* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement

* Current Watches/Warnings/Advisories for TN - Click the (+) Icon to the Right to see them ------>


Author Topic: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)  (Read 34095 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline schneitzeit

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 727
  • Location: Knoxville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 545
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #570 on: November 08, 2018, 02:57:20 PM »
Maybe at least the boothill and Arkansas may score. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

Yuck. Almost worse than North Carolina getting the snow.

North Carolina will always be remembered by Northerners as the state where THIS happened: [ Guests cannot view attachments ]

Offline Clarksville Snowman

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,991
  • Location: Woodlawn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1289
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #571 on: November 08, 2018, 03:05:29 PM »
I was just thinking about the closest area to our northwest where the odds probably go up for this type of system so early in the year. Hopefully we will see some flakes fly, anything more next week will be a bonus. But I am all for a good sneak attack. Either way lots of winter left, and a snow even being mentioned this early in the year is a bonus.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

  • Global Moderator
  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,920
  • Location: North of 40
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 505
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #572 on: November 08, 2018, 03:07:30 PM »
12z Euro took a baby step but targets SE MO before the whole thing kinda fizzles. No snow anywhere in TN. LP too far west for anyone here. It did move it further east so Northern Arkansas and Southern MO def changeover.
What little that I looked at it the new GFS was showing something similar. It was in between the Euro and GFS. That was yesterday. I have not looked today.

Offline Beth

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,203
  • Location: Dickson
  • Snowbird
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1084
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #573 on: November 08, 2018, 06:44:47 PM »
I seriously doubt it will be more than just a few token flurries here if that.  But I do remember one year in November in the mid 90s we had some steady flurries and my Mom(rip) and I had one of the best garage sales ever.  Inside of a my warm basement. 😊

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,606
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 292
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #574 on: November 08, 2018, 06:54:52 PM »
18z GEFS has about 15 out of 20 members showing snow Monday night at Memphis with a mean of 1/2 . I would say unless there’s a drastic change seeing a few snowflakes in the air is a decent possibility.

Offline schneitzeit

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 727
  • Location: Knoxville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 545
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #575 on: November 08, 2018, 07:09:33 PM »
If this storm is still around on Sunday, I'll have higher hopes someone will see accumulating snow. Until then, this is nothing more than just interesting.

Offline Clarksville Snowman

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,991
  • Location: Woodlawn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1289
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #576 on: November 08, 2018, 07:30:43 PM »
I seriously doubt it will be more than just a few token flurries here if that.  But I do remember one year in November in the mid 90s we had some steady flurries and my Mom(rip) and I had one of the best garage sales ever.  Inside of a my warm basement. 😊
Probably 1995, it snowed on the 9th of November that year. About a inch on the ground here by nightfall, a little bit was still on the ground the next morning but it was all gone by noon. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,606
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 292
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #577 on: November 08, 2018, 09:02:06 PM »
November 1976 ( I was a kid back then) had a light snow event mid month state wide followed by a sleet event with an arctic front to close the month. I do remember being able to sled in the latter event. 76-77 is actually a decent analog year with similar enso state (Modoki El Niño).

It seems just based on my personal experience, that winters that can get cold starting in November are usually over producers at some point with winter precip. Doesn’t guarantee it but seems more likely than those that torched until December.

Offline cgauxknox

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 484
  • Location: Knoxville
  • KM4UMK
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 291
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #578 on: November 09, 2018, 06:36:18 AM »
It feels like a somewhat classic November day in Knoxville today.  Dark, raining, the temps will start dropping at about lunchtime, and tomorrow looks like the coldest day we've seen since maybe March.  I hope everybody can stay in tomorrow and enjoy a hot fire and comfort food.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

  • Global Moderator
  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,920
  • Location: North of 40
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 505
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #579 on: November 09, 2018, 07:04:15 AM »
Both the new and old GFS came in hot this morning for west Tn. 3 to 4 inches.

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,037
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 900
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #580 on: November 09, 2018, 07:07:01 AM »
November 1976 ( I was a kid back then) had a light snow event mid month state wide followed by a sleet event with an arctic front to close the month. I do remember being able to sled in the latter event. 76-77 is actually a decent analog year with similar enso state (Modoki El Niño).

It seems just based on my personal experience, that winters that can get cold starting in November are usually over producers at some point with winter precip. Doesn’t guarantee it but seems more likely than those that torched until December.

As you said, it doesn't guarantee a colder winter, but November can be a sign of things to come by January.  Even the winter we all love to talk about (I shouldn't even have to say what year at this point) had a very cold November that lasted into the first week of December when an accumulating snow fell in Kentucky--heavily in some areas.  We torched big-time for the rest of December until the New Year, but the Arctic gates swung wide open in January.  No, I'm not saying this winter we be anything like that, but I have seen more winters that were cold biased after a November with powerful cold outbreaks, than were skewed warmer. 

"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Charles L.

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,887
  • Location: Macon County, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1804
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #581 on: November 09, 2018, 07:13:37 AM »
Both the new and old GFS came in hot this morning for west Tn. 3 to 4 inches.

The CMC was a solid hit too. Again, I would just be thrilled to see snow fall!
Mobile chat link:

http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

SumnerSevereWx and MaconSevereWx #tSpotter Coordinator

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,037
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 900
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #582 on: November 09, 2018, 08:08:39 AM »
Heavy rain, dark skies, and temperatures dropping into the 40's today.  Certainly feels like winter pressing in. 

Temperatures continue to drop in the forecast.  Now down to 26 for a Sunday morning low. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 10,690
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #583 on: November 09, 2018, 08:22:52 AM »
The next few mornings may be a good opportunity to see some "frost flowers" in vegetation low to the ground. That's where still actively growing/green ground plants rupture in freezing conditions, and the fluid from the stems bust out and freeze, making some nice little ice formations on the ground. You'll see the effect best in unmowed areas.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2018, 08:25:09 AM by Thundersnow »

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,274
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1175
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #584 on: November 09, 2018, 09:21:40 AM »
Early indications has thanksgiving weeks stormy... just something watch since it’s a big travel holiday ... and at this stage ... not talking bout winter storm either ...normally I wouldn’t be looking this far out .. but thanksgiving big time ...
Come on severe wx season...

 

Advertisement