Winter Weather Chances Feb 11-13

[snowdog]

Right now looks like a BIG hit for the NE coast on Monday/Tuesday and a big rain event for us.  Call me evil, but I would love to see the model shift southward because the wailing and gnashing of teeth on the easternuswx.com board would be highly entertaining.  Plus it might put us in the snow.   

[joemomma]

What's the latest for this weekend?  Are the new model runs out yet?

[joemomma]

Just read the NOAA forecast, not looking good for us.  They have changed it over to all rain...

[snowdog]

A couple of models yesterday wanted to bring the Low further south.  Instead of tracking across middle TN the UKMET, NOGAPS, JMA models wanted to track the storm across mid-MS/AL/GA.  The GFS and Euro, the usually more reliable models did not.  Well the GFS and Euro is now tracking the Low more southerly as well.  Of course this is only one model run and there are a lot of dynamics that are going to go into this storm so there is no real way to get a good track on this one.  But the models seem to be, as of right now, keeping the Low track further south and and bring the artic air in a little quicker.  Meaning a changeover on the backside would be possible with more moisture to work with.  Should be intereting to follow and I definitely wouldnt be throwing us out of the game just yet. 

By the way, the people up in the Northeast are on suicide watch.  You talk about snow starved, Boston has seen very little snow at all this season.  If they miss out on this one...yikes. 

[Crockett]

A couple of models yesterday wanted to bring the Low further south.  Instead of tracking across middle TN the UKMET, NOGAPS, JMA models wanted to track the storm across mid-MS/AL/GA.  The GFS and Euro, the usually more reliable models did not.  Well the GFS and Euro is now tracking the Low more southerly as well.  Of course this is only one model run and there are a lot of dynamics that are going to go into this storm so there is no real way to get a good track on this one.  But the models seem to be, as of right now, keeping the Low track further south and and bring the artic air in a little quicker.  Meaning a changeover on the backside would be possible with more moisture to work with.  Should be intereting to follow and I definitely wouldnt be throwing us out of the game just yet. 

By the way, the people up in the Northeast are on suicide watch.  You talk about snow starved, Boston has seen very little snow at all this season.  If they miss out on this one...yikes. 

I thought the 0z GFS and Euro runs were awfully interesting as well. But I noticed the 0z NAM at 84 hours seemed to have the low significantly more to the north than the other models. Outlyer or better handle?

[snowdog]

12z NAM is out now and it looks like it has the Low sitting over Houston with lots of overrunning and WAA.  This is as far out as the NAM goes though so no real idea where it wants to take the Low from there.  It is warmer than the 0z GFS and Euro.  The NAM has to be considered as do all models but remember we are looking at 84 hrs which is way out for the NAM.

[joemomma]

It's global warming, I tell ya! j/k.....

I'll keep my eyes here and follow as y'all update.  BTW, upstate NY areas are getting lake-effect snows totalling upwards of several feet.

[shaq725]

BTW, upstate NY areas are getting lake-effect snows totalling upwards of several feet.

Yea......100 feet

[Crockett]

It looks like temps will be below freezing Sunday night for much of the state with precipitation beginning before daybreak. What are the chances for freezing rain? Or will WAA build in enough ahead of the system to bring our temperatures above freezing before the onset of precipitation?

[snowdog]

12z Euro bombed the Low off the northeast coast which has the Northeast weenies very happy.   

Models disco dancing again today and bringing the Low back North today.  The best chance for any wintry precip with this storm will be the backside.  Unless the Low decides to go south by 200-300 miles.   

[kailynleto | Nightwolf]

This storm...will not happen.

As per WRF 18z, the low slides south by <100 miles.  Due to the northwestwardly biasing that has been so satanically prevalent this winter, I would say that snow is out of the question for the period Monday and early Tuesday.

BUT...

I think the GFS is trying to pick up some slight cyclogenesis over the area Tuesday night...an upper-air disturbance may develop and give us a shot of 1-2".  Dynamics don't look terribly impressive ATM but I think we may see it try to modify it for the better.

I'll return later if possible, but that's my take on it right now.  18z is probably trash tonight.

[joemomma]

Err....you know, this has been one of the coldest winters (at least the last month or so) that I can remember in a long time.  However, where has the precip been?  I don't get it....it's either 40 degrees and raining, or ice cold and no moisture to be had...it's a shame that all of this cold has been wasted.

[candi72]

Lets not loose faith here, even the NOAA changes. Seems like every forecast I have went to has changed. Ya'll keep your info posted and have a great day! Candi

[joemomma]

NOAA now has a chance for up to 1/2" for the Plateau tonight....

[Thundersnow]

I hope you see some up there, joemomma.

We can only hope that the rest of us will luck out.

In the mean time, enjoy the rain.