Winter Weather Jan 15-16?

[Ron_Jarrell]

Just thought I'd post a heads up in case something actually comes of this. Euro latest runs showing some -sn across most of TN on the 15th with fropa. There's plenty of chatter on some other board by pro mets that are throwing this out there for a SE storm.

[Chris]

Yes, the Birmingham news channel ABC 33/40 site, alabamawx.com, metioned this possible situation on their site this afternoon-very interesting:

" ICE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK? Early next week we have your classic case of shallow cold air at the surface, with warm, moist air riding up and over the top with a southwest flow aloft. Sure looks like somebody across the Deep South will have a problem with freezing rain; but at this point it is way too early to even try and be specific. Might be a problem for Memphis or Nashville, or maybe as far south as I-20. Just keep in mind we might have the first ice threat of 2007 next week somewhere across the southern U.S. in the Monday-Tuesday time frame (January 15-16). All we can do for now is say “stay tuned”."

[Snowman]

I am also thinking along the lines of Ice and Sleet rather than snow. Ron up in Kentucky may see some though. Needs to be watched throughout the week.

[Thundersnow]

The local TV mets aren't biting on that at all yet.  2, 4, and 5 were all showing rain and upper 40s on Monday... not even a mention of what was possibly to come after that (at least from what I heard at the 6:00 broadcasts tonight).  The NWS is showing the same, pretty much.  So, they must all be playing it conservative and going with the NWS.

Apparently, there's quite a divergence in what the models are saying on the timing of the frontal passage, as well as how fast the cold air moves in.

[Snowman]

Well they can not come out screaming ice storm on the 5oclock news or you would set panic. Seriously with the models no where near a convergence and many things up in the air I think it is a smart move.

[Thundersnow]

True.  Also, I imagine the memory of last February 10 still lingers in the back of their minds.

[Thundersnow]

The Nashville AFD this morning is hinting at something possibly on Monday night or Tuesday (1/15-16):

 .LONG TERM...BY SATURDAY, THE ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES TO THE OHIO
 VALLEY AND BECOMES STATIONARY, WAITING FOR AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
 TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND PHASE IN WITH SOUTHWESTERN
 U.S. TROUGH AND SWING FRONT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
 MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
 AND, WITH UPPER FLOW REMAINING FROM THE SOUTHWEST, EXPECT AN
 OVERRUNNING TYPE PRECIPITATION PATTERN TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SHALLOW
 ARCTIC AIR MASS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR
 RAIN OR SNOW DEVELOPING.

(Since this possible event extends into the 16th, I have updated the thread title to reflect this.)

[Coach B]

Birmingham had this to say this am:
BY DAY 8...FORECAST PROFILES PRESENT A VERY INTERESTING SCENARIO
 MAINLY FOR AREAS JUST TO OUR NORTH FORTUNATELY. AS MENTIONED
 ABOVE...IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO GET EXCITED ABOUT WHAT THE MODELS
 ARE SHOWING...BUT FOR THOSE THAT ENJOY COOLER AND MORE TYPICAL
 WEATHER CONDITIONS...IT IS INTERESTING WATER-COOLER CONVERSATION
 MATERIAL. STAYED ON THE WARM (ENOUGH) SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN PRELIM
 DAY 8 GRIDS...AND WILL GLADLY DEFER TO THE DAY SHIFT TO MAKE THE
 FINAL CALL.

[Thundersnow]

News 2 is now showing the snow possibility on Monday.

Let the local hype begin!!!  

[HMMWV]

We had a bit of snow  :snowwink out here in Clay County this morning.

Watched the news to see if our county schools were closed or late.
They finally showed Clay County opening  2 hours late  just minutes ago while we were waiting for the bus to arrive.

Time to go back to bed.  LOL

[Eric]

Was just over at EasternUSwx.com and the thing over there is everyone thinks this storm will stay east of Tennessee bringing snow/ice to north GA and the vicinity.  COuldn't quite pick up on what that means for us in the mid-state.  I'm opening up the floor for anyone with suggestions??!!

[servocrow]

FIRST OFF, let me say, I'm not the best one to read the model maps...but looking at the GFS for Monday...It's one of those "oh crap" situations we always get into...

Will the moisture be gone before the cold gets here?  Looks like we are on the deficit end again...BUT AGAIN...I would wait until some of the other guys get to look at it and some of the other models too...

I'm just looking at the GFS right now...

http://www.weatherunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=NAM&domain=US

[Woodvegas]

If you blend the Euro and the GFS we may be in good position for snow.

[Reneezelle]

It.Better.Snow.


End of story.

[Thundersnow]

It is very unlikely, if we do get a good snow, that we'll be able to follow it days and days beforehand.  Chances are... we won't even see it coming until we get within a couple of days of it, or less...

That's the way these things usually go.  As far as models go, next week is still too far away to nail down any specific events.  We'll probably see a couple of phantom snow storms come and go in the models between now and next week.  That's just the nature of the beast...