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Author Topic: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat  (Read 11476 times)

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Offline Eric

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #135 on: December 07, 2018, 08:38:40 AM »
From looking at the 12k NAM, it may not even rain North of 40!  3K NAM looks much better!  What is the difference in the two?

Mainly resolution.  The 3k "sees" at a finer resolution; i.e. can see minute details that the 12k can't.
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Offline Charles L.

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #136 on: December 07, 2018, 08:39:28 AM »
From looking at the 12k NAM, it may not even rain North of 40!  3K NAM looks much better!  What is the difference in the two?

3km still gets precipitation up into KY...12km, as you mentioned, doesn’t even get it north of I-40.

Biggest discrepancy between the two I have seen thus far with this system.
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Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #137 on: December 07, 2018, 08:49:39 AM »
Fear the NW Trend! ::rofl:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Offline Curt

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #138 on: December 07, 2018, 08:51:54 AM »
3k Nam actually brings the freezing line down below 40 into the Memphis metro. Getting more interesting with the wintry mix.

Offline Charles L.

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #139 on: December 07, 2018, 08:52:18 AM »
Fear the NW Trend! ::rofl:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

24 hours ago I was fearing we would be too warm...now I am fearing we won’t get any precip at all.  ::doh::

Given how the GFS has been, I am assuming this upcoming run will have the precip straddling AL/TN border. 😂
« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 08:54:10 AM by Charles L. »
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Offline Michael

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #140 on: December 07, 2018, 09:45:15 AM »
Isn’t the 3k NAM most accurate within 48 hours?


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Offline Michael

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #141 on: December 07, 2018, 09:52:43 AM »



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Offline memphishogfan

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #142 on: December 07, 2018, 10:10:15 AM »
I don't even know how the 3k is coming up with its solution.  4 inches of snow, and there is a warm nose and temps in the mid 30's for my area.

I am putting my money on the GFS having the right solution. 
« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 10:12:13 AM by memphishogfan »

Offline Michael

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December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #143 on: December 07, 2018, 10:12:19 AM »
12z CMC/12z 3k NAM vs EURO/GFS
Who’ll win for Northeast Tennessee?

Edit: Actually, the 00z EURO was similar to today’s 12z CMC. So, GFS seems to be the outlier unless 12z EURO follows GFS lead.


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« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 10:14:36 AM by Michael »

Offline Skillsweather

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #144 on: December 07, 2018, 11:13:42 AM »
the low was so far south with this system anyways we actually wanted that due to the warm air ect but in the end it kept the precip shield further south too plus with the high helping to erode any precip that moved to far from the low. if we just was deeper in winter we could of had this low further north and got the precip and been able to have a deeper cold and deal with the lows warmness. Long as the low wasn't riding over us or north of us and thats usually the case for us later on that or the high isn't there like it was in this case so not a strong funneling of colder air. At least we had something to hope for all week in early december vs having it be 70 this week lol

Offline Michael

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #145 on: December 07, 2018, 11:28:38 AM »
Andddd the FV3 says I get 14” lol
3k NAM says 11”
Canadian says about 10”
GFS says Dusting
Waiting on Euro.

All local mets seem to be going with GFS. All rain in the northern valley.


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Online BRUCE

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #146 on: December 07, 2018, 11:41:14 AM »
I don't even know how the 3k is coming up with its solution.  4 inches of snow, and there is a warm nose and temps in the mid 30's for my area.

I am putting my money on the GFS having the right solution.
think 3k nam. Picking up sleet also ... why showing total 4 inches
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Charles L.

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #147 on: December 07, 2018, 11:44:52 AM »
The WRF-NMM is rather interesting...actually shows parts of west TN/western middle switching to snow at the end of its 12z run.
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Offline Michael

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #148 on: December 07, 2018, 12:23:33 PM »
12z CMC/12z 3k NAM vs EURO/GFS
Who’ll win for Northeast Tennessee?

Edit: Actually, the 00z EURO was similar to today’s 12z CMC. So, GFS seems to be the outlier unless 12z EURO follows GFS lead.


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NE TN update. Canadian, Euro, 3k NAM, GFS Fv3 12z runs all show 10"+ for Morristown to Tri-Cities.
GFS says 0 to maybe a dusting.  ::shaking_finger::

Offline Charles L.

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #149 on: December 07, 2018, 12:31:46 PM »
Both the WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW are in our camps! I’m not sure what their verification is like compared to the other short range models though.
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