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SHORT TERM FORECASTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN932 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2007ARZ035-036-048-049-058-MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ003-004-020-021-050>055-088>092-241700-ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MONROE-PANOLA-PHILLIPS-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLARKSDALE...CORINTH...HUMBOLDT...JACKSON...MEMPHIS...OXFORD...TUPELO...WEST MEMPHIS932 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2007.NOW...THROUGH 1100 AM...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET WILL OCCUROVER PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. ONE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ISOCCURRING OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A BELLSTO WILDERSVILLE LINE. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING OVEREASTERN ARKANSAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND MUCH OF NORTHERNMISSISSIPPI. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDEAVERAGING LESS THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. NO TRAVEL PROBLEMSARE ANTICIPATED IN AREAS WHERE SLEET IS MIXED IN WITH RAIN.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN1008 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2007.UPDATE...OVERRUNNING PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. LIGHTRAIN AT TIMES MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET CONTINUES TO PUSH INFROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS TRENDWILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLYWARM...CHANCES FOR MIX PRECIP BECOME LESS AND LESS. ALTHOUGHLOCATIONS WHERE PRECIP HAS NOT STARTED...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ANDTHE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...COULD STILL SEE AN INITIAL SHOT OF LIGHTSLEET WHEN PRECIP BEGINS OTHERWISE PRECIP WILL BE ALL RAIN.CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...WILL ONLY UPDATE TO GET RID OFMORNING WORDING.
We've got a mix of something that is falling now!!And it ain't just rain!!!Some of it's bouncing!!
Hazardous Weather Outlook--------------------------------------------------------------------------------HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY309 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2007KYZ026-061-062-070>076-081-082-252015-OHIO KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-209 PM CST SAT NOV 24 2007THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRALINDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY..DAY ONE...TONIGHT.THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHTACROSS EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. ACCUMULATION OF FROZENPRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED...TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY BECOMEHAZARDOUS IF FROZEN PRECIPITATION OCCURS..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAYAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WHILE MOST OF THEPRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...AFEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING ANDBRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THISTIME..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN230 PM CST SAT NOV 24 2007.DISCUSSION...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTICCOAST THIS AFTERNOON. STORMY WX WAS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP FROM TXTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THEFIRST SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME WET WX TO MID TN TONIGHT AND EARLYSUNDAY...THEN THE SECOND STRENGTHENING SYSTEM WILL BRING A SHOT OFBRIEFLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.THE FIRST SYSTEM HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ANDOVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION REACHING ALL THE WAY INTO MID TN. THEPRECIPITATION WAS MUCH LIGHTER THAN WOULD APPEAR ON RADAR IN OURAREA. ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES WERE REPORTED WITH TRACE RAINFALLAMOUNTS SO FAR. AS THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW LEVELREFLECTION CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE INCOVERAGE. MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE40...AND OVERNIGHT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCHMOST AREAS. EARLY THIS MORNING...THE MEMPHIS AREA HAD REPORTS OFPATCHY LIGHT SLEET. THIS MAY OCCUR AGAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHTOVER PARTS OF MID TN AS THE MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS SOME DRY AND COLDLAYERS. GREATEST CHANCE FOR THIS IS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65.FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MARGINAL AND EVEN IF IT DOES OCCUR...NOSIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITATION BEING VERYLIGHT AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.ON SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BLANKET THE AREA AND THERE WILL BE ON ANDOFF LIGHT RAIN. AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGHMOST OF HT DAY. RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL RAMP UP LATEDAY IN THE WEST...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THESECOND SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE MS RIVER. THE GFS SHOWS THESURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS MEMPHIS AND REACHING PADUCAH BY MONDAYMORNING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTOTHE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STRONG UPWARDMOTION WILL PROVIDE A GOOD WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT WITHEMBEDDED CONVECTION FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW WILL LIFT QUICKLY INTO THEOHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWER(S) LINGER.FAIR WX IS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY INTOWEDNESDAY. MODELS ADVERTISE A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANDTHURSDAY. WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT ANDPERHAPS SOME POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND PLATEAU ONTHURSDAY. GFS SHOWS A COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGHPOSSIBLY LIMITED TO THE 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PATTERNPROGRESSES WITH RETURN FLOW AND ANOTHER FRONT BRINGING THEPOSSIBILITY OF RAIN NEXT WEEKEND
I can attest to seeing the "bouncies" mixed in with the rain earlier.It's getting to be that time of year.
.NOW...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET WILL FALL OVER A PORTION OF THE MIDSOUTHTHIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH 530 PM CST...THE AREA OF POSSIBLEPRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH OF A CHERRY VALLEY ARKANSAS...SALTILLO TENNESSEE LINE...AND THIS DOES INCLUDE NORTH MISSISSIPPI.RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY...FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.