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Author Topic: GOAT Snowstorm  (Read 10230 times)

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Offline gcbama

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Re: GOAT Snowstorm
« Reply #45 on: January 14, 2019, 11:15:15 AM »
agreed... that KY storm was the one I referenced earlier...back in our good days of the 90's early 200's we used to get those types of 6-8 inch storms almost yearly....now it has totally shifted to KY which is so dis heartening for snow lovers...

that particular storm RUINED model watching for me the rest of that year ( I am back on the wagon now lol) They DAY before the storm all of TN was going to get hammered according to models and forecast for 5-8 inches widespread....and it completely shifted north in 24 hours and I got all rain :(....

the last time we had a statewide great storm was 2010 that I remember pretty much at both borders everybody got at least 3 inches plus...I ended up with 9

Offline mempho

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Re: GOAT Snowstorm
« Reply #46 on: January 14, 2019, 02:50:25 PM »
Heh- sounds like the thread was started over a misunderstanding (someone suggested the political discussion in the Winter thread get split out, but a thread on this system got created instead).

I've never felt particularly optimistic about this coming weekend, other than perhaps the pattern changer to usher in a cold air mass, and then we'll see what comes next week and beyond. If we do get something of any significance next weekend, hopefully that's just a precursor to what's to come. But, I won't be overly shocked if we still get scant little even in the upcoming pattern. I've seen too many disappointing winters go by to get invested in anything more than cautious interest.

People forget that I have a long history of starting threads with very little model support anyway- it's just been almost 3 years since I've started one- the last one being the storm that hit around Valentine's in 2015. 


Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline Michael

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Re: GOAT Snowstorm
« Reply #47 on: January 14, 2019, 03:10:52 PM »
People forget that I have a long history of starting threads with very little model support anyway- it's just been almost 3 years since I've started one- the last one being the storm that hit around Valentine's in 2015.
The only thing that matters is...what’s your record. If it’s sub .500, you’re fired lol.
Frankly, it better be .800 or better! lol


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Offline Hunter_McDonald

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Re: GOAT Snowstorm
« Reply #48 on: January 14, 2019, 03:12:35 PM »
Could someone out there give a little more on the eps?


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Offline mempho

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Re: GOAT Snowstorm
« Reply #49 on: January 14, 2019, 03:18:59 PM »
The only thing that matters is...what’s your record. If it’s sub .500, you’re fired lol.
Frankly, it better be .800 or better! lol


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Michael- there is a way to check a user's "batting average."  For instance, if you wanted to compute mine, you would just hit my name and then hit "show posts" under my profile pic and then hit "Topics" and just look at the winter storm threads.  Make sure you include any threads that get "split" from the original topic.     ;) ;) ;)

I will curiously await your assessment. 



Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline Michael

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Re: GOAT Snowstorm
« Reply #50 on: January 14, 2019, 03:38:38 PM »
Michael- there is a way to check a user's "batting average."  For instance, if you wanted to compute mine, you would just hit my name and then hit "show posts" under my profile pic and then hit "Topics" and just look at the winter storm threads.  Make sure you include any threads that get "split" from the original topic.     ;) ;) ;)

I will curiously await your assessment.
Haha. Based on your confidence, how about you save me some time and tell me? I was just hoping you wasn’t one of those jinx-the-storm thread starters lol.


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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: GOAT Snowstorm
« Reply #51 on: January 14, 2019, 03:53:32 PM »
People forget that I have a long history of starting threads with very little model support anyway- it's just been almost 3 years since I've started one- the last one being the storm that hit around Valentine's in 2015.
You started the thread a week early on my epic sleet storm. Carry on !!!

Offline Clint

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Re: GOAT Snowstorm
« Reply #52 on: January 14, 2019, 04:13:37 PM »
You started the thread a week early on my epic sleet storm. Carry on !!!

Yes, that storm was a lot of fun. I remember my kids and I having a blast sledding afterwards. If remember correctly, he didn't have any model data to support starting that thread. LOL

Offline StormNine

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Re: GOAT Snowstorm
« Reply #53 on: January 14, 2019, 07:16:30 PM »
Quote
Friday Night - Sunday...

...Impactful Storm System Possible Again This Weekend...

Another significant storm system appears possible through the
weekend as strong surface cyclogenesis occurs to the lee side of the
Rockies into the southern Plains, and then ejects out into the TN
Valley ahead of a strong shortwave. Although timing/strength and
fine details will continue to vary with each model run, models are
overall consistent with the idea of a potent storm system. At this
point, it appears that we would initially see rain with a warm front
lifting north over our area. Then, a warm sector could become
established as the surface low passes somewhere near or just north
of our area. If this occurs, then a severe QLCS would would be
possible either with linearly forced convection in the right
entrance region of a strong upper jet, or with a combination of that
and perhaps a weak instability gradient. Much of that would depend
on the surface low tracking further north. Flooding would be a
threat along with any severe convection in this scenario.

The other scenario would be the surface low tracking to our south
across the TN Valley or Gulf Coast States, keeping cooler air in
place and a better chance of seeing a rain, to mixed precip, to snow
setup. Regardless of where the low ends up tracking, there is a
pretty decent chance to see snow on the back side as cold air
quickly spills in behind the strong cold front.

Still too early to nail down fine details, but as the previous
discussion mentioned there is pretty decent agreement and confidence
that some sort of strong storm system looks to impact the area. Stay
up to date of the latest forecasts as flooding, severe weather,
mixed precip, snow, or any combination of the four are possibilities
at this juncture
.

The thoughts from the NWS of Louisville 

Offline JayCee

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Re: GOAT Snowstorm
« Reply #54 on: January 14, 2019, 07:20:31 PM »
I pulled this graphic from the KY Weather Center site.  Look at the impressive temperature drop coming this weekend!  You'll be able to watch the temperature drop minute by minute if you have a digital thermometer. 



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"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Michael

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Re: GOAT Snowstorm
« Reply #55 on: January 14, 2019, 07:26:40 PM »
I pulled this graphic from the KY Weather Center site.  Look at the impressive temperature drop coming this weekend!  You'll be able to watch the temperature drop minute by minute if you have a digital thermometer. 





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Offline mempho

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Re: GOAT Snowstorm
« Reply #56 on: January 14, 2019, 08:58:19 PM »
Haha. Based on your confidence, how about you save me some time and tell me? I was just hoping you wasn’t one of those jinx-the-storm thread starters lol.


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You started the thread a week early on my epic sleet storm. Carry on !!!
The only thread I ever started with widespread model support was actually started after MEG issued a WSW.  It failed.

After that, I started two threads between 9 and 15 days out with no real model support.  While they both ended up being legit winter storms for the area, I have p-type issues.  While they were supposed to be snowstorms, I'm like the NWS-  I'll take verification any way that I can get it (and both instances were sleet storms)

Now, here's my 3rd trip to the plate, where I put my 1.000 batting average on the line and maybe we can get a home run this time.

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline mempho

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Re: GOAT Snowstorm
« Reply #57 on: January 14, 2019, 08:59:15 PM »
The thoughts from the NWS of Louisville
I hope Louisville likes suppression.

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: GOAT Snowstorm
« Reply #58 on: January 14, 2019, 09:25:56 PM »
The only thread I ever started with widespread model support was actually started after MEG issued a WSW.  It failed.

After that, I started two threads between 9 and 15 days out with no real model support.  While they both ended up being legit winter storms for the area, I have p-type issues.  While they were supposed to be snowstorms, I'm like the NWS-  I'll take verification any way that I can get it (and both instances were sleet storms)

Now, here's my 3rd trip to the plate, where I put my 1.000 batting average on the line and maybe we can get a home run this time.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

If this pans out (in a big way), we’ll call this...

The Great Mem Pho’ Sho’ Snow.


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Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: GOAT Snowstorm
« Reply #59 on: January 14, 2019, 10:09:31 PM »
00Z GFS is just laughing at everyone with zero flakes given.


 

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