Thread for the 2/15 possible snow event

[snowdog]

Just wanted to get this thread jump started.  This has been on a couple of model runs including both the GFS and Euro.  So it looks good that there will be something around this time period.  The details will hopefully work out favorably for us.  Below is the current 0z GFS...

[joemomma]

Looks like at this early point (at least) the ole 540 line is to our south.  I know that's not the be-all end-all, but ti certainly helps!  I'm sure it'll change well before the actual time gets here though...

[snowdog]

Looks like the 12z GFS run lost the storm but follows it up with another snow chance a couple of days later.  So who knows.  Typical GFS this far out.  The EURO, however, is showing us very cold and has the storm riding south of here.  Here is the Euro image below...

[joemomma]

With the storm going to our south, does that help us with moisture or hurt us?

[Thundersnow]

It depends on how far south.

We need it to go to our south, but not too far south.  A track across northern Alabama would be ideal for us... as long as cold enough air is in place.

Of course, if it's too far south, the moisture will miss us.

[Crockett]

Well after the way today's model runs have come in, I'm about ready to say "cancel winter." It's just as well; I'm ready to go fishing anyway. It is hard to believe, though, that we could be on the verge of ending winter without getting a single snowfall that reached one inch or more accumulation up here on the northern Plateau. We've been struggling for snow the last few years but I cannot remember a year in my lifetime that saw this little snow. Things have gotten so bad that after we got three-fourths of an inch last Thursday night, one of the local newspapers took a bunch of pictures and called it the "first significant snowfall of the season." 

[snowdog]

Models are really supressing this storm currently.  Looks like a big artic outbreak again after the Low passes on Tuesday.  I'm guessing the models are over doing the cold a little bit at this time but even with that the Low is currently riding through the Gulf so we would need a good shift north to put us back in the game.  Plus the Low right now doesnt look like a big precip producer. 

[Patti]

Their calling for a high of 50 on Monday. This looks like a rain event to me
 
I know the models tend to be here and there this far out, but the temps looks awful warm next week..... with the exception of Weds.
Can models be that far off as far as temps go??

[Crockett]

Their calling for a high of 50 on Monday. This looks like a rain event to me
 
I know the models tend to be here and there this far out, but the temps looks awful warm next week..... with the exception of Weds.
Can models be that far off as far as temps go??

I think it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that Monday/Tuesday will be rain, maybe ending at snow showers/flurries. But the models have handled temps pretty poorly. Until yesterday, NWS Morristown was calling for today's high to be in the low 40s on the northern Plateau. We probably won't get above freezing today.

[snowdog]

This may be a little off topic for this thread but the models still dont have a good grasp of what is going on Monday/Tuesday therefore temps are up in the air too.  If the Low rides further to our south and more artic air creeps in quicker, then the currently forecasted temps will bust.  There are just sooo many variables with the upcoming storm and the models are of course all over the place.  2 days ago it looked like a big hit for mid-Atlantic then yesterday the models said big hit for the Northeast and rain in the Mid-Atlantic.  Today they want to bring the storm further south and big hit for the mid-Atlantic again.  You get the picture though.  Back and forth with no stability. 

[servocrow]

I pulled this section off of this mornings OHX AFD as it pertains to this event:

BEYOND TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE COLD. LATEST GFS SHOWS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE BRINGING SNOW EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH THESE SHORTWAVES. WE WILL ADD MORE CLOUDS AND
FLURRIES FOR NOW AND SEE HOW LATER MODEL RUNS LOOK BEFORE ADDING
SNOW POPS.

[CookevilleWeatherGuy]

It has definitely been a difficult year to get a handle on things any more than 48+ hours out...this next system is much the same...while we will probably see rain throughout Monday and Tuesday, the changeover will be very interesting...again, it's all a timing thing with cold air and moisture...the typical Tennessee battle! 

Tuesday will be the most interesting day, IF the forecast holds true...cold air spilling in with moisture in place shows snow...maybe not accumulating in the first few hours, but maybe later in the evening.  As I said above, it all depends on how quick the moisture exits.....

I vote for SNOW and about 6" of it! 

[David]

Yeah 6 inch's has my vote also : / we will see

[sistertwistr]

The NWS Nashville current forecast discussion says:

ON TUES...GIVEN THAT THE SFC LOW IS TRACKING FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ON TUE WILL
FALL AS RAIN. ON TUES NT...THE SFC LOW PULLS EAST AND THE COLD AIR
MOVES IN. WILL CARRY A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW
MIX FOR TUES EVE. SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

We will see, closer to early next week. And, I'm all for 6" snow!
Wooo-Hooo!   

[sistertwistr]

Again....hmmmm....


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!

Click on North America.