Where, oh where, has the cold gone??

[Eric]

What the heck ever happened to the "record-breaking" cold that was supposed to come barreling towards us?

[Reneezelle]

I don't know. Im so sad.
If its not going to be cold and snowy, it may as well be spring. I am so over this.  :cry:

[Thundersnow]

The CPC today says,

"That's our story, and we're sticking to it!"

[lyngo]

That graphic is about as cold as I've seen them go in quite some time.  I saw today that the Euro was trying to kick out the persistent cut-off low in the West.  It looks like an outlier at this point but based on what I've read, the Euro's long range verification has kicked the ole GFS' butt.  It never really bit at the monster phasing that was "supposed" to occur this week according to the GFS.  

I have nothing substantial to go by, but I really do think that we'll have a shot at a decent snowfall here in the next 2-3 weeks.  I do think that anything beyond 5 days isn't worth looking at unless there's overwhelming model consensus.  Maybe we'll get lucky and get a good old fashioned Gulf low on the tail of one of these arctic fronts.....

Holla...

[Coach B]

I gathered from reading over on EasternUSwx that the Arctic outbreak for this weekend is generally expected to hit the Northeast and just give the midwest a glancing blow.  Did sound like they expected a major reinforcing shot of Arctic air to come down towards the midwest and southeast farther out towards 10 days.

[Thundersnow]

It's the ever elusive "beyond 10 days" that gets old.  :roll:

I would like for some of those frigid temperatures to show up in under five days for a change.  :?

[Thundersnow]

I don't know if anyone else has seen tonight's 0z GFS.  But, it is showing an ARCTIC NIGHTMARE beginning around February 4 (300 hours and beyond).  :roll:

Let's just say that I'm very much looking forward to what Accuweather's 15-day forecast says in the morning.  :shock:  :lol:

Just a sneak peek...



I think the model run is on crack.  A few periods later, it showed heavy snow out in the Gulf Mexico.

But, while it went to extremes... it is important to note that some of the other models like the EURO are apparently agreeing on some pretty cold air in the first week of February.

[Ron_Jarrell]

Nashvillewx has a post on the upcoming cold blast. Looks like the GFS is trying to pull down an actual chunk of the PV in the GFS run TS posted above.

[Thundersnow]

Yep.  I saw that on air.  Justin said we may have highs in the 20s in the first week of February.

[Thundersnow]

Just some more thoughts on this...

The models have seen this cold pattern coming for quite some time.  But, probably what has fed our impatience is that the models (the GFS specifically) were wanting to bring down too much cold air too quickly.

Remember, we just came out of a pattern that featured nearly six weeks of MUCH ABOVE normal temperatures.  It was a little unrealistic to think that, like a lightswitch, we would immediately go to MUCH BELOW normal temperatures with the initial pattern change a week ago.

You have to be good before you can be great.  And, in our case, we have to settle for a period of NEAR NORMAL temperatures before we can dive into the real cold stuff.  This is a process of stepping down in temperatures.  In this pattern, we grow progressively colder in stages, with little warming trends in between.

I think a lot of us winter weather fans were probably deflated after a week of blah weather after all the hype about the pattern change.  But, as it's looking right now... the best may be yet to come about the first of the month of February.

That's my editorial for the day.  :wink:

[snowdog]

Funny, I was thinking the exact same thing lastnight.  I was a little out of touch with reality in wanting the pattern to flip on a dime from one extreme to another.  The models helped feed that fantasy as well.  Looking back it was a bit unrealistic and looking forward the bigger picture looks pretty good.  Everything seems to be coming together for us to actually get some artic cold in here for a few days..now we just need a storm..or two during that timeframe.  

[Ron_Jarrell]

I got this from Easternuswx's Raleighwx. GFS 2m temps - the mets have never seen a model output this cold (keep in mind those temps are 'F NOT 'C):

[Coach B]

Just some more thoughts on this...

You have to be good before you can be great.  And, in our case, we have to settle for a period of NEAR NORMAL temperatures before we can dive into the real cold stuff.  This is a process of stepping down in temperatures.  In this pattern, we grow progressively colder in stages, with little warming trends in between.

I think a lot of us winter weather fans were probably deflated after a week of blah weather after all the hype about the pattern change.  But, as it's looking right now... the best may be yet to come about the first of the month of February.

That's my editorial for the day.  :wink:

I see with the cold forcast you have a much better attitude today.  :wink:

[Thundersnow]

Coach,

That's 'cause I'm a big time winter weather weenie.

I need help.   :lol:

[Thundersnow]

Ron,

Today's Accuweather 15-day, since I understand it bases its forecast on the 0z GFS, isn't showing temperatures nearly that cold (30s high, teens lows).  I wonder if they average in a little climatology to keep their forecast from going to the extremes that the GFS wants to predict.

At any rate, we're due some below zero temperatures... especially if we can get some snow cover beforehand.

But, one thing at a time.