Good snow juju - Feb 1-3??

[Ron_Jarrell]

6Z still has it, but deepens it more and taking it on a coast hugging track as a Miller A. This is looking good since it's been hanging onto this feature right where we would expect it for days now.

I won't post graphics for the run, but I would encourage you to go look -216hr GFS - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fpc.shtml

[snowdog]

It does indeed look very good.  Of course we are talking about the 6z and it is 216 hours out.  If we did get a little snow out of that storm it would stick around for awhile.  Just think how cold we could get if we had a snowpack when that polar vortex slips down our way.  WOW!!

[Coach B]

 If we did get a little snow out of that storm it would stick around for awhile.  Just think how cold we could get if we had a snowpack when that polar vortex slips down our way.  WOW!!

Now that's how you put some snow days to use.    

[lyngo]

FWIW, the GFS ensembles generally do not agree with the Op GFS regarding this "potential" storm.  Maybe we'll see more ensemble support along with support from Euro and its' ensembles down the road.  Bottom line is I wouldn't get my hopes up just yet....

[Thundersnow]

Still looking "interesting" for about February 2 on the 12z GFS...

[Ron_Jarrell]

Yeah TS, I was just over at NCEP looking at the 12Z. Honestly, the GFS is scaring me right now. I don't like the looks of it, and although I would love to see the GFS forecast as the surface map come Feb 1, I don't trust it. Even this far out though it wants to warm things up to borderline 0'C. ARGGG..... I'm done with the long range. I'm sticking to under 168 hrs and even that isnt reliable.  :evil:

They're going to be doing a rework on the GFS after this winter!

[snowdog]

What a complete change from the 0z look.  WOW!!  It goes from crazy artic cold to back to normal temps.  LOL.  You have to laugh.  I think the more important thing to remember is most models (and some Mets) have come to agreement on the artic signal in early Feb.  I highly doubt it will be as severe as the 0z GFS was showing but I also highlt doubt it will be "normal" temps the 12z is now showing.

[Thundersnow]

Yeah, like I said before, these long-range models are unreliable right now.  Thanks for reminding me of that.  Seeing these scenarios in the future can be seductive, but it's just not trustworthy more than a few days out.  I did notice that even the February 2 storm is borderline on the 0-degree line now.  Of course, what else is new.

The GFS seems to be out of control right now.  It's as if it's lost all sense of base line.

[kailynleto | Nightwolf]

Yeah TS, I was just over at NCEP looking at the 12Z. Honestly, the GFS is scaring me right now. I don't like the looks of it, and although I would love to see the GFS forecast as the surface map come Feb 1, I don't trust it. Even this far out though it wants to warm things up to borderline 0'C. ARGGG..... I'm done with the long range. I'm sticking to under 168 hrs and even that isnt reliable.  :evil:

They're going to be doing a rework on the GFS after this winter!

Rework?  GFS to me stands for (can't say it here lol).  They need to TRASH it and extend another model.

I don't know if I even want to use it for any more forecasting ever after its terrible performance this winter.

[Ron_Jarrell]

Wow. I just got through reading an Event Report from the NWS in SC.

The important part for us is the model that had it pegged and has been consistent with winter weather in the South.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/23January2003.pdf

Read end of section 3 and 4 if nothing else.

[Thundersnow]

Well, the 0z GFS seemed to take this system out of the forecast.

But, at least the 6z this morning has it back.  The 0-degree line is further south, so the snow potential looks better than yesterday's 12z.  However, there isn't as much moisture as in yesterday's 12z.  Also, it has it coming in a day earlier.



But, the GFS is showing terrible run-to-run consistency.  So, again, this is still too far away to really trust.

[Reneezelle]

Whats the latest guys???

[Ron_Jarrell]

About the same. GEM still showing a GoM Low that tracks along the trough and give us a chance at some light QPF. I think it may trend more northerly. We'll keep our fingers crossed, but still looks good.

[Eric]

Sorry...

[Reneezelle]

Yes I know I am a halfway intelligent 26 year old. But explain it to me like I am 2. Heavy snowfall to the north as in north of that pink line, or in wayyy north where people have weird accents?  :lol: [/i]