* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement

* Current Watches/Warnings/Advisories for TN - Click the (+) Icon to the Right to see them ------>


Author Topic: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)  (Read 34105 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,666
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 111
Re: Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #555 on: November 07, 2018, 06:16:49 PM »
I received about a half-inch of snow in 2014.  Areas to my north had about 2-4 inches.  West TN had that ULL in November 2011 which happened to be that areas only snow for the 2011-12 season.  1950, 1951, and 1966 seem to be the big hitters in November.  We have even had some very rare snow events in October (1925 had 1 to 6 inches of snow from I-40 to the Ohio River and 1993 had measurable snow just before Halloween).   

Offline schneitzeit

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 727
  • Location: Knoxville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 545
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #556 on: November 07, 2018, 10:24:17 PM »
GFS is still holding on to our first lil' fantasy storm.

Offline Clarksville Snowman

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,991
  • Location: Woodlawn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1289
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #557 on: November 07, 2018, 11:02:32 PM »
00z says I am back! LOL! ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 10,690
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #558 on: November 08, 2018, 05:06:27 AM »
OHX not impressed with next week’s snow chance:

Quote
For snow lovers out there,
this is nothing to throw a party about. In fact, the highest
PoPs/greatest moisture availability will be across the eastern
two-thirds of the CWA Tuesday morning, while the coldest
temperatures will still be entering the northwest third of the
area. In other words, the precipitation and cold air needed for
the frozen stuff will struggle to overlap. To be consistent,
however, did leave the mention of light rain/snow Tuesday morning
for areas generally along/west of I-65 and along/north of I-40.
This is still 5 to 6 days away, so expect more changes to this as
time draws nearer.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,606
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 292
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #559 on: November 08, 2018, 07:13:39 AM »
OHX not impressed with next week’s snow chance:


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Probably shouldn’t be impressed. The euro is incredibly consistent with a fairly major Texas panhandle snow storm which lightens up but heads up I-44. It does being enough moisture for a changeover into the West half of Tn- and when I say changeover it’s just flurries.

The inconsistent GFS latest run has snow in LA and Jackson MS.

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,037
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 900
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #560 on: November 08, 2018, 07:25:48 AM »
GFS playing games early this year.  In any event, I'll be happy with backside flurries in November.   Flurries in fall is flippin' fantastic for this far south folks. 

EDIT:  Even the "new and improved" version of the GFS has enough snow coming down to coat the ground in parts of mid/east TN next Tuesday/Wednesday.  Something to watch, at least.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2018, 07:56:28 AM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Charles L.

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,887
  • Location: Macon County, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1804
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #561 on: November 08, 2018, 08:06:19 AM »
GFS playing games early this year.  In any event, I'll be happy with backside flurries in November.   Flurries in fall is flippin' fantastic for this far south folks. 

EDIT:  Even the "new and improved" version of the GFS has enough snow coming down to coat the ground in parts of mid/east TN next Tuesday/Wednesday.  Something to watch, at least.

Same. I will be happy just to see it fly in the air pre-Thanksgiving!
Mobile chat link:

http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

SumnerSevereWx and MaconSevereWx #tSpotter Coordinator

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 10,690
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #562 on: November 08, 2018, 09:23:21 AM »
I noticed the intellicast color-coded regional p-type map is showing blue for the first time this season this morning in southern IL (see front page). My guess is that's virga or melting before reaching the ground, but at least that's something.  ;)

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,274
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1175
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #563 on: November 08, 2018, 10:47:40 AM »
Wait... no comments on the 12z gfs yet? ::snowman:: y’all. R slipping already lol
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,606
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 292
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #564 on: November 08, 2018, 11:22:18 AM »
12z GFS much more robust with LP coming out of the gulf and interacting with arctic air at the surface. Puts down 2-3 inches from around Memphis to Cumberland Plateau.

12Z CMC much more supportive of Euro with snow back into Oklahoma and a brief changeover in much of Tennessee to flurries.

0z Euro- snow in Oklahoma/MO/ KS and basically little if any changeover anywhere in TN. We will see if reverses course today. Doubt it though.

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,274
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1175
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #565 on: November 08, 2018, 11:36:00 AM »
I noticed the intellicast color-coded regional p-type map is showing blue for the first time this season this morning in southern IL (see front page). My guess is that's virga or melting before reaching the ground, but at least that's something.  ;)
and it begins......
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,606
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 292
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #566 on: November 08, 2018, 12:28:37 PM »
12z Euro took a baby step but targets SE MO before the whole thing kinda fizzles. No snow anywhere in TN. LP too far west for anyone here. It did move it further east so Northern Arkansas and Southern MO def changeover.

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,037
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 900
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #567 on: November 08, 2018, 12:54:48 PM »
And the growing season comes to an end.

Quote
Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
Issued by National Weather Service Nashville TN
1104 AM EST Thu Nov 8 2018

...Freezing Temperatures Expected Saturday Morning...

.Behind tomorrow`s rain and frontal passage, a very cold air mass
will bring sub-freezing temperatures into East Tennessee. Saturday
morning lows will fall below freezing for everyone, but many on
the Cumberland Plateau and in the mountains of East TN will see
temperatures plummet into the low to middle 20s.


EDIT:  Also, under sunny skies, highs on Saturday are only forecast to reach the lower 40's.  That's January-like temperatures in November.   
« Last Edit: November 08, 2018, 01:19:29 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline schneitzeit

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 727
  • Location: Knoxville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 545
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #568 on: November 08, 2018, 02:17:45 PM »
The 12Z GFS is an ominous prelude for an I-44 snowstorm. We will get the rainy side of this one.

Offline Clarksville Snowman

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,991
  • Location: Woodlawn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1289
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #569 on: November 08, 2018, 02:46:12 PM »
It will probably be a I-44 special if it comes together, but some in Tennessee may see some backside stuff. That is the most likely scenario this early in the year, but surprises have happened before. Maybe at least the boothill and Arkansas may score. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

 

Advertisement