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Author Topic: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)  (Read 54099 times)

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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #570 on: November 09, 2018, 07:04:15 AM »
Both the new and old GFS came in hot this morning for west Tn. 3 to 4 inches.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #571 on: November 09, 2018, 07:07:01 AM »
November 1976 ( I was a kid back then) had a light snow event mid month state wide followed by a sleet event with an arctic front to close the month. I do remember being able to sled in the latter event. 76-77 is actually a decent analog year with similar enso state (Modoki El Niño).

It seems just based on my personal experience, that winters that can get cold starting in November are usually over producers at some point with winter precip. Doesn’t guarantee it but seems more likely than those that torched until December.

As you said, it doesn't guarantee a colder winter, but November can be a sign of things to come by January.  Even the winter we all love to talk about (I shouldn't even have to say what year at this point) had a very cold November that lasted into the first week of December when an accumulating snow fell in Kentucky--heavily in some areas.  We torched big-time for the rest of December until the New Year, but the Arctic gates swung wide open in January.  No, I'm not saying this winter we be anything like that, but I have seen more winters that were cold biased after a November with powerful cold outbreaks, than were skewed warmer. 

"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #572 on: November 09, 2018, 07:13:37 AM »
Both the new and old GFS came in hot this morning for west Tn. 3 to 4 inches.

The CMC was a solid hit too. Again, I would just be thrilled to see snow fall!
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Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #573 on: November 09, 2018, 08:08:39 AM »
Heavy rain, dark skies, and temperatures dropping into the 40's today.  Certainly feels like winter pressing in. 

Temperatures continue to drop in the forecast.  Now down to 26 for a Sunday morning low. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #574 on: November 09, 2018, 08:22:52 AM »
The next few mornings may be a good opportunity to see some "frost flowers" in vegetation low to the ground. That's where still actively growing/green ground plants rupture in freezing conditions, and the fluid from the stems bust out and freeze, making some nice little ice formations on the ground. You'll see the effect best in unmowed areas.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2018, 08:25:09 AM by Thundersnow »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #575 on: November 09, 2018, 09:21:40 AM »
Early indications has thanksgiving weeks stormy... just something watch since it’s a big travel holiday ... and at this stage ... not talking bout winter storm either ...normally I wouldn’t be looking this far out .. but thanksgiving big time ...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Michael

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #576 on: November 09, 2018, 10:24:25 AM »
12z GFS still showing some white stuff for at least western 2/3 of state on Tuesday. Just coming into NAM's range. 12z NAM h84 slightly south and east of 12z GFS. Definitely something to watch as models have continued to show some snow for Tuesday for several runs now. Will be interesting to see how Euro matches up with GFS and NAM. I have not seen CMC yet.

Edit: 12z CMC almost lock and step with 12z GFS. Maybe slightly more robust.

Looks like GFS/CMC are developing a low in the gulf and running it up the coast, inland. Definitely starting to get interesting, especially for you mid/west tn folks.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2018, 10:28:28 AM by Michael »

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #577 on: November 09, 2018, 11:11:41 AM »
It's fun to see the models continue to advertise some winter fun next week. Headed to Knoxville in the morning for the football game but I will be checking in while there keeping up with the model runs. ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #578 on: November 09, 2018, 12:29:08 PM »
It's fun to see the models continue to advertise some winter fun next week. Headed to Knoxville in the morning for the football game but I will be checking in while there keeping up with the model runs. ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

Safe travels to our side of the state.   8)
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Michael

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #579 on: November 09, 2018, 01:28:50 PM »
Tuesday's system...
12z Euro has low developing in gulf, becoming a closed off Low around New Jersey (inland). Snow is further west than GFS/CMC/NAM. The GFS/CMC has low developing in gulf, becoming closed off Low just off southeast coast of VA. Thus, snow is further east. NAM is just starting to get in on this, but appears to be following GFS/NAM.

So...battle of the models? At his point, it appears some parts of TN will see snow on Tuesday. Just how much of TN sees it is still TBD. At least we got something fun to watch, and it's just getting into mid November!  ::popcorn::

Offline BALLPARK

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #580 on: November 09, 2018, 01:56:36 PM »
Be a great start to the winter season if we can cash in. ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #581 on: November 09, 2018, 04:25:10 PM »
18Z GFS run further represents a trend toward an I-44 storm.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #582 on: November 09, 2018, 04:29:32 PM »
18Z GFS run further represents a trend toward an I-44 storm.
18z . Throw it out.  ::rofl::

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #583 on: November 09, 2018, 04:31:05 PM »
18z . Throw it out.  ::rofl::

Well, it looks good for Dyersburg at least.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #584 on: November 09, 2018, 05:05:24 PM »
Hwy 441 at Newfound Gap will be closing shortly as temperatures are expected to plummet to near 20, and a light coating of snow could fall on the freezing roadway overnight. 
« Last Edit: November 09, 2018, 05:10:50 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

 

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