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Author Topic: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat  (Read 15861 times)

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Offline Curt

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #135 on: December 07, 2018, 08:51:54 AM »
3k Nam actually brings the freezing line down below 40 into the Memphis metro. Getting more interesting with the wintry mix.

Offline Charles L.

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #136 on: December 07, 2018, 08:52:18 AM »
Fear the NW Trend! ::rofl:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

24 hours ago I was fearing we would be too warm...now I am fearing we won’t get any precip at all.  ::doh::

Given how the GFS has been, I am assuming this upcoming run will have the precip straddling AL/TN border. 😂
« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 08:54:10 AM by Charles L. »
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Offline Michael

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #137 on: December 07, 2018, 09:45:15 AM »
Isn’t the 3k NAM most accurate within 48 hours?


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Offline Michael

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #138 on: December 07, 2018, 09:52:43 AM »



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Offline memphishogfan

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #139 on: December 07, 2018, 10:10:15 AM »
I don't even know how the 3k is coming up with its solution.  4 inches of snow, and there is a warm nose and temps in the mid 30's for my area.

I am putting my money on the GFS having the right solution. 
« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 10:12:13 AM by memphishogfan »

Offline Michael

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December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #140 on: December 07, 2018, 10:12:19 AM »
12z CMC/12z 3k NAM vs EURO/GFS
Who’ll win for Northeast Tennessee?

Edit: Actually, the 00z EURO was similar to today’s 12z CMC. So, GFS seems to be the outlier unless 12z EURO follows GFS lead.


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« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 10:14:36 AM by Michael »

Offline Michael

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #141 on: December 07, 2018, 11:28:38 AM »
Andddd the FV3 says I get 14” lol
3k NAM says 11”
Canadian says about 10”
GFS says Dusting
Waiting on Euro.

All local mets seem to be going with GFS. All rain in the northern valley.


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Online BRUCE

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #142 on: December 07, 2018, 11:41:14 AM »
I don't even know how the 3k is coming up with its solution.  4 inches of snow, and there is a warm nose and temps in the mid 30's for my area.

I am putting my money on the GFS having the right solution.
think 3k nam. Picking up sleet also ... why showing total 4 inches
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Charles L.

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #143 on: December 07, 2018, 11:44:52 AM »
The WRF-NMM is rather interesting...actually shows parts of west TN/western middle switching to snow at the end of its 12z run.
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Offline Michael

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #144 on: December 07, 2018, 12:23:33 PM »
12z CMC/12z 3k NAM vs EURO/GFS
Who’ll win for Northeast Tennessee?

Edit: Actually, the 00z EURO was similar to today’s 12z CMC. So, GFS seems to be the outlier unless 12z EURO follows GFS lead.


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NE TN update. Canadian, Euro, 3k NAM, GFS Fv3 12z runs all show 10"+ for Morristown to Tri-Cities.
GFS says 0 to maybe a dusting.  ::shaking_finger::

Offline Charles L.

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #145 on: December 07, 2018, 12:31:46 PM »
Both the WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW are in our camps! I’m not sure what their verification is like compared to the other short range models though.
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Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #146 on: December 07, 2018, 01:05:49 PM »
Fear the NW Trend! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Online BRUCE

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #147 on: December 07, 2018, 01:10:50 PM »
Euro trying to show us a little late night love Saturday night .... ;)

Post Merge: December 07, 2018, 02:13:27 PM
Counties back in Arkansas been up graded to winter storm warning...
« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 02:13:27 PM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #148 on: December 07, 2018, 02:28:38 PM »
12k NAM strong again for most of the state.

Online BRUCE

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #149 on: December 07, 2018, 02:35:53 PM »
Wouldn’t suprise me see MEG wsw for Far nw counties ... see soon
Come on severe wx season...

 

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