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Author Topic: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018  (Read 8211 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« on: November 02, 2018, 12:49:25 PM »



Quote
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1113 AM CDT Fri Nov 02 2018

   Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

   CORRECTED FOR LABEL ON DAY-8 GRAPHIC

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Potential exists for a significant severe event to transpire day 4
   (Monday) into day 5 (Tuesday) mainly from the lower MS Valley into
   the Southeast States. Model solutions have converged and
   demonstrated run to run consistency, depicting significant
   cyclogenesis to commence by Monday evening over the lower MS Valley
   in response to an approaching intense upper jet within base of an
   amplifying shortwave trough. The low is forecast to deepen as it
   lifts northeast into IL overnight with trailing cold front advancing
   through the TN and lower MS valley regions. Richer low-level
   moisture residing over the northern Gulf will advect rapidly
   northward through the warm sector in response to the strengthening
   low-level jet, contributing to destabilization with moderate
   instability possible from east TX into a portion of the Gulf Coast
   states. Severe storms are likely to develop along advancing cold
   front Monday afternoon initially from southeast OK into east TX,
   then spreading into the lower MS Valley and TN Valley regions Monday
   night. Impressive wind profiles with large hodographs and an intense
   upper jet will promote a threat for damaging wind, tornadoes and
   large hail. Severe threat will continue east through portions of the
   Southeast states and Middle Atlantic Tuesday.

   ..Dial.. 11/02/2018

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2018/day4-8_20181102.html

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2018, 02:28:02 PM »
Models are moving timing up a little bit with the Ark/Tn/Ms  area being a target afternoon on Monday with the rest our state being a nocturnal event. Remember that clocks roll back this weekend so we "loose" an hour of daylight.

Offline MSR041933

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2018, 04:07:53 PM »
Saw on Facebook a guy posted that image of the D4-D5 outlooks, and was telling everyone that his “friends at NOAA are very scared this could be a historic outbreak”.i advised him not to fear monger and he  Then tries to tell me I don’t know anything and that he “is trained in this sort of thing..
"The only thing that can stop a BAD guy with a gun is a GOOD guy with a gun"

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2018, 04:35:40 PM »
Saw on Facebook a guy posted that image of the D4-D5 outlooks, and was telling everyone that his “friends at NOAA are very scared this could be a historic outbreak”.i advised him not to fear monger and he  Then tries to tell me I don’t know anything and that he “is trained in this sort of thing..
they need be... things look very ominous for a big one... look for a decent coservative approach day or so... then the up tick wiil sart to surface... look for SPC expand the 30 percent zone in morning update per model runs today

Post Merge: November 02, 2018, 04:37:56 PM
i be ready... im not working monday as now...things hold    i start out toward delta region... work our way towards home... classic situation
« Last Edit: November 02, 2018, 04:37:56 PM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2018, 06:17:35 PM »
Saw on Facebook a guy posted that image of the D4-D5 outlooks, and was telling everyone that his “friends at NOAA are very scared this could be a historic outbreak”.i advised him not to fear monger and he  Then tries to tell me I don’t know anything and that he “is trained in this sort of thing..

Who? This guy needs to be called out. Screenshot?

Offline StormNine

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2018, 06:59:33 PM »
and we gain an hour of morning light. :) Its risky for people to hype this up on social media because it might not even rain its to far out to know if there will be severe weather yet alone an outbreak. Its cold outside right now not really the severe weather feel out there but who knows. Anything can happen we have had tornados in January before. But wait closer to monday before posting social media threats lol. chance for storms is all they need to know now.

There were low in the Teen's a few days before 11/17/2013 in the Ohio Valley.  This system is dynamic enough that it will provide its own moisture return.

The large-scale pattern supports a cool season severe weather event and possible outbreak (broad trough, large warm sector, strong low and mid-level jet).  The severe weather threat will likely extend into Illinois and Indiana and all of Kentucky and Tennessee will at least have some severe threat.  We need to take this one seriously. 

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2018, 07:21:39 PM »
and we gain an hour of morning light. :) Its risky for people to hype this up on social media because it might not even rain its to far out to know if there will be severe weather yet alone an outbreak. Its cold outside right now not really the severe weather feel out there but who knows. Anything can happen we have had tornados in January before. But wait closer to monday before posting social media threats lol. chance for storms is all they need to know now.
do you ever look at weather models?....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2018, 08:16:06 PM »
and we gain an hour of morning light. :) Its risky for people to hype this up on social media because it might not even rain its to far out to know if there will be severe weather yet alone an outbreak. Its cold outside right now not really the severe weather feel out there but who knows. Anything can happen we have had tornados in January before. But wait closer to monday before posting social media threats lol. chance for storms is all they need to know now.

Dude, please try to use better grammar. I'm not trying to be a jerk, but reading run-on sentences like this gives me a headache.

Offline Eric

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2018, 09:31:16 PM »
do you ever look at weather models?....

OMG.

Laughable.

On a more sensible note, I wouldn't put much stock in temps right now.  With a strengthening low pressure system, it's going to draw warmer temps from the Gulf states.  Fall systems are much less dependent upon temps and tend to be dynamically driven.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2018, 09:33:24 PM by Eric »
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Box 100 Wx Lead Forecaster
Lavergne, TN

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2018, 09:50:27 PM »
****

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2018, 09:54:01 PM »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2018, 09:58:29 PM »
****
i could feel those blanks in for u... but I would get banned...  yikes ....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2018, 10:00:48 PM »
Ducking ****

Offline Eric

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2018, 10:10:30 PM »
Ducking ****

So, the wind barbs are going every which a way.  What does that even mean!!?????

#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Montgomery Cos. (@MontCoSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

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Lavergne, TN

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2018, 10:15:59 PM »
So, the wind barbs are going every which a way.  What does that even mean!!?????

Is this a test sir?   ;)  Crossover winds southeast at surface, southwest at 500mb

 

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