woodvegas

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Rain and Flurries: Weekend Storm Discussion
« on: December 10, 2007, 11:57:44 AM »
We are in the game for some frozen precip this coming Saturday night. The 0z Euro and 12z GFS ensemble mean are intriguing. The op 12z GFS is probably biased south and east as usual which is a good thing. As always we will need a little luck but at least we are in the mix right now. Something to keep an eye on.
« Last Edit: December 19, 2007, 09:27:05 AM by Thundersnow »
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Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Re: We in the game for something on 12/15
« Reply #1 on: December 10, 2007, 12:46:53 PM »
I was just coming in here to post a topic on this. It's a bit early to get worked up on this at all, but the GFS ensemble members are showing a Saturday night event across TN. Definitely something to keep an eye on.

FWIW, it's going to be about timing once again. Stay tuned... :)
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: We are in the game for something on 12/15
« Reply #2 on: December 10, 2007, 01:04:40 PM »
I'm sure it will be a borderline situation as always.  Give it another couple of days, and if it's still on the table, then let the fun and speculations begin.  :)
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Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Re: We are in the game for something on 12/15
« Reply #3 on: December 10, 2007, 03:55:33 PM »
18Z NAM has already killed it. LOL.

Waiting on 18z GFS to see if it brings it back.
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Offline Snowman

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Re: We are in the game for something on 12/15
« Reply #4 on: December 10, 2007, 04:29:09 PM »
Well Ron, take a look at the GFS, cause lets say storm.
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Brandon

Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Re: We are in the game for something on 12/15
« Reply #5 on: December 10, 2007, 04:31:43 PM »
Yep GFS still has a s/w moving through on Sat. night with the cold air arriving much faster than the moisture leaving. We'll see how this pans out, if anything it would only be a few flakes in the air to look pretty. :)
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: We are in the game for something on 12/15
« Reply #6 on: December 10, 2007, 04:32:36 PM »
Fun little scenario anyway.

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Offline Snowman

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Re: We are in the game for something on 12/15
« Reply #7 on: December 10, 2007, 04:37:41 PM »
I just am hoping for a little NW Trend that we are used to getting screwed by. We will see what tonight says. Mountains look to come out pretty good.
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Brandon

Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Re: We are in the game for something on 12/15
« Reply #8 on: December 10, 2007, 04:51:16 PM »
Yeah, I'd say higher elevations in the mountains will see a pretty good snow out of this if it comes to fruition!

I'm hoping for more too, but don't want to go wishcasting on GFS. I'd like to handpick ensemble members too... I'll take a P08 with a side of P06. :)
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: We are in the game for something on 12/15
« Reply #9 on: December 10, 2007, 04:59:10 PM »
LOL...  the guys at EasternUSWx are going out of their minds over it.  That would be a historic storm in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast if it verified.  But, we got a few days of model runs to get through first...

Fun to think about anyway.
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Offline Snowman

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Re: We are in the game for something on 12/15
« Reply #10 on: December 10, 2007, 05:02:53 PM »
Im with Ron on this one. Been burned to many times to buy into this just yet. But this system will be something to track this week and watched closely. Could get interesting.  ;)
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Brandon

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: We are in the game for something on 12/15
« Reply #11 on: December 10, 2007, 05:05:05 PM »
Quote from: Snowman on December 10, 2007, 05:02:53 PM
Im with Ron on this one. Been burned to many times to buy into this just yet.

I concur.

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Offline lyngo

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Re: We are in the game for something on 12/15
« Reply #12 on: December 10, 2007, 05:42:59 PM »
Yep, been burned too many times in the past to get excited at this juncture.  When it's snowing all around you and you get the dreaded warm tongue of air straight up I65 (a couple of years ago) and get rain, you tend to be gunshy so to speak.  If we're still talking about this on Wednesday night or Thursday then I'll get excited.  ;)
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: We are in the game for something on 12/15
« Reply #13 on: December 10, 2007, 06:32:35 PM »
The big three network affiliates aren't biting on it at this point.

WKRN (Davis Nolan) said cold on Saturday with highs in the 30s with "a flurry possible on the Plateau."

WTVF (Ron Howes) also said highs in the mid-upper 30s with nothing said about precip.

WSMV (Lisa Spencer) said "dry but cold" (but highs in the lower 40s).

I suspect they've been burned worst of all over the last couple of years.  ;)

0Z GFS should start cranking by 9:30-10:00 tonight.  The system might be totally gone by then.  But, strictly for curiosity's sake, we'll check it out...
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Offline claya91

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Re: We are in the game for something on 12/15
« Reply #14 on: December 10, 2007, 08:20:41 PM »
I don't blame them... but you know that they have noticed it. BTW... Fox 17 has us a 20% chance of snow Saturday in case you want to add that to your list
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