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Author Topic: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat  (Read 18978 times)

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Offline Charles L.

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #120 on: December 07, 2018, 02:51:39 AM »
Now the NAM is stifling precip totals across KY. BG barely gets a .10 of QPF on the 6z 3km NAM run.

Post Merge: December 07, 2018, 04:12:49 AM
The 6z RGEM is now in our range. It too looks south with the QPF, and also likes freezing rain as the dominant precip type. Nasty.

Going back to the 6z 3km NAM run...it gives my area a nice ~1/2 of ice. No thanks. Saving grace is that temps are marginally freezing, so that should help make accretion harder.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 04:19:45 AM by Charles L. »
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Offline justinmundie

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #121 on: December 07, 2018, 04:55:36 AM »
Dry air monster appears to be making an appearance. Thats why the precip shield has disappeared on the north side.

Virga storm warning for KY
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Offline memphishogfan

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #122 on: December 07, 2018, 05:06:35 AM »
Im just going to say, that 6z NAM can kiss my fat butt with its 1 in of frozen rain then 5 on of snow. Ill kick the dog if that happens.

Offline JayCee

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #123 on: December 07, 2018, 05:30:37 AM »
New GFS running this morning. Unfortunately, it's killed much of the snow in western areas.  It's also really trimmed snowfall on it's north side in southeast KY (because of more IP/ZR).  The only area still showing significant accumulations is from Knoxville eastward, but since all the other snowfall seems to have disappeared, I don't have a lot of confidence in east TN's snow either.  It seems to come in two periods--a switchover to a very heavy snow during the storm, and another round as the system departs.  But that switchover is a big IF.  Will it just effect northeast TN, or actually change to snow all the way down to Knoxville?  I'm not biting right now. 

SREF not promising.  O well, at least it's FRIDAY!   ::guitar::
« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 05:36:37 AM by JayCee »
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Offline Michael

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December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #124 on: December 07, 2018, 05:44:54 AM »
WSW out for upper northeast Tennessee. 4-8 in Kingsport area. Mountains could see 6-15. Will be interesting to see if this holds. Everyone around us to our west/northwest is now showing little to nothing. Were still 48 or so hours out. Well see.


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Offline JayCee

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #125 on: December 07, 2018, 05:45:38 AM »
Wow, so many different model solutions.  NAM holds out hope for many areas of east TN--Knoxville and those north/east.  And even some areas down the valley now, and on the plateau.  It still has some weirdness going on, though.  No snow in parts of the Smokies, and a hole of much less now near Tri-Cities.  Even local mets are saying over a foot in the mountains, despite what the NAM is showing.

Can I pull myself away from this today and live like a normal person?? ::candle::

 Nah, normal is overrated anyway.   ::evillaugh::
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Offline Charles L.

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #126 on: December 07, 2018, 06:16:59 AM »
NWS point forecast for my area gives me 1 of snow and 0.06 of ice.

Not exactly a winter storm, but this plus the snow we got earlier in the week would be nice to see before Christmas!
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #127 on: December 07, 2018, 06:21:46 AM »
Im just going to say, that 6z NAM can kiss my fat butt with its 1 in of frozen rain then 5 on of snow. Ill kick the dog if that happens.




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Offline StormNine

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #128 on: December 07, 2018, 06:46:16 AM »
The dry air is really starting to win out even back west.  Oklahoma City had to cancel the entire northern half of the Winter Storm Watch. 

It looks like the GFS will secure a victory in the model wars with this system. 

Offline Curt

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #129 on: December 07, 2018, 07:26:04 AM »



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Offline Curt

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #130 on: December 07, 2018, 07:27:58 AM »
Now the NAM is stifling precip totals across KY. BG barely gets a .10 of QPF on the 6z 3km NAM run.

Post Merge: December 07, 2018, 04:12:49 AM
The 6z RGEM is now in our range. It too looks south with the QPF, and also likes freezing rain as the dominant precip type. Nasty.

The rgem actually is one of my favorite mesoscale models. It now shows accumulating snow in southern Arkansas along the ULL.

Offline Scot

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #131 on: December 07, 2018, 08:11:19 AM »
From looking at the 12k NAM, it may not even rain North of 40!  3K NAM looks much better!  What is the difference in the two?
« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 08:32:18 AM by Scot »

Offline Eric

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #132 on: December 07, 2018, 08:38:40 AM »
From looking at the 12k NAM, it may not even rain North of 40!  3K NAM looks much better!  What is the difference in the two?

Mainly resolution.  The 3k "sees" at a finer resolution; i.e. can see minute details that the 12k can't.
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Offline Charles L.

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #133 on: December 07, 2018, 08:39:28 AM »
From looking at the 12k NAM, it may not even rain North of 40!  3K NAM looks much better!  What is the difference in the two?

3km still gets precipitation up into KY...12km, as you mentioned, doesnt even get it north of I-40.

Biggest discrepancy between the two I have seen thus far with this system.
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Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #134 on: December 07, 2018, 08:49:39 AM »
Fear the NW Trend! ::rofl:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

 

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