1/24-25 Event? (according to the 0z GFS)

[Thundersnow]

Hold up on the snacks....


We may have a potential "meal" on our hands based on tonight's 0z GFS:









If I'm reading this right, we have cold air moving down from the north (it is showing the 0-degree line WELL south of TN)... at the same time, a GULF LOW is moving across the Southeast...

Incidently, this could end up being a HUGE blizzard in the Northeast.

Someone please correct me if I'm looking at this wrong.  We'll need to see if tomorrow's runs maintain this trend.

[Eric]

I'm an amateur all the way and I'm diggin what those models are showin'.  Ample gulf moisture with the 0' line south of us...

Does that coincide with the clipper that's supposed to roll through here Thursday?

[Thundersnow]

Yes.  I think that would be what is referred to as a "phase" between the energy diving southward (the clipper) and the system moving out of the western Gulf.  Such a scenario would aid in the development of a low pressure area in the Southeast.

That is the classic Big Snow scenario for TN.

[Thundersnow]

Let me throw a flag of caution though.  I don't recall any of the previous model runs hinting at anything quite like this.

This scenario seems to have jumped at us out of nowhere.

I'll feel better about it if we see what the model runs do with it tomorrow.

[Eric]

Sounds like chicken tonight, like chicken tonight!

[jmundie]

if its gonna show up randomly on a model though, the 00z is the one we want it to show up on.

where is teh 2m zero line. its nice for it to be below freezing at 850, but if its not below freezing at teh surface, it will have trouble accumulating.

[Thundersnow]

I think this one might help get a better idea of what may happen at the surface.



It looks like the "540 line" here cuts right across Middle TN.

If I'm not mistaken, I think that means close to the freezing mark at the surface.

I could be wrong, of course.

[Thundersnow]

Nashville AFD this morning:

 .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
 NEW DEVELOPMENT IN LATEST GFS IS WITH ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPING
 SOUTHWEST. PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TUE NIGHT
 WITH COLD AIR BOTTLE UP NORTH. SFC WAVE/MOISTURE DRIFTS EAST WITH
 MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED NIGHT/THU.
 COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR MID TN WED NIGHT AND THU. MUCH COLDER
 THU/FRI.


Apparently, the other models do not agree with last night's 0z GFS on that system.  So, this is certainly not a sure thing.  Even the model run, as indicated, doesn't put Middle TN in the heaviest precipitation during that time.  But, at least, that's a potential scenario where subtle changes in the track, the amount of moisture, and cold air avaiable can make huge differences.  The 6z GFS this morning still has the system, but it is further Southeast and throws less moisture our way.

This may have been a fluke in the model run, but I'll wait and see what the 12z says today as to whether to continue following the possibility.

[Ron_Jarrell]

12Z OUT:  

WOW.

Maybe.

A.

Snowball's.

Chance.
/pun intended...

102 hrs:

108 hrs:

114 hrs:

120 hrs:


And its done.

Was it as good for you as it was for me?

[servocrow]

Dang, WHO'S SMOKING???

 :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

Well, hopefully this model will help choke back the bitter bile of resentment I'm feeling about tonight...

sniff....

[Thundersnow]

The 12z is back to looking more like the 0z, compared to the 6z.

Taken literally, it looks like we mainly get wrap-around snow showers on the northwest side of the low (just guessing).

Still time to watch it.

[Ron_Jarrell]

TS - I think this needs to be watched a lot more closely. I have a gut feeling on the H placement. That would put the ULL developing too far S on the model. Also we've got that trough diving out of Canada with assoc clipper. If this cyclogenesis happens, we could see the ULL forming more to the N in assoc with trough.

[Thundersnow]

Also, Ron, an initial placement of the Low too far to the south of us by the GFS is not necessarily a bad thing.

The GFS sometimes shows a tendency to place systems too far to the southeast in early runs... then it trends things northwest over time.  I'm sure that's not always the case.  But, it is something to keep in mind, from what I've noticed.

[Chris]

It interesting to note that The Weather Channel and Accuweather really have no mention of this possible winter weather event for us next week. Accuweather mentioned a chance of flurries Wed night. In fact, the TWC shows highs mainly in the low to mid 40s for most of next week. Looks very promising if the models continue to hold.  

[Thundersnow]

Well, hopefully this model will help choke back the bitter bile of resentment I'm feeling about tonight...

Maybe I've finally become jaded, calloused, and numb after years of disappointment, but I honestly don't even feel bummed about this weekend's system.  I'm not sure I ever really bought into it.  We basically had one day of model runs earlier this week that made it look like a potential for us.  I don't think we ever quite had enough to bank on.

At this point, I've become caught up in the hobby of watching future things unfold in the models and pretty much move on when a certain system doesn't work out for us.  :roll:

Oh well...