Snow possibilities for Sat/Sun Feb. 17-18

[Reneezelle]

Okay. Serious question. What time is the snow coming??

[servocrow]

Renee, please form your question in the impersonation of a Warner Bros. Character....

 

Signed,

B. Bunny, Esquire..

[kailynleto | Nightwolf]

Snow, ah say, snow is comin'!

AT MIDNIGHT SATURDAY...

The 15z ETA says so.  The 850mb temperatures as projected by this model are going to be in the –7 to –12 range Celsius.  This is enough, combined with deep moisture, to give us snow and temperatures around freezing through the day.  (I feel, however, that the February sun, even filtered, will get us just above freezing.  I could be wrong though...I'm not always right.)

18z NAM at 84 hours wants to keep our 850s around -10 to -12.  I will go with ETA because it has the better handle on cold.

LATER IN THE DAY...

GFS is too warm, but the others are too cold.  I think we should stick with a blend of GFS and what I expect ETA to say (not as cold as we want, but colder than GFS anyway).  Highs Saturday should reach around 35 in the southern areas and around 25-30 in the higher terrain of the Plateau.  Here in Nashville, I'm going to say that we stand a good chance of accumulating snow and temperatures that will probably rise above freezing...by one-fiftieth of a degree.

Updates tomorrow or later tonight...

[Reneezelle]

So wut tyme duz tweulve midnyte mean???
Is that late Fwyday so me can stay howme on Sawturdee??? Is that wut ur tewwing meee???

[Reneezelle]

Why did weather.com raise our temps on Saturday? 42?! What?!

[sistertwistr]

Snow, ah say, snow is comin'!

AT MIDNIGHT SATURDAY...

 

POOH! I've gotta wedding to go to in Hickman County on
Sunday! Yea, I wanna build a snowman...but...uh...uh...
...my nephew's getting married - FINALLY!   

[Kevin]

Prelim thoughts on Saturday...Don't shoot the messenger 

I don't think its anything impressive. Models are coming into agreement on a NO phaser. Still, a strong clipper system will move in from the northwest. Moisture overall looks limited and even the NAM especially looks a bit marginal on temperatures...but a light snow event still looks to be a good possibility across Middle and Eastern TN. As of now I don't expect West TN to see much of this system outside of flurries or very light snow with little/no accumulation. Across West TN it could actually fall as rain or a mix of rain/snow with warmer BL temperatures. For Middle TN...current thinking is a dusting to an inch. For Eastern including the Plateau here...1-2", locally higher. This could of course change so stay tuned...

[Thundersnow]

Yeah.  In spite of all this cold weather we're having and have had, nothing has just really grabbed my attention to the possibility of that 6 or 8 inch snow that I'm looking for.  There's a chance that we may have to be satisfied with the little dustings here and there and the 2 inch snow we had a couple of weeks ago.

With a pattern change toward warmer weather next week, our time is starting to run out on the winter.

I still think some cold snaps could be possible in March... maybe some big snow opportunities still not out of the question.  But, once it gets that late into the season, it tends not to stick around long.  Plus, blooming buttercups poking through the snow sort of lessens the magic of it for some reason... for me anyway.  I guess I prefer the big snows come in January and February.

But, the weather never listened to me anyway. 

[snowdog]

Oddly enough we have had plenty of cold weather over the past few weeks and we still are well below our yearly snowfall average.  Makes one wonder how we got so much snow back in the day to average about 10" a year considering how we cant buy 10" of snow no matter what pattern we are in year to year. 

Ok enough weenie complaining.    Looks like the models are drying out our chances this Saturday as it gets closer.  Obviously it is a Clipper so no one was expecting much but a good juicy Clipper can put down a few inches.   Which would be nice. 

[kailynleto | Nightwolf]

Most of the deeper moisture will miss us with this system until about breakfast Saturday morning...then it will enter.  We may see flurries early, but I see snow then rain/snow/sleet, all of it light, during the day, with highs in the mid 30s.

[amsd2dth]

How about this?  I wash cars on Saturdays for wealthy car owners and REALLY don't want to be out there if it's going to be miserable.  So let's all pray that little 'ol amsd2dth wakes up to temps below freezing (can't wash cars with ice) or maybe just enough rain to let me go back to sleep. 

The end.   

[David]

 

[Reneezelle]

No snow for us.

No snow.

Ever ever again. 

[servocrow]

This morning's AFD from OHX:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
406 AM CST FRI FEB 16 2007

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE MAP AT 09Z SHOWS A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE IS SUCH
THAT THE COLDEST AIR IS ACTUALLY ON THE BACK SIDE. THUS, EVEN
THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL PASS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATER TODAY, IT
WON`T PROVIDE AN AUTOMATIC SHOT OF WARMER AIR.

OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BREWING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WHERE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CARRY SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS OR INDIANA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY, WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DEFINITELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING, WITH A SWATH
OF POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BELIEVE 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS NORTH OF
NASHVILLE AND THE UPPER PLATEAU, WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE SNOW
THAN RAIN. WE SHOULD CLEAR BACK OUT AFTER 06Z SUNDAY AS THE 500 MB
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MID STATE.

.LONG TERM...LOOK FOR A RAPID WARM-UP DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK, WITH THE GFS MODEL ALREADY PUSHING THE SUBSEQUENT SURFACE
RIDGE EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 12Z MONDAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL GIVE A SHOT OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE    34  23  37  25 /   0  30  60  30
CLARKSVILLE  35  25  35  24 /   0  40  70  20
CROSSVILLE   31  22  34  20 /   0  10  60  40

[Crockett]

From NWS Morristown's SWS:

...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.

A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...SHOULD ALLOW MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM TO FALL AS LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY COUNTIES
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY OCCUR.

ACTUAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT BASED ON
THE LATEST TIMING...TRACK...AND EXPECTED AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...HEAVIEST SNOWFALL COULD RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.
THESE HIGHER TOTALS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...AND THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINS OF EAST TENNESSEE.  AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW COULD ALSO ACCUMULATE IN PARTS OF CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES
OF NORTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY MORNING.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS
WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM.  SO...PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE TV OR RADIO STATION...FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND FORECASTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.