Any thoughts on this winter yet?

[joemomma]

Just wondering if anyone had any thoughts on this winter yet.  Some of you experts that know how to find this stuff, I was wondering if in the past when we've had really hot, dry summers like this how the winters in those years turned out.  Say like in the '52-54 years, and I think it was sometime in the early 80's when we had another hot, dry summer...

[Ron_Jarrell]

I'm thinking the days will be a lot shorter, nights longer.

Seriously, I'll try to find some data and post. There were some people on another site I frequent asking me for the same data. Record heat summers vs. corresponding winters.

[joemomma]

That's funny.  I threw it up there and you hit it out of the park 

I tried to poke around some and see what I could come up with on my own, but the only things I could find wanted money for historical data.  I couldn't find anything useful over at NOAA either, I couldn't work their system.  Too much for me!

[Thundersnow]

I've looked at archived historical data before, but I don't have anything readily available right now.

I can tell you that weather patterns appear to go in cycles.  I'm not sure that there is necessarily any definite link between what the summer is like versus what the following winter is like.  Weather patterns seem to be driven by a cocktail of factors, including but not limited to phenomena such as El Nino/La Nino, and different things going on with the orientation of the jet stream, wind patterns, and sea surface temps.  So, there's no one single silver bullet we can use to determine what the weather does in any given season, at least from what I've seen, anyway.

We go through decades of colder, snowier winters.  Then, we go through stretches of milder winters (where we appear to be now). 

Droughts and heat waves versus milder, wetter years seem to behave the same way.  And, we've seen both extremes even over the last five years or less.

The 1950s apparently brought significant drought and heat wave... that we've only now just seen anything like.  Apparently, there wasn't a lot of snow during that decade as a whole either... with a couple of big exceptions.

1951 saw what still goes down as one of the worst winter storms in this part of the country, followed by a period of below zero temperatures.  Then, most of the rest of the decade was relatively mild with not a lot of snow (that I recall anyway). 

Then, that apparently all changed in the winter of 1959-60, when Nashville recorded what still goes down as the snowiest winter on record, as I recall (something like 38 inches of snow that winter... this is all from memory here).  The 1960s were apparently some very snowy years.

It's somewhat like the hurricane activity.  Experts have discovered multi-decade cycles there as well.  We are apparently now in a more active cycle.

Interesting stuff for sure. 

[Thundersnow]

By the way, when I say "I recall," I mean what I recall from the records.  I don't actually recall the 50s and 60s... as that was a little before my time. 

However, my family that was around tell me that they remember more snow back then.

[joemomma]

Thanks TS.  I wasn't around then either, but I do remember some nice snows in the early 80's.  I also remember some really hot, dry summers around the same time.  Here's to hoping for a good winter (good=lots of snow).

[Thundersnow]

OK... this probably doesn't mean a whole lot, but I thought I would share some stats from 1983 (since I remember A) very hot weather in August and B) very cold weather the following December).  I was in the third grade that year. 

Attached is a graphic of temperatures recorded from a 5-day period in August and a 5-day period in December (source: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBNA/1983/12/24/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA)

Notice that we soared above 100 degrees that August but dipped below 0 in December.


That's not to say that we'll see that happen this year, but well, you know, for what it's worth.  

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[luv4tn]

However, my family that was around tell me that they remember more snow back then.

My friend once showed me old family pictures and amongst them there were pics that showed knee-deep snow at Old Hickory. From the cars shown ... mid 60s ...  .. ?

[servocrow]

I say we're due...I was born in January 1961 and my Dad said it was a very cold and SNOWY morning (we lived in KY)....I can ALSO remember SNOW DAYS (and quite a few) in the LATE 70's...IN PARTICULAR...I remember winter '82-'83 being particularly snow...It seems in '82, that semester of college didn't even start until LATE January because of SNOW and sub-zero temps.  My parents house has a den that was a converted carport...and there was ICE forming on the INSIDE because the room was so cold.  We didn't have central air at the time.  Only a gas space heater in the rear of the room.  We kept blankets and sheets on the windows and doors to keep the draft out.

When I moved to TN (ROUND 1), I fondly  remember '88-'89 snows that practically SHUTDOWN CHATTANOOGA for a month.

I moved to South Florida in 1991 and WAS VERY pregnant in '95....and was probably calling a relative or two that winter and making fun of them while I was sitting by the pool saying..."Hey, do you REALIZE it is 80 DEGREES WARMER HERE than you are there???"

We were so evil then....

Oh well, guess I had better get into Hades On Wheels (AKA, The Van) and pick up the boys from school)....

I'll be praying for snow....and for forgiveness for my past transgressions.  sigh.

[Snowman]

So far, Noaa is predicting for us in Middle Tennessee, a warmer and dryer winter than average.

One of the Farmers' Almanacs is forecasting a Cold and Wet winter, but not snowy.

We are due for a good winter. I am hoping this very much so. I will try to dig some more scoop up and post tomorrow. Friday Night Football may delay tonight. 

[kailynleto | Nightwolf]

I like 1988-89, 1989-90, 1995-96, 1985-86, 1903-04, and 1964-65.  But the two I see as resembling this period best are 1978-79 and 1983-84.  Only time will tell.  Research is coming.

[Reneezelle]

Ohhhhh man! Y'all sure know how to get me riled up!!!
  Its 90-something at midnight and Im thinking of hot chocolate, my blanket, my pajamas and a snow day!

   It would be in all of your best interest to go ahead and do a snow dance, so you don't hear me whine as much as I did last year.

[Thundersnow]

Hmm... just noticed this little tidbit from a statement from the NWS regarding the current heat wave:


CURRENTLY...AUGUST 2007 IN NASHVILLE IS AVERAGING 9.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS 4.6 DEGREES HOTTER THAN THE HOTTEST AUGUST
ON RECORD...WHICH WAS IN 1995.



Does anyone else besides me remember what the winter or '95-'96 was like?

I'll give you a hint... I think it was one of the few winters over the last 20 years or so that Nashville recorded ABOVE NORMAL snowfall.  I was in college at the time.  We had big snows in January, February, and March, with the the one in March being the biggest.  We also dipped below 0 that February, I believe... after a snowfall.

Again, that's not to say that we're in for a repeat.    But, it just gives you another example of a hot August, followed by extreme winter weather the following winter.



We'll probably have a mild winter... BUT, YOU NEVER KNOW...

[Snowman]

Twenty Snowiest Winters at Nashville (1884-Present)
Rank Season Amount
1 1959-60 38.5
2 1950-51 33.5
3 1917-18 30.0
4 1894-95 27.7
5 1978-79 27.5
6 1967-68 27.0
7 1977-78 25.2
8 1885-86 24.2
9 1962-63 23.7
10 1995-96 23.7
11 1963-64 22.4
12 1904-05 22.3
13 1891-92 21.8
14 1946-47 21.7
15 1976-77 21.5
16 1916-17 20.0
17 1947-48 19.8
18 1935-36 19.3
19 1898-99 19.3
20 1984-85 18.6

[Reneezelle]

verrrrrrrrrrrrrrry interesting.......