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Author Topic: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)  (Read 47928 times)

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Offline Curt

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #555 on: November 08, 2018, 11:22:18 AM »
12z GFS much more robust with LP coming out of the gulf and interacting with arctic air at the surface. Puts down 2-3 inches from around Memphis to Cumberland Plateau.

12Z CMC much more supportive of Euro with snow back into Oklahoma and a brief changeover in much of Tennessee to flurries.

0z Euro- snow in Oklahoma/MO/ KS and basically little if any changeover anywhere in TN. We will see if reverses course today. Doubt it though.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #556 on: November 08, 2018, 11:36:00 AM »
I noticed the intellicast color-coded regional p-type map is showing blue for the first time this season this morning in southern IL (see front page). My guess is that's virga or melting before reaching the ground, but at least that's something.  ;)
and it begins......
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #557 on: November 08, 2018, 12:28:37 PM »
12z Euro took a baby step but targets SE MO before the whole thing kinda fizzles. No snow anywhere in TN. LP too far west for anyone here. It did move it further east so Northern Arkansas and Southern MO def changeover.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #558 on: November 08, 2018, 12:54:48 PM »
And the growing season comes to an end.

Quote
Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
Issued by National Weather Service Nashville TN
1104 AM EST Thu Nov 8 2018

...Freezing Temperatures Expected Saturday Morning...

.Behind tomorrow`s rain and frontal passage, a very cold air mass
will bring sub-freezing temperatures into East Tennessee. Saturday
morning lows will fall below freezing for everyone, but many on
the Cumberland Plateau and in the mountains of East TN will see
temperatures plummet into the low to middle 20s.


EDIT:  Also, under sunny skies, highs on Saturday are only forecast to reach the lower 40's.  That's January-like temperatures in November.   
« Last Edit: November 08, 2018, 01:19:29 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #559 on: November 08, 2018, 02:17:45 PM »
The 12Z GFS is an ominous prelude for an I-44 snowstorm. We will get the rainy side of this one.

Online Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #560 on: November 08, 2018, 02:46:12 PM »
It will probably be a I-44 special if it comes together, but some in Tennessee may see some backside stuff. That is the most likely scenario this early in the year, but surprises have happened before. Maybe at least the boothill and Arkansas may score. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #561 on: November 08, 2018, 02:57:20 PM »
Maybe at least the boothill and Arkansas may score. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

Yuck. Almost worse than North Carolina getting the snow.

North Carolina will always be remembered by Northerners as the state where THIS happened: [ Guests cannot view attachments ]

Online Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #562 on: November 08, 2018, 03:05:29 PM »
I was just thinking about the closest area to our northwest where the odds probably go up for this type of system so early in the year. Hopefully we will see some flakes fly, anything more next week will be a bonus. But I am all for a good sneak attack. Either way lots of winter left, and a snow even being mentioned this early in the year is a bonus.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #563 on: November 08, 2018, 03:07:30 PM »
12z Euro took a baby step but targets SE MO before the whole thing kinda fizzles. No snow anywhere in TN. LP too far west for anyone here. It did move it further east so Northern Arkansas and Southern MO def changeover.
What little that I looked at it the new GFS was showing something similar. It was in between the Euro and GFS. That was yesterday. I have not looked today.

Offline Beth

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #564 on: November 08, 2018, 06:44:47 PM »
I seriously doubt it will be more than just a few token flurries here if that.  But I do remember one year in November in the mid 90s we had some steady flurries and my Mom(rip) and I had one of the best garage sales ever.  Inside of a my warm basement. 😊

Offline Curt

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #565 on: November 08, 2018, 06:54:52 PM »
18z GEFS has about 15 out of 20 members showing snow Monday night at Memphis with a mean of 1/2 . I would say unless there’s a drastic change seeing a few snowflakes in the air is a decent possibility.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #566 on: November 08, 2018, 07:09:33 PM »
If this storm is still around on Sunday, I'll have higher hopes someone will see accumulating snow. Until then, this is nothing more than just interesting.

Online Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #567 on: November 08, 2018, 07:30:43 PM »
I seriously doubt it will be more than just a few token flurries here if that.  But I do remember one year in November in the mid 90s we had some steady flurries and my Mom(rip) and I had one of the best garage sales ever.  Inside of a my warm basement. 😊
Probably 1995, it snowed on the 9th of November that year. About a inch on the ground here by nightfall, a little bit was still on the ground the next morning but it was all gone by noon. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

Offline Curt

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #568 on: November 08, 2018, 09:02:06 PM »
November 1976 ( I was a kid back then) had a light snow event mid month state wide followed by a sleet event with an arctic front to close the month. I do remember being able to sled in the latter event. 76-77 is actually a decent analog year with similar enso state (Modoki El Niño).

It seems just based on my personal experience, that winters that can get cold starting in November are usually over producers at some point with winter precip. Doesn’t guarantee it but seems more likely than those that torched until December.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #569 on: November 09, 2018, 06:36:18 AM »
It feels like a somewhat classic November day in Knoxville today.  Dark, raining, the temps will start dropping at about lunchtime, and tomorrow looks like the coldest day we've seen since maybe March.  I hope everybody can stay in tomorrow and enjoy a hot fire and comfort food.

 

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