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Author Topic: Major October Hurricane Michael  (Read 4338 times)

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Offline cgauxknox

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Major October Hurricane Michael
« on: October 08, 2018, 06:32:19 AM »
We'll probably end up changing the subject name soon once the storm is officially a hurricane, but since we're at TS strength right now we'll start there.  This is a quickly developing storm with potential landfall as either a strong Cat 2 or even weak Cat 3 in around 48 hours.  This isn't a long-track storm coming off the coast of Africa that allows people time to prepare, which may lead to more challenges for evacuations and other preparations.  As of this morning Florida has already declared a state of emergency. 

Not to be forgotten, the current track takes this storm across the Carolinas after landfall on the Gulf coast.  It shouldn't be anything near the rainfall they saw from Florence, but with so many areas still working to dry out from that storm the last thing they need is another round of tropical rainfall.  This may be one where the real story is on the opposite coast from the landfall location.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2018, 11:32:11 AM by Thundersnow »

Offline NashRugger

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Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2018, 09:55:45 AM »
Officially a hurricane as of the 11am EDT advisory. Centerline of the path is still Tyndall AFB/Mexico Beach in Bay County.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2018, 11:34:14 AM »
Forecast to be a major hurricane (cat 3) by tomorrow evening, with another day out in the Gulf before making landfall some time Wednesday...

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2018, 12:37:13 PM »
Latest pass recon found a pressure of 978 mb. So this thing may still be rapidly strengthening.
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Offline JayCee

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Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2018, 12:40:27 PM »
Wow, we really may be looking at another Opal. 
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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2018, 02:27:02 PM »
Mandatory evacuations have already been ordered.  This is one that may be very scary when we wake up tomorrow morning.

Offline joemomma

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Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2018, 03:05:05 PM »
Fantastic.  I have to travel to Georgia for work tomorrow morning, not returning until Thursday.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2018, 03:40:42 PM »
Panama City looks to be bullseye at the moment.

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Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2018, 06:15:38 PM »
The primary threat from Michael is probably going to be Wind due to its rapid strength and fast motion.  Significant surge will be a threat near and to the right of landfall as well.  The Carolinas don't need the extra rain that Michael will bring.

The  Euro shows 50-60+ across its entire path from landfall all the way to the Coastal Carolinas. Even 50MPH winds will take down a lot of trees, loss debris, and powerlines in the Carolinas.  There will be a lot of power outages with this one and a swath of Florida and Southern Georgia may have Icestorm 1994 style power outages.     

Offline Susan

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Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2018, 07:13:54 PM »
Models appear to still be moving the landfall west.  Looks like 30A is in the bullseye now.

Read that wrong, moved east!
« Last Edit: October 08, 2018, 10:08:42 PM by Susan »
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Offline mempho

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Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
« Reply #10 on: October 09, 2018, 04:34:21 AM »
The primary threat from Michael is probably going to be Wind due to its rapid strength and fast motion.  Significant surge will be a threat near and to the right of landfall as well.  The Carolinas don't need the extra rain that Michael will bring.

The  Euro shows 50-60+ across its entire path from landfall all the way to the Coastal Carolinas. Even 50MPH winds will take down a lot of trees, loss debris, and powerlines in the Carolinas.  There will be a lot of power outages with this one and a swath of Florida and Southern Georgia may have Icestorm 1994 style power outages.   
Something to watch for is what the peak intensity is-  that will tell the story regarding surge.  Opal got to 150mph just hours before landfall.  While the storm "only" was 115mph at landfall, the surge was unable to subside.

Let's contrast that with Charley, which hit the Florida west coast (also a surge prone area) at peak intensity.  The surge was not as much of a component since the deep water didn't get piled onto the continental shelf because Charley wasn't at peak intensity yet.  Harvey might also go into thris category.

Surge is a function of fetch (large eyes produce higher values), intensity in the hours leading up to and at the time the storm arrives on the continental shelf, topography of the shoreline, and landfall intensity.

If a given storm arrives on the continental shelf at peak intensity with a significant fetch, it will pile huge amounts of water onto the continental shelf.  If it makes landfall within a reasonable time and maintains a reasonably high intensity (even if it appears to collapse relative to peak intensity - Katrina, Opal, Ivan could all fit this bill), then there will be a large surge given a large enough shelf.

The large shelf is a larger "staging area" for the storm to pile up water and that's why the northern GOMEX and the Florida west coast are very surge prone (as opposed to the Florida Gold Coast and Keys).

Here's the good thing with Michael thusfar-- peak intensity is "only" forecast to be 120 (not 150 or higher) and that peak may well occur when the storm has already come upon the continental shelf.

The bad news is that could be off the table if we see a period of rapid intensification today and that's not something I'd pull off the table as the core is now well organized and is forecast to go into an area of reduced shear.  There is at least some modeling and climo that would argue in that direction.

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Offline Charles L.

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Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
« Reply #11 on: October 09, 2018, 06:52:56 AM »
Michael now up to 100 mph Cat 2. Latest pass is showing even lower pressure drops, so this thing isnít slowing down.
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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
« Reply #12 on: October 09, 2018, 07:08:35 AM »
I had concerns yesterday about the potential strength of this storm when the interaction with the west end of Cuba didn't seem to slow it down, which usually happens when you see even part of a storm cross land.  All the reports I'm seeing this morning expect it to be a landfalling Cat 3 sometime on Wednesday.  In a way we're very lucky that it's moving so quickly so it doesn't have more time over the Gulf to strengthen.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
« Reply #13 on: October 09, 2018, 10:00:00 AM »
110 mph as of latest advisory... on the verge of reaching Cat 3 strength.


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Offline Susan

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Re: Major October Hurricane Michael
« Reply #14 on: October 09, 2018, 10:39:24 AM »
I am concerned he is not going to make that eastward turn.  Areas west of Destin have not evacuated, last minute evacs will be difficult as most will have to cross bridges and it may to late.
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