"Snacks between meals" (winter wx 1/21-1/31)

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[Thundersnow]

Check this out...



I don't believe I've ever seen them use that dark a shade of blue on the temperature departure map.  :shock:  :shock:  :shock:

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2007
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JAN 25 - 29 2007  TODAYS GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. AFTER POOR MODEL CONTINUITY EARLY IN THE WEEK... ALL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS HAVE FINALLY LOCKED INTO A TRANSISTION IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. THE GFS ENSEMBLE FORECASTS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) AND ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) INDICES TO BECOME RAPIDLY NEGATIVE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE NEGATIVE INDICES STRONGLY FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EAST AND RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE NORTHEAST.


We've got to get something out of this pattern over the next two weeks... or my name isn't Thundersnow.  :?

[Thundersnow]

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 27 - FEB 02, 2007:  THE COLD PATTERN FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WEEK 2. IF THE FORECASTED HEIGHT PATTERN VERIFIES... THEN RECORD SETTING COLD IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING FLORIDA.

[lyngo]

Just add moisture and we'll all sing Kumbaya!! :lol:

[Thundersnow]

Again, there's something that bugs me about this.  The CPC is saying "record-setting" cold possible in the Southeast.

This is the coldest part of the year we're talking about.  Then, I see maps and discussions like the one above.

With that kind of talk, I start to expect to see forecasts with BELOW ZERO temperatures around here.

Yet, the NWS is showing highs in the upper 30s by next Friday.  That's hardly remarkable for January.

Could the NWS being playing it conservative on the magnitude of the cold compared to the CPC and others?  :?:

Of course, given winters around here over the last several years, it's hard to even imagine it getting as cold as what the CPC now seems to be implying.

[Thundersnow]

Bring on the snacks!


(Nashville AFD)
 .LONG TERM...BY LATE NEXT WEEK, EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH
 TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH A TURN TOWARD COLDER
 WEATHER AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS BY THURSDAY.

[servocrow]

You know...I typically only get visitors about once or twice a year...My parents typically come down every year for my birthday (the rest of my family BELIEVE I-24 and I-65 run in only ONE direction)...I have a feeling, I'm not going to have visitors this year...

'sigh'....

[Ron_Jarrell]

Bring on the snacks!

Snacks:


FROZEN SNACKS:

[servocrow]

Cripes, now I'm hungry....mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

[jmundie]

looks like the nws is still going for some mix before turning to all rain sunday. The models are showing no mix. Is the NWS betting on evaporative cooling or something?

[Thundersnow]

I'm guessing they're thinking the models are overdoing the WAA.

[Ron_Jarrell]

jmundie - read my post in the thread regarding this weekends storm here:http://www.armleg.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=387&start=160&mforum=tennesseeweathe

They specifically mention evap cooling.

[Thundersnow]

We'll probably see things like this come and go in the models over the next several days:



That is for Monday, January 29... WAAAAY too far out there to be credible at this point.  

But, if it did verify, it could be a decent snowfall for us.

[Ron_Jarrell]

Yeah but he that giveth can also take away.

Clipper looks to miss us with any precip on Thurs per the 18Z GFS. Flurries maybe, snow no. Still way too far out to count on it and it's an 18Z run at that. So hopes still up for a light snack.

[Thundersnow]

Definitely, that's right.  I seriously doubt that scenario on the 29th will be in the 0z, much less tomorrow's runs... as that map shows it.

Just giving an example of the kinds of things we're looking at for educational purposes.  :thumbsup

[Snowman]

The clipper systems sometimes can be a good couple of inches of snow, particulary for the eastern half of the state.