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Author Topic: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat  (Read 11480 times)

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Offline dwagner88

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #435 on: December 08, 2018, 10:20:11 PM »
Light snow reported in Dalton, GA at 39.  I wonder if that's an error.  They aren't even in the mountains.  But it's showing up as an official report.
Dual pol precip depiction says this might be legit. There is a large area of snow stretching from Dalton eastward. Doesn't make sense to me. The whole column should be above freezing up to 850 there.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline JayCee

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #436 on: December 08, 2018, 10:25:36 PM »
Dual pol precip depiction says this might be legit. There is a large area of snow stretching from Dalton eastward. Doesn't make sense to me. The whole column should be above freezing up to 850 there.

That's what I was thinking.  Snowing in Dalton, GA at 39, and raining here at 39.  Freaky.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline dwagner88

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #437 on: December 08, 2018, 10:27:45 PM »
That's what I was thinking.  Snowing in Dalton, GA at 39, and raining here at 39.  Freaky.
If that is falling as snow there, it is 45-55 DBZ. Would be a total whiteout.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline Tamlin

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #438 on: December 08, 2018, 10:28:00 PM »
LZK has extended their WWA south to Pine Bluff and Monticello. Both are reporting snow at the moment.

Offline Michael

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #439 on: December 08, 2018, 10:31:52 PM »
Folks. We just got thunder with a rain/snow/sleet mix. Starting to come down good.


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Offline JayCee

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #440 on: December 08, 2018, 10:34:55 PM »
Wow.  The weather service needs to work on their "point and click" forecast.  It doesn't even come close to matching up with the "zone" forecast.  Talk about creating total confusion.   

Here is my "point and click" forecast:

Quote
Tonight
Rain. Low around 34. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Sunday
Rain and snow before 1pm, then rain between 1pm and 5pm, then rain and snow likely after 5pm. High near 38. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Sunday Night
Rain and snow likely before 8pm, then a chance of rain, snow, and sleet between 8pm and 9pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Now here is my "zone" forecast:

Quote
Rest Of Tonight
Rain in the evening, then rain or snow after midnight. Snow accumulation up to 2 inches. Lows in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
Sunday
Rain or snow in the morning and early afternoon, then rain or snow likely late in the afternoon. Snow accumulation up to 3 inches. Total snow accumulation up to 4 inches. Near steady temperature in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
Sunday Night
Cloudy. A chance of light sleet in the evening. A chance of rain or snow through the night. A chance of light sleet early in the morning. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. North winds 10 mph or less. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

How is anyone supposed to figure out what it's going to do with two different forecasts for the same area?
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Greyhound

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #441 on: December 08, 2018, 10:37:03 PM »
Wow.  The weather service needs to work on their "point and click" forecast.  It doesn't even come close to matching up with the "zone" forecast.  Talk about creating total confusion.   

Here is my "point and click" forecast:

Now here is my "zone" forecast:

How is anyone supposed to figure out what it's going to do with two different forecasts for the same area?
.

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Offline JayCee

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #442 on: December 08, 2018, 10:40:23 PM »
.

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That's as good an explanation as any.  Between the models and the National Weather Service, my head is spinning.   
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Greyhound

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #443 on: December 08, 2018, 10:46:31 PM »
Yeah....agree Jaycee.  Weather Channel Local on the 8's showed Knoxvegas with 2" of rain overnight, and a half inch of rain tomorrow.  Temps ranging 32-37.  And I'm over here whimpering...."but, but, but....that's not what the NAM showed!!!"

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Offline schneitzeit

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #444 on: December 08, 2018, 10:48:30 PM »
Yeah....agree Jaycee.  Weather Channel Local on the 8's showed Knoxvegas with 2" of rain overnight, and a half inch of rain tomorrow.  Temps ranging 32-37.  And I'm over here whimpering...."but, but, but....that's not what the NAM showed!!!"

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Their forecast hasn't budged from that in 3 days.

Online BRUCE

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #445 on: December 08, 2018, 10:48:52 PM »
LZK has extended their WWA south to Pine Bluff and Monticello. Both are reporting snow at the moment.
yep... the precip back over eastern Arkansas is turning in to snow now... some pretty bright bands within the band also
Come on severe wx season...

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #446 on: December 08, 2018, 10:52:09 PM »
Really having my doubts about this  :-\

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #447 on: December 08, 2018, 10:54:50 PM »
yep... the precip back over eastern Arkansas is turning in to snow now... some pretty bright bands within the band also
Are you getting any ice there Bruce? We have had freezing rain for about 3-4 hours now. No sleet yet, but we just dropped down to 31.2 here. Maybe we can switch to a little sleet or snow soon. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Online BRUCE

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #448 on: December 08, 2018, 10:59:03 PM »
Are you getting any ice there Bruce? We have had freezing rain for about 3-4 hours now. No sleet yet, but we just dropped down to 31.2 here. Maybe we can switch to a little sleet or snow soon. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
just bout hour ago  we finally started getting freezing rain...mainly on the vehicles thus far... but yeah... I like the radar returns back in Arkansas for some snow later...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Clint

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #449 on: December 08, 2018, 10:59:41 PM »
yep... the precip back over eastern Arkansas is turning in to snow now... some pretty bright bands within the band also

Looks like the southern end of the trowel has begun to change over to snow from Monticello, Ar. to Greenville, Ms.

Only problem is it appears the precipitation is breaking up to the SW of that area.

 

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