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Author Topic: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat  (Read 18983 times)

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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #90 on: December 06, 2018, 05:13:33 PM »
I hardly ever watch TWC but happened to stop on it. They had a guy from the NWS on talking about the difficulty of this forecast. They are hoping tonightís 0z runs will help. Supposedly they will have better data on the ULL. They have NW Tn with at least .25 of ice.

Offline Curt

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December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #91 on: December 06, 2018, 05:30:20 PM »
I hardly ever watch TWC but happened to stop on it. They had a guy from the NWS on talking about the difficulty of this forecast. They are hoping tonightís 0z runs will help. Supposedly they will have better data on the ULL. They have NW Tn with at least .25 of ice.

Itís interesting- the 850ís on the last frame of the 18z 3k Nam show below zero numbers spreading from west to east across southern TN where the heaviest precip is- thus cooling the column further. Thatís what will be the problem in northern Arkansas where freezing rain may be more of an issue if those donít change. The problem in the Memphis area albeit less northern metro is BL temps which donít support frozen precip at 33-35 regardless of 850ís below 0. Usually an ULL produces better cold air at the surface but geez modeling is really consistent. The last frame of that run is really trying hard to get a snow band going in east Arkansas.
« Last Edit: December 06, 2018, 05:34:55 PM by Curt »

Offline Volduff64

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #92 on: December 06, 2018, 06:18:07 PM »
I donít think I have ever been this uncertain 48 hours out but I believe it will be 33 and rain for Dickson and Nashville with back door snow on Monday if we are lucky.

Offline JayCee

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #93 on: December 06, 2018, 06:55:51 PM »
Probability of 4+ inches of snow.



Not nearly as suppressed as the Euro has been showing lately. 

Post Merge: December 06, 2018, 07:09:12 PM
From WPC:

Quote
Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valley to the Southern Appalachians...
Day 3...

While plenty of differences in the details remain, the 12z models
supported increasing confidence in a significant winter storm for
the southern Appalachians into the Piedmont beginning late Sat and
continuing into Sun.  As the associated shortwave trough moves
east into the lower Mississippi valley, models show a wintry mix
with snow and ice accumulations continuing east from the Ozark
region eastward into the Tennessee and lower Ohio valley Saturday.
 Meanwhile, confluent flow downstream across the Mid Atlantic
region will maintain high pressure and a cold air wedge east of
the mountains.  Deep southwesterly flow ahead of the trough,
supporting strong moisture advection into an area of strong upward
ascent will encourage heavy precipitation, with thermal profiles
supporting snow across the southern Appalachians into the western
Piedmont, with freezing rain further south and east.  WPC Day 3
(ending 00z Mon) probabilities show Slight to Moderate risks for
snow amounts of a foot or more across a good portion of
southwestern Virginia, western North Carolina into Upstate South
Carolina and far eastern Kentucky and Tennessee
, with some
overlapping areas of significant ice probabilities extending
further east across the Carolinas and south into northern Georgia.


While confidence in the finer details is limited, WPC preferred a
solution more in line with the GFS and ECMWF, with less weight
given to the NAM which was along the southern edge of the guidance
with the low track and northern extent of the precipitation shield
late in the period.

Post Merge: December 06, 2018, 07:45:57 PM
Just checking out GFS V3--currently running.  Bulls-eye of heavy snow in eastern Arkansas just nosing into western TN.  Another swath of decent accumulation just northwest of Nashville then running along the KY/TN border, and widespread accumulation across eastern areas (and southeast KY)--starting near Chatty.  Of course, there's western NC...they still win the prize.

I don't know what to think at this point.  This is the model I hope wins it all. 


On the other end of the spectrum--SREF plumes aren't nearly as promising.  Ugh.  I need to find another hobby.   ::rofl::

 
« Last Edit: December 06, 2018, 07:53:59 PM by JayCee »
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Offline mamMATTus

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #94 on: December 06, 2018, 08:19:25 PM »
Stupid storm. This is one of the most annoying in quite some time. I do not envy the real forecasters with this one at all.

Offline Drifter49

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #95 on: December 06, 2018, 08:22:08 PM »
Stupid storm. This is one of the most annoying in quite some time. I do not envy the real forecasters with this one at all.

Itís a forecasterís nightmare for sure. I would definitely hate to have that job.


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Bring on the snow baby!!!

Offline JayCee

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #96 on: December 06, 2018, 08:36:04 PM »
This is a very difficult winter forecast for the whole area, but it's a nightmare for MRX & GSP.  Because of CAD, local topography, and warm air aloft, there could all forms of precipitation falling at once in both regions.  And with all the regional, or "micro" climates, it's nearly impossible to nail down a forecast for just one county, much less the whole CWA.  AND--it's a changing situation.  Every hour some different form of precipitation could be falling.

All I can say is those weather offices better take our lead here at TNWX and do much of their model watching while lit.  O0
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline Michael

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #97 on: December 06, 2018, 08:44:32 PM »
00z NAM. Yes!



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Offline Scot

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #98 on: December 06, 2018, 08:48:19 PM »
00z NAM. Yes!



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Looks like it sucks to me!


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Offline Michael

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #99 on: December 06, 2018, 08:56:49 PM »
Looks like it sucks to me!


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No. Not really. 9+Ē IMBY.


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Offline Scot

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #100 on: December 06, 2018, 08:57:45 PM »
No. Not really. 9+Ē IMBY.


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0 IMBY so it sucks!


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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #101 on: December 06, 2018, 08:58:03 PM »
It definitely muddies the water in my area. It keeps me in the frozen precipitation for the duration. Mostly snow.


Offline Drifter49

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #102 on: December 06, 2018, 09:00:53 PM »
It definitely muddies the water in my area. It keeps me in the frozen precipitation for the duration. Mostly snow.



I was just looking at that. It could be rain, it could be snow or sleet, then you have the dreaded zr to watch for.
This is one forecasters cluster you know what lol


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Offline schneitzeit

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #103 on: December 06, 2018, 09:06:37 PM »
Based on my rigorous investment in model-watching over the past few days, here are my predictions:

Probability of >1" snow:
Memphis: <5%
NW TN: 40%
Jackson: <5%
Clarksville: 30%
Southern KY: 50%
Nashville: 10%
Murfreesboro: <5%
Southern Middle TN: <5%
Upper Plateau: 70%
Chattanooga: <5%
Knoxville: 40%
Eastern KY: 90%
Tri-Cities: 90%

Snowfall thru Tuesday evening (highest to lowest):

Kingsport: 5"
Johnson City: 4.5"
Gatlinburg: 4"
Morristown: 2"
Crossville: 1.2"
Cookeville: 1"
Knoxville: 0.8"
Clarksville: 0.7"
Dyersburg: 0.5"
Nashville: 0.25"
Others: zilch


Offline Drifter49

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Re: December 8-10th 2018 Winter Mix Threat
« Reply #104 on: December 06, 2018, 09:07:53 PM »
Based on my rigorous investment in model-watching over the past few days, here are my predictions:

Probability of >1" snow:
Memphis: <5%
NW TN: 40%
Jackson: <5%
Clarksville: 30%
Southern KY: 50%
Nashville: 10%
Murfreesboro: <5%
Southern Middle TN: <5%
Upper Plateau: 70%
Chattanooga: <5%
Knoxville: 40%
Eastern KY: 90%
Tri-Cities: 90%

Snowfall thru Tuesday evening (highest to lowest):

Kingsport: 5"
Johnson City: 4.5"
Gatlinburg: 4"
Morristown: 2"
Crossville: 1.2"
Cookeville: 1"
Knoxville: 0.8"
Clarksville: 0.7"
Dyersburg: 0.5"
Nashville: 0.25"
Others: zilch

Seems legit


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To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

 

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